Computed tomography-based nomogram of Siewert type II/III adenocarcinoma of esophagogastric junction to predict response to docetaxel, oxaliplatin and S-1

BACKGROUND

Neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) has become the standard care for advanced adenocarcinoma of esophagogastric junction (AEG), although a part of the patients cannot benefit from NAC. There are no models based on baseline computed tomography (CT) to predict response of Siewert type II or III AEG to NAC with docetaxel, oxaliplatin and S-1 (DOS).

AIM

To develop a CT-based nomogram to predict response of Siewert type II/III AEG to NAC with DOS.

METHODS

One hundred and twenty-eight consecutive patients with confirmed Siewert type II/III AEG underwent CT before and after three cycles of NAC with DOS, and were randomly and consecutively assigned to the training cohort (TC) (n = 94) and the validation cohort (VC) (n = 34). Therapeutic effect was assessed by disease-control rate and progressive disease according to the Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (version 1.1) criteria. Possible prognostic factors associated with responses after DOS treatment including Siewert classification, gross tumor volume (GTV), and cT and cN stages were evaluated using pretherapeutic CT data in addition to sex and age. Univariate and multivariate analyses of CT and clinical features in the TC were performed to determine independent factors associated with response to DOS. A nomogram was established based on independent factors to predict the response. The predictive performance of the nomogram was evaluated by Concordance index (C-index), calibration and receiver operating characteristics curve in the TC and VC.

RESULTS

Univariate analysis showed that Siewert type (52/55 vs 29/39, P = 0.005), pretherapeutic cT stage (57/62 vs 24/32, P = 0.028), GTV (47.3 ± 27.4 vs 73.2 ± 54.3, P = 0.040) were significantly associated with response to DOS in the TC. Multivariate analysis of the TC also showed that the pretherapeutic cT stage, GTV and Siewert type were independent predictive factors related to response to DOS (odds ratio = 4.631, 1.027 and 7.639, respectively; all P < 0.05). The nomogram developed with these independent factors showed an excellent performance to predict response to DOS in the TC and VC (C-index: 0.838 and 0.824), with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.838 and 0.824, respectively. The calibration curves showed that the practical and predicted response to DOS effectively coincided.

CONCLUSION

A novel nomogram developed with pretherapeutic cT stage, GTV and Siewert type predicted the response of Siewert type II/III AEG to NAC with DOS.

Circulating palmitoyl sphingomyelin levels predict the 10-year increased risk of cardiovascular disease death in Chinese adults: findings from the Da Qing Diabetes Study

BACKGROUND

Higher levels of palmitoyl sphingomyelin (PSM, synonymous with sphingomyelin 16:0) are associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in people with diabetes. Whether circulating PSM levels can practically predict the long-term risk of CVD and all-cause death remains unclear. This study aimed to investigate whether circulating PSM is a real predictor of CVD death in Chinese adults with or without diabetes.

METHODS

A total of 286 and 219 individuals with and without diabetes, respectively, from the original Da Qing Diabetes Study were enrolled. Blood samples collected in 2009 were used as a baseline to assess circulating PSM levels. The outcomes of CVD and all-cause death were followed up from 2009 to 2020, and 178 participants died, including 87 deaths due to CVD. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate HRs and their 95% CIs for the outcomes.

RESULTS

Fractional polynomial regression analysis showed a linear association between baseline circulating PSM concentration (log-2 transformed) and the risk of all-cause and CVD death (p < 0.001), but not non-CVD death (p > 0.05), in all participants after adjustment for confounders. When the participants were stratified by PSM-tertile, the highest tertile, regardless of diabetes, had a higher incidence of CVD death (41.5 vs. 14.7 and 22.2 vs. 2.9 per 1000 person-years in patients with and without diabetes, respectively, all log-rank p < 0.01). Individuals with diabetes in the highest tertile group had a higher risk of CVD death than those in the lowest tertile (HR = 2.73; 95%CI, 1.20-6.22).

CONCLUSIONS

Elevated PSM levels are significantly associated with a higher 10-year risk of CVD death, but not non-CVD death, in Chinese adults with diabetes. These findings suggest that PSM is a potentially useful long-term predictor of CVD death in individuals with diabetes.

MSCAN: multi-scale self- and cross-attention network for RNA methylation site prediction

BACKGROUND

Epi-transcriptome regulation through post-transcriptional RNA modifications is essential for all RNA types. Precise recognition of RNA modifications is critical for understanding their functions and regulatory mechanisms. However, wet experimental methods are often costly and time-consuming, limiting their wide range of applications. Therefore, recent research has focused on developing computational methods, particularly deep learning (DL). Bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM), convolutional neural network (CNN), and the transformer have demonstrated achievements in modification site prediction. However, BiLSTM cannot achieve parallel computation, leading to a long training time, CNN cannot learn the dependencies of the long distance of the sequence, and the Transformer lacks information interaction with sequences at different scales. This insight underscores the necessity for continued research and development in natural language processing (NLP) and DL to devise an enhanced prediction framework that can effectively address the challenges presented.

RESULTS

This study presents a multi-scale self- and cross-attention network (MSCAN) to identify the RNA methylation site using an NLP and DL way. Experiment results on twelve RNA modification sites (m6A, m1A, m5C, m5U, m6Am, m7G, Ψ, I, Am, Cm, Gm, and Um) reveal that the area under the receiver operating characteristic of MSCAN obtains respectively 98.34%, 85.41%, 97.29%, 96.74%, 99.04%, 79.94%, 76.22%, 65.69%, 92.92%, 92.03%, 95.77%, 89.66%, which is better than the state-of-the-art prediction model. This indicates that the model has strong generalization capabilities. Furthermore, MSCAN reveals a strong association among different types of RNA modifications from an experimental perspective. A user-friendly web server for predicting twelve widely occurring human RNA modification sites (m6A, m1A, m5C, m5U, m6Am, m7G, Ψ, I, Am, Cm, Gm, and Um) is available at http://47.242.23.141/MSCAN/index.php .

CONCLUSIONS

A predictor framework has been developed through binary classification to predict RNA methylation sites.

Delayed complete remission of hemifacial spasms following microvascular decompression and the implications for optimal time of revision surgery

BACKGROUND

Microvascular decompression (MVD) is an effective method for directly treating hemifacial spasms (HFS). The timing for the consideration of failed MVD and reoperation has been paradoxical.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to investigate the delayed complete remission of HFS in terms of prevalence rate, duration between surgery and delayed complete remission, and predictive factors.

METHODS

A hundred patients with HFS who underwent MVD from 2012-2021 were enrolled in the study. All HFS occurred as a result of compression of the facial nerve by adjacent blood vessels. Clinical information, intraoperative findings, and surgical outcomes were incorporated for data analysis.

RESULTS

In the first week after MVD, 67 of 100 patients achieved complete remission of HFS, while the remaining 33 had incomplete remission. In long-term follow-up, 26 individuals gradually developed delayed complete remission with a median duration of 9.1 months. Finally, 86 of 100 patients achieved complete long-term remission. Recurrent HFS and incomplete remission were found in 7 and 7 patients, respectively. Factors associated with postoperative complete remission in the first week were a severe degree of facial nerve compression (p = 0.047, OR 2.75, 95% CI 1.01-7.40), with long-term complete remission was left-sided HFS (p = 0.012, OR 5.73, 95% CI 1.47-22.36), and with the appearance of delayed complete remission was the prolonged duration of HFS at least 3 years before MVD (p = 0.046, OR 3.75, 95% CI 1.03-13.76). Transient facial paresis was found in 11% of the patients. Of them, facial nerve function recovered completely in all cases.

CONCLUSIONS

A delayed complete remission of HFS could be expected in long-term follow-up after MVD and is probably related to a longer duration of HFS before surgery. Unnecessary reoperation should be avoided in the early years following the first surgery.

Heterogeneously elevated branched-chain/aromatic amino acids among new-onset type-2 diabetes mellitus patients are potentially skewed diabetes predictors

BACKGROUND

The lack of specific predictors for type-2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) severely impacts early intervention/prevention efforts. Elevated branched-chain amino acids (BCAAs: Isoleucine, leucine, valine) and aromatic amino acids (AAAs: Tyrosine, tryptophan, phenylalanine)) show high sensitivity and specificity in predicting diabetes in animals and predict T2DM 10-19 years before T2DM onset in clinical studies. However, improvement is needed to support its clinical utility.

AIM

To evaluate the effects of body mass index (BMI) and sex on BCAAs/AAAs in new-onset T2DM individuals with varying body weight.

METHODS

Ninety-seven new-onset T2DM patients (< 12 mo) differing in BMI [normal weight (NW), n = 33, BMI = 22.23 ± 1.60; overweight, n = 42, BMI = 25.9 ± 1.07; obesity (OB), n = 22, BMI = 31.23 ± 2.31] from the First People's Hospital of Yunnan Province, Kunming, China, were studied. One-way and 2-way ANOVAs were conducted to determine the effects of BMI and sex on BCAAs/AAAs.

RESULTS

Fasting serum AAAs, BCAAs, glutamate, and alanine were greater and high-density lipoprotein (HDL) was lower (P < 0.05, each) in OB-T2DM patients than in NW-T2DM patients, especially in male OB-T2DM patients. Arginine, histidine, leucine, methionine, and lysine were greater in male patients than in female patients. Moreover, histidine, alanine, glutamate, lysine, valine, methionine, leucine, isoleucine, tyrosine, phenylalanine, and tryptophan were significantly correlated with abdominal adiposity, body weight and BMI, whereas isoleucine, leucine and phenylalanine were negatively correlated with HDL.

CONCLUSION

Heterogeneously elevated amino acids, especially BCAAs/AAAs, across new-onset T2DM patients in differing BMI categories revealed a potentially skewed prediction of T2DM development. The higher BCAA/AAA levels in obese T2DM patients would support T2DM prediction in obese individuals, whereas the lower levels of BCAAs/AAAs in NW-T2DM individuals may underestimate T2DM risk in NW individuals. This potentially skewed T2DM prediction should be considered when BCAAs/AAAs are to be used as the T2DM predictor.

Predictors of a Good Diuretic Response and Administration Methods for Carperitide in Patients With Acute Heart Failure

PURPOSE

In Japan, carperitide has been recommended for the treatment of pulmonary congestion in patients with acute heart failure. Identifying useful indicators to support the decision to administer carperitide and the optimal timing of administration may lead to better improvement of pulmonary congestion. Therefore, we investigated the factors associated with good diuretic response to carperitide in patients with acute heart failure and the optimal timing of carperitide administration.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study investigated 293 hospitalized patients who were diagnosed with acute heart failure and treated with carperitide at the Department of Cardiology, Showa University Fujigaoka Hospital. The primary endpoint was the diuretic response to carperitide. Patients with urine output ≥100 mL/h were defined as the good diuretic response group, and those with a urine output <100 mL/h during the first 6 hours of carperitide administration were defined as the poor diuretic response group. Multivariate analysis was used to examine the predictors of good diuretic response. The relationship between the time from intravenous furosemide to carperitide administration and urine output was also investigated.

FINDINGS

The patients' median age was 77 (range: 28-99) years, and 75.5% had New York Heart Association stage IV acute heart failure. The median urine output within 6 hours of carperitide administration was 104.5 (range: 6.6-1571.3) mL/h, and 118 patients (53.6%) showed a good diuretic response. Significant predictors of good diuretic response were age < 75 years [odds ratio (OR) 4.186; 95% confidence interval (CI), 2.129-8.230; P < 0.001], no prior use of loop diuretics (OR 2.155; 95% CI, 1.104-4.207; P = 0.024), blood urea nitrogen <20 mg/dL (OR 2.637; 95% CI, 1.340-5.190; P = 0.005), and white blood cell count <8.6 × 109/L (OR 3.162; 95% CI, 1.628-6.140; P = 0.001). The median urine output in the group with <2 hours between intravenous furosemide and carperitide administration was significantly higher than that in the group with an interval >6 hours [127.3; interquartile range (IQR), 77.6-216.2 mL/h vs. 66.2; IQR. 51.8-114.8 mL/h; P = 0.012).

IMPLICATIONS

The 4 predictors (age, no prior use of loop diuretics, blood urea nitrogen, and white blood cell count) of good diuretic response are useful indicators to support decision-making for carperitide administration. Additionally, the administration of carperitide within 2 hours of intravenous furosemide may lead to the improvement of pulmonary congestion.

Factors Predicting Prolonged Mechanical Ventilation in Guillain-Barré Syndrome

BACKGROUND

Up to 30% of patients with Guillain-Barré syndrome require mechanical ventilation and 5% die due to acute complications of mechanical ventilation. There is a considerable group of patients that will need prolonged mechanical ventilation (considered as >14 days) and should be considered for early tracheostomy. The objective of this study is to identify risk factors for prolonged mechanical ventilation.

METHODS

We prospectively analyzed patients with Guillain-Barré diagnosis with versus without prolonged mechanical ventilation. We considered clinical and electrophysiological characteristics and analyzed factors associated with prolonged mechanical ventilation.

RESULTS

Three hundred and three patients were included; 29% required mechanical ventilation. When comparing the groups, patients with prolonged invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) have a lower score on the Medical Research Council score (19.5 ± 16.2 vs 27.4 ± 17.5, p = 0.03) and a higher frequency of dysautonomia (42.3% vs 19.4%, p = 0.037), as well as lower amplitudes of the distal compound muscle action potential (CMAP) of the median nerve [0.37 (RIQ 0.07-2.25) vs. 3.9 (RIQ1.2-6.4), p = <0.001] and ulnar nerve [0.37 (RIQ0.0-3.72) vs 1.5 (RIQ0.3-6.6), p = <0.001], and higher frequency of severe axonal damage in these nerves (distal CMAP ≤ 1.0 mV). Through binary logistic regression, severe axonal degeneration of the median nerve is an independent risk factor for prolonged IMV OR 4.9 (95%CI 1.1-21.5) p = 0.03, AUC of 0.774, (95%CI 0.66-0.88), p = < 0.001.

CONCLUSIONS

Severe median nerve damage is an independent risk factor for prolonged mechanical ventilation.

Can we predict the incidence of high-grade Clavien-Dindo complications in patients with forgotten encrusted stents undergoing endourologic management?

Objective

Ureteral stents are customarily inserted to facilitate urinary drainage, but they come with their own glitches of being forgotten and/or encrusted leading to serious consequences. The present study aimed to report the complications in patients with forgotten and encrusted stents according to the Clavien-Dindo system specific to urological procedures and identify the factors leading to high-grade (Clavien-Dindo Grade 4A or above) complications.

Methods

The hospital records of patients with forgotten encrusted double-J stents over a period of 8 years were reviewed. The parameters recorded included patient demographics, indwelling time, need for percutaneous nephrostomy, hemodialysis, urine culture, blood culture, total blood counts, serum creatinine, radiologic findings, management techniques, number of surgical interventions, modified Clavien-Dindo complications, follow-up, and mortality, if any.

Results

Forty patients were included in the study. The median age was 52 (range 6-85) years. Of the total, 25 (62.5%) patients had a "significant" stent load; 31 (77.5%) had renal failure or acute kidney injury on presentation; 19 (47.5%) patients had sepsis at presentation. Among the patients presented with sepsis, 11 (57.9%) patients demonstrated a positive urine culture; and 7/11 (63.6%) patients exhibited pan-resistant organisms. Twelve out of 40 (30.0%) patients in our series developed high-grade Clavien-Dindo complications. On univariate analysis, sepsis at presentation (p=0.007), stent load (p=0.031), diabetes (p=0.023), positive urine culture (p=0.007), and stent indwelling time of more than 1 year (p=0.031) were found to be significant. On multivariate logistic regression analysis, sepsis at presentation (p=0.017) and positive urine culture (p=0.016) were significant predictors for high-grade complications.

Conclusion

It is prudent to identify specific risk factors, namely sepsis at presentation and positive urine culture to triage and optimize these patients before surgical management.

Exploring the relationship between admission pulse pressure and clinical features in patients with spontaneous supratentorial intracerebral hemorrhage

Elevated pulse pressure is commonly observed in cardiovascular diseases and serves as an independent risk factor and predictor of cardiac mortality. However, the role of pulse pressure in patients with spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) remains uncertain. This study aimed to investigate the association between admission pulse pressure and clinical characteristics, including in-hospital outcomes, in ICH patients. We retrospectively analyzed the data of 292 ICH patients, categorizing them into two groups based on admission wide pulse pressure: > 100 mmHg (n = 60) and ≤ 100 mmHg (n = 232). Clinical characteristics and in-hospital outcomes were compared between the groups, and multivariate logistic regression was performed to identify independent factors. Patients with wide pulse pressure were older, had lower Glasgow Coma Scale, larger intraparenchymal hematomas, more pronounced midline shifts, and higher rates of intraventricular hematoma extension and hydrocephalus. These patients also experienced higher frequencies of craniotomy or craniectomy and longer hospital stays. Multivariate logistic regression revealed that pulse pressure > 100 mmHg was significantly associated with increased in-hospital mortality (odds ratio 4.31, 95% confidence interval 1.12-16.62, p = 0.03), but not with a modified Rankin Scale score of 4-6. In conclusion, our investigation demonstrates a significant relationship between admission pulse pressure and severe clinical characteristics in ICH patients. Importantly, a wider pulse pressure is linked to heightened in-hospital mortality. These results underscore the necessity for customized strategies to predict patient outcomes in this population. Further research is essential to explore potential therapeutic interventions targeting pulse pressure to improve clinical outcomes for ICH patients.

Factors that predict compliance in a virtual cardiac rehabilitation program

BACKGROUND

Despite the well-established benefits of cardiac rehabilitation (CR) for patients with cardiovascular disease (CVD), participation in CR remain low. Virtual CR programs present a unique opportunity to promote utilization. To date, few virtual CR cohorts have been analyzed for compliance. This study aims to determine factors that predict compliance within a large virtual CR program in the United States.

METHODS

We analyzed 1409 patients enrolled in the Kaiser Permanente Mid-Atlantic States Virtual CR program that consists of 12 CR sessions via telephone. Demographic characteristics, as well as body weight, blood pressure, HbA1c level, and smoking status were collected at admission. Patients were further classified by CVD diagnosis codes. Compliance was defined as at least 75% (9/12 sessions) attendance. Data was analyzed using simple and multiple regression models with significance defined as P < 0.05.

RESULTS

Age was the single strongest predictor for virtual CR compliance (adjusted R2 = 0.58; P < 0.001), and non-compliant patients were younger. HbA1C level, CVD diagnosis codes, and smoking status each moderately predicted compliance (adjusted R2 = 0.48, 0.42, and 0.31, respectively; P < 0.001). Smoking and HbA1C level combined in a multiple regression model significantly improved prediction of compliance (adjusted R2 = 0.79, P < 0.01). Sex, baseline weight or hypertension were not significant predictors of CR compliance.

CONCLUSIONS

Age, diabetes, CVD diagnoses, smoking status at admission are independent predictors of compliance in a large virtual CR program. Targeted intervention could be designed accordingly to improve CR compliance.

Associations between spinal flexibility and bracing outcomes in adolescent idiopathic scoliosis: a literature review

OBJECTIVES

To identify the existing assessment methods used to measure the spinal flexibility of adolescents with idiopathic scoliosis before bracing and to evaluate the predictive effect of spinal flexibility on bracing outcomes.

METHODS

A broad literature search was performed in the PubMed, Web of Science, EMBASE, CINAHL, Scopus, and Cochrane Library databases to obtain relevant information about spinal flexibility and bracing outcomes. All literature was retrieved by October 14, 2023. The inclusion and exclusion criteria were meticulously determined. The quality of each included study and the level of evidence were evaluated by the Quality in Prognosis Studies (QUIPS) method and the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) system, respectively.

RESULTS

After screening 1863 articles retrieved from databases, a total of 14 studies with 2261 subjects were eligible for the final analysis in this review. Overall, nine methods of flexibility assessment were identified, including supine radiographs, supine lateral bending radiographs, lateral bending radiographs but without clear positions, hanging radiographs, fulcrum bending physical method, and ultrasound imaging in the positions of supine, prone, sitting with side bending and prone with side bending. In addition, five studies demonstrated that flexibility had a strong correlation with in-brace correction, and eleven studies illustrated that spinal flexibility was a predictive factor of the bracing outcomes of initial in-brace Cobb angle, initial in-brace correction rate, curve progression, and curve regression. The results of GRADE demonstrated a moderate-evidence rating for the predictive value of spinal flexibility.

CONCLUSION

Supine radiography was the most prevalent method for measuring spinal flexibility at the pre-brace stage. Spinal flexibility was strongly correlated with the in-brace Cobb angle or correction rate, and moderate evidence supported that spinal flexibility could predict bracing outcomes.

Cortical thickness of the inferior parietal lobule as a potential predictor of relapse in men with alcohol dependence

Alcohol dependence is a disorder with a high recurrence rate that leads to a considerable public health burden. The risk of relapse appears to be related to a complex interplay of multiple factors. Herein, we aimed to explore the potential neural predictors of relapse in Chinese male patients with alcohol dependence. This study enrolled 58 male patients with alcohol dependence who had undergone acute detoxification. General demographic information and clinical features were collected. Magnetic resonance imaging data were used to measure cortical thickness across 34 regions of the brain. Patients were followed up at six months, and 51 patients completed the follow-up visit. These patients were divided into a relapser and an abstainer group. A binary logistic regression analysis was performed to investigate the potential risk factors of relapse. Compared to abstainers, relapsers showed higher inattention and non-planning impulsivity on the 11th version of the Barratt Impulsive Scale. The cortical thicknesses of the inferior-parietal lobules were significantly higher in abstainers compared with those in relapsers. Furthermore, binary logistic regression analysis showed that the thickness of the inferior parietal lobule predicted relapse, and lower non-planning impulse was a protective factor against relapse. Relapsers show poorer impulse control than abstainers, and structural magnetic resonance imaging revealed a decreased thickness of the inferior parietal lobule in relapsers. Our results indicate the thickness of the inferior parietal lobule as a potential relapse predictor in male patients with alcohol dependence.

Inflow Angle and Height-Width Ratio are Predictors of Incomplete Occlusion at One and Two Years After Flow Diverter Treatment for Small- and Medium-Sized Internal Carotid Artery Aneurysms

OBJECTIVE

We investigated the association between the inflow angle of aneurysms and their occlusion status at 1 and 2 years after flow diverter (FD) treatment.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed 42 consecutive patients from a single center with 43 untreated, unruptured internal carotid artery (ICA) proximal to communicating segment, saccular aneurysms sized <12 mm.

RESULTS

At 1 year posttreatment, the complete occlusion (CO) rate was 58.1%. On univariate analyses, the proportion of inflow angle >90° was significantly lower in the CO group than in the incomplete occlusion group (20.0% VS. 83.3%; P < 0.001). The CO incidence decreased with a height-width (H/W) ratio of <1.2 (P = 0.059). On multivariate analysis, an H/W ratio of <1.2 (odds ratio [OR], 0.076; P = 0.027) and an inflow angle of >90° (OR, 0.020; P = 0.0011) significantly influenced CO at 1 year post FD. At 2 years posttreatment, the CO rate was 76.3% (29/38 cases with available follow-up data). On univariate analyses, in the CO group compared to the incomplete occlusion group, the proportion of H/W ratio <1.2 was significantly lower (P = 0.005) and the proportion of inflow angle >90° was significantly lower (P = 0.021); aneurysm dome size tended to be larger (8.5 mm vs. 7.1 mm; P = 0.080). On multivariate analysis, an H/W ratio <1.2 (OR, 0.042; P = 0.015) and an inflow angle >90° (OR: 0.088; P = 0.031) significantly influenced CO at 2 years post FD.

CONCLUSIONS

The inflow angle of >90° and H/W ratio <1.2 may significantly influence the CO rate in small- or medium-sized internal carotid artery aneurysms 1 and 2 years post FD.

Induction of labor after one previous cesarean: Predictors of vaginal birth

Objective

To identify independent predictors for vaginal delivery after induction of labor after one cesarean (IOLAC).

Study design

In this retrospective cohort study, the electronic medical record of 19064 women who delivered from January 2018-September 2022 in a university hospital in Malaysia were individually searched to identify cases of IOLAC. Preselected data points on characteristics and the outcome of mode of delivery were retrieved. Bivariate analysis was performed to identify predictor characteristics for the dichotomous outcomes of vaginal delivery vs unplanned cesarean delivery. Variables with crude p < 0.05 were incorporated into a multivariable binary logistic regression analysis to identify independent predictors of vaginal delivery after IOLAC.

Results

819 IOLAC cases were identified. There were 465/819 (56.5 %) unplanned cesareans deliveries. Of the 14 selected characteristics, eight had p < 0.05 on bivariate analysis. After adjustment, six characteristics, body mass index, height, ethnicity, parity, previous cesarean indication and Bishop score were independently predictive of vaginal birth but not maternal age or method of labor induction. Birthweight, labor induction indication, gestational age, haemoglobin level, diabetes and hypertension in pregnancy were not significant at the level of bivariate analysis.

Conclusion

Obesity, short stature, no prior vaginal delivery, previous cesarean indicated by failure to progress, unfavorable Bishop score and ethnicity were independent predictors for unplanned cesarean after IOLAC. These predictors should help guide women and their care providers in their shared decision-making about IOLAC.

Correlation between ischemic stroke topography and female urinary incontinence

AIM

To investigate the association between ischemic stroke topography and the onset of urinary incontinence (UI); to evaluate predictors of post-stroke UI in women.

METHOD

We prospectively followed up a cohort of women with ischemic stroke confirmed by clinical and computed tomography (CT) or magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans findings. Participants were subjected to interview, clinical evaluation, and urodynamic study if needed at 6 months post-stroke and divided in continent and incontinent groups. Non-parametric tests compared the baseline characteristics among the groups and determined association between post-stroke UI and the brain sites of injury. Logistic regression analysis determined predictors of post-stroke UI. Significance level at 5 % was set.

RESULTS

162 S-women were included: 128 (79 %) continent and 34 (21 %) incontinent. Frontal lobe lesions were higher in the incontinent group (82.9 % versus 51.2 %, p = 0.001); lesions in the parietal lobe and the left cerebral hemisphere were higher in the continent group (40.9 % versus 20 %, p = 0.023; and 61.4 % versus 40 %, p = 0.024, respectively). Frontal lobe injury [RR 3.68 (CI 1.2-11.2)], body mass index (BMI) [RR1.16 (CI 1.062-1.266)] and number of vaginal deliveries [RR 1.358 (CI 1.163-1.585)] are risk factors for post-stroke UI. Left parietal lobe injury is less likely to occur in continent women after 6 months [RR 0.168 (CI 0.029-0.981; p = 0.048)].

CONCLUSION

There is a correlation between the topography of the ischemic stroke and the onset of UI. Frontal lobe lesion, BMI and number of vaginal deliveries are predictors of post-stroke UI.

Intraventricular Hemorrhage Score as a Robust Predictor for Shunt-Dependent Hydrocephalus After Spontaneous Supratentorial Intracerebral Hemorrhage

OBJECTIVE

Spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) is a common stroke subtype, and patients often develop intraventricular hemorrhage (IVH) and hydrocephalus (H). It is essential to promptly recognize factors that can predict the need for permanent cerebrospinal fluid shunt. This study aims to assess the potential of the IVH score as a predictor for shunt-dependent H in ICH patients.

METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed data from 296 patients with spontaneous supratentorial ICH. Clinical and radiographic data were analyzed. IVH scores were calculated based on initial brain computed tomography scans. A multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed to identify independent predictors of shunt-dependent H, and a receiver operating characteristic curve was generated for the IVH score.

RESULTS

Among the 296 ICH patients, 25 (8.4%) required permanent cerebrospinal fluid shunt placement. The IVH score was identified as the sole significant independent predictor of shunt-dependent H (P < 0.01), with an odds ratio of 1.13 and a 95% confidence interval between 1.04 and 1.22. With each unit increase in the IVH score, the likelihood of shunt dependence rises by 13%. The area under the curve for the IVH score as a predictor of shunt-dependent H was 0.818. With an IVH score threshold of 6.5, the sensitivity was 80.0%, and the specificity was 26.6%.

CONCLUSIONS

The IVH score is a valuable predictor of shunt-dependent H in patients with spontaneous supratentorial ICH. Its simplicity allows for easy integration into routine clinical practice, aiding in better patient risk stratification and informed decision-making regarding permanent CSF shunt placement.

The prognostic nutrition index is a predictor for long-term outcomes after revascularization in adult moyamoya disease

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

The prognostic nutrition index (PNI) has been associated with the prognosis of various medical disorders. This study aimed to explore the correlation between PNI and the long-term outcomes of adult patients afflicted with moyamoya disease (MMD).

METHODS

This prospective study initially employed 138 adult patients diagnosed with MMD. After excluding 15 patients who did not meet the criteria, a total of 123 patients were included. Participants were divided into three groups based on the tertile of change in the PNI score. Statistical analysis compared clinical information and lab tests among the groups. The study was conducted between July 1 and December 31, 2019.

RESULTS

After adjusting for multiple variables, patients in the upper two tertiles (tertiles 2-3) exhibited a significantly lower risk of adverse long-term outcomes compared to those in the lowest tertile (tertile 1) (OR, 0.089; 95% CI, 0.009-0.895; P = 0.040). Furthermore, adding PNI tertile to traditional risk factors substantially improved predicting adverse long-term outcomes (net reclassification improvement: 98.03%, P = 0.000; integrated discrimination improvement: 4.65%, P = 0.030). However, there was no statistically significant difference between the first PNI tertile (tertile 1) and the upper two tertiles (tertiles 2-3) in the Kaplan-Meier curve of stroke incidence (log-rank test, P = 0.244).

CONCLUSIONS

A higher PNI level was significantly associated with a reduced risk of unfavorable long-term outcomes. Nevertheless, the PNI score did not predict stroke recurrence during extended follow-up. This study provides insights into a potential predictor of adverse long-term outcomes after revascularization in MMD patients.

REGISTRATION NUMBER

ChiCTR2000031412.

Association between P-wave terminal force in lead V1 and extent of left atrial low-voltage substrate in older patients with paroxysmal atrial fibrillation

BACKGROUND

The P-wave terminal force in lead V1 (PTFV1) is a marker of cardiomyopathy and risk of atrial fibrillation (AF). Low-voltage area (LVA) in the left atrium (LA), which indicates underlying atrial fibrosis, could predict AF recurrence. This study aimed to investigate the correlation between PTFV1 and LVA in older patients with paroxysmal AF.

METHODS

From May 1, 2020, to October 31, 2021, a total of 162 patients aged 65-80 years with paroxysmal AF who underwent index ablation procedures were enrolled. PTFV1 was measured in sinus rhythm (SR) using 12-lead electrocardiograms prior to the ablation. Abnormal PTFV1 was defined as a ≥ 4 mVms depression. Additional LVA ablation beyond circumferential pulmonary vein isolation (CPVI) was performed if LVAs were found.

RESULTS

Among the 162 patients, 88 had a normal PTFV1 and 74 had an abnormal PTFV1 prior to ablation. There was a significant difference in LVA in patients with and without an abnormal PTFV1 (LVA, 11.0 vs. 5.1 cm2, P < 0.001; LVA burden, 8.9% vs. 4.5%, P < 0.001). PTFV1 and PTAV1 were highest in the upper tertile with extensive LVAs (P < 0.001). Multivariate analysis revealed that abnormal PTFV1 was an independent predictor of LVAs (β = 4.961; 95% CI, 2.135-7.788; P < 0.001). After a median follow-up of 23 months, the AF-free survival rate was similar between the normal PTFV1 group and the abnormal PTFV1 group (13/88 vs. 12/74, hazard ratio [HR], 0.933 [95% CI, 0.425-2.047]; P = 0.861).

CONCLUSIONS

Abnormal PTFV1 at baseline was independently associated with the extent of LVA in older patients with paroxysmal AF.

Left Ventricular End-Systolic Diameter May Predict Persistent Heart Failure with Reduced Ejection Fraction

Patients with persistent heart failure (HF) with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) have a poorer prognosis than those with HF with improved ejection fraction (HFimpEF). However, data on the predictive value of echocardiographic parameters for persistent HFrEF are lacking. We retrospectively studied 443 patients who were diagnosed with HFrEF (EF ≤ 40%) during hospitalization and underwent echocardiography at the 1-year follow-up. We divided them into the 2 groups: HFimpEF (EF > 40%) and persistent HFrEF group at 1-year follow-up, and assessed the predictive value of echocardiographic parameters at discharge for persistent HFrEF. In total, 301/443 patients (68%) were diagnosed with persistent HFrEF and 142/443 (32%) with HFimpEF at the 1-year follow-up. Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed that the persistent HFrEF group had a poorer prognosis than the HFimpEF group (log-rank, P < 0.001). Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis revealed that left ventricular end-systolic diameter (LVESD) had the highest area under the curve (AUC) (0.70; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.64-0.75; cutoff value: 55 mm) among various echocardiographic parameters. LVESD was an independent predictor of persistent HFrEF at the 1-year follow-up (odds ratio: 1.07, 95%CI: 1.02-1.12) upon multivariable logistic regression analysis. The incidence of persistent HFrEF was higher in patients with an LVESD ≥ 55 mm than in those with an LVESD < 55 mm (81% versus 55%, Fisher's exact test, P < 0.001). In conclusion, an LVESD (≥ 55 mm) was associated with persistent HFrEF. Focusing on LVESD in daily practice may help clinicians with risk stratification for decision-making regarding management in patients with advanced HF refractory to guideline-directed medical therapy.

Plasma indole-3-aldehyde as a novel biomarker of acute kidney injury after cardiac surgery: a reanalysis using prospective metabolomic data

BACKGROUND

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a frequent complication of cardiac surgery that poses significant risks for both the development of chronic kidney diseases and mortality. Our previous study illustrated that heightened expression levels of faecal and plasma indole metabolites before the operation were associated with ischemic AKI. In this study, we aimed to validate the supposition that plasma indole-3-aldehyde (I3A) could serve as a predictive biomarker for AKI in patients undergoing cardiac surgery.

METHODS

This statistical reanalysis utilized AKI metabolomic data from patients scheduled for cardiac surgery between April 2022 and July 2022 in two tertiary hospitals. Faecal and blood samples were prospectively collected before surgery within 24 h, and variables related to the preoperative, intraoperative, and postoperative periods were recorded. AKI diagnosis was based on the Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes criteria.

RESULTS

In this study, 55 patients who underwent cardiac surgery were analyzed, and 27 of them (49.1%) developed postoperative AKI. Before surgery, these patients had significantly higher levels of faecal indole metabolites, including skatole, trans-3-indoleacrylic acid, and 5-methoxyindoleacetic acid. The plasma I3A, clinical model that considered perioperative and intraoperative variables, and their combination had area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) values of 0.79 (95% CI 0.67-0.91), 0.78 (95% CI 0.66-0.90), and 0.84 (95% CI 0.74-0.94) for predicting AKI, respectively. Furthermore, by utilizing net reclassification improvement and integrated discrimination improvement, plasma I3A showed significant improvements in risk reclassification compared to the clinical model alone.

CONCLUSIONS

The dysregulation of gut microbiota metabolism in patients scheduled for cardiac surgery can result in an increase in indoles from tryptophan metabolism, which may be associated with postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI). This suggests that indoles may serve as a predictive biomarker for AKI in patients undergoing cardiac surgery.

Predicting the Outcome of ICU Patients with COVID-19 Requires the Inclusion of All Influencing Factors

How to cite this article: de Almeida AG, Scorza FA, Finsterer J. Predicting the Outcome of ICU Patients with COVID-19 Requires the Inclusion of all Influencing Factors. Indian J Crit Care Med 2023;27(11):845-846.

Multivariate classification based on large-scale brain networks during early abstinence predicted lapse among male detoxified alcohol-dependent patients

Identifying biomarkers to predict lapse of alcohol-dependence (AD) is essential for treatment and prevention strategies, but remains remarkably challenging. With an aim to identify neuroimaging features for predicting AD lapse, 66 male AD patients during early-abstinence (baseline) after hospitalized detoxification underwent resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging and were then followed-up for 6 months. The relevance-vector-machine (RVM) analysis on baseline large-scale brain networks yielded an elegant model for differentiating relapsing patients (n = 38) from abstainers, with the area under the curve of 0.912 and the accuracy by leave-one-out cross-validation of 0.833. This model captured key information about neuro-connectome biomarkers for predicting AD lapse.

Prevalence and risk factors of difficult mask ventilation: A systematic review and meta-analysis

STUDY OBJECTIVE

This meta-analysis aimed at identifying the risk factors for and their strengths in predicting difficult mask ventilation (MV) through a systematic approach.

DESIGN

Meta-analysis of observational studies.

SETTING

Operating room.

INTERVENTION

Airway- or patient-related risk factors for difficult MV reported in over 20% of eligible studies identified through literature review.

PATIENTS

Adults receiving anesthetic induction with requirement of MV.

MEASUREMENTS

Databases including EMBASE, MEDLINE, Google Scholar, and Cochrane Library were searched from inception to July 2022. The primary outcomes were the identification of commonly reported risk factors for MV and a comparison of their strengths in difficult MV prediction, while the secondary outcomes were the prevalence of difficult MV in the general population and those with obesity.

MAIN RESULTS

Meta-analysis of 20 observational studies involving 335,846 patients identified 13 risk factors with predictive strengths (all p < 0.05): neck radiation (OR = 5.0, five studies, n = 277,843), increased neck circumference (OR = 4.04, 11 studies, n = 247,871), obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) (OR = 3.61, 12 studies, n = 331,255), presence of beard (OR = 3.35, 12 studies, n = 295,443), snoring (OR = 3.06, 14 studies, n = 296,105), obesity (OR = 2.99, 11 studies, n = 278,297), male gender (OR = 2.76, 16 studies, n = 320,512), Mallampati score III-IV (OR = 2.36, 17 studies, n = 335,016), limited mouth opening (OR = 2.18, six studies, n = 291,795), edentulous (OR = 2.12, 11 studies, n = 249,821), short thyroid-mental distance (OR = 2.12, six studies, n = 328,311), old age (OR = 2, 11 studies, n = 278,750), and limited neck movement (OR = 1.98, nine studies, n = 155,101). The prevalence of difficult MV was 6.1% (16 studies, n = 334,694) and 14.4% (four studies, n = 1152) in the general population and those with obesity, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results demonstrated the strengths of 13 most common risk factors for predicting difficult MV, which may serve as an evidence-based reference for clinicians to incorporate into their daily practice.

Surgery in degenerative spondylolisthesis: does fusion improve outcome in subgroups? A secondary analysis from a randomized trial (NORDSTEN trial)

BACKGROUND CONTEXT

Patients with spinal stenosis and degenerative spondylolisthesis are treated surgically with decompression alone or decompression with fusion. However, there is debate regarding which subgroups of patients may benefit from additional fusion.

PURPOSE

To investigate possible treatment effect modifiers and prognostic variables among patients operated for spinal stenosis and degenerative spondylolisthesis.

DESIGN

A secondary exploratory study using data from the Norwegian Degenerative Spondylolisthesis and Spinal Stenosis (NORDSTEN-DS) trial. Patients were randomized to decompression alone or decompression with instrumented fusion.

PATIENT SAMPLE

The sample in this study consists of 267 patients from a randomized multicenter trial involving 16 hospitals in Norway. Patients were enrolled from February 12, 2014, to December 18, 2017. The study did not include patients with degenerative scoliosis, severe foraminal stenosis, multilevel spondylolisthesis, or previous surgery.

OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome was an improvement of ≥ 30% on the Oswestry Disability Index score (ODI) from baseline to 2-year follow-up.

METHODS

When investigating possible variables that could modify the treatment effect, we analyzed the treatment arms separately. When testing for prognostic factors we analyzed the whole cohort (both treatment groups). We used univariate and multiple regression analyses. The selection of variables was done a priori, according to the published trial protocol.

RESULTS

Of the 267 patients included in the trial (183 female [67%]; mean [SD] age, 66 [7.6] years), complete baseline data for the variables required for the present analysis were available for 205 of the 267 individuals. We did not find any clinical or radiological variables at baseline that modified the treatment effect. Thus, none of the commonly used criteria for selecting patients for fusion surgery influenced the chosen primary outcome in the two treatment arms. For the whole cohort, less comorbidity (American Society of Anesthesiologists Classification [ASA], OR = 4.35; 95% confidence interval (CI [1.16-16.67]) and more preoperative leg pain (OR = 1.23; CI [1.02-1.50]) were significantly associated with an improved primary outcome.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study on patients with degenerative spondylolisthesis, neither previously defined instability criteria nor other pre-specified baseline variables were associated with better clinical outcome if fusion surgery was performed. None of the analyzed variables can be applied to guide the decision for fusion surgery in patients with degenerative spondylolisthesis. For both treatment groups, less comorbidity and more leg pain were associated with improved outcome 2 years after surgery.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

NORDSTEN-DS ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02051374.

Clinicopathologic features and long-term prognosis of hepatitis B virus-associated glomerulonephritis: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Hepatitis B virus-associated glomerulonephritis is a common form of secondary glomerulonephritis in China. However, the clinicopathological features and long-term prognosis of Hepatitis B virus-associated Glomerulonephritis remain only partially known.

METHODS

Biopsy-proven Hepatitis B virus-associated Glomerulonephritis patients were enrolled between November 1994 and December 2013 at our center. The composite endpoints were doubling serum creatinine, end-stage renal disease, or death from renal disease during follow-up. The clinicopathological features and predictors of the long-term prognosis of Hepatitis B virus-associated Glomerulonephritis patients were explored.

RESULTS

The median age of the 259 Hepatitis B virus-associated Glomerulonephritis patients was 31.0 years (IQR 24.0-40.0), and 71.0% were males. Among the patients, 45.2% presented with nephrotic syndrome, and 45.9% presented with proteinuria combined with hematuria. The two most prevalent pathological patterns were IgA nephropathy (27.0%) and membranous nephropathy (27.0%). The mean follow-up period was 68.8 ± 46.9 months. The 3-, 5-, and 10-year clinical event-free survival rates were 93.4%, 85.2%, and 70.3%, respectively. Multivariable Cox regression analysis showed that hypertension (HR 2.580, 95% CI 1.351-4.927, P = 0.004), hyperuricemia (HR 2.101, 95% CI 1.116-3.954, P = 0.021), glomerulosclerosis (P = 0.001), and intrarenal arterial lesions (P = 0.041) were independent predictors of composite clinical event endpoint. Patients in the antiviral therapy group exhibited a significantly better prognosis compared to those who received no antiviral therapy (log-rank χ2 = 5.772, P = 0.016).

CONCLUSION

Hepatitis B virus-associated Glomerulonephritis has specific clinicopathologic features and should not be considered a benign disease in adults. Hypertension, hyperuricemia, glomerulosclerosis, and intrarenal arterial lesions were independent predictors of the long-term prognosis in Hepatitis B virus-associated Glomerulonephritis patients. Antiviral therapy could be effective in improving the long-term prognosis of Hepatitis B virus-associated Glomerulonephritis patients.