The northern “Black Metropolis” of the early twentieth century: a reappraisal

The new perspective of the "Black Metropolis" implies that conditions created by the Great Migration helped blacks in northern cities to establish themselves in professional, entrepreneurial, and artistic, entertainment and mass media occupations. The present study evaluates this argument with Census data, focusing on the nation's largest black communities, Harlem (New York) and Bronzeville (Chicago), at time points that capture the first wave of the Great Migration. Contrary to expectations, the odds of black employment in the aforesaid occupations declined or remained essentially unchanged in both communities over the study period. Harlem and Bronzeville were surprisingly limited in their potential to offer opportunities for blacks to become professionals, entrepreneurs, and artists, entertainers and writers, perhaps because these communities were saturated by the tremendous influx from the South. Accordingly, it is recommended that the Black Metropolis perspective be modified, to provide a more accurate view of the consequences of the Great Migration.

Social status, race, and the timing of marriage in Cuba's first constitutional era, 1902-1940

This article examines the practice of marriage among whites, "mestizos," blacks, Cubans, and Spaniards during the first constitutional era, focusing upon the reported ages of brides and grooms. The study consists of a quantitative examination of trends found in the records of 900 Catholic marriages celebrated in Havana during the opening decades of independence. The first major finding of the research is that according to most major indicators of status, age was negatively correlated with rank. Thus, contrary to the conclusions of studies conducted in many other contexts, those in the highest strata of society married young. Furthermore, very significant differences were detected in the marital patterns of those identified as mixed-race and those labeled as black. This finding offers empirical weight to the notion that the early-mid twentieth-century Cuban racial structure would best be characterized as tripartite, rather than binary in nature.

Enduring pictures in our heads: the continuance of authoritarianism and racial stereotyping

This study highlights the importance of examining the influence of personality measures, specifically authoritarianism, on negative racial stereotyping, even in an era of alleged color blindness. The authors examine the relationship of various demographic variables and authoritarianism with negative racial stereotyping in a sample of White urban respondents. Current literature suggests that age, sex, marital status, religious identification, religious service attendance, education level, income, political affiliation, level of authoritarianism, and the demographic composition in an individual's local population all affect racial stereotyping. The evidence presented, using path analysis, suggests that some demographic characteristics influence the level of negative racial stereotyping. While the effects of most included demographic characteristics were statistically significant, others, which continually resurface in the literature, remained insignificant (such as the demographic composition of the respondent's area). The results of this study challenge the loss of traditional prejudice with color blindness and point to the importance of authoritarianism as a mediating factor in negative racial stereotyping. The authors conclude the greatest indicators of negative racial stereotyping included in this study are authoritarianism, education, and income, while many other demographics - such as marital status, religious identification and attendance, and political affiliation - have indirect influences through authoritarianism.

A perfect storm? Welfare, care, gender and generations in Uruguay

This article claims that welfare states modelled on a contributory basis and with a system of entitlements that assumes stable two-parent families, a traditional breadwinner model, full formal employment and a relatively young age structure are profoundly flawed in the context of present-day challenges. While this is true for affluent countries modelled on the Bismarckian type of welfare system, the costs of the status quo are even more devastating in middle-income economies with high levels of inequality. A gendered approach to welfare reform that introduces the political economy and the economy of care and unpaid work is becoming critical to confront what may very well become a perfect storm for the welfare of these nations and their peoples. Through an in-depth study of the Uruguayan case, the authors show how the decoupling of risk and protection has torn asunder the efficacy of welfare devices in the country. An ageing society that has seen a radical transformation of its family and labour market landscapes, Uruguay maintained during the 1980s and 1990s a welfare state that was essentially contributory, elderly and male-oriented, and centred on cash entitlements. This contributed to the infantilization of poverty, increased the vulnerability of women and exacerbated fiscal stress for the system as a whole. Furthermore, because of high levels of income and asset inequality, the redistribution of risk between upper- and lower-income groups presented a deeply regressive pattern. The political economy of care and welfare has begun to change in the last decade or so, bringing about mild reforms in the right direction; but these might prove to be too little and too late.

Population momentum across the demographic transition

Population momentum is the main driver of global population growth today, and this makes an appreciation of momentum critical to understanding contemporary worldwide growth dynamics. This article traces population momentum along with two recently defined measures of momentum decomposed—stable and nonstable momentum—across the demographic transition. We use historical data and population projections from 16 countries to illustrate some previously ignored empirical regularities of the demographic transition in both the developed and the developing world. We also demonstrate the dynamic nature of stable and nonstable momentum, as changes in stable momentum lead to predictable changes in current and future nonstable momentum. These results suggest that momentum, which by definition is measured at a point in time, can also be considered as a process that unfolds over time.

The impact of gentrification on ethnic neighbourhoods in Toronto: a case study of little Portugal

Despite extensive literature on the nature and impact of gentrification, there has been little consideration of the effects of gentrification on ethnic neighbourhoods. This study evaluates the negative and positive effects of gentrification on the Portuguese in west central Toronto. Details concerning the settlement patterns of the Portuguese, the characteristics of Portuguese residents and patterns of gentrification in inner-city Toronto were obtained from census data. Evaluations of neighbourhood change and attitudes of the residents towards gentrification were obtained from key informant and focus group interviews. The results suggest considerable ambivalence among the respondents, but most agreed that the long-term viability of Little Portugal as an immigrant reception area with a good supply of low-cost housing is in doubt.

Mapping character types onto space: the urban-rural distinction in early statistical writings

This article investigates the construction of urban/rural binary distinctions in 18th- and 19th-century social scientific literature, and in particular in the writings of the statistical societies in England. The 18th-century writers were primarily concerned with the spread of luxury, vice, and effeminacy among the upper social strata in large cities. Later on, statisticians began to focus on moral hazards among the urban working poor. These writings are significant in several respects: they contributed to the spatial mapping of moral character, played a role in the development of quantitative social scientific techniques, and foreshadowed later sociological debates over the nature and consequences of social evolution from simpler to more complex societies.

Nineteenth-century urbanization as sacred process: insights from German Strasbourg

This article examines a crucial site for modernity’s encounter with religion during the long nineteenth century, albeit one largely ignored both by religious and urban historians: the modern big city. Drawing on evidence from Strasbourg, which joined the ranks of Germany’s big cities soon after the Franco-Prussian War, it points out first, that urbanization had a significant urban dimension. It altered the absolute and relative size of the city’s faith communities, affected the confessional composition of urban neighborhoods, and prompted faith communities to mark additional parts of the urban landscape as sacred. Second, while urban growth—both demographic and physical—frequently challenged traditional understandings of religious community, it also facilitated the construction of new understandings of piety and community, especially via voluntary organizations and the religious media. Thereby, urbanization emerged as a key force behind sacralization in city and countryside as the nineteenth century ended and the twentieth began.

Sex, politics, and social change in the eighteenth and the nineteenth centuries: evidence from the Swiss Alps

The eighteenth-century "sexual revolution" cannot simply be explained as a consequence of economic or institutional factors -- industrialization, agricultural revolution, secularization, or legal hindrances to marriages. The example of western Valais (Switzerland) shows that we have to deal with a complex configuration of factors. The micro-historical approach reveals that in the eighteenth- and nineteenth-century sexuality -- and above all illicit sexuality -- was a highly subversive force that was considerably linked to political innovation and probably more generally to historical change. Nonmarital sexuality was clearly tied to political dissent and to innovative ways of behavior, both among the social elites and the common people. This behavior patterns influenced crucial evolutions in the social, cultural, and economic history of the region.

The uncertain timing of reaching 8 billion, peak world population, and other demographic milestones

We present new probabilistic forecasts of the timing of the world's population reaching 8 billion, the world's peak population, and the date at which one-third or more of the world's population would be 60+ years old. The timing of these milestones, as well as the timing of the Day of 7 Billion, is uncertain. We compute that the 60 percent prediction interval for the Day of 8 Billion is between 2024 and 2033. Our figures show that there is around a 60 percent chance that one-third of the world's population would be 60+ years old in 2100. In the UN 2010 medium variant, that proportion never reaches one-third. As in our past forecasts (Lutz et al. 2001, 2008), we find the chance that the world's population will peak in this century to be around 84 percent and the timing of that peak to be highly uncertain. Focal days, like the Day of 7 Billion, play a role in raising public awareness of population issues, but they give a false sense of the certainty of our knowledge. The uncertainty of the timing of demographic milestones is not a constant of nature. Understanding the true extent of our demographic uncertainty can help motivate governments and other agencies to make the investments necessary to reduce it.

Divorce in early modern rural Japan: household and individual life course in northeastern villages, 1716-1870

Drawing data from the local population registers in two northeastern agricultural villages, this study examines the patterns and factors associated with divorce in preindustrial Japan. Divorce was easy and common during this period. More than two thirds of first marriages dissolved in divorce before individuals reached age fifty. Discrete-time event history analysis is applied to demonstrate how economic condition and household context influenced the likelihood of divorce for females. Risk of divorce was extremely high in the first three years and among uxorilocal marriages. Propensity of divorce increased upon economic stress in the community and among households of lower social status. Presence of parents, siblings, and children had strong bearings on marriage to continue.

Economic inequality and child stunting in Bangladesh and Kenya: an investigation of six hypotheses

Consistent with the increasing focus on issues of equity in developing countries, I extend the literature analyzing the relationship between economic inequality and individual health to the developing world. Using survey data from Bangladesh and Kenya with economic status measured by a wealth index and with three different geographic definitions of community, I analyze six competing hypotheses for how economic inequality may be related to stunting among children younger than 5 years old. I find little support for the predominant hypothesis that economic inequality as measured by a Gini index is an important predictor of individual health. Instead, I find that the difference between a household's wealth and the mean household wealth in the community is the measure of economic inequality that is most closely related to stunting in these countries. In particular, a 1 standard deviation increase in household wealth relative to the community mean is associated with a 30–32 percent decrease in the odds of stunting in Bangladesh and a 16–21 percent decrease in the odds of stunting in Kenya.

A global perspective on happiness and fertility

The literature on fertility and happiness has neglected comparative analysis. We investigate the fertility/happiness association using data from the world values surveys for 86 countries. We find that, globally, happiness decreases with the number of children. This association, however, is strongly modified by individual and contextual factors. Most importantly, we find that the association between happiness and fertility evolves from negative to neutral to positive above age 40, and is strongest among those who are likely to benefit most from upward intergenerational transfers. In addition, analyses by welfare regime show that the negative fertility/ happiness association for younger adults is weakest in countries with high public support for families, and the positive association above age 40 is strongest in countries where old-age support depends mostly on the family. Overall these results suggest that children are a long-term investment in well-being, and highlight the importance of the life-cycle stage and contextual factors in explaining the happiness/fertility association.

Effects of demographic and retirement-age policies on future pension deficits, with an application to China

A simple method is proposed for projecting future deficits in a defined benefit or defined contribution pension scheme. The annual pension deficit rate is expressed in terms of the elderly dependency ratio (determined by demographic factors), the average retirement age, and a few parameters describing the scheme. An illustrative application to China demonstrates that if the average age at retirement gradually increases from the current low level to age 65 for both men and women in 2050, the annual pension deficit rate would be greatly reduced or even eliminated under various plausible demographic regimes over this period. With all else equal, a transition to a two-child policy (assuming this would raise fertility) would also lower the deficit rate in comparison to keeping the current fertility policy unchanged, although the effect would be seen only after 2030. The effect of potentially faster mortality decline in raising future deficits is appreciable and starts earlier than the effects of fertility change. The proposed method may also be used to gauge the magnitudes and timing of impacts on future pension deficits of alternative assumptions regarding levels and age/sex composition of international migration.

Demographic knowledge and nation-building: the Peruvian census of 1940

The demographers who organized the 1940 census of Peru portrayed the increasingly mixed-race Peruvian population as indicative of the breaking down of cultural barriers to the emergence of a robust Peruvian identity, a process that, they claimed, would lead to greater national development. This paper analyzes the ways in which demographers constructed cultural heterogeneity as a potential national asset. This reveals how scientific knowledge of miscegenation affected the formation of a nationalist project in the second half of the twentieth century, and also how demographers' ideological commitments to socialism shaped scientific practice.

The Poor Law of old England: institutional innovation and demographic regimes

The striking improvement in life expectancy that took place in England between the Middle Ages and the seventeenth century cannot be explained either by an increase in real wages or by better climatic conditions. The decrease in the risk of utter destitution or of death from famine that was evident on the eve of the Industrial Revolution stemmed, in part, from institutional changes in the old poor law, which began to take shape and become effective early in the seventeenth century.

Constructing a sense of community in rapidly growing European cities in the eleventh to thirteenth centuries

The rapid growth of cities from the eleventh to the thirteenth century raises the question of how a sense of community was created among inhabitants who were migrants from disparate backgrounds. Before urban institutions and legislation emerged, informal social structures based on trust networks appear to have fostered socialization and an adaptation to new ways of life. Travelling merchants created various kinds of associations which were at the origins of the sworn communes. The merchants' guilds also strove to protect citizens on their travels. The growth of the cities led to the need to institutionalize these functions.

Cities and peripheries

This article addresses a methodological problem of urban history faced with the current environmental crisis that urges us to think of humans as ‘geological’ agents. It suggests that the concept of the uncanny that pushes our understanding of spatio-temporality may be a useful device for approaching the methodological need to reconcile what we can and cannot experience/visualize. Viewing the mapping projects around Calcutta in the late eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries through the lens of the uncanny offers us the possibility of such a reconciliation. It enables us to see the landscape as a product of multiple spatio-temporal modes, and loosens the grip of the current urban vocabulary on our imagination of cities.

Stem families and joint families in comparative historical perspective

This note revisits the author's June 2009 PDR article, "Reconsidering the Northwest European family system." Using an array of contemporary and historical census microdata from around the world with simple controls for agricultural employment and demographic structure, I detected no significant differences in complex family structure between nineteenth-century Western Europe and North America and twentieth-century developing countries. This article adds two new measures designed to detect stem families and joint families. The results suggest that Western Europeans and North Americans have had a long-standing aversion to joint family living arrangements, and that this pattern cannot be easily ascribed to demographic and economic conditions.