Plague epizootic cycles in Central Asia

Infection thresholds, widely used in disease epidemiology, may operate on host abundance and, if present, on vector abundance. For wildlife populations, host and vector abundances often vary greatly across years and consequently the threshold may be crossed regularly, both up- and downward. Moreover, vector and host abundances may be interdependent, which may affect the infection dynamics. Theory predicts that if the relevant abundance, or combination of abundances, is above the threshold, then the infection is able to spread; if not, it is bound to fade out. In practice, though, the observed level of infection may depend more on past than on current abundances. Here, we study the temporal dynamics of plague (Yersinia pestis infection), its vector (flea) and its host (great gerbil) in the PreBalkhash region in Kazakhstan. We describe how host and vector abundances interact over time and how this interaction drives the dynamics of the system around the infection threshold, consequently affecting the proportion of plague-infected sectors. We also explore the importance of the interplay between biological and detectability delays in generating the observed dynamics.

Effects of height and load weight on shoulder muscle work during overhead lifting task

Few musculoskeletal models are available to assess shoulder deeper muscle demand during overhead lifting tasks. Our objective was to implement a musculoskeletal model to assess the effect of lifting height and load on shoulder muscle work. A musculoskeletal model scaled from 15 male subjects was used to calculate shoulder muscle work during six lifting tasks. Boxes containing three different loads (6, 12 and 18 kg) were lifted by the subjects from the waist to shoulder or eye level. After optimisation of the maximal isometric force of the model's muscles, the bio-fidelity of the model was improved by 19%. The latter was able to reproduce the subjects' lifting movements. Mechanical work of the rotator cuff muscles, upper trapezius and anterior deltoid was increased with lifting load and height augmentation. In conclusion, the use of a musculoskeletal model validated by electromyography enabled to evaluate the muscle demand of deep muscles during lifting tasks.

Mycobacterium microti tuberculosis in its maintenance host, the field vole (Microtus agrestis): characterization of the disease and possible routes of transmission

The field vole (Microtus agrestis) is a known maintenance host of Mycobacterium microti. Previous studies have shown that infected animals develop tuberculosis. However, the disease is also known in cats and is sporadically reported from humans and other mammalian species. We examined trapped field voles from an endemic area, using a range of diagnostic approaches. These confirmed that a combination of gross and histological examination with culture is most appropriate to identify the true prevalence of the disease, which was shown to be more than 13% at times when older animals that have previously been shown to be more likely to develop the disease dominate the population. The thorough pathological examination of diseased animals showed that voles generally develop systemic disease with most frequent involvement of spleen and liver, followed by skin, lymph nodes, and lungs. The morphology of the lesions was consistent with active disease, and their distribution suggested skin wounds or oral and/or aerogenic infection as the main portal of entry. The demonstration of mycobacteria in open skin lesions, airways, and salivary glands indicated bacterial shedding from the skin and with sputum and saliva. This suggests not only the environment but also direct contact and devouring as likely sources of infection.

An immunological marker of tolerance to infection in wild rodents

Hosts are likely to respond to parasitic infections by a combination of resistance (expulsion of pathogens) and tolerance (active mitigation of pathology). Of these strategies, the basis of tolerance in animal hosts is relatively poorly understood, with especially little known about how tolerance is manifested in natural populations. We monitored a natural population of field voles using longitudinal and cross-sectional sampling modes and taking measurements on body condition, infection, immune gene expression, and survival. Using analyses stratified by life history stage, we demonstrate a pattern of tolerance to macroparasites in mature compared to immature males. In comparison to immature males, mature males resisted infection less and instead increased investment in body condition in response to accumulating burdens, but at the expense of reduced reproductive effort. We identified expression of the transcription factor Gata3 (a mediator of Th2 immunity) as an immunological biomarker of this tolerance response. Time series data for individual animals suggested that macroparasite infections gave rise to increased expression of Gata3, which gave rise to improved body condition and enhanced survival as hosts aged. These findings provide a clear and unexpected insight into tolerance responses (and their life history sequelae) in a natural vertebrate population. The demonstration that such responses (potentially promoting parasite transmission) can move from resistance to tolerance through the course of an individual's lifetime emphasises the need to incorporate them into our understanding of the dynamics and risk of infection in the natural environment. Moreover, the identification of Gata3 as a marker of tolerance to macroparasites raises important new questions regarding the role of Th2 immunity and the mechanistic nature of the tolerance response itself. A more manipulative, experimental approach is likely to be valuable in elaborating this further.

A coupled hidden Markov model for disease interactions

To investigate interactions between parasite species in a host, a population of field voles was studied longitudinally, with presence or absence of six different parasites measured repeatedly. Although trapping sessions were regular, a different set of voles was caught at each session, leading to incomplete profiles for all subjects. We use a discrete time hidden Markov model for each disease with transition probabilities dependent on covariates via a set of logistic regressions. For each disease the hidden states for each of the other diseases at a given time point form part of the covariate set for the Markov transition probabilities from that time point. This allows us to gauge the influence of each parasite species on the transition probabilities for each of the other parasite species. Inference is performed via a Gibbs sampler, which cycles through each of the diseases, first using an adaptive Metropolis-Hastings step to sample from the conditional posterior of the covariate parameters for that particular disease given the hidden states for all other diseases and then sampling from the hidden states for that disease given the parameters. We find evidence for interactions between several pairs of parasites and of an acquired immune response for two of the parasites.

Evidence for selection at cytokine loci in a natural population of field voles (Microtus agrestis)

Individuals in natural populations are frequently exposed to a wide range of pathogens. Given the diverse profile of gene products involved in responses to different types of pathogen, this potentially results in complex pathogen-specific selection pressures acting on a broad spectrum of immune system genes in wild animals. Thus far, studies into the evolution of immune genes in natural populations have focused almost exclusively on the Major Histocompatibility Complex (MHC). However, the MHC represents only a fraction of the immune system and there is a need to broaden research in wild species to include other immune genes. Here, we examine the evidence for natural selection in a range of non-MHC genes in a natural population of field voles (Microtus agrestis). We concentrate primarily on genes encoding cytokines, signalling molecules critical in eliciting and mediating immune responses and identify signatures of natural selection acting on several of these genes. In particular, genetic diversity within Interleukin 1 beta and Interleukin 2 appears to have been maintained through balancing selection. Taken together with previous findings that polymorphism within these genes is associated with variation in resistance to multiple pathogens, this suggests that pathogen-mediated selection may be an important force driving genetic diversity at cytokine loci in voles and other natural populations. These results also suggest that, along with the MHC, preservation of genetic variation within cytokine genes should be a priority for the conservation genetics of threatened wildlife populations.

Genetic diversity in cytokines associated with immune variation and resistance to multiple pathogens in a natural rodent population

Pathogens are believed to drive genetic diversity at host loci involved in immunity to infectious disease. To date, studies exploring the genetic basis of pathogen resistance in the wild have focussed almost exclusively on genes of the Major Histocompatibility Complex (MHC); the role of genetic variation elsewhere in the genome as a basis for variation in pathogen resistance has rarely been explored in natural populations. Cytokines are signalling molecules with a role in many immunological and physiological processes. Here we use a natural population of field voles (Microtus agrestis) to examine how genetic diversity at a suite of cytokine and other immune loci impacts the immune response phenotype and resistance to several endemic pathogen species. By using linear models to first control for a range of non-genetic factors, we demonstrate strong effects of genetic variation at cytokine loci both on host immunological parameters and on resistance to multiple pathogens. These effects were primarily localized to three cytokine genes (Interleukin 1 beta (Il1b), Il2, and Il12b), rather than to other cytokines tested, or to membrane-bound, non-cytokine immune loci. The observed genetic effects were as great as for other intrinsic factors such as sex and body weight. Our results demonstrate that genetic diversity at cytokine loci is a novel and important source of individual variation in immune function and pathogen resistance in natural populations. The products of these loci are therefore likely to affect interactions between pathogens and help determine survival and reproductive success in natural populations. Our study also highlights the utility of wild rodents as a model of ecological immunology, to better understand the causes and consequences of variation in immune function in natural populations including humans.

Species interactions in a parasite community drive infection risk in a wildlife population

Most hosts, including humans, are simultaneously or sequentially infected with several parasites. A key question is whether patterns of coinfection arise because infection by one parasite species affects susceptibility to others or because of inherent differences between hosts. We used time-series data from individual hosts in natural populations to analyze patterns of infection risk for a microparasite community, detecting large positive and negative effects of other infections. Patterns remain once variations in host susceptibility and exposure are accounted for. Indeed, effects are typically of greater magnitude, and explain more variation in infection risk, than the effects associated with host and environmental factors more commonly considered in disease studies. We highlight the danger of mistaken inference when considering parasite species in isolation rather than parasite communities.

A rigorous approach to investigating common assumptions about disease transmission: Process algebra as an emerging modelling methodology for epidemiology

Changing scale, for example, the ability to move seamlessly from an individual-based model to a population-based model, is an important problem in many fields. In this paper, we introduce process algebra as a novel solution to this problem in the context of models of infectious disease spread. Process algebra allows us to describe a system in terms of the stochastic behaviour of individuals, and is a technique from computer science. We review the use of process algebra in biological systems, and the variety of quantitative and qualitative analysis techniques available. The analysis illustrated here solves the changing scale problem: from the individual behaviour we can rigorously derive equations to describe the mean behaviour of the system at the level of the population. The biological problem investigated is the transmission of infection, and how this relates to individual interactions.

Space-time clustering analyses of type 1 diabetes in children from north-east England: support for an infectious aetiology?

BACKGROUND

The aetiology of type 1 diabetes in children is uncertain. A number of recent studies have suggested an infectious aetiology. It has been postulated that an infectious agent may be involved. Support for this hypothesis may be provided by a finding of space-time clustering. The aims of this study were: (i) to determine whether there was space-time clustering in cases of childhood diabetes from north-east England; and to test for differences in space-time clustering: (ii) due to age at diagnosis; (iii) between the sexes and (iv) between levels of residential population density.

METHODS

We studied incidence of type 1 diabetes diagnosed in children aged 0-14 years and diagnosed during the period 1990-2007. All cases were resident in a defined geographical region of north-east England (Northumberland, Newcastle upon Tyne and North Tyneside). We applied a second-order procedure based on K-functions to test for global clustering. Locations were residential addresses at time of diagnosis. Tests were repeated using nearest neighbour thresholds to allow for variable population density, providing the primary result for each analysis. Differences between sexes and between levels of population density were assessed.

RESULTS

We analysed 457 cases of type 1 diabetes. Overall, there was marginally significant evidence of global space-time clustering (P = 0.089). There was statistically significant clustering amongst pairs of cases that contained at least one female (P = 0.017), but not amongst pairs of cases that contained at least one male (P = 0.190). Furthermore, there was significant clustering amongst pairs of cases that contained at least one from a more densely populated area (P = 0.044), but not amongst pairs of cases that contained at least one from a less densely populated area (P = 0.226).

CONCLUSION

Although the analyses have only found marginally significant evidence of global space-time clustering for cases of type 1 diabetes diagnosed in north-east England, there were two notable findings. First, there was evidence of clustering amongst females and secondly clustering was confined to cases from more densely populated areas. These findings are consistent with a possible aetiological involvement of an infectious agent.

Host condition and individual risk of cowpox virus infection in natural animal populations: cause or effect?

Recent studies have provided evidence that endemic pathogens may affect dynamics in animals. However, such studies have not typically considered that infected individuals might have a preceding underlying poor condition. We examined whether individuals in poor condition are more likely to become infected by an endemic pathogen, using as a system the dynamics of cowpox virus in field voles. With data from monthly sampled vole populations, a nested case-control study evaluated whether susceptible individuals with poorer condition had higher probabilities of contracting cowpox. The influence of condition was found to be considerable, especially for males. At times when a susceptible male with good body condition had a relatively low probability of becoming infected, a susceptible male with poor body condition was twice as likely to contract cowpox; if this male was also anaemic, the chances were almost quadrupled. We discuss the care needed when interpreting the findings of wildlife disease studies.

Host range and genetic diversity of arenaviruses in rodents, United Kingdom

During a study to extend our knowledge of the host range and genetic diversity of arenaviruses in Great Britain, 66 of 1,147 rodent blood samples tested for antibody, and 127 of 482 tested by PCR, were found positive. All sequences most closely resembled those of previously identified lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus.

The abundance threshold for plague as a critical percolation phenomenon

Percolation theory is most commonly associated with the slow flow of liquid through a porous medium, with applications to the physical sciences. Epidemiological applications have been anticipated for disease systems where the host is a plant or volume of soil, and hence is fixed in space. However, no natural examples have been reported. The central question of interest in percolation theory, the possibility of an infinite connected cluster, corresponds in infectious disease to a positive probability of an epidemic. Archived records of plague (infection with Yersinia pestis) in populations of great gerbils (Rhombomys opimus) in Kazakhstan have been used to show that epizootics only occur when more than about 0.33 of the burrow systems built by the host are occupied by family groups. The underlying mechanism for this abundance threshold is unknown. Here we present evidence that it is a percolation threshold, which arises from the difference in scale between the movements that transport infectious fleas between family groups and the vast size of contiguous landscapes colonized by gerbils. Conventional theory predicts that abundance thresholds for the spread of infectious disease arise when transmission between hosts is density dependent such that the basic reproduction number (R(0)) increases with abundance, attaining 1 at the threshold. Percolation thresholds, however, are separate, spatially explicit thresholds that indicate long-range connectivity in a system and do not coincide with R(0) = 1. Abundance thresholds are the theoretical basis for attempts to manage infectious disease by reducing the abundance of susceptibles, including vaccination and the culling of wildlife. This first natural example of a percolation threshold in a disease system invites a re-appraisal of other invasion thresholds, such as those for epidemic viral infections in African lions (Panthera leo), and of other disease systems such as bovine tuberculosis (caused by Mycobacterium bovis) in badgers (Meles meles).