Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease and the Optimal Timing of Lung Transplantation

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) accounts for the largest proportion of respiratory deaths worldwide and was historically the leading indication for lung transplantation. The success of lung transplantation procedures is measured as survival benefit, calculated as survival with transplantation minus predicted survival without transplantation. In chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, it is difficult to show a clear and consistent survival benefit. Increasing knowledge of the risk factors, phenotypical heterogeneity, systemic manifestations, and their management helps improve our ability to select candidates and list those that will benefit the most from the procedure.

Time to NIV and mortality in AECOPD hospital admissions: an observational study into real world insights from National COPD Audits

Background

Randomised control trial (RCT)-derived survival figures for acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease admissions managed with non-invasive ventilation (NIV) have not been replicated in UK clinical audits. Subsequent guidelines have emphasised the need for timely NIV application.

Methods

Data from the 2008 and 2014 national chronic obstructive pulmonary disease audits was used to analyse the association between time to NIV and mortality.

Results

1032 patients received NIV in 2008, and 1612 in 2014. Overall mortality rates reduced between the audits from 24.9% in 2008 to 16.8% in 2014 but time to NIV lengthened. In 2014, 20.9% of patients received NIV within 60 min versus 24.9% in 2008 (p=0.001). The proportion of patients receiving NIV between 3 and 24 hours increased from 31.3% in 2008 to 39% in 2014 (p=0.001). Patients admitted with hypercapnic acidotic respiratory failure who received NIV within 3 hours had lower in-patient mortality than those who received NIV between 3 and 24 hours, 15.9% versus 18.4%, but this did not reach statistical significance (p=0.425), but acidotic patients receiving NIV >24 hours after admission had significantly higher mortality (28.9%, p=0.002). A second cohort admitted with hypercapnia but normal range pH, who developed later acidosis, had higher mortality (24.6%), compared with those acidotic on admission (18% p≤0.001) and an extremely high mortality when NIV was given >24 hours after admission (42.6%).

Conclusion

Survival rates for those treated with NIV has improved between the two audits but remains lower than reported in RCTs. Patients who developed acidosis after admission and received NIV later in the hospital stay have even higher mortality and deserve further study and clinical attention.

Effect of Physical Activity Coaching on Acute Care and Survival Among Patients With Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: A Pragmatic Randomized Clinical Trial

IMPORTANCE

While observational studies show that physical inactivity is associated with worse outcomes in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), there are no population-based trials to date testing the effectiveness of physical activity (PA) interventions to reduce acute care use or improve survival.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the long-term effectiveness of a community-based PA coaching intervention in patients with COPD.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Pragmatic randomized clinical trial with preconsent randomization to the 12-month Walk On! (WO) intervention or standard care (SC). Enrollment occurred from July 1, 2015, to July 31, 2017; follow-up ended in July 2018. The setting was Kaiser Permanente Southern California sites. Participants were patients 40 years or older who had any COPD-related acute care use in the previous 12 months; only patients assigned to WO were approached for consent to participate in intervention activities.

INTERVENTIONS

The WO intervention included collaborative monitoring of PA step counts, semiautomated step goal recommendations, individualized reinforcement, and peer/family support. Standard COPD care could include referrals to pulmonary rehabilitation.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The primary outcome was a composite binary measure of all-cause hospitalizations, observation stays, emergency department visits, and death using adjusted logistic regression in the 12 months after randomization. Secondary outcomes included self-reported PA, COPD-related acute care use, symptoms, quality of life, and cardiometabolic markers.

RESULTS

All 2707 eligible patients (baseline mean [SD] age, 72 [10] years; 53.7% female; 74.3% of white race/ethnicity; and baseline mean [SD] percent forced expiratory volume in the first second of expiration predicted, 61.0 [22.5]) were randomly assigned to WO (n = 1358) or SC (n = 1349). The intent-to-treat analysis showed no differences between WO and SC on the primary all-cause composite outcome (odds ratio [OR], 1.09; 95% CI, 0.92-1.28; P = .33) or in the individual outcomes. Prespecified, as-treated analyses compared outcomes between all SC and 321 WO patients who participated in any intervention activities (23.6% [321 of 1358] uptake). The as-treated, propensity score-weighted model showed nonsignificant positive estimates in favor of WO participants compared with SC on all-cause hospitalizations (OR, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.65-1.10; P = .21) and death (OR, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.35-1.11; P = .11). More WO participants reported engaging in PA compared with SC (47.4% [152 of 321] vs 30.7% [414 of 1349]; P < .001) and had improvements in the Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System 10 physical health domain at 6 months. There were no group differences in other secondary outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Participation in a PA coaching program by patients with a history of COPD exacerbations was insufficient to effect improvements in acute care use or survival in the primary analysis.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT02478359.

National trend of utilization, clinical and economic outcomes of transcatheter aortic valve replacement among patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

Objectives: We aimed to trend the utilization of transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) among COPD patients, compare its outcomes to surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR) and assess any social disparities in its outcomes. Background: Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) have been increasingly undergoing TAVR, but studies to evaluate the national trend of TAVR utilization and outcomes are still lacking. Methods: We conducted a retrospective observational study using a nationally representative database, the National Inpatient Sample (NIS). Results: From 2010 to 2014, the proportion of TAVR among COPD patients has increased from <1% to >50%. Patients who underwent TAVR were older, more likely to be women or white, carried more public insurance and had more comorbidities. There was no overall difference in mortality between TAVR and SAVR (2.74% vs. 2.59%, p = .860), and it has been consistently similar over time. However, patients with TAVR had shorter length of stay in the hospital after the procedure and were more likely to be discharged home than the SAVR group. Among the TAVR group, there were no gender, race or insurance disparities for in-hospital mortality, but female gender was related to lower discharge home rate, higher cost and longer stay in hospital. Conclusions: The rate of TAVR among COPD patients has been increasing nationally since 2011. In spite of higher comorbidities, TAVR did not show a difference in hospital mortality compared to SAVR but demonstrated shorter length of stay and more home discharges. This suggests that TAVR is a viable and potentially better option for patients with COPD.

Procalcitonin-guided antibiotic therapy in acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: An updated meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The benefit of a procalcitonin (PCT)-guided antibiotic strategy in acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) remains uncertain.

OBJECTIVES

This updated meta-analysis was performed to reevaluate the therapeutic potential of PCT-guided antibiotic therapy in AECOPD.

DATA SOURCES

We searched PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and ClinicalTrials.gov up to February 2019 to identify randomized controlled trials (RCTs) investigating the role of PCT-guided antibiotic strategies in treating adult patients with AECOPD. Relative risk (RR) or mean differences (MD) with accompanying 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated with a random-effects model.

RESULTS

Eight RCTs with a total of 1376 participants were included. The results suggested that a PCT-guided antibiotic strategy reduced antibiotic prescriptions (RR: 0.55; 95% CI: 0.39-0.76; P = .0003). However, antibiotic exposure duration (MD: -1.34; 95% CI: -2.83-0.16; P = .08), antibiotic use after discharge (RR: 1.61; 95% CI: 0.61-4.23; P = .34), clinical success (RR: 1.02; 95% CI: 0.96-1.08; P = .47), all-cause mortality (RR: 1.05; 95% CI: 0.72-1.55; P = .79), exacerbation at follow-up (RR: 0.97; 95% CI: 0.80-1.18; P = .78), readmission at follow-up (RR: 1.12; 95% CI: 0.82-1.53; P = .49), length of hospital stay (MD: -0.36; 95% CI: -1.36-0.64; P = .48), and adverse events (RR: 1.33; 95% CI: 0.79-2.23; P = .28) were similar in both groups.

IMPLICATIONS OF KEY FINDINGS

A PCT-guided antibiotic strategy is associated with fewer antibiotic prescriptions, and has similar efficacy and safety compared with standard antibiotic therapy in AECOPD patients.

The Peak Index: Spirometry Metric for Airflow Obstruction Severity and Heterogeneity

Rationale: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is characterized by airflow limitation. Spirometry loops are not smooth curves and have undulations and peaks that likely reflect heterogeneity of airflow.Objectives: To assess whether the Peak Index, the number of peaks adjusted for lung size, is associated with clinical outcomes.Methods: We analyzed spirometry data of 9,584 participants enrolled in the COPDGene study and counted the number of peaks in the descending part of the expiratory flow-volume curve from the peak expiratory flow to end-expiration. We adjusted the peaks count for the volume of the lungs from peak expiratory flow to end-expiration to derive the Peak Index. Multivariable regression analyses were performed to test associations between the Peak Index and lung function, respiratory morbidity, structural lung disease on computed tomography (CT), forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) decline, and mortality.Results: The Peak Index progressively increased from Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease stage 0 through 4 (P < 0.001). On multivariable analysis, the Peak Index was significantly associated with CT emphysema (adjusted β = 0.906; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.789 to 1.023; P < 0.001) and small airways disease (adjusted β = 1.367; 95% CI, 1.188 to 1.545; P < 0.001), St. George's Respiratory Questionnaire score (adjusted β = 1.075; 95% CI, 0.807 to 1.342; P < 0.001), 6-minute-walk distance (adjusted β = -1.993; 95% CI, -3.481 to -0.506; P < 0.001), and FEV1 change over time (adjusted β = -1.604; 95% CI, -2.691 to -0.516; P = 0.004), after adjustment for age, sex, race, body mass index, current smoking status, pack-years of smoking, and FEV1. The Peak Index was also associated with the BODE (body mass index, airflow obstruction, dyspnea, and exercise capacity) index and mortality (P < 0.001).Conclusions: The Peak Index is a spirometry metric that is associated with CT measures of lung disease, respiratory morbidity, lung function decline, and mortality.Clinical trial registered with www.clinicaltrials.gov (NCT00608764).

Independent factors associate with hospital mortality in patients with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease requiring intensive care unit admission: Focusing on the eosinophil-to-neutrophil ratio

Background

Factors associated with hospital mortality are unclear in patients with acute exacerbation of COPD (AECOPD) requiring intensive care unit (ICU) admission. We aimed to characterize these patients and identify factors associated with hospital mortality.

Patients and methods

We used a retrospective observational case-control design and recruited patients between January 2015 and March 2017. Of 146 patients enrolled, 24 (16.4%) died during their hospital stay, while 122 survived.

Results

Multivariate logistic regression analyses revealed factors associated with hospital mortality: age (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 1.12, 95% CI: 1.03–1.23), C-reactive protein (CRP) level >7.5 mg/dL at the emergency room (AOR 4.52, 95% CI: 1.27–16.04), peak eosinophil-to-neutrophil ratio (ENR)×10² on days 8–14 of treatment (AOR 0.22, 95% CI: 0.08–0.63), and in-hospital complications (AOR 4.23, 95% CI: 1.12–15.98) (all P<0.05). After receiver operating characteristic curve analyses, cutoff level for peak ENR×10² was 0.224. To examine the synergistic effects of CRP level and peak ENR, we divided patients into four groups: (G0, reference group) Peak ENR×10² >0.224 on days 8–14 and initial CRP <7.5 mg/dL; (G1) Peak ENR×10² >0.224 on days 8–14 and initial CRP >7.5 mg/dL; (G2) Peak ENR×10² <0.224 on days 8–14 and initial CRP <7.5 mg/dL; and (G3) Peak ENR×10² <0.224 on days 8–14 and initial CRP >7.5 mg/dL. For G2 and G3 patients, the AOR of mortality was significantly different from that of the reference group (G2: AOR 10.00, P = 0.020; G3: AOR 61.79, P<0.001). The relationship between 28-day mortality and the four groups was statistically significant (log-rank test, P<0.001).

Conclusion

Older age, initial CRP >7.5 mg/dL, peak ENR on days 8–14, and in-hospital complications were associated with hospital mortality in patients with AECOPD requiring ICU admission. Patients with both biomarkers, initial CRP >7.5 mg/dL, and peak ENR×10² <0.224 on days 8–14 of treatment, had an increased risk of hospital mortality.

Discriminative Accuracy of FEV1:FVC Thresholds for COPD-Related Hospitalization and Mortality

Importance

According to numerous current guidelines, the diagnosis of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) requires a ratio of the forced expiratory volume in the first second to the forced vital capacity (FEV1:FVC) of less than 0.70, yet this fixed threshold is based on expert opinion and remains controversial.

Objective

To determine the discriminative accuracy of various FEV1:FVC fixed thresholds for predicting COPD-related hospitalization and mortality.

Design, Setting, and Participants

The National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI) Pooled Cohorts Study harmonized and pooled data from 4 US general population-based cohorts (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study; Cardiovascular Health Study; Health, Aging, and Body Composition Study; and Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis). Participants aged 45 to 102 years were enrolled from 1987 to 2000 and received follow-up longitudinally through 2016.

Exposures

Presence of airflow obstruction, which was defined by a baseline FEV1:FVC less than a range of fixed thresholds (0.75 to 0.65) or less than the lower limit of normal as defined by Global Lung Initiative reference equations (LLN).

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary outcome was a composite of COPD hospitalization and COPD-related mortality, defined by adjudication or administrative criteria. The optimal fixed FEV1:FVC threshold was defined by the best discrimination for these COPD-related events as indexed using the Harrell C statistic from unadjusted Cox proportional hazards models. Differences in C statistics were compared with respect to less than 0.70 and less than LLN thresholds using a nonparametric approach.

Results

Among 24 207 adults in the pooled cohort (mean [SD] age at enrollment, 63 [10.5] years; 12 990 [54%] women; 16 794 [69%] non-Hispanic white; 15 181 [63%] ever smokers), complete follow-up was available for 11 077 (77%) at 15 years. During a median follow-up of 15 years, 3925 participants experienced COPD-related events over 340 757 person-years of follow-up (incidence density rate, 11.5 per 1000 person-years), including 3563 COPD-related hospitalizations and 447 COPD-related deaths. With respect to discrimination of COPD-related events, the optimal fixed threshold (0.71; C statistic for optimal fixed threshold, 0.696) was not significantly different from the 0.70 threshold (difference, 0.001 [95% CI, -0.002 to 0.004]) but was more accurate than the LLN threshold (difference, 0.034 [95% CI, 0.028 to 0.041]). The 0.70 threshold provided optimal discrimination in the subgroup analysis of ever smokers and in adjusted models.

Conclusions and Relevance

Defining airflow obstruction as FEV1:FVC less than 0.70 provided discrimination of COPD-related hospitalization and mortality that was not significantly different or was more accurate than other fixed thresholds and the LLN. These results support the use of FEV1:FVC less than 0.70 to identify individuals at risk of clinically significant COPD.

The relationship between serum levels of surfactant protein D in COPD exacerbation severity and mortality

Background/aim

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a major cause of morbidity and mortality. In COPD patients, various inflammatory markers such as cytokines and acute phase proteins, which show systemic inflammation in the circulation, increase during exacerbations. In our study, we aimed to determine the relationship between serum SP-D levels and exacerbation severity, clinical course of the disease, and early mortality after discharge.

Materials and methods

Fifty hospitalized patients with COPD acute exacerbation (46 male and 4 female) were recruited in this study. Thirty-three of the subjects (31 male and 2 female) were reevaluated after discharge. Venous blood samples were taken from all patients and followed up for exacerbation frequency, hospital admission, and mortality for 12 months.

Results

Serum SP-D levels in the stable period of the patients were lower than exacerbation (P < 0.001). The median exacerbation period SP-D level of the patients admitted to emergency department in the first month was statistically significantly higher than that of the patients who were not admitted (P < 0.05) after discharge. There was a correlation between the rate of emergency admission and serum SP-D levels during the 12-month period after discharge (P = 0.04 (r = 0.29)).

Conclusion

Our study showed that serum SP-D was found to be a useful biomarker in predicting emergency admission and predictor of the health status of COPD patients but did not predict early mortality after the exacerbation.

Recent trends in US mortality in early and middle adulthood: racial/ethnic disparities in inter-cohort patterns

BACKGROUND

A striking increase in the all-cause mortality of US middle-aged non-Hispanic Whites in the past two decades has been documented by previous studies. The inter-cohort patterns in US mortality, as well as their racial/ethnic disparities, are still unclear.

METHODS

Using official mortality data, we study US annual mortality rates for ages 25-54 from 1990 to 2016 by gender and race/ethnicity. We conduct an age-period-cohort analysis to disentangle the period and cohort forces driving the absolute changes in mortality across cohorts. Nine leading causes of death are also explored to explain the inter-cohort mortality patterns and their racial/ethnic disparities.

RESULTS

We find cohort-specific elevated mortality trends for gender- and race/ethnicity-specific populations. For non-Hispanic Blacks and Hispanics, Baby Boomers have increased mortality trends compared with other cohorts. For non-Hispanic White females, it is late-Gen Xers and early-Gen Yers for whom the mortality trends are higher than other cohorts. For non-Hispanic White males, the elevated mortality pattern is found for Baby Boomers, late-Gen Xers, and early-Gen Yers. The mortality pattern among Baby Boomers is at least partially driven by mortality related to drug poisoning, suicide, external causes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and HIV/AIDS for all race and gender groups affected. The elevated mortality patterns among late-Gen Xers and early-Gen Yers are at least partially driven by mortality related to drug poisonings and alcohol-related diseases for non-Hispanic Whites. Differential patterns of drug poisoning-related mortality play an important role in the racial/ethnic disparities in these mortality patterns.

CONCLUSIONS

We find substantial racial/ethnic disparities in inter-cohort mortality patterns. Our findings also point to the unique challenges faced by younger generations.

[Severe COPD can benefit from endobronchial valves]

Lung volume reduction using endobronchial one-way valves (EBV) have been introduced as a new treatment for end-stage COPD and emphysema. They cause the lung parenchyma distal to the valve to collapse by causing an atelectasis. Nine randomized controlled trials (RCTs) studying the effects of insertion of EBVs in patients with severe emphysema were identified. In two of the RCTs both lungs were treated whereas in seven a unilateral approach was used. In comparison with optimal medical therapy, unilateral placement of EBVs resulted in clinically and statistically significant improvements in lung function, quality of life, and physical capacity in patients with heterogeneous or homogeneous emphysema. There were no significant differences in mortality. The frequency of serious complications and adverse events, especially pneumothorax, was higher. Bilateral EBV treatment did not show corresponding improvements in the outcome variables.

Socioeconomic status (SES) and 30-day hospital readmissions for chronic obstructive pulmonary (COPD) disease: A population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are more likely to be readmitted than patients with other chronic medical conditions, yet knowledge regarding such readmissions is limited. We aimed to determine factors associated with readmission within 30 days of a COPD hospitalization or death with an emphasis on examining aspects of socioeconomic status and specific comorbidities.

METHODS

A population-based cohort study was conducted using health administrative data from Ontario, Canada. All hospitalizations for COPD between 2004 and 2014 were considered. The primary exposures were socioeconomic status as measured by residential instability (an ecologic variable), and comorbidities such as cardiovascular disease and cancer. Other domains of socioeconomic status were considered as secondary exposures. Logistic regression with generalized estimating equations was used to examine the effect of exposures, adjusting for other patient factors, on 30-day readmission or death.

RESULTS

There were 126,013 patients contributing to 252,756 index COPD hospitalizations from 168 Ontario hospitals. Of these hospitalizations, 19.4% resulted in a readmission and 2.8% resulted in death within 30 days. After adjusting for other factors, readmissions or death were modestly more likely among people with the highest residential instability compared to the lowest (OR 1.05, 95% CI 1.01-1.09). Comorbidities such as cardiovascular disease and cancer, as well as other aspects of low socioeconomic status also increased readmission or death risk.

INTERPRETATION

Socioeconomic status, measured in various ways, and many comorbidities predict 30-day readmission or death in patients hospitalized for COPD. Strategies that address these factors may help reduce readmissions and death.

Oxygen therapy in suspected acute myocardial infarction and concurrent normoxemic chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a prespecified subgroup analysis from the DETO2X-AMI trial

BACKGROUND

The DETermination of the role of Oxygen in suspected Acute Myocardial Infarction (DETO2X-AMI) trial did not find any benefit of oxygen therapy compared to ambient air in normoxemic patients with suspected acute myocardial infarction. Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease may both benefit and be harmed by supplemental oxygen. Thus we evaluated the effect of routine oxygen therapy compared to ambient air in normoxemic chronic obstructive pulmonary disease patients with suspected acute myocardial infarction.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A total of 6629 patients with suspected acute myocardial infarction were randomly assigned in the DETO2X-AMI trial to oxygen or ambient air. In the oxygen group (n=3311) and the ambient air group (n=3318), 155 and 141 patients, respectively, had chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (prevalence of 4.5%). Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease were older, had more comorbid conditions and experienced a twofold higher risk of death at one year (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: 32/296 (10.8%) vs. non-chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: 302/6333 (4.8%)). Oxygen therapy compared to ambient air was not associated with improved outcomes at 365 days (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: all-cause mortality hazard ratio (HR) 0.99, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.50-1.99, P_interaction=0.96); cardiovascular death HR 0.80, 95% CI 0.32-2.04, P_interaction=0.59); rehospitalisation with acute myocardial infarction or death HR 1.27, 95% CI 0.71-2.28, P_interaction=0.46); hospitalisation for heart failure or death HR 1.08, 95% CI 0.61-1.91, P_interaction=0.77]); there were no significant treatment-by-chronic obstructive pulmonary disease interactions.

CONCLUSIONS

Although chronic obstructive pulmonary disease patients had twice the mortality rate compared to non-chronic obstructive pulmonary disease patients, this prespecified subgroup analysis from the DETO2X-AMI trial on oxygen therapy versus ambient air in normoxemic chronic obstructive pulmonary disease patients with suspected acute myocardial infarction revealed no evidence for benefit of routine oxygen therapy consistent with the main trial's findings.

CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION

NCT02290080.

Serum biomarkers and outcomes in patients with moderate COPD: a substudy of the randomised SUMMIT trial

Rationale

Systemic levels of C reactive protein (CRP), surfactant protein D (SPD), fibrinogen, soluble receptor of activated glycogen end-product (sRAGE) and club cell protein 16 (CC-16) have been associated with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) outcomes. However, they require validation in different cohorts.

Objectives

Relate systemic levels of those proteins to forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) decline, exacerbations, hospitalisations and mortality in COPD patients (FEV1 of ≥50 and ≤70% predicted) and heightened cardiovascular risk in a substudy of the Study to Understand Mortality and MorbidITy trial.

Methods

Participants were randomised to daily inhalations of placebo, vilanterol 25 µg (VI), fluticasone furoate 100 µg (FF) or their combination (VI 25/FF 100) and followed quarterly until 1000 deaths in the overall 16 485 participants occurred. Biomarker blood samples were available from 1673 patients. The FEV1 decline (mL/year), COPD exacerbations, hospitalisations and death were determined. Associations between biomarker levels and outcomes were adjusted by age and gender.

Results

Systemic levels of CC-16, CRP, sRAGE, SPD and fibrinogen did not relate to baseline FEV1, FEV1 decline, exacerbations or hospitalisations. Fibrinogen and CRP were related to mortality over a median follow-up of 2.3 years. Only the CC-16 changed with study therapy (VI, FF and FF/VI, p<0.01) at 3 months.

Conclusions

In COPD, systemic levels of CC-16, CRP, sRAGE, SPD and fibrinogen were not associated with FEV1 decline, exacerbations or hospitalisations. These results cast doubts about the clinical usefulness of the systemic levels of these proteins as surrogate markers of these COPD outcomes. The study confirms that CRP and fibrinogen are associated with increased risk of death in patients with COPD.

Trial registration number

NCT01313676.

Late presentation of acute hypercapnic respiratory failure carries a high mortality risk in COPD patients treated with ward-based NIV

INTRODUCTION

Non-invasive ventilation (NIV) is recommended for treatment of acute hypercapnic respiratory failure (AHRF) refractory to medical management in patients with COPD. This study investigated the relationship between time from hospital presentation to diagnosis of AHRF and in-hospital mortality.

METHODS

Retrospective analysis of hospitalised COPD patients treated with a first episode of ward-based NIV for AHRF at a large UK teaching hospital between 2004 and 2017. Data collected prospectively as part of NIV service evaluation. Multivariable logistic regression performed to identify predictors of in-hospital mortality.

RESULTS

In total, 547 unique patients were studied comprising 245 males (44.8%), median age 70.6 years, median FEV1% predicted 34%. Overall in-hospital mortality was 19% (n = 104); median survival was 1.7 years. In univariate analysis, a longer time between hospital presentation to diagnosis of AHRF was associated with in-hospital mortality (median [IQR]: 8.7 [0.7-75.8] hours vs. 1.9 [0.3-13.6] hours, p < 0.0001). In multivariable logistic regression, significant predictors of in-hospital mortality were AHRF >24 h after hospital presentation (odds ratio [95% CI]: 2.29 [1.33-3.95], p = 0.003), pneumonia on admission (1.81 [1.07-3.08], p = 0.027), increased age (1.10 [1.07-1.14], p < 0.001) and NIV as ceiling of treatment (5.86 [2.87-11.94], p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Hospitalised COPD patients with late presentation of AHRF, requiring acute ward-based NIV, may have increased in-hospital mortality. These patients may benefit from closer monitoring and earlier specialist respiratory review.

Predicting COPD 1-year mortality using prognostic predictors routinely measured in primary care

BACKGROUND

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a major cause of mortality. Patients with advanced disease often have a poor quality of life, such that guidelines recommend providing palliative care in their last year of life. Uptake and use of palliative care in advanced COPD is low; difficulty in predicting 1-year mortality is thought to be a major contributing factor.

METHODS

We identified two primary care COPD cohorts using UK electronic healthcare records (Clinical Practice Research Datalink). The first cohort was randomised equally into training and test sets. An external dataset was drawn from a second cohort. A risk model to predict mortality within 12 months was derived from the training set using backwards elimination Cox regression. The model was given the acronym BARC based on putative prognostic factors including body mass index and blood results (B), age (A), respiratory variables (airflow obstruction, exacerbations, smoking) (R) and comorbidities (C). The BARC index predictive performance was validated in the test set and external dataset by assessing calibration and discrimination. The observed and expected probabilities of death were assessed for increasing quartiles of mortality risk (very low risk, low risk, moderate risk, high risk). The BARC index was compared to the established index scores body mass index, obstructive, dyspnoea and exacerbations (BODEx), dyspnoea, obstruction, smoking and exacerbations (DOSE) and age, dyspnoea and obstruction (ADO).

RESULTS

Fifty-four thousand nine hundred ninety patients were eligible from the first cohort and 4931 from the second cohort. Eighteen variables were included in the BARC, including age, airflow obstruction, body mass index, smoking, exacerbations and comorbidities. The risk model had acceptable predictive performance (test set: C-index = 0.79, 95% CI 0.78-0.81, D-statistic = 1.87, 95% CI 1.77-1.96, calibration slope = 0.95, 95% CI 0.9-0.99; external dataset: C-index = 0.67, 95% CI 0.65-0.7, D-statistic = 0.98, 95% CI 0.8-1.2, calibration slope = 0.54, 95% CI 0.45-0.64) and acceptable accuracy predicting the probability of death (probability of death in 1 year, n high-risk group, test set: expected = 0.31, observed = 0.30; external dataset: expected = 0.22, observed = 0.27). The BARC compared favourably to existing index scores that can also be applied without specialist respiratory variables (area under the curve: BARC = 0.78, 95% CI 0.76-0.79; BODEx = 0.48, 95% CI 0.45-0.51; DOSE = 0.60, 95% CI 0.57-0.61; ADO = 0.68, 95% CI 0.66-0.69, external dataset: BARC = 0.70, 95% CI 0.67-0.72; BODEx = 0.41, 95% CI 0.38-0.45; DOSE = 0.52, 95% CI 0.49-0.55; ADO = 0.57, 95% CI 0.54-0.60).

CONCLUSION

The BARC index performed better than existing tools in predicting 1-year mortality. Critically, the risk score only requires routinely collected non-specialist information which, therefore, could help identify patients seen in primary care that may benefit from palliative care.

Aortic Pulse Wave Velocity as a Measure of Cardiovascular Risk in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: Two-Year Follow-Up Data from the ARCADE Study

Background and objectives: Cardiovascular (CV) disease is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Patients with COPD have increased arterial stiffness, which may predict future CV risk. However, the development of arterial stiffness in COPD has not yet been studied prospectively. The Assessment of Risk in Chronic Airways Disease Evaluation (ARCADE) is a longitudinal study of CV risk and other comorbidities in COPD. The aims of this analysis were to explore factors associated with aortic pulse wave velocity (aPWV) at baseline and to describe the progression of aPWV in patients with COPD and comparators over two years. Materials and methods: At baseline, 520 patients with COPD (confirmed by spirometry) and 150 comparators free from respiratory disease were assessed for body composition, blood pressure, aPWV, noninvasive measures of cardiac output, inflammatory biomarkers, and exercise capacity. This was repeated after two years, and mortality cases and causes were also recorded. Results: At baseline, aPWV was greater in COPD patients 9.8 (95% confidence interval (CI) 9.7–10) versus comparators 8.7 (8.5–9.1) m/s (p < 0.01) after adjustments for age, mean arterial pressure (MAP), and heart rate. Mean blood pressure was 98 ± 11 in COPD patients and 95 ± 10 mmHg in comparators at baseline (p = 0.004). After two years, 301 patients and 105 comparators were fully reassessed. The mean (95% CI) aPWV increased similarly in patients 0.44 (0.25–0.63) and comparators 0.46 (0.23–0.69) m/s, without a change in blood pressure. At the two-year follow-up, there were 29 (6%) deaths in COPD patients, with the majority due to respiratory causes, with an overall dropout of 43% of patients with COPD and 30% of comparators. Conclusions: This was the first large longitudinal study of CV risk in COPD patients, and we confirmed greater aPWV in COPD patients than comparators after adjustments for confounding factors. After two years, patients and comparators had a similar increase of almost 0.5 m/s aPWV.

Feature-weighted survival learning machine for COPD failure prediction

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) yields a high rate of failures such as hospital readmission and death in the United States, Canada and worldwide. COPD failure imposes a significant social and economic burden on society, and predicting such failure is crucial to early intervention and decision-making, making this a very important research issue. Current analysis methods address all risk factors in medical records indiscriminately and therefore generally suffer from ineffectiveness in real applications, mainly because many of these factors relate weakly to prediction. Numerous studies have been done on selecting factors for survival analysis, but their inherent shortcomings render these methods inapplicable for failure prediction in the context of unknown and intricate correlation patterns among risk factors. These difficulties have prompted us to design a new Cox-based learning machine that embeds the feature weighting technique into failure prediction. In order to improve predictive accuracy, we propose two weighting criteria to maximize the area under the ROC curve (AUC) and the concordance index (C-index), respectively. At the same time, we perform a Dirichlet-based regularization on weights, making differences between factor relevance clearly visible while maintaining the model's high predictive ability. The experimental results on real-life COPD data collected from patients hospitalized at the Centre Hospitalier Universitaire de Sherbrooke (CHUS) demonstrate the effectiveness of our learning machine and its great promise in clinical applications.

Breathlessness and incidence of COPD, cardiac events and all-cause mortality: A 44-year follow-up from middle age throughout life

Background

Breathlessness is prevalent in the general population and may be associated with adverse health outcomes. This study aimed to evaluate the association of breathlessness with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) events, cardiac events and all-cause mortality from middle-age throughout life.

Methods

Breathlessness was measured in 699, 55-year old men residing in Malmö, Sweden using modified Medical Research Council (mMRC). COPD events (hospitalisation, death or diagnosis) cardiac events and all-cause mortality was assessed using The Swedish Causes of Death Register and Hospital Discharge Register. Data was analyzed using Cox- and competing risks (Fine-Gray) regression analysis.

Results

695 (99%) of 699 participants died and four emigrated during follow up. Eighty-seven (12%) had mMRC = 1 and 19 (3%) had mMRC≥2. Breathlessness was associated with COPD events; adjusted Sub-Hazard Ratio 2.1 (95% CI, 1.2–3.6) for mMRC = 1 and 7.5 (2.6–21.7) for mMRC ≥ 2 but not associated with cardiac events when adjusting for competing events and confounding. Breathlessness was associated increased all- cause mortality (Hazard Ratios of 1.4 (1.1–1.7) (mMRC = 1) and 3.4 (2.1–5.6) (mMRC ≥ 2)).

Conclusion

Breathlessness is associated with increased risk of COPD events and increase in all-cause mortality from age 55 until death.

Standard expected years of life lost (SEYLL) due to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in Poland from 1999 to 2014

Purpose

The aim of the study is to analyze the standard expected years of life lost (SEYLL) due to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in Poland from 1999 to 2014 by sex and place of residence.

Methods

The number of deaths due to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (J40 –J44 and J47 according to ICD-10) over the period 1999 to 2014 was analyzed based on data obtained from the Central Statistical Office in Poland. Standard expected years of life lost due to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease were calculated by sex and place of residence according to the living population (SEYLL_p) and the number of deaths caused by the disease (SEYLL_d). Changes in the calculated measures were evaluated using joinpoint models. The annual percentage change (APC) and the average annual percentage change (AAPC) were also calculated.

Results

The study revealed that COPD contributed to 1.8% of the total number of deaths which occurred between 1999 and 2014. The greatest decrease in the analyzed measures was observed among males from rural areas (p<0.05) (SEYLL: AAPC = -1.6; 95%CI: -3.0;-0.2; SEYLL_p: AAPC = -2.0; 95%CI: -3.4;-0.6; SEYLL_d: AAPC = -1.1; 95%CI: -1.2;-0.9). A statistically significant increase in the SEYLL and SEYLL_p indices was observed among female city dwellers (SEYLL: AAPC = 2.4; 95%CI:0.7;4.0 and SEYLL_p: AAPC = 2.4; 95%CI: 0.8;4.1).

Conclusions

All studied measures were higher in the male group than in the female group, regardless of the place of residence. A male who died of COPD in Poland in 2014 potentially lost 14.9 years of life, whereas a female lost 14.2 years.

Once daily long-acting beta2-agonists and long-acting muscarinic antagonists in a combined inhaler versus placebo for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

BACKGROUND

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a respiratory condition causing accumulation of mucus in the airways, cough, and breathlessness; the disease is progressive and is the fourth most common cause of death worldwide. Current treatment strategies for COPD are multi-modal and aim to reduce morbidity and mortality and increase patients' quality of life by slowing disease progression and preventing exacerbations. Fixed-dose combinations (FDCs) of a long-acting beta₂-agonist (LABA) plus a long-acting muscarinic antagonist (LAMA) delivered via a single inhaler are approved by regulatory authorities in the USA, Europe, and Japan for the treatment of COPD. Several LABA/LAMA FDCs are available and recent meta-analyses have clarified their utility versus their mono-components in COPD. Evaluation of the efficacy and safety of once-daily LABA/LAMA FDCs versus placebo will facilitate the comparison of different FDCs in future network meta-analyses.

OBJECTIVES

We assessed the evidence for once-daily LABA/LAMA combinations (delivered in a single inhaler) versus placebo on clinically meaningful outcomes in patients with stable COPD.

SEARCH METHODS

We identified trials from Cochrane Airways' Specialised Register (CASR) and also conducted a search of the US National Institutes of Health Ongoing Trials Register ClinicalTrials.gov (www.clinicaltrials.gov) and the World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (apps.who.int/trialsearch). We searched CASR and trial registries from their inception to 3 December 2018; we imposed no restriction on language of publication.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included parallel-group and cross-over randomised controlled trials (RCTs) comparing once-daily LABA/LAMA FDC versus placebo. We included studies reported as full-text, those published as abstract only, and unpublished data. We excluded very short-term trials with a duration of less than 3 weeks. We included adults (≥ 40 years old) with a diagnosis of stable COPD. We included studies that allowed participants to continue using their ICS during the trial as long as the ICS was not part of the randomised treatment.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors independently screened the search results to determine included studies, extracted data on prespecified outcomes of interest, and assessed the risk of bias of included studies; we resolved disagreements by discussion with a third review author. Where possible, we used a random-effects model to meta-analyse extracted data. We rated all outcomes using the GRADE (Grades of Recommendation, Assessment, Development and Evaluation) system and presented results in 'Summary of findings' tables.

MAIN RESULTS

We identified and included 22 RCTs randomly assigning 8641 people with COPD to either once-daily LABA/LAMA FDC (6252 participants) or placebo (3819 participants); nine studies had a cross-over design. Studies had a duration of between three and 52 weeks (median 12 weeks). The mean age of participants across the included studies ranged from 59 to 65 years and in 21 of 22 studies, participants had GOLD stage II or III COPD. Concomitant inhaled corticosteroid (ICS) use was permitted in all of the included studies (where stated); across the included studies, between 28% to 58% of participants were using ICS at baseline. Six studies evaluated the once-daily combination of IND/GLY (110/50 μg), seven studies evaluated TIO/OLO (2.5/5 or 5/5 μg), eight studies evaluated UMEC/VI (62.5/5, 125/25 or 500/25 μg) and one study evaluated ACD/FOR (200/6, 200/12 or 200/18 μg); all LABA/LAMA combinations were compared with placebo.The risk of bias was generally considered to be low or unknown (insufficient detail provided), with only one study per domain considered to have a high risk of bias except for the domain 'other bias' which was determined to be at high risk of bias in four studies (in three studies, disease severity was greater at baseline in participants receiving LABA/LAMA compared with participants receiving placebo, which would be expected to shift the treatment effect in favour of placebo).Compared to the placebo, the pooled results for the primary outcomes for the once-daily LABA/LAMA arm were as follows: all-cause mortality, OR 1.88 (95% CI 0.81 to 4.36, low-certainty evidence); all-cause serious adverse events (SAEs), OR 1.06 (95% CI 0.88 to 1.28, high-certainty evidence); acute exacerbations of COPD (AECOPD), OR 0.53 (95% CI 0.36 to 0.78, moderate-certainty evidence); adjusted St George's Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ) score, MD -4.08 (95% CI -4.80 to -3.36, high-certainty evidence); proportion of SGRQ responders, OR 1.75 (95% CI 1.54 to 1.99). Compared with placebo, the pooled results for the secondary outcomes for the once-daily LABA/LAMA arm were as follows: adjusted trough forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1), MD 0.20 L (95% CI 0.19 to 0.21, moderate-certainty evidence); adjusted peak FEV1, MD 0.31 L (95% CI 0.29 to 0.32, moderate-certainty evidence); and all-cause AEs, OR 0.95 (95% CI 0.86 to 1.04; high-certainty evidence). No studies reported data for the 6-minute walk test. The results were generally consistent across subgroups for different LABA/LAMA combinations and doses.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Compared with placebo, once-daily LABA/LAMA (either IND/GLY, UMEC/VI or TIO/OLO) via a combination inhaler is associated with a clinically significant improvement in lung function and health-related quality of life in patients with mild-to-moderate COPD; UMEC/VI appears to reduce the rate of exacerbations in this population. These conclusions are supported by moderate or high certainty evidence based on studies with an observation period of up to one year.

Neoantigens in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease and Lung Cancer: A Point of View

The goal of this manuscript is to explore the role of clinical proteomics for detecting mutations in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and lung cancer by mass spectrometry-based technology. COPD and lung cancer caused by smoke inhalation are most likely linked by challenging the immune system via partly shared pathways. Genome-wide association studies have identified several single nucleotide polymorphisms which predispose an increased susceptibility to COPD and lung cancer. In lung cancer, this leads to coding mutations in the affected tissues, development of neoantigens, and different functionality and abundance of proteins in specific pathways. If a similar reasoning can also be applied in COPD will be discussed. The technology of mass spectrometry has developed into an advanced technology for proteome research detecting mutated peptides or proteins and finding relevant molecular mechanisms that will enable predicting the response to immunotherapy in COPD and lung cancer patients.

Breaking Barriers: Prospective Study of a Cohort of Advanced Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Patients To Describe Their Survival and End-of-Life Palliative Care Requirements

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Consensus has been reached on the need to integrate palliative care in the follow-up examinations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients. We analyzed the survival from the initiation of follow-up by a palliative home care team (PHCT) and described the needs and end-of-life process.

SETTING AND DESIGN

This study was a prospective observational cohort study of advanced COPD patients referred to a PHCT. Sociodemographic variables, survival from the start date of follow-up using the Kaplan-Meier model, health resource consumption, perceived quality of life, main symptomatology, opioid use, and advanced care planning (ACP) were analyzed.

RESULTS

Sixty patients were included. The median survival was 8.3 months. Forty-two patients died at the end of the study (85% at home or in palliative care units). The most frequent cause of death was respiratory failure in 39 patients (93%), with 29 of these patients requiring sedation (69%). Dyspnea at rest, with an average of 5 (standard deviation [SD] 2) points, was the main symptom. Fifty-five patients (91%) required opioids for symptom control. The median score in the St. George's Respiratory Questionnaire was 72 (SD 13). The mean number of visits by the home team was 7 (SD 6.5). The mean number of admissions during the monitoring period was 1.5 (SD 0.15).

CONCLUSIONS

The characteristics of the cohort appear suitable for a PHCT. The follow-up care provided by our multidisciplinary unit decreased the number of hospitalizations, favored the development of ACP, and enabled death at home or in palliative care units.

Validation of the BAP-65 score for prediction of in-hospital death or use of mechanical ventilation in patients presenting to the emergency department with an acute exacerbation of COPD: a retrospective multi-center study from the Italian Society of Emergency Medicine (SIMEU)

Exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPDE) frequently require hospitalizations, may necessitate of invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV), and are associated with a remarkable in-hospital mortality. The BAP-65 score is a risk assessment model (RAM) based on simple variables, that has been proposed for the prediction of these adverse outcomes in patients with COPDE. If showed to be accurate, the BAP-65 RAM might be used to guide the patients management, in terms of destination and treatment. We conducted a retrospective, multicentre, chart-review study, on patients attending the ED for a COPDE during 2014. The aim of the study was the validation of the BAP-65 RAM for the prediction of in-hospital death or use of IMV (composite primary outcome). We assessed the discrimination and the prognostic performance of the BAP-65 RAM. We enrolled 2908 patients from 20 centres across Italy. The mean (standard deviation) age was 76 (11) years, and 38% of patients were female. The composite outcome occurred in 5.3% of patients. The AUROC of BAP-65 for the composite outcome was 0.64 (95%CI 0.59-0.68). The sensitivity of BAP-65 score ≥ 4 to predict in-hospital mortality was 44% (95% CI 34%-55%), the specificity was 84% (95% CI 82%-85%), the positive predictive value was 9% (95% CI 6%-12%), and the negative predictive value was 98% (95% CI 97%-98%). CONCLUSIONS: In patients attending Italian EDs with a COPDE, we found that the BAP-65 score did not have sufficient accuracy to stratify patients upon their risk of severe in-hospital outcomes.