Kaposi's Sarcoma in HIV-infected patients in South Africa: Multicohort study in the antiretroviral therapy era

The incidence of Kaposi's Sarcoma (KS) is high in South Africa but the impact of antiretroviral therapy (ART) is not well defined. We examined incidence and survival of KS in HIV-infected patients enrolled in South African ART programs. We analyzed data of three ART programs: Khayelitsha township and Tygerberg Hospital programs in Cape Town and Themba Lethu program in Johannesburg. We included patients aged >16 years. ART was defined as a regimen of at least three drugs. We estimated incidence rates of KS for patients on ART and not on ART. We calculated Cox models adjusted for age, sex and time-updated CD4 cell counts and HIV-1 RNA. A total of 18,254 patients (median age 34.5 years, 64% female, median CD4 cell count at enrolment 105 cells/μL) were included. During 37,488 person-years follow-up 162 patients developed KS. The incidence was 1,682/100,000 person-years (95% confidence interval [CI] 1,406-2,011) among patients not receiving ART and 138/100,000 person-years (95% CI 102-187) among patients on ART. The adjusted hazard ratio comparing time on ART with time not on ART was 0.19 (95% CI 0.13-0.28). Low CD4 cell counts (time-updated) and male sex were also associated with KS. Estimated survival of KS patients at one year was 72.2% (95% CI 64.9-80.2) and higher in men than in women. The incidence of KS is substantially lower on ART than not on ART. Timely initiation of ART is essential to prevent KS and KS-associated morbidity and mortality in South Africa and other regions in Africa with a high burden of HIV.

Impact of choice of NRTI in first-line antiretroviral therapy: a cohort analysis of stavudine vs. tenofovir

OBJECTIVE

In April 2010, South Africa replaced stavudine with tenofovir in first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) despite tenofovir's higher cost. We examined treatment outcomes over 24 months amongst patients initiated on tenofovir-based vs. stavudine-based first-line regimens.

METHODS

Prospective cohort analysis of 3940 patients newly initiating either stavudine-based (April 2009 to March 2010) or tenofovir-based (April 2010 to March 2011) ART in Johannesburg, South Africa. Cox proportional hazards models and Fine and Gray's competing risk regression accounting for death were used to model mortality and loss to follow-up, respectively. Linear and log-binomial regression were used to evaluate associations with immunologic response and unsuppressed virus (≥ 400 copies/ml), respectively.

RESULTS

About 1878 patients prescribed tenofovir and 2062 patients prescribed stavudine were included. One hundred and sixty-six (8.8%) tenofovir and 244 (11.8%) stavudine patients died. Three hundred and fifty (18.6%) tenofovir and 379 (18.4%) stavudine patients were lost to follow-up over 24 months on ART. Adjusted regression models showed tenofovir and stavudine were comparable regarding death, loss to follow-up, immunologic response and virologic status.

CONCLUSIONS

We found no difference in mortality, loss to follow-up, immunological and virologic outcomes over the first 24-months on ART associated with tenofovir compared with stavudine.

Incidence and predictors of herpes zoster among antiretroviral therapy-naïve patients initiating HIV treatment in Johannesburg, South Africa

OBJECTIVES

To describe the characteristics of HIV-infected patients experiencing herpes zoster after antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation and to describe the incidence and predictors of a herpes zoster diagnosis.

METHODS

Adult patients initiating ART from April 2004 to September 2011 at the Themba Lethu Clinic in Johannesburg, South Africa were included. Patients were followed from ART initiation until the date of first herpes zoster diagnosis, or death, transfer, loss to follow-up, or dataset closure. Herpes zoster is described using incidence rates (IR) and predictors of herpes zoster are presented as subdistribution hazard ratios (sHR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI).

RESULTS

Fifteen thousand and twenty-five patients were included; 62% were female, the median age was 36.6 years, and the median baseline CD4 count was 98 cells/mm(3). Three hundred and forty patients (2.3%) experienced herpes zoster in a median of 26.1 weeks after ART initiation. Most (71.5%) occurred within 1 year of initiation, for a 1-year IR of 18.1/1000 person-years. In an adjusted model, patients with low CD4 counts (<50 vs. ≥200 cells/mm(3); sHR: 1.71, 95% CI: 1.21-2.47) and with a prior episode of herpes zoster (sHR: 1.53, 95% CI: 0.97-2.28) were at increased risk of incident herpes zoster.

CONCLUSIONS

While only 2% of patients were diagnosed with herpes zoster in this cohort, patients with low CD4 counts and those with prior episodes of herpes zoster were at higher risk for a herpes zoster diagnosis.

Poor CD4 recovery and risk of subsequent progression to AIDS or death despite viral suppression in a South African cohort

INTRODUCTION

The prognostic role of CD4 response in the first six months of treatment in patients achieving early viral suppression during HIV treatment is unclear.

METHODS

This was a cohort study of HIV-positive adults initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) between April 2004 and August 2007 who achieved viral suppression (<400 copies/ml) by six months on treatment in South Africa. Immunological response at six months was defined as: (1) absolute CD4 reached (<200 vs. ≥ 200 cells/ml); (2) absolute CD4 reached (0-49, 50-200 and ≥ 200 cells/ml); and (3) CD4 increase from ART initiation (<0, 0-49, 50-199 and ≥ 200 cells/ml). We used Cox regression models to determine the relationship between each definition and both new AIDS-defining condition and death.

RESULTS

A total of 4129 patients were eligible for analysis; 212 (5.1%) of those patients experienced a new AIDS-defining condition and 154 (3.7%) died. Smaller CD4 gains by six months were associated with higher hazards of progression to AIDS (CD4<50 vs. ≥ 200 cells/ml; adjusted hazard ratio (aHR): 2.6; 95% CI: 1.2-2.1) and death (aHR: 2.8; 95% CI: 1.4-5.7). A decrease in CD4 count since ART initiation through six months (aHR: 2.4; 95% CI: 1.2-4.9) and smaller CD4 count gains (0-49 cells/ml; aHR: 2.0; 95% CI: 1.2-3.4 and 50-199 cells/ml; aHR: 1.5; 95% CI: 0.9-2.2) were also associated with greater risk of progression to AIDS compared to an increase of ≥ 200 cells/ml. When we examined mortality differences by gender among this virally suppressed cohort, a higher proportion of males died compared to females, 4.7% versus 3.2%, p=0.01. However, in multivariable analysis, we did not observe any significant differences: aHR: 1.39; 95% CI: 0.98-1.95.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients on ART with poor CD4 recovery early in treatment are at greater risk of progression to new AIDS diagnosis or death despite viral suppression. Approaches to managing this sub-group of patients need further investigation.

Increases in regimen durability associated with the introduction of tenofovir at a large public-sector clinic in Johannesburg, South Africa

INTRODUCTION

In April 2010, tenofovir replaced stavudine in public-sector first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) in South Africa. The association of tenofovir with fewer side effects and toxicities compared to stavudine could translate to increased durability of tenofovir-based regimens. We evaluated changes over time in regimen durability at the Themba Lethu Clinic, Johannesburg, South Africa.

METHODS

This was a cohort analysis of treatment-naïve, non-pregnant adult patients initiated on ART between April 2004 and December 2011. First-line ART regimens before April 2010 consisted of stavudine or zidovudine with lamivudine and either efavirenz or nevirapine. Tenofovir was substituted for stavudine after April 2010. We evaluated the frequency and type of single-drug substitutions (excluding switches to second-line therapy). Cox models were used to evaluate the association of ART initiation year and antiretroviral drug type with single-drug substitutions in the first 12 months on treatment.

RESULTS

One thousand nine hundred and sixty-four (10%) substitutions occurred amongst 19,699 patients. Excluding 2004 (year of treatment roll-out), before 2010 one-year single-drug substitutions ranged from 10.0 to 13.1%. In 2011, well after integration of tenofovir, substitutions decreased to 5.6%. Single-drug substitution was lowest amongst patients on tenofovir (5.1%) versus zidovudine (11.3%), 30 mg stavudine (10.5%) or 40 mg stavudine (14.4%). Adjusted Cox models showed that patients initiating treatment between 2005 and 2010 (vs. 2011) had a twofold increased hazard of single-drug substitution, while those on zidovudine or stavudine had a two to threefold increase in single-drug substitution versus tenofovir patients in the first 12 months on ART.

CONCLUSIONS

The decline in single-drug substitutions is associated with the introduction of tenofovir. Tenofovir use could improve regimen durability and treatment outcomes in resource-limited settings.

The impact of choice of NNRTI on short-term treatment outcomes among HIV-infected patients prescribed tenofovir and lamivudine in Johannesburg, South Africa

Introduction

Recent WHO guidelines for resource-limited settings recommend tenofovir in first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) yet there are suggestions that patients receiving nevirapine with tenofovir have worse outcomes than those receiving efavirenz. We sought to compare outcomes among those taking nevirapine vs. efavirenz with tenofovir and lamivudine.

Methods

We analyzed data on ART naïve, non-pregnant patients, ≥18 years old without tuberculosis co-infection, initiating tenofovir with lamivudine and either nevirapine or efavirenz between April 1, 2010 and July 31, 2011 (when South Africa’s public-sector use of tenofovir began) at Themba Lethu Clinic in South Africa. We measured virologic suppression (viral load <400 copies/ml), virologic failure (2 consecutive viral loads >1000 copies/ml), and attrition (death/loss to follow-up) all at 12 months after ART initiation. Modified Poisson regression with robust error estimation was used to estimate risk ratios (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for predictors of each outcome.

Results

2,254 patients were prescribed efavirenz, 131 nevirapine. Patients were followed a median (range) of 12.0 (0.1–12.0) person-months. 62.2% were female and median (IQR) age was 37.7 years (31.5–44.1). Patients prescribed efavirenz had similar initiating CD4 counts (median 132 for both regimens) but were somewhat more likely to be WHO Stage III or IV (39.6% vs. 33.6%) than those prescribed nevirapine. No difference in attrition was found (aRR: 0.83; 95% CI: 0.49–1.41). Among patients with ≥1 viral load within 1 year on ART, those prescribed nevirapine were as likely to reach virologic suppression (aRR: 0.97; 95% CI: 0.88–1.07) but more likely to experience virologic failure (aRR: 1.84; 95% CI: 1.02–3.31) than those prescribed efavirenz.

Conclusions

Our results support the notion that, among patients prescribed tenofovir and lamivudine, virologic failure is more common among those taking nevirapine than among those taking efavirenz. Longer-term follow up and larger studies will be needed to confirm this finding.

Impact of nutritional supplementation on immune response, body mass index and bioelectrical impedance in HIV-positive patients starting antiretroviral therapy

Background

Challenges to HIV care in resource limited settings (RLS) include malnutrition. Limited evidence supports the benefit of nutritional supplementation when starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) in RLS.

Methods

Randomized controlled pilot study. HIV-positive ART-naive adults with self-reported weight loss were randomized to receive ART plus FutureLife porridge® nutritional supplement (NS) (388 kcal/day) or ART alone (Controls) for 6 months. Patients returned for monthly assessments and blood was drawn at enrolment and 6 months on ART. Differences in body composition, biochemical and laboratory parameters were estimated at 6 months on treatment.

Results

Of the 36 randomized patients, 26 completed the 6 month follow-up (11 NS vs 15 Controls). At enrolment, groups were similar in terms of age, gender, body mass index (BMI) and bioelectrical impedance. NS patients had a lower median CD4 count (60 cells/mm³ [IQR 12–105 vs 107 cells/mm³ [IQR 63–165]; p = 0.149) and hemoglobin (10.3 g/dL [IQR 9.0-11.3] vs 13.1 g/dL [IQR 11.1-14.7]; p = 0.001).

At 6 months, NS patients increased their median CD4 count by 151 cells/mm³ [IQR 120–174) vs 77 cells/mm³ [IQR 33–145] in the Controls. NS patients had higher mean percentage change in body weight (12.7% vs 4.9%; p = 0.047), BMI (7.8% vs 5.5%; p = 0.007), absolute CD4 count (83.0% vs 46.4%, p = 0.002) and hemoglobin (9.5% vs 1.0%; p = 0.026). Patients in the NS arm had a higher mean percentage fat-free mass (16.7% vs −3.5%, p = 0.036), total body water (13.0% vs −1.9%, p = 0.026), intracellular water (16.1% vs −4.1%, p = 0.010) and basal metabolic rate (5.3% vs −0.2%, p = 0.014) compared to Controls. Patients in the NS arm also showed an improvement in physical activity at 6 months post-ART initiation compared to Controls (p = 0.037).

Conclusion

Preliminary results are encouraging and suggest that NS taken concurrently with ART can promote weight gain, improve immune response and improve physical activity in HIV-positive patients that present at ART initiation with weight loss.

Kaposi sarcoma-associated herpes virus and response to antiretroviral therapy: a prospective study of HIV-infected adults

BACKGROUND

The possible impact of coinfection with the Kaposi sarcoma-associated herpes virus (KSHV) on the response to antiretroviral therapy (ART) is unknown. Prospective studies are rare, particularly in Africa.

METHODS

We enrolled a prospective cohort of HIV-infected adults initiating ART in Johannesburg, South Africa. The subjects were defined as seropositive to KSHV if they were reactive to either KSHV lytic K8.1 or latent Orf73 antigen or to both. The subjects were followed from ART initiation until 18 months of treatment. HIV viral load and CD4 counts were tested 6 monthly. Linear generalized estimating and log-binomial regression models were used to estimate the effect of KSHV infection on immunologic recovery and response and HIV viral load suppression within 18 months after ART initiation.

RESULTS

Three hundred eighty-five subjects initiating ART from November 2008 to March 2009 were considered to be eligible including 184 (48%) KSHV+. The KSHV+ group was similar to the KSHV- in terms of age, gender, initiating CD4 count, body mass index, tuberculosis, and hemoglobin levels. The KSHV+ group gained a similar number of cells at 6 [difference of 10 cells per cubic millimeter, 95% confidence interval (CI): -11 to 31], 12 (3 cells per cubic millimeter, 95% CI: -19 to 25), and 18 months (24 cells per cubic millimeter, 95% CI: -13 to 61) compared with that gained by the KSHV- group. Adjusted relative risk of failure to suppress viral load to <400 copies per milliliter (1.03; 95% CI: 0.90 to 1.17) were similar for KSHV+ and KSHV- by 6 months on treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

In a population with a high KSHV prevalence, HIV-positive adults coinfected with KSHV achieved similar immunologic and virologic responses to ART early after treatment initiation compared with those with KSHV-.

Treatment response and mortality among patients starting antiretroviral therapy with and without Kaposi sarcoma: a cohort study

Background

Improved survival among HIV-infected individuals on antiretroviral therapy (ART) has focused attention on AIDS-related cancers including Kaposi sarcoma (KS). However, the effect of KS on response to ART is not well-described in Southern Africa. We assessed the effect of KS on survival and immunologic and virologic treatment responses at 6- and 12-months after initiation of ART.

Methods

We analyzed prospectively collected data from a cohort of HIV-infected adults initiating ART in South Africa. Differences in mortality between those with and without KS at ART initiation were estimated with Cox proportional hazard models. Log-binomial models were used to assess differences in CD4 count response and HIV virologic suppression within a year of initiating treatment.

Results

Between January 2001–January 2008, 13,847 HIV-infected adults initiated ART at the study clinics. Those with KS at ART initiation (n = 247, 2%) were similar to those without KS (n = 13600,98%) with respect to age (35 vs. 35yrs), presenting CD4 count (74 vs. 85cells/mm³) and proportion on TB treatment (37% vs. 30%). In models adjusted for sex, baseline CD4 count, age, treatment site, tuberculosis and year of ART initiation, KS patients were over three times more likely to have died at any time after ART initiation (hazard ratio[HR]: 3.62; 95% CI: 2.71–4.84) than those without KS. The increased risk was highest within the first year on ART (HR: 4.05; 95% CI: 2.95–5.55) and attenuated thereafter (HR: 2.30; 95% CI: 1.08–4.89). Those with KS also gained, on average, 29 fewer CD4 cells (95% CI: 7–52cells/mm³) and were less likely to increase their CD4 count by 50 cells from baseline (RR: 1.43; 95% CI: 0.99–2.06) within the first 6-months of treatment.

Conclusions

HIV-infected adults presenting with KS have increased risk of mortality even after initiation of ART with the greatest risk in the first year. Among those who survive the first year on therapy, subjects with KS demonstrated a poorer immunologic response to ART than those without KS.

Treatment outcomes of HIV-infected adolescents attending public-sector HIV clinics across Gauteng and Mpumalanga, South Africa

There is little evidence comparing treatment outcomes between adolescents and other age groups, particularly in resource-limited settings. A retrospective analysis of data from seven HIV clinics across urban Gauteng (n=5) and rural Mpumalanga (n=2), South Africa was conducted. The analysis compared HIV-positive antiretroviral treatment (ART)-naive young adolescents (10-14 years), older adolescents (15-19), and young adults (20-24 years) to adults (≥25 years) initiated onto standard first-line ART between April 2004 and August 2010. Log-binomial regression was used to estimate relative risk (RR) of failure to suppress viral load (≥400 copies/ml) or failure to achieve an adequate CD4 response at 6 or 12 months. The effect of age group on virological failure, mortality, and loss to follow-up (LTFU; ≥90 days since scheduled visit date) was estimated using Cox proportional hazards models. Of 42,427 patients initiating ART, 310 (0.7%) were young adolescents, 342 (0.8%) were older adolescents, and 1599 (3.8%) were young adults. Adolescents were similar to adults in terms of proportion male, baseline CD4 count, hemoglobin, and TB. Compared to adults, both older adolescents (6 months RR 1.75 95% CI 1.25-2.47) and young adults (6 months RR 1.33 95% CI 1.10-1.60 and 12 months RR 1.64 95% CI 1.23-2.19) were more likely to have an unsuppressed viral load and were more likely to fail virologically (HR 2.90 95% CI 1.74-4.86; HR 2.94 95% CI 1.63-5.31). Among those that died or were LTFU, the median time from ART initiation until death or LTFU was 4.7 months (IQR 1.5-13.2) and 10.9 months (IQR 5.0-22.7), respectively. There was no difference in risk of mortality by age category, compared to adults. Young adolescents were less likely to be LTFU at any time period after ART initiation (HR 0.43 95% CI 0.26-0.69) whereas older adolescents and young adults were more likely to be LTFU after ART initiation (HR 1.78 95% CI 1.34-2.36; HR 1.63 95% CI 1.41-1.89) compared to adults. HIV-infected adolescents and young adults between 15 and 24 years have poorer ART treatment outcomes in terms of virological response, LTFU, and virological failure than adults receiving ART. Interventions are needed to help improve outcomes and retention in care in this unique population.

Increased risk of mortality and loss to follow-up among HIV-positive patients with oropharyngeal candidiasis and malnutrition before antiretroviral therapy initiation: a retrospective analysis from a large urban cohort in Johannesburg, South Africa

OBJECTIVE

We investigated the effect of oropharyngeal candidiasis (OC) and body mass index (BMI) before antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation on treatment outcomes of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive patients.

STUDY DESIGN

Treatment outcomes included failure to increase CD4 count by ≥50 or ≥100 cells/μL or failure to suppress viral load (<400 copies/mL) at 6 or 12 months in addition to loss to follow-up (LTFU) and mortality by 12 months. Risk and hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated with the use of log-binomial regression and Cox proportional hazards models, respectively.

RESULTS

Baseline CD4 <100 cells/μL, low BMI (<18.5 kg/m(2)), low hemoglobin, and elevated aspartate transaminase were associated with OC at ART initiation. Patients with low BMI with and without, respectively, OC were at risk of mortality (HR 2.42, 95% CI 1.88-3.12; HR 1.87, 95% CI 1.54-2.28) and LTFU (HR 1.36, 95% CI 1.02-1.82; HR 1.55, 95% CI 1.30-1.85).

CONCLUSIONS

Low BMI (with/without OC) at ART initiation was associated with poor treatment outcomes. Conversely, normal BMI with OC was associated with adequate CD4 response and reduced LTFU compared with without OC.

The feasibility of using screening criteria to reduce clinic visits for stable patients on antiretroviral therapy in South Africa

OBJECTIVES

South African HIV care providers are exploring ways to reduce the intensity of patient visits while maintaining high quality of care. We used routinely collected data to model whether a simple screening tool could identify stable patients who would not need to see a doctor during a scheduled medical visit.

DESIGN

We identified stable and nonstable visits from January 2007 to September 2011 at a large HIV clinic in Johannesburg, SA. Stable medical visits were defined as having all of the following: stable CD4 count, undetectable viral load, stable weight, not pregnant, no comorbidity, no regimen change within three months, and normal laboratory results for hemoglobin, alanine aminotransferase, and creatinine clearance.

METHODS

We assessed the sensitivity and specificity of nonstable visits at predicting indicators of disease progression or needing additional care: (1) ART regimen change and (2) follow-up visits in <2 and <4 weeks from previous visit.

RESULTS

Stable visits had a sensitivity of 88.9% (95% confidence interval: 88.2 to 89.7) and a specificity of 44.8% (44.5 to 44.1) at predicting ART therapy changes, and a sensitivity of 72.6% (71.8 to 73.4) and specificity of 45.1% (44.8 to 45.4) for predicting a follow-up visit interval of <2 weeks and similar results for predicting a follow-up visit interval of <4 weeks.

CONCLUSIONS

Our retrospective analysis suggests an approach to potentially reduce the number of medical visits while missing few visits in which changes in regimen or additional care would be needed. Evaluation of our criteria in a primary care setting is needed to determine whether they could safely reduce visits.

Initiating antiretroviral therapy when presenting with higher CD4 cell counts results in reduced loss to follow-up in a resource-limited setting

OBJECTIVE

In August 2011, South Africa expanded its adult antiretroviral therapy (ART) guidelines to allow treatment initiation at CD4 cell values 350 cells/μl or less. Mortality and morbidity are known to be reduced when initiating at higher CD4 levels; we explored the impact on patient loss to follow-up.

DESIGN

An observational cohort study.

METHODS

We analyzed routine data of 1430 adult patients initiating ART from April to December 2010 from a Johannesburg primary healthcare clinic offering ART initiation at CD4 cell count 350 cells/μl or less since 2010. We compared loss to follow-up (≥3 months late for the last scheduled visit), death, and incident tuberculosis within 1 year of ART initiation for those initiating at CD4 cell values 200 or less versus 201-350 cells/μl.

RESULTS

: Half (52.0%) of patients presented in the lower CD4 cell group [≤200 cells/μl, median: 105 cells/μl, interquartile range (IQR): 55-154] and initiated ART, and 48.0% in the higher group (CD4 cell count 201-350 cells/μl, median: 268 cells/μl, IQR: 239-307). The proportion of women and pregnant women was greater in the high CD4 cell group; the lower CD4 cell group included more patients with prevalent tuberculosis. Among men and nonpregnant women, initiating at 201-350 cells/μl was associated with 26-42% reduced loss to follow-up compared to those initiating 200 cells/μl or less. We found no CD4 cell effect among pregnant women. Risk of mortality [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 0.34, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.13-0.84] and incident tuberculosis (aHR 0.44, 95% CI 0.23-0.85) was lower among the higher CD4 cell group.

CONCLUSION

This is one of the first studies from a routine clinical setting to demonstrate South Africa's 2011 expansion of ART treatment guidelines can be enacted without increasing program attrition.

The interplay between CD4 cell count, viral load suppression and duration of antiretroviral therapy on mortality in a resource-limited setting

OBJECTIVE

To examine the interaction between CD4 cell count, viral load suppression and duration of antiretroviral therapy (ART) on mortality.

METHODS

Cohort analysis of HIV-infected patients initiating ART between April 2004 and June 2011 at a large public sector clinic in Johannesburg, South Africa. A log-linear model with Poisson distribution was used to estimate risk of death as a function of the interaction between current CD4 count, current viral load suppression and duration on ART in 12-month intervals. We calculated predicted mortality using estimated coefficients within combinations of predictors.

RESULTS

Amongst 14 932 ART patients, 1985 (13.3%) died. Current CD4 was the strongest predictor of death (<50 vs. ≥550 cells/mm(3) - RR: 46.3; 95% CI: 26.8-80), while unsuppressed current viral load vs. suppressed (RR: 1.8; 95% CI: 1.5-2.1) and short duration of ART (0-11.9 vs. 66-71.9 months RR: 1.7; 95% CI: 1.2-2.3) also predicted death. Our interaction model showed that mortality was highest in the first 12 months on treatment across all CD4 and viral load strata. As current CD4 and duration on ART increased and viral load suppression occurred, mortality dropped. CD4 count was the strongest predictor of death. The relative effect of current CD4 count varied strongly by viral load and duration of ART (from 1.3 to 55). Lack of suppression increased the risk of mortality upwards of six-fold depending on time on ART and current CD4.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings show that while CD4 count is the strongest predictor of death, the effect is modified by viral load and the duration of ART. Assessment of risk should take into account all three factors.

Loss to follow-up before and after delivery among women testing HIV positive during pregnancy in Johannesburg, South Africa

OBJECTIVE

HIV-positive pregnant women are at heightened risk of becoming lost to follow-up (LTFU) from HIV care. We examined LTFU before and after delivery among pregnant women newly diagnosed with HIV.

METHODS

Observational cohort study of all pregnant women ≥18 years (N = 300) testing HIV positive for the first time at their first ANC visit between January and June 2010, at a primary healthcare clinic in Johannesburg, South Africa. Women (n = 27) whose delivery date could not be determined were excluded.

RESULTS

Median (IQR) gestation at HIV testing was 26 weeks (21-30). Ninety-eight per cent received AZT prophylaxis, usually started at the first ANC visit. Of 139 (51.3%) patients who were ART eligible, 66.9% (95% CI 58.8-74.3%) initiated ART prior to delivery; median (IQR) ART duration pre-delivery was 9.5 weeks (5.1-14.2). Among ART-eligible patients, 40.5% (32.3-49.0%) were cumulatively retained through 6 months on ART. Of those ART-ineligible patients at HIV testing, only 22.6% (95% CI 15.9-30.6%) completed CD4 staging and returned for a repeat CD4 test after delivery. LTFU (≥1 month late for last scheduled visit) before delivery was 20.5% (95% CI 16.0-25.6%) and, among those still in care, 47.9% (95% CI 41.2-54.6%) within 6 months after delivery. Overall, 57.5% (95% CI 51.6-63.3%) were lost between HIV testing and 6 months post-delivery.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings highlight the challenge of continuity of care among HIV-positive pregnant women attending antenatal services, particularly those ineligible for ART.

Patient retention from HIV diagnosis through one year on antiretroviral therapy at a primary health care clinic in Johannesburg, South Africa

OBJECTIVE

To compare patient retention at 3 stages of pre-antiretroviral (ART) care and 2 stages of post-ART care to identify when greatest attrition occurs.

DESIGN

An observational cohort study.

METHODS

We reviewed files of all adult nonpregnant individuals testing HIV-positive January 1-June 30, 2010, at a primary health clinic in Johannesburg, South Africa (N = 842). We classified retention in pre-ART stage 1 (HIV diagnosis to CD4 results notification in ≤3 months), pre-ART stage 2 (initially ineligible for ART with repeat CD4 test ≤1 year of prior CD4), pre-ART stage 3 (initiating ART ≤3 months after first eligible CD4 result), and at 0-6 and 6-12 months post-ART.

RESULTS

Retention among all patients during pre-ART stage 1 was 69.8% [95% confidence interval (CI): 66.7% to 72.9%]. For patients initially ART ineligible (n = 221), 57.4% (95% CI: 49.5% to 65.0%) returned for a repeat CD4 during pre-ART stage 2. Among those who were ART eligible (n = 589), 73.5% (95% CI: 69.0% to 77.6%) were retained during pre-ART stage 3. Retention increased with time on ART, from 80.2% (95% CI: 75.3% to 84.5%) at 6 months to 95.3% (95% CI: 91.7% to 97.6%) between 6 and 12 months. Cumulative retention from diagnosis to 12 months on ART was 36.9% (95% CI: 33.0% to 41.1%) for those ART eligible and 43.0% (95% CI: 36.4% to 49.8%) from diagnosis to repeat CD4 testing within one year among those ART ineligible.

CONCLUSIONS

Patient attrition in the first year after HIV diagnosis was greatest before ART initiation: more than 25% at each of 3 pre-ART stages. As countries expand HIV testing and ART programs, success will depend on linkage to care, especially before ART eligibility and initiation.

Gender differences in mortality and CD4 count response among virally suppressed HIV-positive patients

BACKGROUND

Treatment outcomes for antiretroviral therapy (ART) patients may vary by gender, but estimates from current evidence may be confounded by disease stage and adherence. We investigated the gender differences in treatment response among HIV-positive patients virally suppressed within 6 months of treatment initiation.

METHODS

We analyzed data from 7,354 patients initiating ART between April 2004 and April 2010 at Themba Lethu Clinic, a large urban public sector treatment facility in South Africa. We estimated the relations among gender, mortality, and mean CD4 response in HIV-infected adults virally suppressed within 6 months of treatment initiation and used inverse probability of treatment weights to correct estimates for loss to follow-up.

RESULTS

Male patients had a 20% greater risk of death at both 24 months and 36 months of follow-up compared to females. Older patients and those with a low hemoglobin level or low body mass index (BMI) were at increased risk of mortality throughout follow-up. Men gained fewer CD4 cells after treatment initiation than did women. The mean differences in CD4 count gains made by women and men between baseline and 12, 24, and 36 months were 28.2 cells/mm(3) (95% confidence interval [CI] 22.2-34.3), 60.8 cells/mm(3) (95% CI 71.1-50.5 cells/mm(3)), and 83.0 cells/mm(3) (95% CI 97.1-68.8 cells/mm(3)), respectively. Additionally, patients with a current detectable viral load (>400 copies/mL) and older patients had a lower mean CD4 increase at the same time points.

CONCLUSIONS

In this initially virally suppressed population, women showed consistently better immune response to treatment than did men. Promoting earlier uptake of HIV treatment among men may improve their immunologic outcomes.

Risk factors for discordant immune response among HIV-infected patients initiating antiretroviral therapy: A retrospective cohort study

Background. The therapeutic goal of antiretroviral therapy (ART) is sustained immune recovery and viral suppression. However, some patients experience poor CD4 cell count responses despite achieving viral suppression. Such discordant immune responses have been associated with poor clinical outcomes. Objective. We aimed to determine the prevalence of discordant immune response and explore associated factors in a retrospective cohort of patients attending 2 large public sector clinics, during the 6 months following ART initiation. Methods. Data were analysed from 810 HIV-infected adults initiated on first-line ART at 2 clinics in Johannesburg, between 1 November 2008 and 31 December 2009. Multivariate logistic regression models were used to estimate adjusted odds ratios (AORs) to determine associations between discordant immune response and clinical and demographic factors. Results. At ART initiation, 65% (n=592) of participants were female, with a mean age of 38.5 years. Median baseline CD4 cell count was 155 cells/mm3, 70% (n=645) of patients had a haemoglobin level >11 g/dl and 88% (n=803) were initiated on stavudine-lamivudine-efavirenz/nevirapine (D4T-3TC-EFV/NVP). Six months after ART initiation, 24% (n=220) of patients had a discordant immune response and 7% (n=67) a discordant virological response. On multivariate analysis, baseline CD cell count ≥200 cells/mm3 (AOR 3.02; 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.08 - 4.38; p

Rates and predictors of failure of first-line antiretroviral therapy and switch to second-line ART in South Africa

OBJECTIVES

To measure rates and predictors of virologic failure and switch to second-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) in South Africa.

DESIGN

: Observational cohort study.

METHODS

We included ART-naive adult patients initiated on public sector ART (January 2000 to July 2008) at 5 sites in South Africa who completed ≥6 months of follow-up. We estimated cumulative risk of virologic failure (viral load ≥400 copies/mL with confirmation above varying thresholds) and switching to second-line ART.

RESULTS

Nineteen thousand six hundred forty-five patients (29,935 person-years) had a median of 1.3 years of study follow-up (1.8 years on ART) and a median CD4 count of 93 (IQR: 39-155) cells per microliter at ART initiation. About 9.9% (4.5 per 100 person-years) failed ART in median 16 (IQR: 12-23) months since ART initiation, with median 2.7 months (IQR: 1.6-4.7) months between first elevated and confirmatory viral loads. By survival analysis, using a confirmatory threshold of 400 copies per milliliter, 16.9% [95% confidence interval (CI): 15.4% to 18.6%] failed by 5 years on ART, but only 7.8% (95% CI: 6.6% to 9.3%) using a threshold of 10,000. CD4 <25 versus 100-199 (adjusted HR: 1.60; 95% CI: 1.37 to 1.87), ART initiation viral load ≥1,000,000 versus <10,000, (1.32; 0.91 to 1.93), and 2+ gaps in care versus 0 (95% CI: 7.25; 4.95 to 10.6) were predictive of failure. Overall, 10.1% (95% CI: 9.0% to 11.4%) switched to second-line by 5 years on ART. Lower CD4 at failure and higher rate of CD4 decline were predictive of switch (decline 100% to 51% versus 25% to -25%, adjusted HR: 1.96; 95% CI: 1.35 to 2.85).

CONCLUSIONS

In resource-limited settings with viral load monitoring, virologic failure rates are highly sensitive to thresholds for confirmation. Despite clear guidelines there is considerable variability in switching failing patients, partially in response to immunologic status and postfailure evolution.

Antiretroviral therapy initiation during tuberculosis treatment and HIV-RNA and CD4 T-lymphocyte responses

SETTING

A large human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) clinic in South Africa.

OBJECTIVE

To examine the effect of initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) on CD4 and viral response at different time periods during anti-tuberculosis treatment (<14 days, 15-60 days, or ≥60 days) using prospectively collected clinical data.

METHODS

Cohort data analysis for 1499 patients with tuberculosis (TB) and HIV co-infection classified according to timing of ART after the initiation of anti-tuberculosis treatment.

RESULTS

In adjusted modified Poisson regression models, CD4 and viral responses showed no significant differences according to timing of ART initiation (failure to increase CD4 by 6 months, <14 days vs. >60 days: RR 1.02, 95%CI 0.85-1.22; 15-60 days vs. >60 days: RR 1.00, 95%CI 0.86-1.15; failure to suppress virus by 6 months, <14 days vs. >60 days: RR 0.98, 95%CI 0.59-1.63; 15-60 days vs. >60 days: RR 0.96, 95%CI 0.66-1.41 and viral rebound at 12 months, 14 days vs. >60 days: RR 1.43, 95%CI 0.50-4.12; 15-60 days vs. >60 days: RR 1.14, 95%CI 0.39-3.34). Similar estimates were found in analysis restricted to patients with severe immunosuppression.

CONCLUSION

Concerns over the overlapping impact of anti-tuberculosis treatment with ART on ART response should not be a reason for delaying ART in patients with HIV-associated TB.

Cohort profile: the Themba Lethu Clinical Cohort, Johannesburg, South Africa

The Themba Lethu Clinical Cohort was established in 2004 to allow large patient-level analyses from a single HIV treatment site to evaluate National Treatment Guidelines, answer questions of national and international policy relevance and to combine an economic and epidemiologic focus on HIV research. The current objectives of the Themba Lethu Clinical Cohort analyses are to: (i) provide cohort-level information on the outcomes of HIV treatment; (ii) evaluate aspects of HIV care and treatment that have policy relevance; (iii) evaluate the cost and cost-effectiveness of different approaches to HIV care and treatment; and (iv) provide a platform for studies on improving HIV care and treatment. Since 2004, Themba Lethu Clinic has enrolled approximately 30,000 HIV-positive patients into its HIV care and treatment programme, over 21,000 of whom have received anti-retroviral therapy since being enrolled. Patients on treatment are typically seen at least every 3 months with laboratory monitoring every 6 months to 1 year. The data collected include demographics, clinical visit data, laboratory data, medication history and clinical diagnoses. Requests for collaborations on analyses can be submitted to our data centre.