Chronic kidney disease: towards a risk-based approach

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) affects 8-16% of adults worldwide and is associated with multiple adverse outcomes. It includes a heterogeneous group of conditions with widely varied associated risks; risk stratification is therefore vital for clinical management. Use of the CKD Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) equation to estimate glomerular filtration rate (GFR) instead of the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) equation will reduce, though not eliminate, over-diagnosis of CKD. Cystatin C is recommended as an alternative measure of GFR but is not yet widely used. A new classification system for CKD, which includes GFR and albuminuria, has been endorsed by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence to aid risk stratification and a recently validated formula, requiring only age, gender, eGFR and albuminuria, is useful to predict risk of end-stage kidney disease (ESKD). A risk-based approach will facilitate appropriate treatment for people at high risk of developing ESKD while sparing the majority, who are at low risk, from unnecessary intervention.

Intradialytic Cardiac Magnetic Resonance Imaging to Assess Cardiovascular Responses in a Short-Term Trial of Hemodiafiltration and Hemodialysis

Hemodynamic stress during hemodialysis (HD) results in recurrent segmental ischemic injury (myocardial stunning) that drives cumulative cardiac damage. We performed a fully comprehensive study of the cardiovascular effect of dialysis sessions using intradialytic cardiac magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) to examine the comparative acute effects of standard HD versus hemodiafiltration (HDF) in stable patients. We randomly allocated 12 patients on HD (ages 32-72 years old) to either HD or HDF. Patients were stabilized on a modality for 2 weeks before undergoing serial cardiac MRI assessment during dialysis. Patients then crossed over to the other modality and were rescanned after 2 weeks. Cardiac MRI measurements included cardiac index, stroke volume index, global and regional contractile function (myocardial strain), coronary artery flow, and myocardial perfusion. Patients had mean±SEM ultrafiltration rates of 3.8±2.9 ml/kg per hour during HD and 4.4±2.5 ml/kg per hour during HDF (P=0.29), and both modalities provided a similar degree of cooling. All measures of systolic contractile function fell during HD and HDF, with partial recovery after dialysis. All patients experienced some degree of segmental left ventricular dysfunction, with severity proportional to ultrafiltration rate and BP reduction. Myocardial perfusion decreased significantly during HD and HDF. Treatment modality did not influence any of the cardiovascular responses to dialysis. In conclusion, in this randomized, crossover study, there was no significant difference in the cardiovascular response to HDF or HD with cooled dialysate as assessed with intradialytic MRI.

Regional Variation in Acute Kidney Injury Requiring Dialysis in the English National Health Service from 2000 to 2015 - A National Epidemiological Study

Background

The absence of effective interventions in presence of increasing national incidence and case-fatality in acute kidney injury requiring dialysis (AKI-D) warrants a study of regional variation to explore any potential for improvement. We therefore studied regional variation in the epidemiology of AKI-D in English National Health Service over a period of 15 years.

Method

We analysed Hospital Episode Statistics data for all patients with a diagnosis of AKI-D, using ICD-10-CM codes, in English regions between 2000 and 2015 to study temporal changes in regional incidence and case-fatality.

Results

Of 203,758,879 completed discharges between 1^st April 2000 and 31^st March 2015, we identified 54,252 patients who had AKI-D in the nine regions of England. The population incidence of AKI-D increased variably in all regions over 15 years; however, the regional variation decreased from 3·3-fold to 1·3-fold (p<0·01). In a multivariable adjusted model, using London as the reference, in the period of 2000–2005, the North East (odd ratio (OR) 1·38; 95%CI 1·01, 1·90), East Midlands (OR 1·38; 95%CI 1·01, 1·90) and West Midlands (OR 1·38; 95%CI 1·01, 1·90) had higher odds for death, while East of England had lower odds for death (OR 0·66; 95% CI 0·49, 0·90). The North East had higher OR in all three five-year periods as compared to the other eight regions. Adjusted case-fatality showed significant variability with temporary improvement in some regions but overall there was no significant improvement in any region over 15 years.

Conclusions

We observed considerable regional variation in the epidemiology of AKI-D that was not entirely attributable to variations in demographic or other identifiable clinical factors. These observations make a compelling case for further research to elucidate the reasons and identify interventions to reduce the incidence and case-fatality in all regions.

Chronic Kidney Disease in Primary Care: Outcomes after Five Years in a Prospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is commonly managed in primary care, but most guidelines have a secondary care perspective emphasizing the risk of end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) and need for renal replacement therapy. In this prospective cohort study, we sought to study in detail the natural history of CKD in primary care to better inform the appropriate emphasis for future guidance.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

In this study, 1,741 people with CKD stage 3 were individually recruited from 32 primary care practices in Derbyshire, United Kingdom. Study visits were undertaken at baseline, year 1, and year 5. Binomial logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards models were used to model progression, CKD remission, and all-cause mortality. We used Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) criteria to define CKD progression and defined CKD remission as the absence of diagnostic criteria (estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] >60 ml/min/1.73 m2 and urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio [uACR] <3 mg/mmol) at any study visit. Participants were predominantly elderly (mean ± standard deviation (SD) age 72.9 ± 9.0 y), with relatively mild reduction in GFR (mean ± SD eGFR 53.5 ± 11.8 mL/min/1,73 m2) and a low prevalence of albuminuria (16.9%). After 5 y, 247 participants (14.2%) had died, most of cardiovascular causes. Only 4 (0.2%) developed ESKD, but 308 (17.7%) evidenced CKD progression by KDIGO criteria. Stable CKD was observed in 593 participants (34.1%), and 336 (19.3%) met the criteria for remission. Remission at baseline and year 1 was associated with a high likelihood of remission at year 5 (odds ratio [OR] = 23.6, 95% CI 16.5-33.9 relative to participants with no remission at baseline and year 1 study visits). Multivariable analyses confirmed eGFR and albuminuria as key risk factors for predicting adverse as well as positive outcomes. Limitations of this study include reliance on GFR estimated using the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease study (MDRD) equation for recruitment (but not subsequent analysis) and a study population that was predominantly elderly and white, implying that the results may not be directly applicable to younger populations of more diverse ethnicity.

CONCLUSIONS

Management of CKD in primary care should focus principally on identifying the minority of people at high risk of adverse outcomes, to allow intervention to slow CKD progression and reduce cardiovascular events. Efforts should also be made to identify and reassure the majority who are at low risk of progression to ESKD. Consideration should be given to adopting an age-calibrated definition of CKD to avoid labelling a large group of people with age-related decline in GFR and low associated risk as having CKD.

The epidemiology of hospitalised acute kidney injury not requiring dialysis in England from 1998 to 2013: retrospective analysis of hospital episode statistics

AIMS

Epidemiology studies of acute kidney injury (AKI) have focused on cases requiring dialysis but those not requiring dialysis represent the majority. To address this gap, we interrogated hospital episode statistics (HES) to investigate population trends in temporal epidemiology of AKI not requiring dialysis between 1998 and 2013.

METHODOLOGY

In this retrospective observational study of HES data covering the entire English National Health Service, we identified 1,136,167 AKI events, not requiring dialysis, diagnosed between 1998 and 2013. We explored the effect of age, gender, ethnicity, Charlson's comorbidity score (CCS), method of admission, diagnosis period and AKI in diagnosis codes on temporal changes in the incidence and case-fatality of AKI with specific examination of its predictors.

RESULT

The incidence of AKI increased from 15,463 cases (317 pmp) in 1998-1999 to 213,700 cases (3995 pmp) in 2012-2013. There was increase in proportion of people over 75 years from 51.1% in 1998-1999 to 63.4% in 2012-2013. Overall unadjusted case-fatality decreased from 42.3% in 1998-2003 to 27.1% in 2008-2013, p < 0.001. Compared with 1998-2003, the multivariable adjusted odds ratio for death was 0.64 in 2003-2008 (95% CI 0.63-0.65) and 0.35 in 2008-2013 (95% CI 0.34-0.35). Odds for death were higher for patients over 85 years (2.93; 95% CI 2.89-2.97), CCS of more than five (2.75; 95% CI 2.71-2.79), emergency admissions (2.14; 95% CI 2.09-2.18) and AKI in the secondary diagnosis code (1.35; 95% CI 1.33-1.36) and AKI in other diagnoses codes (2.17; 95% CI 2.15-2.20).

CONCLUSIONS

In England, the incidence of AKI not requiring dialysis has increased and case-fatality has decreased over last 15 years. Efforts to reduce the incidence of AKI and improve survival should focus on elderly people, emergency admissions and those with multi-morbidity.

The burden of comorbidity in people with chronic kidney disease stage 3: a cohort study

BACKGROUND

Multimorbidity is a growing concern for healthcare systems, with many countries experiencing demographic transition to older population profiles. Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is common but often considered in isolation. The extent and prognostic significance of its comorbidities is not well understood. This study aimed to assess the extent and prognostic significance of 11 comorbidities in people with CKD stage 3.

METHODS

A prospective cohort of 1741 people with CKD stage 3 was recruited from primary care between August 2008 and March 2010. Participants underwent medical history, clinical assessment, blood and urine sampling. Comorbidity was defined by self-reported doctor-diagnosed condition, disease-specific medication or blood results (hemoglobin), and treatment burden as number of ongoing medications. Logistic regression was used to identify associations with greater treatment burden (taking >5 medications) and greater multimorbidity (3 or more comorbidities). Kaplan Meier plots and multivariate Cox proportional hazards models were used to investigate associations between multimorbidity and all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

One thousand seven hundred forty-one people were recruited, mean age 72.9 +/-9 years. Mean baseline eGFR was 52 ml/min/1.73 m(2). Only 78/1741 (4 %) had no comorbidities, 453/1741 (26 %) had one, 508/1741 (29 %) had two and 702/1741 (40 %) had >2. Hypertension was common (88 %), 30 % had 'painful condition', 24 % anemia, 23 %, ischaemic heart disease, 17 % diabetes and 12 % thyroid disorders. Median medication use was 5 medications (interquartile range 3-8) and increased with degree of comorbidity. Greater treatment burden and multimorbidity were independently associated with age, smoking, increasing body mass index and decreasing eGFR. Treatment burden was also independently associated with lower education status. After median 3.6 years follow-up, 175/1741 (10 %) died. Greater multimorbidity was independently associated with mortality (hazard ratio 2.81 (95 % confidence intervals 1.72-4.58), p < 0.001) for 3 or more comorbidities vs 0 or 1).

CONCLUSIONS

Isolated CKD was rare and multimorbidity the norm in this cohort of people with moderate CKD. Increasing multimorbidity was associated with greater medication burden and poorer survival. CKD management should include consideration of comorbidities.

Long Term Outcomes after Acute Kidney Injury: Lessons from the ARID Study

The high incidence and poor short-term outcomes of acute kidney injury (AKI) have focused attention on this global healthcare issue. Concurrently, the long-term effects of AKI are increasingly appreciated, namely, increased risk of subsequent chronic kidney disease, end stage kidney disease requiring renal replacement therapies and a higher rate of cardiovascular events. Whilst there is little doubt about the strength of these associations, knowledge gaps remain. To address some of these, the AKI Risk In Derby study commenced in 2013. This is a prospective case-control study investigating the long-term effects of AKI in a general hospitalized population (including those with less severe AKI). This review will summarize the background and rationale of this study, its design and methodology, as well as the 1-year outcome results from a preceding pilot study.

The Association between Polyclonal Combined Serum Free Light Chain Concentration and Mortality in Individuals with Early Chronic Kidney Disease

A major component of increased mortality risk in people with chronic kidney disease (CKD) is associated with non-traditional cardiovascular risk factors including markers of inflammation. We studied whether a novel marker of systemic inflammation, elevated serum combined polyclonal immunoglobulin free light chains (cFLC), was an independent risk factor for increased all-cause mortality in people with CKD stage 3. In a prospective community based cohort study, 1695 participants with stage 3 CKD and no cases of monoclonal gammopathy had cFLC concentrations measured. cFLC levels were determined using the summation of Freelite kappa and lambda assays. All other bioclinical variables were collected at the time of sample collection. Kaplan-Meier plots and Cox proportional hazards analysis was used to assess the relationship between high cFLC levels (>43.3 mg/L) and mortality. There were 167 deaths (10%) after a median of 1375 days. cFLC levels at recruitment were higher in participants who died compared with those who were alive at the end of the study; median: 46.5 mg/L (IQR: 36.1-65.4 mg/L) and 35.4 mg/L (28.1-46.6 mg/L) respectively, P <0.001. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis demonstrated participants with cFLC >43.3 mg/L levels had an increased risk of mortality compared to people with normal cFLC levels (P <0.001). Elevated cFLC levels were independently associated with worse survival (Hazard ratio: 1.50; 95% confidence interval: 1.04-2.16; P=0.03). Other independent risk factors for worse survival were: older age, male gender, previous cardiovascular event, lower eGFR and higher high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP). To conclude, high cFLC levels predict increased mortality in people with stage 3 CKD, independent of established risk factors and other markers of inflammation.

Exploration of chronic kidney disease prevalence estimates using new measures of kidney function in the health survey for England

BACKGROUND

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) diagnosis relies on glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) estimation, traditionally using the creatinine-based Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) equation. The Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKDEPI) equation performs better in estimating eGFR and predicting mortality and CKD progression risk. Cystatin C is an alternative glomerular filtration marker less influenced by muscle mass. CKD risk stratification is improved by combining creatinine eGFR with cystatin C and urinary albumin to creatinine ratio (uACR). We aimed to identify the impact of introducing CKDEPI and cystatin C on the estimated prevalence and risk stratification of CKD in England and to describe prevalence and associations of cystatin C.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Cross sectional study of 5799 people in the nationally representative 2009 and 2010 Health Surveys for England.

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES

prevalence of MDRD, CKDEPI and cystatin C-defined eGFR<60 ml/min/1.73 m(2); prevalence of CKD biomarker combinations (creatinine, cystatin C, uACR). Using CKDEPI instead of MDRD reduced the prevalence of eGFR<60 ml/min/1.73 m(2) from 6.0% (95% CI 5.4-6.6%) to 5.2% (4.7-5.8%) equivalent to around 340,000 fewer individuals in England. Those reclassified as not having CKD evidenced a lower risk profile. Prevalence of cystatin C eGFR<60 ml/min/1.73 m(2) was 7.7% and independently associated with age, lack of qualifications, being an ex-smoker, BMI, hypertension, and albuminuria. Measuring cystatin C in the 3.9% people with CKDEPI-defined eGFR<60 ml/min/1.73 m(2) without albuminuria (CKD Category G3a A1) reclassified about a third into a lower risk group with one of three biomarkers and two thirds into a group with two of three. Measuring cystatin C in the 6.7% people with CKDEPI eGFR >60 ml/min/1.73 m(2) with albuminuria (CKD Category G1-2) reclassified almost a tenth into a higher risk group.

LIMITATIONS

Cross sectional study, single eGFR measure, no measured ('true') GFR.

CONCLUSIONS

Introducing the CKDEPI equation and targeted cystatin C measurement reduces estimated CKD prevalence and improves risk stratification.

Development of a formula for estimation of sodium intake from spot urine in people with chronic kidney disease

BACKGROUND/AIMS

High sodium intake is associated with adverse cardiovascular and renal outcomes in people with chronic kidney disease (CKD), and simple methods to facilitate assessment of sodium intake are required. The objective of this study was to develop a new formula to estimate 24-hour urinary sodium (24hUNa) excretion from urinary Na concentration measured on an early morning urine specimen (EM UNa).

METHODS

Seventy participants from a prospective cohort of patients with CKD stage 3 in primary care, the Renal Risk in Derby (RRID) study, agreed to collect an additional EM UNa on the day after completing a 24-hour urine collection. A formula to estimate 24hUNa from EM UNa and body weight was developed using the coefficients from a multivariable linear regression equation. The accuracy of the formula was tested by calculating the P30 (proportion of estimates within 30% of measured sodium exection), and the ability of the estimated 24hUNa to discriminate between measured sodium intake above or below 100 mmol/day was assessed by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. A Bland-Altman plot was used to estimate the bias and limits of agreement between estimated and measured 24hUNa. Seventy-four additional paired 24hUNa and EM UNa from 50 CKD stage 3 patients in the RRID study were used to validate the formula.

RESULTS

The mean difference between measured and estimated 24hUNa was 2.08 mmol/day. Measured and estimated 24hUNa were significantly correlated (r = 0.55; p < 0.001) but accuracy of estimated 24hUNa was low (P30 = 60%). Analysis of the ROC curve with a cut-off point >100 mmol/day yielded an area under the curve of 0.668, sensitivity of 0.85 and specificity of 0.52.

CONCLUSIONS

We have developed a simple formula to identify people with a high sodium intake from EM UNa, suitable for use in large-cohort or population studies.

Skin autofluorescence and all-cause mortality in stage 3 CKD

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Novel markers may help to improve risk prediction in CKD. One potential candidate is tissue advanced glycation end product accumulation, a marker of cumulative metabolic stress, which can be assessed by a simple noninvasive measurement of skin autofluorescence. Skin autofluorescence correlates with higher risk of cardiovascular events and mortality in people with diabetes or people requiring RRT, but its role in earlier CKD has not been studied.

DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS

A prospective cohort of 1741 people with CKD stage 3 was recruited from primary care between August 2008 and March 2010. Participants underwent medical history, clinical assessment, blood and urine sampling for biochemistry, and measurement of skin autofluorescence. Kaplan-Meier plots and multivariate Cox proportional hazards models were used to investigate associations between skin autofluorescence (categorical in quartiles) and all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

In total, 1707 participants had skin autofluorescence measured; 170 (10%) participants died after a median of 3.6 years of follow-up. The most common cause of death was cardiovascular disease (41%). Higher skin autofluorescence was associated significantly with poorer survival (all-cause mortality, P<0.001) on Kaplan-Meier analysis. Univariate and age/sex-adjusted Cox proportional hazards models showed that the highest quartile of skin autofluorescence was associated with all-cause mortality (hazard ratio, 2.64; 95% confidence interval, 1.71 to 4.08; P<0.001 and hazard ratio, 1.84; 95% confidence interval, 1.18 to 2.86; P=0.003, respectively, compared with the lowest quartile). This association was not maintained after additional adjustment to include cardiovascular disease, diabetes, smoking, body mass index, eGFR, albuminuria, and hemoglobin.

CONCLUSIONS

Skin autofluorescence was not independently associated with all-cause mortality in this study. Additional research is needed to clarify whether it has a role in risk prediction in CKD.