Surgical Outcomes for Early Stage Non-small Cell Lung Cancer at Facilities With Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy Programs

BACKGROUND

Patients undergoing surgery for early stage non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) may be at high risk for postoperative mortality. Access to stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) may facilitate more appropriate patient selection for surgery.

RESEARCH QUESTION

Is postoperative mortality associated with early stage NSCLC lower at facilities with higher use of SBRT?

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS

Patients with early stage NSCLC reported to the National Cancer Database between 2004 and 2015 were included. Use of SBRT was defined by each facility's SBRT experience (in years) and SBRT to surgery volume ratios. Multivariate logistic regression was used to test for the associations between SBRT use and postoperative mortality.

RESULTS

The study cohort consisted of 202,542 patients who underwent surgical resection of cT1-T2N0M0 NSCLC tumors. The 90-day postoperative mortality rate declined during the study period from 4.6% to 2.6% (P < .001), the proportion of facilities that used SBRT increased from 4.6% to 77.5% (P < .001), and the proportion of patients treated with SBRT increased from 0.7% to 15.4% (P < .001). On multivariate analysis, lower 90-day postoperative mortality rates were observed at facilities with > 6 years of SBRT experience (OR, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.76-0.94; P = .003) and SBRT to surgery volume ratios of more than 17% (OR, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.79-0.92; P < .001). Ninety-day mortality also was associated with surgical volume, region, year, age, sex, and race, among other covariates. Interaction testing between these covariates showed negative results.

INTERPRETATION

Patients who underwent resection for early stage NSCLC at facilities with higher SBRT use showed lower rates of postoperative mortality. These findings suggest that the availability and use of SBRT may improve the selection of patients for surgery who are predicted to be at high risk of postoperative mortality.

Transoral robotic surgery adoption and safety in treatment of oropharyngeal cancers

BACKGROUND

Transoral robotic surgery (TORS) was approved by the Food and Drug Administration in 2009 for the treatment of oropharyngeal cancers (oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma [OPSCC]). This study investigated the adoption and safety of TORS.

METHODS

All patients who underwent TORS for OPSCC in the National Cancer Data Base from 2010 to 2016 were selected. Trends in the positive margin rate (PMR), 30-day unplanned readmission, and early postoperative mortality were evaluated. Outcomes after TORS, nonrobotic surgery (NRS), and nonsurgical treatment were compared with matched-pair survival analyses.

RESULTS

From 2010 to 2016, among 73,661 patients with OPSCC, 50,643 were treated nonsurgically, 18,024 were treated with NRS, and 4994 were treated with TORS. TORS utilization increased every year from 2010 (n = 363; 4.2%) to 2016 (n = 994; 8.3%). The TORS PMR for base of tongue malignancies decreased significantly over the study period (21.6% in 2010-2011 vs 15.8% in 2015-2016; P = .03). The TORS PMR at high-volume centers (≥10 cases per year; 11.2%) was almost half that of low-volume centers (<10 cases per year; 19.3%; P < .001). The rates of 30-day unplanned readmission (4.1%) and 30-day postoperative mortality (1.0%) after TORS were low and did not vary over time. High-volume TORS centers had significantly lower rates of 30-day postoperative mortality than low-volume centers (0.5% vs 1.5%; P = .006). In matched-pair analyses controlling for clinicopathologic cofactors, 30-, 60-, and 90-day posttreatment mortality did not vary among patients with OPSCC treated with TORS, NRS, or nonsurgical treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

TORS has become widely adopted and remains safe across the country with a very low risk of severe complications comparable to the risk with NRS. Although safety is excellent nationally, high-volume TORS centers have superior outcomes with lower rates of positive margins and early postoperative mortality.

High-TSH Subclinical Hypothyroidism Is Associated With Postoperative Mortality in Acute Type A Aortic Dissection

BACKGROUND

Subclinical hypothyroidism can negatively affect the cardiovascular system and increase the risk of mortality, especially for individuals with thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) levels above 10 mU/L. We investigated the relationship between high-TSH subclinical hypothyroidism and postoperative mortality in acute type A aortic dissection (ATAAD) patients.

METHOD

We enrolled 146 patients with ATAAD who underwent aortic surgery in Beijing Anzhen Hospital from July 2016 to November 2018. Thyroid hormone levels were obtained before surgery, and participants were divided into a ≥10mU/L TSH level group and a <10mU/L level group. Cox proportional hazard regression and subgroup analysis were conducted to examine the association of preoperative high-TSH subclinical hypothyroidism with postoperative mortality.

RESULT

Participants with preoperative high-TSH (≥10mU/L) subclinical hypothyroidism tended to have longer hospitalization stays after surgery [16.0 (IQR 11.0-21.0) days vs 12.5 (IQR 8.0-16.0) days, P=0.001]. During the first 30 days after operation, 15 of 146 patients died (10.3%); during a median of 3.16 (IQR 1.76-4.56) years of follow-up, 24 patients died (16.4%). Cox proportional hazard regression showed that preoperative high-TSH subclinical hypothyroidism was independently associated with 30-day mortality (HR=6.2, 95% CI, 1.7-22.0, P=0.005) and postoperative mortality after adjusting for age, sex, BMI, hypertension, ejection fraction, diabetes and history of PCI (HR=3.4, 95% CI, 1.4-8.0, P=0.005).

CONCLUSION

This study showed that preoperative high-TSH subclinical hypothyroidism was an independent predictor of postoperative mortality in ATAAD patients who underwent aortic surgery.

Portal venous pressure in non-cirrhotic bilharzial patients undergoing elective splenectomy, can it affect mortality? A prospective study

Background and study aims

To evaluate the impact of intraoperatively measured portal vein pressure (PVP) on mortality in non-cirrhotic bilharzial patients undergoing splenectomy.

Methods

The present study is a prospective study that was conducted in Egypt from April 2014 to April 2018. Adult patients with non-cirrhotic bilharziasis who were scheduled to undergo splenectomy were included. Studied cases were divided into a survival cohort and a non-survival cohort. The main objective was the correlation between the incidence of mortality and intraoperative PVP.

Results

The present work comprised 130 cases with a mean age of 51.8 ± 6.4 years old. The in-hospital mortality rate was 22.3%, with sepsis as a major cause of death (37.9%). In term of the association between preoperative variables and mortality, survivors had statistically significant lower portal vein diameter (13.6 ± 1.8 versus 15.2 ± 1.8mm; p<0.001) and higher portal vein velocity (14.2 ± 1.8 versus 10.4 ± 2.3 cm/sec; p<0.001) than nonsurvivors. The survived patients had significantly lower PVP (13.9 ± 1.1 versus 17.7 ± 2.7; p<0.001). A cut-off value of ≥14.5 mmHg, the PVP yielded a sensitivity of 86.2% and a specificity of 69% for the prediction of mortality. The association analysis showed a statistically significant association between mortality and postoperative liver function parameters.

Conclusions

High intraoperative PVP is linked to early postoperative death in non-cirrhotic cases undergoing splenectomy. Our study showed that PVP > 14.5mmHg was an independent predictor of death and showed good diagnostic performance for the detection of early postoperative mortality.

The Pre-Operative GRADE Score Is Associated with 5-Year Survival among Older Patients with Cancer Undergoing Surgery

We aimed to assess the prognostic value of the pre-operative GRADE score for long-term survival among older adults undergoing major surgery for digestive or non-breast gynaecological cancers. Between 2013 and 2019, 136 consecutive older adults with cancer were prospectively recruited from the PF-EC cohort study before major cancer surgery and underwent a geriatric assessment. The GRADE score includes weight loss, gait speed at the threshold of 0.8 m/s, cancer site and cancer extension. The primary outcome was post-operative 5-year mortality. Patients were classified as low risk (GRADE ≤ 8) or high risk (GRADE > 8) on the basis of the median score. A Cox multivariate proportional hazards regression model was performed to assess the association between pre-operative factors and 5-year mortality expressed by adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) and 95% CI. The median age was 80 years, 52% were men, 73% had colorectal cancer. The 30-day post-operative severe complication rate (Clavien-Dindo ≥ 3) was 37%. The 5-year post-operative mortality rate was 34.5%. A GRADE score ≥ 8 (aHR = 2.64 [1.34-5.21], p = 0.0002) was associated with post-operative mortality after adjustment for Body Mass Index < 21 kg/m² and Instrumental Activities of Daily Living <3/4. By combining very simple geriatric and cancer parameters, the pre-operative GRADE score provides a discriminant prognosis and could help to choose the most suitable treatment strategy for older cancer patients, avoiding under or over-treatment.

Prediction of Postoperative Mortality in Patients With Organ Failure Following Pancreaticoduodenectomy

BACKGROUND

Failure to rescue (FTR) patients with postoperative complications contribute to a significant proportion of postoperative mortality. Our main objective was to determine the risk factors for FTR among patients undergoing pancreaticoduodenectomy who suffered a life-threatening complication requiring intensive care unit (ICU) management.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Consecutive patients undergoing pancreaticoduodenectomy from 2011 to 2020 were reviewed retrospectively. Causes of organ failure were described as the one that most commonly contributed to patient's transfer to ICU or death. Two groups were created based on whether patients had FTR and risk factors for FTR were compared. The impact of baseline characteristics, operative characteristics, and risk scoring on FTR was analyzed using multiple logistic regression.

RESULTS

There were 19/58 (33%) FTR patients. Baseline, operative characteristics, postoperative complications, and length of hospital and ICU stay were similar between groups. However, a higher proportion of FTR patients experienced a postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) (16% vs 2.6%, P = .062). Among patients who experienced a POPF, the FTR group had a trend in delayed time from diagnosis to treatment (7 vs 23 hours, P=.131). Renal complications (OR 6.12, 95% CI, 1.23 to 38.43, P = .035) and time from POPF diagnosis to treatment (OR 1.05, 95% CI, 1.00 to 1.11, P = .036) were independent predictors of FTR by multivariable analysis.

CONCLUSION

The occurrence of certain postoperative complications such as renal complications as well as delayed timing of the management of POPF is predictive of FTR following pancreaticoduodenectomy, especially as delayed timing to treatment is a risk factor for FTR.

Anaesthesia's legacy: carpe diem

Intraoperative mortality is now rare. In contrast, 30-day postoperative mortality remains common, with most deaths occurring during the initial hospitalisation. The legacy of anaesthesiology will be determined by our success in dealing with postoperative mortality, which is currently the major problem in perioperative medicine. Carpe diem!

Failure to rescue: A quality indicator for postoperative care

Postoperative complications occur despite optimal perioperative care and are an important driver of mortality after surgery. Failure to rescue, defined as death in a patient who has experienced serious complications, has emerged as a quality metric that provides a mechanistic pathway to explain disparities in mortality rates among hospitals that have similar perioperative complication rates. The risk of failure to rescue is higher after invasive surgical procedures and varies according to the type of postoperative complication. Multiple patient factors have been associated with failure to rescue. However, failure to rescue is more strongly correlated with hospital factors. In addition, microsystem factors, such as institutional safety culture, teamwork, and other attitudes and behaviors may interact with the hospital resources to effectively prevent patient deterioration. Early recognition through bedside and remote monitoring is the first step toward prevention of failure to rescue followed by rapid response initiatives and timely escalation of care.

Understanding the performance of a pan-African intervention to reduce postoperative mortality: a mixed-methods process evaluation of the ASOS-2 trial

BACKGROUND

The African Surgical OutcomeS-2 (ASOS-2) trial tested an enhanced postoperative surveillance intervention to reduce postoperative mortality in Africa. We undertook a concurrent evaluation to understand the process of intervention delivery.

METHODS

Mixed-methods process evaluation, including field notes, interviews, and post-trial questionnaire responses. Qualitative analysis used the framework method with subsequent creation of comparative case studies, grouping hospitals by intervention fidelity. A post-trial questionnaire was developed using initial qualitative analyses. Categorical variables were summarised as count (%) and continuous variables as median (inter-quartile range [IQR]). Odds ratios (OR) were used to rank influences by impact on fidelity.

RESULTS

The dataset included eight in-depth case studies, and 96 questionnaire responses (response rate 67%) plus intervention fidelity data for each trial site. Overall, 57% (n=55/96) of hospitals achieved intervention delivery using an inclusive definition of fidelity. Delivery of the ASOS-2 interventions and data collection presented a significant burden to the investigators, outstripping limited resources. The influences most associated with fidelity were: surgical staff enthusiasm for the trial (OR=3.0; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.3-7.0); nursing management support of the trial (OR=2.6; 95% CI, 1.1-6.5); performance of a dummy run (OR=2.6; 95% CI, 1.1-6.1); nursing colleagues seeing the value of the intervention(s) (OR=2.1; 95% CI, 0.9-5.7); and site investigators' belief in the effectiveness of the intervention (OR=3.2; 95% CI, 1.2-9.4).

CONCLUSIONS

ASOS-2 has proved that coordinated interventional research across Africa is possible, but delivering the ASOS-2 interventions was a major challenge for many investigators. Future improvement science efforts must include better planning for intervention delivery, additional support to investigators, and promotion of strong inter-professional teamwork.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials gov NCT03853824.

In-hospital survival after pancreatoduodenectomy is greater in high-volume hospitals versus lower-volume hospitals: a meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Variation in cut-off values for what is considered a high volume (HV) hospital has made assessments of volume-outcome relationships for pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD) challenging. Accordingly, we performed a systematic review and meta-analysis comparing in-hospital mortality after PD in hospitals above and below HV thresholds of various cut-off values.

METHOD

PubMed/MEDLINE, Embase and Cochrane Library were searched to 4 January 2021 for studies comparing in-hospital mortality after PD in hospitals above and below defined HV thresholds. After data extraction, risk of bias was assessed using the Downs and Black checklist. A random-effects model was used for meta-analysis, including meta-regressions. Registration: PROSPERO, CRD42021224432.

RESULTS

From 1855 records, 17 observational studies of moderate quality were included. Median HV cut-off was 25 PDs/year (IQR: 20-32). Overall relative risk of in-hospital mortality was 0.37 (95% CI: 0.30, 0.45), that is, 63% less in HV hospitals. All subgroup analyses found an in-hospital survival benefit in performing PDs at HV hospitals. Meta-regressions from included studies found no statistically significant associations between relative risk of in-hospital mortality and region (USA vs. non-USA; p = 0.396); or 25th percentile (p = 0.231), median (p = 0.822) or 75th percentile (p = 0.469) HV cut-off values. Significant inverse relationships were found between PD hospital volume and other outcomes.

CONCLUSION

In-hospital survival was significantly greater for patients undergoing PDs at HV hospitals, regardless of HV cut-off value or region. Future research is required to investigate regions where low-volume centres have specialized PD infrastructure and the potential impact on mortality.

Intraoperative Hypotension and Related Risk Factors for Postoperative Mortality After Noncardiac Surgery in Elderly Patients: A Retrospective Analysis Report

Background

Blood pressure fluctuation is very common during non-cardiac surgery in elderly. This retrospective study was to analyse whether intraoperative hypotension in elderly and other risk factors relate to the postoperative mortality.

Methods

A total of 118 cases (Observational group), who underwent noncardiac surgery in three medical centers between September 2014 and March 2017, and died in the hospital after the noncardiac surgery. With 1:2 ratio of propensity matching, 236 survival cases (Control group) were selected for comparison analyses with the death cases. Intraoperative blood pressure and perioperative parameters from both groups were collected from electronic anaesthesia charts. Data were analysed with univariate logistic regression analysis where variables with p values less than 0.05 were analysed with multivariate logistic regression analysis. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was constructed.

Results

There are five risk factors related to postoperative death in elderly patients: ASA grade, COPD, emergency surgery, general anesthesia, 60 < MAP ≤ 65mmHg (OR > 1), and one factor may reduce the risk of postoperative mortality, which is PACU therapy (OR < 1). Compared with the Control group, the Observational group had a higher proportion of cerebral hernia, kidney injury and trauma (p < 0.001). The intraoperative blood transfusion volume and intraoperative blood loss volume were higher in the Observational group than the Control group (p < 0.001). The proportion of using vasoactive drugs was higher in the Observational group (p < 0.001), and there was more urine output during the operation in the Observational group (p = 0.005).

Conclusion

The intraoperative MAP of geriatric patients lower than 65mmHg is highly related to the postoperative mortality. Elderly patients with emergency surgery, high ASA grade and a history of COPD have an increased risk of postoperative mortality. General anesthesia is a risk factor for postoperative death in elderly patients, and the PACU therapy is a protective factor to avoid postoperative death.

Trial Registration

This study has been retrospectively registered in the Chinese Clinical Trials Registry (ChiCTR2000038912, 10/10/2020).

Anastomotic leakage and postoperative mortality in patients after esophageal cancer resection

Objective

Esophagectomy is a high-risk surgical procedure with significant postoperative morbidity and mortality. This study aimed to investigate the risk factors of cervical anastomotic leakage and postoperative mortality.

Methods

In this retrospective, observational study, we recruited 1010 patients with esophageal cancer. Cox regression analysis was performed to identify factors affecting anastomotic leakage and postoperative mortality. After propensity score matching, the Kaplan–Meier curve was used to evaluate the effect of leakage on postoperative mortality.

Results

The number of patients with cervical anastomotic leakage, in-hospital mortality, 30-day postoperative mortality, and 60-day postoperative mortality was 194 (19.2%), 13 (1.3%), 12 (1.2%), and 16 (1.6%), respectively. The total length of hospital stay and hospital stay postoperatively were 29.7 ± 21.1 and 21.3 ± 20.3 days, respectively. Diabetes, stage IV, and an upper thoracic tumor were significant risk factors for leakage. Leakage and diabetes were significant risk factors for postoperative mortality. After propensity score matching, leakage also significantly affected postoperative mortality.

Conclusions

Patients with tumors in the upper thoracic segment of the esophagus may be more prone to developing anastomotic leakage compared with those with tumors in the middle or lower thoracic segment. Anastomotic leakage may prolong the length of hospital stay and increase postoperative mortality.

The effect of intra-operative hypotension on acute kidney injury, postoperative mortality and length of stay following emergency hip fracture surgery

The association between intra-operative hypotension and postoperative acute kidney injury, mortality and length of stay has not been comprehensively evaluated in a large single-centre hip fracture population. We analysed electronic anaesthesia records of 1063 patients undergoing unilateral hip fracture surgery, collected from 2015 to 2018. Acute kidney injury, 3-, 30- and 365-day mortality and length of stay were evaluated to assess the relationship between intra-operative hypotension absolute values (≤ 55, 60, 65, 70 and 75 mmHg) and duration of hypotension. The rate of acute kidney injury was 23.7%, mortality at 3-, 30- and 365 days was 3.7%, 8.0% and 25.3%, respectively, and median (IQR [range]) length of stay 8 (6-12 [0-99]) days. Median (IQR [range]) time ≤ MAP 55, 60, 65, 70 and 75 mmHg was 0 (0-0.5[0-72.1]); 0 (0-4.4 [0-104.9]); 2.2 (0-8.7 [0-144.2]); 6.6 (2.2-19.7 [0-198.8]); 17.5 (6.6-37.1 [0-216.3]) minutes, and percentage of surgery time below these thresholds was 1%, 2.5%, 7.9%, 12% and 21% respectively. There were some univariate associations between hypotension and mortality; however, these were no longer evident in multivariable analysis. Multivariable analysis found no association between hypotension and acute kidney injury. Acute kidney injury was associated with male sex, antihypertensive medications and cardiac/renal comorbidities. Three-day mortality was associated with delay to surgery ? 48 hours, whilst 30-day and 365-day mortality was associated with delay to surgery ≥ 48 hours, impaired cognition and cardiac/renal comorbidities. While the rate of acute kidney injury was similar to other studies, use of vasopressors and fluids to reduce the time spent at hypotensive levels failed to reduce this complication. Intra-operative hypotension at the levels observed in this cohort may not be an important determinant of acute kidney injury, postoperative mortality and length of stay.

Predicting 1-Year Mortality after Hip Fracture Surgery: An Evaluation of Multiple Machine Learning Approaches

Postoperative death within 1 year following hip fracture surgery is reported to be up to 27%. In the current study, we benchmarked the predictive precision and accuracy of the algorithms support vector machine (SVM), naïve Bayes classifier (NB), and random forest classifier (RF) against logistic regression (LR) in predicting 1-year postoperative mortality in hip fracture patients as well as assessed the relative importance of the variables included in the LR model. All adult patients who underwent primary emergency hip fracture surgery in Sweden, between 1 January 2008 and 31 December 2017 were included in the study. Patients with pathological fractures and non-operatively managed hip fractures, as well as those who died within 30 days after surgery, were excluded from the analysis. A LR model with an elastic net regularization were fitted and compared to NB, SVM, and RF. The relative importance of the variables in the LR model was then evaluated using the permutation importance. The LR model including all the variables demonstrated an acceptable predictive ability on both the training and test datasets for predicting one-year postoperative mortality (Area under the curve (AUC) = 0.74 and 0.74 respectively). NB, SVM, and RF tended to over-predict the mortality, particularly NB and SVM algorithms. In contrast, LR only over-predicted mortality when the predicted probability of mortality was larger than 0.7. The LR algorithm outperformed the other three algorithms in predicting 1-year postoperative mortality in hip fracture patients. The most important predictors of 1-year mortality were the presence of a metastatic carcinoma, American Society of Anesthesiologists(ASA) classification, sex, Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) ≤ 4, age, dementia, congestive heart failure, hypertension, surgery using pins/screws, and chronic kidney disease.

Effect of electroencephalogram-guided anaesthesia administration on 1 yr mortality: 1 yr follow-up of a randomised clinical trial

BACKGROUND

Intraoperative EEG suppression duration has been associated with postoperative delirium and mortality. In a clinical trial testing anaesthesia titration to avoid EEG suppression, the intervention did not decrease the incidence of postoperative delirium, but was associated with reduced 30 day mortality. The present study evaluated whether the EEG-guided anaesthesia intervention continued to be associated with reduced 1 yr mortality.

METHODS

This manuscript reports 1 yr follow-up of patients from a single-centre RCT, including a post-hoc secondary outcome (1 yr mortality) in addition to pre-specified secondary outcomes. The trial included patients aged 60 yr or older undergoing surgery with general anaesthesia between January 2015 and May 2018. Patients were randomised to receive EEG-guided anaesthesia or usual care. The previously reported primary outcome was postoperative delirium. The outcome of the current study was all-cause 1 yr mortality.

RESULTS

Of the 1232 patients enrolled, 614 patients were randomised to EEG-guided anaesthesia and 618 patients to usual care. One year mortality was 57/591 (9.6%) in the guided group and 62/601 (10.3%) in the usual-care group. No significant difference in mortality was observed (adjusted absolute risk difference, -0.7%; 99.5% confidence interval, -5.8% to 4.3%; P=0.68).

CONCLUSIONS

An EEG-guided anaesthesia intervention aiming to decrease duration of EEG suppression during surgery did not significantly decrease 1 yr mortality. These findings, in the context of other studies, do not provide supportive evidence for EEG-guided anaesthesia to prevent intermediate term postoperative death.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

NCT02241655.

Factors predictive of 90-day mortality after surgical resection for oral cavity cancer: Development of a recursive partitioning analysis for risk stratification

BACKGROUND

Factors that influence postoperative mortality (POM) have been identified, but a predictive model to guide clinicians treating oral cavity cancer (OCC) has not been well established.

METHODS

Patients with OCC undergoing upfront surgical resection were included. Primary outcome was 90-day POM (90dPOM).

RESULTS

33 845 were identified using the National Cancer Database. Rate of 90dPOM was 3.2%. Predictors of higher 90dPOM include older age, higher comorbidity scores, nonprivate insurance, lower income, treatment in an academic facility, higher T- and N-classification, radical excision, and presence of positive margins. On RPA, two high-risk (90dPOM > 10%) patient subsets were identified: patients ≥80 years of age with T3-4 disease and patients <80 years, with any comorbidity and T3-4, N2-3 disease.

CONCLUSIONS

We identified a subset of patients in this cohort who are at high risk for 90dPOM. These patients may warrant additional perioperative and postoperative monitoring in addition to better preoperative assessment and screening.

Predictive Values of Preoperative Characteristics for 30-Day Mortality in Traumatic Hip Fracture Patients

Hip fracture patients have a high risk of mortality after surgery, with 30-day postoperative rates as high as 10%. This study aimed to explore the predictive ability of preoperative characteristics in traumatic hip fracture patients as they relate to 30-day postoperative mortality using readily available variables in clinical practice. All adult patients who underwent primary emergency hip fracture surgery in Sweden between 2008 and 2017 were included in the analysis. Associations between the possible predictors and 30-day mortality was performed using a multivariate logistic regression (LR) model; the bidirectional stepwise method was used for variable selection. An LR model and convolutional neural network (CNN) were then fitted for prediction. The relative importance of individual predictors was evaluated using the permutation importance and Gini importance. A total of 134,915 traumatic hip fracture patients were included in the study. The CNN and LR models displayed an acceptable predictive ability for predicting 30-day postoperative mortality using a test dataset, displaying an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of as high as 0.76. The variables with the highest importance in prediction were age, sex, hypertension, dementia, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) classification, and the Revised Cardiac Risk Index (RCRI). Both the CNN and LR models achieved an acceptable performance in identifying patients at risk of mortality 30 days after hip fracture surgery. The most important variables for prediction, based on the variables used in the current study are age, hypertension, dementia, sex, ASA classification, and RCRI.

Postoperative Mortality in Patients With Cirrhosis: Reconsidering Expectations

BACKGROUND

A diagnosis of cirrhosis increases a patient's risk of postoperative mortality. Surgeons are reticent to operate when cirrhosis is known unless no option is available. This study aimed to identify the modern perioperative risk in cirrhotic patients undergoing intervention under general anesthesia for non-transplant operations.

METHODS

A retrospective chart review was conducted utilizing the Rush Medical Center electronic medical record. All patients over 18 years of age with a diagnosis of cirrhosis undergoing intervention between 2009 and 2019 were reviewed. 90-day mortality rates in patients grouped by Child's score, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease with sodium incorporated (MELDNa) were compared to previously accepted rates.

RESULTS

93 patients (46% women) aged 22-72 years of all Child-Turcot-Pugh (CTP) (40% A, 36% B, and 25% C) classifications and MELD/MELDNa ranging 6-40 were analyzed. 90-day mortality of the entire population was 16%, significantly lower than expected based on CTP score (16% vs. 32%; P = .0005), MELD (16% vs. 41%; P < .0001), and MELDNa (16% vs. 46.8%; P < .0001). This was also true for CTP-B patients (12% vs. 30%; P = .025), CTP-C patients (35% vs. 70%; P = .0002), patients with MELD >14 (27% vs. 70%; P < .001), and patients with MELDNa >14 (23% vs. 70%; P < .0001).

CONCLUSION

Data indicate that perioperative mortality is lower than widely accepted. This suggests the need for a national database study using a representative population to determine the risk of mortality for patients with cirrhosis having surgery in recent times. Accurate estimation of this risk allows for meaningful discussion between physicians and patients when deciding to proceed with elective, necessary operations.

Hospital volume is associated with postoperative mortality after radical cystectomy for treatment of bladder cancer

Objective

To contribute to the debate regarding the minimum volume of radical cystectomies (RCs) that a hospital should perform by evaluating the association between hospital volume (HV) and postoperative mortality.

Patients and Methods

Patients who underwent RC for bladder cancer between 1 January 2008 and 31 December 2018 were retrospectively identified from the Netherlands Cancer Registry. To create a calendar‐year independent measure, the HV of RCs was calculated per patient by counting the RCs performed in the same hospital in the 12 months preceding surgery. The relationship of HV with 30‐ and 90‐day mortality was assessed by logistic regression with a non‐linear spline function for HV as a continuous variable, which was adjusted for age, tumour, node and metastasis (TNM) stage, and neoadjuvant treatment.

Results

The median (interquartile range; range) HV among the 9287 RC‐treated patients was 19 (12–27; 1–75). Of all the included patients, 208 (2.2%) and 518 (5.6%) died within 30 and 90 days after RC, respectively. After adjustment for age, TNM stage and neoadjuvant therapy, postoperative mortality slightly increased between an HV of 0 and an HV of 25 RCs and steadily decreased from an HV of 30 onwards. The lowest risks of postoperative mortality were observed for the highest volumes.

Conclusion

This paper, based on high‐quality data from a large nationwide population‐based cohort, suggests that increasing the RC volume criteria beyond 30 RCs annually could further decrease postoperative mortality. Based on these results, the volume criterion of 20 RCs annually, as recently recommended by the European Association of Urology Guideline Panel, might therefore be reconsidered.

Comparing the Effects of General Versus Regional Anesthesia on Postoperative Mortality in Total and Partial Hip Arthroplasty

Purpose

Total hip arthroplasty (THA) and partial hip arthroplasty (PHA) are performed in patients with hip joint dysfunction such as osteoarthritis or hip fractures and are associated with complications including mortality. There is a lack of evidence in the literature regarding whether the type of anesthesia (regional vs. general) is associated with increased postoperative mortality in patients undergoing hip arthroplasty. The present study compares early postoperative mortality between general or regional anesthesia administered to patients undergoing either THA or PHA.

Methods

A retrospective cohort was assembled using the 2015-2016 American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database. Adult patients undergoing hip arthroplasty under general or regional anesthesia were included. Patients were excluded if receiving any other type of anesthesia, as well as having an American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) physical status classification score ≥ 4, preoperative acute renal failure, severe congestive heart failure (CHF), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), or ascites. Adjusted odds of 30 days all-cause postoperative mortality according to the type of anesthesia were estimated by fitting multiple logistic regression models that included potential confounders and effect modifiers.

Results

A total of 60,897 patients were included in the study. Given that the interaction between the type of anesthesia and the type of arthroplasty was statistically significant, separated models were fitted for each type of arthroplasty. There was no evidence of an association between type of anesthesia and postoperative mortality in hip arthroplasty patients regardless of whether the arthroplasty was partial (odds ratio {OR} = 0.85; confidence interval {CI} 0.59-1.22) or total (OR = 0.68; CI 0.43-1.08).

Conclusion

The overall early postoperative mortality in adult hip arthroplasty patients is low in the absence of risk factors such as severe CHF, COPD, ascites, acute renal failure, and ASA score of 4 or higher. Our findings suggest there is no association between the type of anesthesia received (general vs. regional) and early postoperative mortality rates in patients undergoing hip arthroplasty, regardless of type (total vs. partial).

Invasive central venous monitoring during hepatic resection: unnecessary for most patients

BACKGROUND

Low central venous pressure (LCVP) anesthesia reduces blood loss during hepatic resection and historically has required a central venous catheter (CVC) for intra-operative monitoring. The aim of this study was to assess the effect of an evolution of practice to CVP monitoring without CVC on the perioperative outcomes after liver resection.

METHODS

A retrospective study of partial hepatectomy patients from 2007 to 2016 who were over 18 years of age was performed.

RESULTS

Of 3903 patients having partial hepatectomy, 2445 (62%) met inclusion criteria, and 404 (16%) had a CVC. Overall morbidity (33% non-CVC vs 38% CVC P = 0.076), major morbidity (16% vs 20% P = 0.067), and infective complications (superficial wound infection) 3% vs 4% P = 0.429; deep wound infection (5% vs 6% P = 0.720) did not differ between the two groups. In multivariate analysis, superficial wound infection, deep wound infection, and major complications were not associated with the presence of a CVC. All-cause mortality at 90 days was associated with CVC presence (OR 3.45, CI 1.74-6.85, P = 0.001) and age (OR 1.05, CI 1.02-1.08, P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Since the adoption of non-invasive CVP monitoring, there has been no increase in adverse peri-operative outcomes.

Morbidity and mortality after major large bowel resection of non-malignant polyp among participants in a population-based screening program

Background and aims

Colonoscopy following positive fecal occult blood screening may detect non-malignant polyps deemed to require major large bowel resection. We aimed to estimate the major inpatient morbidity and mortality associated with major resection of non-malignant polyps detected at colonoscopy following positive guaiac fecal occult blood screening in Ontario's population-based colorectal screening program.

Methods

We identified those without a diagnosis of colorectal cancer in the Ontario Cancer Registry ≤24 months following the date of colonoscopy prompted by positive fecal occult blood screening between 2008 and 2017, who underwent a major large bowel resection ≤24 months after the colonoscopy, with a diagnosis code for non-malignant polyp, in the absence of a code for any other large bowel diagnosis. We extracted records of major inpatient complications and readmissions ≤30 days following resection. We computed mortality within 90 days following resection.

Results

For those undergoing colonoscopy ≤6 months following positive guaiac fecal occult blood screening, 420/127,872 (0.03%) underwent major large bowel resection for a non-malignant polyp. In 50/420 (11.9%), the resection included one or more rectosigmoid or rectal polyps, with or without a colonic polyp. There were one or more major inpatient complications or readmissions within 30 days in 117/420 (27.9%). Death occurred within 90 days in 6/420 (1.4%).

Conclusions

Serious inpatient complications and readmissions following major large bowel resection for non-malignant colorectal polyps are common, but mortality ≤90 days following resection is low. These outcomes should be considered as unintended adverse consequences of population-based colorectal screening programs.

Few and feasible preoperative variables can identify high-risk surgical patients: derivation and validation of the Ex-Care risk model

BACKGROUND

The development of feasible preoperative risk tools is desirable, especially for low-middle income countries with limited resources and complex surgical settings. This study aimed to derive and validate a preoperative risk model (Ex-Care model) for postoperative mortality and compare its performance with current risk tools.

METHODS

A multivariable logistic regression model predicting in-hospital mortality was developed using a large Brazilian surgical cohort. Patient and perioperative predictors were considered. Its performance was compared with the Charlson comorbidity index (CCI), Revised Cardiac Risk Index (RCRI), and the Surgical Outcome Risk Tool (SORT).

RESULTS

The derivation cohort included 16 618 patients. In-hospital death occurred in 465 patients (2.8%). Age, with adjusted splines, degree of procedure (major vs non-major), ASA physical status, and urgency were entered in a final model. It showed high discrimination with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.926 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.91-0.93). It had superior accuracy to the RCRI (AUROC, 0.90 vs 0.76; P<0.01) and similar to the CCI (0.90 vs 0.82; P=0.06) and SORT models (0.90 vs 0.92; P=0.2) in the temporal validation cohort of 1173 patients. Calibration was adequate in both development (Hosmer-Lemeshow, 9.26; P=0.41) and temporal validation cohorts (Hosmer-Lemeshow 5.29; P=0.71).

CONCLUSIONS

The Ex-Care risk model proved very efficient at identifying high-risk surgical patients. Although multicentre studies are needed, it should have particular value in low resource settings to better inform perioperative health policy and clinical decision-making.

Drug Use and Postoperative Mortality Following Valve Surgery for Infective Endocarditis: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Infective endocarditis (IE) often requires surgical intervention. An increasingly common cause of IE is injection drug use (IDU-IE). There is conflicting evidence on whether postoperative mortality differs between people with IDU-IE and people with IE from etiologies other than injection drug use (non-IDU-IE). In this manuscript, we compare short-term postoperative mortality in IDU-IE vs non-IDU-IE through systematic review and meta-analysis.

METHODS

The review was conducted according to the Cochrane Handbook for Systematic Reviews of Interventions and the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. Publication databases were queried for key terms included in articles up to September 2017. Randomized controlled trials, prospective cohorts, or retrospective cohorts that reported on 30-day mortality or in-hospital/operative mortality following valve surgery and that compared outcomes between IDU-IE and non-IDU-IE were included.

RESULTS

Thirteen studies with 1593 patients (n = 341 [21.4%] IDU-IE) were included in the meta-analysis. IDU-IE patients more frequently had tricuspid valve infection, Staphylococcus infection, and heart failure before surgery. Meta-analysis revealed no statistically significant difference in 30-day postsurgical mortality or in-hospital mortality between the 2 groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite differing preoperative clinical characteristics, early postoperative mortality does not differ between IDU-IE and non-IDU-IE patients who undergo valve surgery. Future research on long-term outcomes following valve replacement is needed to identify opportunities for improved healthcare delivery with IDU-IE.

Intraoperative Blood Pressure Variability Predicts Postoperative Mortality in Non-Cardiac Surgery-A Prospective Observational Cohort Study

Little is known about the clinical importance of blood pressure variability (BPV) during anesthesia in non-cardiac surgery. We sought to investigate the impact of intraoperative BPV on postoperative mortality in non-cardiac surgery subjects, taking into account patient- and procedure-related variables. This prospective observational study covered 835 randomly selected patients who underwent gastrointestinal (n = 221), gynecological (n = 368) and neurosurgical (n = 246) procedures. Patient’s and procedure’s risks were assessed according to the validated tools and guidelines. Blood pressure (systolic, SBP, and diastolic, DBP) was recorded in five-minute intervals during anesthesia. Mean arterial pressure (MAP) was assessed. Individual coefficients of variation (Cv) were calculated. Postoperative 30-day mortality was considered the outcome. Median SBP_Cv was 11.2% (IQR 8.4–14.6), DBP_Cv was 12.7% (IQR 9.8–16.3) and MAP_Cv was 10.96% (IQR 8.26–13.86). Mortality was 2%. High SBP_Cv (i.e., ≥11.9%) was associated with increased mortality by 4.5 times (OR = 4.55; 95% CI 1.48–13.93; p = 0.008). High DBP_Cv (i.e., ≥22.4%) was associated with increased mortality by nearly 10 times (OR = 9.73; 95% CI 3.26–28.99; p < 0.001). High MAP_Cv (i.e., ≥13.6%) was associated with increased mortality by 3.5 times (OR = 3.44; 95% CI 1.34–8.83; p = 0.01). In logistic regression, it was confirmed that the outcome was dependent on both SBPV and DBPV, after adjustment for perioperative variables, with AUCSBP_Cv = 0.884 (95% CI 0.859–0.906; p < 0.001) and AUCDBP_Cv = 0.897 (95% CI 0.873–0.918; p < 0.001). Therefore, intraoperative BPV may be considered a prognostic factor for the postoperative mortality in non-cardiac surgery, and DBPV seems more accurate in outcome prediction than SBPV.