Deficit Attention Disorder: Partisanship, Issue Importance and Concern About Government Overspending

Political action and electoral behavior often stem from a conviction that an issue is important. Yet despite a growing literature on partisan bias, it remains unclear whether partisan attachment also affects the perceived importance of various issues. We propose a theory of partisan-motivated issue attention (PMIA), wherein citizens satisfy partisan instincts by shifting the perceived importance of an issue. We apply our theory to an issue involving a fundamental tool of the federal government-the power to deficit-spend-and test the hypothesis that partisans' concern about government overspending significantly changes depending on which party presides over deficit-spending. Leveraging pre-registered experimental and observational studies, we find strong support for this hypothesis among both Republicans and Democrats. Lastly, using text analytical methods, we also find evidence of PMIA in televised partisan media. Our study thus demonstrates that putative concern about deficit-spending contains a sizable partisan component and, more broadly, uncovers an additional means by which partisan bias guides citizens' attitude formation on policy-relevant issues in the United States.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11109-022-09783-5.

In sickness and in debt: The COVID-19 impact on sovereign credit risk

The COVID-19 pandemic provides a unique setting in which to evaluate the importance of a country's fiscal capacity in explaining the relation between economic growth shocks and sovereign default risk. For a sample of 30 developed countries, we find a positive and significant sensitivity of sovereign default risk to the intensity of the virus's spread for fiscally constrained governments. Supporting the fiscal channel, we confirm the results for Eurozone countries and U.S. states, for which monetary policy can be held constant. Our analysis suggests that financial markets penalize sovereigns with low fiscal space, impairing their resilience to external shocks.

Benchmarking in Academic Physical Therapy: A Multicenter Trial Using the PT-GQ Survey

OBJECTIVE

Academic physical therapy has no universal metrics by which educational programs can measure outcomes, limiting their ability to benchmark to their own historical performance, to peer institutions, or to other health care professions. The PT-Graduation Questionnaire (GQ) survey, adapted from the Association of American Medical Colleges' GQ, addresses this gap by offering both inter-professional insight and fine-scale assessment of physical therapist education. This study reports the first wave of findings from an ongoing multi-site trial of the PT-GQ among diverse academic physical therapy programs, including (1) benchmarks for academic physical therapy, and (2) a comparison of the physical therapist student experience to medical education benchmarks.

METHODS

Thirty-four doctor of physical therapy (DPT) programs (13.2% nationwide sample) administered the online survey to DPT graduates during the 2019 to 2020 academic year. PT-GQ and Association of American Medical Colleges data were contrasted via Welch's unequal-variance t test and Hedges g (effect size).

RESULTS

A total of 1025 respondents participated in the study (response rate: 63.9%). The average survey duration was 31.8 minutes. Overall educational satisfaction was comparable with medicine, and respondents identified areas of curricular strength (eg, anatomy) and weakness (eg, pharmacology). DPT respondents provided higher ratings of faculty professionalism than medicine, lower rates of student mistreatment, and a lesser impact of within-program diversity on their training. One-third of respondents were less than "satisfied" with student mental health services. DPT respondents reported significantly higher exhaustion but lower disengagement than medical students, along with lower tolerance for ambiguity. Of DPT respondents who reported educational debt, one-third reported debt exceeding $150,000, the threshold above which the DPT degree loses economic power.

CONCLUSIONS

These academic benchmarks, using the PT-GQ, provided insight into physical therapist education and identified differences between physical therapist and medical student perceptions.

IMPACT

This ongoing trial will establish a comprehensive set of benchmarks to better understand academic physical therapy outcomes.

Financial Considerations II: Loans, Debt Management, Saving, and Investing

The financial considerations of becoming a physician are often not fully understood or appreciated until after residency and fellowship training. Once training is complete, physicians face a combination of increased financial rewards mixed with significant, and seemingly overwhelming, financial responsibilities, often with limited financial knowledge or understanding. Appropriately managing debt obligations, living expenses, saving for retirement, children's education, and establishing financial safety nets through savings, investments, and insurance are critical. This article is a starting point to provide the new physician with an introduction into some of those financial considerations, to both encourage further learning and promote successful financial decisions.

Landfall After the Perfect Storm: Cohort Differences in the Relationship Between Debt and Risk of Heart Attack

Analyses of the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) between 1992 and 2014 compare the relationship between different levels and forms of debt and heart attack risk trajectories across four cohorts. Although all cohorts experienced growing household debt, including the increase of both secured and unsecured debt, they nevertheless encountered different economic opportunity structures and crises at sensitive times in their life courses, with implications for heart attack risk trajectories. Results from frailty hazards models reveal that unsecured debt is associated with increased risk of heart attack across all cohorts. Higher levels of housing debt, however, predict higher rates of heart attack among only the earlier cohorts. Heart attack risk trajectories for Baby Boomers with high levels of housing debt are lower than those of same-aged peers with no housing debt. Thus, the relationship between debt and heart attack varies by level and form of debt across cohorts but distinguishes Baby Boomer cohorts based on their diverse exposures to volatile housing market conditions over the sensitive household formation period of the life course.

Financial Toxicity in Breast Reconstruction: A National Survey of Women Who have Undergone Breast Reconstruction After Mastectomy

BACKGROUND

Despite awareness regarding financial toxicity in breast cancer care, little is known about the financial strain associated with breast reconstruction. This study aims to describe financial toxicity and identify factors independently associated with financial toxicity for women pursuing post-mastectomy breast reconstruction.

METHODS

A 33-item electronic survey was distributed to members of the Love Research Army. Women over 18 years of age and at least 1 year after post-mastectomy breast reconstruction were invited to participate. The primary outcome of interest was self-reported financial toxicity due to breast reconstruction, while secondary outcomes of interest were patient-reported out-of-pocket expenses and impact of financial toxicity on surgical decision making.

RESULTS

In total, 922 women were included (mean age 58.6 years, standard deviation 10.3 years); 216 women (23.8%) reported financial toxicity from reconstruction. These women had significantly greater out-of-pocket medical expenses. When compared with women who did not experience financial toxicity, those who did were more likely to have debt due to reconstruction (50.9% vs. 3.2%, p < 0.001). Younger age, lower annual household income, greater out-of-pocket expenses, and a postoperative major complication were independently associated with an increased risk for financial toxicity. If faced with the same decision, women experiencing financial toxicity were more likely to decide against reconstruction (p < 0.001) compared with women not experiencing financial toxicity.

CONCLUSIONS

Nearly one in four women experienced financial toxicity from breast reconstruction. Women who reported higher levels of financial toxicity were more likely to change their decisions about surgery. Identified factors predictive of financial toxicity could guide preoperative discussions to inform decision making that mitigates undesired financial decline.

Trajectories of unsecured debt and health at midlife

BACKGROUND

Unsecured debt - debt not tied to an asset - is a financial stressor that undermines health, but prior research has not investigated relationships between group-based trajectories of unsecured debt and pain and disability at midlife.

METHODS

US respondents of the National Longitudinal Study of Youth-1979 cohort reported unsecured debt and income between ages 28-40. We used these measures to identify group-based trajectories of unsecured debt and unsecured debt-to-income ratio. We then used trajectory membership to predict three pain and disability-related health outcomes at age 50, adjusting for lagged health and other covariates.

RESULTS

Group-based trajectory models divided the sample of 7850 respondents into 6 unsecured debt trajectories and 5 unsecured debt-to-income trajectories. In fully adjusted unsecured debt models, compared to people with constant low debt, those who paid down debt over time, carried constant debt, experienced debt cycling, or accumulated debt later in life were more likely to report pain interference with activities or joint pain or stiffness at age 50 (pain interference ORs ranging from 1.33 to 1.76; joint pain or stiffness ORs ranging from 1.27 to 1.45). In fully adjusted unsecured debt-to-income models, compared to those with constant low debt, those with constant high debt or accumulating debt later in life were more likely to report pain interference or joint pain or stiffness (pain interference ORs ranging from 1.30 to 1.91; joint pain or stiffness ORs ranging from 1.19 to 1.33).

CONCLUSION

The amount, timing, and duration of unsecured debt accumulation and repayment have important health implications and may exacerbate midlife health inequalities.

Divorce, health, and socioeconomic status: An agenda for psychological science

This brief review article discusses marital dissolution and health with a focus on two specific themes. First, we introduce and discuss the search for plausible causal pathways that link the end of marriage to distal health outcomes. Second, we suggest that the socioeconomic status disruptions that follow divorce represent a plausible causal pathway and emphasize the need for more psychological science in this area of study. Although there is substantial literature that demonstrates that divorced adults, especially divorced women, experience significant financial disruptions, the research in this area remains broad and largely the province of family sociology and demography. Research is needed to better understand adults' psychological and behavioral responses to changes in their financial situation after the end of marriage.

Debt and financial market contagion

We empirically investigate why financial crises spread from one country to another. For our analysis, we develop a new multiple-channel test of financial market contagion and construct indices of crisis severity in equity markets in order to examine how the transmission of shocks across countries can be related to direct linkages between countries or to common characteristics. Based on network analysis with our proposed multiple-channel test for crises between 2007 and 2021, we find that the Great Recession is the most pervasive across countries, followed by the European sovereign debt crisis and the recent COVID pandemic, with the subprime mortgage crisis being the least pervasive. Our main finding is that similar public, private and external debt characteristics are particularly helpful in explaining the transmission of financial shocks during crises. Fiscal deficits appear more important than current account deficits, while stage of economic development matters more than regional linkages, but none of these indicators is as important as debt.

A Snapshot of Current US Medical School Off-Ramp Programs-a Way to Leave Medical School with Another Degree

Although most students finish medical school, those who do not frequently have no obvious programmatic alternatives. In recent years, a growing number of medical schools have been developing "off-ramp" programs to help such learners. We surveyed 12 medical schools with off-ramp programs to understand their characteristics and challenges. Differences existed between programs but most were deemed helpful to the students and institutions they served. Advantages included the opportunity to acknowledge the students' hard work, increase career opportunities, and reduce debt. Understanding and promoting such programs will assist students for whom medical school does not represent the optimal career path.

Disaster, Debt, and 'Underdevelopment': The Cunning of Colonial-Capitalism in the Caribbean

This article provides a critical overview of the structural forces exacerbating risk related to disasters in the Caribbean. It focuses on the historical antecedents and socio-environmental consequences of extreme weather events across the region via an anti-colonial analysis of Hurricanes Irma and Maria in 2017 and Dorian in 2019. The authors contend that the logics, practices and debts of colonial-capitalist development, neoliberal exploitation and post-independence corruption continue to reduce resilience and threaten public health in the region. They also detail the role that political economy and social geography play in the face of disasters. They end by proposing that future critiques of and solutions to vulnerability, disaster, and catastrophe in the Caribbean be more attentive to the historical trajectories of imperialism, debt and ‘underdevelopment’.

Internationalization and the capital structure of firms in emerging markets: Evidence from Latin America before and after the financial crisis

This study examines the impact of internationalization on the capital structure of firms in emerging markets before and after the financial crisis of 2008, with evidence from five countries in Latin America (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Mexico, and Peru). We find that before the financial crisis, Latin American MNCs are characterized by lower debt levels than purely domestic firms. However, after the financial crisis, we find that the MNCs are characterized by higher debt levels. This finding suggests that after the financial crisis, the Latin American MNCs (like many firms) may be taking advantage of their access to low interest rates in the global capital markets.

COVID-19 Pandemic Recession and Recovery

This review draws pragmatic lessons for developing countries to address COVID-19-induced recessions and to sustain a developmental recovery. These recessions are unique, caused initially by supply disruptions, largely due to government-imposed ‘stay-in-shelter lockdowns’. These have interacted with falling incomes and demand, declining exports (and imports), collapsing commodity prices, shrinking travel and tourism, decreasing remittances and foreign exchange shortages. Highlighting implications for employment, wellbeing and development, it argues that governments need to design comprehensive relief measures and recovery policies to address short-term problems. These should prevent cash-flow predicaments from becoming full-blown solvency crises. Instead of returning to the status quo ante, developing countries’ capacities and capabilities need to be enhanced to address long-term sustainable development challenges. Multilateral financial institutions should intermediate with financial sources at low cost to supplement the International Monetary Fund’s Special Drawing Rights to lower borrowing costs for relief and recovery.

COVID-19 and the case for global development

COVID-19 accentuates the case for a global, rather than an international, development paradigm. The novel disease is a prime example of a development challenge for all countries, through the failure of public health as a global public good. The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the falsity of any assumption that the global North has all the expertise and solutions to tackle global challenges, and has further highlighted the need for multi-directional learning and transformation in all countries towards a more sustainable and equitable world. We illustrate our argument for a global development paradigm by examining the implications of the COVID-19 pandemic across four themes or 'vignettes': global value chains, digitalisation, debt, and climate change. We conclude that development studies must adapt to a very different context from when the field emerged in the mid-20th century.

The Covid-19 economic crisis: dangerously unique

The Covid-19 crisis is unique in several respects. This devastating recession does not have an economic origin, will dance largely to the tune of non-economic factors, and is truly global. The policy response has been equally unique, in terms of speed, size and scope, eliciting an unprecedented concerted effort combining monetary, fiscal and prudential policies. This has contained the fallout. At the time of writing, financial markets have rebounded to the point of looking exuberant, but it all feels more like a truce than a peace treaty. The crisis is transitioning from the liquidity to the solvency phase in a context of limited and shrinking room for policy manoeuvre. All this raises difficult near- and longer-term challenges. Rebuilding policy buffers in all policy areas is likely to be the policy challenge of the decade ahead.

Exploring sustainable scenarios in debt-based social-ecological systems: The case for palm oil production in Indonesia

A debt-based economy requires the accumulation of more and more debt to finance economic growth, while future economic growth is needed to repay the debt, and so the cycle continues. Despite global debt reaching unprecedented levels, little research has been done to understand the impacts of debt dynamics on environmental sustainability. Here, we explore the environmental impacts of the debt-growth cycle in Indonesia, the world's largest debt-based producer of palm oil. Our empirical Agent-Based Model analyses the future effects (2018-2050) of power (im)balance scenarios between debt-driven economic forces (i.e. banks, firms), and conservation forces, on two ecosystem services (food production, climate regulation) and biodiversity. The model shows the trade-offs and synergies among these indicators for Business As Usual as compared to alternative scenarios. Results show that debt-driven economic forces can partially support environmental conservation, provided the state's role in protecting the environment is reinforced. Our analysis provides a lesson for developing countries that are highly dependent on debt-based production systems: sustainable development pathways can be achievable in the short and medium terms; however, reaching long-term sustainability requires reduced dependency on external financial powers, as well as further government intervention to protect the environment from the rough edges of the market economy.

The passing of western civilization

Modern western civilization reached a pinnacle in the last half of the 20^th century, spending over 200 years evolving and spreading throughout the world. A robust social contract, technological advancement and pervasive economic success in the context of democracy and capitalism propelled the project. Unfortunately, two underlying pillars of past success developed intensifying negative consequences, hastening socioeconomic decline: insatiable collective wants and global population growth. The rise and decline of civilizations in history is well documented, yet oddly ignored in today's dialogue. Contemporary civilization is assumed to be immune from forces that shaped cycles of past civilizations-that our age is somehow an exception. For the first time in human history planetary systems that seemed invisible until recently are sending us the message that our civilization is not exceptional, that there are finite limits to the thrust of humanity's present trajectory. Viable solutions curbing the effects of habitat destruction, diminishing biodiversity and climate change along with rising inequality, debt, conflict and refugee flows are known but unimplementable. The current essay examines underlying causes of socioeconomic deterioration and entrapment, suggesting a comprehensive collective intelligence enterprise be launched to prepare for the global transition facing humanity.

Debt, Incarceration, and Re-entry: a Scoping Review

People involved with the criminal justice system in the United States are disproportionately low-income and indebted. The experience of incarceration intensifies financial hardship, including through worsening debt. Little is known about how people who are incarcerated and their families are impacted by debt and how it affects their reentry experience. We conducted a scoping review to identify what is known about the debt burden on those who have been incarcerated and their families and how this impacts their lives. We searched 14 data bases from 1990 to 2019 for all original research addressing financial debt held by those incarcerated in the United States, and screened articles for relevance and extracted data from pertinent studies. These 31 studies selected for inclusion showed that this population is heavily burdened by debt that was accumulated in three general categories: debt directly from criminal justice involvement such as LFOs, preexisting debt that compounded during incarceration, and debts accrued during reentry for everyday survival. Debt was generally shown to have a negative effect on financial well-being, reentry, family structure, and mental health. Debts from LFOs and child support is very common among the justice-involved population and are largely unpayable. Other forms of debt likely to burden this population remain largely understudied. Extensive reform is necessary to lessen the burden of debt on the criminal justice population in order to improve reentry outcomes and quality of life.

National prospective cohort study describing how financial stresses are associated with attrition from surgical residency

BACKGROUND

Attrition from general surgery residency is high with a national rate of 20%. We evaluated potential associations between financial considerations and attrition.

METHODS

National prospective cohort study of categorical general surgery trainees.

RESULTS

Of the 1048 interns who started training in 2007, 681 (65%) had complete survey and follow-up data. In logistic regression, those with higher starting attending salary expectations (>$300K) were more likely to leave training (OR 2.9, 95% CI 1.2-6.9). Women with a partner who earned more (>$50K/year) were more likely to leave training (OR 4.1, 95% CI 1.6-10.5). In a subgroup of interns undecided about their future practice setting (academic, community, private practice, industry), those with less debt (≤$100K) were more likely to leave training (OR 2.4, 95% CI 1.1-5.2).

CONCLUSIONS

Several financial matters were associated with attrition. Addressing these financial concerns may help decrease attrition in surgical training and improve surgical training.

Feasibility of Brief Screening for At-Risk Gambling in Consumer Credit Counseling

Gambling disorder and problem gambling often lead to major suffering in the form of mental health problems, interpersonal conflict, and financial crises. One potential setting for detecting at-risk gambling is credit counseling as gambling problems may manifest themselves in the form of financial distress and bankruptcy. Research studies have not considered those seeking credit counseling as individuals at risk for gambling problems even though gambling may contribute to financial distress. Therefore, the current study sought to quantify the prevalence of at-risk gambling in credit counseling compared with national estimates, to compare at-risk gamblers in this population to lower risk individuals, and to assess the feasibility of gambling screening in these settings. Using a mixed methods approach, the current study found that almost 20% of callers to a national agency reported gambling behavior, and among those who gambled, they reported higher rates of problems related to gambling than the broader U.S. population, thus supporting the idea that screening in credit counseling may help identify those at risk. Low risk gamblers were slightly younger than non-gamblers, but no other differences in sociodemographic and financial status variables were found based on gambling risk status. Results from focus groups and individual interviews suggest that credit counselors and program administrators see the benefit to brief screening within their intake and counseling processes. Our findings suggest that gambling screening is feasible in consumer credit counseling and may be acceptable to staff and administrators at these agencies.

Cost-related medication nonadherence among over-indebted individuals enrolled in statutory health insurance in Germany: a cross-sectional population study

Background

Millions of citizens in high-income countries face over-indebtedness that implies being unable to cover payment obligations with available income and assets on an ongoing basis. Studies have shown an association between over-indebtedness and health outcomes, independent of standard socioeconomic status measures. Patterns of cost-related medication nonadherence (CRN) among over-indebted individuals are yet unclear. The aim of this study was to examine the frequency of nonadherence to prescribed medications due to cost, and to identify risk factors for CRN among over-indebted individuals in Germany.

Methods

In 2017, we conducted a cross-sectional survey among over-indebted individuals recruited in 70 debt advice agencies in North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany. Data on CRN in the last 12 months (i.e. not filling prescriptions, skipping or decreasing doses of prescribed medication due to financial problems) were collected by a survey using a self-administered written questionnaire that was returned by 699 individuals with a response rate of 50.2%. Prevalence of CRN was assessed using descriptive statistics. Multiple logistic regression analysis was performed to examine risk factors of CRN, including participants enrolled in statutory health insurance with complete data (n = 521).

Results

The prevalence of CRN was 33.6%. The chronically ill had significantly greater odds of cost-related medication nonadherence (aOR 1.96; 95% CI 1.27–3.03) than individuals without a chronic illness. CRN was more likely to occur in individuals who had discussed financial problems with their general practitioner (aOR 1.58; 95% CI 1.01–2.47). There was no association between CRN and other sociodemographic factors or socioeconomic status.

Conclusions

Medication nonadherence due to financial pressures is common among over-indebted citizens enrolled in statutory health insurance in Germany. Stakeholders in social policy, research and health care need to address over-indebtedness to develop strategies to safeguard access to relevant medications, especially among those with high morbidity.

Trial registration

Arzneimittelkonsum, insbesondere Selbstmedikation bei überschuldeten Bürgerinnen und Bürgern in Nordrhein-Westfalen (ArSemü), (engl. ‘Medication use, particularly self-medication among over-indebted citizens in North Rhine-Westphalia’), German Clinical Trials Register: DRKS00013100. Date of registration: 23.10.2017. Date of enrolment of the first participant: 18.07.2017, retrospectively registered.

Financial stress and mental health among higher education students in the UK up to 2018: rapid review of evidence

Introduction

In the United Kingdom and many other countries, debt accrued during higher education has increased substantially in recent decades. The prevalence of common mental health problems has also increased alongside these changes. However, it is as yet unclear whether there is an association between financial stress and mental health among higher education students.

Methods

We conducted a rapid review of the peer-reviewed scientific literature. Eligible studies were English-language publications testing the association between any indicator of financial stress and mental health among higher education students in the UK. Papers were located through a systematic search of PsychINFO, PubMed and Embase up to November 2018.

Results

The search strategy yielded 1272 studies—9 met the inclusion criteria. A further two were identified through hand-searching. The median sample size was 408. Only three of seven studies found an association between higher debt and worse mental health. There was a consistent cross-sectional relationship between worse mental health and both experience of financial difficulties (seven of seven studies) and debt worry/financial concern (four of five studies), though longitudinal evidence was mixed and limited to six studies.

Conclusion

Among higher education students in the UK, there is little evidence that the amount of debt is associated with mental health. However, more subjective measures of increased financial stress were more consistently associated with worse mental health outcomes. Nevertheless, the identified evidence was judged to be weak; further research is required to examine whether links between financial stress and mental health outcomes are robust and causal in nature.

Over-indebtedness and its association with sleep and sleep medication use

BACKGROUND

Over-indebtedness is currently rising in high-income countries. Millions of citizens are confronted with the persistent situation when household income and assets are insufficient to cover payment obligations and living expenses. Previous research shows that over-indebtedness increases the risk of various adverse health effects. However, its association with sleep problems has not yet been examined. The objective of this study was to investigate the association between over-indebtedness and sleep problems and sleep medication use.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study on over-indebtedness (OID survey) was conducted in 70 debt advisory centres in Germany in 2017 that included 699 over-indebted respondents. The survey data were combined with the nationally representative German Health Interview and Examination Survey for Adults (DEGS1; n = 7987). We limited analyses to participants with complete data on all sleep variables (OID: n = 538, DEGS1: n = 7447). Descriptive analyses and logistic regression analyses were used to examine the association between over-indebtedness and difficulty initiating and maintaining sleep, and sleep medication use.

RESULTS

A higher prevalence of sleep problems and sleep medication use was observed among over-indebted individuals compared to the general population. After adjustment for socio-economic and health factors (age, sex, education, marital status, employment status, subjective health status and mental illness), over-indebtedness significantly increased the risk of difficulties with sleep onset (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 1.79, 95%-confidence interval (CI) 1.45-2.21), sleep maintenance (aOR 1.45, 95%-CI 1.17-1.80) and sleep medication use (aOR 3.94, 95%-CI 2.96-5.24).

CONCLUSIONS

Evidence suggests a strong association between over-indebtedness and poor sleep and sleep medication use independent of conventional socioeconomic measures. Considering over-indebtedness in both research and health care practice will help to advance the understanding of sleep disparities, and facilitate interventions for those at risk.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

German Clinical Trials Register: DRKS00013100 (OID survey, ArSemü); Date of registration: 23.10.2017; Date of enrolment of the first participant: 18.07.2017, retrospectively registered.

Racial and Ethnic Variation in the Relationship Between Student Loan Debt and the Transition to First Birth

The present study employs discrete-time hazard regression models to investigate the relationship between student loan debt and the probability of transitioning to either marital or nonmarital first childbirth using the 1997 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY97). Accounting for nonrandom selection into student loans using propensity scores, our study reveals that the effect of student loan debt on the transition to motherhood differs among white, black, and Hispanic women. Hispanic women holding student loans experience significant declines in the probability of transitioning to both marital and nonmarital motherhood, whereas black women with student loans are significantly more likely to transition to any first childbirth. Indebted white women experience only a decrease in the probability of a marital first birth. The results from this study suggest that student loans will likely play a key role in shaping future demographic patterns and behaviors.