Large mammals and trees in eastern monsoonal China: anthropogenic losses since the Late Pleistocene and restoration prospects in the Anthropocene

Massive human-induced declines of large-sized animals and trees (megabiota) from the Late Pleistocene to the Anthropocene have resulted in downsized ecosystems across the globe, in which components and functions have been greatly simplified. In response, active restoration projects of extant large-sized species or functional substitutes are needed at large scales to promote ecological processes that are important for ecosystem self-regulation and biodiversity maintenance. Despite the desired global scope of such projects, they have received little attention in East Asia. Here, we synthesise the biogeographical and ecological knowledge of megabiota in ancient and modern China, with relevant data mostly located in eastern monsoonal China (EMC), aiming to assess its potential for restoring functionally intact ecosystems modulated by megabiota. We found that during the Late Pleistocene, 12 mammalian megafaunal (carnivores ≥15 kg and herbivores ≥500 kg) species disappeared from EMC: one carnivore Crocuta ultima (East Asian spotted hyena) and 11 herbivores including six megaherbivores (≥1000 kg). The relative importance of climate change and humans in driving these losses remains debated, despite accumulating evidence in favour of the latter. Later massive depletion of megafauna and large-sized (45-500 kg) herbivores has been closely associated with agricultural expansion and societal development, especially during the late Holocene. While forests rich in large timber trees (33 taxa in written records) were common in the region 2000-3000 years ago, millennial-long logging has resulted in considerable range contractions and at least 39 threatened species. The wide distribution of C. ultima, which likely favoured open or semi-open habitats (like extant spotted hyenas), suggests the existence of mosaic open and closed vegetation in the Late Pleistocene across EMC, in line with a few pollen-based vegetation reconstructions and potentially, or at least partially, reflecting herbivory by herbivorous megafauna. The widespread loss of megaherbivores may have strongly compromised seed dispersal for both megafruit (fleshy fruits with widths ≥40 mm) and non-megafruit plant species in EMC, especially in terms of extra-long-distance (>10 km) dispersal, which is critical for plant species that rely on effective biotic agents to track rapid climate change. The former occurrence of large mammals and trees have translated into rich material and non-material heritages passed down across generations. Several reintroduction projects have been implemented or are under consideration, with the case of Elaphurus davidianus a notable success in recovering wild populations in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, although trophic interactions with native carnivorous megafauna have not yet been restored. Lessons of dealing with human-wildlife conflicts are key to public support for maintaining landscapes shared with megafauna and large herbivores in the human-dominated Anthropocene. Meanwhile, potential human-wildlife conflicts, e.g. public health risks, need to be scientifically informed and effectively reduced. The Chinese government's strong commitment to improved policies of ecological protection and restoration (e.g. ecological redlines and national parks) provides a solid foundation for a scaling-up contribution to the global scope needed for solving the crisis of biotic downsizing and ecosystem degradation.

Deadly avian flu hits Galápagos

Concerns rise for boobies, finches, and other endemic species.

Mutilation of the tree of life via mass extinction of animal genera

Mass extinctions during the past 500 million y rapidly removed branches from the phylogenetic tree of life and required millions of years for evolution to generate functional replacements for the extinct (EX) organisms. Here we show, by examining 5,400 vertebrate genera (excluding fishes) comprising 34,600 species, that 73 genera became EX since 1500 AD. Beyond any doubt, the human-driven sixth mass extinction is more severe than previously assessed and is rapidly accelerating. The current generic extinction rates are 35 times higher than expected background rates prevailing in the last million years under the absence of human impacts. The genera lost in the last five centuries would have taken some 18,000 y to vanish in the absence of human beings. Current generic extinction rates will likely greatly accelerate in the next few decades due to drivers accompanying the growth and consumption of the human enterprise such as habitat destruction, illegal trade, and climate disruption. If all now-endangered genera were to vanish by 2,100, extinction rates would be 354 (average) or 511 (for mammals) times higher than background rates, meaning that genera lost in three centuries would have taken 106,000 and 153,000 y to become EX in the absence of humans. Such mutilation of the tree of life and the resulting loss of ecosystem services provided by biodiversity to humanity is a serious threat to the stability of civilization. Immediate political, economic, and social efforts of an unprecedented scale are essential if we are to prevent these extinctions and their societal impacts.

Incorporating global change reveals extinction risk beyond the current Red List

Global changes over the past few decades have caused species distribution shifts and triggered population declines and local extinctions of many species. The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species (Red List) is regarded as the most comprehensive tool for assessing species extinction risk and has been used at regional, national, and global scales. However, most Red Lists rely on the past and current status of species populations and distributions but do not adequately reflect the risks induced by future global changes. Using distribution maps of >4,000 endemic woody species in China, combined with ensembled species distribution models, we assessed the species threat levels under future climate and land-cover changes using the projected changes in species' suitable habitats and compared our updated Red List with China's existing Red List. We discover an increased number of threatened species in the updated Red List and increased threat levels of >50% of the existing threatened species compared with the existing one. Over 50% of the newly identified threatened species are not adequately covered by protected areas. The Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, rather than the Hengduan Mountains, is the distribution center of threatened species on the updated Red Lists, as opposed to the threatened species on the existing Red List. Our findings suggest that using Red Lists without considering the impacts of future global changes will underestimate the extinction risks and lead to a biased estimate of conservation priorities, potentially limiting the ability to meet the Kunming-Montreal global conservation targets.

Bayesian analyses indicate bivalves did not drive the downfall of brachiopods following the Permian-Triassic mass extinction

Certain times of major biotic replacement have often been interpreted as broadly competitive, mediated by innovation in the succeeding clades. A classic example was the switch from brachiopods to bivalves as major seabed organisms following the Permian-Triassic mass extinction (PTME), ~252 million years ago. This was attributed to competitive exclusion of brachiopods by the better adapted bivalves or simply to the fact that brachiopods had been hit especially hard by the PTME. The brachiopod-bivalve switch is emblematic of the global turnover of marine faunas from Palaeozoic-type to Modern-type triggered by the PTME. Here, using Bayesian analyses, we find that unexpectedly the two clades displayed similar large-scale trends of diversification before the Jurassic. Insight from a multivariate birth-death model shows that the extinction of major brachiopod clades during the PTME set the stage for the brachiopod-bivalve switch, with differential responses to high ocean temperatures post-extinction further facilitating their displacement by bivalves. Our study strengthens evidence that brachiopods and bivalves were not competitors over macroevolutionary time scales, with extinction events and environmental stresses shaping their divergent fates.

Why the Early Paleozoic was intrinsically prone to marine extinction

The geological record of marine animal biodiversity reflects the interplay between changing rates of speciation versus extinction. Compared to mass extinctions, background extinctions have received little attention. To disentangle the different contributions of global climate state, continental configuration, and atmospheric oxygen concentration (pO2) to variations in background extinction rates, we drive an animal physiological model with the environmental outputs from an Earth system model across intervals spanning the past 541 million years. We find that climate and continental configuration combined to make extinction susceptibility an order of magnitude higher during the Early Paleozoic than during the rest of the Phanerozoic, consistent with extinction rates derived from paleontological databases. The high extinction susceptibility arises in the model from the limited geographical range of marine organisms. It stands even when assuming present-day pO2, suggesting that increasing oxygenation through the Paleozoic is not necessary to explain why extinction rates apparently declined with time.

No phylogenetic evidence for angiosperm mass extinction at the Cretaceous-Palaeogene (K-Pg) boundary

The Cretaceous-Palaeogene mass extinction event (K-Pg) witnessed upwards of 75% of animal species going extinct, most notably among these are the non-avian dinosaurs. A major question in macroevolution is whether this extinction event influenced the rise of flowering plants (angiosperms). The fossil record suggests that the K-Pg event had a strong regional impact on angiosperms with up to 75% species extinctions, but only had a minor impact on the extinction rates of major lineages (families and orders). Phylogenetic evidence for angiosperm extinction dynamics through time remains unexplored. By analysing two angiosperm mega-phylogenies containing approximately 32 000-73 000 extant species, here we show relatively constant extinction rates throughout geological time and no evidence for a mass extinction at the K-Pg boundary. Despite high species-level extinction observed in the fossil record, our results support the macroevolutionary resilience of angiosperms to the K-Pg mass extinction event via survival of higher lineages.

Estimating co-extinction threats in terrestrial ecosystems

The biosphere is changing rapidly due to human endeavour. Because ecological communities underlie networks of interacting species, changes that directly affect some species can have indirect effects on others. Accurate tools to predict these direct and indirect effects are therefore required to guide conservation strategies. However, most extinction-risk studies only consider the direct effects of global change-such as predicting which species will breach their thermal limits under different warming scenarios-with predictions of trophic cascades and co-extinction risks remaining mostly speculative. To predict the potential indirect effects of primary extinctions, data describing community interactions and network modelling can estimate how extinctions cascade through communities. While theoretical studies have demonstrated the usefulness of models in predicting how communities react to threats like climate change, few have applied such methods to real-world communities. This gap partly reflects challenges in constructing trophic network models of real-world food webs, highlighting the need to develop approaches for quantifying co-extinction risk more accurately. We propose a framework for constructing ecological network models representing real-world food webs in terrestrial ecosystems and subjecting these models to co-extinction scenarios triggered by probable future environmental perturbations. Adopting our framework will improve estimates of how environmental perturbations affect whole ecological communities. Identifying species at risk of co-extinction (or those that might trigger co-extinctions) will also guide conservation interventions aiming to reduce the probability of co-extinction cascades and additional species losses.

Was the Late Ordovician mass extinction truly exceptional?

The Late Ordovician mass extinction event is the oldest of the five great extinction events in the fossil record. It has long been regarded as an outlier among mass extinctions, primarily due to its association with a cooling climate. However, recent temporally better resolved fossil biodiversity estimates complicate this view, providing growing evidence for a prolonged but punctuated biodiversity decline modulated by changes in atmospheric composition, ocean chemistry, and viable habitat area. This evolving view invokes extinction drivers similar to those that occurred during other major extinctions; some are even factors in the current human-induced biodiversity crisis. Even this very ancient and, at first glance, exceptional event conveys important lessons about the intensifying 'sixth mass extinction'.

To rewire or not to rewire: To what extent rewiring to surviving partners can avoid extinction?

Research Highlight: Leimberger, K.G., Hadley, A.S., & Betts, M.G. (2023). Plant-hummingbird pollination networks exhibit minimal rewiring after experimental removal of a locally abundant plant species. Journal of Animal Ecology, https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.13935. In this paper, Leimberger, Hadley and Betts (2023) explore the effects of removing a locally abundant plant species on plant-hummingbird pollination networks. They experimentally prevented access of hummingbirds to flowers of Heliconia tortuosa and assessed subsequent changes in the interactions between plants and hummingbirds. Their main hypothesis postulated that the loss of a highly connected species would lead to interaction rewiring and niche expansions by hummingbirds, decreasing individual, species and network specialization. However, they found that the overall structure of the plant-hummingbird networks remains mostly unaltered, with limited rewiring and minimal changes in specialization. The main contributions of this study can be summarized as (i) it adds to a limited number of manipulative studies on the capacity of species to rewire their interactions following the loss of partners, and importantly, it is the first study from the tropics and with vertebrate pollinators, for which experimental studies at appropriate scales is intrinsically more challenging; and (ii) innovates by evaluating change in specialization for the individual level, carried out through pollen sampling on the body of hummingbirds. The limited change in species interactions highlights that network stability through interaction rewiring may have been overestimated in previous studies, calling for further manipulative studies in the field. At the same time, it also indicated that even the loss of a highly abundant plant species has an overall small effect on network structure. Thus, this study contributes timely findings regarding the capacity of ecological communities to respond to species extinctions.

Response to Comment on "Dying in the Sun: Direct evidence for elevated UV-B radiation at the end-Permian mass extinction"

Seddon and Zimmermann have raised questions about the evidence for increased UV-B flux across the end-Permian mass extinction (EPME) that was presented in our recent study, specifically regarding the measurement of UV-B-absorbing compound (UAC) levels in fossil pollen. We respond to these points, arguing that the comparison of FTIR spectra of >250 million-year-old Permian fossil pollen with ~700-year-old subfossil pollen is not valid and that negligible nonrandom interference derived from water vapor fluctuations during data generation cannot coincidentally produce a substantial UAC peak during the EPME. Furthermore, we refute the suggestion that the measured aromatic peak at 1600 cm-1 could have been influenced by diagenetic products from other organic constituents of pollen. The most productive route forward will be to generate sporomorph geochemical data from additional Permian-Triassic boundary sections to test the results put forward in our study.

Death by fire

Wildfires, intensified by climate change and perhaps human activity, may have doomed Southern California's big mammals 13,000 years ago.

Pre-Younger Dryas megafaunal extirpation at Rancho La Brea linked to fire-driven state shift

The cause, or causes, of the Pleistocene megafaunal extinctions have been difficult to establish, in part because poor spatiotemporal resolution in the fossil record hinders alignment of species disappearances with archeological and environmental data. We obtained 172 new radiocarbon dates on megafauna from Rancho La Brea in California spanning 15.6 to 10.0 thousand calendar years before present (ka). Seven species of extinct megafauna disappeared by 12.9 ka, before the onset of the Younger Dryas. Comparison with high-resolution regional datasets revealed that these disappearances coincided with an ecological state shift that followed aridification and vegetation changes during the Bølling-Allerød (14.69 to 12.89 ka). Time-series modeling implicates large-scale fires as the primary cause of the extirpations, and the catalyst of this state shift may have been mounting human impacts in a drying, warming, and increasingly fire-prone ecosystem.

Diversity, distribution and intrinsic extinction vulnerability of exploited marine bivalves

Marine bivalves are important components of ecosystems and exploited by humans for food across the world, but the intrinsic vulnerability of exploited bivalve species to global changes is poorly known. Here, we expand the list of shallow-marine bivalves known to be exploited worldwide, with 720 exploited bivalve species added beyond the 81 in the United Nations FAO Production Database, and investigate their diversity, distribution and extinction vulnerability using a metric based on ecological traits and evolutionary history. The added species shift the richness hotspot of exploited species from the northeast Atlantic to the west Pacific, with 55% of bivalve families being exploited, concentrated mostly in two major clades but all major body plans. We find that exploited species tend to be larger in size, occur in shallower waters, and have larger geographic and thermal ranges-the last two traits are known to confer extinction-resistance in marine bivalves. However, exploited bivalve species in certain regions such as the tropical east Atlantic and the temperate northeast and southeast Pacific, are among those with high intrinsic vulnerability and are a large fraction of regional faunal diversity. Our results pinpoint regional faunas and specific taxa of likely concern for management and conservation.

A 104-Ma record of deep-sea Atelostomata (Holasterioda, Spatangoida, irregular echinoids) - a story of persistence, food availability and a big bang

Deep-sea macrobenthic body fossils are scarce due to the lack of deep-sea sedimentary archives in onshore settings. Therefore, hypothesized migrations of shallow shelf taxa into the deep-sea after phases of mass extinction (onshore-offshore pattern in the literature) due to anoxic events is not constrained by the fossil record. To resolve this conundrum, we investigated 1,475 deep-sea sediment samples from the Atlantic, Pacific and Southern oceans (water depth ranging from 200 to 4,700 m), providing 41,460 spine fragments of the crown group Atelostomata (Holasteroida, Spatangoida). We show that the scarce fossil record of deep-sea echinoids is in fact a methodological artefact because it is limited by the almost exclusive use of onshore fossil archives. Our data advocate for a continuous record of deep-sea Atelostomata back to at least 104 Ma (late early Cretaceous), and literature records suggest even an older age (115 Ma). A gradual increase of different spine tip morphologies from the Albian to the Maastrichtian is observed. A subsequent, abrupt reduction in spine size and the loss of morphological inventory in the lowermost Paleogene is interpreted to be an expression of the "Lilliput Effect", related to nourishment depletion on the sea floor in the course of the Cretaceous-Paleogene (K-Pg) Boundary Event. The recovery from this event lasted at least 5 Ma, and post-K-Pg Boundary Event assemblages progress-without any further morphological breaks-towards the assemblages observed in modern deep-sea environments. Because atelostomate spine morphology is often species-specific, the variations in spine tip morphology trough time would indicate species changes taking place in the deep-sea. This observation is, therefore, interpreted to result from in-situ evolution in the deep-sea and not from onshore-offshore migrations. The calculation of the "atelostomate spine accumulation rate" (ASAR) reveals low values in pre-Campanian times, possibly related to high remineralization rates of organic matter in the water column in the course of the mid-Cretaceous Thermal Maximum and its aftermath. A Maastrichtian cooling pulse marks the irreversible onset of fluctuating but generally higher atelostomate biomass that continues throughout the Cenozoic.

A timescale for placental mammal diversification based on Bayesian modeling of the fossil record

The timing of the placental mammal radiation has been the focus of debate over the efficacy of competing methods for establishing evolutionary timescales. Molecular clock analyses estimate that placental mammals originated before the Cretaceous-Paleogene (K-Pg) mass extinction, anywhere from the Late Cretaceous to the Jurassic. However, the absence of definitive fossils of placentals before the K-Pg boundary is compatible with a post-Cretaceous origin. Nevertheless, lineage divergence must occur before it can be manifest phenotypically in descendent lineages. This, combined with the non-uniformity of the rock and fossil records, requires the fossil record to be interpreted rather than read literally. To achieve this, we introduce an extended Bayesian Brownian bridge model that estimates the age of origination and, where applicable, extinction through a probabilistic interpretation of the fossil record. The model estimates the origination of placentals in the Late Cretaceous, with ordinal crown groups originating at or after the K-Pg boundary. The results reduce the plausible interval for placental mammal origination to the younger range of molecular clock estimates. Our findings support both the Long Fuse and Soft Explosive models of placental mammal diversification, indicating that the placentals originated shortly prior to the K-Pg mass extinction. The origination of many modern mammal lineages overlapped with and followed the K-Pg mass extinction.

Megafaunal extinctions, not climate change, may explain Holocene genetic diversity declines in Numenius shorebirds

Understanding the relative contributions of historical and anthropogenic factors to declines in genetic diversity is important for informing conservation action. Using genome-wide DNA of fresh and historic specimens, including that of two species widely thought to be extinct, we investigated fluctuations in genetic diversity and present the first complete phylogenomic tree for all nine species of the threatened shorebird genus Numenius, known as whimbrels and curlews. Most species faced sharp declines in effective population size, a proxy for genetic diversity, soon after the Last Glacial Maximum (around 20,000 years ago). These declines occurred prior to the Anthropocene and in spite of an increase in the breeding area predicted by environmental niche modeling, suggesting that they were not caused by climatic or recent anthropogenic factors. Crucially, these genetic diversity declines coincide with mass extinctions of mammalian megafauna in the Northern Hemisphere. Among other factors, the demise of ecosystem-engineering megafauna which maintained open habitats may have been detrimental for grassland and tundra-breeding Numenius shorebirds. Our work suggests that the impact of historical factors such as megafaunal extinction may have had wider repercussions on present-day population dynamics of open habitat biota than previously appreciated.

Parasites in biodiversity conservation: friend or foe?

Parasites stabilise food webs and facilitate species coexistence but can also lead to population- or species-level extinctions. So, in biodiversity conservation, are parasites friends or foes? This question is misleading: it implies that parasites are not part of biodiversity. Greater integration of parasites into global biodiversity and ecosystem conservation efforts is required.