Global survival trends for brain tumors, by histology: analysis of individual records for 556,237 adults diagnosed in 59 countries during 2000-2014 (CONCORD-3)

BACKGROUND

Survival is a key metric of the effectiveness of a health system in managing cancer. We set out to provide a comprehensive examination of worldwide variation and trends in survival from brain tumors in adults, by histology.

METHODS

We analyzed individual data for adults (15-99 years) diagnosed with a brain tumor (ICD-O-3 topography code C71) during 2000-2014, regardless of tumor behavior. Data underwent a 3-phase quality control as part of CONCORD-3. We estimated net survival for 11 histology groups, using the unbiased nonparametric Pohar Perme estimator.

RESULTS

The study included 556,237 adults. In 2010-2014, the global range in age-standardized 5-year net survival for the most common sub-types was broad: in the range 20%-38% for diffuse and anaplastic astrocytoma, from 4% to 17% for glioblastoma, and between 32% and 69% for oligodendroglioma. For patients with glioblastoma, the largest gains in survival occurred between 2000-2004 and 2005-2009. These improvements were more noticeable among adults diagnosed aged 40-70 years than among younger adults.

CONCLUSIONS

To the best of our knowledge, this study provides the largest account to date of global trends in population-based survival for brain tumors by histology in adults. We have highlighted remarkable gains in 5-year survival from glioblastoma since 2005, providing large-scale empirical evidence on the uptake of chemoradiation at population level. Worldwide, survival improvements have been extensive, but some countries still lag behind. Our findings may help clinicians involved in national and international tumor pathway boards to promote initiatives aimed at more extensive implementation of clinical guidelines.

Dietary fatty acids and endometrial cancer risk within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition

BACKGROUND

Diet may impact important risk factors for endometrial cancer such as obesity and inflammation. However, evidence on the role of specific dietary factors is limited. We investigated associations between dietary fatty acids and endometrial cancer risk in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC).

METHODS

This analysis includes 1,886 incident endometrial cancer cases and 297,432 non-cases. All participants were followed up for a mean of 8.8 years. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of endometrial cancer across quintiles of individual fatty acids estimated from various food sources quantified through food frequency questionnaires in the entire EPIC cohort. The false discovery rate (q-values) was computed to control for multiple comparisons.

RESULTS

Consumption of n-6 γ-linolenic acid was inversely associated with endometrial cancer risk (HR comparing 5th with 1st quintileQ5-Q1=0.77, 95% CI = 0.64; 0.92, ptrend=0.01, q-value = 0.15). This association was mainly driven by γ-linolenic acid derived from plant sources (HRper unit increment=0.94, 95%CI= (0.90;0.98), p = 0.01) but not from animal sources (HRper unit increment= 1.00, 95%CI = (0.92; 1.07), p = 0.92). In addition, an inverse association was found between consumption of n-3 α-linolenic acid from vegetable sources and endometrial cancer risk (HRper unit increment= 0.93, 95%CI = (0.87; 0.99), p = 0.04). No significant association was found between any other fatty acids (individual or grouped) and endometrial cancer risk.

CONCLUSION

Our results suggest that higher consumption of γ-linolenic acid and α-linoleic acid from plant sources may be associated with lower risk of endometrial cancer.

Dietary intake of advanced glycation end products (AGEs) and changes in body weight in European adults

PURPOSE

Advanced glycation end products (AGEs) can be formed in foods by the reaction of reducing sugars with proteins, and have been shown to induce insulin resistance and obesity in experimental studies. We examined the association between dietary AGEs intake and changes in body weight in adults over an average of 5 years of follow-up.

METHODS

A total of 255,170 participants aged 25-70 years were recruited in ten European countries (1992-2000) in the PANACEA study (Physical Activity, Nutrition, Alcohol, Cessation of smoking, Eating out of home in relation to Anthropometry), a sub-cohort of the EPIC (European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition). Body weight was measured at recruitment and self-reported between 2 and 11 years later depending on the study center. A reference database for AGEs was used containing UPLC-MS/MS-measured Nε-(carboxymethyl)-lysine (CML), Nε-(1-carboxyethyl)-lysine (CEL), and Nδ-(5-hydro-5-methyl-4-imidazolon-2-yl)-ornithine (MG-H1) in 200 common European foods. This reference database was matched to foods and decomposed recipes obtained from country-specific validated dietary questionnaires in EPIC and intake levels of CEL, CML, and MG-H1 were estimated. Associations between dietary AGEs intake and body weight change were estimated separately for each of the three AGEs using multilevel mixed linear regression models with center as random effect and dietary AGEs intake and relevant confounders as fixed effects.

RESULTS

A one-SD increment in CEL intake was associated with 0.111 kg (95% CI 0.087-0.135) additional weight gain over 5 years. The corresponding additional weight gain for CML and MG-H1 was 0.065 kg (0.041-0.089) and 0.034 kg (0.012, 0.057), respectively. The top six food groups contributing to AGEs intake, with varying proportions across the AGEs, were cereals/cereal products, meat/processed meat, cakes/biscuits, dairy, sugar and confectionary, and fish/shellfish.

CONCLUSION

In this study of European adults, higher intakes of AGEs were associated with marginally greater weight gain over an average of 5 years of follow-up.

Socio-economic position across the lifecourse and risk of breast cancer: findings from EPIC-Italy

Backgrounds

Socio-economic position (SEP) is linked to many health outcomes but the link between SEP and breast cancer (BC) is complex. This study explores the relationship between SEP from early life and future risk of BC.

Methods

We used data from the Italian component of the European prospective investigation into cancer and nutrition: EPIC-Italy (up to 26,391 women). Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate the association between measures of life course SEP (father’s occupation, educational level, highest household occupation) with risk of BC, adjusting for health behaviours (smoking, alcohol, physical activity, Mediterranean diet), height, weight and reproductive factors (postmenopausal status, age at first full term pregnancy). To mimic life course experiences, we analysed the relationship between father’s occupation and risk of BC, sequentially adjusting for SEP in young adulthood and adulthood, as well as the impact of social mobility.

Results

We observed a significant association between father’s occupation and risk of BC, where participant with low SEP had lower risk to develop BC (HR[95%CI] = 0.88[0.78; 0.99]). This association was borderline significant when we analysed educational level and highest household occupation. These associations were only slightly modified after adjustment for health behaviours, height and weight but more strongly affected by reproductive factors. However, the association between father’s occupation and BC remained borderline significant in the fully adjusted model (HR[95%CI] = 0.91[0.80; 1.03]). Stable low trajectory showed a lower risk of BC (HR[95%CI] = 0.82[0.71; 0.96]) slightly attenuated after adjusted for reproductive factors (HR[95%CI] = 0.88 [0.75; 1.03]).

Conclusions

Our findings suggest that low early-life SEP and stable low trajectory are associated with a lower risk of BC, which is partly explained by reproductive factors.

Key messages

Low early life socioeconomic position and stable low trajectory are associated with a lower risk of BC. Reproductive factors, especially age at the first full term pregnancy, explain part of these associations.

The role of plasma microseminoprotein-beta in prostate cancer: an observational nested case-control and Mendelian randomization study in the European prospective investigation into cancer and nutrition

BACKGROUND

Microseminoprotein-beta (MSP), a protein secreted by the prostate epithelium, may have a protective role in the development of prostate cancer. The only previous prospective study found a 2% reduced prostate cancer risk per unit increase in MSP. This work investigates the association of MSP with prostate cancer risk using observational and Mendelian randomization (MR) methods.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A nested case-control study was conducted with the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) with 1871 cases and 1871 matched controls. Conditional logistic regression analysis was used to investigate the association of pre-diagnostic circulating MSP with risk of incident prostate cancer overall and by tumour subtype. EPIC-derived estimates were combined with published data to calculate an MR estimate using two-sample inverse-variance method.

RESULTS

Plasma MSP concentrations were inversely associated with prostate cancer risk after adjusting for total prostate-specific antigen concentration [odds ratio (OR) highest versus lowest fourth of MSP = 0.65, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.51-0.84, Ptrend = 0.001]. No heterogeneity in this association was observed by tumour stage or histological grade. Plasma MSP concentrations were 66% lower in rs10993994 TT compared with CC homozygotes (per allele difference in MSP: 6.09 ng/ml, 95% CI 5.56-6.61, r2=0.42). MR analyses supported a potentially causal protective association of MSP with prostate cancer risk (OR per 1 ng/ml increase in MSP for MR: 0.96, 95% CI 0.95-0.97 versus EPIC observational: 0.98, 95% CI 0.97-0.99). Limitations include lack of complete tumour subtype information and more complete information on the biological function of MSP.

CONCLUSIONS

In this large prospective European study and using MR analyses, men with high circulating MSP concentration have a lower risk of prostate cancer. MSP may play a causally protective role in prostate cancer.

Circulating plasma phospholipid fatty acids and risk of pancreatic cancer in a large European cohort

There are both limited and conflicting data on the role of dietary fat and specific fatty acids in the development of pancreatic cancer. In this study, we investigated the association between plasma phospholipid fatty acids and pancreatic cancer risk in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. The fatty acid composition was measured by gas chromatography in plasma samples collected at recruitment from375 incident pancreatic cancer cases and375 matched controls. Associations of specific fatty acids with pancreatic cancer risk were evaluated using multivariable conditional logistic regression models with adjustment for established pancreatic cancer risk factors. Statistically significant inverse associations were found between pancreatic cancer incidence and levels of heptadecanoic acid (ORT3-T1 [odds ratio for highest versus lowest tertile] =0.63; 95%CI[confidence interval] = 0.41-0.98; ptrend = 0.036), n-3 polyunsaturated α-linolenic acid (ORT3-T1 = 0.60; 95%CI = 0.39-0.92; ptrend = 0.02) and docosapentaenoic acid (ORT3-T1 = 0.52; 95%CI = 0.32-0.85; ptrend = 0.008). Industrial trans-fatty acids were positively associated with pancreatic cancer risk among men (ORT3-T1 = 3.00; 95%CI = 1.13-7.99; ptrend = 0.029), while conjugated linoleic acids were inversely related to pancreatic cancer among women only (ORT3-T1 = 0.37; 95%CI = 0.17-0.81; ptrend = 0.008). Among current smokers, the long-chain n-6/n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids ratio was positively associated with pancreatic cancer risk (ORT3-T1 = 3.40; 95%CI = 1.39-8.34; ptrend = 0.007). Results were robust to a range of sensitivity analyses. Our findings suggest that higher circulating levels of saturated fatty acids with an odd number of carbon atoms and n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids may be related to lower risk of pancreatic cancer. The influence of some fatty acids on the development of pancreatic cancer may be sex-specific and modulated by smoking.

Trends in incidence of thick, thin and in situ melanoma in Europe

BACKGROUND

We analysed trends in incidence for in situ and invasive melanoma in some European countries during the period 1995-2012, stratifying for lesion thickness.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Individual anonymised data from population-based European cancer registries (CRs) were collected and combined in a common database, including information on age, sex, year of diagnosis, histological type, tumour location, behaviour (invasive, in situ) and lesion thickness. Mortality data were retrieved from the publicly available World Health Organization database.

RESULTS

Our database covered a population of over 117 million inhabitants and included about 415,000 skin lesions, recorded by 18 European CRs (7 of them with national coverage). During the 1995-2012 period, we observed a statistically significant increase in incidence for both invasive (average annual percent change (AAPC) 4.0% men; 3.0% women) and in situ (AAPC 7.7% men; 6.2% women) cases.

DISCUSSION

The increase in invasive lesions seemed mainly driven by thin melanomas (AAPC 10% men; 8.3% women). The incidence of thick melanomas also increased, although more slowly in recent years. Correction for lesions of unknown thickness enhanced the differences between thin and thick cases and flattened the trends. Incidence trends varied considerably across registries, but only Netherlands presented a marked increase above the boundaries of a funnel plot that weighted estimates by their precision. Mortality from invasive melanoma has continued to increase in Norway, Iceland (but only for elder people), the Netherlands and Slovenia.

Estimates of cancer burden in Italy

Aims and background

This paper presents updated estimates of the incidence, prevalence and mortality of stomach, colorectal, lung, breast, uterine cervix and prostate cancer and skin melanoma in the Italian population. In particular, point estimates for 2012 and time trends from 1970 to 2015 will be provided.

Methods

The presented figures were obtained by summing up the regional epidemiological indicator estimates presented in the other papers of this monographic issue, which were derived by applying the MIAMOD statistical back-calculation method to cancer registries survival data and official mortality rates.

Results

Our findings indicate that breast, colon-rectum and prostate will be the cancer sites with the highest incidence rates in the forthcoming years. The incidence rates still tend to increase for breast, male colorectal cancer and female lung cancer as well as for skin melanoma. By contrast, the incidence of stomach cancer, cervical cancer and male lung cancer, by far the most common tumor sites up to the early 1990s, will continue to decrease. The mortality estimates showed a decreasing trend for all considered cancers with the only exception of lung cancer in women.

Conclusion

These results point to the need to reinforce prevention activities by developing more effective preventive measures for population groups at risk. There is also a need to support timely and continuous cancer surveillance in the Italian population through cancer registries in order to monitor the spread of the cancer risk and to evaluate the impact of prevention policies and therapeutic advances.

Fibre intake and the development of inflammatory bowel disease: A European prospective multi-centre cohort study (EPIC-IBD)

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Population-based prospective cohort studies investigating fibre intake and development of inflammatory bowel disease are lacking. Our aim was to investigate the association between fibre intake and the development of Crohn's disease [CD] and ulcerative colitis [UC] in a large European population.

METHODS

In total, 401326 participants, aged 20-80 years, were recruited in eight countries in Europe between 1991 and 1998. At baseline, fibre intake [total fibres, fibres from fruit, vegetables and cereals] was recorded using food frequency questionnaires. The cohort was monitored for the development of inflammatory bowel disease. Each case was matched with four controls and odds ratios [ORs] for the exposures were calculated using conditional logistic regression. Sensitivity analyses according to smoking status were computed.

RESULTS

In total, 104 and 221 participants developed incident CD and UC, respectively. For both CD and UC, there were no statistically significant associations with either quartiles, or trends across quartiles, for total fibre or any of the individual sources. The associations were not affected by adjusting for smoking and energy intake. Stratification according to smoking status showed null findings apart from an inverse association with cereal fibre and CD in non-smokers [Quartile 4 vs 1 OR = 0.12, 95% confidence interval = 0.02-0.75, p = 0.023, OR trend across quartiles = 0.50, 95% confidence interval = 0.29-0.86, p = 0.017].

CONCLUSION

The results do not support the hypothesis that dietary fibre is involved in the aetiology of UC, although future work should investigate whether there may be a protective effect of specific types of fibre according to smoking status in CD.

Alcohol consumption and risk of urothelial cell bladder cancer in the European prospective investigation into cancer and nutrition cohort

Findings on the association between alcohol consumption and bladder cancer are inconsistent. We investigated that association in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort. We included 476,160 individuals mostly aged 35-70 years, enrolled in ten countries and followed for 13.9 years on average. Hazard ratios (HR) for developing urothelial cell carcinoma (UCC; 1,802 incident cases) were calculated using Cox proportional hazards models. Alcohol consumption at baseline and over the life course was analyzed, as well as different types of beverages (beer, wine, spirits). Baseline alcohol intake was associated with a statistically nonsignificant increased risk of UCC (HR 1.03; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.00-1.06 for each additional 12 g/day). HR in smokers was 1.04 (95% CI 1.01-1.07). Men reporting high baseline intakes of alcohol (>96 g/day) had an increased risk of UCC (HR 1.57; 95% CI 1.03-2.40) compared to those reporting moderate intakes (<6 g/day), but no dose-response relationship emerged. In men, an increased risk of aggressive forms of UCC was observed even at lower doses (>6 to 24 g/day). Average lifelong alcohol intake was not associated with the risk of UCC, however intakes of spirits > 24 g/day were associated with an increased risk of UCC in men (1.38; 95% CI 1.01-1.91) and smokers (1.39; 95% CI 1.01-1.92), compared to moderate intakes. We found no association between alcohol and UCC in women and never smokers. In conclusion, we observed some associations between alcohol and UCC in men and in smokers, possibly because of residual confounding by tobacco smoking.

Dietary glycemic index, glycemic load, and cancer risk: results from the EPIC-Italy study

Factors linked to glucose metabolism are involved in the etiology of several cancers. High glycemic index (GI) or high glycemic load (GL) diets, which chronically raise postprandial blood glucose, may increase cancer risk by affecting insulin-like growth factor. We prospectively investigated cancer risk and dietary GI/GL in the EPIC-Italy cohort. After a median 14.9 years, 5112 incident cancers and 2460 deaths were identified among 45,148 recruited adults. High GI was associated with increased risk of colon and bladder cancer. High GL was associated with: increased risk of colon cancer; increased risk of diabetes-related cancers; and decreased risk of rectal cancer. High intake of carbohydrate from high GI foods was significantly associated with increased risk of colon and diabetes-related cancers, but decreased risk of stomach cancer; whereas high intake of carbohydrates from low GI foods was associated with reduced colon cancer risk. In a Mediterranean population with high and varied carbohydrate intake, carbohydrates that strongly raise postprandial blood glucose may increase colon and bladder cancer risk, while the quantity of carbohydrate consumed may be involved in diabetes-related cancers. Further studies are needed to confirm the opposing effects of high dietary GL on risks of colon and rectal cancers.

Biomarkers of folate and vitamin B12 and breast cancer risk: report from the EPIC cohort

Epidemiological studies have reported inconsistent findings for the association between B vitamins and breast cancer (BC) risk. We investigated the relationship between biomarkers of folate and vitamin B12 and the risk of BC in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. Plasma concentrations of folate and vitamin B12 were determined in 2,491 BC cases individually matched to 2,521 controls among women who provided baseline blood samples. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to estimate odds ratios by quartiles of either plasma B vitamin. Subgroup analyses by menopausal status, hormone receptor status of breast tumors (estrogen receptor [ER], progesterone receptor [PR] and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 [HER2]), alcohol intake and MTHFR polymorphisms (677C > T and 1298A > C) were also performed. Plasma levels of folate and vitamin B12 were not significantly associated with the overall risk of BC or by hormone receptor status. A marginally positive association was found between vitamin B12 status and BC risk in women consuming above the median level of alcohol (ORQ4-Q1  = 1.26; 95% CI 1.00-1.58; Ptrend  = 0.05). Vitamin B12 status was also positively associated with BC risk in women with plasma folate levels below the median value (ORQ4-Q1  = 1.29; 95% CI 1.02-1.62; Ptrend  = 0.03). Overall, folate and vitamin B12 status was not clearly associated with BC risk in this prospective cohort study. However, potential interactions between vitamin B12 and alcohol or folate on the risk of BC deserve further investigation.

Eating at restaurants, at work or at home. Is there a difference? A study among adults of 11 European countries in the context of the HECTOR* project

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

To compare macronutrient intakes out of home-by location-to those at home and to investigate differences in total daily intakes between individuals consuming more than half of their daily energy out of home and those eating only at home.

SUBJECTS/METHODS

Data collected through 24-h recalls or diaries among 23 766 European adults. Participants were grouped as 'non-substantial', 'intermediate' and 'very substantial out-of-home' eaters based on energy intake out of home. Mean macronutrient intakes were estimated at home and out of home (overall, at restaurants, at work). Study/cohort-specific mean differences in total intakes between the 'very substantial out-of-home' and the 'at-home' eaters were estimated through linear regression and pooled estimates were derived.

RESULTS

At restaurants, men consumed 29% of their energy as fat, 15% as protein, 45% as carbohydrates and 11% as alcohol. Among women, fat contributed 33% of energy intake at restaurants, protein 16%, carbohydrates 45% and alcohol 6%. When eating at work, both sexes reported 30% of energy from fat and 55% from carbohydrates. Intakes at home were higher in fat and lower in carbohydrates and alcohol. Total daily intakes of the 'very substantial out-of-home' eaters were generally similar to those of individuals eating only at home, apart from lower carbohydrate and higher alcohol intakes among individuals eating at restaurants.

CONCLUSIONS

In a large population of adults from 11 European countries, eating at work was generally similar to eating at home. Alcoholic drinks were the primary contributors of higher daily energy intakes among individuals eating substantially at restaurants.

Alcohol consumption and the risk of renal cancers in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). Wozniak MB, Brennan P, Brenner DR, Overvad K, Olsen A, Tjønneland A, Boutron-Ruault MC, Clavel-Chapelon F, Fagherazzi G, Katzke V, Kühn T, Boeing H, Bergmann MM, Steffen A, Naska A, Trichopoulou A, Trichopoulos D, Saieva C, Grioni S, Panico S, Tumino R, Vineis P, Bueno-de-Mesquita HB, Peeters PH, Hjartåker A, Weiderpass E, Arriola L, Molina-Montes E, Duell EJ, Santiuste C, Alonso de la Torre R, Barricarte Gurrea A, Stocks T, Johansson M, Ljungberg B, Wareham N, Khaw KT, Travis RC, Cross AJ, Murphy N, Riboli E, Scelo G.Int J Cancer. 2015 Oct 15;137(8):1953-66. [Epub 2015 Apr 28]. doi: 10.1002/ijc.29559

Epidemiologic studies have reported that moderate alcohol consumption is inversely associated with the risk of renal cancer. However, there is no information available on the associations in renal cancer subsites. From 1992 to 2010, 477,325 men and women in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort were followed for incident renal cancers (n = 931). Baseline and lifetime alcohol consumption was assessed by country-specific, validated dietary questionnaires. Information on past alcohol consumption was collected by lifestyle questionnaires. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated from Cox proportional hazard models. In multivariate analysis, total alcohol consumption at baseline was inversely associated with renal cancer; the HR and 95% CI for the increasing categories of total alcohol consumption at recruitment vs. the light drinkers category were 0.78 (0.62-0.99), 0.82 (0.64-1.04), 0.70 (0.55-0.90), and 0.91 (0.63-1.30), respectively, (ptrend = 0.001). A similar relationship was observed for average lifetime alcohol consumption and for all renal cancer subsites combined or for renal parenchyma subsite. The trend was not observed in hypertensive individuals and not significant in smokers. In conclusion, moderate alcohol consumption was associated with a decreased risk of renal cancer.

The surgical pathology laboratory in Mwanza, Tanzania: a survey on the reproducibility of diagnoses after the first years of autonomous activity

BACKGROUND

In 2000, an Italian non-governmental organisation (NGO) began a 9-year project to establish a surgical pathology laboratory at the Bugando Medical Centre (BMC) in Mwanza, Tanzania, a country with a low Human Development Index (HDI), and as of 2009, the laboratory was operating autonomously. The present survey aims to evaluate the reproducibility of histological and cytological diagnoses assigned in the laboratory's early years of autonomous activity. We selected a random sample of 196 histological and cytological diagnoses issued in 2010-2011 at the BMC surgical pathology laboratory. The corresponding samples were sent to Italy for review by Italian senior pathologists, who were blinded to the local results. Samples were classified into four diagnostic categories: malignant, benign, inflammatory, and suspicious. The two-observer kappa-statistic for categorised (qualitative) data was then calculated to measure diagnostic concordance between the local Tanzanian pathologists and Italian senior pathologists. The k-Cohen was calculated for concordance in the overall study sample. Concordance and discordance rates were also stratified by subset: general adult, paediatric/adolescent, and lymphoproliferative histopathological diagnoses; fluid and fine needle aspiration (FNA) cytological diagnoses; and PAP tests. Discordance was also categorised by the corresponding hypothetical clinical implications: high, intermediate, and not significant.

RESULTS

Overall concordance was 85.2% (167 of 196 diagnoses), with a k-Cohen of 0.7691 (P = 0.0000). Very high concordance was observed in the subsets of adult general pathological diagnoses (90%) and paediatric/adolescent pathological diagnoses (91.18%). Concordance in the subset of PAP tests was 75%, and for fluid/FNA cytological diagnoses it was 56.52%. Concordance among 12 histological subtypes of lymphoma was 75.86%, with substantial discordance observed in the diagnosis of Burkitt lymphoma (five cases diagnosed by Italian pathologists versus 2 by local pathologists). The overall proportion of discordance with high hypothetical clinical implications was 6.1% (12 diagnoses).

CONCLUSION

This blind review of diagnoses assigned in Tanzania, a country with low HDI, and in Italy, a country with a very high HDI, seemed to be a sensitive and effective method to identify areas of potential error and may represent a reference point for future, more detailed quality control processes or audits of surgical pathology services located in limited-resource regions.

Meal patterns across ten European countries - results from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) calibration study

OBJECTIVE

To characterize meal patterns across ten European countries participating in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) calibration study.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional study utilizing dietary data collected through a standardized 24 h diet recall during 1995-2000. Eleven predefined intake occasions across a 24 h period were assessed during the interview. In the present descriptive report, meal patterns were analysed in terms of daily number of intake occasions, the proportion reporting each intake occasion and the energy contributions from each intake occasion.

SETTING

Twenty-seven centres across ten European countries.

SUBJECTS

Women (64 %) and men (36 %) aged 35-74 years (n 36 020).

RESULTS

Pronounced differences in meal patterns emerged both across centres within the same country and across different countries, with a trend for fewer intake occasions per day in Mediterranean countries compared with central and northern Europe. Differences were also found for daily energy intake provided by lunch, with 38-43 % for women and 41-45 % for men within Mediterranean countries compared with 16-27 % for women and 20-26 % for men in central and northern European countries. Likewise, a south-north gradient was found for daily energy intake from snacks, with 13-20 % (women) and 10-17 % (men) in Mediterranean countries compared with 24-34 % (women) and 23-35 % (men) in central/northern Europe.

CONCLUSIONS

We found distinct differences in meal patterns with marked diversity for intake frequency and lunch and snack consumption between Mediterranean and central/northern European countries. Monitoring of meal patterns across various cultures and populations could provide critical context to the research efforts to characterize relationships between dietary intake and health.

Survival in patients with primary liver cancer, gallbladder and extrahepatic biliary tract cancer and pancreatic cancer in Europe 1999-2007: Results of EUROCARE-5

BACKGROUND

The EUROCARE study collects and analyses survival data from population-based cancer registries (CRs) in Europe in order to provide data on between-country differences in survival and time trends in survival.

METHODS

This study analyses data on liver cancer, gallbladder and extrahepatic biliary tract cancers ("biliary tract cancers"), and pancreatic cancer diagnosed in 2000-2007 from 88 CRs in 29 countries. Relative survival (RS) was estimated overall, by region, sex, age and period of diagnosis using the complete approach. Time trends in 5-year RS over 1999-2007 were also analysed using the period approach.

RESULTS

The prognosis of the studied cancers was poor. Age-standardised 5-year RS was 12% for liver cancer, 17% for biliary tract cancers and 7% for pancreatic cancer. There were some between-country differences in survival. In general, RS was low in Eastern Europe and high in Central and Southern Europe. For all sites, 5-year RS was similar in men and women and decreased with advancing age. No substantial changes in survival were reported for pancreatic cancer over the period 1999-2007. On average, there was a crude increase in 5-year RS of 3 percentage points between the periods 1999-2001 and 2005-2007 for liver cancer and biliary tract cancers.

CONCLUSIONS

The major changes in imaging techniques over the study period for the diagnosis of the three studied cancers did not result in an improvement in the prognosis of these cancers. In the near future, new innovative treatments might be the best way to improve the prognosis in these cancers.

Healthy lifestyle index and risk of gastric adenocarcinoma in the EPIC cohort study

Several modifiable lifestyle factors, including smoking, alcohol, certain dietary factors and weight are independently associated with gastric cancer (GC); however, their combined impact on GC risk is unknown. We constructed a healthy lifestyle index to investigate the joint influence of these behaviors on GC risk within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. The analysis included 461,550 participants (662 first incident GC cases) with a mean follow-up of 11.4 years. A healthy lifestyle index was constructed, assigning 1 point for each healthy behavior related to smoking status, alcohol consumption and diet quality (represented by the Mediterranean diet) for assessing overall GC and also body mass index for cardia GC and 0 points otherwise. Risk of GC was calculated using Cox proportional hazards regression models while adjusting for relevant confounders. The highest versus lowest score in the healthy lifestyle index was associated with a significant lower risk of GC, by 51% overall (HR 0.49 95% CI 0.35, 0.70), by 77% for cardia GC (HR 0.23 95% CI 0.08, 0.68) and by 47% for noncardia GC (HR 0.53 (95% CI 0.32, 0.87), p-trends<0.001. Population attributable risk calculations showed that 18.8% of all GC and 62.4% of cardia GC cases could have been prevented if participants in this population had followed the healthy lifestyle behaviors of this index. Adopting several healthy lifestyle behaviors including not smoking, limiting alcohol consumption, eating a healthy diet and maintaining a normal weight is associated with a large decreased risk of GC.

Diabetes and onset of natural menopause: results from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition

STUDY QUESTION

Do women who have diabetes before menopause have their menopause at an earlier age compared with women without diabetes?

SUMMARY ANSWER

Although there was no overall association between diabetes and age at menopause, our study suggests that early-onset diabetes may accelerate menopause.

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY

Today, more women of childbearing age are being diagnosed with diabetes, but little is known about the impact of diabetes on reproductive health.

STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION

We investigated the impact of diabetes on age at natural menopause (ANM) in 258 898 women from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC), enrolled between 1992 and 2000.

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS

Determinant and outcome information was obtained through questionnaires. Time-dependent Cox regression analyses were used to estimate the associations of diabetes and age at diabetes diagnosis with ANM, stratified by center and adjusted for age, smoking, reproductive and diabetes risk factors and with age from birth to menopause or censoring as the underlying time scale.

MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE

Overall, no association between diabetes and ANM was found (hazard ratio (HR) = 0.94; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.89-1.01). However, women with diabetes before the age of 20 years had an earlier menopause (10-20 years: HR = 1.43; 95% CI 1.02-2.01, <10 years: HR = 1.59; 95% CI 1.03-2.43) compared with non-diabetic women, whereas women with diabetes at age 50 years and older had a later menopause (HR = 0.81; 95% CI 0.70-0.95). None of the other age groups were associated with ANM.

LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION

Strengths of the study include the large sample size and the broad set of potential confounders measured. However, results may have been underestimated due to survival bias. We cannot be sure about the sequence of the events in women with a late age at diabetes, as both events then occur in a short period. We could not distinguish between type 1 and type 2 diabetes.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS

Based on the literature, an accelerating effect of early-onset diabetes on ANM might be plausible. A delaying effect of late-onset diabetes on ANM has not been reported before, and is not in agreement with recent studies suggesting the opposite association.

STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTERESTS

The coordination of EPIC is financially supported by the European Commission (DG-SANCO) and the International Agency for Research on Cancer. The national cohorts are supported by Danish Cancer Society (Denmark); Ligue Contre le Cancer, Institut Gustave Roussy, Mutuelle Générale de l'Education Nationale, Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM) (France); German Cancer Aid, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ) and Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMMF) (Germany); Ministry of Health and Social Solidarity, Stavros Niarchos Foundation and Hellenic Health Foundation (Greece); Italian Association for Research on Cancer (AIRC) and National Research Council (Italy); Dutch Ministry of Public Health, Welfare and Sports (VWS), Netherlands Cancer Registry (NKR), LK Research Funds, Dutch Prevention Funds, Dutch ZON (Zorg Onderzoek Nederland), World Cancer Research Fund (WCRF), Statistics Netherlands (The Netherlands); ERC-2009-AdG 232997 and Nordforsk, Nordic Centre of Excellence programme on Food, Nutrition and Health (Norway); Health Research Fund (FIS), Regional Governments of Andalucía, Asturias, Basque Country, Murcia (no. 6236) and Navarra, ISCIII RETIC (RD06/0020) (Spain); Swedish Cancer Society, Swedish Scientific Council and Regional Government of Skåne and Västerbotten (Sweden); Cancer Research UK, Medical Research Council, Stroke Association, British Heart Foundation, Department of Health, Food Standards Agency, and Wellcome Trust (UK). None of the authors reported a conflict of interest.

Consumption of fatty foods and incident type 2 diabetes in populations from eight European countries

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

Diets high in saturated and trans fat and low in unsaturated fat may increase type 2 diabetes (T2D) risk, but studies on foods high in fat per unit weight are sparse. We assessed whether the intake of vegetable oil, butter, margarine, nuts and seeds and cakes and cookies is related to incident T2D.

SUBJECTS/METHODS

A case-cohort study was conducted, nested within eight countries of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer (EPIC), with 12,403 incident T2D cases and a subcohort of 16,835 people, identified from a cohort of 340,234 people. Diet was assessed at baseline (1991-1999) by country-specific questionnaires. Country-specific hazard ratios (HRs) across four categories of fatty foods (nonconsumers and tertiles among consumers) were combined with random-effects meta-analysis.

RESULTS

After adjustment not including body mass index (BMI), nonconsumers of butter, nuts and seeds and cakes and cookies were at higher T2D risk compared with the middle tertile of consumption. Among consumers, cakes and cookies were inversely related to T2D (HRs across increasing tertiles 1.14, 1.00 and 0.92, respectively; P-trend <0.0001). All these associations attenuated upon adjustment for BMI, except the higher risk of nonconsumers of cakes and cookies (HR 1.57). Higher consumption of margarine became positively associated after BMI adjustment (HRs across increasing consumption tertiles: 0.93, 1.00 and 1.12; P-trend 0.03). Within consumers, vegetable oil, butter and nuts and seeds were unrelated to T2D.

CONCLUSIONS

Fatty foods were generally not associated with T2D, apart from weak positive association for margarine. The higher risk among nonconsumers of cakes and cookies needs further explanation.

An epidemiologic risk prediction model for ovarian cancer in Europe: the EPIC study

BACKGROUND

Ovarian cancer has a high case-fatality ratio, largely due to late diagnosis. Epidemiologic risk prediction models could help identify women at increased risk who may benefit from targeted prevention measures, such as screening or chemopreventive agents.

METHODS

We built an ovarian cancer risk prediction model with epidemiologic risk factors from 202,206 women in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study.

RESULTS

Older age at menopause, longer duration of hormone replacement therapy, and higher body mass index were included as increasing ovarian cancer risk, whereas unilateral ovariectomy, longer duration of oral contraceptive use, and higher number of full-term pregnancies were decreasing risk. The discriminatory power (overall concordance index) of this model, as examined with five-fold cross-validation, was 0.64 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.57, 0.70). The ratio of the expected to observed number of ovarian cancer cases occurring in the first 5 years of follow-up was 0.90 (293 out of 324, 95% CI: 0.81-1.01), in general there was no evidence for miscalibration.

CONCLUSION

Our ovarian cancer risk model containing only epidemiological data showed modest discriminatory power for a Western European population. Future studies should consider adding informative biomarkers to possibly improve the predictive ability of the model.

Fruit and vegetable consumption in relation to hepatocellular carcinoma in a multi-centre, European cohort study

BACKGROUND

Vegetable and/or fruit intakes in association with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk have been investigated in case-control studies conducted in specific European countries and cohort studies conducted in Asia, with inconclusive results. No multi-centre European cohort has investigated the indicated associations.

METHODS

In 486,799 men/women from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and nutrition, we identified 201 HCC cases after 11 years median follow-up. We calculated adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for HCC incidence for sex-specific quintiles and per 100 g d(-1) increments of vegetable/fruit intakes.

RESULTS

Higher vegetable intake was associated with a statistically significant, monotonic reduction of HCC risk: HR (100 g d(-1) increment): 0.83; 95% CI: 0.71-0.98. This association was consistent in sensitivity analyses with no apparent heterogeneity across strata of HCC risk factors. Fruit intake was not associated with HCC incidence: HR (100 g d(-1) increment): 1.01; 95% CI: 0.92-1.11.

CONCLUSIONS

Vegetable, but not fruit, intake is associated with lower HCC risk with no evidence for heterogeneity of this association in strata of important HCC risk factors. Mechanistic studies should clarify pathways underlying this association. Given that HCC prognosis is poor and that vegetables are practically universally accessible, our results may be important, especially for those at high risk for the disease.

Insulin-like growth factor I and risk of epithelial invasive ovarian cancer by tumour characteristics: results from the EPIC cohort

BACKGROUND

Prospective studies on insulin-like growth factor I (IGF-I) and epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) risk are inconclusive. Data suggest risk associations vary by tumour characteristics.

METHODS

We conducted a nested case-control study in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) to evaluate IGF-I concentrations and EOC risk by tumour characteristics (n=565 cases). Multivariable conditional logistic regression models were used to estimate associations.

RESULTS

We observed no association between IGF-I and EOC overall or by tumour characteristics.

CONCLUSIONS

In the largest prospective study to date was no association between IGF-I and EOC risk. Pre-diagnostic serum IGF-I concentrations may not influence EOC risk.

Dietary folate intake and breast cancer risk: European prospective investigation into cancer and nutrition

BACKGROUND

There is limited evidence on the association between dietary folate intake and the risk of breast cancer (BC) by hormone receptor expression in the tumors. We investigated the relationship between dietary folate and BC risk using data from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC).

METHODS

A total of 367993 women age 35 to 70 years were recruited in 10 European countries. During a median follow-up of 11.5 years, 11575 women with BC were identified. Dietary folate intake was estimated from country-specific dietary questionnaires. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to quantify the association between dietary variables and BC risk. BC tumors were classified by receptor status. Subgroup analyses were performed by menopausal status and alcohol intake. Intake of other B vitamins was considered. All statistical tests were two-sided.

RESULTS

A borderline inverse association was observed between dietary folate and BC risk (hazard ratio comparing top vs bottom quintile [HRQ5-Q1] = 0.92, 95% CI = 0.83 to 1.01, P trend = .037). In premenopausal women, we observed a statistically significant trend towards lower risk in estrogen receptor-negative BC (HRQ5-Q1 = 0.66, 95% CI = 0.45 to 0.96, P trend = .042) and progesterone receptor-negative BC (HRQ5-Q1 = 0.70, 95% CI = 0.51 to 0.97, P trend = .021). No associations were found in postmenopausal women. A 14% reduction in BC risk was observed when comparing the highest with the lowest dietary folate tertiles in women having a high (>12 alcoholic drinks/week) alcohol intake (HRT3-T1 = 0.86, 95% CI = 0.75 to 0.98, P interaction = .035).

CONCLUSIONS

Higher dietary folate intake may be associated with a lower risk of sex hormone receptor-negative BC in premenopausal women.

Dietary glycemic index and glycemic load and risk of colorectal cancer: results from the EPIC-Italy study

A carbohydrate-rich diet, resulting in high blood glucose and insulin, has been hypothesized as involved in colorectal cancer etiology. We investigated dietary glycemic index (GI) and glycemic load (GL), in relation to colorectal cancer, in the prospectively recruited EPIC-Italy cohort. After a median 11.7 years, 421 colorectal cancers were diagnosed among 47,749 recruited adults. GI and GL were estimated from validated food frequency questionnaires. Multivariable Cox modeling estimated hazard ratios (HRs) for associations between colorectal cancer and intakes of total, high GI and low GI carbohydrate and GI and GL. The adjusted HR of colorectal cancer for highest versus lowest GI quartile was 1.35; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.03-1.78; p trend 0.031. Increasing high GI carbohydrate intake was also significantly associated with increasing colorectal cancer risk (HR 1.45; 95% CI 1.04-2.03; p trend 0.034), whereas increasing low GI carbohydrate was associated with reducing risk (HR 0.73; 95% CI 0.54-0.98; p trend 0.033). High dietary GI and high GI carbohydrate were associated with increased risks of cancer at all colon sites (HR 1.37; 95% CI 1.00-1.88, HR 1.80; 95% CI 1.22-2.65, respectively), whereas high GI carbohydrate and high GL were associated with increased risk of proximal colon cancer (HR 1.94; 95% CI 1.18-3.16, HR 2.01; 95% CI 1.08-3.74, respectively). After stratification for waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), cancer was significantly associated with GI, and high GI carbohydrate, in those with high WHR. These findings suggest that high dietary GI and high carbohydrate intake from high GI foods are associated with increased risk of colorectal cancer.

Flavonoid and lignan intake in relation to bladder cancer risk in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study

BACKGROUND

There is growing evidence of the protective role of dietary intake of flavonoids and lignans on cancer, but the association with bladder cancer has not been thoroughly investigated in epidemiological studies. We evaluated the association between dietary intakes of total and subclasses of flavonoids and lignans and risk of bladder cancer and its main morphological type, urothelial cell carcinoma (UCC), within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study.

METHODS

A cohort of 477 312 men and women mostly aged 35-70 years, were recruited in 10 European countries. At baseline, dietary flavonoid and lignan intakes were estimated using centre-specific validated questionnaires and a food composition database based on the Phenol-Explorer, the UK Food Standards Agency and the US Department of Agriculture databases.

RESULTS

During an average of 11 years of follow-up, 1575 new cases of primary bladder cancer were identified, of which 1425 were UCC (classified into aggressive (n=430) and non-aggressive (n=413) UCC). No association was found between total flavonoid intake and bladder cancer risk. Among flavonoid subclasses, significant inverse associations with bladder cancer risk were found for intakes of flavonol (hazard ratio comparing fifth with first quintile (HRQ5-Q1) 0.74, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.61-0.91; P-trend=0.009) and lignans (HRQ5-Q1 0.78, 95% CI: 0.62-0.96; P-trend=0.046). Similar results were observed for overall UCC and aggressive UCC, but not for non-aggressive UCC.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study suggests an inverse association between the dietary intakes of flavonols and lignans and risk of bladder cancer, particularly aggressive UCC.

Dietary intake of acrylamide and endometrial cancer risk in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort

BACKGROUND

Three prospective studies have evaluated the association between dietary acrylamide intake and endometrial cancer (EC) risk with inconsistent results. The objective of this study was to evaluate the association between acrylamide intake and EC risk: for overall EC, for type-I EC, and in never smokers and never users of oral contraceptives (OCs). Smoking is a source of acrylamide, and OC use is a protective factor for EC risk.

METHODS

Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for the association between acrylamide intake and EC risk in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. Acrylamide intake was estimated from the EU acrylamide monitoring database, which was matched with EPIC questionnaire-based food consumption data. Acrylamide intake was energy adjusted using the residual method.

RESULTS

No associations were observed between acrylamide intake and overall EC (n=1382) or type-I EC risk (n=627). We observed increasing relative risks for type-I EC with increasing acrylamide intake among women who both never smoked and were non-users of OCs (HRQ5vsQ1: 1.97, 95% CI: 1.08-3.62; likelihood ratio test (LRT) P-value: 0.01, n=203).

CONCLUSIONS

Dietary intake of acrylamide was not associated with overall or type-I EC risk; however, positive associations with type I were observed in women who were both non-users of OCs and never smokers.

Plasma methionine, choline, betaine, and dimethylglycine in relation to colorectal cancer risk in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)

BACKGROUND

Disturbances in one carbon metabolism may contribute to carcinogenesis by affecting methylation and synthesis of DNA. Choline and its oxidation product betaine are involved in this metabolism and can serve as alternative methyl group donors when folate status is low.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We conducted a case-control study nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC), to investigate plasma concentrations of the methyl donors methionine, choline, betaine (trimethylglycine), and dimethylglycine (DMG) in relation to colorectal cancer (CRC) risk. Our study included 1367 incident CRC cases (965 colon and 402 rectum) and 2323 controls matched by gender, age group, and study center. Multivariate-adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) for CRC risk were estimated by conditional logistic regression, comparing the fifth to the first quintile of plasma concentrations.

RESULTS

Overall, methionine (OR: 0.79, 95% CI: 0.63-0.99, P-trend = 0.05), choline (OR: 0.77, 95% CI: 0.60-0.99, P-trend = 0.07), and betaine (OR: 0.85, 95% CI: 0.66-1.09, P-trend = 0.06) concentrations were inversely associated with CRC risk of borderline significance. In participants with folate concentration below the median of 11.3 nmol/l, high betaine concentration was associated with reduced CRC risk (OR: 0.71, 95% CI: 0.50-1.00, P-trend = 0.02), which was not observed for those having a higher folate status. Among women, but not men, high choline concentration was associated with decreased CRC risk (OR: 0.62, 95% CI: 0.43-0.88, P-trend = 0.01). Plasma DMG was not associated with CRC risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Individuals with high plasma concentrations of methionine, choline, and betaine may be at reduced risk of CRC.

Circulating prolactin and breast cancer risk among pre- and postmenopausal women in the EPIC cohort

BACKGROUND

Experimental and epidemiological evidence suggests that prolactin might play a role in the etiology of breast cancer. We analyzed the relationship of prediagnostic circulating prolactin levels with the risk of breast cancer by menopausal status, use of postmenopausal hormone replacement therapy (HRT) at blood donation, and by estrogen and progesterone receptor status of the breast tumors.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Conditional logistic regression was used to analyze the data from a case-control study nested within the prospective European EPIC cohort, including 2250 invasive breast cancer and their matched control subjects.

RESULTS

Statistically significant heterogeneity in the association of prolactin levels with breast cancer risk between women who were either pre- or postmenopausal at the time of blood donation was observed (Phet = 0.04). Higher serum levels of prolactin were associated with significant increase in the risk of breast cancer among postmenopausal women [odds ratio (OR)Q4-Q1 = 1.29 (95% confidence interval, CI, 1.05-1.58), Ptrend = 0.09]; however, this increase in risk seemed to be confined to women who used postmenopausal HRT at blood donation [ORQ4-Q1 = 1.45 (95% CI 1.08-1.95), Ptrend = 0.01], whereas no statistically significant association was found for the non-users of HRT [ORQ4-Q1 = 1.11 (95%CI 0.83-1.49), Ptrend = 0.80] (Phet = 0.08). Among premenopausal women, a statistically non-significant inverse association was observed [ORQ4-Q1 = 0.70 (95% CI 0.48-1.03), Ptrend = 0.16]. There was no heterogeneity in the prolactin-breast cancer association by hormone receptor status of the tumor.

CONCLUSION

Our study indicates that higher circulating levels of prolactin among the postmenopausal HRT users at baseline may be associated with increased breast cancer risk.

Adherence to the Mediterranean diet and risk of bladder cancer in the EPIC cohort study

There is growing evidence of the protective role of the Mediterranean diet (MD) on cancer. However, to date no epidemiological study has investigated the influence of the MD on bladder cancer. We evaluated the association between adherence to the MD and risk of urothelial cell bladder cancer (UCC), according to tumor aggressiveness, in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). The analysis included 477,312 participants, recruited from ten European countries between 1991 and 2000. Information from validated dietary questionnaires was used to develop a relative Mediterranean diet score (rMED), including nine dietary components. Cox regression models were used to assess the effect of the rMED on UCC risk, while adjusting for dietary energy and tobacco smoking of any kind. Stratified analyses were performed by sex, BMI, smoking status, European region and age at diagnosis. During an average follow-up of 11 years, 1,425 participants (70.9% male) were diagnosed with a first primary UCC. There was a negative but non-significant association between a high versus low rMED score and risk of UCC overall (HR: 0.84 [95% CI 0.69, 1.03]) and risk of aggressive (HR: 0.88 [95% CI 0.61, 1.28]) and non-aggressive tumors (HR: 0.78 [95% CI 0.54, 1.14]). Although there was no effect modification in the stratified analyses, there was a significant 34% (p = 0.043) decreased risk of UCC in current smokers with a high rMED score. In EPIC, the MD was not significantly associated with risk of UCC, although we cannot exclude that a MD may reduce risk in current smokers.

B-vitamins intake, DNA-methylation of One Carbon Metabolism and homocysteine pathway genes and myocardial infarction risk: the EPICOR study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Several epidemiological studies highlighted the association between folate and B-vitamins low intake and cardiovascular diseases (CVD) risk. Contrasting results were reported on the relationship between folate intake and DNA-methylation. Folate and B-vitamins may modulate DNA-methylation of specific enzymes which are included in the One-Carbon Metabolism (OCM) and in the homocysteine (Hcy) pathways. The aim of the study was to evaluate whether DNA-methylation profiles of OCM and Hcy genes could modulate the myocardial infarction (MI) risk conferred by a low B-vitamins intake.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Study sample (206 MI cases and 206 matched controls) is a case-control study nested in the prospective EPIC cohort. Methylation levels of 33 candidate genes where extracted by the whole epigenome analysis (Illumina-HumanMethylation450K-BeadChip). We identified three differentially methylated regions in males (TCN2 promoter, CBS 5'UTR, AMT gene-body) and two in females (PON1 gene-body, CBS 5'UTR), each of them characterized by an increased methylation in cases. Functional in silico analysis suggested a decreased expression in cases. A Recursively Partitioned Mixture Model cluster algorithm identified distinct methylation profiles associated to different MI risk: high-risk vs. low-risk methylation profile groups, OR = 3.49, p = 1.87 × 10(-)(4) and OR = 3.94, p = 0.0317 in males and females respectively (multivariate logistic regression adjusted for classical CVD risk factors). Moreover, a general inverse relationship between B-vitamins intake and DNA-methylation of the candidate genes was observed.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings support the hypothesis that DNA-methylation patterns in specific regions of OCM and Hcy pathways genes may modulate the CVD risk conferred by folate and B-vitamins low intake.

Prediagnostic transcriptomic markers of Chronic lymphocytic leukemia reveal perturbations 10 years before diagnosis

BACKGROUND

B-cell lymphomas are a diverse group of hematological neoplasms with differential etiology and clinical trajectories. Increased insights in the etiology and the discovery of prediagnostic markers have the potential to improve the clinical course of these neoplasms.

METHODS

We investigated in a prospective study global gene expression in peripheral blood mononuclear cells of 263 incident B-cell lymphoma cases, diagnosed between 1 and 17 years after blood sample collection, and 439 controls, nested within two European cohorts.

RESULTS

Our analyses identified only transcriptomic markers for specific lymphoma subtypes; few markers of multiple myeloma (N = 3), and 745 differentially expressed genes in relation to future risk of chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL). The strongest of these associations were consistently found in both cohorts and were related to (B-) cell signaling networks and immune system regulation pathways. CLL markers exhibited very high predictive abilities of disease onset even in cases diagnosed more than 10 years after blood collection.

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first investigation on blood cell global gene expression and future risk of B-cell lymphomas. We mainly identified genes in relation to future risk of CLL that are involved in biological pathways, which appear to be mechanistically involved in CLL pathogenesis. Many but not all of the top hits we identified have been reported previously in studies based on tumor tissues, therefore suggesting that a mixture of preclinical and early disease markers can be detected several years before CLL clinical diagnosis.

Physical activity, sex steroid, and growth factor concentrations in pre- and post-menopausal women: a cross-sectional study within the EPIC cohort

PURPOSE

Increased physical activity (PA) is associated with a reduced risk of several cancers. PA may reduce cancer risk by changing endogenous hormones levels, but relatively little research has focused on this topic. The purpose of this study was to elucidate the relation between PA and endogenous hormone concentrations.

METHODS

A cross-sectional analysis of 798 pre- and 1,360 post-menopausal women included as controls in case-control studies on endogenous hormones (steroids, progesterone, sex-hormone-binding globulin (SHBG), and growth factors) levels, and cancer risk nested within European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort was performed. Multivariate regression analyses were performed to compare geometric mean levels of hormones and SHBG by categories of PA.

RESULTS

In pre-menopausal women, active women had 19 % significantly lower concentrations of androstenedione, 14 % lower testosterone, and 20 % lower free testosterone than inactive women, while no differences were observed for estrogens, progesterone, SHBG, and growth factors. In post-menopausal women, active women had 18 % significantly lower estradiol and 20 % lower free estradiol concentrations than inactive women, while no differences were observed for the other hormones and SHBG. More vigorous forms of physical activity were associated with higher insulin-like growth factor-I concentrations. Adjustment for body mass index did not alter the associations. Overall, the percentage of variance in hormone concentrations explained by PA levels was <2 %.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results support the hypothesis of an influence, although small in magnitude, of PA on sex hormone levels in blood, independent of body size.

Consumption of sweet beverages and type 2 diabetes incidence in European adults: results from EPIC-InterAct

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

Consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages has been shown, largely in American populations, to increase type 2 diabetes incidence. We aimed to evaluate the association of consumption of sweet beverages (juices and nectars, sugar-sweetened soft drinks and artificially sweetened soft drinks) with type 2 diabetes incidence in European adults.

METHODS

We established a case-cohort study including 12,403 incident type 2 diabetes cases and a stratified subcohort of 16,154 participants selected from eight European cohorts participating in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study. After exclusions, the final sample size included 11,684 incident cases and a subcohort of 15,374 participants. Cox proportional hazards regression models (modified for the case-cohort design) and random-effects meta-analyses were used to estimate the association between sweet beverage consumption (obtained from validated dietary questionnaires) and type 2 diabetes incidence.

RESULTS

In adjusted models, one 336 g (12 oz) daily increment in sugar-sweetened and artificially sweetened soft drink consumption was associated with HRs for type 2 diabetes of 1.22 (95% CI 1.09, 1.38) and 1.52 (95% CI 1.26, 1.83), respectively. After further adjustment for energy intake and BMI, the association of sugar-sweetened soft drinks with type 2 diabetes persisted (HR 1.18, 95% CI 1.06, 1.32), but the association of artificially sweetened soft drinks became statistically not significant (HR 1.11, 95% CI 0.95, 1.31). Juice and nectar consumption was not associated with type 2 diabetes incidence.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

This study corroborates the association between increased incidence of type 2 diabetes and high consumption of sugar-sweetened soft drinks in European adults.

High glycemic diet and breast cancer occurrence in the Italian EPIC cohort

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

There are theoretical reasons for suspecting that a high glycemic index (GI) or glycemic load (GL) diet may increase breast cancer risk, perhaps via an effect on the insulin-like growth factor (IGF) axis. However observational studies have produced inconsistent findings and it is controversial whether breast cancer risk is influenced by the carbohydrate characteristics of the diet. We prospectively investigated the association between dietary GI and GL and breast cancer in the Italian section of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC).

METHODS AND RESULTS

Women were recruited from 1993 to 1998 at five centers: Varese and Turin (north Italy), Florence (central Italy), and Ragusa and Naples (south Italy). Participants completed validated food frequency questionnaires from which GI and GL were estimated. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression models quantified the association between breast cancer risk and total carbohydrate intake, GI, and GL. During 11 years of follow-up, 879 breast cancer (797 invasive and 82 in situ) cases were indentified. High dietary GL was associated with increased breast cancer risk (RR 1.45, 95% CI = 1.06-1.99; highest vs. lowest quintile; p-trend 0.029), whereas dietary GI and total carbohydrate had no influence. The association was not modified by menopausal status or body mass index.

CONCLUSION

Our data indicate that, in a Mediterranean population characterized by traditionally high and varied carbohydrate intake, a diet high in GL plays a role in the development of breast cancer.

Diabetes mellitus, insulin treatment, diabetes duration, and risk of biliary tract cancer and hepatocellular carcinoma in a European cohort

BACKGROUND

Evidence on associations between self-reported diabetes mellitus, diabetes duration, age at diabetes diagnosis, insulin treatment, and risk of biliary tract cancer (BTC) and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), independent of general and abdominal obesity is scarce.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We conducted a prospective analysis in the EPIC-cohort study among 363 426 participants with self-reported diabetes data. Multivariable adjusted relative risks and 95% confidence intervals were estimated from Cox regression models. In a nested case-control subset, analyses were carried out in HCV/HBV-negative individuals.

RESULTS

During 8.5 years of follow-up, 204 BTC cases [including 75 gallbladder cancer (GBC) cases], and 176 HCC cases were identified. Independent of body mass index and waist-to-height ratio diabetes status was associated with higher risk of BTC and HCC [1.77 (1.00-3.13) and 2.17 (1.36-3.47)]. For BTC, the risk seemed to be higher in participants with shorter diabetes duration and those not treated with insulin. Regarding cancer subsites, diabetes was only associated with GBC [2.72 (1.17-6.31)]. The risk for HCC was particularly higher in participants treated with insulin. The results were not appreciably different in HCV/HBV-negative individuals.

CONCLUSION(S)

This study supports the hypothesis that diabetes is a risk factor for BTC (particularly GBC) and HCC. Further research is required to establish whether diabetes treatment or duration is associated with these cancers.

Consumption of fish and meats and risk of hepatocellular carcinoma: the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)

BACKGROUND

While higher intake of fish and lower consumption of red/processed meats have been suggested to play a protective role in the etiology of several cancers, prospective evidence for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is limited, particularly in Western European populations.

METHODS

The associations of fish and meats with HCC risk were analyzed in the EPIC cohort. Between 1992 and 2010, 191 incident HCC were identified among 477 206 participants. Baseline diet was assessed using validated dietary questionnaires. A single 24-h diet recall from a cohort subsample was used for calibration. Multivariable proportional hazard regression was utilized to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). In a nested case-control subset (HCC = 122), HBV/HCV status and liver function biomarkers were measured.

RESULTS

HCC risk was inversely associated with intake of total fish (per 20 g/day increase, HR = 0.83, 95% CI 0.74-0.95 and HR = 0.80, 95% CI 0.69-0.97 before and after calibration, respectively). This inverse association was also suggested after adjusting for HBV/HCV status and liver function score (per 20-g/day increase, RR = 0.86, 95% CI 0.66-1.11 and RR = 0.74, 95% CI 0.50-1.09, respectively) in a nested case-control subset. Intakes of total meats or subgroups of red/processed meats, and poultry were not associated with HCC risk.

CONCLUSIONS

In this large European cohort, total fish intake is associated with lower HCC risk.

Mediterranean diet and incidence of hip fractures in a European cohort

Prevention of hip fractures is of critical public health importance. In a cohort of adults from eight European countries, evidence was found that increased adherence to Mediterranean diet, measured by a 10-unit dietary score, is associated with reduced hip fracture incidence, particularly among men.

INTRODUCTION

Evidence on the role of dietary patterns on hip fracture incidence is scarce. We explored the association of adherence to Mediterranean diet (MD) with hip fracture incidence in a cohort from eight European countries.

METHODS

A total of 188,795 eligible participants (48,814 men and 139,981 women) in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and nutrition study with mean age 48.6 years (±10.8) were followed for a median of 9 years, and 802 incident hip fractures were recorded. Diet was assessed at baseline through validated dietary instruments. Adherence to MD was evaluated by a MD score (MDs), on a 10-point scale, in which monounsaturated were substituted with unsaturated lipids. Association with hip fracture incidence was assessed through Cox regression with adjustment for potential confounders.

RESULTS

Increased adherence to MD was associated with a 7 % decrease in hip fracture incidence [hazard ratio (HR) per 1-unit increase in the MDs 0.93; 95 % confidence interval (95 % CI) = 0.89-0.98]. This association was more evident among men and somewhat stronger among older individuals. Using increments close to one standard deviation of daily intake, in the overall sample, high vegetable (HR = 0.86; 95 % CI = 0.79-0.94) and high fruit (HR = 0.89; 95 % CI = 0.82-0.97) intake was associated with decreased hip fracture incidence, whereas high meat intake (HR = 1.18; 95 % CI = 1.06-1.31) with increased incidence. Excessive ethanol consumption (HR high versus moderate = 1.74; 95 % CI = 1.32-2.31) was also a risk factor.

CONCLUSIONS

In a prospective study of adults, increased adherence to MD appears to protect against hip fracture occurrence, particularly among men.

Impact of thearubigins on the estimation of total dietary flavonoids in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study

Thearubigins (TR) are polymeric flavanol-derived compounds formed during the fermentation of tea leaves. Comprising ∼70% of total polyphenols in black tea, TR may contribute majorly to its beneficial effects on health. To date, there is no appropriate food composition data on TR, although several studies have used data from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) database to estimate TR intakes. We aimed to estimate dietary TR in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort and assess the impact of including TR or not in the calculation of the total dietary flavonoid intake. Dietary data were collected using a single standardized 24-h dietary recall interviewer-administered to 36 037 subjects aged 35-74 years. TR intakes were calculated using the USDA database. TR intakes ranged from 0.9 mg/day in men from Navarra and San Sebastian in Spain to 532.5 mg/day in men from UK general population. TR contributed <5% to the total flavonoid intake in Greece, Spain and Italy, whereas in the UK general population, TR comprised 48% of the total flavonoids. High heterogeneity in TR intake across the EPIC countries was observed. This study shows that total flavonoid intake may be greatly influenced by TR, particularly in high black tea-consuming countries. Further research on identification and quantification of TR is needed to get more accurate dietary TR estimations.