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Kabatoro D, Kabongo A, Kabongo K, Kabongo L, Kabongo M, Kady N, Kafu S, Kaggya M, Kaholongo B, Kairuki P, Kakololo S, Kakudji K, Kalisa A, Kalisa R, Kalufwelu M, Kalume S, Kamanda R, Kangili M, Kanoun H, Kapesa, Kapp P, Karanja J, Karar M, Kariuki K, Kaseke K, Kashuupulwa P, Kasongo K, Kassa S, Kateregga G, Kathrada M, Katompwa P, Katsukunya L, Kavuma K, Khalfallah, Khamajeet A, Khetrish S, Kibandwa, Kibochi W, Kilembe A, Kintu A, Kipng’etich B, Kiprop B, Kissoon V, Kisten TK, Kiwanuka J, Kluyts HL, Knox M, Koledale A, Koller V, Kolotsi M, Kongolo M, Konwuoh N, Koperski W, Koraz M, Kornilov A, Koto MZ, Kransingh S, Krick D, Kruger S, Kruse C, Kuhn W, Kuhn W, Kukembila A, Kule K, Kumar M, Kusel BS, Kusweje V, Kuteesa K, Kutor Y, Labib M, Laksari M, Lanos F, Lawal T, Le Manach Y, Lee C, Lekoloane R, Lelo S, Lerutla B, Lerutla M, Levin A, Likongo T, Limbajee M, Linyama D, Lionnet C, Liwani M, Loots E, Lopez AG, Lubamba C, Lumbala K, Lumbamba A, Lumona J, Lushima R, Luthuli L, Luweesi H, 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T, Mbuyi W, Mbuyisa M, Mbwele B, Mehyaoui R, Menkiti I, Mesarieki L, Metali A, Mewanou S, Mgonja L, Mgoqo N, Mhatu S, Mhlari T, Miima S, Milod I, Minani P, Mitema F, Mlotshwa A, Mmasi J, Mniki T, Mofikoya B, Mogale J, Mohamed A, Mohamed A, Mohamed A, Mohamed S, Mohamed S, Mohamed T, Mohamed A, Mohamed A, Mohamed A, Mohamed P, Mohammed I, Mohammed F, Mohammed M, Mohammed N, Mohlala M, Mokretar R, Molokoane F, Mongwe K, Montenegro L, Montwedi O, Moodie Q, Moopanar M, Morapedi M, Morulana T, Moses V, Mossy P, Mostafa H, Motilall S, Motloutsi S, Moussa K, Moutari M, Moyo O, Mphephu P, Mrara B, Msadabwe C, Mtongwe V, Mubeya F, Muchiri K, Mugambi J, Muguti G, Muhammad A, Mukama I, Mukenga M, Mukinda F, Mukuna P, Mungherera A, Munlemvo DM, Munyaradzi T, Munyika A, Muriithi J, Muroonga M, Murray R, Mushangwe V, Mushaninga M, Musiba V, Musowoya J, Mutahi S, Mutasiigwa M, Mutizira G, Muturi A, Muzenda T, Mvwala K, Mvwama N, Mwale A, Mwaluka C, Mwamba J, Mwanga H, Mwangi C, Mwansa S, Mwenda V, 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N, Olang P, Omigbodun AO, Omoding S, Omoshoro-Jones J, Onyango R, Onyegbule A, Orjiako O, Osazuwa M, Oscar K, Osinaike B, Osinowo A, Othin O, Otman F, Otokwala J, Ouanes F, Oumar O, Ousseini A, Padayachee S, Pahlana S, Pansegrouw J, Paruk F, Patel M, Patel U, Patience A, Pearse RM, Pembe J, Pengemale G, Perez N, Aguilera Perez M, Peter AM, Phaff M, Pheeha R, Pienaar B, Pillay V, Pilusa K, Pochana M, Polishchuk O, Porrill OS, Post E, Prosper A, Pupyshev M, Rabemazava A, Rabiou M, Rademan L, Rademeyer M, Raherison R, Rajah F, Rajcoomar M, Rakhda Z, Rakotoarijaona A, Rakotoarisoa A, Rakotoarison SR, Rakotoarison R, Ramadan L, Ramananasoa M, Rambau M, Ramchurn T, Ramilson H, Ramjee RJ, Ramnarain H, Ramos R, Rampai T, Ramphal S, Ramsamy T, Ramuntshi R, Randolph R, Randriambololona D, Ras W, Rasolondraibe R, Rasolonjatovo J, Rautenbach R, Ray S, Rayne SR, Razanakoto F, Reddy S, Reed AR, Rian J, Rija F, Rink B, Robelie A, Roberts C, Rocher A, Rocher S, Rodseth RN, Rois I, Rois W, Rokhsi S, Roos J, Rorke NF, Roura H, Rousseau F, Rousseau N, Royas L, Roytowski D, Rungan D, Rwehumbiza S, Ryabchiy B, Ryndine V, Saaiman C, Sabwa H, Sadat S, Saed S, Salaheddin E, Salaou H, Saleh M, Salisu-Kabara H, Doles Sama H, Samateh AL, Sam-Awortwi W, Samuel N, Sanduku D, Sani CM, Sanyang L, Sarah H, Sarkin-Pawa A, Sathiram R, Saurombe T, Schutte H, Sebei M, Sedekounou M, Segooa M, Semenya E, Semo B, Sendagire C, Senoga S, Senusi F, Serdyn T, Seshibe M, Shah G, Shamamba R, Shambare C, Shangase T, Shanin S, Shefren I, Sheshe A, Shittu O, Shkirban A, Sholadoye T, Shubba A, Sigcu N, Sihope S, Sikazwe D, Sikombe B, Simaga Abdoul K, Simo W, Singata K, Singh A, Singh S, Singh U, Sinoamadi V, Sipuka N, Sithole N, Sitima S, Skinner DL, Skinner G, Smith O, Smits C, Sofia M, Sogoba G, Sohoub A, Sookun S, Sosinska O, Souhe R, Souley G, Souleymane T, Spicer J, Spijkerman S, Steinhaus H, Steyn A, Steyn G, Steyn H, Stoltenkamp HL, Stroyer S. The ASOS Surgical Risk Calculator: development and validation of a tool for identifying African surgical patients at risk of severe postoperative complications. Br J Anaesth 2018; 121:1357-1363. [PMID: 30442264 DOI: 10.1016/j.bja.2018.08.005] [Citation(s) in RCA: 28] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/23/2018] [Revised: 07/19/2018] [Accepted: 08/06/2018] [Indexed: 10/28/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The African Surgical Outcomes Study (ASOS) showed that surgical patients in Africa have a mortality twice the global average. Existing risk assessment tools are not valid for use in this population because the pattern of risk for poor outcomes differs from high-income countries. The objective of this study was to derive and validate a simple, preoperative risk stratification tool to identify African surgical patients at risk for in-hospital postoperative mortality and severe complications. METHODS ASOS was a 7-day prospective cohort study of adult patients undergoing surgery in Africa. The ASOS Surgical Risk Calculator was constructed with a multivariable logistic regression model for the outcome of in-hospital mortality and severe postoperative complications. The following preoperative risk factors were entered into the model; age, sex, smoking status, ASA physical status, preoperative chronic comorbid conditions, indication for surgery, urgency, severity, and type of surgery. RESULTS The model was derived from 8799 patients from 168 African hospitals. The composite outcome of severe postoperative complications and death occurred in 423/8799 (4.8%) patients. The ASOS Surgical Risk Calculator includes the following risk factors: age, ASA physical status, indication for surgery, urgency, severity, and type of surgery. The model showed good discrimination with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.805 and good calibration with c-statistic corrected for optimism of 0.784. CONCLUSIONS This simple preoperative risk calculator could be used to identify high-risk surgical patients in African hospitals and facilitate increased postoperative surveillance. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION NCT03044899.
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P, Thirapakpoomanunt P, Anakkamaetee R, Montakantikul P, Tangsujaritvijit V, Sinha S, Pati J, Sahu S, Adukauskiene D, Valanciene D, Dambrauskiene A, Adukauskiene D, Valanciene D, Dambrauskiene A, Hernandez K, Lopez T, Saca D, Bello M, Mahmood W, Hamed K, Al Badi N, AlThawadi S, Al Hosaini S, Salahuddin N, Cilloniz CC, Ceccato AC, Bassi GLL, Ferrer MF, Gabarrus AG, Ranzani OR, Jose ASS, Vidal CGG, de la Bella Casa JPP, Blasi FB, Torres AT, Adukauskiene D, Ciginskiene A, Dambrauskiene A, Simoliuniene R, Giuliano G, Triunfio D, Sozio E, Taddei E, Brogi E, Sbrana F, Ripoli A, Bertolino G, Tascini C, Forfori F, Fleischmann C, Goldfarb D, Schlattmann P, Schlapbach L, Kissoon N, Baykara N, Akalin H, Arslantas MK, Gavrilovic SG, Vukoja MV, Hache MH, Kashyap RK, Dong YD, Gajic OG, Ranzani O, Shankar-Hari M, Harrison D, Rabello L, Rowan K, Salluh J, Soares M, Markota AM, Fluher JF, Kogler DK, Borovšak ZB, Sinkovic AS, László I, Öveges N, Forgács M, Kiss T, Hankovszky P, Palágyi P, Bebes A, Gubán B, Földesi I, Araczki Á, Telkes M, Ondrik Z, Helyes Z, Kemény Á, Molnár Z, Fareed J, Siddiqui Z, Aggarwal P, Iqbal O, Hoppensteadt D, Lewis M, Wasmund R, Abro S, Raghuvir S, Tsuruta K, Barie PS, Fineberg D, Radford A, Tsuruta K, Casazza A, Vilardo A, Bellazzi E, Boschi R, Ciprandi D, Gigliuto C, Preda R, Vanzino R, Vetere M, Carnevale L, Kyriazopoulou E, Pistiki A, Routsi C, Tsangaris I, Giamarellos-Bourboulis E, Kyriazopoulou E, Tsangaris I, Routsi C, Pnevmatikos I, Vlachogiannis G, Antoniadou E, Mandragos K, Armaganidis A, Giamarellos-Bourboulis E, Allan P, Oehmen R, Luo J, Ellis C, Latham P, Newman J, Pritchett C, Pandya D, Cripps A, Harris S, Jadav M, Langford R, Ko B, Park H, Beumer CM, Koch R, Beuningen DV, Oudelashof AM, Vd Veerdonk FL, Kolwijck E, VanderHoeven JG, Bergmans DC, Hoedemaekers C, Brandt JB, Golej J, Burda G, Mostafa G, Schneider A, Vargha R, Hermon M, Levin P, Broyer C, Assous M, Wiener-Well Y, Dahan M, Benenson S, Ben-Chetrit E, Faux A, Sherazi R, Sethi A, Saha S, Kiselevskiy M, Gromova E, Loginov S, Tchikileva I, Dolzhikova Y, Krotenko N, Vlasenko R, Anisimova N, Spadaro S, Fogagnolo A, Remelli F, Alvisi V, Romanello A, Marangoni E, Volta C, Degrassi A, Mearelli F, Casarsa C, Fiotti N, Biolo G, Cariqueo M, Luengo C, Galvez R, Romero C, Cornejo R, Llanos O, Estuardo N, Alarcon P, Magazi B, Khan S, Pasipanodya J, Eriksson M, Strandberg G, Lipsey M, Larsson A, Rajput Z, Hiscock F, Karadag T, Uwagwu J, Jain S, Molokhia A, Barrasa H, Soraluce A, Uson E, Rodriguez A, Isla A, Martin A, Fernández B, Fonseca F, Sánchez-Izquierdo JA, Maynar FJ, Kaffarnik M, Alraish R, Frey O, Roehr A, Stockmann M, Wicha S, Shortridge D, Castanheira M, Sader HS, Streit JM, Flamm RK, Falsetta K, Lam T, Reidt S, Jancik J, Kinoshita T, Yoshimura J, Yamakawa K, Fujimi S, Armaganidis A, Torres A, Zakynthinos S, Mandragos C, Giamarellos-Bourboulis E, Ramirez P, De la Torre-Prados M, Rodriguez A, Dale G, Wach A, Beni L, Hooftman L, Zwingelstein C, François B, Colin G, Dequin PF, Laterre PF, Perez A, Welte R, Lorenz I, Eller P, Joannidis M, Bellmann R, Lim S, Chana S, Patel S, Higuera J, Cabestrero D, Rey L, Narváez G, Blandino A, Aroca M, Saéz S, De Pablo R, Thiessen S, Vanhorebeek I, Derde S, Derese I, Dufour T, Albert CN, Langouche L, Goossens C, Peersman N, Vermeersch P, Vander Perre S, Holst J, Wouters P, Van den Berghe G, Liu X, Uber AU, Holmberg M, Konanki V, McNaughton M, Zhang J, Donnino MW, Demirkiran O, Byelyalov A, Luengo C, Guerrero J, Cariqueo M, Scorcella C, Domizi R, Damiani E, Tondi S, Pierantozzi S, Rossini N, Falanga U, Monaldi V, Adrario E, Pelaia P, Donati A, Cole O, Scawn N, Balciunas M, Blascovics I, Vuylsteke A, Salaunkey K, Omar A, Salama A, Allam M, Alkhulaifi A, Verstraete S, Vanhorebeek I, Van Puffelen E, Derese I, Ingels C, Verbruggen S, Wouters P, Joosten K, Hanot J, Guerra G, Vlasselaers D, Lin J, Van den Berghe G, Haines R, Zolfaghari P, Hewson R, Offiah C, Prowle J, Park H, Ko B, Buter H, Veenstra JA, Koopmans M, Boerma EC, Veenstra JA, Buter H, Koopmans M, Boerma EC, Taha A, Shafie A, Hallaj S, Gharaibeh D, Hon H, Bizrane M, El Khattate AA, Madani N, Abouqal R, Belayachi J, Kongpolprom N, Sanguanwong N, Sanaie S, Mahmoodpoor A, Hamishehkar H, Biderman P, Van Heerden P, Avitzur Y, Solomon S, Iakobishvili Z, Carmi U, Gorfil D, Singer P, Paisley C, Patrick-Heselton J, Mogk M, Humphreys J, Welters I, Pierantozzi S, Scorcella C, Domizi R, Damiani E, Tondi S, Casarotta E, Bolognini S, Adrario E, Pelaia P, Donati A, Holmberg MJ, Moskowitz A, Patel P, Grossestreuer A, Uber A, Andersen LW, Donnino MW, Malinverni S, Goedeme D, Mols P, Langlois PL, Szwec C, D’Aragon F, Heyland DK, Manzanares W, Manzanares W, Szwec C, Langlois P, Aramendi I, Heyland D, Stankovic N, Nadler J, Uber A, Holmberg M, Sanchez L, Wolfe R, Chase M, Donnino M, Cocchi M, Atalan HK, Gucyetmez B, Kavlak ME, Aslan S, Kargi A, Yazici S, Donmez R, Polat KY, Piechota M, Piechota A, Misztal M, Bernas S, Pietraszek-Grzywaczewska I, Saleh M, Hamdy A, Hamdy A, Elhallag M, Atar F, Kundakci A, Gedik E, Sahinturk H, Zeyneloglu P, Pirat A, Popescu M, Tomescu D, Van Gassel R, Baggerman M, Schaap F, Bol M, Nicolaes G, Beurskens D, Damink SO, Van de Poll M, Horibe M, Sasaki M, Sanui M, Iwasaki E, Sawano H, Goto T, Ikeura T, Hamada T, Oda T, Mayumi T, Kanai T, Kjøsen G, Horneland R, Rydenfelt K, Aandahl E, Tønnessen T, Haugaa H, Lockett P, Evans L, Somerset L, Ker-Reid F, Laver S, Courtney E, Dalton S, Georgiou A, Robinson K, Lam T, Haas B, Reidt S, Bartlett K, Jancik J, Bigwood M, Hanley R, Morgan P, Marouli D, Chatzimichali A, Kolyvaki S, Panteli A, Diamantaki E, Pediaditis E, Sirogianni P, Ginos P, Kondili E, Georgopoulos D, Askitopoulou H, Zampieri FG, Liborio AB, Besen BA, Cavalcanti AB, Dominedò C, Dell’Anna AM, Monayer A, Grieco DL, Barelli R, Cutuli SL, Maddalena AI, Picconi E, Sonnino C, Sandroni C, Antonelli M, Gucyetmez B, Atalan HK, Tuzuner F, Cakar N, Jacob M, Sahu S, Singh YP, Mehta Y, Yang KY, Kuo S, Rai V, Cheng T, Ertmer C, Czempik P, Hutchings S, Watts S, Wilson C, Burton C, Kirkman E, Drennan D, O’Prey A, MacKay A, Forrest R, Oglinda A, Ciobanu G, Casian M, Oglinda C, Lun CT, Yuen HJ, Ng G, Leung A, So SO, Chan HS, Lai KY, Sanguanwit P, Charoensuk W, Phakdeekitcharoen B, Batres-Baires G, Kammerzell I, Lahmer T, Mayr U, Schmid R, Huber W, Spanuth E, Bomberg H, Klingele M, Thomae R, Groesdonk H, Bernas S, Piechota M, Mirkiewicz K, Pérez AG, Silva J, Ramos A, Acharta F, Perezlindo M, Lovesio L, Antonelli PG, Dogliotti A, Lovesio C, Baron J, Schiefer J, Baron DM, Faybik P, Shum HP, Yan WW, Chan TM, Marouli D, Chatzimichali A, Kolyvaki S, Panteli A, Diamantaki E, Pediaditis E, Sirogianni P, Ginos P, Kondili E, Georgopoulos D, Askitopoulou H, Vicka V, Gineityte D, Ringaitiene D, Sipylaite J, Pekarskiene J, Beurskens DM, Van Smaalen TC, Hoogland P, Winkens B, Christiaans MH, Reutelingsperger CP, Van Heurn E, Nicolaes GA, Schmitt FS, Salgado ES, Friebe JF, Fleming TF, Zemva JZ, Schmoch TS, Uhle FU, Kihm LK, Morath CM, Nusshag CN, Zeier MZ, Bruckner TB, Mehrabi AM, Nawroth PN, Weigand MW, Hofer SH, Brenner TB, Fotopoulou G, Poularas I, Kokkoris S, Brountzos E, Zakynthinos S, Routsi C, Saleh M, Elghonemi M, Nilsson KF, Sandin J, Gustafsson L, Frithiof R, Skorniakov I, Varaksin A, Vikulova D, Shaikh O, Whiteley C, Ostermann M, Di Lascio G, Anicetti L, Bonizzoli M, Fulceri G, Migliaccio ML, Sentina P, Cozzolino M, Peris A, Khadzhynov D, Halleck F, Staeck O, Lehner L, Budde K, Slowinski T, Slowinski T, Kindgen-Milles D, Khadzhynov D, Huysmans N, Laenen MV, Helmschrodt A, Boer W. 37th International Symposium on Intensive Care and Emergency Medicine (part 3 of 3). Crit Care 2017. [PMCID: PMC5374592 DOI: 10.1186/s13054-017-1629-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/21/2022] Open
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