Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) in Ethiopia: analysis of a national serological survey

Background

Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is a contagious viral disease of small ruminants in Africa and Asia. In 1999, probably the largest survey on PPR ever conducted in Africa was initiated in Ethiopia where 13 651 serum samples from 7 out of the 11 regions were collected and analyzed by competitive enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (cELISA). The objective of this paper is to present the results of this survey and discuss their practical implications for PPR-endemic regions.

Methods

We explored the spatial distribution of PPR in Ethiopia and we investigated risk factors for positive serological status. Intracluster correlation coefficients (ρ), were calculated for 43 wereda (administrative units).

Results

Seroprevalence was very heterogeneous across regions and even more across wereda, with prevalence estimates ranging from 0% to 52.5%. Two groups of weredas could be distinguished on the basis of the estimated ρ: a group with very low ρ (ρ < 0.12) and a group with very high ρ (ρ > 0.37).

Conclusion

The results indicate that PPRV circulation has been very heterogeneous, the values for the ρ may reflect the endemic or epidemic presence of the virus or the various degrees of mixing of animals in the different areas and production systems. Age appears as a risk factor for seropositive status, the linear effect seeming to confirm in the field that PPRV is highly immunogenic. Our estimates of intracluster correlation may prove useful in the design of serosurveys in other countries where PPR is of importance.

Poxviral disease in red squirrels Sciurus vulgaris in the UK: spatial and temporal trends of an emerging threat

The squirrel poxvirus (SQPV) is the probable mediator of apparent competition between the introduced invading gray squirrel (Sciurus carolinensis) and the red squirrel (Sciurus vulgaris) in the UK, and modeling studies have shown that this viral disease has had a significant impact on the decline of the red squirrel in the UK. However, given our limited understanding of the epidemiology of the disease, and more generally the effects of invasive species on parasite ecology, there is a need to investigate the transmission dynamics and the relative pathogenicity of the virus between species. We aimed to increase our knowledge of these processes through an empirical study in which we: (i) used pathological signs and transmission electron microscopy (TEM) to diagnose SQPV disease in red squirrels found dead during scanning surveillance between 1993 and 2005; (ii) detected antibody to SQPV using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) in the same animals; and (iii) mapped cases of the disease, and the gray squirrel distribution, using a geographical information system. We analyzed the distribution of cases of SQPV disease according to woodland type, a measure of squirrel density. SQPV disease occurred only in areas of England also inhabited by seropositive gray squirrels, and as the geographical range of gray squirrels expanded, SQPV disease occurred in these new gray squirrel habitats, supporting a role for the gray squirrel as a reservoir host of the virus. There was a delay between the establishment of invading gray squirrels and cases of the disease in red squirrels which implies gray squirrels must reach a threshold number or density before the virus is transmitted to red squirrels. The spatial and temporal trend in SQPV disease outbreaks suggested that SQPV disease will have a significant effect on Scottish populations of red squirrels within 25 years. The even spread of cases of disease across months suggested a direct rather than vector-borne transmission route is more likely. Eight juvenile and sub-adult free-living red squirrels apparently survived exposure to SQPV by mounting an immune response, the first evidence of immunity to SQPV in free-living red squirrels, which possibly suggests a changing host-parasite relationship and that the use of a vaccine may be an effective management tool to protect remnant red squirrel populations.

Use of data mining techniques to investigate disease risk classification as a proxy for compromised biosecurity of cattle herds in Wales

Background

Biosecurity is at the forefront of the fight against infectious diseases in animal populations. Few research studies have attempted to identify and quantify the effectiveness of biosecurity against disease introduction or presence in cattle farms and, when done, they have relied on the collection of on-farm data. Data on environmental, animal movement, demographic/husbandry systems and density disease determinants can be collated without requiring additional specific on-farm data collection activities, since they have already been collected for some other purposes. The aim of this study was to classify cattle herds according to their risk of disease presence as a proxy for compromised biosecurity in the cattle population of Wales in 2004 for risk-based surveillance purposes.

Results

Three data mining methods have been applied: logistic regression, classification trees and factor analysis. Using the cattle holding population in Wales, a holding was considered positive if at least bovine TB or one of the ten most frequently diagnosed infectious or transmissible non-notifiable diseases in England and Wales, according to the Veterinary Investigation Surveillance Report (VIDA) had been diagnosed in 2004. High-risk holdings can be described as open large cattle herds located in high-density cattle areas with frequent movements off to many locations within Wales. Additional risks are associated with the holding being a dairy enterprise and with a large farming area.

Conclusion

This work has demonstrated the potential of mining various livestock-relevant databases to obtain generic criteria for individual cattle herd biosecurity risk classification. Despite the data and analytical constraints the described risk profiles are highly specific and present variable sensitivity depending on the model specifications. Risk profiling of farms provides a tool for designing targeted surveillance activities for endemic or emerging diseases, regardless of the prior amount of information available on biosecurity at farm level. As the delivery of practical evidence-based information and advice is one of the priorities of Defra's new Animal Health and Welfare Strategy (AHWS), data-driven models, derived from existing databases, need to be developed that can then be used to inform activities during outbreaks of endemic diseases and to help design surveillance activities.

The risk of death: the confidential enquiry into perioperative small animal fatalities

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the risks of anaesthetic and sedation-related mortality in companion animals in the UK. (The Confidential Enquiry into Perioperative Small Animal Fatalities, CEPSAF).

STUDY DESIGN

A prospective cohort study with nested case-control study.

ANIMAL POPULATION

All small animals anaesthetized and sedated at participating centres between June 2002 and June 2004.

METHODS

Patient outcomes at 48 hours (alive, dead and killed) were recorded. Anaesthetic and sedation-related death was defined as death where surgical or pre-existing medical causes did not solely cause death. Species-specific risks of anaesthetic-related death and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were calculated. Risks were also estimated in the sub-sets of dogs, cats and rabbits that were either healthy or sick (ASA 1-2 and 3-5, respectively).

RESULTS

One hundred and seventeen veterinary practices participated in the study and 98 036 dogs, 79 178 cats and 8209 rabbits were anaesthetized and sedated. Overall risks of anaesthetic and sedation-related death in dogs were 0.17% (1 in 601, 95% CI 0.14-0.19%), in cats 0.24% (1 in 419, 95% CI 0.20-0.27%) and in rabbits 1.39% (1 in 72, 95% CI 1.14-1.64%) within 48 hours of the procedure. In healthy dogs, cats and rabbits, the risks were estimated to be 0.05% (1 in 1849, 95% CI 0.04-0.07%), 0.11%, (1 in 895, 95% CI 0.09-0.14%) and 0.73% (1 in 137, 95% CI 0.54-0.93%), respectively. In sick dogs, cats and rabbits, the risks were 1.33%, (1 in 75, 95% CI 1.07-1.60%), 1.40% (1 in 71, 95% CI 1.12-1.68%) and 7.37% (1 in 14, 95% CI 5.20-9.54%), respectively. Postoperative deaths accounted for 47% of deaths in dogs, 61% in cats and 64% in rabbits. Most other small animal species had higher mortality risks.

CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE

Small animal anaesthesia appears to be increasingly safe. Greater patient care in the postoperative period could reduce fatalities.

Risk factors for anaesthetic-related death in cats: results from the confidential enquiry into perioperative small animal fatalities (CEPSAF) †

BACKGROUND

Cats are commonly anaesthetized in veterinary practice, but recent figures describing the frequency of or risk factors for anaesthetic-related death are not available. The aims of this study were to address these deficiencies.

METHODS

A nested case-control study was undertaken in 117 UK veterinary centres. All anaesthetic and sedation procedures and anaesthetic and sedation-related deaths (i.e. 'cases') occurring within 48 h were recorded. Details of patient, procedure, and perioperative management were recorded for all cases and randomly selected non-deaths (controls). A detailed statistical model of factors associated with anaesthetic and sedation-related death was constructed.

RESULTS

Between June 2002 and June 2004, 175 deaths were classified as anaesthetic and sedation-related and 14 additional deaths (with insufficient information to be excluded) were included for the estimation of risk. During the study, 79 178 anaesthetic and sedation procedures were recorded and the overall risk of anaesthetic and sedation-related death was 0.24% (95% CI 0.20-0.27). Factors associated with increased odds of anaesthetic-related death were poor health status (ASA physical status classification), increasing age, extremes of weight, increasing procedural urgency and complexity, endotracheal intubation, and fluid therapy. Pulse monitoring and pulse oximetry were associated with reduced odds.

CONCLUSIONS

The risk of anaesthetic-related death in cats appears to have decreased since the last published study in the UK. The results should aid the preoperative identification of cats at greatest risk. Greater care with endotracheal intubation and fluid administration are recommended, and pulse and pulse oximetry monitoring should be routinely implemented in cats.

Spatial risk assessment of Rift Valley fever in Senegal

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is broadening its geographic range and is increasingly becoming a disease of global importance with potentially severe consequences for human and animal health. We conducted a spatial risk assessment of RVF in Senegal using serologic data from 16,738 animals in 211 locations. Bayesian spatial regression models were developed with interpolated seasonal rainfall, land surface temperature, distance to perennial water bodies, and time of year entered as fixed-effect variables. Average total monthly rainfall during December-February was the most important spatial predictor of risk of positive RVF serologic status. Maps derived from the models highlighted the lower Senegal River basin and the southern border regions of Senegal as high-risk areas. These risk maps are suitable for use in planning improved sentinel surveillance systems in Senegal, although further data collection is required in large areas of Senegal to better define the spatial distribution of RVF.

Influence of dipping practices on the seroprevalence of babesiosis and anaplasmosis in the foot-and-mouth disease buffer zone adjoining the Kruger National Park in South Africa

A serological survey of bovine babesiosis and anaplasmosis was conducted in the foot-and-mouth disease buffer zone surrounding the Kruger National Park in South Africa between 2001 and 2003 to determine whether the withdrawal of government-subsidized dipping in certain regions had affected the seroprevalence of these tick-borne diseases. Seroprevalence of Anaplasma marginale and Babesia bovis increased during the study period. This increase was greater in Limpopo Province where farmers had to supply their own acaricide than in Mpumalanga Province where dipping materials were provided by the local Veterinary Services. The number of animals testing positive for B. bigemina decreased in both provinces during the study period, which was attributed to possible vector displacement rather than more effective tick control measures. Responses to a questionnaire on ticks and tick-borne diseases revealed local knowledge on the subject to be highly variable and sometimes incorrect.

Ovulatory responses and plasma luteinizing hormone concentrations in dairy heifers after treatment with exogenous progesterone and estradiol benzoate

The objectives of this experiment were to determine the effects of 0.5 mg estradiol benzoate, administered intramuscularly 24 h after removal of CIDR-B progesterone containing intravaginal devices, on the time to estrus, ovulation and peak LH concentration in dairy heifers. Ovulatory responses and plasma LH concentrations were examined using 14 Friesian dairy heifers in 2 separate treatment periods. All heifers received a CIDR-B progesterone-containing intravaginal device with an attached 10-mg estradiol benzoate capsule for 12 d. Within each period, 24 h after CIDR-B removal, 7 heifers received an intramuscular injection of 0.5 mg estradiol benzoate while the remaining 7 heifers received an intramuscular injection of a placebo. Blood samples for LH assay were collected at 0, 6 and 12 h, and then every 4 h for 60 h after estradiol injection. Detection of estrus was conducted at 4-h intervals, and ultrasonographical examination to detect ovulation was conducted every 8 h for 88 h after removal of the CIDR-B device. Treatment with estradiol benzoate tended to reduce the time from device removal to the LH peak in Period 1 (median time to LH peak 40.1 vs 63.9 h; P = 6.07). In Period 2, treatment with estradiol had no significant effect on the time to the LH peak, standing estrus or ovulation. We hypothesize that the period effect was due to the stage of cycle at the time of treatment. For heifers treated in Period 1, the stage of cycle was random. However, because of the prior synchronization of estrus, which was implicit in the experimental design, heifers in Period 2 tended to be in late diestrus. The administration of estradiol benzoate after treatment with exogenous progesterone appears to overcome the variability in timing of LH peaks typically occurring in a herd of synchronized heifers due to different stages of follicular development.

Characteristics of commercial pig farms in Great Britain and their use of antimicrobials

A mail survey of 1889 pig producers in Great Britain with more than 100 sows or more than 1000 pigs was carried out to investigate their use of antimicrobials and other health-related management practices. The response rate was 25.5 per cent. Antimicrobials were most commonly administered in feed. Depending on the production system, between 60 and 75 per cent of the farms had used antimicrobials in their weaner rations and 20 to 62 per cent had used them in their grower rations. Antimicrobial injections had been used on 59 per cent of the farms. The use of antimicrobials in pigs of different age groups was variously associated with the scale of production, membership of a quality assurance scheme, the use of vaccination and whether the farmer thought the farm environment could be improved. Half the respondents (49 per cent) indicated that they used growth promoters in their weaners, but fewer used these in their growers (45 per cent) and finishers (34 per cent). Although 63 per cent of the farmers felt that the continued use of antimicrobials for disease prevention was justified, only 21 per cent felt that their continued use as growth promoters was justified.

An analysis of the spatial and temporal patterns of highly pathogenic avian influenza occurrence in Vietnam using national surveillance data

The objectives of this study were to describe the spatio-temporal pattern of an epidemic of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in Vietnam and to identify potential risk factors for the introduction and maintenance of infection within the poultry population. The results indicate that during the time period 2004-early 2006 a sequence of three epidemic waves occurred in Vietnam as distinct spatial and temporal clusters. The risk of outbreak occurrence increased with a greater percentage of rice paddy fields, increasing domestic water bird and chicken density. It increased with reducing distance to higher population density aggregations, and in the third epidemic wave with increasing percentage of aquaculture. The findings indicate that agri-livestock farming systems involving domestic water birds and rice production in river delta areas are important for the maintenance and spread of infection. While the government's control measures appear to have been effective in the South and Central parts of Vietnam, it is likely that in the North of Vietnam the vaccination campaign led to transmission of infection which was subsequently brought under control.

A Rift Valley fever atlas for Africa

Rift Valley fever (RVF) epidemics have serious consequences for human and animal health and the livestock trade. Recent epidemics have occurred in previously unaffected regions, increasing concerns that the geographical range of RVF will continue to expand. We conducted an extensive, systematic review of the literature to obtain serological data for RVF in Africa, collected between 1970 and 2000 from human, livestock and wild ungulate populations. Aims were to calculate sub-national estimates of RVF infection prevalence and to define areas where no information was available. We presented the data (aggregated at the first administrative level of countries) using a geographical information system. Data from 71 publications were used to build a spatially explicit Bayesian logistic-regression model, with spatial and non-spatial random effects, allowing us to identify clusters of high and low RVF seroprevalence, and fixed effects that described the disparate nature of the survey subjects and methods. Significant high-prevalence clusters encompassed areas that had experienced epidemics during the late 20th century and significant low-prevalence clusters were located in contiguous areas of Western and Central Africa.

Seroprevalence of leptospirosis in domesticated Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) in north and west Thailand in 2004

Serum samples from Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) in the Kanchanaburi, Chiang Mai and Lampang provinces of Thailand were tested using the microscopic agglutination test against 22 serovars of Leptospira interrogans. A titre of more than 1:100 was used as evidence of infection. In northern Thailand, the seroprevalence was 58 per cent and the prevalent serovars were Leptospira interrogans serovar Sejroe, Leptospira interrogans serovar Tarassovi, Leptospira interrogans serovar Ranarum and Leptospira interrogans serovar Shermani. In western Thailand, the seroprevalence was 57 per cent and the prevalent serovars were L Tarassovi, L Sejroe, L Ranarum, Leptospira interrogans serovar Bataviae and L Shermani. These results were similar to studies in domestic livestock and stray dogs in the Bangkok district. Among the elephants from Kanchanaburi there were significant associations between seropositivity and between the camp and between the prevalent serovars and the camp.

Calf mortality as a welfare indicator on British cattle farms

The objective of this study was to test calf mortality as an indicator of on-farm welfare and its use for welfare targeted surveillance. Calf mortality data were retrieved for three UK counties to estimate calf mortality rates at holding and county level. A selection criterion based on upper quartiles of calf mortality for the county of concern was defined. Its predictive ability was tested in a field study. The death risk of calves less than 6 months of age in 2002 was 1.76% in Inverness, 5.83% in Cheshire and 4.8% in Norfolk. Fifty-two welfare inspections matched by parish were conducted between October 2004 and January 2005. The positive predictive value was 26.92% and the negative predictive value was 65.38%. The addition of herd type, county and membership to an assurance scheme improved the predictive value. This study shows that calf mortality can be the starting point to design targeted welfare inspections in countries with centralized animal data recording systems.

Space–time interaction as an indicator of local spread during the 2001 FMD outbreak in the UK

During the 2001 FMD outbreak in the UK, decisions on the level of implementation of control measures were supported by predictive models. Models were mainly used as macro-level tools to predict the behaviour of the disease in the whole country rather than at the local level. Here we explore the use of the magnitude and characteristics of the space-time interaction as an indicator of local spread and, indirectly, of the effectiveness of control measures aimed at reducing short-range transmission during the course of a major livestock disease epidemic. The spatiotemporal evolution patterns are described in the four main clusters that were observed during the outbreak by means of the hazard rate and space-time K-function (K(s,t)). For each local outbreak, the relative measure D(0)(s,t), derived from K(s,t), which represents the excess risk attributable to the space-time interaction was calculated for consecutive 20-day temporal windows to represent the dynamics of the space-time interaction. The dynamics of the spatiotemporal interaction were very different among the four local clusters, suggesting that the intensity of local spread, and therefore the effectiveness of control measures, markedly differed between local outbreaks. The large heterogeneity observed in the relative impact of being close in time and space to an infected premises suggests that the decision making in relation to control of the outbreak would have benefited from indicators of local spread which could be used to complement global predictive modelling results. Despite its limitations, our results suggest that the real-time analysis of the space-time interaction can be a valuable decision support tool during the course of a livestock disease epidemic.

The spatial distribution of atopic dermatitis cases in a population of insured Swedish dogs

Canine atopic dermatitis (CAD) is manifested by pruritus and inflammation of the skin, and most affected dogs have specific IgE against environmental allergens. Our aim was to evaluate whether in Sweden the incidence of CAD varies spatially, and to investigate possible environmental causes of such variation in a longitudinal study of CAD incidence among insured Swedish dogs. The dataset consisted of >220,000 individuals which had been covered by an insurance plan between January 1, 1995 and December 31, 2002. Out of these, 1235 CAD cases were identified and matched to postal-code areas based upon the address of the owner. Environmental risk factors we considered included averages of long-term annual rainfall, and of January and July temperatures. Initial visualization of the incidence rate of CAD (cases/dog-years at risk) expressed as empirical Bayes smoothed spatial rates indicated geographic variation. Moran's I, adjusted for population at risk, revealed significant global clustering. Both the spatial scan statistic and a local indicator of spatial autocorrelation revealed a higher incidence of CAD in the major cities. In a Poisson-regression model (with a spatial covariance structure), the incidence of CAD increased with increasing human population density, increasing average annual rainfall, living in the southern half of Sweden, and having a veterinary dermatologist in the county.

Errors in radiographic interpretation made by veterinary students

As a means of identifying student weaknesses in radiographic interpretation that could be used as foci for teaching, a cohort of 96 students joining the final-year radiology rotation were randomly allocated to one of three radiographic interpretation quizzes, each based on radiographs of small-animal patients together with the signalment and a brief, relevant history. Students' quiz scores were analyzed by multiple logistic regression, using an outcome variable with the score for each item as numerator and maximum possible mark as denominator. Students' median quiz score was 49% of the maximum (range 23-80%). Students were more likely to gain a mark for items based on abnormal radiographs than for those based on normal radiographs (odds ratio 3.4, p < 0.001). Skeletal radiographs were associated with lower scores (OR 0.75, p = 0.03). The fewest marks were awarded for interpretation of a radiograph of a normal canine stifle and interpretation of a radiograph of a normal canine pelvis; these items were misinterpreted as abnormal by 86% and 80% of the students, respectively. Students' tendency to over-interpret normal radiographs may reflect a lack of knowledge of radiographic anatomy or an unrealistically high expectation that the radiographs are abnormal.

Temporal dynamics of dairy health and production in rural smallholder communities in Northern Vietnam

The objective of this field study was to describe the temporal pattern of dairy cattle health and production and associated risk factors in rural small-holder communities in northern Vietnam, one of the target areas of the government's dairy development programme. A total of 99 dairy farms (11 per commune) were recruited from 9 of 32 communes in Ba Vi District, Ha Tay Province, using random two-stage cluster sampling. All dairy cattle present on the selected farms were included. After the initial questionnaire survey was conducted, farms were visited to collect follow-up information at 3-monthly intervals over a period of one year. The results suggest that offtake as well as mortality are important productivity indices because farmers sell or slaughter dairy cattle that are in poor health at low prices during summer months. Changes in relation to the farming operation suggest that for the farmers adopting dairy production it has become one of the main agricultural activities.

Application of knowledge-driven spatial modelling approaches and uncertainty management to a study of Rift Valley fever in Africa

BACKGROUND

There are few studies that have investigated uncertainties surrounding the scientific community's knowledge of the geographical distribution of major animal diseases. This is particularly relevant to Rift Valley fever (RVF), a zoonotic disease causing destructive outbreaks in livestock and man, as the geographical range of the disease is widening to involve previously unaffected regions. In the current study we investigate the application of methods developed in the decision sciences: multiple criteria decision making using weighted linear combination and ordered weighted averages, and Dempster-Shafer theory, implemented within the geographical information system IDRISI, to obtain a greater understanding of uncertainty related to the geographical distribution of RVF. The focus is on presenting alternate methods where extensive field data are not available and traditional, model-based approaches to disease mapping are impossible to conduct.

RESULTS

Using a compensatory multiple criteria decision making model based on weighted linear combination, most of sub-Saharan Africa was suitable for endemic circulation of RVF. In contrast, areas where rivers and lakes traversed semi-arid regions, such as those bordering the Sahara, were highly suitable for RVF epidemics and wet, tropical areas of central Africa had low suitability. Using a moderately non-compensatory model based on ordered weighted averages, the areas considered suitable for endemic and epidemic RVF were more restricted. Varying the relative weights of the different factors in the models did not affect suitability estimates to a large degree, but variations in model structure had a large impact on our suitability estimates. Our Dempster-Shafer analysis supported the belief that a range of semi-arid areas were suitable for RVF epidemics and the plausibility that many other areas of the continent were suitable. Areas where high levels of uncertainty were highlighted included the Ethiopian Highlands, southwest Kenya and parts of West Africa.

CONCLUSION

We have demonstrated the potential of methods developed in the decision sciences to improve our understanding of uncertainties surrounding the geographical distribution of animal diseases, particularly where information is sparse, and encourage wider application of the decision science methodology in the field of animal health.

Analysis of data from the passive surveillance of scrapie in Great Britain between 1993 and 2002

Reports of clinical scrapie in Great Britain between January 1, 1993 and December 31, 2002 were reviewed. Scrapie was confirmed in 4142 sheep on 1099 holdings. The cumulative case and holding incidence risks decreased in 2001, probably owing to the outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease, although there were regional variations. Sheep aged between three and four years old constituted the largest affected group. In the period between 1998 and 2002, 51.3 per cent of the cases had the genotype ARQ/VRQ, 19.3 per cent were ARQ/ARQ and 18.9 per cent were VRQ/VRQ; Swaledale, Shetland and Welsh mountain sheep were the most common pure breeds reported. The areas at highest risk were the Shetland Islands, followed by the south and east of England.

Relationship between stages of the estrous cycle and bone cell activity in Thoroughbreds

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the relationship between stage of estrous cycle and bone cell activity in Thoroughbreds.

SAMPLE POPULATION

Blood samples collected from forty-seven 2-year-old Thoroughbred mares in training for racing.

PROCEDURES

Blood samples were collected monthly (in April through September) from the mares. Stage of estrus was determined by assessing serum progesterone concentration. Bone cell activity was determined by measuring concentrations of 2 markers of bone formation (osteocalcin and the carboxy-terminal propeptide of type I collagen [PICP]) and a marker of bone resorption (the cross-linked carboxy-terminal telopeptide of type I collagen [ICTP]) in sera.

RESULTS

When the relationship between stage of the estrous cycle and markers of bone cell activity was examined, serum concentrations of both osteocalcin and ICTP were significantly higher in mares that were in the luteal phase, compared with mares that were at other stages of the estrous cycle. Stage of estrus did not affect serum PICP concentration.

CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE

Results indicate that bone cell activity in Thoroughbred mares fluctuates during the estrous cycle; serum concentrations of markers of bone formation and bone resorption are increased during the luteal phase. Further studies are required to determine whether these changes are of clinical importance and increase the risk of injury for mares in training during the breeding season. As in humans, stage of estrus must be considered as a source of uncontrollable variability in serum bone marker concentrations in horses.

A longitudinal study to identify constraints to dairy cattle health and production in rural smallholder communities in Northern Vietnam

The objective of the study was to investigate constraints to dairy cattle health and production in rural smallholder communities in northern Vietnam, one of the target areas of the Vietnam government's dairy development programme. A total of 99 dairy farms (11 per commune) were recruited from 9 of 32 communes in Ba Vi District, using random two-stage cluster sampling. After the initial questionnaire interviews were conducted, farms were visited at three monthly intervals over a period of 1 year. Information on several health and production parameters relating to the study cattle was collected. Using multiple indicator modelling, it was found that Fasciola infestation, farmers who had been involved in dairying for longer (not indicative of better management skills), larger herd size, and cattle being kept in a shed were linked to reduced reproductive performances.

Use of social network analysis to characterize the pattern of animal movements in the initial phases of the 2001 foot and mouth disease (FMD) epidemic in the UK

Aggregated movement data do not take into account the relative position of the units within a higher-level structure. Social network analysis (SNA) and graph theory provide a tool to organise and analyse relational data overcoming the limitations of standard methods where the position of individuals/observations does not affect the result of the analysis. Some recorded movements of cattle and sheep during the initial phase of the 2001 foot and mouth disease (FMD) outbreak in the UK, before the ban on animal movements was imposed, are analysed descriptively using SNA. With the data available, a directed dichotomized network with 653 nodes and 797 arches was analysed. Most of the 10 nodes with the highest betweenness (3 farms, 4 markets and 3 dealers) were identified as key players in the initial spread of the infection. Three groups of nodes with distinctive proportion of k < or = 2 neighbours would result in three different theoretical outbreak dimensions assuming that the infection is only disseminated by the movements included in the network: no spread, spread up to 7% and around 25%. There are three hierarchical clusters with 308, 215 and 130 nodes, respectively. Farms in cluster 1 appear to be more similar in their movement patterns to non-farm holdings than to farms in clusters 2 and 3. Relative betweenness, k-neighbours and structural equivalence using hierarchical clustering were able to identify key actors in the evolution of the initial phases of the FMD outbreak such as markets, dealers and farms with atypical movement patterns. Holdings with high betweenness, large number of k < or = 2 neighbours and with movement pattern as in cluster 1 should be targeted in disease control activities once primary actors like markets, dealers and slaughter houses have been contained.