Reliability and validity of the Japanese version of the 4A's Test for delirium screening in the elderly patient

Although many screening tools for delirium are available, delirium is still occasionally overlooked or misdiagnosed. One of the reasons for this is the lack of brief screening tools that do not require specialized training to use. The 4 'A's test (the 4AT) is a validated screening tool for delirium that can be administered in a very short time without specialized training. Herein, we evaluated the reliability and validity of the Japanese version of the 4AT (the 4AT-J). A total of 150 patients aged ≥ 65 years were enrolled. Their demographics and clinical characteristics were obtained within 24 hr of their hospitalization. On each patient's high-risk day of developing delirium, the 4AT-J was administered by a nurse, and the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 5th edition (DSM-Ⅴ) and the Japanese version of Delirium Rating Scale-Revised-98 (DRS-98-J) were administered by a psychiatrist. Our analyses revealed that when a cut-off score of 4, the 4AT-J showed high sensitivity and specificity. The Cronbach's α-coefficient was similar to that of the original version. A receiver operating curve analysis showed sufficient power of the 4AT-J to discriminate delirium. The 4AT-J showed adequate reliability and validity for delirium screening in elderly patients.

Evolution of Survival Impact of Molecular Target Agents in Patients with Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The prognosis of patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is expected to improve as multiple molecular target agents (MTAs) are now available. However, the impact of the availability of sequential MTAs has not been fully verified yet.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

We retrospectively collected the data on the whole clinical course of 877 patients who received any MTAs as first-line systemic therapy for advanced HCC between June 2009 and March 2019. The study population was divided into 3 groups according to the date of first-line MTA administration (period 1: 2009-2012, n = 267; period 2: 2013-2016, n = 352; period 3: 2017-2019, n = 258). Then, we compared the number of MTAs used, overall survival (OS), and MTA treatment duration among the 3 groups. Analysis was also performed separately for advanced-stage and nonadvanced-stage HCC. The proportion of patients who received multiple MTAs was remarkably increased over time (1.1%, 10.2%, and 42.6% in periods 1, 2, and 3, respectively, p < 0.001). The median OS times were prolonged to 10.4, 11.3, and 15.2 months in periods 1, 2, and 3, respectively (p = 0.016). Similarly, the MTA treatment durations were extended (2.7, 3.2, and 6.6 months in periods 1, 2, and 3, respectively; p < 0.001). We confirmed that the correlation between OS and MTA treatment duration was strengthened (period 1: 0.395, period 2: 0.505, and period 3: 0.667). All these trends were pronounced in the patients with advanced-stage HCC but limited in the patients with nonadvanced-stage HCC.

CONCLUSIONS

The availability of multiple MTAs had steadily improved the prognosis of patients with advanced HCC patients, particularly advanced-stage HCC patients.

ACTN4 gene amplification is a predictive biomarker for adjuvant chemotherapy with UFT in stage I lung adenocarcinomas

Although adjuvant tegafur/uracil (UFT) is recommended for patients with completely resected stage I non‐small‐cell lung cancer (NSCLC) in Japan, only one‐third of cases has received adjuvant chemotherapy (ADJ) according to real‐world data. Therefore, robust predictive biomarkers for selecting ADJ or observation (OBS) without ADJ are needed. Patients who underwent complete resection of stage I lung adenocarcinoma with or without adjuvant UFT were enrolled. The status of ACTN4 gene amplification was analyzed by FISH. Statistical analyses to determine whether the status of ACTN4 gene amplification affected recurrence‐free survival (RFS) were carried out. Formalin‐fixed, paraffin‐embedded samples from 1136 lung adenocarcinomas were submitted for analysis of ACTN4 gene amplification. Ninety‐nine (8.9%) of 1114 cases were positive for ACTN4 gene amplification. In the subgroup analysis of patients aged 65 years or older, the ADJ group had better RFS than the OBS group in the ACTN4‐positive cohort (hazard ratio [HR], 0.084, 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.009‐0.806; P = .032). The difference in RFS between the ADJ group and the OBS group was not significant in ACTN4‐negative cases (all ages: HR, 1.214; 95% CI, 0.848‐1.738; P = .289). Analyses of ACTN4 gene amplification contributed to the decision regarding postoperative ADJ for stage I lung adenocarcinomas, preventing recurrence, improving the quality of medical care, preventing the unnecessary side‐effects of ADJ, and saving medical costs.

Noninvasive risk stratification of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasia with malignant potential by serum apolipoprotein-A2-isoforms

Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs) are premalignant lesions of pancreatic cancer. An accurate serum biomarker, which allows earlier identification of asymptomatic individuals with high-risk for developing cancer, is of urgent need. Apolipoprotein A2-isoforms (apoA2-i) have previously been identified as biomarkers in pancreatic cancer. This study investigates a potential clinical application of the serum apoA2-i for risk stratification of IPMN and associated cancer. The concentrations of apoA2-i were retrospectively determined in 523 patient sera specimen, composed of 305 IPMNs with preinvasive lesions with different grades of dysplasia and invasive cancer, 140 pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma, 78 with other cystic lesions and healthy controls cohorts, using an apoA2-i enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay kit. The diagnostic performance of serum apoA2-i was assessed and compared to routine clinical marker CA 19-9. ApoA2-i levels were significantly reduced in all IPMN samples regardless of stage compared to healthy controls. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis of IPMNs with high-grade dysplasia and IPMN with associated carcinoma revealed the area under curve (AUC) of 0.91 and >0.94, respectively. The respective sensitivities were 70% and 83% with a specificity of 95%, and significantly higher than the gold standard biomarker CA 19-9. AUC values of apoA2-i for detecting IPMN-associated carcinoma of colloid and ductal subtypes were 0.990 and 0.885, respectively. ApoA2-i has the potential to early detect the risk of malignancy of patients with IPMN. The serological apoA2-i test in combination with imaging modalities could help improve the diagnosis of IPMN malignancy. Further validation in larger and independent international cohort studies is needed.

Second-line chemotherapy after early disease progression during first-line chemotherapy containing bevacizumab for patients with metastatic colorectal cancer

Background

The ML18174 study, which showed benefits of bevacizumab (BEV) continuation beyond progression (BBP) for metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC), excluded patients with first-line progression-free survival (PFS) shorter than 3 months. The present study was conducted to evaluate the efficacy of second-line chemotherapy after early disease progression during first-line chemotherapy containing bevacizumab.

Methods

The subjects of this study were mCRC patients who experienced disease progression < 100 days from commencement of first-line chemotherapy containing BEV initiated between Apr 2007 and Dec 2016. Second-line chemotherapy regimens were classified into two groups with and without BEV/other anti-angiogenic agents (BBP and non-BBP) and efficacy and safety were compared using univariate and multivariate analysis.

Results

Sixty-one patients were identified as subjects of this study. Baseline characteristics were numerically different between BBP (n = 37) and non-BBP (n = 25) groups, such as performance status (0–1/> 2/unknown: 89/8/3 and 56/40/4%), RAS status (wild/mutant/unknown: 32/54/16 and 76/16/8%). Response rate was 8.6% in BBP group and 9.1% in non-BBP group (p = 1.00). Median PFS was 3.9 months in BBP group and 2.8 months in non-BBP group (HR [95%CI]: 0.79 [0.46–1.34], p = 0.373, adjusted HR: 0.87 [0.41–1.82], p = 0.707). Median overall survival was 8.5 months in BBP group and 5.4 months in non-BBP group (HR 0.66 [0.38–1.12], p = 0.125, adjusted HR 0.53 [0.27–1.07], p = 0.078).

Conclusion

In mCRC patients who experienced early progression in first-line chemotherapy, second-line chemotherapy showed poor clinical outcomes regardless use of anti-angiogenic agents.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12885-021-08890-6.

Probing Gluon Spin-Momentum Correlations in Transversely Polarized Protons through Midrapidity Isolated Direct Photons in p^{↑}+p Collisions at sqrt[s]=200 GeV

Studying spin-momentum correlations in hadronic collisions offers a glimpse into a three-dimensional picture of proton structure. The transverse single-spin asymmetry for midrapidity isolated direct photons in p^{↑}+p collisions at sqrt[s]=200  GeV is measured with the PHENIX detector at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC). Because direct photons in particular are produced from the hard scattering and do not interact via the strong force, this measurement is a clean probe of initial-state spin-momentum correlations inside the proton and is in particular sensitive to gluon interference effects within the proton. This is the first time direct photons have been used as a probe of spin-momentum correlations at RHIC. The uncertainties on the results are a 50-fold improvement with respect to those of the one prior measurement for the same observable, from the Fermilab E704 experiment. These results constrain gluon spin-momentum correlations in transversely polarized protons.

Fast-slow atrioventricular nodal reentrant tachycardia phenotype mimicking the slow-slow type

Background

Fast-slow (F/S-) atrioventricular (AV) nodal reentrant tachycardia (AVNRT) is characterized by a short atrio-His (AH) interval and the earliest site of atrial activation (EAA) in the proximal coronary sinus (EAA-CS), while slow-slow (S/S-) AVNRT presents a long AH interval and EAA-CS. Those intracardiac appearances are initial indicators for making a diagnosis.

Purpose

To identify an unknown phenotype of F/S-AVNRT.

Methods

Among 46 consecutive patients with F/S-AVNRT, 6 patients (1 man, age 59±9) had an apparent but not typical (pseudo-) S/S-AVNRT during an electrophysiologic study. In 2 patients, pseudo-S/S-AVNRT was clinically documented.

Results

In all 6 patients, the diagnosis of F/S-AVNRT was made by an exclusion of atrial tachycardia with findings of 1) a V-A-V response following ventricular entrainment or 2) termination without atrial capture by ventricular pacing, and an exclusion of AV reentrant tachycardia with a ventriculoatrial dissociation during an initial (so-called QRS transition) zone of ventricular entrainment. An initial A-A-V activation sequence on atrial induction of F/S-AVNRT observed in 1 patient and Wenckebach-type AV block during ongoing F/S-AVNRT developing in 3 patients suggested the presence of the lower common pathway (LCP). Like the typical S/S-AVNRT, pseudo-S/S-AVNRT was induced with atrial stimulation after a jump in the AH interval or double ventricular response. However, in all patients, the pseudo-S/S-AVNRT transited to F/S-AVNRT following AV block in a single cycle and/or pseudo-S/S-AVNRT transited from spontaneously or triggered by atrial contractions. Importantly, on these transitions, the atrial cycle length (CL) and EAA-CS remained unchanged, that is, the atrial CL of S/S-AVNRT was almost identical to that of F/S-AVNRT, suggesting that the essential circuit of both tachycardias was identical. Actually, both tachycardias were cured by ablation at a single site in the traditional slow pathway (SP). Collectively, the pseudo-S/S-AVNRT was diagnosed as another phenotype of F/S-AVNRT accompanied by sustained antegrade conduction via another bystander (likely the left-sided or superior) SP breaking through the His bundle owing to the repetitive antegrade block at the LCP occurring by linking phenomenon, thus representing a long AH interval during the ongoing F/S-AVNRT. When the antegrade conduction is blocked at the bystander SP during the pseudo-S/S-AVNRT, releasing the linking phenomenon, the subsequent antegrade conduction reach the His-bundle via the fast pathway, thus returning to F/S-AVNRT.

Conclusions

An unknown, but not rare F/S-AVNRT phenotype exists that apparently mimics the typical S/S-AVNRT and is also an unknown subtype of apparent S/S-AVNRT. The presence of this pseudo-S/S-AVNRT suggests the limitation of classifying types of AVNRT based on AH and HA intervals during tachycardia. Understandings of this phenotype can advance a diagnosis of atypical AVNRT with multiple phenotypes.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: None.

Bias in odds ratios from logistic regression methods with sparse data sets

BACKGROUND

Logistic regression models are widely used to evaluate the association between a binary outcome and a set of covariates. However, when there are few study participants at the outcome and covariate levels, the models lead to bias of the odds ratio (OR) estimated using the maximum likelihood (ML) method. This bias is known as sparse data bias, and the estimated OR can yield impossibly large values because of data sparsity. However, this bias has been ignored in most epidemiological studies.

METHODS

We review several methods for reducing sparse data bias in logistic regression. The primary aim is to evaluate the Bayesian methods in comparison with the classical methods, such as the ML, Firth's, and exact methods using a simulation study. We also apply these methods to a real data set.

RESULTS

Our simulation results indicate that the bias of the OR from the ML, Firth's, and exact methods is considerable. Furthermore, the Bayesian methods with hyper-g prior modeling of the prior covariance matrix for regression coefficients reduced the bias under the null hypothesis, whereas the Bayesian methods with log F-type priors reduced the bias under the alternative hypothesis.

CONCLUSION

The Bayesian methods using log F-type priors and hyper-g prior are superior to the ML, Firth's, and exact methods when fitting logistic models to sparse data sets. The choice of a preferable method depends on the null and alternative hypothesis. Sensitivity analysis is important to understand the robustness of the results in sparse data analysis.

A Phase I study of pevonedistat plus capecitabine plus oxaliplatin in patients with advanced gastric cancer refractory to platinum (NCCH-1811)

Based on synergistic anti-tumor effects between blockades of NEDD8 activating enzyme and a platinum in preclinical studies, this Phase I study is designed to investigate the safety and tolerability of pevonedistat in combination with capecitabine plus oxaliplatin as third-line or later treatment in patients with unresectable advanced/recurrent gastric cancer who were previously treated with fluoropyrimidines and platinum (cisplatin or oxaliplatin) as the first-line treatment and paclitaxel (including nab-paclitaxel) as the second-line treatment. The aim of this trial is to determine the recommended dose of pevonedistat and to see its pharmacokinetics in combination with capecitabine plus oxaliplatin in the dose-finding part and explore its efficacy and safety in the expansion part. Trial registration number: jRCT2031190020 (jRCTs: the Japan Registry of Clinical Trials).

Impact of preoperative chemotherapy as initial treatment for advanced gastric cancer with peritoneal metastasis limited to positive peritoneal lavage cytology (CY1) or localized peritoneal metastasis (P1a): a multi-institutional retrospective study

BACKGROUND

Gastric cancer (GC) patients with peritoneal metastasis are defined as stage IV in the Japanese classification of GC. For patients with peritoneal metastasis limited to positive peritoneal lavage cytology (CY1) and/or localized peritoneal metastasis (P1a), gastrectomy followed by S1 monotherapy is one of the most widely accepted therapeutic strategy in Japan. This study investigated the efficacy of preoperative chemotherapy as initial treatment in GC patients with CY1 and/or P1a.

METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed GC patients diagnosed with CY1 and/or P1a at 34 institutions in Japan between 2008 and 2012. Selection criteria were: adenocarcinoma, no distant metastasis except CY1 or P1a, and no prior treatment. The subjects were divided into an Initial-Chemotherapy group and an Initial-Surgery group, according to the initial treatment.

RESULTS

A total of 824 patients were collected and 713 eligible patients were identified for this study. As the initial treatment, 150 patients received chemotherapy (Initial-Cx), and 563 patients underwent surgery (Initial-Sx). Initial-Cx regimens were cisplatin plus S1/docetaxel plus cisplatin plus S1/others (n = 90/37/23). Both overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) were similar between the Initial-Cx and Initial-Sx groups (median OS 24.8 and 24.0 months, HR 1.07, 95% CI 0.87-1.3; median PFS 14.9 and 13.9 months, HR 1.04, 95% CI 0.85-1.27). The 5-year OS rates were 22.3% in the Initial-Cx group and 21.5% in the Initial-Sx group.

CONCLUSIONS

Although, the preoperative chemotherapy did not show a survival benefit for GC patients with CY1 and/or P1a, initial-Cx showed favorable survival in patients who converted to P0 and CY0.

Biomechanical Evaluation of Opponensplasty for Low Median Palsy: A Cadaver Study

Purpose

Impaired thumb opposition associated with advanced carpal tunnel syndrome may be treated by opponensplasty at the time of open carpal tunnel release. However, it is unclear which opponensplasty technique achieves the greatest functional improvement. This study aimed to compare the biomechanics of thumb opposition after Camitz, modified Camitz, and Burkhalter opponensplasties.

Methods

We used 6 fresh-frozen cadaveric arms. Each procedure was reproduced on each arm: Camitz opponensplasty, modified Camitz opponensplasty involving palmaris longus transfer routed around the flexor carpi ulnaris pulley, and Burkhalter opponensplasty. Arms were fixed with the wrist in 0° flexion and the forearm in neutral pronosupination, and sensors were placed on the thumbnail, radial styloid, and dorsal aspect of the second metacarpal head. The donor tendon was pulled using a mechanical testing machine with a maximum force of 25 N, and the locations of the sensors in thumb opposition were recorded. The first web space and thumb pronation angles were measured for each procedure and compared.

Results

The mean first web space and pronation angles produced using 25 N were 55° and 20°, 57° and 26°, and 53° and 29° for the Camitz, modified Camitz, and Burkhalter opponensplasties, respectively. The first web space angle was significantly larger after modified Camitz opponensplasty compared with Burkhalter opponensplasty with 25 N loading. Camitz opponensplasty resulted in a significantly smaller pronation angle compared with modified Camitz and Burkhalter opponensplasties with 25 N loading.

Conclusions

The modified Camitz opponensplasty produces a relatively balanced biomechanical outcome in terms of the first web space and pronation angles. Conversely, Burkhalter opponensplasty has been shown to be a favorable technique for improving pronation.

Clinical relevance

Modified Camitz opponensplasty with a pulley offers effective restoration of thumb opposition, including pronation. On the other hand, Burkhalter opponensplasty represents a suitable option not only for patients with high median palsy and injury to the palmar aponeurosis but also for those who require improved pronation.

Meta-analysis using flexible random-effects distribution models

BACKGROUND

In meta-analysis, the normal distribution assumption has been adopted in most systematic reviews of random-effects distribution models due to its computational and conceptual simplicity. However, this restrictive model assumption is possibly unsuitable and might have serious influences in practices.

METHODS

We provide two examples of real-world evidence that clearly show that the normal distribution assumption is explicitly unsuitable. We propose new random-effects meta-analysis methods using five flexible random-effects distribution models that can flexibly regulate skewness, kurtosis and tailweight: skew normal distribution, skew t-distribution, asymmetric Subbotin distribution, Jones-Faddy distribution, and sinh-arcsinh distribution. We also developed a statistical package, flexmeta, that can easily perform these methods.

RESULTS

Using the flexible random-effects distribution models, the results of the two meta-analyses were markedly altered, potentially influencing the overall conclusions of these systematic reviews.

CONCLUSIONS

The restrictive normal distribution assumption in the random-effects model can yield misleading conclusions. The proposed flexible methods can provide more precise conclusions in systematic reviews.

Effects of ipragliflozin versus metformin in combination with sitagliptin on bone and muscle in Japanese patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus: Subanalysis of a prospective, randomized, controlled study (PRIME-V study)

AIMS/INTRODUCTION

Recent randomized clinical trials have suggested that sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors might reduce cardiovascular events and heart failure, and have renal protective effects. Despite these remarkable benefits, the effects of sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors on bone and muscle are unclear.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A subanalysis of a randomized controlled study was carried out to evaluate the effects of the sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitor, ipragliflozin, versus metformin on bone and muscle in Japanese patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (baseline body mass index ≥22 kg/m2 and hemoglobin A1c 7-10%) who were already receiving sitagliptin. These patients were randomly administered ipragliflozin 50 mg or metformin 1,000-1,500 mg daily. The effects of these medications on the bone formation marker, bone alkali phosphatase; the bone resorption marker, tartrate-resistant acid phosphatase 5b (TRACP-5b); handgrip strength; abdominal cross-sectional muscle area; and bone density of the fourth lumbar vertebra were evaluated.

RESULTS

After 24 weeks of treatment, the changes in bone density of the fourth lumbar vertebra, handgrip strength and abdominal cross-sectional muscle area were not significantly different between the two groups. However, TRACP-5b levels increased in patients treated with ipragliflozin compared with patients treated with metformin (median 11.94 vs -10.30%, P < 0.0001), showing that ipragliflozin can promote bone resorption.

CONCLUSIONS

There were no adverse effects on bone or muscle when sitagliptin was used in combination with either ipragliflozin or metformin. However, ipragliflozin combination increased the levels of TRACP-5b. A long-term study is required to further understand the effects of this TRACP-5b increase caused by ipragliflozin.

FRONTiER: A feasibility trial of nivolumab with neoadjuvant CF or DCF therapy for locally advanced esophageal carcinoma (JCOG1804E)—The short-term results of cohort A and B

202

Background: The standard neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) in Japan for locally advanced esophageal squamous cell cancer (ESCC) is CDDP + 5-FU (CF). Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICI) such as nivolumab provide a survival benefit in ESCC, and have potential as NAC agents in lung, skin, and breast cancers, amongst others. However, whether ICI are efficacious in combination with cytotoxic agents, and whether ICI impact the safety of subsequent surgery after they are used as NAC for ESCC patients (pts) is currently unclear. Methods: FRONTiER is a multi-cohort phase I study designed to evaluate the safety and efficacy of ICI combined with NAC in ESCC. Histologically proven ESCC pts with cT1N1-3M0 or cT2-3N0-3M0 (8th-UICC TNM classification), 20–75 years old, PS ≤ 1, no prior therapies against any cancer were eligible. The primary endpoint was the incidence of dose-limiting toxicities (DLT) from the initial dose to the 30th postoperative day. This study contained 4 experimental cohorts, the NAC regimen of cohort A consisted of 2 courses of CDDP at 80 mg/m2, nivolumab at 360 mg/body on day 1 and 5-FU at 800 mg/m2 on days 1–5, q3wks. The regimen of cohort B consisted of one administration of nivolumab at 240 mg/body 2 weeks before chemotherapy, followed by the same treatments as cohort A. Results: Thirteen pts were enrolled to cohort A (n = 6) and B (n = 7). Characteristics were follows; median age: 62 (range: 34–75), PS 0/1: 9/4 pts, clinical stage I/II/III: 2/1/10 pts. One pt in cohort B was excluded from safety evaluation due to R2 resection, no DLTs were observed in 12 pts. The most frequent adverse events (≥ grade 3) were neutropenia in 6 pts during NAC, lung infection in 1, hyperglycemia in 1, pleural effusion in 1, infection (right neck) in 1, anemia in 1, abdominal pain in 1, and anatomic leakage in 1 during the postoperative period. Within 30 days post-operation, grade 2 adrenal insufficiency was observed in 1 pt of cohort B. No grade 4 adverse events or treatment-related deaths were seen. All pts received two courses of NAC + nivolumab and R0 resection was achieved in 12 pts (92.3%) without interruption of treatment. A pathological complete response was achieved in 2 pts (33.3%) in cohort A. Conclusions: Neoadjuvant CF + nivolumab with/without prior administration of nivolumab followed by surgery for locally advanced ESCC was well tolerated and showed promising efficacy. Clinical trial information: NCT03914443.

Sample size calculations for single-arm survival studies using transformations of the Kaplan-Meier estimator

In single-arm clinical trials with survival outcomes, the Kaplan-Meier estimator and its confidence interval are widely used to assess survival probability and median survival time. Since the asymptotic normality of the Kaplan-Meier estimator is a common result, the sample size calculation methods have not been studied in depth. An existing sample size calculation method is founded on the asymptotic normality of the Kaplan-Meier estimator using the log transformation. However, the small sample properties of the log transformed estimator are quite poor in small sample sizes (which are typical situations in single-arm trials), and the existing method uses an inappropriate standard normal approximation to calculate sample sizes. These issues can seriously influence the accuracy of results. In this paper, we propose alternative methods to determine sample sizes based on a valid standard normal approximation with several transformations that may give an accurate normal approximation even with small sample sizes. In numerical evaluations via simulations, some of the proposed methods provided more accurate results, and the empirical power of the proposed method with the arcsine square-root transformation tended to be closer to a prescribed power than the other transformations. These results were supported when methods were applied to data from three clinical trials.

Frequentist performances of Bayesian prediction intervals for random-effects meta-analysis

The prediction interval has been increasingly used in meta-analyses as a useful measure for assessing the magnitude of treatment effect and between-studies heterogeneity. In calculations of the prediction interval, although the Higgins-Thompson-Spiegelhalter method is used most often in practice, it might not have adequate coverage probability for the true treatment effect of a future study under realistic situations. An effective alternative candidate is the Bayesian prediction interval, which has also been widely used in general prediction problems. However, these prediction intervals are constructed based on the Bayesian philosophy, and their frequentist validities are only justified by large-sample approximations even if noninformative priors are adopted. There has been no certain evidence that evaluated their frequentist performances under realistic situations of meta-analyses. In this study, we conducted extensive simulation studies to assess the frequentist coverage performances of Bayesian prediction intervals with 11 noninformative prior distributions under general meta-analysis settings. Through these simulation studies, we found that frequentist coverage performances strongly depended on what prior distributions were adopted. In addition, when the number of studies was smaller than 10, there were no prior distributions that retained accurate frequentist coverage properties. We also illustrated these methods via applications to two real meta-analysis datasets. The resultant prediction intervals also differed according to the adopted prior distributions. Inaccurate prediction intervals may provide invalid evidence and misleading conclusions. Thus, if frequentist accuracy is required, Bayesian prediction intervals should be used cautiously in practice.

Recurrence of atrial fibrillation after catheter ablation is associated with major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events: insights from AF frontier ablation registry

Background

Recent observational studies have suggested that catheter ablation for atrial fibrillation (AF) is significantly associated with reduced risk for stroke, cardiovascular events and all-cause death. However, little is known whether late recurrence of AF after catheter ablation is associated with worse clinical outcomes.

Purpose

We aimed to clarify whether late recurrence of AF after catheter ablation is associated with major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCE).

Methods

We retrospectively investigated 2,737 participants (74.4% men, mean age 63.4±10.3 years, 62.7% paroxysmal AF) who received first catheter ablation for AF and completed follow-up more than 3 months after the procedure from AF Frontier Ablation Registry, a multicenter cohort study in Japan. We evaluated an association between late recurrence of AF after catheter ablation and first MACCE in cox-regression hazard models adjusted for known risk factors. MACCE were defined as stroke/transient ischemic attack (TIA), cardiovascular events or all-cause death. Late recurrence was defined as AF relapse more than 3 months after the procedure.

Results

During a mean follow-up period of 25.2 months, 2,070 patients (75.6%) were free from AF after catheter ablation and 122 patients (4.5%) had MACCE (ischemic stroke 18 [14.8%], hemorrhagic stroke 16 [13.1%], TIA 7 [5.7%], hospitalization for heart failure 19 [15.6%], acute coronary syndrome 19 [15.6%], hospitalization for other cardiovascular events 24 [20%] and all-cause death 19 [15.6%]). The MACCE occurred significantly more frequently in the recurrence group than in non-recurrence group (7.5% vs. 3.5%; hazard ratio [HR] 1.85; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.28–2.65; P=0.001) (Figure). Multivariate analysis revealed that baseline age (HR 1.05; 95% CI 1.03–1.08; P&lt;0.001), heart failure (HR 1.76; 95% CI 1.17–2.66; P=0.007), old myocardial infarction (HR 4.49; 95% CI 2.59–7.81; P&lt;0.001), non-ischemic cardiomyopathy (HR 2.56; 95% CI 1.47–4.46; P=0.001), left atrial diameter (HR 1.22 per 5-mm increase; 95% CI, 1.06–1.41; P=0.006) and recurrence of AF (HR 1.69; 95% CI 1.17–2.44; P=0.005) were independently associated with the incidence of MACCE after catheter ablation.

Conclusion

In the Japanese multicenter cohort of AF ablation, late recurrence of AF was independently associated with increased MACCE, suggesting the significance of sinus rhythm maintenance by catheter ablation.

Kaplan-Meier curves for MACCE

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding source: None

Influence of obesity and epicardial fat on the progression of electrical and structural remodeling in a canine obese rapid atrial pacing model

Background

Metabolic syndrome is a cluster of conditions including obesity, insulin resistance, hypertension, and abnormal cholesterol, which increases the cardiovascular risk. Metabolic syndrome or obesity has been reported to provide systemic inflammation and oxidative stress. Increased epicardial fat volume is a manifestation of obesity or metabolic syndrome. Those systemic and local conditions related to obesity or metabolic syndrome have been linking to the risk of atrial fibrillation (AF). The underlying mechanisms of obesity linking epicardial fat to AF progression have not been fully examined.

Purpose

To investigate the impact of obesity linked to epicardial fat on electrophysiologic and anatomical AF substrates.

Methods

Twenty dogs aged 3 years were divided into four groups (n=5 per each): normal diet for over 20 weeks (control group [median body weight: 12.0 kg]), rapid atrial pacing (RAP) for last 4–15 (median 8) weeks during a normal diet for the same period (RAP group [10.5 kg]), high-fat diet (HFD) maintained for over 20 weeks without RAP (MetS group [16.0 kg]), and RAP for last 4–12 (median 6) weeks during HFD maintained for 24 weeks (MetS-RAP group [17.0 kg]), respectively. Activation/voltage maps of the atria during sinus rhythm were created with Ensite NavX mapping system. The effective refractory period (ERP) at 5 left atrial (LA) and pulmonary vein (PV) sites (LA appendage [LAA], LA body, right and left superior PVs, and inferior PV), and AF inducibility by burst LAA pacing were determined. At study completion, hearts were excised for histopathological and gene expression analyses.

Results

The LA pressure was more significantly increased in MetS than the MetS-RAP, RAP, and control groups (22.5 [17–28.8] mmHg vs. 14.0 [10.5–16.3] mmHg, 10.5 [7.4–17.2] mmHg and 10.7 [9.6–13.5] mmHg, respectively, P&lt;0.05). The LA/PV ERP at a basic cycle length of 400 ms was shorter in the MetS-RAP and RAP than MetS and control groups (118±39 ms and 122±44 ms vs. 136±18 ms and 155±39 ms, respectively, P&lt;0.05). Short duration AF was more induced in the MetS and MetS-RAP than RAP and control groups (3 [0–5.5] sec and 2 [0.5–3.5] sec vs. 0 [0–4.5] sec and 0 [0–0] sec, P&lt;0.05). Histological examinations showed the fatty infiltration extending from epicardial fat increased more in the Mets and Mets-RAP than RAP and control groups (Figure). The Fibronectin 1 and collagen I/III mRNA levels increased more in the MetS-RAP and AF than MetS and control groups.

Conclusions

AF vulnerability was associated with increased LA pressures and fibrofatty infiltration from epicardial fat in the MetS group, and with fibrofatty infiltration from epicardial fat with subtle fibrosis in the MetS-RAP group. This suggested that fibrofatty infiltration and epicardial fat plays an important role in AF pathogenesis in obese patients.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding source: Public grant(s) – National budget only. Main funding source(s): Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (KAKENHI)

B-Type natriuretic peptide predicts major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events after catheter ablation of atrial fibrillation: insights from AF frontier ablation registry

Background

High plasma B-Type natriuretic peptide (BNP) level is associated with cardiac events or stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). However, it is still unknown whether BNP predicts worse clinical outcomes after catheter ablation ofAF.

Purpose

We aimed to see if plasma BNP level is associated with major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCE) after catheter ablation of AF.

Methods

We retrospectively analyzed 1,853 participants (73.1% men, mean age 63.3±10.3 years, 60.7% paroxysmal AF) who received first catheter ablation of AF with pre-ablation plasma BNP level measurement and completed follow-up more than 3 months after the procedure from AF Frontier Ablation Registry, a multicenter cohort study in Japan. We evaluated an association between plasma BNP level before catheter ablation and first MACCE in cox-regression hazard models adjusted for known risk factors. MACCE were defined as stroke/transient ischemic attack (TIA), cardiovascular events or all-cause death.

Results

The mean plasma BNP level was 120.2±3.7 pg/mL. During a mean follow-up period of 21.9 months, 57 patients (3.1%) suffered MACCE (ischemic stroke 8 [14.0%], hemorrhagic stroke 5 [8.8%], TIA 5 [8.8%], hospitalization for heart failure 11 [19.2%], acute coronary syndrome 9 [15.8%], hospitalization for other cardiovascular events 8 [14.0%] and all-cause death 11 [19.2%]). Plasma BNP level of patients with MACCE were significantly higher than those without MACCE (291.7±47.0 vs 114.7±3.42 pg/mL, P&lt;0.001). Multivariate analysis revealed that plasma BNP level (hazard ratio [HR] per 10 pg/mL increase 1.014; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.005–1.023; P=0.001), baseline age (HR 1.052; 95% CI 1.022–1.084; P=0.001), heart failure (HR 2.698; 95% CI 1.512–4.815; P=0.001), old myocardial infarction (HR 3.593; 95% CI 1.675–7.708; P=0.001) and non-ischemic cardiomyopathy (HR 2.676; 95% CI 1.337 - 5.355; P=0.005) were independently associated with MACCE. At receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis, plasma BNP level before catheter ablation ≥162.7 pg/mL was the best threshold to predict MACCE (area under the curve: 0.71). Kaplan-Meier curve analysis (Figure) showed that the cumulative incidence of MACCE was significantly higher in patients with a BNP ≥162.7 pg/mL than in those with a BNP below 162.7 pg/mL (HR 4.85; 95% CI 2.86–8.21; P&lt;0.001).

Conclusions

Elevation of plasma BNP level was independently related to the increased risk of MACCE after catheter ablation ofAF.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding source: Private company. Main funding source(s): Bristol-Meiers Squibb

Non-invasive and wearable thermometer for continuous monitoring of core body temperature under various convective conditions

We describe the design of a thermometer that can be worn during everyday activities for monitoring core body temperature (CBT) at the skin surface. This sensor estimates the CBT by measuring the heat flux from the body core based on a thermal conductive model. The heat flux is usually affected by the ambient convective conditions (e.g. air conditioner or posture), which in turn affects the model's accuracy. Thus, we analytically investigated heat conduction and designed a sensor interface that would be robust to convection changes. We performed an in vitro experiment and a preliminary in vivo experiment. The accuracy of CBT in an in vitro experiments was 0.1°C for convective values ranging from 0 to 1.2 m/s. The wearable thermometer has high potential as non-invasive CBT monitor.

Maternal Body Mass Index and Breastfeeding Non-Initiation and Cessation: A Quantitative Review of the Literature

This study aims to investigate which maternal body mass index (BMI) categories are associated with the non-initiation or cessation of breastfeeding (BF) based on a quantitative review of the literature. We searched Ovid MEDLINE and EBSCO CINAHL for peer-reviewed articles published between 1946 (MEDLINE) or 1981 (CINAHL), and 2019. Selected studies were either cross-sectional or cohort studies, of healthy mothers and infants, that reported nutrition method (exclusive/full or any) and period (initiation/duration/cessation) of breastfeeding according to maternal BMI levels. Pairwise meta-analyses of 57 studies demonstrated that the pooled odds risks (OR) of not initiating BF among overweight and obese mothers compared to normal weight mothers were significant across 29 (OR 1.33, 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.15–1.54, I² = 98%) and 26 studies (OR 1.61, 95% CI, 1.33–1.95, I² = 99%), respectively; the pooled risks for BF cessation were inconsistent in overweight and obese mothers with substantial heterogeneity. However, we found that overweight mothers (n = 10, hazard ratio (HR) 1.16, 95% CI, 1.07–1.25; I² = 23%) and obese mothers (n = 7, HR 1.45, 95% CI: 1.27–1.65; I² = 44%) were both associated with an increased risk of not continuing any BF and exclusive BF, respectively. Overweight and obese mothers may be at increased risk of not initiating or the cessation of breastfeeding.

Hepatic Arterial Infusion Chemotherapy versus Sorafenib in Patients with Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Prior to the approval of sorafenib, hepatic arterial infusion chemotherapy (HAIC) was offered to patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in East Asia, particularly Japan. According to the Japanese guidelines, HAIC is recommended as one of the treatment options in patients without extrahepatic metastasis (EHM).

METHODS

The present cohort study compared the use of HAIC and sorafenib on outcomes of patients with advanced HCC. Consecutive patients with advanced HCC who received HAIC or sorafenib as a first-line systemic therapy were enrolled from 10 Japanese institutions. The primary outcomes were overall survival (OS) in patients with macrovascular invasion (MVI), but without EHM, and OS in patients without both MVI and EHM.

RESULTS

Between 2009 and 2016, 2,006 patients were enrolled (541 HAIC patients, 1,465 sorafenib patients). After propensity score matching, the OS of patients with MVI but without EHM was significantly longer in the HAIC group compared with the sorafenib group (10.1 vs. 9.1 months for the HAIC and sorafenib groups, respectively; n = 170 for each group; hazard ratio [HR] 0.668; 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 0.475-0.935; p = 0.018). There was no significant difference in OS between patients without both MVI and EHM (12.2 vs. 15.4 months for the HAIC and sorafenib groups, respectively; n = 76 in each cohort after propensity score matching; HR 1.227; 95% CI 0.699-2.155; p = 0.475).

CONCLUSION

HAIC is a potential front-line treatment choice in a subpopulation of patients with advanced HCC with MVI but without EHM.