Improving program targeting to combat early-life mortality by identifying high-risk births: an application to India

Background

It is widely recognized that there are multiple risk factors for early-life mortality. In practice most interventions to curb early-life mortality target births based on a single risk factor, such as poverty. However, most premature deaths are not from the targeted group. Thus interventions target many births that are at not at high risk and miss many births at high risk.

Methods

Using data from the second wave of Demographic and Health Surveys from India and a hierarchical Bayesian model, we estimate infant mortality risk for 73.320 infants in India as a function of 4 risk factors. We show how this information can be used to improve program targeting. We compare our novel approach against common programs that target groups based on a single risk factor.

Results

A conventional approach that targets mothers in the lowest quintile of income correctly identifies only 30% of infant deaths. By contrast, using four risk factors simultaneously we identify a group of births of the same size that includes 57% of all deaths. Using the 2012 census to translate these percentages into numbers, there were 25.642.200 births in 2012 and 4.4% died before the age of one. Our approach correctly identifies 643.106 of 1.128.257 infant deaths while poverty only identifies 338.477 infant deaths.

Conclusion

Our approach considerably improves program targeting by identifying more infant deaths than the usual approach that targets births based on a single risk factor. This leads to more efficient program targeting. This is particularly useful in developing countries, where resources are lacking and needs are high.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12963-018-0172-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Gender-specific HIV and substance abuse prevention strategies for South African men: study protocol for a randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Young men in South Africa face concurrent epidemics of HIV, drug and alcohol abuse, and unemployment. Standard HIV prevention programs, located in healthcare settings and/or using counseling models, fail to engage men. Soccer and vocational training are examined as contexts to deliver male-specific, HIV prevention programs.

METHODS

Young men (n = 1200) are randomly assigned by neighborhood to one of three conditions: 1) soccer league (n = 400; eight neighborhoods); 2) soccer league plus vocational training (n = 400; eight neighborhoods); or 3) a control condition (n = 400; eight neighborhoods). Soccer practices and games occur three times per week and vocational training is delivered by Silulo Ulutho Technologies and Zenzele Training and Development. At baseline, 6 months, 12 months, and 24 months, the relative efficacy of these strategies to increase the number of significant outcomes (NSO) among 15 outcomes which occur (1) or not (0) are summed and compared using binomial logistic regressions. The summary primary outcome reflects recent HIV testing, substance abuse, employment, sexual risk, violence, arrests, and mental health status.

DISCUSSION

The failure of men to utilize HIV prevention programs highlights the need for gender-specific intervention strategies. However, men in groups can provoke and encourage greater risk-taking among themselves. The current protocol evaluates a male-specific strategy to influence men's risk for HIV, as well as to improve their ability to contribute to family income and daily routines. Both interventions are expected to significantly benefit men compared with the control condition.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov registration, NCT02358226 . Registered 24 November 2014.

Outcomes of Patients With Syncope and Suspected Dementia

OBJECTIVES

Syncope and near-syncope are common in patients with dementia and a leading cause of emergency department (ED) evaluation and subsequent hospitalization. The objective of this study was to describe the clinical trajectory and short-term outcomes of patients who presented to the ED with syncope or near-syncope and were assessed by their ED provider to have dementia.

METHODS

This multisite prospective cohort study included patients 60 years of age or older who presented to the ED with syncope or near-syncope between 2013 and 2016. We analyzed a subcohort of 279 patients who were identified by the treating ED provider to have baseline dementia. We collected comprehensive patient-level, utilization, and outcomes data through interviews, provider surveys, and chart abstraction. Outcome measures included serious conditions related to syncope and death.

RESULTS

Overall, 221 patients (79%) were hospitalized with a median length of stay of 2.1 days. A total of 46 patients (16%) were diagnosed with a serious condition in the ED. Of the 179 hospitalized patients who did not have a serious condition identified in the ED, 14 (7.8%) were subsequently diagnosed with a serious condition during the hospitalization, and an additional 12 patients (6.7%) were diagnosed postdischarge within 30 days of the index ED visit. There were seven deaths (2.5%) overall, none of which were cardiac-related. No patients who were discharged from the ED died or had a serious condition in the subsequent 30 days.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with perceived dementia who presented to the ED with syncope or near-syncope were frequently hospitalized. The diagnosis of a serious condition was uncommon if not identified during the initial ED assessment. Given the known iatrogenic risks of hospitalization for patients with dementia, future investigation of the impact of goals of care discussions on reducing potentially preventable, futile, or unwanted hospitalizations while improving goal-concordant care is warranted.

Effect of alvimopan on gastrointestinal recovery and length of hospital stay after retroperitoneal lymph node dissection for testicular cancer

Objective

Alvimopan use has reduced the length of hospital stay in patients undergoing major abdominal surgeries and radical cystectomy. Retroperitoneal lymph node dissection for testicular cancer may be associated with delayed gastrointestinal recovery prolonging hospital length of stay. We evaluate whether alvimopan is associated with enhanced gastrointestinal recovery and shorter hospital length of stay in men undergoing retroperitoneal lymph node dissection for testicular cancer.

Materials and methods

From 2010 to 2016, 29 patients underwent open, transperitoneal bilateral template retroperitoneal lymph node dissection. Data for patients who received alvimopan were prospectively collected and compared to a historical cohort of patients who did not receive alvimopan. Primary outcome measures were length of stay and recovery of gastrointestinal function. Descriptive statistics were reported. Time-to-event outcomes were evaluated using cumulative incidence curves and log rank test. Factors associated with length of stay were analyzed for correlation using multiple linear regression.

Results

Of 29 men undergoing retroperitoneal lymph node dissection, eight received alvimopan and 21 did not. The two cohorts were well matched, with no significant differences. In the alvimopan cohort compared with those who did not receive alvimopan median time to return of flatus was 2 versus 4 days (p=0.0002), and median time to first bowel movement was 2.5 versus 5 days (p=0.046), respectively. Median length of stay in the alvimopan cohort was 4 days versus 6 days in those who did not receive alvimopan (p=0.074). In adjusted analyses, receipt of alvimopan did not influence length of stay.

Conclusion

Alvimopan may facilitate gastrointestinal recovery after retroperitoneal lymph node dissection for testicular cancer. Whether this translates into reduced length of stay needs to be determined by randomized controlled trials using larger cohorts.

Level of evidence

3b.

App-Based Sexual Partner Seeking and Sexually Transmitted Infection Outcomes: A Cross-Sectional Study of HIV-Negative Men Who Have Sex With Men Attending a Sexually Transmitted Infection Clinic in Los Angeles, California

BACKGROUND

Gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (MSM) face higher rates of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) compared with the general population. The association between venues where sexual partners are met and STI transmission is dynamic and poorly understood, especially among those who use geosocial networking (GSN) apps. This study aimed to determine whether there is a difference in STI incidence between MSM who met their last sexual partner through a GSN app and MSM who met their last partner via other venues.

METHODS

Data were analyzed from HIV-negative MSM attending the Los Angeles LBGT Center between August 2015 and July 2016 (n = 9499). Logistic regression models were used to investigate the relationship between STI incidence and whether or not an individual met his last partner through a GSN app.

RESULTS

No relationship was detected between STI incidence and whether one's last sexual partner was met via GSN app. However, an association was detected between STI incidence and having used GSN apps to meet sexual partners in the past 3 months. A dose-response relationship was observed between the number of venues used to meet partners and testing positive for any STI (adjusted odds ratio, 1.08; 95% confidence interval, 1.02-1.14).

CONCLUSIONS

The relationship between how people meet sexual partners and STI acquisition is much more nuanced than previously thought. Geosocial networking apps do not inherently expose users to high-risk reservoirs of STIs, but further understanding of the complexity of sexual networks and networking methods is warranted, given increasing rates of STIs.

Bayesian methods for analysis of biosimilar phase III trials

A biologic is a product made from living organisms. A biosimilar is a new version of an already approved branded biologic. Regulatory guidelines recommend a totality-of-the-evidence approach with stepwise development for a new biosimilar. Initial steps for biosimilar development are (a) analytical comparisons to establish similarity in structure and function followed by (b) potential animal studies and a human pharmacokinetics/pharmacodynamics equivalence study. The last step is a phase III clinical trial to confirm similar efficacy, safety, and immunogenicity between the biosimilar and the biologic. A high degree of analytical and pharmacokinetics/pharmacodynamics similarity could provide justification for an eased statistical threshold in the phase III trial, which could then further facilitate an overall abbreviated approval process for biosimilars. Bayesian methods can help in the analysis of clinical trials, by adding proper prior information into the analysis, thereby potentially decreasing required sample size. We develop proper prior information for the analysis of a phase III trial for showing that a proposed biosimilar is similar to a reference biologic. For the reference product, we use a meta-analysis of published results to set a prior for the probability of efficacy, and we propose priors for the proposed biosimilar informed by the strength of the evidence generated in the earlier steps of the approval process. A simulation study shows that with few exceptions, the Bayesian relative risk analysis provides greater power, shorter 90% credible intervals with more than 90% frequentist coverage, and better root mean squared error.

A Bayesian confirmatory factor model for multivariate observations in the form of two-way tables of data

Researchers collected multiple measurements on patients with schizophrenia and their relatives, as well as control subjects and their relatives, to study vulnerability factors for schizophrenics and their near relatives. Observations across individuals from the same family are correlated, and also the multiple outcome measures on the same individuals are correlated. Traditional data analyses model outcomes separately and thus do not provide information about the interrelationships among outcomes. We propose a novel Bayesian family factor model (BFFM), which extends the classical confirmatory factor analysis model to explain the correlations among observed variables using a combination of family-member and outcome factors. Traditional methods for fitting confirmatory factor analysis models, such as full-information maximum likelihood (FIML) estimation using quasi-Newton optimization (QNO), can have convergence problems and Heywood cases (lack of convergence) caused by empirical underidentification. In contrast, modern Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo handles these inference problems easily. Simulations compare the BFFM to FIML-QNO in settings where the true covariance matrix is identified, close to not identified, and not identified. For these settings, FIML-QNO fails to fit the data in 13%, 57%, and 85% of the cases, respectively, while MCMC provides stable estimates. When both methods successfully fit the data, estimates from the BFFM have smaller variances and comparable mean-squared errors. We illustrate the BFFM by analyzing data on data from schizophrenics and their family members.

A novel mutation in the TG gene (G2322S) causing congenital hypothyroidism in a Sudanese family: a case report

Background

Congenital hypothyroidism (CH) has an incidence of approximately 1:3000, but only 15% have mutations in the thyroid hormone synthesis pathways. Genetic analysis allows for the precise diagnosis.

Case presentation

A 3-week old girl presented with a large goiter, serum TSH > 100 mIU/L (reference range: 0.7–5.9 mIU/L); free T₄ < 3.2 pmol/L (reference range: 8.7–16 pmol/L); thyroglobulin (TG) 101 μg/L. Thyroid Tc-99 m scan showed increased radiotracer uptake. One brother had CH and both affected siblings have been clinically and biochemically euthyroid on levothyroxine replacement. Another sibling had normal thyroid function. Both Sudanese parents reported non-consanguinity. Peripheral blood DNA from the proposita was subjected to whole exome sequencing (WES). WES identified a novel homozygous missense mutation of the TG gene: c.7021G > A, p.Gly2322Ser, which was subsequently confirmed by Sanger sequencing and present in one allele of both parents. DNA samples from 354 alleles in four Sudanese ethnic groups (Nilotes, Darfurians, Nuba, and Halfawien) failed to demonstrate the presence of the mutant allele. Haplotyping showed a 1.71 centiMorgans stretch of homozygosity in the TG locus suggesting that this mutation occurred identical by descent and the possibility of common ancestry of the parents. The mutation is located in the cholinesterase-like (ChEL) domain of TG.

Conclusions

A novel rare missense mutation in the TG gene was identified. The ChEL domain is critical for protein folding and patients with CH due to misfolded TG may present without low serum TG despite the TG gene mutations.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12881-018-0588-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Effectiveness of a Peer Navigation Intervention to Sustain Viral Suppression Among HIV-Positive Men and Transgender Women Released From Jail: The LINK LA Randomized Clinical Trial

IMPORTANCE

Diagnosis of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, linkage and retention in care, and adherence to antiretroviral therapy are steps in the care continuum enabling consistent viral suppression for people living with HIV, extending longevity and preventing further transmission. While incarcerated, people living with HIV receive antiretroviral therapy and achieve viral suppression more consistently than after they are released. No interventions have shown sustained viral suppression after jail release.

OBJECTIVE

To test the effect on viral suppression in released inmates of the manualized LINK LA (Linking Inmates to Care in Los Angeles) peer navigation intervention compared with standard transitional case management controls.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Randomized clinical trial conducted from December 2012 through October 2016 with people living with HIV being released from Los Angeles (LA) County Jail. All participants were (1) 18 years or older; (2) either men or transgender women diagnosed with HIV; (3) English speaking; (4) selected for the transitional case management program prior to enrollment; (5) residing in LA County; and (6) eligible for antiretroviral therapy.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Change in HIV viral suppression (<75 copies/mL) over a 12-month period.

INTERVENTIONS

During the 12-session, 24-week LINK LA Peer Navigation intervention, trained peer navigators counseled participants on goal setting and problem solving around barriers to HIV care and adherence, starting while the participants were still in jail. After their release, they continued counseling while they accompanied participants to 2 HIV care visits, then facilitated communication with clinicians during visits.

RESULTS

Of 356 participants randomized, 151 (42%) were black; 110 (31%) were Latino; 303 (85%) were men; 53 (15%) were transgender women; and the mean (SD) age was 39.5 (10.4) years. At 12 months, viral suppression was achieved by 62 (49.6%) of 125 participants in the peer navigation (intervention) arm compared with 45 (36.0%) of 125 in the transitional case management (control) arm, for an unadjusted treatment difference of 13.6% (95% CI, 1.34%-25.9%; P = .03). In the repeated measures, random effects, logistic model the adjusted probability of viral suppression declined from 52% at baseline to 30% among controls, while those in the peer navigation arm maintained viral suppression at 49% from baseline to 12 months, for a difference-in-difference of 22% (95% CI, 0.03-0.41; P = .02).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

The LINK LA peer navigation intervention was successful at preventing declines in viral suppression, typically seen after release from incarceration, compared with standard transitional case management. Future research should examine ways to strengthen the intervention to increase viral suppression above baseline levels.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT01406626.

Predictors of Short-Term Outcomes after Syncope: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Introduction

We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to identify predictors of serious clinical outcomes after an acute-care evaluation for syncope.

Methods

We identified studies that assessed for predictors of short-term (≤30 days) serious clinical events after an emergency department (ED) visit for syncope. We performed a MEDLINE search (January 1, 1990 – July 1, 2017) and reviewed reference lists of retrieved articles. The primary outcome was the occurrence of a serious clinical event (composite of mortality, arrhythmia, ischemic or structural heart disease, major bleed, or neurovascular event) within 30 days. We estimated the sensitivity, specificity, and likelihood ratio of findings for the primary outcome. We created summary estimates of association on a variable-by-variable basis using a Bayesian random-effects model.

Results

We reviewed 2,773 unique articles; 17 met inclusion criteria. The clinical findings most predictive of a short-term, serious event were the following: 1) An elevated blood urea nitrogen level (positive likelihood ratio [LR+]: 2.86, 95% confidence interval [CI] [1.15, 5.42]); 2); history of congestive heart failure (LR+: 2.65, 95%CI [1.69, 3.91]); 3) initial low blood pressure in the ED (LR+: 2.62, 95%CI [1.12, 4.9]); 4) history of arrhythmia (LR+: 2.32, 95%CI [1.31, 3.62]); and 5) an abnormal troponin value (LR+: 2.49, 95%CI [1.36, 4.1]). Younger age was associated with lower risk (LR−: 0.44, 95%CI [0.25, 0.68]). An abnormal electrocardiogram was mildly predictive of increased risk (LR+ 1.79, 95%CI [1.14, 2.63]).

Conclusion

We identified specific risk factors that may aid clinical judgment and that should be considered in the development of future risk-prediction tools for serious clinical events after an ED visit for syncope.

Does HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis use lead to a higher incidence of sexually transmitted infections? A case-crossover study of men who have sex with men in Los Angeles, California

BACKGROUND

Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is an effective method for reducing HIV incidence among at-risk populations. However, concerns exist over the potential for an increase in STIs following PrEP initiation. The objective of this study is to compare the STI incidence before and after PrEP initiation within subjects among a cohort of men who have sex with men in Los Angeles, California.

METHODS

The present study used data from patients who initiated PrEP services at the Los Angeles LGBT Center between October 2015 and October 2016 (n=275). A generalised linear mixed model was used with a case-crossover design to determine if there was a significant difference in STIs within subjects 365 days before (before-PrEP period) and 365 days after PrEP initiation (after-PrEP period).

RESULTS

In a generalised linear mixed model, there were no significant differences in urethral gonorrhoea (P=0.95), rectal gonorrhoea (P=0.33), pharyngeal gonorrhoea (P=0.65) or urethral chlamydia (P=0.71) between periods. There were modest increases in rectal chlamydia (rate ratio (RR) 1.83; 95% CI 1.13 to 2.98; P=0.01) and syphilis diagnoses (RR 2.97; 95% CI 1.23 to 7.18; P=0.02).

CONCLUSIONS

There were significant increases in rectal chlamydia and syphilis diagnoses when comparing the periods directly before and after PrEP initiation. However, only 28% of individuals had an increase in STIs between periods. Although risk compensation appears to be present for a segment of PrEP users, the majority of individuals either maintain or decrease their sexual risk following PrEP initiation.

Disparities in the Use of Continent Urinary Diversions after Radical Cystectomy for Bladder Cancer

Background:

Radical cystectomy (RC) with ileal conduit (IC) or continent diversion (CD) is standard treatment for high-risk non-invasive and muscle-invasive bladder cancer.

Objective:

Our aim is to study contemporary trends in the utilization of ICs and CDs in patients undergoing RC.

Methods:

Using the National Inpatient Sample 2001–2012, we identified all patients diagnosed with a malignant bladder neoplasm who underwent RC followed by IC or CD. Patient demographics, comorbidities, length of stay (LOS), and in-hospital complications, mortality, and costs were compared. Multivariable logistic regression analysis, Chi square, and t-tests were used for analysis.

Results:

Between 2001–2012, approximately 69,049 ICs and 6,991 CDs were performed. CDs increased from 2001 to 2008, but declined after 2008 (p < 0.0001). Patients of all ages received ICs at a higher rate than CDs (40–59 years: 79.5% vs. 20.5%; 60–69 years: 88.0% vs. 12.0%; p < 0.0001). There was a difference in males vs. females (10.2% vs. 4.0%; OR 2.36) and Caucasians vs. African Americans (9.0% vs. 6.7%; OR 1.49) when comparing CD rates. CD rates were highest in the West, urban teaching centers, and large hospitals (p < 0.001). ICs were associated with higher rates of overall postoperative complications (p = 0.0185) including infection (p = 0.002) and mortality (p < 0.0001). In-hospital costs were greater for the CD group.

Conclusions:

The number of CDs has declined recently. Patients of all ages are more likely to receive ICs than CDs. Gender, racial, and geographic disparities exist among those receiving CDs. CDs are associated with lower rates of in-hospital complications and mortality, but higher in-hospital costs.

ECG Predictors of Cardiac Arrhythmias in Older Adults With Syncope

STUDY OBJECTIVE

Cardiac arrhythmia is a life-threatening condition in older adults who present to the emergency department (ED) with syncope. Previous work suggests the initial ED ECG can predict arrhythmia risk; however, specific ECG predictors have been variably specified. Our objective is to identify specific ECG abnormalities predictive of 30-day serious cardiac arrhythmias in older adults presenting to the ED with syncope.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective, observational study at 11 EDs in adults aged 60 years or older who presented with syncope or near syncope. We excluded patients with a serious cardiac arrhythmia diagnosed during the ED evaluation from the primary analysis. The outcome was occurrence of 30-day serous cardiac arrhythmia. The exposure variables were predefined ECG abnormalities. Independent predictors were identified through multivariate logistic regression. The sensitivities and specificities of any predefined ECG abnormality and any ECG abnormality identified on adjusted analysis to predict 30-day serious cardiac arrhythmia were also calculated.

RESULTS

After exclusion of 197 patients (5.5%; 95% confidence interval [CI] 4.7% to 6.2%) with serious cardiac arrhythmias in the ED, the study cohort included 3,416 patients. Of these, 104 patients (3.0%; 95% CI 2.5% to 3.7%) had a serious cardiac arrhythmia within 30 days from the index ED visit (median time to diagnosis 2 days [interquartile range 1 to 5 days]). The presence of nonsinus rhythm, multiple premature ventricular conductions, short PR interval, first-degree atrioventricular block, complete left bundle branch block, and Q wave/T wave/ST-segment abnormalities consistent with acute or chronic ischemia on the initial ED ECG increased the risk for a 30-day serious cardiac arrhythmia. This combination of ECG abnormalities had a similar sensitivity in predicting 30-day serious cardiac arrhythmia compared with any ECG abnormality (76.9% [95% CI 67.6% to 84.6%] versus 77.9% [95% CI 68.7% to 85.4%]) and was more specific (55.1% [95% CI 53.4% to 56.8%] versus 46.6% [95% CI 44.9% to 48.3%]).

CONCLUSION

In older ED adults with syncope, approximately 3% receive a diagnosis of a serious cardiac arrhythmia not recognized on initial ED evaluation. The presence of specific abnormalities on the initial ED ECG increased the risk for 30-day serious cardiac arrhythmias.

Are Partner Race and Intimate Partner Violence Associated with Incident and Newly Diagnosed HIV Infection in African-American Men Who Have Sex with Men?

Black gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (BMSM) experience a disparate rate of HIV infections among MSM. Previous analyses have determined that STI coinfection and undiagnosed HIV infection partly explain the disparity. However, few studies have analyzed the impact of partner-level variables on HIV incidence among BMSM. Data were analyzed for BMSM who attended the Los Angeles LGBT Center from August 2011 to July 2015 (n = 1974) to identify risk factors for HIV infection. A multivariable logistic regression was used to analyze predictors for HIV prevalence among all individuals at first test (n = 1974; entire sample). A multivariable survival analysis was used to analyze predictors for HIV incidence (n = 936; repeat tester subset). Condomless receptive anal intercourse at last sex, number of sexual partners in the last 30 days, and intimate partner violence (IPV) were significant partner-level predictors of HIV prevalence and incidence. Individuals who reported IPV had 2.39 times higher odds (CI 1.35-4.23) and 3.33 times higher hazard (CI 1.47-7.55) of seroconverting in the prevalence and incidence models, respectively. Reporting Black partners only was associated with increased HIV prevalence, but a statistically significant association was not found with incidence. IPV is an important correlate of both HIV prevalence and incidence in BMSM. Further studies should explore how IPV affects HIV risk trajectories among BMSM. Given that individuals with IPV history may struggle to negotiate safer sex, IPV also warrants consideration as a qualifying criterion among BMSM for pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP).

Performing all major surgical procedures robotically will prolong wait times for surgery

This article aimed to assess the burden of scheduling major urologic oncology procedures if all cases were performed robotically and to determine whether this would increase the time a patient would have to wait for surgery. We retrospectively determined the number of prostatectomies, radical nephrectomies, partial nephrectomies, and cystectomies at a single institution for one calendar year. A hypothetical situation was then constructed where all procedures were performed robotically. Using the allotted number of days that each surgeon was able to schedule robotic procedures, we analyzed the amount of time it would take to schedule and complete all cases. Five fellowship-trained surgeons were included in the study and accounted for 317 surgical cases. Three of the surgeons had dedicated robotic surgery (RS) time (block time), while two surgeons scheduled when there was non-dedicated RS time (open time) available. If all cases were performed robotically an additional 32 days would be needed, which could significantly increase the wait time to surgery. The limited number of robotic systems available in most hospitals creates a bottleneck effect; whereby increasing the number of cases would considerably lengthen the waiting time patients have for surgery. As RS becomes increasingly more commonplace in urology and other surgical fields, this could create a significant problem for health care systems.

Comparison of Urinary Tract Infection Rates Associated with Transurethral Catheterization, Suprapubic Tube and Clean Intermittent Catheterization in the Postoperative Setting: A Network Meta-Analysis

PURPOSE

We performed a network meta-analysis of available randomized, controlled trials to elucidate the risks of urinary tract infection associated with transurethral catheterization, suprapubic tubes and intermittent catheterization in the postoperative setting.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

PubMed®, EMBASE® and Google Scholar™ searches were performed for eligible randomized, controlled trials from January 1980 to July 2015 that included patients who underwent transurethral catheterization, suprapubic tube placement or intermittent catheterization at the time of surgery and catheterization lasting up to postoperative day 30. The primary outcome of comparison was the urinary tract infection rate via a network meta-analysis with random effects model using the netmeta package in R 3.2 (www.r-project.org/).

RESULTS

Included in analysis were 14 randomized, controlled trials in a total of 1,391 patients. Intermittent catheterization and suprapubic tubes showed no evidence of decreased urinary tract infection rates compared to transurethral catheterization. Suprapubic tubes and intermittent catheterization had comparable urinary tract infection rates (OR 0.903, 95% CI 0.479-2.555). On subgroup analysis of 10 randomized, controlled trials with available mean catheterization duration data in a total of 928 patients intermittent catheterization and suprapubic tube were associated with significantly decreased risk of urinary tract infection compared to transurethral catheterization when catheterization duration was greater than 5 days (OR 0.173, 95% CI 0.073-0.412 and OR 0.142, 95% CI 0.073-0.276, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Transurethral catheterization is not associated with an increased urinary tract infection risk compared to suprapubic tubes and intermittent catheterization if catheterization duration is 5 days or less. However, a suprapubic tube or intermittent catheterization is associated with a lower rate of urinary tract infection if longer term catheterization is expected in the postoperative period.

Emergency Department Vital Signs and Outcomes After Discharge

OBJECTIVE

Vital signs are critical markers of illness severity in the emergency department (ED). Providers need to understand the abnormal vital signs in older adults that are problematic. We hypothesized that in patients age > 65 years discharged from the ED, there are abnormal vital signs that are associated with an admission to an inpatient bed within 7 days of discharge.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study using data from a regional integrated health system of members age > 65 years during the years 2009 to 2010. We used univariate contingency tables to assess the relationship between hospital admission within 7 days of discharge and vital sign (including systolic blood pressure [sBP], heart rate [HR], body temperature, and pulse oximetry [SpO₂ ] values measured closest to discharge) using standard thresholds for abnormal and thresholds derived from the study data.

RESULTS

Of 104,025 ED discharges, 4,638 (4.5%) were followed by inpatient admission within 7 days. Vital signs had a greater odds of admission beyond a single cutoff. The vital signs with at least twice the odds of admission were sBP < 97 mm Hg (odds ratio [OR] = 2.02, 95% CI = 1.57-2.60), HR > 101 beats/min (OR = 2.00 95% CI = 1.75-2.29), body temperature > 37.3°C (OR = 2.14, 95% CI = 1.90-2.41), and pulse oximetry < 92 SpO₂ (OR = 2.04, 95% CI = 1.55-2.68). Patients with two vital sign abnormalities per the analysis had the highest odds of admission. A majority of patients discharged with abnormal vital signs per the analysis were not admitted within 7 days of ED discharge.

CONCLUSION

While we found a majority of patients discharged with abnormal vital signs as defined by the analysis, not to be admitted after discharge, we identified vital signs associated with at least twice the odds of admission.

A Bayesian hierarchical model for discrete choice data in health care

In discrete choice experiments, patients are presented with sets of health states described by various attributes and asked to make choices from among them. Discrete choice experiments allow health care researchers to study the preferences of individual patients by eliciting trade-offs between different aspects of health-related quality of life. However, many discrete choice experiments yield data with incomplete ranking information and sparsity due to the limited number of choice sets presented to each patient, making it challenging to estimate patient preferences. Moreover, methods to identify outliers in discrete choice data are lacking. We develop a Bayesian hierarchical random effects rank-ordered multinomial logit model for discrete choice data. Missing ranks are accounted for by marginalizing over all possible permutations of unranked alternatives to estimate individual patient preferences, which are modeled as a function of patient covariates. We provide a Bayesian version of relative attribute importance, and adapt the use of the conditional predictive ordinate to identify outlying choice sets and outlying individuals with unusual preferences compared to the population. The model is applied to data from a study using a discrete choice experiment to estimate individual patient preferences for health states related to prostate cancer treatment.

Differentiating Nonoccupational Postexposure Prophylaxis Seroconverters and Non-Seroconverters in a Community-Based Clinic in Los Angeles, California

BACKGROUND

Nonoccupational postexposure prophylaxis (nPEP) is a 28-day regimen of antiretroviral medications taken within 72 hours of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) exposure to prevent HIV acquisition. Although nPEP has been recommended since 1998, few studies have analyzed the characteristics that distinguish nPEP failures (seroconverters) and successes (non-seroconverters).

METHODS

This retrospective study analyzed all nPEP courses prompted by sexual exposure that were prescribed at the Los Angeles LGBT Center between March 2010 and July 2014. Fisher exact tests and logistic regressions were used to determine characteristics that distinguished nPEP seroconverters from non-seroconverters.

RESULTS

Of the nPEP courses administered, 1744 had a follow-up visit for HIV testing within 24 weeks of exposure and 17 individuals seroconverted. Seven reported a known re-exposure, 8 self-reported only condom-protected sex subsequent to the initial exposure, and 2 reported abstinence since the exposure. In multivariable analyses, seroconverters were more likely than non-seroconverters to report methamphetamine use, incomplete medication adherence, and nPEP initiation later in the 72-hour window.

CONCLUSIONS

Nonoccupational postexposure prophylaxis is an important emergency tool for HIV prevention. Our findings corroborate that timing of the initial nPEP dose is an important predictor of seroconversion. Although the current study did not offer the initial nPEP dose at the beginning of the visit, use of this fast-track dosing schedule will ensure that the first dose is taken as early as possible postexposure and may lower the likelihood for seroconversion. Furthermore, we recommend systematic screening for substance use because these individuals may be well suited for pre-exposure prophylaxis given their sustained risk.

Estimating the Cost of Care for Emergency Department Syncope Patients: Comparison of Three Models

INTRODUCTION

We sought to compare three hospital cost-estimation models for patients undergoing evaluation for unexplained syncope using hospital cost data. Developing such a model would allow researchers to assess the value of novel clinical algorithms for syncope management.

METHODS

We collected complete health services data, including disposition, testing, and length of stay (LOS), on 67 adult patients (age 60 years and older) who presented to the emergency department (ED) with syncope at a single hospital. Patients were excluded if a serious medical condition was identified. We created three hospital cost-estimation models to estimate facility costs: V1, unadjusted Medicare payments for observation and/or hospital admission; V2: modified Medicare payment, prorated by LOS in calendar days; and V3: modified Medicare payment, prorated by LOS in hours. Total hospital costs included unadjusted Medicare payments for diagnostic testing and estimated facility costs. We plotted these estimates against actual cost data from the hospital finance department, and performed correlation and regression analyses.

RESULTS

Of the three models, V3 consistently outperformed the others with regard to correlation and goodness of fit. The Pearson correlation coefficient for V3 was 0.88 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.81, 0.92) with an R-square value of 0.77 and a linear regression coefficient of 0.87 (95% CI 0.76, 0.99).

CONCLUSION

Using basic health services data, it is possible to accurately estimate hospital costs for older adults undergoing a hospital-based evaluation for unexplained syncope. This methodology could help assess the potential economic impact of implementing novel clinical algorithms for ED syncope.