Water Quality Effects of Economically Viable Land Use Change in the Mississippi River Basin under the Renewable Fuel Standard

Demand for biofuel production driven by the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS2) has coincided with increased land in corn production and increasing nitrogen (N) loss to the Gulf of Mexico. Diversifying cropland with perennial energy crops (miscanthus and switchgrass) may reduce N loss and improve water quality. However, the extent of these benefits depends on the mix of biomass feedstocks (corn stover, perennials) incentivized by the RFS2 and the extent to which energy crops displace N-intensive row crops. We developed an integrated economic-biophysical model to quantify the water quality impacts of three potential policy scenarios that provided corn ethanol at levels before the RFS2 (RFS1 baseline); 15 billion gallons of corn ethanol (corn ethanol only); or 16 billion gallons of cellulosic ethanol in addition to corn ethanol (corn + cellulosic ethanol). Our results showed that economically optimal locations for perennial energy crop production were distributed across idle cropland with lower intrinsic N loss than active cropland. We found stover removal incentivized by the RFS2 offset N loss benefits of perennial energy crops. This finding suggests that targeted incentives for N loss reduction are needed to supplement the RFS2 to induce displacement of N-intensive row crops with energy crops to reduce N losses.

Plasma cytokines interleukin-18 and C-X-C motif chemokine ligand 10 are indicative of the anti-programmed cell death protein-1 treatment response in lung cancer patients

Background

Although programmed cell death protein-1 (PD-1)/programmed death ligand-1 (PD-L1) checkpoint inhibitors have shown prominent efficacy for treatment of advanced lung cancer, the outcomes of metastatic lung cancer remain poor throughout the world. Although progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) have improved in the first- and second-line therapy settings for advanced lung cancer, the response rates to PD-1/PD-L1 inhibition range from 20% to 40%. Furthermore, patients may be at risk for immune-related adverse events (irAEs); hence, appropriate patient selection is crucial. This study aimed to identify a panel of plasma cytokines representing prognostic and predictive biomarkers of the response to anti-PD-1/PD-L1 treatment.

Methods

We prospectively studied 32 lung cancer patients who received anti-PD-1/PD-L1 antibody immunotherapy. Plasma cytokines in peripheral blood samples were evaluated and analyzed using flow cytometry at the time of diagnosis and at 2 months after the initiation of PD-1/PD-L1 inhibition.

Results

The baseline plasma concentrations of interleukin-18 (IL-18) and C-X-C motif chemokine ligand 10 (CXCL10) were correlated with the degree of tumor response. Moreover, the magnitude of plasma IL-18 and CXCL10 level fluctuations were correlated significantly with the objective tumor response to anti-PD-1/PD-L1 immunotherapy, and patients with high CXCL10 expression had significantly shorter PFS than those with low CXCL10 expression. A strong positive correlation between the fluctuation of IL-18 and interleukin-8 (IL-8) levels was detected, as was a negative correlation between the fluctuation of IL-18 and CXCL10 levels. The level of plasma C-C motif chemokine ligand 5 (CCL5) was significantly higher in patients with irAEs than in those without irAEs.

Conclusions

Plasma cytokines are related to the clinical efficacy of PD-1/PD-L1 inhibitors. IL-18 and CXCL10 are potential predictive markers for anti-PD-1/PD-L1 therapy in lung cancer patients and may play an important role in selecting patients who would benefit from PD-1/PD-L1 inhibitors.

Prediction of the VeriStrat test in first-line therapy of pemetrexed-based regimens for advanced lung adenocarcinoma patients

BACKGROUND

Although advanced non-squamous non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients have significantly better survival outcomes after pemetrexed based treatment, a subset of patients still show intrinsic resistance and progress rapidly. Therefore we aimed to use a blood-based protein signature (VeriStrat, VS) to analyze whether VS could identify the subset of patients who had poor efficacy on pemetrexed therapy.

METHODS

This study retrospectively analysed 72 advanced lung adenocarcinoma patients who received first-line pemetrexed/platinum or combined with bevacizumab treatment.

RESULTS

Plasma samples from these patients were analysed using VS and classified into the Good (VS-G) or Poor (VS-P) group. The relationship between efficacy and VS status was further investigated. Of the 72 patients included in this study, 35 (48.6%) were treated with pemetrexed plus platinum and 37 (51.4%) were treated with pemetrexed/platinum combined with bevacizumab. Among all patients, 60 (83.3%) and 12 (16.7%) patients were classified as VS-G and VS-P, respectively. VS-G patients had significantly better median progression-free survival (PFS) (Unreached vs. 4.2 months; P < 0.001) than VS-P patients. In addition, the partial response (PR) rate was higher in the VS-G group than that in the VS-P group (46.7% vs. 25.0%, P = 0.212). Subgroup analysis showed that PFS was also significantly longer in the VS-G group than that in the VS-P group regardless of whether patients received chemotherapy alone or chemotherapy plus bevacizumab.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study indicated that VS might be considered as a novel and valid method to predict the efficacy of pemetrexed-based therapy and identify a subset of advanced lung adenocarcinoma patients who had intrinsic resistance to pemetrexed based regimens. However, larger sample studies are still needed to further confirm this result.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of double low-dose budesonide and low-dose budesonide plus montelukast among pediatric patients with persistent asthma receiving Step 3 treatment in China

AIMS

For children aged 1-5 years with persistent asthma, double low-dose inhaled corticosteroids (ICS) are recommended as the preferred Step 3 treatment and low-dose ICS plus leukotriene receptor antagonists (LTRA) as an alternative. Budesonide inhalation suspension (0.5 mg daily) and montelukast (4.0 mg daily) are commonly used low-dose ICS and LTRA, respectively, among children in China. This study compared the cost-effectiveness of double low-dose budesonide vs. low-dose budesonide plus montelukast from a Chinese healthcare payer's perspective.

METHODS

A Markov model was constructed with four health states (i.e. no exacerbation, mild exacerbation, moderate-to-severe exacerbation, and death). Transition probabilities were estimated based on exacerbation rates, case-fatality of hospitalized patients due to exacerbation, and natural mortality. Treatment adherence was considered and assumed to impact both drug costs and exacerbation rates. Costs (in 2019 Chinese Yuan [¥]) included drug costs and exacerbation management costs. Cost inputs and utilities for each health state were obtained from a public database and the literature. In-depth interviews were conducted with a health economics expert to validate the model, and a clinical expert to verify inputs and assumptions related to clinical practice. Costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were estimated over a year. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed.

RESULTS

Compared with low-dose budesonide plus montelukast, double low-dose budesonide was associated with lower costs (¥1,534 vs. ¥2,327), fewer exacerbation events (0.43 vs. 1.67) and slightly better QALYs (0.98 vs. 0.97). Sensitivity analyses supported the robustness of the results and the generalizability of findings across geographic regions in China.

CONCLUSION

The cost-effectiveness analysis suggests that double low-dose budesonide is a dominant Step 3 treatment strategy compared with low-dose budesonide plus montelukast for patients aged 1-5 years with persistent asthma in China.

An overview of patients with haemophilia A in China: Epidemiology, disease severity and treatment strategies

INTRODUCTION

Haemophilia A (HA) is a rare X chromosome-linked bleeding disorder resulting in missing or defective clotting factor VIII (FVIII) and causes large disease burden.

AIM

As a member of World Federation of Hemophilia, China seeks to understand the current epidemiology, disease profile and treatment landscape of patients with HA through the Hemophilia Treatment Center Collaboration Network of China (HTCCNC).

METHODS

The HTCCNC enabled data collection on patients with HA from 166 member hospitals (2007-2019) across China. The distribution of patients across 31 divisions was summarized using a heat map. Patient demographics, disease severity and clinical and treatment information were summarized using descriptive statistics.

RESULTS

HTCCNC identified 17,779 patients with HA during 2007-2019. Patients were predominantly male (99.99%), and 28.3% had a known family history of haemophilia. Among patients with lab-measured disease severity (N = 13,116), 6,519 had severe HA (49.7%), 4,788 had moderate HA (36.5%), and 1,809 had mild HA (13.8%). Among patients with information on the delays, delays in diagnosis and in treatment initiation were observed in 1,437 (28.8%) and 1,750 (39.2%) patients, respectively. On average, those patients had an 8.4 years gap between the first bleed and HA diagnosis and a delay of 8.6 years from the first bleed to treatment initiation. Additionally, 44.33% of patients relied solely on episodic treatments, and 16.2% received any prophylaxis treatments.

CONCLUSIONS

Using data from the largest haemophilia registry in China, this study indicated that delayed diagnosis and treatment, together with low utilization of prophylaxis, are key challenges for patients with HA.

Estimating the Effect of Elagolix Treatment for Endometriosis on Postmenopausal Bone Outcomes: A Model Bridging Phase III Trials to an Older Real-World Population

Elagolix, a gonadotrophin‐releasing hormone antagonist, is used in premenopausal women with endometriosis. There is a risk of bone loss with elagolix, but the long‐term effects of BMD loss later in life cannot be directly assessed and has not been quantified. To address this gap in knowledge, this study indirectly estimated the impact of elagolix on postmenopausal fracture risk. BMD change in premenopausal women with endometriosis treated with elagolix was modeled from the phase III program data (elagolix group) and used to simulate treatment effects on (fracture risk assessment tool estimated) 10‐year risks of hip and major osteoporotic fracture in women ages 50 to 79 years from the 2005–2010 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES; N = 2303). Change in the proportion of women reaching risk‐based antiosteoporotic treatment thresholds was also estimated. For elagolix versus NHANES, median 10‐year risk of major osteoporotic fracture was 4.73% versus 4.70% in women ages 50 to 59 years, 7.03% versus 6.97% in women ages 60 to 69 years, and 10.83% versus 10.68% in women ages 70 to 79 years. Median 10‐year risk of hip fracture in these same groups was 0.19% versus 0.18% for women ages 50 to 59 years, 0.51% versus 0.49% for women 60 to 69 years, and 2.22% versus 2.14% for women 70 to 79 years. The proportion of women reaching risk‐based antiosteoporotic treatment thresholds caused by elagolix 150 mg daily for 12 months was 0.36% higher at age 50 to 59 years, 0.23% at age 60 to 69 years, and 1.79% at age 70 to 79 years. The number needed to harm was 643 for one additional hip fracture and 454 for one additional major osteoporotic fracture. Results were similar for elagolix 200 mg twice a day for 3 months. In the modeled scenarios, elagolix had minimal impact on long‐term risk of fracture and reaching risk‐based treatment thresholds. © 2020 The Authors. JBMR Plus published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research © 2020 The Authors. JBMR Plus published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

The cost-effectiveness of low-dose budesonide as a Step 2 treatment for pediatric asthma in China

Aim: To compare the cost-effectiveness of low-dose budesonide versus montelukast among patients aged 1-5 years from a Chinese patient and healthcare payer perspective. Materials & methods: A Markov model based on exacerbation states was developed. Exacerbation was defined as the need for rescue therapy (mild exacerbation) or hoscopitalization (moderate-to-severe exacerbation). Inputs including efficacy (i.e., exacerbation rates), mortality, utilities, costs and treatment adherence were obtained from literature. Results: Compared with montelukast, low-dose budesonide led to fewer exacerbation events (1.44 vs 2.15), lower costs (¥3675 vs 4130) and slightly more quality-adjusted life years (0.974 vs 0.967) over 1 year. Conclusion: These findings may improve the use of low-dose budesonide, an economically and clinically preferable treatment to montelukast in pediatric patients.

[Comparison of percutaneous pedicle screw placement under O-arm navigation with traditional percutaneous pedicle screw placement in patients with thoracolumbar fractures without neurological symptoms]

Objective: To investigate the accuracy and clinical efficacy of percutaneous pedicle screw placement under O-arm navigation and traditional fluoroscopy in patients with thoracolumbar fractures without neurological symptoms. Methods: From July 2016 to July 2018, 72 patients with thoracolumbar fractures in Peking University International Hospital without neurological symptoms were divided into two groups, group A and group B. In group A, 36 patients underwent the surgery of percutaneous pedicle screw implantation under traditional fluoroscopy and 168 pedicle screws were inserted. In group B, 36 patients underwent the surgery of percutaneous pedicle screw implantation under O-arm guided fluoroscopy and 164 pedicle screws were inserted by the same surgeon. The general condition, operation condition, radiation dose, fluoroscopy time of single screw, screw placement time and accuracy, visual analogue score (VAS) score, Oswestry dysfunction index (ODI), kyphosis Cobb's angle, anterior edge height of 1 week and 6 months after surgery were compared. The data were compared with paired t test between the two groups. Results: There was no significant differences between the two groups in general condition, intraoperative blood loss, length of hospital stay, VAS, ODI, kyphosis Cobb's angle, and anterior edge height of the injured vertebra (all P>0.05). The operation time was (99±14) min in group A and (75±10) min in group B, the average screw setting time was (15.8±2.6) min in group A and (11.8±3.3) min in group B, the fluoroscopy time of each screw was (38.0±2.0) s in group A and (28.5±2.8) s in group B, the radiation dose of each surgery was (563±163) cGy/cm(2) in group A and (378±70) cGy/cm(2) in group B; the above-mentioned data of group A were all superior to those in group B and the differences between the two groups were all statistically significant (t=8.48, 5.73, 16.30, 6.25, all P<0.05). Rampersaud grading in group A was better than group B, and the differences between the two groups was statistically significant(χ(2)=12.2, P<0.05). Conclusion: The O-arm navigation system could not only provide high-definition navigation images and achieve high-precision navigation operations, which is more accurate than traditional pedicle screws placement, but also contribute to the reconstruction of spinal stability and reduce radiation dose, pedicle screws placement and operating time.

The inhibitory effects of class I histone deacetylases on hippocampal neuroinflammatory regulation in aging mice with postoperative cognitive dysfunction

OBJECTIVE

Neuroinflammation in the hippocampus has been determined to contribute to postoperative cognitive dysfunction (POCD) occurrence in elderly individuals. Histone deacetylases (HDACs) have been identified as important regulators of inflammation. However, the roles of different types of HDACs in POCD have never been fully explored.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

POCD mouse models were established using isoflurane and validated by the Morris water maze test. The mice were pretreated with UF010 [a Class I HDAC inhibitor (HDACi)], MC1568 (a Class II HDACi) and SAHA (a Class I and II HDACi) before POCD establishment. HDAC protein levels and the activity of the NF-κB/p65, JAK/STAT and TLR/MyD88 signaling pathways in the hippocampus were investigated by Western blot (WB). The enrichment of HDACs on the promoters of genes was detected using ChIP-qPCR.

RESULTS

Class I HDACs, including HDAC2 and HDAC8, and Class II HDACs, including HDAC4, HDAC7 and HDAC10, were all upregulated in the POCD group compared to the control group. Furthermore, compared to the MC1568 pretreatment group and the control group, the groups pretreated with UF010 and SAHA exhibited amelioration of the effects of anesthesia/surgery induced POCD and compromised inflammatory reactions in the hippocampus. Likewise, the NF-κB/p65, JAK/STAT and TLR/MyD88 signaling pathways were inactivated upon pretreatment with UF010 and SAHA compared to MC1568. Finally, the transcription of the genes negatively regulating these three pathways declined, and the enrichment of HDAC1, HDAC2 and HDAC8 was significantly elevated in the context of POCD.

CONCLUSIONS

Class I HDACs, especially HDAC1, HDAC2 and HDAC8, play crucial roles in enhancing neuroinflammation in the hippocampus and causing POCD. Class I HDACs are potential therapeutic targets for POCD prevention and treatment via neuroinflammation inhibition.

Shifts in bird ranges and conservation priorities in China under climate change

Climate change is one of the most significant causes of species range shift and extinction. Based on a citizen science dataset of birds in China, the Bird Report, we developed a high-resolution map of bird species richness in China, and simulated the range shifts and area changes of the 1,042 birds through the year 2070 using three different General Circulation Models and two different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs, including RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5). It was found that 241-244 (under different scenarios) bird species would lose a portion of their distribution ranges; and that most species in China would move to either higher elevations or northward. The other 798-801 species would experience range expansion. Compared to resident species (n = 516), migratory birds (n = 526) may undergo more limited range expansion but a longer range shift distance on average. The species diversity of birds will considerably increase in areas higher than 1,500 m in elevation under both RCPs. Conservation priorities with higher species richness were also identified using the Zonation model. The existing national nature reserves are not sufficient for protecting important bird habitats, especially after range shifts. Significant gaps in protected areas were observed in the northern Xinjiang, southern Tibet, Greater Khingan, Sanjiang Plain, Songnen Plain, northern Bohai Rim, and southeastern coastline areas. Many of these areas are characterized by high human populations and intensive development, and establishing sizable protected areas has become difficult. Inclusive conservation mechanisms that include restoring habitats in urban parks and sharing habitats in farmland areas, may be a feasible solution.

Machine learning-based FDG PET-CT radiomics for outcome prediction in larynx and hypopharynx squamous cell carcinoma

AIM

To determine whether machine learning-based radiomic feature analysis of baseline integrated 2-[¹⁸F]-fluoro-2-deoxy-d-glucose (FDG) positron-emission tomography (PET) computed tomography (CT) predicts disease progression in patients with locally advanced larynx and hypopharynx squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) receiving (chemo)radiotherapy.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Patients with larynx and hypopharynx SCC treated with definitive (chemo)radiotherapy at a specialist cancer centre undergoing pre-treatment PET-CT between 2008 and 2017 were included. Tumour segmentation and radiomic analysis was performed using LIFEx software (University of Paris-Saclay, France). Data were assigned into training (80%) and validation (20%) cohorts adhering to TRIPOD guidelines. A random forest classifier was created for four predictive models using features determined by recursive feature elimination: (A) PET, (B) CT, (C) clinical, and (D) combined PET-CT parameters. Model performance was assessed using area under the curve (AUC) receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis.

RESULTS

Seventy-two patients (40 hypopharynx 32 larynx tumours) were included, mean age 61 (range 41-77) years, 50 (69%) were men. Forty-five (62.5%) had chemoradiotherapy, 27 (37.5%) had radiotherapy alone. Median follow-up 26 months (range 12-105 months). Twenty-seven (37.5%) patients progressed within 12 months. ROC AUC for models A, B, C, and D were 0.91, 0.94, 0.88, and 0.93 in training and 0.82, 0.72, 0.70, and 0.94 in validation cohorts. Parameters in model D were metabolic tumour volume (MTV), maximum CT value, minimum standardized uptake value (SUVmin), grey-level zone length matrix (GLZLM) small-zone low grey-level emphasis (SZLGE) and histogram kurtosis.

CONCLUSION

FDG PET-CT derived radiomic features are potential predictors of early disease progression in patients with locally advanced larynx and hypopharynx SCC.

[Therapeutic efficacy analysis of immunotherapy in small cell lung cancer]

Objective: Recently, increasing number of lung cancer patients benefit from immune-checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs). However, the data of Chinese small cell lung cancer (SCLC) patients is limited. This study aims to analyze the response and survival data of ICIs treatment in SCLC and to explore the predictive biomarkers. Methods: Forty-seven SCLC patients who received ICIs treatment from Peking University Cancer Hospital from May 2017 to September 2019 was recruited. Clinical characteristics including sex, age, smoking status, ICIs strategy, PD-L1 expression and therapeutic efficacy were collected to explore the clinical predictive biomarkers for SCLC ICIs treatment. Results: Among the 47 patients, 18 (38.3%) cases were partial repose (PR), 11 (23.4%) were stable disease (SD), 18 (38.3%) were progressive disease (PD), and the objective response rate (ORR) was 38.3%, disease control rate (DCR) was 61.7%, the median progression-free survival (PFS) was 5.3 months. ICIs monotherapy accounts for 27.7%, the ORR was 15.4%, DCR was 53.8%, median PFS was 2.7 months. Combined therapy accounts for 72.3%, the ORR was 47.1%, DCR was 64.7%, median PFS was 5.4 months. Fourteen (29.8%) patients received ICIs as the first line treatment, their ORR was 85.7%, DCR was 100%, median PFS was 9.1 month. The ORR was not related to the age, sex, body mass index (BMI), smoking status and programmed death-ligand 1 (PD-L1) expression (P>0.05). The ORRs were higher in patients underwent PD-L1 monotherapy (P=0.001), combined therapy (P=0.002) and received ICIs as the first line treatment (P<0.001). Log-rank analysis indicated that the PFS of female patients were 12.0 months, significantly longer than 4.4 months of male patients in ICIs treatment (P=0.038). Patients who received PD-L1 monotherapy, combined treatment, or ICIs as the first line treatment had longer PFS than their counterparts, though no statistical significant was observed (P>0.05). Cox multivariate analysis showed that, the gender was not an independent predictor for PFS in ICIs treatment (HR=3.777, 95%CI=0.974~30.891, P=0.054). Conclusions: Immunotherapy is an effective treatment strategy for SCLC. Patients who receive combined ICIs treatment, first line ICIs treatment and PD-L1 treatment may get greater benefits. PD-L1 expression cannot predict the response and PFS in SCLC ICIs treatment.

Huai hua san alleviates dextran sulphate sodium-induced colitis and modulates colonic microbiota

ETHNOPHARMACOLOGICAL RELEVANCE

Huai hua san (HHS) is a traditional Chinese herbal formula which is firstly documented in the ancient Chinese classic medical work "Pu Ji Ben Shi Fang" in 1132 AD. It has been widely used in the treatment of lower gastrointestinal disorders such as acute colitis and hematochezia for more than 800 years. However, scientific evidence of the efficacy and the exact mechanism of HHS against colitis has not yet been reported.

AIM OF THE STUDY

The aim of this study is to investigate the potential effects of HHS in the alleviation of dextran sulphate sodium (DSS)-induced colitis and the alteration of colonic microbiota composition and structure.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

HHS solution was orally administrated to 5% DSS-challenged rats once a day for 8 days. Colitis clinical symptoms of colitis were collected, together with colonic mucosal damage assessed at histomorphometric and ultrastructural levels. The protein levels of inflammatory mediators TNF-α and CRP were detected by ELISA. The colonic vascular permeability was evaluated by Evans blue extravasation. Meanwhile, The effects of the HHS therapy on the colonic microbiota were evaluated by analyzing the V3 and V4 regions of the 16S rRNA gene by Illumina sequencing and multivariate statistical methods.

RESULTS

Daily oral administration of HHS markedly alleviated DSS-induced colitis, as evidenced by decreased colitis disease activity index (DAI) score, reduced colonic inflammation and normalization of colonic vascular hyperpermeability. Moreover, the 16S rRNA gene sequencing analysis demonstrated that HHS treatment during colitis prevented the colitis-associated alteration of colonic microbial community at operational taxonomic unit level, together with the DSS-induced colonic microbiota dysbiosis at taxonomic levels. In addition, HHS therapy reduced colitis-associated high increased ratio of Bacteroidetes to Firmicutes to a normal level.

CONCLUSION

HHS could attenuate ulcerative colitis and ameliorate gut microbial dysbiosis.

Model of Short- and Long-Term Outcomes of Emicizumab Prophylaxis Treatment for Persons with Hemophilia A

BACKGROUND

Hemophilia A (HA) can result in bleeding events because of low or absent clotting factor VIII (FVIII). Prophylactic treatment for severe HA includes replacement FVIII infusions and emicizumab, a bispecific factor IXa- and factor X-directed antibody.

OBJECTIVE

To develop an economic model to predict the short- and long-term clinical and economic outcomes of prophylaxis with emicizumab versus short-acting recombinant FVIII among persons with HA in the United States.

METHODS

A Markov model was developed to compare clinical outcomes and costs of emicizumab versus FVIII prophylaxis among persons with severe HA from U.S. payer and societal perspectives. Patients started prophylaxis at age 1 year in the base case. Mutually exclusive health states considered were "no arthropathy," "arthropathy," "surgery," and "death." Serious adverse events, breakthrough bleeds, and inhibitor development were simulated throughout the modeled time horizon. In addition to the prophylaxis drug costs, patients could incur other direct costs related to breakthrough bleeds treatment, serious adverse events, development of inhibitors, arthropathy, and orthopedic surgery. Indirect costs associated with productivity loss (i.e., missed work or disabilities) were applied for adults. Model inputs were obtained from the HAVEN 3 trial, published literature, and expert opinion. The model used a lifetime horizon, and results for 1 year and 5 years were also reported. Deterministic sensitivity analyses and scenario analyses were conducted to assess robustness of the model.

RESULTS

Over a lifetime horizon, the cumulative number of all treated bleeds and joint bleeds avoided on emicizumab versus FVIII prophylaxis were 278.2 and 151.7, respectively. Correspondingly, arthropathy (mean age at onset: 12.9 vs. 5.4 years) and FVIII inhibitor development (mean age at development: 13.9 vs. 1.1 years) were delayed. Total direct and indirect costs were lower for emicizumab versus FVIII prophylaxis for all modeled time horizons ($97,159 vs. $331,610 at 1 year; $603,146 vs. $1,459,496 at 5 years; and $15,238,072 vs. $22,820,281 over a lifetime horizon). The sensitivity analyses indicated that clinical outcomes were sensitive to efficacy inputs, while economic outcomes were driven by the discount rate, dosing schedules, and treatments after inhibitor development. Results for moderate to severe patients were consistent with findings in the severe HA population.

CONCLUSIONS

The model suggests that emicizumab prophylaxis confers additional clinical benefits, resulting in a lower number of bleeding events and delayed onset of arthropathy and inhibitor development across all time assessment horizons. Compared with short-acting recombinant FVIII, emicizumab prophylaxis leads to superior patient outcomes and cost savings from U.S. payer and societal perspectives.

DISCLOSURES

Funding for this study was provided by Genentech. Raimundo and Patel are employees of Genentech and own stock or stock options. Zhou, Han, Ji, Fang, Zhong, and Betts are employees of Analysis Group, which received consultancy fees from Genentech for conducting this study. Mahajerin received consultancy fees from Genentech for work on this study. Portions of this research were presented as a poster at the 2018 American Society of Hematology Conference; December 1-4, 2018; San Diego, CA.

Ultrasonic osteotome versus high-speed burr in cervical anterior vertebral subtotal resection: A retrospective study of 81 cases

AIM

This study aimed to investigate the safety and effectiveness of ultrasonic osteotome in cervical anterior vertebral subtotal resection.

METHODS

Retrospective clinical data were collated for 81 patients with cervical spondylotic myelopathy who required cervical anterior vertebral subtotal resection.

RESULTS

Group A (n=40) was treated with an ultrasonic osteotome and group B (n=41) with a high-speed burr. Vertebrectomy time, intraoperative blood loss, surgical complications, Japanese Orthopedic Association (JOA) scores and JOA score improvement were compared. Group A showed significantly shorter vertebrectomy time and significantly less intraoperative blood loss (P<0.05). In group A, dysphagia occurred in one patient, and superior laryngeal nerve injury in one. Urinary tract infection occurred in one patient in group B. JOA score in both groups significantly increased 3 days after surgery (P<0.05), and at last follow-up compared with 3 days after surgery (P<0.05).

CONCLUSION

Ultrasonic osteotome was a safe and effective tool for subtotal anterior cervical vertebral resection.

Nomogram model for predicting cause-specific mortality in patients with stage I small-cell lung cancer: a competing risk analysis

Background

The five-year cumulative incidence rate in patients diagnosed with stage I small-cell lung cancer (SCLC) who were instructed to undergo surgery was from 40 to 60%.The death competition influence the accuracy of the classical survival analyses. The aim of the study is to investigate the mortality of stage I small-cell lung cancer (SCLC) patients in the presence of competing risks according to a proportional hazards model, and to establish a competing risk nomogram to predict probabilities of both cause-specific death and death resulting from other causes.

Methods

The study subjects were patients diagnosed with stage I SCLC according to ICD-O-3. First, the cumulative incidence functions (CIFs) of cause-specific death, as well as of death resulting from other causes, were calculated. Then, a proportional hazards model for the sub-distribution of competing risks and a monogram were constructed to evaluate the probability of mortality in stage I SCLC patients.

Results

1811 patients were included in this study. The five-year probabilities of death due to specific causes and other causes were 61.5 and 13.6%, respectively. Tumor size, extent of tumor, surgery, and radiotherapy were identified as the predictors of death resulting from specific causes in stage I SCLC. The results showed that surgery could effectively reduce the cancer-specific death, and the one-year cumulative incidence dropped from 34.5 to 11.2%. Like surgery, chemotherapy and radiotherapy improved the one-year survival rate.

Conclusions

We constructed a predictive model for stage I SCLC using the data from the SEER database. The proportional sub-distribution models of competing risks revealed the predictors of death resulting from both specific causes and other causes. The competing risk nomogram that we built to predict the prognosis showed good reliability and could provide beneficial and individualized predictive information for stage I SCLC patients.

Prevalence and economic burden of hyperkalemia in the United States Medicare population

Objective: To estimate the prevalence and economic burden of hyperkalemia in the United States (US) Medicare population.Methods: Patients were selected from a 5% random sample of Medicare beneficiaries (01 January 2010-31 December 2014) to estimate the prevalence and economic burden of hyperkalemia. The prevalence for each calendar year was calculated as the number of patients with hyperkalemia divided by the total number of eligible patients per year. To estimate the economic burden of hyperkalemia, patients with hyperkalemia (cases) were matched 1:1 to patients without hyperkalemia (controls) on age group, chronic kidney disease [CKD] stage, dialysis treatment, and heart failure. The incremental 30-day and 1-year resource utilization and costs (2016 USD) associated with hyperkalemia were estimated.Results: The estimated prevalence of hyperkalemia was 2.6-2.7% in the overall population and 8.9-9.3% among patients with CKD and/or heart failure. Patients with hyperkalemia had higher 1-year rates of inpatient admissions (1.28 vs. 0.44), outpatient visits (30.48 vs. 23.88), emergency department visits (2.01 vs. 1.17), and skilled nursing facility admissions (0.36 vs. 0.11) than the matched controls (all p < .001). Patients with hyperkalemia incurred on average $7208 higher 30-day costs ($8894 vs. $1685) and $19,348 higher 1-year costs ($34,362 vs. $15,013) than controls (both p < .001). Among patients with CKD and/or heart failure, the 30-day and 1-year total cost differences between cohorts were $7726 ($9906 vs. $2180) and $21,577 ($41,416 vs. $19,839), respectively (both p < .001).Conclusions: Hyperkalemia had an estimated prevalence of 2.6-2.7% in the Medicare population and was associated with markedly high healthcare costs.

Imaging post liver transplantation part I: vascular complications

Liver transplantation continues to rise in frequency, with over 1,000 procedures performed in the UK in 2018. Complications are increasingly uncommon but when they occur, early recognition and intervention is vital to save grafts. Imaging after the perioperative period is often performed at patients' local hospitals meaning that all radiologists and sonographers need to have an understanding of how to assess a transplant liver. Part I of this series will focus on vascular complications, including the normal postoperative vascular anatomy following liver transplantation, normal post-transplantation vascular imaging findings and abnormal findings that may prompt further investigation. Vascular complications following liver transplantation will be illustrated using a collection of cases.

A nomogram model to predict death rate among non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients with surgery in surveillance, epidemiology, and end results (SEER) database

Background

This study aimed to establish a novel nomogram prognostic model to predict death probability for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients who received surgery..

Methods

We collected data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database of the National Cancer Institute in the United States. A nomogram prognostic model was constructed to predict mortality of NSCLC patients who received surgery.

Results

A total of 44,880 NSCLC patients who received surgery from 2004 to 2014 were included in this study. Gender, ethnicity, tumor anatomic sites, histologic subtype, tumor differentiation, clinical stage, tumor size, tumor extent, lymph node stage, examined lymph node, positive lymph node, type of surgery showed significant associations with lung cancer related death rate (P < 0.001). Patients who received chemotherapy and radiotherapy had significant higher lung cancer related death rate but were associated with significant lower non-cancer related mortality (P<0.001). A nomogram model was established based on multivariate models of training data set. In the validation cohort, the unadjusted C-index was 0.73 (95% CI, 0.72–0.74), 0.71 (95% CI, 0.66–0.75) and 0.69 (95% CI, 0.68–0.70) for lung cancer related death, other cancer related death and non-cancer related death.

Conclusions

A prognostic nomogram model was constructed to give information about the risk of death for NSCLC patients who received surgery.

Clinical Characteristics and Outcomes of Patients With Primary Mediastinal Germ Cell Tumors: A Single-Center Experience

Purpose: Primary mediastinal germ cell tumors (PMGCTs) are rare. The natural history and optimal treatment strategies still need to be defined. The aim of the study was to summarize the clinical characteristics, treatment outcomes, and prognostic factors of PMGCTs.

Methods: Twenty-four patients with PMGCTs who were treated from December 2008 to January 2019 were evaluated retrospectively. The Kaplan–Meier method and Cox regression analysis were used to evaluate factors associated with prognosis.

Results: The study population consisted of 23 male patients and 1 female patient. Five patients were diagnosed with seminoma and 19 patients were diagnosed with nonseminoma. The median follow-up time for all patients was 15.8 (3.9–114.5) months. The 5-year overall survival (OS) and progression free survival (PFS) rates for all patients were 65.2 and 44.3%. For nonseminoma and seminoma, the 5-year OS rates were 54.1 and 100% (P = 0.093), respectively, and the 5-year PFS rates were 28.7 and 100%, respectively (P = 0.044). In patients with nonseminoma, first-line radiotherapy indicated superior OS and PFS (P = 0.037 and 0.027, respectively). The median survival time after recurrence was 4.3 months and the 1-year survival rate after recurrence was 23.4%.

Conclusion: These results indicated that in PMGCTs, the prognosis of seminoma is superior to that of nonseminoma. Radiotherapy may be an essential treatment in patients with nonseminoma. Patients with relapse have unfavorable prognosis.

The outcomes of one-stage treatment for multiple knee ligament injuries combined with extensor apparatus rupture

Background

Multiple knee ligament injuries combined with extensor apparatus rupture are serious and complex knee injuries that are rare in clinical practice. The management is extremely challenging and controversial.

The aim of this study is to describe a patient collective with multiple knee ligament injuries combined with extensor apparatus injuries in detail and to report the mid-term outcomes of a one-stage surgical treatment regarding subjective outcome scores, complications, knee instability, and ROM.

Methods

Eleven of 425 patients with multiple knee ligament injuries combined with extensor apparatus injuries admitted to our hospital were reviewed from July 2008 to May 2017. All patients underwent one-stage repair and reconstruction of multiple knee ligaments and extensor apparatus. The Lysholm knee score and the International Knee Documentation Committee (IKDC) score were adopted to evaluate the surgical effect preoperatively and at a minimum of 2 years’ follow-up. Clinical data, including range of motion and knee stability, were also recorded at the final follow-up.

Results

Ten patients were followed up with a mean time of 40 (range, 24–60) months. At the last follow-up, 8 patients had joint flexion range of motion greater than or equal to120 degrees, 2 patients had joint flexion range of motion of 100–120 degrees, and 1 patient had active knee extension limitation of 5 degrees. Stress radiographs showed that the mean differences in posterior displacement were reduced from 10.8 ± 3.0 mm preoperatively to 2.0 ± 2.5 mm at the last follow-up. There were significant improvements in stress radiographs from pre- to postoperative states for all patients with multiple knee ligament injuries. The Lysholm score ranged from 85 to 96, with a mean of 92.1 (compared with 33 before surgery, P < 0.05). The final IKDC scores were A in 2 patients (20%), B in 7 (70%), and C in 1 (10%). Nine of the 10 patients (90%) returned to their former activity level.

Conclusion

Multiple knee ligament injuries combined with extensor apparatus rupture are rare. Single-stage management of the repair and reconstruction of multiple knee ligaments and extensor apparatus with proper rehabilitation is an effective and reliable procedure to restore knee stability and function.

Level of evidence

Level IV, therapeutic case series.