Context-specific energy strategies: coupling energy system visions with feasible implementation scenarios

Conventional energy strategy defines an energy system vision (the goal), energy scenarios with technical choices and an implementation mechanism (such as economic incentives). Due to the lead of a generic vision, when applied in a specific regional context, such a strategy can deviate from the optimal one with, for instance, the lowest environmental impacts. This paper proposes an approach for developing energy strategies by simultaneously, rather than sequentially, combining multiple energy system visions and technically feasible, cost-effective energy scenarios that meet environmental constraints at a given place. The approach is illustrated by developing a residential heat supply strategy for a Swiss region. In the analyzed case, urban municipalities should focus on reducing heat demand, and rural municipalities should focus on harvesting local energy sources, primarily wood. Solar thermal units are cost-competitive in all municipalities, and their deployment should be fostered by information campaigns. Heat pumps and building refurbishment are not competitive; thus, economic incentives are essential, especially for urban municipalities. In rural municipalities, wood is cost-competitive, and community-based initiatives are likely to be most successful. Thus, the paper shows that energy strategies should be spatially differentiated. The suggested approach can be transferred to other regions and spatial scales.

Urban shrinkage in Germany and the USA: a comparison of transformation patterns and local strategies

Many American and European cities have to deal with demographic and economic trajectories leading to urban shrinkage. According to official data, 13% of urban regions in the US and 54% of those in the EU have lost population in recent years. However, the extent and spatial distribution of declining populations differ significantly between Europe and the US. In Germany, the situation is driven by falling birth rates and the effects of German reunification. In the US, shrinkage is basically related to long-term industrial transformation. But the challenges of shrinking cities seldom appeared on the agendas of politicians and urban planners until recently. This article provides a critical overview of the development paths and local strategies of four shrinking cities: Schwedt and Dresden in eastern Germany; Youngstown and Pittsburgh in the US. A typology of urban growth and shrinkage, from economic and demographic perspectives, enables four types of city to be differentiated and the differences between the US and eastern Germany to be discussed. The article suggests that a new transatlantic debate on policy and planning strategies for restructuring shrinking cities is needed to overcome the dominant growth orientation that in most cases intensifies the negative consequences of shrinkage.

Metropolitan fragmentation and neo-localism in the periphery: revisiting the case of Curitiba

In this paper, the Curitiba-centred narrative on the success of its urban planning experience will be qualified in light of the complexities of its metropolitan development trajectory. It will be claimed that the institutional vacuum that surrounds Brazilian metropolitan areas in general, and Greater Curitiba in particular, has been intensified by the emergence of a competitive and decentralised state spatial regime, which has consolidated a fragmented and neo-localist system of governance. Preliminary empirical evidence will be provided on the challenges that are being faced within the new regime in articulating socio-spatial, economic and environmental strategies in the direction of a more sustainable metropolitan future.

Regulating public space on the beachfronts of Rio de Janeiro

Despite the fortification of buildings, streets, and public squares, Rio de Janeiro's beaches remain widely regarded as democratic spaces of social diversity and accessibility. Our study revisits the question of Rio's “democratic” beachfronts, based on local interviews, field observations, official reports, and newspaper accounts. We focus on historical and contemporary perceptions of planning, privatization, and public-order programs on the city's southern seaside. Institutional discourses have justified increasing regulation to combat threats of disorder and insecurity. While residents value the relative openness of beachfronts, they also acknowledge issues of safety, social segmentation, and subtle forms of bias. The public generally applauds recent “Shock of Order” policing and commercial revitalization, although critics lament the loss of traditional freedoms for informal beach vendors and casual sports. These paradoxes highlight enduring tensions between social order and hierarchy on one hand, and democratic rights and equality on the other.

Application and evaluation of forecasting methods for municipal solid waste generation in an Eastern-European city

Forecasting of generation of municipal solid waste (MSW) in developing countries is often a challenging task due to the lack of data and selection of suitable forecasting method. This article aimed to select and evaluate several methods for MSW forecasting in a medium-scaled Eastern European city (Kaunas, Lithuania) with rapidly developing economics, with respect to affluence-related and seasonal impacts. The MSW generation was forecast with respect to the economic activity of the city (regression modelling) and using time series analysis. The modelling based on social-economic indicators (regression implemented in LCA-IWM model) showed particular sensitivity (deviation from actual data in the range from 2.2 to 20.6%) to external factors, such as the synergetic effects of affluence parameters or changes in MSW collection system. For the time series analysis, the combination of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and seasonal exponential smoothing (SES) techniques were found to be the most accurate (mean absolute percentage error equalled to 6.5). Time series analysis method was very valuable for forecasting the weekly variation of waste generation data (r (2) > 0.87), but the forecast yearly increase should be verified against the data obtained by regression modelling. The methods and findings of this study may assist the experts, decision-makers and scientists performing forecasts of MSW generation, especially in developing countries.

The future of urban water services in Latin America

In recent decades, problems with the provision of drinking water and sanitation services around the world have increasingly been addressed by attempts at privatisation, recasting clean water as an essentially economic, rather than public, good. This approach gained particular acceptance in Latin America, but with limited success. In order to address the full range of social, economic and environmental values necessary to sustain water resources over time, public and governmental involvement in establishing integrated water management, pursuing ‘soft path’ approaches, assuring stakeholder input and setting policy will be essential to the process.

Urban policy engagement with social sustainability in metro Vancouver

This article presents an analysis of social sustainability in comparative theoretical context and as a challenge to the post-political interpretation of sustainability in policy practice at the urban and regional scales. Metro Vancouver provides a case study for improving our understanding of the meaning of social sustainability as a framework for social policy in that it is among the handful of cities around the world currently working to define and enact social sustainability in governance terms. Results of this participant research provide evidence that some cities are politically engaging alternative development pathways using the concept of social sustainability. For sustainable development to retain its promise as an alternative policy framework for cities, social sustainability must be at the forefront.

Shrinking cities: urban challenges of globalization

Urban shrinkage is not a new phenomenon. It has been documented in a large literature analyzing the social and economic issues that have led to population flight, resulting, in the worse cases, in the eventual abandonment of blocks of housing and neighbourhoods. Analysis of urban shrinkage should take into account the new realization that this phenomenon is now global and multidimensional — but also little understood in all its manifestations. Thus, as the world's population increasingly becomes urban, orthodox views of urban decline need redefinition. The symposium includes articles from 10 urban analysts working on 30 cities around the globe. These analysts belong to the Shrinking Cities International Research Network (SCIRN), whose collaborative work aims to understand different types of city shrinkage and the role that different approaches, policies and strategies have played in the regeneration of these cities. In this way the symposium will inform both a rich diversity of analytical perspectives and country-based studies of the challenges faced by shrinking cities. It will also disseminate SCIRN's research results from the last 3 years.

"I have seen the future": selling the unsustainable city

Seventy years ago, General Motors’ Highways and Horizons exhibit at the World’s Fair, designed by Norman Bel Geddes and Eero Saarinen, promoted demand for cars and federal highways without any concern for environmental sustainability, the theme of our 2010 conference. The main exhibit included a sequence of four parts (entrance ramps, map lobby, Futurama ride, and “intersection of 1960”) where the viewer’s perception of spatial scale was manipulated. Setha M. Low’s theory of “embodied space” helps decode why movement through these diverse spaces influenced millions of Americans’ views of transportation and urban form, a promotional success yet to be equaled by advocates of environmental sustainability.

Providing local color?: "cape coloreds," "cockneys," and Cape Town's identity from the late nineteenth century to the 1970s

Jim Dyos, founding-father of British urban history, argued that cities have commonly acknowledged “individual characteristics” that distinguish them. Such distinctive characteristics, though usually based on material realities, are promoted through literary and visual representations. This article argues that those who seek to convey a city’s distinctiveness will do so not only through describing its particular topography, architecture, history or functions but also by describing its “local colour”: the supposedly unique customs, manner of speech, dress, or other special features of its inhabitants. In colonial cities this process involved white racial stereotyping of “others”. In Cape Town, depictions of “Coloured” inhabitants as unique “city types” became part of the city’s “destination branding”. The article analyses change and continuity in such representations. To this end it draws on the insights of Gareth Stedman Jones into changing depictions of London’s “Cockneys” and the insights of Stephen Ward into historical “place-selling”.

No place, new places: death and its rituals in urban Asia

In many land-scarce Asian cities, planning agencies have sought to reduce space for the dead to release land for the living, encouraging conversion from burial to cremation over several decades. This has caused secular principles privileging efficient land use to conflict with symbolic values invested in burial spaces. Over time, not only has cremation become more accepted, even columbaria have become overcrowded, and new forms of burials (sea and woodland burials) have emerged. As burial methods change, so too do commemorative rituals, including new on-line and mobile phone rituals. This paper traces the ways in which physical spaces for the dead in several east Asian cities have diminished and changed over time, the growth of virtual space for them, the accompanying discourses that influence these dynamics and the new rituals that emerge concomitantly with the contraction of land space.

Declining suburbs in Europe and Latin America

Suburban shrinkage, understood as a degenerative urban process stemming from the demise of the Fordist mode of urbanism, is generally manifested in a decline in population, industry and employment. It is also intimately linked to the global restructuring of industrial organization associated with the rise of the post-Fordist mode of urbanism and, more recently, the thrust of Asian industrialization. Framed in the discourse of industrial urbanism, this article examines the first ring of industrial suburbs that developed around large cities in their most rapid Fordist urbanization phase. These industrial suburbs, although they were formed at different times, are today experiencing specific mutations and undergoing profound restructuring on account of their particular spatial position between the central area and the expanding peripheries of the post-Fordist metropolis. This article describes and compares suburban decline in two European cities (Glasgow and Paris) and two Latin American Cities (São Paulo, Brazil and Guadalajara, Mexico), as different instances of places asymmetrically and fragmentarily integrated into the geography of globalization.

The shrinking mining city: urban dynamics and contested territory

Shrinking mining cities — once prosperous settlements servicing a mining site or a system of mining sites — are characterized by long-term population and/or economic decline. Many of these towns experience periods of growth and shrinkage, mirroring the ebbs and flows of international mineral markets which determine the fortunes of the dominant mining corporation upon which each of these towns heavily depends. This dependence on one main industry produces a parallel development in the fluctuations of both workforce and population. Thus, the strategies of the main company in these towns can, to a great extent, determine future developments and have a great impact on urban management plans. Climate conditions, knowledge, education and health services, as well as transportation links, are important factors that have impacted on lifestyles in mining cities, but it is the parallel development with the private sector operators (often a single corporation) that constitutes the distinctive feature of these cities and that ultimately defines their shrinkage. This article discusses shrinking mining cities in capitalist economies, the factors underpinning their development, and some of the planning and community challenges faced by these cities in Australia, Canada, Japan and Mexico.

Identifying the key factors in increasing recycling and reducing residual household waste: a case study of the Flemish region of Belgium

The competent waste authority in the Flemish region of Belgium created the 'Implementation plan household waste 2003-2007' and the 'Implementation plan sustainable management 2010-2015' to comply with EU regulation. It incorporates European and regional requirements and describes strategies, goals, actions and instruments for the collection and treatment of household waste. The central mandatory goal is to reduce and maintain the amount of residual household waste to 150 kg per capita per year between 2010-2015. In literature, a reasonable body of information has been published on the effectiveness and efficiency of a variety of policy instruments, but the information is complex, often contradictory and difficult to interpret. The objective of this paper is to identify, through the development of a binary logistic regression model, those variables of the waste collection scheme that help municipalities to reach the mandatory 150 kg goal. The model covers a number of variables for household characteristics, provision of recycling services, frequency of waste collection and charging for waste services. This paper, however, is not about waste prevention and reuse. The dataset originates from 2003. Four out of 12 variables in the model contributed significantly: income per capita, cost of residual waste collection, collection frequency and separate curbside collection of organic waste.

The value of urban open space: meta-analyses of contingent valuation and hedonic pricing results

Urban open space provides a number of valuable services to urban populations, including recreational opportunities, aesthetic enjoyment, environmental functions, and may also be associated with existence values. In separate meta-analyses of the contingent valuation (CV) and hedonic pricing (HP) literature we examine which physical, socio-economic, and study characteristics determine the value of open space. The dependent variable in the CV meta-regression is defined as the value of open space per hectare per year in 2003 US$, and in the HP model as the percentage change in house price for a 10 m decrease in distance to open space. Using a multi-level modelling approach we find in both the CV and HP analyses that there is a positive and significant relationship between the value of urban open space and population density, indicating that scarcity and crowdedness matter, and that the value of open space does not vary significantly with income. Further, urban parks are more highly valued than other types of urban open space (forests, agricultural and undeveloped land) and methodological differences in study design have a large influence on estimated values from both CV and HP. We also find important regional differences in preferences for urban open space, which suggests that the potential for transferring estimated values between regions is likely to be limited.

Effects of income and urban form on urban NO2: global evidence from satellites

Urban air pollution is among the top 15 causes of death and disease worldwide, and a problem of growing importance with a majority of the global population living in cities. A important question for sustainable development is to what extent urban design can improve or degrade the environment and public health. We investigate relationships between satellite-derived estimates of nitrogen dioxide concentration (NO(2), a key component of urban air pollution) and urban form for 83 cities globally. We find a parsimonious yet powerful relationship (model R(2) = 0.63), using as predictors population, income, urban contiguity, and meteorology. Cities with highly contiguous built-up areas have, on average, lower urban NO(2) concentrations (a one standard deviation increase in contiguity is associated with a 24% decrease in average NO(2) concentration). More-populous cities tend to have worse air quality, but the increase in NO(2) associated with a population increase of 10% may be offset by a moderate increase (4%) in urban contiguity. Urban circularity ("compactness") is not a statistically significant predictor of NO(2) concentration. Although many factors contribute to urban air pollution, our findings suggest that antileapfrogging policies may improve air quality. We find that urban NO(2) levels vary nonlinearly with income (Gross Domestic Product), following an "environmental Kuznets curve"; we estimate that if high-income countries followed urban pollution-per-income trends observed for low-income countries, NO(2) concentrations in high-income cities would be ∼10× larger than observed levels.

Impact of the global economic crisis on metal levels in particulate matter (PM) at an urban area in the Cantabria Region (Northern Spain)

Air pollution by particulate matter is well linked with anthropogenic activities; the global economic crisis that broke out in the last year may be a proper indicator of this close relationship. Some economic indicators show the regional effects of the crisis on the Cantabria Region. The present work aims to evaluate the impact of the economic crisis on PM10 levels and composition at the major city of the region, Santander. Some metals linked to anthropogenic activities were measured at Santander and studied by Positive Matrix Factorization; this statistical analysis allowed to identify three main factors: urban background, industrial and molybdenum-related factor. The main results show that the temporal trend of the levels of the industrial tracers found in the present study are well agree with the evolution of the studied economic indicators; nevertheless, the urban background tracers and PM10 concentration levels are not well correlated with the studied economic indicators.

Slumdog cities: rethinking subaltern urbanism

This article is an intervention in the epistemologies and methodologies of urban studies. It seeks to understand and transform the ways in which the cities of the global South are studied and represented in urban research, and to some extent in popular discourse. As such, the article is primarily concerned with a formation of ideas - "subaltern urbanism" - which undertakes the theorization of the megacity and its subaltern spaces and subaltern classes. Of these, the ubiquitous ‘slum’ is the most prominent. Writing against apocalyptic and dystopian narratives of the slum, subaltern urbanism provides accounts of the slum as a terrain of habitation, livelihood, self-organization and politics. This is a vital and even radical challenge to dominant narratives of the megacity. However, this article is concerned with the limits of and alternatives to subaltern urbanism. It thus highlights emergent analytical strategies, utilizing theoretical categories that transcend the familiar metonyms of underdevelopment such as the megacity, the slum, mass politics and the habitus of the dispossessed. Instead, four categories are discussed — peripheries, urban informality, zones of exception and gray spaces. Informed by the urbanism of the global South, these categories break with ontological and topological understandings of subaltern subjects and subaltern spaces.

"The last thing that tells our story": the Roodepoort West Cemetery, 1958-2008

This article attempts to capture some of the complexity in the way that memory, meaning and agenda interact in the history of the cemetery of Roodepoort West. Roodepoort West was the 'old location' where Africans and others lived until 1955, after which a gradual process of removals took place until 1967, when it was finally destroyed. However, not everything was lost of the old location. The cemetery remained, after unrest caused by the proposed removal of the local cemetery during the late 1950s persuaded the authorities to leave it alone. More recently, the cemetery has played a part in land restitution, becoming both a site of tension and remembrance. This article explores the many meanings attached to the old cemetery, and funerals more broadly, over a period of time beginning from the 1950s to 2005. By looking at the history of funerals, and the cemetery, new insights and an alternative understanding of what it meant to live in an urban area in Apartheid South Africa can be gained.

Exploring patterns of movement suspension in pedestrian mobility

One of the main tasks in analyzing pedestrian movement is to detect places where pedestrians stop, as those places usually are associated with specific human activities, and they can allow us to understand pedestrian movement behavior. Very few approaches have been proposed to detect the locations of stops in positioning data sets, and they often are based on selecting the location of candidate stops as well as potential spatial and temporal thresholds according to different application requirements. However, these approaches are not suitable for analyzing the slow movement of pedestrians where the inaccuracy of a nondifferential global positioning system commonly used for movement tracking is so significant that it can hinder the selection of adequate thresholds. In this article, we propose an exploratory statistical approach to detect patterns of movement suspension using a local indicator of spatial association (LISA) in a vector space representation. Two different positioning data sets are used to evaluate our approach in terms of exploring movement suspension patterns that can be related to different landscapes: players of an urban outdoor mobile game and visitors of a natural park. The results of both experiments show that patterns of movement suspension were located at places such as checkpoints in the game and different attractions and facilities in the park. Based on these results, we conclude that using LISA is a reliable approach for exploring movement suspension patterns that represent the places where the movement of pedestrians is temporally suspended by physical restrictions (e.g., checkpoints of a mobile game and the route choosing points of a park).

Reconciling beauty and utility in early city planning: the contribution of John Nolen

In the history of city planning, the dichotomy between the aesthetic aspirations of the City Beautiful and City Practical movements is overstated. The aesthetic impulse did not disappear but persisted as an important thread through the development of comprehensive planning approaches into the 1920s. The nexus between beauty and utility was negotiated and expressed across four main discourses: broad social improvement, aesthetic functionality, economic rationality, and holistic design. Ultimately, beauty became wedded to utility within the very nature of the comprehensive city plan itself. The work of the leading city planner John Nolen is central to an understanding of these historic continuities and informed the early evolution of city planning theory and practice. Nolen’s challenge to the City Beautiful paradigm, while still retaining an artistic sensibility, reaestheticizes scholars’ appreciation of the City Practical.

Shenzhen: city of suspended possibility

This essay on Shenzhen, China, presents three vignettes addressing the question of home in a city of migrants. The first section explores the ubiquitous narratives of success forming the city's foundational myth. The second follows this myth into the world of a Shenzhen filmmaker and his characters, as they navigate the tension between the idea of home and the urge to start anew, resulting in the suspended possibility of the title. The last section looks at young architects who hope to preserve the city's heterotopic sites of migrants and original villagers through architectural innovations. The cases show how an economy of desire supplements the political economy of this export-driven city. The city appears as an urban desiring machine that produces itself as an object of desire for the migrants of all classes who flock to its factories, "urban villages", white-collar jobs, luxury villas and underground economy. The essay is an encounter with the mythology of success and failure, the intertwining of home as an end and home as the beginning, and with the manipulation of space that allows residents to control their own subjectivity.

Silver bullet or trojan horse? The effects of inclusionary zoning on local housing markets in the United States

Many local governments are adopting inclusionary zoning (IZ) as a means of producing affordable housing without direct public subsidies. In this paper, panel data on IZ in the San Francisco metropolitan area and suburban Boston are used to analyse how much affordable housing the programmes produce and how IZ affects the prices and production of market-rate housing. The amount of affordable housing produced under IZ has been modest and depends primarily on how long IZ has been in place. Results from suburban Boston suggest that IZ has contributed to increased housing prices and lower rates of production during periods of regional house price appreciation. In the San Francisco area, IZ also appears to increase housing prices in times of regional price appreciation, but to decrease prices during cooler regional markets. There is no evidence of a statistically significant effect of IZ on new housing development in the Bay Area.