Longitudinal Studies of Cardiac Troponin I in a Large Cohort of Healthy Children

BACKGROUND

There is little information available on cardiac troponin concentrations in healthy young children.

METHODS

Using a precommercial high-sensitivity assay from Abbott Diagnostics, we measured cardiac troponin I (cTnI) in longitudinal blood samples collected at ages 8, 10, and 12 years from a cohort of healthy, community-dwelling children. The 99th percentile values were calculated and estimates of the long-term biological variation were made.

RESULTS

cTnI concentrations were above the limit of detection in 87%, 90%, and 98% of the children at ages 8, 10, and 12 years. The 99th percentiles were lower compared to a healthy adult population in both male and female children at all ages studied. At the 3 periods of study assessment, different children had cTnI concentrations above the 99th percentile. The calculated 99th percentile varied markedly depending upon whether the lowest or highest cTnI measurement for an individual child was included in the calculation. Biological variation varied markedly between 0% and 136%, the index of individuality was low at 0.36, and the reference change value was an increase of 147% or a decrease of 59%.

CONCLUSIONS

In this longitudinal study of cTnI concentrations in healthy children as determined by a high-sensitivity assay, different children had concentrations of cTnI above the 99th percentile at the 3 episodes of assessment. These results suggest that in children the 99th percentile may not be a reliable index of silent cardiac disease, but rather may be indicating low-grade intercurrent illness.

Determinants of childhood adiposity: evidence from the Australian LOOK study

BACKGROUND

To contribute to the current debate as to the relative influences of dietary intake and physical activity on the development of adiposity in community-based children.

METHODS

Participants were 734 boys and girls measured at age 8, 10 and 12 years for percent body fat (dual emission x-ray absorptiometry), physical activity (pedometers, accelerometers); and dietary intake (1 and 2-day records), with assessments of pubertal development and socioeconomic status.

RESULTS

Cross-sectional relationships revealed that boys and girls with higher percent body fat were less physically active, both in terms of steps per day and moderate and vigorous physical activity (both sexes p<0.001 for both measures). However, fatter children did not consume more energy, fat, carbohydrate or sugar; boys with higher percent body fat actually consumed less carbohydrate (p = 0.01) and energy (p = 0.05). Longitudinal analysis (combined data from both sexes) was weaker, but supported the cross-sectional findings, showing that children who reduced their PA over the four years increased their percent body fat (p = 0.04). Relationships in the 8 year-olds and also in the leanest quartile of all children, where adiposity-related underreporting was unlikely, were consistent with those of the whole group, indicating that underreporting did not influence our findings.

CONCLUSIONS

These data provide support for the premise that physical activity is the main source of variation in the percent body fat of healthy community-based Australian children. General community strategies involving dietary intake and physical activity to combat childhood obesity may benefit by making physical activity the foremost focus of attention.

Effects of changes in adiposity and physical activity on preadolescent insulin resistance: the Australian LOOK longitudinal study

Background

In a previous longitudinal analysis of our cohort as 8 to 10 year-olds, insulin resistance (IR) increased with age, but was not modified by changes in percent body fat (%BF), and was only responsive to changes in physical activity (PA) in boys. We aimed to determine whether these responses persisted as the children approached adolescence.

Methods

In this prospective cohort study, 256 boys and 278 girls were assessed at ages 8, 10 and 12 years for fasting blood glucose and insulin, %BF (dual energy X-ray absorptiometry); PA (7-day pedometers), fitness (multistage run); and pubertal development (Tanner stage).

Results

From age 8 to 12 years, the median homeostatic model of IR (HOMA-IR) doubled in boys and increased 250% in girls. By age 12, 23% of boys and 31% of girls had elevated IR, as indicated by HOMA-IR greater than 3. Longitudinal relationships, with important adjustments for covariates body weight, PA, %BF, Tanner score and socioeconomic status showed that, on average, for every 1 unit reduction of %BF, HOMA-IR was lowered by 2.2% (95% CI 0.04–4) in girls and 1.6% (95% CI 0–3.2) in boys. Furthermore, in boys but not girls, HOMA-IR was decreased by 3.5% (95%CI 0.5–6.5) if PA was increased by 2100 steps/day.

Conclusion

Evidence that a quarter of our apparently healthy 12 year-old Australians possessed elevated IR suggests that community-based education and prevention strategies may be warranted. Responsiveness of IR to changes in %BF in both sexes during late preadolescence and to changes in PA in the boys provides a specific basis for targeting elevated IR. That body weight was a strong covariate of IR, independent of %BF, points to the importance of adjusting for weight in correctly assessing these relationships in growing children.

Rationale and design of a randomized study to determine the value of central Blood Pressure for GUIDing managEment of hypertension: the BP GUIDE study

BACKGROUND

Noninvasive estimates of central blood pressure (BP) predict cardiovascular morbidity and mortality independent of brachial BP. However, there are limited data on the usefulness of central BP in clinical practice. This study aims to test the value of central BP as a management tool for physicians treating patients with essential hypertension.

METHODS

Participants with uncomplicated essential hypertension (N = 284) will be randomized to 12 months of treatment decisions guided by usual care (based on office, home, and 24-hour ambulatory brachial BP) or, in addition, by central BP estimated using radial tonometry (based on age- and sex-specific normal central systolic BP values). Recommendations regarding titration of antihypertensive medication (increase, decrease, or maintain dose) will be provided to each participant's general practitioner as well as the participant themselves. Relevant clinical information (eg, comorbidities, left ventricular [LV] mass, blood biochemistry, and BP-related symptoms) will be considered when making titration recommendations in all participants. The primary outcome measures will be (1) change in LV mass (by real-time 3-dimensional echocardiography), (2) amount of medication used, and (3) quality of life. Analysis will be by intention to treat.

CONCLUSIONS

It is expected that there will be no significant difference in LV mass between groups. However, it is hypothesized that there will be significantly reduced use of medication and improved quality of life in the central BP group because more appropriate titration choices will be made to maintain normal central systolic BP. Results are expected in 2012.

Relations between dairy food intake and arterial stiffness: pulse wave velocity and pulse pressure

Modifiable risk factors, such as diet, are becomingly increasingly important in the management of cardiovascular disease, one of the greatest major causes of death and disease burden. Few studies have examined the role of diet as a possible means of reducing arterial stiffness, as measured by pulse wave velocity, an independent predictor of cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality. The aim of this study was to investigate whether dairy food intake is associated with measures of arterial stiffness, including carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity and pulse pressure. A cross-sectional analysis of a subset of the Maine-Syracuse Longitudinal Study sample was performed. A linear decrease in pulse wave velocity was observed across increasing intakes of dairy food consumption (ranging from never/rarely to daily dairy food intake). The negative linear relationship between pulse wave velocity and intake of dairy food was independent of demographic variables, other cardiovascular disease risk factors, and nutrition variables. The pattern of results was very similar for pulse pressure, whereas no association between dairy food intake and lipid levels was found. Further intervention studies are needed to ascertain whether dairy food intake may be an appropriate dietary intervention for the attenuation of age-related arterial stiffening and reduction of cardiovascular disease risk.

Out-of-office and central blood pressure for risk stratification: a cross-sectional study in patients treated for hypertension

BACKGROUND

Central blood pressure (BP) predicts mortality independent of office brachial BP. Whether central BP may be useful to differentiate BP control requires examination and was the first aim of this study. Secondly, we sought to determine the variability in central BP among patients from different categories of BP control [controlled hypertension (CH), masked hypertension (MH), white coat (WCHT) and uncontrolled hypertension (UH)].

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We assessed patients with uncomplicated hypertension using measurement of central BP (SphygmoCor 8.1), brachial BP and 24-h ambulatory BP monitoring. BP control was defined according to guidelines using office BP and 24-h BP.

RESULTS

Of the 201 patients (63 ± 8 years, 51% men), 67 (33%) were classified as CH; 59 (29%) with MH; 31 (15%) with WCHT; and 44 (22%) with UH. There were no differences in central BP parameters (augmentation pressure, augmentation index, pulse pressure) between patients with CH and MH or between patients with WCHT and UH (P > 0·05 for all). However, there was significant overlap in central systolic BP between BP control categories. For example, 27% of patients with normal brachial systolic BP had central systolic BP above age- and gender-specific normal values, including patients from three classifications of BP control (CH: n = 27; MH: n = 22; and WCHT: n = 4).

CONCLUSION

Office central BP alone cannot delineate categories of BP control. However, given the high degree of variability in central BP among patients from different categories of BP control, measurement of central BP may result in significant reclassification of risk related to BP.

Aspirin for the prevention of cognitive decline in the elderly: rationale and design of a neuro-vascular imaging study (ENVIS-ion)

BACKGROUND

This paper describes the rationale and design of the ENVIS-ion Study, which aims to determine whether low-dose aspirin reduces the development of white matter hyper-intense (WMH) lesions and silent brain infarction (SBI). Additional aims include determining whether a) changes in retinal vascular imaging (RVI) parameters parallel changes in brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI); b) changes in RVI parameters are observed with aspirin therapy; c) baseline cognitive function correlates with MRI and RVI parameters; d) changes in cognitive function correlate with changes in brain MRI and RVI and e) whether factors such as age, gender or blood pressure influence the above associations.

METHODS/DESIGN

Double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of three years duration set in two Australian academic medical centre outpatient clinics. This study will enrol 600 adults aged 70 years and over with normal cognitive function and without overt cardiovascular disease. Subjects will undergo cognitive testing, brain MRI and RVI at baseline and after 3 years of study treatment. All subjects will be recruited from a 19,000-patient clinical outcome trial conducted in Australia and the United States that will evaluate the effects of aspirin in maintaining disability-free longevity over 5 years. The intervention will be aspirin 100 mg daily versus matching placebo, randomized on a 1:1 basis.

DISCUSSION

This study will improve understanding of the mechanisms at the level of brain and vascular structure that underlie the effects of aspirin on cognitive function. Given the limited access and high cost of MRI, RVI may prove useful as a tool for the identification of individuals at high risk for the development of cerebrovascular disease and cognitive decline.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT01038583.

Navigating the fine line between benefit and risk in chronic atrial fibrillation: rationale and design of the Standard versus Atrial Fibrillation spEcific managemenT studY (SAFETY)

BACKGROUND

Health outcomes associated with atrial fibrillation (AF) continue to be poor and standard management often does not provide clinical stability. The Standard versus Atrial Fibrillation spEcific managemenT studY (SAFETY) compares the efficacy of a post-discharge, nurse-led, multi-disciplinary programme to optimise AF management with usual care.

METHODS

SAFETY is a prospective, multi-centre, randomised controlled trial with blinded-endpoint adjudication. A target of 320 hospitalised patients with a chronic form of AF will be randomised (stratified by "rate" versus "rhythm" control) to usual post-discharge care or the SAFETY Intervention (SI). The SI involves home-based assessment, extensive clinical profiling and the application of optimal gold-standard pharmacology which is individually tailored according to a "traffic light" framework based on clinical stability, risk profile and therapeutic management. The primary endpoint is event-free survival from all-cause death or unplanned readmission during 18-36 months follow-up. Secondary endpoints include rate of recurrent hospital stay, treatment success (i.e. maintenance of rhythm or rate control and/or application of anti-thrombotic therapy without a bleeding event) and cost-efficacy.

RESULTS

With study recruitment to be completed in early 2012, the results of this study will be available in early 2014.

CONCLUSIONS

If positive, SAFETY will represent a potentially cost-effective and readily applicable strategy to improve health outcomes in high risk individuals discharged from hospital with chronic AF.

Coronary artery disease affecting the atrial branches is an independent determinant of atrial fibrillation after myocardial infarction

BACKGROUND

During acute myocardial infarction (MI), the incidence of atrial fibrillation (AF) is 6% to 22%, and its occurrence in this setting is associated with increased short- and long-term morbidity and mortality.

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this case control study was evaluate the characteristics associated with the development of new-onset AF.

METHODS

Of 2,460 consecutive patients with acute MI, 149 (6%) were identified as having AF within 7 days of MI. After excluding patients with prior AF, previously documented heart failure, reduced left ventricular (LV) ejection fraction, valvular heart disease, LV hypertrophy, AF after coronary artery bypass grafting, or pericarditis; we identified 42 AF patients in whom coronary anatomy was assessed by invasive angiography and cardiac structure and function was evaluated using transthoracic echocardiography. Another 42 patients from the same cohort with MI but no AF matched for age, gender, and LV ejection fraction were studied as controls.

RESULTS

AF patients were more likely to present with an inferior MI (P = .002) but less likely to present with ST-segment elevation MI (P = .02). Univariate associations with AF included indexed left atrial volume (P <.001), LV filling pressure (E/e'; P = .001), right atrial branch disease (P <.001), left atrial branch disease (P = .009), sinoatrial branch disease (P <.001), left main stem disease (P = .02), and time from onset of symptoms to coronary intervention (P = .002). In multivariable analysis, right and left coronary artery atrial branch disease (P = .02) were predictors of AF post-MI.

CONCLUSION

Coronary artery disease affecting the atrial branches is an independent predictor for the development of AF after MI.

Tissue Doppler image-derived measurements during isovolumic contraction predict exercise capacity in patients with reduced left ventricular ejection fraction

OBJECTIVES

We explored the incremental value of quantification of tissue Doppler (TD) velocity during the brief isovolumic contraction (IVC) phase of the cardiac cycle for the prediction of exercise performance in patients referred for cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET).

BACKGROUND

Experimental studies have shown that rapid left ventricular (LV) shape change during IVC is essential for optimal onset of LV ejection. However, the incremental value of measuring IVC velocities in clinical settings remains unclear.

METHODS

A total of 82 subjects (age 53+/-14 years, 56 men) were studied with echocardiography and CPET. Reduced LV ejection fraction (EF) (EF<50%) was present in 38 (46%) subjects. Pulsed-wave annular TD velocities were averaged from the LV lateral and septal annulus during isovolumic contraction (IVCa), ejection, isovolumic relaxation, and early and late diastole (Aa) and compared with peak oxygen consumption (VO2) and percentage of the predicted peak VO2 (% predicted peak VO2) obtained from CPET.

RESULTS

Patients with reduced EF had lower IVCa (6.3 vs. 4.5 cm/s, p=0.04), ejection (7.7 vs. 5.5 cm/s, p<0.001), and Aa velocities (7.9 vs. 6.6 cm/s, p=0.04). Similarly, % predicted peak VO2 was lower in patients with reduced EF (52.9% vs. 73.1%, p<0.001) and correlated with the variations in IVCa (r=0.7, p=0.001). Multivariate analysis of 2-dimensional and Doppler variables in the presence of reduced LV EF revealed only IVCa and Aa as independent predictors of % predicted peak VO2 (r2=0.612, p=0.02 for IVCa and p=0.009 for Aa). The overall performance of IVCa in the prediction of exercise capacity was good (area under the curve=0.86, p<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Assessment of TD-derived IVC and atrial stretch velocities provide independent prediction of exercise capacity in patients with reduced LV EF. Assessment of LV pre-ejectional stretch and shortening mechanics at rest may be useful for determining the myocardial functional reserve of patients with reduced EF.

Arterial stiffness: methods of measurement, physiologic determinants and prediction of cardiovascular outcomes

Arterial stiffness has been shown to be a potent and independent predictor of cardiovascular risk. In this review, we outline methods for the measurement of arterial stiffness, describe the physiological mechanisms that underpin the utility of arterial stiffness as an integrative marker of cardiovascular disease, and detail the evidence examining the value of arterial stiffness for prediction of adverse cardiovascular events and mortality. The extent to which arterial stiffness may be modified by medical and lifestyle therapy is reviewed.

Influence of adiposity and physical activity on arterial stiffness in healthy children: the lifestyle of our kids study

Childhood obesity is increasingly prevalent in the community and is related to adverse cardiovascular outcomes during adulthood. In this study of healthy children, we evaluated the influence of adiposity and physical activity on carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity (PWV), an index of arterial stiffness and a marker of cardiovascular risk in adults. In 573 community-based children (mean age: 10.1+/-0.3 years; 51% boys), we measured body mass index and waist circumference. Percentage body fat was quantitated by dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry. Cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) and physical activity levels were assessed using a 20-m shuttle run and 7-day pedometer count, respectively. PWV was estimated by applanation tonometry. In univariate analysis, PWV was positively correlated with body mass index (r=0.34), waist circumference (r=0.32), and percentage body fat (r=0.32; P<0.001 for all) and negatively correlated with CRF (r=-0.23; P<0.001) and pedometer count (r=-0.08; P=0.046). In separate multivariable linear regression models, body mass index, waist circumference, and percentage of body fat were independently and positively associated with PWV (P<0.01 for all) after adjusting for age, sex, systolic blood pressure, mean arterial pressure, heart rate, and CRF (P<0.01 for all). The influence of CRF on PWV was attenuated after adjusting for adiposity. In conclusion, increased body mass and adiposity and decreased CRF are associated with arterial stiffening in healthy prepubescent children.

Arterial pulse wave velocity and cognition with advancing age

We hypothesized that carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity (PWV), a marker of arterial stiffness, interacts with age such that the magnitude of associations between PWV and cognitive performance are greater with increasing age and that this interaction is observed despite adjustments for demographic variables, mean arterial pressure, and cardiovascular risk factors. PWV was estimated using applanation tonometry in 409 dementia- and stroke-free participants of the Maine-Syracuse Longitudinal Study (24 to 92 years of age; 62.3% women). Using linear regression analyses in a cross-sectional design, associations between PWV and age and the interaction of PWV and age were examined in relation to a global composite score, the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale Similarities test (abstract reasoning), and 4 cognitive domains indexed by multiple cognitive measures. Adjusting for age, gender, education, height, weight, heart rate, mean arterial pressure, and antihypertensive treatment, PWV-by-age interactions were obtained for the global, visual-spatial organization and memory, scanning and tracking, and verbal episodic memory composites, as well as similarities. The combination of higher PWV and age resulted in progressively lower cognitive performance. This finding was the same with an extended model, which also included adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors and other confounds. PWV interacts with age in a multiplicative way to exert a negative influence on cognitive performance level. Early interventions to prevent an increase in arterial stiffness could possibly play an important role in the preservation of cognitive ability.

Minimum vs. maximum left atrial volume for prediction of first atrial fibrillation or flutter in an elderly cohort: a prospective study

AIMS

We sought to compare the predictive power and reproducibility between minimum and maximum left atrial (LA) volume for the development of first atrial fibrillation (AF)/flutter.

METHODS AND RESULTS

This prospective study included 574 adults, mean age 74+/-6 years, in sinus rhythm, and had no history or evidence of prior atrial arrhythmias. During a mean follow-up of 1.9+/-1.2 years, 30 (5.2%) developed first AF/flutter. The 3-year risk estimates of freedom from AF/flutter by tertiles of minimum and maximum LA volumes were, respectively, 97, 87, and 74% (P<0.0006) and 94, 85, and 78% (P=0.03). Minimum LA volume was incremental to clinical and other echocardiographic parameters of AF/flutter prediction [per tertile, hazard ratio (HR) 2.4], as was maximum LA volume (per tertile, HR 1.8) in a separate model. When both volumes were entered into the same model and adjusting for covariates, minimum but not maximum LA volume retained significance. However, in terms of interobserver reproducibility, maximum LA volume compared more favourably (mean difference 3.1+/-7.1 vs. 7.4+/-7.3 mL/m(2)).

CONCLUSION

Minimal LA volume was an independent predictor of first AF/flutter. Although it was marginally superior to maximal LA volume in terms of predictive ability, the interobserver variability was greater.

Comparison of usefulness of tissue Doppler imaging versus brain natriuretic peptide for differentiation of constrictive pericardial disease from restrictive cardiomyopathy

Brain (B-type) natriuretic peptide (BNP) and tissue Doppler imaging may distinguish restrictive cardiomyopathy (RCMP) from idiopathic constrictive pericardial disease (CP). However, their comparative efficacy is unknown for patients with CP from secondary causes (e.g., surgery or radiotherapy). We compared the efficacy of tissue Doppler imaging and BNP for differentiation of RCMP (n = 15) and CP (n = 16) were compared. BNP was higher in patients with RCMP than CP (p = 0.008), but the groups overlapped, particularly for BNP <400 pg/ml. BNP was lower with idiopathic CP than secondary CP (139 +/- 50 vs 293 +/- 69 pg/ml; p <0.001) or RCMP (139 +/- 50 vs 595 +/- 499 pg/ml; p <0.001), but not significantly different between those with secondary CP and RCMP (293 +/- 69 vs 595 +/- 499 pg/ml; p = 0.1). Patients with CP and RCMP had less overlap in early diastolic and isovolumic contraction tissue Doppler imaging velocities compared with BNP, with clear separation of groups evident with mean early diastolic annular velocities (averaged from 4 walls). Early diastolic tissue Doppler imaging velocity was superior to BNP for differentiation of CP and RCMP (area under the curve 0.97 vs 0.76, respectively; p = 0.01). In conclusion, mean early diastolic mitral annular velocity correctly distinguished CP from RCMP even when there was a large overlap of BNP between the 2 groups.

Left atrial reservoir function as a potent marker for first atrial fibrillation or flutter in persons > or = 65 years of age

The aim of this prospective study was to evaluate the incremental value of left atrial (LA) function for the prediction of risk for first atrial fibrillation (AF) or atrial flutter. Maximum and minimum LA volumes were quantitated by echocardiography in 574 adults (mean age 74 +/- 6 years, 52% men) without a history or evidence of atrial arrhythmia. During a mean follow-up period of 1.9 +/- 1.2 years, 30 subjects (5.2%) developed electrocardiographically confirmed AF or atrial flutter. Subjects with new AF or atrial flutter had lower LA reservoir function, as measured by total LA emptying fraction (38% vs 49%, p <0.0001) and higher maximum LA volumes (47 vs 40 ml/m(2), p = 0.005). An increase in age-adjusted risk for AF or atrial flutter was evident when the cohort was stratified according to medians of LA emptying fraction (< or =49%: hazard ratio 6.5, p = 0.001) and LA volume (> or =38 ml/m(2): hazard ratio 2.0, p = 0.07), with the risk being highest for subjects with concomitant LA emptying fractions < or =49% and LA volume > or =38 ml/m(2) (hazard ratio 9.3, p = 0.003). LA emptying fraction (p = 0.002) was associated with risk for first AF or atrial flutter after adjusting for baseline clinical risk factors for AF or atrial flutter, left ventricular ejection fraction, diastolic function grade, and LA volume. In conclusion, reduced LA reservoir function markedly increases the propensity for first AF or atrial flutter, independent of LA volume, left ventricular function, and clinical risk factors.

Risk of dementia in stroke-free patients diagnosed with atrial fibrillation: data from a community-based cohort

AIMS

To estimate the incidence of dementia after the first atrial fibrillation (AF), and its impact on survival in a community-based cohort.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Olmsted County, Minnesota adult residents diagnosed with first AF during 1986-2000 were identified, and followed until 2004. The primary outcome was new detection of dementia. Interim stroke was censored in the analyses. Of 2837 subjects (71 +/- 15 years old) diagnosed with first AF and without any evidence of cognitive dysfunction or stroke at the time of AF onset, 299 were diagnosed with dementia during a median follow-up of 4.6 years [interquartile (IQR) range 1.5-7.9 years], and 1638 died. The Kaplan-Meier cumulative rate of dementia was 2.7% at 1 year and 10.5% at 5 years. After adjustment for age and sex, dementia was strongly related to advancing age [hazard ratio (HR)/10 years, 2.8; 95% confidence interval (CI), 2.5-3.2], but did not vary with sex (P = 0.52). The occurrence of post-AF dementia was associated with significantly increased mortality risk (HR 2.9; 95% CI 2.5-3.3), even after adjustment for multiple comorbidities, and did not vary with age (P = 0.75) or sex (P = 0.33).

CONCLUSION

Dementia appeared common following the diagnosis of first AF, and was associated with premature death.

Relation of arterial stiffness to left ventricular diastolic function and cardiovascular risk prediction in patients > or =65 years of age

There is a paucity of data regarding the relation between the various noninvasive indexes of arterial stiffness and left ventricular diastolic function. In 188 subjects aged > or =65 years (mean 75 +/- 5; 71% men), the concordance and strength of the association between measures of arterial stiffness and left ventricular diastolic function were evaluated. Indexes of arterial stiffness (brachial and aortic pulse pressure [PP], carotid-femoral pulse-wave velocity [PWV], and augmentation pressure [AP]) were measured using applanation tonometry. Diastolic function was classified in terms of instantaneous diastolic function grade and quantitated as left atrial volume, a measure of chronic diastolic burden. Risk for new cardiovascular events was estimated using a validated clinical echocardiographic risk algorithm. Aortic and brachial PP, PWV, and AP were correlated positively with left atrial volume and diastolic function grade. After adjusting for age, gender, and clinical and echocardiographic covariates, 1-SD increases in aortic PP, brachial PP, PWV, and AP were associated with 6%, 6%, 4%, and 4% increases in indexed left atrial volume, respectively. Similarly, 1-SD increases in aortic PP, brachial PP, and AP were associated with 84%, 81%, and 83% increased risk for diastolic dysfunction, respectively (all p <0.04). PWV and aortic and brachial PP were superior to AP in discriminating subjects with the highest risk of having new cardiovascular events (5-year risk >50%; area under receiver-operating characteristic curve 0.67, 0.67, 0.70, and 0.56, respectively; p <0.05). In conclusion, increased arterial stiffness was associated with more severe left ventricular diastolic dysfunction, although the strength of the association varied according to the specific measure used. Aortic PP, brachial PP, and PWV appeared superior to AP in risk discrimination in this elderly cohort.

Population-based detection of systolic and diastolic dysfunction with amino-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide

BACKGROUND

There is limited information regarding the clinical utility of amino-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) for the detection of left ventricular (LV) dysfunction in the community. We evaluated predictors of circulating NT-proBNP levels and determined the utility of NT-proBNP to detect systolic and diastolic LV dysfunction in older adults.

METHODS

A population-based sample of 1229 older adults (mean age 69.4 years, 50.1% women) underwent echocardiographic assessment of cardiac structure and function and measurement of circulating NT-proBNP levels.

RESULTS

Predictors of NT-proBNP included age, female sex, body mass index, and cardiorenal parameters (diastolic dysfunction [DD] severity; LV mass and left atrial volume; right ventricular overload; decreasing ejection fraction [EF] and creatinine clearance). The performance of NT-proBNP to detect any degree of LV dysfunction, including mild DD, was poor (area under the curve 0.56-0.66). In contrast, the performance of NT-proBNP for the detection of EF < or = 40% and moderate-severe DD was strong with area under the curve of > 0.90 regardless of age and sex; history of hypertension, diabetes, coronary artery disease; or body mass category. The ability of NT-proBNP to detect EF < or = 40% and/or moderate-severe DD was optimized by using age/sex-specific limits. Of "false-positive" tests, 88% (124/141) were explained after considering cardiorenal determinants of NT-proBNP levels.

CONCLUSIONS

Amino-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide is a suboptimal marker of mild LV dysfunction, but performs strongly as a marker of EF < or = 40% and/or moderate-severe DD in the community. Most subjects with a positive NT-proBNP test, using age/sex-specific cutoffs, had prognostically significant abnormalities of cardiac structure or function.

Secular trends in incidence of atrial fibrillation in Olmsted County, Minnesota, 1980 to 2000, and implications on the projections for future prevalence

BACKGROUND

Limited data exist on trends in incidence of atrial fibrillation (AF). We assessed the community-based trends in AF incidence for 1980 to 2000 and provided prevalence projections to 2050.

METHODS AND RESULTS

The adult residents of Olmsted County, Minnesota, who had ECG-confirmed first AF in the period 1980 to 2000 (n=4618) were identified. Trends in age-adjusted incidence were determined and used to construct model-based prevalence estimates. The age- and sex-adjusted incidence of AF per 1000 person-years was 3.04 (95% CI, 2.78 to 3.31) in 1980 and 3.68 (95% CI, 3.42 to 3.95) in 2000. According to Poisson regression with adjustment for age and sex, incidence of AF increased significantly (P=0.014), with a relative increase of 12.6% (95% CI, 2.1 to 23.1) over 21 years. The increase in age-adjusted AF incidence did not differ between men and women (P=0.84). According to the US population projections by the US Census Bureau, the number of persons with AF is projected to be 12.1 million by 2050, assuming no further increase in age-adjusted incidence of AF, but 15.9 million if the increase in incidence continues.

CONCLUSIONS

The age-adjusted incidence of AF increased significantly in Olmsted County during 1980 to 2000. Whether or not this rate of increase continues, the projected number of persons with AF for the United States will exceed 10 million by 2050, underscoring the urgent need for primary prevention strategies against AF development.