Differences in serotonin transporter binding affinity in patients with major depressive disorder and night eating syndrome

OBJECTIVE

We examined serotonin transporter (SERT) binding affinity using single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) in patients with major depressive disorder (MDD) and night eating syndrome (NES). There are similarities between MDD and NES in affective symptoms, appetite disturbance, nighttime awakenings, and, particularly, response to selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs).

METHODS

Six non-depressed patients with NES and seven patients with MDD underwent SPECT brain imaging with 123I-ADAM, a radiopharmaceutical agent selective for SERT sites. Uptake ratios of 123I-ADAM SERT binding were obtained for the midbrain, basal ganglia, and temporal lobe regions compared to the cerebellum reference region.

RESULTS

Patients with NES had significantly greater SERT uptake ratios (effect size range 0.64-0.84) in the midbrain, right temporal lobe, and left temporal lobe regions than those with MDD whom we had previously studied.

CONCLUSIONS

Pathophysiological differences in SERT uptake between patients with NES and MDD suggest these are distinct clinical syndromes.

Presence of the metabolic syndrome is not a better predictor of cardiovascular disease than the sum of its components in HIV-infected individuals: data collection on adverse events of anti-HIV drugs (D:A:D) study

OBJECTIVE

It is much debated whether the metabolic syndrome contributes additional information over and above that provided by the individual components of the syndrome alone. Among HIV-infected individuals, we investigated whether any particular combinations of the components included in the definition of the metabolic syndrome are associated with a higher risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD).

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We followed 33,347 HIV-infected individuals in a prospective observational study. The effect of combinations of components of the metabolic syndrome (low HDL cholesterol, high triglycerides, high BMI, hypertension, and diabetes) on the risk of CVD was assessed by Poisson regression incorporating interactions between each component pair and adjusting for age, sex, family history of CVD, smoking status, calendar year, and exposure to antiretroviral therapy. We reduced the risk of type 1 errors by randomly splitting the data set for training (70% of sample) and validation (remaining 30%).

RESULTS

In the training data set, 671 patients experienced a CVD event over 110,652 person-years. Unadjusted, the presence of metabolic syndrome at study enrollment (>or=3 of the factors) was associated with a 2.89 higher risk of CVD (95% CI 2.34-3.59; P = 0.0001) compared with individuals without the metabolic syndrome. After adjustment for the individual components, the metabolic syndrome as an entity no longer predicted the risk of CVD (adjusted relative risk 0.85; 95% CI 0.61-1.17; P = 0.32). No significant positive interactions were found among the components of the metabolic syndrome.

CONCLUSIONS

The presence of the metabolic syndrome in HIV-infected individuals did not appear to increase the CVD risk over and above that conferred by the components of the syndrome separately.

Diabetes mellitus, preexisting coronary heart disease, and the risk of subsequent coronary heart disease events in patients infected with human immunodeficiency virus: the Data Collection on Adverse Events of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D Study)

BACKGROUND

Although guidelines in individuals not infected with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) consider diabetes mellitus (DM) to be a coronary heart disease (CHD) equivalent, there is little information on its association with CHD in those infected with HIV. We investigated the impact of DM and preexisting CHD on the development of a new CHD episode among 33,347 HIV-infected individuals in the Data Collection on Adverse Events of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D Study).

METHODS AND RESULTS

Over 159,971 person-years, 698 CHD events occurred. After adjustment for gender, age, cohort, HIV transmission, ethnicity, family history of CHD, smoking, and calendar year, the rate of a CHD episode was 7.52 times higher (Poisson regression, 95% CI 6.02 to 9.39, P=0.0001) in those with preexisting CHD than in those without preexisting CHD, but it was only 2.41 times higher (95% CI 1.91 to 3.05, P=0.0001) in those with preexisting DM compared with those without DM. No statistical interactions were apparent between either diagnosis and sex; although older people with DM had an increased CHD rate compared with younger people, older people with preexisting CHD had a lower event rate. A statistically significant interaction between preexisting DM and CHD (P=0.003) suggested that the CHD rate in those with preexisting CHD and DM is lower than expected on the basis of the main effects alone.

CONCLUSIONS

DM and preexisting CHD are both important risk factors for CHD events in HIV-infected individuals. There is a need for targeted interventions to reduce the risk of CHD in both high-risk groups of HIV-infected individuals.

Absence of a relation between efavirenz plasma concentrations and toxicity-driven efavirenz discontinuations in the EuroSIDA study

BACKGROUND

Co1nflicting data exist regarding the effect of efavirenz (EFV) plasma concentrations on central nervous system (CNS) toxicity. We aimed to determine whether patients with high EFV plasma concentrations have an increased likelihood of toxicity-driven EFV discontinuations.

METHODS

EFV plasma concentrations were measured from patients in the EuroSIDA study starting EFV after 1 January 1999. Patients with a plasma concentration available were divided into those that discontinued EFV because of any toxicity or by the choice of the patient or physician within 2 years (TOXPC group) and those that continued EFV for > or = 2 years (no toxicity group). Multivariable logistic regression modelling was used to investigate the effects of the EFV plasma concentration and those of other potentially relevant factors on the risk of toxicity-induced EFV discontinuations.

RESULTS

A total of 843 patients were included. Of these patients, 138 patients (16.4%) discontinued EFV because of TOXPC and 705 (83.6%) patients continued EFV for 22 years. A total of 20 (14.5%) patients in the TOXPC group had high EFV plasma concentrations (>4.0 mg/l) compared with 99 (14.0%) patients in the no toxicity group (P = 0.890). A positive hepatitis C status (P = 0.026), but not the EFV plasma concentration, was an independent predictor of toxicity-driven EFV discontinuations.

CONCLUSIONS

No association was found between EFV plasma concentrations and the risk of EFV discontinuations because of (CNS) toxicity. This result questions the designation of EFV plasma concentrations >4.0 mg/l as being 'toxic', at least when defined by treatment discontinuation.

HIV-induced immunodeficiency and mortality from AIDS-defining and non-AIDS-defining malignancies

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate deaths from AIDS-defining malignancies (ADM) and non-AIDS-defining malignancies (nADM) in the D:A:D Study and to investigate the relationship between these deaths and immunodeficiency.

DESIGN

Observational cohort study.

METHODS

Patients (23 437) were followed prospectively for 104 921 person-years. We used Poisson regression models to identify factors independently associated with deaths from ADM and nADM. Analyses of factors associated with mortality due to nADM were repeated after excluding nADM known to be associated with a specific risk factor.

RESULTS

Three hundred five patients died due to a malignancy, 298 prior to the cutoff for this analysis (ADM: n = 110; nADM: n = 188). The mortality rate due to ADM decreased from 20.1/1000 person-years of follow-up [95% confidence interval (CI) 14.4, 25.9] when the most recent CD4 cell count was <50 cells/microl to 0.1 (0.03, 0.3)/1000 person-years of follow-up when the CD4 cell count was more than 500 cells/microl; the mortality rate from nADM decreased from 6.0 (95% CI 3.3, 10.1) to 0.6 (0.4, 0.8) per 1000 person-years of follow-up between these two CD4 cell count strata. In multivariable regression analyses, a two-fold higher latest CD4 cell count was associated with a halving of the risk of ADM mortality. Other predictors of an increased risk of ADM mortality were homosexual risk group, older age, a previous (non-malignancy) AIDS diagnosis and earlier calendar years. Predictors of an increased risk of nADM mortality included lower CD4 cell count, older age, current/ex-smoking status, longer cumulative exposure to combination antiretroviral therapy, active hepatitis B infection and earlier calendar year.

CONCLUSION

The severity of immunosuppression is predictive of death from both ADM and nADM in HIV-infected populations.

Risk for opportunistic disease and death after reinitiating continuous antiretroviral therapy in patients with HIV previously receiving episodic therapy: a randomized trial

BACKGROUND

Episodic use of antiretroviral therapy guided by CD4+ cell counts is inferior to continuous antiretroviral therapy.

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether reinitiating continuous antiretroviral therapy in patients who received episodic treatment reduces excess risk for opportunistic disease or death.

DESIGN

Randomized, controlled trial.

SETTING

Sites in 33 countries.

PATIENTS

5472 HIV-infected individuals with CD4(+) cell counts greater than 0.350 x 10(9) cells/L enrolled from January 2002 to January 2006.

INTERVENTION

Episodic or continuous antiretroviral therapy initially, followed by continuous therapy in participants previously assigned to episodic treatment.

MEASUREMENTS

Opportunistic disease or death was the primary outcome.

RESULTS

Eighteen months after the recommendation to reinitiate continuous therapy, mean CD4+ cell counts were 0.152 x 10(9) cells/L (95% CI, 0.136 to 0.167 x 10(9) cells/L) less in participants previously assigned to episodic treatment (P < 0.001). The proportion of follow-up time spent with CD4+ cell counts of 0.500 x 10(9) cells/L or more and HIV RNA levels of 400 copies/mL or less was 29% for participants initially assigned to episodic therapy and 66% for those assigned to continuous therapy. Participants who reinitiated continuous therapy experienced rapid suppression of HIV RNA levels (89.7% with HIV RNA levels < or =400 copies/mL after 6 months), but CD4+ cell counts after 6 months remained 0.140 x 10(9) cells/L below baseline. The hazard ratio (episodic versus continuous treatment) for opportunistic disease or death decreased after the recommendation to reinitiate continuous therapy (from 2.5 [CI, 1.8 to 3.5] to 1.4 [CI, 1.0 to 2.0]; P = 0.033 for difference). The residual excess risk was attributable to failure to reinitiate therapy by some participants and slow recovery of CD4+ cell counts for those who reinitiated therapy.

LIMITATION

Follow-up was too short to assess the full effect of switching from episodic to continuous antiretroviral therapy.

CONCLUSION

Reinitiating continuous antiretroviral therapy in patients previously assigned to episodic treatment reduced excess risk for opportunistic disease or death, but excess risk remained. Episodic antiretroviral therapy, as used in the SMART study, should be avoided.

European AIDS Clinical Society (EACS) guidelines on the prevention and management of metabolic diseases in HIV

BACKGROUND

Metabolic diseases are frequently observed in HIV-infected persons and, as the risk of contracting these diseases is age-related, their prevalence will increase in the future as a consequence of the benefits of antiretroviral therapy (ART).

SUMMARY OF GUIDELINES

All HIV-infected persons should be screened at regular intervals for a history of metabolic disease, dyslipidaemia, diabetes mellitus, hypertension and alteration of body composition; cardiovascular risk and renal function should also be assessed. Efforts to prevent cardiovascular disease will vary in intensity depending on an individual's absolute risk of ischaemic heart disease and should be comprehensive in nature. Lifestyle interventions should focus on counselling to stop smoking, modify diet and take regular exercise. A healthy diet, exercise and maintaining normal body weight tend to reduce dyslipidaemia; if not effective, a change of ART should be considered, followed by use of lipid-lowering medication in high-risk patients. A pre-emptive switch from thymidine analogues is recommended to reduce the risk of development or progression of lipoatrophy. Intra-abdominal fat accumulation is best managed by exercise and diet. Prevention and management of type 2 diabetes mellitus and hypertension follow guidelines used in the general population. When using medical interventions to prevent and/or treat metabolic disease(s), impairment of the efficacy of ART should be avoided by considering the possibility of pharmacokinetic interactions and compromised adherence. Specialists in HIV and specialists in metabolic diseases should consult each other, in particular in difficult-to-treat cases.

CONCLUSION

Multiple and relatively simple approaches exist to prevent metabolic diseases in HIV-infected persons; priority should be given to patients at high risk of contracting these diseases.

The Procalcitonin And Survival Study (PASS) - a randomised multi-center investigator-initiated trial to investigate whether daily measurements biomarker Procalcitonin and pro-active diagnostic and therapeutic responses to abnormal Procalcitonin levels, can improve survival in intensive care unit patients. Calculated sample size (target population): 1000 patients

BACKGROUND

Sepsis and complications to sepsis are major causes of mortality in critically ill patients. Rapid treatment of sepsis is of crucial importance for survival of patients. The infectious status of the critically ill patient is often difficult to assess because symptoms cannot be expressed and signs may present atypically. The established biological markers of inflammation (leucocytes, C-reactive protein) may often be influenced by other parameters than infection, and may be unacceptably slowly released after progression of an infection. At the same time, lack of a relevant antimicrobial therapy in an early course of infection may be fatal for the patient. Specific and rapid markers of bacterial infection have been sought for use in these patients.

METHODS

Multi-centre randomized controlled interventional trial. Powered for superiority and non-inferiority on all measured end points. Complies with, "Good Clinical Practice" (ICH-GCP Guideline (CPMP/ICH/135/95, Directive 2001/20/EC)). Inclusion: 1) Age > or = 18 years of age, 2) Admitted to the participating intensive care units, 3) Signed written informed consent.Exclusion: 1) Known hyper-bilirubinaemia. or hypertriglyceridaemia, 2) Likely that safety is compromised by blood sampling, 3) Pregnant or breast feeding. Computerized Randomisation: Two arms (1:1), n = 500 per arm: Arm 1: standard of care. Arm 2: standard of care and Procalcitonin guided diagnostics and treatment of infection. Primary Trial Objective: To address whether daily Procalcitonin measurements and immediate diagnostic and therapeutic response on day-to-day changes in procalcitonin can reduce the mortality of critically ill patients.

DISCUSSION

For the first time ever, a mortality-endpoint, large scale randomized controlled trial with a biomarker-guided strategy compared to the best standard of care, is conducted in an Intensive care setting. Results will, with a high statistical power answer the question: Can the survival of critically ill patients be improved by actively using biomarker procalcitonin in the treatment of infections? 700 critically ill patients are currently included of 1000 planned (June 2008). Two interim analyses have been passed without any safety or futility issues, and the third interim analysis is soon to take place. Trial registration number at clinicaltrials.gov: Id. nr.: NCT00271752).

Pneumonia in HIV-infected persons: increased risk with cigarette smoking and treatment interruption

RATIONALE

Bacterial pneumonia is a major cause of morbidity for HIV-infected persons and contributes to excess mortality in this population.

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the frequency and risk factors for occurrence of bacterial pneumonia in the present era of potent antiretroviral therapy.

METHODS

We evaluated data from a randomized trial of episodic antiretroviral therapy. The study, Strategies for Management of Antiretroviral Therapy, enrolled 5,472 participants at 318 sites in 33 countries. Study patients had more than 350 CD4 cells at baseline. Diagnosis of bacterial pneumonia was confirmed by a blinded clinical-events committee.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

During a mean follow-up of 16 months, 116 participants (2.2%) developed at least one episode of bacterial pneumonia. Patients randomized to receive episodic antiretroviral therapy were significantly more likely to develop pneumonia than patients randomized to receive continuous antiretroviral therapy (hazard ratio, 1.55; 95% confidence interval, 1.07-2.25; P = 0.02). Cigarette smoking was a major risk factor: Current-smokers had more than an 80% higher risk of pneumonia compared with never-smokers (hazard ratio, 1.82; 95% confidence interval, 1.09-3.04; P = 0.02). Participants who were on continuous HIV treatment and were current smokers were three times more likely to develop bacterial pneumonia than nonsmokers. Current smoking status was significant, but a past history of smoking was not.

CONCLUSIONS

Bacterial pneumonia is a major source of morbidity, even for persons on potent antiretroviral therapy, including those with high CD4 cells. Efforts to reduce this illness should stress the importance of uninterrupted antiretroviral therapy and attainment and/or maintenance of nonsmoking status.

Fungal infection as a risk factor for HIV disease progression among patients with a CD4 count above 200/microl in the era of cART

The identification of clinical risk factors for AIDS in patients with preserved immune function is of significant interest. We examined whether patients with fungal infection (FI) and CD4 cell count >or=200/microl were at higher risk of disease progression in the era of cART. 11,009 EuroSIDA patients were followed from their first CD4 cell count >or=200/microl after 1 January 1997 until progression to any non-azoles/amphotericin B susceptible (AAS) AIDS disease, last visit or death. Initiation of antimycotic therapy (AMT) was used as a marker of FI and was modelled as a time-updated covariate using Poisson regression. After adjustment for current CD4 cell count, HIV-RNA, starting cART and diagnosis of AAS-AIDS, AMT was significantly associated with an increased incidence of non-AAS-AIDS (IRR=1.55, 95% CI 1.17-2.06, p=0.0024). Despite low incidence of AIDS in the cART era, FI in patients with a CD4 cell count >or=200/microl is associated with a 55% higher risk of non-AAS-AIDS (95% confidence interval 1.17-2.06, p=0.0024). These data suggest that patients with FI are more immune compromized than would be expected from their CD4 cell count alone. FI can be used as a clinical marker for disease progression and indirect indicator for initiation/changing cART in settings where laboratory facilities are limited.

Prediction of phenotypic susceptibility to antiretroviral drugs using physiochemical properties of the primary enzymatic structure combined with artificial neural networks

OBJECTIVES

Genotypic interpretation systems extrapolate observed associations in datasets to predict viral susceptibility to antiretroviral drugs (ARVs) for given isolates. We aimed to develop and validate an approach using artificial neural networks (ANNs) that employ descriptors of physiochemical properties for mutations in HIV-1 protease (PR) and reverse transcriptase (RT) to predict phenotypic susceptibility to all currently approved ARVs.

METHOD

We extracted pairs of PR and RT gene sequences (n=1507; 98.5% sub-type B) and their corresponding exact phenotype values (PhenoSense only, n=10 132) from the Stanford HIV database. All amino acid positions and mixture codes were accounted for. For each ARV, an ANN was trained with 10-fold internal cross-validation. The predictive abilities of these trained ANNs were validated on separate datasets.

RESULTS

Correlation coefficients between observed and predicted phenotype values in the 10-fold cross-validation ranged from: 0.75 (tenofovir) to 0.94 [lamivudine (3TC)] for nucleoside RT inhibitors (NRTIs); 0.82 [efavirenz (EFV)] to 0.83 [nevirapine (NVP)] for non-nucleoside RT inhibitors (NNRTIs); and 0.83 (atazanavir) to 0.92 (ritonavir) for PR inhibitors (PIs). For the validation set the correlation coefficients ranged from 0.76 (didanosine) to 0.96 (3TC) for NRTIs; 0.68 (EFV) to 0.81 (NVP) for NNRTIs; and 0.88 (amprenavir) to 0.95 (saquinavir) for PIs. For C sub-type predictions, with ANNs trained on sub-type B data, the correlation coefficient was 0.89.

CONCLUSIONS

ANNs, based on the physiochemical properties of the PR and RT amino-acid sequences, predict phenotypic susceptibility to ARVs inhibiting these enzymes to an extent that is comparable to routine phenotypic susceptibility testing. These ANNs can also be used to predict resistance to C sub-types.

Interruption of antiretroviral therapy and risk of cardiovascular disease in persons with HIV-1 infection: exploratory analyses from the SMART trial

BACKGROUND

The SMART trial found a raised risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) events in patients undergoing CD4+ T cell-count guided intermittent antiretroviral therapy (ART) compared with patients on continuous ART. Exploratory analyses were performed to better understand the reasons for this observation.

METHODS

A total of 5,472 patients with CD4+ T-cell counts >350 cells/mm3 were recruited and randomized to either continuous ART (the viral suppression arm; VS) or CD4+ T-cell count-guided use of ART (the drug conservation arm; DC).

RESULTS

Major CVD events developed in 79 patients. The hazard ratio (HR) for risk of CVD events for DC versus VS was 1.57 (95% confidence interval 1.00-2.46; P=0.05). There was no evidence that being off ART or a higher current HIV viral load were associated with increased CVD risk. Total cholesterol and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol were reduced as a result of ART interruption in DC patients but so was high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, leading to a net unfavourable change in the total/HDL cholesterol ratio.

CONCLUSIONS

Reasons for the higher risk of CVD for DC compared with VS patients remain unclear. There was no clear evidence to suggest that ART interruption per se or a higher HIV viral load were associated with an increased CVD risk in the DC group. Lipid changes were less favourable among DC compared with VS patients, which could offer a partial explanation.

Incidence of abacavir hypersensitivity reactions in EuroSIDA

Background

The aim of the study was to investigate the incidence of abacavir-related hypersensitivity reaction (HSR) and associated deaths in EuroSIDA HIV-1-infected patients.

Methods

Poisson regression models were developed to compare incidence of abacavir discontinuation according to the line of therapy within which abacavir was received, geographical regions, calendar time and drug formulation (abacavir/lamivudine combination tablet versus abacavir as a single drug or abacavir/zidovudine/ lamivudine combination).

Results

Of 3,278 patients that started abacavir, 2,101 (64.1%) discontinued. Of these, 167 (5.1%) discontinued abacavir within 3 months due to HSR with an incidence of 22.1 (95% confidence interval [CI] 18.7–25.4) per 100 person-years of follow-up. After adjustment for gender, prior AIDS, hepatitis C serostatus, baseline CD4+ T-cell count, region and calendar time, HSR incidence was significantly higher in those starting abacavir in a first-line regimen compared with second-line (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 2.04 [95% CI 1.24–3.38]; P=0.005). There was no significant difference between regions. HSR incidence from 2005 onwards was significantly lower compared with 1999–2000 (IRR 0.54 [95% CI 0.32–0.92]; P=0.024). There was a lower observed incidence in patients starting abacavir/lamivudine compared with other formulations (IRR 0.33 [95% CI 0.13 –0.88]; P=0.027), however, available data were limited.

Conclusions

Incidence of abacavir-related HSR is higher in patients starting abacavir in first-line therapy, which could indicate increased over-diagnosis. HSR incidence has decreased in recent years, which might reflect the wider availability of genetic screening and improved awareness of symptoms. There were no reported deaths due to abacavir HSR.

Changes over time in risk factors for cardiovascular disease and use of lipid-lowering drugs in HIV-infected individuals and impact on myocardial infarction

BACKGROUND

Because of the known relationship between exposure to combination antiretroviral therapy and cardiovascular disease (CVD), it has become increasingly important to intervene against risk of CVD in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected patients. We evaluated changes in risk factors for CVD and the use of lipid-lowering therapy in HIV-infected individuals and assessed the impact of any changes on the incidence of myocardial infarction.

METHODS

The Data Collection on Adverse Events of Anti-HIV Drugs Study is a collaboration of 11 cohorts of HIV-infected patients that included follow-up for 33,389 HIV-infected patients from December 1999 through February 2006.

RESULTS

The proportion of patients at high risk of CVD increased from 35.3% during 1999-2000 to 41.3% during 2005-2006. Of 28,985 patients, 2801 (9.7%) initiated lipid-lowering therapy; initiation of lipid-lowering therapy was more common for those with abnormal lipid values and those with traditional risk factors for CVD (male sex, older age, higher body mass index [calculated as the weight in kilograms divided by the square of the height in meters], family and personal history of CVD, and diabetes mellitus). After controlling for these, use of lipid-lowering drugs became relatively less common over time. The incidence of myocardial infarction (0.32 cases per 100 person-years [PY]; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.29-0.35 cases per 100 PY) appeared to remain stable. However, after controlling for changes in risk factors for CVD, the rate decreased over time (relative rate in 2003 [compared with 1999-2000], 0.73 cases per 100 PY [95% CI, 0.50-1.05 cases per 100 PY]; in 2004, 0.64 cases per 100 PY [95% CI, 0.44-0.94 cases per 100 PY]; in 2005-2006, 0.36 cases per 100 PY [95% CI, 0.24-0.56 cases per 100 PY]). Further adjustment for lipid levels attenuated the relative rates towards unity (relative rate in 2003 [compared with 1999-2000], 1.06 cases per 100 PY [95% CI, 0.63-1.77 cases per 100 PY]; in 2004, 1.02 cases per 100 PY [95% CI, 0.61-1.71 cases per 100 PY]; in 2005-2006, 0.63 cases per 100 PY [95% CI, 0.36-1.09 cases per 100 PY]).

CONCLUSIONS

Although the CVD risk profile among patients in the Data Collection on Adverse Events of Anti-HIV Drugs Study has decreased since 1999, rates have remained relatively stable, possibly as a result of a more aggressive approach towards managing the risk of CVD.

Outcomes from monitoring of patients on antiretroviral therapy in resource-limited settings with viral load, CD4 cell count, or clinical observation alone: a computer simulation model

BACKGROUND

In lower-income countries, WHO recommends a population-based approach to antiretroviral treatment with standardised regimens and clinical decision making based on clinical status and, where available CD4 cell count, rather than viral load. Our aim was to study the potential consequences of such monitoring strategies, especially in terms of survival and resistance development.

METHODS

A validated computer simulation model of HIV infection and the effect of antiretroviral therapy was used to compare survival, use of second-line regimens, and development of resistance that result from different strategies-based on viral load, CD4 cell count, or clinical observation alone-for determining when to switch people starting antiretroviral treatment with the WHO-recommended first-line regimen of stavudine, lamivudine, and nevirapine to second-line antiretroviral treatment.

FINDINGS

Over 5 years, the predicted proportion of potential life-years survived was 83% with viral load monitoring (switch when viral load >500 copies per mL), 82% with CD4 cell count monitoring (switch at 50% drop from peak), and 82% with clinical monitoring (switch when two new WHO stage 3 events or a WHO stage 4 event occur). Corresponding values over 20 years were 67%, 64%, and 64%. Findings were robust to variations in model specification in extensive univariable and multivariable sensitivity analyses. Although survival was slightly longer with viral load monitoring, this strategy was not the most cost effective.

INTERPRETATION

For patients on the first-line regimen of stavudine, lamivudine, and nevirapine the benefits of viral load or CD4 cell count monitoring over clinical monitoring alone are modest. Development of cheap and robust versions of these assays is important, but widening access to antiretrovirals-with or without laboratory monitoring-is currently the highest priority.

Use of nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors and risk of myocardial infarction in HIV-infected patients enrolled in the D:A:D study: a multi-cohort collaboration

BACKGROUND

Whether nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors increase the risk of myocardial infarction in HIV-infected individuals is unclear. Our aim was to explore whether exposure to such drugs was associated with an excess risk of myocardial infarction in a large, prospective observational cohort of HIV-infected patients.

METHODS

We used Poisson regression models to quantify the relation between cumulative, recent (currently or within the preceding 6 months), and past use of zidovudine, didanosine, stavudine, lamivudine, and abacavir and development of myocardial infarction in 33 347 patients enrolled in the D:A:D study. We adjusted for cardiovascular risk factors that are unlikely to be affected by antiretroviral therapy, cohort, calendar year, and use of other antiretrovirals.

FINDINGS

Over 157,912 person-years, 517 patients had a myocardial infarction. We found no associations between the rate of myocardial infarction and cumulative or recent use of zidovudine, stavudine, or lamivudine. By contrast, recent-but not cumulative-use of abacavir or didanosine was associated with an increased rate of myocardial infarction (compared with those with no recent use of the drugs, relative rate 1.90, 95% CI 1.47-2.45 [p=0.0001] with abacavir and 1.49, 1.14-1.95 [p=0.003] with didanosine); rates were not significantly increased in those who stopped these drugs more than 6 months previously compared with those who had never received these drugs. After adjustment for predicted 10-year risk of coronary heart disease, recent use of both didanosine and abacavir remained associated with increased rates of myocardial infarction (1.49, 1.14-1.95 [p=0.004] with didanosine; 1.89, 1.47-2.45 [p=0.0001] with abacavir).

INTERPRETATION

There exists an increased risk of myocardial infarction in patients exposed to abacavir and didanosine within the preceding 6 months. The excess risk does not seem to be explained by underlying established cardiovascular risk factors and was not present beyond 6 months after drug cessation.

Inferior Clinical Outcome of the CD4+ Cell Count–Guided Antiretroviral Treatment Interruption Strategy in the SMART Study: Role of CD4+ Cell Counts and HIV RNA Levels during Follow-up

Background and methodsThe SMART study compared 2 strategies for using antiretroviral therapy—drug conservation (DC) and viral suppression (VS)—in 5472 human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)–infected patients with CD4+ cell counts &gt;350 cells/μL. Rates and predictors of opportunistic disease or death (OD/death) and the relative risk (RR) in DC versus VS groups according to the latest CD4+ cell count and HIV RNA level are reported

ResultsDuring a mean of 16 months of follow-up, DC patients spent more time with a latest CD4+ cell count &lt;350 cells/μL (for DC vs. VS, 31% vs. 8%) and with a latest HIV RNA level &gt;400 copies/mL (71% vs. 28%) and had a higher rate of OD/death (3.4 vs. 1.3/100 person-years) than VS patients. For periods of follow-up with a CD4+ cell count &lt;350 cells/μL, rates of OD/death were increased but similar in the 2 groups (5.7 vs. 4.6/100 person-years), whereas the rates were higher in DC versus VS patients (2.3 vs. 1.0/100 person-years; RR, 2.3 [95% confidence interval, 1.5–3.4]) for periods with the latest CD4+ cell count ⩾350 cells/μL—an increase explained by the higher HIV RNA levels in the DC group

ConclusionsThe higher risk of OD/death in DC patients was associated with (1) spending more follow-up time with relative immunodeficiency and (2) living longer with uncontrolled HIV replication even at higher CD4+ cell counts. Ongoing HIV replication at a given CD4+ cell count places patients at an excess risk of OD/death

Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT00027352

Modelled in vivo HIV Fitness under drug Selective Pressure and Estimated Genetic Barrier Towards Resistance are Predictive for Virological Response

Background

A method has been developed to estimate a fitness landscape experienced by HIV-1 under treatment selective pressure as a function of the genotypic sequence thereby also estimating the genetic barrier to resistance.

Methods

We evaluated the performance of two estimated fitness landscapes (nelfinavir [NFV] and zidovudine [AZT] plus lamivudine [3TC]) to predict week 12 viral load (VL) change for 176 treatment change episodes (TCEs) and probability of week 48 virological failure for 90 TCEs, in treatment experienced patients starting these drugs in combination.

Results

A higher genetic barrier for AZT plus 3TC, (quantified per additional mutation required to develop resistance against these drugs) was associated with a 0.54 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.30–0.77) larger log10 VL reduction at 12 weeks ( P<0.0001) and a 0.39 (95% CI 0.23–0.66) lower odds of virological failure at 48 weeks ( P=0.0005), in analyses adjusting for the pre-TCE VL and the exact time-lag between the TCE and the date of determining response VL. The strength of these associations was comparable with those seen with expert interpretation systems (Rega, ANRS and HIVDB). A higher genetic barrier to NFV resistance was the only genotypic predictor that tended to be associated with a 0.19 (95% CI 0–0.39) higher log10 VL reduction at 12 weeks ( P=0.05) and a 0.63 (95% CI 0.36–1.09) lower odds of virological failure at 48 weeks ( P=0.10) per additional mutation.

Conclusions

These results suggest that an estimated genetic barrier derived from fitness landscapes may contribute to an improvement of predicted treatment outcome for NFV and this approach should be explored for other drugs.