Modeling the spread of COVID-19 in New York City

This paper proposes an ensemble predictor for the weekly increase in the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in the city of New York at zip code level. Within a Bayesian model averaging framework, the baseline is a Poisson regression for count data. The set of covariates includes autoregressive terms, spatial effects, and demographic and socioeconomic variables. Our results for the second wave of the coronavirus pandemic show that these regressors are more significant to predict the number of new confirmed cases as the pandemic unfolds. Both pointwise and interval forecasts exhibit strong predictive ability in-sample and out-of-sample.

Uncovering Clinical Risk Factors and Predicting Severe COVID-19 Cases Using UK Biobank Data: Machine Learning Approach

Background

COVID-19 is a major public health concern. Given the extent of the pandemic, it is urgent to identify risk factors associated with disease severity. More accurate prediction of those at risk of developing severe infections is of high clinical importance.

Objective

Based on the UK Biobank (UKBB), we aimed to build machine learning models to predict the risk of developing severe or fatal infections, and uncover major risk factors involved.

Methods

We first restricted the analysis to infected individuals (n=7846), then performed analysis at a population level, considering those with no known infection as controls (ncontrols=465,728). Hospitalization was used as a proxy for severity. A total of 97 clinical variables (collected prior to the COVID-19 outbreak) covering demographic variables, comorbidities, blood measurements (eg, hematological/liver/renal function/metabolic parameters), anthropometric measures, and other risk factors (eg, smoking/drinking) were included as predictors. We also constructed a simplified (lite) prediction model using 27 covariates that can be more easily obtained (demographic and comorbidity data). XGboost (gradient-boosted trees) was used for prediction and predictive performance was assessed by cross-validation. Variable importance was quantified by Shapley values (ShapVal), permutation importance (PermImp), and accuracy gain. Shapley dependency and interaction plots were used to evaluate the pattern of relationships between risk factors and outcomes.

Results

A total of 2386 severe and 477 fatal cases were identified. For analyses within infected individuals (n=7846), our prediction model achieved area under the receiving-operating characteristic curve (AUC–ROC) of 0.723 (95% CI 0.711-0.736) and 0.814 (95% CI 0.791-0.838) for severe and fatal infections, respectively. The top 5 contributing factors (sorted by ShapVal) for severity were age, number of drugs taken (cnt_tx), cystatin C (reflecting renal function), waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), and Townsend deprivation index (TDI). For mortality, the top features were age, testosterone, cnt_tx, waist circumference (WC), and red cell distribution width. For analyses involving the whole UKBB population, AUCs for severity and fatality were 0.696 (95% CI 0.684-0.708) and 0.825 (95% CI 0.802-0.848), respectively. The same top 5 risk factors were identified for both outcomes, namely, age, cnt_tx, WC, WHR, and TDI. Apart from the above, age, cystatin C, TDI, and cnt_tx were among the top 10 across all 4 analyses. Other diseases top ranked by ShapVal or PermImp were type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), coronary artery disease, atrial fibrillation, and dementia, among others. For the “lite” models, predictive performances were broadly similar, with estimated AUCs of 0.716, 0.818, 0.696, and 0.830, respectively. The top ranked variables were similar to above, including age, cnt_tx, WC, sex (male), and T2DM.

Conclusions

We identified numerous baseline clinical risk factors for severe/fatal infection by XGboost. For example, age, central obesity, impaired renal function, multiple comorbidities, and cardiometabolic abnormalities may predispose to poorer outcomes. The prediction models may be useful at a population level to identify those susceptible to developing severe/fatal infections, facilitating targeted prevention strategies. A risk-prediction tool is also available online. Further replications in independent cohorts are required to verify our findings.

Artificial Intelligence Predicts Severity of COVID-19 Based on Correlation of Exaggerated Monocyte Activation, Excessive Organ Damage and Hyperinflammatory Syndrome: A Prospective Clinical Study

Background

Prediction of the severity of COVID-19 at its onset is important for providing adequate and timely management to reduce mortality.

Objective

To study the prognostic value of damage parameters and cytokines as predictors of severity of COVID-19 using an extensive immunologic profiling and unbiased artificial intelligence methods.

Methods

Sixty hospitalized COVID-19 patients (30 moderate and 30 severe) and 17 healthy controls were included in the study. The damage indicators high mobility group box 1 (HMGB1), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), alanine aminotransferase (ALT), extensive biochemical analyses, a panel of 47 cytokines and chemokines were analyzed at weeks 1, 2 and 7 along with clinical complaints and CT scans of the lungs. Unbiased artificial intelligence (AI) methods (logistic regression and Support Vector Machine and Random Forest algorithms) were applied to investigate the contribution of each parameter to prediction of the severity of the disease.

Results

On admission, the severely ill patients had significantly higher levels of LDH, IL-6, monokine induced by gamma interferon (MIG), D-dimer, fibrinogen, glucose than the patients with moderate disease. The levels of macrophage derived cytokine (MDC) were lower in severely ill patients. Based on artificial intelligence analysis, eight parameters (creatinine, glucose, monocyte number, fibrinogen, MDC, MIG, C-reactive protein (CRP) and IL-6 have been identified that could predict with an accuracy of 83−87% whether the patient will develop severe disease.

Conclusion

This study identifies the prognostic factors and provides a methodology for making prediction for COVID-19 patients based on widely accepted biomarkers that can be measured in most conventional clinical laboratories worldwide.

Experimental Design in Polymer Chemistry-A Guide towards True Optimization of a RAFT Polymerization Using Design of Experiments (DoE)

Despite the great potential of design of experiments (DoE) for efficiency and plannability in academic research, it remains a method predominantly used in industrial processes. From our perspective though, DoE additionally provides greater information gain than conventional experimentation approaches, even for more complex systems such as chemical reactions. Hence, this work presents a comprehensive DoE investigation on thermally initiated reversible addition–fragmentation chain transfer (RAFT) polymerization of methacrylamide (MAAm). To facilitate the adaptation of DoE for virtually every other polymerization, this work provides a step-by-step application guide emphasizing the biggest challenges along the way. Optimization of the RAFT system was achieved via response surface methodology utilizing a face-centered central composite design (FC-CCD). Highly accurate prediction models for the responses of monomer conversion, theoretical and apparent number averaged molecular weights, and dispersity are presented. The obtained equations not only facilitate thorough understanding of the observed system but also allow selection of synthetic targets for each individual response by prediction of the respective optimal factor settings. This work successfully demonstrates the great capability of DoE in academic research and aims to encourage fellow scientists to incorporate the technique into their repertoire of experimental strategies.

SARS-CoV-2 rapid antigen testing in the healthcare sector: A clinical prediction model for identifying false negative results

Objectives

SARS-CoV-2 rapid antigen tests (RAT) provide fast identification of infectious patients when RT-PCR results are not immediately available. We aimed to develop a prediction model for identification of false negative (FN) RAT results.

Methods

In this multicenter trial, patients with documented paired results of RAT and RT-PCR between October 1^st 2020 and January 31^st 2021 were retrospectively analyzed regarding clinical findings. Variables included demographics, laboratory values and specific symptoms. Three different models were evaluated using Bayesian logistic regression.

Results

The initial dataset contained 4,076 patients. Overall sensitivity and specificity of RAT was 62.3% and 97.6%. 2,997 cases with negative RAT results (FN: 120; true negative: 2,877; reference: RT-PCR) underwent further evaluation after removal of cases with missing data. The best-performing model for predicting FN RAT results containing 10 variables yielded an area under the curve of 0.971. Sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV for 0.09 as cut-off value (probability for FN RAT) were 0.85, 0.99, 0.7 and 0.99.

Conclusion

FN RAT results can be accurately identified through ten routinely available variables. Implementation of a prediction model in addition to RAT testing in clinical care can provide decision guidance for initiating appropriate hygiene measures and therefore helps avoiding nosocomial infections.

Central nervous system atrophy predicts future dynamics of disability progression in a real-world multiple sclerosis cohort

Background and purpose

In an era of individualized multiple sclerosis (MS) patient management, biomarkers for accurate prediction of future clinical outcomes are needed. We aimed to evaluate the potential of short‐term magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) atrophy measures and serum neurofilament light chain (sNfL) as predictors of the dynamics of disability accumulation in relapse‐onset MS.

Methods

Brain gray and white matter, thalamic, striatal, pallidal and cervical spinal cord volumes, and lesion load were measured over three available time points (mean time span 2.24 ± 0.70 years) for 183 patients (140 relapsing‐remitting [RRMS] and 43 secondary‐progressive MS (SPMS); 123 female, age 46.4 ± 11.0 years; disease duration 15.7 ± 9.3 years), and their respective annual changes were calculated. Baseline sNfL was also measured at the third available time point for each patient. Subsequently, patients underwent annual clinical examinations over 5.4 ± 3.7 years including Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) scoring, the nine‐hole peg test and the timed 25‐foot walk test.

Results

Higher annual spinal cord atrophy rates and lesion load increase predicted higher future EDSS score worsening over time in SPMS. Lower baseline thalamic volumes predicted higher walking speed worsening over time in RRMS. Lower baseline gray matter, as well as higher white matter and spinal cord atrophy rates, lesion load increase, baseline striatal volumes and baseline sNfL, predicted higher future hand dexterity worsening over time. All models showed reasonable to high prediction accuracy.

Conclusion

This study demonstrates the capability of short‐term MRI metrics to accurately predict future dynamics of disability progression in a real‐world relapse‐onset MS cohort. The present study represents a step towards the utilization of structural MRI measurements in patient care.

Magnetic Resonance Imaging Findings Are Associated with Long-Term Global Neurological Function or Death after Traumatic Brain Injury in Critically Ill Children

The identification of children with traumatic brain injury (TBI) who are at risk of death or poor global neurological functional outcome remains a challenge. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) can detect several brain pathologies that are a result of TBI; however, the types and locations of pathology that are the most predictive remain to be determined. Forty-two critically ill children with TBI were recruited prospectively from pediatric intensive care units at five Canadian children's hospitals. Pathologies detected on subacute phase MRIs included cerebral hematoma, herniation, cerebral laceration, cerebral edema, midline shift, and the presence and location of cerebral contusion or diffuse axonal injury (DAI) in 28 regions of interest were assessed. Global functional outcome or death more than 12 months post-injury was assessed using the Pediatric Cerebral Performance Category score. Linear modeling was employed to evaluate the utility of an MRI composite score for predicting long-term global neurological function or death after injury, and nonlinear Random Forest modeling was used to identify which MRI features have the most predictive utility. A linear predictive model of favorable versus unfavorable long-term outcomes was significantly improved when an MRI composite score was added to clinical variables. Nonlinear Random Forest modeling identified five MRI variables as stable predictors of poor outcomes: presence of herniation, DAI in the parietal lobe, DAI in the subcortical white matter, DAI in the posterior corpus callosum, and cerebral contusion in the anterior temporal lobe. Clinical MRI has prognostic value to identify children with TBI at risk of long-term unfavorable outcomes.

Social media data analysis to predict mental state of users using machine learning techniques

BACKGROUND

Social media platforms such as Facebook, WhatsApp, and Instagram etc., are becoming very popular now not only for youth but for all walks of life. People are more often seen in busy in tweeting, chatting, or putting selfies. No one actually knows the mental state of a person in the online platform. In this article, we will be focusing on how social media is affecting issues such as road accident, murder, and suicide. The research is done by three parts.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Google Form analysis, machine learning used for prediction, and by sentimental analysis of what people think in twitter. All the datasets are based in India. From these datasets, the different machine learning algorithm is used to do the analysis. The project strives to bring the real-world solution in the matter of advancement.

RESULTS

The static data analysis and dynamic data analysis shows the various sentimental analysis and predictions and the technique to predict different mental states. Thus we get clearly about the current world is getting into social issues. This research findings helps to bring social awareness among the current generation by understanding the sensitivity of the youths.

CONCLUSION

Thus through this paper we get known clearly how the current world is getting into social issues like victim of murders or road accidents or committing suicide. The paper clearly helps us to understand the sensitivity of the youths. Therefore brings a social awareness among the current generation.

Predicting Duration of Mechanical Ventilation in Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome Using Supervised Machine Learning

Background: Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is an intense inflammatory process of the lungs. Most ARDS patients require mechanical ventilation (MV). Few studies have investigated the prediction of MV duration over time. We aimed at characterizing the best early scenario during the first two days in the intensive care unit (ICU) to predict MV duration after ARDS onset using supervised machine learning (ML) approaches. Methods: For model description, we extracted data from the first 3 ICU days after ARDS diagnosis from patients included in the publicly available MIMIC-III database. Disease progression was tracked along those 3 ICU days to assess lung severity according to Berlin criteria. Three robust supervised ML techniques were implemented using Python 3.7 (Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM); Random Forest (RF); and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost)) for predicting MV duration. For external validation, we used the publicly available multicenter database eICU. Results: A total of 2466 and 5153 patients in MIMIC-III and eICU databases, respectively, received MV for >48 h. Median MV duration of extracted patients was 6.5 days (IQR 4.4–9.8 days) in MIMIC-III and 5.0 days (IQR 3.0–9.0 days) in eICU. LightGBM was the best model in predicting MV duration after ARDS onset in MIMIC-III with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 6.10–6.41 days, and it was externally validated in eICU with RMSE of 5.87–6.08 days. The best early prediction model was obtained with data captured in the 2nd day. Conclusions: Supervised ML can make early and accurate predictions of MV duration in ARDS after onset over time across ICUs. Supervised ML models might have important implications for optimizing ICU resource utilization and high acute cost reduction of MV.

Integrating Serum Biomarkers into Prediction Models for Biochemical Recurrence Following Radical Prostatectomy

This study undertook to predict biochemical recurrence (BCR) in prostate cancer patients after radical prostatectomy using serum biomarkers and clinical features. Three radical prostatectomy cohorts were used to build and validate a model of clinical variables and serum biomarkers to predict BCR. The Cox proportional hazard model with stepwise selection technique was used to develop the model. Model evaluation was quantified by the AUC, calibration, and decision curve analysis. Cross-validation techniques were used to prevent overfitting in the Irish training cohort, and the Austrian and Norwegian independent cohorts were used as validation cohorts. The integration of serum biomarkers with the clinical variables (AUC = 0.695) improved significantly the predictive ability of BCR compared to the clinical variables (AUC = 0.604) or biomarkers alone (AUC = 0.573). This model was well calibrated and demonstrated a significant improvement in the predictive ability in the Austrian and Norwegian validation cohorts (AUC of 0.724 and 0.606), compared to the clinical model (AUC of 0.665 and 0.511). This study shows that the pre-operative biomarker PEDF can improve the accuracy of the clinical factors to predict BCR. This model can be employed prior to treatment and could improve clinical decision making, impacting on patients' outcomes and quality of life.

Epigenetics for Crop Improvement in Times of Global Change

Epigenetics has emerged as an important research field for crop improvement under the on-going climatic changes. Heritable epigenetic changes can arise independently of DNA sequence alterations and have been associated with altered gene expression and transmitted phenotypic variation. By modulating plant development and physiological responses to environmental conditions, epigenetic diversity-naturally, genetically, chemically, or environmentally induced-can help optimise crop traits in an era challenged by global climate change. Beyond DNA sequence variation, the epigenetic modifications may contribute to breeding by providing useful markers and allowing the use of epigenome diversity to predict plant performance and increase final crop production. Given the difficulties in transferring the knowledge of the epigenetic mechanisms from model plants to crops, various strategies have emerged. Among those strategies are modelling frameworks dedicated to predicting epigenetically controlled-adaptive traits, the use of epigenetics for in vitro regeneration to accelerate crop breeding, and changes of specific epigenetic marks that modulate gene expression of traits of interest. The key challenge that agriculture faces in the 21st century is to increase crop production by speeding up the breeding of resilient crop species. Therefore, epigenetics provides fundamental molecular information with potential direct applications in crop enhancement, tolerance, and adaptation within the context of climate change.

Uptake of Clinical Prognostic Tools in COPD Exacerbations Requiring Hospitalisation

Clinical prognostic tools are used to objectively predict outcomes in many fields of medicine. Whilst over 400 have been developed for use in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), only a minority have undergone full external validation and just one, the DECAF score, has undergone an implementation study supporting use in clinical practice. Little is known about how such tools are used in the UK. We distributed surveys at two time points, in 2017 and 2019, to hospitals included in the Royal College of Physicians of London national COPD secondary care audit program. The survey assessed the use of prognostic tools in routine care of hospitalized COPD patients. Hospital response rates were 71/196 in 2017 and 72/196 in 2019. The use of the DECAF and PEARL scores more than doubled in decisions about unsupported discharge (7%-15.3%), admission avoidance (8.1%-17%) and readmission avoidance (4.8%-13.1%); it more than tripled (8.8%-27.8%) in decisions around hospital-at-home or early supported discharge schemes. In other areas, routine use of clinical prognostic tools was uncommon. In palliative care decisions, the use of the Gold Standards Framework Prognostic Indicator Guidance fell (5.6%-1.4%). In 2017, 43.7% of hospitals used at least one clinical prognostic tool in routine COPD care, increasing to 52.1% in 2019. Such tools can help challenge prognostic pessimism and improve care. To integrate these further into routine clinical care, future research should explore current barriers to their use and focus on implementation studies.Supplemental data for this article is available online at https://dx.doi.org/10.1080/15412555.2021.1959540.

Development and validation of the type 2 diabetes mellitus 10-year risk score prediction models from survey data

AIMS

In this paper, we demonstrate the development and validation of the 10-years type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) risk prediction models based on large survey data.

METHODS

The Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) data collected in 12 European countries using 53 variables representing behavioural as well as physical and mental health characteristics of the participants aged 50 or older was used to build and validate prediction models. To account for strongly unbalanced outcome variables, each instance was assigned a weight according to the inverse proportion of the outcome label when the regularized logistic regression model was built.

RESULTS

A pooled sample of 16,363 individuals was used to build and validate a global regularized logistic regression model that achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.702 (95% CI: 0.698-0.706). Additionally, we measured performance of local country-specific models where AUROC ranged from 0.578 (0.565-0.592) to 0.768 (0.749-0.787).

CONCLUSIONS

We have developed and validated a survey-based 10-year T2DM risk prediction model for use across 12 European countries. Our results demonstrate the importance of re-calibration of the models as well as strengths of pooling the data from multiple countries to reduce the variance and consequently increase the precision of the results.

The Use of Readily Available Longitudinal Data to Predict the Likelihood of Surgery in Crohn Disease

BACKGROUND

Although imaging, endoscopy, and inflammatory biomarkers are associated with future Crohn disease (CD) outcomes, common laboratory studies may also provide prognostic opportunities. We evaluated machine learning models incorporating routinely collected laboratory studies to predict surgical outcomes in U.S. Veterans with CD.

METHODS

Adults with CD from a Veterans Health Administration, Veterans Integrated Service Networks (VISN) 10 cohort examined between 2001 and 2015 were used for analysis. Patient demographics, medication use, and longitudinal laboratory values were used to model future surgical outcomes within 1 year. Specifically, data at the time of prediction combined with historical laboratory data characteristics, described as slope, distribution statistics, fluctuation, and linear trend of laboratory values, were considered and principal component analysis transformations were performed to reduce the dimensionality. Lasso regularized logistic regression was used to select features and construct prediction models, with performance assessed by area under the receiver operating characteristic using 10-fold cross-validation.

RESULTS

We included 4950 observations from 2809 unique patients, among whom 256 had surgery, for modeling. Our optimized model achieved a mean area under the receiver operating characteristic of 0.78 (SD, 0.002). Anti-tumor necrosis factor use was associated with a lower probability of surgery within 1 year and was the most influential predictor in the model, and corticosteroid use was associated with a higher probability of surgery. Among the laboratory variables, high platelet counts, high mean cell hemoglobin concentrations, low albumin levels, and low blood urea nitrogen values were identified as having an elevated influence and association with future surgery.

CONCLUSIONS

Using machine learning methods that incorporate current and historical data can predict the future risk of CD surgery.

Risk Scores and Prediction Models in Chronic Heart Failure: A Comprehensive Review

BACKGROUND

Heart failure affects a substantial proportion of the adult population, with an estimated prevalence of 1-2% in developed countries. Over the previous decades, many prediction models have been introduced for this specific population in an attempt to better stratify and manage heart failure patients.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study is the systematic review of recent, relevant literature regarding risk scores or prediction models in ambulatory patients with an established diagnosis of chronic heart failure.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic search of the literature in PubMed and CENTRAL from their inception up till December 2019 for studies assessing the performance of risk scores and prediction models and original research studies. Grey literature was searched as well. This review is reported in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) statement.

RESULTS

We included 16 eligible studies in this systematic review. Major heart failure risk scores derived from large heart failure populations were among the included studies. Due to significant heterogeneity regarding the main endpoints, a direct comparison of the included prediction scores was inevitable. The majority referred to patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction, while only two out of 16 prediction scores have been developed exclusively for heart failure patients with preserved ejection fraction. Ischemic heart disease was the most common aetiology of heart failure in the included studies. Finally, more than half of the prediction scores have not been externally validated.

CONCLUSION

Prediction models aiming at heart failure patients with a preserved or mid-range ejection fraction are lacking. Prediction scores incorporating recent advances in pharmacotherapy should be developed in the future.

Prediction Models and Scores in Pulmonary Hypertension: A Review

BACKGROUND

Pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) is a serious disease with increased morbidity and mortality. The need for an individualized patient treatment approach necessitates the use of risk assessment in PAH patients. That may include a range of hemodynamic, clinical, imaging and biochemical parameters derived from clinical studies and registry data.

OBJECTIVE

In the current systematic review, we summarize the available data on risk prognostic models and scores in PAH and we explore the possible concordance amongst different risk stratification tools in PAH.

METHODS

PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) guidelines aided the performance of this systematic review. Eligible studies were identified through a literature search in the electronic databases PubMed, Science Direct, Google Scholar and Cochrane with the use of various combinations of MeSH and non-MeSH terms, with a focus on PAH.

RESULTS

Overall, 25 studies were included in the systematic review; out of them, 9 were studies deriving prognostic equations and risk scores and 16 were validating studies of an existing score. The majority of risk stratification scores use hemodynamic data for the assessment of prognosis, while others also include clinical and demographic variables in their equations. The risk discrimination in the overall PAH population was adequate, especially in differentiating the low versus high-risk patients, but their discrimination ability in the intermediate groups remained lower. Current ESC/ERS proposed risk stratification score utilizes a limited number of parameters with prognostic significance, whose prognostic ability has been validated in European patient populations.

CONCLUSION

Despite improvement in risk estimation of prognostic tools of the disease, PAH morbidity and mortality remain high, necessitating the need for the risk scores to undergo periodic re-evaluation and refinements to incorporate new data into predictors of disease progression and mortality and, thereby, maintain their clinical utility.

Detection of primary angleclosure suspect with different mechanisms of angle closure using multivariate prediction models

PURPOSE

We had found that a multivariate prediction model used for the detection of primary angle-closure suspects (PACS) by combining multiple static and dynamic anterior segment optical coherence tomography (ASOCT) parameters had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.844. We undertook this study to evaluate this method in screening of PACS with different dominant mechanisms of angle closure (AC).

METHODS

The right eyes of subjects aged ≥40 years who participated in the 5-year follow-up of the Handan Eye Study and had undergone gonioscopy and ASOCT examinations under light and dark conditions were included. All ASOCT images were analysed by the Zhongshan Angle Assessment Program. The dominant AC mechanism in each eye was determined to be pupillary block (PB), plateau iris configuration (PIC) or thick peripheral iris roll (TPIR). Backward logistic regression (LR) was used for inclusion of variables in the prediction models. LR, Naïve Bayes' classification (NBC) and neural network (NN) were evaluated and compared using the AUC.

RESULTS

Data from 796 subjects (413 PACS and 383 normal eyes) were analysed. The AUCs of LR, NBC and NN in the PB group were 0.920, 0.918 and 0.917. The AUCs of LR, NBC and NN in the PIC group were 0.715, 0.708 and 0.707. The AUCs of LR, NBC and NN in TPIR group were 0.867, 0.833 and 0.886.

CONCLUSIONS

Prediction models showed the best performance for detection of PACS with PB mechanism for AC and have potential for screening of PACS.

Predictive Value of Folate Receptor-Positive Circulating Tumor Cells for the Preoperative Diagnosis of Lymph Node Metastasis in Patients with Lung Adenocarcinoma

Noninvasive assessments of the risk of lymph node metastasis (LNM) in patients with lung adenocarcinoma (LAD) are of great value for selecting individualized treatment options. However, the diagnostic accuracies of different preoperative LN evaluation methods in routine clinical practice are not satisfactory. Here, an assessment to detect folate receptor (FR)-positive circulating tumor cells (CTCs) based on ligand-targeted enzyme-linked polymerization is established. FR-positive CTCs have the potential to improve the specificity and sensitivity of diagnosing LNM in lung cancer patients. The addition of CTC level improved the diagnostic efficiency of the initial prediction model that comprises other clinical parameters. A nomogram for predicting preoperative LNM is established, which showed good prediction and calibration capacities and achieved an average area under the curve of 0.786. Good correlations are observed between the CTC level and nodal classifications, such as the number of positive LNs and the ratio of the number of positive LNs to removed LNs (LN ratio or LNR). The ligand-targeted enzyme-linked polymerization-assisted assessment of CTCs enables noninvasive detection and has a useful predictive value for the preoperative diagnosis of LNM in patients with LAD.

Important Tools for Use by Pediatric Endocrinologists in the Assessment of Short Stature

Assessment and management of children with growth failure has improved greatly over recent years. However, there remains a strong potential for further improvements by using novel digital techniques. A panel of experts discussed developments in digitalization of a number of important tools used by pediatric endocrinologists at the third 360° European Meeting on Growth and Endocrine Disorders, funded by Merck KGaA, Germany, and this review is based on those discussions. It was reported that electronic monitoring and new algorithms have been devised that are providing more sensitive referral for short stature. In addition, computer programs have improved ways in which diagnoses are coded for use by various groups including healthcare providers and government health systems. Innovative cranial imaging techniques have been devised that are considered safer than using gadolinium contrast agents and are also more sensitive and accurate. Deep-learning neural networks are changing the way that bone age and bone health are assessed, which are more objective than standard methodologies. Models for prediction of growth response to growth hormone (GH) treatment are being improved by applying novel artificial intelligence methods that can identify non-linear and linear factors that relate to response, providing more accurate predictions. Determination and interpretation of insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1) levels are becoming more standardized and consistent, for evaluation across different patient groups, and computer-learning models indicate that baseline IGF-1 standard deviation score is among the most important indicators of GH therapy response. While physicians involved in child growth and treatment of disorders resulting in growth failure need to be aware of, and keep abreast of, these latest developments, treatment decisions and management should continue to be based on clinical decisions. New digital technologies and advancements in the field should be aimed at improving clinical decisions, making greater standardization of assessment and facilitating patient-centered approaches.

Early prediction models for prognosis of diabetic ketoacidosis in the emergency department: A protocol for systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) is one of the most serious complications after diabetes poor control, which seriously threatens human life, health, and safety. DKA can rapidly develop within hours or days leading to death. Early evaluation of the prognosis of DKA patients and timely and effective intervention are very important to improve the prognosis of patients. The combination of several variables or characteristics is used to predict the poor prognosis of DKA, which can allocate resources reasonably, which is beneficial to the early classification intervention and clinical treatment of the patients.

METHODS

For the acquisition of required data of eligible prospective/retrospective cohort study or randomized controlled trials (RCTs), we will search for publications from PubMed, Web of science, EMBASE, Cochrane Library, Google scholar, China national knowledge infrastructure (CNKI), Wanfang and China Science and Technology Journal Database (VIP). Two independent reviewers will read the full English text of the articles, screened and selected carefully, removing duplication. Then we evaluate the quality and analyses data by Review Manager (V.5.4). Results data will be pooled and meta-analysis will be conducted if there's 2 eligible studies considered.

RESULTS

This systematic review and meta-analysis will evaluate the value of the prediction models for the prognosis of DKA in the emergency department.

CONCLUSIONS

This systematic review and meta-analysis will provide clinical basis for predicting the prognosis of DKA. It helps us to understand the value of predictive models in evaluating the early prognosis of DKA. The conclusions drawn from this study may be beneficial to patients, clinicians, and health-related policy makers.

STUDY REGISTRATION NUMBER

INPLASY202150023.

[Establishment of naive Bayes classifier-based risk prediction model for chemotherapyinduced nausea and vomiting]

OBJECTIVE

To establish a risk prediction model of chemotherapy-induced nausea and vomiting based on naive Bayes classifier.

OBJECTIVE

We collected the basic information, treatment protocols and follow-up data from 300 patients receiving chemotherapy in the Oncology Department of Second Xiangya Hospital from July to September, 2020. Correlation analysis was carried out between the potential factors related to nausea and vomiting in the treatment plan and the individual characteristics of the patients. For the two characteristics with a correlation coefficient greater than 0.8, their contribution to the area under curve (AUC) was calculated, and the characteristic with a smaller contribution was removed. The naive Bayes classifier in the machine learning library scikit-learn was used as the prediction model of chemotherapy-induced nausea and vomiting, and 10-fold stratified-shuffled-split cross-validation was used to obtain the final result of the model. The machine learning model was trained using 70% of the samples, and 30% of the samples were used as the test set to assess the performance of the model.

OBJECTIVE

The sensitivity of the model for predicting the risk of nausea and vomiting due to acute chemotherapy was 0.83±0.04 (95%CI: 0.80-0.86) with a specificity of 0.45±0.03 (95%CI: 0.42-0.47) and an AUC of 0.72±0.04 (95% CI: 0.69-0.75). The sensitivity of the model for predicting the risk of delayed chemotherapy-induced nausea and vomiting was 0.84±0.01 (95%CI: 0.83-0.86) with a specificity of 0.48±0.03 (95%CI: 0.45-0.52) and an AUC of 0.74±0.02 (95%CI: 0.72-0.77).

OBJECTIVE

The naive Bayes classifier model has a good performance in predicting the risk of chemotherapy-induced nausea and vomiting in Chinese cancer patients.

Forecast the Exacerbation in Patients of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease with Clinical Indicators Using Machine Learning Techniques

Preventing exacerbation and seeking to determine the severity of the disease during the hospitalization of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients is a crucial global initiative for chronic obstructive lung disease (GOLD); this option is available only for stable-phase patients. Recently, the assessment and prediction techniques that are used have been determined to be inadequate for acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease patients. To magnify the monitoring and treatment of acute exacerbation COPD patients, we need to rely on the AI system, because traditional methods take a long time for the prognosis of the disease. Machine-learning techniques have shown the capacity to be effectively used in crucial healthcare applications. In this paper, we propose a voting ensemble classifier with 24 features to identify the severity of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease patients. In our study, we applied five machine-learning classifiers, namely random forests (RF), support vector machine (SVM), gradient boosting machine (GBM), XGboost (XGB), and K-nearest neighbor (KNN). These classifiers were trained with a set of 24 features. After that, we combined their results with a soft voting ensemble (SVE) method. Consequently, we found performance measures with an accuracy of 91.0849%, a precision of 90.7725%, a recall of 91.3607%, an F-measure of 91.0656%, and an AUC score of 96.8656%, respectively. Our result shows that the SVE classifier with the proposed twenty-four features outperformed regular machine-learning-based methods for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients. The SVE classifier helps respiratory physicians to estimate the severity of COPD patients in the early stage, consequently guiding the cure strategy and helps the prognosis of COPD patients.

Exploring effects of DNA methylation and gene expression on pan-cancer drug response by mathematical models

Since genetic alteration only accounts for 20%-30% in the drug effect-related factors, the role of epigenetic regulation mechanisms in drug response is gradually being valued. However, how epigenetic changes and abnormal gene expression affect the chemotherapy response remains unclear. Therefore, we constructed a variety of mathematical models based on the integrated DNA methylation, gene expression, and anticancer drug response data of cancer cell lines from pan-cancer levels to identify genes whose DNA methylation is associated with drug response and then to assess the impact of epigenetic regulation of gene expression on the sensitivity of anticancer drugs. The innovation of the mathematical models lies in: Linear regression model is followed by logistic regression model, which greatly shortens the calculation time and ensures the reliability of results by considering the covariates. Second, reconstruction of prediction models based on multiple dataset partition methods not only evaluates the model stability but also optimizes the drug-gene pairs. For 368,520 drug-gene pairs with P < 0.05 in linear models, 999 candidate pairs with both AUC ≥ 0.8 and P < 0.05 were obtained by logistic regression models between drug response and DNA methylation. Then 931 drug-gene pairs with 45 drugs and 491 genes were optimized by model stability assessment. Integrating both DNA methylation and gene expression markedly increased predictive power for 732 drug-gene pairs where 598 drug-gene pairs including 44 drugs and 359 genes were prioritized. Several drug target genes were enriched in the modules of the drug-gene-weighted interaction network. Besides, for cancer driver genes such as EGFR, MET, and TET2, synergistic effects of DNA methylation and gene expression can predict certain anticancer drugs' responses. In summary, we identified potential drug sensitivity-related markers from pan-cancer levels and concluded that synergistic regulation of DNA methylation and gene expression affect anticancer drug response.

A systematic review of the quality of clinical prediction models in in vitro fertilisation

STUDY QUESTION

What are the best-quality clinical prediction models in IVF (including ICSI) treatment to inform clinicians and their patients of their chance of success?

SUMMARY ANSWER

The review recommends the McLernon post-treatment model for predicting the cumulative chance of live birth over and up to six complete cycles of IVF.

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY

Prediction models in IVF have not found widespread use in routine clinical practice. This could be due to their limited predictive accuracy and clinical utility. A previous systematic review of IVF prediction models, published a decade ago and which has never been updated, did not assess the methodological quality of existing models nor provided recommendations for the best-quality models for use in clinical practice.

STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION

The electronic databases OVID MEDLINE, OVID EMBASE and Cochrane library were searched systematically for primary articles published from 1978 to January 2019 using search terms on the development and/or validation (internal and external) of models in predicting pregnancy or live birth. No language or any other restrictions were applied.

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS

The PRISMA flowchart was used for the inclusion of studies after screening. All studies reporting on the development and/or validation of IVF prediction models were included. Articles reporting on women who had any treatment elements involving donor eggs or sperm and surrogacy were excluded. The CHARMS checklist was used to extract and critically appraise the methodological quality of the included articles. We evaluated models' performance by assessing their c-statistics and plots of calibration in studies and assessed correct reporting by calculating the percentage of the TRIPOD 22 checklist items met in each study.

MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE

We identified 33 publications reporting on 35 prediction models. Seventeen articles had been published since the last systematic review. The quality of models has improved over time with regard to clinical relevance, methodological rigour and utility. The percentage of TRIPOD score for all included studies ranged from 29 to 95%, and the c-statistics of all externally validated studies ranged between 0.55 and 0.77. Most of the models predicted the chance of pregnancy/live birth for a single fresh cycle. Six models aimed to predict the chance of pregnancy/live birth per individual treatment cycle, and three predicted more clinically relevant outcomes such as cumulative pregnancy/live birth. The McLernon (pre- and post-treatment) models predict the cumulative chance of live birth over multiple complete cycles of IVF per woman where a complete cycle includes all fresh and frozen embryo transfers from the same episode of ovarian stimulation. McLernon models were developed using national UK data and had the highest TRIPOD score, and the post-treatment model performed best on external validation.

LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION

To assess the reporting quality of all included studies, we used the TRIPOD checklist, but many of the earlier IVF prediction models were developed and validated before the formal TRIPOD reporting was published in 2015. It should also be noted that two of the authors of this systematic review are authors of the McLernon model article. However, we feel we have conducted our review and made our recommendations using a fair and transparent systematic approach.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS

This study provides a comprehensive picture of the evolving quality of IVF prediction models. Clinicians should use the most appropriate model to suit their patients' needs. We recommend the McLernon post-treatment model as a counselling tool to inform couples of their predicted chance of success over and up to six complete cycles. However, it requires further external validation to assess applicability in countries with different IVF practices and policies.

STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S)

The study was funded by the Elphinstone Scholarship Scheme and the Assisted Reproduction Unit, University of Aberdeen. Both D.J.M. and S.B. are authors of the McLernon model article and S.B. is Editor in Chief of Human Reproduction Open. They have completed and submitted the ICMJE forms for Disclosure of potential Conflicts of Interest. The other co-authors have no conflicts of interest to declare.

REGISTRATION NUMBER

N/A.

Prediction Models for Public Health Containment Measures on COVID-19 Using Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning: A Systematic Review

Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) have expanded their utilization in different fields of medicine. During the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak, AI and ML were also applied for the evaluation and/or implementation of public health interventions aimed to flatten the epidemiological curve. This systematic review aims to evaluate the effectiveness of the use of AI and ML when applied to public health interventions to contain the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Our findings showed that quarantine should be the best strategy for containing COVID-19. Nationwide lockdown also showed positive impact, whereas social distancing should be considered to be effective only in combination with other interventions including the closure of schools and commercial activities and the limitation of public transportation. Our findings also showed that all the interventions should be initiated early in the pandemic and continued for a sustained period. Despite the study limitation, we concluded that AI and ML could be of help for policy makers to define the strategies for containing the COVID-19 pandemic.