Comparative Effectiveness of Baloxavir Marboxil and Oseltamivir Treatment in Reducing Household Transmission of Influenza: A Post Hoc Analysis of the BLOCKSTONE Trial

BACKGROUND

The transmission of influenza virus in households, especially by children, is a major route of infection. Prior studies suggest that timely antiviral treatment of ill cases may reduce infection in household contacts. The aim of the study was to compare the effects of oseltamivir (OTV) and baloxavir marboxil (BXM) treatment of index cases on the secondary attack rate (SAR) of influenza within household.

METHODS

A post hoc analysis was done in BLOCKSTONE trial-a placebo-controlled, double-blinded post-exposure prophylaxis of BXM. Data were derived from the laboratory-confirmed index cases' household contacts who received placebo in the trial and also from household members who did not participate in the trial but completed illness questionnaires. To assess the SAR of household members, multivariate analyses adjusted for factors including age, vaccination status, and household size were performed and compared between contacts of index cases treated with BXM or OTV.

RESULTS

In total, 185 index cases (116 treated with BXM and 69 treated with OTV) and 410 household contacts (201 from trial, 209 by questionnaire) were included. The Poisson regression modeling showed that the SAR in household contacts of index cases treated with BXM and OTV was 10.8% and 18.5%, respectively; the adjusted relative reduction in SAR was 41.8% (95% confidence interval: 1.0%-65.7%, p = 0.0456) greater with BXM than OTV. Similar reductions were found in contacts from the trial and those included by questionnaire.

CONCLUSION

BXM treatment of index cases appeared to result in a greater reduction in secondary household transmission than OTV treatment.

The airborne transmission of viruses causes tight transmission bottlenecks

The transmission bottleneck describes the number of viral particles that initiate an infection in a new host. Previous studies have used genome sequence data to suggest that transmission bottlenecks for influenza and SARS-CoV-2 involve few viral particles, but the general principles of virus transmission are not fully understood. Here we show that, across a broad range of circumstances, tight transmission bottlenecks are a simple consequence of the physical process of airborne viral transmission. We use mathematical modelling to describe the physical process of the emission and inhalation of infectious particles, deriving the result that that the great majority of transmission bottlenecks involve few viral particles. While exceptions to this rule exist, the circumstances needed to create these exceptions are likely very rare. We thus provide a physical explanation for previous inferences of bottleneck size, while predicting that tight transmission bottlenecks prevail more generally in respiratory virus transmission.

Bat-borne H9N2 influenza virus evades MxA restriction and exhibits efficient replication and transmission in ferrets

Influenza A viruses (IAVs) of subtype H9N2 have reached an endemic stage in poultry farms in the Middle East and Asia. As a result, human infections with avian H9N2 viruses have been increasingly reported. In 2017, an H9N2 virus was isolated for the first time from Egyptian fruit bats (Rousettus aegyptiacus). Phylogenetic analyses revealed that bat H9N2 is descended from a common ancestor dating back centuries ago. However, the H9 and N2 sequences appear to be genetically similar to current avian IAVs, suggesting recent reassortment events. These observations raise the question of the zoonotic potential of the mammal-adapted bat H9N2. Here, we investigate the infection and transmission potential of bat H9N2 in vitro and in vivo, the ability to overcome the antiviral activity of the human MxA protein, and the presence of N2-specific cross-reactive antibodies in human sera. We show that bat H9N2 has high replication and transmission potential in ferrets, efficiently infects human lung explant cultures, and is able to evade antiviral inhibition by MxA in transgenic B6 mice. Together with its low antigenic similarity to the N2 of seasonal human strains, bat H9N2 fulfils key criteria for pre-pandemic IAVs.

Cross-species spill-over potential of the H9N2 bat influenza A virus

In 2017, a novel influenza A virus (IAV) was isolated from an Egyptian fruit bat. In contrast to other bat influenza viruses, the virus was related to avian A(H9N2) viruses and was probably the result of a bird-to-bat transmission event. To determine the cross-species spill-over potential, we biologically characterize features of A/bat/Egypt/381OP/2017(H9N2). The virus has a pH inactivation profile and neuraminidase activity similar to those of human-adapted IAVs. Despite the virus having an avian virus-like preference for α2,3 sialic acid receptors, it is unable to replicate in male mallard ducks; however, it readily infects ex-vivo human respiratory cell cultures and replicates in the lungs of female mice. A/bat/Egypt/381OP/2017 replicates in the upper respiratory tract of experimentally-infected male ferrets featuring direct-contact and airborne transmission. These data suggest that the bat A(H9N2) virus has features associated with increased risk to humans without a shift to a preference for α2,6 sialic acid receptors.

The evolution, pathogenicity and transmissibility of quadruple reassortant H1N2 swine influenza virus in China: A potential threat to public health

Swine are regarded as "intermediate hosts" or "mixing vessels" of influenza viruses, capable of generating strains with pandemic potential. From 2020 to 2021, we conducted surveillance on swine H1N2 influenza (swH1N2) viruses in swine farms located in Guangdong, Yunnan, and Guizhou provinces in southern China, as well as Henan and Shandong provinces in northern China. We systematically analyzed the evolution and pathogenicity of swH1N2 isolates, and characterized their replication and transmission abilities. The isolated viruses are quadruple reassortant H1N2 viruses containing genes from pdm/09 H1N1 (PB2, PB1, PA and NP genes), triple-reassortant swine (NS gene), Eurasian Avian-like (HA and M genes), and recent human H3N2 (NA gene) lineages. The NA, PB2, and NP of SW/188/20 and SW/198/20 show high gene similarities to A/Guangdong/Yue Fang277/2017 (H3N2). The HA gene of swH1N2 exhibits a high evolutionary rate. The five swH1N2 isolates replicate efficiently in human, canine, and swine cells, as well as in the turbinate, trachea, and lungs of mice. A/swine/Shandong/198/2020 strain efficiently replicates in the respiratory tract of pigs and effectively transmitted among them. Collectively, these current swH1N2 viruses possess zoonotic potential, highlighting the need for strengthened surveillance of swH1N2 viruses.

The effect of nonpharmaceutical interventions on influenza virus transmission

Background

The use of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) during severe acute respiratory syndrome 2019 (COVID-19) outbreaks may influence the spread of influenza viruses. This study aimed to evaluate the impact of NPIs against SARS-CoV-2 on the epidemiological features of the influenza season in China.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective observational study analyzing influenza monitoring data obtained from the China National Influenza Center between 2011 and 2023. We compared the changes in influenza-positive patients in the pre-COVID-19 epidemic, during the COVID-19 epidemic, and post-COVID-19 epidemic phases to evaluate the effect of NPIs on influenza virus transmission.

Results

NPIs targeting COVID-19 significantly suppressed influenza activity in China from 2019 to 2022. In the seventh week after the implementation of the NPIs, the number of influenza-positive patients decreased by 97.46% in southern regions of China and 90.31% in northern regions of China. However, the lifting of these policies in December 2022 led to an unprecedented surge in influenza-positive cases in autumn and winter from 2022 to 2023. The percentage of positive influenza cases increased by 206.41% (p < 0.001), with high positivity rates reported in both the northern and southern regions of China.

Conclusion

Our findings suggest that NPIs against SARS-CoV-2 are effective at controlling influenza epidemics but may compromise individuals' immunity to the virus.

A naturally occurring HA-stabilizing amino acid (HA1-Y17) in an A(H9N2) low-pathogenic influenza virus contributes to airborne transmission

IMPORTANCE

Despite the accumulation of evidence showing that airborne transmissible influenza A virus (IAV) typically has a lower pH threshold for hemagglutinin (HA) fusion activation, the underlying mechanism for such a link remains unclear. In our study, by using a pair of isogenic recombinant A(H9N2) viruses with a phenotypical difference in virus airborne transmission in a ferret model due to an acid-destabilizing mutation (HA1-Y17H) in the HA, we demonstrate that an acid-stable A(H9N2) virus possesses a multitude of advantages over its less stable counterpart, including better fitness in the ferret respiratory tract, more effective aerosol emission from infected animals, and improved host susceptibility. Our study provides supporting evidence for the requirement of acid stability in efficient airborne transmission of IAV and sheds light on fundamental mechanisms for virus airborne transmission.

Epidemiological features of seasonal influenza transmission among 11 climate zones in Chinese Mainland

BACKGROUND

Previous studies provided some evidence of meteorological factors influence seasonal influenza transmission patterns varying across regions and latitudes. However, research on seasonal influenza activities based on climate zones are still in lack. This study aims to utilize the ecological-based Köppen Geiger climate zones classification system to compare the spatial and temporal epidemiological characteristics of seasonal influenza in Chinese Mainland and assess the feasibility of developing an early warning system.

METHODS

Weekly influenza cases number from 2014 to 2019 at the county and city level were sourced from China National Notifiable Infectious Disease Report Information System. Epidemic temporal indices, time series seasonality decomposition, spatial modelling theories including Moran's I and local indicators of spatial association were applied to identify the spatial and temporal patterns of influenza transmission.

RESULTS

All climate zones had peaks in Winter-Spring season. Arid, desert, cold (BWk) showed up the first peak. Only Tropical, savannah (Aw) and Temperate, dry winter with hot summer (Cwa) zones had unique summer peak. Temperate, no dry season and hot summer (Cfa) zone had highest average incidence rate (IR) at 1.047/100,000. The Global Moran's I showed that average IR had significant clustered trend (z = 53.69, P < 0.001), with local Moran's I identified high-high cluster in Cfa and Cwa. IR differed among three age groups between climate zones (0-14 years old: F = 26.80, P < 0.001; 15-64 years old: F = 25.04, P < 0.001; Above 65 years old: F = 5.27, P < 0.001). Age group 0-14 years had highest average IR in Cwa and Cfa (IR = 6.23 and 6.21) with unique dual peaks in winter and spring season showed by seasonality decomposition.

CONCLUSIONS

Seasonal influenza exhibited distinct spatial and temporal patterns in different climate zones. Seasonal influenza primarily emerged in BWk, subsequently in Cfa and Cwa. Cfa, Cwa and BSk pose high risk for seasonal influenza epidemics. The research finds will provide scientific evidence for developing seasonal influenza early warning system based on climate zones.

Progress on viral and host determinants of influenza A virus species specificity

Influenza A viruses have a wide range of hosts and are highly infectious, which can cause zoonotic diseases and pose a serious public health threat to human safety. An influenza pandemic could outbreak if new strains gain the ability of human-to-human transmission, either by genetic mutation or by gene reassortment. It is an urgent issue for the scientific community to reveal the genetic basis and molecular mechanisms underlying the interspecies transmission of influenza viruses, which will provide important implications for the effective monitoring and prevention of potential influenza pandemics. In this review, we summarize the molecular determinants of influenza viruses for host adaptation, and highlight the advances in the gene mutations of the virus itself and the interaction between virus and host factors. This will help to make a theoretical reserve for the next influenza pandemic and find new strategies to fight against influenza.

BTN3A3 evasion promotes the zoonotic potential of influenza A viruses

Spillover events of avian influenza A viruses (IAVs) to humans could represent the first step in a future pandemic1. Several factors that limit the transmission and replication of avian IAVs in mammals have been identified. There are several gaps in our understanding to predict which virus lineages are more likely to cross the species barrier and cause disease in humans1. Here, we identified human BTN3A3 (butyrophilin subfamily 3 member A3)2 as a potent inhibitor of avian IAVs but not human IAVs. We determined that BTN3A3 is expressed in human airways and its antiviral activity evolved in primates. We show that BTN3A3 restriction acts primarily at the early stages of the virus life cycle by inhibiting avian IAV RNA replication. We identified residue 313 in the viral nucleoprotein (NP) as the genetic determinant of BTN3A3 sensitivity (313F or, rarely, 313L in avian viruses) or evasion (313Y or 313V in human viruses). However, avian IAV serotypes, such as H7 and H9, that spilled over into humans also evade BTN3A3 restriction. In these cases, BTN3A3 evasion is due to substitutions (N, H or Q) in NP residue 52 that is adjacent to residue 313 in the NP structure3. Thus, sensitivity or resistance to BTN3A3 is another factor to consider in the risk assessment of the zoonotic potential of avian influenza viruses.

Assessing intervention effects in a randomized trial within a social network

Studies of social networks provide unique opportunities to assess the causal effects of interventions that may impact more of the population than just those intervened on directly. Such effects are sometimes called peer or spillover effects, and may exist in the presence of interference, that is, when one individual's treatment affects another individual's outcome. Randomization-based inference (RI) methods provide a theoretical basis for causal inference in randomized studies, even in the presence of interference. In this article, we consider RI of the intervention effect in the eX-FLU trial, a randomized study designed to assess the effect of a social distancing intervention on influenza-like-illness transmission in a connected network of college students. The approach considered enables inference about the effect of the social distancing intervention on the per-contact probability of influenza-like-illness transmission in the observed network. The methods allow for interference between connected individuals and for heterogeneous treatment effects. The proposed methods are evaluated empirically via simulation studies, and then applied to data from the eX-FLU trial.

Household Transmission of Influenza A Viruses in 2021-2022

IMPORTANCE

Influenza virus infections declined globally during the COVID-19 pandemic. Loss of natural immunity from lower rates of influenza infection and documented antigenic changes in circulating viruses may have resulted in increased susceptibility to influenza virus infection during the 2021-2022 influenza season.

OBJECTIVE

To compare the risk of influenza virus infection among household contacts of patients with influenza during the 2021-2022 influenza season with risk of influenza virus infection among household contacts during influenza seasons before the COVID-19 pandemic in the US.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This prospective study of influenza transmission enrolled households in 2 states before the COVID-19 pandemic (2017-2020) and in 4 US states during the 2021-2022 influenza season. Primary cases were individuals with the earliest laboratory-confirmed influenza A(H3N2) virus infection in a household. Household contacts were people living with the primary cases who self-collected nasal swabs daily for influenza molecular testing and completed symptom diaries daily for 5 to 10 days after enrollment.

EXPOSURES

Household contacts living with a primary case.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Relative risk of laboratory-confirmed influenza A(H3N2) virus infection in household contacts during the 2021-2022 season compared with prepandemic seasons. Risk estimates were adjusted for age, vaccination status, frequency of interaction with the primary case, and household density. Subgroup analyses by age, vaccination status, and frequency of interaction with the primary case were also conducted.

RESULTS

During the prepandemic seasons, 152 primary cases (median age, 13 years; 3.9% Black; 52.0% female) and 353 household contacts (median age, 33 years; 2.8% Black; 54.1% female) were included and during the 2021-2022 influenza season, 84 primary cases (median age, 10 years; 13.1% Black; 52.4% female) and 186 household contacts (median age, 28.5 years; 14.0% Black; 63.4% female) were included in the analysis. During the prepandemic influenza seasons, 20.1% (71/353) of household contacts were infected with influenza A(H3N2) viruses compared with 50.0% (93/186) of household contacts in 2021-2022. The adjusted relative risk of A(H3N2) virus infection in 2021-2022 was 2.31 (95% CI, 1.86-2.86) compared with prepandemic seasons.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Among cohorts in 5 US states, there was a significantly increased risk of household transmission of influenza A(H3N2) in 2021-2022 compared with prepandemic seasons. Additional research is needed to understand reasons for this association.

Transmission of Human Influenza A Virus in Pigs Selects for Adaptive Mutations on the HA Gene

Influenza A viruses (FLUAV) cause respiratory diseases in many host species, including humans and pigs. The spillover of FLUAV between swine and humans has been a concern for both public health and the swine industry. With the emergence of the triple reassortant internal gene (TRIG) constellation, establishment of human-origin FLUAVs in pigs has become more common, leading to increased viral diversity. However, little is known about the adaptation processes that are needed for a human-origin FLUAV to transmit and become established in pigs. We generated a reassortant FLUAV (VIC11pTRIG) containing surface gene segments from a human FLUAV strain and internal gene segments from the 2009 pandemic and TRIG FLUAV lineages and demonstrated that it can replicate and transmit in pigs. Sequencing and variant analysis identified three mutants that emerged during replication in pigs, which were mapped near the receptor binding site of the hemagglutinin (HA). The variants replicated more efficiently in differentiated swine tracheal cells compared to the virus containing the wildtype human-origin HA, and one of them was present in all contact pigs. These results show that variants are selected quickly after replication of human-origin HA in pigs, leading to improved fitness in the swine host, likely contributing to transmission. IMPORTANCE Influenza A viruses cause respiratory disease in several species, including humans and pigs. The bidirectional transmission of FLUAV between humans and pigs plays a significant role in the generation of novel viral strains, greatly impacting viral epidemiology. However, little is known about the evolutionary processes that allow human FLUAV to become established in pigs. In this study, we generated reassortant viruses containing human seasonal HA and neuraminidase (NA) on different constellations of internal genes and tested their ability to replicate and transmit in pigs. We demonstrated that a virus containing a common internal gene constellation currently found in U.S. swine was able to transmit efficiently via the respiratory route. We identified a specific amino acid substitution that was fixed in the respiratory contact pigs that was associated with improved replication in primary swine tracheal epithelial cells, suggesting it was crucial for the transmissibility of the human virus in pigs.

Fair warning

"Swientists" hunt for influenza virus at hog shows, hoping to cut off the next pandemic at the pen.

Simulating respiratory disease transmission within and between classrooms to assess pandemic management strategies at schools

The global spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has emphasized the need for evidence-based strategies for the safe operation of schools during pandemics that balance infection risk with the society's responsibility of allowing children to attend school. Due to limited empirical data, existing analyses assessing school-based interventions in pandemic situations often impose strong assumptions, for example, on the relationship between class size and transmission risk, which could bias the estimated effect of interventions, such as split classes and staggered attendance. To fill this gap in school outbreak studies, we parameterized an individual-based model that accounts for heterogeneous contact rates within and between classes and grades to a multischool outbreak data of influenza. We then simulated school outbreaks of respiratory infectious diseases of ongoing threat (i.e., COVID-19) and potential threat (i.e., pandemic influenza) under a variety of interventions (changing class structures, symptom screening, regular testing, cohorting, and responsive class closures). Our results suggest that interventions changing class structures (e.g., reduced class sizes) may not be effective in reducing the risk of major school outbreaks upon introduction of a case and that other precautionary measures (e.g., screening and isolation) need to be employed. Class-level closures in response to detection of a case were also suggested to be effective in reducing the size of an outbreak.

Influenza viruses and coronaviruses: Knowns, unknowns, and common research challenges

The development of safe and effective vaccines in a record time after the emergence of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is a remarkable achievement, partly based on the experience gained from multiple viral outbreaks in the past decades. However, the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) crisis also revealed weaknesses in the global pandemic response and large gaps that remain in our knowledge of the biology of coronaviruses (CoVs) and influenza viruses, the 2 major respiratory viruses with pandemic potential. Here, we review current knowns and unknowns of influenza viruses and CoVs, and we highlight common research challenges they pose in 3 areas: the mechanisms of viral emergence and adaptation to humans, the physiological and molecular determinants of disease severity, and the development of control strategies. We outline multidisciplinary approaches and technological innovations that need to be harnessed in order to improve preparedeness to the next pandemic.

Frequency and patterns of exposure to live poultry and the potential risk of avian influenza transmission to humans in urban Bangladesh

Avian influenza is endemic in Bangladesh, where greater than 90% of poultry are marketed through live poultry markets (LPMs). We conducted a population-based cross-sectional mobile telephone survey in urban Dhaka, Bangladesh to investigate the frequency and patterns of human exposure to live poultry in LPMs and at home. Among 1047 urban residents surveyed, 74.2% (95% CI 70.9-77.2) reported exposure to live poultry in the past year, with the majority of exposure occurring on a weekly basis. While visiting LPMs was less common amongst females (40.3%, 95% CI 35.0-45.8) than males (58.9%, 95% CI 54.0-63.5), females reported greater poultry exposure through food preparation, including defeathering (13.2%, 95% CI 9.5-17.9) and eviscerating (14.8%, 95% CI 11.2-19.4) (p < 0.001). A large proportion of the urban population is frequently exposed to live poultry in a setting where avian influenza viruses are endemic in LPMs. There is thus not only ample opportunity for spillover of avian influenza infections into humans in Dhaka, Bangladesh, but also greater potential for viral reassortment which could generate novel strains with pandemic potential.

Airborne Transmission of Avian Origin H9N2 Influenza A Viruses in Mammals

Influenza A viruses (IAV) are widespread viruses affecting avian and mammalian species worldwide. IAVs from avian species can be transmitted to mammals including humans and, thus, they are of inherent pandemic concern. Most of the efforts to understand the pathogenicity and transmission of avian origin IAVs have been focused on H5 and H7 subtypes due to their highly pathogenic phenotype in poultry. However, IAV of the H9 subtype, which circulate endemically in poultry flocks in some regions of the world, have also been associated with cases of zoonotic infections. In this review, we discuss the mammalian transmission of H9N2 and the molecular factors that are thought relevant for this spillover, focusing on the HA segment. Additionally, we discuss factors that have been associated with the ability of these viruses to transmit through the respiratory route in mammalian species. The summarized information shows that minimal amino acid changes in the HA and/or the combination of H9N2 surface genes with internal genes of human influenza viruses are enough for the generation of H9N2 viruses with the ability to transmit via aerosol.

Knowledge, attitudes, and practices for the use of seasonal influenza vaccination, healthcare workers, Costa Rica

INTRODUCTION

Annual seasonal influenza vaccination in healthcare workers prevents nosocomial transmission to patients, coworkers, and visitors, and reduces absenteeism. This study aimed to describe knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAP) of seasonal influenza vaccine among public healthcare workers attending patients in Costa Rica.

METHODOLOGY

We conducted a cross-sectional survey of healthcare personnel attending patients in public hospitals in 2017-2018. Frequency distributions of demographics, vaccination KAP, sources of information, clinical manifestations and reasons for non-vaccination were reported. Logistic regression was used to analyze associations between exposures of interest (demographics, sources of information, knowledge, attitudes towards vaccination) and self-reported influenza vaccination.

RESULTS

We surveyed 747 healthcare workers in 2017-2018. Of 706 participants who knew their vaccination status, 55.7% were vaccinated for seasonal influenza. Only 20.7% of participants knew the influenza vaccine was an inactivated virus, and 94.6% believed the vaccine causes flu-like symptoms. Factors associated with current influenza vaccination were vaccination in previous year (aOR: 8.13; 95% CI: 5.65-11.71) and believed influenza vaccination may be harmful (aOR: 0.62; 95% CI: 0.44-0.89). Reasons for non-vaccination included fear of adverse effects and access limitations.

CONCLUSIONS

Suboptimal influenza vaccination among healthcare workers may be attributed to misconceptions about the vaccine and limited engagement strategies focusing on healthcare workers. Appropriate interventions are needed to increase healthcare worker vaccination rates and improve their knowledge and beneficence, which would improve patient safety in hospitals.

Influenza Virus Infections in Cats

In the past, cats were considered resistant to influenza. Today, we know that they are susceptible to some influenza A viruses (IAVs) originating in other species. Usually, the outcome is only subclinical infection or a mild fever. However, outbreaks of feline disease caused by canine H3N2 IAV with fever, tachypnoea, sneezing, coughing, dyspnoea and lethargy are occasionally noted in shelters. In one such outbreak, the morbidity rate was 100% and the mortality rate was 40%. Recently, avian H7N2 IAV infection occurred in cats in some shelters in the USA, inducing mostly mild respiratory disease. Furthermore, cats are susceptible to experimental infection with the human H3N2 IAV that caused the pandemic in 1968. Several studies indicated that cats worldwide could be infected by H1N1 IAV during the subsequent human pandemic in 2009. In one shelter, severe cases with fatalities were noted. Finally, the highly pathogenic avian H5N1 IAV can induce a severe, fatal disease in cats, and can spread via cat-to-cat contact. In this review, the Advisory Board on Cat Diseases (ABCD), a scientifically independent board of experts in feline medicine from 11 European countries, summarises current data regarding the aetiology, epidemiology, pathogenesis, clinical picture, diagnostics, and control of feline IAV infections, as well as the zoonotic risks.

Accounting for the spread of vaccination behavior to optimize influenza vaccination programs

Vaccination is the most efficient means of preventing influenza infection and its complications. While previous studies have considered the externalities of vaccination that arise from indirect protection against influenza infection, they have often neglected another key factor-the spread of vaccination behavior among social contacts. We modeled influenza vaccination as a socially contagious process. Our model uses a contact network that we developed based on aggregated and anonymized mobility data from the cellphone devices of ~1.8 million users in Israel. We calibrated the model to high-quality longitudinal data of weekly influenza vaccination uptake and influenza diagnoses over seven years. We demonstrate how a simple coupled-transmission model accurately captures the spatiotemporal patterns of both influenza vaccination uptake and influenza incidence. Taking the identified complex underlying dynamics of these two processes into account, our model determined the optimal timing of influenza vaccination programs. Our simulation shows that in regions where high vaccination coverage is anticipated, vaccination uptake would be more rapid. Thus, our model suggests that vaccination programs should be initiated later in the season, to mitigate the effect of waning immunity from the vaccine. Our simulations further show that optimally timed vaccination programs can substantially reduce disease transmission without increasing vaccination uptake.

Asymptomatic transmission and high community burden of seasonal influenza in an urban and a rural community in South Africa, 2017-18 (PHIRST): a population cohort study

BACKGROUND

Data on influenza community burden and transmission are important to plan interventions especially in resource-limited settings. However, data are limited, particularly from low-income and middle-income countries. We aimed to evaluate the community burden and transmission of influenza in a rural and an urban setting in South Africa.

METHODS

In this prospective cohort study approximately 50 households were selected sequentially from both a rural setting (Agincourt, Mpumalanga Province, South Africa; with a health and sociodemographic surveillance system) and an urban setting (Klerksdorp, Northwest Province, South Africa; using global positioning system data), enrolled, and followed up for 10 months in 2017 and 2018. Different households were enrolled in each year. Households of more than two individuals in which 80% or more of the occupants agreed to participate were included in the study. Nasopharyngeal swabs were collected twice per week from participating household members irrespective of symptoms and tested for influenza using real-time RT-PCR. The primary outcome was the incidence of influenza infection, defined as the number of real-time RT-PCR-positive episodes divided by the person-time under observation. Household cumulative infection risk (HCIR) was defined as the number of subsequent infections within a household following influenza introduction.

FINDINGS

81 430 nasopharyngeal samples were collected from 1116 participants in 225 households (follow-up rate 88%). 917 (1%) tested positive for influenza; 178 (79%) of 225 households had one or more influenza-positive individual. The incidence of influenza infection was 43·6 (95% CI 39·8-47·7) per 100 person-seasons. 69 (17%) of 408 individuals who had one influenza infection had a repeat influenza infection during the same season. The incidence (67·4 per 100 person-seasons) and proportion with repeat infections (22 [23%] of 97 children) were highest in children younger than 5 years and decreased with increasing age (p<0·0001). Overall, 268 (56%) of 478 infections were symptomatic and 66 (14%) of 478 infections were medically attended. The overall HCIR was 10% (109 of 1088 exposed household members infected [95% CI 9-13%). Transmission (HCIR) from index cases was highest in participants aged 1-4 years (16%; 40 of 252 exposed household members) and individuals with two or more symptoms (17%; 68 of 396 exposed household members). Individuals with asymptomatic influenza transmitted infection to 29 (6%) of 509 household contacts. HIV infection, affecting 167 (16%) of 1075 individuals, was not associated with increased incidence or HCIR.

INTERPRETATION

Approximately half of influenza infections were symptomatic, with asymptomatic individuals transmitting influenza to 6% of household contacts. This suggests that strategies, such as quarantine and isolation, might be ineffective to control influenza. Vaccination of children, with the aim of reducing influenza transmission might be effective in African settings given the young population and high influenza burden.

FUNDING

US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Impact of COVID-19 outbreaks and interventions on influenza in China and the United States

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was detected in China during the 2019-2020 seasonal influenza epidemic. Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and behavioral changes to mitigate COVID-19 could have affected transmission dynamics of influenza and other respiratory diseases. By comparing 2019-2020 seasonal influenza activity through March 29, 2020 with the 2011-2019 seasons, we found that COVID-19 outbreaks and related NPIs may have reduced influenza in Southern and Northern China and the United States by 79.2% (lower and upper bounds: 48.8%-87.2%), 79.4% (44.9%-87.4%) and 67.2% (11.5%-80.5%). Decreases in influenza virus infection were also associated with the timing of NPIs. Without COVID-19 NPIs, influenza activity in China and the United States would likely have remained high during the 2019-2020 season. Our findings provide evidence that NPIs can partially mitigate seasonal and, potentially, pandemic influenza.