Prognostic factors for severity and mortality in patients infected with COVID-19: A systematic review

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

The objective of our systematic review is to identify prognostic factors that may be used in decision-making related to the care of patients infected with COVID-19.

DATA SOURCES

We conducted highly sensitive searches in PubMed/MEDLINE, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) and Embase. The searches covered the period from the inception date of each database until April 28, 2020. No study design, publication status or language restriction were applied.

STUDY SELECTION AND DATA EXTRACTION

We included studies that assessed patients with confirmed or suspected SARS-CoV-2 infectious disease and examined one or more prognostic factors for mortality or disease severity. Reviewers working in pairs independently screened studies for eligibility, extracted data and assessed the risk of bias. We performed meta-analyses and used GRADE to assess the certainty of the evidence for each prognostic factor and outcome.

RESULTS

We included 207 studies and found high or moderate certainty that the following 49 variables provide valuable prognostic information on mortality and/or severe disease in patients with COVID-19 infectious disease: Demographic factors (age, male sex, smoking), patient history factors (comorbidities, cerebrovascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, chronic kidney disease, cardiovascular disease, cardiac arrhythmia, arterial hypertension, diabetes, dementia, cancer and dyslipidemia), physical examination factors (respiratory failure, low blood pressure, hypoxemia, tachycardia, dyspnea, anorexia, tachypnea, haemoptysis, abdominal pain, fatigue, fever and myalgia or arthralgia), laboratory factors (high blood procalcitonin, myocardial injury markers, high blood White Blood Cell count (WBC), high blood lactate, low blood platelet count, plasma creatinine increase, high blood D-dimer, high blood lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), high blood C-reactive protein (CRP), decrease in lymphocyte count, high blood aspartate aminotransferase (AST), decrease in blood albumin, high blood interleukin-6 (IL-6), high blood neutrophil count, high blood B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP), high blood urea nitrogen (BUN), high blood creatine kinase (CK), high blood bilirubin and high erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR)), radiological factors (consolidative infiltrate and pleural effusion) and high SOFA score (sequential organ failure assessment score).

CONCLUSION

Identified prognostic factors can help clinicians and policy makers in tailoring management strategies for patients with COVID-19 infectious disease while researchers can utilise our findings to develop multivariable prognostic models that could eventually facilitate decision-making and improve patient important outcomes.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

Prospero registration number: CRD42020178802. Protocol available at: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.08.20056598v1.

Preoperative prognostic factors associated with postoperative delirium in older people undergoing surgery: protocol for a systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Early identification of patients at risk for postoperative delirium is essential because adequate well-timed interventions could reduce the occurrence of delirium and the related detrimental outcomes.

METHODS

We will conduct a systematic review and individual patient data (IPD) meta-analysis of prognostic studies evaluating the predictive value of risk factors associated with an increased risk of postoperative delirium in elderly patients undergoing elective surgery. We will identify eligible studies through systematic search of MEDLINE, EMBASE, and CINAHL from their inception to May 2020. Eligible studies will enroll older adults (≥ 50 years) undergoing elective surgery and assess pre-operative prognostic risk factors for delirium and incidence of delirium measured by a trained individual using a validated delirium assessment tool. Pairs of reviewers will, independently and in duplicate, screen titles and abstracts of identified citations, review the full texts of potentially eligible studies. We will contact chief investigators of eligible studies requesting to share the IPD to a secured repository. We will use one-stage approach for IPD meta-analysis and will assess certainty of evidence using the GRADE approach.

DISCUSSION

Since we are using existing anonymized data, ethical approval is not required for this study. Our results can be used to guide clinical decisions about the most efficient way to prevent postoperative delirium in elderly patients.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

CRD42020171366 .

Resting Heart Rate as an Important Predictor of Mortality and Morbidity in Ambulatory Patients With Heart Failure: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

Resting heart rate is a risk factor of adverse heart failure outcomes; however, studies have shown controversial results. This meta-analysis evaluates the association of resting heart rate with mortality and hospitalization and identifies factors influencing its effect.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We systematically searched electronic databases in February 2019 for studies published in 2005 or before that evaluated the resting heart rate as a primary predictor or covariate of multivariable models of mortality and/or hospitalization in adult ambulatory patients with heart failure. Random effects inverse variance meta-analyses were performed to calculate pooled hazard ratios. The Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluation approach was used to assess evidence quality. Sixty-two studies on 163,445 patients proved eligible. Median population heart rate was 74 bpm (interquartile range 72-76 bpm). A 10-bpm increase was significantly associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio 1.10, 95% confidence interval 1.08-1.13, high quality). Overall, subgroup analyses related to patient characteristics showed no changes to the effect estimate; however, there was a strongly positive interaction with age showing increasing risk of all-cause mortality per 10 bpm increase in heart rate.

CONCLUSIONS

High-quality evidence demonstrates increasing resting heart rate is a significant predictor of all-cause mortality in ambulatory patients with heart failure on optimal medical therapy, with consistent effect across most patient factors and an increased risk trending with older age.

Predictors of Prolonged Opioid Use After Initial Prescription for Acute Musculoskeletal Injuries in Adults : A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of Observational Studies

BACKGROUND

Opioids are frequently prescribed for acute musculoskeletal injuries and may result in long-term use and consequent harms.

PURPOSE

To explore factors associated with persistent opioid use after its prescription for acute musculoskeletal injury.

DATA SOURCES

Searches of multiple electronic databases, without language restrictions, from inception to 6 January 2020, and reference lists of selected articles.

STUDY SELECTION

Observational studies of adults with opioid prescriptions for outpatient acute musculoskeletal injuries, in an adjusted model, that explored risk factors for prolonged use.

DATA EXTRACTION

6 reviewers, working in pairs, independently extracted data, rated the quality of studies, and evaluated the certainty of evidence.

DATA SYNTHESIS

14 cohorts with 13 263 393 participants were included. The overall prevalence of prolonged opioid use after musculoskeletal injury for high-risk populations (that is, patients receiving workers' compensation benefits, Veterans Affairs claimants, or patients with high rates of concurrent substance use disorder) was 27% (95% CI, 18% to 37%). The prevalence among low-risk populations was 6% (CI, 4% to 8%; P for interaction < 0.001). Moderate-certainty evidence showed increased odds of persistent opioid use with older age (absolute risk increase [ARI] for every 10-year increase, 1.1% [CI, 0.7% to 1.5%]) and physical comorbidity (ARI, 0.9% [CI, 0.1% to 1.7%]). Low-certainty evidence suggested increased risk for persistent opioid use with past or current substance use disorder (ARI, 10.5% [CI, 4.2% to 19.8%]), prescriptions lasting more than 7 days (median ARI, 4.5%), and higher morphine milligram equivalents per day.

LIMITATION

Sparse, heterogeneous data with suboptimal adjustment for potential confounders.

CONCLUSION

Avoiding prescribing opioids for acute musculoskeletal injuries to patients with past or current substance use disorder, and restricting duration to 7 days or less and using lower doses when they are prescribed, are potentially important targets to reduce rates of persistent opioid use.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

National Safety Council. (PROSPERO: CRD42018104968).

Predicting the Risk of Right Ventricular Failure in Patients Undergoing Left Ventricular Assist Device Implantation

Background:

Right ventricular failure (RVF) is a cause of major morbidity and mortality after left ventricular assist device (LVAD) implantation. It is, therefore, integral to identify patients who may benefit from biventricular support early post-LVAD implantation. Our objective was to explore the performance of risk prediction models for RVF in adult patients undergoing LVAD implantation.

Methods:

A systematic search was performed on Medline, Embase, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews from inception until August 2019 for all relevant studies. Performance was assessed by discrimination (via C statistic) and calibration if reported. Study quality was assessed using the Prediction Model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool criteria.

Results:

After reviewing 3878 citations, 25 studies were included, featuring 20 distinctly derived models. Five models were derived from large multicenter cohorts: the European Registry for Patients With Mechanical Circulatory Support, Interagency Registry for Mechanically Assisted Circulatory Support, Kormos, Pittsburgh Bayesian, and Mechanical Circulatory Support Research Network RVF models. Seventeen studies (68%) were conducted in cohorts implanted with continuous-flow LVADs exclusively. The definition of RVF as an outcome was heterogenous among models. Seven derived models (28%) were validated in at least 2 cohorts, reporting limited discrimination (C-statistic range, 0.53–0.65). Calibration was reported in only 3 studies and was variable.

Conclusions:

Existing RVF prediction models exhibit heterogeneous derivation and validation methodologies, varying definitions of RVF, and are mostly derived from single centers. Validation studies of these prediction models demonstrate poor-to-modest discrimination. Newer models are derived in cohorts implanted with continuous-flow LVADs exclusively and exhibit modest discrimination. Derivation of enhanced discriminatory models and their validations in multicenter cohorts is needed.

Prognostic models for newly-diagnosed chronic lymphocytic leukaemia in adults: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Chronic lymphocytic leukaemia (CLL) is the most common cancer of the lymphatic system in Western countries. Several clinical and biological factors for CLL have been identified. However, it remains unclear which of the available prognostic models combining those factors can be used in clinical practice to predict long-term outcome in people newly-diagnosed with CLL.

OBJECTIVES

To identify, describe and appraise all prognostic models developed to predict overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS) or treatment-free survival (TFS) in newly-diagnosed (previously untreated) adults with CLL, and meta-analyse their predictive performances.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched MEDLINE (from January 1950 to June 2019 via Ovid), Embase (from 1974 to June 2019) and registries of ongoing trials (to 5 March 2020) for development and validation studies of prognostic models for untreated adults with CLL. In addition, we screened the reference lists and citation indices of included studies.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included all prognostic models developed for CLL which predict OS, PFS, or TFS, provided they combined prognostic factors known before treatment initiation, and any studies that tested the performance of these models in individuals other than the ones included in model development (i.e. 'external model validation studies'). We included studies of adults with confirmed B-cell CLL who had not received treatment prior to the start of the study. We did not restrict the search based on study design.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

We developed a data extraction form to collect information based on the Checklist for Critical Appraisal and Data Extraction for Systematic Reviews of Prediction Modelling Studies (CHARMS). Independent pairs of review authors screened references, extracted data and assessed risk of bias according to the Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool (PROBAST). For models that were externally validated at least three times, we aimed to perform a quantitative meta-analysis of their predictive performance, notably their calibration (proportion of people predicted to experience the outcome who do so) and discrimination (ability to differentiate between people with and without the event) using a random-effects model. When a model categorised individuals into risk categories, we pooled outcome frequencies per risk group (low, intermediate, high and very high). We did not apply GRADE as guidance is not yet available for reviews of prognostic models.

MAIN RESULTS

From 52 eligible studies, we identified 12 externally validated models: six were developed for OS, one for PFS and five for TFS. In general, reporting of the studies was poor, especially predictive performance measures for calibration and discrimination; but also basic information, such as eligibility criteria and the recruitment period of participants was often missing. We rated almost all studies at high or unclear risk of bias according to PROBAST. Overall, the applicability of the models and their validation studies was low or unclear; the most common reasons were inappropriate handling of missing data and serious reporting deficiencies concerning eligibility criteria, recruitment period, observation time and prediction performance measures. We report the results for three models predicting OS, which had available data from more than three external validation studies: CLL International Prognostic Index (CLL-IPI) This score includes five prognostic factors: age, clinical stage, IgHV mutational status, B2-microglobulin and TP53 status. Calibration: for the low-, intermediate- and high-risk groups, the pooled five-year survival per risk group from validation studies corresponded to the frequencies observed in the model development study. In the very high-risk group, predicted survival from CLL-IPI was lower than observed from external validation studies. Discrimination: the pooled c-statistic of seven external validation studies (3307 participants, 917 events) was 0.72 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.67 to 0.77). The 95% prediction interval (PI) of this model for the c-statistic, which describes the expected interval for the model's discriminative ability in a new external validation study, ranged from 0.59 to 0.83. Barcelona-Brno score Aimed at simplifying the CLL-IPI, this score includes three prognostic factors: IgHV mutational status, del(17p) and del(11q). Calibration: for the low- and intermediate-risk group, the pooled survival per risk group corresponded to the frequencies observed in the model development study, although the score seems to overestimate survival for the high-risk group. Discrimination: the pooled c-statistic of four external validation studies (1755 participants, 416 events) was 0.64 (95% CI 0.60 to 0.67); 95% PI 0.59 to 0.68. MDACC 2007 index score The authors presented two versions of this model including six prognostic factors to predict OS: age, B2-microglobulin, absolute lymphocyte count, gender, clinical stage and number of nodal groups. Only one validation study was available for the more comprehensive version of the model, a formula with a nomogram, while seven studies (5127 participants, 994 events) validated the simplified version of the model, the index score. Calibration: for the low- and intermediate-risk groups, the pooled survival per risk group corresponded to the frequencies observed in the model development study, although the score seems to overestimate survival for the high-risk group. Discrimination: the pooled c-statistic of the seven external validation studies for the index score was 0.65 (95% CI 0.60 to 0.70); 95% PI 0.51 to 0.77.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Despite the large number of published studies of prognostic models for OS, PFS or TFS for newly-diagnosed, untreated adults with CLL, only a minority of these (N = 12) have been externally validated for their respective primary outcome. Three models have undergone sufficient external validation to enable meta-analysis of the model's ability to predict survival outcomes. Lack of reporting prevented us from summarising calibration as recommended. Of the three models, the CLL-IPI shows the best discrimination, despite overestimation. However, performance of the models may change for individuals with CLL who receive improved treatment options, as the models included in this review were tested mostly on retrospective cohorts receiving a traditional treatment regimen. In conclusion, this review shows a clear need to improve the conducting and reporting of both prognostic model development and external validation studies. For prognostic models to be used as tools in clinical practice, the development of the models (and their subsequent validation studies) should adapt to include the latest therapy options to accurately predict performance. Adaptations should be timely.

Drug treatments for covid-19: living systematic review and network meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To compare the effects of treatments for coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19).

DESIGN

Living systematic review and network meta-analysis.

DATA SOURCES

WHO covid-19 database, a comprehensive multilingual source of global covid-19 literature, up to 3 December 2021 and six additional Chinese databases up to 20 February 2021. Studies identified as of 1 December 2021 were included in the analysis.

STUDY SELECTION

Randomised clinical trials in which people with suspected, probable, or confirmed covid-19 were randomised to drug treatment or to standard care or placebo. Pairs of reviewers independently screened potentially eligible articles.

METHODS

After duplicate data abstraction, a bayesian network meta-analysis was conducted. Risk of bias of the included studies was assessed using a modification of the Cochrane risk of bias 2.0 tool, and the certainty of the evidence using the grading of recommendations assessment, development, and evaluation (GRADE) approach. For each outcome, interventions were classified in groups from the most to the least beneficial or harmful following GRADE guidance.

RESULTS

463 trials enrolling 166 581 patients were included; 267 (57.7%) trials and 89 814 (53.9%) patients are new from the previous iteration; 265 (57.2%) trials evaluating treatments with at least 100 patients or 20 events met the threshold for inclusion in the analyses. Compared with standard care, three drugs reduced mortality in patients with mostly severe disease with at least moderate certainty: systemic corticosteroids (risk difference 23 fewer per 1000 patients, 95% credible interval 40 fewer to 7 fewer, moderate certainty), interleukin-6 receptor antagonists when given with corticosteroids (23 fewer per 1000, 36 fewer to 7 fewer, moderate certainty), and Janus kinase inhibitors (44 fewer per 1000, 64 fewer to 20 fewer, high certainty). Compared with standard care, two drugs probably reduce hospital admission in patients with non-severe disease: nirmatrelvir/ritonavir (36 fewer per 1000, 41 fewer to 26 fewer, moderate certainty) and molnupiravir (19 fewer per 1000, 29 fewer to 5 fewer, moderate certainty). Remdesivir may reduce hospital admission (29 fewer per 1000, 40 fewer to 6 fewer, low certainty). Only molnupiravir had at least moderate quality evidence of a reduction in time to symptom resolution (3.3 days fewer, 4.8 fewer to 1.6 fewer, moderate certainty); several others showed a possible benefit. Several drugs may increase the risk of adverse effects leading to drug discontinuation; hydroxychloroquine probably increases the risk of mechanical ventilation (moderate certainty).

CONCLUSION

Corticosteroids, interleukin-6 receptor antagonists, and Janus kinase inhibitors probably reduce mortality and confer other important benefits in patients with severe covid-19. Molnupiravir and nirmatrelvir/ritonavir probably reduce admission to hospital in patients with non-severe covid-19.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

This review was not registered. The protocol is publicly available in the supplementary material.

READERS' NOTE

This article is a living systematic review that will be updated to reflect emerging evidence. Updates may occur for up to two years from the date of original publication. This is the fifth version of the original article published on 30 July 2020 (BMJ 2020;370:m2980), and previous versions can be found as data supplements. When citing this paper please consider adding the version number and date of access for clarity.

Management of Acute Decompensated Heart Failure in the Cardiac Intensive Care Unit: The Importance of Co-management With a Heart Failure Specialist

Background

Heart failure (HF) is a common reason for admission to the cardiac intensive care unit. We sought to identify the role of an HF consultation service in improving the management of this patient population.

Methods

We identified all adult patients admitted to the cardiac intensive care unit (2014-2015) at the University Health Network with a diagnosis of acute decompensated HF ± cardiogenic shock (CS). Clinical characteristics and course were recorded. We calculated a propensity score–adjusted association between HF consultation and in-hospital mortality.

Results

A total of 285 unique patients were identified in our cohort. Of these, 82 (28.7%) died. A total of 150 patients (52.6%) were co-managed by an HF service, and 135 patients (47.3%) were not. Patients who were managed by an HF team were younger (52.5 vs 68.0 years, P < 0.0001), were more likely to be admitted with CS (61.3 vs 41.5%, P < 0.0009), and had higher rates of vasoactive medications during their admission (69.3% vs 52.6%, P < 0.005). At discharge, there were higher rates of discharge to a HF clinic (52.0% vs 27.5%, P < 0.0001) and prescription of guideline-directed medical therapy. In-hospital mortality was lower in those co-managed by a HF team (16.7% vs 42.2%, P < 0.0001). HF consultation reduced the odds of readmission by 76% (odds ratio, 0.24; 95% confidence interval, 0.13-0.47).

Conclusions

Patients managed by a HF team were more likely to be in CS at admission, to survive to discharge from hospital, and to be initiated on guideline-directed medical therapy with HF follow-up.

Evaluating the credibility of anchor based estimates of minimal important differences for patient reported outcomes: instrument development and reliability study

OBJECTIVE

To develop an instrument to evaluate the credibility of anchor based minimal important differences (MIDs) for outcome measures reported by patients, and to assess the reliability of the instrument.

DESIGN

Instrument development and reliability study.

DATA SOURCES

Initial criteria were developed for evaluating the credibility of anchor based MIDs based on a literature review (Medline, Embase, CINAHL, and PsycInfo databases) and the experience of the authors in the methodology for estimation of MIDs. Iterative discussions by the team and pilot testing with experts and potential users facilitated the development of the final instrument.

PARTICIPANTS

With the newly developed instrument, pairs of masters, doctoral, or postdoctoral students with a background in health research methodology independently evaluated the credibility of a sample of MID estimates.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Core credibility criteria applicable to all anchor types, additional criteria for transition rating anchors, and inter-rater reliability coefficients were determined.

RESULTS

The credibility instrument has five core criteria: the anchor is rated by the patient; the anchor is interpretable and relevant to the patient; the MID estimate is precise; the correlation between the anchor and the outcome measure reported by the patient is satisfactory; and the authors select a threshold on the anchor that reflects a small but important difference. The additional criteria for transition rating anchors are: the time elapsed between baseline and follow-up measurement for estimation of the MID is optimal; and the correlations of the transition rating with the baseline, follow-up, and change score in the patient reported outcome measures are satisfactory. Inter-rater reliability coefficients (ĸ) for the core criteria and for one item from the additional criteria ranged from 0.70 to 0.94. Reporting issues prevented the evaluation of the reliability of the three other additional criteria for the transition rating anchors.

CONCLUSIONS

Researchers, clinicians, and healthcare policy decision makers can consider using this instrument to evaluate the design, conduct, and analysis of studies estimating anchor based minimal important differences.

Prognostic Value of Late Gadolinium Enhancement for the Prediction of Cardiovascular Outcomes in Dilated Cardiomyopathy: An International, Multi-Institutional Study of the MINICOR Group

BACKGROUND

Dilated cardiomyopathy is associated with increased risk of major cardiovascular events. Late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) cardiac magnetic resonance imaging is a unique tissue-based marker that, in single-center studies, suggests strong prognostic value. We retrospectively studied associations between LGE presence and adverse cardiovascular events in patients with dilated cardiomyopathy in a multicenter setting as part of an emerging global consortium (MINICOR [Multi-Modal International Cardiovascular Outcomes Registry]).

METHODS

Consecutive patients with dilated cardiomyopathy referred for cardiac magnetic resonance (2000-2017) at 12 institutions in 4 countries were studied. Using multivariable Cox proportional hazard and semiparametric Fine and Gray models, we evaluated the association between LGE and the composite primary end point of all-cause mortality, heart transplantation, or left ventricular assist device implant and a secondary arrhythmic end point of sudden cardiac death or appropriate implantable cardioverter-defibrillator shock.

RESULTS

We studied 1672 patients, mean age 56±14 years (29% female), left ventricular ejection fraction 33±11%, and 25% having New York Heart Association class III to IV; 650 patients (39%) had LGE. During 2.3 years (interquartile range, 1.0-4.3) follow-up, 160 patients experienced the primary end point, and 88 experienced the arrhythmic end point. In multivariable analyses, LGE was associated with 1.5-fold (hazard ratio, 1.45 [95% CI, 1.03-2.04]) risk of the primary end point and 1.8-fold (hazard ratio, 1.82 [95% CI, 1.20-3.06]) risk of the arrhythmic end point. Primary end point risk was increased in patients with multiple LGE patterns, although arrhythmic risk was higher among patients receiving primary prevention implantable cardioverter-defibrillator and widening QRS.

CONCLUSIONS

In this large multinational study of patients with dilated cardiomyopathy, the presence of LGE showed strong prognostic value for identification of high-risk patients. Randomized controlled trials evaluating LGE-based care management strategies are warranted.

Utility of the INTERMACS profile at the time of assessment for heart transplant

The Interagency Registry of Mechanically Assisted Circulatory Support (INTERMACS) profiles are associated with mortality in heart failure patients undergoing ventricular assist device (VAD) implantation and heart transplantation (HTx). We assessed the prognostic value of the INTERMACS profile at the time of assessment for HTx or durable VAD implantation as bridge to candidacy (BTC). A total of 503 consecutive patients considered for HTx or VAD between 2006 and 2016 were included. The associations between INTERMACS profile and (a) waitlist mortality or delisting, (b) probability of HTx, and (c) overall mortality or delisting were evaluated using multivariable analysis. Median follow-up time was 2.9 years (IQR: 0.9-5.5) during which 184 received VAD, 347 received HTx, and 73 died (27 waitlist, 46 post-transplant). INTERMACS I-II profile was associated with higher waitlist mortality or delisting (HR: 3.83, 95% CI: 1.22-12.03), and this risk was reversed by VAD implantation (HR: 0.12, 95% CI: 0.03-0.50). INTERMACS III-IV profile was associated with a higher probability of HTx (HR: 1.82, 95% CI: 1.37-2.40). INTERMACS profile was not associated with the composite outcome of overall mortality or delisting. These results emphasize the prognostic utility of INTERMACS at time of decision for advanced therapies and its potential value in selecting patients for different interventions.

Interim PET-results for prognosis in adults with Hodgkin lymphoma: a systematic review and meta-analysis of prognostic factor studies

BACKGROUND

Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) is one of the most common haematological malignancies in young adults and, with cure rates of 90%, has become curable for the majority of individuals. Positron emission tomography (PET) is an imaging tool used to monitor a tumour's metabolic activity, stage and progression. Interim PET during chemotherapy has been posited as a prognostic factor in individuals with HL to distinguish between those with a poor prognosis and those with a better prognosis. This distinction is important to inform decision-making on the clinical pathway of individuals with HL.

OBJECTIVES

To determine whether in previously untreated adults with HL receiving first-line therapy, interim PET scan results can distinguish between those with a poor prognosis and those with a better prognosis, and thereby predict survival outcomes in each group.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched MEDLINE, Embase, CENTRAL and conference proceedings up until April 2019. We also searched one trial registry (ClinicalTrials.gov).

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included retrospective and prospective studies evaluating interim PET scans in a minimum of 10 individuals with HL (all stages) undergoing first-line therapy. Interim PET was defined as conducted during therapy (after one, two, three or four treatment cycles). The minimum follow-up period was at least 12 months. We excluded studies if the trial design allowed treatment modification based on the interim PET scan results.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

We developed a data extraction form according to the Checklist for Critical Appraisal and Data Extraction for Systematic Reviews of Prediction Modelling Studies (CHARMS). Two teams of two review authors independently screened the studies, extracted data on overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS) and PET-associated adverse events (AEs), assessed risk of bias (per outcome) according to the Quality in Prognosis Studies (QUIPS) tool, and assessed the certainty of the evidence (GRADE). We contacted investigators to obtain missing information and data.

MAIN RESULTS

Our literature search yielded 11,277 results. In total, we included 23 studies (99 references) with 7335 newly-diagnosed individuals with classic HL (all stages). Participants in 16 studies underwent (interim) PET combined with computed tomography (PET-CT), compared to PET only in the remaining seven studies. The standard chemotherapy regimen included ABVD (16) studies, compared to BEACOPP or other regimens (seven studies). Most studies (N = 21) conducted interim PET scans after two cycles (PET2) of chemotherapy, although PET1, PET3 and PET4 were also reported in some studies. In the meta-analyses, we used PET2 data if available as we wanted to ensure homogeneity between studies. In most studies interim PET scan results were evaluated according to the Deauville 5-point scale (N = 12). Eight studies were not included in meta-analyses due to missing information and/or data; results were reported narratively. For the remaining studies, we pooled the unadjusted hazard ratio (HR). The timing of the outcome measurement was after two or three years (the median follow-up time ranged from 22 to 65 months) in the pooled studies. Eight studies explored the independent prognostic ability of interim PET by adjusting for other established prognostic factors (e.g. disease stage, B symptoms). We did not pool the results because the multivariable analyses adjusted for a different set of factors in each study. Overall survival Twelve (out of 23) studies reported OS. Six of these were assessed as low risk of bias in all of the first four domains of QUIPS (study participation, study attrition, prognostic factor measurement and outcome measurement). The other six studies were assessed as unclear, moderate or high risk of bias in at least one of these four domains. Four studies were assessed as low risk, and eight studies as high risk of bias for the domain other prognostic factors (covariates). Nine studies were assessed as low risk, and three studies as high risk of bias for the domain 'statistical analysis and reporting'. We pooled nine studies with 1802 participants. Participants with HL who have a negative interim PET scan result probably have a large advantage in OS compared to those with a positive interim PET scan result (unadjusted HR 5.09, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.64 to 9.81, I² = 44%, moderate-certainty evidence). In absolute values, this means that 900 out of 1000 participants with a negative interim PET scan result will probably survive longer than three years compared to 585 (95% CI 356 to 757) out of 1000 participants with a positive result. Adjusted results from two studies also indicate an independent prognostic value of interim PET scan results (moderate-certainty evidence). Progression-free survival Twenty-one studies reported PFS. Eleven out of 21 were assessed as low risk of bias in the first four domains. The remaining were assessed as unclear, moderate or high risk of bias in at least one of the four domains. Eleven studies were assessed as low risk, and ten studies as high risk of bias for the domain other prognostic factors (covariates). Eight studies were assessed as high risk, thirteen as low risk of bias for statistical analysis and reporting. We pooled 14 studies with 2079 participants. Participants who have a negative interim PET scan result may have an advantage in PFS compared to those with a positive interim PET scan result, but the evidence is very uncertain (unadjusted HR 4.90, 95% CI 3.47 to 6.90, I² = 45%, very low-certainty evidence). This means that 850 out of 1000 participants with a negative interim PET scan result may be progression-free longer than three years compared to 451 (95% CI 326 to 569) out of 1000 participants with a positive result. Adjusted results (not pooled) from eight studies also indicate that there may be an independent prognostic value of interim PET scan results (low-certainty evidence). PET-associated adverse events No study measured PET-associated AEs.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

This review provides moderate-certainty evidence that interim PET scan results predict OS, and very low-certainty evidence that interim PET scan results predict progression-free survival in treated individuals with HL. This evidence is primarily based on unadjusted data. More studies are needed to test the adjusted prognostic ability of interim PET against established prognostic factors.

Risk Factors for 1-Year Graft Loss After Kidney Transplantation: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

With expansion of the pool of kidney grafts, through the use of higher-risk donors, and increased attention to donor management strategies, the 1-year graft survival rate is subject to change. It is, therefore, useful to elucidate 1-year graft survival rates by dissecting the characteristics of the low-risk and high-risk kidney transplant cases. The objective of our study was to evaluate factors purported to influence the risk of 1-year graft loss in kidney transplant recipients.

DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS

We searched bibliographic databases from 2000 to 2017 and included observational studies that measured the association between donor, recipient, the transplant operation, or early postoperative complications, and 1-year death-censored graft loss.

RESULTS

We identified 35 eligible primary studies, with 20 risk factors amenable to meta-analysis. Six factors were associated with graft loss, with moderate to high degree of certainty: donor age (hazard ratio [HR], 1.11 per 10-year increase; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.04 to 1.18), extended criteria donors (HR, 1.35; 95% CI, 1.28 to 1.42), deceased donors (HR, 1.54; 95% CI, 1.32 to 1.82), number of HLA mismatches (HR, 1.08 per one mismatch increase; 95% CI, 1.07 to 1.09), recipient age (HR, 1.17 per 10-year increase; 95% CI, 1.09 to 1.25), and delayed graft function (HR, 1.89; 95% CI, 1.46 to 2.47) as risk factors for 1-year graft loss. Pooled analyses also excluded, with a high degree of certainty, any associations of cold ischemia time, recipient race, pretransplant body mass index, diabetes, and hypertension with 1-year graft loss.

CONCLUSIONS

Recipient age, donor age, standard versus extended criteria donor, living versus deceased donor, HLA mismatch, and delayed graft function all predicted 1-year graft survival. The effect of each risk factor is small.

Interim PET-results for prognosis in adults with Hodgkin lymphoma: a systematic review and meta-analysis of prognostic factor studies

BACKGROUND

Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) is one of the most common haematological malignancies in young adults and, with cure rates of 90%, has become curable for the majority of individuals. Positron emission tomography (PET) is an imaging tool used to monitor a tumour's metabolic activity, stage and progression. Interim PET during chemotherapy has been posited as a prognostic factor in individuals with HL to distinguish between those with a poor prognosis and those with a better prognosis. This distinction is important to inform decision-making on the clinical pathway of individuals with HL.

OBJECTIVES

To determine whether in previously untreated adults with HL receiving first-line therapy, interim PET scan results can distinguish between those with a poor prognosis and those with a better prognosis, and thereby predict survival outcomes in each group.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched MEDLINE, Embase, CENTRAL and conference proceedings up until April 2019. We also searched one trial registry (ClinicalTrials.gov).

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included retrospective and prospective studies evaluating interim PET scans in a minimum of 10 individuals with HL (all stages) undergoing first-line therapy. Interim PET was defined as conducted during therapy (after one, two, three or four treatment cycles). The minimum follow-up period was at least 12 months. We excluded studies if the trial design allowed treatment modification based on the interim PET scan results.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

We developed a data extraction form according to the Checklist for Critical Appraisal and Data Extraction for Systematic Reviews of Prediction Modelling Studies (CHARMS). Two teams of two review authors independently screened the studies, extracted data on overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS) and PET-associated adverse events (AEs), assessed risk of bias (per outcome) according to the Quality in Prognosis Studies (QUIPS) tool, and assessed the certainty of the evidence (GRADE). We contacted investigators to obtain missing information and data.

MAIN RESULTS

Our literature search yielded 11,277 results. In total, we included 23 studies (99 references) with 7335 newly-diagnosed individuals with classic HL (all stages).Participants in 16 studies underwent (interim) PET combined with computed tomography (PET-CT), compared to PET only in the remaining seven studies. The standard chemotherapy regimen included ABVD (16) studies, compared to BEACOPP or other regimens (seven studies). Most studies (N = 21) conducted interim PET scans after two cycles (PET2) of chemotherapy, although PET1, PET3 and PET4 were also reported in some studies. In the meta-analyses, we used PET2 data if available as we wanted to ensure homogeneity between studies. In most studies interim PET scan results were evaluated according to the Deauville 5-point scale (N = 12).Eight studies were not included in meta-analyses due to missing information and/or data; results were reported narratively. For the remaining studies, we pooled the unadjusted hazard ratio (HR). The timing of the outcome measurement was after two or three years (the median follow-up time ranged from 22 to 65 months) in the pooled studies.Eight studies explored the independent prognostic ability of interim PET by adjusting for other established prognostic factors (e.g. disease stage, B symptoms). We did not pool the results because the multivariable analyses adjusted for a different set of factors in each study.Overall survivalTwelve (out of 23) studies reported OS. Six of these were assessed as low risk of bias in all of the first four domains of QUIPS (study participation, study attrition, prognostic factor measurement and outcome measurement). The other six studies were assessed as unclear, moderate or high risk of bias in at least one of these four domains. Nine studies were assessed as high risk, and three studies as moderate risk of bias for the domain study confounding. Eight studies were assessed as low risk, and four studies as high risk of bias for the domain statistical analysis and reporting.We pooled nine studies with 1802 participants. Participants with HL who have a negative interim PET scan result probably have a large advantage in OS compared to those with a positive interim PET scan result (unadjusted HR 5.09, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.64 to 9.81, I² = 44%, moderate-certainty evidence). In absolute values, this means that 900 out of 1000 participants with a negative interim PET scan result will probably survive longer than three years compared to 585 (95% CI 356 to 757) out of 1000 participants with a positive result.Adjusted results from two studies also indicate an independent prognostic value of interim PET scan results (moderate-certainty evidence).Progression-free survival Twenty-one studies reported PFS. Eleven out of 21 were assessed as low risk of bias in the first four domains. The remaining were assessed as unclear, moderate or high risk of bias in at least one of the four domains. Eleven studies were assessed as high risk, nine studies as moderate risk and one study as low risk of bias for study confounding. Eight studies were assessed as high risk, three as moderate risk and nine as low risk of bias for statistical analysis and reporting.We pooled 14 studies with 2079 participants. Participants who have a negative interim PET scan result may have an advantage in PFS compared to those with a positive interim PET scan result, but the evidence is very uncertain (unadjusted HR 4.90, 95% CI 3.47 to 6.90, I² = 45%, very low-certainty evidence). This means that 850 out of 1000 participants with a negative interim PET scan result may be progression-free longer than three years compared to 451 (95% CI 326 to 569) out of 1000 participants with a positive result.Adjusted results (not pooled) from eight studies also indicate that there may be an independent prognostic value of interim PET scan results (low-certainty evidence).PET-associated adverse eventsNo study measured PET-associated AEs.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

This review provides moderate-certainty evidence that interim PET scan results predict OS, and very low-certainty evidence that interim PET scan results predict progression-free survival in treated individuals with HL. This evidence is primarily based on unadjusted data. More studies are needed to test the adjusted prognostic ability of interim PET against established prognostic factors.

Performance of Prognostic Risk Scores in Heart Failure Patients: Do Sex Differences Exist?

BACKGROUND

Sex differences in the performance of prognostic risk scores in heart failure (HF) patients have not previously been investigated. We examined the performance of 2 commonly used scores in predicting mortality and a composite end point consisting of ventricular assist device, heart transplantation, or mortality in women vs men with HF.

METHODS

This was a retrospective study of 1,136 (25% women) consecutive ambulatory adult HF patients with reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (≤ 40%) followed at a single institution from 2000 to 2012. Discrimination, calibration, and absolute risk reclassification of the Seattle Heart Failure Model (SHFM) and the Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure (MAGGIC) score to predict 1- and 3-year outcomes were compared between women and men.

RESULTS

At 1- and 3-year follow-ups, 116 (22% women) and 231 (21% women) patients died, respectively. Survival was equal between sexes (P = 0.41). The SHFM and the MAGGIC score showed similar discriminatory capacity in women (c-statistics 0.84, 95% CI 0.77-0.92, and 0.74, 95% CI 0.64-0.83) and men (c-statistics 0.74, 95% CI 0.69-0.79, and 0.70, 95% CI 0.64-0.75). There was no difference in the predicted and observed 1-year mortality by the scores in both sexes. Compared with the SHFM, the MAGGIC score better reclassified 10% (95% CI 7%-14%) of women and 18% (95% CI 15%-20%) of men. At 3-year follow-up, similar results were seen for discrimination, whereas both scores overestimated mortality with more marked overestimation in women. The results were reproducible for the composite end point, with improved calibration at 3-year follow-up in both scores.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings support the use of the MAGGIC score in both women and men owing to better risk classification.