Can Bangladesh produce enough cereals to meet future demand?

Bangladesh faces huge challenges in achieving food security due to its high population, diet changes, and limited room for expanding cropland and cropping intensity. The objective of this study is to assess the degree to which Bangladesh can be self-sufficient in terms of domestic maize, rice and wheat production by the years 2030 and 2050 by closing the existing gap (Yg) between yield potential (Yp) and actual farm yield (Ya), accounting for possible changes in cropland area. Yield potential and yield gaps were calculated for the three crops using well-validated crop models and site-specific weather, management and soil data, and upscaled to the whole country. We assessed potential grain production in the years 2030 and 2050 for six land use change scenarios (general decrease in arable land; declining ground water tables in the north; cropping of fallow areas in the south; effect of sea level rise; increased cropping intensity; and larger share of cash crops) and three levels of Yg closure (1: no yield increase; 2: Yg closure at a level equivalent to 50% (50% Yg closure); 3: Yg closure to a level of 85% of Yp (irrigated crops) and 80% of water-limited yield potential or Yw (rainfed crops) (full Yg closure)). In addition, changes in demand with low and high population growth rates, and substitution of rice by maize in future diets were also examined. Total aggregated demand of the three cereals (in milled rice equivalents) in 2030 and 2050, based on the UN median population variant, is projected to be 21 and 24% higher than in 2010. Current Yg represent 50% (irrigated rice), 48-63% (rainfed rice), 49% (irrigated wheat), 40% (rainfed wheat), 46% (irrigated maize), and 44% (rainfed maize) of their Yp or Yw. With 50% Yg closure and for various land use changes, self-sufficiency ratio will be > 1 for rice in 2030 and about one in 2050 but well below one for maize and wheat in both 2030 and 2050. With full Yg closure, self-sufficiency ratios will be well above one for rice and all three cereals jointly but below one for maize and wheat for all scenarios, except for the scenario with drastic decrease in boro rice area to allow for area expansion for cash crops. Full Yg closure of all cereals is needed to compensate for area decreases and demand increases, and then even some maize and large amounts of wheat imports will be required to satisfy demand in future. The results of this analysis have important implications for Bangladesh and other countries with high population growth rate, shrinking arable land due to rapid urbanization, and highly vulnerable to climate change.

Abstract P6-03-03: Not presented

This abstract was not presented at the symposium.

Improving household air, drinking water and hygiene in rural Peru: a community-randomized-controlled trial of an integrated environmental home-based intervention package to improve child health

Background

Diarrhoea and acute lower respiratory infections are leading causes of childhood morbidity and mortality, which can be prevented by simple low-cost interventions. Integrated strategies can provide additional benefits by addressing multiple health burdens simultaneously.

Methods

We conducted a community-randomized-controlled trial in 51 rural communities in Peru to evaluate whether an environmental home-based intervention package, consisting of improved solid-fuel stoves, kitchen sinks, solar disinfection of drinking water and hygiene promotion, reduces lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal disease and improves growth in children younger than 36 months. The attention control group received an early child stimulation programme.

Results

We recorded 24 647 child-days of observation from 250 households in the intervention and 253 in the attention control group during 12-month follow-up. Mean diarrhoea incidence was 2.8 episodes per child-year in the intervention compared with 3.1 episodes in the control arm. This corresponds to a relative rate of 0.78 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.58-1.05] for diarrhoea incidence and an odds ratio of 0.71 (95% CI: 0.47-1.06) for diarrhoea prevalence. No effects on acute lower respiratory infections or children's growth rates were observed.

Conclusions

Combined home-based environmental interventions slightly reduced childhood diarrhoea, but the confidence interval included unity. Effects on growth and respiratory outcomes were not observed, despite high user compliance of the interventions. The absent effect on respiratory health might be due to insufficient household air quality improvements of the improved stoves and additional time needed to achieve attitudinal and behaviour change when providing composite interventions.

Gratings for synchrotron and FEL beamlines: a project for the manufacture of ultra-precise gratings at Helmholtz Zentrum Berlin

Blazed gratings are of dedicated interest for the monochromatization of synchrotron radiation when a high photon flux is required, such as, for example, in resonant inelastic X-ray scattering experiments or when the use of laminar gratings is excluded due to too high flux densities and expected damage, for example at free-electron laser beamlines. Their availability became a bottleneck since the decommissioning of the grating manufacture facility at Carl Zeiss in Oberkochen. To resolve this situation a new technological laboratory was established at the Helmholtz Zentrum Berlin, including instrumentation from Carl Zeiss. Besides the upgraded ZEISS equipment, an advanced grating production line has been developed, including a new ultra-precise ruling machine, ion etching technology as well as laser interference lithography. While the old ZEISS ruling machine GTM-6 allows ruling for a grating length up to 170 mm, the new GTM-24 will have the capacity for 600 mm (24 inch) gratings with groove densities between 50 lines mm-1 and 1200 lines mm-1. A new ion etching machine with a scanning radiofrequency excited ion beam (HF) source allows gratings to be etched into substrates of up to 500 mm length. For a final at-wavelength characterization, a new reflectometer at a new Optics beamline at the BESSY-II storage ring is under operation. This paper reports on the status of the grating fabrication, the measured quality of fabricated items by ex situ and in situ metrology, and future development goals.

Infection-related complications during treatment for childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia

Background

Comprehensive studies on neutropenia and infection-related complications in patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) are lacking.

Patients and methods

We evaluated infection-related complications that were grade ≥3 on National Cancer Institute's Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events (version 3.0) and their risk factors in 409 children with newly diagnosed ALL throughout the treatment period.

Results

Of the 2420 infection episodes, febrile neutropenia and clinically or microbiologically documented infection were seen in 1107 and 1313 episodes, respectively. Among documented infection episodes, upper respiratory tract was the most common site (n = 389), followed by ear (n = 151), bloodstream (n = 147), and gastrointestinal tract (n = 145) infections. These episodes were more common during intensified therapy phases such as remission induction and reinduction, but respiratory and ear infections, presumably viral in origin, also occurred during continuation phases. The 3-year cumulative incidence of infection-related death was low (1.0±0.9%, n = 4), including 2 from Bacillus cereus bacteremia. There was no fungal infection-related mortality. Age 1-9.9 years at diagnosis was associated with febrile neutropenia (P = 0.002) during induction and febrile neutropenia and documented infection (both P < 0.001) during later continuation. White race was associated with documented infection (P = 0.034) during induction. Compared with low-risk patients, standard- and high-risk patients received more intensive therapy during early continuation and had higher incidences of febrile neutropenia (P < 0.001) and documented infections (P = 0.043). Furthermore, poor neutrophil surge after dexamethasone pulses during continuation, which can reflect the poor bone marrow reserve, was associated with infections (P < 0.001).

Conclusions

The incidence of infection-related death was low. However, young age, white race, intensive chemotherapy, and lack of neutrophil surge after dexamethasone treatment were associated with infection-related complications. Close monitoring for prompt administration of antibiotics and modification of chemotherapy should be considered in these patients.

Diseases due to unhealthy environments: an updated estimate of the global burden of disease attributable to environmental determinants of health

Background

The update of the global burden of disease attributable to the environment is presented. The study focuses on modifiable risks to show the potential health impact from environmental interventions.

Methods

Systematic literature reviews on 133 diseases and injuries were performed. Comparative risk assessments were complemented by more limited epidemiological estimates, expert opinion and information on disease transmission pathways. Population attributable fractions were used to calculate global deaths and global disease burden from environmental risks.

Results

Twenty-three percent (95% CI: 13-34%) of global deaths and 22% (95% CI: 13-32%) of global disability adjusted life years (DALYs) were attributable to environmental risks in 2012. Sixty-eight percent of deaths and 56% of DALYs could be estimated with comparative risk assessment methods. The global disease burden attributable to the environment is now dominated by noncommunicable diseases. Susceptible ages are children under five and adults between 50 and 75 years. Country level data are presented.

Conclusions

Nearly a quarter of global disease burden could be prevented by reducing environmental risks. This analysis confirms that eliminating hazards and reducing environmental risks will greatly benefit our health, will contribute to attaining the recently agreed Sustainable Development Goals and will systematically require intersectoral collaboration to be successful.

Techno-economic assessment of catalytic gasification of biomass powders for methanol production

This study evaluated the techno-economic performance and potential benefits of methanol production through catalytic gasification of forest residues and lignin. The results showed that while catalytic gasification enables increased cold gas efficiencies and methanol yields compared to non-catalytic gasification, the additional pre-treatment energy and loss of electricity production result in small or no system efficiency improvements. The resulting required methanol selling prices (90-130€/MWh) are comparable with production costs for other biofuels. It is concluded that catalytic gasification of forest residues can be an attractive option as it provides operational advantages at production costs comparable to non-catalytic gasification. The addition of lignin would require lignin costs below 25€/MWh to be economically beneficial.