Repositioning of the global epicentre of non-optimal cholesterol

High blood cholesterol is typically considered a feature of wealthy western countries1,2. However, dietary and behavioural determinants of blood cholesterol are changing rapidly throughout the world3 and countries are using lipid-lowering medications at varying rates. These changes can have distinct effects on the levels of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and non-HDL cholesterol, which have different effects on human health4,5. However, the trends of HDL and non-HDL cholesterol levels over time have not been previously reported in a global analysis. Here we pooled 1,127 population-based studies that measured blood lipids in 102.6 million individuals aged 18 years and older to estimate trends from 1980 to 2018 in mean total, non-HDL and HDL cholesterol levels for 200 countries. Globally, there was little change in total or non-HDL cholesterol from 1980 to 2018. This was a net effect of increases in low- and middle-income countries, especially in east and southeast Asia, and decreases in high-income western countries, especially those in northwestern Europe, and in central and eastern Europe. As a result, countries with the highest level of non-HDL cholesterol-which is a marker of cardiovascular risk-changed from those in western Europe such as Belgium, Finland, Greenland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and Malta in 1980 to those in Asia and the Pacific, such as Tokelau, Malaysia, The Philippines and Thailand. In 2017, high non-HDL cholesterol was responsible for an estimated 3.9 million (95% credible interval 3.7 million-4.2 million) worldwide deaths, half of which occurred in east, southeast and south Asia. The global repositioning of lipid-related risk, with non-optimal cholesterol shifting from a distinct feature of high-income countries in northwestern Europe, north America and Australasia to one that affects countries in east and southeast Asia and Oceania should motivate the use of population-based policies and personal interventions to improve nutrition and enhance access to treatment throughout the world.

Linkage von klinischen Primärdaten und Krankenkassenabrechnungsdaten in der Evaluation der Schlaganfallversorgung – SeDaStro: Erfahrungen aus dem Tiroler StrokeCard-Programm

Hintergrund Und Zielsetzung Datenlinkage-Verfahren sind von erheblicher Bedeutung für die Evaluation von Therapieregimes chronischer Erkrankungen, bei denen Patient/inn/en zwischen verschiedenen Versorgungssektoren navigieren. Ein umfassendes Bild langfristiger Effekte und der Kosten-Effektivität der Behandlung kann nur gezeichnet werden, wenn Daten verschiedener Provenienz miteinander verknüpft werden.

Methodische Probleme und Herausforderungen Am Beispiel der post-akuten Versorgung des Schlaganfalls veranschaulicht die vorliegende Studie, wie per exaktem deterministischem Datenlinkage klinische Patient/inn/endaten (Primärdaten) mit Routineabrechnungsdaten (Sekundärdaten) der Tiroler Gebietskrankenkasse (TGKK) verknüpft werden können. Die von Datenlinkage-Projekten bekannten Herausforderungen traten auch beim StrokeCard-Projekt der Medizinischen Universität Innsbruck auf, insgesamt jedoch begünstigten die Spezifika des österreichischen Gesundheitssystems (ein Großteil der Population ist in der Gebietskrankenkasse des jeweiligen Bundeslandes pflichtversichert) das Datenlinkage-Vorhaben.

Ergebnisse Im Rekrutierungszeitraum 01/2014–12/2015 konnten n=540 Pat. identifiziert und dem operativen Datensatz zugespielt werden. Davon waren n=367 Teil der StrokeCard-Gruppe (d. h. der Interventionsgruppe), n=173 gehörten der Standardversorgungsgruppe an (d. h. der Kontrollgruppe); n=11 Pat. haben das 1-Jahres-Follow-up nicht beendet (n=7 Pat. der Interventionsgruppe vs. n=4 Pat. der Kontrollgruppe); n=7 Pat. verstarben während der Studie (n=5 Pat. der Interventionsgruppe vs. n=2 Pat. der Kontrollgruppe). Für alle 540 Pat. waren TGKK-Routinedaten für 1 Jahr vor Rekrutierung bis 1 Jahr nach Entlassung aus der Klinik verfügbar. Alle Daten konnten für die gesundheitsökonomische Evaluation verwendet werden.

Schlussfolgerungen Mit diesem Projekt wurde die Machbarkeit der Verknüpfung von Primär- und Sekundärdaten unterschiedlicher Herkunft untersucht. Trotz günstiger Rahmenbedingungen hat die österreichische Versorgungsforschung nur begrenzte Erfahrungen auf diesem Gebiet. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass ein unter Datenschutzkautelen betriebenes Linkage gelingen kann und aufgrund der Verfügbarkeit relevanter Informationen aus Abrechnungsdaten eine empirische Bereicherung insbesondere für gesundheitsökonomische Analysen darstellt. Dies sollte als Anregung verstanden werden, in Evaluationsstudien Datenlinkage-Prozeduren in Zukunft in verstärktem Maße einzusetzen.

Associations of Serum Dickkopf-1 and Sclerostin With Cardiovascular Events: Results From the Prospective Bruneck Study

Background Dickkopf-1 and sclerostin have been implicated in atherosclerosis and vascular calcification. We aimed to quantify the association of their serum levels with incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the general population. Methods and Results Among 706 participants of the prospective, population-based Bruneck Study, mean±SD of serum levels were 44.5±14.7 pmol/L for dickkopf-1 and 47.1±17.5 pmol/L for sclerostin. The primary outcome was a composite CVD end point composed of ischemic or hemorrhagic stroke, transient ischemic attack, myocardial infarction, angina pectoris, peripheral vascular disease, and revascularization procedures. Over a median follow-up duration of 15.6 years, 179 CVD events occurred. For the primary CVD outcome, multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) per SD higher level were 1.20 for dickkopf-1 (95% CI, 1.02-1.42; P=0.028) and 0.92 for sclerostin (95% CI, 0.78-1.08; P=0.286). Secondary outcome analyses revealed that the association of dickkopf-1 was primarily driven by ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke (67 events; HR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.06-1.78; P=0.017), whereas no increase in risk was observed for transient ischemic attack (22 events; HR, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.53-1.44; P=0.593), myocardial infarction (45 events; HR, 1.10; 95% CI, 0.78-1.54; P=0.598), or for other CVD (45 events; HR, 1.25; 95% CI, 0.88-1.76; P=0.209). Conclusions In this prospective, population-based study, elevated baseline levels of dickkopf-1, but not sclerostin, were independently associated with incident cardiovascular events, which was mainly driven by stroke. Our findings support the hypothesis of a role of dickkopf-1 in the pathogenesis of CVD.

Trends of r-tPA (Recombinant Tissue-Type Plasminogen Activator) Treatment and Treatment-Influencing Factors in Acute Ischemic Stroke

Background and Purpose- Frequencies of treatment with r-tPA (recombinant tissue-type plasminogen activator) are increasing over the past 15 years. However, published data on the influence of various demographic and clinical factors on r-tPA treatment as well as estimates of future trajectories are limited. We evaluated time trends and future trajectories of r-tPA treatment in patients with acute stroke and the influence of various factors on r-tPA treatment by analyzing data of 103 970 patients enrolled in the Austrian Stroke Unit Registry from 2006 to 2018, of which 18 953 were treated with r-tPA. Methods- Time trends of r-tPA-treatment were investigated in predefined subgroups (minor/major stroke, age, anterior/posterior circulation stroke); limited exponential time series models were calculated to estimate future trends of r-tPA-treatment. Logistic regression models were calculated to estimate the influence of clinical variables on r-tPA-treatment. Results- Overall, r-tPA treatment frequencies increased from 9.9% in 2006 to 21.8% in 2018. We observed a particular increase in patients >80 years, patients presenting with a National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale Score of 2 to 3, patients with posterior circulation stroke, patients with wake-up stroke, and patients without atrial fibrillation. Forecast of overall r-tPA frequencies predicted a further but flattened increase up to 24% by 2025. Logistic regression of time-dependent associations of clinical variables with r-tPA-treatment revealed increasing odds of r-tPA-treatment in patients with a posterior circulation stroke and decreasing odds of r-tPA-treatment in patients with atrial fibrillation. Conclusions- We observed a positive development of r-tPA-treatment frequencies mirroring increasing confidence with intravenous thrombolysis in clinical practice; however, decreasing odds of r-tPA-treatment over time in patients with atrial fibrillation deserve particular attention.

FURIN Expression in Vascular Endothelial Cells Is Modulated by a Coronary Artery Disease-Associated Genetic Variant and Influences Monocyte Transendothelial Migration

Background Genome-wide association studies have shown an association between the single-nucleotide polymorphism rs17514846 on chromosome 15q26.1 and coronary artery disease susceptibility. The underlying biological mechanism is, however, not fully understood. rs17514846 is located in the FES Upstream Region (FURIN) gene, which is expressed in vascular endothelial cells (ECs). We investigated whether rs17514846 has an influence on FURIN expression in ECs and whether FURIN affects EC behavior. Methods and Results Quantitative reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction analysis showed that cultured vascular ECs from individuals carrying the coronary artery disease risk allele of rs17514846 had higher FURIN expression than cells from noncarriers. In support, luciferase reporter analyses in ECs indicated that the risk allele had higher transcriptional activity than the nonrisk allele. Electrophoretic mobility shift assays using EC nuclear protein extracts detected a DNA-protein complex with allele-specific differential binding of a nuclear protein. Knockdown of FURIN in ECs reduced endothelin-1 secretion, nuclear factor-κB activity, vascular cell adhesion molecule-1, and MCP1 (monocyte chemotactic protein-1) expression and monocyte-endothelial adhesion and transmigration. A population-based study showed an association of the rs17514846 risk allele with higher circulating MCP1 levels and greater carotid intima-media thickness. Conclusions The coronary artery disease risk variant at the 15q26.1 locus modulates FURIN expression in vascular ECs. FURIN levels in ECs affect monocyte-endothelial adhesion and migration.

The Tyrolean early vascular ageing-study (EVA-Tyrol): study protocol for a non-randomized controlled trial : Effect of a cardiovascular health promotion program in youth, a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

According to the World Health Organization, cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the leading non-communicable cause of death. Awareness of the individual risk profile is crucial to implement a healthy lifestyle and prevent CVDs. Multiple studies demonstrated that atherosclerosis, the main cause of CVDs, begins early in life. Therefore, it may be necessary to start prevention programs already in childhood.

METHODS

The EVA-Tyrol study is a population-based non-randomized controlled trial that will prospectively enroll 2000 participants from high schools and training companies in North- and East-Tyrol (Austria) and South-Tyrol (Italy). Participants will be assigned to either an intervention (n = 1500) or a control (n = 500) group. Intervention group participants will be enrolled at the 10th school grade (mean age 15-16 years), undergo two examinations within a two-year interval, with follow-up at the 12th grade (mean ages 17-18 years). Control group participants will be enrolled at the 12th grade (mean age 17-18 years). Medical examination will include anthropometric measurements, comprehensive lifestyle and dietary questionnaires, a fasting blood sample, high-resolution ultrasound of the carotid arteries, and measurement of carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity. Active intervention will consist of (1) enhancing knowledge about CVDs, (2) individual medical counseling based on the results of the baseline examination, (3) an online health promotion tool and (4) involvement of participants in planning and implementation of health promotion projects. Effectiveness of the intervention will be assessed by comparing the proportion subjects with ideal health metrics as defined by the American Heart Association between study groups.

DISCUSSION

This study aims to improve cardiovascular health in Tyrolean adolescents by demonstrating the efficacy of a multi-layer health promotion program and may yield novel insights into the prevalence of vascular risk conditions and mechanisms of early vascular pathologies in adolescents.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

EVA-Tyrol has been retrospectively registered at clinicaltrials.gov under NCT03929692 since April 29, 2019.

National trends in total cholesterol obscure heterogeneous changes in HDL and non-HDL cholesterol and total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio: a pooled analysis of 458 population-based studies in Asian and Western countries

BACKGROUND

Although high-density lipoprotein (HDL) and non-HDL cholesterol have opposite associations with coronary heart disease, multi-country reports of lipid trends only use total cholesterol (TC). Our aim was to compare trends in total, HDL and non-HDL cholesterol and the total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio in Asian and Western countries.

METHODS

We pooled 458 population-based studies with 82.1 million participants in 23 Asian and Western countries. We estimated changes in mean total, HDL and non-HDL cholesterol and mean total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio by country, sex and age group.

RESULTS

Since ∼1980, mean TC increased in Asian countries. In Japan and South Korea, the TC rise was due to rising HDL cholesterol, which increased by up to 0.17 mmol/L per decade in Japanese women; in China, it was due to rising non-HDL cholesterol. TC declined in Western countries, except in Polish men. The decline was largest in Finland and Norway, at ∼0.4 mmol/L per decade. The decline in TC in most Western countries was the net effect of an increase in HDL cholesterol and a decline in non-HDL cholesterol, with the HDL cholesterol increase largest in New Zealand and Switzerland. Mean total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio declined in Japan, South Korea and most Western countries, by as much as ∼0.7 per decade in Swiss men (equivalent to ∼26% decline in coronary heart disease risk per decade). The ratio increased in China.

CONCLUSIONS

HDL cholesterol has risen and the total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio has declined in many Western countries, Japan and South Korea, with only a weak correlation with changes in TC or non-HDL cholesterol.

Progression of conventional cardiovascular risk factors and vascular disease risk in individuals: insights from the PROG-IMT consortium

AIMS

Averaged measurements, but not the progression based on multiple assessments of carotid intima-media thickness, (cIMT) are predictive of cardiovascular disease (CVD) events in individuals. Whether this is true for conventional risk factors is unclear.

METHODS AND RESULTS

An individual participant meta-analysis was used to associate the annualised progression of systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol with future cardiovascular disease risk in 13 prospective cohort studies of the PROG-IMT collaboration (n = 34,072). Follow-up data included information on a combined cardiovascular disease endpoint of myocardial infarction, stroke, or vascular death. In secondary analyses, annualised progression was replaced with average. Log hazard ratios per standard deviation difference were pooled across studies by a random effects meta-analysis. In primary analysis, the annualised progression of total cholesterol was marginally related to a higher cardiovascular disease risk (hazard ratio (HR) 1.04, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.00 to 1.07). The annualised progression of systolic blood pressure, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol was not associated with future cardiovascular disease risk. In secondary analysis, average systolic blood pressure (HR 1.20 95% CI 1.11 to 1.29) and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HR 1.09, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.16) were related to a greater, while high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HR 0.92, 95% CI 0.88 to 0.97) was related to a lower risk of future cardiovascular disease events.

CONCLUSION

Averaged measurements of systolic blood pressure, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol displayed significant linear relationships with the risk of future cardiovascular disease events. However, there was no clear association between the annualised progression of these conventional risk factors in individuals with the risk of future clinical endpoints.

Midbrain hyperechogenicity, hyposmia, mild parkinsonian signs and risk for incident Parkinson's disease over 10 years: A prospective population-based study

INTRODUCTION

Associations of substantia nigra (SN) hyperechogenicity on transcranial sonography, olfactory dysfunction, and mild parkinsonian signs (MPS) with incident Parkinson's disease (PD) have only been studied over limited periods of follow-up and their long-term predictive properties are unclear. We aimed to prospectively assess the risk for incident PD over 10 years in community-dwelling elderly individuals with these risk markers.

METHODS

SN-hyperechogenicity, olfactory function, and MPS were assessed in the prospective population-based Bruneck Study (2005 in-person assessment; n = 574, aged 55-94 years). Cases of incident PD were identified at 5-year and 10-year follow-up visits. We estimated relative risks of baseline markers for incident cases.

RESULTS

After excluding 35 cases with PD or secondary parkinsonism at baseline, a total of 20 cases of incident PD were identified from the remaining 539 participants (11 at 5 years and 9 at 10 years). Relative risks for incident PD over the 10-year follow-up period were 7.43 (2.71-20.39), 3.60 (1.48-8.78), and 5.52 (2.43-12.57) for baseline SN-hyperechogenicity, hyposmia, and mild parkinsonian signs, respectively. While risk of hyposmia for incident PD was similar for the two sequential 5-year periods studied, relative risks of SN-hyperechogenicity and MPS were higher for the first five years as compared to later.

CONCLUSION

Our findings extend the established risk relationship of SN-hyperechogenicity, hyposmia, and MPS with incident PD beyond 5 years of follow-up.

The dimension of preventable stroke in a large representative patient cohort

Objective

To analyze the frequency of inadequately treated risk factors in a large representative cohort of patients with acute ischemic stroke or TIA and to estimate the proportion of events potentially avertable by guideline-compliant preventive therapy compared to the status quo.

Methods

A total of 1,730 patients from the Poststroke Disease Management STROKE-CARD trial (NCT02156778) were recruited between 2014 and 2017. We focused on 8 risk conditions amenable to drug therapy and 3 lifestyle risk behaviors and assessed pre-event risk factor control in retrospect.

Results

The proportion of patients with at least 1 inadequately treated risk condition was 79.5% (95% confidence interval [CI] 77.6%–81.4%) and increased to 95.1% (95% CI 94.1%–96.1%) upon consideration of the lifestyle risk behaviors. Risk factor control was worse in patients with recurrent vs first-ever events (p < 0.001), men vs women (p = 0.003), and patients ≤75 vs >75 years of age (p < 0.001). The estimated degree of stroke preventability ranged from 0.4% (95% CI 0.2%–0.6%) to 13.7% (95% CI 12.2%–15.2%) for the individual risk factors. Adequate control of the 5 most relevant risk factors combined (hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, atrial fibrillation, smoking, and overweight) would have averted ≈1 of 2 events or 1 in 4 with a highly conservative computation approach.

Conclusions

Our study confirms the existence of a considerable gap between risk factor control recommended by guidelines and real-world stroke prevention. Our study intends to increase awareness among physicians about stroke preventability and provides a quantitative basis for the emerging discussion on how to best tackle this challenge.

Phenome-wide association analysis of LDL-cholesterol lowering genetic variants in PCSK9

BACKGROUND

We characterised the phenotypic consequence of genetic variation at the PCSK9 locus and compared findings with recent trials of pharmacological inhibitors of PCSK9.

METHODS

Published and individual participant level data (300,000+ participants) were combined to construct a weighted PCSK9 gene-centric score (GS). Seventeen randomized placebo controlled PCSK9 inhibitor trials were included, providing data on 79,578 participants. Results were scaled to a one mmol/L lower LDL-C concentration.

RESULTS

The PCSK9 GS (comprising 4 SNPs) associations with plasma lipid and apolipoprotein levels were consistent in direction with treatment effects. The GS odds ratio (OR) for myocardial infarction (MI) was 0.53 (95% CI 0.42; 0.68), compared to a PCSK9 inhibitor effect of 0.90 (95% CI 0.86; 0.93). For ischemic stroke ORs were 0.84 (95% CI 0.57; 1.22) for the GS, compared to 0.85 (95% CI 0.78; 0.93) in the drug trials. ORs with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) were 1.29 (95% CI 1.11; 1.50) for the GS, as compared to 1.00 (95% CI 0.96; 1.04) for incident T2DM in PCSK9 inhibitor trials. No genetic associations were observed for cancer, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, or Alzheimer's disease - outcomes for which large-scale trial data were unavailable.

CONCLUSIONS

Genetic variation at the PCSK9 locus recapitulates the effects of therapeutic inhibition of PCSK9 on major blood lipid fractions and MI. While indicating an increased risk of T2DM, no other possible safety concerns were shown; although precision was moderate.

Is Functional Outcome Different in Posterior and Anterior Circulation Stroke?

Background and Purpose- Posterior circulation stroke (PCS) account for 20% of all ischemic strokes. There is limited evidence whether functional outcome of PCS is comparable to that of anterior circulation stroke (ACS). We aimed to analyze whether 3-month functional outcome is different in PCS and ACS. Methods- Patients with acute ischemic stroke prospectively enrolled within the Austrian Stroke Unit Registry were stratified by infarct localization according to the Oxfordshire Community Stroke Project Classification. Propensity score matching was used to control for covariate imbalances and to match patients with PCS and ACS. Patients were matched for stroke severity, recombinant tissue-type plasminogen activator treatment, and demographic and vascular risk factors. Main outcomes were the distribution of modified Rankin Scale after 3 months and multiple proportional odds models to estimate the influence of the infarct localization on the functional outcome. Results- From a total of 90 484 patients enrolled within the Austrian Stroke Unit Registry, 9208 (4604 PCS/4604 ACS) were matched, of those 954 (477 in each group) were treated with recombinant tissue-type plasminogen activator. We detected a significant shift towards better 3-month functional outcome in patients with ACS compared with PCS (odds ratio [OR], 1.19; 95% CI, 1.1-1.28; P<0.0001). In particular, functional outcome was worse in PCS with onset-to-door-time >270 minutes (OR, 1.34; 95% CI, 1.17-1.54; P<0.0001) and in PCS with unknown onset-to-door-time (OR, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.13-1.42; P<0.0001); however, we did not detect any difference in functional outcome between ACS and PCS in patients with an onset-to-door-time ≤270 minutes (1-180 minutes: OR, 0.92, 95% CI, 0.78-1.09, P=0.3554; 181-270 minutes: OR, 1.04, 95% CI, 0.79-1.37, P=0.7689). In patients treated with recombinant tissue-type plasminogen activator, functional outcome was not significantly different between PCS and ACS. Conclusions- PCS was associated with worse outcome compared with ACS in patients arriving later than 4.5 hours at hospital or in those with unknown onset of symptoms. Our results urge for implementation of symptoms found in the posterior circulation into preclinical patient-triage tools.

Association Between Vascular Cell Adhesion Molecule 1 and Atrial Fibrillation

Importance

Accumulating evidence links inflammation and atrial fibrillation (AF).

Objective

To assess whether markers of systemic and atrial inflammation are associated with incident AF in the general population.

Design, Setting, and Participants

The Bruneck Study is a prospective, population-based cohort study with a 20-year follow-up (n = 909). The population included a random sample of the general community aged 40 to 79 years. Levels of 13 inflammation markers were measured at baseline in 1990. Findings were replicated in a case-control sample nested within the prospective Salzburg Atherosclerosis Prevention Program in Subjects at High Individual Risk (SAPHIR) study (n = 1770). Data analysis was performed from February to May 2016.

Exposures

Levels of 13 inflammation markers.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Incident AF over a 20-year follow-up period in the Bruneck Study.

Results

Of the 909 participants included in the Bruneck Study, mean [SD] age was 58.8 (11.4) years and 448 (49.3%) were women. Among the 880 participants free of prevalent AF (n = 29) at baseline, 117 developed AF during the 20-year follow-up period (incidence rate, 8.2; 95% CI, 6.8-9.6 per 1000 person-years). The levels of soluble vascular cell adhesion molecule 1 (VCAM-1) and osteoprotegerin were significantly associated with incident AF (hazard ratio [HR], 1.49; 95% CI, 1.26-1.78; and 1.46; 95% CI, 1.25-1.69, respectively; P < .001 with Bonferroni correction for both), but osteoprotegerin lost significance after age and sex adjustment (HR, 1.05; 95% CI, 0.87-1.27; P > .99 with Bonferroni correction). Matrix metalloproteinase 9, metalloproteinase inhibitor 1, monocyte chemoattractant protein-1, P-selectin, fibrinogen, receptor activator of nuclear factor-κB ligand, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, adiponectin, leptin, soluble intercellular adhesion molecule 1, and E-selectin all fell short of significance (after Bonferroni correction in unadjusted and age- and sex-adjusted analyses). The HR for a 1-SD higher soluble VCAM-1 level was 1.34 (95% CI, 1.11-1.62; Bonferroni-corrected P = .03) in a multivariable model. The association was of a dose-response type, at least as strong as that obtained for N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (multivariable HR for a 1-SD higher N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide level, 1.15; 95% CI, 1.04-1.26), internally consistent in various subgroups, and successfully replicated in the SAPHIR Study (age- and sex-adjusted, and multivariable odds ratios for a 1-SD higher soluble VCAM-1 level, 1.91; 95% CI, 1.24-2.96, P = .003; and 2.59; 95% CI, 1.45-4.60; P = .001).

Conclusions and Relevance

Levels of soluble VCAM-1, but not other inflammation markers, are significantly associated with new-onset AF in the general community. Future studies should address whether soluble VCAM-1 is capable of improving AF risk classification beyond the information provided by standard risk scores.

Equalization of four cardiovascular risk algorithms after systematic recalibration: individual-participant meta-analysis of 86 prospective studies

AIMS

There is debate about the optimum algorithm for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk estimation. We conducted head-to-head comparisons of four algorithms recommended by primary prevention guidelines, before and after 'recalibration', a method that adapts risk algorithms to take account of differences in the risk characteristics of the populations being studied.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Using individual-participant data on 360 737 participants without CVD at baseline in 86 prospective studies from 22 countries, we compared the Framingham risk score (FRS), Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), pooled cohort equations (PCE), and Reynolds risk score (RRS). We calculated measures of risk discrimination and calibration, and modelled clinical implications of initiating statin therapy in people judged to be at 'high' 10 year CVD risk. Original risk algorithms were recalibrated using the risk factor profile and CVD incidence of target populations. The four algorithms had similar risk discrimination. Before recalibration, FRS, SCORE, and PCE over-predicted CVD risk on average by 10%, 52%, and 41%, respectively, whereas RRS under-predicted by 10%. Original versions of algorithms classified 29-39% of individuals aged ≥40 years as high risk. By contrast, recalibration reduced this proportion to 22-24% for every algorithm. We estimated that to prevent one CVD event, it would be necessary to initiate statin therapy in 44-51 such individuals using original algorithms, in contrast to 37-39 individuals with recalibrated algorithms.

CONCLUSION

Before recalibration, the clinical performance of four widely used CVD risk algorithms varied substantially. By contrast, simple recalibration nearly equalized their performance and improved modelled targeting of preventive action to clinical need.

Predicting Early Mortality of Acute Ischemic Stroke

Background and Purpose—

Several risk factors are known to increase mid- and long-term mortality of ischemic stroke patients. Information on predictors of early stroke mortality is scarce but often requested in clinical practice. We therefore aimed to develop a rapidly applicable tool for predicting early mortality at the stroke unit.

Methods—

We used data from the nationwide Austrian Stroke Unit Registry and multivariate regularized logistic regression analysis to identify demographic and clinical variables associated with early (≤7 days poststroke) mortality of patients admitted with ischemic stroke. These variables were then used to develop the Predicting Early Mortality of Ischemic Stroke score that was validated both by bootstrapping and temporal validation.

Results—

In total, 77 653 ischemic stroke patients were included in the analysis (median age: 74 years, 47% women). The mortality rate at the stroke unit was 2% and median stay of deceased patients was 3 days. Age, stroke severity measured by the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale, prestroke functional disability (modified Rankin Scale >0), preexisting heart disease, diabetes mellitus, posterior circulation stroke syndrome, and nonlacunar stroke cause were associated with mortality and served to build the Predicting Early Mortality of Ischemic Stroke score ranging from 0 to 12 points. The area under the curve of the score was 0.879 (95% CI, 0.871–0.886) in the derivation cohort and 0.884 (95% CI, 0.863–0.905) in the validation sample. Patients with a score ≥10 had a 35% (95% CI, 28%–43%) risk to die within the first days at the stroke unit.

Conclusions—

We developed a simple score to estimate early mortality of ischemic stroke patients treated at a stroke unit. This score could help clinicians in short-term prognostication for management decisions and counseling.

Pragmatic trial of multifaceted intervention (STROKE-CARD care) to reduce cardiovascular risk and improve quality-of-life after ischaemic stroke and transient ischaemic attack -study protocol

BACKGROUND

Patients with ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack (TIA) are at high risk of future cardiovascular events. Despite compelling evidence about the efficacy of secondary prevention, a substantial gap exists between risk factor management in real life and that recommended by international guidelines. Moreover, stroke is a leading cause of disability and morbidity which partly emerges from post-stroke complications.

METHODS/DESIGN

We designed a block-randomised (2:1 ratio) open pragmatic trial [NCT02156778] with blinded outcome assessment comparing STROKE-CARD to usual post-stroke-patient care. STROKE-CARD is a multifaceted post-stroke disease management program with the objective of reducing recurrent cardiovascular events and improving quality of life in ischaemic stroke and TIA-patients. It combines intensified multi-domain secondary prevention, systematic detection and treatment of post-stroke complications, and patient self-empowerment. Enrolment of 2160 patients with acute ischaemic stroke or TIA (ABCD2-Score ≥ 3) is planned at two study centres in Austria. The co-primary efficacy endpoints are (i) the composite of major recurrent cardiovascular events (nonfatal stroke, nonfatal myocardial infarction, and vascular death) occurring within 12 months after the index event and (ii) one-year health-related quality-of-life measured with the European Quality of Life-5 Dimensions (EQ-5D-3 L) questionaire. Secondary endpoints include all-cause mortality, functional outcome, and target-level achievement in risk factor management.

DISCUSSION

This trial will provide evidence on whether the pragmatic post-stroke intervention program STROKE-CARD can help prevent cardiovascular events and improve quality-of-life within the setting of a high-quality acute stroke care system. In case of success, STROKE-CARD may be implemented in daily clinical routine and serve as a model for other disease management initiatives.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT02156778 . (June 5, 2014, retrospectively registered).