Transmission modes and the evolution of virulence : With special reference to cholera, influenza, and AIDS

Will COVID-19 become mild, like a cold?

Several recent studies conclude that an increase in the pathogenicity of SARS-CoV-2 cannot be ruled out. However, it should be noted that SARS-CoV-2 is a 'direct' respiratory virus - meaning it is usually spread by the respiratory route but does not routinely pass through the lymphatics like measles and smallpox. Providing its tropism does not change, it will be unique if its pathogenicity does not decrease until it becomes similar to common cold viruses. Ewald noted in the 1980s that respiratory viruses may evolve mildness because their spread benefits from the mobility of their hosts. This review examines factors that usually lower respiratory viruses' severity, including heat sensitivity (which limits replication in the warmer lungs) and changes to the virus's surface proteins. Other factors may, however, increase pathogenicity, such as replication in the lymphatic system and spreading via solid surfaces or faecal matter. Furthermore, human activities and political events could increase the harmfulness of SARS-CoV-2, including the following: large-scale testing, especially when the results are delayed; transmission in settings where people are close together and not free to move around; poor hygiene facilities; and social, political, or cultural influences that encourage sick individuals to remain active, including crises such as wars. If we can avoid these eventualities, SARS-CoV-2 is likely to evolve to be milder, although the timescale is uncertain. Observations of influenza-like pandemics suggest it may take around two decades for COVID-19 to become as mild as seasonal colds.

Evolutionary principles for modifying pathogen virulence

Current methods for combatting infectious diseases are largely limited to the prevention of infection, enhancing host immunity (via vaccination), and administration of small molecules to slow the growth of or kill pathogens (e.g. antimicrobials). Beyond efforts to deter the rise of antimicrobial resistance, little consideration is given to pathogen evolution. Natural selection will favor different levels of virulence under different circumstances. Experimental studies and a wealth of theoretical work have identified many likely evolutionary determinants of virulence. Some of these, such as transmission dynamics, are amenable to modification by clinicians and public health practitioners. In this article, we provide a conceptual overview of virulence, followed by an analysis of modifiable evolutionary determinants of virulence including vaccinations, antibiotics, and transmission dynamics. Finally, we discuss both the importance and limitations of taking an evolutionary approach to reducing pathogen virulence.

[Deadliest flu]

Many questions remain unanswered regarding the so-called "Spanish" influenza pandemic of 1918. This article addresses three of them and describes the state of knowledge for each of them: Where did the pandemic start? How many people died? And why was it so deadly?

Specific resistance prevents the evolution of general resistance and facilitates disease emergence

Host-shifts, where pathogens jump from an ancestral host to a novel host, can be facilitated or impeded by standing variation in disease resistance, but only if resistance provides broad-spectrum general resistance against multiple pathogen species. Host resistance comes in many forms and includes both general resistance, as well as specific resistance, which may only be effective against a single pathogen species or even genotype. However, most evolutionary models consider only one of these forms of resistance, and we have less understanding of how these two forms of resistance evolve in tandem. Here, we develop a model that allows for the joint evolution of specific and general resistance and asks if the evolution of specific resistance drives a decrease in the evolution of general resistance. We also explore how these evolutionary outcomes affect the risk of foreign pathogen invasion and persistence. We show that in the presence of a single endemic pathogen, the two forms of resistance are strongly exclusionary. Critically, we find that specific resistance polymorphisms can prevent the evolution of general resistance, facilitating the invasion of foreign pathogens. We also show that specific resistance polymorphisms are a necessary condition for the successful establishment of foreign pathogens following invasion, as they prevent the exclusion of the foreign pathogen by the more transmissible endemic pathogen. Our results demonstrate the importance of considering the joint evolution of multiple forms of resistance when evaluating a population's susceptibility to foreign pathogens.

Seasonal host and ecological drivers may promote restricted water as a viral vector

In climates with seasonally limited precipitation, terrestrial animals congregate at high densities at scarce water sources. We hypothesize that viruses can exploit the recurrence of these diverse animal congregations to spread. In this study, we test the central prediction of this hypothesis - that viruses employing this transmission strategy remain stable and infectious in water. Equid herpesviruses (EHVs) were chosen as a model as they have been shown to remain stable and infectious in water for weeks under laboratory conditions. Using fecal data from wild equids from a previous study, we establish that EHVs are shed more frequently by their hosts during the dry season, increasing the probability of water source contamination with EHV. We document the presence of several strains of EHVs present in high genome copy number from the surface water and sediments of waterholes sampled across a variety of mammalian assemblages, locations, temperatures and pH. Phylogenetic analysis reveals that the different EHV strains found exhibit little divergence despite representing ancient lineages. We employed molecular approaches to show that EHVs shed remain stable in waterholes with detection decreasing with increasing temperature in sediments. Infectivity experiments using cell culture reveals that EHVs remain infectious in water derived from waterholes. The results are supportive of water as an abiotic viral vector for EHV.

The roles of environmental variation and parasite survival in virulence-transmission relationships

Disease outbreaks are a consequence of interactions among the three components of a host-parasite system: the infectious agent, the host and the environment. While virulence and transmission are widely investigated, most studies of parasite life-history trade-offs are conducted with theoretical models or tractable experimental systems where transmission is standardized and the environment controlled. Yet, biotic and abiotic environmental factors can strongly affect disease dynamics, and ultimately, host-parasite coevolution. Here, we review research on how environmental context alters virulence-transmission relationships, focusing on the off-host portion of the parasite life cycle, and how variation in parasite survival affects the evolution of virulence and transmission. We review three inter-related 'approaches' that have dominated the study of the evolution of virulence and transmission for different host-parasite systems: (i) evolutionary trade-off theory, (ii) parasite local adaptation and (iii) parasite phylodynamics. These approaches consider the role of the environment in virulence and transmission evolution from different angles, which entail different advantages and potential biases. We suggest improvements to how to investigate virulence-transmission relationships, through conceptual and methodological developments and taking environmental context into consideration. By combining developments in life-history evolution, phylogenetics, adaptive dynamics and comparative genomics, we can improve our understanding of virulence-transmission relationships across a diversity of host-parasite systems that have eluded experimental study of parasite life history.

Environmental Detection and Potential Transmission of Equine Herpesviruses

Equine herpesviruses (EHV) are a major health concern for domestic and wild equids and represent one of the most economically important disease agents of horses. Most known EHVs are transmitted directly between individuals as a result of direct exposure to exudates and aerosols. However, accumulating evidence suggests that environmental transmission may play a role including air, water, and fomites. Here, we reviewed studies on environmental stability and transmission of EHVs, which may influence viral dynamics and the use of environmental samples for monitoring EHV shedding.

Infectious diseases and social distancing in nature

Spread of contagious pathogens critically depends on the number and types of contacts between infectious and susceptible hosts. Changes in social behavior by susceptible, exposed, or sick individuals thus have far-reaching downstream consequences for infectious disease spread. Although "social distancing" is now an all too familiar strategy for managing COVID-19, nonhuman animals also exhibit pathogen-induced changes in social interactions. Here, we synthesize the effects of infectious pathogens on social interactions in animals (including humans), review what is known about underlying mechanisms, and consider implications for evolution and epidemiology.

On the Evolution of Virulent Zoonotic Viruses in Bats

Ideas formulated by Paul Ewald about the “evolution of virulence” are used to explain why bats, more often than other mammals, are a reservoir of virulent viruses, and why many of these viruses severely affect other mammals, including humans, but are apparently less pathogenic for bats. Potential factors contributing to bat viruses often being zoonotic are briefly discussed.

Modelling lifestyle changes in Insect endosymbionts, from insect mutualist to plant pathogen

Several insect endosymbionts have evolved to become plant pathogens, but the causes of this transition are currently unknown. In this paper, we use adaptive dynamics to develop hypotheses to explain why an insect endosymbiont would evolve to become a plant pathogen. We develop a model of facultative insect endosymbionts, capable of both vertical transmission within the insect population and horizontal transmission between insect and plant populations. We assume that an evolutionary trade-off between vertical and horizontal transmission exists. The transmission method of an endosymbiont is correlated with the nature of the symbiotic relationship between host and symbiont. We assume that vertical transmission represents an insect endosymbiont lifestyle and horizontal transmission represents a plant pathogen lifestyle. Our results suggest that temperature increases, increased agricultural intensification, disease dynamics within the plant host, insect mating system and change in the host plant of the insect may influence an evolutionary transition from an insect endosymbiont to a plant pathogen.

Multiple transmission routes sustain high prevalence of a virulent parasite in a butterfly host

Understanding factors that allow highly virulent parasites to reach high infection prevalence in host populations is important for managing infection risks to human and wildlife health. Multiple transmission routes have been proposed as one mechanism by which virulent pathogens can achieve high prevalence, underscoring the need to investigate this hypothesis through an integrated modelling-empirical framework. Here, we examine a harmful specialist protozoan infecting monarch butterflies that commonly reaches high prevalence (50–100%) in resident populations. We integrate field and modelling work to show that a combination of three empirically-supported transmission routes (vertical, adult transfer and environmental transmission) can produce and sustain high infection prevalence in this system. Although horizontal transmission is necessary for parasite invasion, most new infections post-establishment arise from vertical transmission. Our study predicts that multiple transmission routes, coupled with high parasite virulence, can reduce resident host abundance by up to 50%, suggesting that the protozoan could contribute to declines of North American monarchs.

Experimental bacterial adaptation to the zebrafish gut reveals a primary role for immigration

All animals live in intimate association with microorganisms that profoundly influence their health and development, yet the traits that allow microorganisms to establish and maintain host associations are not well understood. To date, most investigations aimed at identifying traits required for host association have focused on intrahost niches. Consequently, little is known about the relative contribution of extrahost factors such as environmental growth and survival and immigration into hosts from the external environment, as promoters of host association. To address this, we developed a tractable experimental evolution system that investigates both intra- and extrahost factors contributing to bacterial adaptation to the vertebrate gut. We passaged replicate lines of a zebrafish bacterial isolate, Aeromonas veronii, through populations of germ-free larval zebrafish (Danio rerio), each time using gut-associated Aeromonas populations to inoculate the aquatic environment of the next zebrafish population. We observed rapid increased adaptation to the host in all replicate lines. The initial adaptations present in early-evolved isolates did not increase intrahost fitness but rather enhanced both immigration from the environment and interhost transmission. Only in later-evolved isolates did we find evidence for intrahost-specific adaptations, as demonstrated by comparing their competitive fitness in the host genotype to which they evolved to that in a different genotype. Our results show how selection for bacterial transmission between hosts and their environment can shape bacterial-host association. This work illuminates the nature of selective forces present in host-microbe systems and reveals specific mechanisms of increased host association. Furthermore, our findings demonstrate that the entire host-microbe-environment system must be considered when identifying microbial traits that contribute to host adaptation.

On the relationship between body condition and parasite infection in wildlife: a review and meta-analysis

Body condition metrics are widely used to infer animal health and to assess costs of parasite infection. Since parasites harm their hosts, ecologists might expect negative relationships between infection and condition in wildlife, but this assumption is challenged by studies showing positive or null condition-infection relationships. Here, we outline common condition metrics used by ecologists in studies of parasitism, and consider mechanisms that cause negative, positive, and null condition-infection relationships in wildlife systems. We then perform a meta-analysis of 553 condition-infection relationships from 187 peer-reviewed studies of animal hosts, analysing observational and experimental records separately, and noting whether authors measured binary infection status or intensity. Our analysis finds substantial heterogeneity in the strength and direction of condition-infection relationships, a small, negative average effect size that is stronger in experimental studies, and evidence for publication bias towards negative relationships. The strongest predictors of variation in study outcomes are host thermoregulation and the methods used to evaluate body condition. We recommend that studies aiming to assess parasite impacts on body condition should consider host-parasite biology, choose condition measures that can change during the course of infection, and employ longitudinal surveys or manipulate infection status when feasible.

Genetic assessment of Staphylococcus aureus in an underreported locality: Ambulatory care clinic

BACKGROUND

Staphylococcus aureus has strong association with anthropogenic environments. This association has not been well supported by use of genetic tools. The aim of this study was to phylogenetically relate numerous isolates from three environments - NCBI samples from hospitals, a community, and a previously unexplored healthcare environment: an ambulatory care clinic (ACC).

METHODS

This study incorporated hospital samples from NCBI, a community database from the University of Central Florida (UCF), and newly added samples taken from employees of an ambulatory care clinic located at UCF. Samples were collected from nasal swabs of employees, and positive samples were cultured, extracted, and sequenced at seven MLST loci and one virulence locus (spa). MLST sequences were used in eBURST and TCS population structure analyses and all sequences were incorporated into a phylogenetic reconstruction of relationships.

RESULTS

A total of 185 samples were incorporated in this study (15 NCBI sequences from hospital infections, 29 from the ACC, and 141 from the community). In both phylogenetic and population genetics analyses, samples proved to be panmixic, with samples not segregating monophyletically based on sample origin.

CONCLUSION

Samples isolated from ambulatory care clinics are not significantly differentiated from either community or hospital samples at the representative loci chosen. These results strengthen previous conclusions that S. aureus may exhibit high genetic similarity across anthropogenic environments.

Transmission as a basic process in microbial biology. Lwoff Award Prize Lecture

Transmission is a basic process in biology and evolution, as it communicates different biological entities within and across hierarchical levels (from genes to holobionts) both in time and space. Vertical descent, replication, is transmission of information across generations (in the time dimension), and horizontal descent is transmission of information across compartments (in the space dimension). Transmission is essentially a communication process that can be studied by analogy of the classic information theory, based on 'emitters', 'messages' and 'receivers'. The analogy can be easily extended to the triad 'emigration', 'migration' and 'immigration'. A number of causes (forces) determine the emission, and another set of causes (energies) assures the reception. The message in fact is essentially constituted by 'meaningful' biological entities. A DNA sequence, a cell and a population have a semiotic dimension, are 'signs' that are eventually recognized (decoded) and integrated by receiver biological entities. In cis-acting or unenclosed transmission, the emitters and receivers correspond to separated entities of the same hierarchical level; in trans-acting or embedded transmission, the information flows between different, but frequently nested, hierarchical levels. The result (as in introgressive events) is constantly producing innovation and feeding natural selection, influencing also the evolution of transmission processes. This review is based on the concepts presented at the André Lwoff Award Lecture in the FEMS Microbiology Congress in Maastricht in 2015.

VIRULENCE

Why do parasites harm their hosts? Intuition suggests that parasites should evolve to be benign whenever the host is needed for transmission. Yet a growing theoretical literature offers several models to explain why natural selection may favor virulent parasites over avirulent ones. This perspective first organizes these models into a simple framework and then evaluates the empirical evidence for and against the models. There is relatively scant evidence to support any of the models rigorously, and indeed, there are only a few unequivocal observations of virulence actually evolving in parasite populations. These shortcomings are surmountable, however, and empirical models of host-parasite interactions have been developed for many kinds of pathogens so that the relevant data could be acquired in the near future.

HOST POPULATION STRUCTURE AND THE EVOLUTION OF VIRULENCE: A "LAW OF DIMINISHING RETURNS"

Structure in a population of host individuals, whether spatial or temporal, can have important effects on the transmission and evolutionary dynamics of its pathogens. One of these is to limit dispersal of pathogens and thus increase the amount of contact between a given pair or within a small group of host individuals. We introduce a "law of diminishing returns" that predicts an evolutionary decline of pathogen virulence whenever there are on average more possibilities of pathogen transmission between the same pair of hosts. Thus, the effect of repeated contact between hosts will be to shift the balance of any trade-off between virulence and transmissibility toward lower virulence.

SUBOPTIMAL VIRULENCE OF AN INSECT-PARASITIC NEMATODE

Recent considerations of parasite virulence have focused on the adverse effects that parasites can have on the survival of their hosts. Many parasites, however, reduce host fitness by an equally deleterious but different means, by causing partial or complete sterility of their hosts. A model of optimal parasite virulence is developed in which a quantity of host resources can be allocated to either host or parasite reproduction. Increases in parasite reproduction thus cause reductions in host fertility. The model shows that under a wide variety of ecological conditions, such parasites should completely sterilize their hosts. Only when opportunities for horizontal transmission are very limited should the parasites appropriate less than all of a host's reproductive resources. Field and laboratory evidence shows that the nematode parasite Howardula aoronymphium is relatively avirulent to one of its principal host species, Drosophila falleni, whereas it is much more virulent to D. putrida and D. neotestacea, suggesting that there may be substantial vertical transmission in D. falleni. However, epidemiological studies in the field and laboratory assays of host specificity strongly suggest that the three host species share a single parasite pool in natural populations, indicating that parasites in all three host species experience high levels of horizontal transmission. Thus, the low virulence of H. aoronymphium to D. falleni is not consistent with the model of optimal parasite virulence. It is proposed that this suboptimal virulence in D. falleni is a consequence of populations of H. aoronymphium being selected to exploit simultaneously several different host species. As a result, virulence may not be optimal in any one host. One must, therefore, consider the full range of host species in assessing a parasite's virulence.

Who acquires infection from whom and how? Disentangling multi-host and multi-mode transmission dynamics in the 'elimination' era

Multi-host infectious agents challenge our abilities to understand, predict and manage disease dynamics. Within this, many infectious agents are also able to use, simultaneously or sequentially, multiple modes of transmission. Furthermore, the relative importance of different host species and modes can itself be dynamic, with potential for switches and shifts in host range and/or transmission mode in response to changing selective pressures, such as those imposed by disease control interventions. The epidemiology of such multi-host, multi-mode infectious agents thereby can involve a multi-faceted community of definitive and intermediate/secondary hosts or vectors, often together with infectious stages in the environment, all of which may represent potential targets, as well as specific challenges, particularly where disease elimination is proposed. Here, we explore, focusing on examples from both human and animal pathogen systems, why and how we should aim to disentangle and quantify the relative importance of multi-host multi-mode infectious agent transmission dynamics under contrasting conditions, and ultimately, how this can be used to help achieve efficient and effective disease control.This article is part of the themed issue 'Opening the black box: re-examining the ecology and evolution of parasite transmission'.

Evolution of virulence, environmental change, and the threat posed by emerging and chronic diseases

Assessments of future threats posed by infection have focused largely on zoonotic, acute disease, under the rubric "emerging diseases." Evolutionary and epidemiological studies indicate, however, that particular aspects of infrastructure, such as protected water supplies, vector-proof housing, and health care facilities, protect against the emergence of zoonotic, acute infectious diseases. While attention in the global health community has focused on emerging diseases, there has been a concurrent, growing recognition that important chronic diseases, such as cancer, are often caused by infectious agents that are already widespread in human populations. For economically prosperous countries, the immediacy of this threat contrasts with their infrastructural protection from severe acute infectious disease. This reasoning leads to the conclusion that chronic infectious diseases pose a more significant threat to economically prosperous countries than zoonotic, acute infectious diseases. Research efforts directed at threats posed by infection may therefore be more effective overall if increased efforts are directed toward understanding and preventing infectious causes of chronic diseases across the spectrum of economic prosperity, as well as toward specific infrastructural improvements in less prosperous countries to protect against virulent, acute infectious diseases.

Conservation and animal welfare issues arising from forestry practices

Forestry practices may directly kill animals as well as destroy and fragment their habitat. Even without habitat destruction, logging and its associated forest management practices (which include road building, re-forestation, and often increased recreational use) create noise, frighten animals, and may lead to changes in species composition as well as evolutionary responses to the myriad of anthropogenic impacts. Thus, forestry practices may create conservation problems. Forestry practices may also create welfare problems that may act on different temporal and spatial scales than the conservation problems. The individuals affected by forestry may have heightened glucocorticoid levels that may lead to a predictable set of deleterious consequences. Individuals may no longer be able to communicate, or they may no longer be attractive to potential mates. Such welfare problems may generate conservation problems if fitness is reduced. Identifying the set of possible impacts is the first step towards improving welfare and aiding wildlife conservation in managed forests.

Transient virulence of emerging pathogens

Should emerging pathogens be unusually virulent? If so, why? Existing theories of virulence evolution based on a tradeoff between high transmission rates and long infectious periods imply that epidemic growth conditions will select for higher virulence, possibly leading to a transient peak in virulence near the beginning of an epidemic. This transient selection could lead to high virulence in emerging pathogens. Using a simple model of the epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of emerging pathogens, along with rough estimates of parameters for pathogens such as severe acute respiratory syndrome, West Nile virus and myxomatosis, we estimated the potential magnitude and timing of such transient virulence peaks. Pathogens that are moderately evolvable, highly transmissible, and highly virulent at equilibrium could briefly double their virulence during an epidemic; thus, epidemic-phase selection could contribute significantly to the virulence of emerging pathogens. In order to further assess the potential significance of this mechanism, we bring together data from the literature for the shapes of tradeoff curves for several pathogens (myxomatosis, HIV, and a parasite of Daphnia) and the level of genetic variation for virulence for one (myxomatosis). We discuss the need for better data on tradeoff curves and genetic variance in order to evaluate the plausibility of various scenarios of virulence evolution.

The design and use of an agent-based model to simulate the 1918 influenza epidemic at Norway House, Manitoba

Agent-based modeling provides a new approach to the study of virgin soil epidemics like the 1918 flu. In this bottom-up simulation approach, a landscape can be created and populated with a heterogeneous group of agents who move and interact in ways that more closely resemble human behavior than is usually seen in other modeling techniques. In this project, an agent-based model was constructed to simulate the spread of the 1918 influenza pandemic through the Norway House community in Manitoba, Canada. Archival, ethnographic, epidemiological, and biological information were used to aid in designing the structure of the model and to estimate values for model parameters. During the epidemic, Norway House was a Hudson's Bay Company post and a Swampy Cree-Métis settlement with an economy based on hunting, fishing, and the fur trade. The community followed a traditional, seasonal travel pattern of summer aggregation and winter dispersal. The model was used to examine how seasonal community structures and associated population movement patterns may have influenced disease transmission and epidemic spread. Simulations of the model clearly demonstrate that human behavior can significantly influence epidemic outcomes.

Experimentally induced change in infectious period affects transmission dynamics in a social group

A key component of any epidemiological model is the infectious period, which greatly affects the dynamics and persistence of an infection. Social organization, leading to behavioural and spatial heterogeneities among potential susceptibles, interacts with infectious period to create different risk categories within a group. Using the honeybee (Apis mellifera) colony as a social model, a protocol that creates different infectious periods in individual bees and another that follows the diffusion of a transmittable tracer within a colony, we show experimentally how a short infectious period results in an epidemic process with low prevalence confined only to individuals at the outer edge of a group, while a long infectious period results in high prevalence distributed more universally among all the group members. We call this finding an evidence of 'organizational immunity' in a social network and propose that the honeybee colony provides a unique opportunity to test its role in social transmission processes.

Biology of flower-infecting fungi

The ability to infect host flowers offers important ecological benefits to plant-parasitic fungi; not surprisingly, therefore, numerous fungal species from a wide range of taxonomic groups have adopted a life style that involves flower infection. Although flower-infecting fungi are very diverse, they can be classified readily into three major groups: opportunistic, unspecialized pathogens causing necrotic symptoms such as blossom blights (group 1), and specialist flower pathogens which infect inflorescences either through the gynoecium (group 2) or systemically through the apical meristem (group 3). This three-tier system is supported by life history attributes such as host range, mode of spore transmission, degree of host sterilization as a result of infection, and whether or not the fungus undergoes an obligate sexual cycle, produces resting spores in affected inflorescences, and is r- or K-selected. Across the three groups, the flower as an infection court poses important challenges for disease management. Ecologically and evolutionarily, terms and concepts borrowed from the study of venereal (sexually transmitted) diseases of animals do not adequately capture the range of strategies employed by fungi that infect flowers.

Receding horizons of health: biocultural approaches to public health paradoxes

Worldwide challenges to health reflect a "paradox of success," whereby both the strengths and the weaknesses of current approaches in public health, epidemiology, and biomedicine have determined the nature of the health problems we now face. In detail, we analyze and illustrate five constituent paradoxes that fuel continued health risk even in the face of success, including: (1) unmasking, (2) local biology, (3) socialization, (4) emerging and reemerging disease, and (5) savage inequity. We trace the pathways behind the paradoxes and their effects on health, and demonstrate that biocultural dynamics are involved in each. Furthermore, we track the roots of health paradox to changes that divert or disrupt pathways for production of health. These analyses contribute to an emerging literature of research and praxis on integrative biocultural models of health.

Pathogen survival in the external environment and the evolution of virulence

Recent studies have provided evolutionary explanations for much of the variation in mortality among human infectious diseases. One gap in this knowledge concerns respiratory tract pathogens transmitted from person to person by direct contact or through environmental contamination. The sit-and-wait hypothesis predicts that virulence should be positively correlated with durability in the external environment because high durability reduces the dependence of transmission on host mobility. Reviewing the epidemiological and medical literature, we confirm this prediction for respiratory tract pathogens of humans. Our results clearly distinguish a high-virulence high-survival group of variola (smallpox) virus, Mycobacterium tuberculosis, Cornynebacterium diphtheriae, Bordetella pertussis, Streptococcus pneumoniae, and influenza virus (where all pathogens have a mean percent mortality > or = 0.01% and mean survival time >10 days) from a low-virulence low-survival group containing ten other pathogens. The correlation between virulence and durability explains three to four times of magnitude of difference in mean percent mortality and mean survival time, using both across-species and phylogenetically controlled analyses. Our findings bear on several areas of active research and public health policy: (1) many pathogens used in the biological control of insects are potential sit-and-wait pathogens as they combine three attributes that are advantageous for pest control: high virulence, long durability after application, and host specificity; (2) emerging pathogens such as the 'hospital superbug' methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) and potential bioweapons pathogens such as smallpox virus and anthrax that are particularly dangerous can be discerned by quantifying their durability; (3) hospital settings and the AIDS pandemic may provide footholds for emerging sit-and-wait pathogens; and (4) studies on food-borne and insect pathogens point to future research considering the potential evolutionary trade-offs and genetic linkages between virulence and durability.

Molecular evidence for host-adapted races of the fungal endophyte Epichloë bromicola after presumed host shifts

Host shifts of plant-feeding insects and parasites promote adaptational changes that may result in the formation of host races, an assumed intermediate stage in sympatric speciation. Here, we report on genetically differentiated and host-adapted races of the fungal endophyte Epichloë bromicola, which presumably emerged after a shift from the grass Bromus erectus to other Bromus hosts. Fungi of the genus Epichloë (Ascomycota) and related anamorphs of Neotyphodium are widespread endophytes of cool-season grasses. Sexually reproducing strains sterilize the host by formation of external fruiting structures (stromata), whereas asexual strains are asymptomatic and transmitted via seeds. In E. bromicola, strains infecting B. erectus are sexual, and strains from two woodland species, B. benekenii and B. ramosus, are asexual and seed transmitted. Analyses of amplified fragment length polymorphism fingerprinting and of intron sequences of the tub2 and tef1 genes of 26 isolates from the three Bromus hosts collected at natural sites in Switzerland and nearby France demonstrated that isolates are genetically differentiated according to their host, indicating that E. bromicola does not form a single, randomly mating population. Phylogenetic analyses of sequence data did not unambiguously resolve the exact origin of asexual E. bromicola strains, but it is likely they arose from within sexual populations on B. erectus. Incongruence of trees derived from different genes may have resulted from recombination at some time in the recent history of host strains. Reciprocal inoculations of host plant seedlings showed that asexual isolates from B. benekenii and B. ramosus were incapable of infecting B. erectus, whereas the sexual isolates from B. erectus retained the assumed ancestral trait of broad compatibility with Bromus host seedlings. Because all isolates were interfertile in experimental crosses, asexual strains may not be considered independent biological species. We suggest that isolates infecting B. benekenii and B. ramosus represent long-standing host races or incipient species that emerged after host shifts and that may evolve through host-mediated reproductive isolation toward independent species.

Epidemiology, evolution, and future of the HIV/AIDS pandemic

We used mathematical models to address several questions concerning the epidemiologic and evolutionary future of HIV/AIDS in human populations. Our analysis suggests that 1) when HIV first enters a human population, and for many subsequent years, the epidemic is driven by early transmissions, possibly occurring before donors have seroconverted to HIV-positive status; 2) new HIV infections in a subpopulation (risk group) may decline or level off due to the saturation of the susceptible hosts rather than to evolution of the virus or to the efficacy of intervention, education, and public health measures; 3) evolution in humans for resistance to HIV infection or for the infection to engender a lower death rate will require thousands of years and will be achieved only after vast numbers of persons die of AIDS; 4) evolution is unlikely to increase the virulence of HIV; and 5) if HIV chemotherapy reduces the transmissibility of the virus, treating individual patients can reduce the frequency of HIV infections and AIDS deaths in the general population.

Venereal worms: sexually transmitted nematodes in the decorated cricket

The nematode, Mehdinema alii, occurs in the alimentary canal of the decorated cricket Gryllodes sigillatus. Adult nematodes occur primarily in the hindgut of mature male crickets, whereas juvenile nematodes are found in the genital chambers of mature male and female crickets. Here, we present experimental evidence for the venereal transmission of M. alii in G. sigillatus. Infectivity experiments were conducted to test for transmission via oral-fecal contamination, same-sex contact, and copulation. The infective dauers of the nematode are transferred from male to female crickets during copulation. Adult female crickets harboring infective dauers subsequently transfer the nematode to their next mates. Thus, M. alii is transmitted sexually during copulation.

Virulence evolution in a virus obeys a trade-off

The evolution of virulence was studied in a virus subjected to alternating episodes of vertical and horizontal transmission. Bacteriophage f1 was used as the parasite because it establishes a debilitating but non-fatal infection that can be transmitted vertically (from a host to its progeny) as well as horizontally (infection of new hosts). Horizontal transmission was required of all phage at specific intervals, but was prevented otherwise. Each episode of horizontal transmission was followed by an interval of obligate vertical transmission, followed by an interval of obligate horizontal transmission etc. The duration of vertical transmission was eight times longer per episode in one treatment than in the other, thus varying the relative intensity of selection against virulence while maintaining selection for some level of virus production. Viral lines with the higher enforced rate of infectious transmission evolved higher virulence and higher rates of virus production. These results support the trade-off model for the evolution of virulence.

The evolution of virulence and emerging diseases

Insights into the evolution of virulence may aid efforts to control or even prevent emerging diseases. Specifically, dangerous pathogens can be distinguished from those that pose relatively little threat by identifying characteristics that favor intense exploitation of hosts by pathogens, hence causing high virulence. Studies to date have implicated several such characteristics, including transmission by vectors, attendants, water, and durable propagules. These insights may improve the return on investments in disease control by directing effort and resources to the most-dangerous emerging pathogens. The approach also should help us to identify those control measures that will guard against the future emergence of dangerous pathogens, even those that have not yet been identified.

The curse of the pharaoh hypothesis

The 'curse of the pharaoh' has been used as a metaphor for the hypothesis that higher parasite propagule survival selects for higher virulence. Indeed, the mysterious death of Lord Carnavon after entering the tomb of the Egyptian pharaoh Tutankhamen could potentially be explained by an infection with a highly virulent and very long-lived pathogen. In this paper, I investigate whether parasite virulence increases with high propagule survival. In this respect, I derive an analytic expression of the evolutionarily stable level of parasite virulence as a function of propagule survival rate when the host-parasite system has reached a stable ecological equilibrium. This result shows that, if multiple infection occurs, higher propagule survival generally increases parasite virulence. This effect is enhanced when parasite dispersal coevolves with parasite virulence. In a more general perspective, the model shows the importance of taking into account the combination of direct and indirect effects (which I call inclusive effects) of higher transmission ability on the evolution of parasite virulence. The recognition of these effects has several practical implications for virulence management.

Episodic evolution mediates interspecies transfer of a murine coronavirus

Molecular mechanisms permitting the establishment and dissemination of a virus within a newly adopted host species are poorly understood. Mouse hepatitis virus (MHV) strains (MHV-A59, MHV-JHM, and MHV-A59/MHV-JHM) were passaged in mixed cultures containing progressively increasing concentrations of nonpermissive Syrian baby hamster kidney (BHK) cells and decreasing concentrations of permissive murine DBT cells. From MHV-A59/MHV-JHM mixed infection, variant viruses (MHV-H1 and MHV-H2) which replicated efficiently in BHK cells were isolated. Under identical treatment conditions, the parental MHV-A59 or MHV-JHM strains failed to produce infectious virus or transcribe detectable levels of viral RNA or protein. The MHV-H isolates were polytrophic, replicating efficiently in normally nonpermissive Syrian hamster smooth muscle (DDT-1), Chinese hamster ovary (CHO), human adenocarcinoma (HRT), primate kidney (Vero), and murine 17Cl-1 cell lines. Little if any virus replication was detected in feline kidney (CRFK) and porcine testicular (ST) cell lines. The variant virus, MHV-H2, transcribed seven mRNAs equivalent in relative abundance and size to those synthesized by the parental virus strains. MHV-H2 was an RNA recombinant virus containing a crossover site in the S glycoprotein gene. At the molecular level, episodic evolution and positive Darwinian natural selection were apparent within the MHV-H2 S and HE glycoprotein genes. These findings differ from the hypothesis that neutral changes are the predominant feature of molecular evolution and argue that changing ecologies actuate episodic evolution in the MHV spike glycoprotein genes that govern interspecies transfer and spread into alternative hosts.

Fitness of parasites: pathology and selection

Parasites improve their fitness as a result of the selection of traits which determine their relationships with their hosts. Some of these relationships are examined briefly. There is a cost of virulence for parasites, paralleling the cost of resistance for hosts, which implies that the good health of the host can be a component of parasite fitness; conversely, some transmission modes imply that the host be markedly weakened by the parasite. Pathogenicity can be influenced by characters such as a transmission of the parasite from parents to offspring, or the demographic characteristics of the host populations. Important components of parasite fitness are: the complexity of the life-cycle; the degree of specialization for a more or less open host range; the conspicuousness or discretion of the infective and parasitic stages. However, the best possible adaptation to a particular host is not always selected: when a parasite exploits several host species, the gene flows between parasites which have developed in different hosts may be responsible for "maladaptation". This may be important for an understanding of the pathogenicity of certain human parasitic diseases.

Sexually transmitted diseases in animals: ecological and evolutionary implications

Sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) have been generally thought of as a small subset of infectious diseases, rather than as an important group of diseases that occur in numerous species. In this paper, we have (1) briefly reviewed theoretical studies on the dynamics of STDs; (2) documented the distribution of STDs in the animal kingdom; and (3) investigated whether STDs have characteristics which distinguish them from other infectious diseases. The dynamics of STDs should differ from those of ordinary infectious diseases because their transmission depends on the frequency rather than density of infectives. With this type of transmission, there is no threshold density for disease spread, and the conditions for host-pathogen coexistence are more restrictive. Nevertheless, a wide variety of disease characteristics may allow a sexually transmitted pathogen to coexist with its host. We found over 200 diseases for which there was evidence of sexual transmission. They occurred in groups as diverse as mammals, reptiles, arachnids, insects, molluscs and nematodes. Sexually transmitted pathogens included protozoans, fungi, nematodes, helminths, and cancerous cell lines, as well as bacteria and viruses. Detailed comparison of the characteristics of sexually transmitted mammalian diseases with those that are transmitted by non-sexual means, showed that STDs cause less mortality, are longer-lived in their hosts, are less likely to invoke strong immune responses, have narrower host-ranges, and show less fluctuation in prevalence over time. These shared features are related to mode of transmission rather than either host or pathogen taxonomic affiliation. This suggests an evolutionary explanation based on shared ecologies rather than one based on phylogenetic history.

The intrinsic rate of increase of HIV/AIDS: epidemiological and evolutionary implications

A method derived from demographic theory is presented for modeling the epidemiology of an infectious disease. For long-term infections, this method better accounts for host variation in survival and transmission rates than classical compartment models. Examples of the applications of this method focus on a single long-term infectious disease, HIV/AIDS. The method is employed to examine (1) how changes in transmission rates during different stages of infection affect the rate of spread of HIV/AIDS both in wholly susceptible populations and in populations where the number of potential hosts is limited, (2) the way the relative frequencies of the different stages of infection vary over time, (3) how the rate at which the epidemic is growing (or diminishing) affects the fraction of HIV-infected individuals who manifest the symptoms of AIDS, (4) the effect of treatment on the rate of spread of HIV, and (5) the potential effects of natural selection on the virulence of HIV.

The evolution of virulence in sexually transmitted HIV/AIDS

A mathematical model is used to examine the effects of host population demography and transmission behavior on the evolution of virulence of a sexually transmitted pathogen such as HIV. The effect of the rate at which hosts acquire new partners is shown to depend critically on the details of the host population's growth pattern, sexual contact rate, and level of infection. At density-limited equilibrium, new partner acquisition rates have no effect on virulence. In an exponentially growing host population, higher partner acquisition rates favor the less virulent strain, as do lower rates of host population growth. In contrast, in uninfected populations, faster new partner acquisition rates encourage epidemics of the more virulent strain. Two extensions of the model--one including vertical transmission and another including within-host evolution--confirm the robustness of the predictions.

Evolution of mutation rate and virulence among human retroviruses

High mutation rates are generally considered to be detrimental to the fitness of multicellular organisms because mutations untune finely tuned biological machinery. However, high mutation rates may be favoured by a need to evade an immune system that has been strongly stimulated to recognize those variants that reproduced earlier during the infection. HIV infections conform to this situation because they are characterized by large numbers of viruses that are continually breaking latency and large numbers that are actively replicating throughout a long period of infection. To be transmitted, HIVs are thus generally exposed to an immune system that has been activated to destroy them in response to prior viral replication in the individual. Increases in sexual contact should contribute to this predicament by favouring evolution toward relatively high rates of replication early during infection. Because rapid replication and high mutation rate probably contribute to rapid progression of infections to AIDS, the interplay of sexual activity, replication rate, and mutation rate helps explain why HIV-1 has only recently caused a lethal pandemic, even though molecular data suggest that it may have been present in humans for more than a century. This interplay also offers an explanation for geographic differences in progression to cancer found among infections due to the other major group of human retroviruses, human T-cell lymphotropic viruses (HTLV). Finally, it suggests ways in which we can use natural selection as a tool to control the AIDS pandemic and prevent similar pandemics from arising in the future.

Will AIDS be contained within U.S. minority urban populations?

Recent empirical research, and a simple stochastic modeling exercise, suggest that affluent suburban communities are at increased risk for the diffusion of HIV from present inner city epicenters, while the 'core group' construct of sexually transmitted disease theory suggests, somewhat counter-intuitively, that the hypercongregated and strongly self-interacting nature of affluent heterosexual elites in the U.S. places them at significant and increasing risk as well. In turn, a growing body of work strongly associates high HIV prevalence in minority urban populations with the processes of coupled physical and social disintegration which have produced the now-common and politically-generated 'hollowed out' pattern of U.S. cities. We conclude that a return to the principles of the Great Reform Movement, which first brought public health and public order to U.S. urban areas, is a necessary, but at present largely unrecognized, component to any successful national program to control AIDS in the United States, and particularly to stem the diffusion of HIV into heterosexual populations outside present diseases epicenters.

Mutational trends in V3 loop protein sequences observed in different genetic lineages of human immunodeficiency virus type 1

Highly variable international human immunodeficiency virus type 1 envelope sequences can be assigned to six major clades, or phylogenetically defined subtypes, designated A through F. These subtypes are approximately equidistant in terms of evolutionary distance measured by nucleotide sequences. This radiation from a common ancestral sequence may have been in step with the spread of the pandemic. In this study, V3 loop protein sequence relationships within these major clades are analyzed to determine how the different lineages might be evolving with respect to this biologically important domain. The V3 loop has been shown to influence viral phenotype and to elicit both humoral and cellular immune responses. To identify patterns in V3 loop amino acid evolution, we cluster the sequences by a phenetic principle which evaluates protein similarities on the basis of amino acid identities and similarities irrespective of evolutionary relationships. When phenetic clustering patterns are superimposed upon phylogenetic subtype classifications, two interesting mutational trends are revealed. First, a set of identical, or highly similar, V3 loop protein sequences can be identified within two otherwise dissimilar genetic subtypes, A and C. Second, the D subtype sequences are found to possess the most radically divergent set of V3 loop sequences. These and other patterns characteristic of the V3 loop reflect the acquisition of specific biological properties during the apparently recent evolution of the human immunodeficiency virus type 1 lineages.