Assessing the impact of large-scale farmland abandonment on the habitat distributions of frog species after the Fukushima nuclear accident

Rice paddies function as wetlands; therefore, abandoned paddy fields cause a loss of habitats for aquatic species, such as amphibians. Following the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant in 2011, paddy fields around the plant were abandoned and rapidly dried. To identify the impact of large-scale abandonment of paddy fields on the habitats of frogs, we investigated changes in the distributions of four frogs that breed in paddy fields using niche modeling and field surveys. The spatial distributions of suitable habitats before and after the accident for each frog were created using MaxEnt. In the area where rice cropping was restricted due to radioactive contamination, the areas of suitable habitats decreased for Pelophylax porosus porosus but increased or remained unchanged for other frogs after the accident. Additionally, field surveys conducted in 2014 indicated that the ratios of breeding sites in the area where rice cropping was restricted were significantly lower for P. p. porosus and Hyla japonica than outside this area. Thus, 3 years after the accident, one species strongly dependent upon paddy fields rapidly disappeared over a large area. Although amphibian populations or monitoring data were not available to examine changes directly after the accident in the study area, this research showed that the combination of niche modeling and field survey was effective for predicting species response after an accident and revealed that large-scale disasters sufficient to disrupt agricultural activity could markedly change the distribution of species reliant on habitats created by human activity.

A hydrological perspective on drought risk-assessment in the Yellow River Basin under future anthropogenic activities

Since the late 1970s, the Yellow River Basin (YRB) has experienced accelerated land-use/land cover changes (LULCC) and consumptive water use (CWU) that have imposed low-flow regimes. Upon the continuation of these anthropogenic activities in the future, significant hydrological alteration is expected. This study takes a hydrological perspective on drought to project changes in the YRB drought risk under future LULCC and CWU business-as-usual (BAU) scenarios. A combination of seasonal trend forecasting, drought indices, land-use and hydrological modeling techniques was used. Future LULCC is assessed based on two BAU scenarios to explore the patterns of LULCC with (LULCC-BAU1) and without (LULCC-BAU2) the continuation of the Chinese Grain for Green Program. The results indicated that LULCC-BAU2 will increase the risk of mild and moderate droughts, while CWU and LULCC-BAU1 will impose higher risk of severe and extreme events. LULCC-BAU1 is projected to exacerbate the duration and intensity of the agricultural/hydrological droughts. The frequency of hydrological drought under LULCC-BAU1 and CWU scenarios is projected to increase by 43% and 53% during 2021-2050. The future agricultural droughts will likely be more intense and prolonged than meteorological droughts. Hydrological droughts, however, will be characterized by prolonged but less intense drought comparing to the metrological droughts. The meteorological to agricultural drought propagation will likely be driven by LULCC under BAU1, while the meteorological to hydrological drought propagation is controlled by CWU changes.

Exploring the long-term vegetation dynamics of different ecological zones in the farming-pastoral ecotone in northern China

The vegetation in the farming-pastoral ecotone in northern China is influenced by both natural and anthropogenic factors and has undergone drastic changes in the past decades. The farming-pastoral ecotone is the transition zone from agriculture to animal husbandry. The ecological environment of this ecotone is complex and fragile. Most researches have primarily focused on the entire farming-pastoral ecotone, seldomly considering the differences between different ecological zones characterized by soil, climate, and biome conditions. Based on the long time series of leaf area index (LAI) data, meteorological data, and land-use dataset, this study analyzed LAI variation trends, the correlations between LAI and climate factors, and the impact of land-use type change on vegetation in the farming-pastoral ecotone in northern China. Moreover, this paper makes a full study of the changes of the whole study area from the perspective of the differences between different ecological zones. The results showed that over 36 years, areas with vegetation improvements were considerably larger than those with degradations. However, there were still 49.56% of the total area showing no significant vegetation change. There are differences in vegetation change and response to climate between the forest ecological zones and the grassland ecological zones. The vegetation improvement trends of the forest ecological zones were larger and more sensitive to temperature, while the vegetation improvements of the grassland ecological zones were relatively small, and were more sensitive to precipitation. Human activities promote LAI changes in areas close to the forest ecological zones. The change of land use indicates that the decrease of the overall natural vegetation area has not resulted in decreasing LAI. And there is a growing trend of woodland area in the grassland ecological zones. The study provides a theoretical basis for the management of the environment and vegetation in the farming-pastoral ecotone in northern China.

Detection and prediction of lake degradation using landscape metrics and remote sensing dataset

Monitoring changes in natural ecosystems is considered essential to natural resource management. Despite the global importance of the lakes' quality monitoring, there is currently a research gap in the simultaneous predictive modeling of lakes' land-use changes and ecosystem measurements. In the present study for projecting the water bodies of lakes and their surrounding ecosystems, the land-use changes and the landscape analysis of different periods, i.e., 1987, 2002, 2018, and 2030, are studied using remote sensing data and various metrics. The trend of land-use and landscape changes is projected for 2030. The results indicate significant degradation of rangelands and forests due to the conversion to agriculture and construction and the declining trend of lakes' water body and their transformation to salt lake and salt lands. The increase of agricultural lands and the overuse of groundwater wells upstream of the lakes could be one of the reasons for this decline. Decreasing the lakes' water body and subsequently increasing salt lands are considered a severe threat to human health and the ecosystem services of the lakes. Besides, the dust generated by salt lands could also decrease crop yield in the study area.

Warming-driven shifts in ecological control of fish communities in a large northern Chinese lake over 66 years

Warming, land-use change, and habitat loss are three major threats to aquatic biodiversity worldwide under the influences of anthropogenic disturbances. Positive feedback between warming and bottom-up regulation may cause irreversible ecological regime shifts. Threshold dynamics of interspecific interactions have been rarely studied in freshwater fish communities using threshold community models. Here we use 66 years (1950-2015) of data to link four ecological regime shifts of 9-species fish communities to climatic and land use changes in Lake Hulun, the largest freshwater lake of Northern China. Overfishing caused the collapse of piscivorous fish populations and an ecological regime shift of Lake Hulun in the late 1950s. The first recorded algal bloom of Lake Hulun took place in 1986, with accelerated warming and rapid increases in livestock grazing. The dominance of planktivorous minnow populations reduced fish biodiversity in a nonlinear, threshold manner when annual mean ambient temperature was >0.12 °C. Multivariate environmental vector regression demonstrated that warming, eutrophication, and water-storage reduction (i.e., habitat loss) were related to three ecological regime shifts of Lake Hulun from 1960 to 2015. Multivariate autoregressive models (MAR) did not detect predation by piscivorous fish in Lake Hulun after 1960. Threshold MAR models indicated that dominant minnow populations and other prey fish populations switched from top-down to bottom-up control during the 1980s. Sustained positive feedback between warming, the dominance of planktivorous fish populations, and bottom-up regulation caused predator-prey role reversal, and probably resulted in three regime shifts of Lake Hulun over 56 years. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of ecological regime shifts in Hulun Lake fish communities, and has potential implications for fish species living in similar environments that are subject to global warming, land-use changes, and overfishing.

The role of bacterial communities in shaping Cd-induced hormesis in 'living' soil as a function of land-use change

Bacterial communities and soil physicochemical properties shape soil enzymes activities. However, how environmental factors and bacterial communities affect the relationship between increasing doses of soil pollutants and soil alkaline phosphatase (ALP), an index of soil microbiota activity, remains poorly understood. In this study, we investigated the response of soil ALP to 13 doses of Cd (0 and 0.01-100 mg/kg) under four land uses, viz. grassland (GL), natural forest (NF), plantation forest (PF), and wheat field (WF). We found that Cd commonly induced hormetic-like responses of soil ALP, with a maximum stimulation of 10.7%, 10.1%, 11.6%, and 14.5% in GL, NF, PF, and WF, respectively. The size of the hormetic zone (Hor_zone), an integrated indicator of the stimulation phase and biological plasticity, was in the order GL > WF > PF > NF, and the hormetic zone occurred in the dose range of 5-10, 0.3-10, 0.8-3, and 3-5 mg/kg, respectively. These results indicate highly pleiotropic responses of 'living' soil system to promote resilience to Cd contamination, with soil microbiota potentially contributing to soil ALP's hormetic-like response under different land uses. The hormetic-like response of 'living' soil ALP in different land uses offers a new insight into the identification and minimization of the ecological risks of land-use change in Cd-contaminated lands.

Trophic niche differentiation and utilisation of food resources in Collembola is altered by rainforest conversion to plantation systems

Intensively managed monoculture plantations are increasingly replacing natural forests across the tropics resulting in changes in ecological niches of species and communities, and in ecosystem functioning. Collembola are among the most abundant arthropods inhabiting the belowground system sensitively responding to changes in vegetation and soil conditions. However, most studies on the response of Collembola to land-use change were conducted in temperate ecosystems and focused on shifts in community composition or morphological traits, while parameters more closely linked to ecosystem functioning, such as trophic niches, received little attention. Here, we used stable isotope analysis (¹³C and ¹⁵N) to investigate changes in the trophic structure and use of food resources by Collembola in Jambi province (Sumatra, Indonesia), a region that experienced strong deforestation in the last decades. Isotopic values of Collembola from 32 sites representing four land-use systems were analyzed (rainforest, rubber agroforest, rubber (Hevea brasiliansis) and oil palm (Elaeis guineensis) monoculture plantations). Across Collembola species Δ¹³C values were highest in rainforest suggesting more pronounced processing of litter resources by microorganisms and consumption of these microorganisms by Collembola in this system. Lower Δ¹³C values, but high Δ¹³C variation in Collembola in oil palm plantations indicated that Collembola shifted towards herbivory and used more variable resources in this system. Small range in Δ¹⁵N values in Collembola species in monoculture plantations in comparison to rainforest indicated that conversion of rainforest into plantations is associated with simplification in the trophic structure of Collembola communities. This was further confirmed by generally lower isotopic niche differentiation among species in plantations. Across the studied ecosystems, atmobiotic species (Symphypleona and Paronellidae) occupied the lowest, whereas euedaphic Collembola species occupied the highest trophic position, resembling patterns in temperate forests. Some species of Paronellidae in rainforest and jungle rubber had Δ¹⁵N values below those of leaf litter suggesting algivory (Salina sp.1, Callyntrura sp.1 and Lepidonella sp.1), while a dominant species, Pseudosinella sp.1, had the highest Δ¹⁵N values in most of the land-use systems suggesting that this species at least in part lives as predator or scavenger. Overall, the results suggest that rainforest conversion into plantation systems is associated with marked shifts in the structure of trophic niches in soil and litter Collembola with potential consequences for ecosystem functioning and food-web stability.

Hydrological impacts of ethanol-driven sugarcane expansion in Brazil

Ethanol production in Brazil is projected to double between 2012 and 2030 in order to meet increased global demand, resulting in the expansion of sugarcane cultivation. Sugarcane expansion drives both direct and indirect land-use changes, and subsequent changes in hydrology may exacerbate problems of (local) water scarcity. This study assesses the impacts of projected ethanol-driven sugarcane expansion on agricultural and hydrological drought in Brazil. Drought due to sugarcane expansion is modelled using a spatial terrestrial hydrological model (PCR-GLOBWB) with spatiotemporally variable land-use change and climate change scenarios as input. We compare an ethanol scenario with increased ethanol demand to a reference situation in which ethanol demand does not increase. The results show that, on average, 29% of the Centre West Cerrado region is projected to experience agricultural drought between 2012 and 2030, and the drought deficit in this region is projected to be 7% higher in the ethanol scenario compared to the reference. The differences between the ethanol and the reference scenario are small when averaged over macro-regions, but can be considerable at a local scale. Differences in agricultural and hydrological drought between the ethanol and reference scenario are most notable in the Centre West Cerrado and Southeast regions. Locally, considerable changes may also occur in other regions, including the Northeast Coast and Northern Amazon region. Because the South East and Centre West Cerrado regions are responsible for a large proportion of agricultural production, increased agricultural drought may result in significant economic losses, while increased hydrological drought could exacerbate existing problems of water supply to large metropolitan areas in these regions. The identification of areas at risk of increased droughts can be important information for policy makers to take precautionary measures to avoid negative hydrological impacts of increased ethanol demand.

Strategies for identifying pollution sources in a headwater catchment based on multi-scale water quality monitoring

Rural headwater catchments are important to describe the connectivity of pollution sources to water bodies. Strategies to optimize water quality monitoring networks, as parameter definition, sampling, and statistical approach, have been widely discussed. The objectives of this study were to describe the spatial and temporal dynamics (intra- and inter-events) of water quality and to establish its implications for environmental monitoring programs. The monitoring was carried out in a rural headwater catchment (1.2 km²) with shallow soils, high slopes, and intense agricultural activity in Southern Brazil. To better describe the impact of agriculture on water resources, the monitoring strategy was based on definition of the best set of parameters and different sampling frequency to incorporate intra- and inter-event variability and statistical analysis approach. We also analyzed parameters in different sub-basins with physiographic traits. Three hydrological compartments were analyzed: surface flow, groundwater, and base flow. Physico-chemical parameters, the concentration of elements associated with agricultural activity, and biological parameters were evaluated. Total phosphorus and turbidity were the parameters most affected by agricultural activity. They reflected on the inter- and intra-events, the impacts of soil and water degradation by agricultural activity, and the precarious rural sanitation conditions. Spatiotemporal variability of the parameters characterizes the different mechanisms for transferring pollutants from diffuse sources to water bodies. Spatial and temporal patterns in water quality changes were used to discuss environmental monitoring strategies, such as parameter and sampling frequency definition, to improve soil and water conservation programs at the catchment scale.

Changes in diversity and community assembly of jumping spiders (Araneae: Salticidae) after rainforest conversion to rubber and oil palm plantations

Rainforest conversion into monoculture plantations results in species loss and community shifts across animal taxa. The effect of such conversion on the role of ecophysiological properties influencing communities, and conversion effects on phylogenetic diversity and community assembly mechanisms, however, are rarely studied in the same context. Here, we compare salticid spider (Araneae: Salticidae) communities between canopies of lowland rainforest, rubber agroforest (“jungle rubber”) and monoculture plantations of rubber or oil palm, sampled in a replicated plot design in Jambi Province, Sumatra, Indonesia. Overall, we collected 912 salticid spider individuals and sorted them to 70 morphospecies from 21 genera. Salticid richness was highest in jungle rubber, followed by rainforest, oil palm and rubber, but abundance of salticids did not differ between land-use systems. Community composition was similar in jungle rubber and rainforest but different from oil palm and rubber, which in turn were different from each other. The four investigated land-use systems differed in aboveground plant biomass, canopy openness and land use intensity, which explained 12% of the observed variation in canopy salticid communities. Phylogenetic diversity based on ~850 bp 28S rDNA fragments showed similar patterns as richness, that is, highest in jungle rubber, intermediate in rainforest, and lowest in the two monoculture plantations. Additionally, we found evidence for phylogenetic clustering of salticids in oil palm, suggesting that habitat filtering is an important factor shaping salticid spider communities in monoculture plantations. Overall, our study offers a comprehensive insight into the mechanisms shaping communities of arthropod top predators in canopies of tropical forest ecosystems and plantations, combining community ecology, environmental variables and phylogenetics across a land-use gradient in tropical Asia.

Jungle rubber facilitates the restoration of degraded soil of an existing rubber plantation

Conversion of forest to rubber plantation is one of the most common land-use change in the humid tropical region. It is one of the fastest expanding farms that lead to various socioenvironmental issues. We investigated the effect of this land-use change on soil physico-chemical properties by surveying different succession stage rubber plantations, including monoculture and a mixture derived by mixing jungle rubber and a reference tropical rainforest. We also assessed the impact on stoichiometric ratios and allocation relationships of soil carbon (C), nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P). Our results demonstrated that conversion of tropical rainforest to rubber monoculture resulted in serious soil degradation, with a lower level of water content, water holding capacities, total porosity, pH, and soil nutrients, and a higher level of soil bulk density. However, after transforming a rubber monoculture into a jungle rubber, the concentrations of soil total C, N, P, Ca, and Mg significantly increased, by 28%, 24%, 23%, 17%, and 39%, respectively. Meanwhile, soil salinity declined by 15%. Jungle rubber also exerted some desirable effects on soil physical properties, such as decreased soil bulk density, increased field capacity and non-porosity by 6%, 2%, and 33%, respectively. Like other tropical regions, soils in the present study areas are mainly under P limitation, but jungle rubber increased soil P turnover and thereby increases P availability. In conclusion, jungle rubber correcting the soil degradation resulted from rubber plantation on tropical forest soil. Given the improvements in soil quality, constructing multiple-strata and multi-species rubber agroforestry (e.g., jungle rubber) can be a promising approach to facilitate the restoration of the existing monoculture rubber plantations.

Deforestation Trajectories on a Development Frontier in the Brazilian Amazon: 35 Years of Settlement Colonization, Policy and Economic Shifts, and Land Accumulation

We examine deforestation processes in Apuí, a deforestation hotspot in Brazil's state of Amazonas and present processes of land-use change on this Amazonian development frontier. Settlement projects attract agents whose clearing reflects land accumulation and the economic importance of deforestation. We used a mixed-method approach in the Rio Juma Settlement to examine colonization and deforestation trajectories for 35 years at three scales of analysis: the entire landscape, cohorts of settlement lots divided by occupation periods, and lots grouped by landholding size per household. All sizes of landholdings are deforesting much more than before, and current political and economic forces favoring the agribusiness sector foreshadow increasing rates of forest clearing for pasture establishment in Apuí. The area cleared per year over the 2013-2018 period in Apuí grew by a percentage more than twice the corresponding percentage for the Brazilian Amazon as a whole. With the national congress and presidential administration signaling impunity for illegal deforestation, wealthy actors, and groups are investing resources in land grabbing and land accumulation, with land speculation being a crucial deforestation factor. This paper is unique in providing causal explanations at the decision-maker's level on how deforestation trajectories are linked to economic and political events (period effects) at the larger scales, adding to the literature by showing that such effects were more important than aging and cohort effects as explanations for deforestation trajectories. Additional research is needed to deepen our understanding of relations between land speculation, illegal possession of public lands, and the expansion of agricultural frontiers in Amazonia.

Biological nitrogen fixation across major biomes in Latin America: Patterns and global change effects

Biological nitrogen fixation (BNF) supports terrestrial primary productivity and plays key roles in mediating human-induced changes in global nitrogen (N) and carbon cycling. However, there are still critical uncertainties in our understanding of the amount of BNF occurring across terrestrial ecosystems, and of how terrestrial BNF will respond to global change. We synthesized BNF data from Latin America, a region reported to sustain some of the highest BNF rates on Earth, but that is underrepresented in previous data syntheses. We used meta-analysis and modeling approaches to estimate BNF rates across Latin America's major biomes and to evaluate the potential effects of increased N deposition and land-use change on these rates. Unmanaged tropical and subtropical moist forests sustained observed and predicted total BNF rates of 10 ± 1 and 14 ± 1 kg N ha^-1 y^-1, respectively, supporting the hypothesis that these forests sustain lower BNF rates than previously thought. Free-living BNF accounted for two-thirds of the total BNF in these forests. Despite an average 30% reduction of free-living BNF in response to experimental N-addition, our results suggest free-living BNF rate responses to current and projected N deposition across tropical and subtropical moist forests are small. In contrast, the conversion of unmanaged ecosystems to crop and pasture lands increased BNF rates across all terrestrial biomes, mostly in savannas, grasslands, and dry forests, increasing BNF rates 2-fold. The information obtained here provides a more comprehensive understanding of BNF patterns for Latin America.

Co-designed Land-use Scenarios and their Implications for Storm Runoff and Streamflow in New England

Landscape and climate changes have the potential to create or exacerbate problems with stormwater management, high flows, and flooding. In New England, four plausible land-use scenarios were co-developed with stakeholders to give insight to the effects on ecosystem services of different trajectories of socio-economic connectedness and natural resource innovation. With respect to water, the service of greatest interest to New England stakeholders is the reduction of stormwater and flooding. To assess the effects of these land-use scenarios, we applied the Soil and Water Assessment Tool to two watersheds under two climates. Differences in land use had minimal effects on the water balance but did affect high flows and the contribution of storm runoff to streamflow. For most scenarios, the effect on high flows was small. For one scenario-envisioned to have global socio-economic connectedness and low levels of natural resource innovation-growth in impervious areas increased the annual maximum daily flow by 10%, similar to the 5-15% increase attributable to climate change. Under modest population growth, land-use decisions have little effect on storm runoff and high flows; however, for the two scenarios characterized by global socio-economic connectedness, differences in choices regarding land use and impervious area have a large impact on the potential for flooding. Results also indicate a potential interaction between climate and land use with a shift to more high flows resulting from heavy rains than from snowmelt. These results can help inform land use and development, especially when combined with assessments of effects on other ecosystem services.

Spatial modeling of land-use change in a rapidly urbanizing landscape in central Iran: integration of remote sensing, CA-Markov, and landscape metrics

In the present paper, land use/land cover (LULC) change was predicted in the Greater Isfahan area (GIA), central Iran. The GIA has been growing rapidly in recent years, and attempts to simulate its spatial expansion would be essential to make appropriate decisions in LULC management plans and achieve sustainable development. Several modeling tools were employed to outline sustainable scenarios for future dynamics of LULCs in the region. Specifically, we explored past LULC changes in the study area from 1996 to 2018 and predicted its future changes for 2030 and 2050. For this purpose, we performed object-oriented and decision tree techniques on Landsat and Sentinel-2 satellite images. The CA-Markov hybrid model was utilized to analyze past trends and predict future LULC changes. LULC changes were quantitatively measured using landscape metrics. According to the results, the majority of changes were related to increasing residential areas and decreasing irrigated lands. The results indicated that residential lands would grow from 27,886.87 ha to 67,093.62 ha over1996-2050 while irrigated lands decrease from 99,799.4 ha to 50,082.16 ha during the same period of time. The confusion matrix of the 2018 LULC map was built using a total of 525 ground truth points and yielded a Kappa coefficient and overall accuracy of 78% and 82%, respectively. Moreover, the confusion matrix constructed base on the Sentinel-2 map, as a reference, to judge the predicted 2018 LULC map with a Kappa coefficient of 88%. The results of this study provide useful insights for sustainable land management. The results of this research also proved the promising capability of remote sensing algorithms, CA-Markov model and landscape metrics future LULC planning in the study area.

Nitrogen sources, processes, and associated impacts of climate and land-use changes in a coastal China watershed: Insights from the INCA-N model

The Integrated Nitrogen CAtchments (INCA-N) model was applied to identify the sources and processes controlling riverine nitrogen (N) export in the Jiulong River watershed, coastal China. Future riverine N exports were simulated under various scenarios of climate and land-use changes. The modeling results showed good agreement between the observed and simulated values of streamflow, N concentrations, and loads. It was revealed that fertilizer application, atmospheric N deposition, and sewage discharges were the main N sources, while the primary N cycling processes included soil nitrification, soil denitrification, and N leaching. Nitrate-N exports were predominantly impacted by climate change, whereas ammonium-N exports were more affected by land-use change. The coupled effects of climate and land-use changes were projected to amplify nitrogen export by 30%, 36%, and 36% for nitrate-N and 32%, 48%, and 71% for ammonium-N during the years for 2030s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively.

How dietary transition changed land use in Mexico

The nutrition transition towards western diets in developing countries occurs at multiple levels, impacting health and society and also the environment. In Mexico, the shift in food consumption and production patterns, particularly in relation to animal source foods (ASF), has changed land use. We studied the consumption and production of ASF and change in agricultural land use in Mexico during the second half of the twentieth century and until 2013; using domestic and international data sources, our findings show an increasing proportion of farmed area devoted to the production of feed crops domestically, and also an increasing demand of farmed feed beyond national borders. We discuss how the intensification of livestock production is associated to major environmental threats and suggest that opportunities are available for sustainable and healthy food options.

Habitat disturbance influences the skin microbiome of a rediscovered neotropical-montane frog

BACKGROUND

The skin microbiome serves as a first line defense against pathogens in vertebrates. In amphibians, it has the potential to protect against the chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatis (Bd), a likely agent of amphibian declines. Alteration of the microbiome associated with unfavorable environmental changes produced by anthropogenic activities may make the host more susceptible to pathogens. Some amphibian species that were thought to be "extinct" have been rediscovered years after population declines in the late 1980s probably due to evolved Bd-resistance and are now threatened by anthropogenic land-use changes. Understanding the effects of habitat disturbance on the host skin microbiome is relevant for understanding the health of these species, along with its susceptibility to pathogens such as Bd. Here, we investigate the influence of habitat alteration on the skin bacterial communities as well as specifically the putative Bd-inhibitory bacterial communities of the montane frog Lithobates vibicarius. This species, after years of not being observed, was rediscovered in small populations inhabiting undisturbed and disturbed landscapes, and with continuous presence of Bd.

RESULTS

We found that cutaneous bacterial communities of tadpoles and adults differed between undisturbed and disturbed habitats. The adults from disturbed habitats exhibited greater community dispersion than those from undisturbed habitats. We observed a higher richness of putative Bd-inhibitory bacterial strains in adults from disturbed habitats than in those from undisturbed habitats, as well as a greater number of these potential protective bacteria with a high relative abundance.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings support the microbial "Anna Karenina principle", in which disturbance is hypothesized to cause greater microbial dispersion in communities, a so-called dysbiosis, which is a response of animal microbiomes to stress factors that decrease the ability of the host or its microbiome to regulate community composition. On the positive side, the high richness and relative abundance of putative Bd-inhibitory bacteria may indicate the development of a defense mechanism that enhances Bd-protection, attributed to a co-occurrence of more than 30-years of host and pathogen in these disturbed habitats. Our results provide important insight into the influence of human-modified landscapes on the skin microbiome and health implications of Bd-survivor species.

Cropland heterogeneity changes on the Northeast China Plain in the last three decades (1980s-2010s)

The Northeast China Plain is one of the major grain-producing areas of China because of its fertile black soil and large fields adapted for agricultural machinery. It has experienced some land-use changes, such as urbanization, deforestation, and wetland reclamation in recent decades. A comprehensive understanding of these changes in terms of the total cropping land and its heterogeneity during this period is important for policymakers. In this study, we used a series of cropland products at the 30-m resolution for the period 1980–2015. The heterogeneity for dominant cropland decreased slowly over the three decades, especially for the large pieces of cropland, showing a general trend of increased cropland homogeneity. The spatial patterns of the averaged heterogeneity index were nearly the same, varying from 0.5 to 0.6, and the most heterogeneous areas were mainly located in some separate counties. Cropland expansion occurred across most of Northeast China, while cropland shrinking occurred only in the northern and eastern sections of Northeast China and around the capital cities, in the flat areas. Also, changes in land use away from cropland mainly occurred in areas with low elevation (50–200 m) and a gentle slope (less than 1 degree). The predominant changes in cropland were gross gain and homogeneity, occurring across most of the area except capital cities and boundary areas. Possible reasons for the total cropland heterogeneity changes were urbanization, restoration of cropland to forest, and some government land-use policies. Moreover, this study evaluates the effectiveness of cropland policies influencing in Northeast China.

Projected Landscape Impacts from Oil and Gas Development Scenarios in the Permian Basin, USA

Projecting landscape impacts from energy development is essential to land management decisions. We forecast landscape alteration resulting from oil and gas well-pad construction across the economically important Permian Basin of Texas and New Mexico, USA, by projecting current landscape trends through 2050. We modeled three landscape-impact scenarios (low, medium, and high) using recent (2008-2017) trends in well-pad construction and energy production. The results of low-, medium-, and high-impact scenarios suggest that ~60,000, ~180,000, and ~430,000 new well pads could be constructed, potentially causing ~1000, ~2800, and ~6700 km² of new direct landscape alteration. Almost two-thirds of all new well pads will be constructed within the geologic boundaries of the Delaware and Midland Basins. This translates into a 40, 120, and 300% increase in direct landscape alteration compared with direct alteration from existing well pads. We found that indirect effects (from edges) could increase by twofold, and that the ratio between indirect and direct alteration could decline by half as alteration intensifies and overlaps with existing alteration. The Chihuahuan Desert occupies the largest portion of the study area, and is projected to experience the largest area of alteration from future well-pad construction in the Permian Basin; the degree of direct alteration could increase by 70, 200, and 500% in this desert region, under low-, medium-, and high-impact scenarios. These scenarios can be used to design proactive conservation strategies to reduce landscape impacts from future oil and gas development.

Effects of historical land-use change in the Mediterranean environment

During the Holocene (last ~11,700 years), societies have continuously modified the landscape of the Mediterranean Basin through changes in land-use, exerting extraordinary pressures onto the environment and adding variability to the climate. Despite its importance to current land management, knowledge of how past land-use practices have impacted the regional climate of the Basin remains largely in the scientific sphere. Thereby, this work aims to inform non-scientific actors and practitioners about the environmental effects of past land-use changes on the hydrologic cycle of the Mediterranean Basin. For this purpose we: i) summarize fundamental observed interactions between land-use change and the environment, identified through a semi-systematic review of 23 scientific case-studies from around the Basin; ii) reflect on the consequences to the Mediterranean environment (atmosphere, biosphere, lithosphere, and hydrosphere) in a synthesized and integrated way; iii) argue the need for taking into account the impact of local land-use practices from a regional-scale perspective; iv) highlight the importance of recognizing historical factors, such as past land-use changes, for developing protective strategies in the rural areas of the Basin. With this work, we provide a synthesized and more integrated understanding of the effects of past and local land-use changes in the regional Mediterranean environment, assisting to bridge the gap between scientific findings, Mediterranean watersheds stakeholders, and regional policy-makers.

Understanding interactions between urban development policies and GHG emissions: A case study in Stockholm Region

Human-induced urban growth and sprawl have implications for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that may not be included in conventional GHG accounting methods. Improved understanding of this issue requires use of interactive, spatial-explicit social-ecological systems modeling. This paper develops a comprehensive approach to modeling GHG emissions from urban developments, considering Stockholm County, Sweden as a case study. GHG projections to 2040 with a social-ecological system model yield overall greater emissions than simple extrapolations in official climate action planning. The most pronounced difference in emissions (39% higher) from energy use single-residence buildings resulting from urban sprawl. And this difference is not accounted for in the simple extrapolations. Scenario results indicate that a zoning policy, restricting urban development in certain areas, can mitigate 72% of the total emission effects of the model-projected urban sprawl. The study outcomes include a decision support interface for communicating results and policy implications with policymakers.

The sensitivity of the carbon sink by coupled carbonate weathering to climate and land-use changes: Sediment records of the biological carbon pump effect in Fuxian Lake, Yunnan, China, during the past century

Recent studies show that the carbon sink attributable to the weathering of carbonate rocks may have been greatly underestimated if the biological carbon pump (BCP) effect in transferring dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) to organic carbon (autochthonous OC) by aquatic photoautotrophs is neglected. The uptake of DIC by aquatic photoautotrophs may reach 0.2 to 0.7 Pg C/a globally, indicating that the carbon sink by the coupled carbonate weathering with aquatic photosynthesis mechanism (CCW) may be an important control in climate change. In order to understand the sensitivity of the CCW carbon sink to changes of climate and land-use, a systematic study of modern trap and 100-year-long core sediments was conducted in Fuxian Lake, (Yunnan, SW China), the second-deepest plateau oligotrophic freshwater lake in China. It was found that (1) the autochthonous OC in the lake sediments was characterized by lower C/N ratios and higher δ¹³C_org. By means of an n-alkanes compound calculation, the proportions of autochthonous OC were determined to be in the range, 60-68% of all OC; (2) increase in the autochthonous OC accumulation rate (OCAR_auto) was accompanied by an increase in the inorganic carbon accumulation rate (ICAR) in both the trap and core sediments. In particular, the post-1950 OCAR_auto was estimated to be about 6.9 times that for the period, 1910-1950; (3) OCAR_auto in core sediments increased significantly with global warming and land-use change, from 1.06 g C m^-2 yr^-1 in 1910 to 21.74 g C m^-2 yr^-1 in 2017. The increasing carbon sink may act as a negative feedback on global warming if the trend holds for all lakes globally. This study is the first to quantify the burial flux of organic carbon generated by the BCP effect in lakes and may contribute to solving the problem of the missing carbon sink in the global carbon cycle.

Grazing mediates soil microbial activity and litter decomposition in salt marshes

Salt marshes contribute to climate change mitigation because of their great capacity to store organic matter (OM) in soils. Most of the research regarding OM turnover in salt marshes in times of global change focuses on effects of rising temperature and accelerated sea-level rise, while effects of land-use change have gained little attention. The present work investigates the mechanisms by which livestock grazing can affect OM decomposition in salt marsh soils. In a grazing exclusion experiment at the mouth of the Yangtze estuary, China, we assessed soil microbial exo-enzyme activity (EEA) to gain insight into the microbial carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) demand. Additionally, we studied the decomposition of plant litter in soil using the Tea Bag Index (TBI), a widely used standardized litter bag assay to fingerprint soil decomposition dynamics. Based on EEAs, grazing markedly reduced microbial C acquisition, whereas microbial N acquisition was strongly increased. These opposing grazing effects were also evident in the decomposition of standardized plant litter: The decomposition rate constant (k) and the stabilization (S) of litter were not inversely related, as would be expected, but instead both were reduced by livestock grazing. Our data suggest that gazing effects on EEAs and litter decomposition can just partly be explained by grazing-driven soil compaction and resulting lower oxygen availability, which has previously been hypothesized as a main pathway by which grazing can reduce microbial activity in wetland soils. Instead, grazing effects on microbial nutrient demand occurs to be an at least equally important control on soil decomposition processes.

Heavy metal pollution in a reforested mangrove ecosystem (Can Gio Biosphere Reserve, Southern Vietnam): Effects of natural and anthropogenic stressors over a thirty-year history

In order to assess the impact of recent industrialization and land-use changes in the Can Gio Mangrove Forest, a Biosphere Reserve in Southern Vietnam, we analyzed heavy metal (HM), total organic carbon (TOC) and total nitrogen (TN) concentrations in a ²¹⁰Pb-dated sediment core, allowing for the environmental reconstruction of the last three decades. C/N ratios were very high (>20) until ~1990, reflecting highly refractory organic matter. Sediment Quality Guidelines (SQG's) violations were observed particularly after the establishment of industries in the area in the late-1990s. Chromium (Cr) and copper (Cu) exceeded the threshold effect levels (TEL); whereas nickel (Ni) was above the probable effects level (PEL), identifying the risk of potential adverse biological effects. Moderate contamination, mainly from cobalt (Co) and lead (Pb), was detected by the contamination factor (CF) index, with Pb levels likely originating from mainly anthropogenic sources, particularly after ~1992, as indicated by elevated enrichment factor (EF) values. A high positive correlation was found between Pb, Cr, Cu and Ni (r ≥ 0.8), while Co, cadmium (Cd) and TOC were highly positive correlated (r = 0.9). We identified evidence of point sources, atmospheric pollution and erosion as the main contributors to enhanced HM levels. However, negative values of the Geo-accumulation index (I-geo) indicated uncontaminated sediments. This discrepancy in pollution indices was likely due to the use of shale averages instead of regional levels as background values, as well as the influence of multiple stressors.