Application of a Latent Transition Model to Estimate the Usual Prevalence of Dietary Patterns

Background: This study aims to derive habitual dietary patterns of the Portuguese adult population by applying two methodological approaches: a latent class model and a latent transition model. The novel application of the latent transition model allows us to determine the day-to-day variability of diet and to calculate the usual prevalence of dietary patterns. Methods: Participants are from the National Food, Nutrition and Physical Activity Survey of the Portuguese population, 2015–2016 (2029 women; 1820 men, aged ≥18 years). Diet was collected by two 24 h dietary recalls (8–15 days apart). Dietary patterns were derived by: (1) a latent class model using the arithmetic mean of food weigh intake, with concomitant variables (age and sex); (2) a latent transition model allowing the transition from one pattern to another, with the same concomitant variables. Results: Six dietary patterns were identified by a latent class model. By using a latent transition model, three dietary patterns were identified: “In-transition to Western” (higher red meat and alcohol intake; followed by middle-aged men), “Western” (higher meats/eggs and energy-dense foods intake; followed by younger men), and “Traditional-Healthier” (higher intake of fruit, vegetables and fish, characteristic of older women). Most individuals followed the same pattern on both days, but around 26% transited between “In-transition to Western” and “Western”. The prevalence of the dietary patterns using a single recall day (40%, 27%, 33%, respectively) is different from the usual prevalence obtained by the latent transition probabilities (48%, 36%, 16%). Conclusion: Three dietary patterns, largely dependent on age and sex, were identified for the Portuguese adult population: “In-transition to Western” (48%), “Western” (36%), and “Traditional-Healthier” (16%), but 26% were transient between patterns. Dietary patterns are, in general, deviating from traditional habits.

Deoxynivalenol exposure assessment through a modelling approach of food intake and biomonitoring data - A contribution to the risk assessment of an enteropathogenic mycotoxin

Deoxynivalenol (DON), an enteropathogenic mycotoxin produced by Fusarium species, is usually associated with adverse health outcomes such as gastrointestinal diseases and immunotoxicity. To estimate DON exposure of the Portuguese population at national level, a modelling approach, based on data from 94 Portuguese volunteers, was developed considering the inputs of the food consumption data generated within the National Food and Physical Activity Survey and the human biomonitoring data used to assess the exposure to DON. Ten models of association between DON urinary biomarkers and food items (pasta, cookies, biscuits, sweets, bread, rusks, nuts, oilseeds, beer, meat, milk) were established. Applying the most adequate model to the consumption data (n = 5811) of the general population, the exposure estimates of the Probable Daily Intake revealed that a fraction (0.1%) of the Portuguese population might exceed the Tolerable Daily Intake defined for DON. The analysis stratified by age revealed children (3.2%) and adolescents (6.0%) are more likely to exceed the Tolerable Daily Intake for DON. Although the unavoidable uncertainties, these results are important contributions to understand the exposure to this mycotoxin in Portugal, to assess the associated risk and the potential public health consequences.

The role of socio-economic factors in food consumption of Portuguese children and adolescents: results from the National Food, Nutrition and Physical Activity Survey 2015-2016

This study aimed to evaluate the association between socio-economic factors and the food consumption of a young population. Participants were from the Portuguese National Food, Nutrition and Physical Activity Survey (IAN-AF 2015-2016) aged from 3 to 17 years (n 1153). Food consumption was assessed using two non-consecutive days of food diaries in children and two 24-h recalls for adolescents. A latent class analysis (LCA) was used to classify children's socio-economic status (socio-economic composite classification (SCC)), categorised in low, middle or high. The associations between socio-economic variables and food consumption were evaluated through linear or logistic regression models, weighted for the Portuguese population distribution. A positive association was found between belonging to a higher level of SCC and consumption of fruits and vegetables (FV), by children (β = 2·4, 95 % CI 1·1, 3·8) and by adolescents (β = 52·4, 95 % CI 9·6, 95·3). A higher SCC, but particularly higher maternal education, was positively associated with consumption of 'white meat, fish and eggs'. Both higher SCC and parental education were positively associated with salty snack consumption in the adolescents' group. In conclusion, children and adolescents with higher educated parents and belonging to a high socio-economic level have a higher daily intake of FV and white meat, fish and eggs. Socio-economic factors play an important role in justifying differences in the food consumption of children and adolescents and must be considered in future interventions. The relationship between higher socio-economic position and salty snack consumption in adolescents needs to be further explored in other populations.

Mitochondrial and Redox Modifications in Huntington Disease Induced Pluripotent Stem Cells Rescued by CRISPR/Cas9 CAGs Targeting

Mitochondrial deregulation has gained increasing support as a pathological mechanism in Huntington’s disease (HD), a genetic-based neurodegenerative disorder caused by CAG expansion in the HTT gene. In this study, we thoroughly investigated mitochondrial-based mechanisms in HD patient-derived iPSC (HD-iPSC) and differentiated neural stem cells (NSC) versus control cells, as well as in cells subjected to CRISPR/Cas9-CAG repeat deletion. We analyzed mitochondrial morphology, function and biogenesis, linked to exosomal release of mitochondrial components, glycolytic flux, ATP generation and cellular redox status. Mitochondria in HD cells exhibited round shape and fragmented morphology. Functionally, HD-iPSC and HD-NSC displayed lower mitochondrial respiration, exosomal release of cytochrome c, decreased ATP/ADP, reduced PGC-1α and complex III subunit expression and activity, and were highly dependent on glycolysis, supported by pyruvate dehydrogenase (PDH) inactivation. HD-iPSC and HD-NSC mitochondria showed ATP synthase reversal and increased calcium retention. Enhanced mitochondrial reactive oxygen species (ROS) were also observed in HD-iPSC and HD-NSC, along with decreased UCP2 mRNA levels. CRISPR/Cas9-CAG repeat deletion in HD-iPSC and derived HD-NSC ameliorated mitochondrial phenotypes. Data attests for intricate metabolic and mitochondrial dysfunction linked to transcriptional deregulation as early events in HD pathogenesis, which are alleviated following CAG deletion.

Cadmium exposure and risk of breast cancer: A dose-response meta-analysis of cohort studies

BACKGROUND

Cadmium is a toxic heavy metal that has been implicated in breast cancer etiology, albeit with inconsistent results.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the shape of the relation between cadmium exposure and breast cancer incidence and mortality in cohort studies.

DATA SOURCES

Following a literature search through April 14, 2020, we carried out a systematic review and dose-response meta-analysis to investigate the shape of the relation between cadmium exposure (assessed either through diet or urine excretion) and disease incidence and mortality.

STUDY ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA

For inclusion, a study had to report incidence or mortality for breast cancer according to baseline cadmium exposure category; be a prospective cohort, case-cohort or nested case-control study with a minimum one-year follow-up, and reporting effect estimates for all exposure categories.

STUDY APPRAISAL AND SYNTHESIS METHODS

Studies were evaluated using the ROBINS-E risk of bias tool. The effects in humans were assessed quantitatively using one-stage dose-response meta-analysis in a random effects meta-analytical model.

RESULTS

We identified 10 studies eligible for inclusion in the dose-response meta-analysis, six based on cadmium dietary intake, and four on urinary excretion levels. We found a marginal and imprecise positive relation between dietary cadmium intake and breast cancer, and no association when urinary cadmium excretion was used for exposure assessment. Compared to no exposure, at 20 µg/day of cadmium intake the summary risk ratio was 1.12 (95% confidence interval 0.80-1.56), while at 2 µg/g creatinine of cadmium excretion the summary risk ratio was 0.89 (95% confidence interval 0.38-2.14). Analysis restricted to post-menopausal women showed no association between either dietary or urinary cadmium and subsequent breast cancer incidence and mortality.

LIMITATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS

Overall, we found scant evidence of a positive association between cadmium and breast cancer. Available data were too limited to carry out stratified analyses according to age, smoking and hormone receptor status. Therefore, possible associations between cadmium exposure and breast cancer in selected subgroups cannot be entirely ruled out.

Consumption of ultra-processed foods on free sugar intake of Portuguese infants: The Upper Project

Background

The dietary share of ultra-processed foods (UPF) has been associated with low diet quality, including high content of free sugar, mainly in adults' populations. We aim to assess the influence of UPF consumption on free sugar intake of Portuguese infants.

Methods

Cross-sectional representative study including 573 infants (6-23 months old) who participated in the 2015-2016 National Food, Nutrition and Physical Activity Survey. Dietary intake was collected by two non-consecutive food diaries (time interval 8-15 days). Food items were classified according food processing degree by the NOVA system. Total energy intake and percentage provided by each NOVA food groups as well as the free sugar content of the overall diet were assessed. Mean free sugar intake was evaluated across quintiles (Q) of UPF consumption by linear regression adjusted for socioeconomic covariates.

Results

Mean energy intake was 935 kcal/day, in which 49.1% was derived from unprocessed/minimally processed foods, 7.2% from processed culinary ingredients, 7.0% from processed foods and 36.6% from UPF. The mean dietary share of UPF ranged from 12.5% (Q1) to 65.5% (Q5) of total energy. Within UPF, infant formulas (19.3%), milk-based drinks (6.7%) and sweet snacks (4.8%) contributed the most to energy intake. Mean free sugar intake in the overall diet accounted for 8.1% of total energy intake, in which 92.5% came from UPF. As the UPF consumption increased, the dietary content of free sugar increased significantly (β = 0.77; p < 0.001). Contribution of free sugar in total energy intake raised from 2.9% to 12.7%, representing an increment of 338% from the lower to the upper quintile of the dietary share of UPF.

Conclusions

Portuguese infants had an important intake of free sugar. Nearly all of this intake came from UPF, which calls for public health efforts to avoid UPF consumption by this population group.

Funding

FAPESP 2018/07391-9, 2019/05972-7 (MCR), 2016/14302-7 (FR); POCI-01-0145-FEDER-032090.

Key messages

Ultra-processed foods contributed with 36.6% of total energy intake and 92.5% of free sugar in the diets of Portuguese infants. As the ultra-processed foods consumption increased, the dietary content of free sugar increased significantly from 2.9% (Q1) to 12.7% (Q5), representing an increment of 338%.

Geriatric Assessment of the Portuguese Population Aged 65 and Over Living in the Community: The PEN-3S Study

INTRODUCTION

As populations live longer, they also aim to live better. A crucial step for this is to improve the understanding about older adults' physical and psychological health. Therefore, the aim of the present study was to characterise the Portuguese population over-65 regarding nutritional status, cognitive function, functional status, symptoms of depression, and loneliness, by sex and age groups.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Cross-sectional study including a nationally representative sample of community-dwelling adults aged 65 and over. Trained interviewers collected data face-to-face on demographic and socioeconomic characteristics, health status, nutritional status, cognitive function, functional status for activities of daily living, symptoms of depression, and loneliness feelings. Complex sample procedures were used in the statistical analysis.

RESULTS

Overall, 1120 community-dwellers (49.0% women, 21.3% aged ≥ 85) participated in the study. The estimated prevalence of risk of malnutrition was 16.4% (95% confidence interval: 13.3 - 19.9), while 17.7% (95% confidence interval: 12.8 - 23.9) were cognitively impaired, and 28.5% (95% confidence interval: 23.7 - 33.8) presented limitations to perform daily living activities. Moreover, 23.5% (95% confidence interval: 19.7 - 27.7) presented symptoms of depression and 13.6% (95% confidence interval: 10.6 - 17.1) reported loneliness feelings. These conditions were more prevalent among women, and generally more frequent in the oldest individuals (≥ 85).

DISCUSSION

Risk of malnutrition, cognitive impairment, functional limitations, depression and loneliness were moderately frequent, which may justify screening and preventive actions at a community level.

CONCLUSION

This study contributed to a national characterisation of the health of older adults, that may inform policies and interventions targeted at the needs of the Portuguese aging population.

Four of five tuberculosis patients experience catastrophic costs related to TB diagnosis and care in Timor-Leste

SETTING: Seventeen health care facilities that report to the national tuberculosis (TB) programme in Timor-Leste. Participants were TB patients.OBJECTIVE: To determine the proportion of TB patients who experienced catastrophic costs due to their TB diagnosis and care, and the magnitude and composition of these costs.DESIGN: This was a cross-sectional health facility-based survey, conducted in 17 DOTS centres between October 2016 and March 2017. TB patients were interviewed by trained nurses using a standardised questionnaire.RESULTS: Among the 457 TB patients who participated (response rate 96.6%), the median age was 32 years; 39.2% were from the capital, Dili. The patient was the main income earner in 26.3% of households. Annual individual and household incomes before and after TB diagnosis decreased by respectively 30.4% and 31.1%. Using a cut-off of 20% of annual household income, 83.0% of patients experienced catastrophic costs related to their TB diagnosis and care. Income loss and nutritional supplementation accounted for respectively 40.7% and 37.9% of these costs.CONCLUSION: Four of five TB patients in Timor-Leste experienced catastrophic costs related to TB diagnosis and care. Financial and social protection to mitigate against these costs are urgently needed, in addition to universal health coverage.

Potassium Intake and Blood Pressure: A Dose-Response Meta-Analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials

Background

Epidemiologic studies, including trials, suggest an association between potassium intake and blood pressure (BP). However, the strength and shape of this relationship is uncertain.

Methods and Results

We performed a meta‐analysis to explore the dose‐response relationship between potassium supplementation and BP in randomized‐controlled trials with a duration ≥4 weeks using the recently developed 1‐stage cubic spline regression model. This model allows use of trials with at least 2 exposure categories. We identified 32 eligible trials. Most were conducted in adults with hypertension using a crossover design and potassium supplementation doses that ranged from 30 to 140 mmol/d. We observed a U‐shaped relationship between 24‐hour active and control arm differences in potassium excretion and BP levels, with weakening of the BP reduction effect above differences of 30 mmol/d and a BP increase above differences ≈80 mmol/d. Achieved potassium excretion analysis also identified a U‐shaped relationship. The BP‐lowering effects of potassium supplementation were stronger in participants with hypertension and at higher levels of sodium intake. The BP increase with high potassium excretion was noted in participants with antihypertensive drug‐treated hypertension but not in their untreated counterparts.

Conclusions

We identified a nonlinear relationship between potassium intake and both systolic and diastolic BP, although estimates for BP effects of high potassium intakes should be interpreted with caution because of limited availability of trials. Our findings indicate an adequate intake of potassium is desirable to achieve a lower BP level but suggest excessive potassium supplementation should be avoided, particularly in specific subgroups.

P1393Prolonged atrial electrical conduction as a predictor of atrial fibrillation after atrioventricular nodal reentrant tachycardia ablation

BACKGROUND

Patients (pts) with atrioventricular nodal reentrant tachycardia (AVNRT) have a higher incidence of atrial fibrillation (AF) during follow-up. Conventional risk factors can play a role in AF development, however atrial electrical conduction properties may be implicated in AF pathogenesis.

AIMS

to evaluate atrial conduction times and assess its effect on AF development during follow-up.

METHODS

We studied AVNRT pts who performed EPS and catheter ablation of the slow pathway between 2013 and 2016 in a single center. Pts with AF or valvular disease were excluded. We evaluated duration of symptoms due to AVNRT, conventional risk factors for AF (age, gender, obesity, hypertension, diabetes and structural heart disease (SHD)), left atrium (LA) enlargement and electrophysiologic study (EPS) time intervals related with atrial electrical conduction properties. We measured the time interval between: (1) the beginning of the P wave on the ECG to the A deflection in His-bundle electrogram (P-AHis); (2) the beginning of the P wave to the mid-distal coronary sinus (CS) atrial electrogram (P-CS) and (3) the beginning of the P wave to the H deflection in His-bundle electrogram (P-HHis).

RESULTS

Fifty-two pts were evaluated during a median follow-up of 63 months (IQR 51-69): 22% male, median age 55 years (IQR 42-67). AF occurred in 9 patients (17%) (39 cases per 1000 person-years). Patients with AF were older (67 vs 53 years, p= 0.005) and had more frequently LA enlargement (33% vs 7%, p= 0.024) but they did not differ in hypertension, obesity, diabetes, SHD and duration of symptoms. EPS measured intervals P-AHis and P-HHis interval were not different between the groups (26.0 vs 22.8 ms, p = 0.89 and 151 vs 106 ms, p= 0.56, respectively) but P-CS were prolonged in patients with AF (70 vs 55 ms, p = 0.02) (figure 1). Univariate logistic analysis for AF is presented in table 1. There was no interaction between P-CS and LA enlargement (p = 0.87). In multiavariate analysis, only P-CS was independently associated with AF (table).

CONCLUSIONS

In this group of patients with AVNRT, P-CS, but not other atrial conduction intervals, was independently associated with AF development. The possible role of LA electrical conduction impairment in AVNRT pts for AF development needs further studies.

Univariate and multivariate analysis Univariate analysis Multivariate analysis OR 95% CI p-value OR 95% CI p-value Age (years) 1.10 1.02-1.19 0.016 1.10 1.00-1.21 0.051 LA enlargement 7.00 1.10-44.71 0.040 3.42 0.41-28.03 0.255 P-CS 1.07 1.021.14 0.013 1.06 1.01-1.12 0.044 OR Odds ratio. CI: confidence interval

Abstract Figure. Box-plot for the studied intervals

P518Inappropriate shocks in atrial fibrillation patients: are they really deleterious?

Introduction

Data suggest inappropriate defibrillator shocks are associated with a higher risk of all-cause mortality, particularly those delivered for atrial fibrillation (AF). However, the impact of inappropriate shocks has not been studied specifically in a population with AF.

Aims

to determine if AF-triggered inappropriate shocks are associated with long- term mortality in patients with AF and defibrillators implanted for primary prevention.

Methods

Retrospective single-center study. We analyzed all patients with defibrillators implanted for primary prevention in whom AF was diagnosed until the end of 2017. The cause of inappropriate shocks was evaluated by analysis of the stored intracardiac electrogram. Basal characteristics, cardiovascular risk factors, left ventricle ejection fraction, heart failure etiology (ischemic and non-ischemic), kidney function (creatinine) and medication were evaluated. Death was assessed during the follow-up.

Results

We studied 177 patients [median age 66 years (IQR 59-71); 82% male], with defibrillators and AF. AF was diagnosed before defibrillator implantation in 131 patients (74%) and after the implantation in the remaining 46 (26%). Inappropriate shocks occurred in 31 patients and 24 (14%) were caused by AF with rapid ventricular response: 13 patients with previously diagnosed AF and 11 with new-onset AF. During a median follow-up of 65 (IQR: 36-104) months, 74 patients died. Multivariate Cox-regression analysis demonstrated inappropriate shocks caused by AF were not independently related with death (adjusted HR 0.53; CI 0.23-1.23, p = 0.14). Kaplan-Meier survival curve demonstrated patients with AF-triggered inappropriate shocks had a better survival comparing to those with AF but without inappropriate shocks (logrank, p = 0.03) (figure).

Conclusions

In this group of AF patients, inappropriate shocks caused by AF did not increase the risk of death. Instead, these patients had a better survival comparing to those with AF but no shocks, probably due to a re-evaluation of the patient´s status and subsequent closer medical monitoring, strictly control of symptoms and optimization of drug treatment. These results demonstrate that inappropriate shocks are probably not deleterious per si through a direct mechanism.

Abstract Figure. Kaplan-Meier survival curve

Evaluating the association of free sugars intake and glycemic load on cardiometabolic outcomes: A prospective analysis throughout adolescence into early adulthood

PURPOSE

To prospectively evaluate the relation of free sugars intake and glycemic load with adiposity and insulin resistance, from adolescence into early adulthood.

METHODS

Data from the population-based cohort EPITeen (Porto, Portugal) at 13 and 21 years old was used (n = 1034). At both ages, dietary assessment was obtained by food frequency questionnaires (FFQ). Added sugar of each food item was estimated based on a systematic methodology described by Louie et al. Free sugars (FS) were defined according to World Health Organization. To each food item of the FFQ, a calculated mean value of FS and glycemic index was assigned. Dietary glycemic load (GL) was determined for each participant. Sex- and age-specific body mass index z-score (BMIz) and waist-to-weight ratio (WWr) were used as measures of adiposity, and the homeostasis model assessment (HOMA-IR) as a measure of insulin resistance. A cross-lagged path analysis was performed to examine causal relationships between FS intake or dietary GL with BMIz, WWr or HOMA-IR.

RESULTS

No significant association was found between intake of FS and dietary GL at 13 years with BMIz, WWr or HOMA-IR at 21. A significant inverse association was found between BMIz at 13 and FS (β = -0.595,95%CI -0.830, -0.359) and dietary GL (β = -0.687,95%CI -0.937,-0.437) at 21 years. Intake of FS, dietary GL, as well as BMIz, WWr and HOMA-IR tracked from 13 to 21 years.

CONCLUSION

No significant association was found between consumption of FS and GL at 13 years with cardiometabolic features at 21 years. Dietary intake and cardiometabolic outcomes tracked from adolescence into early adulthood.

Validation of the Telephone-Administered Version of the Mediterranean Diet Adherence Screener (MEDAS) Questionnaire

A 14-Item Mediterranean Diet Adherence Screener (MEDAS) questionnaire was developed and validated in face-to-face interviews, but not via telephone. The aims of this study were to evaluate the validity and reliability of a telephone-administered version of the MEDAS as well as to validate the Portuguese version of the MEDAS questionnaire. A convenience community-based sample of adults (n = 224) participated in a three-stage survey. First, trained researchers administered MEDAS via a telephone. Second, the Portuguese version of Food Frequency Questionnaire (FFQ), and MEDAS were administered in a semi-structured face-to-face interview. Finally, MEDAS was again administered via telephone. The telephone-administered MEDAS questionnaire was compared with the face-to-face-version using several metrics. The telephone-administered MEDAS was significantly correlated with the face-to-face-administered MEDAS [r = 0.805, p < 0.001; interclass correlation coefficient (ICC) = 0.803, p < 0.001] and showed strong agreement (k = 0.60). The MEDAS scores that were obtained in the first and second telephone interviews were significantly correlated (r = 0.661, p < 0.001; ICC = 0.639, p < 0.001). The overall agreement between the Portuguese version of MEDAS and the FFQ-derived Mediterranean diet adherence score had a Cohen's k = 0.39. The telephone-administered version of MEDAS is a valid tool for assessing the adherence to the Mediterranean diet and acquiring data for large population-based studies.

Burden of disease associated with dietary exposure to carcinogenic aflatoxins in Portugal using human biomonitoring approach

Human biomonitoring is an important tool to assess human exposure to chemicals, contributing to describe trends of exposure over time and to identify population groups that could be under risk. Aflatoxins are genotoxic and carcinogenic food contaminants causing hepatocellular carcinoma, the third leading cause of cancer deaths worldwide. In Portugal, scarce data are available regarding exposure to aflatoxins and no previous study used human biomonitoring data to comprehensively characterize the associated burden of disease. 24 h urine and first-morning urine paired samples were collected by 94 participants and were analyzed by liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry for the quantitative determination of aflatoxins (B₁, B₂, G₁, G₂ and M₁). Deterministic and probabilistic models were developed to assess the Portuguese exposure to aflatoxins and to estimate the health impact of this exposure, estimating the attributed Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs). Aflatoxins were detected in a maximum of 13% (AFB₁), 16% (AFB₂), 1% (AFG₁), 2% (AFG₂) and 19% (AFM₁) of the urine samples. Data obtained through the probabilistic approach revealed an estimated mean probable daily intake of 13.43 ng/kg body weight per day resulting in 0.13 extra cases of hepatocellular carcinoma, corresponding to mean annual DALYs of 172.8 for the Portuguese population (10291027 inhabitants). The present study generated for the first time and within a human biomonitoring study, reliable and crucial data to characterize the burden associated to the exposure to aflatoxins of the Portuguese population. The obtained results constitute an imperative support to risk managers in the establishment of preventive policy measures that contribute to ensure public health protection.

Projected impact of the Portuguese sugar-sweetened beverage tax on obesity incidence across different age groups: A modelling study

BACKGROUND

Excessive consumption of sugar has a well-established link with obesity. Preliminary results show that a tax levied on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) by the Portuguese government in 2017 led to a drop in sales and reformulation of these products. This study models the impact the market changes triggered by the tax levied on SSBs had on obesity incidence across various age groups in Portugal.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We performed a national market analysis and population-wide modelling study using market data for the years 2014-2018 from the Portuguese Association of Non-Alcoholic Drinks (GlobalData and Nielsen Consumer Panel), dietary data from a national survey (IAN-AF 2015-2016), and obesity incidence data from several cohort studies. Dietary energy density from SSBs was calculated by dividing the energy content (kcal/gram) of all SSBs by the total food consumption (in grams). We used the potential impact fraction (PIF) equation to model the projected impact of the tax-triggered change in sugar consumption on obesity incidence, through both volume reduction and reformulation. Results showed a reduction of 6.6 million litres of SSBs sold per year. Product reformulation led to a decrease in the average energy density of SSBs by 3.1 kcal/100 ml. This is estimated to have prevented around 40-78 cases of obesity per year between 2016 and 2018, with the biggest projected impact observed in adolescents 10 to <18 years old. The model shows that the implementation of this tax allowed for a 4 to 8 times larger projected impact against obesity than would be achieved though reformulation alone. The main limitation of this study is that the model we used includes data from various sources, which can result in biases-despite our efforts to mitigate them-related to the methodological differences between these sources.

CONCLUSIONS

The tax triggered both a reduction in demand and product reformulation. These, together, can reduce obesity levels among frequent consumers of SSBs. Such taxation is an effective population-wide intervention. Reformulation alone, without the decrease in sales, would have had a far smaller effect on obesity incidence in the Portuguese population.

Socio-demographic factors associated with physical activity and sitting time patterns in adults: An analysis based on the Portuguese Food, Nutrition and Physical Activity Survey

ABSTRACTPhysical activity (PA) and sedentary behaviours (SB) influence health. Since most people engage in different combinations of both behaviours every day, understanding the socio-demographic characteristics of adults with distinct PA and sitting time (ST) patterns is important to contribute to evidence-based planning of public health strategies. Data from a national survey on diet and activity behaviours (IAN-AF, 2015/16) including 1724 adults (50.5% women, 18-64 years) from a representative sample of Portuguese adults was used in this study. Participants were interviewed face-to-face, and the International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ) was used. Logistic regression examined the associations between socio-demographic factors each of the four-low/high PA-ST groups. PA low/high categories were defined as in IPAQ, while ST low/high categories were defined according to ST tertiles (≤180 min/day, ≥360 min/day). A 'higher risk' behaviour pattern (low PA/high ST) was present in 37.3% of the adults and was likely associated with a middle household income, and with having 12 or more years of education. The 'lower risk' (high PA/low ST) represented 26.6% of the sample and was likely associated with middle-aged adults and with having a lower educational level. Being male, young and highly educated was related to being physically active and spending large amounts of time in ST. Besides adding to the body of mixed evidence on this theme, the identification of the socio-demographic factors associated with each PA/ST pattern will permit national public health authorities to define policies and tailored actions to promote PA and reduce ST.

Atopic Dermatitis Host and Environment Model: Revisiting Therapeutic Options

Summary

Atopic Dermatitis affects both children and adults and is a serious health concern in many countries. AD is a complex disease with host and environmental factors underlying its pathology. Its treatment is multidimensional reflecting the diverse nature of its triggers and includes emollients, topical steroids and calcineurin inhibitors among others. Immunological dysfunction can be addressed broadly with systemic immunosupressors and specifically with monoclonal antibodies. Dupilumab, which targets IL-4 and IL-13 was granted approval for treatment of moderate-to-severe AD. Biologics targeting IgE/Th2 pathways may have its role in patients with overlapping AD and asthma. Psychological distress can exacerbate symptoms and is associated with increased severity of AD. Environmental triggers, such as, allergens can be addressed in selected cases with allergic immunotherapy. In this paper, we discuss AD treatment and propose a new step-by-step approach aiming at maintaining disease control and improving quality of life.

Poverty eradication and food security through agriculture in Africa: Rethinking objectives and entry points

Agriculture in Africa is expected to meet the dual objectives of providing food and helping people to escape poverty. African agriculture is dominated by smallholdings and donors generally target their agricultural support at the smallholder sector. The expectation is that if the gap between actual and potential yields can be closed, smallholders will grow sufficient crops to feed their families, with a surplus to sell, thus meeting food security needs and bringing in an income to move them out of poverty. In practice, this is often not possible. While technologies already exist that can raise smallholder farmers' yields 3 or 4 times, even under rainfed conditions, the small size of land available to them limits how much can be grown and the per capita income from agriculture is insufficient to allow people to move above the current World Bank-defined poverty line of US$1.90 per day. We link this finding with farmer typologies to further explain that there are large differences between individual farming households themselves in terms of their investment incentives and capability to benefit from field-level technologies that are aimed at increasing farm productivity. We argue for more differentiated policies for agricultural development in Africa and suggest that policymakers should be much more aware of the heterogeneity of farms and target interventions accordingly. It is important to understand where and for whom agriculture will have the main purpose of ensuring food and nutritional security and where and for whom there is the potential for significant increases in incomes and a contribution to wider economic growth. Let us recognize the distinctiveness of these targets and underlying target groups and work towards solutions that address the underlying needs.

Burden of disease attributable to exposure to aflatoxins in Portugal using Human biomonitoring data

Key messages

Portuguese population is exposed to aflatoxins, chemical food contaminants that may be harmful (carcinogenic, immunotoxic, mutagenic, teratogenic, hepatotoxic) to humans. Human biomonitoring studies provide realistic data on internal exposure at individual level, contributing to a more accurate estimation of the burden derived from this exposure.

Risk assessment of Portuguese population to multiple mycotoxins: the human biomonitoring approach

Key messages

Portuguese population is exposed to mycotoxins, chemical food contaminants that may be harmful (carcinogenic, immunotoxic, mutagenic, teratogenic, hepatotoxic) for human health. Human biomonitoring studies provide realistic data on internal exposure at individual level, allowing a more accurate knowledge of the determinants of exposure to these contaminants.

P3563The influence of circadian patterand obstructive sleep apnean of blood pressure in nocturnal arrhythmias in hypertensive patients

Introduction

There is growing evidence suggesting hypertension is related to the occurrence of arrhythmias. When occurring predominantly during the night, two potential entities commonly present in hypertensive patients could be related with increased arrhythmogenesis: (1) the lack of normal nocturnal dipping of blood pressure (BP) (non-dipping pattern of hypertension) or (2) obstructive sleep apnea (OSA). Thus, nocturnal arrhythmias (NAs) can identify hypertensive patients with OSA and/or non-dipping pattern, both related with adverse outcomes.

Aims

To determine if NAs are related with non-dipping hypertension, OSA or both.

Methods

We studied hypertensive patients who performed ambulatory blood pressure monitoring (ABPM) and also polysomnography and 24-hour Holter monitoring. Non-dipping pattern was considered when nocturnal BP reduction was inferior to 10%. Based on Holter monitoring, NAs were present when atrial fibrillation, frequent premature atrial contractions (PACs) (>30 PACs/hour), runs of >4 consecutive PACs, frequent premature ventricular contractions (PVCs) (>30PVCs/hour) or runs of >4 consecutive PVCs were present predominantly during sleeping hours. During polyssonography, apnoea/hypopnoea index (AHI) and oxygen saturation (SaO2) were analysed. Moderate to severe OSA was considered when AHI >15.

Results

We studied 104 patients [median age 62 (54–70) years, 65% male): 42 (40%) had moderate to severe OSA (median AHI=11 (6–26), mean SaO2=94% (92–95)] and 64 (61%) were non-dippers. NAs occurred in 18 patients (17%) and they were independently associated with AHI (Odds Ratio (OR) for a one unit increase 1.04, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01–1.07, p=0.03) but not with SaO2 (OR 0.96, CI 0.78–1.19, p=0.73) nor non-dipping pattern (OR 1.23, CI 0.38–3.98, p=0.72). No interaction was found between OSA and non-dipping hypertension (p=0.35). In patients with dipping pattern (n=40), AHI was higher in NAs patients comparing with no NAs patients (median AHI 29 versus 10, p=0.04), while in those with non-dipping pattern (n=64), AHI was not statistically different between patients with and without NAs (21 versus 11, p=0.12) (figure).

Figure 1

Conclusion

In this population of hypertensive patients, the presence of NAs was associated with OSA severity (i.e AHI), but not with the non-dipping pattern of hypertension. The importance of obstructive events in arrhythmogenesis seemed to be more pronounced in dipping patients, suggesting the abnormal high blood pressure during the night may also have some impact on NAs in non-dipping patients. Overall, our results suggest that OSA screening should be considered when nocturnal arrhythmias are detected in hypertensive patients, but ABPM should not be forgotten since multiple mechanisms can be involved in nocturnal arrhythmogenesis.

P3795Should we also screen for obstructive sleep apnea in patients presenting with excessive supraventricular ectopic activity?

Background

It is recommended to consider obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA) screening in atrial fibrillation (AF) patients with risk factors, due to the strong evidence of an association between these two entities. Excessive supraventricular ectopic activity (ESVEA) has been proposed to be a risk factor for AF. However, strong evidence between ESVEA and OSA has not been established.

Objective

We aimed to determine if ESVEA is associated with moderate to severe OSA since its treatment may prevent AF.

Methods

We studied patients who performed polysomnography and 24-hour Holter monitoring. Patients with atrial fibrillation were excluded. ESVEA was defined as more than 30 PACs per hour (frequent PACs) or runs of >4 consecutive PACs. The circadian pattern of PACs was also evaluated. Sleeping hours were used to define “nocturnal”. Moderate to severe OSA was defined when polyssonography demonstrated a apnoea/hypopnoea index (AHI) >15. We examined the association between ESVEA and moderate to severe OSA during wakefulness and sleep.

Results

We studied 290 patients [median age 65 (55–72) years, 62% males, body mass index (BMI) 30 (27–34)]. 112 (38%) had moderate to severe OSA. Median AHI was 11 (5–24) and mean oxygen saturation was 94% (92–95). Median PACs was 35 (9–117) and 29 patients (10%) had frequent PACs. Runs of >4PACs occurred in 114 patients (39%). Forty-three patients (15%) had predominant nocturnal PACs and 42 (14%) had nocturnal runs of PACs. Multivariate logistic regression analysis demonstrated only nocturnal PACs were associated with moderate to severe OSA (p=0.027) (table 1).

Multivariate logistic regression Odds Ratio 95% Confidence Interval p-value Male gender 4.49 2.48–8.17 <0.001 Body mass index (kg/m2) 1.09 1.03–1.15 0.002 Nocturnal PACs 4.12 1.17–14.46 0.027 Variables not included in the model: age, number of PACs/h, frequent PACs (>30 PAcs/hour), runs of PACs (>4 consecutive PACs), nocturnal frequent PACs and nocturnal runs of PACs.

Conclusion

OSA screening in patients presenting with nocturnal PACs should be routinely considered, especially in male and obese. Treating moderate to severe OSA patients with CPAP has a potential benefit in preventing ESVEA and consequently AF.