Perioperative intravenous contrast administration and the incidence of acute kidney injury after major gastrointestinal surgery: prospective, multicentre cohort study

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to determine the impact of preoperative exposure to intravenous contrast for CT and the risk of developing postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery.

METHODS

This prospective, multicentre cohort study included adults undergoing gastrointestinal resection, stoma reversal or liver resection. Both elective and emergency procedures were included. Preoperative exposure to intravenous contrast was defined as exposure to contrast administered for the purposes of CT up to 7 days before surgery. The primary endpoint was the rate of AKI within 7 days. Propensity score-matched models were adjusted for patient, disease and operative variables. In a sensitivity analysis, a propensity score-matched model explored the association between preoperative exposure to contrast and AKI in the first 48 h after surgery.

RESULTS

A total of 5378 patients were included across 173 centres. Overall, 1249 patients (23·2 per cent) received intravenous contrast. The overall rate of AKI within 7 days of surgery was 13·4 per cent (718 of 5378). In the propensity score-matched model, preoperative exposure to contrast was not associated with AKI within 7 days (odds ratio (OR) 0·95, 95 per cent c.i. 0·73 to 1·21; P = 0·669). The sensitivity analysis showed no association between preoperative contrast administration and AKI within 48 h after operation (OR 1·09, 0·84 to 1·41; P = 0·498).

CONCLUSION

There was no association between preoperative intravenous contrast administered for CT up to 7 days before surgery and postoperative AKI. Risk of contrast-induced nephropathy should not be used as a reason to avoid contrast-enhanced CT.

An interdisciplinary and catchment approach to enhancing urban flood resilience: a Melbourne case

This paper presents a novel interdisciplinary and catchment-based approach for exploring urban flood resilience. Our research identified and developed a diverse set of adaptation measures for Elwood, a suburb in Melbourne, Australia, that is vulnerable to pluvial and coastal flooding. We drew on methods from social science, urban design and environmental engineering to gain integrated insights into the opportunities for Elwood to increase its flood resilience and urban liveability. Results showed that an appropriate balance of social, infrastructural and urban design responses would be required to retreat from, accommodate and protect against flood risk. These would also deliver broader benefits such as securing water supplies through harvested stormwater and mitigating extreme heat through greener landscapes. Our interdisciplinary approach demonstrated the value of (i) engaging with the community to understand their concerns, aspirations and adaptation ideas, (ii) exploring design measures that densify and use urban forms in ways that implement adaptation measures while responding to local context, (iii) adopting modelling techniques to test the performance, robustness and economic viability of possible adaptation solutions, and (iv) innovating governance arrangements and principles needed to improve flood resilience in the Elster Creek catchment. Our research also provided valuable insight on how to operationalize interdisciplinary work in practice, highlighting the importance of sharing an impact agenda, taking a place-based approach, developing a common conceptual framework, and fostering a constructive team culture. This article is part of the theme issue 'Urban flood resilience'.

A behaviour change package to prevent hand dermatitis in nurses working in the National Health Service: results of a cluster randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Occupational hand dermatitis poses a serious risk for nurses.

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the clinical and cost-effectiveness of a complex intervention in reducing the prevalence of hand dermatitis in nurses METHODS: This was a cluster randomized controlled trial conducted at 35 hospital trusts, health boards or universities in the UK. Participants were (i) first-year student nurses with a history of atopic conditions or (ii) intensive care unit (ICU) nurses. Participants at intervention sites received access to a behavioural change programme plus moisturizing creams. Participants at control sites received usual care. The primary outcome was the change of prevalent dermatitis at follow-up (adjusted for baseline dermatitis) in the intervention vs. the control group. Randomization was blinded to everyone bar the trials unit to ensure allocation concealment. The trial was registered on the ISRCTN registry: ISRCTN53303171.

RESULTS

Fourteen sites were allocated to the intervention arm and 21 to the control arm. In total 2040 (69·5%) nurses consented to participate and were included in the intention-to-treat analysis. The baseline questionnaire was completed by 1727 (84·7%) participants. Overall, 789 (91·6%) ICU nurses and 938 (84·0%) student nurses returned completed questionnaires. Of these, 994 (57·6%) had photographs taken at baseline and follow-up (12-15 months). When adjusted for baseline prevalence of dermatitis and follow-up interval, the odds ratios (95% confidence intervals) for hand dermatitis at follow-up in the intervention group relative to the controls were 0·72 (0·33-1·55) and 0·62 (0·35-1·10) for student and ICU nurses, respectively. No harms were reported.

CONCLUSIONS

There was insufficient evidence to conclude whether our intervention was effective in reducing hand dermatitis in our populations. Linked Comment: Brans. Br J Dermatol 2020; 183:411-412.

98 The Utility of Informant History in Delineating Narratives of Gait Disorder in Older Outpatients

Background

A scholarly focus on informant history is recent in geriatric medicine, mostly focused on cognition and syncope.1 Gait disorders are common in older people and accurate diagnosis facilitates treatment.2

As there is a disparity between self-rated and ‘objective’ estimates of health among older people, and gait disorders often co-exist with cognitive impairment, there may be a significant difference between patient and informant narratives of gait disorder. We investigated the existence and extent of this disparity.

Methods

As no suitable informant measure could be sourced from the biomedical literature, inquiry with senior academic physiotherapists or through appeals on social media relating to physiotherapy, a mobility scale was designed. We included all patients with a gait disorder at serial outpatient clinics. Exclusion criteria were absence of gait disorder and dementia of sufficient severity to be unable to participate in the consent process. Paired t tests and Fischer exact test were used to analyse the data.

Results

Of 45 participants (mean age 79.8; 50% men), 35 (77.7%) had MCI or dementia. Twenty two (47.8%) informants considered an acute event precipitated an acute deterioration in mobility. Twenty seven informants (60%) had a fear of the older person falling compared to 9 (20%) of patients (p=0.0002).

Patient and informant impression of point on mobility scale differed (t=3.61, p=0.0003). Although Informants reported more falls (mean of 1.36 vs 0.91) in the previous year (t=1.63, p=0.055) this did not achieve statistical significance.

Conclusions

Our findings demonstrate a discrepancy between patient and informant narratives of level of mobility, and point to the benefit of obtaining an informant history of loss of gait stability, mobility and falls. In addition, perceptions of fear of falling may be of assistance in managing risk and independence.

References

1. Briggs R, O'Neill D. QJM 2016; 109: 301–2.

2. Briggs R, O'Neill D. Clin Med 2014; 14: 200–2.

The impact of an epilepsy nurse competency framework on the costs of supporting adults with epilepsy and intellectual disability: findings from the EpAID study

BACKGROUND

The development of a nurse-led approach to managing epilepsy in adults with an intellectual disability (ID) offers the potential of improved outcomes and lower costs of care. We undertook a cluster randomised trial to assess the impact on costs and outcomes of the provision of ID nurses working to a designated epilepsy nurse competency framework. Here, we report the impact of the intervention on costs.

METHOD

Across the United Kingdom, eight sites randomly allocated to the intervention recruited 184 participants and nine sites allocated to treatment as usual recruited 128 participants. Cost and outcome data were collected mainly by telephone interview at baseline and after 6 months. Total costs at 6 months were compared from the perspective of health and social services and society, with adjustments for pre-specified participant and cluster characteristics at baseline including costs. Missing data were imputed using multiple imputation. Uncertainty was quantified by bootstrapping.

RESULTS

The intervention was associated with lower per participant costs from a health and social services perspective of -£357 (2014/2015 GBP) (95% confidence interval -£986, £294) and from a societal perspective of -£631 (95% confidence interval -£1473, £181). Results were not sensitive to the exclusion of accommodation costs.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that the competency framework is unlikely to increase the cost of caring for people with epilepsy and ID and may reduce costs.

Ben Gigirey Z, Burdaspal P, Burrell SW, Brazeau J, Carter SJ, Ceredi A, Duffy C, Eaglesham G, Hatfeld R, Hillyard T, Jensen MKH, Lacaze JP, Langlois D, Legarda TM, Marcos E, Milandri A, Mulder PPJ, Murphy C, Ouellette S, Panganiban C, Pante L, Paulsrud MS, Pooley BP, Reeves K, Riccardi E, Rodríguez Velasco ML, Sacrey TZ, Savar V, Selwood A, Sizoo EA, Turner AD, van Ginkel R, Wotherspoon ATL. Liquid Chromatography Post-Column Oxidation (PCOX) Method for the Determination of Paralytic Shellfish Toxins in Mussels, Clams, Oysters, and Scallops: Collaborative Study

Sixteen laboratories participated in a collaborative study to evaluate method performance parameters of a liquid chromatographic method of analysis for paralytic shellfsh toxins (PST) in blue mussels (Mytilus edulis), soft shell clams (Mya arenaria), sea scallops (Placopectin magellanicus), and American oysters (Crassostrea virginicus). The specifc analogs tested included saxitoxin, neosaxitoxin, gonyautoxins-1 to -5, decarbamoyl-gonyautoxins-2 and -3, decarbamoyl-saxitoxin, and N-sulfocarbamoylgonyautoxin-2 and -3. This instrumental technique has been developed as a replacement for the current AOAC biological method (AOAC Offcial MethodSM 959.08) and an alternative to the pre-column oxidation LC method (AOAC Offcial MethodSM 2005.06). The method is based on reversed-phase liquid chromatography with post-column oxidation and fluorescence detection (excitation 330 nm and emission 390 nm). The shellfsh samples used in the study were prepared from the edible tissues of clams, mussels, oysters, and scallops to contain concentrations of PST representative of low, medium, and high toxicities and with varying profles of individual toxins. These concentrations are approximately equivalent to ½ maximum level (ML), ML, or 2×ML established by regulatory authorities (0.40, 0.80, and 1.60 mg STX·diHCl eq/kg, respectively). Recovery for the individual toxins ranged from 104 to 127%, and recovery of total toxin averaged 116%. Horwitz Ratio (HorRat) values for individual toxins in the materials included in the study were generally within the desired range of 0.3 to 2.0. For the estimation of total toxicity in the test materials, the reproducibility relative standard deviation ranged from 4.6 to 20%. A bridging study comparing the results from the study participants using the post-column oxidation (PCOX) method with the results obtained in the study director’s laboratory on the same test materials using the accepted reference method, the mouse bioassay (MBA; AOAC Offcial MethodSM 959.08), showed that the average ratio of results obtained from the two methods was 1.0. A good match of values was also achieved with a new certifed reference material. The results from this study demonstrated that the PCOX method is a suitable method of analysis for PST in shellfsh tissue and provides both an estimate of total toxicity, equivalent to that determined using the MBA AOAC Offcial MethodSM 959.08, and a detailed profle of the individual toxin present in the sample.

127Prevalence of coronary artery disease and coronary microvascular dysfunction in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction

Background/Introduction

The prevalence of epicardial coronary artery disease (CAD) and coronary microvascular dysfunction (CMD) have not been studied systematically in an unselected cohort of patients with heart failure and preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF). Both types of coronary disease may play an important role in the pathophysiology and prognosis of HFpEF.

Methods

This prospective multi-centre observational study enrolled near-consecutive patients hospitalized with HFpEF. Patients underwent invasive coronary angiography. Where possible, patients also had guidewire-based assessment of fractional flow reserve, coronary flow reserve (CFR) and index of microcirculatory resistance (IMR) performed, followed by vasoreactivity testing with intracoronary acetylcholine.

Results

A total of 75 patients underwent invasive coronary angiography. Guidewire-based assessment of FFR/CFR/IMR was performed in 62 patients, and vasoreactivity testing was possible in 41 patients. Obstructive epicardial CAD was identified in 38 patients (51%). CMD (defined as a CFR <2.0 and/or IMR ≥25) was present in 66% of patients assessed and was similarly prevalent in those with and without obstructive epicardial disease (62% vs. 69%, p 0.52). During vasoreactivity testing, 24% of those assessed had evidence of coronary microvascular endothelial dysfunction. Patients with obstructive CAD were more often male (63% vs. 38%, p 0.028), and had a history of CAD (50% vs. 19%, p 0.005), diabetes mellitus (63% vs. 41%, p 0.05), and a higher E/e' on echocardiography (median 14.4 vs. 12.3, p 0.044) than those without obstructive coronary disease. Patients with CMD had higher B-type natriuretic peptide levels (median 569 vs. 197 pg/ml, p 0.036) than those without microvascular dysfunction.

Selected baseline characteristics No obstructive CAD (n=37) Obstructive CAD (n=38) p-value No CMD (n=21) CMD (n=41) p-value Age (mean, years) 72 73 0.4 74 72 0.41 Female, n (%) 23 (62%) 14 (37%) 0.028 11 (52%) 22 (54%) 0.92 CAD history, n (%) 7 (19%) 19 (50%) 0.005 7 (33%) 12 (29%) 0.74 Diabetes mellitus, n (%) 15 (41%) 24 (63%) 0.05 11 (52%) 22 (54%) 0.92 BNP (median, pg/ml) 323 315 0.9 197 569 0.036 Ejection fraction (median, %) 59 58 0.35 60 56 0.064 E/e' (median) 12.3 14.4 0.044 14.2 12.4 0.74

Study flow diagram

Conclusion

Both epicardial CAD and CMD are common in HFpEF and each may be a therapeutic target in this condition. Although it has been hypothesized that CMD may be due to endothelial dysfunction, our findings suggest that CMD is predominantly due to structural abnormalities in HFpEF.

Acknowledgement/Funding

Chief Scientist Office

A-20 Metabolic Syndrome and Executive Functioning in Young, Middle-Aged, and Older Adults

Objective

Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is associated with increased rates of mortality and increased risk for developing dementia. Changes in brain structure and executive functioning have been reported within the literature. However, research examining cognitive performance in individuals with metabolic syndrome focuses primarily on older cohorts. As such, the effect of metabolic syndrome on cognitive functioning earlier in the lifespan is unclear. This research examined neuropsychological test performance and self-report measures in young, middle-aged, and older adults with and without MetS.

Method

Participants (n = 128) were categorized by age and metabolic status as follows: Young: n = 42, 52.4% Metabolic; Middle-Age: n = 41, 56.1% Metabolic; Older: n = 45, 51.1% Metabolic. Participants were administered the following cognitive assessments as part of a larger study: Delis-Kaplan Executive Function System (DKEFS) Color-Word Interference Test and Trail Making. Multivariate analyses of variance were used to examine the relationship between age group, metabolic status, and cognitive performance.

Results

As expected, older adults performed more poorly than young and middle-aged adults across neurocognitive assessments (p < .05). MetS adults performed more slowly on Color-Word Interference: Inhibition [F(1,114) = 5.26, p = .024, η2 = .05]; however, there were no additional significant differences between groups on cognitive tests in this sample size.

Conclusions

These findings suggest that aspects of inhibition might be impaired in MetS adults. Future studies aimed at investigating relationships between metabolic risk factors and inhibition may provide insight into effective intervention targets to delay or prevent metabolic syndrome.

A-19 Inhibition in Metabolic Syndrome and its Relationship to Orbitofrontal Cortex Activation During Sucrose Evaluation

Objective

Metabolic syndrome(MetS) is associated with disinhibited eating,executive dysfunction,and increased risk of dementia. The orbitofrontal cortex(OFC) has been implicated in literature as an area involved with decision making and reward. Decreased OFC volume has been linked to disinhibited eating and poorer executive functioning skills.However,research examining executive functioning in individuals with MetS fails to address the role of inhibition as it pertains to consumption and risk of developing MetS. We examined the relationship between neuropsychological performance and OFC activation after receiving and rating a sucrose stimulus to determine if OFC activation is associated with executive functioning deficits that may lead to developing MetS.

Method

Participants were categorized by MetS status(n = 46) and Control(n = 34) with mean age of 49.13±20.29years. During an fMRI session, the Blood-Oxygenation-Level-Dependent(BOLD) response of OFC was recorded while participants rated the pleasantness of an aqueous sucrose solution. Participants were administered the Color-Word Interference Test outside the scanner. Partial Correlation analyses controlling for age examined the relationship between OFC activation during hedonic ratings of sucrose and cognitive performance.

Results

There was a significant negative relationship between left OFC activity and Color-Word Interference:Inhibition performance for Controls(r(42) = -.365, p = .015) as compared to MetS(r(30) = .141,p > .05).

Conclusions

Less activity in the OFC during sucrose hedonic rating was associated with better performance on the Inhibition condition for Controls. We speculate that decreased activation in the OFC after sucrose consumption reflects intact executive functioning and perhaps even a preventative factor to developing MetS. Alternatively, it could indicate that Controls are actively inhibiting hedonic responses to sucrose which improves their ability on a test of inhibition.

The 'Rainbow Alliance' or the Focus Group? Sexuality and Race in the Labour Party's Electoral Strategy, 1985-7

In the 1980s, Labour struggled to respond to a hostile political context during a protracted period of opposition. Diverse figures claimed that the Left was suffering from a structural decline in a supposed 'traditional working class' voting base: contentions which only became more influential after the 1983 electoral catastrophe. Competing solutions were proffered-including building a 'rainbow alliance' informed by equalities politics, or appealing to a southern 'new working class'. The latter interpretation gained greater influence on Neil Kinnock's leadership. To fully understand why one triumphed over the other in the evolving strategy of the Labour Party, we should in part trace discourses, including contemporary 'loony Left' scandals. However, we must also recognize the importance of 'epistemological practice', which was crucial in shaping how political actors acquired knowledge and forged interpretations of the electorate. Focusing on the evolution of the epistemological practice of Kinnock's leadership team-in particular, their increasing reliance on qualitative opinion research techniques like focus groups to supplement quantitative attitudinal polling-helps explain why they became convinced that recent controversies involving race and sexuality were having acutely negative consequences for Labour nationally. This furnishes us with a deeper understanding of the relationship between grassroots and national Left-wing politics in the 1980s. It also illuminates Labour's cautious approach to equalities politics into the 1990s.

Economic assessment of aerated constructed treatment wetlands using whole life costing

There is increasing pressure on water treatment practitioners to demonstrate and deliver best value and sustainability for the end user. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the sustainability and economics, using whole life costing, of wastewater treatment technologies used in small community wastewater treatment works (WwTW) of <2,000 population equivalent (PE). Three comparable wastewater treatment technologies - a saturated vertical flow (SVF) aerated wetland, a submerged aerated filter (SAF) and a rotating biological contactor (RBC) - were compared using whole life cost (WLC) assessment. The study demonstrates that the CAPEX of a technology or asset is only a small proportion of the WLC throughout its operational life. For example, the CAPEX of the SVF aerated wetland scenario presented here is up to 74% (mean = 66 ± 6%) less than the cumulative WLC throughout a 40-year operational time scale, which demonstrates that when comparing technology economics, the most cost-effective solution is one that considers both CAPEX and OPEX. The WLC assessment results indicate that over 40 years, the SVF aerated wetland and RBC technologies have comparable net present value (NPV) WLCs which are significantly below those identified for submerged aerated filter systems (SAF) for treatment of wastewater from communities of <1,000PE. For systems designed to treat wastewater from communities of >1,000PE, the SVF aerated wetland was more economical over 40 years, followed by the RBC and then the SAF. The aerated wetland technology can therefore potentially deliver long-term cost benefits and reduced payback periods compared to alternative treatment technologies for treating wastewater from small communities.

Hepatitis C virus screening and treatment in Irish prisons from nurse managers' perspectives - a qualitative exploration

Background

Prisoners carry a greater burden of physical, communicable and psychiatric disease compared to the general population. Prison health care structures are complex and provide challenges and opportunities to engage a marginalised and poorly served group with health care including Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) screening, assessment and treatment. Optimising HCV management in prisons is a public health priority. Nurses are the primary healthcare providers in most prisons globally. Understanding the barriers and facilitators to prisoners engaging in HCV care from the perspectives of nurses is the first step in implementing effective strategies to eliminate HCV from prison settings. The aim of this study was to identify the barriers and facilitators to HCV screening and treatment in Irish prisons from a nurse perspective and inform the implementation of a national prison-based HCV screening program.

Methods

A qualitative study using focus group methodology underpinned by grounded theory for analysis in a national group of nurse managers (n = 12).

Results

The following themes emerged from the analysis; security and safety requirements impacting patient access, staffing and rostering issues, prison nurses’ skill set and concerns around phlebotomy, conflict between maintaining confidentiality and concerns for personal safety, peer workers, prisoners’ lack of knowledge, fear of treatment and stigma, inter-prison variations in prisoner health needs and health service delivery and priority, linkage to care, timing of screening and stability of prison life.

Conclusions

Prison nurses are uniquely placed to identify barriers and facilitators to HCV screening and treatment in prisoners and inform changes to health care practice and policy that will optimise the public health opportunity that incarceration provides.

Hepatitis C virus screening and treatment in Irish prisons from a governor and prison officer perspective - a qualitative exploration

BACKGROUND

Prisons are a key location to access Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) infected people who inject drugs (PWID). Prison health care structures are complex and optimising health care delivery to this high need, marginalised and underserved population remains challenging. Despite international guidelines recommending that prisons are a priority location for HCV screening and treatment levels of prisoner engagement in HCV care remain low. Competing priorities between security and healthcare is a key feature of prison health care. A collaborative approach to health care delivery in prisons can maximise the benefits for prisoners, staff and the wider community.

AIM

To identify the barriers and enablers to HCV screening and treatment in Irish prisons and inform the implementation of a HCV screening program within the Irish Prison Services (IPS).

METHODS

Qualitative study using focus group methodology underpinned by grounded theory.

RESULTS

The following themes emerged from the analysis: priority of safety and security, staffing and resources, concerns about personal risk, lack of knowledge, concerns around confidentiality, prisoners' fear of treatment and stigma, timing of screening, use of peer workers, in-reach hepatology and fibroscanning services. The primary role of prison security is to ensure the safety of staff and prisoners with a secondary but important supporting role in health care delivery. Maintaining adequate staffing levels and the provision of training and education were seen as priorities and impacted on prison officers' fear for personal safety and risk of HCV transmission. Opt-out screening and peer support workers had high levels of support among participants.

CONCLUSION

Upscaling HCV management in prisons requires an in-depth understanding of all barriers and facilitators to HCV screening and treatment. Engaging prison officers in the planning and delivery of health care initiatives is a key strategy to optimising the public health opportunity that prisons provides.

The surface eroding thermocouple for fast heat flux measurement in DIII-D

A novel type of surface eroding thermocouple (SETC) has been tested and demonstrated in the small angle slot (SAS) divertor of DIII-D for fast local heat flux measurements. The thermojunction of the SETC is formed between two thin (10 μm) ribbons, which are filed over to create microfiber junctions. These thermocouples are able to be exposed directly to the plasma at surface temperatures exceeding 2000 °C and are capable of sub-10 ms time resolution. Before installation in SAS, the SETCs were exposed in the lower DIII-D divertor during L-mode and H-mode discharges, from which results are presented. In preliminary tests, SETCs proved to be a qualified diagnostic to accurately measure both the intra-edge localized mode (ELM) and inter-ELM heat flux during H-mode shots with high frequency ELMs (hundreds of Hz) and to resolve heat flux profiles during strike point sweeps. The heat fluxes measured by using SETCs are consistent with the heat fluxes measured by using IR cameras and Langmuir probes. These new diagnostic capabilities will complement the existing IR camera measurements and will be of particularly significant value to measure surface heat flux in the SAS divertor or other regions where the IR camera lacks line of sight.

Margins and survival in oral cancer

In the surgical management of oral squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) we aim to resect the tumour with clear margins in all planes. The aim of this study was to identify and compare overall survival in a group of 591 patients who had resections, and to relate this to the clearance of margins at the tumour bed. We used life tables to calculate survival at one, two, three, five, and 10 years after diagnosis by margin (clear=5mm or more; close=2-5mm; and involved=less than 2mm). Kaplan-Meier curves were produced for the margins alone, which were defined as clear in 480 patients (81%), close in 63 (11%), and involved in 48 (8%). Five-year survival was 81%, 75%, and 54% for clear, close, and involved margins, respectively, which highlights the importance of clear margins for survival. There is a significant prognostic implication associated with close, and particularly with involved, margins.

Marie M, Stickney K, VanBuecken D, Vellek B, Webber C, Allen L, Bollyk J, Hilderman N, Ismail H, Lamola S, Sanda S, Vendettuoli H, Tridgell D, Monzavi R, Bock M, Fisher L, Halvorson M, Jeandron D, Kim M, Wood J, Geffner M, Kaufman F, Parkman R, Salazar C, Goland R, Clynes R, Cook S, Freeby M, Gallagher MP, Gandica R, Greenberg E, Kurland A, Pollak S, Wolk A, Chan M, Koplimae L, Levine E, Smith K, Trast J, DiMeglio L, Blum J, Evans-Molina C, Hufferd R, Jagielo B, Kruse C, Patrick V, Rigby M, Spall M, Swinney K, Terrell J, Christner L, Ford L, Lynch S, Menendez M, Merrill P, Pescovitz M, Rodriguez H, Alleyn C, Baidal D, Fay S, Gaglia J, Resnick B, Szubowicz S, Weir G, Benjamin R, Conboy D, deManbey A, Jackson R, Jalahej H, Orban T, Ricker A, Wolfsdorf J, Zhang HH, Wilson D, Aye T, Baker B, Barahona K, Buckingham B, Esrey K, Esrey T, Fathman G, Snyder R, Aneja B, Chatav M, Espinoza O, Frank E, Liu J, Perry J, Pyle R, Rigby A, Riley K, Soto A, Gitelman S, Adi S, Anderson M, Berhel A, Breen K, Fraser K, Gerard-Gonzalez A, Jossan P, Lustig R, Moassesfar S, Mugg A, Ng D, Prahalod P, Rangel-Lugo M, Sanda S, Tarkoff J, Torok C, Wesch R, Aslan I, Buchanan J, Cordier J, Hamilton C, Hawkins L, Ho T, Jain A, Ko K, Lee T, Phelps S, Rosenthal S, Sahakitrungruang T, Stehl L, Taylor L, Wertz M, Wong J, Philipson L, Briars R, Devine N, Littlejohn E, Grant T, Gottlieb P, Klingensmith G, Steck A, Alkanani A, Bautista K, Bedoy R, Blau A, Burke B, Cory L, Dang M, Fitzgerald-Miller L, Fouts A, Gage V, Garg S, Gesauldo P, Gutin R, Hayes C, Hoffman M, Ketchum K, Logsden-Sackett N, Maahs D, Messer L, Meyers L, Michels A, Peacock S, Rewers M, Rodriguez P, Sepulbeda F, Sippl R, Steck A, Taki I, Tran BK, Tran T, Wadwa RP, Zeitler P, Barker J, Barry S, Birks L, Bomsburger L, Bookert T, Briggs L, Burdick P, Cabrera R, Chase P, Cobry E, Conley A, Cook G, Daniels J, DiDomenico D, Eckert J, Ehler A, Eisenbarth G, Fain P, Fiallo-Scharer R, Frank N, Goettle H, Haarhues M, Harris S, Horton L, Hutton J, Jeffrrey J, Jenison R, Jones K, Kastelic W, King MA, Lehr D, Lungaro J, Mason K, Maurer H, Nguyen L, Proto A, Realsen J, Schmitt K, Schwartz M, Skovgaard S, Smith J, Vanderwel B, Voelmle M, Wagner R, Wallace A, Walravens P, Weiner L, Westerhoff B, Westfall E, Widmer K, Wright H, Schatz D, Abraham A, Atkinson M, Cintron M, Clare-Salzler M, Ferguson J, Haller M, Hosford J, Mancini D, Rohrs H, Silverstein J, Thomas J, Winter W, Cole G, Cook R, Coy R, Hicks E, Lewis N, Marks J, Pugliese A, Blaschke C, Matheson D, Sanders-Branca N, Sosenko J, Arazo L, Arce R, Cisneros M, Sabbag S, Moran A, Gibson C, Fife B, Hering B, Kwong C, Leschyshyn J, Nathan B, Pappenfus B, Street A, Boes MA, Eck SP, Finney L, Fischer TA, Martin A, Muzamhindo CJ, Rhodes M, Smith J, Wagner J, Wood B, Becker D, Delallo K, Diaz A, Elnyczky B, Libman I, Pasek B, Riley K, Trucco M, Copemen B, Gwynn D, Toledo F, Rodriguez H, Bollepalli S, Diamond F, Eyth E, Henson D, Lenz A, Shulman D, Raskin P, Adhikari S, Dickson B, Dunnigan E, Lingvay I, Pruneda L, Ramos-Roman M, Raskin P, Rhee C, Richard J, Siegelman M, Sturges D, Sumpter K, White P, Alford M, Arthur J, Aviles-Santa ML, Cordova E, Davis R, Fernandez S, Fordan S, Hardin T, Jacobs A, Kaloyanova P, Lukacova-Zib I, Mirfakhraee S, Mohan A, Noto H, Smith O, Torres N, Wherrett D, Balmer D, Eisel L, Kovalakovska R, Mehan M, Sultan F, Ahenkorah B, Cevallos J, Razack N, Ricci MJ, Rhode A, Srikandarajah M, Steger R, Russell WE, Black M, Brendle F, Brown A, Moore D, Pittel E, Robertson A, Shannon A, Thomas JW, Herold K, Feldman L, Sherwin R, Tamborlane W, Weinzimer S, Toppari J, Kallio T, Kärkkäinen M, Mäntymäki E, Niininen T, Nurmi B, Rajala P, Romo M, Suomenrinne S, Näntö-Salonen K, Simell O, Simell T, Bosi E, Battaglia M, Bianconi E, Bonfanti R, Grogan P, Laurenzi A, Martinenghi S, Meschi F, Pastore M, Falqui L, Muscato MT, Viscardi M, Castleden H, Farthing N, Loud S, Matthews C, McGhee J, Morgan A, Pollitt J, Elliot-Jones R, Wheaton C, Knip M, Siljander H, Suomalainen H, Colman P, Healy F, Mesfin S, Redl L, Wentworth J, Willis J, Farley M, Harrison L, Perry C, Williams F, Mayo A, Paxton J, Thompson V, Volin L, Fenton C, Carr L, Lemon E, Swank M, Luidens M, Salgam M, Sharma V, Schade D, King C, Carano R, Heiden J, Means N, Holman L, Thomas I, Madrigal D, Muth T, Martin C, Plunkett C, Ramm C, Auchus R, Lane W, Avots E, Buford M, Hale C, Hoyle J, Lane B, Muir A, Shuler S, Raviele N, Ivie E, Jenkins M, Lindsley K, Hansen I, Fadoju D, Felner E, Bode B, Hosey R, Sax J, Jefferies C, Mannering S, Prentis R, She J, Stachura M, Hopkins D, Williams J, Steed L, Asatapova E, Nunez S, Knight S, Dixon P, Ching J, Donner T, Longnecker S, Abel K, Arcara K, Blackman S, Clark L, Cooke D, Plotnick L, Levin P, Bromberger L, Klein K, Sadurska K, Allen C, Michaud D, Snodgrass H, Burghen G, Chatha S, Clark C, Silverberg J, Wittmer C, Gardner J, LeBoeuf C, Bell P, McGlore O, Tennet H, Alba N, Carroll M, Baert L, Beaton H, Cordell E, Haynes A, Reed C, Lichter 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Manley L, Nemery R, Charlton W, Smith P, Kerr L, Steindel-Kopp B, Alamaguer M, Tabisola-Nuesca E, Pendersen A, Larson N, Cooper-Olviver H, Chan D, Fitz-Patrick D, Carreira T, Park Y, Ruhaak R, Liljenquist D. A Type 1 Diabetes Genetic Risk Score Predicts Progression of Islet Autoimmunity and Development of Type 1 Diabetes in Individuals at Risk

OBJECTIVE

We tested the ability of a type 1 diabetes (T1D) genetic risk score (GRS) to predict progression of islet autoimmunity and T1D in at-risk individuals.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We studied the 1,244 TrialNet Pathway to Prevention study participants (T1D patients' relatives without diabetes and with one or more positive autoantibodies) who were genotyped with Illumina ImmunoChip (median [range] age at initial autoantibody determination 11.1 years [1.2-51.8], 48% male, 80.5% non-Hispanic white, median follow-up 5.4 years). Of 291 participants with a single positive autoantibody at screening, 157 converted to multiple autoantibody positivity and 55 developed diabetes. Of 953 participants with multiple positive autoantibodies at screening, 419 developed diabetes. We calculated the T1D GRS from 30 T1D-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms. We used multivariable Cox regression models, time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves, and area under the curve (AUC) measures to evaluate prognostic utility of T1D GRS, age, sex, Diabetes Prevention Trial-Type 1 (DPT-1) Risk Score, positive autoantibody number or type, HLA DR3/DR4-DQ8 status, and race/ethnicity. We used recursive partitioning analyses to identify cut points in continuous variables.

RESULTS

Higher T1D GRS significantly increased the rate of progression to T1D adjusting for DPT-1 Risk Score, age, number of positive autoantibodies, sex, and ethnicity (hazard ratio [HR] 1.29 for a 0.05 increase, 95% CI 1.06-1.6; P = 0.011). Progression to T1D was best predicted by a combined model with GRS, number of positive autoantibodies, DPT-1 Risk Score, and age (7-year time-integrated AUC = 0.79, 5-year AUC = 0.73). Higher GRS was significantly associated with increased progression rate from single to multiple positive autoantibodies after adjusting for age, autoantibody type, ethnicity, and sex (HR 2.27 for GRS >0.295, 95% CI 1.47-3.51; P = 0.0002).

CONCLUSIONS

The T1D GRS independently predicts progression to T1D and improves prediction along T1D stages in autoantibody-positive relatives.