Alternative dual system network estimators

"When there are two or more data systems and none of them enumerates the population at an acceptable completeness level, concern about the bias due to underenumeration suggests an estimator which makes joint use of data compiled by the combined imperfect data systems. Conventional dual system estimators are based on the existence of two separate data collection systems. Dual system network estimators assume a main survey and a follow-up quality check survey. The main survey adopts a multiplicity counting rule that combines two mutually exclusive partial counting rules." Three dual system network estimators are presented. "One was previously proposed by Sirken (1979) and is the natural analogue of the conventional dual system estimator. The two other estimators are proposed as potential improvements, although neither of them is the natural analogue of the conventional dual system estimator. The design effects of the three estimators are compared analytically and empirically with one another, and with those of the single system conventional and network estimators." (summary in FRE)

Mortality differentials in France during the late 18th and early 19th centuries

"The very high quality of a set of marriage records for Paris during the 1860s made it possible to apply indirect methods to estimate adult mortality differentials by certain geographical and social criteria of the 19th century. The largest differences between groups were observed to be social, geographical origin apparently having little impact.... It is interesting that social differences in adult mortality are similar in magnitude to those observed today. Perhaps the principal factor of differentiation is then the level of child mortality.... It is by no means necessary to have a set of data as complete as ours. The indirect methods we have used proved largely adequate for estimating mortality differentials."

The aging of the population and the financing of local governments

"This paper explores the residential property tax burdens faced by elderly homeowners in the United States. The results demonstrate that the use of annual data in income and property tax liabilities to calculate tax burdens overstates the regressivity of the property tax. The magnitude of the bias created by using annual income is determined by comparing tax burdens calculated from annual data with burdens calculated from tax liabilities and income data covering a 12-year period. The results indicate that while the residential property tax on the non-elderly is approximately proportional, the pattern of burdens on the elderly remains regressive."

Miscounting the Spanish origin population in the United States: corrections to the 1970 census and their implications

"The purpose of this...paper is three-fold: (a) to identify the discrepancies in the 1970 census figures [for the Spanish-origin population in the United States], (b) to suggest alternative strategies for correcting the original figures and briefly report on an estimate of the possible 'correct' figures for 1970, and (c) to briefly summarize the implications of the corrected figures for past and present research." The revised figures lower the total Spanish-origin population by about one million and increase the relative importance of specific groups, such as Mexicans, Puerto Ricans, and Cubans. The results also indicate that the rate of growth for the Spanish-origin population from 1970 to 1980 was higher than previously estimated. (summary in FRE, SPA)

Mapping disease and mortality rates using empirical Bayes estimators

"Methods for estimating regional mortality and disease rates, with a view to mapping disease, are discussed. A new empirical Bayes estimator, with parameters simply estimated by moments, is proposed and compared with iterative alternatives suggested by Clayton and Kaldor." The author develops a local shrinkage estimator in which a crude disease rate is shrunk toward a local, neighborhood rate. The estimators are compared using simulations and an empirical example based on infant mortality data for Auckland, New Zealand.