Rehospitalizations among patients in the Medicare fee-for-service program

BACKGROUND

Reducing rates of rehospitalization has attracted attention from policymakers as a way to improve quality of care and reduce costs. However, we have limited information on the frequency and patterns of rehospitalization in the United States to aid in planning the necessary changes.

METHODS

We analyzed Medicare claims data from 2003-2004 to describe the patterns of rehospitalization and the relation of rehospitalization to demographic characteristics of the patients and to characteristics of the hospitals.

RESULTS

Almost one fifth (19.6%) of the 11,855,702 Medicare beneficiaries who had been discharged from a hospital were rehospitalized within 30 days, and 34.0% were rehospitalized within 90 days; 67.1% [corrected] of patients who had been discharged with medical conditions and 51.5% of those who had been discharged after surgical procedures were rehospitalized or died within the first year after discharge. In the case of 50.2% [corrected] of the patients who were rehospitalized within 30 days after a medical discharge to the community, there was no bill for a visit to a physician's office between the time of discharge and rehospitalization. Among patients who were rehospitalized within 30 days after a surgical discharge, 70.5% were rehospitalized for a medical condition. We estimate that about 10% of rehospitalizations were likely to have been planned. The average stay of rehospitalized patients was 0.6 day longer than that of patients in the same diagnosis-related group whose most recent hospitalization had been at least 6 months previously. We estimate that the cost to Medicare of unplanned rehospitalizations in 2004 was $17.4 billion.

CONCLUSIONS

Rehospitalizations among Medicare beneficiaries are prevalent and costly.

Diagnoses and timing of 30-day readmissions after hospitalization for heart failure, acute myocardial infarction, or pneumonia

IMPORTANCE

To better guide strategies intended to reduce high rates of 30-day readmission after hospitalization for heart failure (HF), acute myocardial infarction (MI), or pneumonia, further information is needed about readmission diagnoses, readmission timing, and the relationship of both to patient age, sex, and race.

OBJECTIVE

To examine readmission diagnoses and timing among Medicare beneficiaries readmitted within 30 days after hospitalization for HF, acute MI, or pneumonia.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PATIENTS

We analyzed 2007-2009 Medicare fee-for-service claims data to identify patterns of 30-day readmission by patient demographic characteristics and time after hospitalization for HF, acute MI, or pneumonia. Readmission diagnoses were categorized using an aggregated version of the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services' Condition Categories. Readmission timing was determined by day after discharge.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

We examined the percentage of 30-day readmissions occurring on each day (0-30) after discharge; the most common readmission diagnoses occurring during cumulative periods (days 0-3, 0-7, 0-15, and 0-30) and consecutive periods (days 0-3, 4-7, 8-15, and 16-30) after hospitalization; median time to readmission for common readmission diagnoses; and the relationship between patient demographic characteristics and readmission diagnoses and timing.

RESULTS

From 2007 through 2009, we identified 329,308 30-day readmissions after 1,330,157 HF hospitalizations (24.8% readmitted), 108,992 30-day readmissions after 548,834 acute MI hospitalizations (19.9% readmitted), and 214,239 30-day readmissions after 1,168,624 pneumonia hospitalizations (18.3% readmitted). The proportion of patients readmitted for the same condition was 35.2% after the index HF hospitalization, 10.0% after the index acute MI hospitalization, and 22.4% after the index pneumonia hospitalization. Of all readmissions within 30 days of hospitalization, the majority occurred within 15 days of hospitalization: 61.0%, HF cohort; 67.6%, acute MI cohort; and 62.6%, pneumonia cohort. The diverse spectrum of readmission diagnoses was largely similar in both cumulative and consecutive periods after discharge. Median time to 30-day readmission was 12 days for patients initially hospitalized for HF, 10 days for patients initially hospitalized for acute MI, and 12 days for patients initially hospitalized for pneumonia and was comparable across common readmission diagnoses. Neither readmission diagnoses nor timing substantively varied by age, sex, or race.

CONCLUSION AND RELEVANCE

Among Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries hospitalized for HF, acute MI, or pneumonia, 30-day readmissions were frequent throughout the month after hospitalization and resulted from a similar spectrum of readmission diagnoses regardless of age, sex, race, or time after discharge.

Racial and ethnic estimates of Alzheimer's disease and related dementias in the United States (2015-2060) in adults aged ≥65 years

INTRODUCTION

Alzheimer's disease and related dementias (ADRD) cause a high burden of morbidity and mortality in the United States. Age, race, and ethnicity are important risk factors for ADRD.

METHODS

We estimated the future US burden of ADRD by age, sex, and race and ethnicity by applying subgroup-specific prevalence among Medicare Fee-for-Service beneficiaries aged ≥65 years in 2014 to subgroup-specific population estimates for 2014 and population projection data from the United States Census Bureau for 2015 to 2060.

RESULTS

The burden of ADRD in 2014 was an estimated 5.0 million adults aged ≥65 years or 1.6% of the population, and there are significant disparities in ADRD prevalence among population subgroups defined by race and ethnicity. ADRD burden will double to 3.3% by 2060 when 13.9 million Americans are projected to have the disease.

DISCUSSION

These estimates can be used to guide planning and interventions related to caring for the ADRD population and supporting caregivers.

Thirty-day readmission rates for Medicare beneficiaries by race and site of care

CONTEXT

Understanding whether and why there are racial disparities in readmissions has implications for efforts to reduce readmissions.

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether black patients have higher odds of readmission than white patients and whether these disparities are related to where black patients receive care.

DESIGN

Using national Medicare data, we examined 30-day readmissions after hospitalization for acute myocardial infarction (MI), congestive heart failure (CHF), and pneumonia. We categorized hospitals in the top decile of proportion of black patients as minority-serving. We determined the odds of readmission for black patients compared with white patients at minority-serving vs non-minority-serving hospitals.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Medicare Provider Analysis Review files of more than 3.1 million Medicare fee-for-service recipients who were discharged from US hospitals in 2006-2008.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Risk-adjusted odds of 30-day readmission.

RESULTS

Overall, black patients had higher readmission rates than white patients (24.8% vs 22.6%, odds ratio [OR], 1.13; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.11-1.14; P < .001); patients from minority-serving hospitals had higher readmission rates than those from non-minority-serving hospitals (25.5% vs 22.0%, OR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.20-1.27; P < .001). Among patients with acute MI and using white patients from non-minority-serving hospitals as the reference group (readmission rate 20.9%), black patients from minority-serving hospitals had the highest readmission rate (26.4%; OR, 1.35; 95% CI, 1.28-1.42), while white patients from minority-serving hospitals had a 24.6% readmission rate (OR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.18-1.29) and black patients from non-minority-serving hospitals had a 23.3% readmission rate (OR, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.16-1.23; P < .001 for each); patterns were similar for CHF and pneumonia. The results were unchanged after adjusting for hospital characteristics including markers of caring for poor patients.

CONCLUSION

Among elderly Medicare recipients, black patients were more likely to be readmitted after hospitalization for 3 common conditions, a gap that was related to both race and to the site where care was received.

Relationship between hospital readmission and mortality rates for patients hospitalized with acute myocardial infarction, heart failure, or pneumonia

IMPORTANCE

The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services publicly reports hospital 30-day, all-cause, risk-standardized mortality rates (RSMRs) and 30-day, all-cause, risk-standardized readmission rates (RSRRs) for acute myocardial infarction, heart failure, and pneumonia. The evaluation of hospital performance as measured by RSMRs and RSRRs has not been well characterized.

OBJECTIVE

To determine the relationship between hospital RSMRs and RSRRs overall and within subgroups defined by hospital characteristics.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

We studied Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries discharged with acute myocardial infarction, heart failure, or pneumonia between July 1, 2005, and June 30, 2008 (4506 hospitals for acute myocardial infarction, 4767 hospitals for heart failure, and 4811 hospitals for pneumonia). We quantified the correlation between hospital RSMRs and RSRRs using weighted linear correlation; evaluated correlations in groups defined by hospital characteristics; and determined the proportion of hospitals with better and worse performance on both measures.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Hospital 30-day RSMRs and RSRRs.

RESULTS

Mean RSMRs and RSRRs, respectively, were 16.60% and 19.94% for acute myocardial infarction, 11.17% and 24.56% for heart failure, and 11.64% and 18.22% for pneumonia. The correlations between RSMRs and RSRRs were 0.03 (95% CI, -0.002 to 0.06) for acute myocardial infarction, -0.17 (95% CI, -0.20 to -0.14) for heart failure, and 0.002 (95% CI, -0.03 to 0.03) for pneumonia. The results were similar for subgroups defined by hospital characteristics. Although there was a significant negative linear relationship between RSMRs and RSRRs for heart failure, the shared variance between them was only 2.9% (r2 = 0.029), with the correlation most prominent for hospitals with RSMR <11%.

CONCLUSION AND RELEVANCE

Risk-standardized mortality rates and readmission rates were not associated for patients admitted with an acute myocardial infarction or pneumonia and were only weakly associated, within a certain range, for patients admitted with heart failure.

Racial trends in the use of major procedures among the elderly

BACKGROUND

Differences in the use of major procedures according to patients' race are well known. Whether national and local initiatives to reduce these differences have been successful is unknown.

METHODS

We examined data for men and women enrolled in Medicare from 1992 through 2001 on annual age-standardized rates of receipt of nine surgical procedures previously shown to have disparities in the rates at which they were performed in black patients and in white patients. We also examined data according to hospital-referral region for three of the nine procedures: coronary-artery bypass grafting (CABG), carotid endarterectomy, and total hip replacement.

RESULTS

Nationally, in 1992, the rates of receipt for all the procedures examined were higher among white patients than among black patients. The difference between the rates among whites and blacks increased significantly between 1992 and 2001 for five of the nine procedures, remained unchanged for three procedures, and narrowed significantly for one procedure. We examined rates of CABG, carotid endarterectomy, and total hip replacement in 158 hospital-referral regions (79 hospital-referral regions for black men and white men and 79 for black women and white women) with an adequate number of persons for each procedure. We found that in the early 1990s, whites had higher rates for these procedures than blacks in every hospital-referral region. By 2001, the difference between whites and blacks (both men and women) in the rates of these procedures narrowed significantly in 22 hospital-referral regions, widened significantly in 42, and were not significantly changed in the remaining hospital-referral regions. At the end of the study period, we found no hospital-referral region in which the difference in rates between whites and blacks was eliminated for men or women with regard to any of these three procedures.

CONCLUSIONS

For the decade of the 1990s, we found no evidence, either nationally or locally, that efforts to eliminate racial disparities in the use of high-cost surgical procedures were successful.

Are patients' office visits with physicians getting shorter?

BACKGROUND

Many believe that managed care creates pressure on physicians to increase productivity, see more patients, and spend less time with each patient.

METHODS

We used nationally representative data from the National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey (NAMCS) of the National Center for Health Statistics and the American Medical Association's Socioeconomic Monitoring System (SMS) to examine the length of office visits with physicians from 1989 through 1998. We assessed the trends for visits covered by a managed-care or other prepaid health plan (prepaid visits) and non-prepaid visits for primary and specialty care, for new and established patients, and for common and serious diagnoses.

RESULTS

Between 1989 and 1998 the number of visits to physicians' offices increased significantly from 677 million to 797 million, although the rate of visits per 100 population did not change significantly. The average duration of office visits in 1989 was 16.3 minutes according to the NAMCS and 20.4 minutes according to the SMS survey. According to both sets of data, the average duration of visits increased by between one and two minutes between 1989 and 1998. The duration of the visits increased for both prepaid and nonprepaid visits. Nonprepaid visits were consistently longer than prepaid visits, although the gap declined from 1 minute in 1989 to 0.6 minute in 1998. There was an upward trend in the length of visits for both primary and specialty care and for both new and established patients. The average length of visits remained stable or increased for patients with the most common diagnoses and for those with the most serious diagnoses.

CONCLUSIONS

Contrary to expectations, the growth of managed health care has not been associated with a reduction in the length of office visits. The observed trends cannot be explained by increases in physicians' availability, shifts in the distribution of physicians according to sex, or changes in the complexity of the case mix.

Long-term acute care hospital utilization after critical illness

CONTEXT

Long-term acute care hospitals have emerged as a novel approach for the care of patients recovering from severe acute illness, but the extent and increases in their activity at the national level are unknown.

OBJECTIVE

To examine temporal trends in long-term acute care hospital utilization after an episode of critical illness among fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries aged 65 years or older.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PATIENTS

Retrospective cohort study using the Medicare Provider Analysis and Review files from 1997 to 2006. We included all Medicare hospitalizations involving admission to an intensive care unit of an acute care, nonfederal hospital within the continental United States.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Overall long-term acute care utilization, associated costs, and survival following transfer.

RESULTS

The number of long-term acute care hospitals in the United States increased at a mean rate of 8.8% per year, from 192 in 1997 to 408 in 2006. During that time, the annual number of long-term acute care admissions after critical illness increased from 13,732 to 40,353, with annual costs increasing from $484 million to $1.325 billion. The age-standardized population incidence of long-term acute care utilization after critical illness increased from 38.1 per 100,000 in 1997 to 99.7 per 100,000 in 2006, with greater use among male individuals and black individuals in all periods. Over time, transferred patients had higher numbers of comorbidities (5.0 in 1997-2000 vs 5.8 in 2004-2006, P < .001) and were more likely to receive mechanical ventilation at the long-term acute care hospital (16.4% in 1997-2000 vs 29.8% in 2004-2006, P < .001). One-year mortality after long-term acute care hospital admission was high throughout the study period: 50.7% in 1997-2000 and 52.2% in 2004-2006.

CONCLUSIONS

Long-term acute care hospital utilization after critical illness is common and increasing. Survival among Medicare beneficiaries transferred to long-term acute care after critical illness is poor.

Association Between Hospital Penalty Status Under the Hospital Readmission Reduction Program and Readmission Rates for Target and Nontarget Conditions

IMPORTANCE

Readmission rates declined after announcement of the Hospital Readmission Reduction Program (HRRP), which penalizes hospitals for excess readmissions for acute myocardial infarction (AMI), heart failure (HF), and pneumonia.

OBJECTIVE

To compare trends in readmission rates for target and nontarget conditions, stratified by hospital penalty status.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Retrospective cohort study of Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries older than 64 years discharged between January 1, 2008, and June 30, 2015, from 2214 penalty hospitals and 1283 nonpenalty hospitals. Difference-interrupted time-series models were used to compare trends in readmission rates by condition and penalty status.

EXPOSURE

Hospital penalty status or target condition under the HRRP.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Thirty-day risk adjusted, all-cause unplanned readmission rates for target and nontarget conditions.

RESULTS

The study included 48 137 102 hospitalizations of 20 351 161 Medicare beneficiaries. In January 2008, the mean readmission rates for AMI, HF, pneumonia, and nontarget conditions were 21.9%, 27.5%, 20.1%, and 18.4%, respectively, at hospitals later subject to financial penalties and 18.7%, 24.2%, 17.4%, and 15.7% at hospitals not subject to penalties. Between January 2008 and March 2010, prior to HRRP announcement, readmission rates were stable across hospitals (except AMI at nonpenalty hospitals). Following announcement of HRRP (March 2010), readmission rates for both target and nontarget conditions declined significantly faster for patients at hospitals later subject to financial penalties compared with those at nonpenalized hospitals (for AMI, additional decrease of -1.24 [95% CI, -1.84 to -0.65] percentage points per year relative to nonpenalty discharges; for HF, -1.25 [95% CI, -1.64 to -0.86]; for pneumonia, -1.37 [95% CI, -1.80 to -0.95]; and for nontarget conditions, -0.27 [95% CI, -0.38 to -0.17]; P < .001 for all). For penalty hospitals, readmission rates for target conditions declined significantly faster compared with nontarget conditions (for AMI, additional decline of -0.49 [95% CI, -0.81 to -0.16] percentage points per year relative to nontarget conditions [P = .004]; for HF, -0.90 [95% CI, -1.18 to -0.62; P < .001]; and for pneumonia, -0.57 [95% CI, -0.92 to -0.23; P < .001]). In contrast, among nonpenalty hospitals, readmissions for target conditions declined similarly or more slowly compared with nontarget conditions (for AMI, additional increase of 0.48 [95% CI, 0.01-0.95] percentage points per year [P = .05]; for HF, 0.08 [95% CI, -0.30 to 0.46; P = .67]; for pneumonia, 0.53 [95% CI, 0.13-0.93; P = .01]). After HRRP implementation in October 2012, the rate of change for readmission rates plateaued (P < .05 for all except pneumonia at nonpenalty hospitals), with the greatest relative change observed among hospitals subject to financial penalty.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Medicare fee-for-service patients at hospitals subject to penalties under the HRRP had greater reductions in readmission rates compared with those at nonpenalized hospitals. Changes were greater for target vs nontarget conditions for patients at the penalized hospitals but not at the other hospitals.

Effects of health insurance and race on colorectal cancer treatments and outcomes

OBJECTIVES

We hypothesized that health insurance payer and race might influence the care and outcomes of patients with colorectal cancer.

METHODS

We examined treatments received for all incident cases of colorectal cancer occurring in Florida in 1994 (n = 9551), using state tumor registry data. We also estimated the adjusted risk of death (through 1997), using proportional hazards regression analysis controlling for other predictors of mortality.

RESULTS

Treatments received by patients varied considerably according to their insurance payer. Among non-Medicare patients, those in the following groups had higher adjusted risks of death relative to commercial fee-for-service insurance: commercial HMO (risk ratio [RR] = 1.40; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.18, 1.67; P = .0001), Medicaid (RR = 1.44; 95% CI = 1.06, 1.97; P = .02), and uninsured (RR = 1.41; 95% CI = 1.12, 1.77; P = .003). Non-Hispanic African Americans had higher mortality rates (RR = 1.18; 95% CI = 1.01, 1.37; P = .04) than non-Hispanic Whites.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with colorectal cancer who were uninsured or insured by Medicaid or commercial HMOs had higher mortality rates than patients with commercial fee-for-service insurance. Mortality was also higher among non-Hispanic African American patients.

Overtreatment in the United States

Background

Overtreatment is a cause of preventable harm and waste in health care. Little is known about clinician perspectives on the problem. In this study, physicians were surveyed on the prevalence, causes, and implications of overtreatment.

Methods

2,106 physicians from an online community composed of doctors from the American Medical Association (AMA) masterfile participated in a survey. The survey inquired about the extent of overutilization, as well as causes, solutions, and implications for health care. Main outcome measures included: percentage of unnecessary medical care, most commonly cited reasons of overtreatment, potential solutions, and responses regarding association of profit and overtreatment.

Findings

The response rate was 70.1%. Physicians reported that an interpolated median of 20.6% of overall medical care was unnecessary, including 22.0% of prescription medications, 24.9% of tests, and 11.1% of procedures. The most common cited reasons for overtreatment were fear of malpractice (84.7%), patient pressure/request (59.0%), and difficulty accessing medical records (38.2%). Potential solutions identified were training residents on appropriateness criteria (55.2%), easy access to outside health records (52.0%), and more practice guidelines (51.5%). Most respondents (70.8%) believed that physicians are more likely to perform unnecessary procedures when they profit from them. Most respondents believed that de-emphasizing fee-for-service physician compensation would reduce health care utilization and costs.

Conclusion

From the physician perspective, overtreatment is common. Efforts to address the problem should consider the causes and solutions offered by physicians.

Increases in lumbosacral injections in the Medicare population: 1994 to 2001

STUDY DESIGN

Anecdotal reports and limited data suggest that the use of spinal injections is increasing, despite equivocal evidence about efficacy.

OBJECTIVE

We sought to evaluate trends in lumbosacral injection use for low back pain, including the specialties providing the injections and the costs of care.

SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA

The current literature reports success rates of 18% to 90% for lumbosacral steroid injections, depending on methodology, outcome measures, patient selection, and technique. Preliminary data suggest that spinal injection rates are rising, despite ambiguity in the literature regarding their clinical effectiveness.

METHODS

We used Medicare Physician Part B claims for 1994 through 2001 to examine the use of epidural steroid injections (ESI), facet joint injections, sacroiliac joint injections, and related fluoroscopy. Fee-for-service Medicare enrollees 65 years of age and older were included in this study. We used Current Procedural Technology (CPT) codes to identify the number of procedures performed each year, as well as trends in expenditures, physician specialties involved, and diagnoses assigned.

RESULTS

Between 1994 and 2001, there was a 271% increase in lumbar ESIs, from 553 of 100,000 to 2055 of 100,000 patients, and a 231% increase in facet injections from 80 of 100,000 to 264 of 100,000 patients. The total inflation-adjusted reimbursed costs (professional fees only) for lumbosacral injections increased from $24 million to over $175 million. Also, costs per injection doubled, from $115 to $227 per injection. Forty percent of all ESIs were associated with diagnosis codes for sciatica, radiculopathy, or herniated disc, whereas axial low back pain diagnoses accounted for 36%, and spinal stenosis for 23%.

CONCLUSION

Lumbosacral injections increased dramatically in the Medicare population from 1994 to 2001. Less than half were performed for sciatica or radiculopathy, where the greatest evidence of benefit is available. These findings suggest a lack of consensus regarding the indications for ESIs and are cause for concern given the large expenditures for these procedures.

Association of Pioneer Accountable Care Organizations vs traditional Medicare fee for service with spending, utilization, and patient experience

IMPORTANCE

The Pioneer Accountable Care Organization (ACO) Model aims to drive health care organizations to reduce expenditures while improving quality for fee-for-service (FFS) Medicare beneficiaries.

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether FFS beneficiaries aligned with Pioneer ACOs had smaller increases in spending and utilization than other FFS beneficiaries while retaining similar levels of care satisfaction in the first 2 years of the Pioneer ACO Model.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Participants were FFS Medicare beneficiaries aligned with 32 ACOs (n = 675,712 in 2012; n = 806,258 in 2013) and a comparison group of alignment-eligible beneficiaries in the same markets (n = 13,203,694 in 2012; n = 12,134,154 in 2013). Analyses comprised difference-in-differences multivariable regression with Oaxaca-Blinder reweighting to model expenditure and utilization outcomes over a 2-year performance period (2012-2013) and 2-year baseline period (2010-2011) as well as adjusted analyses of Consumer Assessment of Healthcare Providers & Systems (CAHPS) survey responses among random samples of beneficiaries in Pioneer ACOs (n = 13,097), FFS (n = 116,255), or Medicare Advantage (n = 203,736) for 2012 care.

EXPOSURES

Beneficiary alignment with a Pioneer ACO in 2012 or 2013.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Medicare spending, utilization, and CAHPS domain scores.

RESULTS

Total spending for beneficiaries aligned with Pioneer ACOs in 2012 or 2013 increased from baseline to a lesser degree relative to comparison populations. Differential changes in spending were approximately -$35.62 (95% CI, -$40.12 to -$31.12) per-beneficiary-per-month (PBPM) in 2012 and -$11.18 (95% CI, -$15.84 to -$6.51) PBPM in 2013, which amounted to aggregate reductions in increases of approximately -$280 (95% CI, -$315 to -$244) million in 2012 and -$105 (95% CI, -$148 to -$61) million in 2013. Inpatient spending showed the largest differential change of any spending category (-$14.40 [95% CI, -$17.31 to -$11.49] PBPM in 2012; -$6.46 [95% CI, -$9.26 to -$3.66] PBPM in 2013). Changes in utilization of physician services, emergency department, and postacute care followed a similar pattern. Compared with other Medicare beneficiaries, ACO-aligned beneficiaries reported higher mean scores for timely care (77.2 [ACO] vs 71.2 [FFS] vs 72.7 [MA]) and for clinician communication (91.9 [ACO] vs 88.3 [FFS] vs 88.7 [MA]).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In the first 2 years of the Pioneer ACO Model, beneficiaries aligned with Pioneer ACOs, as compared with general Medicare FFS beneficiaries, exhibited smaller increases in total Medicare expenditures and differential reductions in utilization of different health services, with little difference in patient experience.

Association of public reporting for percutaneous coronary intervention with utilization and outcomes among Medicare beneficiaries with acute myocardial infarction

CONTEXT

Public reporting of patient outcomes is an important tool to improve quality of care, but some observers worry that such efforts will lead clinicians to avoid high-risk patients.

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether public reporting for percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) is associated with lower rates of PCI for patients with acute myocardial infarction (MI) or with higher mortality rates in this population.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PATIENTS

Retrospective observational study conducted using data from fee-for-service Medicare patients (49,660 from reporting states and 48,142 from nonreporting states) admitted with acute MI to US acute care hospitals between 2002 and 2010. Logistic regression was used to compare PCI and mortality rates between reporting states (New York, Massachusetts, and Pennsylvania) and regional nonreporting states (Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Maryland, and Delaware). Changes in PCI rates over time in Massachusetts compared with nonreporting states were also examined.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Risk-adjusted PCI and mortality rates.

RESULTS

In 2010, patients with acute MI were less likely to receive PCI in public reporting states than in nonreporting states (unadjusted rates, 37.7% vs 42.7%, respectively; risk-adjusted odds ratio [OR], 0.82 [95% CI, 0.71-0.93]; P = .003). Differences were greatest among the 6708 patients with ST-segment elevation MI (61.8% vs 68.0%; OR, 0.73 [95% CI, 0.59-0.89]; P = .002) and the 2194 patients with cardiogenic shock or cardiac arrest (41.5% vs 46.7%; OR, 0.79 [95% CI, 0.64-0.98]; P = .03). There were no differences in overall mortality among patients with acute MI in reporting vs nonreporting states. In Massachusetts, odds of PCI for acute MI were comparable with odds in nonreporting states prior to public reporting (40.6% vs 41.8%; OR, 1.00 [95% CI, 0.71-1.41]). However, after implementation of public reporting, odds of undergoing PCI in Massachusetts decreased compared with nonreporting states (41.1% vs 45.6%; OR, 0.81 [95% CI, 0.47-1.38]; P = .03 for difference in differences). Differences were most pronounced for the 6081 patients with cardiogenic shock or cardiac arrest (prereporting: 44.2% vs 36.6%; OR, 1.40 [95% CI, 0.85-2.32]; postreporting: 43.9% vs 44.8%; OR, 0.92 [95% CI, 0.38-2.22]; P = .03 for difference in differences).

CONCLUSIONS

Among Medicare beneficiaries with acute MI, the use of PCI was lower for patients treated in 3 states with public reporting of PCI outcomes compared with patients treated in 7 regional control states without public reporting. However, there was no difference in overall acute MI mortality between states with and without public reporting.

Contribution of preventable acute care spending to total spending for high-cost Medicare patients

IMPORTANCE

A small proportion of patients account for the majority of US health care spending, and understanding patterns of spending among this cohort is critical to reducing health care costs. The degree to which preventable acute care services account for spending among these patients is largely unknown.

OBJECTIVE

To quantify preventable acute care services among high-cost Medicare patients.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

We summed standardized costs for each inpatient and outpatient service contained in standard 5% Medicare files from 2009 and 2010 across the year for each patient in our sample, and defined those in the top decile of spending in 2010 as high-cost patients and those in the top decile in both 2009 and 2010 as persistently high-cost patients. We used standard algorithms to identify potentially preventable emergency department (ED) visits and acute care inpatient hospitalizations. A total of 1,114,469 Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries aged 65 years or older were included.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Proportion of acute care hospital and ED costs deemed preventable among high-cost patients.

RESULTS

The 10% of Medicare patients in the high-cost group were older, more often male, more often black, and had more comorbid illnesses than non-high-cost patients. In 2010, 32.9% (95% CI, 32.9%-32.9%) of total ED costs were incurred by high-cost patients. Based on validated algorithms, 41.0% (95% CI, 40.9%-41.0%) of these costs among high-cost patients were potentially preventable compared with 42.6% (95% CI, 42.6%-42.6%) among non-high-cost patients. High-cost patients accounted for 79.0% (95% CI, 79.0%-79.0%) of inpatient costs, 9.6% (95% CI, 9.6%-9.6%) of which were due to preventable hospitalizations; 16.8% (95% CI, 16.8%-16.8%) of costs within the non-high-cost group were due to preventable hospitalizations. Comparable proportions of ED spending (43.3%; 95% CI, 43.3%-43.3%) and inpatient spending (13.5%; 95% CI, 13.5%-13.5%) were preventable among persistently high-cost patients. Regions with high primary care physician supply had higher preventable spending for high-cost patients.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Among a sample of patients in the top decile of Medicare spending in 2010, only a small percentage of costs appeared to be related to preventable ED visits and hospitalizations. The ability to lower costs for these patients through better outpatient care may be limited.

Racial disparity in influenza vaccination: does managed care narrow the gap between African Americans and whites?

CONTEXT

Substantial racial disparities exist in use of some health services. Whether managed care could reduce racial disparities in the use of preventive services is not known.

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether the magnitude of racial disparity in influenza vaccination is smaller among managed care enrollees than among those with fee-for-service insurance.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

The 1996 Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey of a US cohort of 13 674 African American and white Medicare beneficiaries with managed care and fee-for-service insurance.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Percentage of respondents (adjusted for sociodemographic characteristics, clinical comorbid conditions, and care-seeking attitudes) who received influenza vaccination and magnitude of racial disparity in influenza vaccination, compared among those with managed care and fee-for-service insurance.

RESULTS

Eight percent of the beneficiaries were African American and 11% were enrolled in managed care. Overall, 65.8% received influenza vaccination. Whites were substantially more likely to be vaccinated than African Americans (67.7% vs 46.1%; absolute disparity, 21.6%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 18.2%-25.0%). Managed care enrollees were more likely than those with fee-for-service insurance to receive influenza vaccination (71.2% vs 65.4%; difference, 5.8%; 95% CI, 3.6%-8.3%). The adjusted racial disparity in fee-for-service was 24.9% (95% CI, 19.6%-30.1%) and in managed care was 18.6% (95% CI, 9.8%-27.4%). These adjusted racial disparities were both statistically significant, but the absolute percentage point difference in racial disparity between the 2 insurance groups (6.3%; 95% CI, -4.6% to 17.2%) was not.

CONCLUSION

Managed care is associated with higher rates of influenza vaccination for both whites and African Americans, but racial disparity in vaccination is not reduced in managed care. Our results suggest that additional efforts are needed to adequately address this disparity.

Stage at diagnosis and treatment patterns among older women with breast cancer: an HMO and fee-for-service comparison

CONTEXT

Few studies have compared patterns of care in health maintenance organization (HMO) and fee-for-service (FFS) settings.

OBJECTIVE

To examine breast cancer stage at diagnosis and, for those at an early stage, treatment patterns for elderly women in HMO and FFS settings.

DESIGN

Cancer registry data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program linked to Medicare enrollment records.

SETTINGS AND PARTICIPANTS

Women aged 65 years or older residing in 11 geographic areas who were newly diagnosed as having breast cancer between 1988 and 1993.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Standardized percentage of cases diagnosed at late stages for HMO vs FFS; standardized percentage of early-stage cases undergoing initial treatment with breast-conserving surgery (BCS); and, among BCS cases, standardized percentage receiving adjuvant radiation therapy. Standardization was achieved through logistic regression, controlling for patient demographics, cancer history, county of residence, year of diagnosis, and educational attainment at the census tract level. Analyses of treatment patterns were controlled for stage at diagnosis and tumor size.

RESULTS

The HMO enrollees were less likely to have breast cancer diagnosed at late stages than FFS patients (HMO, 7.6%; FFS, 10.8%; difference, -3.2% [95% confidence interval (CI), -4.2% to -2.2 %]). Among early-stage cases, the percentages undergoing BCS were similar in HMO and FFS settings overall (HMO, 38.4%; FFS, 36.8%; difference, 1.6% [95% CI, 0.0%-3.2%]); percentages varied markedly at the individual plan level. Among women undergoing BCS, HMO enrollees were significantly more likely to receive radiation therapy but, again, results varied by plan (HMO, 69.0%; FFS, 63.7%; difference, 5.3% [95% CI, 2.9%-7.7%]). In general, use of BCS and radiation therapy was substantially higher than that found in an earlier study examining cases diagnosed between 1985 and 1989.

CONCLUSIONS

Treatment of early-stage breast cancer in HMOs often differs from local FFS patterns, but not in a consistent way. During the period of our study, elderly HMO enrollees did not appear to have systematic access problems with adjuvant radiation therapy following BCS compared with women in an FFS setting.

Primary care service areas: a new tool for the evaluation of primary care services

OBJECTIVE

To develop and characterize utilization-based service areas for the United States which reflect the travel of Medicare beneficiaries to primary care clinicians.

DATA SOURCE/STUDY SETTING

The 1996-1997 Part B and 1996 Outpatient File primary care claims for fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries aged 65 and older. The 1995 Medicaid claims from six states (1995) and commercial claims from Blue Cross Blue Shield of Michigan (1996).

STUDY DESIGN

A patient origin study was conducted to assign 1999 U.S. zip codes to Primary Care Service Areas on the basis of the plurality of beneficiaries' preference for primary care clinicians. Adjustments were made to establish geographic contiguity and minimum population and service localization. Generality of areas to younger populations was tested with Medicaid and commercial claims.

DATA COLLECTION/EXTRACTION METHODS

Part B primary care claims were selected on the basis of provider specialty, place of service, and CPT code. Selection of Outpatient File claims used provider number, type of facility/service, and revenue center codes.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

The study delineated 6,102 Primary Care Service Areas with a median population of 17,276 (range 1,005-1,253,240). Overall, 63 percent of the Medicare beneficiaries sought the plurality of their primary care from within area clinicians. Service localization compared to Medicaid (six states) and commercial primary care utilization (Michigan) was comparable but not identical.

CONCLUSIONS

Primary Care Service Areas are a new tool for the measurement of primary care resources, utilization, and associated outcomes. Policymakers at all jurisdictional levels as well as researchers will have a standardized system of geographical units through which to assess access to, supply, use, organization, and financing of primary care services.

Utilization of anesthesia services during outpatient endoscopies and colonoscopies and associated spending in 2003-2009

CONTEXT

The frequency with which anesthesiologists or nurse anesthetists provide sedation for gastrointestinal endoscopies, especially for low-risk patients, is poorly understood and controversial.

OBJECTIVE

To quantify temporal comparisons and regional variation in the use of and payment for gastroenterology anesthesia services.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PATIENTS

A retrospective analysis of claims data for a 5% representative sample of Medicare fee-for-service patients (1.1 million adults) and a sample of 5.5 million commercially insured patients between 2003 and 2009.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Total number of upper gastrointestinal endoscopies and colonoscopies, proportion of gastroenterology procedures with associated anesthesia claims, payments for gastroenterology anesthesia services, and proportion of services and spending for gastroenterology anesthesia delivered to low-risk patients (American Society of Anesthesiologists physical status class 1 or 2).

RESULTS

The number of gastroenterology procedures per million enrollees remained largely unchanged in Medicare patients (mean, 136,718 procedures), but increased more than 50% in commercially insured patients (from 33,599 in 2003 to 50,816 in 2009). In both populations, the proportion of procedures using anesthesia services increased from approximately 14% in 2003 to more than 30% in 2009, and more than two-thirds of anesthesia services were delivered to low-risk patients. There was substantial regional variation in the proportion of procedures using anesthesia services in both populations (ranging from 13% in the West to 59% in the Northeast). Payments for gastroenterology anesthesia services doubled in Medicare patients and quadrupled in commercially insured patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Between 2003 and 2009, utilization of anesthesia services during gastroenterology procedures increased substantially. Anesthesia services are predominantly used in low-risk patients and show considerable regional variation.

Thirty-day hospital readmission following discharge from postacute rehabilitation in fee-for-service Medicare patients

IMPORTANCE

The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services recently identified 30-day readmission after discharge from inpatient rehabilitation facilities as a national quality indicator. Research is needed to determine the rates and factors related to readmission in this patient population.

OBJECTIVE

To determine 30-day readmission rates and factors related to readmission for patients receiving postacute inpatient rehabilitation.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PATIENTS

Retrospective cohort study of records for 736,536 Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries (mean age, 78.0 [SD, 7.3] years) discharged from 1365 inpatient rehabilitation facilities to the community in 2006 through 2011. Sixty-three percent of patients were women, and 85.1% were non-Hispanic white.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Thirty-day readmission rates for the 6 largest diagnostic impairment categories receiving inpatient rehabilitation. These included stroke, lower extremity fracture, lower extremity joint replacement, debility, neurologic disorders, and brain dysfunction.

RESULTS

Mean rehabilitation length of stay was 12.4 (SD, 5.3) days. The overall 30-day readmission rate was 11.8% (95% CI, 11.7%-11.8%). Rates ranged from 5.8% (95% CI, 5.8%-5.9%) for patients with lower extremity joint replacement to 18.8% (95% CI, 18.8%-18.9%). for patients with debility. Rates were highest in men (13.0% [ 95% CI, 12.8%-13.1%], vs 11.0% [95% CI, 11.0%-11.1%] in women), non-Hispanic blacks (13.8% [95% CI, 13.5%-14.1%], vs 11.5% [95% CI, 11.5%-11.6%] in whites, 12.5% [95% CI, 12.1%-12.8%] in Hispanics, and 11.9% [95% CI, 11.4%-12.4%] in other races/ethnicities), beneficiaries with dual eligibility (15.1% [95% CI, 14.9%-15.4%], vs 11.1% [95% CI, 11.0%-11.2%] for no dual eligibility), and in patients with tier 1 comorbidities (25.6% [95% CI, 24.9%-26.3%], vs 18.9% [95% CI, 18.5%-19.3%] for tier 2, 15.1% [95% CI, 14.9%-15.3%] for tier 3, and 9.9% [95% CI, 9.9%-10.0%] for no tier comorbidities). Higher motor and cognitive functional status were associated with lower hospital readmission rates across the 6 impairment categories. Adjusted readmission rates by state ranged from 9.2% to 13.6%. Approximately 50% of patients rehospitalized within the 30-day period were readmitted within 11 days of discharge. Medicare Severity Diagnosis-Related Group codes for heart failure, urinary tract infection, pneumonia, septicemia, nutritional and metabolic disorders, esophagitis, gastroenteritis, and digestive disorders were common reasons for readmission.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Among postacute rehabilitation facilities providing services to Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries, 30-day readmission rates ranged from 5.8% to 18.8% for selected impairment groups. Further research is needed to understand the causes of readmission.

The Medicare-HMO revolving door--the healthy go in and the sick go out

BACKGROUND

Enrollment in Medicare health maintenance organizations (HMOs) is encouraged because of the expectation that HMOs can help slow the growth of Medicare costs. However, Medicare HMOs, which are paid 95 percent of average yearly fee-for-service Medicare expenditures, are increasingly believed to benefit from the selective enrollment of healthier Medicare recipients. Furthermore, whether sicker patients are more likely to disenroll from Medicare HMOs, thus raising average fee-for-service costs, is not clear.

METHODS

We used Medicare enrollment and inpatient billing records for southern Florida from 1990 through 1993 to examine differences in the use of inpatient medical services by 375,406 beneficiaries in the Medicare fee-for-service system, 48,380 HMO enrollees before enrollment, and 23,870 HMO enrollees after disenrollment. We also determined whether these differences were related to demographic characteristics and whether the pattern of use after disenrollment persisted over time.

RESULTS

The rate of use of inpatient services in the HMO-enrollment group during the year before enrollment was 66 percent of the rate in the fee-for-service group, whereas the rate in the HMO-disenrollment group after disenrollment was 180 percent of that in the fee-for-service group. Beneficiaries who disenrolled from HMOs re-enrolled at about the time that their level of use dropped to that in the fee-for-service group.

CONCLUSIONS

These data show marked selection biases with respect to HMO enrollment and disenrollment. These biases undermine the effectiveness of the Medicare managed-care system and highlight the need for longitudinal and population-based studies.

Changes in Postacute Care in the Medicare Shared Savings Program

Importance

Postacute care is thought to be a major source of wasteful spending. The extent to which accountable care organizations (ACOs) can limit postacute care spending has implications for the importance and design of other payment models that include postacute care.

Objective

To assess changes in postacute care spending and use of postacute care associated with provider participation as ACOs in the Medicare Shared Savings Program (MSSP) and the pathways by which they occurred.

Design, Setting, and Participants

With the use of fee-for-service Medicare claims from a random 20% sample of beneficiaries with 25 544 650 patient-years, 8 395 426 hospital admissions, and 1 595 352 stays in skilled nursing facilities (SNFs) from January 1, 2009, to December 31, 2014, difference-in-difference comparisons of beneficiaries served by ACOs with beneficiaries served by local non-ACO health care professionals (control group) were performed before vs after entry into the MSSP. Differential changes were estimated separately for cohorts of ACOs entering the MSSP in 2012, 2013, and 2014.

Exposures

Patient attribution to an ACO in the MSSP.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Postacute spending, discharge to a facility, length of SNF stays, readmissions, use of highly rated SNFs, and mortality, adjusted for patient characteristics.

Results

For the 2012 cohort of 114 ACOs, participation in the MSSP was associated with an overall reduction in postacute spending (differential change in 2014 for ACOs vs control group, -$106 per beneficiary [95% CI, -$176 to -$35], or -9.0% of the precontract unadjusted mean of $1172; P = .003) that was driven by differential reductions in acute inpatient care, discharges to facilities rather than home (-0.6 percentage points [95% CI, -1.1 to 0.0], or -2.7% of the unadjusted precontract mean of 22.6%; P = .03), and length of SNF stays (-0.60 days per stay [95% CI, -0.99 to -0.22], or -2.2% of the precontract unadjusted mean of 27.07 days; P = .002). Reductions in use of SNFs and length of stay were largely due to within-hospital or within-SNF changes in care specifically for ACO patients. Participation in the MSSP was associated with smaller significant reductions in SNF spending in 2014 for the 2013 ACO cohort (-$27 per beneficiary [95% CI, -$49 to -$6], or -3.3% of the precontract unadjusted mean of $813; P = .01) but not in the 2013 or 2014 cohort's first year of participation (-$13 per beneficiary [95% CI, -$33 to $6]; P = .19; and $4 per beneficiary [95% CI, -$15 to $24]; P = .66). Estimates were similar for ACOs with and without financial ties to hospitals. Participation in the MSSP was not associated with significant changes in 30-day readmissions, use of highly rated SNFs, or mortality.

Conclusions and Relevance

Participation in the MSSP has been associated with significant reductions in postacute spending without ostensible deterioration in quality of care. Spending reductions were more consistent with clinicians working within hospitals and SNFs to influence care for ACO patients than with hospital-wide initiatives by ACOs or use of preferred SNFs.

Trends in aortic valve replacement for elderly patients in the United States, 1999-2011

IMPORTANCE

There is a need to describe contemporary outcomes of surgical aortic valve replacement (AVR) as the population ages and transcatheter options emerge.

OBJECTIVE

To assess procedure rates and outcomes of surgical AVR over time.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

A serial cross-sectional cohort study of 82,755,924 Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries undergoing AVR in the United States between 1999 and 2011.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Procedure rates for surgical AVR alone and with coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery, 30-day and 1-year mortality, and 30-day readmission rates.

RESULTS

The AVR procedure rate increased by 19 (95% CI, 19-20) procedures per 100,000 person-years over the 12-year period (P<.001), with an age-, sex-, and race-adjusted rate increase of 1.6% (95% CI, 1.0%-1.8%) per year. Mortality decreased at 30 days (absolute decrease, 3.4%; 95% CI, 3.0%-3.8%; adjusted annual decrease, 4.1%; 95% CI, 3.7%- 4.4%) per year and at 1 year (absolute decrease, 2.6%; 95% CI, 2.1%-3.2%; adjusted annual decrease, 2.5%; 95% CI, 2.3%-2.8%). Thirty-day all-cause readmission also decreased by 1.1% (95% CI, 0.9%-1.3%) per year. Aortic valve replacement with CABG surgery decreased, women and black patients had lower procedure and higher mortality rates, and mechanical prosethetic implants decreased, but 23.9% of patients 85 years and older continued to receive a mechanical prosthesis in 2011.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Between 1999 and 2011, the rate of surgical AVR for elderly patients in the United States increased and outcomes improved substantially. Medicare data preclude the identification of the causes of the findings and the trends in procedure rates and outcomes cannot be causally linked. Nevertheless, the findings may be a useful benchmark for outcomes with surgical AVR for older patients eligible for surgery considering newer transcatheter treatments.

Recent declines in hospitalizations for acute myocardial infarction for Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries: progress and continuing challenges

BACKGROUND

Amid recent efforts to reduce cardiovascular risk, whether rates of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in the United States have declined for elderly patients is unknown.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Medicare fee-for-service patients hospitalized in the United States with a principal discharge diagnosis of AMI were identified through the use of data from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services from 2002 to 2007, a time period selected to reduce changes arising from the new definition of AMI. The Medicare beneficiary denominator file was used to determine the population at risk. AMI hospitalization rates were calculated annually per 100,000 beneficiary-years with Poisson regression analysis and stratified according to age, sex, and race. The annual AMI hospitalization rate in the fee-for-service Medicare population fell from 1131 per 100,000 beneficiary-years in 2002 to 866 in 2007, a relative 23.4% decline. After adjustment for age, sex, and race, the AMI hospitalization rate declined by 5.8%/y. From 2002 to 2007, white men experienced a 24.4% decrease in AMI hospitalizations, whereas black men experienced a smaller decline (18.0%; P<0.001 for interaction). Black women had a smaller decline in AMI hospitalization rate compared with white women (18.4% versus 23.3%, respectively; P<0.001 for interaction).

CONCLUSIONS

AMI hospitalization rates fell markedly in the Medicare fee-for-service population between 2002 and 2007. However, black men and women appeared to have had a slower rate of decline compared with their white counterparts.