Global survival trends for brain tumors, by histology: analysis of individual records for 556,237 adults diagnosed in 59 countries during 2000-2014 (CONCORD-3)

BACKGROUND

Survival is a key metric of the effectiveness of a health system in managing cancer. We set out to provide a comprehensive examination of worldwide variation and trends in survival from brain tumors in adults, by histology.

METHODS

We analyzed individual data for adults (15-99 years) diagnosed with a brain tumor (ICD-O-3 topography code C71) during 2000-2014, regardless of tumor behavior. Data underwent a 3-phase quality control as part of CONCORD-3. We estimated net survival for 11 histology groups, using the unbiased nonparametric Pohar Perme estimator.

RESULTS

The study included 556,237 adults. In 2010-2014, the global range in age-standardized 5-year net survival for the most common sub-types was broad: in the range 20%-38% for diffuse and anaplastic astrocytoma, from 4% to 17% for glioblastoma, and between 32% and 69% for oligodendroglioma. For patients with glioblastoma, the largest gains in survival occurred between 2000-2004 and 2005-2009. These improvements were more noticeable among adults diagnosed aged 40-70 years than among younger adults.

CONCLUSIONS

To the best of our knowledge, this study provides the largest account to date of global trends in population-based survival for brain tumors by histology in adults. We have highlighted remarkable gains in 5-year survival from glioblastoma since 2005, providing large-scale empirical evidence on the uptake of chemoradiation at population level. Worldwide, survival improvements have been extensive, but some countries still lag behind. Our findings may help clinicians involved in national and international tumor pathway boards to promote initiatives aimed at more extensive implementation of clinical guidelines.

A198 THE LONG-TERM IMPACT OF ENVIRONMENTAL EXPOSURES ON HOST HEALTH AND THE RISK FACTORS OF CROHN'S DISEASE

Background

Several environmental factors are associated with Crohn’s disease (CD) in large case-control studies; however, it is not clear how these factors maybe be influenced by age of exposure and if they are related to alterations in pre-disease biological markers of CD risk.

Purpose

To investigate the association between environmental factors in different age groups with future risk of CD onset and assess their relation to other pre-disease biomarkers.

Method

We used an environmental risk assessment questionnaire (ERA) to collect information from healthy first-degree relatives(FDR) of CD enrolled in the CCC-GEM project. ERA was a multi-item questionnaire querying 69 questions under 7 section headings: background, cultural/ethnic, smoking history, medical history, family history, environmental history and pet history. For the environmental and pet sections, current and historical (<1, 2-4, 5-15 years old) data was captured at the time of recruitment. We used Cox proportional hazard models to identify exposures associated with future CD onset. Next, we used regression models to identify the relationship of exposures with biological factors associated with CD risk previously identified by our group i.e.: i) intestinal permeability using urinary fractional excretion of lactulose to mannitol ratio (LMR) with LMR≥0.025 defined as abnormal; ii) subclinical inflammation using fecal calprotectin (FCP) with FCP≥100µg/g; and iii) fecal microbiome composition and diversity using 16S rDNA sequencing. Two-sided p<0.05 (or false discovery rate corrected p<0.05) were considered significant.

Result(s)

A total of 4289 FDRs were recruited, 47% were male, median recruitment age was 17.0 years[6-35]. After a median follow-up of 5.6-years (IQR=3.42-8.67), 86 FDRs developed CD. Living with a dog between age 5-15 (Hazard Ratio (HR)=0.61; 95% confidence interval (CI)=0.39-0.95), and a large family size (>3) in the first year of life (HR=0.41; 95% CI=0.22-0.89) were protective against CD onset. Conversely, having a bird at time of survey (HR=2.84; CI=1.37-5.90), and having a sibling with CD (HR=2.07; 95% CI=1.18-3.63) were risk factors for CD onset. We found that owning a dog between age of 5-15 (Odd Ratio(OR)=0.77, 95% CI=0.65-0.90) was significantly associated with LMR, nine taxa bacterial and higher chao1 diversity index. Having a bird at time of survey was significantly associated with FCP (OR=2.04, 95% CI=1.33-3.11). There was no association between large family size and having a CD sibling with gut microbiome, FCP or LMR.

Conclusion(s)

The study identified four environmental factors associated with future development of CD. Among them, exposure to dogs during early life was protective against CD onset and might be explained by its association with normal gut permeability and microbiome. We also identified that having a bird at recruitment increased risk of CD onset which might be mediated by an increase in subclinical inflammation.

Submitted on behalf of the CCC-GEM consortium

Disclosure of Interest

None Declared

A39 HEALTHY FIRST-DEGREE RELATIVES FROM MULTIPLEX FAMILIES VERSUS SIMPLEX HARBOR A HIGHER RISK OF DEVELOPING CROHN'S DISEASE AND ARE ASSOCIATED WITH SUBCLINICAL INFLAMMATION AND ALTERED MICROBIOME COMPOSITION

Background

Healthy individuals within families with multiple affected members (multiplex families) with Crohn’s disease (CD) have a notably high risk of developing CD. No large prospective pre-disease cohort has assessed differences in preclinical intestinal inflammation, permeability, fecal microbiome, and genetics in healthy at-risk subjects from multiplex families.

Purpose

We aimed to assess differences in subclinical gut inflammation, genetic risk, gut barrier function, and fecal microbiota composition between first-degree relatives (FDRs) from families with 2 or more affected members (multiplex) and families with only one affected member (simplex). Also, we aimed to assess the risk of future CD onset in subjects from multiplex versus simplex families.

Method

We utilized the GEM Project cohort of healthy FDRs of CD patients. Subclinical gut inflammation was assessed using fecal calprotectin (FCP) at recruitment. Gut barrier function was assessed using the lactulose-to-mannitol ratio (LMR). For assessment of the CD-related genetic risk, CD-polygenic risk scores (CD-PRS) were calculated. Microbiome composition was assessed by sequencing fecal 16S ribosomal RNA. Generalized estimating equations logistic regression and LEfSe (PMID: 21702898) were used to assess the associations between multiplex status and different outcomes. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to assess time-related risk of future onset of CD.

Result(s)

4385 subjects were included. Median age was 17 [IQR 12-24] years, 52.9% were female, 69.4% were siblings and 30.6% were offspring. 4052 (92.4%) and 333 (7.6 %) were simplex and multiplex subjects, respectively. After adjusting for age, sex, family size, and relation to proband, multiplex status was significantly associated with higher baseline FCP (p=0.038), but was not associated with either baseline LMR or CD-PRS (p=0.19 and p=0.33, respectively).

We found no significant differences in alpha diversity (Shannon index) (p=0.57) between simplex and multiplex subjects. Beta diversity analysis assessed by the Bray-Curtis dissimilarity index did not reveal significant differences (R2=3e-04, p=0.607). The genera Eisenbergiella, Eggerthellaceae uncultured, and Morganella, were significantly more abundant in multiplex subjects, whereas Lachnospira, Sutterella, Lachnospiraceae_NK4A136_group, and Lachnospiraceae_UCG_004 less abundant.

The risk of CD onset was significantly higher in multiplex subjects. In multivariable analysis, multiplex status at recruitment was associated with increased risk of CD onset (adjusted HR 3.41, 95% CI 1.70-6.87, p=0.00055), after adjusting for demographics, FCP, LMR, and CD-PRS.

Conclusion(s)

Multiplex status compared to simplex is associated with a 3.4-fold increased risk of CD onset, a higher FCP, and fecal bacterial composition. A comprehensive assessment of environmental factors that increase CD risk in multiplex families remains to be elucidated in future studies.

Disclosure of Interest

None Declared

Future Exploration of the Outer Heliosphere and Very Local Interstellar Medium by Interstellar Probe

A detailed overview of the knowledge gaps in our understanding of the heliospheric interaction with the largely unexplored Very Local Interstellar Medium (VLISM) are provided along with predictions of with the scientific discoveries that await. The new measurements required to make progress in this expanding frontier of space physics are discussed and include in-situ plasma and pick-up ion measurements throughout the heliosheath, direct sampling of the VLISM properties such as elemental and isotopic composition, densities, flows, and temperatures of neutral gas, dust and plasma, and remote energetic neutral atom (ENA) and Lyman-alpha (LYA) imaging from vantage points that can uniquely discern the heliospheric shape and bring new information on the interaction with interstellar hydrogen. The implementation of a pragmatic Interstellar Probe mission with a nominal design life to reach 375 Astronomical Units (au) with likely operation out to 550 au are reported as a result of a 4-year NASA funded mission study.

Sexuality in ADHD: empirical data concerning hypersexual and paraphilic fantasies and behaviors in adults with ADHD

Introduction

ADHD is a neurodevelopmental disorder displaying inattention, hyperactivity, and impulsivity as core symptoms. It can affect several areas of life including sexual health. Clinicians have often made assumptions concerning the bound of specific ADHD symptoms affecting sexual desire by increasing its frequency and intensity. Yet, there is still a lack of knowledge about the comorbidity between ADHD, hypersexuality, and paraphilias. A recent literature review could show that some individuals who suffer from ADHD report about hypersexual and paraphilic fantasies and behaviors, but as far as we know, no clear empirical data has emerged supporting the idea that hypersexuality and paraphilias are more frequent in individuals with ADHD.

Objectives

The present investigation aimed to compare several sexuality related aspects between individuals with and without ADHD.

Methods

Therefore, we designed an extensive online survey based on established questionnaires, such as the Hypersexual Behavior Inventory (HBI). The survey was implemented in a outpatient sample, ADHD specific fora as well as other general online channels.

Results

In total, N = 238 individuals participated in the survey (n = 160 with ADHD). Thereby, individuals with ADHD reported significantly more often about a wide range of hypersexual fantasies and behaviors in comparison to individuals without ADHD. Furthermore, individuals with ADHD reported significantly more often about paraphilic fantasies and behaviors including fetishistic and sadistic sexual fantasies. No differences were found concerning other paraphilias. Further results regarding other facets of sexuality, such as sexual orientation, are to be presented and discussed.

Conclusions

The present study contributes to closing the knowledge gap regarding sexuality in individuals with an ADHD.

Disclosure

No significant relationships.

A176 UTILITY OF MACHINE LEARNING FOR SERUM METABOLOMIC DATA ANALYSIS IN PEDIATRIC CROHN DISEASE

Background

The pathogenesis of pCD remains poorly understood, but evidence suggests roles for genetics, environment, immune response, and gut microbes. Microbial changes can contribute to chronic inflammation and correlate with disease severity. Metabolomics reflects interactions between host immune and gut microbial function by quantifying compounds in biological samples. Therefore, metabolomics provides a unique opportunity to gain insight into pCD pathogenesis.

Aims

To correlate disease severity, metabolites, and clinical data by applying machine learning algorithms in pediatric Crohn Disease (pCD).

Methods

ImageKids is a multicenter, prospective, cohort observational study, conducted to develop magnetic resonance enterography (MRE) indices for pCD. Paired serum specimens were collected at study initiation (Visit One; V1) and completion (Visit Four; V4; 18 months) for 120 pCD patients. Serum from patients with representative clinical scenarios and paired samples was analyzed at The Metabolomics Innovation Centre (TMIC; University of Alberta) and 131 metabolites were identified. Metabolites were analyzed via Unsupervised (U.ML) and Supervised (S.ML) Machine Learning algorithms based on Scikit-learn library in Python. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was used to identify the variation pattern of the patients’ metabolome. Classifiers and regression algorithms were trained to assess correlation with disease activity.

Results

Results were available for the 56 paired samples. U.ML demonstrated distinct metabolome profiles with V1 clustering mainly attributed to aspartic acid, glutamic acid, and kynurenine. V4 clustering was mainly attributed to spermidine, spermine, total dimethylarginine. Furthermore, demographics was found as an important environmental factor driving distinct patterns of the metabolomics profile.

After training different classifiers and regressors with S. ML algorithms, metabolome data were correlated with disease severity (defined by C-reactive protein and fecal calprotectin). Isoleucine, p-hydroxyhippuric acid, and putrescine were the top three compounds associated with disease severity. The accuracy of our classification models was of 80% and the coefficient of determination of our regression models was 0.5

Conclusions

Metabolomic analysis can provide insight into disease pathogenesis and help predict disease severity among pCD patients. The correlation between metabolomics and disease severity might allow a better understanding of changes in host-microbe interactions and introduce new diagnostic or therapeutic options.

Funding Agencies

CIHR

A238 ALTERED GUT MICROBIOME COMPOSITION AND FUNCTION ARE ASSOCIATED WITH GUT BARRIER DYSFUNCTION IN HEALTHY RELATIVES OF CROHN’S DISEASE PATIENTS

Background

The gut microbiome may play a role in gut barrier homeostasis including epithelial barrier function, but data are scarce and limited to animal studies

Aims

To assess if alterations in gut microbiome are associated with gut barrier function

Methods

We utilized the Genetic Environmental Microbial (CCC GEM) cohort of healthy first-degree relatives (FDRs) of Crohn’s disease (CD) patients. Gut barrier function was assessed using the ratio of urinary fractional excretion of lactulose to mannitol (LMR). Stool bacterial DNA was extracted and sequenced for the V4 hypervariable region of the 16S rRNA gene using MiSeq and processed using QIIME2. Microbial functions were imputed using PICRUSt2. The cohort was divided into a North American discovery cohort (n=2,472) and non-North American external validation cohort (n=655). LMR>0.025 was defined as abnormal. LMR-microbiome associations were assessed using multivariable regression model and Random Forest (RF) classifier algorithm. q<0.05 was considered significant when multiple tests were performed

Results

The median age of the entire cohort was 17.0 years [IQR 12.0; 24.0], 52.6% were females and 25.4% had LMR>0.025. In the discovery cohort, subjects with LMR>0.025 had markedly reduced alpha diversity (Chao1 index, estimate= -0.0037, p=4.0e-04) and altered beta diversity (Bray-Curtis dissimilarity index, PERMANOVA: pseudo-F statistic = 2.99, p=1.0e-03). We identified eight bacterial genera and 52 microbial pathways associated with LMR>0.025 (q<0.05). Four genera (decreased Adlercreutzia [odds ratio(OR)=0.74, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.6–0.91], Clostridia-UCG-014 [OR=0.71, 95%CI 0.59–0.86], and Clostridium-sensu-stricto-1 [OR=0.75, 95%CI 0.61–0.92] and increased Colidextribacter [OR=1.65, 95%CI 1.2–2.26]) and eight pathways (including decreased biosynthesis of glutamate [OR=0.4, 95%CI 0.21–0.74], tryptophan [OR=0.06, 95%CI 0.01–0.27] and threonine [OR=0.038, 95%CI 0.003–0.41]) were replicated. Bacterial community composition was associated with gut barrier homeostasis as defined by the RF analysis (p= 1.4e-6)

Conclusions

Gut microbiome community and pathways are associated with gut barrier function. These findings may identify potential microbial targets to modulate barrier function

Submitted on behalf of the CCC-GEM Consortium

Funding Agencies

CCC, CIHRCrohn’s and Colitis Canada Genetics Environment Microbial (CCC-GEM) III; The Leona M. and Harry B. Helmsley Charitable Trust; Kenneth Croitoru is the recipient of the Canada Research Chair in Inflammatory Bowel Diseases

A42 HETEROGENEITY IN EFFICACY AND SAFETY ENDPOINTS FOR PEDIATRIC CLINICAL TRIALS IN INFLAMMATORY BOWEL DISEASE: A NEED FOR HARMONIZATION

NOT PUBLISHED AT AUTHOR’S REQUEST

Funding Agencies: None

A236 ASSOCIATION OF STOOL METABOLOMIC PROFILE AND MICROBIOME COMPOSITION RISK SCORE WITH FUTURE ONSET OF CROHN’S DISEASE

Background

Microbial composition-based risk score (MRS) was recently developed and validated to predict future risk of developing Crohn’s disease (CD) among healthy first-degree relatives (FDR) of CD patients. We hypothesized that stool metabolomic profiles, some of which are linked to the gut microbiome, are associated with future risk of CD.

Aims

To assess the association of stool metabolomic profile with onset of CD and to determine the correlation between stool metabolites and the MRS

Methods

Healthy FDR of CD patients were recruited as part of the nested case-control cohort of the CCC-GEM Project. Healthy FDRs who later developed CD (n=56) were matched approximately 1:1 by age, sex, follow-up duration, and geographical location with control FDRs remaining healthy (n=66). Stool metabolomics were assessed using the Metabolon’s DiscoveryHD4™ platform, and the stool microbiome characterised by 16s rDNA amplicon sequencing. We fitted a multivariable conditional logistic regression model on the disease status as a function of individual stool metabolites. We additionally performed Spearman correlation between each stool metabolite and the MRS.

Results

Among 1,029 stool metabolites that were analyzed, 79 were associated with future risk of CD (p&lt;0.05); however, none remained significant after multiple testing correction (FDR correction). Considering the exploratory nature of this study with limited sample size, we focused on the top seven metabolites associated with CD onset (p&lt;0.01). Of these, two stool metabolites (dimethylglycine, methylmyristate) were associated with increased risk of CD onset while five (cytosine, guanine, cytidine, hydroxyglutarate, nervonate) were associated with decreased risk of developing CD. The two metabolites positively associated with CD onset were positively correlated with the MRS, while the five metabolites negatively associated with CD onset, were negatively correlated with the MRS. Meanwhile, 24 stool metabolites had significant correlation with MRS (FDR-corrected p&lt;0.2). Among those, a total of four stool metabolites (cytosine, guanine, methymyristate, cytidine) overlapped with the top seven stool metabolites associated with CD onset.

Conclusions

Stool metabolite profiles may predict future risk of CD. A subset of these metabolites have significant correlation with the MRS with consistent direction of effect. This may suggest that stool metabolites mediate the putative effect of the gut microbiome on CD risk. Further validation in the full GEM cohort is warranted.

Funding Agencies

CCC, CIHRThe Leona M. and Harry B. Helmsley Charitable Trust; Kenneth Croitoru is the recipient of the Canada Research Chair in Inflammatory Bowel Diseases; Sun-Ho Lee is a recipient of the Imagine/ CIHR/CAG Fellowship Award; Sun-Ho Lee, Juan Antonio Raygoza Garay, and Williams Turpin are recipients of fellowship awards from the Department of Medicine, Mount Sinai Hospital, Toronto, Canada.

Mitral annular dysjunction in surgical mitral valve prolapse

Funding Acknowledgements

Type of funding sources: None.

Introduction

Mitral valve prolapse (MVP) affects 3% of the population and is the leading indication for mitral valve surgery.[1] Mitral annular disjunction (MAD) is a structural abnormality commonly seen in patients with MVP.[2] MAD is defined as an abnormal separation (&gt;5mm) between the left atrial wall-mitral valve junction and the left ventricle myocardium,[2] associated with hypermobility and myxomatous degeneration of the mitral valve leaflets.[3]  There is a paucity of literature regarding MAD, however evidence is growing that it may be associated with ventricular arrhythmia and sudden cardiac death.[3] We examined the prevalence, imaging characteristics and clinical associations of MAD among patients who have undergone mitral valve surgery for MVP.

Methods

Single centre cohort study of consecutive patients undergoing mitral valve surgery for MVP over a 3-year period. Patient baseline characteristics, echocardiographic parameters, surgical outcomes, frequency of arrhythmic events and 3-year cardiac and all-cause mortality were recorded.  Single site data was obtained from a prospective Australia-wide cardiac surgery registry, as well as retrospective analysis of holter-monitor reports, device interrogation and review of medical records. Transthoracic echocardiogram images were re-examined, and parameters re-measured by a qualified examiner.

Results

Among 73 patients with surgical MVP, 20 patients had MAD (27.4%). The median MAD length was 8.1 (IQR 6.8-11.8) mm. The most severely affected patient had a disjunction length of 28 mm. MAD was associated with younger age at surgery (60 vs 66, P = 0.005), female sex (40.0% vs 22.6%, P = 0.138), bileaflet MVP (50% vs 10.6%, P = 0.004) and less cardiovascular comorbidities, including hypertension (25.0% vs 57.7%, P = 0.013) and hypercholesterolaemia (30.0% vs 61.5%, P = 0.016). Patients with MAD had greater mitral valve leaflet lengths, mitral annular diameters, and high-velocity systolic signal on tissue doppler of the mitral valve annulus (pickelhaube sign). Three patients in the MAD positive group had an arrhythmic event (VF or VT) at 3 years compared to one in the MAD negative group. There was no significant difference in 3-year cardiac or all-cause mortality between groups.

Conclusion

MAD is a common anatomical abnormality in patients with surgical MVP, and is easily detected on transthoracic echocardiography. It is associated with younger age at surgery, female sex, bileaflet MVP, increased leaflet length and annulus diameter. There was a signal towards increased arrhythmic events in patients with MAD despite younger age and less cardiovascular risk factors. Large longitudinal studies are needed to further assess the association of MAD with arrhythmic events to help guild appropriate investigation and risk stratification of these patients. Abstract Figure. MAD on Parasternal Long axis view  Abstract Figure. Pickelhaube sign

Photodiagnostic services in the UK and Republic of Ireland: a British Photodermatology Group Workshop Report

BACKGROUND

Photodiagnostic investigations are essential for the accurate diagnosis of abnormal cutaneous photosensitivity and provide important information for the management of patients with photodermatoses (cutaneous photosensitivity disorders). Although photodiagnosis has been undertaken since the early 1970s, specialist services in the United Kingdom (UK) and Republic of Ireland are limited and there is no formal guidance on diagnostic approach. Indeed, there is a limited literature in this area of methodology and diagnostic practice.

OBJECTIVES

The primary objective was to undertake a British Photodermatology Group Workshop to review the role and activities of specialist centres in the UK and Republic of Ireland in order to ascertain whether there were consensus practices. Secondary objectives were to identify key priorities for service, training and research.

METHODS

An initial detailed survey review of current activities was undertaken prior to the Workshop and data from this survey were used to inform discussion at the Workshop, which was attended by key photodermatology experts from the UK and Republic of Ireland.

RESULTS/CONCLUSIONS

We have undertaken a detailed review of current Photodiagnostic Services in the UK and Republic of Ireland and report on our findings from the 12 centres and we have identified key areas of consensus practice. This is an important step in the process of standardising and optimising procedures and protocols and defining minimum clinical standards for photodiagnostic investigations, which are of such diagnostic importance in Dermatology.

POS1206 SEROPREVALENCE OF SARS-CoV-2 ANTIBODIES IN AUTOIMMUNE INFLAMMATORY RHEUMATOLOGIC PATIENTS

Background:

Immune responses in AIIRD patients may be reduced and influenced by immunosuppressive treatments[1].The effect of immunosuppression on the mounting of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in AIIRD is not clear.

Objectives:

To assess the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in AIIRD patients and to define clinical factors affecting this prevalence.

Methods:

Consecutive consenting AIIRD patients from the Rheumatologic department in Tel Aviv Medical Center participated in the study.

Patients answered a questionnaire and were tested for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. A two stage antibody testing was done in order to increase specificity.

Results:

The study included 560 AIIRD patients (229 RA, 149 PsA, 84 SLE, 55 vasculitidies, 40 SpA, 3 other CTD), of them 26 patients were found to have SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies (4.6%) (Table 1). This was more than double than a previous prevalence in the same clinic population studied after the first wave of the pandemic in Israel, which was 2.07% (accepted for publication).

A lower rate of immunosuppression was found for positive SARS-CoV-2 IgG patients compared to negative serology patients (Table 1, p=0.009). There was also a trend for the subgroup of patients on biologic DMARDS (26.92% vs. 47% respectively, p=0.06).

Positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR test was reported and confirmed in 36 patients, of them 14 (38.89%) had negative serology. Patients who did not have antibodies had numerically more than double rates of glucocorticoids and bDMARDs treatment. The time between positive PCR test to positive serology test was significantly shorter (mean±standart deviation 75.57±40.44 days) than the time between positive PCR to negative serology test (130.79±86.47 (p=0.04) (Table 1 and Figure 1) suggesting a fading of the antibody response with time.

Conclusion:

The prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 IgG was 4.6% in a population of AIIRD patients from a single tertiary medical center in Israel. SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence tended to be low among AIIRD patients on immunosuppressive treatment, including in patients with a confirmed history of positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR, similar to other studies [3].

As in individuals without AIIRD, the mounting of SARS-CoV-2 IgG seems to fade with time.

Larger studies are needed to confirm the potential effect of immunosuppression on the antibody response in AIIRDs.

Table 1.

Demographic and clinical characteristics of patients with negative and positive SARS-CoV-2 IgG, and in the subgroup with positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR test

Total population (n=560)Positive PCR population (n=36)Negative IgG(n=534)Positive IgG(n=26)PNegative IgG(n=14)Positive IgG(n=22)PFemale n (%)360 (67.42)22 (84.62)0.0810 (71.43)18 (81.82)0.68Age median (95% CI)57 (54.95-57.58)52.5 (46.55-58.6)0.2342 (35.46-53.11)52.5 (47.62-60.65)0.06No. of comorbiditiesmean±STD (95%CI)0.88±1.15 (0.78-0.98)0.92±1.2 (0.44-1.41)0.860.79±1.12 (0.14-1.43)0.96±1.3 (0.4-1.51)0.68AIIRD treatments n(%)Total immunosuppression401 (75.09)13 (50)0.00911 (78.57)12 (54.54)0.175GC113 (21.16)3 (11.54)0.325 (35.71)3 (13.64)0.32csDMARDS257 (48.13)13 (50)17 (50)13 (59.09)0.73bDMARDS251 (47)7 (26.92)0.069 (64.29)7 (31.82)0.09Anti CD-2036 (6.74)00.41 (7.14)00.39

SARS-CoV-2, severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2; IgG, immunoglobulin G; PCR, polymerase chain reaction; n, number; 95%CI, 95% confidence interval; GC, glucocorticoids; csDMARDS, conventional synthetic disease modifying antirheumatic drugs; bDMARDS, biologic disease modifying antirheumatic drugs.

References:

[1]V. Furer et al., “Incidence and prevalence of vaccine preventable infections in adult patients with autoimmune inflammatory rheumatic diseases (AIIRD): a systemic literature review informing the 2019 update of the EULAR recommendations for vaccination in adult patients wit,” RMD Open, vol. 5, no. 2, p. e001041, Sep. 2019.

[2]D. Simon et al., “Patients with immune-mediated inflammatory diseases receiving cytokine inhibitors have low prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 seroconversion,” Nat. Commun., vol. 11, no. 1, pp. 1–7, 2020.

Acknowledgements:

This study was performed in collaboration with the Israeli Ministry of Health.

Disclosure of Interests:

None declared.

An epidemiological investigation of COVID-19 outbreaks in a group of care homes in Wales, UK: a retrospective cohort study

Background

This study describes the epidemiology of COVID-19 outbreaks in four care homes in terms of spread, severity, presentation and interventions.

Methods

Participants were 100 residents and 102 staff from four co-located care homes in Wales. Data were collected from the homes and Public Health Wales, including demographics, presentations, test status and results, hospital admissions and deaths. Genomic sequencing of confirmed case samples was completed, where possible. Epi-curves, crude attack rates, a Kaplan-Meier survival curve and adjusted hazard ratios were calculated using R.

Results

About 14 confirmed and 43 possible resident cases, 23 confirmed and 47 possible staff cases occurred. Crude attack rates of possible and confirmed cases were 57% (residents) and 69% (staff). Genomic sequencing for 10 confirmed case PCR samples identified at least 5 different UK lineages of COVID-19.42 (42%) residents died, 23 (55%) with COVID-19 or suspected COVID-19 recorded on the death certificate. The hazard ratio for death amongst resident possible and confirmed cases compared to null cases, adjusting for age and sex, was 13.26 (95% CI 5.61–31.34).

Conclusions

There were extensive outbreaks of COVID-19 in these homes with high crude attack rates and deaths. Universal testing and early isolation of residents are recommended.

Long-term cost-effectiveness of screening for fracture risk in a UK primary care setting: the SCOOP study

Community-based screening and treatment of women aged 70-85 years at high fracture risk reduced fractures; moreover, the screening programme was cost-saving. The results support a case for a screening programme of fracture risk in older women in the UK.

INTRODUCTION

The SCOOP (screening for prevention of fractures in older women) randomized controlled trial investigated whether community-based screening could reduce fractures in women aged 70-85 years. The objective of this study was to estimate the long-term cost-effectiveness of screening for fracture risk in a UK primary care setting compared with usual management, based on the SCOOP study.

METHODS

A health economic Markov model was used to predict the life-time consequences in terms of costs and quality of life of the screening programme compared with the control arm. The model was populated with costs related to drugs, administration and screening intervention derived from the SCOOP study. Fracture risk reduction in the screening arm compared with the usual management arm was derived from SCOOP. Modelled fracture risk corresponded to the risk observed in SCOOP.

RESULTS

Screening of 1000 patients saved 9 hip fractures and 20 non-hip fractures over the remaining lifetime (mean 14 years) compared with usual management. In total, the screening arm saved costs (£286) and gained 0.015 QALYs/patient in comparison with usual management arm.

CONCLUSIONS

This analysis suggests that a screening programme of fracture risk in older women in the UK would gain quality of life and life years, and reduce fracture costs to more than offset the cost of running the programme.

Screening for high hip fracture risk does not impact on falls risk: a post hoc analysis from the SCOOP study

A reduction in hip fracture incidence following population screening might reflect the effectiveness of anti-osteoporosis therapy, behaviour change to reduce falls, or both. This post hoc analysis demonstrates that identifying high hip fracture risk by FRAX was not associated with any alteration in falls risk.

INTRODUCTION

To investigate whether effectiveness of an osteoporosis screening programme to reduce hip fractures was mediated by modification of falls risk in the screening arm.

METHODS

The SCOOP study recruited 12,483 women aged 70-85 years, individually randomised to a control (n = 6250) or screening (n = 6233) arm; in the latter, osteoporosis treatment was recommended to women at high risk of hip fracture, while the control arm received usual care. Falls were captured by self-reported questionnaire. We determined the influence of baseline risk factors on future falls, and then examined for differences in falls risk between the randomisation groups, particularly in those at high fracture risk.

RESULTS

Women sustaining one or more falls were slightly older at baseline than those remaining falls free during follow-up (mean difference 0.70 years, 95%CI 0.55-0.85, p < 0.001). A higher FRAX 10-year probability of hip fracture was associated with increased likelihood of falling, with fall risk increasing by 1-2% for every 1% increase in hip fracture probability. However, falls risk factors were well balanced between the study arms and, importantly, there was no evidence of a difference in falls occurrence. In particular, there was no evidence of interaction (p = 0.18) between baseline FRAX hip fracture probabilities and falls risk in the two arms, consistent with no impact of screening on falls in women informed to be at high risk of hip fracture.

CONCLUSION

Effectiveness of screening for high FRAX hip fracture probability to reduce hip fracture risk was not mediated by a reduction in falls.

Continuum of HIV care of newly diagnosed individuals in Israel, 2011-2015: a population-based cohort study

Our aim was to assess the linkage to care (LTC) and treatment for people newly diagnosed with HIV in Israel during 2011–2015. The Ministry of Health estimated the annual prevalence of undiagnosed HIV; new diagnoses were identified by the Central Virology Laboratory. Only adult Israeli citizens were included. LTC at HIV centers within 90 days of diagnosis was assessed. Demographic and clinical data were collected from patient files. A total of 1538 individuals were diagnosed in 2011–2015. A moderate improvement over time was observed in the calculated proportions of undiagnosed individuals (23.1–17.3%) but no change occurred in LTC rates (82.6–81%). The proportion of diagnosed patients initiating treatment within six months increased from 54.7% in 2011 to 89.7% in 2015, with a parallel increase in the viral suppression rate from 30.5% in 2011 to 59.9% in 2015. Of 1159 patients with detailed records, 79.4% were men, median age 36 years (16–92), median CD4 cell count 342 cells/µl. Younger age, intravenous drug use, and imprisonment were independent risk factors for loss to follow-up. HIV is diagnosed late in Israel and LTC rates remain stagnated; higher awareness is still needed. Once in care, however, treatment and outcomes were in line with international standards.

The PROCLIPI international registry of early-stage mycosis fungoides identifies substantial diagnostic delay in most patients

BACKGROUND

Survival in mycosis fungoides (MF) is varied and may be poor. The PROCLIPI (PROspective Cutaneous Lymphoma International Prognostic Index) study is a web-based data collection system for early-stage MF with legal data-sharing agreements permitting international collaboration in a rare cancer with complex pathology. Clinicopathological data must be 100% complete and in-built intelligence in the database system ensures accurate staging.

OBJECTIVES

To develop a prognostic index for MF.

METHODS

Predefined datasets for clinical, haematological, radiological, immunohistochemical, genotypic, treatment and quality of life are collected at first diagnosis of MF and annually to test against survival. Biobanked tissue samples are recorded within a Federated Biobank for translational studies.

RESULTS

In total, 430 patients were enrolled from 29 centres in 15 countries spanning five continents. Altogether, 348 were confirmed as having early-stage MF at central review. The majority had classical MF (81·6%) with a CD4 phenotype (88·2%). Folliculotropic MF was diagnosed in 17·8%. Most presented with stage I (IA: 49·4%; IB: 42·8%), but 7·8% presented with enlarged lymph nodes (stage IIA). A diagnostic delay between first symptom development and initial diagnosis was frequent [85·6%; median delay 36 months (interquartile range 12-90)]. This highlights the difficulties in accurate diagnosis, which includes lack of a singular diagnostic test for MF.

CONCLUSIONS

This confirmed early-stage MF cohort is being followed-up to identify prognostic factors, which may allow better management and improve survival by identifying patients at risk of disease progression. This study design is a useful model for collaboration in other rare diseases, especially where pathological diagnosis can be complex.

The prevalence of mental disorders in incarcerated contact sexual offenders

OBJECTIVE

Mental disorders in sexual offenders are relevant in terms of risk assessment and psychotherapeutic and pharmacological treatment.

METHODS

The present cross-sectional study was conducted between 2001 and 2017 and included 1511 sexual offenders who were assessed at the Federal Evaluation Center for Sexual and Violent Offenders in the Austrian Prison System. All sexual offenders were assessed with the Structured Clinical Interview for Axis I (SCID I) and Axis II disorders (SCID II).

RESULTS

N = 1250 (92.9%) sexual offenders were diagnosed with a mental disorder, whereby the great majority received multiple diagnoses. The most frequently found disorders were alcohol misuse (40.0%), paraphilic (43.3%), and personality disorders (53.6%) with a special emphasis on Cluster B personality disorders (47.8%). While sexual offenders against children were more likely to be diagnosed with paraphilic disorders, sexual offenders against adults were more likely to be diagnosed with a personality disorder.

CONCLUSION

Prevalence rates of mental disorders in sexual offenders are considerable. Besides specific risk reducing treatment, the psychological and social sequelae of the mental disorder have to be addressed in interventions in order to reach an effective and sustainable risk reduction.

Implementing Intensive Insulin Therapy: Development and Audit of the Bath Insulin Protocol

Intensive insulin therapy to control blood glucose has been found to reduce mortality among critically ill patients in a surgical intensive care unit, though a simple prescriptive insulin infusion protocol to achieve this has not been published previously. This study documents the development and routine use of a simple prescriptive intravenous insulin infusion protocol for critically ill patients and compares the results with previous practice. During development the protocol was optimized and practical issues of implementation addressed. The optimized protocol was then used for all ICU admissions, and a prospectively defined retrospective chart audit performed for the first month of use. Results were compared with a similar time period the previous year. In September 2002, 27 admissions were started on the protocol. Blood glucose for the time on the protocol had a median value of 6.2 (IQR 5.9-7.1) mmol/l compared with 9.2 (IQR 8.1-10.2) mmol/l for those on insulin in 2001. Blood glucose for the whole ICU stay for those on the protocol in 2002 had a median value of 6.6 (IQR 6.0-7.4) mmol/l compared with 8.6 (IQR 8.0-9.4) mmol/l in 2001. Blood glucose for all ICU patients in 2002 had a median value of 6.5 (IQR 6.0-7.3) mmol/l compared with 7.2 (IQR 6.3-8.3) mmol/l in 2001.

Three blood glucose recordings were less than 2.2 mmol/l in September 2002. This study provides initial effectiveness and safety data for the Bath Insulin Protocol. Further audits in a larger patient population are now needed.

Identification and characterization of HIV positive Ethiopian elite controllers in both Africa and Israel

OBJECTIVES

HIV elite controllers (ECs) are a unique subgroup of HIV-positive patients who are long-term virologically suppressed in the absence of antiretroviral treatment (ART). The prevalence of this subgroup is estimated to be < 1%. Various cohorts of ECs have been described in developed countries, most of which have been demographically heterogeneous. The aim of this study was to identify ECs in two large African cohorts and to estimate their prevalence in a relatively genetically homogenous population.

METHODS

We screened two cohorts of HIV-positive Ethiopian patients. The first cohort resided in Mekelle, Ethiopia. The second was comprised of HIV-positive Ethiopian immigrants in Israel. In the Mekelle cohort, ART-naïve subjects with stable CD4 counts were prospectively screened using two measurements of viral load 6 months apart. Subjects were defined as ECs when both measurements were undetectable. In the Israeli cohort, subjects with consistently undetectable viral loads (mean of 17 viral load measurements/patient) and stable CD4 count > 500 cells/μL were defined as ECs.

RESULTS

In the Mekelle cohort, 16 of 9515 patients (0.16%) fitted the definition of EC, whereas seven of 1160 (0.6%) in the Israeli cohort were identified as ECs (P = 0.011).

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first large-scale screening for HIV-positive ECs to be performed in entirely African cohorts. The overall prevalence of ECs is within the range of that previously described in developing countries. The significant difference in prevalence between the two cohorts of similar genetic background is probably a consequence of selection bias but warrants further investigation into possible environmental factors which may underlie the EC state.

Global Health Strategy for Cancer: Think Globally, Act Locally! Building a Collaborative Partnership Between Manitoba (Canada) and Jaffna (Sri Lanka)

Background and context: The number of people diagnosed with cancer worldwide is estimated to double by 2035. The greatest increase is expected in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) due to demographic changes, such as ageing and growing populations, and increasing exposure to risk factors. Approximately 8.8 million people die each year of cancer, or one in 6 deaths globally. The Canadian government has recently renewed its commitment as a progressive global citizen with efforts including improvement of global health equity. CancerCare Manitoba is the provincial agency responsible for cancer and blood disorders, including the delivery of a wide range of clinical services from prevention to screening to treatment and supportive services, as well as cancer surveillance, research, and education. CancerCare Manitoba has identified potential partnerships with governments, nongovernmental organizations, academic institutions, and funders to address current and future challenges related to global cancer control. This includes several LMIC partners who have expressed an interest in working with Manitoba on cancer-related issues. In this presentation, we will describe our plans and early experience with a team from the University of Jaffna, the northern region of Sri Lanka. With a focus initially on surveillance and cancer control planning, there is an excellent opportunity for mutual learning and advancement of programs for cancer surveillance and planning. Aim: To establish a local partnership by connecting Manitoba, Canada with an engaged team from the University of Jaffna, Sri Lanka to advance cancer surveillance and planning, and contribute to the “global war on cancer”. Strategy/Tactics: A phased approach is being taken to address locally identified needs for cancer control. CancerCare Manitoba staff will be part of the mentorship team working with local partners in Jaffna to ensure development of local capacity. Specifically, we will: initiate cancer surveillance and establish a cancer registry in Jaffna (building from a cross-sectional study → hospital based registry → regional registry); analyze data and report on patterns; and establish a strategic plan for cancer control. Program/Policy process: Early planning is underway, involving collaborators from Manitoba and Jaffna. A project proposal has been developed to provide scope and acquire seed funding. Outcomes: Success will be determined based on the context of each program, including: establishing a framework for cancer surveillance; satisfaction of local and international partners (e.g., the Global Cancer Surveillance unit at the International Agency for Research in Cancer); and production of reports as a basis for cancer control. What was learned: Early learnings include the importance of local engagement and dedicated mentorship to advance global health equity, manage challenges around (sustained) funding, and establish a foundation of motivated partners.

Malignancy and mortality in paediatric-onset inflammatory bowel disease: a 3-year prospective, multinational study from the paediatric IBD Porto group of ESPGHAN

BACKGROUND

Risk benefit strategies in managing inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD) are dependent upon understanding the risks of uncontrolled inflammation vs those of treatments. Malignancy and mortality in IBD have been associated with disease-related inflammation and immune suppression, but data are limited due to their rare occurrence.

AIM

To identify and describe the most common causes of mortality, types of cancer and previous or current therapy among children and young adults with paediatric-onset IBD.

METHODS

Information on paediatric-onset IBD patients diagnosed with malignancy or mortality was prospectively collected via a survey in 25 countries over a 42-month period. Patients were included if death or malignancy occurred after IBD diagnosis but before the age of 26 years.

RESULTS

In total, 60 patients were identified including 43 malignancies and 26 fatal cases (9 due to cancer). Main causes of fatality were malignancies (n = 9), IBD or IBD-therapy related nonmalignant causes (n = 10; including 5 infections), and suicides (n = 3). Three cases, all fatal, of hepatosplenic T-cell lymphoma were identified, all were biologic-naïve but thiopurine-exposed. No other haematological malignancies were fatal. The 6 other fatal cancer cases included 3 colorectal adenocarcinomas and 3 cholangiocarcinomas (CCAs). Primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) was present in 5 (56%) fatal cancers (1 colorectal carcinoma, 3 CCAs and 1 hepatosplenic T-cell lymphoma).

CONCLUSIONS

We report the largest number of paediatric-onset IBD patients with cancer and/or fatal outcomes to date. Malignancies followed by infections were the major causes of mortality. We identified PSC as a significant risk factor for cancer-associated mortality. Disease-related adenocarcinomas were a commoner cause of death than lymphomas.

Central nervous system relapse of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma in the rituximab era: results of the UK NCRI R-CHOP-14 versus 21 trial

Background

Central nervous system (CNS) relapse of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) is associated with a dismal prognosis. Here, we report an analysis of CNS relapse for patients treated within the UK NCRI phase III R-CHOP (rituximab, cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, vincristine and prednisolone) 14 versus 21 randomised trial.

Patients and methods

The R-CHOP 14 versus 21 trial compared R-CHOP administered two- versus three weekly in previously untreated patients aged ≥18 years with bulky stage I–IV DLBCL (n = 1080). Details of CNS prophylaxis were retrospectively collected from participating sites. The incidence and risk factors for CNS relapse including application of the CNS-IPI were evaluated.

Results

177/984 patients (18.0%) received prophylaxis (intrathecal (IT) methotrexate (MTX) n = 163, intravenous (IV) MTX n = 2, prophylaxis type unknown n = 11 and IT MTX and cytarabine n = 1). At a median follow-up of 6.5 years, 21 cases of CNS relapse (isolated n = 11, with systemic relapse n = 10) were observed, with a cumulative incidence of 1.9%. For patients selected to receive prophylaxis, the incidence was 2.8%. Relapses predominantly involved the brain parenchyma (81.0%) and isolated leptomeningeal involvement was rare (14.3%). Univariable analysis demonstrated the following risk factors for CNS relapse: performance status 2, elevated lactate dehydrogenase, IPI, >1 extranodal site of disease and presence of a ‘high-risk’ extranodal site. Due to the low number of events no factor remained significant in multivariate analysis. Application of the CNS-IPI revealed a high-risk group (4-6 risk factors) with a 2- and 5-year incidence of CNS relapse of 5.2% and 6.8%, respectively.

Conclusion

Despite very limited use of IV MTX as prophylaxis, the incidence of CNS relapse following R-CHOP was very low (1.9%) confirming the reduced incidence in the rituximab era. The CNS-IPI identified patients at highest risk for CNS recurrence.

ClinicalTrials.gov

ISCRTN number 16017947 (R-CHOP14v21); EudraCT number 2004-002197-34.

Outcome of elderly patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma treated with R-CHOP: results from the UK NCRI R-CHOP14v21 trial with combined analysis of molecular characteristics with the DSHNHL RICOVER-60 trial

BACKGROUND

There is an on-going debate whether 2- or 3-weekly administration of R-CHOP is the preferred first-line treatment for elderly patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL). The UK NCRI R-CHOP14v21 randomized phase 3 trial did not demonstrate a difference in outcomes between R-CHOP-14 and R-CHOP-21 in newly diagnosed DLBCL patients aged 19-88 years, but data on elderly patients have not been reported in detail so far. Here, we provide a subgroup analysis of patients ≥60 years treated on the R-CHOP14v21 trial with extended follow-up.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Six hundred and four R-CHOP14v21 patients ≥60 years were included in this subgroup analysis, with a median follow-up of 77.7 months. To assess the impact of MYC rearrangements (MYC-R) and double-hit-lymphoma (DHL) on outcome in elderly patients, we performed a joint analysis of cases with available molecular data from the R-CHOP14v21 (N = 217) and RICOVER-60 (N = 204) trials.

RESULTS

Elderly DLBCL patients received high dose intensities with median total doses of ≥98% for all agents. Toxicities were similar in both arms with the exception of more grade ≥3 neutropenia (P < 0.0001) and fewer grade ≥3 thrombocytopenia (P = 0.05) in R-CHOP-21 versus R-CHOP-14. The elderly patient population had a favorable 5-year overall survival (OS) of 69% (95% CI: 65-73). We did not identify any subgroup of patients that showed differential response to either regimen. In multivariable analysis including individual factors of the IPI, gender, bulk, B2M and albumin levels, only age and B2M were of independent prognostic significance for OS. Molecular analyses demonstrated a significant impact of MYC-R (HR = 1.96; 95% CI: 1.22-3.16; P = 0.01) and DHL (HR = 2.21; 95% CI: 1.18-4.11; P = 0.01) on OS in the combined trial cohorts, independent of other prognostic factors.

CONCLUSIONS

Our data support equivalence of both R-CHOP application forms in elderly DLBCL patients. Elderly MYC-R and DHL patients have inferior prognosis and should be considered for alternative treatment approaches.

TRIAL NUMBERS

ISCRTN 16017947 (R-CHOP14v21); NCT00052936 (RICOVER-60).