Baseline Characteristics and Outcomes of 1591 Patients Infected With SARS-CoV-2 Admitted to ICUs of the Lombardy Region, Italy

IMPORTANCE

In December 2019, a novel coronavirus (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 [SARS-CoV-2]) emerged in China and has spread globally, creating a pandemic. Information about the clinical characteristics of infected patients who require intensive care is limited.

OBJECTIVE

To characterize patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) requiring treatment in an intensive care unit (ICU) in the Lombardy region of Italy.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Retrospective case series of 1591 consecutive patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 referred for ICU admission to the coordinator center (Fondazione IRCCS Ca' Granda Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico, Milan, Italy) of the COVID-19 Lombardy ICU Network and treated at one of the ICUs of the 72 hospitals in this network between February 20 and March 18, 2020. Date of final follow-up was March 25, 2020.

EXPOSURES

SARS-CoV-2 infection confirmed by real-time reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) assay of nasal and pharyngeal swabs.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Demographic and clinical data were collected, including data on clinical management, respiratory failure, and patient mortality. Data were recorded by the coordinator center on an electronic worksheet during telephone calls by the staff of the COVID-19 Lombardy ICU Network.

RESULTS

Of the 1591 patients included in the study, the median (IQR) age was 63 (56-70) years and 1304 (82%) were male. Of the 1043 patients with available data, 709 (68%) had at least 1 comorbidity and 509 (49%) had hypertension. Among 1300 patients with available respiratory support data, 1287 (99% [95% CI, 98%-99%]) needed respiratory support, including 1150 (88% [95% CI, 87%-90%]) who received mechanical ventilation and 137 (11% [95% CI, 9%-12%]) who received noninvasive ventilation. The median positive end-expiratory pressure (PEEP) was 14 (IQR, 12-16) cm H2O, and Fio2 was greater than 50% in 89% of patients. The median Pao2/Fio2 was 160 (IQR, 114-220). The median PEEP level was not different between younger patients (n = 503 aged ≤63 years) and older patients (n = 514 aged ≥64 years) (14 [IQR, 12-15] vs 14 [IQR, 12-16] cm H2O, respectively; median difference, 0 [95% CI, 0-0]; P = .94). Median Fio2 was lower in younger patients: 60% (IQR, 50%-80%) vs 70% (IQR, 50%-80%) (median difference, -10% [95% CI, -14% to 6%]; P = .006), and median Pao2/Fio2 was higher in younger patients: 163.5 (IQR, 120-230) vs 156 (IQR, 110-205) (median difference, 7 [95% CI, -8 to 22]; P = .02). Patients with hypertension (n = 509) were older than those without hypertension (n = 526) (median [IQR] age, 66 years [60-72] vs 62 years [54-68]; P < .001) and had lower Pao2/Fio2 (median [IQR], 146 [105-214] vs 173 [120-222]; median difference, -27 [95% CI, -42 to -12]; P = .005). Among the 1581 patients with ICU disposition data available as of March 25, 2020, 920 patients (58% [95% CI, 56%-61%]) were still in the ICU, 256 (16% [95% CI, 14%-18%]) were discharged from the ICU, and 405 (26% [95% CI, 23%-28%]) had died in the ICU. Older patients (n = 786; age ≥64 years) had higher mortality than younger patients (n = 795; age ≤63 years) (36% vs 15%; difference, 21% [95% CI, 17%-26%]; P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this case series of critically ill patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 admitted to ICUs in Lombardy, Italy, the majority were older men, a large proportion required mechanical ventilation and high levels of PEEP, and ICU mortality was 26%.

Hospital surge capacity in a tertiary emergency referral centre during the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy

The first person-to-person transmission of the 2019 novel coronavirus in Italy on 21 February 2020 led to an infection chain that represents one of the largest known COVID-19 outbreaks outside Asia. In northern Italy in particular, we rapidly experienced a critical care crisis due to a shortage of intensive care beds, as we expected according to data reported in China. Based on our experience of managing this surge, we produced this review to support other healthcare services in preparedness and training of hospitals during the current coronavirus outbreak. We had a dedicated task force that identified a response plan, which included: (1) establishment of dedicated, cohorted intensive care units for COVID-19-positive patients; (2) design of appropriate procedures for pre-triage, diagnosis and isolation of suspected and confirmed cases; and (3) training of all staff to work in the dedicated intensive care unit, in personal protective equipment usage and patient management. Hospital multidisciplinary and departmental collaboration was needed to work on all principles of surge capacity, including: space definition; supplies provision; staff recruitment; and ad hoc training. Dedicated protocols were applied where full isolation of spaces, staff and patients was implemented. Opening the unit and the whole hospital emergency process required the multidisciplinary, multi-level involvement of healthcare providers and hospital managers all working towards a common goal: patient care and hospital safety. Hospitals should be prepared to face severe disruptions to their routine and it is very likely that protocols and procedures might require re-discussion and updating on a daily basis.

Dynamic Arterial Elastance as a Ventriculo-Arterial Coupling Index: An Experimental Animal Study

Dynamic arterial elastance (Ea_dyn), the ratio between arterial pulse pressure and stroke volume changes during respiration, has been postulated as an index of the coupling between the left ventricle (LV) and the arterial system. We aimed to confirm this hypothesis using the gold-standard for defining LV contractility, afterload, and evaluating ventricular-arterial (VA) coupling and LV efficiency during different loading and contractile experimental conditions. Twelve Yorkshire healthy female pigs submitted to three consecutive stages with two opposite interventions each: changes in afterload (phenylephrine/nitroprusside), preload (bleeding/fluid bolus), and contractility (esmolol/dobutamine). LV pressure-volume data was obtained with a conductance catheter, and arterial pressures were measured via a fluid-filled catheter in the proximal aorta and the radial artery. End-systolic elastance (Ees), a load-independent index of myocardial contractility, was calculated during an inferior vena cava occlusion. Effective arterial elastance (Ea, an index of LV afterload) was calculated as LV end-systolic pressure/stroke volume. VA coupling was defined as the ratio Ea/Ees. LV efficiency (LV_eff) was defined as the ratio between stroke work and the LV pressure-volume area. Ea_dyn was calculated as the ratio between the aortic pulse pressure variation (PPV) and conductance-derived stroke volume variation (SVV). A linear mixed model was used for evaluating the relationship between Ees, Ea, VA coupling, LV_eff with Ea_dyn. Ea_dyn was inversely related to VA coupling and directly to LV_eff. The higher the Ea_dyn, the higher the LV_eff and the lower the VA coupling. Thus, Ea_dyn, an easily measured parameter at the bedside, may be of clinical relevance for hemodynamic assessment of the unstable patient.

Transfusion strategies in non-bleeding critically ill adults: a clinical practice guideline from the European Society of Intensive Care Medicine

OBJECTIVE

To develop evidence-based clinical practice recommendations regarding transfusion practices in non-bleeding, critically ill adults.

DESIGN

A task force involving 13 international experts and three methodologists used the GRADE approach for guideline development.

METHODS

The task force identified four main topics: red blood cell transfusion thresholds, red blood cell transfusion avoidance strategies, platelet transfusion, and plasma transfusion. The panel developed structured guideline questions using population, intervention, comparison, and outcomes (PICO) format.

RESULTS

The task force generated 16 clinical practice recommendations (3 strong recommendations, 13 conditional recommendations), and identified five PICOs with insufficient evidence to make any recommendation.

CONCLUSIONS

This clinical practice guideline provides evidence-based recommendations and identifies areas where further research is needed regarding transfusion practices and transfusion avoidance in non-bleeding, critically ill adults.

Surviving Sepsis Campaign: guidelines on the management of critically ill adults with Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

Background

The novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is the cause of a rapidly spreading illness, Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), affecting thousands of people around the world. Urgent guidance for clinicians caring for the sickest of these patients is needed.

Methods

We formed a panel of 36 experts from 12 countries. All panel members completed the World Health Organization conflict of interest disclosure form. The panel proposed 53 questions that are relevant to the management of COVID-19 in the ICU. We searched the literature for direct and indirect evidence on the management of COVID-19 in critically ill patients in the ICU. We identified relevant and recent systematic reviews on most questions relating to supportive care. We assessed the certainty in the evidence using the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) approach, then generated recommendations based on the balance between benefit and harm, resource and cost implications, equity, and feasibility. Recommendations were either strong or weak, or in the form of best practice recommendations.

Results

The Surviving Sepsis Campaign COVID-19 panel issued 54 statements, of which 4 are best practice statements, 9 are strong recommendations, and 35 are weak recommendations. No recommendation was provided for 6 questions. The topics were: (1) infection control, (2) laboratory diagnosis and specimens, (3) hemodynamic support, (4) ventilatory support, and (5) COVID-19 therapy.

Conclusion

The Surviving Sepsis Campaign COVID-19 panel issued several recommendations to help support healthcare workers caring for critically ill ICU patients with COVID-19. When available, we will provide new recommendations in further releases of these guidelines.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1007/s00134-020-06022-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Metrology part 1: definition of quality criteria

Any measurement is always afflicted with some degree of uncertainty. A correct understanding of the different types of uncertainty, their naming, and their definition is of crucial importance for an appropriate use of measuring instruments. However, in perioperative and intensive care medicine, the metrological requirements for measuring instruments are poorly defined and often used spuriously. The correct use of metrological terms is also of crucial importance in validation studies. The European Union published a new directive on medical devices, mentioning that in the case of devices with a measuring function, the notified body is involved in all aspects relating to the conformity of the device with the metrological requirements. It is therefore the task of the scientific societies to establish the standards in their area of expertise. Adopting the same understandings and definitions among clinicians and scientists is obviously the first step. In this metrologic review (part 1), we list and explain the most important terms defined by the International Bureau of Weights and Measures regarding quantities and units, properties of measurements, devices for measurement, properties of measuring devices, and measurement standards, with specific examples from perioperative and intensive care medicine.

Long-term patient-important outcomes after septic shock: A protocol for 1-year follow-up of the CLASSIC trial

BACKGROUND

In patients with septic shock, mortality is high, and survivors experience long-term physical, mental and social impairments. The ongoing Conservative vs Liberal Approach to fluid therapy of Septic Shock in Intensive Care (CLASSIC) trial assesses the benefits and harms of a restrictive vs standard-care intravenous (IV) fluid therapy. The hypothesis is that IV fluid restriction improves patient-important long-term outcomes.

AIM

To assess the predefined patient-important long-term outcomes in patients randomised into the CLASSIC trial.

METHODS

In this pre-planned follow-up study of the CLASSIC trial, we will assess all-cause mortality, health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and cognitive function 1 year after randomisation in the two intervention groups. The 1-year mortality will be collected from electronic patient records or central national registries in most participating countries. We will contact survivors and assess EuroQol 5-Dimension, -5-Level (EQ-5D-5L) and EuroQol-Visual Analogue Scale and Montreal Cognitive Assessment 5-minute protocol score. We will analyse mortality by logistic regression and use general linear models to assess HRQoL and cognitive function.

DISCUSSION

With this pre-planned follow-up study of the CLASSIC trial, we will provide patient-important data on long-term survival, HRQoL and cognitive function of restrictive vs standard-care IV fluid therapy in patients with septic shock.

Accelerated surgery versus standard care in hip fracture (HIP ATTACK): an international, randomised, controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Observational studies have suggested that accelerated surgery is associated with improved outcomes in patients with a hip fracture. The HIP ATTACK trial assessed whether accelerated surgery could reduce mortality and major complications.

METHODS

HIP ATTACK was an international, randomised, controlled trial done at 69 hospitals in 17 countries. Patients with a hip fracture that required surgery and were aged 45 years or older were eligible. Research personnel randomly assigned patients (1:1) through a central computerised randomisation system using randomly varying block sizes to either accelerated surgery (goal of surgery within 6 h of diagnosis) or standard care. The coprimary outcomes were mortality and a composite of major complications (ie, mortality and non-fatal myocardial infarction, stroke, venous thromboembolism, sepsis, pneumonia, life-threatening bleeding, and major bleeding) at 90 days after randomisation. Patients, health-care providers, and study staff were aware of treatment assignment, but outcome adjudicators were masked to treatment allocation. Patients were analysed according to the intention-to-treat principle. This study is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT02027896).

FINDINGS

Between March 14, 2014, and May 24, 2019, 27 701 patients were screened, of whom 7780 were eligible. 2970 of these were enrolled and randomly assigned to receive accelerated surgery (n=1487) or standard care (n=1483). The median time from hip fracture diagnosis to surgery was 6 h (IQR 4-9) in the accelerated-surgery group and 24 h (10-42) in the standard-care group (p<0·0001). 140 (9%) patients assigned to accelerated surgery and 154 (10%) assigned to standard care died, with a hazard ratio (HR) of 0·91 (95% CI 0·72 to 1·14) and absolute risk reduction (ARR) of 1% (-1 to 3; p=0·40). Major complications occurred in 321 (22%) patients assigned to accelerated surgery and 331 (22%) assigned to standard care, with an HR of 0·97 (0·83 to 1·13) and an ARR of 1% (-2 to 4; p=0·71).

INTERPRETATION

Among patients with a hip fracture, accelerated surgery did not significantly lower the risk of mortality or a composite of major complications compared with standard care.

FUNDING

Canadian Institutes of Health Research.

Systematic assessment of fluid responsiveness during early septic shock resuscitation: secondary analysis of the ANDROMEDA-SHOCK trial

BACKGROUND

Fluid boluses are administered to septic shock patients with the purpose of increasing cardiac output as a means to restore tissue perfusion. Unfortunately, fluid therapy has a narrow therapeutic index, and therefore, several approaches to increase safety have been proposed. Fluid responsiveness (FR) assessment might predict which patients will effectively increase cardiac output after a fluid bolus (FR+), thus preventing potentially harmful fluid administration in non-fluid responsive (FR-) patients. However, there are scarce data on the impact of assessing FR on major outcomes. The recent ANDROMEDA-SHOCK trial included systematic per-protocol assessment of FR. We performed a post hoc analysis of the study dataset with the aim of exploring the relationship between FR status at baseline, attainment of specific targets, and clinically relevant outcomes.

METHODS

ANDROMEDA-SHOCK compared the effect of peripheral perfusion- vs. lactate-targeted resuscitation on 28-day mortality. FR was assessed before each fluid bolus and periodically thereafter. FR+ and FR- subgroups, independent of the original randomization, were compared for fluid administration, achievement of resuscitation targets, vasoactive agents use, and major outcomes such as organ dysfunction and support, length of stay, and 28-day mortality.

RESULTS

FR could be determined in 348 patients at baseline. Two hundred and forty-two patients (70%) were categorized as fluid responders. Both groups achieved comparable successful resuscitation targets, although non-fluid responders received less resuscitation fluids (0 [0-500] vs. 1500 [1000-2500] mL; p 0.0001), exhibited less positive fluid balances, but received more vasopressor testing. No difference in clinically relevant outcomes between FR+ and FR- patients was found, including 24-h SOFA score (9 [5-12] vs. 8 [5-11], p = 0.4), need for MV (78% vs. 72%, p = 0.16), need for RRT (18% vs. 21%, p = 0.7), ICU-LOS (6 [3-11] vs. 6 [3-16] days, p = 0.2), and 28-day mortality (40% vs. 36%, p = 0.5). Only thirteen patients remained fluid responsive along the intervention period.

CONCLUSIONS

Systematic assessment allowed determination of fluid responsiveness status in more than 80% of patients with early septic shock. Fluid boluses could be stopped in non-fluid responsive patients without any negative impact on clinical relevant outcomes. Our results suggest that fluid resuscitation might be safely guided by FR assessment in septic shock patients.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov identifier, NCT03078712. Registered retrospectively on March 13, 2017.

The contribution of frailty, cognition, activity of daily life and comorbidities on outcome in acutely admitted patients over 80 years in European ICUs: the VIP2 study

Purpose

Premorbid conditions affect prognosis of acutely-ill aged patients. Several lines of evidence suggest geriatric syndromes need to be assessed but little is known on their relative effect on the 30-day survival after ICU admission. The primary aim of this study was to describe the prevalence of frailty, cognition decline and activity of daily life in addition to the presence of comorbidity and polypharmacy and to assess their influence on 30-day survival.

Methods

Prospective cohort study with 242 ICUs from 22 countries. Patients 80 years or above acutely admitted over a six months period to an ICU between May 2018 and May 2019 were included. In addition to common patients’ characteristics and disease severity, we collected information on specific geriatric syndromes as potential predictive factors for 30-day survival, frailty (Clinical Frailty scale) with a CFS > 4 defining frail patients, cognitive impairment (informant questionnaire on cognitive decline in the elderly (IQCODE) with IQCODE ≥ 3.5 defining cognitive decline, and disability (measured the activity of daily life with the Katz index) with ADL ≤ 4 defining disability. A Principal Component Analysis to identify co-linearity between geriatric syndromes was performed and from this a multivariable model was built with all geriatric information or only one: CFS, IQCODE or ADL. Akaike’s information criterion across imputations was used to evaluate the goodness of fit of our models.

Results

We included 3920 patients with a median age of 84 years (IQR: 81–87), 53.3% males). 80% received at least one organ support. The median ICU length of stay was 3.88 days (IQR: 1.83–8). The ICU and 30-day survival were 72.5% and 61.2% respectively. The geriatric conditions were median (IQR): CFS: 4 (3–6); IQCODE: 3.19 (3–3.69); ADL: 6 (4–6); Comorbidity and Polypharmacy score (CPS): 10 (7–14). CFS, ADL and IQCODE were closely correlated. The multivariable analysis identified predictors of 1-month mortality (HR; 95% CI): Age (per 1 year increase): 1.02 (1.–1.03, p = 0.01), ICU admission diagnosis, sequential organ failure assessment score (SOFA) (per point): 1.15 (1.14–1.17, p < 0.0001) and CFS (per point): 1.1 (1.05–1.15, p < 0.001). CFS remained an independent factor after inclusion of life-sustaining treatment limitation in the model.

Conclusion

We confirm that frailty assessment using the CFS is able to predict short-term mortality in elderly patients admitted to ICU. Other geriatric syndromes do not add improvement to the prediction model. Since CFS is easy to measure, it should be routinely collected for all elderly ICU patients in particular in connection to advance care plans, and should be used in decision making.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1007/s00134-019-05853-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Conservative vs liberal fluid therapy in septic shock (CLASSIC) trial-Protocol and statistical analysis plan

INTRODUCTION

Intravenous (IV) fluid is a key intervention in the management of septic shock. The benefits and harms of lower versus higher fluid volumes are unknown and thus clinical equipoise exists. We describe the protocol and detailed statistical analysis plan for the conservative versus liberal approach to fluid therapy of septic shock in the Intensive Care (CLASSIC) trial. The aim of the CLASSIC trial is to assess benefits and harms of IV fluid restriction versus standard care in adult intensive care unit (ICU) patients with septic shock.

METHODS

CLASSIC trial is an investigator-initiated, international, randomised, stratified, and analyst-blinded trial. We will allocate 1554 adult patients with septic shock, who are planned to be or are admitted to an ICU, to IV fluid restriction versus standard care. The primary outcome is mortality at day 90. Secondary outcomes are serious adverse events (SAEs), serious adverse reactions (SARs), days alive at day 90 without life support, days alive and out of the hospital at day 90 and mortality, health-related quality of life (HRQoL), and cognitive function at 1 year. We will conduct the statistical analyses according to a pre-defined statistical analysis plan, including three interim analyses. For the primary analysis, we will use logistic regression adjusted for the stratification variables comparing the two interventions in the intention-to-treat (ITT) population.

DISCUSSION

The CLASSIC trial results will provide important evidence to guide clinicians' choice regarding the IV fluid therapy in adults with septic shock.

P2815Antiplatelet therapy with cangrelor in patients undergoing surgery after coronary stent implantation: a real-world bridging protocol experience

Background

Perioperative management of dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in patients deemed at high thrombotic risk undergoing non-deferrable surgery remains poorly defined. Cangrelor represents a potential treatment option as a “bridge” from discontinuation of oral P2Y12 receptor antagonists to surgical procedures, but data in this setting are still scant.

Purpose

We sought to describe a real-world experience of a bridging protocol using cangrelor for patients referred to relevant bleeding risk surgery requiring withdrawal of DAPT.

Methods

We collected data from 7 Italian centers on patients with previous PCI, still on DAPT, undergoing non-deferrable surgery which required discontinuation of one or both antiplatelet agents. A standardized bridging protocol using cangrelor infusion before and eventually after surgery was applied (Figure 1).

Results

Between December 2017 and January 2019, a total of 18 patients (mean age 70±10 years; male 85%) were enrolled. In the majority (89%) of patients, the index PCI was performed due to acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and 2±1.7 stents per patient were implanted. All patients required non-deferrable, intermediate-high bleeding risk surgery as pulmonary lobectomy, colectomy, endoscopic bladder surgery, paranasal sinus surgery, coronary artery by-pass surgery and valvular repair, hip replacement, endoscopy sphincterotomy. High thrombotic risk categories included PCI time <1 month, SCA time <3 months, stent failure occurrence, previous Absorb BVS implantation. Due to the surgical bleeding risk, discontinuation of P2Y12 inhibitor was required 5 days before surgery (ticagrelor, n=13; prasugrel=1; clopidogrel, n=5). All patients but 1 maintained aspirin through the perioperative phase. Cangrelor infusion was started at a bridging dose (0.75 mcg/kg/min) 3 days before planned surgery and was discontinued 6.9±1.5 hours before. After surgery, drainages were left in all patients but 3. In 56% of patients, cangrelor was resumed within 24 hours from surgery (mean time 9±7 hours) for a mean of 36±38 hours. Drainages were removed after discontinuation of cangrelor, in order to reduce bleeding complications. Within 2 hours from post-operative cangrelor discontinuation, a 300 mg clopidogrel loading dose was administered. No major ischemic adverse outcomes occurred during hospital stay and up to 30 days follow-up. The mean Hb drop was 2±1.8 g/dl, 7 patients received blood transfusions consistent with the type of surgeries and no life-threatening or fatal bleeding occurred.

Figure 1. Standardized bridging protocol.

Conclusions

Peri-operative bridge therapy with cangrelor is a feasible approach for stented patients at high thrombotic risk referred to non-deferrable surgery requiring DAPT discontinuation. Larger studies are warranted to support the safety of this strategy.

The REDS score: a new scoring system to risk-stratify emergency department suspected sepsis: a derivation and validation study

OBJECTIVE

To derive and validate a new clinical prediction rule to risk-stratify emergency department (ED) patients admitted with suspected sepsis.

DESIGN

Retrospective prognostic study of prospectively collected data.

SETTING

ED.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients aged ≥18 years who met two Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome criteria or one Red Flag sepsis criteria on arrival, received intravenous antibiotics for a suspected infection and admitted.

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURE

In-hospital all-cause mortality.

METHOD

The data were divided into derivation and validation cohorts. The simplified-Mortality in Severe Sepsis in the ED score and quick-SOFA scores, refractory hypotension and lactate were collectively termed 'component scores' and cumulatively termed the 'Risk-stratification of ED suspected Sepsis (REDS) score'. Each patient in the derivation cohort received a score (0-3) for each component score. The REDS score ranged from 0 to 12. The component scores were subject to univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. The receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves for the REDS and the components scores were constructed and their cut-off points identified. Scores above the cut-off points were deemed high-risk. The area under the ROC (AUROC) curves and sensitivity for mortality of the high-risk category of the REDS score and component scores were compared. The REDS score was internally validated.

RESULTS

2115 patients of whom 282 (13.3%) died in hospital. Derivation cohort: 1078 patients with 140 deaths (13%). The AUROC curve with 95% CI, cut-off point and sensitivity for mortality (95% CI) of the high-risk category of the REDS score were: derivation: 0.78 (0.75 to 0.80); ≥3; 85.0 (78 to 90.5).

VALIDATION

0.74 (0.71 to 0.76); ≥3; 84.5 (77.5 to 90.0). The AUROC curve and the sensitivity for mortality of the REDS score was better than that of the component scores. Specificity and mortality rates for REDS scores of ≥3, ≥5 and ≥7 were 54.8%, 88.8% and 96.9% and 21.8%, 36.0% and 49.1%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The REDS score is a simple and objective score to risk-stratify ED patients with suspected sepsis.

Functional hemodynamic tests: a systematic review and a metanalysis on the reliability of the end-expiratory occlusion test and of the mini-fluid challenge in predicting fluid responsiveness

Background

Bedside functional hemodynamic assessment has gained in popularity in the last years to overcome the limitations of static or dynamic indexes in predicting fluid responsiveness. The aim of this systematic review and metanalysis of studies is to investigate the reliability of the functional hemodynamic tests (FHTs) used to assess fluid responsiveness in adult patients in the intensive care unit (ICU) and operating room (OR).

Methods

MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Cochrane databases were screened for relevant articles using a FHT, with the exception of the passive leg raising. The QUADAS-2 scale was used to assess the risk of bias of the included studies. In-between study heterogeneity was assessed through the I² indicator. Bias assessment graphs were plotted, and Egger’s regression analysis was used to evaluate the publication bias. The metanalysis determined the pooled area under the receiving operating characteristic (ROC) curve, sensitivity, specificity, and threshold for two FHTs: the end-expiratory occlusion test (EEOT) and the mini-fluid challenge (FC).

Results

After text selection, 21 studies met the inclusion criteria, 7 performed in the OR, and 14 in the ICU between 2005 and 2018. The search included 805 patients and 870 FCs with a median (IQR) of 39 (25–50) patients and 41 (30–52) FCs per study. The median fluid responsiveness was 54% (45–59). Ten studies (47.6%) adopted a gray zone analysis of the ROC curve, and a median (IQR) of 20% (15–51) of the enrolled patients was included in the gray zone. The pooled area under the ROC curve for the end-expiratory occlusion test (EEOT) was 0.96 (95%CI 0.92–1.00). The pooled sensitivity and specificity were 0.86 (95%CI 0.74–0.94) and 0.91 (95%CI 0.85–0.95), respectively, with a best threshold of 5% (4.0–8.0%). The pooled area under the ROC curve for the mini-FC was 0.91 (95%CI 0.85–0.97). The pooled sensitivity and specificity were 0.82 (95%CI 0.76–0.88) and 0.83 (95%CI 0.77–0.89), respectively, with a best threshold of 5% (3.0–7.0%).

Conclusions

The EEOT and the mini-FC reliably predict fluid responsiveness in the ICU and OR. Other FHTs have been tested insofar in heterogeneous clinical settings and, despite promising results, warrant further investigations.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s13054-019-2545-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Huge variation in obtaining ethical permission for a non-interventional observational study in Europe

Background

Ethical approval (EA) must be obtained before medical research can start. We describe the differences in EA for an pseudonymous, non-interventional, observational European study.

Methods

Sixteen European national coordinators (NCs) of the international study on very old intensive care patients answered an online questionnaire concerning their experience getting EA.

Results

N = 8/16 of the NCs could apply at one single national ethical committee (EC), while the others had to apply to various regional ECs and/or individual hospital institutional research boards (IRBs). The time between applying for EA and the first decision varied between 7 days and 300 days. In 9/16 informed consent from the patient was not deemed necessary; in 7/16 informed consent was required from the patient or relatives. The upload of coded data to a central database required additional information in 14/16. In 4/16 the NCs had to ask separate approval to keep a subject identification code list to de-pseudonymize the patients if questions would occur. Only 2/16 of the NCs agreed that informed consent was necessary for this observational study. Overall, 6/16 of the NCs were satisfied with the entire process and 8/16 were (very) unsatisfied. 11/16 would welcome a European central EC that would judge observational studies for all European countries.

Discussion

Variations in the process and prolonged time needed to get EA for observational studies hampers inclusion of patients in some European countries. This might have a negative influence on the external validity. Further harmonization of ethical approval process across Europe is welcomed for low-risk observational studies.

Conclusion

Getting ethical approval for low-risk, non-interventional, observational studies varies enormously across European countries.

Determinants of left ventricular ejection fraction and a novel method to improve its assessment of myocardial contractility

Background

The aim of this study was to quantify the impact of different cardiovascular factors on left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) and test a novel LVEF calculation considering these factors.

Results

10 pigs were studied. The experimental protocol consisted of sequentially changing afterload, preload and contractility. LV pressure–volume (PV) loops and peripheral arterial pressure were obtained before and after each intervention. LVEF was calculated as stroke volume (SV)/end-diastolic volume (EDV). We studied global cardiac function variables: LV end-systolic elastance (Ees), effective arterial elastance (Ea), end-diastolic volume and heart rate. Diastolic function was evaluated by means of the ventricular relaxation time (τ) and ventricular stiffness constant (β) obtained from the end-diastolic PV relationship. Ventriculo-arterial coupling (VAC), an index of cardiovascular performance, was calculated as Ea/Ees. LV mechanical efficiency (LVeff) was calculated as the ratio of stroke work to LV pressure–volume area. A linear mixed model was used to determine the impact of cardiac factors (Ees, Ea, EDV and heart rate), VAC and LVeff on LVEF during all experimental conditions. LVEF was mainly related to Ees and Ea. There was a strong relationship between LVEF and both VAC and LVeff (r² = 0.69 and r² = 0.94, respectively). The relationship between LVEF and Ees was good (r² = 0.43). Adjusting LVEF to afterload (\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$${\text{LVEF}}_{\rm EA} = {\text{EF}} \times \sqrt {\text{Ea}}$$\end{document}LVEFEA=EF×Ea) performed better for estimating Ees (r² = 0.75) and improved the tracking of LV contractility changes, even when a peripheral Ea was used as surrogate (Ea = radial MAP/SV; r² = 0.73).

Conclusions

LVEF was mainly affected by contractility and afterload changes and was strongly related to VAC and LVeff. An adjustment to LVEF that considers the impact of afterload provided a better assessment of LV contractility.

Cumulative Prognostic Score Predicting Mortality in Patients Older Than 80 Years Admitted to the ICU

OBJECTIVES

To develop a scoring system model that predicts mortality within 30 days of admission of patients older than 80 years admitted to intensive care units (ICUs).

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

SETTING

A total of 306 ICUs from 24 European countries.

PARTICIPANTS

Older adults admitted to European ICUs (N = 3730; median age = 84 years [interquartile range = 81‐87 y]; 51.8% male).

MEASUREMENTS

Overall, 24 variables available during ICU admission were included as potential predictive variables. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify independent predictors of 30‐day mortality. Model sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy were evaluated with receiver operating characteristic curves.

RESULTS

The 30‐day‐mortality was 1562 (41.9%). In multivariable analysis, these variables were selected as independent predictors of mortality: age, sex, ICU admission diagnosis, Clinical Frailty Scale, Sequential Organ Failure Score, invasive mechanical ventilation, and renal replacement therapy. The discrimination, accuracy, and calibration of the model were good: the area under the curve for a score of 10 or higher was .80, and the Brier score was .18. At a cut point of 10 or higher (75% of all patients), the model predicts 30‐day mortality in 91.1% of all patients who die.

CONCLUSION

A predictive model of cumulative events predicts 30‐day mortality in patients older than 80 years admitted to ICUs. Future studies should include other potential predictor variables including functional status, presence of advance care plans, and assessment of each patient's decision‐making capacity.