Building reliable evidence from real-world data: Needs, methods, cautiousness and recommendations

National healthcare systems of advanced countries, including Italy, widely agree on the approach whereby public healthcare decisions should be driven by available evidence on effectiveness and safety of therapeutics. It is equally accepted that randomized controlled clinical trials (RCTs), although universally recognised as the most robust "evidence generators", are insufficient for guiding the decision-making process since they are intrinsically unsuited to capture the impact of treatments in routine clinical practice. The complexity of treatments, as well as the demographic and clinical heterogeneity of patients receiving the treatments, and the long period of many treatments, explain the gap between the evidence generated in the controlled, but artificial, setting of RCTs and their current impact in the real world. The so-called pragmatic RCTs, despite guaranteeing greater flexibility compared to conventional trials, are not always able to reduce this gap. This explains the growing interest in the development of methods able to produce evidence on the real-world impact of care pathways (i.e., real-world evidence). Among them, those based on the Electronic Healthcare Records (EHRs), as the databases on the healthcare services of the National Health System provided to beneficiaries, known as Healthcare Utilization Databases (HCU), are becoming established and receiving increasing attention from the scientific community and healthcare decision-makers. We described the research areas in which HCU databases may be particularly useful, jointly with strength, weakness and potential of this approach. It is concluded that HCU data cannot substitute RCTs but they can usefully complement RCT data for adequately supporting healthcare decision-makers.

Effectiveness of First-Line Bevacizumab in Metastatic Colorectal Cancer: The Observational Cohort Study GRETA

BACKGROUND

Scant real-world data exist on the clinical outcomes associated with the use of bevacizumab-containing chemotherapy (B+CT) in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC). The primary objective of the GRETA cohort study was to compare the overall survival (OS) of patients with mCRC treated with first-line B+CT versus chemotherapy (CT) alone, in an Italian clinical practice setting.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Incident patients with mCRC were identified during the period 2010-2012 from five population-based cancer registries in Italy. Cases were linked to regional health care utilization databases to obtain the entire spectrum of health services provided to each patient. Patients starting a first-line treatment with B+CT or CT alone within 90 days from the diagnosis were included in the study cohort. A propensity score (PS) method was applied to account for residual confounding.

RESULTS

Of 480 patients with mCRC included in the study cohort, 21.0 received first-line B+CT, and 79.0% received CT. Patients receiving B+CT were younger (p < .001) and underwent surgery more frequently (p = .001). The median OS was 22.5 and 14.6 months for B+CT and CT, respectively (p = .011). The corresponding hazard ratios adjusted by multivariate modeling and PS matched analysis were 0.82 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.62-1.08) and 0.86 (95% CI, 0.56-1.33), respectively. Similar results were observed after subgrouping by age and surgery.

CONCLUSION

In this Italian real-world setting of unselected mCRC, the OS of patients treated with B+CT was consistent with previous observational and patient-registry studies. However, definitive evidence of an improvement in OS cannot be drawn.

IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE

Bevacizumab is a well-established first-line treatment for metastatic colorectal cancer. However, there is scarce evidence in the literature about its effectiveness in clinical practice. Evaluating this topic should be of interest for both clinicians and regulatory agencies. In this study, the median overall survival of the bevacizumab cohort was strikingly coherent with that reported in large observational series of unselected patients, thus suggesting a consistent and reproducible effect of the drug in clinical practice. Although consistent results were observed both in the overall population and in age and surgery subgroups, the present study did not offer definitive evidence of an improvement in OS.

Use of Nimesulide During Early Pregnancy and the Risk of Congenital Malformations: A Population-Based Study from Italy

INTRODUCTION

Nimesulide is the most prescribed non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug in Italy, and it is currently marketed in about 50 countries worldwide. The association between the use of nimesulide in early pregnancy and the risk of birth defects was investigated in a large cohort of pregnant women from Italy.

METHODS

Data were from the healthcare utilization databases of the Italian region of Lombardy. The cohort of 353,081 newborns occurring in Lombardy during the period 2005-2010 was investigated. Exposure to nimesulide during the first trimester of pregnancy, and congenital malformations detected at presentation and within 90 days after birth (outcome), were investigated. Exposure-outcome association was measured by the ratio between the prevalence of congenital malformations among users and non-users of nimesulide. Propensity score stratification was used to control for potential confounders, including maternal medical comorbidities, concomitant medications and sociodemographic characteristics.

RESULTS

The 627 (0.18%) women who filled prescriptions for nimesulide in the first trimester of pregnancy had a 2.6-fold risk of having children with congenital urinary tract anomalies compared to those who did not (adjusted prevalence ratio 2.6; 95% CI 1.2-5.7). Weaker and non-significant evidence for congenital malformations as a whole was found (adjusted prevalence ratio 1.2, 95% CI 0.9-1.6).

CONCLUSION

Our study suggests that the use of nimesulide in early pregnancy may result in a greater risk of having births with congenital urinary tract anomalies.

FUNDING

This study was funded by grants from the Italian Ministry of the Education, University and Research ('Fondo d'Ateneo per la Ricerca' portion, year 2015).

Cardiovascular diseases monitoring: lessons from population-based registries to address future opportunities and challenges in Europe

Background

Population-based registries implement the comprehensive collection of all disease events that occur in a well-characterized population within a certain time period and represent the preferred tools for disease monitoring at a population level. Main characteristics of a Population-based registry are to provide answers to defined research questions, also related to clinical and health policy purposes, assuring completeness of event identification, and implementing a process of case adjudication (validation) according to standardised diagnostic criteria.

Methods

The application of a standard methodology results in the availability of reliable and comparable data and facilitates the transferability of health information for research and evidence-based health policies. Although registries are extremely useful, they require considerable resources to be implemented and maintained, high cost and efforts, to produce stable and reliable indicators.

Results

Thanks to available health information and information technology, current administrative databases on hospital admissions and discharges, medication use, in-patient care utilization, surgical operations, drug dispensations, ticket exemption and invasive procedures are increasingly available. They represent basic sources of information for implementing Population-based registries.Main strengths and limitations of Population-based registries are described taking into consideration the example of cardiovascular diseases, as well as future challenges and opportunities for implementing Population-based registries at European level.

Conclusions

The integration of population-based registries and current administrative health databases may help to complete the picture of the disease rebuilding the evolution of the disease as a continuum from the onset to the possible consequent complications.

Management and Survival of Pleural Mesothelioma: A Record Linkage Study

BACKGROUND

Pleural mesothelioma (PM) is a rare, highly lethal tumor. A definite consensus on its management has yet to be established.

OBJECTIVES

To assess management, overall survival (OS), and their predictors in a cohort of patients from Lombardy, the largest Italian region (about 10 million inhabitants).

METHODS

Through a record linkage between Lombardy health care administrative databases, we identified patients diagnosed with PM in 2006-2011 without history of cancer, evaluating their management. OS from PM diagnosis was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Predictors of OS and of treatment were assessed using Cox regression models with time-dependent covariates when appropriate.

RESULTS

Out of 1,326 patients, 754 (56.9%) received treatment for PM: 205 (15.5%) underwent surgery, and 696 (52.5%) used chemotherapy. Surgery was spread across several hospitals, and most patients diagnosed in nonspecialized centers (70%) underwent surgery in the same centers. Age at diagnosis was a strong inverse determinant of surgery. Determinants of receiving chemotherapy were younger age, a more recent first diagnosis, and first diagnosis in a specialized center. OS was 45.4% at 1 year, 24.8% at 2 years, and 9.6% at 5 years (median 11 months). OS decreased with age, and was higher for those who underwent surgery, but not for those treated with chemotherapy.

CONCLUSIONS

Management of PM varied widely in clinical practice, and significant predictors of treatment were younger age and recent diagnosis, though a high proportion of patients were not treated. Patients were treated in various hospitals, indicating the importance of concentrating serious rare neoplasms in Comprehensive Cancer Centers (as recognized by the Italian Health Ministry).

Incretin-Based Therapies and the Short-term Risk of Pancreatic Cancer: Results From Two Retrospective Cohort Studies

OBJECTIVE

Concerns have been raised about a possible increased risk of pancreatic cancer associated with incretin-based therapies. We examined the risk of pancreatic cancer among patients with diabetes prescribed incretin drugs.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

With the use of public health insurance databases of Belgium and the Lombardy Region, Italy, we created two retrospective cohorts that included adult patients who were first prescribed an incretin drug or another noninsulin antidiabetic drug (NIAD) from 1 July 2008 to 31 December 2013 in Belgium and from 1 January 2008 to 31 December 2012 in the Lombardy Region. The risk of pancreatic cancer was evaluated by multivariate-adjusted Cox models that included time-dependent variables. Adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) from Belgium and Italy were pooled by using fixed-effects meta-analyses.

RESULTS

The cohorts included 525,733 patients with diabetes treated with NIADs and 33,292 with incretin drugs. Results in both cohorts were similar. Eighty-five and 1,589 subjects who developed pancreatic cancer were registered among the incretin and NIAD new users, respectively, which represented an aHR of pancreatic cancer of 2.14 (95% CI 1.71-2.67) among those prescribed an incretin compared with an NIAD. The aHR with a drug use lag exposure of 6 months was 1.69 (1.24-2.32). The aHR decreased from 3.35 (2.32-4.84) in the first 3 months after the first incretin prescription to 2.12 (1.22-3.66) in months 3-5.9, 1.95 (1.20-3.16) in months 6-11.9, and 1.69 (1.12-2.55) after 12 months. Among those prescribed an NIAD, pancreatic cancer occurred mostly within the year after the first prescription. The risk of pancreatic cancer among patients subsequently prescribed insulin was 6.89 (6.05-7.85).

CONCLUSIONS

The recent prescription of incretin therapy is associated with an increased risk of pancreatic cancer. The reason for such an increase is likely the consequence of an occult pancreatic cancer that provokes or aggravates diabetes. Studies are warranted for assessing the risk of pancreatic cancer associated with long-term use of incretin drugs.

NSAIDs utilization for musculoskeletal indications in elderly patients with cerebro/cardiovascular disease

OBJECTIVES

To describe NSAID utilization for musculoskeletal conditions in a large cohort of Italian elderly with cerebro/cardiovascular disease, a population in which NSAIDs should be generally avoided due to the prothrombotic potential.

METHODS

Administrative data from five Italian geographic areas were analyzed. Patients aged ≥ 65 with a cerebro/cardiovascular event recorded between 2008 and 2011 (cohort entry) were selected. Prescription NSAIDs reimbursed for musculoskeletal conditions and dispensed during 1 year follow-up were retrieved to describe (i) prevalence of use, (ii) average amount of defined daily doses of NSAIDs claimed by users per day of follow-up, and (iii) distribution of the received daily dose (RDD) among patients with ≥ 2 dispensings. Among new users, i.e., patients without NSAID dispensings during 2 years before cohort entry, the first dispensed NSAID molecule was observed.

RESULTS

Overall, 511,989 patients were selected. Across the five geographic areas, prevalence of use ranged from 48 to 21% and average consumption ranged between 30 and 67 DDD/1000 users/day. Around 10% of patients in the overall cohort had a RDD > 1. Nimesulide (9.6%) and diclofenac (7.5%) had the highest prevalence of use. The most consumed NSAIDs were nimesulide and coxibs with 10.6 and 7.5 DDD/1000 users/day, respectively. Among new users recruited in 2011, 30% had diclofenac or a coxibs as the first prescription.

CONCLUSIONS

NSAID use was common in the study cohort, particularly in central-southern areas. In contrast with current recommendations, coxibs and diclofenac were among the most prescribed active principles, even in new users. Interventions to promote appropriateness of use are warranted.

Good adherence to therapy with statins reduces the risk of adverse clinical outcomes even among very elderly. Evidence from an Italian real-life investigation

AIM

To assess whether in individuals aged 80years or older adherence to statins is accompanied by a reduced risk of all-cause mortality and major cardiovascular events.

METHODS

A nested case-control study was carried out on a cohort of patients aged 80years or older (very elderly individuals), who were under treatment with statins between 2008 and 2009, using the database available for all citizenship (about 10 million) of Lombardy (Italy). Cases were the cohort members who experienced death or hospitalization for stroke, myocardial infarction or heart failure from the initial prescription until 2012. Up to five controls were randomly selected for each case. Logistic regression was used to model the outcome risk associated with the adherence to therapy with statins. Two younger patient cohorts aged 60 to 69years and 70 to 79years were taken for comparison. A set of sensitivity analyses was performed in order to account for sources of systematic uncertainty.

RESULTS

Among very elderly individuals, those who had high adherence to statins showed significant risk reductions of death (56%; 95% Confidence Interval, 54% to 59%), myocardial infarction (15%; 5% to 24%), stroke (13%; 0% to 24%) and heart failure (30%; 23% to 36%) with respect to those at very low adherence. Adherence-related risk reductions were only slightly better for younger cohort members.

CONCLUSIONS

Adherence to therapy with statins reduced the risk of both death and cardiovascular morbidity in patients aged 80years or older.

Developing and validating a novel multisource comorbidity score from administrative data: a large population-based cohort study from Italy

OBJECTIVE

To develop and validate a novel comorbidity score (multisource comorbidity score (MCS)) predictive of mortality, hospital admissions and healthcare costs using multiple source information from the administrative Italian National Health System (NHS) databases.

METHODS

An index of 34 variables (measured from inpatient diagnoses and outpatient drug prescriptions within 2 years before baseline) independently predicting 1-year mortality in a sample of 500 000 individuals aged 50 years or older randomly selected from the NHS beneficiaries of the Italian region of Lombardy (training set) was developed. The corresponding weights were assigned from the regression coefficients of a Weibull survival model. MCS performance was evaluated by using an internal (ie, another sample of 500 000 NHS beneficiaries from Lombardy) and three external (each consisting of 500 000 NHS beneficiaries from Emilia-Romagna, Lazio and Sicily) validation sets. Discriminant power and net reclassification improvement were used to compare MCS performance with that of other comorbidity scores. MCS ability to predict secondary health outcomes (ie, hospital admissions and costs) was also investigated.

RESULTS

Primary and secondary outcomes progressively increased with increasing MCS value. MCS improved the net 1-year mortality reclassification from 27% (with respect to the Chronic Disease Score) to 69% (with respect to the Elixhauser Index). MCS discrimination performance was similar in the four regions of Italy we tested, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (95% CI) being 0.78 (0.77 to 0.79) in Lombardy, 0.78 (0.77 to 0.79) in Emilia-Romagna, 0.77 (0.76 to 0.78) in Lazio and 0.78 (0.77 to 0.79) in Sicily.

CONCLUSION

MCS seems better than conventional scores for predicting health outcomes, at least in the general population from Italy. This may offer an improved tool for risk adjustment, policy planning and identifying patients in need of a focused treatment approach in the everyday medical practice.

Clinical significance of diabetes likely induced by statins: Evidence from a large population-based cohort

AIM

To provide information on the extent to which type 2 diabetes more likely induced by statins affects the risk of macrovascular complications compared to diabetes unlikely induced by statins.

METHODS

The 84,828 residents in the Italian Lombardy Region who were newly treated with statins between 2003 and 2005 were followed from the index statin prescription until 2009 (step-1 follow-up) to identify those starting antidiabetic therapy. The proportion of days of follow-up covered by statins measured adherence with statins. Cohort members who experienced diabetes were 1:3 matched with those who did not developed diabetes for gender, age and previous adherence with statin treatment. The 3321 diabetic - non-diabetic sets, were followed from the initial antidiabetic therapy until 2012 (step-2 follow-up) to estimate the hazard ratio (HR), and 95% Confidence Interval (CI), for macrovascular complications (proportional hazard models) associated with diabetes separately in each category of adherence with statins.

RESULTS

During the step-1 follow-up, the risk of new-onset diabetes increased progressively with increasing adherence with statins. During the step-2 follow-up, the risk of macrovascular complications associated with diabetes decreased progressively from 1.70 (1.18-2.44), 1.41 (1.17-1.70), 1.30 (1.07-1.57) until 1.10 (0.40-2.80) as adherence with statins during the step-1 follow-up increased.

CONCLUSIONS

Type 2 diabetes lost its association with increasing macrovascular risk when previous adherence with statins was very high, and thus the chance of its induction by the drug greater. Statin-dependent type 2 diabetes might be prognostically less adverse than diabetes unlikely induced by statins.

Antidepressants and the risk of arrhythmia in elderly affected by a previous cardiovascular disease: a real-life investigation from Italy

PURPOSE

The study aimed to fill existing knowledge gaps on the safety of antidepressant drugs (ADs) by estimating the risk of hospitalization for arrhythmia associated with use of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) and newer atypical ADs (NAAs) among elderly with previous cardiovascular (CV) events.

METHODS

The cohort was composed by 199,569 individuals aged ≥ 65 years from five Italian healthcare territorial units who were discharged for cardiovascular outcomes in the years 2008-2010. The 17,277 patients who experienced hospital admission for arrhythmia during follow-up were included as cases. Odds of current ADs use among cases (i.e., 14 days before hospital admission) was compared with (i) odds of current use of 1:5 matched controls (between-patients case-control) and with (ii) odds of previous use during 1:5 matched control periods (within-patient case-crossover). The risk of arrhythmia associated with ADs current use was modelled fitting a conditional logistic regression. A set of sensitivity analyses was performed to account for sources of systematic uncertainty.

RESULTS

Current users of SSRIs and NAAs were at increased risk of arrhythmia with case-control odds ratios (OR) of 1.37 (95% confidence interval, CI 1.18 to 1.58) and 1.41 (1.16 to 1.71) and case-crossover OR of 1.48 (1.20 to 1.81) and 1.72 (1.31 to 2.27). An increased risk of arrhythmia was associated with current use of trazodone (NAA) consistently in case-control and case-crossover designs.

CONCLUSIONS

Evidence that current use of SSRIs and NAAs is associated to an increased risk of arrhythmia among elderly with CV disease was consistently supplied by two observational approaches.

Inappropriate pharmacological treatment in older adults affected by cardiovascular disease and other chronic comorbidities: a systematic literature review to identify potentially inappropriate prescription indicators

Avoiding medications in which the risks outweigh the benefits in the elderly patient is a challenge for physicians, and different criteria to identify inappropriate prescription (IP) exist to aid prescribers. Definition of IP indicators in the Italian geriatric population affected by cardiovascular disease and chronic comorbidities could be extremely useful for prescribers and could offer advantages from a public health perspective. The purpose of the present study was to identify IP indicators by means of a systematic literature review coupled with consensus criteria. A systematic search of PubMed, EMBASE, and CENTRAL databases was conducted, with the search structured around four themes and combining each with the Boolean operator “and”. The first regarded “prescriptions”, the second “adverse events”, the third “cardiovascular conditions”, and the last was planned to identify studies on “older people”. Two investigators independently reviewed titles, abstracts, full texts, and selected articles addressing IP in the elderly affected by cardiovascular condition using the following inclusion criteria: studies on people aged ≥65 years; studies on patients with no restriction on age but with data on subjects aged ≥65 years; and observational effectiveness studies. The database searches produced 5,742 citations. After removing duplicates, titles and abstracts of 3,880 records were reviewed, and 374 full texts were retrieved that met inclusion criteria. Thus, 49 studies reporting 32 potential IP indicators were included in the study. IP indicators regarded mainly drug–drug interactions, cardio- and cerebrovascular risk, bleeding risk, and gastrointestinal risk; among them, only 19 included at least one study that showed significant results, triggering a potential warning for a specific drug or class of drugs in a specific context. This systematic review demonstrates that both cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular drugs increase the risk of adverse drug reactions in older adults with cardiovascular diseases.

Calcium Channel Blockers in Secondary Cardiovascular Prevention and Risk of Acute Events: Real-World Evidence from Nested Case-Control Studies on Italian Hypertensive Elderly

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Antihypertensive treatment with calcium channel blockers (CCBs) is consolidated in clinical practice; however, different studies observed increased risks of acute events for short-acting CCBs. This study aimed to provide real-world evidence on risks of acute cardiovascular (CV) events, hospitalizations and mortality among users of different CCB classes in secondary CV prevention.

METHODS

Three case-control studies were nested in a cohort of Italian elderly hypertensive CV-compromised CCBs users. Cases were subjects with CV events (n = 25,204), all-cause hospitalizations (n = 19,237), or all-cause mortality (n = 17,996) during the follow-up. Up to four controls were matched for each case. Current or past exposition to CCBs at index date was defined based on molecule, formulation and daily doses of the last CCB delivery. The odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated using conditional logistic regression models.

RESULTS

Compared to past users, current CCB users had significant reductions in risks of CV events [OR 0.88 (95% CI: 0.84-0.91)], hospitalization [0.90 (0.88-0.93)] and mortality [0.48 (0.47-0.49)]. Current users of long-acting dihydropyridines (DHPs) had the lowest risk [OR 0.87 (0.84-0.90), 0.86 (0.83-0.90), 0.55 (0.54-0.56) for acute CV events, hospitalizations and mortality], whereas current users of short-acting CCBs had an increased risk of acute CV events [OR 1.77 (1.13-2.78) for short-acting DHPs; 1.19 (1.07-1.31) for short-acting non-DHPs] and hospitalizations [OR 1.84 (0.96-3.51) and 1.23 (1.08-1.42)].

CONCLUSIONS

The already-existing warning on short-acting CCBs should be potentiated, addressing clinicians towards the choice of long-acting formulations.

Routine quality care assessment of schizophrenic disorders using information systems

Objective

To assess the quality of mental healthcare provided to patients with schizophrenic disorders in the Italian region of Lombardy.

Design

Forty-one clinical indicators were applied to Lombardy's healthcare databases containing data on mental health treatments, hospital admissions, somatic health treatments and pharmaceutical prescriptions.

Setting

All public departments of mental health and private residential facilities in Lombardy.

Participants

All 28 227 patients with schizophrenic disorders that were under the care of Lombardy mental health services in 2009.

Interventions

N/A.

Main outcome measures

N/A.

Results

The care that was delivered to patients and family members was more frequent for first-episode cases than for prevalent ones. Seven out of ten patients made use of continuing care and, after hospitalization, more than half of the discharged patients received a follow-up visit by community mental health centre staff within 2 weeks of their discharge. Psychotherapeutic and psychoeducative treatments, such as employment and independent living support, were not widespread among these discharged patients. Antipsychotic drug dosage was usually within the recommended range. The adherence of first-episode patients to antipsychotic treatment was lower than that of prevalent patients, and the monitoring of metabolic side effects was not always consistent. Inappropriateness of hospital care, in terms of longer admission, readmission, compulsory admission and restraint, was limited. Mortality during the period was significant.

Conclusions

Clinical indicators demonstrate the strengths and weaknesses of the mental health system in Lombardy and they can be useful tools in the routine assessment of mental healthcare quality.

Combining evidence from multiple electronic health care databases: performances of one-stage and two-stage meta-analysis in matched case-control studies

PURPOSE

Clustering of patients in databases is usually ignored in one-stage meta-analysis of multi-database studies using matched case-control data. The aim of this study was to compare bias and efficiency of such a one-stage meta-analysis with a two-stage meta-analysis.

METHODS

First, we compared the approaches by generating matched case-control data under 5 simulated scenarios, built by varying: (1) the exposure-outcome association; (2) its variability among databases; (3) the confounding strength of one covariate on this association; (4) its variability; and (5) the (heterogeneous) confounding strength of two covariates. Second, we made the same comparison using empirical data from the ARITMO project, a multiple database study investigating the risk of ventricular arrhythmia following the use of medications with arrhythmogenic potential. In our study, we specifically investigated the effect of current use of promethazine.

RESULTS

Bias increased for one-stage meta-analysis with increasing (1) between-database variance of exposure effect and (2) heterogeneous confounding generated by two covariates. The efficiency of one-stage meta-analysis was slightly lower than that of two-stage meta-analysis for the majority of investigated scenarios. Based on ARITMO data, there were no evident differences between one-stage (OR = 1.50, CI = [1.08; 2.08]) and two-stage (OR = 1.55, CI = [1.12; 2.16]) approaches.

CONCLUSIONS

When the effect of interest is heterogeneous, a one-stage meta-analysis ignoring clustering gives biased estimates. Two-stage meta-analysis generates estimates at least as accurate and precise as one-stage meta-analysis. However, in a study using small databases and rare exposures and/or outcomes, a correct one-stage meta-analysis becomes essential.

Mother's education and the risk of several neonatal outcomes: an evidence from an Italian population-based study

Background

Maternal socioeconomic disparities strongly affect child health, particularly in low and middle income countries. We assessed whether neonatal outcomes varied by maternal education in a setting where healthcare system provides universal coverage of health services to all women, irrespective of their socioeconomic status.

Methods

A population-based study was performed on 383,103 singleton live births occurring from 2005 to 2010 in Lombardy, an Italian region with approximately 10 million inhabitants. The association between maternal education, birthplace and selected neonatal outcomes (preterm birth, low birth weight, small-for-gestational age, low 5-min Apgar score, severe congenital anomalies, cerebral distress and respiratory distress) was estimated by fitting logistic regression models. Model adjustments were applied for sociodemographic, reproductive and medical maternal traits.

Results

Compared with low-level educated mothers, those with high education had reduced odds of preterm birth (Odds Ratio; OR = 0.81, 95% CI 0.77–0.85), low birth weight (OR = 0.78, 95% CI 0.70–0.81), small for gestational age (OR = 0.82, 95% CI 0.79–0.85), and respiratory distress (OR = 0.84, 95% CI 0.80–0.88).

Mothers born in a foreign country had higher odds of preterm birth (OR = 1.16, 95% CI 1.11–1.20), low Apgar score (OR = 1.18, 95% CI 1.07–1.30) and respiratory distress (OR = 1.19, 95% CI 1.15–1.24) than Italian-born mothers. The influence of maternal education on neonatal outcomes was confirmed among both, Italian-born and foreign-born mothers.

Conclusions

Low levels of education and maternal birthplace are important factors associated with adverse neonatal outcomes in Italy. Future studies are encouraged to investigate factors mediating the effects of socioeconomic inequality for identifying the main target groups for interventions.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12884-017-1418-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Initiation and shift of antidiabetic therapy and pancreatic cancer

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Background: Concerns have been raised on the risk of pancreatic cancer associated with specific anti-diabetic therapies. We have examined the risk of pancreatic cancer among patients with diabetes prescribed with an oral anti-diabetic drug (OAD) or an incretin drug (DPP4i and GLP-1 RA) or insulin. Methods: The public health insurance databases of Belgium and of Lombardy Region, Italy include nearly 100% of the population living in these countries. We created within these databases two cohorts that included adult patients who were first prescribed an incretin drug or another noninsulin antidiabetic drug (NIAD) during 01/07/2008-31/12/2013 in Belgium and during 01/01/2008-31/12/2012 in Lombardy Region. The risk of pancreatic cancer after prescription of an anti-diabetic drug was evaluated using multivariate adjusted Cox models including time-dependent variables. Adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) from Belgium and Italy were pooled using fixed effects meta-analyses. Results: Results in both cohorts were similar. Among those patients prescribed an OAD, 45% of pancreatic cancers occurred within the 6 months following first prescription, 20% in months 7 to 12 after first prescription and proportions decreased progressively during follow-up. The aHR of pancreatic cancer among subjects prescribed an incretin compared to an OAD was 2.14 [95% CI, 1.71 to 2.67]. The aHR decreased from 3.35 [CI, 2.32 to 4.84] in the first 3 months after first incretin prescription, 2.12 [CI, 1.22 to 3.66] in months 3 to 5.9, 1.95 [CI, 1.20 to 3.16] in months 6 to 11.9, to 1.69 [CI, 1.12 to 2.55] after 12 months. The risk of pancreatic cancer among subjects who were subsequently prescribed insulin was 6.89 [CI, 6.05 to 7.85]. The time from OAD prescription to a shift to incretins or to insulin was significantly lower in patients who were subsequently diagnosed with a pancreatic cancer. Conclusions: The increased risk of pancreatic cancer associated with anti-diabetic therapies could be the consequence of an occult pancreatic cancer that provokes diabetes (reverse causation bias). The search for an occult pancreatic cancer in subjects with newly diagnosed diabetes or patients shifting to more potent anti-diabetic therapy may lead to earlier detection of this cancer.

Statin use and risk of new-onset diabetes: A meta-analysis of observational studies

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Meta-analyses of randomized control trials investigating the association between incident diabetes and statin use showed an increased risk of new-onset diabetes (NOD) from 9% to 13% associated with statins. However, short follow-up period, unpowered sample size, and lack of pre-specified diagnostic criteria for diabetes detection could be responsible of an underestimation of this risk. We conducted a meta-analysis of published observational studies to evaluate the association between statins use and risk of NOD.

METHODS AND RESULTS

PubMed, EMBASE and MEDLINE databases were searched from inception to June 30, 2016 for cohort and case-control studies with risk of NOD in users vs nonusers, on ≥1000 subjects followed-up for ≥1 year. Two review authors assessed study eligibility and risk of bias and undertook data extraction independently. Pooled estimates were calculated by a random-effects model and between-study heterogeneity was tested and measured by I² index. Furthermore, stratified analyses and the evaluation of publication bias were performed. Finally, the meta-analysis included 20 studies, 18 cohort and 2 case-control studies. Overall, NOD risk was higher in statin users than nonusers (RR 1.44; 95% CI 1.31-1.58). High between-study heterogeneity (I² = 97%) was found. Estimates for all single statins showed a class effect, from rosuvastatin (RR 1.61; 1.30-1.98) to simvastatin (RR 1.38; 1.19-1.61).

CONCLUSIONS

The present meta-analysis confirms and reinforces the evidence of a diabetogenic effect by statins utilization. These observations confirm the need of a rigorous monitoring of patients taking statins, in particular pre-diabetic patients or patients presenting with established risk factors for diabetes.