[Introduction of the Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool: a tool to assess risk of bias and applicability of prediction model studies]

This paper introduceds the tool named as "Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool" (PROBAST) to assess the risk of bias and applicability in prediction model studies and the relevant items and steps of assessment. PROBAST is organized into four domains including participants, predictors, outcome and analysis. These domains contain a total of 20 signaling questions to facilitate structured judgment of risk of bias occurring in study design, conduct or analysis. Through comprehensive judgment, the risk of bias and applicability of original study is categorized as high, low or unclear. PROBAST enables a focused and transparent approach to assessing the risk of bias of studies that develop, validate, or update prediction models for individualized predictions. Although PROBAST was designed for systematic reviews, it can be also used more generally in critical appraisal of prediction model studies.

[Construction of key question list in the evidence-based guidelines for colorectal cancer screening in China]

Objective: To establish the key question list for the development of evidence- based guideline in China according to the content and limitation of current evidence-based guidelines around the world. Methods: First, we introduced the evidence-based guidelines in detail which met the criteria based on World Health Organization guideline development handbook and then formulated the draft list of key questions for the development of evidence-based guidelines. At last, the Delphi method was used to determine the list of key questions in developing evidence-based guidelines of colorectal cancer screening. Results: Totally, 34 questionnaires were collected, with experts from clinical and epidemiological fields. The average experts' authority coefficient was 0.81, indicating a high degree of authority. The concentration of opinions on all items in the questionnaire was relatively high, with the full score ratio greater than 75% and the coefficient of variation less than 0.3. The list of key questions on evidence-based guidelines for colorectal cancer screening has been divided into six parts: epidemiological problems, risk classification, screening age, screening tools, implementation and selection of steering group members, which covers the issues that need to be considered in the development of evidence-based colorectal cancer screening guidelines in China. Conclusion: The key question list for evidence-based guideline development in our study can be applied to the development of evidence-based guidelines for colorectal cancer screening in the future, as well as the development of evidence-based guidelines for other cancer screening in China.

How many lymph nodes should be dissected in esophagectomy with or without neoadjuvant therapy to get accurate staging?

It is essential to dissect an adequate number of lymph nodes (LNs) to ensure staging accuracy during esophagectomy with or without neoadjuvant therapy. We developed a statistical model to quantify the probability of precise nodal staging based on previous studies. Esophageal cancer patients who underwent esophagectomy were retrospectively reviewed in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. A β-binomial distribution was adopted to estimate the number of understaged patients based on the numbers of positive and examined LNs. Using 6,252 patients, we estimated a 90% confidence of accurate N0 staging could be achieved by examining 17 LNs without neoadjuvant therapy. To obtain similar accuracy in N1 and N2, 20 and 25 LNs should be examined. For patients with neoadjuvant therapy, 18, 19, and 28 LNs could achieve the same accuracy. Staging accuracy was a significant prognostic factor. We found when 90% confidence had been achieved, patient survival did not improve with more LNs examined and the ratio and log odds of positive LNs did not have significant prognostic values. The statistical model we developed for precise staging in patients with different N stages is of great value in guiding lymphadenectomy. It provided risk assessment for underestimated LN metastases and guided subsequent adjuvant treatment.

The Prevalence and Clinical Characteristics of Essential Tremor in Elderly Chineses: A Population-Based Study

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the prevalence and the clinical feature of essential tremor (ET) in a community cohort in Beijing.

METHODS

Using a door-to-door, two-phase approach, we investigated 2,835 residents aged ≥55 years old from rural, urban, and mountain areas.

RESULTS

The prevalence rate of ET was 4.29%, 2.85%, and 2.29% in rural, urban, and mountain areas, respectively. The overall age- and sex-adjusted prevalence was 3.29%. Among those aged ≥75 years, the prevalence rate in the urban area was higher than those in the rural and mountain areas. The prevalence rate increased with age, and the prevalence was higher among men (6.0%) than among women (3.6%). There was a correlation of ET prevalence with age, sex, and habitation area, but not with alcohol, tea drinking, and occupation. Women (25%) with ET were more likely to have head tremor than men (16.9%).

CONCLUSIONS

The ET prevalence in the elderly of Beijing was 3.29% which is higher in the urban area and in men.

A Multicenter Study of Multimorbidity in Older Adult Inpatients in China

OBJECTIVES

Multimorbidity is common in older hospitalized adults. To date, however, few studies have addressed multimorbidity in the older population of Chinese inpatients. We aimed to investigate the multimorbidity rate and associated risk factors in older adult inpatients in China.

DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS

This study was conducted in the medical wards of a tertiary-care hospital from. The patients were recruited aged between 60 to 101 (74.14±8.46) years.

MEASUREMENTS

Data were obtained from the China Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment Study, conducted in 2011-2012 in China. A total of 4,633 inpatients older than 60 years was recruited from 12 hospitals in 7 cities throughout China. The prevalence of comorbidity, distribution of common chronic diseases, and the associated risk factors were studied.

RESULTS

A total of 4,348 people aged 60 to 101 (74.14±8.46) years completed questionnaires. The average frequency of multimorbidity was 69.3% (95% CI, 67.9% to 70.6%). The prevalence of multimorbidity increased with age and was higher in men (71.6%; 95% CI, 69.9% to 73.3%) than in women (65.3%, 95% CI 63.0% to 67.6%), and higher in the northern region (71.7%, 95% CI 69.9% to 73.5%) than in the southern region (66.0%; 95% CI, 63.8% to 68.1%). The most frequent chronic diseases were hypertension, coronary heart disease, diabetes, cataract, and stroke. Area (OR=0.556; 95% CI, 0.465 to 0.666), region (OR=0.834; 95% CI, 0.723 to 0.962), body mass index (BMI) (OR=1.124; 95% CI, 1.017 to 1.242), and impairment of activities of daily living (OR=0.911; 95% CI, 0.855 to 0.970) were independent factors associated with multimorbidity.

CONCLUSIONS

Multimorbidity is common in older Chinese inpatients with a national prevalence of 69.3% that increases in line with age. Age, region, area, BMI, and daily activities were independent factors significantly associated with multimorbidity in older inpatients. Clinicians should therefore focus more attention on multimorbidity.

Nonlinear optical response spatial self-phase modulation in MoTe2: correlations between χ(3) and mobility or effective mass

We report on an unambiguous observation of the third-order nonlinear optical effect, spatial self-phase modulation (SSPM), in a MoTe₂ dispersion. The values of the third-order nonlinear optical coefficients effectively for one-layer MoTe₂, χone-layer(3), are obtained through the SSPM method at excitation wavelengths 473, 532, 750, and 801 nm, respectively. The wind-chime model is used to explain the ring formation time. The wavelength dependence of χone-layer(3) compares well with the photo-absorption spectra. Significantly, we find a correlation between χ⁽³⁾ and the carrier mobility μ or effective mass m*, which again further supports the laser-induced ac electron coherence in 2D materials.

[Screening and antibiotic resistance analysis of nasal colonized bacteria in patients with chronic rhinosinusitis]

Objective:Since bacterial infection is one of the common pathogenic factors lead to chronic rhinosinusitis （CRS）, our study is designed to investigate the prevalence and antibiotic resistance of nasal colonized bacteria in patients with CRS, and to analyze the correlation between nasal colonized bacteria and pathogenesis of CRS. Method:Nasal vestibule samples collected from 200 patients with CRS were automatically inoculated on to various bacterial culture medium, cultured by WaspLab microbiology automated system, potential pathogenic bacterial colonies grew on agar plates were then examined, identified by matrix-assisted laser desorption ionization-time of flight mass spectrometry, and analyzed their antibiotic-resistant phenotype by antibiotic susceptibility testing. Result:Two hundred and seventy-five bacterial strains of nasal colonization were isolated, including coagulase-negative Staphylococci, Staphylococcus aureus, Streptococcus pneumonia, Moraxella catarrhalis, Haemophilus influenza, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, and Enterobacteriaceae such as Escherichia coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae. All strains displayed various degrees of antimicrobial resistance among children and adult patients, or among patients with and without endoscopic sinus surgery. Conclusion:The constitution of nasal colonized commensal bacteria in patients with CRS was partially similar to that of pathogenic bacteria causing CRS. They may form a reservoir of antimicrobial resistant pathogens, which would transform into pathogenic bacteria causing CRS under certain conditions. Screening of nasal colonized bacteria may represent an alternative approach for diagnosis and treatment of CRS.

[Introduction to PRISMA-CI extension statement and checklist systematic reviews on complex interventions]

Comprehensive interventions have been widely used in health system, public health, education and communities and have become increasingly focus of systematic reviews. There have been many reporting guidelines about systematic reviews, but they do not take the features of comprehensive interventions in medical area into consideration. As a result, PRISMA-CI has been developed as an extension of PRISMA, which adds or modifies the essential items of PRISMA. This paper introduces the items of PRISMA-CI and explains the items with an example to help authors, publishers, and readers understand PRISMA-CI and use it in systematic reviews on comprehensive interventions. As it become more and more popular with comprehensive interventions, PRISMA-CI will provide important structure and guidance for its systematic review and Meta-analysis.

Genome-wide identification and expression analysis reveal the potential function of ethylene responsive factor gene family in response to Botrytis cinerea infection and ovule development in grapes (Vitis vinifera L.)

The prevention of Botrytis cinerea infection and the study of grape seedlessness are very important for grape industries. Finding correlated regulatory genes is an important approach towards understanding their molecular mechanisms. Ethylene responsive factor (ERF) gene family play critical roles in defence networks and the growth of plants. To date, no large-scale study of the ERF proteins associated with pathogen defence and ovule development has been performed in grape (Vitis vinifera L.). In the present study, we identified 113 ERF genes (VvERF) and named them based on their chromosome locations. The ERF genes could be divided into 11 groups based on a multiple sequence alignment and a phylogenetic comparison with homologues from Arabidopsis thaliana. Synteny analysis and Ka/Ks ratio calculation suggested that segmental and tandem duplications contributed to the expansion of the ERF gene family. The evolutionary relationships between the VvERF genes were investigated by exon-intron structure characterisation, and an analysis of the cis-acting regulatory elements in their promoters suggested potential regulation after stress or hormone treatments. Expression profiling after infection with the fungus, B. cinerea, indicated that ERF genes function in responses to pathogen attack. In addition, the expression levels of most ERF genes were much higher during ovule development in seedless grapes, suggesting a role in ovule abortion related to seedlessness. Taken together, these results indicate that VvERF proteins are involved in responses to Botrytis cinerea infection and in grape ovule development. This information may help guide strategies to improve grape production.

[Quality assessment of global guidelines on colorectal cancer screening]

OBJECTIVE

To systematically review and assess the quality of guidelines on colorectal cancer screening worldwide to provide guidance for the development of high-quality colorectal cancer screening guidelines in mainland China.

METHODS

CNKI, WanFang Data, VIP, SinoMed, PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science were systematically searched to identify guidelines on colorectal cancer screening from inception to Jun. 20th, 2018, and so were some websites and major search engines about the development of the guidelines from the existing literature (search date: Aug. 3rd, 2018). Two experienced reviewers independently examined these abstracts and then extracted information, and the Appraisal of Guidelines for Research and Evaluation II (AGREE II) were used to evaluate the methodological quality of these guidelines by four well trained reviewers.

RESULTS

In this study, 46 guidelines published from 1994 to 2018 were finally included in our analysis from 10 countries and 5 regions, among which 5 were from mainland China. The quality of these guidelines was relatively high in domain 1 (scope and purpose) and domain 4 (clarity of presentation), and medium in domain 2 (stakeholder involvement). While in the other three domains (domain 3: rigour of development; domain 5: applicability; domain 6: editorial independence), the results were quite different among these guidelines. The quality of evidence-based guidelines (defined by the criteria based on World Health Organization guideline development handbook) was generally higher than that of the common guidelines. Existing guidelines from mainland China were not evidence-based guidelines, which were of low quality.

CONCLUSION

The colorectal cancer screening guidelines all over the world are generally large in number, low in quality, different in statements, and so are the guidelines in China. There are no evidence-based guidelines in mainland China, which cannot provide effective guidance for colorectal cancer screening, so we need to pay more attention to the establishment of guidelines with high quality and high credibility for colorectal cancer screening as well as for cancer screening based on the national condition, in order to provide reasonable guidance for practice in public health and improve the health conditions in our society.

[Risk of bias assessment: (7) Assessing Bias in Studies of Prognostic Factors]

This paper introduces the tools related to Quality In Prognosis Studies (QUIPS) to assess the risk of bias in studies of prognostic factors and the relevant points of assessment and to illustrate the application of QUIPS in published prognostic research. The QUIPS tool identified 6 important areas to consider when evaluating validity and bias in studies of prognostic factors including participation, attrition, measurement on prognostic factors, outcomes, confounding factors, statistical analysis and reporting. It also provided a new method for evaluation on bias in the areas of prognostic research.

[Risk of bias assessment: (1) overview]

This paper reviews the concept of risk of bias, followed by demonstrating why assessment of risk of bias in systematic reviews should be different from that of quality of evidence, methodological quality, reporting quality, precision, and external validity. We also discuss the recent development of tools for risk of bias assessment, the problems with the tools themselves, and the challenges in using these tools. This review may help systematic reviewers understand risk of bias assessment and the use of assessment tools.

Abstract P3-14-02: Upper extremity edema in the at-risk arm among patients receiving PI3K/mTOR/CDK4/6 inhibitors for metastatic breast cancer

Background: Targeted therapies, including mTOR and CDK 4/6 inhibitors, have changed the landscape of management of hormone receptor-positive (HR+) metastatic breast cancer (MBC). These therapies have shown significant improvement in progression-free survival and are generally well-tolerated. In pre-clinical models, modulation of the PI3K/mTOR pathway can impede lymphoangiogenesis resulting in capillary leakage. In this study, we examined the impact of PI3K, mTOR, and CDK 4/6 inhibitors in the development of upper extremity edema (UEE) in the at-risk arm for breast cancer-related lymphedema (BCRL) in patients with MBC.

Methods: We conducted a retrospective chart review of patients treated with PI3K/mTOR/CDK4/6 inhibitors for MBC. Clinicopathologic data including age, body-mass index (BMI), specific pathway targeted, treatment duration, and presence of edema were recorded. Characteristics of treatment including surgery type and laterality, nodal surgery, radiation regimen, and tumor subtype were also collected.

Results: Among patients with MBC treated with PI3K, mTOR, and/or CDK 4/6 inhibitors (N = 160), the incidence of edema that developed after initiation of the targeted therapy was 11.3% (18/160) for UEE and 31.9% (51/160) for edema in any anatomical location. 50.0% (11/22) of patients treated with a PI3K-a inhibitor, 32.6% (14/43) of patients treated with an mTOR inhibitor, and 33.3% (8/24) of patients treated with a CDK4/6 inhibitor alone developed peripheral edema following initiation of the respective targeted therapy. Further, swelling developed in the at-risk upper extremity after C1D1 in 13.6% (3/22) patients treated with a PI3K-α inhibitor exclusively, 7.0% (3/43) treated with an mTOR inhibitor exclusively, and in 12.5% (3/24) treated with a CDK4/6 inhibitor exclusively. Of the 42 patients treated with a CDK4/6 inhibitor in combination with either an mTOR inhibitor, aromatase inhibitor, or an ER-binding promoter, the incidence of UEE in the at-risk upper extremity after C1D1 was 18.8% (6/32), 0.0% (0/7), and 0.0% (0/3) respectively. In multivariate logistic regression analysis, both therapy with PI3K-a inhibitors (OR: 3.22; p = 0.049) and a relative decrease in serum albumin after 3 months of treatment (OR: 3.35, p = 0.024) increased the risk of developing peripheral edema; however, duration of therapy, and nodal surgery were not significant risk factors. Upon stratification of this cohort by number of BCRL-related risk factors, the incidence of BCRL was 18.3%, 39.5%, and 83.3% in women with one, two, or three BCRL-related risk factors, respectively.

Conclusions: PI3K, mTOR, and CDK 4/6 inhibitors may influence the development of UEE, which may cause or exacerbate progression of BCRL in at-risk arm among patients with MBC. Further research is needed to prospectively evaluate these novel findings as well as elucidate physiologic and clinical impacts of these therapies on peripheral edema and BRCL. Moreover, it is crucial to understand the role of close monitoring for the development or progression of peripheral edema or BCRL to ensure early detection and treatment, thus potentially minimizing the negative impacts on the quality of life of patients with MBC.

Citation Format: Daniell KM, Bardia A, Sun F, Brunelle CL, Gillespie TC, Sayegh HE, Naoum GE, Isakoff SJ, Juric D, Taghian AG. Upper extremity edema in the at-risk arm among patients receiving PI3K/mTOR/CDK4/6 inhibitors for metastatic breast cancer [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2018 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2018 Dec 4-8; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2019;79(4 Suppl):Abstract nr P3-14-02.

Starch and dextrose at 2 levels of rumen-degradable protein in iso-nitrogenous diets: Effects on lactation performance, ruminal measurements, methane emission, digestibility, and nitrogen balance of dairy cows

Our objectives were to determine the effects of readily rumen-available carbohydrate source (refined starch vs. dextrose), the level of rumen-degradable protein (RDP), and their interaction on lactation performance, ruminal measurements, enteric methane (CH4) emission, nutrient digestibility, and nitrogen (N) balance in lactating dairy cows. Eighteen mid-lactation multiparous Holstein cows were used in this split-plot study. The main plots were created by randomly assigning 9 cows to diets of 11 or 9% RDP obtained by altering the percentage of soybean meal, expeller soybean meal, and blood meal in the diet. All diets included 16.4% crude protein. In the subplots, the effects of 0:10, 5:5, and 10:0 refined starch:dextrose ratio (% of dietary dry matter) were determined in three 3 × 3 Latin squares by randomly assigning the 9 cows in each RDP level into squares. Each period lasted 4 wk, with the last 2 wk allotted for sample collection. Carbohydrate source × RDP level interaction tended to influence dry matter intake (DMI), the concentration of urinary N, and urinary urea-N. Replacing refined starch with dextrose increased DMI, the molar percentage of ruminal butyrate and valerate, daily CH4 production (g/d), and fecal N and decreased the molar percentage of ruminal branched-chain volatile fatty acids, feed efficiency (fat- and protein-corrected milk/DMI), and N use efficiency (milk N/intake N) but did not influence nutrient digestibility. Enteric CH4 production was negatively related to the molar percentage of ruminal propionate but positively related to the molar percentage of ruminal butyrate. Treatments did not influence milk production responses, but cows fed 9% RDP diets had lower ruminal ammonia concentration (7.2 vs. 12.3 mg/dL) and tended to excrete less urinary purine derivatives (428 vs. 493 mmol/d) compared with cows fed 11% RDP diets, suggesting lower ruminal synthesis of microbial protein. Reducing the level of RDP in iso-nitrogenous diets had no effect on nutrient apparent total-tract digestibility, manure excretion and composition, N balance, and CH4 production. In this study, treatments did not affect yield (20.0 g of CH4/kg of DMI) or intensity (13.1 g of CH4/kg of fat- and protein-corrected milk), but methane production (g of CH4/d) was 7.0% lower and N use efficiency (conversion of intake N into milk protein) was 7.8% higher for cows fed a diet of 28.1% starch and 4.6% water-soluble carbohydrate compared with diets with lower starch and higher water-soluble carbohydrate contents.

[Introduction on 'assessing the risk of bias of individual studies' in systematic review of health-care intervention programs revised by the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality]

This paper summarizes the Risk of Bias of Individual Studies in Systematic Reviews of Health Care Interventions revised by the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ) and introduces how to use Revman software make risk of bias graph or risk of bias summary. AHRQ tool can be used to evaluate following study designs: RCTs, cohort study, case-control study (including nested case-control), case series study and cross-sectional study. The tool evaluates the risk of bias of individual studies from selection bias, performance bias, attrition bias, detection bias and reporting bias. Each of the bias domains contains different items, and each item is available for the assessment of one or more study designs. It is worth noting that the appropriate items should be selected for evaluation different study designs instead of using all items to directly assess the risk of bias. AHRQ tool can be used to evaluate risk of bias individual studies when systematic reviews of health care interventions is including different study designs. Moreover, the tool items are relatively easy to understand and the assessment process is not complicated. AHRQ recommends the use of high, medium and low risk classification methods to assess the overall risk of bias of individual studies. However, AHRQ gives no recommendations on how to determine the overall bias grade. It is expected that future research will give corresponding recommendations.

[Risk of bias assessment: (9) Application of the risk of bias assessment results]

In this last paper of the series about risk of bias assessment, we introduce the application of risk of bias assessment results. Risk of bias assessment is one of the key steps in the assessment of quality of evidence. The risk of bias assessment results could be the "diagnosis" of individual studies, which helps decision making related to the inclusion and exclusion of individual studies, as well as the data analysis in the systematic review process. This paper focuses on how to incorporate risk of bias assessment results in the GRADE assessment for quality of evidence, including the principles and the tips for the application.