Two-step spatiotemporal anomaly detection corrected for lag reporting time with application to real-time dengue surveillance in Thailand

BACKGROUND

Dengue infection ranges from asymptomatic to severe and life-threatening, with no specific treatment available. Vector control is crucial for interrupting its transmission cycle. Accurate estimation of outbreak timing and location is essential for efficient resource allocation. Timely and reliable notification systems are necessary to monitor dengue incidence, including spatial and temporal distributions, to detect outbreaks promptly and implement effective control measures.

METHODS

We proposed an integrated two-step methodology for real-time spatiotemporal cluster detection, accounting for reporting delays. In the first step, we employed space-time nowcasting modeling to compensate for lags in the reporting system. Subsequently, anomaly detection methods were applied to assess adverse risks. To illustrate the effectiveness of these detection methods, we conducted a case study using weekly dengue surveillance data from Thailand.

RESULTS

The developed methodology demonstrated robust surveillance effectiveness. By combining space-time nowcasting modeling and anomaly detection, we achieved enhanced detection capabilities, accounting for reporting delays and identifying clusters of elevated risk in real-time. The case study in Thailand showcased the practical application of our methodology, enabling timely initiation of disease control activities.

CONCLUSION

Our integrated two-step methodology provides a valuable approach for real-time spatiotemporal cluster detection in dengue surveillance. By addressing reporting delays and incorporating anomaly detection, it complements existing surveillance systems and forecasting efforts. Implementing this methodology can facilitate the timely initiation of disease control activities, contributing to more effective prevention and control strategies for dengue in Thailand and potentially other regions facing similar challenges.

Impact of delayed intervention following admission for small bowel obstruction: A contemporary analysis

Background

The optimal timing of surgical intervention for small bowel obstruction (SBO) remains debated.

Methods

All adults admitted for SBO were identified in the 2018-2019 National Inpatient Sample. Patients undergoing small bowel resection or lysis of adhesion after three days were considered part of the Delayed cohort. All others were classified as Early. Multivariable regressions were used to assess independent predictors of delayed surgical intervention as well as associations between delayed management and in-hospital mortality, major adverse events (MAE), perioperative complications, postoperative length of stay (LOS), hospitalization costs and non-home discharge.

Results

Among 28,440 patients who met study criteria, 52.0 % underwent delayed intervention. Black race (AOR 1.19, 95 % CI 1.03-1.36, ref.: White) and Medicare coverage (AOR 1.16, 95 % CI 1.01-1.33, ref.: private payer) were associated with increased odds of delayed surgical management. While delayed intervention was not significantly associated with death (AOR 1.27, 95 % CI 0.97-1.68), it was linked to greater odds of MAE (AOR 1.30, 95 % CI 1.16-1.45) and several perioperative complications. The Delayed cohort also faced an incremental increase in postoperative LOS (+1.29 days, 95 % CI 0.89-1.70) and hospitalization costs (+$11,000, 95 % CI 10,000-12,000). Moreover, delayed intervention was linked to increased odds of non-home discharge (AOR 1.64, 95 % CI 1.47-1.84).

Conclusions

Delay in surgical management following SBO is linked to inferior clinical outcomes and increased resource use. Our findings highlight the need to ensure proper timing of surgery for SBO as well as efforts to standardize these practices across all demographics of patients.

Factors associated with delayed diagnosis of symptomatic adult COVID-19 cases presenting to primary care: a population-wide study during transition from Delta to Omicron BA.1 in Singapore

Background

During pandemics, avoiding time delay in diagnosing infection is crucial. We evaluated factors associated with delayed diagnosis of symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection in a national cohort of adult Singaporeans, during which emergence of the more transmissible Omicron variant shifted pandemic management towards endemicity.

Methods

Retrospective cross-sectional study amongst all adult Singaporeans diagnosed with symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection during the transition from Delta to Omicron BA.1 (September 2021-February 2022). SARS-CoV-2 testing was fully subsidised and compulsory for all symptomatic individuals presenting at primary care. Results and demographic information were extracted from national databases. Time to diagnosis was defined as days from symptom-onset to diagnosis (date of first positive SARS-CoV-2 test); dichotomising into no delay (≤24 h from symptom-onset) and delay >24 h. Multivariable logistic regression was utilised to assess factors associated with delay >24 h, and association of delay >24 h with progression to severe COVID-19.

Findings

Of 149,063 Singaporean adults presenting with symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection, 75.9% (113,195/149,063) were diagnosed within 24 h of symptom-onset. On multivariable analysis, female gender, older age (>60 years), Chinese (vs. Malay) ethnicity, socioeconomic status (housing type), primary care characteristics, presentation during Omicron BA.1 (vs. Delta), symptom-onset on Friday/Saturday (vs. Monday), and not having completed a primary vaccination series were independently associated with higher odds of delay >24 h. Delay >24 h was independently associated with severe COVID-19 (adjusted odds-ratio, aOR = 1.45, 95% CI = 1.27-1.65, p < 0.001).

Interpretation

At-risk populations (unvaccinated, age >60 years) had higher odds of delay in diagnosis. Delay >24 h in diagnosis was independently associated with severe COVID-19.

Funding

This study was not grant-funded.

Access to healthcare services for people with non-communicable diseases during the COVID-19 pandemic in Ibadan, Nigeria: a qualitative study

BACKGROUND

Desirable outcomes for people with non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are achieved when they access routine monitoring and care services. Expectedly, the COVID-19 pandemic severely impacted access to healthcare services, leading to poor health outcomes among people with NCDs. We aimed to [1] explore the delays in accessing healthcare services and [2] understand alternative actions adopted by people with NCDs to overcome these delays.

METHODS

We conducted an exploratory qualitative research guided by the "Three Delays" model to unpack the barriers to healthcare access for people living with NCDs in Ibadan, Nigeria. The "Three Delays" model conceptualizes the reasons for negative/adverse healthcare outcomes related to the patient's decision-making to seek healthcare, reaching an appropriate healthcare facility, and receiving adequate care at the healthcare facility. Twenty-five (25) people with NCDs were purposively selected from the University College Hospital's medical outpatient department to participate in in-depth interviews. Interview recordings were transcribed verbatim and analyzed using a deductive-inductive hybrid thematic analysis.

RESULTS

At the level of individual decision-making, delays were related to fear of contracting COVID-19 in the hospital (considered a hotspot of the COVID-19 pandemic). Regarding reaching an appropriate healthcare facility, delays were mainly attributed to the intra- and inter-city lockdowns, limiting the movements of persons. For those who successfully arrived at the healthcare facilities, delays were related to the unavailability of healthcare professionals, prioritization of COVID-19 patients, and mandatory adherence to COVID-19 protocols, including COVID-19 testing. To overcome the delays mentioned above, people with NCDs resorted to (i) using private healthcare facilities, which were more costly, (ii) using virtual consultation through mobile phone Apps and (iii) self-management, usually by repeating previously prescribed prescriptions to obtain medication.

CONCLUSION

Pandemic conditions provide unique challenges to people with chronic illnesses. Recognizing the need for continuous access to monitoring and care services under such conditions remains critical. Alternative health service provision approaches should be considered in pandemic situations, including remote healthcare services such as Mobile health apps (mHealth) that can help manage and prevent NCDs.

Impact of the SARS-CoV-2 on the journey of high-risk colon cancer patients within the scope of the Unified Health System in Brazil

BACKGROUND

Colon cancer is an important cause of mortality related to cancer. During the COVID-19 pandemic, an important reallotment of assistance resources was necessary to tackle the crisis, directly impacting medical practice all over the globe.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the impact of the Sars-Cov-2 pandemic on the time between diagnosis and the beginning of systemic treatment in patients diagnosed with high-risk colon neoplasia.

METHODS

This is a retrospective study based on the analysis of medical records of patients diagnosed with colon neoplasia who required systemic treatment and were treated between March 2019 and March 2022, in a reference Oncology unit of the Brazilian Unified Health System. The study's population was divided into two groups: (I) Pre-COVID-19: diagnoses made between March 2019 and February 2020, (II) COVID-19: diagnoses made between March 2020 and March 2022.

RESULTS

The sample consisted of 228 patients, 108 (47.97%) of whom were diagnosed during pre-COVID-19 and 118 (52.21%) diagnosed during the two years-period of COVID-19. Regarding the time between colonoscopy and surgery, the time between surgery and first consultation in clinical oncology, and the time between requesting and beginning of systemic treatment, a statistically significant reduction was observed during the COVID-19 period.

CONCLUSION

A decrease in time between diagnosis and systemic treatment of patients with colorectal cancer during the COVID-19 pandemic was observed. Yet, even with this improvement, the time to begin treatment remains greater than the recommended by the current guidelines, regardless of the time of diagnosis (before or after the pandemic), which negatively impacts the disease outcome.

Global dynamics of a tuberculosis model with age-dependent latency and time delays in treatment

Since there exists heterogeneity in incubation periods of tuberculosis and a time lag between treatment and recovery. In this study, we develop a tuberculosis model that takes into account age-dependent latency and time delays in treatment to describe the transmission of tuberculosis. We first show that the solution semi-flow of the model is well-posed and has a global attractor [Formula: see text] within an infinite dimensional space [Formula: see text]. Then we define the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] and prove that it determines the global dynamics of the model. If [Formula: see text], the global attractor [Formula: see text] reduces to the disease-free equilibrium state, indicating that the disease-free equilibrium state is globally asymptotically stable. When [Formula: see text], the semi-flow generated by the model is uniformly persistent, and there exists an interior global attractor [Formula: see text] for this uniformly persistent model. By constructing a suitable Lyapunov function and applying LaSalle's Invariance Principle, we show that the global attractor [Formula: see text] is reduced to the endemic equilibrium state, which means that the endemic equilibrium state is globally asymptotically stable. Based on the tuberculosis data in China from 2007 to 2020, we simulate the parameters and initial values of the proposed model. Furthermore, we calculate the sensitivity of [Formula: see text] to the parameters and find the most sensitive parameters to [Formula: see text]. Finally, we present an improved strategy to achieve the WHO's goal of reducing the incidence of tuberculosis by 90% by 2035 compared to 2015.

The impact of rurality on patient experience and diagnostic pathway intervals in Scotland's cancer patients: Further results from a national cancer diagnosis audit

BACKGROUND

In Scotland 17 % of the population reside rurally and previous research has demonstrated worse cancer outcomes in this group. The underlying reason for this is unclear. This study aims to determine whether patient presenting factors, GP consultation factors or the diagnostic pathways differ between urban and rural patients within Scotland.

METHODS

This study combined two Scottish National Cancer Diagnosis Audits. Participating GPs collected data on the diagnostic pathway from primary to secondary care for cancer patients diagnosed during the audit period. Using the Scottish Government Urban Rural Classification, patients were designated as rural or urban dwellers and compared in descriptive analyses. Key cancer intervals (primary, diagnostic, secondary and treatment interval) were compared between urban and rural dwellers with an additional adjusted analysis for the main cancer sites.

RESULTS

A total of 4309 cancer diagnoses were included in the study; 22 % were in patients from rural locations. Rural patients had significantly more consultations and investigations prior to referral than their urban counterparts. There was no difference in prolonged cancer pathways between the two groups except in lung cancer patients where rural patients had a significantly increased odds of a diagnostic interval of >90 days.

CONCLUSION

Our findings suggest differences in the interaction between patients and GPs prior to referral in urban and rural settings. However, this does not appear to lead to prolonged patient pathways, except in lung cancer. Further research is needed to determine whether this delay is clinically significant and contributing to poorer outcomes in Scottish rural dwellers with lung cancer.

Factors associated with health seeking delay in the screening of cervical cancer among women in Imo state, south Eastern Nigeria

BACKGROUND TO THE STUDY

Cervical cancer is a curable disease if diagnosed early. The mortality rate due to cervical cancer is high worldwide, mainly because of the absence of a functioning screening process and the advanced stage of the disease at diagnosis. The aim of this study was to assess the factors associated with health-seeking delay in the screening of cervical cancer among women in Owerri Municipal LGA, Imo State.

METHODS

A descriptive cross-sectional research design was employed in this study on factors associated with health-seeking delay in the screening of cervical cancer among women in Owerri Municipal LGA. A semi-structured questionnaire was used for the study, and Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) version 20 was used in the analysis of the data gotten from the study. A probability-based multi-stage sampling method was adopted for the study in recruiting 432 women who participated in it.

RESULT

Results from the study showed that most of the women, 117 (27.1 %), were between the ages of 22 and 27. The study found that a high percentage of the respondents, 350 (81.0 %), had heard about cervical cancer screening, and when they were asked who they thought should be screened for cervical cancer, 154 (35.6 %) said women between the ages of 15 and 40. Further findings revealed that, 420 (97.2 %) said they had not been screened for cervical cancer. The study also demonstrated that 260 (60.2 %) believe long distance has an impact on your access to health care. The findings of this study revealed that age (P = 0.0247), educational level of women (P = 0.0214), and monthly income of the women (P = 0.0062) were all significantly associated with health-seeking delay in cervical screening.

CONCLUSION

The study concluded that there is no limited knowledge about cervical cancer among women in Owerri Municipal. Long distance to screening facilities, educational background, and monthly income are significantly associated with the delay in seeking health services for cervical screening.

RECOMMENDATION

The study recommended that there should be massive awareness and participation in the screening program across the state.

The Impact of Surgical Timing of Hip Fracture on Mortality: Do the Cause and Duration of Delay Matter?

Purpose

Delay in performance of hip fracture surgery can be caused by medical and/or administrative reasons. Although early surgery is recommended, it is unclear what constitutes a delayed surgery and whether the impact of delayed surgery can differ depending on the reason for the delay.

Materials and Methods

A total of 269 consecutive hip fracture patients over 50 years of age who underwent surgery were prospectively enrolled. They were divided into two groups: early and delayed (time from reaching the hospital to surgery less than or more than 48 hours). Patients were also categorized as fit or unfit based on anesthetic fitness. One-year mortality was recorded, and regression analyses were performed to assess the impact of delay on mortality.

Results

A total of 153 patients (56.9%) had delayed surgery with a mean time to surgery of 87±70 hours. A total of 115 patients (42.8%) were considered medically fit to undergo surgery. No difference in one-year mortality was observed between patients with early surgery and those with delayed surgery (P=0.854). However, when assessment of the time to surgery was performed in a continuous manner, mortality increased with prolonged time to surgery, particularly in unfit patients, and higher mortality was observed when the delay exceeded six days (fit: P=0.117; unfit: P=0.035).

Conclusion

The effect of delay on mortality was predominantly observed in patients who were not considered medically fit, suggesting that surgical delays might have a greater impact on patients with medical reasons for delay.

Factors associated with diagnostic delay of pulmonary tuberculosis among children and adolescents in Quzhou, China: results from the surveillance data 2011-2021

PURPOSE

Tuberculosis is a high-burden disease and a major health concern in China, especially among children and adolescents. The purpose of this study was to assess risk factors for diagnostic delay in students with pulmonary tuberculosis in Quzhou City in eastern China.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Cases of PTB in students and relevant information in Quzhou from 2011 to 2021 were collected using the TB Management Information System. The outcome of interest was diagnostic delay (i.e. ≥ 28 days between symptom onset and treatment initiation). Risk factors for diagnostic delay were identified using multivariable logistic regression.

RESULTS

A total of 629 students in Quzhou were diagnosed with PTB during the study period, of whom 55.5% were male. The median diagnostic delay was 18 days (Inter Quartile Range, [IQR]: 8-38) and 38.0% of the students had a diagnostic delay. Living in a rural area (adjusted odds ratio, [AOR]: 1.56, 95% confidence interval [CI:] 1.11-2.19), developing PTB symptoms in the first quarter of the year (AOR: 2.18, 95% CI: 1.40-3.40), and no sputum smear result (AOR: 8.73, 95% CI: 1.68-45.30) were significantly associated with a diagnostic delay. Discovery through health examinations (AOR: 0.33, 95% CI: 0.17-0.63) was associated with reduced risk of diagnostic delay.

CONCLUSION

Schools in rural areas should pay special attention to increasing student awareness of the symptoms of tuberculosis and provide health education on tuberculosis prevention and control to students and staff.

Prevalence and determinants of delays in care among premature deaths due to acute cardiac conditions and stroke in residents of a district in India

Background

Lack of timely care is a predictor of poor outcomes in acute cardiovascular emergencies including stroke. We assessed the presence of delay in seeking appropriate care among those who died due to cardiac/stroke emergencies in a community in northern India and identified the reasons and determinants of this delay.

Methods

We conducted a social audit among all civil-registered premature (30-69 years) deaths due to acute cardiac event or stroke in the district. The three-delays model was used to qualitatively classify the delays in care-seeking-deciding to seek care, reaching the appropriate health facility (AHF) and initiating definitive treatment. Based on the estimated time from symptom onset to reaching AHF, we classified patients as early (reached within one hour) or delayed arrivers. We used mixed-effect logistic regression with postal code as a random effect to identify determinants of delayed arrival.

Findings

Only 10.8% of the deceased reached an AHF within one hour. We noted level-1 delay in 38.4% (60% due to non-recognition of seriousness); level-2 delay in 20% (40% due to going to an inappropriate facility) and level-3 delay in 10.8% (57% due to lack of affordability). Patients with a monthly family income of >270US$ (aOR 0.44; 95% CI 0.21-0.93) were less and those staying farther from AHF (aOR 1.12; 95% CI 1.01-1.25 for each Km) were more likely to have delayed arrival in AHF.

Interpretation

A small proportion of patients with cardiac and stroke emergencies reach health facility early with delays at multiple levels. Addressing the reasons for delay could prevent these deaths.

Funding

: Indian Council of Medical Research, New Delhi, India.

Health and economic impact of delaying large-scale HPV vaccination and screening implementation on cervical cancer in China: a modelling study

Background

Current uptake of HPV vaccination and screening in China is far below World Health Organization 2030 targets for cervical cancer elimination. We quantified health and economic losses of delaying large-scale HPV vaccination and screening implementation in China.

Methods

We used a previously validated transmission model to project lifetime health benefits, costs, effectiveness, and timeline for cervical cancer elimination of alternative scenarios, including combining HPV vaccination initiated from 2022 to 2030 with screening in different modalities and coverage increase rates, as well as screening alone. All women living or projected to be born in China during 2022-2100 were considered. We employed a societal perspective.

Findings

Regardless of vaccine type, immediate large-scale vaccination initiated in 2022 and achieving 70% coverage of HPV-based screening in 2030 (no-delay scenario) would be the least costly and most effective. Compared with the no-delay scenario, delaying vaccination by eight years would result in 434,000-543,000 additional cervical cancer cases, 138,000-178,000 deaths, and $2863-4437 million costs, and delay elimination by 9-10 years. Even with immediate vaccination, the gradual scale-up of LBC-based screening to 70% coverage in 2070 would result in 2,530,000-3,060,000 additional cases, 909,000-1,040,000 deaths, and $5098-5714 million costs compared with no-delay scenario, and could not achieve elimination if domestic 2vHPV or 4vHPV vaccines are used (4.09-4.21 cases per 100,000 woman in 2100).

Interpretation

Delaying large-scale HPV vaccination and/or high-performance screening implementation has detrimental consequences for cervical cancer morbidity, mortality, and expenditure. These findings should spur health authorities to expedite large-scale vaccine rollout and improve screening.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (INV-031449 and INV-003174) and CAMS Innovation Fund for Medical Sciences (CIFMS) (2021-I2M-1-004).

Updates and confounding factors in delayed sleep-wake phase disorder

Delayed sleep-wake phase disorder (DSWPD) is a circadian rhythm sleep disorder characterised by a delay in the main sleep period, with patients experiencing difficulty getting to sleep and waking up at socially appropriate times. This often causes insomnia and compromised sleep, results in impairment to daytime function and is associated with a range of comorbidities. Besides interventions aimed at ameliorating symptoms, there is good evidence supporting successful phase advancement with bright light therapy or melatonin administration. However, no treatment to date addresses the tendency to phase delay, which is a common factor amongst the various contributing causes of DSWPD. Circadian phase markers such as core body temperature and circulating melatonin typically correlate well with sleep timing in healthy patients, but numerous variations exist in DSWPD patients that can make these unpredictable for use in diagnostics. There is also increasing evidence that, on top of problems with the circadian cycle, sleep homeostatic processes actually differ in DSWPD patients compared to controls. This naturally has ramifications for management but also for the current approach to the pathogenesis itself in which DSWPD is considered a purely circadian disorder. This review collates what is known on the causes and treatments of DSWPD, addresses the pitfalls in diagnosis and discusses the implications of current data on modified sleep homeostasis, making clinical recommendations and directing future research.

Impact of COVID-19 on Disease Progression and Postoperative Complications in Patients with Head and Neck Cancer

The COVID-19 pandemic has created a remarkable challenge for the healthcare system. The delayed presentation, diagnosis, and treatment of head and neck cancer during the COVID-19 pandemic is expected to adversely affect outcomes. COVIDSurg collaborative group in 2020 concluded surgery ≥ 4 weeks after a positive COVID-19 swab result was associated with a lower risk of postoperative mortality. The aim of this study is to assess the disease progression due to COVID-19 infection in patients with head and neck cancer planned for surgery and to analyze the postoperative complications in head and neck cancer patients who underwent surgery after COVID-19 infection. This is an ambispective observational study and included patients with head and neck cancer who recovered from COVID-19 infection and underwent surgery from June 2020 to May 2022. There were a total of 1849 patients with head and neck cancer operated in the mentioned study period during COVID-19 pandemic. One hundred fifty-nine patients had documented COVID-19 infection. One hundred two patients had oral cavity carcinoma (64%), and 38 patients had thyroid carcinoma (23.8%). Early disease was noted in 49 patients (30.8%) and locally advanced disease in 108 patients (67.9%). Mean duration of delay in surgery was 4 weeks. Disease progression was noted in 27 patients (17%) out of which 15 patients were inoperable. Thirty-seven out of 159 patients (23%) had postoperative complications, and it included 2 mortality. There was increased trend noted in pulmonary complications and hemorrhage when compared to pre-COVID-19 era. Due to COVID-19 pandemic, delayed elective head and neck cancer surgery has resulted in higher rates of inoperability. COVID-19 has been associated with increased postoperative pulmonary complications and hemorrhage.

Determinants of vaccine refusal, delay and reluctance in parents of 2-year-old children in Canada: Findings from the 2017 Childhood National Immunization Coverage Survey (cNICS)

Vaccine hesitancy is a barrier to improving childhood vaccination rates in Canada, but the scope of this problem is unclear due to inconsistent measurement of vaccine uptake indicators. Using 2017 data from a Canadian national vaccine coverage survey, this study analyzed the impact of demographics and parental knowledge, attitudes and beliefs (KAB) on vaccine decisions (refusal, delay and reluctance) in parents of 2-year-old children who had received at least one vaccine. The findings show that 16.8% had refused a vaccine, specifically influenza (73%), rotavirus (13%) and varicella (9%); female parents or those from Quebec or the Territories more likely to refuse. 12.8% were reluctant to accept a vaccine, usually influenza (34%), MMR (21%) and varicella (19%), but eventually accepted them upon advice from a health care provider. 13.1% had delayed a vaccine, usually because their child had health issues (54%) or was too young (18.6%) and was predicted by five or six person households. Recent immigration to Canada decreased likelihood of refusal, delay, or reluctance; however, after 10 years in Canada, these parents were as likely to refuse or be reluctant as parents born in Canada. Poor KAB increased likelihood of refusal and delay by 5 times, and reluctance by 15 times, while moderate KAB increased likelihood of refusal (OR 1.6), delay (OR 2.3) and reluctance (OR 3.6). Future research into vaccine decisions by female and/or single parents, and predictors of vaccine KAB would provide valuable information and help protect our children from vaccine preventable diseases.

Fractures in elderly mice demonstrate delayed ossification of the soft callus: a cellular and radiographic study

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to assess the cellular age-related changes in fracture repair and relate these to the observed radiographic assessments at differing time points.

METHODS

Transverse traumatic tibial diaphyseal fractures were created in 12-14 weeks old (young n = 16) and 18 months old (elderly n = 20) in Balb/C wild mice. Fracture calluses were harvested at five time points from 1 to 35 days post fracture for histomorphometry (percent of cartilage and bone), radiographic analysis (total callus volume, callus index, and relative bone mineral content).

RESULTS

The elderly mice produced an equal amount of cartilage when compared to young mice (p > 0.08). However, by day 21 there was a significantly greater percentage of bone at the fracture site in the young group (mean percentage 50% versus 11%, p < 0.001). It was not until day 35 when the elderly group produced a similar amount of bone compared to the young group at 21 days (50% versus 53%, non-significant (ns)). The callus area and callus index on radiographic assessment was not significantly different between young and elderly groups at any time point. Relative bone mineral content was significantly greater in the young group at 14 days (545.7 versus -120.2, p < 0.001) and 21 days (888.7 versus 451.0, p < 0.001) when compared to the elderly group. It was not until day 35 when the elderly group produced a similar relative bone mineral content as the young group at 21 days (888.7 versus 921.8, ns).

CONCLUSIONS

Elderly mice demonstrated a delay in endochondral ossification which was associated with a decreased relative bone mineral content at the fracture site and may help assess these cellular changes in a clinical setting.

The COVID-19 Era Is Associated With Delays in Esophageal Cancer Diagnosis and Treatment

INTRODUCTION

The coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has substantially affected the delivery of healthcare globally. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the association of this era with the timeline of care in esophageal cancer patients.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective chart-review of patients presenting to a single high-volume tertiary care center with the diagnosis of esophageal cancer. COVID era was defined as March 2020-December 2020 and compared with the year before (3/2019-12/2019).

RESULTS

In total, 117 patients presented in the COVID-era versus 190 in pre-COVID. Stage 3 + 4 disease was found in 77.8% of the patients in the COVID-era compared to 68.9% in the pre-COVID era (P = 0.34). Diagnoses through emergency department admission were 35.5% in the COVID versus 26.7% in the pre-COVID group (P = 0.15). In the COVID era it took a median of 78 d to visit primary care provider (versus 52 d, P = 0.12 in pre-COVID), 45 d to endoscopy (versus 18 d, P = 0.004) and 38 d to treatment initiation (versus 36 d, P = 0.48). Thirty-five percent of the patients underwent esophagectomy compared to 26% in the pre-COVID-era. Median days of intensive-care-unit (ICU) (2 versus 3, P = 0.16) and hospital stay (14 versus 15, P = 0.28) were similar in both groups as well as postoperative 30-day morbidities (63 versus 63%, P = 0.48). One-year follow-up showed 83.7% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 73.8%-90.1%) survival in the COVID-group compared to 76.4% (95% CI: 66.9%-83.5%) in the pre-COVID-group (P = 0.58). Only three patients had a positive COVID result.

CONCLUSIONS

Our institution treated fewer esophageal cancer patients during COVID-19 accompanied by a delay in endoscopic diagnosis. Postoperative outcomes and 1-year survival remained similar.

PID and LQG Controllers for Diabetes System with Internal Delay: A comparison study

Closed-loop treatment for insulin dependent type 1 diabetes patients is a recent medical practice in insulin delivery (bionic pancreas) which aims to achieve tight control of glucose level in plasma and ensure minimizing risk of hypoglicemia. Among those most popular closed-loop controller strategies, proportional integral derivative (PID) and linear quadratic Gaussian (LQG) controller are designed and compared for insulin delivery in diabetic patients. The controllers are designed based on individual and nominal model which is to study the ability of the controller to maintain blood glucose concentration for similar patient's dynamic. The comparison is conducted numerically not only for for patients suffering type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM), but also type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), and double diabetes mellitus (DDM) in the present of internal delay systems, which causes instability. The responses show that the proposed PID controller is better at maintaining the blood glucose level in the normal range for a longer delay in delay in&#xD;hepatic glucose production. The patient with longer performing physical exercise has lower oscillation peaks in blood glucose concentration.

A time-causal and time-recursive scale-covariant scale-space representation of temporal signals and past time

This article presents an overview of a theory for performing temporal smoothing on temporal signals in such a way that: (i) temporally smoothed signals at coarser temporal scales are guaranteed to constitute simplifications of corresponding temporally smoothed signals at any finer temporal scale (including the original signal) and (ii) the temporal smoothing process is both time-causal and time-recursive, in the sense that it does not require access to future information and can be performed with no other temporal memory buffer of the past than the resulting smoothed temporal scale-space representations themselves. For specific subsets of parameter settings for the classes of linear and shift-invariant temporal smoothing operators that obey this property, it is shown how temporal scale covariance can be additionally obtained, guaranteeing that if the temporal input signal is rescaled by a uniform temporal scaling factor, then also the resulting temporal scale-space representations of the rescaled temporal signal will constitute mere rescalings of the temporal scale-space representations of the original input signal, complemented by a shift along the temporal scale dimension. The resulting time-causal limit kernel that obeys this property constitutes a canonical temporal kernel for processing temporal signals in real-time scenarios when the regular Gaussian kernel cannot be used, because of its non-causal access to information from the future, and we cannot additionally require the temporal smoothing process to comprise a complementary memory of the past beyond the information contained in the temporal smoothing process itself, which in this way also serves as a multi-scale temporal memory of the past. We describe how the time-causal limit kernel relates to previously used temporal models, such as Koenderink's scale-time kernels and the ex-Gaussian kernel. We do also give an overview of how the time-causal limit kernel can be used for modelling the temporal processing in models for spatio-temporal and spectro-temporal receptive fields, and how it more generally has a high potential for modelling neural temporal response functions in a purely time-causal and time-recursive way, that can also handle phenomena at multiple temporal scales in a theoretically well-founded manner. We detail how this theory can be efficiently implemented for discrete data, in terms of a set of recursive filters coupled in cascade. Hence, the theory is generally applicable for both: (i) modelling continuous temporal phenomena over multiple temporal scales and (ii) digital processing of measured temporal signals in real time. We conclude by stating implications of the theory for modelling temporal phenomena in biological, perceptual, neural and memory processes by mathematical models, as well as implications regarding the philosophy of time and perceptual agents. Specifically, we propose that for A-type theories of time, as well as for perceptual agents, the notion of a non-infinitesimal inner temporal scale of the temporal receptive fields has to be included in representations of the present, where the inherent nonzero temporal delay of such time-causal receptive fields implies a need for incorporating predictions from the actual time-delayed present in the layers of a perceptual hierarchy, to make it possible for a representation of the perceptual present to constitute a representation of the environment with timing properties closer to the actual present.

Reasons for Delay in Seeking Treatment for Dental Caries in Tanzania

INTRODUCTION

The delay in seeking dental treatment is a universal health problem, with a reported prevalence as high as 98%. It is a critical feature not only in planning management but also in the final treatment outcome.

AIM

This study aimed to determine the reasons for the delay in seeking treatment for dental caries amongst patients attending public dental clinics in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.

METHODOLOGY

This was a cross-sectional study carried out in 5 public hospitals in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. It included 315 adult patients who had dental caries. Data were collected using a questionnaire that included questions regarding reasons for the delay in seeking care for dental caries. Data were analysed using the SPSS computer software version 26. A one-way analysis of variance was used to assess the association between variables, and the significance level was set at P < .05.

RESULTS

A majority (n = 244, 77.5%) of the participants delayed seeking dental care upon noting a problem in their teeth. However, the association between the sociodemographic characteristics of the participants and delay in seeking dental care was statistically insignificant (P > .05). The most common reason given by the participants who delayed seeking dental care for their decayed teeth included self-negligence (n = 184, 75.4%), the practice of self-medication (n = 164, 67.2%), and ignorance (n = 110, 45.1%).

CONCLUSIONS

The majority of patients experiencing dental caries seek dental care very late. Delay in seeking dental care is not dependent on sociodemographic characteristics of individuals. Self-negligence, the practice of self‑medication, and ignorance are the major reasons for the delay.

AI-assisted Emergency Healthcare using Vehicular Network and Support Vector Machine

The COVID-19 pandemic has created an emergency across the globe. The number of corona positive and death cases is still rising worldwide. All countries' governments are taking various steps to control the infection of COVID-19. One step to control the coronavirus's spreading is to quarantine. But the number of active cases at the quarantine center is increasing daily. Also, the doctors, nurses, and paramedical staff providing service to the people at the quarantine center are getting infected. This demands the automatic and regular monitoring of people at the quarantine center. This paper proposed a novel and automated method for monitoring people at the quarantine center in two phases. These are the health data transmission phase and health data analysis phase. The health data transmission phase proposed a geographic-based routing that involves components like Network-in-box, Roadside-unit, and vehicles. An effective route is determined using route value to transmit data from the quarantine center to the observation center. The route value depends on the factors such as density, shortest path, delay, vehicular data carrying delay, and attenuation. The performance metrics considered for this phase are E2E delay, number of network gaps, and packet delivery ratio, and the proposed work performs better than the existing routing like geographic source routing, anchor-based street traffic aware routing, Peripheral node based GEographic DIstance Routing . The analysis of health data is done at the observation center. In the health data analysis phase, the health data is classified into multi-class using a support vector machine. There are four categories of health data: normal, low-risk, medium-risk, and high-risk. The parameters used to measure the performance of this phase are precision, recall, accuracy, and F-1 score. The overall testing accuracy is found to be 96.8%, demonstrating strong potential for our technique to be adopted in practice.

Factors influencing the timeliness of care for patients with lung cancer in Bangladesh

BACKGROUND

This study explored the factors associated with timeliness of care in the healthcare seeking pathway among patients with lung cancer in Bangladesh.

METHODS

A structured questionnaire was used for data collection from 418 patients with lung cancer through face-to-face interviews in three tertiary care hospitals. Log-rank tests were performed to test differences in the length of intervals between points in healthcare by socioeconomic characteristics and care seeking behaviours of the patients. Cox Proportional Hazard (PH) regression analysis was performed to identify the predictors of the intervals after adjustment for variations in other variables.

RESULTS

A higher education level was associated significantly (p < 0.05) with a shorter interval between first contact with a healthcare provider (HCP) and diagnosis (median 81 days) and initiation of treatment (median 101 days). Higher monthly household income was associated significantly with a shorter time from first contact and diagnosis (median 91 days), onset of symptom and diagnosis (median 99 days), onset of symptom and treatment (median 122 days), and first contact with any HCP to treatment (median 111 days). Consulting with additional HCPs prior to diagnosis was associated significantly with longer intervals from first contact with any HCP and diagnosis (median 127 days), onset of symptom and diagnosis (median 154 days), onset of symptom and treatment (median 205 days), and first contact with any HCP to treatment (median 174 days). Consulting with informal HCPs was associated significantly with a longer time interval from symptom to treatment (median 171 days). Having more than one triggering symptom was associated significantly with a shorter interval between onset of symptoms and first contact with any HCP.

CONCLUSION

The predictors for timeliness of lung cancer care used in this study affected different intervals in the care seeking pathway. Higher education and income predicted shorter intervals whereas consulting informal healthcare providers and multiple providers were associated with longer intervals.

Factors associated with delay to carotid endarterectomy for acute ischaemic stroke in South Australia: A multicentre retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

The greatest benefits of carotid endarterectomy (CEA) accrue when performed within two weeks of acute ischaemic stroke (AIS) due to symptomatic carotid stenosis. Previous studies have identified multiple factors contributing to CEA delay.

AIMS

To determine factors associated with delayed CEA in patients admitted to tertiary stroke centres within a major metropolitan region with AIS METHODS: In a retrospective cohort study, consecutive patients admitted to the tertiary hospitals with stroke units within South Australia (Lyell McEwin Hospital, Royal Adelaide Hospital and Flinders Medical Centre) between 2016 to 2020 were included. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression were used to identify individual factors associated with time from symptom onset to CEA of over two weeks.

RESULTS

A total of 174 patients were included. The median time to CEA was 5 days (IQR 3-9.75). Delayed CEA beyond 14 days occurred in 28/174 (16%). Factors most associated with delayed CEA included presentation to a tertiary hospital without onsite Vascular Surgical Unit (OR 3.71, 95%CI 1.31-10.58), history of previous stroke (OR 3.38, 95% CI 1.11-9.84) and presenting NIHSS above 6 (OR 5.16, 95% CI 1.60-16.39).

CONCLUSION

This study identified that presentation to a tertiary hospital without a Vascular Surgery Unit, history of previous stroke and presenting NIHSS above 6 were associated with delay to CEA in AIS patients in South Australia. Interventional studies aiming to improve the proportion of patients that receive CEA within 14 days are required.

Delay in diagnosis of rheumatoid arthritis: reasons and trends over a decade

INTRODUCTION

Delay in diagnosis and treatment initiation often lead to poorer outcomes in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Most of the data on delay in diagnosis and management are from western population with no data from India. Additionally, with improved health care services, whether the delay has changed over years is not known. In this longitudinal observational study, we investigated delay to diagnosis and disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs) initiation over past 9 years.

METHODS

Patients aged ≥ 18 years having RA fulfilling 2010 ACR/EULAR criteria were enrolled from January to June in years 2012, 2017 and 2021. Diagnoses received before presenting to clinic, socioeconomic status, educational level and other demographic variables were recorded.

RESULTS

Each year, 323 patients (mean age 49.5-52.01 years) were enrolled. There was a significant reduction in delay in diagnosis from a median (IQR) of 36 (12-84, range 1-288) months in 2012 to 12 (4-36, range 1-180) months in 2017 and 10 (5-24, range 1-120) months) in 2021 (p < 0.0001). A significant improvement in time to initiating DMARDs from 2012 [48 (24-96) months] to 2017 [12 (6-36) months] (p < 0.0001) and from 2017 to 2021 [12 (5-24) months] (p = 0.03) was seen. Higher education, more patients opting for treatment from rheumatologists, and urbanisation contributed significantly to improvement in delay. There was no impact of age or gender on delay.

CONCLUSION

Delay in diagnosis has improved significantly between 2012 and 2021. However, delay still remains long as most patients miss the 3-month therapeutic window. Future work focussing on reasons for delays in the patient pathway could help improve consultation pathways in India.

Analysis of Factors Influencing Delayed Presentation in Japanese Patients with Subarachnoid Hemorrhage

OBJECTIVE

Some aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) patients are delayed in their presentation. This can cause a washout of the subarachnoid hematoma and a potential misdiagnosis. As a result, they may suffer rerupture of the aneurysm and preventable deterioration. We investigated the factors that influence delayed SAH presentation.

METHODS

Aneurysmal SAH patients treated at 9 stroke centers from 2002 to 2020 were included. Age, gender, pre-SAH modified Rankin scale, World Federation of Neurological Surgeons grade, Fisher group, day of presentation, aneurysm treatment method, past history of cerebral stroke, comorbidity of hypertension and/or diabetes mellitus, and modified Rankin scaleat discharge were assessed retrospectively. We formed 2 groups based on the day of presentation after the onset of SAH: day 0-3 (early) and other (delayed). Logistic regression analyses detected the factors that influenced the day of presentation and outcome for SAH. A P- value <0.05 was considered significant.

RESULTS

Delayed presentation comprised 282 cases (6.3%) of 4507 included cases. Logistic regression analyses showed that patients in an urban area, of male gender, low WFNS grade and low Fisher group correlated significantly with a delayed presentation. But delayed presentation did not influence outcome at discharge.

CONCLUSIONS

Area of residency and gender correlated with delayed presentation after SAH in Japan. Urbanization, male gender, and mild SAH lead patients to delay presentation. The factors underlying these tendencies will be analyzed in a future prospective study.