Development and validation of an electronic frailty index using routine primary care electronic health record data

Background: frailty is an especially problematic expression of population ageing. International guidelines recommend routine identification of frailty to provide evidence-based treatment, but currently available tools require additional resource.

Objectives: to develop and validate an electronic frailty index (eFI) using routinely available primary care electronic health record data.

Study design and setting: retrospective cohort study. Development and internal validation cohorts were established using a randomly split sample of the ResearchOne primary care database. External validation cohort established using THIN database.

Participants: patients aged 65–95, registered with a ResearchOne or THIN practice on 14 October 2008.

Predictors: we constructed the eFI using the cumulative deficit frailty model as our theoretical framework. The eFI score is calculated by the presence or absence of individual deficits as a proportion of the total possible. Categories of fit, mild, moderate and severe frailty were defined using population quartiles.

Outcomes: outcomes were 1-, 3- and 5-year mortality, hospitalisation and nursing home admission.

Statistical analysis: hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated using bivariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses. Discrimination was assessed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Calibration was assessed using pseudo-R² estimates.

Results: we include data from a total of 931,541 patients. The eFI incorporates 36 deficits constructed using 2,171 CTV3 codes. One-year adjusted HR for mortality was 1.92 (95% CI 1.81–2.04) for mild frailty, 3.10 (95% CI 2.91–3.31) for moderate frailty and 4.52 (95% CI 4.16–4.91) for severe frailty. Corresponding estimates for hospitalisation were 1.93 (95% CI 1.86–2.01), 3.04 (95% CI 2.90–3.19) and 4.73 (95% CI 4.43–5.06) and for nursing home admission were 1.89 (95% CI 1.63–2.15), 3.19 (95% CI 2.73–3.73) and 4.76 (95% CI 3.92–5.77), with good to moderate discrimination but low calibration estimates.

Conclusions: the eFI uses routine data to identify older people with mild, moderate and severe frailty, with robust predictive validity for outcomes of mortality, hospitalisation and nursing home admission. Routine implementation of the eFI could enable delivery of evidence-based interventions to improve outcomes for this vulnerable group.

Interventions for preventing delirium in hospitalised non-ICU patients

BACKGROUND

Delirium is a common mental disorder, which is distressing and has serious adverse outcomes in hospitalised patients. Prevention of delirium is desirable from the perspective of patients and carers, and healthcare providers. It is currently unclear, however, whether interventions for preventing delirium are effective.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effectiveness of interventions for preventing delirium in hospitalised non-Intensive Care Unit (ICU) patients.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched ALOIS - the Cochrane Dementia and Cognitive Improvement Group's Specialized Register on 4 December 2015 for all randomised studies on preventing delirium. We also searched MEDLINE (Ovid SP), EMBASE (Ovid SP), PsycINFO (Ovid SP), Central (The Cochrane Library), CINAHL (EBSCOhost), LILACS (BIREME), Web of Science core collection (ISI Web of Science), ClinicalTrials.gov and the WHO meta register of trials, ICTRP.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of single and multi- component non-pharmacological and pharmacological interventions for preventing delirium in hospitalised non-ICU patients.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors examined titles and abstracts of citations identified by the search for eligibility and extracted data independently, with any disagreements settled by consensus. The primary outcome was incidence of delirium; secondary outcomes included duration and severity of delirium, institutional care at discharge, quality of life and healthcare costs. We used risk ratios (RRs) as measures of treatment effect for dichotomous outcomes; and between group mean differences and standard deviations for continuous outcomes.

MAIN RESULTS

We included 39 trials that recruited 16,082 participants, assessing 22 different interventions or comparisons. Fourteen trials were placebo-controlled, 15 evaluated a delirium prevention intervention against usual care, and 10 compared two different interventions. Thirty-two studies were conducted in patients undergoing surgery, the majority in orthopaedic settings. Seven studies were conducted in general medical or geriatric medicine settings.We found multi-component interventions reduced the incidence of delirium compared to usual care (RR 0.69, 95% CI 0.59 to 0.81; seven studies; 1950 participants; moderate-quality evidence). Effect sizes were similar in medical (RR 0.63, 95% CI 0.43 to 0.92; four studies; 1365 participants) and surgical settings (RR 0.71, 95% CI 0.59 to 0.85; three studies; 585 participants). In the subgroup of patients with pre-existing dementia, the effect of multi-component interventions remains uncertain (RR 0.90, 95% CI 0.59 to 1.36; one study, 50 participants; low-quality evidence).There is no clear evidence that cholinesterase inhibitors are effective in preventing delirium compared to placebo (RR 0.68, 95% CI, 0.17 to 2.62; two studies, 113 participants; very low-quality evidence).Three trials provide no clear evidence of an effect of antipsychotic medications as a group on the incidence of delirium (RR 0.73, 95% CI, 0.33 to 1.59; 916 participants; very low-quality evidence). In a pre-planned subgroup analysis there was no evidence for effectiveness of a typical antipsychotic (haloperidol) (RR 1.05, 95% CI 0.69 to 1.60; two studies; 516 participants, low-quality evidence). However, delirium incidence was lower (RR 0.36, 95% CI 0.24 to 0.52; one study; 400 participants, moderate-quality evidence) for patients treated with an atypical antipsychotic (olanzapine) compared to placebo (moderate-quality evidence).There is no clear evidence that melatonin or melatonin agonists reduce delirium incidence compared to placebo (RR 0.41, 95% CI 0.09 to 1.89; three studies, 529 participants; low-quality evidence).There is moderate-quality evidence that Bispectral Index (BIS)-guided anaesthesia reduces the incidence of delirium compared to BIS-blinded anaesthesia or clinical judgement (RR 0.71, 95% CI 0.60 to 0.85; two studies; 2057 participants).It is not possible to generate robust evidence statements for a range of additional pharmacological and anaesthetic interventions due to small numbers of trials, of variable methodological quality.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

There is strong evidence supporting multi-component interventions to prevent delirium in hospitalised patients. There is no clear evidence that cholinesterase inhibitors, antipsychotic medication or melatonin reduce the incidence of delirium. Using the Bispectral Index to monitor and control depth of anaesthesia reduces the incidence of postoperative delirium. The role of drugs and other anaesthetic techniques to prevent delirium remains uncertain.

Managing frailty as a long-term condition

Frailty is a distinctive late-life health state in which apparently minor stressor events are associated with adverse health outcomes. This article considers how the conceptualisation of frailty as a long-term condition offers new management approaches based on systematically applied preventative and proactive interventions. Frailty shares the key features of the common long-term conditions: it can be ameliorated but not cured; it is costly at an individual and societal level; it is progressive; it impacts adversely on life experience and it has episodic crises. The recognition of frailty as a long-term condition is not merely a semantic issue-a wide range of benefits can be anticipated. Primary care-based registers for frailty could be established and chronic disease models applied systematically for co-ordinated and person-centred preventative and proactive care. A team approach is a key component of long-term condition management, incorporating support, follow-up and behaviour change interventions that go beyond the scope of a traditional medical approach. This approach would ideally require changes in secondary care to embrace greater community-based working and closer relationships with the primary health and care team. Although our understanding of interventions to modify or treat frailty has improved, there is considerable scope for further development. Identifying frailty as a long-term condition would be an important step in distinguishing people with frailty as a discrete population for new research.

Frailty and Organization of Health and Social Care

In this chapter, we consider how health and social care can best be organized for older people with frailty. We will consider the merits of routine frailty identification, including risk stratification methods, to inform the provision of evidence-based treatment and holistic, goal-oriented care. We will also consider how best to place older people with frailty at the heart of health and social care systems so that the complex challenges associated with this vulnerable group are addressed.

The influence of a simple blood transfusion policy on overtransfusion in acute upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage

Blood transfusion is widely used in the management of acute upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage (AUGIH). Trial data suggests that excessive transfusion may be detrimental, yet overtransfusion remains commonplace. This study reports the impact of introducing a simple cross-match policy in a district general hospital, which resulted in a substantial fall in the prevalence of overtransfusion (odds ratio 0.43; 95% confidence interval 0.19-0.98), with potential patient benefits in terms of rebleeding, and a reduction in the total blood transfused from 162 to 121 units per 100 patients with AUGIH. For the cost of blood alone, this corresponds to projected savings across the NHS in England in excess of £2 million per annum.

Improving recruitment of older people to clinical trials: use of the cohort multiple randomised controlled trial design

There is widespread evidence of under-recruitment of older people to research studies, notably randomised controlled trials of interventions. Study exclusion criteria, ethical dilemmas, patient preference, risk of bias and challenges for treatment comparisons are particular problems faced by researchers. This article describes how more widespread use of the cohort multiple randomised controlled trial (cmRCT) design in ageing research may help address many of these problems. The original key features of the cmRCT design are a large observational cohort of people with the condition of interest (e.g. frailty) with regular measurement of outcomes for the whole cohort. For each RCT eligible patients are identified and a random selection offered the trial intervention; their outcomes are compared with those eligible patients not offered the intervention. Relevant assents are obtained at baseline to enable future involvement in a range of potential trials. Where possible, the follow-up schedule is aligned with the key time points for assessment in future trials and includes the key baseline descriptors, and primary and secondary outcomes. The cmRCT approach also enables detailed observational and qualitative research for the chosen condition of interest, and might include the establishment of research biobanks to better align basic science, epidemiological, qualitative and clinical trial research.

The prevalence and outcomes of frailty in older cancer patients: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Frailty is a state of vulnerability to poor resolution of homeostasis following a stressor event, such as chemotherapy or cancer surgery. Better knowledge of the epidemiology of frailty could help drive a global cancer care strategy for older people. The aim of this review was to establish the prevalence and outcomes of frailty and pre-frailty in older cancer patients.

METHODS

Observational studies that reported data on the prevalence and/or outcomes of frailty in older cancer patients with any stage of solid or haematological malignancy were considered. We searched Medline, CINAHL, Cochrane Library, EMBASE, Web of Science, Allied and Complementary medicine, Psychinfo and ProQuest (1 January 1996 to 30 June 2013). The primary outcomes were prevalence of frailty, treatment-related side-effects, unplanned hospitalization and mortality. Risk of bias was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa checklist.

RESULTS

Data from 20 studies evaluating 2916 participants are included. The median reported prevalence of frailty and pre-frailty was 42% (range 6%-86%) and 43% (range 13%-79%), respectively. A median of 32% (range 11%-78%) of patients were classified as fit. Frailty was independently associated with increased all-cause mortality [adjusted 5-year hazard ratio (HR) 1.87, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.36-2.57]. There was evidence of increased risk of postoperative mortality for both frailty (adjusted 30-day HR 2.67, 95% CI 1.08-6.62) and pre-frailty (adjusted HR 2.33, 95% CI 1.20-4.52). Treatment complications were more frequent in those with frailty, including intolerance to cancer treatment (adjusted odds ratio 4.86, 95% CI 2.19-10.78) and postoperative complications (adjusted 30-day HR 3.19, 95% CI 1.68-6.04).

CONCLUSIONS

More than half of older cancer patients have pre-frailty or frailty and these patients are at increased risk of chemotherapy intolerance, postoperative complications and mortality. The findings of this review support routine assessment of frailty in older cancer patients to guide treatment decisions, and the development of multidisciplinary geriatric oncology services.

Diagnostic test accuracy of simple instruments for identifying frailty in community-dwelling older people: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

frailty is a state of vulnerability to adverse outcomes. Routine identification of frailty is recommended in international guidance. This systematic review investigates the diagnostic test accuracy (DTA) of simple instruments for identifying frailty in community-dwelling older people.

METHODS

the review methodology followed Cochrane procedures. Databases were searched from January 1990 to October 2013. Prospective studies assessing the DTA of simple instruments for identifying frailty in community-dwelling older people (aged ≥65 years) as index tests against a reference standard phenotype model, cumulative deficit frailty index or comprehensive geriatric assessment were eligible for inclusion. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value and likelihood ratios were calculated for index tests. Risk of bias was assessed using the QUADAS-2 checklist.

RESULTS

three studies involving 3,261 participants were included. Median frailty prevalence was 10.5%. Seven index tests were assessed: gait speed, timed-up-and-go test, PRISMA 7 questionnaire, self-reported health, general practitioner clinical assessment, polypharmacy and Groningen Frailty Index. For a gait speed of <0.8 m/s, the sensitivity = 0.99 and specificity = 0.64. For the PRISMA 7, the sensitivity = 0.83 and specificity = 0.83. For the timed get-up-and-go test of 10 s, the sensitivity = 0.93 and specificity = 0.62. DTA was notably lower for all other index tests. All three studies were judged at unclear risk of bias.

DISCUSSION

slow gait speed, PRISMA 7 and the timed get-up-and-go test have high sensitivity for identifying frailty. However, limited specificity implies many false-positive results which means that these instruments cannot be used as accurate single tests to identify frailty.

Educational interventions for preventing vascular catheter bloodstream infections in critical care: evidence map, systematic review and economic evaluation

BACKGROUND

Bloodstream infections resulting from intravascular catheters (catheter-BSI) in critical care increase patients' length of stay, morbidity and mortality, and the management of these infections and their complications has been estimated to cost the NHS annually £19.1-36.2M. Catheter-BSI are thought to be largely preventable using educational interventions, but guidance as to which types of intervention might be most clinically effective is lacking.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of educational interventions for preventing catheter-BSI in critical care units in England.

DATA SOURCES

Sixteen electronic bibliographic databases - including MEDLINE, MEDLINE In-Process & Other Non-Indexed Citations, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), NHS Economic Evaluation Database (NHS EED), EMBASE and The Cochrane Library databases - were searched from database inception to February 2011, with searches updated in March 2012. Bibliographies of systematic reviews and related papers were screened and experts contacted to identify any additional references.

REVIEW METHODS

References were screened independently by two reviewers using a priori selection criteria. A descriptive map was created to summarise the characteristics of relevant studies. Further selection criteria developed in consultation with the project Advisory Group were used to prioritise a subset of studies relevant to NHS practice and policy for systematic review. A decision-analytic economic model was developed to investigate the cost-effectiveness of educational interventions for preventing catheter-BSI.

RESULTS

Seventy-four studies were included in the descriptive map, of which 24 were prioritised for systematic review. Studies have predominantly been conducted in the USA, using single-cohort before-and-after study designs. Diverse types of educational intervention appear effective at reducing the incidence density of catheter-BSI (risk ratios statistically significantly < 1.0), but single lectures were not effective. The economic model showed that implementing an educational intervention in critical care units in England would be cost-effective and potentially cost-saving, with incremental cost-effectiveness ratios under worst-case sensitivity analyses of < £5000/quality-adjusted life-year.

LIMITATIONS

Low-quality primary studies cannot definitively prove that the planned interventions were responsible for observed changes in catheter-BSI incidence. Poor reporting gave unclear estimates of risk of bias. Some model parameters were sourced from other locations owing to a lack of UK data.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that it would be cost-effective and may be cost-saving for the NHS to implement educational interventions in critical care units. However, more robust primary studies are needed to exclude the possible influence of secular trends on observed reductions in catheter-BSI.

STUDY REGISTRATION

The study is registered with PROSPERO as CRD42012001840.

FUNDING

The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Best practice guidelines for the management of frailty: a British Geriatrics Society, Age UK and Royal College of General Practitioners report

Older people are majority users of health and social care services in the UK and internationally. Many older people who access these services have frailty, which is a state of vulnerability to adverse outcomes. The existing health care response to frailty is mainly secondary care-based and reactive to the acute health crises of falls, delirium and immobility. A more proactive, integrated, person-centred and community-based response to frailty is required. The British Geriatrics Society Fit for Frailty guideline is consensus best practice guidance for the management of frailty in community and outpatient settings.

RECOGNITION OF FRAILTY

The BGS recommends that all encounters between health and social care staff and older people in community and outpatient settings should include an assessment for frailty. A gait speed <0.8m/s; a timed-up-and-go test >10s; and a score of ≥3 on the PRISMA 7 questionnaire can indicate frailty. The common clinical presentations of frailty (falls, delirium, sudden immobility) can also be used to indicate the possible presence of frailty.

MANAGEMENT OF FRAILTY

The BGS recommends an holistic medical review based on the principles of comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA) for all older people identified with frailty. This will: diagnose medical illnesses to optimise treatment; apply evidence-based medication review checklists (e.g. STOPP/START criteria); include discussion with older people and carers to define the impact of illness; work with the older person to create an individualised care and support plan.

SCREENING FOR FRAILTY

The BGS does not recommend population screening for frailty using currently available instruments.

The Home-based Older People's Exercise (HOPE) trial: a pilot randomised controlled trial of a home-based exercise intervention for older people with frailty

BACKGROUND

frailty is a state of vulnerability to stressor events. There is uncertainty about the beneficial effects of exercise interventions for older people with frailty. The Home-based Older People's Exercise (HOPE) programme is a 12-week-exercise intervention for older people with frailty designed to improve mobility and function.

METHODS

we tested feasibility of the HOPE programme in a two arm, assessor blind pilot randomised controlled trial (RCT). Eligibility criteria included living at home and receiving case manager care, being housebound or attending day centres in Bradford, UK. Intervention participants received the HOPE programme; control participants received usual care. Objectives were to gather process, resource, management and scientific data to inform the design of a definitive trial. Primary outcome was mobility, measured using the timed-up-and-go test (TUGT). Secondary outcomes were activities of daily living, health-related quality of life and depression. Participants were stratified by the baseline TUGT score. Randomisation was by the University of Leeds Clinical Trials Research Unit.

RESULTS

eighty-four participants were recruited. Forty-five were randomised to intervention and 39 to control. Forty intervention participants and 30 control participants were included in the intention-to-treat analysis. There was a non-significant trend towards a clinically important improved outcome in the intervention group (mean adjusted between-group difference in the TUGT 28.6 s, 95% CI -8.5, 65.9 s). There were no differences in secondary outcomes.

CONCLUSION

the HOPE trial has provided preliminary evidence that the deterioration in mobility experienced by older people with frailty may be reduced through a 12-week-exercise intervention. The pilot trial has provided the necessary data to design a future definitive RCT.Trial registration and date of first participant randomisation.Current Controlled Trials: International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial Number ISRCTN57066881. Date of trial registration 19/05/2010. Date of first participant randomisation 15/07/2010.

Using process data to understand outcomes in sexual health promotion: an example from a review of school-based programmes to prevent sexually transmitted infections

This article discusses how process indicators can complement outcomes as part of a comprehensive explanatory evaluation framework, using the example of skills-based behavioural interventions to prevent sexually transmitted infections and promote sexual health among young people in schools. A systematic review was conducted, yielding 12 eligible outcome evaluations, 9 of which included a process evaluation. There were few statistically significant effects in terms of changes in sexual behaviour outcomes, but statistically significant effects were more common for knowledge and self-efficacy. Synthesis of the findings of the process evaluations identified a range of factors that might explain outcomes, and these were organized into two overarching categories: the implementation of interventions, and student engagement and intervention acceptability. Factors which supported implementation and engagement and acceptability included good quality teacher training, involvement and motivation of key school stakeholders and relevance and appeal to young people. Factors which had a negative impact included teachers' failure to comprehend the theoretical basis for behaviour change, school logistical problems and omission of topics that young people considered important. It is recommended that process indicators such as these be assessed in future evaluations of school-based sexual health behavioural interventions, as part of a logic model.

Pilot trial of Stop Delirium! (PiTStop)--a complex intervention to prevent delirium in care homes for older people: study protocol for a cluster randomised controlled trial

Background

Delirium (or acute confusion) is a serious illness common in older people, in which a person’s thinking and perceptions may be affected. Reducing delirium is important because of the considerable distress it causes, and the poor outcomes associated with it, such as increased admissions to hospital, falls, mortality and costs to the National Health Service (NHS). Preventing delirium is possible using multicomponent interventions; successful interventions in hospitals have reduced it by one-third. However, there is little research to guide practice in care homes, where it is common because of the clustering of known risk factors (older age, frailty, and dementia). In previous work we developed a multicomponent intervention to prevent delirium in care homes, called Stop Delirium! The intervention was based upon evidence from the research literature relating to the prevention of delirium and on strategies to change professional practice. Before starting a large costly trial of Stop Delirium!, this pilot study will test and help improve the design and feasibility of the trial protocol.

Methods/Design

We plan to conduct a cluster randomised pilot trial in 14 care homes (independent residential and nursing). Following recruitment of residents (over 60 years, consenting or with consultee agreement, able to communicate in English, and not in palliative care) participating homes will be randomised, stratified by size of home and proportion of residents with dementia. Stop Delirium! will be delivered to intervention homes over 16 months, with controls receiving usual care. The primary outcome measure will be the presence of delirium on any day during a one-month post-intervention period.

We will collect data to determine 1) recruitment and attrition rates, 2) feasibility of various outcomes measurements, and 3) feasibility of capturing health resource use (resident diaries and by examining health records). We will estimate the between-cluster variation for the primary outcome, delirium occurrence.

Discussion

This pilot study will refine methods for the definitive trial. The lessons learnt will also contribute to implementing National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) delirium guidelines, which recommend multicomponent interventions for delirium prevention.

Trial registration

ISRCTN27972532.

Interventions for preventing delirium in older people in institutional long-term care

BACKGROUND

Delirium is a common and distressing complication of a range of stressor events including infection, new medications and environment change that is often experienced by older people with frailty and dementia. Older people living in institutional long-term care (LTC)are at high risk of delirium, which increases the risk of admission to hospital, development of or worsening of dementia, and mortality.Delirium is also associated with substantial healthcare costs. Although it is possible to prevent delirium in the hospital setting by providing multicomponent delirium prevention interventions it is currently unclear whether interventions to prevent delirium in LTCare effective.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effectiveness of interventions for preventing delirium in older people in long term care.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched ALOIS (www.medicine.ox.ac.uk/alois) - the Cochrane Dementia and Cognitive Improvement Group's Specialised Register- on 23 April 2013. The search was as sensitive as possible to identify all studies on ALOIS relating to delirium. We ran additional separate searches in major healthcare databases, trial registers, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) and grey literature sources, to ensure that the search was as comprehensive as possible.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and cluster-randomised controlled trials (cluster-RCTs) of single- and multi componentn on-pharmacological and pharmacological interventions for preventing delirium in older people (aged 65 years and over) in permanent LTC residence.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two independent review authors examined the titles and abstracts of citations identified by the search for eligibility and extracted data, with any disagreements settled by consensus. Primary outcomes were prevalence, incidence and severity of delirium. Secondary outcomes included new diagnosis of dementia, activities of daily living, quality of life and adverse outcomes. We used risk ratios (RRs)as measures of treatment effect for dichotomous outcomes and hazard ratios (HR) for time to event data.Main results We included two trials that recruited 3636 participants.Both were complex single-component non-pharmacological delirium prevention interventions. Risk of bias for many items was unclear due to inadequate reporting. Notably, there was no evidence of blinding of trial participants or assessors in either trial. One small cluster-RCT (n = 98) of a hydration-based intervention reported no reduction in delirium incidence in the intervention group compared to control (RR 0.85, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.18 to 4.00, analysis not adjusted for clustering, very low quality evidence). Results were imprecise and there were serious limitations evident in trial design.One large cluster-RCT (n = 3538) of a computerised system to identify medications that may contribute to delirium risk and trigger a pharmacist-led medication review reported a large reduction in delirium incidence (12-month HR 0.42, CI 0.34 to 0.51, moderat equality evidence) but no clear evidence of reduction in hospital admissions (HR 0.89, CI 0.72 to 1.10, moderate quality evidence), in mortality (HR 0.88, CI 0.66 to 1.17, moderate quality evidence) or in falls risk (HR 1.03, CI 0.92 to 1.15, moderate quality evidence).Authors' conclusions Our review identified very limited evidence on interventions for preventing deliriumin older people in LTC. Introduction of a software based intervention to identify medications that could contribute to delirium risk so that a pharmacist-led medication review and monitoring plan can be initiated may reduce incidence of delirium for older people in institutional LTC. This is based on one large RCT in the United States and may not be practical in other countries which do not have comparable information technology services available in care homes. Our review identified only one ongoing pilot trial of a multicomponent delirium prevention intervention and no trials of pharmacological agents. Future trials of computerised medication management systems and multicomponent non-pharmacological and pharmacological delirium prevention interventions for older people in LTC are needed to help inform the provision of evidence based care for this vulnerable group.

Are educational interventions to prevent catheter-related bloodstream infections in intensive care unit cost-effective?

BACKGROUND

There is increasing interest in evidence-based educational interventions in central venous catheter care. It is unclear how effective these are at reducing the risk of bloodstream infections from the use of intravascular catheters (catheter-BSIs) and the associated costs and health benefits.

AIM

To estimate the additional costs and health benefits from introducing such interventions and the costs associated with catheter-BSIs.

METHODS

A comprehensive epidemiological and economic review was performed to develop the parameters for an economic model to assess the cost-effectiveness of introducing an educational intervention compared with clinical practice without the intervention. The model follows the clinical pathway of cohorts of patients from their admission to an intensive care unit (ICU), where some may acquire catheter-BSI, and estimates the associated costs, mortality and life expectancy.

FINDINGS

The additional cost per catheter-BSI episode was £3940. The results of this model demonstrate that introducing an additional educational intervention to prevent catheter-BSI improved patient life expectancy and reduced overall costs.

CONCLUSION

Introducing evidence-based education is likely to reduce the incidence of catheter-BSI and the model results suggest that the cost of introducing the interventions will be outweighed by savings related to reduced ICU bed occupancy costs.

In-hospital delirium risk assessment, diagnosis and management; medications to avoid

Background: Delirium is a common, but potentially preventable complication of acute illness that is associated with important adverse outcomes including increased length of hospital admission, risk of dementia and admission to long-term care. In-hospital risk assessment and diagnosis: Age over 65, severe illness, current hip fracture and presence of cognitive impairment or dementia are important risk factors for delirium. Assess people with any of these risk factors for recent changes or fluctuations in behaviour that might indicate delirium. If any indicators are present, complete a full cognitive assessment to confirm the diagnosis of delirium. In-hospital risk management: Multicomponent delirium prevention interventions can reduce the incidence of delirium in hospital by around one third and should be provided to people with any of the important risk factors that do not have delirium at admission. A medication review that considers both the number and type of prescribed medications is an important part of the multicomponent delirium prevention intervention. Which medications to avoid in people at risk of delirium: For people at risk of delirium, avoid new prescriptions of benzodiazepines or consider reducing or stopping these medications where possible. Opioids should be prescribed with caution in people at risk of delirium but this should be tempered by the observation that untreated severe pain can itself trigger delirium. Caution is also required when prescribing dihydropyridines and antihistamine H1 antagonists for people at risk of delirium and considered individual patient assessment is advocated. Conclusion: Delirium is common, distressing to patients, relatives and carers and is associated with important adverse outcomes. Multicomponent delirium prevention interventions can reduce the incidence of delirium by approximately one third and usually incorporate a medication review. Identification of which medications to avoid in people at risk of delirium will help guide evidence-based decision making.

Frailty in elderly people

Frailty is the most problematic expression of population ageing. It is a state of vulnerability to poor resolution of homoeostasis after a stressor event and is a consequence of cumulative decline in many physiological systems during a lifetime. This cumulative decline depletes homoeostatic reserves until minor stressor events trigger disproportionate changes in health status. In landmark studies, investigators have developed valid models of frailty and these models have allowed epidemiological investigations that show the association between frailty and adverse health outcomes. We need to develop more efficient methods to detect frailty and measure its severity in routine clinical practice, especially methods that are useful for primary care. Such progress would greatly inform the appropriate selection of elderly people for invasive procedures or drug treatments and would be the basis for a shift in the care of frail elderly people towards more appropriate goal-directed care.

Dasatinib, high-dose imatinib and nilotinib for the treatment of imatinib-resistant chronic myeloid leukaemia: a systematic review and economic evaluation

BACKGROUND

The present report was commissioned as a supplement to an existing technology assessment report produced by the Peninsula Technology Assessment Group (PenTAG), which evaluated the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of dasatinib and nilotinib in patients who are either resistant or intolerant to standard-dose imatinib.

OBJECTIVES

This report evaluates the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of dasatinib, nilotinib and high-dose imatinib within their licensed indications for the treatment of people with chronic myeloid leukaemia (CML) who are resistant to standard-dose imatinib.

DATA SOURCES

Bibliographic databases were searched from inception to January 2011, including The Cochrane Library, MEDLINE (Ovid), EMBASE (Ovid), and MEDLINE In-Process & Other Non-Indexed Citations. Bibliographies of related papers were screened, key conferences were searched, and experts were contacted to identify additional published and unpublished references.

REVIEW METHODS

This report includes systematic reviews of clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness studies, an independent appraisal of information submitted by drug manufacturers to the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE), an independent appraisal of the PenTAG economic evaluation, and new economic analyses adapting the PenTAG economic model. Standard systematic procedures involving two reviewers to maintain impartiality and transparency, and to minimise bias, were conducted.

RESULTS

Eleven studies met the inclusion criteria. Four of these studies included new data published since the PenTAG report; all of these were in chronic-phase CML. No relevant studies on the clinical effectiveness of nilotinib were found. The clinical effectiveness studies on dasatinib [one arm of a randomised controlled trial (RCT)] and high-dose imatinib (one arm of a RCT and three single-arm cohort studies) had major methodological limitations. These limitations precluded a comparison of the different arms within the RCT. Data from the studies are summarised in this report, but caution in interpretation is required. One economic evaluation was identified that compared dasatinib with high-dose imatinib in patients with chronic-phase CML who were CML resistant to standard-dose imatinib. Two industry submissions and the PenTAG economic evaluation were critiqued and differences in the assumptions and results were identified. The PenTAG economic model was adapted and new analyses conducted for the interventions dasatinib, nilotinib and high-dose imatinib and the comparators interferon alfa, standard-dose imatinib, stem cell transplantation and hydroxycarbamide. The results suggest that the three interventions, dasatinib, nilotinib and high-dose imatinib, have similar costs and cost-effectiveness compared with hydroxycarbamide, with a cost-effectiveness of around £30,000 per quality-adjusted life-year gained. However, it is not possible to derive firm conclusions about the relative cost-effectiveness of the three interventions owing to great uncertainty around data inputs. Uncertainty was explored using deterministic sensitivity analyses, threshold analyses and probabilistic sensitivity analyses.

LIMITATIONS

The paucity of good-quality evidence should be considered when interpreting this report.

CONCLUSIONS

This review has identified very limited new information on clinical effectiveness of the interventions over that already shown in the PenTAG report. Limitations in the data exist; however, the results of single-arm studies suggest that the interventions can lead to improvements in haematological and cytogenetic responses in people with imatinib-resistant CML. The economic analyses do not highlight any one of the interventions as being the most cost-effective; however, the analysis results are highly uncertain owing to lack of agreement on appropriate assumptions. Recommendations for future research made by PenTAG, for a good-quality RCT comparing the three treatments remain.

Behavioural interventions for the prevention of sexually transmitted infections in young people aged 13-19 years: a systematic review

We systematically reviewed school-based skills building behavioural interventions for the prevention of sexually transmitted infections. References were sought from 15 electronic resources, bibliographies of systematic reviews/included studies and experts. Two authors independently extracted data and quality-assessed studies. Fifteen randomized controlled trials (RCTs), conducted in the United States, Africa or Europe, met the inclusion criteria. They were heterogeneous in terms of intervention length, content, intensity and providers. Data from 12 RCTs passed quality assessment criteria and provided evidence of positive changes in non-behavioural outcomes (e.g. knowledge and self-efficacy). Intervention effects on behavioural outcomes, such as condom use, were generally limited and did not demonstrate a negative impact (e.g. earlier sexual initiation). Beneficial effect on at least one, but never all behavioural outcomes assessed was reported by about half the studies, but this was sometimes limited to a participant subgroup. Sexual health education for young people is important as it increases knowledge upon which to make decisions about sexual behaviour. However, a number of factors may limit intervention impact on behavioural outcomes. Further research could draw on one of the more effective studies reviewed and could explore the effectiveness of 'booster' sessions as young people move from adolescence to young adulthood.

The Home-Based Older People's Exercise (HOPE) trial: study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Frailty is common in older age, and is associated with important adverse health outcomes including increased risk of disability and admission to hospital or long-term care. Exercise interventions for frail older people have the potential to reduce the risk of these adverse outcomes by increasing muscle strength and improving mobility.

METHODS/DESIGN

The Home-Based Older People's Exercise (HOPE) trial is a two arm, assessor blind pilot randomised controlled trial (RCT) to assess the effectiveness of a 12 week exercise intervention (the HOPE programme) designed to improve the mobility and functional abilities of frail older people living at home, compared with usual care. The primary outcome is the timed-up-and-go test (TUGT), measured at baseline and 14 weeks post-randomisation. Secondary outcomes include the Barthel Index of activities of daily living (ADL), EuroQol Group 5-Dimension Self-Report Questionnaire (EQ-5D) quality of life measure and the geriatric depression scale (GDS), measured at baseline and 14 weeks post-randomisation. We will record baseline frailty using the Edmonton Frail Scale (EFS), record falls and document muscle/joint pain. We will test the feasibility of collection of data to identify therapy resources required for delivery of the intervention.

DISCUSSION

The HOPE trial will explore and evaluate a home-based exercise intervention for frail older people. Although previous RCTs have used operationalised, non-validated methods of measuring frailty, the HOPE trial is, to our knowledge, the first RCT of an exercise intervention for frail older people that includes a validated method of frailty assessment at baseline.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ISRCTN: ISRCTN57066881.

The clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of long-term weight management schemes for adults: a systematic review

OBJECTIVE

To assess the long-term clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of multicomponent weight management schemes for adults in terms of weight loss and maintenance of weight loss.

DATA SOURCES

Bibliographic databases were searched from inception to December 2009, including the Cochrane Library, MEDLINE (Ovid), EMBASE (Ovid), and MEDLINE In-Process & Other Non-Indexed Citations. Bibliographies of related papers were screened, key conferences and symposia were searched and experts were contacted to identify additional published and unpublished references.

REVIEW METHODS

For the clinical effectiveness review, two reviewers independently screened titles and abstracts for eligibility. Inclusion criteria were applied to the full text of retrieved papers by one reviewer and checked by a second reviewer using a pre-piloted inclusion flow chart. The studies were long-term randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of adult participants who were classified by body mass index as overweight or obese. Interventions were multicomponent weight management programmes (including diet, physical activity and behaviour change strategies) that assessed weight measures. Programmes that involved the use of over-the-counter medicines licensed in the UK were also eligible. For the cost-effectiveness review two reviewers independently screened studies for inclusion. Cost-effectiveness, cost-utility, cost-benefit or cost-consequence analyses were eligible. Data were extracted using a standardised and pre-piloted data extraction form. The quality of included studies was assessed using standard criteria. Studies were synthesised through a narrative review with full tabulation of results.

RESULTS

A total of 3358 references were identified, of which 12 were included in the clinical effectiveness review. Five RCTs compared multicomponent interventions with non-active comparator groups. In general, weight loss appeared to be greater in the intervention groups than in the comparator groups. Two RCTs compared multicomponent interventions that focused on the diet component. In these studies there were no statistically significant differences in weight loss between interventions. Four RCTs compared multicomponent interventions that focused on the physical activity component. There was little consistency in the pattern of results seen, in part owing to the differences in the interventions. In one RCT the intervention focused on the goal-setting interval and it appeared that weight loss was greatest in those given daily goals compared with weekly goals. Overall, where measured, it appeared that most groups began to regain weight at further follow-up. Of the 419 studies identified in the cost-effectiveness searches, none met the full inclusion criteria. Two economic evaluations are described in our review; however, caution is required in their interpretation, as they did not meet all inclusion criteria. Lifetime chronic disease models were used in these studies and the models included the costs and benefits of avoiding chronic illness. Both studies found the interventions to be cost-effective, with estimates varying between -£473 and £7200 (US$12,640) per quality-adjusted life-year gained; methodological omissions from these studies were apparent and caution is therefore required in the interpretation of these results.

CONCLUSIONS

Long-term multicomponent weight management interventions were generally shown to promote weight loss in overweight or obese adults. Weight changes were small however and weight regain was common. There were few similarities between the included studies; consequently an overall interpretation of the results was difficult to make. There is some evidence that weight management interventions are likely to be cost-effective, although caution is required as there were some limitations in the two cost-evaluation studies described.

FUNDING

The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Which medications to avoid in people at risk of delirium: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

delirium is a common clinical problem and is associated with adverse health outcomes. Many medications have been associated with the development of delirium, but the strength of the associations is uncertain and it is unclear which medications should be avoided in people at risk of delirium.

METHODS

we conducted a systematic review to identify prospective studies that investigated the association between medications and risk of delirium. A sensitivity analysis was performed to construct an evidence hierarchy for the risk of delirium with individual agents.

RESULTS

a total of 18,767 studies were identified by the search strategy. Fourteen studies met the inclusion criteria. Delirium risk appears to be increased with opioids (odds ratio [OR] 2.5, 95% CI 1.2-5.2), benzodiazepines (3.0, 1.3-6.8), dihydropyridines (2.4, 1.0-5.8) and possibly antihistamines (1.8, 0.7-4.5). There appears to be no increased risk with neuroleptics (0.9, 0.6-1.3) or digoxin (0.5, 0.3-0.9). There is uncertainty regarding H(2) antagonists, tricyclic antidepressants, antiparkinson medications, steroids, non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs and antimuscarinics.

CONCLUSION

for people at risk of delirium, avoid new prescriptions of benzodiazepines or consider reducing or stopping these medications where possible. Opioids should be prescribed with caution in people at risk of delirium, but this should be tempered by the observation that untreated severe pain can itself trigger delirium. Caution is also required when prescribing dihydropyridines and antihistamine H1 antagonists for people at risk of delirium and considered individual patient assessment is advocated.

Recurrent syncope and chronic ear pain

An elderly gentleman presented to hospital with recurrent blackout episodes consistent with syncope and a 3-month history of right ear pain. Significant postural hypotension was recorded. White cell count and C reactive protein were elevated. MRI of the head and neck revealed a soft tissue abnormality in the right nasopharynx and base of skull. Tissue biopsies were obtained and microbiology specimens revealed a mixed growth of pseudomonas and diphtheroids. There was no histological evidence of malignancy. A diagnosis of skull base infection was made. Infective involvement of the carotid sinus was considered to be the cause of the recurrent syncope and postural hypotension. The patient responded well to a 12-week course of intravenous meropenem. Inflammatory markers returned to normal and a repeat MRI after 3 months of treatment showed significant resolution of infection. The syncopal episodes and orthostatic hypotension resolved in parallel with treatment of infection.

Topotecan for relapsed small cell lung cancer: a systematic review and economic evaluation

BACKGROUND

Topotecan is a relatively new drug for use as a second-line treatment in patients with relapsed small cell lung cancer (SCLC). We performed a systematic review and economic evaluation of topotecan, and consider it here in relation to the NICE end of life criteria.

METHODS

Seventeen bibliographic databases (including Cochrane library, Medline and Embase) were searched from 1990 to February 2009, and experts and manufacturers were consulted, to identify relevant randomised controlled trials (RCTs) which were selected according to prospectively defined criteria. An economic evaluation was undertaken to assess cost effectiveness compared with best supportive care (BSC) in the UK.

RESULTS

Five RCTs were included. The clinical evidence indicates a statistically significant benefit of oral topotecan plus BSC compared to BSC alone for overall survival. Intravenous topotecan was similar in efficacy to both oral topotecan and CAV (cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin and vincristine). In the survival model, oral topotecan plus BSC was associated with an average gain in life expectancy of approximately 4 months, resulting in a gain of 0.183 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). At an incremental cost of approximately £6200 the incremental cost effectiveness ratio (ICER) is £33,851 per QALY gained.

CONCLUSIONS

Compared with BSC alone, oral topotecan for patients with relapsed SCLC was associated with improved health outcomes but at increased cost. The ICER is at the upper extreme of the range conventionally regarded as cost effective from an NHS decision making perspective. However, this treatment may fall under supplementary guidance for life extending, end of life treatments.

The effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of behavioural interventions for the prevention of sexually transmitted infections in young people aged 13-19: a systematic review and economic evaluation

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of schools-based skills-building behavioural interventions to encourage young people to adopt and maintain safer sexual behaviour and to prevent them from acquiring sexually transmitted infections (STIs).

DATA SOURCES

Electronic bibliographic databases (e.g. MEDLINE, MEDLINE In-Process & Other Non-Indexed Citations, EMBASE, CINAHL, PsycINFO, CCRCT, NHS EED and DARE) were searched for the period 1985 to March 2008. Bibliographies of systematic reviews and related papers were screened and experts contacted to identify additional published and unpublished references.

REVIEW METHODS

A systematic review of effectiveness and economic evaluation of cost-effectiveness were carried out. A descriptive map of studies that met inclusion criteria was produced, and keywords were developed and systematically applied to these studies to identify a policy-relevant subset of studies for the systematic review. Outcome data for variables including sexual behaviour were extracted. An economic model was developed to compare the costs and consequences of the behavioural interventions. A Bernoulli statistical model was constructed to describe the probability of STI infection.

RESULTS

There were few significant differences between the interventions and comparators in terms of changes in sexual behaviour outcomes, although there were some significant differences for knowledge and some measures of self-efficacy. The studies included in this review conducted relatively short follow-up assessments at a time when many young people were becoming sexually active. It is therefore possible that favourable behaviour change may have occurred, and become more cost-effective, with time, as sexual activity becomes more routine in young people's lives. The quality of the intervention provider influenced whether or not young people found the interventions to be acceptable and engaging; enthusiasm and considerable expertise were important for effective class management and delivery of skills-building activities, and a supportive school culture was also helpful. Recognition of young people's individual needs in relation to sexual health was another important factor. No conclusions could be drawn on the impact of the interventions on sexual health inequalities due to a lack of relevant data on socioeconomic status, gender and ethnicity. The results of the economic evaluation were considered to be illustrative, mainly due to the uncertainty of the effect of intervention on behavioural outcomes. The results were most sensitive to changes in parameter values for the intervention effect, the transmission probability of STIs and the number of sexual partners. The costs of teacher-led and peer-led behavioural interventions, based on the resources estimated from the relevant randomised controlled trials in our systematic review, were 4.30 pounds and 15 pounds per pupil, respectively. Teacher-led interventions were more cost-effective than peer-led interventions due to the less frequent need for training. The incremental cost-effectiveness of the teacher-led and peer-led interventions was 20,223 pounds and 80,782 pounds per quality-adjusted life-year gained, respectively. An analysis of individual parameters revealed that future research funding should focus on assessing the intervention effect for condom use from a school-based intervention.

CONCLUSIONS

School-based behavioural interventions for the prevention of STIs in young people can bring about improvements in knowledge and increased self-efficacy, but the interventions did not significantly influence sexual risk-taking behaviour or infection rates. Future investigation should include long-term follow-up to assess the extent to which safer sexual behaviour is adopted and maintained into adulthood, and prospective cohort studies are needed to look at the parameters that describe the transmission of STIs between partners. Funding should focus on the effectiveness of the interventions on influencing behaviour.

ENFIN--A European network for integrative systems biology

Integration of biological data of various types and the development of adapted bioinformatics tools represent critical objectives to enable research at the systems level. The European Network of Excellence ENFIN is engaged in developing an adapted infrastructure to connect databases, and platforms to enable both the generation of new bioinformatics tools and the experimental validation of computational predictions. With the aim of bridging the gap existing between standard wet laboratories and bioinformatics, the ENFIN Network runs integrative research projects to bring the latest computational techniques to bear directly on questions dedicated to systems biology in the wet laboratory environment. The Network maintains internally close collaboration between experimental and computational research, enabling a permanent cycling of experimental validation and improvement of computational prediction methods. The computational work includes the development of a database infrastructure (EnCORE), bioinformatics analysis methods and a novel platform for protein function analysis FuncNet.

Gemcitabine for the treatment of metastatic breast cancer

This paper presents a summary of the evidence review group (ERG) report into the evidence for the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of gemcitabine with paclitaxel for the first-line treatment of metastatic breast cancer (MBC) in patients who have already received chemotherapy treatment with an anthracycline, compared with current standard of care, based upon the manufacturer's submission to the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) as part of the single technology appraisal (STA) process. The clinical evidence for gemcitabine as a treatment for MBC comes from the unpublished JHQG trial (some data commercial-in-confidence): overall survival was 3 months longer for the gemcitabine/paclitaxel arm (18.5 months) than for the paclitaxel arm (15.8 months) (p = 0.0489); gemcitabine/paclitaxel also improved tumour response and time to documented progression of disease compared with paclitaxel monotherapy, but haematological serious adverse events were more common. In the absence of any formal methods of indirect comparison there is insufficient robust evidence to compare the relative effectiveness of gemcitabine/paclitaxel with docetaxel monotherapy or docetaxel/capecitabine combination therapy. The manufacturers used a Markov state transition model to estimate the effect of treatment with five different chemotherapy regimes, adopting a 3-year time horizon with docetaxel monotherapy as the comparator. Health state utilities for different stages of disease progression and for patients experiencing treatment-related toxicity are used to derive quality-adjusted life expectancy with each treatment. The base-case cost-effectiveness estimate for gemcitabine/paclitaxel versus docetaxel is 17,168 pounds per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). When longer survival with docetaxel is assumed in a sensitivity analysis, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) is 30,000 pounds per QALY. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis estimates a 70% probability of gemcitabine/paclitaxel being cost-effective relative to docetaxel at a willingness-to-pay threshold of 35,000 pounds. There is considerable uncertainty over the results because of the lack of formal quality assessment or assessment of the comparability of the 15 trials included in the input data, and the questionable validity of the indirect comparison method adopted. An illustrative analysis using a different method for indirect comparison carried out by the ERG produces an ICER of 45,811 pounds per QALY for gemcitabine/paclitaxel versus docetaxel. The guidance issued by NICE in November 2006 as a result of the STA states that gemcitabine in combination with paclitaxel, within its licensed indication, is recommended as an option for the treatment of MBC only when docetaxel monotherapy or docetaxel plus capecitabine is also considered appropriate.

Gene3D: merging structure and function for a Thousand genomes

Over the last 2 years the Gene3D resource has been significantly improved, and is now more accurate and with a much richer interactive display via the Gene3D website (http://gene3d.biochem.ucl.ac.uk/). Gene3D provides accurate structural domain family assignments for over 1100 genomes and nearly 10 000 000 proteins. A hidden Markov model library, constructed from the manually curated CATH structural domain hierarchy, is used to search UniProt, RefSeq and Ensembl protein sequences. The resulting matches are refined into simple multi-domain architectures using a recently developed in-house algorithm, DomainFinder 3 (available at: ftp://ftp.biochem.ucl.ac.uk/pub/gene3d_data/DomainFinder3/). The domain assignments are integrated with multiple external protein function descriptions (e.g. Gene Ontology and KEGG), structural annotations (e.g. coiled coils, disordered regions and sequence polymorphisms) and family resources (e.g. Pfam and eggNog) and displayed on the Gene3D website. The website allows users to view descriptions for both single proteins and genes and large protein sets, such as superfamilies or genomes. Subsets can then be selected for detailed investigation or associated functions and interactions can be used to expand explorations to new proteins. Gene3D also provides a set of services, including an interactive genome coverage graph visualizer, DAS annotation resources, sequence search facilities and SOAP services.

Lapatinib for the treatment of HER2-overexpressing breast cancer

This paper presents a summary of the evidence review group (ERG) report into the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of lapatinib for the treatment of advanced or metastatic HER2-overexpressing breast cancer based upon a review of the manufacturer's submission to the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) as part of the single technology appraisal (STA) process. The scope included women with advanced, metastatic or recurrent HER2-overexpressing breast cancer who have had previous therapy that includes trastuzumab. Outcomes were time to progression, progression-free survival, response rates, overall survival, health-related quality of life and adverse effects. The submission's evidence came from one randomised controlled trial (RCT) of reasonable methodological quality, although it was not powered to detect a statistically significant difference in mean overall survival. Median time to progression was longer in the lapatinib plus capecitabine arm than in the capecitabine monotherapy arm {27.1 [95% confidence interval (CI) 17.4 to 49.4] versus 18.6 [95% CI 9.1 to 36.9] weeks; hazard ratio 0.57 [95% CI 0.43 to 0.77; p = 0.00013]}. Median overall survival was very similar between the groups [67.7 (95% CI 58.9 to 91.6) versus 66.6 (95% CI 49.1 to 75.0) weeks; hazard ratio 0.78 (95% CI 0.55 to 1.12; p = 0.177)]. Median progression-free survival was statistically significantly longer in the lapatinib plus capecitabine group than in the capecitabine monotherapy group [27.1 (95% CI 24.1 to 36.9) versus 17.6 (95% CI 13.3 to 20.1) weeks; hazard ratio 0.55 (95% CI 0.41 to 0.74); p = 0.000033]. The manufacturer's economic model to estimate progression-free and overall survival for patients with HER2-positive advanced/metastatic breast cancer who had relapsed following treatment with an anthracycline, a taxane and trastuzumab was appropriate for the disease area. The base-case incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for lapatinib plus capecitabine compared with capecitabine monotherapy or vinorelbine monotherapy were higher than would conventionally be considered cost-effective. When compared with trastuzumab-containing regimes, lapatinib plus capecitabine dominated. In sensitivity analyses the ICER for lapatinib plus capecitabine compared with capecitabine monotherapy or vinorelbine monotherapy was robust to variation in assumptions. In all sensitivity analyses the ICERs remained higher than would conventionally be considered cost-effective. ICERs for trastuzumab-containing regimes were particularly sensitive to assumptions over the frequency of treatment, which had a large effect on the cost-effectiveness of lapatinib plus capecitabine. In conclusion, there was a general lack of evidence on the effectiveness of comparators included in the model and on key parameters such as dose adjustments and the model outputs need to be interpreted in the light of this uncertainty. At the time of writing, NICE were still considering the available evidence for this appraisal.

Lapatinib for the treatment of HER2-overexpressing breast cancer

This paper presents a summary of the evidence review group (ERG) report into the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of lapatinib for the treatment of advanced or metastatic HER2overexpressing breast cancer based upon a review of the manufacturer’s submission to the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) as part of the single technology appraisal (STA) process. The scope included women with advanced, metastatic or recurrent HER2-overexpressing breast cancer who have had previous therapy that includes trastuzumab. Outcomes were time to progression, progression-free survival, response rates, overall survival, health-related quality of life and adverse effects. The submission’s evidence came from one randomised controlled trial (RCT) of reasonable methodological quality, although it was not powered to detect a statistically significant difference in mean overall survival. Median time to progression was longer in the lapatinib plus capecitabine arm than in the capecitabine monotherapy arm {27.1 [95% confidence interval (CI) 17.4 to 49.4] versus 18.6 [95% CI 9.1 to 36.9] weeks; hazard ratio 0.57 [95% CI 0.43 to 0.77; p = 0.00013]}. Median overall survival was very similar between the groups [67.7 (95% CI 58.9 to 91.6) versus 66.6 (95% CI 49.1 to 75.0) weeks; hazard ratio 0.78 (95% CI 0.55 to 1.12; p = 0.177)]. Median progression-free survival was statistically significantly longer in the lapatinib plus capecitabine group than in the capecitabine monotherapy group [27.1 (95% CI 24.1 to 36.9) versus 17.6 (95% CI 13.3 to 20.1) weeks; hazard ratio 0.55 (95% CI 0.41 to 0.74); p = 0.000033]. The manufacturer’s economic model to estimate progression-free and overall survival for patients with HER2-positive advanced/metastatic breast cancer who had relapsed following treatment with an anthracycline, a taxane and trastuzumab was appropriate for the disease area. The base-case incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for lapatinib plus capecitabine compared with capecitabine monotherapy or vinorelbine monotherapy were higher than would conventionally be considered cost-effective. When compared with trastuzumab-containing regimes, lapatinib plus capecitabine dominated. In sensitivity analyses the ICER for lapatinib plus capecitabine compared with capecitabine monotherapy or vinorelbine monotherapy was robust to variation in assumptions. In all sensitivity analyses the ICERs remained higher than would conventionally be considered cost-effective. ICERs for trastuzumab-containing regimes were particularly sensitive to assumptions over the frequency of treatment, which had a large effect on the cost-effectiveness of lapatinib plus capecitabine. In conclusion, there was a general lack of evidence on the effectiveness of comparators included in the model and on key parameters such as dose adjustments and the model outputs need to be interpreted in the light of this uncertainty. At the time of writing, NICE were still considering the available evidence for this appraisal.

Infliximab for the treatment of adults with psoriasis

This paper presents a summary of the evidence review group (ERG) report into the clinical and cost-effectiveness of infliximab for the treatment of moderate to severe plaque psoriasis, in accordance with the licensed indication, based on the evidence submission from Schering-Plough to the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) as part of the single technology appraisal (STA) process. The outcomes stated in the manufacturer's definition of the decision problem were severity [Psoriasis Area and Severity Index (PASI) score], remission rates, relapse rates and health-related quality of life. The main evidence in the submission comes from four randomised controlled trials (RCT) comparing infliximab with placebo and eight RCTs comparing either etanercept or efalizumab with placebo. At week 10, patients on infliximab had a significantly higher likelihood of attaining a reduction in PASI score than placebo patients. There were also statistically significant differences between infliximab and placebo in the secondary outcomes. In the comparator trials both the efalizumab and etanercept arms included a significantly higher proportion of patients who achieved a reduction in PASI score at week 12 than the placebo arms. No head-to-head studies were identified directly comparing infliximab with etanercept or efalizumab. The manufacturer carried out an indirect comparison, but the ERG had reservations about the comparison because of the lack of information presented and areas of uncertainty in relation to the included data. The economic model presented by the manufacturer was appropriate for the disease area and given the available data. The cost-effectiveness analysis estimates the mean length of time that an individual would respond to infliximab compared with continuous etanercept and the utility gains associated with this response. The base-case incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for infliximab compared with continuous etanercept for patients with severe psoriasis was 26,095 pounds per quality-adjusted life-year. A one-way sensitivity analysis, a scenario analysis and a probabilistic sensitivity analysis were undertaken by the ERG. The ICER is highly sensitive to assumptions about the costs and frequency of inpatient stays for non-responders of infliximab. The guidance issued by NICE in August 2007 as a result of the STA states that infliximab within its licensed indication is recommended for the treatment of adults with very severe plaque psoriasis, or with psoriasis that has failed to respond to standard systematic therapies. Infliximab treatment should be continued beyond 10 weeks in people whose psoriasis has shown an adequate response to treatment within 10 weeks. In addition, when using the Dermatology Life Quality Index (DLQI), care should be taken to take into account the patient's disabilities, to ensure DLQI continues to be an accurate measure.

Gemcitabine for the treatment of metastatic breast cancer

This paper presents a summary of the evidence review group (ERG) report into the evidence for the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of gemcitabine with paclitaxel for the first-line treatment of metastatic breast cancer (MBC) in patients who have already received chemotherapy treatment with an anthracycline, compared with current standard of care, based upon the manufacturer’s submission to the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) as part of the single technology appraisal (STA) process. The clinical evidence for gemcitabine as a treatment for MBC comes from the unpublished JHQG trial (some data commercial-in-confidence): overall survival was 3 months longer for the gemcitabine/paclitaxel arm (18.5 months) than for the paclitaxel arm (15.8 months) (p = 0.0489); gemcitabine/paclitaxel also improved tumour response and time to documented progression of disease compared with paclitaxel monotherapy, but haematological serious adverse events were more common. In the absence of any formal methods of indirect comparison there is insufficient robust evidence to compare the relative effectiveness of gemcitabine/paclitaxel with docetaxel monotherapy or docetaxel/capecitabine combination therapy. The manufacturers used a Markov state transition model to estimate the effect of treatment with five different chemotherapy regimes, adopting a 3-year time horizon with docetaxel monotherapy as the comparator. Health state utilities for different stages of disease progression and for patients experiencing treatment-related toxicity are used to derive quality-adjusted life expectancy with each treatment. The base-case cost-effectiveness estimate for gemcitabine/paclitaxel versus docetaxel is £17,168 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). When longer survival with docetaxel is assumed in a sensitivity analysis, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) is £30,000 per QALY. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis estimates a 70% probability of gemcitabine/paclitaxel being cost-effective relative to docetaxel at a willingness-to-pay threshold of £35,000. There is considerable uncertainty over the results because of the lack of formal quality assessment or assessment of the comparability of the 15 trials included in the input data, and the questionable validity of the indirect comparison method adopted. An illustrative analysis using a different method for indirect comparison carried out by the ERG produces an ICER of £45,811 per QALY for gemcitabine/paclitaxel versus docetaxel. The guidance issued by NICE in November 2006 as a result of the STA states that gemcitabine in combination with paclitaxel, within its licensed indication, is recommended as an option for the treatment of MBC only when docetaxel monotherapy or docetaxel plus capecitabine is also considered appropriate.

Diagnostic strategies using DNA testing for hereditary haemochromatosis in at-risk populations: a systematic review and economic evaluation

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate DNA testing for detecting hereditary haemochromatosis (HHC) in subgroups of patients suspected of having the disorder and in family members of those diagnosed with HHC.

DATA SOURCES

Major electronic databases, searched from inception to April 2007.

REVIEW METHODS

A systematic review was undertaken using a priori methods and a de novo model developed to assess costs and consequences of DNA testing.

RESULTS

Eleven studies were identified for estimating the clinical validity of genotyping for the C282Y mutation for the diagnosis of HHC. No clinical effectiveness studies meeting the inclusion criteria were identified. Two North American cost-effectiveness studies of reasonable quality were identified but their generalisability to the UK is not clear. Three cohort studies met the inclusion criteria for the review of psychosocial aspects. All had methodological limitations and their generalisability is difficult to determine. The clinical sensitivity of C282Y homozygosity for HHC ranged from 28.4% to 100%, or from 91.3% to 92.4% when considering only the most relevant studies. Clinical specificity ranged from 98.8% to 100%. One study found that gene testing was a cost-effective method of screening relatives of patients with haemochromatosis, whereas the other found that genotyping the spouse of a homozygote was the most cost-efficient strategy. Genetic testing for haemochromatosis appears to be well accepted, is accompanied by few negative psychosocial outcomes and may lead to reduced anxiety. The de novo economic model showed that, in people suspected of having haemochromatosis, the DNA strategy is cost saving compared with the baseline strategy using liver biopsy (cost saved per case detected 123 pounds), largely because of the reduction in liver biopsies. For family testing of siblings the DNA strategy is not cost saving because of the costs of the DNA test (additional cost per case detected 200 pounds). If the cost of the test were to reduce from 100 pounds to 60 pounds, the DNA strategy would be the cheaper one. For family testing of offspring the DNA test strategy is cheaper than the baseline biochemical testing strategy (cost saved per case detected 7982 pounds). Sensitivity analyses showed that the conclusions in each case are robust across all reasonable parameter values.

CONCLUSIONS

The preferred strategy in practice is DNA testing in conjunction with testing iron parameters when there is clear clinical indication of risk for haemochromatosis because of biochemical criteria or when there is familial risk for HHC. Access to genetic testing and centralisation of test provision in expert laboratories would lower the cost of testing, improve the cost-effectiveness of the strategy and improve the quality of information provided to clinicians and patients.

Bortezomib for the treatment of multiple myeloma patients

This paper presents a summary of the evidence review group (ERG) report into the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of bortezomib for the treatment of multiple myeloma patients at first relapse and beyond, in accordance with the licensed indication, based upon the evidence submission from Ortho Biotech to the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) as part of the single technology appraisal (STA) process. The outcomes stated in the manufacturer's definition of the decision problem were time to disease progression, response rate, survival and quality of life. The literature searches for clinical and cost-effectiveness studies were adequate and the one randomised controlled trial (RCT) included was of reasonable quality. Results from the RCT suggest that bortezomib increases survival and time to disease progression compared with high-dose dexamethasone (HDD) in multiple myeloma patients who have had a relapse after one to three treatments. Cost-effectiveness analysis based on the same trial and an observational study was reasonable and gave an estimated cost per life-year gained of 30,750 pounds, which ranged from 27,957 pounds to 36,747 pounds on sensitivity analysis. An attempt was made to replicate the results of the manufacturer's model and to compare the results to the Kaplan-Meier survival curve presented in the manufacturer's submission. In addition, a one-way sensitivity analysis and a probabilistic sensitivity analysis were undertaken, as well as additional scenario analyses. Based on these analyses the ERG suggests that the cost-effectiveness results presented in the manufacturer's submission may underestimate the cost per life-year gained for bortezomib therapy (versus high-dose dexamethasone) when potential UK practice and scenarios are considered. The guidance issued by NICE in June 2006 as a result of the STA states that bortezomib monotherapy for the treatment of relapsed multiple myeloma is clinically effective compared with HDD but has not been shown to be cost-effective and is not recommended for the treatment of progressive multiple myeloma in patients who have received at least one previous therapy and who have undergone, or are unsuitable for, bone marrow transplantation.

Infliximab for the treatment of adults with psoriasis

This paper presents a summary of the evidence review group (ERG) report into the clinical and cost-effectiveness of infliximab for the treatment of moderate to severe plaque psoriasis, in accordance with the licensed indication, based on the evidence submission from Schering-Plough to the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) as part of the single technology appraisal (STA) process. The outcomes stated in the manufacturer’s definition of the decision problem were severity [Psoriasis Area and Severity Index (PASI) score], remission rates, relapse rates and health-related quality of life. The main evidence in the submission comes from four randomised controlled trials (RCT) comparing infliximab with placebo and eight RCTs comparing either etanercept or efalizumab with placebo. At week 10, patients on infliximab had a significantly higher likelihood of attaining a reduction in PASI score than placebo patients. There were also statistically significant differences between infliximab and placebo in the secondary outcomes. In the comparator trials both the efalizumab and etanercept arms included a significantly higher proportion of patients who achieved a reduction in PASI score at week 12 than the placebo arms. No head-to-head studies were identified directly comparing infliximab with etanercept or efalizumab. The manufacturer carried out an indirect comparison, but the ERG had reservations about the comparison because of the lack of information presented and areas of uncertainty in relation to the included data. The economic model presented by the manufacturer was appropriate for the disease area and given the available data. The cost-effectiveness analysis estimates the mean length of time that an individual would respond to infliximab compared with continuous etanercept and the utility gains associated with this response. The base-case incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for infliximab compared with continuous etanercept for patients with severe psoriasis was £26,095 per quality-adjusted life-year. A one-way sensitivity analysis, a scenario analysis and a probabilistic sensitivity analysis were undertaken by the ERG. The ICER is highly sensitive to assumptions about the costs and frequency of inpatient stays for non-responders of infliximab. The guidance issued by NICE in August 2007 as a result of the STA states that infliximab within its licensed indication is recommended for the treatment of adults with very severe plaque psoriasis, or with psoriasis that has failed to respond to standard systematic therapies. Infliximab treatment should be continued beyond 10 weeks in people whose psoriasis has shown an adequate response to treatment within 10 weeks. In addition, when using the Dermatology Life Quality Index (DLQI), care should be taken to take into account the patient’s disabilities, to ensure DLQI continues to be an accurate measure.

Bortezomib for the treatment of multiple myeloma patients

This paper presents a summary of the evidence review group (ERG) report into the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of bortezomib for the treatment of multiple myeloma patients at first relapse and beyond, in accordance with the licensed indication, based upon the evidence submission from Ortho Biotech to the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) as part of the single technology appraisal (STA) process. The outcomes stated in the manufacturer’s definition of the decision problem were time to disease progression, response rate, survival and quality of life. The literature searches for clinical and cost-effectiveness studies were adequate and the one randomised controlled trial (RCT) included was of reasonable quality. Results from the RCT suggest that bortezomib increases survival and time to disease progression compared with high-dose dexamethasone (HDD) in multiple myeloma patients who have had a relapse after one to three treatments. Cost-effectiveness analysis based on the same trial and an observational study was reasonable and gave an estimated cost per life-year gained of £30,750, which ranged from £27,957 to £36,747 on sensitivity analysis. An attempt was made to replicate the results of the manufacturer’s model and to compare the results to the Kaplan–Meier survival curve presented in the manufacturer’s submission. In addition, a one-way sensitivity analysis and a probabilistic sensitivity analysis were undertaken, as well as additional scenario analyses. Based on these analyses the ERG suggests that the cost-effectiveness results presented in the manufacturer’s submission may underestimate the cost per life-year gained for bortezomib therapy (versus high-dose dexamethasone) when potential UK practice and scenarios are considered. The guidance issued by NICE in June 2006 as a result of the STA states that bortezomib monotherapy for the treatment of relapsed multiple myeloma is clinically effective compared with HDD but has not been shown to be cost-effective and is not recommended for the treatment of progressive multiple myeloma in patients who have received at least one previous therapy and who have undergone, or are unsuitable for, bone marrow transplantation.

A decision analysis model for diagnostic strategies using DNA testing for hereditary haemochromatosis in at risk populations

BACKGROUND

New techniques for diagnosing hereditary haemochromatosis (HHC) have become available alongside traditional tests such as liver biopsy and serum iron studies.

AIM

To evaluate DNA tests in people suspected of having haemochromatosis at clinical presentation compared to liver biopsy, and in family members of those diagnosed with haemochromatosis compared to phenotypic iron studies in UK.

METHODS

Decision analytic models were constructed to compare the costs and consequences of the diagnostic strategies for a hypothetical cohort of people with suspected haemochromatosis. For each strategy, the number of cases of haemochromatosis identified and treated and the resources used were estimated.

RESULTS

For diagnostic strategies in people suspected clinically of having haemochromatosis, the DNA strategy is cost saving compared to liver biopsy (cost saved per case detected, 123 pounds) and continues to be so across all ranges of parameters. For family testing, the DNA strategy is cost saving for the offspring of the proband but not for siblings. If the DNA test cost were to reduce by 40% to 60 pounds or, if in the phenotypic model, those with initially normal iron indices were retested twice instead of once, the DNA strategy would be the cheaper one.

CONCLUSION

Diagnostic strategies involving DNA testing are likely to be cost saving in clinical cases with iron overload and in the offspring of index cases. This study supports the UK guideline recommendations for the use of DNA testing in UK.

Medication adherence in heart failure

Barriers to successful medication adherence exist and poor adherence is common. Recurrent admission with chronic conditions should prompt a detailed enquiry into medication adherence.

Cardioprotection against the toxic effects of anthracyclines given to children with cancer: a systematic review

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the technologies used to reduce anthracycline-induced cardiotoxicity in children. Also to evaluate cardiac markers to quantify cardiotoxicity, and identify cost-effectiveness studies and future research priorities.

DATA SOURCES

Eight electronic databases were searched from inception to January 2006. Bibliographies of related papers were assessed for relevant studies and experts contacted to identify additional published references.

REVIEW METHODS

A systematic review of the evidence was undertaken using a priori methods.

RESULTS

Four randomised controlled trials (RCTs) met the inclusion criteria of the review, each considering a different cardioprotective intervention; all trials included children with acute lymphoblastic leukaemia, and one also included children with non-Hodgkin's lymphoma. However, all had methodological limitations. No cost-effectiveness studies were identified. One RCT and six cohort studies on the use of cardiac markers met the inclusion criteria of the review, but also had methodological limitations. Of the two RCTs that considered continuous infusion versus bolus (rapid) infusion, one found that continuous infusion of doxorubicin did not offer any cardioprotection over bolus; the other suggested that continuous infusion of daunorubicin had less cardiotoxicity than bolus. Two studies considered cardioprotective agents, one concluded that dexrazoxane prevents or reduces cardiac injury without compromising the antileukaemic efficacy of doxorubicin and the other reported a protective effect of coenzyme Q10 on cardiac function during anthracycline therapy. One RCT suggested that cardiac troponin T can be used to assess the effectiveness of the cardioprotective agent dexrazoxane. Two cohort studies considering atrial natriuretic peptide and two considering brain (B-type) natriuretic peptide suggested that these chemicals are elevated in some subgroups of children treated with anthracyclines for cancer. N-terminal B-type natriuretic peptide levels were significantly elevated in children treated with anthracyclines who had cardiac dysfunction. One cohort study found that serum lipid peroxide was higher in younger children treated with doxorubicin than correspondingly aged children not receiving doxorubicin. No differences in carnitine levels were found in children treated with doxorubicin and a group of healthy children in one cohort study.

CONCLUSIONS

It is difficult to draw conclusions about the effectiveness of technologies for reducing or preventing cardiotoxicity and about the use of cardiac markers in children as the evidence is limited in quantity and quality. The lack of standardisation for monitoring and reporting cardiac performance is problematic. Not all studies report effectiveness in terms of cardiac outcomes and event-free survival with supporting statistical analyses. Studies are mostly small and of short duration, making generalisation difficult. Increasing numbers of survivors of childhood cancer treated with anthracyclines will experience cardiac damage and require long-term surveillance and management. This will have an impact on cardiac services and costs. Diverse medical problems and other late sequelae that affect cardiac outcome will have an impact on other specialist services. Mechanisms to reduce or prevent cardiotoxicity from anthracycline therapy and cardiac markers to improve monitoring could alter the extent of this impact on service provision. RCTs of the different methods for reducing or preventing cardiotoxicity in children treated with anthracyclines for cancer with long-term follow-up are needed to determine whether the technologies influence the development of cardiac damage. Cost-effectiveness research is also required.