Impact of oral anticoagulation on the association between frailty and clinical outcomes in people with atrial fibrillation: nationwide primary care records on treatment analysis

AIMS

People with atrial fibrillation (AF) frequently live with frailty, which increases the risk of mortality and stroke. This study reports the association between oral anticoagulation (OAC) and outcomes for people with frailty, and whether there is overall net benefit from treatment in people with AF.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Retrospective open cohort electronic records study. Frailty was identified using the electronic frailty index. Primary care electronic health records of 89 996 adults with AF and CHA2DS2-Vasc score of ≥2 were linked with secondary care and mortality data in the Clinical Practice Research Database (CPRD) from 1 January 1998 to 30 November 2018. The primary outcome was a composite of death, stroke, systemic embolism, or major bleeding. Secondary outcomes were stroke, major bleeding, all-cause mortality, transient ischaemic attack, and falls. Of 89 996 participants, 71 256 (79.2%) were living with frailty. The prescription of OAC increased with degree of frailty. For patients not prescribed OAC, rates of the primary outcome increased alongside frailty category. Prescription of OAC was associated with a reduction in the primary outcome for each frailty category [adjusted hazard ratio, 95% confidence interval, no OAC as reference; fit: vitamin K antagonist (VKA) 0.69, 0.64-0.75, direct oral anticoagulant (DOAC) 0.42, 0.33-0.53; mild frailty: VKA 0.52, 0.50-0.54, DOAC 0.57, 0.52-0.63; moderate: VKA 0.54, 0.52-0.56, DOAC 0.57, 0.52-0.63; severe: VKA 0.48, 0.45-0.51, DOAC 0.58, 0.52-0.65], with cumulative incidence function effects greater for DOAC than VKA.

CONCLUSION

Frailty among people with AF is common. The OAC was associated with a reduction in the primary endpoint across all degrees of frailty.

MET-PREVENT: metformin to improve physical performance in older people with sarcopenia and physical prefrailty/frailty - protocol for a double-blind, randomised controlled proof-of-concept trial

INTRODUCTION

Skeletal muscle dysfunction is central to both sarcopenia and physical frailty, which are associated with a wide range of adverse outcomes including falls and fractures, longer hospital stays, dependency and the need for care. Resistance training may prevent and treat sarcopenia and physical frailty, but not everyone can or wants to exercise. Finding alternatives is critical to alleviate the burden of adverse outcomes associated with sarcopenia and physical frailty. This trial will provide proof-of-concept evidence as to whether metformin can improve physical performance in older people with sarcopenia and physical prefrailty or frailty.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

MET-PREVENT is a parallel group, double-blind, placebo-controlled proof-of-concept trial. Trial participants can participate from their own homes, including completing informed consent and screening assessments. Eligible participants with low grip strength or prolonged sit-to-stand time together with slow walk speed will be randomised to either oral metformin hydrochloride 500 mg tablets or matched placebo, taken three times a day for 4 months. The recruitment target is 80 participants from two secondary care hospitals in Newcastle and Gateshead, UK. Local primary care practices will act as participant identification centres. Randomisation will be performed using a web-based minimisation system with a random element, balancing on sex and baseline walk speed. Participants will be followed up for 4 months post-randomisation, with outcomes collected at baseline and 4 months. The primary outcome measure is the four metre walk speed at the 4-month follow-up visit.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The trial has been approved by the Liverpool NHS Research Ethics Committee (20/NW/0470), the Medicines and Healthcare Regulatory Authority (EudraCT 2020-004023-16) and the UK Health Research Authority (IRAS 275219). Results will be made available to participants, their families, patients with sarcopenia, the public, regional and national clinical teams, and the international scientific community.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN29932357.

Factors influencing symptom appraisal and help-seeking of older adults with possible cancer: a mixed-methods systematic review

BACKGROUND

The cancer burden falls predominantly on older (≥65 years) adults. Prompt presentation to primary care with cancer symptoms could result in earlier diagnosis. However, patient symptom appraisal and help-seeking decisions involving cancer symptoms are complex and may be further complicated in older adults.

AIM

To explore the effect of older age on patients' appraisal of possible cancer symptoms and their decision to seek help for these symptoms.

DESIGN AND SETTING

Mixed-methods systematic review.

METHOD

MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, PsycINFO, Cochrane Library, Web of Science Core Collection, ASSIA, the ISRCTN registry, and the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence were searched for studies on symptom appraisal and help-seeking decisions for cancer symptoms by adults aged ≥65 years. Studies were analysed using thematic synthesis and according to the Synthesis Without Meta-Analysis guidelines.

RESULTS

Eighty studies were included with a total of 32 995 participants. Studies suggested a possible association between increasing age and prolonged symptom appraisal interval. Reduced knowledge of cancer symptoms and differences in symptom interpretation may contribute to this prolonged interval. In contrast, in the current study a possible association was found between increasing age and prompt help-seeking. Themes affecting help-seeking in older adults included the influence of family and carers, competing priorities, fear, embarrassment, fatalism, comorbidities, a desire to avoid doctors, a perceived need to not waste doctors' time, and patient self-management of symptoms.

CONCLUSION

This review suggests that increasing age is associated with delayed cancer symptom appraisal. When symptoms are recognised as potentially serious, increasing age was associated with prompt help-seeking although other factors could prolong this. Policymakers, charities, and GPs should aim to ensure older adults are able to recognise potential symptoms of cancer and seek help promptly.

1071 INCIDENCE OF RECORDED OSTEOPOROSIS, OSTEOPENIA AND FRAGILITY FRACTURE IN OLDER PEOPLE: ANALYSIS OF UK PRIMARY CARE DATA

Introduction

Osteoporosis is common in later life, leading to fragility fractures associated with increased mortality, disability, and costs. There is a surprising lack of data regarding the incidence of osteoporosis. We aimed to estimate the incidence of recorded diagnosis of osteoporosis, osteopenia, and fragility fracture in older people, explore time trends in diagnosis, and differences by age, sex, and social deprivation.

Method

We used de-identified patient data provided as part of routine primary care (IQVIA Medical Research Database (IMRD). All patients aged 50-99y registered with THIN (The Health Improvement Network) participating practices between 1/1/2000–31/12/2018 were included. Crude incidence rates (IR) were estimated per 10,000 person-years (PY). We used Poisson regression to calculate adjusted Incidence Rate Ratios (IRR) accounting for sex, age, calendar year and deprivation.

Results

The IR of osteoporosis was significantly higher in women, 84.32 (95%CI 83.81–84.83) vs. 16.66 (95%CI 16.43–16.90) in men per 10,000PY. In women, recorded IR of osteoporosis reached a peak in 2009. In the adjusted model, older men in most deprived areas had a higher IRR of osteoporosis [1.67 (95% 1.59–1.74)] compared to those in least deprived areas. Women were more likely to be diagnosed with osteopenia compared to men, at any age. Incidence of osteopenia diagnosis increased over time. In the adjusted model, men in most deprived areas had a higher IRR of osteopenia [1.44 (95%CI 1.35–1.53)] compared to least deprived areas. The IR of fragility fracture was higher in women, 84.97 (95%CI 84.45–85.48) vs. 31.15 (95%CI 30.83–31.48) in men per 10,000PY. In the adjusted model, men in most deprived areas had an increased IRR of fragility fracture [1.53 (95%CI 1.48–1.59)] compared to least deprived areas.

Conclusion

Community bone health interventions might be targeted at populations at higher risk of fragility fractures, including older men living in socially deprived areas.

Clinical and cost-effectiveness of a personalised health promotion intervention enabling independence in older people with mild frailty (‘HomeHealth’) compared to treatment as usual: study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

Background

Frailty is clinically associated with multiple adverse outcomes, including reduced quality of life and functioning, falls, hospitalisations, moves to long-term care and mortality. Health services commonly focus on the frailest, with highest levels of need. However, evidence suggests that frailty is likely to be more reversible in people who are less frail. Evidence is emerging on what interventions may help prevent or reduce frailty, such as resistance exercises and multi-component interventions, but few interventions are based on behaviour change theory. There is little evidence of cost-effectiveness.

Previously, we co-designed a new behaviour change health promotion intervention (“HomeHealth”) to support people with mild frailty. HomeHealth is delivered by trained voluntary sector support workers over six months who support older people to work on self-identified goals to maintain their independence, such as strength and balance exercises, nutrition, mood and enhancing social engagement. The service was well received in our feasibility randomised controlled trial and showed promising effects upon outcomes.

Aim

To test the clinical and cost-effectiveness of the HomeHealth intervention on maintaining independence in older people with mild frailty in comparison to treatment as usual (TAU).

Methods

Single-blind individually randomised controlled trial comparing the HomeHealth intervention to TAU. We will recruit 386 participants from general practices and the community across three English regions. Participants are included if they are community-dwelling, aged 65 + , with mild frailty according to the Clinical Frailty Scale. Participants will be randomised 1:1 to receive HomeHealth or TAU for 6 months. The primary outcome is independence in activities of daily living (modified Barthel Index) at 12 months. Secondary outcomes include instrumental activities of daily living, quality of life, frailty, wellbeing, psychological distress, loneliness, cognition, capability, falls, carer burden, service use, costs and mortality. Outcomes will be analysed using linear mixed models, controlling for baseline Barthel score and site. A health economic analysis and embedded mixed-methods process evaluation will be conducted.

Discussion

This trial will provide definitive evidence on the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a home-based, individualised intervention to maintain independence in older people with mild frailty in comparison to TAU, that could be implemented at scale if effective.

Trial registration

ISRCTN, ISRCTN54268283. Registered 06/04/2020.

The prevalence of comorbidity in rheumatoid arthritis: a systematic review and meta-analysis

This systematic review and meta-analysis estimates the prevalence of common comorbid health disorders in adults with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). A multi-database search strategy was undertaken. Screening, data extraction and quality assessment were carried out by two independent reviewers. A meta-analysis and meta-regression were used to generate a pooled prevalence estimate and identify relevant moderators. After study selection, 33 studies (74633 participants) were included in the meta-analysis. Some 31 studies were judged to be of low risk of bias, and two studies were judged to be at moderate risk of bias. The three most common comorbidities in RA were anxiety disorders (62.1%, 95% Cl: 43.6%; 80.6%), hypertension (37.7%, 95% Cl: 29.2%; 46.2%) and depression (32.1%, 95% Cl: 21.6%; 42.7%). There was substantial statistically significant heterogeneity for all comorbidities (I2 ≥77%). Meta-regression identified that the covariate of mean age (unit increase) had a statistically significant effect on the prevalence of hypertension (+2.3%, 95% Cl: 0.4%; 4.2%), depression (-0.5%, 95% Cl: -0.6%; -0.4%) and cancer (0.5%, 95% Cl: 0.2%; 0.8%) in adults with RA. A country's income was identified to have a statistically significant effect on the prevalence of depression, with low-to moderate-income countries having 40% (95% Cl: 14.0%; 66.6%) higher prevalence than high-income countries. No studies consider health inequalities. It is concluded that comorbidities are prevalent among people with RA, particularly those associated with mental health and circulatory conditions. Provision of health services should reflect the importance of such multimorbidity and the consequences for quality and length of life.

Social care costs for community-dwelling older people living with frailty

International evidence indicates that older people with frailty are more likely to access social care services, compared to nonfrail older people. There is, however, no robust evidence on costs of social care provided for community-dwelling older people living with frailty in their own homes. The main objective of this study was to examine the relationship between community-dwelling older people living with frailty, defined using the cumulative deficit model, and annual formal social care costs for the 2012-2018 period. A secondary objective was to estimate formal social care spending for every 1% reduction in the number of older people who develop frailty over 1 year. Secondary analysis of prospective cohort data from two large nationally representative community-based cohort studies in England was performed. Respondents aged ≥75 were used in the main analysis and respondents aged 65-74 in sensitivity testing. We used regression tree modelling for formal social care cost analysis including frailty, age, gender, age at completing education and living with partner as key covariates. We employed a minimum node size stopping criteria to limit tree complexity and overfitting and applied 'bootstrap aggregating' to improve robustness. We assessed the impact of an intervention for every 1% decrease in the number of individuals who become frail over 1 year in England. Results show that frailty is the strongest predictor of formal social care costs. Mean social care costs for people who are not frail are £321, compared with £2,895 for individuals with frailty. For every 1% of nonfrail people not transitioning to frailty savings of £4.4 million in annual expenditures on formal social care in England are expected, not including expenditure on care homes. Given considerably higher costs for individuals classed as frail compared to nonfrail, a successful intervention avoiding or postponing the onset of frailty has the potential to considerably reduce social care costs.

New horizons in evidence-based care for older people: individual participant data meta-analysis

Evidence-based decisions on clinical and cost-effectiveness of interventions are ideally informed by meta-analyses of intervention trial data. However, when undertaken, such meta-analyses in ageing research have typically been conducted using standard methods whereby summary (aggregate) data are extracted from published trial reports. Although meta-analysis of aggregate data can provide useful insights into the average effect of interventions within a selected trial population, it has limitations regarding robust conclusions on which subgroups of people stand to gain the greatest benefit from an intervention or are at risk of experiencing harm. Future evidence synthesis using individual participant data from ageing research trials for meta-analysis could transform understanding of the effectiveness of interventions for older people, supporting evidence-based and sustainable commissioning. A major advantage of individual participant data meta-analysis (IPDMA) is that it enables examination of characteristics that predict treatment effects, such as frailty, disability, cognitive impairment, ethnicity, gender and other wider determinants of health. Key challenges of IPDMA relate to the complexity and resources needed for obtaining, managing and preparing datasets, requiring a meticulous approach involving experienced researchers, frequently with expertise in designing and analysing clinical trials. In anticipation of future IPDMA work in ageing research, we are establishing an international Ageing Research Trialists collective, to bring together trialists with a common focus on transforming care for older people as a shared ambition across nations.

Mortality of care home residents and community-dwelling controls during the covid-19 pandemic in 2020: matched cohort study

Objective

This study aimed to estimate and compare mortality of care home residents, and matched community-dwelling controls, during the COVID-19 pandemic from primary care electronic health records in England.

Design

Matched cohort study.

Setting and Participants

Family practices in England in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum database. There were 83,627 care home residents in 2020, with 26,923 deaths; 80,730 (97%) were matched on age, sex, and family practice with 300,445 community-dwelling adults.

Methods

All-cause mortality was evaluated and adjusted rate ratios by negative binomial regression were adjusted for age, sex, number of long-term conditions, frailty category, region, calendar month or week, and clustering by family practice.

Results

Underlying mortality of care home residents was higher than community controls (adjusted rate ratio 5.59, 95% confidence interval 5.23‒5.99, P < .001). During April 2020, there was a net increase in mortality of care home residents over that of controls. The mortality rate of care home residents was 27.2 deaths per 1000 patients per week, compared with 2.31 per 1000 for controls. Excess deaths for care home residents, above that predicted from pre-pandemic years, peaked between April 13 and 19 (men, 27.7, 95% confidence interval 25.1‒30.3; women, 17.4, 15.9‒18.8 per 1000 per week). Compared with care home residents, long-term conditions and frailty were differentially associated with greater mortality in community-dwelling controls.

Conclusions and Implications

Individual-patient data from primary care electronic health records may be used to estimate mortality in care home residents. Mortality is substantially higher than for community-dwelling comparators and showed a disproportionate increase in the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. Care home residents require particular protection during periods of high infectious disease transmission.

Behavioural Activation for Social IsoLation (BASIL+) trial (Behavioural activation to mitigate depression and loneliness among older people with long-term conditions): Protocol for a fully-powered pragmatic randomised controlled trial

Introduction

Depression is a leading mental health problem worldwide. People with long-term conditions are at increased risk of experiencing depression. The COVID-19 pandemic led to strict social restrictions being imposed across the UK population. Social isolation can have negative consequences on the physical and mental wellbeing of older adults. In the Behavioural Activation in Social IsoLation (BASIL⁺) trial we will test whether a brief psychological intervention (based on Behavioural Activation), delivered remotely, can mitigate depression and loneliness in older adults with long-term conditions during isolation.

Methods

We will conduct a two-arm, parallel-group, randomised controlled trial across several research sites, to evaluate the clinical and cost-effectiveness of the BASIL⁺ intervention. Participants will be recruited via participating general practices across England and Wales. Participants must be aged ≥65 with two or more long-term conditions, or a condition that may indicate they are within a ‘clinically extremely vulnerable’ group in relation to COVID-19, and have scored ≥5 on the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ9), to be eligible for inclusion. Randomisation will be 1:1, stratified by research site. Intervention participants will receive up to eight intervention sessions delivered remotely by trained BASIL⁺ Support Workers and supported by a self-help booklet. Control participants will receive usual care, with additional signposting to reputable sources of self-help and information, including advice on keeping mentally and physically well. A qualitative process evaluation will also be undertaken to explore the acceptability of the BASIL⁺ intervention, as well as barriers and enablers to integrating the intervention into participants’ existing health and care support, and the impact of the intervention on participants’ mood and general wellbeing in the context of the COVID-19 restrictions. Semi-structured interviews will be conducted with intervention participants, participant’s caregivers/supportive others and BASIL⁺ Support Workers. Outcome data will be collected at one, three, and 12 months post-randomisation. Clinical and cost-effectiveness will be evaluated. The primary outcome is depressive symptoms at the three-month follow up, measured by the PHQ9. Secondary outcomes include loneliness, social isolation, anxiety, quality of life, and a bespoke health services use questionnaire.

Discussion

This study is the first large-scale trial evaluating a brief Behavioural Activation intervention in this population, and builds upon the results of a successful external pilot trial.

Trial registration

ClinicalTrials.Gov identifier ISRCTN63034289, registered on 5th February 2021.

768 PREDICTORS OF INDEPENDENCE IN COMMUNITY-DWELLING OLDER PEOPLE

Introduction

Many people wish to retain their independence as they age. Therefore, identifying factors that can predict sustainability of independence for older people over time are essential for preventing functional decline and maintaining quality of life.

Method

Longitudinal, health, social and economic data, from community-dwelling older people aged ≥75 years (collected at baseline (BL), 6, 12, 24 and 48 months), were obtained from the ongoing Community Ageing Research (CARE 75+) cohort study. Linear regression models were used to identify predictors of independence. The Nottingham Extended Activities of Daily Living (NEADL) score (range 0–66) at 12 months from BL was the dependent variable (DV) to indicate independence. Independent variables (IV)s were selected based on interviews with CARE75+ participants and known predictors such as, ethnicity and frailty. Each IV was regressed against the DV in univariable analyses. All IVs with p value &lt;0.1 from univariable analyses, including baseline NEADL score, were included in the multivariable model.

Results

Data from 1,277 participants (mean (SD) age 84.61 (4.95); 49% male) were analysed. The multivariable model (adjusted R2: 0.71) showed that, in addition to higher BL NEADL (estimated effect 0.49, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.41 to 0.58), white ethnicity, good sight, lower level of frailty, ability to perform basic activities of daily living, lower depression score, lower cognitive impairment, younger age, living circumstances, fewer hours of informal support, greater physical functioning and lower pain scores were predictors of a higher NEADL at 12 months (p &lt; 0.05 for all).

Conclusion

As well as physical health, social and psychological variables are important in predicting independence, based on NEADL score, over time. Further research into the mechanisms behind these relationships will be conducted.

825 DEVELOPMENT OF THE ANTICHOLINERGIC MEDICATION INDEX (ACMI)

Introduction

Medications with Anticholinergic (AC) properties, are prescribed to treat a range of conditions. Older people are increasingly likely to be prescribed multiple AC medications, but are also more likely to experience unwanted adverse effects, such as falls and delirium. The risks of adverse outcomes increase with the number and potency of AC medications prescribed. The aim of this study was to use a prognostic modelling approach to develop an AC Medication Index (ACMI) that identifies patients at high risk of AC medication side effects.

Methods

The prognostic model was developed using data on patients aged 65–95 years, registered with a general practice contributing data to ‘Connected Bradford’ in 2019. A Time-dependent Cox model was fitted, with hospital admission for delirium or falls as the composite outcome and AC medications, age, sex and important clinical factors (e.g. dementia, arthritis, urinary incontinence) as predictors. Concordance and Negalkerke’s R2 derived from five-fold cross-validation were used to assess model performance.

Results

There were 151,604 patients included in the study, of whom 47,035 (31.0%) were prescribed ≥1 AC medication during 2019. Codeine, Prednisolone, Furosemide and Amitriptyline were most commonly prescribed with 7.4%, 4.0%, 3.8% and 3.1% of patients prescribed these medications at least once in 2019, respectively. During 2019, 6,078 (4.0%) patients experienced a hospital admission with delirium or a fall, with the rate being increased in those prescribed ≥1 AC medication during 2019 (4.8% vs 3.7%; p &lt; 0.001). The prognostic model yielded a discrimination statistic of 0.86 with an R2 of 0.1.

Conclusion

The model used to develop the ACMI shows good discrimination. External validation will soon be performed using data from the SAIL databank and the ACMI will be further developed as a tool for use in primary care.

696 UNDERSTANDING INDEPENDENCE—OLDER PEOPLE’S PERSPECTIVES

Introduction

Independence is an important personal goal for many older people. Achieving this goal in practice requires a shared-understanding of independence between older people and those supporting them, but a consensus of understanding remains elusive. This study aims to provide a basis for a person-centred understanding of independence by identifying which factors are important to the meaning, and experience, of independence for older people.

Method

In-depth interviews were conducted to explore the understandings of community-dwelling older people. Participants were purposively sampled from the Community Ageing Research 75+ cohort study. Analysis was guided by the Framework approach. Themes were identified through deductive and inductive exploration of the transcripts.

Results

Fourteen older people were interviewed ranging from 76–98 years old, six were male. Five themes were identified. The first three themes: participation, autonomy and control, underpinned participants’ understandings of independence. Engaging in meaningful activities, making decisions, and having control over help received were fundamental to participants’ understandings of independence. These three themes provided the common building blocks for unique configurations of independence. The importance of psychological qualities to the facilitation of independence, as they enabled participants to navigate environmental and social set-backs, presented a fourth theme, ‘Mind over Matter’. The final theme, ‘Participation reinforces psychological qualities’ represented the virtuous circle through which participation in meaningful activities reinforced the psychological attributes necessary to maintain independence.

Conclusion

Meanings of independence are as diverse as the people who develop them, whatever the age group. For the older participants of this study, despite differences, the meaning and facilitation of independence comprised several common themes. Achieving independence was a case of ‘Mind over Matter’ requiring personal effort, irrespective of environmental supports. Participation in meaningful activities was both a goal of independence and a means to reinforce the psychological qualities and energy needed to maintain it.

Routine vaginal examinations compared to other methods for assessing progress of labour to improve outcomes for women and babies at term

BACKGROUND

Routine vaginal examinations are undertaken at regular time intervals during labour to assess whether labour is progressing as expected. Unusually slow progress can be due to underlying problems, described as labour dystocia, or can be a normal variation of progress. Evidence suggests that if mother and baby are well, length of labour alone should not be used to decide whether labour is progressing normally. Other methods to assess labour progress include intrapartum ultrasound and monitoring external physical and behavioural cues. Vaginal examinations can be distressing for women, and overdiagnosis of dystocia can result in iatrogenic morbidity due to unnecessary intervention. It is important to establish whether routine vaginal examinations are effective, both as an accurate measure of physiological labour progress and to distinguish true labour dystocia, or whether other methods for assessing labour progress are more effective. This Cochrane Review is an update of a review first published in 2013.

OBJECTIVES

To compare the effectiveness, acceptability, and consequences of routine vaginal examinations compared with other methods, or different timings, to assess labour progress at term.

SEARCH METHODS

For this update, we searched Cochrane Pregnancy and Childbirth Trials Register (which includes trials from CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL, and conference proceedings) and ClinicalTrials.gov (28 February 2021). We also searched the reference lists of retrieved studies.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of vaginal examinations compared with other methods of assessing labour progress and studies assessing different timings of vaginal examinations. Quasi-RCTs and cluster-RCTs were eligible for inclusion. We excluded cross-over trials and conference abstracts.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors independently assessed all studies identified by the search for inclusion in the review. Four review authors independently extracted data. Two review authors assessed risk of bias and certainty of the evidence using GRADE.

MAIN RESULTS

We included four studies that randomised a total of 755 women, with data analysed for 744 women and their babies. Interventions used to assess labour progress were routine vaginal examinations, routine ultrasound assessments, routine rectal examinations, routine vaginal examinations at different frequencies, and vaginal examinations as indicated. We were unable to conduct meta-analysis as there was only one study for each comparison.  All studies were at high risk of performance bias due to difficulties with blinding. We assessed two studies as high risk of bias and two as low or unclear risk of bias for other domains. The overall certainty of the evidence assessed using GRADE was low or very low.  Routine vaginal examinations versus routine ultrasound to assess labour progress (one study, 83 women and babies) Study in Turkey involving multiparous women with spontaneous onset of labour. Routine vaginal examinations may result in a slight increase in pain compared to routine ultrasound (mean difference -1.29, 95% confidence interval (CI) -2.10 to -0.48; one study, 83 women, low certainty evidence) (pain measured using a visual analogue scale (VAS) in reverse: zero indicating 'worst pain', 10 indicating no pain). The study did not assess our other primary outcomes: positive birth experience; augmentation of labour; spontaneous vaginal birth; chorioamnionitis; neonatal infection; admission to neonatal intensive care unit (NICU). Routine vaginal examinations versus routine rectal examinations to assess labour progress (one study, 307 women and babies) Study in Ireland involving women in labour at term. We assessed the certainty of the evidence as very low. Compared with routine rectal examinations, routine vaginal examinations may have little or no effect on: augmentation of labour (risk ratio (RR) 1.03, 95% CI 0.63 to 1.68; one study, 307 women); and spontaneous vaginal birth (RR 0.98, 95% CI 0.90 to 1.06; one study, 307 women). We found insufficient data to fully assess: neonatal infections (RR 0.33, 95% CI 0.01 to 8.07; one study, 307 babies); and admission to NICU (RR 1.32, 95% CI 0.47 to 3.73; one study, 307 babies). The study did not assess our other primary outcomes: positive birth experience; chorioamnionitis; maternal pain. Routine four-hourly vaginal examinations versus routine two-hourly examinations (one study, 150 women and babies) UK study involving primiparous women in labour at term. We assessed the certainty of the evidence as very low. Compared with routine two-hourly vaginal examinations, routine four-hourly vaginal examinations may have little or no effect, with data compatible with both benefit and harm, on: augmentation of labour (RR 0.97, 95% CI 0.60 to 1.57; one study, 109 women); and spontaneous vaginal birth (RR 1.02, 95% CI 0.83 to 1.26; one study, 150 women). The study did not assess our other primary outcomes: positive birth experience; chorioamnionitis; neonatal infection; admission to NICU; maternal pain. Routine vaginal examinations versus vaginal examinations as indicated (one study, 204 women and babies)  Study in Malaysia involving primiparous women being induced at term. We assessed the certainty of the evidence as low. Compared with vaginal examinations as indicated, routine four-hourly vaginal examinations may result in more women having their labour augmented (RR 2.55, 95% CI 1.03 to 6.31; one study, 204 women). There may be little or no effect on: • spontaneous vaginal birth (RR 1.08, 95% CI 0.73 to 1.59; one study, 204 women); • chorioamnionitis (RR 3.06, 95% CI 0.13 to 74.21; one study, 204 women); • neonatal infection (RR 4.08, 95% CI 0.46 to 35.87; one study, 204 babies); • admission to NICU (RR 2.04, 95% CI 0.63 to 6.56; one study, 204 babies). The study did not assess our other primary outcomes of positive birth experience or maternal pain.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Based on these findings, we cannot be certain which method is most effective or acceptable for assessing labour progress. Further large-scale RCT trials are required. These should include essential clinical and experiential outcomes. This may be facilitated through the development of a tool to measure positive birth experiences. Data from qualitative studies are also needed to fully assess whether methods to evaluate labour progress meet women's needs for a safe and positive labour and birth, and if not, to develop an approach that does.

Dynamic contrast-enhanced CT compared with positron emission tomography CT to characterise solitary pulmonary nodules: the SPUtNIk diagnostic accuracy study and economic modelling

BACKGROUND

Current pathways recommend positron emission tomography-computerised tomography for the characterisation of solitary pulmonary nodules. Dynamic contrast-enhanced computerised tomography may be a more cost-effective approach.

OBJECTIVES

To determine the diagnostic performances of dynamic contrast-enhanced computerised tomography and positron emission tomography-computerised tomography in the NHS for solitary pulmonary nodules. Systematic reviews and a health economic evaluation contributed to the decision-analytic modelling to assess the likely costs and health outcomes resulting from incorporation of dynamic contrast-enhanced computerised tomography into management strategies.

DESIGN

Multicentre comparative accuracy trial.

SETTING

Secondary or tertiary outpatient settings at 16 hospitals in the UK.

PARTICIPANTS

Participants with solitary pulmonary nodules of ≥ 8 mm and of ≤ 30 mm in size with no malignancy in the previous 2 years were included.

INTERVENTIONS

Baseline positron emission tomography-computerised tomography and dynamic contrast-enhanced computer tomography with 2 years' follow-up.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Primary outcome measures were sensitivity, specificity and diagnostic accuracy for positron emission tomography-computerised tomography and dynamic contrast-enhanced computerised tomography. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios compared management strategies that used dynamic contrast-enhanced computerised tomography with management strategies that did not use dynamic contrast-enhanced computerised tomography.

RESULTS

A total of 380 patients were recruited (median age 69 years). Of 312 patients with matched dynamic contrast-enhanced computer tomography and positron emission tomography-computerised tomography examinations, 191 (61%) were cancer patients. The sensitivity, specificity and diagnostic accuracy for positron emission tomography-computerised tomography and dynamic contrast-enhanced computer tomography were 72.8% (95% confidence interval 66.1% to 78.6%), 81.8% (95% confidence interval 74.0% to 87.7%), 76.3% (95% confidence interval 71.3% to 80.7%) and 95.3% (95% confidence interval 91.3% to 97.5%), 29.8% (95% confidence interval 22.3% to 38.4%) and 69.9% (95% confidence interval 64.6% to 74.7%), respectively. Exploratory modelling showed that maximum standardised uptake values had the best diagnostic accuracy, with an area under the curve of 0.87, which increased to 0.90 if combined with dynamic contrast-enhanced computerised tomography peak enhancement. The economic analysis showed that, over 24 months, dynamic contrast-enhanced computerised tomography was less costly (£3305, 95% confidence interval £2952 to £3746) than positron emission tomography-computerised tomography (£4013, 95% confidence interval £3673 to £4498) or a strategy combining the two tests (£4058, 95% confidence interval £3702 to £4547). Positron emission tomography-computerised tomography led to more patients with malignant nodules being correctly managed, 0.44 on average (95% confidence interval 0.39 to 0.49), compared with 0.40 (95% confidence interval 0.35 to 0.45); using both tests further increased this (0.47, 95% confidence interval 0.42 to 0.51).

LIMITATIONS

The high prevalence of malignancy in nodules observed in this trial, compared with that observed in nodules identified within screening programmes, limits the generalisation of the current results to nodules identified by screening.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings from this research indicate that positron emission tomography-computerised tomography is more accurate than dynamic contrast-enhanced computerised tomography for the characterisation of solitary pulmonary nodules. A combination of maximum standardised uptake value and peak enhancement had the highest accuracy with a small increase in costs. Findings from this research also indicate that a combined positron emission tomography-dynamic contrast-enhanced computerised tomography approach with a slightly higher willingness to pay to avoid missing small cancers or to avoid a 'watch and wait' policy may be an approach to consider.

FUTURE WORK

Integration of the dynamic contrast-enhanced component into the positron emission tomography-computerised tomography examination and the feasibility of dynamic contrast-enhanced computerised tomography at lung screening for the characterisation of solitary pulmonary nodules should be explored, together with a lower radiation dose protocol.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42018112215 and CRD42019124299, and the trial is registered as ISRCTN30784948 and ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02013063.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 26, No. 17. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Stroke in India: A systematic review of the incidence, prevalence, and case fatality

BACKGROUND

The burden of stroke is increasing in India; stroke is now the fourth leading cause of death and the fifth leading cause of disability. Previous research suggests that the incidence of stroke in India ranges between 105 and 152/100,000 people per year. However, there is a paucity of available data and a lack of uniform methods across published studies.

AIM

To identify high-quality prospective studies reporting the epidemiology of stroke in India.

SUMMARY OF REVIEW

A search strategy was modified from the Cochrane Stroke Strategy and adapted for a range of bibliographic databases from January 1997 to August 2020. From 7717 identified records, nine studies were selected for inclusion; three population-based registries, a further three population-based registries also using community-based ascertainment and three community-based door-to-door surveys. Studies represented the four cities of Mumbai, Trivandrum, Ludhiana, Kolkata, the state of Punjab, and 12 villages of Baruipur in the state of West Bengal. The total population denominator was 22,479,509 and 11,654 (mean 1294 SD 1710) people were identified with incident stroke. Crude incidence of stroke ranged from 108 to 172/100,000 people per year, crude prevalence from 26 to 757/100,000 people per year, and one-month case fatality rates from 18% to 42%.

CONCLUSIONS

Further high-quality evidence is needed across India to guide stroke policy and inform the development and organization of stroke services. Future researchers should consider the World Health Organization STEPwise approach to Surveillance framework, including longitudinal data collection, the inclusion of census population data, and a combination of hospital-registry and comprehensive community ascertainment strategies to ensure complete stroke identification.

The dynamics of frailty development and progression in older adults in primary care in England (2006-2017): a retrospective cohort profile

BACKGROUND

Frailty is a common condition in older adults and has a major impact on patient outcomes and service use. Information on the prevalence in middle-aged adults and the patterns of progression of frailty at an individual and population level is scarce. To address this, a cohort was defined from a large primary care database in England to describe the epidemiology of frailty and understand the dynamics of frailty within individuals and across the population. This article describes the structure of the dataset, cohort characteristics and planned analyses.

METHODS

Retrospective cohort study using electronic health records. Participants were aged ≥50 years registered in practices contributing to the Oxford Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre between 2006 to 2017. Data include GP practice details, patient sociodemographic and clinical characteristics, twice-yearly electronic Frailty Index (eFI), deaths, medication use and primary and secondary care health service use. Participants in each cohort year by age group, GP and patient characteristics at cohort entry are described.

RESULTS

The cohort includes 2,177,656 patients, contributing 15,552,946 person-years, registered at 419 primary care practices in England. The mean age was 61 years, 52.1% of the cohort was female, and 77.6% lived in urban environments. Frailty increased with age, affecting 10% of adults aged 50-64 and 43.7% of adults aged ≥65. The prevalence of long-term conditions and specific frailty deficits increased with age, as did the eFI and the severity of frailty categories.

CONCLUSION

A comprehensive understanding of frailty dynamics will inform predictions of current and future care needs to facilitate timely planning of appropriate interventions, service configurations and workforce requirements. Analysis of this large, nationally representative cohort including participants aged ≥50 will capture earlier transitions to frailty and enable a detailed understanding of progression and impact. These results will inform novel simulation models which predict future health and service needs of older people living with frailty.

STUDY REGISTRATION

Registered on www.clinicaltrials.gov October 25th 2019, NCT04139278 .

The DynAIRx Project Protocol: Artificial Intelligence for dynamic prescribing optimisation and care integration in multimorbidity

BACKGROUND

Structured Medication Reviews (SMRs) are intended to help deliver the NHS Long Term Plan for medicines optimisation in people living with multiple long-term conditions and polypharmacy. It is challenging to gather the information needed for these reviews due to poor integration of health records across providers and there is little guidance on how to identify those patients most urgently requiring review.

OBJECTIVE

To extract information from scattered clinical records on how health and medications change over time, apply interpretable artificial intelligence (AI) approaches to predict risks of poor outcomes and overlay this information on care records to inform SMRs. We will pilot this approach in primary care prescribing audit and feedback systems, and co-design future medicines optimisation decision support systems.

DESIGN

DynAIRx will target potentially problematic polypharmacy in three key multimorbidity groups, namely, people with (a) mental and physical health problems, (b) four or more long-term conditions taking ten or more drugs and (c) older age and frailty. Structured clinical data will be drawn from integrated care records (general practice, hospital, and social care) covering an ∼11m population supplemented with Natural Language Processing (NLP) of unstructured clinical text. AI systems will be trained to identify patterns of conditions, medications, tests, and clinical contacts preceding adverse events in order to identify individuals who might benefit most from an SMR.

DISCUSSION

By implementing and evaluating an AI-augmented visualisation of care records in an existing prescribing audit and feedback system we will create a learning system for medicines optimisation, co-designed throughout with end-users and patients.

Comparative accuracy and cost-effectiveness of dynamic contrast-enhanced CT and positron emission tomography in the characterisation of solitary pulmonary nodules

INTRODUCTION

Dynamic contrast-enhanced CT (DCE-CT) and positron emission tomography/CT (PET/CT) have a high reported accuracy for the diagnosis of malignancy in solitary pulmonary nodules (SPNs). The aim of this study was to compare the accuracy and cost-effectiveness of these.

METHODS

In this prospective multicentre trial, 380 participants with an SPN (8-30 mm) and no recent history of malignancy underwent DCE-CT and PET/CT. All patients underwent either biopsy with histological diagnosis or completed CT follow-up. Primary outcome measures were sensitivity, specificity and overall diagnostic accuracy for PET/CT and DCE-CT. Costs and cost-effectiveness were estimated from a healthcare provider perspective using a decision-model.

RESULTS

312 participants (47% female, 68.1±9.0 years) completed the study, with 61% rate of malignancy at 2 years. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive values for DCE-CT were 95.3% (95% CI 91.3 to 97.5), 29.8% (95% CI 22.3 to 38.4), 68.2% (95% CI 62.4% to 73.5%) and 80.0% (95% CI 66.2 to 89.1), respectively, and for PET/CT were 79.1% (95% CI 72.7 to 84.2), 81.8% (95% CI 74.0 to 87.7), 87.3% (95% CI 81.5 to 91.5) and 71.2% (95% CI 63.2 to 78.1). The area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUROC) for DCE-CT and PET/CT was 0.62 (95% CI 0.58 to 0.67) and 0.80 (95% CI 0.76 to 0.85), respectively (p<0.001). Combined results significantly increased diagnostic accuracy over PET/CT alone (AUROC=0.90 (95% CI 0.86 to 0.93), p<0.001). DCE-CT was preferred when the willingness to pay per incremental cost per correctly treated malignancy was below £9000. Above £15 500 a combined approach was preferred.

CONCLUSIONS

PET/CT has a superior diagnostic accuracy to DCE-CT for the diagnosis of SPNs. Combining both techniques improves the diagnostic accuracy over either test alone and could be cost-effective.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT02013063.

Community Ageing Research 75+ (CARE75+) REMOTE study: a remote model of recruitment and assessment of the health, well-being and social circumstances of older people

INTRODUCTION

The Community Ageing Research 75+ (CARE75+) study is a longitudinal cohort study collecting extensive health and social data, with a focus on frailty, independence and quality of life in older age. CARE75+ was the first international experimental frailty research cohort designed using trial within cohorts (TwiCs) methodology, aligning epidemiological research with clinical trial evaluation of interventions to improve the health and well-being of older people. CARE75+ REMOTE is an extension of CARE75+ using a remote model that does not require face-to-face interactions for data collection in the current circumstances of a global pandemic and will provide an efficient, sustainable data collection model.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

Prospective cohort study using TwiCs. One thousand community-dwelling older people (≥75 years) will be recruited from UK general practices by telephone. Exclusions include: nursing home/care home residents; those with an estimated life expectancy of 3 months or less; and people receiving palliative care.

DATA COLLECTION

Assessments will be conducted by telephone, web-submission or postal questionnaire: baseline, 6 months, 12 months, 18 months, 24 months, 30 months and 36 months. Measures include activities of daily living, mood, health-related quality of life, comorbidities, medications, frailty, informal care, healthcare and social care service use. Consent will be sought for data linkage and invitations to additional studies (sub-studies).

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

CARE75+ was approved by the National Research Ethics Service (NRES) Committee Yorkshire and the Humber-Bradford Leeds 10 October 2014 (14/YH/1120). CARE75+ REMOTE (amendment 13) was approved on the 18th November 2020. Consent is sought if an individual is willing to participate and has capacity to provide informed consent. Consultee assent is sought if an individual lacks capacity. Results will be disseminated in peer-reviewed scientific journals and conferences. Results will be summarised and disseminated to study participants via newsletters, local engagement events and on a bespoke website.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN16588124.

Scoping review of the use of virtual reality in intensive care units

BACKGROUND

A wide range of reviews have demonstrated the effectiveness and tolerability of Virtual Reality (VR) in a range of clinical areas and subpopulations. However, no previous review has explored the current maturity, acceptability, tolerability, and effectiveness of VR with intensive care patients.

AIMS

To identify the range of uses of VR for intensive care patients, classify their current phase of development, effectiveness, acceptability, and tolerability.

METHODS

A scoping review was conducted. A multi-database search was undertaken (inception to January 2021). Any type of study which examined the use of VR with the target application population of intensive care patients were included. Screening, data extraction, and assessment of quality were undertaken by a single reviewer. A meta-analysis and a descriptive synthesis were undertaken.

RESULTS

Six hundred and forty-seven records were identified, after duplicate removal and screening 21 studies were included (weak quality). The majority of studies for relaxation, delirium, and Post Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) were at the early stages of assessing acceptability, tolerability, and initial clinical efficacy. Virtual Reality for relaxation and delirium were well-tolerated with completion rates of target treatment of 73.6%, (95% CI:51.1%-96%, I²  = 98.52%) 52.7% (95% CI:52.7%-100%, I²  = 96.8%). The majority of reasons for non-completion were due to external clinical factors. There were some potential benefits demonstrated for the use of VR for relaxation, delirium, and sleep.

CONCLUSION

Virtual Reality for intensive care is a new domain of research with the majority of areas of application being in the early stages of development. There is great potential for the use of VR in this clinical environment. Further robust assessment of effectiveness is required before any clinical recommendations can be made.

Home-based Extended Rehabilitation for Older people (HERO): study protocol for an individually randomised controlled multi-centre trial to determine the clinical and cost-effectiveness of a home-based exercise intervention for older people with frailty as extended rehabilitation following acute illness or injury, including embedded process evaluation

Background

The majority of older people (> 65 years) in hospital have frailty and are at increased risk of readmission or death following discharge home. In the UK, following acute hospitalisation, around one third of older people with frailty are referred on for rehabilitation, termed ‘intermediate care’ services. Although this rehabilitation can reduce early readmission to hospital (< 30 days), recipients often do not feel ready to leave the service on discharge, suggesting possible incomplete recovery. Limited evidence suggests extended rehabilitation is of benefit in several conditions and there is preliminary evidence that progressive physical exercise can improve mobility and function for older people with frailty, and slow progression to disability. Our aim is to evaluate the effectiveness of the Home-based Older People’s Exercise (HOPE) programme as extended rehabilitation for older people with frailty discharged home from hospital or intermediate care services after acute illness or injury.

Methods

A multi-centre individually randomised controlled trial, to evaluate the clinical and cost-effectiveness of the HOPE programme. This individualised, graded and progressive 24-week exercise programme is delivered by NHS physiotherapy teams to people aged 65 and older with frailty, identified using the Clinical Frailty Scale, following discharge from acute hospitalisation and linked intermediate care rehabilitation pathways. The primary outcome is physical health-related quality of life, measured using the physical component summary score of the modified Short Form 36- item health questionnaire (SF36) at 12 months. Secondary outcomes include self-reported physical and mental health, functional independence, death, hospitalisations, care home admissions. Plans include health economic analyses and an embedded process evaluation.

Discussion

This trial seeks to determine if extended rehabilitation, via the HOPE programme, can improve physical health-related quality of life for older people with frailty following acute hospitalisation. Results will improve awareness of the rehabilitation needs of older people with frailty, and provide evidence on the clinical and cost-effectiveness of the targeted exercise intervention. There is potential for considerable benefit for health and social care services through widespread implementation of trial findings if clinical and cost-effectiveness is demonstrated.

Trial registration

ISRCTN 13927531. Registered on April 19, 2017.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13063-021-05778-5.

Screening for aspiration risk associated with dysphagia in acute stroke

BACKGROUND

Stroke can affect people's ability to swallow, resulting in passage of some food and drink into the airway. This can cause choking, chest infection, malnutrition and dehydration, reduced rehabilitation, increased risk of anxiety and depression, longer hospital stay, increased likelihood of discharge to a care home, and increased risk of death. Early identification and management of disordered swallowing reduces risk of these difficulties.

OBJECTIVES

Primary objective • To determine the diagnostic accuracy and the sensitivity and specificity of bedside screening tests for detecting risk of aspiration associated with dysphagia in people with acute stroke Secondary objectives • To assess the influence of the following sources of heterogeneity on the diagnostic accuracy of bedside screening tools for dysphagia - Patient demographics (e.g. age, gender) - Time post stroke that the study was conducted (from admission to 48 hours) to ensure only hyperacute and acute stroke swallow screening tools are identified - Definition of dysphagia used by the study - Level of training of nursing staff (both grade and training in the screening tool) - Low-quality studies identified from the methodological quality checklist - Type and threshold of index test - Type of reference test SEARCH METHODS: In June 2017 and December 2019, we searched CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL, and the Health Technology Assessment (HTA) database via the Centre for Reviews and Dissemination; the reference lists of included studies; and grey literature sources. We contacted experts in the field to identify any ongoing studies and those potentially missed by the search strategy.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included studies that were single-gate or two-gate studies comparing a bedside screening tool administered by nurses or other healthcare professionals (HCPs) with expert or instrumental assessment for detection of aspiration associated with dysphagia in adults with acute stroke admitted to hospital.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors independently screened each study using the eligibility criteria and then extracted data, including the sensitivity and specificity of each index test against the reference test. A third review author was available at each stage to settle disagreements. The methodological quality of each study was assessed using the Quality Assessment of Studies of Diagnostic Accuracy (QUADAS-2) tool. We identified insufficient studies for each index test, so we performed no meta-analysis. Diagnostic accuracy data were presented as sensitivities and specificities for the index tests.

MAIN RESULTS

Overall, we included 25 studies in the review, four of which we included as narratives (with no accuracy statistics reported). The included studies involved 3953 participants and 37 screening tests. Of these, 24 screening tests used water only, six used water and other consistencies, and seven used other methods. For index tests using water only, sensitivity and specificity ranged from 46% to 100% and from 43% to 100%, respectively; for those using water and other consistencies, sensitivity and specificity ranged from 75% to 100% and from 69% to 90%, respectively; and for those using other methods, sensitivity and specificity ranged from 29% to 100% and from 39% to 86%, respectively. Twenty screening tests used expert assessment or the Mann Assessment of Swallowing Ability (MASA) as the reference, six used fibreoptic endoscopic evaluation of swallowing (FEES), and 11 used videofluoroscopy (VF). Fifteen screening tools had an outcome of aspiration risk, 20 screening tools had an outcome of dysphagia, and two narrative papers did not report the outcome. Twenty-one screening tests were carried out by nurses, and 16 were carried out by other HCPs (not including speech and language therapists (SLTs)). We assessed a total of six studies as low risk across all four QUADAS-2 risk of bias domains, and we rated 15 studies as low concern across all three applicability domains. No single study demonstrated 100% sensitivity and specificity with low risk of bias for all domains. The best performing combined water swallow and instrumental tool was the Bedside Aspiration test (n = 50), the best performing water plus other consistencies tool was the Gugging Swallowing Screen (GUSS; n = 30), and the best water only swallow screening tool was the Toronto Bedside Swallowing Screening Test (TOR-BSST; n = 24). All tools demonstrated combined highest sensitivity and specificity and low risk of bias for all domains. However, clinicians should be cautious in their interpretation of these findings, as these tests are based on single studies with small sample sizes, which limits the estimates of reliability of screening tests.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

We were unable to identify a single swallow screening tool with high and precisely estimated sensitivity and specificity based on at least one trial with low risk of bias. However, we were able to offer recommendations for further high-quality studies that are needed to improve the accuracy and clinical utility of bedside screening tools.