1
|
Westerlinck P, Coucke P, Albert A. Development of a cancer risk model and mobile health application to inform the public about cancer risks and risk factors. Int J Med Inform 2024; 189:105503. [PMID: 38820648 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijmedinf.2024.105503] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/06/2024] [Revised: 05/21/2024] [Accepted: 05/25/2024] [Indexed: 06/02/2024]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To develop and evaluate a mobile health application, the Cancer Risk Calculator (CRC), aimed at improving public health literacy by providing personalized information on cancer risks and preventive measures. MATERIALS AND METHODS The CRC was developed through a comprehensive process involving the identification of necessary content, integration of average cancer risks using data from reliable sources, creation of a novel risk model emphasizing modifiable factors, and the application's development for easy access. The application covers 38 cancer types, 18 subtypes, and approximately 790 risk factors, utilizing data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program and scientific literature. RESULTS CRC offers users personalized risk assessments across a broad range of cancers, emphasizing modifiable risk factors to encourage preventive behaviors. It distinguishes itself by covering more cancer types and risk factors than existing tools, with preliminary user feedback indicating its utility in promoting health literacy and lifestyle changes. DISCUSSION The CRC application stands out as an innovative tool in health informatics, significantly enhancing public understanding of cancer risks. Its development underscores the potential of digital health technologies to bolster preventive healthcare strategies through improved health literacy. CONCLUSION The Cancer Risk Calculator is a pivotal development in mobile health technology, offering comprehensive and personalized insights into cancer risks and prevention. It serves as a valuable resource for public health education, facilitating informed decisions and lifestyle modifications for cancer prevention.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Philippe Westerlinck
- Department of Radiation Oncology, University Hospital Centre (CHU), Liège, Belgium.
| | - Philippe Coucke
- Department of Radiation Oncology, University Hospital Centre (CHU), Liège, Belgium
| | - Adelin Albert
- Department of Biostatistics, University Hospital Centre (CHU), Liège, Belgium
| |
Collapse
|
2
|
Chen J, Feng T, Xu Q, Yu X, Han Y, Yu D, Gong Q, Xue Y, Zhang X. Risk predictive model for the development of hepatocellular carcinoma before initiating long-term antiviral therapy in patients with chronic hepatitis B virus infection. J Med Virol 2024; 96:e29884. [PMID: 39206860 DOI: 10.1002/jmv.29884] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/07/2024] [Revised: 07/28/2024] [Accepted: 08/14/2024] [Indexed: 09/04/2024]
Abstract
It is generally acknowledged that antiviral therapy can reduce the incidence of hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), there remains a subset of patients with chronic HBV infection who develop HCC despite receiving antiviral treatment. This study aimed to develop a model capable of predicting the long-term occurrence of HCC in patients with chronic HBV infection before initiating antiviral therapy. A total of 1450 patients with chronic HBV infection, who received initial antiviral therapy between April 2006 and March 2023 and completed long-term follow-ups, were nonselectively enrolled in this study. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and Cox regression analysis was used to construct the model. The results were validated in an external cohort (n = 210) and compared with existing models. The median follow-up time for all patients was 60 months, with a maximum follow-up time of 144 months, during which, 32 cases of HCC occurred. The nomogram model for predicting HCC based on GGT, AFP, cirrhosis, gender, age, and hepatitis B e antibody (TARGET-HCC) was constructed, demonstrating a good predictive performance. In the derivation cohort, the C-index was 0.906 (95% CI = 0.869-0.944), and in the validation cohort, it was 0.780 (95% CI = 0.673-0.886). Compared with existing models, TARGET-HCC showed promising predictive performance. Additionally, the time-dependent feature importance curve indicated that gender consistently remained the most stable predictor for HCC throughout the initial decade of antiviral therapy. This simple predictive model based on noninvasive clinical features can assist clinicians in identifying high-risk patients with chronic HBV infection for HCC before the initiation of antiviral therapy.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Junjie Chen
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Research Laboratory of Clinical Virology, Ruijin Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China
| | - Tienan Feng
- Clinical Research Institute, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China
| | - Qi Xu
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Research Laboratory of Clinical Virology, Ruijin Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China
| | - Xiaoqi Yu
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Research Laboratory of Clinical Virology, Ruijin Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China
| | - Yue Han
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Research Laboratory of Clinical Virology, Ruijin Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China
| | - Demin Yu
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Research Laboratory of Clinical Virology, Ruijin Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China
| | - Qiming Gong
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Ruijin Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China
| | - Yuan Xue
- Institute of Hepatology, The Third People's Hospital of Changzhou, Changzhou, Jiangsu, China
- Department of Liver Diseases, The Third People's Hospital of Changzhou, Changzhou, Jiangsu, China
| | - Xinxin Zhang
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Research Laboratory of Clinical Virology, Ruijin Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China
- Clinical Research Center, Ruijin Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China
| |
Collapse
|
3
|
Hur MH, Yip TCF, Kim SU, Lee HW, Lee HA, Lee HC, Wong GLH, Wong VWS, Park JY, Ahn SH, Kim BK, Kim HY, Seo YS, Shin H, Park J, Ko Y, Park Y, Lee YB, Yu SJ, Lee SH, Kim YJ, Yoon JH, Lee JH. A machine learning model to predict liver-related outcomes after the functional cure of chronic hepatitis B. J Hepatol 2024:S0168-8278(24)02494-2. [PMID: 39218223 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhep.2024.08.016] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/03/2024] [Revised: 07/29/2024] [Accepted: 08/19/2024] [Indexed: 09/04/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND & AIMS The risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and hepatic decompensation persists after hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) seroclearance. This study aimed to develop and validate a machine learning model to predict the risk of liver-related outcomes (LROs) following HBsAg seroclearance. METHODS A total of 4,787 consecutive patients who achieved HBsAg seroclearance between 2000 and 2022 were enrolled from 6 centers in South Korea and a territory-wide database in Hong Kong, comprising the training (n=944), internal validation (n=1,102), and external validation (n=2,741) cohorts. Three machine learning-based models were developed and compared in each cohort. The primary outcome was the development of any LRO, including HCC, decompensation, and liver-related death. RESULTS During a median follow-up of 55.2 (interquartile range=30.1-92.3) months, 123 LROs were confirmed (1.1%/person-year) in the Korean cohort. A model with the best predictive performance in the training cohort was selected as the final model (designated as PLAN-B-CURE), which was constructed using a gradient boosting algorithm and 7 variables (age, sex, diabetes, alcohol consumption, cirrhosis, albumin, and platelet count). Compared to previous HCC prediction models, PLAN-B-CURE showed significantly superior accuracy in the training cohort (c-index: 0.82 vs. 0.63-0.70, all P<0.001; area under the receiver operating characteristic curve: 0.86 vs. 0.62-0.72, all P<0.01; area under the precision-recall curve: 0.53 vs. 0.13-0.29, all P<0.01). PLAN-B-CURE showed a reliable calibration function (Hosmer-Lemeshow test P>0.05) and these results were reproduced in the internal and external validation cohorts. CONCLUSION This novel machine learning model consisting of 7 variables provides reliable risk prediction of LRO after HBsAg seroclearance that can be used for personalized surveillance.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Moon Haeng Hur
- Department of Internal Medicine and Liver Research Institute, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
| | - Terry Cheuk-Fung Yip
- Medical Data Analytics Centre, Department of Medicine and Therapeutics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
| | - Seung Up Kim
- Department of Internal Medicine, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
| | - Hyun Woong Lee
- Department of Internal Medicine, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
| | - Han Ah Lee
- Department of Internal Medicine, Ewha Womans University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
| | - Hyung-Chul Lee
- Department of Anesthesiology, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
| | - Grace Lai-Hung Wong
- Medical Data Analytics Centre, Department of Medicine and Therapeutics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
| | - Vincent Wai-Sun Wong
- Medical Data Analytics Centre, Department of Medicine and Therapeutics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
| | - Jun Yong Park
- Department of Internal Medicine, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
| | - Sang Hoon Ahn
- Department of Internal Medicine, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
| | - Beom Kyung Kim
- Department of Internal Medicine, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
| | - Hwi Young Kim
- Department of Internal Medicine, Ewha Womans University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
| | - Yeon Seok Seo
- Department of Internal Medicine, Korea University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
| | - Hyunjae Shin
- Department of Internal Medicine and Liver Research Institute, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
| | - Jeayeon Park
- Department of Internal Medicine and Liver Research Institute, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
| | - Yunmi Ko
- Department of Internal Medicine and Liver Research Institute, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
| | - Youngsu Park
- Department of Internal Medicine and Liver Research Institute, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
| | - Yun Bin Lee
- Department of Internal Medicine and Liver Research Institute, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
| | - Su Jong Yu
- Department of Internal Medicine and Liver Research Institute, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
| | - Sang Hyub Lee
- Department of Internal Medicine and Liver Research Institute, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
| | - Yoon Jun Kim
- Department of Internal Medicine and Liver Research Institute, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
| | - Jung-Hwan Yoon
- Department of Internal Medicine and Liver Research Institute, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
| | - Jeong-Hoon Lee
- Department of Internal Medicine and Liver Research Institute, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea.
| |
Collapse
|
4
|
Block PD, Lim JK. Unmet needs in the clinical management of chronic hepatitis B infection. J Formos Med Assoc 2024:S0929-6646(24)00388-7. [PMID: 39155176 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfma.2024.08.020] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/20/2023] [Revised: 08/13/2024] [Accepted: 08/14/2024] [Indexed: 08/20/2024] Open
Abstract
The hepatitis B virus (HBV) remains a global problem despite effective tools to prevent, diagnosis, and control it. Unmet needs are identifiable across its clinical care cascade, underlining the challenges providers face in delivering effective care for patients with chronic hepatitis B. The review herein will focus on three timely clinical issues in HBV. This includes efforts to optimize delivery of perinatal HBV care, improve HBV-related hepatocellular carcinoma risk stratification models, and clarify the role of finite therapy in the HBV treatment algorithm. Important developments within these three topics will be addressed with the goal to motivate further investigation and optimization of these treatment strategies for HBV.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Peter D Block
- Section of Digestive Diseases and Yale Liver Center, Yale School of Medicine, USA
| | - Joseph K Lim
- Section of Digestive Diseases and Yale Liver Center, Yale School of Medicine, USA.
| |
Collapse
|
5
|
Choi WM, Yip TCF, Kim WR, Yee LJ, Brooks-Rooney C, Curteis T, Clark LJ, Jafry Z, Chen CH, Chen CY, Huang YH, Jin YJ, Jun DW, Kim JW, Park NH, Peng CY, Shin HP, Shin JW, Yang YH, Wong GLH, Lim YS. Chronic hepatitis B baseline viral load and on-treatment liver cancer risk: A multinational cohort study of HBeAg-positive patients. Hepatology 2024; 80:428-439. [PMID: 38436992 PMCID: PMC11251501 DOI: 10.1097/hep.0000000000000752] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/16/2023] [Accepted: 12/12/2023] [Indexed: 03/05/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIMS A single-nation study reported that pretreatment HBV viral load is associated with on-treatment risk of HCC in patients who are HBeAg-positive without cirrhosis and with chronic hepatitis B initiating antiviral treatment. We aimed to validate the association between baseline HBV viral load and on-treatment HCC risk in a larger, multinational cohort. APPROACH AND RESULTS Using a multinational cohort from Korea, Hong Kong, and Taiwan involving 7545 adult patients with HBeAg-positive, without cirrhosis and with chronic hepatitis B who started entecavir or tenofovir treatment with baseline HBV viral load ≥5.00 log 10 IU/mL, HCC risk was estimated by baseline viral load. HBV viral load was analyzed as a categorical variable. During continuous antiviral treatment (median, 4.28 y), HCC developed in 200 patients (incidence rate, 0.61 per 100 person-years). Baseline HBV DNA level was independently associated with on-treatment HCC risk in a nonlinear pattern. HCC risk was lowest with the highest baseline viral load (≥8.00 log 10 IU/mL; incidence rate, 0.10 per 100 person-years), but increased sharply as baseline viral load decreased. The adjusted HCC risk was 8.05 times higher (95% CI, 3.34-19.35) with baseline viral load ≥6.00 and <7.00 log 10 IU/mL (incidence rate, 1.38 per 100 person-years) compared with high (≥8.00 log 10 IU/mL) baseline viral load ( p <0.001). CONCLUSIONS In a multinational cohort of adult patients with HBeAg-positive without cirrhosis and with chronic hepatitis B, baseline HBV viral load was significantly associated with HCC risk despite antiviral treatment. Patients with the highest viral load who initiated treatment had the lowest long-term risk of HCC development.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Won-Mook Choi
- Department of Gastroenterology, Liver Center, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
| | - Terry Cheuk-Fung Yip
- Department of Medicine and Therapeutics, Medical Data Analytics Centre, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
| | - W. Ray Kim
- Department of Medicine, Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California, USA
| | | | | | | | | | - Zarena Jafry
- Costello Medical Inc, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Chien-Hung Chen
- Department of Internal Medicine, Division of Hepatogastroenterology, Kaohsiung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital and Chang Gung University College of Medicine, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
| | - Chi-Yi Chen
- Department of Internal Medicine, Division of Hepatogastroenterology, Ditmanson Medical Foundation Chia-Yi Christian Hospital, Chia-Yi, Taiwan
| | - Yi-Hsiang Huang
- Department of Medicine, Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Taipei Veterans General Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan
- Institute of Clinical Medicine, National Yang Ming Chiao Tung University, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Young-Joo Jin
- Department of Internal Medicine, Digestive Disease Center, Inha University Hospital, Inha University School of Medicine, Incheon, Korea
| | - Dae Won Jun
- Department of Internal Medicine, Hanyang University Hospital, Hanyang University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
| | - Jin-Wook Kim
- Department of Medicine, Seoul National University Bundang Hospital, Seongnam, Korea
- Department of Internal Medicine, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
| | - Neung Hwa Park
- Department of Internal Medicine, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Ulsan University Hospital, Ulsan, Korea
- Biomedical Research Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Ulsan University Hospital, Ulsan, Korea
| | - Cheng-Yuan Peng
- Department of Internal Medicine, Center for Digestive Medicine, China Medical University Hospital, Taichung, Taiwan
- School of Medicine, China Medical University, Taichung, Taiwan
| | - Hyun Phil Shin
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Kyung Hee University Hospital at Gangdong, Kyung Hee University School of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
| | - Jung Woo Shin
- Department of Internal Medicine, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Ulsan University Hospital, Ulsan, Korea
| | - Yao-Hsu Yang
- Department of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Chiayi Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Chiayi, Taiwan
- Health Information and Epidemiology Laboratory, Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Chiayi, Taiwan
| | - Grace Lai-Hung Wong
- Department of Medicine and Therapeutics, Medical Data Analytics Centre, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
| | - Young-Suk Lim
- Department of Gastroenterology, Liver Center, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
| |
Collapse
|
6
|
Lani L, Stefanini B, Trevisani F. Surveillance for Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients with Successfully Treated Viral Disease of the Liver: A Systematic Review. Liver Cancer 2024; 13:376-388. [PMID: 39114761 PMCID: PMC11305665 DOI: 10.1159/000535497] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/08/2023] [Accepted: 11/23/2023] [Indexed: 08/10/2024] Open
Abstract
Background Surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has been proven to increase the proportion of tumors detected at early stages and the chance of receiving curative therapies, reducing mortality by about 30%. Summary Current recommendations consist of a semi-annual abdominal ultrasound with or without serum alpha-fetoprotein measurement in patients with cirrhosis and specific subgroups of populations with chronic viral hepatitis. Antiviral therapies, such as nucleot(s)ide analogs that efficiently suppress the replication of hepatitis B virus (HBV) and direct-acting antiviral drugs able to eliminate the hepatitis C virus (HCV) in >90% of patients, have radically changed the outcomes of viral liver disease and decreased, but not eliminated, the risk of HCC in both cirrhotic and non-cirrhotic patients. HCC risk is a key starting point for implementing a cost-effective surveillance and should also guide the decision-making process concerning its modality. As the global number of effectively treated viral patients continues to rise, there is a pressing need to identify those for whom the benefit-to-harm ratio of surveillance is favorable and to determine how to conduct cost-effective screening on such patients. Key Messages This article addresses this topic and attempts to determine which patients should continue HCC surveillance after HBV suppression or HCV eradication, based on cost-effectiveness principles and the fact that HCC risk declines over time. We also formulate a proposal for a surveillance algorithm that switches the use of surveillance for HCC from the "one-size-fits-all" approach to individualized programs based on oncologic risk (precision surveillance).
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Lorenzo Lani
- Unit of Semeiotics, Liver, and Alcohol-related diseases, IRCCS Azienda Ospedaliero-Universitaria di Bologna, Bologna, Italy
| | - Benedetta Stefanini
- Unit of Semeiotics, Liver, and Alcohol-related diseases, IRCCS Azienda Ospedaliero-Universitaria di Bologna, Bologna, Italy
| | - Franco Trevisani
- Unit of Semeiotics, Liver, and Alcohol-related diseases, IRCCS Azienda Ospedaliero-Universitaria di Bologna, Bologna, Italy
| |
Collapse
|
7
|
Jiang D, Qian Y, Gu YJ, Wang R, Yu H, Dong H, Chen DY, Chen Y, Jiang HZ, Tan BB, Peng M, Li YR. Predicting hepatocellular carcinoma: A new non-invasive model based on shear wave elastography. World J Gastroenterol 2024; 30:3166-3178. [PMID: 39006386 PMCID: PMC11238667 DOI: 10.3748/wjg.v30.i25.3166] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/07/2024] [Revised: 05/22/2024] [Accepted: 05/27/2024] [Indexed: 07/01/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Integrating conventional ultrasound features with 2D shear wave elastography (2D-SWE) can potentially enhance preoperative hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) predictions. AIM To develop a 2D-SWE-based predictive model for preoperative identification of HCC. METHODS A retrospective analysis of 884 patients who underwent liver resection and pathology evaluation from February 2021 to August 2023 was conducted at the Oriental Hepatobiliary Surgery Hospital. The patients were divided into the modeling group (n = 720) and the control group (n = 164). The study included conventional ultrasound, 2D-SWE, and preoperative laboratory tests. Multiple logistic regression was used to identify independent predictive factors for malignant liver lesions, which were then depicted as nomograms. RESULTS In the modeling group analysis, maximal elasticity (Emax) of tumors and their peripheries, platelet count, cirrhosis, and blood flow were independent risk indicators for malignancies. These factors yielded an area under the curve of 0.77 (95% confidence interval: 0.73-0.81) with 84% sensitivity and 61% specificity. The model demonstrated good calibration in both the construction and validation cohorts, as shown by the calibration graph and Hosmer-Lemeshow test (P = 0.683 and P = 0.658, respectively). Additionally, the mean elasticity (Emean) of the tumor periphery was identified as a risk factor for microvascular invasion (MVI) in malignant liver tumors (P = 0.003). Patients receiving antiviral treatment differed significantly in platelet count (P = 0.002), Emax of tumors (P = 0.033), Emean of tumors (P = 0.042), Emax at tumor periphery (P < 0.001), and Emean at tumor periphery (P = 0.003). CONCLUSION 2D-SWE's hardness value serves as a valuable marker for enhancing the preoperative diagnosis of malignant liver lesions, correlating significantly with MVI and antiviral treatment efficacy.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Dong Jiang
- Department of Ultrasound, Eastern Hepatobiliary Surgery Hospital, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Naval Medical University, Shanghai 200433, China
| | - Yi Qian
- Department of Ultrasound, Eastern Hepatobiliary Surgery Hospital, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Naval Medical University, Shanghai 200433, China
| | - Yi-Jun Gu
- Department of Ultrasound, Eastern Hepatobiliary Surgery Hospital, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Naval Medical University, Shanghai 200433, China
| | - Ru Wang
- Department of Ultrasound, Eastern Hepatobiliary Surgery Hospital, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Naval Medical University, Shanghai 200433, China
| | - Hua Yu
- Department of Pathology, Shanghai Eastern Hepatobiliary Surgery Hospital, Third Affiliated Hospital of Naval Medical University, Shanghai 200433, China
| | - Hui Dong
- Department of Pathology, Shanghai Eastern Hepatobiliary Surgery Hospital, Third Affiliated Hospital of Naval Medical University, Shanghai 200433, China
| | - Dong-Yu Chen
- Department of Ultrasound, Eastern Hepatobiliary Surgery Hospital, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Naval Medical University, Shanghai 200433, China
| | - Yan Chen
- Department of Ultrasound, Eastern Hepatobiliary Surgery Hospital, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Naval Medical University, Shanghai 200433, China
| | - Hao-Zheng Jiang
- Department of College of Art and Science, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, OH 44106, United States
| | - Bi-Bo Tan
- Department of Ultrasound, Eastern Hepatobiliary Surgery Hospital, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Naval Medical University, Shanghai 200433, China
| | - Min Peng
- Ultrasound Diagnosis, PLA Naval Medical Center, Shanghai 200437, China
| | - Yi-Ran Li
- Department of Ultrasound, Eastern Hepatobiliary Surgery Hospital, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Naval Medical University, Shanghai 200433, China
| |
Collapse
|
8
|
Shin H, Choi WM, Kim SU, Ko Y, Park Y, Park J, Hur MH, Park MK, Lee YB, Kim YJ, Yoon JH, Lee JH, Zoulim F. Lack of association between early on-treatment HBeAg seroclearance and development of hepatocellular carcinoma or decompensated cirrhosis. JHEP Rep 2024; 6:101089. [PMID: 38974365 PMCID: PMC11225842 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhepr.2024.101089] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/12/2023] [Revised: 03/26/2024] [Accepted: 04/02/2024] [Indexed: 07/09/2024] Open
Abstract
Background & Aims The association between hepatitis B envelope antigen (HBeAg) seroclearance during long-term nucleos(t)ide analogue (NA) treatment and the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) remains unclear. Here, we aimed to investigate the association of HBeAg seroclearance during potent NA treatment with the development of HCC and decompensated cirrhosis. Methods Using a multicenter historical cohort including 2,392 non-cirrhotic adult patients with HBeAg-positive CHB who initiated NA treatment with tenofovir or entecavir, the risk of HCC and decompensated cirrhosis was compared between patients who achieved HBeAg seroclearance within 36 months of NA treatment (the HBeAg-loss group) and those who did not (the HBeAg-maintained group), using inverse probability of treatment weighting. Results Over a median of 6.6 years of NA treatment, 1,077 patients achieved HBeAg seroclearance (HBeAg loss rate = 6.0 per 100 person-years), 64 patients developed HCC (HCC incidence rate = 0.39 per 100 person-years), and 46 patients developed decompensated cirrhosis (decompensation incidence rate = 0.28 per 100 person-years). The HBeAg-loss and HBeAg-maintained groups had a similar risk of developing HCC (hazard ratio 0.89; 95% CI 0.47-1.68; p = 0.72) and decompensated cirrhosis (hazard ratio 0.98; 95% CI 0.48-1.81; p = 0.91). Compared with delayed HBeAg seroclearance beyond 10 years of NA treatment, the risk of HCC was comparable in those who achieved earlier HBeAg seroclearance at any time point within 10 years, regardless of baseline age and fibrotic burden. Conclusions Early HBeAg seroclearance during NA treatment was not associated with a reduced risk of development of HCC or decompensated cirrhosis in non-cirrhotic HBeAg-positive patients with CHB. Impact and implications The association between hepatitis B envelope antigen (HBeAg) seroclearance during long-term nucleos(t)ide analogue treatment and the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with chronic hepatitis B remains unclear. Our findings indicate that early on-treatment HBeAg seroclearance within 3 years was not associated with the development of hepatocellular carcinoma or decompensated cirrhosis. Achieving HBeAg seroclearance may not be an appropriate surrogate endpoint for preventing the development of liver-related outcomes in non-cirrhotic patients with HBeAg-positive chronic hepatitis B treated with nucleos(t)ide analogues.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Hyunjae Shin
- Department of Internal Medicine and Liver Research Institute, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Won-Mook Choi
- Department of Gastroenterology, Liver Center, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Seung Up Kim
- Department of Internal Medicine, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea; Yonsei Liver Center, Severance Hospital, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Yunmi Ko
- Department of Internal Medicine and Liver Research Institute, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Youngsu Park
- Department of Internal Medicine and Liver Research Institute, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Jeayeon Park
- Department of Internal Medicine and Liver Research Institute, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Moon Haeng Hur
- Department of Internal Medicine and Liver Research Institute, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Min Kyung Park
- Department of Internal Medicine and Liver Research Institute, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Yun Bin Lee
- Department of Internal Medicine and Liver Research Institute, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Yoon Jun Kim
- Department of Internal Medicine and Liver Research Institute, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Jung-Hwan Yoon
- Department of Internal Medicine and Liver Research Institute, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Jeong-Hoon Lee
- Department of Internal Medicine and Liver Research Institute, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Fabien Zoulim
- INSERM Unit 1052 - Cancer Research Center of Lyon, Hospices Civils de Lyon, Lyon University, Lyon, France
| |
Collapse
|
9
|
Yu H, Huang Y, Li M, Jiang H, Yang B, Xi X, Smayi A, Wu B, Yang Y. Prognostic significance of dynamic changes in liver stiffness measurement in patients with chronic hepatitis B and compensated advanced chronic liver disease. J Gastroenterol Hepatol 2024. [PMID: 38946401 DOI: 10.1111/jgh.16673] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/23/2024] [Revised: 06/07/2024] [Accepted: 06/16/2024] [Indexed: 07/02/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIM Liver stiffness measurements (LSMs) are promising for monitoring disease progression or regression. We assessed the prognostic significance of dynamic changes in LSM over time on liver-related events (LREs) and death in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) and compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD). METHODS This retrospective study included 1272 patients with CHB and cACLD who underwent at least two measurements, including LSM and fibrosis score based on four factors (FIB-4). ΔLSM was defined as [(follow-up LSM - baseline LSM)/baseline LSM × 100]. We recorded LREs and all-cause mortality during a median follow-up time of 46 months. Hazard ratios (HRs) and confidence intervals (CIs) for outcomes were calculated using Cox regression. RESULTS Baseline FIB-4, baseline LSM, ΔFIB-4, ΔLSM, and ΔLSM/year were independently and simultaneously associated with LREs (adjusted HR, 1.04, 95% CI, 1.00-1.07; 1.02, 95% CI, 1.01-1.03; 1.06, 95% CI, 1.03-1.09; 1.96, 95% CI, 1.63-2.35, 1.02, 95% CI, 1.01-1.04, respectively). The baseline LSM combined with the ΔLSM achieved the highest Harrell's C (0.751), integrated AUC (0.776), and time-dependent AUC (0.737) for LREs. Using baseline LSM and ΔLSM, we proposed a risk stratification method to improve clinical applications. The risk proposed stratification based on LSM performed well in terms of prognosis: low risk (n = 390; reference), intermediate risk (n = 446; HR = 3.38), high risk (n = 272; HR = 5.64), and extremely high risk (n = 164; HR = 11.11). CONCLUSIONS Baseline and repeated noninvasive tests measurement allow risk stratification of patients with CHB and cACLD. Combining baseline and dynamic changes in the LSM improves prognostic prediction.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Hongsheng Yu
- Department of Gastroenterology, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-Sen University, No. 600 Tianhe Road, Guangzhou, 510630, China
- Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Liver Disease Research, Guangzhou, China
| | - Yinan Huang
- Department of Gastroenterology, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-Sen University, No. 600 Tianhe Road, Guangzhou, 510630, China
- Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Liver Disease Research, Guangzhou, China
| | - Mingkai Li
- Department of Gastroenterology, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-Sen University, No. 600 Tianhe Road, Guangzhou, 510630, China
- Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Liver Disease Research, Guangzhou, China
| | - Hao Jiang
- Department of Gastroenterology, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-Sen University, No. 600 Tianhe Road, Guangzhou, 510630, China
- Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Liver Disease Research, Guangzhou, China
| | - Bilan Yang
- Department of Gastrointestinal Endoscopy Center, The Eighth Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, 518033, Shenzhen, China
| | - Xiaoli Xi
- Department of Gastroenterology, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-Sen University, No. 600 Tianhe Road, Guangzhou, 510630, China
- Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Liver Disease Research, Guangzhou, China
| | - Abdukyamu Smayi
- Department of Gastroenterology, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-Sen University, No. 600 Tianhe Road, Guangzhou, 510630, China
- Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Liver Disease Research, Guangzhou, China
| | - Bin Wu
- Department of Gastroenterology, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-Sen University, No. 600 Tianhe Road, Guangzhou, 510630, China
- Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Liver Disease Research, Guangzhou, China
| | - Yidong Yang
- Department of Gastroenterology, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-Sen University, No. 600 Tianhe Road, Guangzhou, 510630, China
- Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Liver Disease Research, Guangzhou, China
| |
Collapse
|
10
|
Chaiwiriyawong S, Assawasuwannakit S, Feuangwattana P, Sripongpun P, Chamroonkul N, Piratvisuth T, Kaewdech A. Clinical Utility of the aMAP Score for Predicting Hepatocellular Carcinoma Development in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis B. Diagnostics (Basel) 2024; 14:1325. [PMID: 39001216 PMCID: PMC11240693 DOI: 10.3390/diagnostics14131325] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/29/2024] [Revised: 06/16/2024] [Accepted: 06/20/2024] [Indexed: 07/16/2024] Open
Abstract
This study aimed to evaluate the efficacy of the aMAP score and compare it with other risk scores for predicting hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development in Thai patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). We retrospectively analyzed patients with CHB between 1 January 2008 and 31 December 2019. Data on demographics, clinical parameters, cirrhosis status, HCC imaging, and alpha fetoprotein surveillance were collected to calculate the aMAP score (0-100) based on age, sex, albumin-bilirubin level, and platelet count. Of the 1060 patients analyzed, 789 were eligible, of whom 51 developed HCC. The cumulative HCC incidences in the low-, moderate-, and high-risk groups at 3, 5, and 10 years were significantly different (log-rank, p < 0.0001). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) of the aMAP scores for predicting HCC at 3, 5, and 10 years were 0.748, 0.777, and 0.784, respectively. Among the risk scores, the CU-HCC score had the highest AUROCs (0.823) for predicting 5-year HCC development. The aMAP score is a valuable tool for predicting HCC risk in Thai patients with CHB and can enhance surveillance strategies. However, its performance is inferior to that of the CU-HCC score, suggesting the need for new predictive tools for HCC surveillance.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Supakorn Chaiwiriyawong
- Division of Internal Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Prince of Songkla University, Songkhla 90110, Thailand
| | - Suraphon Assawasuwannakit
- Department of Medicine, Panyananthaphikkhu Chonprathan Medical Center, Srinakharinwirot University, Nonthaburi 11120, Thailand
| | - Poorikorn Feuangwattana
- Gastroenterology and Hepatology Unit, Division of Internal Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Prince of Songkla University, Songkhla 90110, Thailand
| | - Pimsiri Sripongpun
- Gastroenterology and Hepatology Unit, Division of Internal Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Prince of Songkla University, Songkhla 90110, Thailand
| | - Naichaya Chamroonkul
- Gastroenterology and Hepatology Unit, Division of Internal Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Prince of Songkla University, Songkhla 90110, Thailand
| | - Teerha Piratvisuth
- NKC Institute of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Songklanagarind Hospital, Prince of Songkla University, Songkhla 90110, Thailand
| | - Apichat Kaewdech
- Gastroenterology and Hepatology Unit, Division of Internal Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Prince of Songkla University, Songkhla 90110, Thailand
| |
Collapse
|
11
|
Tourkochristou E, Kalafateli M, Triantos C, Aggeletopoulou I. Evaluation of PAGE-B Score for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Development in Chronic Hepatitis B Patients: Reliability, Validity, and Responsiveness. Biomedicines 2024; 12:1260. [PMID: 38927467 PMCID: PMC11200639 DOI: 10.3390/biomedicines12061260] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/14/2024] [Revised: 05/29/2024] [Accepted: 06/02/2024] [Indexed: 06/28/2024] Open
Abstract
Chronic hepatitis B (CHB) constitutes a major global public health issue, affecting millions of individuals. Despite the implementation of robust vaccination programs, the hepatitis B virus (HBV) significantly influences morbidity and mortality rates. CHB emerges as one of the leading causes of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), introducing a major challenge in the effective management of CHB patients. Therefore, it is of utmost clinical importance to diligently monitor individuals with CHB who are at high risk of HCC development. While various prognostic scores have been developed for surveillance and screening purposes, their accuracy in predicting HCC risk may be limited, particularly in patients under treatment with nucleos(t)ide analogues. The PAGE-B model, incorporating age, gender, and platelet count, has exhibited remarkable accuracy, validity, and reliability in predicting HCC occurrence among CHB patients receiving HBV treatment. Its predictive performance stands out, whether considered independently or in comparison to alternative HCC risk scoring systems. Furthermore, the introduction of targeted adjustments to the calculation of the PAGE-B score might have the potential to further improve its predictive accuracy. This review aims to evaluate the efficacy of the PAGE-B score as a dependable tool for accurate prediction of the development of HCC in CHB patients. The evidence discussed aims to provide valuable insights for guiding recommendations on HCC surveillance within this specific population.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Evanthia Tourkochristou
- Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Internal Medicine, University Hospital of Patras, 26504 Patras, Greece; (E.T.); (C.T.)
| | - Maria Kalafateli
- Department of Gastroenterology, General Hospital of Patras, 26332 Patras, Greece;
| | - Christos Triantos
- Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Internal Medicine, University Hospital of Patras, 26504 Patras, Greece; (E.T.); (C.T.)
| | - Ioanna Aggeletopoulou
- Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Internal Medicine, University Hospital of Patras, 26504 Patras, Greece; (E.T.); (C.T.)
| |
Collapse
|
12
|
Jiang S, Guo S, Huang Y, Xu J, Li Y, Zeng Y, Guo Y, Ouyang L, Zhu C, Zhao W, Zhang Q, Guo Q, Xin H, Xie Q. Interim analysis of the PARADISE study: Benefits of add-on peginterferon-α in NA-treated patients with CHB. Antiviral Res 2024; 226:105892. [PMID: 38663455 DOI: 10.1016/j.antiviral.2024.105892] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/09/2024] [Revised: 04/13/2024] [Accepted: 04/20/2024] [Indexed: 04/29/2024]
Abstract
This study aimed to investigate whether peginterferon-α (IFN) add-on nucleos(t)ide analogs(NAs) can further reduce hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC) risk compared with NAs monotherapy in NA-treated patients with chronic hepatitis B(CHB). In this multi-center randomized controlled trial "PARADISE study" (NCT05671315), CHB patients with intermediate to high risk of HCC after more than 24-week NAs pretreatment were recruited, randomized to two groups at a ratio of 1:2 and followed up for 240 weeks. NAs group maintained NAs monotherapy, while IFN + NAs group received IFN add-on NAs therapy for 48 weeks, then switched to NAs monotherapy. Totally, 196 patients were included in interim analysis (NAs group 68, IFN + NAs group 128). The 96-week cumulative HCC incidence was lower in IFN + NAs group than NAs group (0% vs. 4.5%, p < 0.05). Compared with NAs group, IFN + NAs group had significantly higher rates of HBsAg loss at week 48 and 96 (22.7% vs. 0%; 16.7% vs. 0%, both p < 0.05). A new scoring system was established to predict HBsAg decline >2log10 IU/ml, HBsAg <10 IU/ml or HBsAg loss at the end of 48-week IFN treatment. The area under ROC curve was 0.914, 0.922 or 0.905 in the original cohort (n = 128) and 0.896, 0.896 or 0.864 in the external validation cohort (n = 162) for the aforementioned three outcomes, respectively. IFN add-on NAs therapy may suggest the dual benefits of reducing HCC development and facilitating HBsAg loss among NA-treated CHB patients with intermediate to high risk of HCC. The new scoring system helps to make the most of IFN treatment for a higher cost-effectiveness in healthcare.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Shaowen Jiang
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Ruijin Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China
| | - Simin Guo
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Ruijin Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China
| | - Yan Huang
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Ruijin Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China
| | - Jie Xu
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Shanghai Ninth People's Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China
| | - Yi Li
- Department of Infectious Disease, Anhui Provincial Hospital, Hefei, Anhui, China
| | - Yilan Zeng
- Department of Hepatology, Chengdu Public Health Clinical Medical Center, Chengdu, Sichuan, China
| | - Yuan Guo
- Department of Liver Disease Center, The Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University, Qingdao, Shandong, China
| | - Lijuan Ouyang
- Department of Hepatology, Xiamen Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Xiamen, Fujian, China
| | - Chuanwu Zhu
- Department of Infectious Diseases, The Affiliated Infectious Diseases Hospital of Soochow University, Suzhou, Jiangsu, China
| | - Weifeng Zhao
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Xinxiang Medical University Third Hospital, Xinxiang, Henan, China
| | - Qin Zhang
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Phase I Clinical Trial Unit, Tongren Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China
| | - Qing Guo
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Ruijin Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China.
| | - Haiguang Xin
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Ruijin Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China.
| | - Qing Xie
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Ruijin Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China.
| |
Collapse
|
13
|
Zheng T, Qu Y, Chen J, Yang J, Yan H, Jiang H, Song B. Noninvasive diagnosis of liver cirrhosis: qualitative and quantitative imaging biomarkers. Abdom Radiol (NY) 2024; 49:2098-2115. [PMID: 38372765 DOI: 10.1007/s00261-024-04225-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/30/2023] [Revised: 01/26/2024] [Accepted: 01/29/2024] [Indexed: 02/20/2024]
Abstract
A diagnosis of cirrhosis initiates a shift in the management of chronic liver disease and affects the diagnostic workflow and treatment decision of primary liver cancer. Liver biopsy remains the gold standard for cirrhosis diagnosis, but it is invasive and susceptible to sampling bias and observer variability. Various qualitative and quantitative imaging biomarkers based on ultrasound, CT and MRI have been proposed for noninvasive diagnosis of cirrhosis. Qualitative imaging features are easy to apply but have moderate diagnostic sensitivity. Elastography techniques allow quantitative assessment of liver stiffness and are highly accurate for cirrhosis diagnosis. Ultrasound elastography are widely used in clinical practice, while MR elastography has narrower availability. Although not applicable in clinical practice yet, other quantitative imaging features, including liver surface nodularity, linear and volumetric measurement, extracellular volume fraction, liver enhancement on hepatobiliary phase, and parameters derived from diffusion-weighted imaging, can provide additional information of liver morphology, perfusion, and function, thus may increase diagnosis performance. The introduction of radiomics and deep learning has further improved diagnostic accuracy while reducing subjectivity. Several imaging features may also help to assess liver function and outcomes in patients with cirrhosis. In this review, we summarize the qualitative and quantitative imaging biomarkers for noninvasive cirrhosis diagnosis, and the assessment of liver function and outcomes, and discuss the challenges and future directions in this field.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Tianying Zheng
- Department of Radiology, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, No. 37 Guoxue Alley, Chengdu, Sichuan, 610041, China
- Functional and Molecular Imaging Key Laboratory of Sichuan, Chengdu, Sichuan, China
| | - Yali Qu
- Department of Radiology, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, No. 37 Guoxue Alley, Chengdu, Sichuan, 610041, China
- Functional and Molecular Imaging Key Laboratory of Sichuan, Chengdu, Sichuan, China
| | - Jie Chen
- Department of Radiology, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, No. 37 Guoxue Alley, Chengdu, Sichuan, 610041, China
- Functional and Molecular Imaging Key Laboratory of Sichuan, Chengdu, Sichuan, China
| | - Jie Yang
- Department of Medical Ultrasound, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan, China
| | - Hualin Yan
- Department of Medical Ultrasound, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan, China
| | - Hanyu Jiang
- Department of Radiology, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, No. 37 Guoxue Alley, Chengdu, Sichuan, 610041, China
- Functional and Molecular Imaging Key Laboratory of Sichuan, Chengdu, Sichuan, China
| | - Bin Song
- Department of Radiology, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, No. 37 Guoxue Alley, Chengdu, Sichuan, 610041, China.
- Functional and Molecular Imaging Key Laboratory of Sichuan, Chengdu, Sichuan, China.
- Department of Radiology, Sanya People's Hospital, Sanya, Hainan, China.
| |
Collapse
|
14
|
Fan H, Lei S, Zhao Z, Huang Y, Wang H, Liu X, Li X, Xu M, Zhang W, Sun K, Xing H, Mei Y, Huang J, Zhu C, Zhang K, Zong Y, Shen X, Xie Q, Liu C. Beneficial Effects of Traditional Chinese Medicine Fuzheng Huayu on the Occurrence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients with Compensated Chronic Hepatitis B Cirrhosis Receiving Entecavir: A Multicenter Retrospective Cohort Study. J Clin Transl Hepatol 2024; 12:505-515. [PMID: 38779515 PMCID: PMC11106348 DOI: 10.14218/jcth.2023.00521] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/21/2023] [Revised: 02/26/2024] [Accepted: 03/07/2024] [Indexed: 05/25/2024] Open
Abstract
Background and Aims The application of antifibrotic drugs to treat patients with chronic liver diseases who are receiving antiviral therapies for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has not been established. Here, we aimed to assess the impact of the Traditional Chinese Medicine Fuzheng Huayu (FZHY) on the occurrence of HCC in patients with hepatitis B virus-related compensated cirrhosis receiving the antiviral drug entecavir (ETV). Methods A multicenter retrospective cohort study was performed. Compensated liver cirrhosis patients were divided into the ETV+FZHY group or the ETV group according to treatment. The cumulative incidence of HCC was analyzed using Kaplan-Meier and log-rank tests. Propensity score matching was used for confounding factors. Stratified analysis and Cox regression were used to determine the effects of FZHY on the occurrence of HCC and liver function decompensation. Results Out of 910 chronic hepatitis B patients, 458 were in the ETV+FZHY group and 452 were in the ETV group. After propensity score matching, the 5-year cumulative incidence of HCC was 9.8% in the ETV+FZHY group and 21.8% in the ETV group (p<0.01). The adjusted hazard ratio for HCC was 0.216 (0.108, 0.432) when FZHY treatment was >36 months. Age, diabetes, alanine aminotransferase, γ-glutamyl transpeptidase, albumin, hepatitis B e-antigen, and fibrosis 4 score were associated with the occurrence of HCC. FZHY decreased the risk of HCC in patients aged >45 years with a hepatitis B virus DNA level of ≥2,000 IU/l. Conclusion Adjunctive FZHY treatment reduced HCC occurrence in patients with hepatitis B virus cirrhosis who were treated with ETV, possibly due to the antifibrotic properties of FZHY.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Haina Fan
- Institute of Liver Diseases, Shanghai Key Laboratory of Traditional Chinese Clinical Medicine, Key Laboratory of Liver and Kidney Diseases (Ministry of Education), Shuguang Hospital Affiliated to Shanghai University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Shanghai, China
| | - Shujuan Lei
- Institute of Liver Diseases, Shanghai Key Laboratory of Traditional Chinese Clinical Medicine, Key Laboratory of Liver and Kidney Diseases (Ministry of Education), Shuguang Hospital Affiliated to Shanghai University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Shanghai, China
| | - Zhimin Zhao
- Institute of Liver Diseases, Shanghai Key Laboratory of Traditional Chinese Clinical Medicine, Key Laboratory of Liver and Kidney Diseases (Ministry of Education), Shuguang Hospital Affiliated to Shanghai University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Shanghai, China
| | - Yan Huang
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Ruijin Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China
| | - Hui Wang
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Ruijin Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China
| | - Xudong Liu
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Ruikang Hospital Affiliated to Guangxi University of Chinese Medicine, Nanning, Guangxi, China
| | - Xiaodong Li
- Institute of Liver Diseases, Hubei Provincial Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Wuhan, Hubei, China
| | - Min Xu
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Huaian Fourth People’s Hospital, Huai’an, Jiangsu, China
| | - Wei Zhang
- Institute of Liver Diseases, Shijiazhuang Fifth Hospital, Shijiazhuang, Hebei, China
| | - Kewei Sun
- Department of Liver Diseases, The First Hospital of Hunan University of Chinese Medicine, Changsha, Hunan, China
| | - Huichun Xing
- Center of Hepatology, Capital Medical University Affiliated Beijing Ditan Hospital, Beijing, China
| | - Yang Mei
- Department of Hepatology, The Fifth People’s Hospital of Anyang, Anyang, Henan, China
| | - Jiaquan Huang
- Department and Institute of Infectious Disease, Tongji Hospital of Tongji Medical College of Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, Hubei, China
| | - Chuanwu Zhu
- Department of Hepatology, The Fifth People’s Hospital of Suzhou, Suzhou, Jiangsu, China
| | - Kejun Zhang
- Department of Gastroenterology, The First People’s Hospital of Jingmen, Jingmen, Hubei, China
| | - Yali Zong
- Department of Integrated Traditional and Western Medicine, The Ninth Hospital of Nanchang, Nanchang, Jiangxi, China
| | - Xizhong Shen
- Department of Gastroenterology, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Qing Xie
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Ruijin Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China
| | - Chenghai Liu
- Institute of Liver Diseases, Shanghai Key Laboratory of Traditional Chinese Clinical Medicine, Key Laboratory of Liver and Kidney Diseases (Ministry of Education), Shuguang Hospital Affiliated to Shanghai University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Shanghai, China
| |
Collapse
|
15
|
Lim YS. Treatment decisions based on HBV DNA. J Viral Hepat 2024. [PMID: 38785204 DOI: 10.1111/jvh.13956] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/04/2024] [Accepted: 05/09/2024] [Indexed: 05/25/2024]
Abstract
The most common cause of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) worldwide is chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection (CHB). Long-term suppression of HBV replication by antiviral treatment reduces the risk of HCC and mortality. Nonetheless, only 2.2% of CHB patients globally received the treatment in 2019. Current international CHB guidelines recommend antiviral treatment only in subsets of patients with clear evidence of liver damage as evidenced by elevation of alanine aminotransferase (ALT). This review aims to provide existing evidence that the risk of HCC is significantly associated with serum levels of HBV DNA, and the association is non-linear parabolic, in both untreated and treated CHB patients, regardless of HBeAg status or ALT levels. Therefore, the decision for the antiviral treatment should be based on serum HBV DNA levels and age, rather than ALT levels or liver biopsy, to reduce or prevent the risk of HCC in CHB patients. The potential impact and cost-effectiveness data on early antiviral treatment initiation were also collated.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Young-Suk Lim
- Department of Gastroenterology, Liver Center, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| |
Collapse
|
16
|
Lee HW, Yip TCF, Wong VWS, Lim YS, Chan HLY, Ahn SH, Wong GLH, Choi J. CAMP-B score predicts the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with chronic hepatitis B after HBsAg seroclearance. Aliment Pharmacol Ther 2024; 59:1223-1235. [PMID: 38425096 DOI: 10.1111/apt.17933] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/10/2023] [Revised: 01/15/2024] [Accepted: 02/20/2024] [Indexed: 03/02/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) persists after hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) seroclearance in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). AIMS To identify risk factors and construct a predictive model for HCC development. METHODS We retrospectively analysed patients with CHB with HBsAg seroclearance. Primary outcome was HCC development. Factors identified from a multivariate Cox model in the training cohort, consisting of 3476 patients from two Korean hospitals, were used to construct the prediction model. External validation was performed using data from 5255 patients in Hong Kong. RESULTS In the training cohort, HCC occurred in 102 patients during 24,019 person-years of observation (0.43%/year). Risk scores were assigned to cirrhosis (C:3), age ≥50 years (A:2), male sex (M:3) and platelet count <150,000/mm3 (P:1); all were independently associated with an increased risk of HCC in multivariate analysis The time-dependent area under receiver operating characteristic curves for 5, 10 and 15 years in the training and validation cohorts were 0.782, 0.817 and 0.825 and 0.785, 0.771 and 0.796, respectively. In the validation cohort, 85 patients developed HCC (0.24%/year). The corresponding incidence of HCC in the low-, intermediate- and high-risk groups were 0.07%, 0.37% and 0.90%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS The CAMP-B score (cirrhosis, age ≥50 years, male sex and platelet count <150,000/mm3/L) was significantly associated with HCC development after HBsAg seroclearance. CAMP-B score can be easily implemented in real-world clinical practice and helps stratify HCC risk in patients with CHB following HBsAg seroclearance.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Hye Won Lee
- Department of Internal Medicine, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Terry Cheuk-Fung Yip
- Department of Medicine and Therapeutics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
- Medical Data Analytics Centre (MDAC), The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
- Institute of Digestive Disease, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
| | - Vincent Wai-Sun Wong
- Department of Medicine and Therapeutics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
- Medical Data Analytics Centre (MDAC), The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
- Institute of Digestive Disease, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
| | - Young-Suk Lim
- Department of Gastroenterology, Liver Center, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | | | - Sang Hoon Ahn
- Department of Internal Medicine, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Grace Lai-Hung Wong
- Department of Medicine and Therapeutics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
- Medical Data Analytics Centre (MDAC), The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
- Institute of Digestive Disease, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
| | - Jonggi Choi
- Department of Gastroenterology, Liver Center, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| |
Collapse
|
17
|
Xu S, Qiu L, Xu L, Liu Y, Zhang J. Development and validation of a nomogram for assessing hepatocellular carcinoma risk after SVR in hepatitis C patients with advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis. Infect Agent Cancer 2024; 19:17. [PMID: 38664813 PMCID: PMC11046761 DOI: 10.1186/s13027-024-00578-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/06/2023] [Accepted: 04/11/2024] [Indexed: 04/28/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Hepatitis C patients with advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis are at high risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), even after sustained virological response (SVR). Clinical recommendations impose a significant burden on patients by recommending lifelong screening for HCC every six months. The goals of this study were to develop a nomogram that accurately stratifies risk of HCC and improve the screening approach that is currently in use. METHOD Risk factors for HCC were identified using univariate and multivariate analyses in this prospective study. We developed and validated a nomogram for assessing hepatocellular carcinoma risk after SVR in patients with advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis. RESULTS During the median follow-up period of 61.00 (57.00-66.00) months in the derivation cohort, 37 patients (9.61%) developed HCC. Older age (HR = 1.08, 95% CI 1.02-1.14, p = 0.009), male gender (HR = 2.38, 95% CI 1.10-5.13, p = 0.027), low serum albumin levels (HR = 0.92, 95% CI 0.86-1.00, p = 0.037), and high liver stiffness measurement (LSM) (HR = 1.03, 95% CI 1.01-1.06, p = 0.001) were found to be independent predictors of HCC development. Harrell's C-index for the derivation cohort was 0.81. The nomogram's 3-, 5- and 7-years time-dependent AUROCSs were 0.84 (95% CI 0.80-0.88), 0.83 (95% CI 0.79-0.87), and 0.81 (95% CI 0.77-0.85), respectively (all p > 0.05). According to the nomogram, patients are categorized as having low, intermediate, or high risk. The annual incidence rates of HCC in the three groups were 0.18%, 1.29%, and 4.45%, respectively (all p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS Older age, male gender, low serum albumin levels, and high LSM were risk factors for HCC after SVR in hepatitis C patients with advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis. We used these risk factors to establish a nomogram. The nomogram can identify a suitable screening plan by classifying hepatitis C patients according to their risk of HCC.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Shanshan Xu
- The Third Unit, Department of Hepatology, Beijing Youan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, 100069, People's Republic of China
| | - Lixia Qiu
- The Third Unit, Department of Hepatology, Beijing Youan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, 100069, People's Republic of China
| | - Liang Xu
- Department of Hepatology, Tianjin Second People's Hospital, Tianjin Research Institute of Liver Diseases, Tianjin, 300192, People's Republic of China
| | - Yali Liu
- The Third Unit, Department of Hepatology, Beijing Youan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, 100069, People's Republic of China
| | - Jing Zhang
- The Third Unit, Department of Hepatology, Beijing Youan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, 100069, People's Republic of China.
| |
Collapse
|
18
|
Choi WM, Kim GA, Choi J, Choi GH, Lee YB, Sinn DH, Lim YS. Non-linear association of baseline viral load with on-treatment hepatocellular carcinoma risk in chronic hepatitis B. Gut 2024; 73:649-658. [PMID: 37813567 DOI: 10.1136/gutjnl-2023-330225] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/05/2023] [Accepted: 09/22/2023] [Indexed: 10/16/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE The association between baseline pretreatment serum HBV DNA levels and on-treatment hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk remains controversial in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). We aimed to investigate the association between baseline HBV viral load and on-treatment HCC risk in CHB patients without cirrhosis. DESIGN Using a multicentre historical cohort study including 4693 hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg)-negative and HBeAg-positive, adult CHB patients without cirrhosis who initiated antiviral treatment, HCC risk was estimated by baseline HBV viral load as a categorical variable. RESULTS During a median of 7.6 years of antiviral treatment, 193 patients developed HCC (0.53 per 100 person- years). Baseline HBV DNA level was independently associated with on-treatment HCC risk in a non-linear, parabolic pattern. Patients with moderate baseline viral loads (5.00-7.99 log10 IU/mL) exhibited the highest HCC risk (HR, 2.60; p<0.001), followed by those with low viral loads (3.30-4.99 log10 IU/mL; HR, 1.66; p=0.11). Patients with high viral loads (≥8.00 log10 IU/mL) presented the lowest HCC risk. Particularly, patients with baseline HBV DNA levels 6.00-6.99 log10 IU/mL had the highest on-treatment HCC risk (HR, 3.36; p<0.001) compared with those with baseline HBV DNA levels≥8.00 log10 IU/mL. These findings were more prominent among HBeAg-positive patients, younger patients, or those with less advanced hepatic fibrosis. CONCLUSION Patients with moderate baseline viral load, particularly around 6 log10 IU/mL, demonstrated the highest on-treatment HCC risk, despite long-term antiviral treatment. Early initiation of antiviral treatment, tailored to viral load, should be considered to minimise HCC risk in adult CHB patients without cirrhosis.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Won-Mook Choi
- Department of Gastroenterology, Liver Center, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Gi-Ae Kim
- Department of Internal Medicine, Kyung Hee University School of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Jonggi Choi
- Department of Gastroenterology, Liver Center, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Gwang Hyeon Choi
- Department of Internal Medicine, Seoul National University Bundang Hospital, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seongnam-si, South Korea
| | - Yun Bin Lee
- Department of Internal Medicine and Liver Research Institute, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Dong Hyun Sinn
- Department of Medicine, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Young-Suk Lim
- Department of Gastroenterology, Liver Center, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea
| |
Collapse
|
19
|
Lin H, Li G, Delamarre A, Ahn SH, Zhang X, Kim BK, Liang LY, Lee HW, Wong GLH, Yuen PC, Chan HLY, Chan SL, Wong VWS, de Lédinghen V, Kim SU, Yip TCF. A Liver Stiffness-Based Etiology-Independent Machine Learning Algorithm to Predict Hepatocellular Carcinoma. Clin Gastroenterol Hepatol 2024; 22:602-610.e7. [PMID: 37993034 DOI: 10.1016/j.cgh.2023.11.005] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/15/2023] [Revised: 10/30/2023] [Accepted: 11/01/2023] [Indexed: 11/24/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND & AIMS The existing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk scores have modest accuracy, and most are specific to chronic hepatitis B infection. In this study, we developed and validated a liver stiffness-based machine learning algorithm (ML) for prediction and risk stratification of HCC in various chronic liver diseases (CLDs). METHODS MLs were trained for prediction of HCC in 5155 adult patients with various CLDs in Korea and further tested in 2 prospective cohorts from Hong Kong (HK) (N = 2732) and Europe (N = 2384). Model performance was assessed according to Harrell's C-index and time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. RESULTS We developed the SMART-HCC score, a liver stiffness-based ML HCC risk score, with liver stiffness measurement ranked as the most important among 9 clinical features. The Harrell's C-index of the SMART-HCC score in HK and Europe validation cohorts were 0.89 (95% confidence interval, 0.85-0.92) and 0.91 (95% confidence interval, 0.87-0.95), respectively. The area under ROC curves of the SMART-HCC score for HCC in 5 years was ≥0.89 in both validation cohorts. The performance of SMART-HCC score was significantly better than existing HCC risk scores including aMAP score, Toronto HCC risk index, and 7 hepatitis B-related risk scores. Using dual cutoffs of 0.043 and 0.080, the annual HCC incidence was 0.09%-0.11% for low-risk group and 2.54%-4.64% for high-risk group in the HK and Europe validation cohorts. CONCLUSIONS The SMART-HCC score is a useful machine learning-based tool for clinicians to stratify HCC risk in patients with CLDs.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Huapeng Lin
- Medical Data Analytics Center, Department of Medicine and Therapeutics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong; State Key Laboratory of Digestive Disease, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong
| | - Guanlin Li
- Medical Data Analytics Center, Department of Medicine and Therapeutics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong; State Key Laboratory of Digestive Disease, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong
| | - Adèle Delamarre
- Hepatology Unit, Hôpital Haut Lévêque, Bordeaux University Hospital, Bordeaux, France; INSERM U1312, Bordeaux University, Bordeaux, France
| | - Sang Hoon Ahn
- Department of Internal Medicine, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea; Yonsei Liver Center, Severance Hospital, Seoul, Korea
| | - Xinrong Zhang
- Medical Data Analytics Center, Department of Medicine and Therapeutics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong; State Key Laboratory of Digestive Disease, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong
| | - Beom Kyung Kim
- Department of Internal Medicine, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea; Yonsei Liver Center, Severance Hospital, Seoul, Korea
| | - Lilian Yan Liang
- Medical Data Analytics Center, Department of Medicine and Therapeutics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong; State Key Laboratory of Digestive Disease, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong
| | - Hye Won Lee
- Department of Internal Medicine, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea; Yonsei Liver Center, Severance Hospital, Seoul, Korea
| | - Grace Lai-Hung Wong
- Medical Data Analytics Center, Department of Medicine and Therapeutics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong; State Key Laboratory of Digestive Disease, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong
| | - Pong-Chi Yuen
- Department of Computer Science, Hong Kong Baptist University, Hong Kong
| | - Henry Lik-Yuen Chan
- Medical Data Analytics Center, Department of Medicine and Therapeutics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong; Union Hospital, Hong Kong
| | - Stephen Lam Chan
- Department of Clinical Oncology, Sir YK Pao Centre for Cancer, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong; State Key Laboratory of Translational Oncology, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong
| | - Vincent Wai-Sun Wong
- Medical Data Analytics Center, Department of Medicine and Therapeutics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong; State Key Laboratory of Digestive Disease, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong
| | - Victor de Lédinghen
- Hepatology Unit, Hôpital Haut Lévêque, Bordeaux University Hospital, Bordeaux, France; INSERM U1312, Bordeaux University, Bordeaux, France.
| | - Seung Up Kim
- Department of Internal Medicine, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea; Yonsei Liver Center, Severance Hospital, Seoul, Korea.
| | - Terry Cheuk-Fung Yip
- Medical Data Analytics Center, Department of Medicine and Therapeutics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong; State Key Laboratory of Digestive Disease, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong.
| |
Collapse
|
20
|
Lim YS. Gray zone of hepatitis B virus infection. Saudi J Gastroenterol 2024; 30:76-82. [PMID: 37843134 PMCID: PMC10980295 DOI: 10.4103/sjg.sjg_279_23] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/30/2023] [Revised: 09/11/2023] [Accepted: 09/12/2023] [Indexed: 10/17/2023] Open
Abstract
ABSTRACT A substantial proportion of patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) do not fall into any of the defined phases and are considered to be in the "gray zone" or "indeterminate phase." Most of the current clinical practice guidelines have no recommendations for antiviral treatment for them. However, the gray zone CHB patients with significant hepatitis B virus levels (>2000 IU/mL) and persistently normal alanine aminotransferase (ALT) levels have a significantly high risk of hepatic inflammation, fibrosis, and hepatocellular carcinoma. The molecular, clinical, and economic data that we have reviewed collectively in this article provide support for simplification of treatment initiation strategies that incorporate broader treatment of adult patients with CHB in the gray zone (hepatitis B virus [HBV] DNA ≥2000 IU/mL), regardless of ALT levels.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Young-Suk Lim
- Department of Gastroenterology, Liver Center, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| |
Collapse
|
21
|
Yim HJ, Kang SH, Jung YK, Ahn SH, Kim W, Yang JM, Jang JY, Kweon YO, Cho YK, Kim YJ, Hong GY, Kim DJ, Sohn JH, Lee JW, Park SJ, Yim SY, Park JK, Um SH. Reduced Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis B Receiving Long-Term Besifovir Therapy. Cancers (Basel) 2024; 16:887. [PMID: 38473248 DOI: 10.3390/cancers16050887] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/29/2023] [Revised: 02/14/2024] [Accepted: 02/20/2024] [Indexed: 03/14/2024] Open
Abstract
No information is available regarding the influence of besifovir (BSV), a new nucleotide analogue, on the occurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). This study evaluated the reduced risk of HCC in patients undergoing BSV treatment. A total of 188 patients with CHB were treated with BSV for up to 8 years. We prospectively assessed the incidence of HCC compared with the risk from prediction models. During the follow-up, 5 patients developed HCC: 1 of 139 patients with non-cirrhotic CHB, and 4 of 49 patients with liver cirrhosis. We compared the HCC incidence in non-cirrhotic and cirrhotic patients with the predicted number derived from the REACH-B (risk estimation for HCC in CHB) model and GAG-HCC (guide with age, gender, HBV DNA, core promotor mutation, and cirrhosis) model, respectively. The standardized incidence ratio (SIR) was 0.128 (p = 0.039) at 7 years in non-cirrhotic CHB patients, and the SIR was 0.371 (p = 0.047) at 7.5 years in cirrhotic patients, suggesting a significantly decreased HCC incidence in both groups. HCC prediction was available for BSV-treated patients using existing models. In conclusion, BSV decreased the risk of HCC in patients with CHB, and prediction models were applicable. Clinical trial registry website and trial number: ClinicalTrials.gov no: NCT01937806.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Hyung Joon Yim
- Department of Internal Medicine, Korea University Ansan Hospital, 123, Jeokgeum-ro, Danwon-gu, Ansan 15355, Republic of Korea
| | - Seong Hee Kang
- Department of Internal Medicine, Korea University Ansan Hospital, 123, Jeokgeum-ro, Danwon-gu, Ansan 15355, Republic of Korea
| | - Young Kul Jung
- Department of Internal Medicine, Korea University Ansan Hospital, 123, Jeokgeum-ro, Danwon-gu, Ansan 15355, Republic of Korea
| | - Sang Hoon Ahn
- Department of Internal Medicine, Severance Hospital, Yonsei University College of Medicine, 50-1, Yonsei-ro, Seodaemun-gu, Seoul 03722, Republic of Korea
| | - Won Kim
- Department of Internal Medicine, Seoul Metropolitan Government Seoul National University Boramae Medical Center, 20 Boramae-ro 5-gil, Dongjak-gu, Seoul 07061, Republic of Korea
| | - Jin Mo Yang
- Department of Internal Medicine, St. Vincent's Hospital, College of Medicine, The Catholic University of Korea, 93 Jungbu-daero, Paldal-gu, Suwon 16247, Republic of Korea
| | - Jae Young Jang
- Department of Internal Medicine, Soonchunhyang University Seoul Hospital, 59, Daesagwan-ro, Yongsan-gu, Seoul 04401, Republic of Korea
| | - Yong Oh Kweon
- Department of Internal Medicine, Kyungpook National University Hospital, 680 gukchaebosang-ro, Jung-gu, Daegu 41944, Republic of Korea
| | - Yong Kyun Cho
- Department of Internal Medicine, Kangbuk Samsung Hospital, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, 29 Saemunan-ro, Jongno-gu, Seoul 03181, Republic of Korea
| | - Yoon Jun Kim
- Department of Internal Medicine and Liver Research Institute, Seoul National University Hospital, 101 Daehak-ro, Jongno-gu, Seoul 03080, Republic of Korea
| | - Gun Young Hong
- Department of Internal Medicine, Kwangju Christian Hospital, 37 Yangnim-ro, Nam-gu, Gwangju 61661, Republic of Korea
| | - Dong Joon Kim
- Department of Internal Medicine and Center for Liver and Digestive Diseases, Hallym University Chuncheon Sacred Heart Hospital, 77 Sakju-ro, Chuncheon 24253, Republic of Korea
| | - Joo Hyun Sohn
- Department of Internal Medicine, Hanyang University Guri Hospital, 153, Gyeongchun-ro, Guri-si 11923, Republic of Korea
| | - Jin Woo Lee
- Department of Internal Medicine, Inha University Hospital, 27 Inhang-ro, Jung-gu, Incheon 22332, Republic of Korea
| | - Sung Jae Park
- Department of Internal Medicine, Inje University Busan Paik Hospital, 75 Bokji-ro, Busanjin-gu, Busan 47392, Republic of Korea
| | - Sun Young Yim
- Department of Internal Medicine, Korea University Anam Hospital, 73 Goryeodae-ro, Seongbuk-gu, Seoul 02841, Republic of Korea
| | - Jin Kyung Park
- Ildong Pharmaceutical Company, 2, Baumoe-ro 27-gil, Seocho-gu, Seoul 06752, Republic of Korea
| | - Soon Ho Um
- Department of Internal Medicine, Korea University Anam Hospital, 73 Goryeodae-ro, Seongbuk-gu, Seoul 02841, Republic of Korea
| |
Collapse
|
22
|
Inoue J, Akahane T, Kobayashi T, Kimura O, Sato K, Ninomiya M, Iwata T, Takai S, Kisara N, Sato T, Nagasaki F, Miura M, Nakamura T, Umetsu T, Sano A, Tsuruoka M, Onuki M, Sawahashi S, Niitsuma H, Masamune A. Usefulness of the Fibrosis-4 index and alanine aminotransferase at 1 year of nucleos(t)ide analog treatment for prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis B patients. Hepatol Res 2024; 54:131-141. [PMID: 37621201 DOI: 10.1111/hepr.13957] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/10/2023] [Revised: 08/08/2023] [Accepted: 08/11/2023] [Indexed: 08/26/2023]
Abstract
AIM Nucleos(t)ide analogs do not completely prevent hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in chronic hepatitis B virus infection. This study aimed to evaluate the dynamics of a non-invasive liver fibrosis marker, the Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index, for predicting HCC development. METHODS Among a total of 882 chronically hepatitis B virus infection-infected patients who were treated with nucleos(t)ide analogs, 472 patients without HCC history whose FIB-4 at baseline and 1 year of treatment was obtained were evaluated for the incidence of HCC. RESULTS The median FIB-4 was 2.00 at baseline and was significantly reduced to 1.58 at 1 year (P < 0.001), but the reduction was small at 2 years or later. When a receiver operating characteristic analysis of FIB-4 was performed to predict HCC within 5 years, the area under the curve of FIB-4 at 1 year was higher than that at baseline (0.676 vs. 0.599). The HCC incidence was significantly higher in patients with FIB-4 ≥1.58 than in those with FIB-4 <1.58 (14.8% vs. 3.6% at 10 years, P < 0.001). Additionally, an abnormal alanine aminotransferase (≥31 U/L) at 1 year was an independent risk for HCC. When a fibrosis and alanine aminotransferase-1 (FAL-1) score was evaluated as an applicable number of FIB-4 ≥1.58, and alanine aminotransferase ≥31 as 0, 1, and 2, the HCC risk in patients with score 2 was significantly higher than in those with score 1 or score 0 (24.1% vs. 9.8% vs. 0.7% at 10 years, P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS FIB-4 ≥1.58 and alanine aminotransferase ≥31 at 1 year of nucleos(t)ide analog was an independent risk factor for HCC development, and a score using these factors stratified the risk of HCC.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Jun Inoue
- Division of Gastroenterology, Tohoku University Graduate School of Medicine, Sendai, Japan
| | - Takehiro Akahane
- Department of Gastroenterology, Japanese Red Cross Ishinomaki Hospital, Ishinomaki, Japan
| | - Tomoo Kobayashi
- Department of Hepatology, Tohoku Rosai Hospital, Sendai, Japan
| | - Osamu Kimura
- Department of Gastroenterology, South Miyagi Medical Center, Ogawara, Japan
| | - Kosuke Sato
- Division of Gastroenterology, Tohoku University Graduate School of Medicine, Sendai, Japan
| | - Masashi Ninomiya
- Division of Gastroenterology, Tohoku University Graduate School of Medicine, Sendai, Japan
| | - Tomoaki Iwata
- Division of Gastroenterology, Tohoku University Graduate School of Medicine, Sendai, Japan
| | - Satoshi Takai
- Department of Gastroenterology, Iwaki City Medical Center, Iwaki, Japan
| | - Norihiro Kisara
- Department of Gastroenterology, Japan Community Health Care Organization Sendai South Hospital, Sendai, Japan
| | | | - Futoshi Nagasaki
- Department of Gastroenterology, Sendai City Hospital, Sendai, Japan
| | - Masahito Miura
- Department of Gastroenterology, Omagari Kousei Medical Center, Daisen, Japan
| | - Takuya Nakamura
- Department of Gastroenterology, Yamagata City Hospital Saiseikan, Yamagata, Japan
| | - Teruyuki Umetsu
- Department of Internal Medicine, Kesennuma City Hospital, Kesennuma, Japan
| | - Akitoshi Sano
- Division of Gastroenterology, Tohoku University Graduate School of Medicine, Sendai, Japan
| | - Mio Tsuruoka
- Division of Gastroenterology, Tohoku University Graduate School of Medicine, Sendai, Japan
| | - Masazumi Onuki
- Division of Gastroenterology, Tohoku University Graduate School of Medicine, Sendai, Japan
| | - Satoko Sawahashi
- Division of Gastroenterology, Tohoku University Graduate School of Medicine, Sendai, Japan
| | - Hirofumi Niitsuma
- Division of Gastroenterology, Tohoku University Graduate School of Medicine, Sendai, Japan
| | - Atsushi Masamune
- Division of Gastroenterology, Tohoku University Graduate School of Medicine, Sendai, Japan
| |
Collapse
|
23
|
Patmore LA, van Eekhout KMA, Buti M, Koc ÖM, Agarwal K, de Knegt RJ, Janssen HLA, van der Valk M, Lieveld FI, Hansen BE, Kramer M, de Bruijne J, Claassen MAA, Smit C, de Man RA, Takkenberg B, Carey I, Sonneveld MJ. Hepatocellular carcinoma risk in sub-Saharan African and Afro-Surinamese individuals with chronic hepatitis B living in Europe. J Hepatol 2024; 80:243-250. [PMID: 37898348 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhep.2023.10.019] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/08/2023] [Revised: 09/20/2023] [Accepted: 10/16/2023] [Indexed: 10/30/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND & AIMS Sub-Saharan African (SSA) ethnicity has been associated with a higher risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) among individuals with chronic hepatitis B in cross-sectional studies. However, the incidence of HCC and performance of HCC risk scores in this population are unknown. METHODS We conducted an international multicenter retrospective cohort study of all consecutive HBV-monoinfected individuals of SSA or Afro-Surinamese (AS) ethnicity managed at sites in the Netherlands, the United Kingdom and Spain. We assessed the 5- and 10-year cumulative incidences of HCC in the overall study population, among different clinically relevant subgroups and across (m)PAGE-B subgroups. Next, we explored the different risk factors for HCC. RESULTS During a median follow-up of 8 years, we analyzed 1,473 individuals of whom 34 developed HCC. The 5- and 10-year cumulative incidences of HCC were 1% and 2.4%. The 10-year cumulative incidence of HCC was 0.7% among individuals without advanced fibrosis at baseline, compared to 12.1% among individuals with advanced fibrosis (p <0.001). Higher age (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.05), lower platelet count (aHR 0.98), lower albumin level (aHR 0.90) and higher HBV DNA log10 (aHR 1.21) were significantly associated with HCC development. The 10-year cumulative incidence of HCC was 0.5% among individuals with a low PAGE-B score, compared to 2.9% in the intermediate- and 15.9% in the high-risk groups (p <0.001). CONCLUSIONS In this unique international multicenter cohort of SSA and AS individuals with chronic hepatitis B, we observed 5- and 10-year cumulative HCC risks of 1% and 2.4%, respectively. The risk of HCC was negligible for individuals without advanced fibrosis at baseline, and among individuals with low baseline (m)PAGE-B scores. These findings can be used to guide HCC surveillance strategies. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS Sub-Saharan African ethnicity has been associated with a higher risk of hepatocellular carcinoma among individuals with chronic hepatitis B. In this international multicenter cohort study of sub-Saharan African and Afro-Surinamese individuals living with chronic hepatitis B in Europe, we observed 5- and 10-year cumulative incidences of hepatocellular carcinoma of 1% and 2.4%, respectively. The risk was negligible among individuals without advanced fibrosis and a low baseline (m)PAGE-B score. These findings can be used to guide HCC surveillance strategies in this population.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Lesley A Patmore
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
| | - Kirsi M A van Eekhout
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Amsterdam University Medical Centers, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Maria Buti
- Liver Unit, Hospital University Valle d'Hebron, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Özgur M Koc
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Maastricht University Medical Center, Maastricht, The Netherlands
| | - Kosh Agarwal
- Institute of Liver Studies, King's College Hospital, London, United Kingdom
| | - Rob J de Knegt
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Harry L A Janssen
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands; Toronto Centre for Liver Disease, Toronto General Hospital, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada
| | - Marc van der Valk
- Amsterdam University Medical Centers, University of Amsterdam, Department of Infectious Disease, Amsterdam Infection and Immunity Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands; Hiv Monitoring Foundation, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Faydra I Lieveld
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Utrecht UMC, Utrecht, The Netherlands; Department of Internal Medicine and Infectious Diseases, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Bettina E Hansen
- Deperatment of Epidemiology & Biostatistics, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands; IHPME, University of Toronto & Toronto Centre for Liver disease, UHN, Toronto, Canada
| | - Matthijs Kramer
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Maastricht University Medical Center, Maastricht, The Netherlands
| | - Joep de Bruijne
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Utrecht UMC, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Mark A A Claassen
- Department of Internal Medicine and Infectious Diseases, Rijnstate Hospital, Arnhem, The Netherlands
| | - Colette Smit
- Hiv Monitoring Foundation, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Rob A de Man
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Bart Takkenberg
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Amsterdam University Medical Centers, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Ivana Carey
- Institute of Liver Studies, King's College Hospital, London, United Kingdom
| | - Milan J Sonneveld
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| |
Collapse
|
24
|
He T, Zhang D. Non-linear association of baseline viral load with on-treatment hepatocellular carcinoma risk in chronic hepatitis B: still needs further discussion. Gut 2024:gutjnl-2023-331443. [PMID: 38253480 DOI: 10.1136/gutjnl-2023-331443] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/31/2023] [Accepted: 01/13/2024] [Indexed: 01/24/2024]
Affiliation(s)
- Taiyu He
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Key Laboratory of Molecular Biology for Infectious Diseases (Ministry of Education), Institute for Viral Hepatitis, the Second Affiliated Hospital, Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, China
| | - Dazhi Zhang
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Key Laboratory of Molecular Biology for Infectious Diseases (Ministry of Education), Institute for Viral Hepatitis, the Second Affiliated Hospital, Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, China
| |
Collapse
|
25
|
Hong H, Choi WM, Lee D, Shim JH, Kim KM, Lim YS, Lee HC, Choi J. Prediction of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Development in Korean Patients after Hepatitis C Cure with Direct-Acting Antivirals. Gut Liver 2024; 18:147-155. [PMID: 37076993 PMCID: PMC10791507 DOI: 10.5009/gnl220386] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/03/2022] [Revised: 12/30/2022] [Accepted: 01/17/2023] [Indexed: 04/21/2023] Open
Abstract
Background/Aims With the wide application of direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) for hepatitis C virus infection, the number of patients achieving a sustained virologic response (SVR) will continue to increase. However, no consensus has been achieved on exempting SVR-achieving patients from hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance. Methods Between 2013 and 2021, 873 Korean patients who achieved SVR following DAA treatment were analyzed. We evaluated the predictive performance of seven noninvasive scores (PAGE-B, modified PAGE-B, Toronto HCC risk index, fibrosis-4, aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index, albumin-bilirubin, and age male albumin-bilirubin platelet [aMAP]) at baseline and after SVR. Results The mean age of the 873 patients (39.3% males) was 59.1 years, and 224 patients (25.7%) had cirrhosis. During 3,542 person-years of follow-up, 44 patients developed HCC, with an annual incidence of 1.24/100 person-years. Male sex (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR], 2.21), cirrhosis (AHR, 7.93), and older age (AHR, 1.05) were associated with a significantly higher HCC risk in multivariate analysis. The performance of all scores at the time of SVR were numerically better than those at baseline as determined by the integrated area under the curve. Time-dependent area under the curves for predicting the 3-, 5-, and 7-year risk of HCC after SVR were higher in mPAGE-B (0.778, 0.746, and 0.812, respectively) and aMAP (0.776, 0.747, and 0.790, respectively) systems than others. No patients predicted as low-risk by the aMAP or mPAGE-B systems developed HCC. Conclusions aMAP and mPAGE-B scores demonstrated the highest predictive performance for de novo HCC in DAA-treated, SVR-achieving patients. Hence, these two systems may be used to identify low-risk patients that can be exempted from HCC surveillance.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Hyeyeon Hong
- Department of Gastroenterology, Liver Center, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
| | - Won-Mook Choi
- Department of Gastroenterology, Liver Center, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
| | - Danbi Lee
- Department of Gastroenterology, Liver Center, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
| | - Ju Hyun Shim
- Department of Gastroenterology, Liver Center, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
| | - Kang Mo Kim
- Department of Gastroenterology, Liver Center, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
| | - Young-Suk Lim
- Department of Gastroenterology, Liver Center, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
| | - Han Chu Lee
- Department of Gastroenterology, Liver Center, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
| | - Jonggi Choi
- Department of Gastroenterology, Liver Center, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
| |
Collapse
|
26
|
Zhang Y, Wan G, Li H, Gao L, Liu N, Gao P, Liu Y, Gao X, Duan X. A prediction nomogram for hepatitis B virus-associated hepatocellular carcinoma. Scand J Gastroenterol 2024; 59:70-77. [PMID: 37647217 DOI: 10.1080/00365521.2023.2252546] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/22/2023] [Revised: 08/16/2023] [Accepted: 08/23/2023] [Indexed: 09/01/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The present study aimed to develop and validate a new nomogram for predicting the incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) among chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients receiving antiviral therapy from real-world data. METHODS The nomogram was established based on a real-world retrospective study of 764 patients with HBV from October 2008 to July 2020. A predictive model for the incidence of HCC was developed by multivariable Cox regression, and a nomogram was constructed. The predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of the nomogram were assessed by the concordance index (C-index), calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Risk group stratification was performed to assess the predictive capacity of the nomogram. The nomogram was compared to three current commonly used predictive models. RESULTS A total of 764 patients with HBV were recruited for this study. Age, family history of HCC, alcohol consumption, and Aspartate aminotransferase-to-Platelet Ratio Index (APRI) were all independent risk predictors of HCC in CHB patients. The constructed nomogram had good discrimination with a C-index of 0.811. The calibration curve and DCA also proved the reliability and accuracy of the nomogram. Three risk groups (low, moderate, and high) with significantly different prognoses were identified (p < 0.001). The model's performance was significantly better than that of other risk models. CONCLUSIONS The nomogram was superior in predicting HCC risk among CHB patients who received antiviral treatment. The model can be utilized in clinical practice to aid decision-making on the strategy of long-term HCC surveillance, especially for moderate- and high-risk patients.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Yijin Zhang
- Department of General Medicine, Beijing Ditan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
| | - Gang Wan
- Department of Medical Record, Beijing Ditan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
| | - Hongjie Li
- Department of General Medicine, Beijing Ditan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
| | - Lili Gao
- Department of General Medicine, Beijing Ditan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
| | - Nan Liu
- Department of General Medicine, Beijing Ditan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
| | - Ping Gao
- Department of General Medicine, Beijing Ditan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
| | - Yaping Liu
- Department of General Medicine, Beijing Ditan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
| | - Xuesong Gao
- Department of General Medicine, Beijing Ditan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
| | - Xuefei Duan
- Department of General Medicine, Beijing Ditan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
| |
Collapse
|
27
|
Hao X, Fan R, Zeng HM, Hou JL. Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk Scores from Modeling to Real Clinical Practice in Areas Highly Endemic for Hepatitis B Infection. J Clin Transl Hepatol 2023; 11:1508-1519. [PMID: 38161501 PMCID: PMC10752803 DOI: 10.14218/jcth.2023.00087] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/24/2023] [Revised: 05/04/2023] [Accepted: 06/02/2023] [Indexed: 01/03/2024] Open
Abstract
Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) accounts for the majority of primary liver cancers and represents a global health challenge. Liver cancer ranks third in cancer-related mortality with 830,000 deaths and sixth in incidence with 906,000 new cases annually worldwide. HCC most commonly occurs in patients with underlying liver disease, especially chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection in highly endemic areas. Predicting HCC risk based on scoring models for patients with chronic liver disease is a simple, effective strategy for identifying and stratifying patients to improve the early diagnosis rate and prognosis of HCC. We examined 23 HCC risk scores published worldwide in CHB patients with (n=10) or without (n=13) antiviral treatment. We also described the characteristics of the risk score's predictive performance and application status. In the future, higher predictive accuracy could be achieved by combining novel technologies and machine learning algorithms to develop and update HCC risk score models and integrated early warning and diagnosis systems for HCC in hospitals and communities.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Xin Hao
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Nanfang Hospital, Southern Medical University, State Key Laboratory of Organ Failure Research, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Viral Hepatitis Research, Guangdong Provincial Institute of Liver Diseases, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China
| | - Rong Fan
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Nanfang Hospital, Southern Medical University, State Key Laboratory of Organ Failure Research, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Viral Hepatitis Research, Guangdong Provincial Institute of Liver Diseases, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China
| | - Hong-Mei Zeng
- National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
| | - Jin-Lin Hou
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Nanfang Hospital, Southern Medical University, State Key Laboratory of Organ Failure Research, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Viral Hepatitis Research, Guangdong Provincial Institute of Liver Diseases, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China
| |
Collapse
|
28
|
Ha Y, Lim J, Chon YE, Kim MN, Lee JH, Kim KM, Shim JH, Lee D, Hwang SG, Han S, Lee HC. Five-year on-treatment variables-based PPACS model predicts subsequent hepatocellular carcinoma in entecavir/tenofovir-treated patients. Int J Cancer 2023; 153:2045-2054. [PMID: 37615539 DOI: 10.1002/ijc.34704] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/19/2023] [Revised: 08/01/2023] [Accepted: 08/03/2023] [Indexed: 08/25/2023]
Abstract
Considering the lower risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients receiving long-term potent antiviral therapy, models predicting HCC after 5 years of therapy are needed. We conducted a multicenter retrospective cohort study to construct and validate a model predicting HCC after 5 years of entecavir (ETV) or tenofovir (TFV) therapy for CHB. The endpoint was HCC after 5 years of ETV/TFV therapy. Information on age, sex, liver cirrhosis (assessed by diagnosis code and confirmed by clinical findings) and type of antiviral agent was obtained at baseline (initiation of ETV/TFV). Laboratory values were collected at baseline and 5 years. Risk factors for HCC were identified in the training set and the final prediction model was validated using the test set. Among 7542 patients, 345 (4.6%) developed HCC after 5 years of ETV/TFV therapy. HCC risk after 5 years of ETV/TFV therapy was increased by 4-fold in patients with liver cirrhosis than in those without cirrhosis at baseline. Furthermore, Platelet counts and Prothrombin time at 5 years, Age at baseline and Sex were associated with risk of HCC and were incorporated into a prediction model, PPACS. PPACS showed a good performance with a time-dependent area under the curve of 0.80 (95% confidence interval, 0.75-0.85) at 8-year of ETV/TFV therapy, a Brier score of 0.031 and an integrated Brier score of 0.006 in the test set. In conclusion, the PPACS model provides a reliable assessment of HCC risk after 5 years of ETV/TFV therapy (https://ppacs.shinyapps.io/shiny_app_up/).
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Yeonjung Ha
- Department of Gastroenterology, CHA Bundang Medical Center, CHA University, Seongnam-si, South Korea
| | - Jihye Lim
- Asan Liver Center, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Internal Medicine, College of Medicine, The Catholic University of Korea, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Young Eun Chon
- Department of Gastroenterology, CHA Bundang Medical Center, CHA University, Seongnam-si, South Korea
| | - Mi Na Kim
- Department of Gastroenterology, CHA Bundang Medical Center, CHA University, Seongnam-si, South Korea
| | - Joo Ho Lee
- Department of Gastroenterology, CHA Bundang Medical Center, CHA University, Seongnam-si, South Korea
| | - Kang Mo Kim
- Asan Liver Center, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Ju Hyun Shim
- Asan Liver Center, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Danbi Lee
- Asan Liver Center, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Seong Gyu Hwang
- Department of Gastroenterology, CHA Bundang Medical Center, CHA University, Seongnam-si, South Korea
| | - Seungbong Han
- Department of Biostatistics, Korea University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Han Chu Lee
- Asan Liver Center, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea
| |
Collapse
|
29
|
Kamal H, Ingre M, Stål P, Westman G, Bruce D, Wedemeyer H, Duberg AS, Aleman S. Age-specific and sex-specific risks for HCC in African-born persons with chronic hepatitis B without cirrhosis. Hepatol Commun 2023; 7:e0334. [PMID: 38051538 PMCID: PMC10697596 DOI: 10.1097/hc9.0000000000000334] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/19/2023] [Accepted: 10/23/2023] [Indexed: 12/07/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The international recommendations of HCC surveillance for African-born persons with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) without cirrhosis are divergent, probably due to scarce data on incidence rate (IR) for HCC. METHODS We assembled a cohort with prospectively collected data of Swedish residents of African origin with diagnosed CHB without cirrhosis at baseline from 1990 to 2015. Data from nationwide registers were used to calculate the sex-specific IR and IR ratio (incidence rate ratios) in relation to age, comorbidities, and birth region, using a generalized linear model with a log-link function and Poisson distribution. RESULTS Among 3865 African-born persons with CHB without cirrhosis at baseline, 31 (0.8%; 77.4% men) developed HCC during a median of 11.1 years of follow-up, with poor survival after HCC diagnosis. The mean age at HCC diagnosis was 46.8 (SD±14.7; range 23-79) in men. HCC IR exceeded the recommended surveillance threshold of 0.2%/year at ages 54 and 59 years in men and women, respectively, and at ages 20-40 years if HCV or HDV co-infection was present. African-born men with CHB had an incidence rate ratios of 10.6 (95% CI 4.4-31.5) for HCC compared to matched African-born peers without CHB, and an incidence rate ratios of 35.3 (95% CI 16.0-88.7) compared to a matched general population. CONCLUSIONS African-born men with CHB without cirrhosis reached an IR of 0.2%/year between 50 and 60 years, and at younger ages if HCV or HDV co-infection was present. Our findings need further confirmation, and new cost-effectiveness analyses specific for young populations are needed, to provide personalized and cost-effective HCC surveillance.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Habiba Kamal
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Karolinska University Hospital, Stockholm, Sweden
- Department of Medicine Huddinge, Karolinska Institute, Stockholm, Sweden
- Centre for Bioinformatics and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institute, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Michael Ingre
- Centre for Bioinformatics and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institute, Stockholm, Sweden
- Department of Upper GI Diseases, Karolinska University Hospital, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Per Stål
- Centre for Bioinformatics and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institute, Stockholm, Sweden
- Department of Medical Sciences, Section of Infectious diseases, Uppsala University, Uppsala Sweden
| | | | - Daniel Bruce
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, University of Hannover, Germany
| | - Heiner Wedemeyer
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Örebro University Hospital, Örebro, Sweden
| | - Ann-Sofi Duberg
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Örebro University Hospital, Örebro, Sweden
| | - Soo Aleman
- Department of Medicine Huddinge, Karolinska Institute, Stockholm, Sweden
- Centre for Bioinformatics and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institute, Stockholm, Sweden
| |
Collapse
|
30
|
Huang DQ, Singal AG, Kanwal F, Lampertico P, Buti M, Sirlin CB, Nguyen MH, Loomba R. Hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance - utilization, barriers and the impact of changing aetiology. Nat Rev Gastroenterol Hepatol 2023; 20:797-809. [PMID: 37537332 DOI: 10.1038/s41575-023-00818-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 22.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 06/30/2023] [Indexed: 08/05/2023]
Abstract
Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the third leading cause of cancer death worldwide. Surveillance for HCC is critical for early detection and treatment, but fewer than one-quarter of individuals at risk of HCC undergo surveillance. Multiple failures across the screening process contribute to the underutilization of surveillance, including limited disease awareness among patients and health-care providers, knowledge gaps, and difficulty recognizing patients who are at risk. Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and alcohol-associated liver disease are the fastest-rising causes of HCC-related death worldwide and are associated with unique barriers to surveillance. In particular, more than one-third of patients with HCC related to non-alcoholic fatty liver disease do not have cirrhosis and therefore lack a routine indication for HCC surveillance on the basis of current practice guidelines. Semi-annual abdominal ultrasound with measurement of α-fetoprotein levels is recommended for HCC surveillance, but the sensitivity of this approach for early HCC is limited, especially for patients with cirrhosis or obesity. In this Review, we discuss the current status of HCC surveillance and the remaining challenges, including the changing aetiology of liver disease. We also discuss strategies to improve the utilization and quality of surveillance for HCC.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Daniel Q Huang
- Department of Medicine, Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore.
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, National University Health System, Singapore, Singapore.
| | - Amit G Singal
- Department of Internal Medicine, UT Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas, Texas, USA
| | - Fasiha Kanwal
- Center for Innovations in Quality, Effectiveness and Safety (IQuESt), Michael E. DeBakey Veterans Affairs Medical Center, Houston, Texas, USA
- Section of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, Baylor College of Medicine, Michael E. DeBakey Veterans Affairs Medical Center, Houston, Texas, USA
| | - Pietro Lampertico
- Foundation IRCCS Ca' Granda Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico, Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Milan, Italy
- CRC "A. M. and A. Migliavacca" Center for Liver Disease, Department of Pathophysiology and Transplantation, University of Milan, Milan, Italy
| | - Maria Buti
- Liver Unit, Department of Internal Medicine, Hospital Universitari Valle d'Hebron, Vall d'Hebron Barcelona Hospital Campus, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
- CIBER-EHD del Instituto Carlos III, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Claude B Sirlin
- Liver Imaging Group, Department of Radiology, UCSD School of Medicine, San Diego, CA, USA
| | - Mindie H Nguyen
- Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, Stanford University Medical Center, Stanford University, Palo Alto, CA, USA
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Stanford University Medical Center, Stanford University, Palo Alto, CA, USA
| | - Rohit Loomba
- NAFLD Research Center, Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, University of California at San Diego, San Diego, CA, USA
- Division of Epidemiology, Department of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of California at San Diego, San Diego, CA, USA
| |
Collapse
|
31
|
Kim BK, Ahn SH. Prediction model of hepatitis B virus-related hepatocellular carcinoma in patients receiving antiviral therapy. J Formos Med Assoc 2023; 122:1238-1246. [PMID: 37330305 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfma.2023.05.029] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/01/2022] [Revised: 05/15/2023] [Accepted: 05/24/2023] [Indexed: 06/19/2023] Open
Abstract
Chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection, which ultimately leads to liver cirrhosis, hepatic decompensation, and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), remains a significant disease burden worldwide. Despite the use of antiviral therapy (AVT) using oral nucleos(t)ide analogs (NUCs) with high genetic barriers, the risk of HCC development cannot be completely eliminated. Therefore, bi-annual surveillance of HCC using abdominal ultrasonography with or without tumor markers is recommended for at-risk populations. For a more precise assessment of future HCC risk at the individual level, many HCC prediction models have been proposed in the era of potent AVT with promising results. It allows prognostication according to the risk of HCC development, for example, low-vs. intermediate-vs. high-risk groups. Most of these models have the advantage of high negative predictive values for HCC development, allowing exemption from biannual HCC screening. Recently, non-invasive surrogate markers for liver fibrosis, such as vibration-controlled transient elastography, have been introduced as integral components of the equations, providing better predictive performance in general. Furthermore, beyond the conventional statistical methods that primarily depend on multi-variable Cox regression analyses based on the previous literature, newer techniques using artificial intelligence have also been applied in the design of HCC prediction models. Here, we aimed to review the HCC risk prediction models that were developed in the era of potent AVT and validated among independent cohorts to address the clinical unmet needs, as well as comment on future direction to establish the individual HCC risk more precisely.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Beom Kyung Kim
- Department of Internal Medicine, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea; Institute of Gastroenterology, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea; Yonsei Liver Center, Severance Hospital, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Sang Hoon Ahn
- Department of Internal Medicine, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea; Institute of Gastroenterology, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea; Yonsei Liver Center, Severance Hospital, Seoul, Republic of Korea.
| |
Collapse
|
32
|
Wang Q, Guo D, Gao W, Yuan C, Li J, Zhang Y, He N, Zhao P, Zheng J, Zhang Y. Individual surveillance by competing risk model for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma occurrence in all-cause cirrhosis. J Cancer Res Clin Oncol 2023; 149:13403-13416. [PMID: 37495731 PMCID: PMC10587216 DOI: 10.1007/s00432-023-04911-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/26/2023] [Accepted: 05/20/2023] [Indexed: 07/28/2023]
Abstract
PURPOSE It was of great significance to identify someone with a high risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) occurrence and make a diagnosis as early as possible. Therefore, we aimed to develop and validate a new, objective, and accurate prediction model, and convert it into a nomogram to make a personalized prediction of cancer occurrence in cirrhotic patients with different etiologies. METHODS The present study included 938 patients with cirrhosis from January 1, 2011, to December 31, 2012. Patients were prospectively followed-up until January 1, 2018. We used a competing risk model and the Fine-Gray test to develop and validate the prediction model and to plot a nomogram based on the model established. RESULTS At the end of follow-up, 202 (21.5%) patients developed HCC, with a 5-year incidence of 19.0% (corrected for competing risk model). Based on the competing risk regression method, we built a prediction model including age, gender, etiology, lymphocyte, and A/G ratio. Three groups with different risks were generated on account of tertiles of the 5-year risk predicted by the model. The cumulative 1-, 3-, and 5-year incidences of HCC were 2.0%, 20.8%, and 42.3% in high-risk group, 0.9%, 10.1%, and 17.7% in medium-risk group, and 0%, 2.0%, 8.5% in low-risk group (P < 0.001). The model showed excellent discrimination and calibration in predicting the risk of HCC occurrence in patients with all-cause cirrhosis. CONCLUSION The model could make an individual prediction of cancer occurrence and stratify patients based on predicted risk, regardless of the causes of cirrhosis.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Qi Wang
- Research Center for Biomedical Resources, Beijing You'an Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, 100069, China
| | - Dandan Guo
- Interventional Therapy Center for Oncology, Beijing You'an Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, 100069, China
| | - Wenfeng Gao
- Interventional Therapy Center for Oncology, Beijing You'an Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, 100069, China
| | - Chunwang Yuan
- Interventional Therapy Center for Oncology, Beijing You'an Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, 100069, China
| | - Jianjun Li
- Interventional Therapy Center for Oncology, Beijing You'an Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, 100069, China
| | - Yinghua Zhang
- Interventional Therapy Center for Oncology, Beijing You'an Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, 100069, China
| | - Ning He
- Interventional Therapy Center for Oncology, Beijing You'an Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, 100069, China
| | - Peng Zhao
- Interventional Therapy Center for Oncology, Beijing You'an Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, 100069, China
| | - Jiasheng Zheng
- Interventional Therapy Center for Oncology, Beijing You'an Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, 100069, China
| | - Yonghong Zhang
- Interventional Therapy Center for Oncology, Beijing You'an Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, 100069, China.
| |
Collapse
|
33
|
Hur MH, Park MK, Yip TCF, Chen CH, Lee HC, Choi WM, Kim SU, Lim YS, Park SY, Wong GLH, Sinn DH, Jin YJ, Kim SE, Peng CY, Shin HP, Chen CY, Kim HY, Lee HA, Seo YS, Jun DW, Yoon EL, Sohn JH, Ahn SB, Shim JJ, Jeong SW, Cho YK, Kim HS, Jang MJ, Kim YJ, Yoon JH, Lee JH. Personalized Antiviral Drug Selection in Patients With Chronic Hepatitis B Using a Machine Learning Model: A Multinational Study. Am J Gastroenterol 2023; 118:1963-1972. [PMID: 36881437 DOI: 10.14309/ajg.0000000000002234] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/14/2022] [Accepted: 03/01/2023] [Indexed: 03/08/2023]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) is reportedly superior or at least comparable to entecavir (ETV) for the prevention of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis B; however, it has distinct long-term renal and bone toxicities. This study aimed to develop and validate a machine learning model (designated as Prediction of Liver cancer using Artificial intelligence-driven model for Network-antiviral Selection for hepatitis B [PLAN-S]) to predict an individualized risk of HCC during ETV or TDF therapy. METHODS This multinational study included 13,970 patients with chronic hepatitis B. The derivation (n = 6,790), Korean validation (n = 4,543), and Hong Kong-Taiwan validation cohorts (n = 2,637) were established. Patients were classified as the TDF-superior group when a PLAN-S-predicted HCC risk under ETV treatment is greater than under TDF treatment, and the others were defined as the TDF-nonsuperior group. RESULTS The PLAN-S model was derived using 8 variables and generated a c-index between 0.67 and 0.78 for each cohort. The TDF-superior group included a higher proportion of male patients and patients with cirrhosis than the TDF-nonsuperior group. In the derivation, Korean validation, and Hong Kong-Taiwan validation cohorts, 65.3%, 63.5%, and 76.4% of patients were classified as the TDF-superior group, respectively. In the TDF-superior group of each cohort, TDF was associated with a significantly lower risk of HCC than ETV (hazard ratio = 0.60-0.73, all P < 0.05). In the TDF-nonsuperior group, however, there was no significant difference between the 2 drugs (hazard ratio = 1.16-1.29, all P > 0.1). DISCUSSION Considering the individual HCC risk predicted by PLAN-S and the potential TDF-related toxicities, TDF and ETV treatment may be recommended for the TDF-superior and TDF-nonsuperior groups, respectively.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Moon Haeng Hur
- Department of Internal Medicine and Liver Research Institute, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Min Kyung Park
- Department of Internal Medicine and Liver Research Institute, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Terry Cheuk-Fung Yip
- Medical Data Analytics Centre (MDAC), Department of Medicine and Therapeutics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
| | - Chien-Hung Chen
- Division of Hepatogastroenterology, Department of Internal Medicine, Kaohsiung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital and Chang Gung University College of Medicine, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
| | - Hyung-Chul Lee
- Department of Anesthesiology, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Won-Mook Choi
- Department of Internal Medicine, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Asan Medical Center, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Seung Up Kim
- Department of Internal Medicine and Yonsei Liver Center, Severance Hospital, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Young-Suk Lim
- Department of Internal Medicine, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Asan Medical Center, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Soo Young Park
- Department of Internal Medicine, School of Medicine, Kyungpook National University, Kyungpook National University Hospital, Daegu, Republic of Korea
| | - Grace Lai-Hung Wong
- Medical Data Analytics Centre (MDAC), Department of Medicine and Therapeutics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
| | - Dong Hyun Sinn
- Department of Internal Medicine, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Young-Joo Jin
- Department of Internal Medicine, Inha University Hospital, Inha University School of Medicine, Incheon, Republic of Korea
| | - Sung Eun Kim
- Department of Internal Medicine, Hallym University Sacred Heart Hospital, Hallym University College of Medicine, Anyang, Republic of Korea
| | - Cheng-Yuan Peng
- Center for Digestive Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, China Medical University Hospital, China Medical University, Taichung, Taiwan
| | - Hyun Phil Shin
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Kyung Hee University Hospital at Gangdong, Kyung Hee University School of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Chi-Yi Chen
- Division of Hepatogastroenterology, Department of Internal Medicine, Ditmanson Medical Foundation Chia-Yi Christian Hospital, Chia-Yi, Taiwan
| | - Hwi Young Kim
- Department of Internal Medicine, College of Medicine, Ewha Womans University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Han Ah Lee
- Department of Internal Medicine, College of Medicine, Ewha Womans University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Yeon Seok Seo
- Department of Internal Medicine, Korea University Anam Hospital, Korea University College of Medicine, Republic of Korea
| | - Dae Won Jun
- Department of Internal Medicine, Hanyang University Hospital, Hanyang University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Eileen L Yoon
- Department of Internal Medicine, Hanyang University Hospital, Hanyang University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
- Department of Internal Medicine, Sanggye Paik Hospital, Inje University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Joo Hyun Sohn
- Department of Internal Medicine, Hanyang University Guri Hospital, Hanyang University College of Medicine, Guri, Republic of Korea
| | - Sang Bong Ahn
- Department of Internal Medicine, Nowon Eulji Medical Center, Eulji University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Jae-Jun Shim
- Department of Internal Medicine, Kyung Hee University School of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Soung Won Jeong
- Department of Internal Medicine, Soonchunhyang University College of Medicine, Soonchunhyang University Seoul Hospital, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Yong Kyun Cho
- Department of Internal Medicine, Kangbuk Samsung Hospital, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Hyoung Su Kim
- Department of Internal Medicine, Kangdong Sacred Heart Hospital, Hallym University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Myoung-Jin Jang
- Medical Research Collaboration Center, Seoul National University Hospital, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Yoon Jun Kim
- Department of Internal Medicine and Liver Research Institute, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Jung-Hwan Yoon
- Department of Internal Medicine and Liver Research Institute, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Jeong-Hoon Lee
- Department of Internal Medicine and Liver Research Institute, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| |
Collapse
|
34
|
Zhu Q, Zhou J, Li H, Wang H, Ren J, Sun S, Yang M, Wu S, Cao M, Wang K, You H, Ma H. Dynamic changes in three biomarkers predict early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with chronic hepatitis B receiving antiviral therapy. J Cancer Res Clin Oncol 2023; 149:12691-12701. [PMID: 37452848 DOI: 10.1007/s00432-023-05024-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/26/2023] [Accepted: 06/26/2023] [Indexed: 07/18/2023]
Abstract
PURPOSE Patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) remain at risk for hepatocellular carcinoma during antiviral therapy. We aimed to clarify the values of alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), lectin-reactive fraction of AFP (AFP-L3), and des-γ-carboxyprothrombin (DCP) for early warning of HCC. METHODS A total of 1348 CHB patients received antiviral therapy and follow-up every 26 weeks. Eighty-four patients with HCC were age-, sex-, and cirrhosis-matched with 168 controls. AFP, AFP-L3, and DCP were compared between the groups from 104 weeks before HCC diagnosis (- 104 w) to the time of diagnosis (0 w). RESULTS Of the 84 HCC patients, 60 (71.4%) had early-stage HCC, AFP increased from - 26 w, and AFP-L3 and DCP increased from - 78 w. However, levels were unchanged in controls. ΔAFP, ΔAFP-L3, and ΔDCP showed similar abilities for predicting HCC (P > 0.05). Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed that AFP had better diagnostic performance for HCC than AFP-L3, DCP, or their combination. The cut-off values of AFP, AFP-L3, and DCP were 5.3 ng/mL, 1.05%, and 31.5 mAU/mL, respectively. Notably, lower AFP values were required to diagnose HCC in patients with detectable HBV DNA (4.1 ng/mL) or elevated alanine aminotransferase (5.2 ng/mL). CONCLUSIONS Changes in AFP, AFP-L3, and DCP can help to predict HCC in CHB patients receiving antiviral therapy. A lower AFP value is needed to diagnose HCC, especially in patients with detectable HBV DNA or elevated alanine aminotransferase.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Qianyu Zhu
- Liver Research Center, Beijing Friendship Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
- National Clinical Research Center for Digestive Diseases, Beijing, China
| | - Jialing Zhou
- Liver Research Center, Beijing Friendship Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
- National Clinical Research Center for Digestive Diseases, Beijing, China
| | - Hongyi Li
- Liver Research Center, Beijing Friendship Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
- National Clinical Research Center for Digestive Diseases, Beijing, China
| | - Hui Wang
- Liver Research Center, Beijing Friendship Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
- National Clinical Research Center for Digestive Diseases, Beijing, China
| | - Jiangbo Ren
- Liver Research Center, Beijing Friendship Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
- National Clinical Research Center for Digestive Diseases, Beijing, China
| | - Shujie Sun
- Liver Research Center, Beijing Friendship Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
- National Clinical Research Center for Digestive Diseases, Beijing, China
| | - Miaoran Yang
- Liver Research Center, Beijing Friendship Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
- National Clinical Research Center for Digestive Diseases, Beijing, China
| | - Shanshan Wu
- National Clinical Research Center for Digestive Diseases, Beijing, China
| | - Ming Cao
- Molecular Biology Laboratory, Baoding People's Hospital, Baoding, China
| | - Kaixiang Wang
- Molecular Biology Laboratory, Baoding People's Hospital, Baoding, China
| | - Hong You
- Liver Research Center, Beijing Friendship Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China.
- National Clinical Research Center for Digestive Diseases, Beijing, China.
| | - Hong Ma
- Liver Research Center, Beijing Friendship Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China.
- National Clinical Research Center for Digestive Diseases, Beijing, China.
| |
Collapse
|
35
|
Feng S, Wang J, Wang L, Qiu Q, Chen D, Su H, Li X, Xiao Y, Lin C. Current Status and Analysis of Machine Learning in Hepatocellular Carcinoma. J Clin Transl Hepatol 2023; 11:1184-1191. [PMID: 37577233 PMCID: PMC10412715 DOI: 10.14218/jcth.2022.00077s] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/26/2022] [Revised: 12/11/2022] [Accepted: 02/21/2023] [Indexed: 07/03/2023] Open
Abstract
Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a common tumor. Although the diagnosis and treatment of HCC have made great progress, the overall prognosis remains poor. As the core component of artificial intelligence, machine learning (ML) has developed rapidly in the past decade. In particular, ML has become widely used in the medical field, and it has helped in the diagnosis and treatment of cancer. Different algorithms of ML have different roles in diagnosis, treatment, and prognosis. This article reviews recent research, explains the application of different ML models in HCC, and provides suggestions for follow-up research.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Sijia Feng
- General Surgery, Central South University Xiangya Hospital, Changsha, Hunan, China
| | - Jianhua Wang
- General Surgery, Central South University Xiangya Hospital, Changsha, Hunan, China
| | - Liheng Wang
- General Surgery, Central South University Xiangya Hospital, Changsha, Hunan, China
| | - Qixuan Qiu
- General Surgery, Central South University Xiangya Hospital, Changsha, Hunan, China
| | - Dongdong Chen
- General Surgery, Central South University Xiangya Hospital, Changsha, Hunan, China
| | - Huo Su
- General Surgery, Central South University Xiangya Hospital, Changsha, Hunan, China
| | - Xiaoli Li
- General Surgery, Central South University Xiangya Hospital, Changsha, Hunan, China
| | - Yao Xiao
- General Surgery, Central South University Xiangya Hospital, Changsha, Hunan, China
| | - Chiayen Lin
- General Surgery, Central South University Xiangya Hospital, Changsha, Hunan, China
| |
Collapse
|
36
|
Yip TCF, Wong VWS, Lai MSM, Lai JCT, Tse YK, Liang LY, Hui VWK, Chan HLY, Wong GLH. Diabetes Mellitus Impacts on the Performance of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk Scores in Chronic Hepatitis B Patients. Clin Gastroenterol Hepatol 2023; 21:2864-2875.e16. [PMID: 36828301 DOI: 10.1016/j.cgh.2023.02.004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/12/2022] [Revised: 01/14/2023] [Accepted: 02/07/2023] [Indexed: 02/26/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND & AIMS We examined whether changing clinical characteristics and presence of diabetes mellitus (DM) impact the performance of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk scores. METHODS Adult patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) on ≥6 months of entecavir/tenofovir treatment between January 2005 and March 2020 were identified using a territory-wide electronic database in Hong Kong. DM was defined by antidiabetic agents, hemoglobin A1c ≥6.5%, fasting glucose ≥7 mmol/L, and/or diagnosis codes. PAGE-B, modified PAGE-B (mPAGE-B), and aMAP scores were assessed by area under the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) and compared with CAMD and REAL-B scores with DM as a component. RESULTS Of 48,706 patients, 2792, 11,563, 15,471, and 18,880 started entecavir/tenofovir treatment between 2005-2008, 2009-2012, 2013-2016, and 2017-2020, respectively; DM prevalence rose from 15.5% in 2005-2008 to 24.3% in 2017-2020. AUROCs were comparable across the 4 periods in the 5 HCC risk scores (AUROCs ranged between 0.75 and 0.81). At a median follow-up of 4.4 years, 1512 non-diabetic (4.0%) and 645 (6.2%) diabetic patients developed HCC. AUROCs of all 5 scores were lower in diabetic patients than in non-diabetic patients (AUROCs ranged between 0.67-0.71 vs 0.78-0.82; all P < .001). REAL-B score achieved an AUROC of 0.71 in diabetic and 0.82 in non-diabetic patients. Both diabetic and non-diabetic patients in the low-risk group by REAL-B score had a low HCC incidence below the threshold of cost-effective HCC surveillance, ie, 0.2% annually. CONCLUSIONS REAL-B score is accurate and preferred in entecavir/tenofovir-treated CHB patients because of the increasing prevalence of DM.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Terry Cheuk-Fung Yip
- Department of Medicine and Therapeutics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong; Medical Data Analytics Centre (MDAC), The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong; Institute of Digestive Disease, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong
| | - Vincent Wai-Sun Wong
- Department of Medicine and Therapeutics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong; Medical Data Analytics Centre (MDAC), The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong; Institute of Digestive Disease, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong
| | - Mandy Sze-Man Lai
- Department of Medicine and Therapeutics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong; Medical Data Analytics Centre (MDAC), The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong
| | - Jimmy Che-To Lai
- Department of Medicine and Therapeutics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong; Medical Data Analytics Centre (MDAC), The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong; Institute of Digestive Disease, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong
| | - Yee-Kit Tse
- Department of Medicine and Therapeutics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong; Medical Data Analytics Centre (MDAC), The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong; Institute of Digestive Disease, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong
| | - Lilian Yan Liang
- Department of Medicine and Therapeutics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong; Medical Data Analytics Centre (MDAC), The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong
| | - Vicki Wing-Ki Hui
- Department of Medicine and Therapeutics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong; Medical Data Analytics Centre (MDAC), The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong
| | - Henry Lik-Yuen Chan
- Medical Data Analytics Centre (MDAC), The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong; Faculty of Medicine, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong; Department of Internal Medicine, Union Hospital, Hong Kong
| | - Grace Lai-Hung Wong
- Department of Medicine and Therapeutics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong; Medical Data Analytics Centre (MDAC), The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong; Institute of Digestive Disease, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong.
| |
Collapse
|
37
|
Fan R, Chen L, Zhao S, Yang H, Li Z, Qian Y, Ma H, Liu X, Wang C, Liang X, Bai J, Xie J, Fan X, Xie Q, Hao X, Wang C, Yang S, Gao Y, Bai H, Dou X, Liu J, Wu L, Jiang G, Xia Q, Zheng D, Rao H, Xia J, Shang J, Gao P, Xie D, Yu Y, Yang Y, Gao H, Liu Y, Sun A, Jiang Y, Yu Y, Niu J, Sun J, Wang H, Hou J. Novel, high accuracy models for hepatocellular carcinoma prediction based on longitudinal data and cell-free DNA signatures. J Hepatol 2023; 79:933-944. [PMID: 37302583 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhep.2023.05.039] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/31/2023] [Revised: 05/09/2023] [Accepted: 05/23/2023] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND & AIMS Current hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk scores do not reflect changes in HCC risk resulting from liver disease progression/regression over time. We aimed to develop and validate two novel prediction models using multivariate longitudinal data, with or without cell-free DNA (cfDNA) signatures. METHODS A total of 13,728 patients from two nationwide multicenter prospective observational cohorts, the majority of whom had chronic hepatitis B, were enrolled. aMAP score, as one of the most promising HCC prediction models, was evaluated for each patient. Low-pass whole-genome sequencing was used to derive multi-modal cfDNA fragmentomics features. A longitudinal discriminant analysis algorithm was used to model longitudinal profiles of patient biomarkers and estimate the risk of HCC development. RESULTS We developed and externally validated two novel HCC prediction models with a greater accuracy, termed aMAP-2 and aMAP-2 Plus scores. The aMAP-2 score, calculated with longitudinal data on the aMAP score and alpha-fetoprotein values during an up to 8-year follow-up, performed superbly in the training and external validation cohorts (AUC 0.83-0.84). The aMAP-2 score showed further improvement and accurately divided aMAP-defined high-risk patients into two groups with 5-year cumulative HCC incidences of 23.4% and 4.1%, respectively (p = 0.0065). The aMAP-2 Plus score, which incorporates cfDNA signatures (nucleosome, fragment and motif scores), optimized the prediction of HCC development, especially for patients with cirrhosis (AUC 0.85-0.89). Importantly, the stepwise approach (aMAP -> aMAP-2 -> aMAP-2 Plus) stratified patients with cirrhosis into two groups, comprising 90% and 10% of the cohort, with an annual HCC incidence of 0.8% and 12.5%, respectively (p <0.0001). CONCLUSIONS aMAP-2 and aMAP-2 Plus scores are highly accurate in predicting HCC. The stepwise application of aMAP scores provides an improved enrichment strategy, identifying patients at a high risk of HCC, which could effectively guide individualized HCC surveillance. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS In this multicenter nationwide cohort study, we developed and externally validated two novel hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk prediction models (called aMAP-2 and aMAP-2 Plus scores), using longitudinal discriminant analysis algorithm and longitudinal data (i.e., aMAP and alpha-fetoprotein) with or without the addition of cell-free DNA signatures, based on 13,728 patients from 61 centers across mainland China. Our findings demonstrated that the performance of aMAP-2 and aMAP-2 Plus scores was markedly better than the original aMAP score, and any other existing HCC risk scores across all subsets, especially for patients with cirrhosis. More importantly, the stepwise application of aMAP scores (aMAP -> aMAP-2 -> aMAP-2 Plus) provides an improved enrichment strategy, identifying patients at high risk of HCC, which could effectively guide individualized HCC surveillance.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Rong Fan
- Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Viral Hepatitis Research, Guangdong Provincial Clinical Research Center for Viral Hepatitis, Key Laboratory of Infectious Diseases Research in South China, Ministry of Education, Department of Infectious Diseases, Nanfang Hospital, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Lei Chen
- International Cooperation Laboratory on Signal Transduction, National Center for Liver Cancer, Eastern Hepatobiliary Surgery Institute/hospital, Shanghai, China
| | - Siru Zhao
- Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Viral Hepatitis Research, Guangdong Provincial Clinical Research Center for Viral Hepatitis, Key Laboratory of Infectious Diseases Research in South China, Ministry of Education, Department of Infectious Diseases, Nanfang Hospital, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Hao Yang
- Berry Oncology Corporation, Beijing, China
| | | | - Yunsong Qian
- Hepatology Department, Ningbo Hwamei Hospital, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Ningbo, China
| | - Hong Ma
- Liver Research Center, Beijing Friendship Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
| | - Xiaolong Liu
- The United Innovation of Mengchao Hepatobiliary Technology Key Laboratory of Fujian Province, Mengchao Hepatobiliary Hospital of Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, China
| | - Chuanxin Wang
- Department of Clinical Laboratory, The Second Hospital, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China
| | - Xieer Liang
- Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Viral Hepatitis Research, Guangdong Provincial Clinical Research Center for Viral Hepatitis, Key Laboratory of Infectious Diseases Research in South China, Ministry of Education, Department of Infectious Diseases, Nanfang Hospital, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Jian Bai
- Berry Oncology Corporation, Beijing, China
| | - Jianping Xie
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, Changsha, China
| | - Xiaotang Fan
- Department of Hepatology, First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi, China
| | - Qing Xie
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Ruijin Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China
| | - Xin Hao
- Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Viral Hepatitis Research, Guangdong Provincial Clinical Research Center for Viral Hepatitis, Key Laboratory of Infectious Diseases Research in South China, Ministry of Education, Department of Infectious Diseases, Nanfang Hospital, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China
| | | | - Song Yang
- Beijing Ditan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
| | - Yanhang Gao
- The First Hospital of Jilin University, Changchun, China
| | - Honglian Bai
- The Department of Infectious Disease, The First People's Hospital of Foshan, Foshan, China
| | - Xiaoguang Dou
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Shengjing Hospital of China Medical University, Shenyang, China
| | - Jingfeng Liu
- The United Innovation of Mengchao Hepatobiliary Technology Key Laboratory of Fujian Province, Mengchao Hepatobiliary Hospital of Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, China
| | - Lin Wu
- Berry Oncology Corporation, Beijing, China
| | - Guoqing Jiang
- Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, Clinical Medical College, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou, China
| | - Qi Xia
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Zhejiang University 1st Affiliated Hospital, Hangzhou, China
| | - Dan Zheng
- Department of Gastroenterology, The Central Hospital of Wuhan, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China
| | - Huiying Rao
- Peking University Hepatology Institute, Peking University People's Hospital, Beijing, China
| | - Jie Xia
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Southwest Hospital, Third Military Medical University (Army Medical University), Chongqing, China
| | - Jia Shang
- Henan Provincial People's Hospital, Zhengzhou, China
| | - Pujun Gao
- The First Hospital of Jilin University, Changchun, China
| | - Dongying Xie
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Sun Yat-Sen University 3rd Affiliated Hospital, Guangzhou, China
| | - Yanlong Yu
- Chifeng Clinical Medical School of Inner, Mongolia Medical University, Chifeng, China
| | | | | | - Yali Liu
- Beijing Youan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
| | - Aimin Sun
- Henan Institute of Medical and Pharmaceutical Sciences, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, China
| | - Yongfang Jiang
- Liver Disease Research Center, The Second Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, Changsha, China
| | - Yanyan Yu
- Department of Infectious Diseases, First Hospital of Peking University, Beijing, China
| | - Junqi Niu
- The First Hospital of Jilin University, Changchun, China
| | - Jian Sun
- Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Viral Hepatitis Research, Guangdong Provincial Clinical Research Center for Viral Hepatitis, Key Laboratory of Infectious Diseases Research in South China, Ministry of Education, Department of Infectious Diseases, Nanfang Hospital, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China.
| | - Hongyang Wang
- International Cooperation Laboratory on Signal Transduction, National Center for Liver Cancer, Eastern Hepatobiliary Surgery Institute/hospital, Shanghai, China.
| | - Jinlin Hou
- Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Viral Hepatitis Research, Guangdong Provincial Clinical Research Center for Viral Hepatitis, Key Laboratory of Infectious Diseases Research in South China, Ministry of Education, Department of Infectious Diseases, Nanfang Hospital, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China.
| |
Collapse
|
38
|
Lim YS, Chan HL, Ahn SH, Seto WK, Ning Q, Agarwal K, Janssen HL, Pan CQ, Chuang WL, Izumi N, Fung S, Shalimar, Brunetto M, Hui AJ, Chang TT, Lim SG, Abramov F, Flaherty JF, Wang H, Yee LJ, Kao JH, Gane E, Hou J, Buti M. Tenofovir alafenamide and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate reduce incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with chronic hepatitis B. JHEP Rep 2023; 5:100847. [PMID: 37771546 PMCID: PMC10522903 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhepr.2023.100847] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/23/2023] [Revised: 06/16/2023] [Accepted: 06/22/2023] [Indexed: 09/30/2023] Open
Abstract
Background & Aims Antiviral therapy may attenuate the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). We aimed to explore how tenofovir alafenamide (TAF) and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) affect HCC risk in patients with CHB. Methods The REACH-B, aMAP, and mPAGE-B models were utilized to assess HCC risk in patients with CHB from two global randomized-controlled trials evaluating the impact of TAF vs. TDF treatment. Standard incidence ratios (SIRs) were calculated using data from the REACH-B model as a ratio of observed HCC cases in the TAF- or TDF-treated patients vs. predicted HCC cases for untreated historical controls. Proportions of treated patients shifting aMAP and mPAGE-B risk categories between baseline and Week 240 were calculated. Results Of the 1,632 patients (TAF, n = 1,093; TDF, n = 539) followed for up to 300 weeks, 22 HCC cases developed. Those receiving TAF had an SIR that was lower compared to the SIR of individuals receiving TDF: 0.32 (p <0.001) vs. 0.56 (p = 0.06). In the general study population, individuals without cirrhosis at baseline had an SIR that was lower compared to the SIR of individuals with cirrhosis at baseline: 0.37 (p <0.001) vs. 0.58 (p = 0.15). Of the patients at low risk of HCC at baseline, the majority (97%) remained low risk by mPAGE-B and aMAP scoring at Week 240. Among those at medium or high risk at baseline, substantial portions shifted to a lower risk category by Week 240 (mPAGE-B: 22% and 42%; aMAP: 39% and 63%, respectively). Conclusions This evaluation provides evidence that treatment with TAF or TDF can reduce HCC risk in patients with CHB, particularly in patients without cirrhosis. Impact and implications Despite the substantial impact of HCC on long-term outcomes of patients with CHB, the differential risk of HCC development among those receiving treatment with TAF vs. TDF has not been well elucidated. Using three validated risk prediction models, we found that TAF is at least as effective as TDF in reducing HCC risk in patients with CHB. While TDF is well-studied in the context of HCC risk reduction, our novel findings underscore the effectiveness of TAF as a treatment option for patients with CHB. Clinical trial numbers NCT01940341; NCT02836249; NCT01940471; NCT02836236.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Young-Suk Lim
- Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea
| | | | - Sang Hoon Ahn
- Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | | | - Qin Ning
- Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Wuhan, China
| | - Kosh Agarwal
- Institute of Liver Studies, Kings College Hospital, United Kingdom
| | - Harry L.A. Janssen
- Toronto Western Hospital, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Division of Gastroenterology & Hepatology, Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Calvin Q. Pan
- NYU Langone Health, NYU Grossman School of Medicine, New York, NY, USA
| | - Wan Long Chuang
- Kaohsiung Medical University Hospital, Kaohsiung Medical University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
| | | | - Scott Fung
- Department of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada
| | - Shalimar
- All India Institute of Medical Sciences, New Delhi, Delhi, India
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Jia-Horng Kao
- National Taiwan University College of Medicine and National Taiwan University Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Edward Gane
- Auckland Clinical Studies, Auckland, New Zealand
| | - Jinlin Hou
- Nanfang Hospital of Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Maria Buti
- Hospital Universitario Vall d’Hebron, Barcelona, Spain
- CIBEREHD del Instituto Carlos III., Barcelona, Spain
| |
Collapse
|
39
|
Xu X, Jiang L, Zeng Y, Pan L, Lou Z, Ruan B. HCC prediction models in chronic hepatitis B patients receiving entecavir or tenofovir: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Virol J 2023; 20:180. [PMID: 37582759 PMCID: PMC10428529 DOI: 10.1186/s12985-023-02145-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/21/2023] [Accepted: 07/28/2023] [Indexed: 08/17/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Our study aimed to compare the predictive performance of different hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) prediction models in chronic hepatitis B patients receiving entecavir or tenofovir, including discrimination, calibration, negative predictive value (NPV) in low-risk, and proportion of low-risk. METHODS We conducted a systematic literature research in PubMed, EMbase, the Cochrane Library, and Web of Science before January 13, 2022. The predictive performance was assessed by area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), calibration index, negative predictive value, and the proportion in low-risk. Subgroup and meta-regression analyses of discrimination and calibration were conducted. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to validate the stability of the results. RESULTS We identified ten prediction models in 23 studies. The pooled 3-, 5-, and 10-year AUROC varied from 0.72 to 0.84, 0.74 to 0.83, and 0.76 to 0.86, respectively. REAL-B, AASL-HCC, and HCC-RESCUE achieved the best discrimination. HCC-RESCUE, PAGE-B, and mPAGE-B overestimated HCC development, whereas mREACH-B, AASL-HCC, REAL-B, CAMD, CAGE-B, SAGE-B, and aMAP underestimated it. All models were able to identify people with a low risk of HCC accurately. HCC-RESCUE and aMAP recognized over half of the population as low-risk. Subgroup analysis and sensitivity analysis showed similar results. CONCLUSION Considering the predictive performance of all four aspects, we suggest that HCC-RESCUE was the best model to utilize in clinical practice, especially in primary care and low-income areas. To confirm our findings, further validation studies with the above four components were required.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Xiaolan Xu
- State Key Laboratory for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Clinical Research Center for Infectious Diseases, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, The First Affiliated Hospital, National Medical Center for Infectious Diseases, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, 79 Qingchun Road, Shangcheng District, Hangzhou, 310000, China
- Center for General Practice Medicine, Department of Infectious Diseases, Zhejiang Provincial People's Hospital (Affiliated People's Hospital), Hangzhou Medical College, Hangzhou, 310000, China
| | - Lushun Jiang
- State Key Laboratory for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Clinical Research Center for Infectious Diseases, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, The First Affiliated Hospital, National Medical Center for Infectious Diseases, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, 79 Qingchun Road, Shangcheng District, Hangzhou, 310000, China
| | - Yifan Zeng
- State Key Laboratory for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Clinical Research Center for Infectious Diseases, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, The First Affiliated Hospital, National Medical Center for Infectious Diseases, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, 79 Qingchun Road, Shangcheng District, Hangzhou, 310000, China
| | - Liya Pan
- State Key Laboratory for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Clinical Research Center for Infectious Diseases, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, The First Affiliated Hospital, National Medical Center for Infectious Diseases, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, 79 Qingchun Road, Shangcheng District, Hangzhou, 310000, China
| | - Zhuoqi Lou
- State Key Laboratory for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Clinical Research Center for Infectious Diseases, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, The First Affiliated Hospital, National Medical Center for Infectious Diseases, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, 79 Qingchun Road, Shangcheng District, Hangzhou, 310000, China
| | - Bing Ruan
- State Key Laboratory for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Clinical Research Center for Infectious Diseases, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, The First Affiliated Hospital, National Medical Center for Infectious Diseases, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, 79 Qingchun Road, Shangcheng District, Hangzhou, 310000, China.
| |
Collapse
|
40
|
Yip TCF, Yurdaydin C. Improving prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis B by machine learning: Productive relationship of medicine with computer science. Liver Int 2023; 43:1626-1628. [PMID: 37452504 DOI: 10.1111/liv.15631] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/16/2023] [Revised: 05/22/2023] [Accepted: 05/24/2023] [Indexed: 07/18/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Terry C F Yip
- Medical Data Analytics Centre, Department of Medicine and Therapeutics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
- State Key Laboratory of Digestive Disease, Institute of Digestive Disease, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
| | - Cihan Yurdaydin
- Department of Gastroenterology & Hepatology, Koç University Medical School, Istanbul, Turkey
| |
Collapse
|
41
|
Lee HW, Kim H, Park T, Park SY, Chon YE, Seo YS, Lee JS, Park JY, Kim DY, Ahn SH, Kim BK, Kim SU. A machine learning model for predicting hepatocellular carcinoma risk in patients with chronic hepatitis B. Liver Int 2023; 43:1813-1821. [PMID: 37452503 DOI: 10.1111/liv.15597] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/24/2022] [Revised: 04/17/2023] [Accepted: 04/19/2023] [Indexed: 07/18/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Machine learning (ML) algorithms can be used to overcome the prognostic performance limitations of conventional hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk models. We established and validated an ML-based HCC predictive model optimized for patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) infections receiving antiviral therapy (AVT). METHODS Treatment-naïve CHB patients who were started entecavir (ETV) or tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) were enrolled. We used a training cohort (n = 960) to develop a novel ML model that predicted HCC development within 5 years and validated the model using an independent external cohort (n = 1937). ML algorithms consider all potential interactions and do not use predefined hypotheses. RESULTS The mean age of the patients in the training cohort was 48 years, and most patients (68.9%) were men. During the median 59.3 (interquartile range 45.8-72.3) months of follow-up, 69 (7.2%) patients developed HCC. Our ML-based HCC risk prediction model had an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.900, which was better than the AUCs of CAMD (0.778) and REAL B (0.772) (both p < .05). The better performance of our model was maintained (AUC = 0.872 vs. 0.788 for CAMD and 0.801 for REAL B) in the validation cohort. Using cut-off probabilities of 0.3 and 0.5, the cumulative incidence of HCC development differed significantly among the three risk groups (p < .001). CONCLUSIONS Our new ML model performed better than models in terms of predicting the risk of HCC development in CHB patients receiving AVT.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Hye Won Lee
- Department of Internal Medicine, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
- Institute of Gastroenterology, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
- Yonsei Liver Center, Severance Hospital, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Hwiyoung Kim
- Department of Biomedical Systems Informatics, Center for Clinical Imaging Data Science (CCIDS), Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
- Department of Artificial Intelligence, Yonsei University, College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Taeyun Park
- Department of Artificial Intelligence, Yonsei University, College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Soo Young Park
- Department of Internal medicine, Kyungpook National University School of Medicine, Daegu, Republic of Korea
| | - Young Eun Chon
- Department of Internal Medicine, CHA Bundang Medical Center, CHA University, Bundang, Republic of Korea
| | - Yeon Seok Seo
- Department of Internal Medicine, Korea University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Jae Seung Lee
- Department of Internal Medicine, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
- Institute of Gastroenterology, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
- Yonsei Liver Center, Severance Hospital, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Jun Yong Park
- Department of Internal Medicine, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
- Institute of Gastroenterology, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
- Yonsei Liver Center, Severance Hospital, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Do Young Kim
- Department of Internal Medicine, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
- Institute of Gastroenterology, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
- Yonsei Liver Center, Severance Hospital, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Sang Hoon Ahn
- Department of Internal Medicine, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
- Institute of Gastroenterology, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
- Yonsei Liver Center, Severance Hospital, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Beom Kyung Kim
- Department of Internal Medicine, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
- Institute of Gastroenterology, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
- Yonsei Liver Center, Severance Hospital, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Seung Up Kim
- Department of Internal Medicine, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
- Institute of Gastroenterology, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
- Yonsei Liver Center, Severance Hospital, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| |
Collapse
|
42
|
Roma K, Chandler TM, Dossaji Z, Patel A, Gupta K, Minacapelli CD, Rustgi V, Gish R. A Review of the Systemic Manifestations of Hepatitis B Virus Infection, Hepatitis D Virus, Hepatocellular Carcinoma, and Emerging Therapies. GASTRO HEP ADVANCES 2023; 3:276-291. [PMID: 39129946 PMCID: PMC11308766 DOI: 10.1016/j.gastha.2023.06.014] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/09/2023] [Accepted: 06/26/2023] [Indexed: 08/13/2024]
Abstract
Chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection affects about 262 million people worldwide, leading to over 820,000 deaths each year primarily due to cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. The World Health Organization has pledged to eliminate HBV as a health threat by 2030, but currently, no countries are on track to achieve this goal. One of the barriers to HBV elimination is stigma, causing shame, denial, self-isolation, self-rejection, and depression leading to those with chronic HBV less likely to get tested or seek treatment and more likely to conceal their infection. Other barriers include limited access to care and complicated and restrictive clinical practice guidelines. Increasing public and political efforts are necessary to raise awareness, increase access to care, and change screening and treatment guidelines. The current guidance of the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases (AASLD) recommends testing only if patients are considered at risk, but this has proven to be ineffective. We propose a simplified "test all and treat all" approach with a 5-line guideline for HBV infection. Universal screening and treatment of adults is cost-effective and can prevent transmission by effectively managing chronic HBV. All patients who are hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) positive with detectable HBV-DNA should receive treatment until HBsAg is undetectable for 12 months, as HBV-DNA transmission via blood transfusion can occur even at low viral loads of 16 copies/mL, and mother-to-child transmission is still a risk even with passive-active immunoprophylaxis. Furthermore, clinical outcomes after HBsAg clearance are significantly better than the clinical outcomes of those who remain HBsAg positive.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Katerina Roma
- Internal Medicine, Kirk Kerkorian School of Medicine at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, Nevada
| | - Toni-Marie Chandler
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Robert Wood Johnson Medical School, Rutgers Biomedical and Health Sciences (RBHS), New Brunswick, New Jersey
| | - Zahra Dossaji
- Internal Medicine, Kirk Kerkorian School of Medicine at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, Nevada
| | - Ankoor Patel
- Internal Medicine, Robert Wood Johnson Medical School, Rutgers Biomedical and Health Sciences (RBHS), Rutgers University, New Brunswick, New Jersey
| | - Kapil Gupta
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Robert Wood Johnson Medical School, Rutgers Biomedical and Health Sciences (RBHS), New Brunswick, New Jersey
| | - Carlos D. Minacapelli
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Robert Wood Johnson Medical School, Rutgers Biomedical and Health Sciences (RBHS), New Brunswick, New Jersey
- Center for Liver Diseases and Masses, Robert Wood Johnson Medical School, Rutgers Biomedical and Health Sciences (RBHS), New Brunswick, New Jersey
| | - Vinod Rustgi
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Robert Wood Johnson Medical School, Rutgers Biomedical and Health Sciences (RBHS), New Brunswick, New Jersey
- Center for Liver Diseases and Masses, Robert Wood Johnson Medical School, Rutgers Biomedical and Health Sciences (RBHS), New Brunswick, New Jersey
| | - Robert Gish
- Hepatitis B Foundation, Doylestown, Pennsylvania
| |
Collapse
|
43
|
Lee YT, Fujiwara N, Yang JD, Hoshida Y. Risk stratification and early detection biomarkers for precision HCC screening. Hepatology 2023; 78:319-362. [PMID: 36082510 PMCID: PMC9995677 DOI: 10.1002/hep.32779] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 19.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/18/2022] [Revised: 08/25/2022] [Accepted: 08/28/2022] [Indexed: 12/08/2022]
Abstract
Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) mortality remains high primarily due to late diagnosis as a consequence of failed early detection. Professional societies recommend semi-annual HCC screening in at-risk patients with chronic liver disease to increase the likelihood of curative treatment receipt and improve survival. However, recent dynamic shift of HCC etiologies from viral to metabolic liver diseases has significantly increased the potential target population for the screening, whereas annual incidence rate has become substantially lower. Thus, with the contemporary HCC etiologies, the traditional screening approach might not be practical and cost-effective. HCC screening consists of (i) definition of rational at-risk population, and subsequent (ii) repeated application of early detection tests to the population at regular intervals. The suboptimal performance of the currently available HCC screening tests highlights an urgent need for new modalities and strategies to improve early HCC detection. In this review, we overview recent developments of clinical, molecular, and imaging-based tools to address the current challenge, and discuss conceptual framework and approaches of their clinical translation and implementation. These encouraging progresses are expected to transform the current "one-size-fits-all" HCC screening into individualized precision approaches to early HCC detection and ultimately improve the poor HCC prognosis in the foreseeable future.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Yi-Te Lee
- California NanoSystems Institute, Crump Institute for Molecular Imaging, Department of Molecular and Medical Pharmacology, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California
| | - Naoto Fujiwara
- Liver Tumor Translational Research Program, Simmons Comprehensive Cancer Center, Division of Digestive and Liver Diseases, Department of Internal Medicine, University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas, Texas
| | - Ju Dong Yang
- Karsh Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, Los Angeles, California; Comprehensive Transplant Center, Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California; Samuel Oschin Comprehensive Cancer Institute, Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, Los Angeles, California
| | - Yujin Hoshida
- Liver Tumor Translational Research Program, Simmons Comprehensive Cancer Center, Division of Digestive and Liver Diseases, Department of Internal Medicine, University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas, Texas
| |
Collapse
|
44
|
Li J, Dong XQ, Cao LH, Zhang ZQ, Zhao WF, Shang QH, Zhang DZ, Ma AL, Xie Q, Gui HL, Zhang G, Liu YX, Shang J, Xie SB, Liu YQ, Zhang C, Wang GQ, Zhao H. Factors associated with persistent positive in HBV DNA level in patients with chronic Hepatitis B receiving entecavir treatment. Front Cell Infect Microbiol 2023; 13:1151899. [PMID: 37396307 PMCID: PMC10311917 DOI: 10.3389/fcimb.2023.1151899] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/26/2023] [Accepted: 05/12/2023] [Indexed: 07/04/2023] Open
Abstract
Introduction The clinical significance of persistent positive in Hepatitis B Virus (HBV) DNA level in patients receiving antiviral therapy is not well known. We investigated factors associated with persistent viremia (PV) in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) given 78-week entecavir. Methods A total of 394 treatment-naïve CHB patients who had undergone liver biopsy at baseline and week 78 of treatment were analyzed in this prospective multicentre study. We identified patients with PV (above the lower limit of quantification, 20 IU/ml) after 78 weeks of entecavir therapy. Stepwise, forward, multivariate regression analyses of specified baseline parameters were apllied to identify factors associated with PV. Futhermore, we assessed the incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in all patients using models of the risk of HCC development. Results Of the 394 patients, 90 (22.8%) still with PV after 78-week antiviral treatment. Factors associated significantly with PV (vs complete virological response, CVR) were HBV DNA level ≥8 log10 IU/mL (OR, 3.727; 95% CI, 1.851-7.505; P < 0.001), Anti-HBc level < 3 log10 IU/mL (OR, 2.384; 95% CI, 1.223-4.645; P=0.011), and HBeAg seropositivity (OR, 2.871; 95% CI, 1.563-5.272; P < 0.001). Patients with PV were less likely to have fibrosis progression and HCC development than those with the CVR. Of the 11 HBeAg-positive patients with HBV DNA level ≥8 log10 IU/mL and Anti-HBc level < 3 log10 IU/mL at baseline, 9 (81.8%) had persistent positivity in HBV DNA level and 0 had fibrosis progression at week 78 of treatment. Discussion In conclusion, HBV DNA level ≥8 log10 IU/mL, Anti-HBc level < 3 log10 IU/mL and HBeAg seropositivity at baseline contribute to PV in patients with CHB receiving 78-week antiviral treatment. In addition, the rate of fibrosis progression and the risk of HCC development in patients with PV were kept low. The complete protocol for the clinical trial has been registered at clinicaltrials.gov (NCT01962155 and NCT03568578).
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Jun Li
- Department of Infectious Disease, Center for Liver Disease, Peking University First Hospital, Beijing, China
| | - Xiao-Qin Dong
- Department and Institute of Infectious Diseases, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, Hubei, China
| | - Li-Hua Cao
- Department of Hepatology, The Third Hospital of Qinhuangdao, Qinhuangdao, China
| | - Zhan-Qing Zhang
- Department of Infectious Disease, Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Wei-Feng Zhao
- Department of Infectious Disease, Xinxiang Medical University Affiliated Third Hospital, Xinxiang, China
| | - Qing-Hua Shang
- Department of Hepatology, No.88 Hospital of Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA), Jinan, China
| | - Da-Zhi Zhang
- Department of Infectious Diseases, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, China
| | - An-Lin Ma
- Department of Infectious Disease, China-Japan Friendship Hospital, Beijing, China
| | - Qing Xie
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Ruijin Hospital, School of Medicine, Shanghai Jiaotong University, Shanghai, China
| | - Hong-Lian Gui
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Ruijin Hospital, School of Medicine, Shanghai Jiaotong University, Shanghai, China
| | - Guo Zhang
- Department of Gastroenterology, The People’s Hospital of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, Nanning, China
| | - Ying-Xia Liu
- Department of Infectious Diseases, The Third People’s Hospital of Shenzhen, Shenzhen, China
| | - Jia Shang
- Department of Infectious Diseases, The People’s Hospital of Henan, Zhengzhou, China
| | - Shi-Bin Xie
- Department of Infectious Disease, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun-Yat Sen University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Yi-Qi Liu
- Department of Infectious Disease, Center for Liver Disease, Peking University First Hospital, Beijing, China
| | - Chi Zhang
- Department of Infectious Disease, Center for Liver Disease, Peking University First Hospital, Beijing, China
| | - Gui-Qiang Wang
- Department of Infectious Disease, Center for Liver Disease, Peking University First Hospital, Beijing, China
- The Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China
- Department of Hepatology, Peking University International Hospital, Beijing, China
| | - Hong Zhao
- Department of Infectious Disease, Center for Liver Disease, Peking University First Hospital, Beijing, China
- Department of Hepatology, Peking University International Hospital, Beijing, China
| | | |
Collapse
|
45
|
Oh JH, Park Y, Goh MJ, Sinn DH, Ahn SB, Kang W, Gwak GY, Paik YH, Choi MS, Lee JH, Paik SW. Improved on-treatment fibrosis-4 during antiviral therapy and lower hepatocellular carcinoma risk in cirrhotic patients with hepatitis B. Sci Rep 2023; 13:9443. [PMID: 37296217 PMCID: PMC10256734 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-36668-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/05/2022] [Accepted: 06/07/2023] [Indexed: 06/12/2023] Open
Abstract
Normalization of serum alanine aminotransferase (ALT) levels is one of the goals of hepatitis B treatment. However, ALT levels in cirrhosis patients might be normal or mildly elevated regardless of ongoing inflammation. Therefore, we examined whether on-treatment ALT and other potential on-treatment indicators could be clinical surrogates of antiviral therapy in HBV-related cirrhosis. A total of 911 patients with HBV-related liver cirrhosis who started treatment with entecavir or tenofovir were analyzed. At 1 year of antiviral therapy, we evaluated 'ALT normalization', 'undetectable serum HBV DNA', 'fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index improvement', and 'serum HBeAg loss' as potential biomarkers for HCC development. During 6.6 (3.8-10.2) years of follow-up, 222 patients (24.3%) newly developed HCC. Undetectable HBV DNA levels at 1 year were observed in 667 patients (73.2%), and the HCC incidence was significantly lower in this population (adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 0.66, 95% CI 0.50-0.87). Improvement of the FIB-4 index (< 3.25) was associated with a lower risk of HCC in 478 patients with an elevated FIB-4 index (adjusted HR 0.59, 95% CI 0.55-0.82). However, there was no significant difference in HCC risk between those with and without normalization of ALT levels (p = 0.39) among those with elevated ALT levels or between those with and without HBeAg seroconversion (p = 0.55) among HBeAg-positive patients. Therefore, on-treatment FIB-4 levels at 1 year are clinically useful surrogates of antiviral therapy for HBV-related cirrhosis patients.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Joo Hyun Oh
- Department of Medicine, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, 81 Irwon-ro, Gangnam-gu, Seoul, 06351, Korea
- Department of Medicine, Nowon Eulji Medical Center, Eulji University School of Medicine, Seoul, 01830, Korea
| | - Yewan Park
- Department of Medicine, Kyung Hee University School of Medicine, Seoul, 02447, Korea
| | - Myung Ji Goh
- Department of Medicine, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, 81 Irwon-ro, Gangnam-gu, Seoul, 06351, Korea
| | - Dong Hyun Sinn
- Department of Medicine, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, 81 Irwon-ro, Gangnam-gu, Seoul, 06351, Korea.
| | - Sang Bong Ahn
- Department of Medicine, Nowon Eulji Medical Center, Eulji University School of Medicine, Seoul, 01830, Korea
| | - Wonseok Kang
- Department of Medicine, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, 81 Irwon-ro, Gangnam-gu, Seoul, 06351, Korea
| | - Geum-Youn Gwak
- Department of Medicine, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, 81 Irwon-ro, Gangnam-gu, Seoul, 06351, Korea
| | - Yong-Han Paik
- Department of Medicine, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, 81 Irwon-ro, Gangnam-gu, Seoul, 06351, Korea
| | - Moon Seok Choi
- Department of Medicine, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, 81 Irwon-ro, Gangnam-gu, Seoul, 06351, Korea
| | - Joon Hyeok Lee
- Department of Medicine, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, 81 Irwon-ro, Gangnam-gu, Seoul, 06351, Korea
| | - Seung Woon Paik
- Department of Medicine, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, 81 Irwon-ro, Gangnam-gu, Seoul, 06351, Korea
| |
Collapse
|
46
|
Giustini AB, Ioannou GN, Sirlin C, Loomba R. Review article: Available modalities for screening and imaging diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma-Current gaps and challenges. Aliment Pharmacol Ther 2023; 57:1056-1065. [PMID: 37038283 PMCID: PMC10792522 DOI: 10.1111/apt.17506] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/15/2022] [Revised: 09/17/2022] [Accepted: 03/24/2023] [Indexed: 04/12/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) incidence and mortality continue to rise worldwide. Society guidelines recommend HCC screening for patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) or cirrhosis. Unfortunately, HCC screening rates remain relatively low, and the performance characteristics of current screening modalities are suboptimal. AIM The aim of the study was to discuss the current state of HCC screening and imaging diagnosis utilising standard and emerging imaging modalities in addition to outlining areas of need and ongoing study. METHODS A review of the field was performed combining literature searches and expert opinion. RESULTS The development of the Liver Imaging Reporting and Data System (LI-RADS version 2018) algorithms have advanced and standardised the imaging diagnosis of HCC. While guidelines recommend US for HCC screening, the sensitivity of ultrasound is highly variable for the detection of early-stage HCC with sensitivity reports ranging from 40% to 80%. Biomarker-based scores such as GALAD and alternative imaging modalities such as abbreviated MRI are promising tools to improve HCC early detection. Patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and patients hepatitis C (HCV) who have achieved sustained virologic response (SVR) can present a clinical dilemma regarding the need for HCC screening. Biomarkers and elastography can aid in identification of individuals at high risk for HCC in these populations. CONCLUSIONS The LI-RADS system has standardised the imaging interpretation and diagnosis of HCC. Work remains regarding screening in special populations and optimization of screening modalities.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Abbey Barnard Giustini
- Division of Gastroenterology, Veterans Affairs Puget Sound Healthcare System and University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - George N. Ioannou
- Division of Gastroenterology, Veterans Affairs Puget Sound Healthcare System and University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Claude Sirlin
- Liver Imaging Group, Department of Radiology, University of California at San Diego, La Jolla, California, USA
| | - Rohit Loomba
- NAFLD Research Center, Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, University of California at San Diego, La Jolla, California, USA
| |
Collapse
|
47
|
Frison PR, Fraga RSD. PREDICTION OF HEPATOCELLULAR CARCINOMA THROUGH THE MODIFIED PAGE-B SCORE (MPAGE-B) IN PATIENTS WITH CHRONIC HEPATITIS B: IT SHOULD BE USED IN CLINICAL PRACTICE? ARQUIVOS DE GASTROENTEROLOGIA 2023; 60:172-177. [PMID: 37556742 DOI: 10.1590/s0004-2803.20230222-119] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/29/2022] [Accepted: 04/14/2023] [Indexed: 08/11/2023]
Abstract
•Chronic hepatitis B is a well-defined risk factor for hepatocellular carcinoma, and it is important to implement early detection programs for hepatocellular carcinoma in affected patients. In this study, the data found suggest that the mPAGE-B score can be applied to reduce the number of medical consultations in young patients infected with the hepatitis B virus and aged <40 years. Background - Persistent hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection can lead to hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) alone, that is, without the development of previous cirrhosis, which makes it of paramount importance to predict the risk patients with chronic hepatitis B have for developing HCC in the future. Thus, the mPAGE-B score was developed in order to predict very low risks of HCC, becoming an important score, since with low risk, patient surveillance can be spread out. Objective - The main objective of this study was to predict the risk of HCC according to the mPAGE-B score for patients with chronic hepatitis B, using antiviral therapy. Results - A cross-sectional, descriptive, quantitative, and retrospective study was conducted. Patients with chronic hepatitis B from the Hepatology Outpatient Clinic of the Federal University of the Fronteira Sul/HCPF in Passo Fundo, Rio Grande do Sul, covering a period of 12 years, were analyzed. Results - Of the 67 patients submitted to data collection, the mean age at diagnosis was 51.4 (±12.1) years, with a predominance of males (76.1%-n.51). All patients were HBeAg negative at diagnosis and 11 (16.4%) had cirrhosis. Regarding the antiviral regimen, 70.1% used tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) and 29.9% entecavir (ETV). According to m-PAGE-B stratification, 18 (25%) patients were classified as low-risk, 30 (41.7%) as intermediate-risk, and 19 (26.4%) as high-risk of developing HCC. The probability of developing HCC of these 67 patients in 3 years was 0.4% for low, 2.8% for moderate, and 9% for high risk. In 5 years, the probability was 0.5% for low, 4.4% for moderate, and 14% for high risk. Conclusion - This study demonstrates that the mPAGE-B score can be applied to decrease the number of consultations of patients with chronic hepatitis B in specialized outpatient clinics and, based on this population, patients aged ≤40 years may have one consultation per year instead of semi-annual.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
| | - Raquel Scherer de Fraga
- Faculdade de Saúde, Atitus Educação, Passo Fundo, RS, Brasil
- Hospital de Clínicas de Passo Fundo, Departamento de Hepatologia, Passo Fundo, RS, Brasil
- Universidade Federal da Fronteira Sul, Passo Fundo, RS, Brasil
| |
Collapse
|
48
|
Tan DJH, Setiawan VW, Ng CH, Lim WH, Muthiah MD, Tan EX, Dan YY, Roberts LR, Loomba R, Huang DQ. Global burden of liver cancer in males and females: Changing etiological basis and the growing contribution of NASH. Hepatology 2023; 77:1150-1163. [PMID: 36037274 DOI: 10.1002/hep.32758] [Citation(s) in RCA: 41] [Impact Index Per Article: 41.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/26/2022] [Revised: 08/18/2022] [Accepted: 08/20/2022] [Indexed: 12/08/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIM The etiology of liver diseases has changed in recent years, but its impact on the comparative burden of liver cancer between males and females is unclear. We estimated sex differences in the burden of liver cancer across 204 countries and territories from 2010 to 2019. APPROACH AND RESULT We analyzed temporal trends in the burden of liver cancer using the methodology framework of the 2019 Global Burden of Disease study. We estimated annual frequencies and age-standardized rates (ASRs) of liver cancer incidence, death, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by sex, country, region, and etiology of liver disease. Globally in 2019, the frequency of incident cases, deaths, and DALYs due to liver cancer were 376,483, 333,672, and 9,048,723 in males, versus 157,881, 150,904, and 3,479,699 in females. From 2010 to 2019, the incidence ASRs in males increased while death and DALY ASRs remained stable; incidence, death, and DALY ASRs in females decreased. Death ASRs for both sexes increased only in the Americas and remained stable or declined in remaining regions. In 2019, hepatitis B was the leading cause of liver cancer death in males, and hepatitis C in females. From 2010 to 2019, NASH had the fastest growing death ASRs in males and females. The ratio of female-to-male death ASRs in 2019 was lowest in hepatitis B (0.2) and highest in NASH (0.9). CONCLUSIONS The overall burden of liver cancer is higher in males, although incidence and death ASRs from NASH-associated liver cancer in females approach that of males.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Darren Jun Hao Tan
- Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine , National University of Singapore , Singapore
| | - Veronica Wendy Setiawan
- Department of Population and Public Health Sciences, Keck School of Medicine , University of Southern California , Los Angeles , California , USA
| | - Cheng Han Ng
- Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine , National University of Singapore , Singapore
| | - Wen Hui Lim
- Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine , National University of Singapore , Singapore
| | - Mark D Muthiah
- Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine , National University of Singapore , Singapore
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine , National University Health System , Singapore
| | - Eunice X Tan
- Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine , National University of Singapore , Singapore
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine , National University Health System , Singapore
| | - Yock Young Dan
- Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine , National University of Singapore , Singapore
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine , National University Health System , Singapore
| | - Lewis R Roberts
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology , Mayo Clinic , Rochester , Minnesota , USA
| | - Rohit Loomba
- NAFLD Research Center, Division of Gastroenterology , University of California at San Diego , La Jolla , California , USA
- Division of Epidemiology, Department of Family Medicine and Public Health , University of California at San Diego , San Diego , California , USA
| | - Daniel Q Huang
- Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine , National University of Singapore , Singapore
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine , National University Health System , Singapore
- NAFLD Research Center, Division of Gastroenterology , University of California at San Diego , La Jolla , California , USA
| |
Collapse
|
49
|
Nishida N, Ohashi J, Suda G, Chiyoda T, Tamaki N, Tomiyama T, Ogasawara S, Sugiyama M, Kawai Y, Khor SS, Nagasaki M, Fujimoto A, Tsuchiura T, Ishikawa M, Matsuda K, Yano H, Yoshizumi T, Izumi N, Hasegawa K, Sakamoto N, Mizokami M, Tokunaga K. Prediction Model with HLA-A*33:03 Reveals Number of Days to Develop Liver Cancer from Blood Test. Int J Mol Sci 2023; 24:ijms24054761. [PMID: 36902191 PMCID: PMC10003621 DOI: 10.3390/ijms24054761] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/13/2022] [Revised: 02/23/2023] [Accepted: 02/28/2023] [Indexed: 03/06/2023] Open
Abstract
The development of liver cancer in patients with hepatitis B is a major problem, and several models have been reported to predict the development of liver cancer. However, no predictive model involving human genetic factors has been reported to date. For the items incorporated in the prediction model reported so far, we selected items that were significant in predicting liver carcinogenesis in Japanese patients with hepatitis B and constructed a prediction model of liver carcinogenesis by the Cox proportional hazard model with the addition of Human Leukocyte Antigen (HLA) genotypes. The model, which included four items-sex, age at the time of examination, alpha-fetoprotein level (log10AFP) and presence or absence of HLA-A*33:03-revealed an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.862 for HCC prediction within 1 year and an AUROC of 0.863 within 3 years. A 1000 repeated validation test resulted in a C-index of 0.75 or higher, or sensitivity of 0.70 or higher, indicating that this predictive model can distinguish those at high risk of developing liver cancer within a few years with high accuracy. The prediction model constructed in this study, which can distinguish between chronic hepatitis B patients who develop hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) early and those who develop HCC late or not, is clinically meaningful.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Nao Nishida
- Genome Medical Science Project, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, Ichikawa 272-8516, Japan
- Department of Genomic Function and Diversity, Medical Research Institute, Tokyo Medical and Dental University, Tokyo 113-8510, Japan
- Correspondence: ; Tel.: +81-473723501
| | - Jun Ohashi
- Department of Biological Sciences, Graduate School of Science, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo 113-0033, Japan
| | - Goki Suda
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, North 15, West 7, Kita-ku, Sapporo 060-8638, Japan
| | - Takehiro Chiyoda
- Hepato-Biliary-Pancreatic Division, Department of Surgery, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo 113-8655, Japan
| | - Nobuharu Tamaki
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Musashino Red Cross Hospital, Musashino 180-8610, Japan
| | - Takahiro Tomiyama
- Department of Surgery and Science, Graduate School of Medical Sciences, Kyushu University, Fukuoka 812-8582, Japan
| | - Sachiko Ogasawara
- Department of Pathology, Kurume University School of Medicine, Kurume 830-0011, Japan
| | - Masaya Sugiyama
- Department of Viral Pathogenesis and Controls, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, Ichikawa 272-8516, Japan
| | - Yosuke Kawai
- Genome Medical Science Project-Toyama, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, Tokyo 162-8655, Japan
| | - Seik-Soon Khor
- Genome Medical Science Project-Toyama, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, Tokyo 162-8655, Japan
| | - Masao Nagasaki
- Human Biosciences Unit for the Top Global Course Center for the Promotion of Interdisciplinary Education and Research, Kyoto University, Kyoto 606-8507, Japan
| | - Akihiro Fujimoto
- Department of Human Genetics, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo 113-0003, Japan
| | - Takayo Tsuchiura
- Genome Medical Science Project, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, Ichikawa 272-8516, Japan
| | - Miyuki Ishikawa
- Genome Medical Science Project, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, Ichikawa 272-8516, Japan
| | - Koichi Matsuda
- Laboratory of Clinical Genome Sequencing, Department of Computational Biology and Medical Sciences, Graduate School of Frontier Sciences, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo 108-8639, Japan
| | - Hirohisa Yano
- Department of Pathology, Kurume University School of Medicine, Kurume 830-0011, Japan
| | - Tomoharu Yoshizumi
- Department of Surgery and Science, Graduate School of Medical Sciences, Kyushu University, Fukuoka 812-8582, Japan
| | - Namiki Izumi
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Musashino Red Cross Hospital, Musashino 180-8610, Japan
| | - Kiyoshi Hasegawa
- Hepato-Biliary-Pancreatic Division, Department of Surgery, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo 113-8655, Japan
| | - Naoya Sakamoto
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, North 15, West 7, Kita-ku, Sapporo 060-8638, Japan
| | - Masashi Mizokami
- Genome Medical Science Project, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, Ichikawa 272-8516, Japan
| | - Katsushi Tokunaga
- Genome Medical Science Project-Toyama, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, Tokyo 162-8655, Japan
| |
Collapse
|
50
|
Mao HD, Zheng SQ, Yang SH, Huang ZY, Xue Y, Zhou M. A new model predicts hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with HBV-related decompensated liver cirrhosis and long-term antiviral therapy: a prospective study. PeerJ 2023; 11:e15014. [PMID: 36992940 PMCID: PMC10042153 DOI: 10.7717/peerj.15014] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/10/2022] [Accepted: 02/16/2023] [Indexed: 03/31/2023] Open
Abstract
Background We aimed to evaluate the prediction values of non-invasive models for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development in patients with HBV-related liver cirrhosis (LC) and long-term NA treatment. Methods Patients with compensated or decompensated cirrhosis (DC), who achieved long-term virological response, were enrolled. DC and its stages were defined by the complications including ascites, encephalopathy, variceal bleeding, or renal failure. Prediction accuracy of several risk scores, including ALBI, CAMD, PAGE-B, mPAGE-B and aMAP, was compared. Results The median follow-up duration was 37 (28-66) months. Among the 229 patients, 9 (9.57%) patients in the compensated LC group and 39 (28.89%) patients in the DC group developed HCC. The incidence of HCC was higher in the DC group ( X 2 = 12.478, P < 0.01). The AUROC of ALBI, aMAP, CAMD, PAGE-B and mPAGE-B scores were 0.512, 0.667, 0.638, 0.663, 0.679, respectively. There was no significant difference in AUROC between CAMD, aMAP, PAGE-B and mPAGE-B (all P > 0.05). Univariable analysis showed that age, DC status and platelet were associated with HCC development, and multivariable analysis showed that age and DC status (both P < 0.01) were independent risk factors for HCC development, then Model (Age_DC) was developed and its AUROC was 0.718. Another model, Model (Age_DC_PLT_TBil) consisting of age, DC stage, PLT, TBil was also developed, and its AUROC was larger than that of Model (Age_DC) (0.760 vs. 0.718). Moreover, AUROC of Model (Age_DC_PLT_TBil) was larger than the other five models (all P < 0.05). With an optimal cut-off value of 0.236, Model (Age_DC_PLT_TBil) achieved 70.83% sensitivity, 76.24% specificity. Conclusion There is a lack of non-invasive risk scores for HCC development in HBV-related DC, and a new model consisting of age, DC stage, PLT, TBil may be an alternative.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Hao-dan Mao
- Institute of Hepatology, Changzhou Third People’s Hospital, Changzhou, Jiangsu, China
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Changzhou Third People’s Hospital, Changzhou Medical Center, Nanjing Medical University, Changzhou, Jiangsu, China
| | - Shu-qin Zheng
- Institute of Hepatology, Changzhou Third People’s Hospital, Changzhou, Jiangsu, China
| | - Su-hua Yang
- Institute of Hepatology, Changzhou Third People’s Hospital, Changzhou, Jiangsu, China
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Changzhou Third People’s Hospital, Changzhou Medical Center, Nanjing Medical University, Changzhou, Jiangsu, China
| | - Ze-yu Huang
- Institute of Hepatology, Changzhou Third People’s Hospital, Changzhou, Jiangsu, China
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Changzhou Third People’s Hospital, Changzhou Medical Center, Nanjing Medical University, Changzhou, Jiangsu, China
| | - Yuan Xue
- Institute of Hepatology, Changzhou Third People’s Hospital, Changzhou, Jiangsu, China
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Changzhou Third People’s Hospital, Changzhou Medical Center, Nanjing Medical University, Changzhou, Jiangsu, China
| | - Min Zhou
- Institute of Hepatology, Changzhou Third People’s Hospital, Changzhou, Jiangsu, China
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Changzhou Third People’s Hospital, Changzhou Medical Center, Nanjing Medical University, Changzhou, Jiangsu, China
| |
Collapse
|