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Chen YC, Tsai IT, Lai CH, Lin KH, Hsu YC. Risk Factors and Outcomes of Community-Acquired Carbapenem-Resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae Infection in Elderly Patients. Antibiotics (Basel) 2024; 13:282. [PMID: 38534717 DOI: 10.3390/antibiotics13030282] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/13/2024] [Revised: 03/12/2024] [Accepted: 03/18/2024] [Indexed: 03/28/2024] Open
Abstract
The increasing prevalence of carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae (CRKP) infections is a global concern. Elderly patients have a diminished immune response and functional reserve, and are thus more vulnerable to bacterial infection. This study aimed to investigate the risk factors and outcomes in elderly patients with community-acquired CRKP infections. We performed a retrospective cohort study in a tertiary medical center between 1 January 2021, and 31 December 2021. All elderly patients who visited the emergency department during this period with culture-positive K. pneumoniae were enrolled, and their baseline demographics, laboratory profiles, management strategies, and outcomes were recorded and analyzed. We identified 528 elderly patients with K. pneumonia infection, and the proportion of patients with CRKP infection was 10.2% (54/528). Recent intensive care unit (ICU) admission and prior carbapenem use are independent risk factors for CRKP infection in elderly patients. Compared to patients with carbapenem-sensitive K. pneumoniae infection, those with CRKP infection had a significantly higher risk of adverse outcomes, including ICU care, respiratory failure, septic shock, and 90-day mortality. CRKP infection was also identified as an independent risk factor for 90-day mortality. Clinicians should be aware of the increasing prevalence of CRKP infections in elderly patients and judiciously choose appropriate antibiotics for these patients.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yen-Chou Chen
- Department of Emergency Medicine, E-Da Hospital, I-Shou University, Kaohsiung 82445, Taiwan
| | - I-Ting Tsai
- Department of Emergency Medicine, E-Da Hospital, I-Shou University, Kaohsiung 82445, Taiwan
- School of Medicine, College of Medicine, I-Shou University, Kaohsiung 82445, Taiwan
| | - Chung-Hsu Lai
- School of Medicine, College of Medicine, I-Shou University, Kaohsiung 82445, Taiwan
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Internal Medicine, E-Da Hospital, I-Shou University, Kaohsiung 82445, Taiwan
| | - Kuo-Hsuan Lin
- Department of Emergency Medicine, E-Da Hospital, I-Shou University, Kaohsiung 82445, Taiwan
| | - Yin-Chou Hsu
- Department of Emergency Medicine, E-Da Hospital, I-Shou University, Kaohsiung 82445, Taiwan
- School of Medicine, College of Medicine, I-Shou University, Kaohsiung 82445, Taiwan
- School of Chinese Medicine for Post Baccalaureate, I-Shou University, Kaohsiung 82445, Taiwan
- School of Medicine for International Student, I-Shou University, Kaohsiung 82445, Taiwan
- Graduate Institute of Clinical Medicine, College of Medicine, Kaohsiung Medical University, Kaohsiung 80708, Taiwan
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Choi JW, Yang M, Kim JW, Shin YM, Shin YG, Park S. Prognostic prediction of sepsis patient using transformer with skip connected token for tabular data. Artif Intell Med 2024; 149:102804. [PMID: 38462275 DOI: 10.1016/j.artmed.2024.102804] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/21/2022] [Revised: 09/25/2023] [Accepted: 02/08/2024] [Indexed: 03/12/2024]
Abstract
Sepsis is known as a common syndrome in intensive care units (ICU), and severe sepsis and septic shock are among the leading causes of death worldwide. The purpose of this study is to develop a deep learning model that supports clinicians in efficiently managing sepsis patients in the ICU by predicting mortality, ICU length of stay (>14 days), and hospital length of stay (>30 days). The proposed model was developed using 591 retrospective data with 16 tabular data related to a sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score. To analyze tabular data, we designed the modified architecture of the transformer that has achieved extraordinary success in the field of languages and computer vision tasks in recent years. The main idea of the proposed model is to use a skip-connected token, which combines both local (feature-wise token) and global (classification token) information as the output of a transformer encoder. The proposed model was compared with four machine learning models (ElasticNet, Extreme Gradient Boosting [XGBoost]), and Random Forest) and three deep learning models (Multi-Layer Perceptron [MLP], transformer, and Feature-Tokenizer transformer [FT-Transformer]) and achieved the best performance (mortality, area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) 0.8047; ICU length of stay, AUROC 0.8314; hospital length of stay, AUROC 0.7342). We anticipate that the proposed model architecture will provide a promising approach to predict the various clinical endpoints using tabular data such as electronic health and medical records.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jee-Woo Choi
- Mediv Corporation, Cheongju-si, Chungcheongbuk-do, Republic of Korea; Chungbuk National University College of Medicine, Cheongju-si, Chungcheongbuk-do, Republic of Korea
| | - Minuk Yang
- Mediv Corporation, Cheongju-si, Chungcheongbuk-do, Republic of Korea; Chungbuk National University College of Medicine, Cheongju-si, Chungcheongbuk-do, Republic of Korea
| | - Jae-Woo Kim
- AI Research Center, Chungbuk National University Hospital, Cheongju-si, Chungcheongbuk-do, Republic of Korea; Chungbuk National University College of Medicine, Cheongju-si, Chungcheongbuk-do, Republic of Korea
| | - Yoon Mi Shin
- Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, Chungbuk National University Hospital, Cheongju-si, Chungcheongbuk-do, Republic of Korea; Chungbuk National University College of Medicine, Cheongju-si, Chungcheongbuk-do, Republic of Korea
| | - Yong-Goo Shin
- Department of Electronics and Information Engineering, Korea University, Sejong-si, Republic of Korea.
| | - Seung Park
- Department of Biomedical Engineering, Chungbuk National University Hospital, Cheongju-si, Chungcheongbuk-do, Republic of Korea; Chungbuk National University College of Medicine, Cheongju-si, Chungcheongbuk-do, Republic of Korea.
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Lan L, Zhou M, Chen X, Dai M, Wang L, Li H. Prognostic accuracy of SOFA, MEWS, and SIRS criteria in predicting the mortality rate of patients with sepsis: A meta-analysis. Nurs Crit Care 2023. [PMID: 38129945 DOI: 10.1111/nicc.13016] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/07/2023] [Revised: 11/08/2023] [Accepted: 11/20/2023] [Indexed: 12/23/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND In recent years, some studies classified patients with sepsis and predicted their mortality by using some evaluation scales. Several studies reported significant differences in the predictive values of several tools, and the non-uniformity of the cut-off value. OBJECTIVE To determine and compare the prognostic accuracy of Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score, Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS), and Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS) criteria in predicting the mortality of patients with sepsis. METHODS This study comprised of systematic literature review and meta-analysis according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses. We searched PubMed, Embase, Web of Science and Cochrane Library databases from their establishment to July 31, 2022. The research articles published in the index journals provide sufficient data (true positive, false positive, true negative, and false negative results) for patients with sepsis. The combined sensitivity and specificity of the 95% confidence interval (CI) were calculated using the bivariate random effect model (BRM). The hierarchical overall subject working characteristics (HSROC) curve was drawn to evaluate the accuracy of the overall prognosis. RESULTS Data of 55 088 patients from 32 studies were included in this meta-analysis. SOFA had an intermediate sensitivity of 0.73 (95% CI: 0.67-0.78) and a specificity of 0.70 (0.63-0.76). SIRS criteria had the highest sensitivity of 0.75 (0.66-0.82) and the lowest specificity of 0.40 (0.29-0.52). MEWS had the lowest sensitivity of 0.49 (0.40-0.59) and the highest specificity of 0.82 (0.78-0.86). CONCLUSIONS Among SOFA, MEWS, and SIRS criteria, SOFA showed moderate sensitivity and specificity for predicting mortality in patients with sepsis, the highest sensitivity of SIRS and the strongest specificity of MEWS for predicting mortality in patients with sepsis. The future research direction is to combine the relevant indicators of MEWS and SIRS to develop a measurement tool with high reliability and validity. RELEVANCE TO CLINICAL PRACTICE The review provides useful insights into the prognostic accuracy of different assessment tools in predicting mortality in sepsis patients, which will help clinicians choose the most appropriate tool for early identification and treatment of sepsis. The findings may also contribute to the development of more accurate and reliable prognostic models for sepsis.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lin Lan
- Department of Emergency Medicine,West China Hospital, Sichuan University/West China School of Nursing,Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
- Institute of Disaster Medicine, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
- Nursing Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu, China
| | - Meichi Zhou
- Nephrology and Urology Ward, West China Hospital,Sichuan University/ West China School of Nursing, Sichuan University Chengdu, Chengdu, China
| | - Xiaoli Chen
- Department of Emergency Medicine,West China Hospital, Sichuan University/West China School of Nursing,Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
- Institute of Disaster Medicine, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
- Nursing Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu, China
| | - Min Dai
- Department of Emergency Medicine,West China Hospital, Sichuan University/West China School of Nursing,Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
- Institute of Disaster Medicine, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
- Nursing Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu, China
| | - Ling Wang
- Department of Emergency Medicine,West China Hospital, Sichuan University/West China School of Nursing,Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
- Institute of Disaster Medicine, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
- Nursing Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu, China
| | - Hong Li
- Department of Emergency Medicine,West China Hospital, Sichuan University/West China School of Nursing,Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
- Institute of Disaster Medicine, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
- Nursing Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu, China
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Chu YC, Liu Y, Weng SF, Chen CW. Four Assessment Tools for Predicting Mortality and Adverse Events in Surgical Patients With Sepsis and Septic Shock: A Comparative Study. J Nurs Res 2023; 31:e296. [PMID: 37695681 DOI: 10.1097/jnr.0000000000000574] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 09/13/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The mortality rate for sepsis and septic shock in surgical patients is approximately 36%, which is higher than that of other medical patients. Predisposition, infection/injury, response, and organ dysfunction (PIRO) is currently the most widely used tool for assessing patients with surgical sepsis. However, it is not a standardized assessment tool for surgical patients in general. PURPOSE The purposes of this study were to (a) create a modified PIRO (mPIRO) that adds a count of platelets and does not include a body temperature reading; (b) test the sensitivity and specificity of the mPIRO for predicting mortality and adverse events among patients with surgical sepsis; and (c) compare the predictive accuracy of the mPIRO, sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA), quick SOFA, and PIRO tools. METHODS A retrospective observational cohort study was conducted. Two thousand fifty-five patient medical records were reviewed, with 103 identified as meeting the inclusion criteria. RESULTS Compared with the other tools, mPIRO ≥ 4 achieved better sensitivity (90.5%) in predicting mortality and high sensitivity (72%) and specificity (80%) in predicting adverse events. mPIRO was the most accurate predictor of mortality (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] = 0.83) among the tools considered. SOFA and mPIRO were the first and second most accurate predictor of adverse events, respectively, with respective AUC values of 0.86 and 0.82. CONCLUSIONS/IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE mPIRO, which employs an easy-to-use scoring system, is a valid assessment tool with good sensitivity and AUC for predicting both mortality and adverse events in patients with surgical sepsis. We recommend using mPIRO ≥ 3 as an indicator of potential adverse events.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yi-Chin Chu
- MSN, RN, Department of Nursing, Kaohsiung Medical University Hospital, Kaohsiung Medical University, Taiwan
| | - Yi Liu
- PhD, RN, Associate Professor, College of Nursing, Kaohsiung Medical University, Taiwan
| | - Shih-Feng Weng
- PhD, Associate Professor, Department of Healthcare Administration and Medical Informatics, Kaohsiung Medical University, Taiwan
| | - Chao-Wen Chen
- PhD, Associate Professor, Department of Emergency Medicine, Kaohsiung Medical University, Taiwan
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Kannan A, Jindal A. Predisposition, Insult, Response, and Organ Dysfunction: A Well-constructed Score! Indian J Crit Care Med 2023; 27:150. [PMID: 36865520 PMCID: PMC9973053 DOI: 10.5005/jp-journals-10071-24401] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/09/2022] [Accepted: 11/17/2022] [Indexed: 02/04/2023] Open
Abstract
How to cite this article: Kannan A, Jindal A. Predisposition, Insult, Response, and Organ Dysfunction: A Well-constructed Score! Indian J Crit Care Med 2023;27(2):150.
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Affiliation(s)
- Abinaya Kannan
- Department of Pediatrics, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Raipur, Chhattisgarh, India
| | - Atul Jindal
- Department of Pediatrics, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Raipur, Chhattisgarh, India,Atul Jindal, Department of Pediatrics, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Raipur, Chhattisgarh, India, Phone: +91 8224014667, e-mail:
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Machine Learning Model Development and Validation for Predicting Outcome in Stage 4 Solid Cancer Patients with Septic Shock Visiting the Emergency Department: A Multi-Center, Prospective Cohort Study. J Clin Med 2022; 11:jcm11237231. [PMID: 36498805 PMCID: PMC9737041 DOI: 10.3390/jcm11237231] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/18/2022] [Revised: 11/12/2022] [Accepted: 11/30/2022] [Indexed: 12/12/2022] Open
Abstract
A reliable prognostic score for minimizing futile treatments in advanced cancer patients with septic shock is rare. A machine learning (ML) model to classify the risk of advanced cancer patients with septic shock is proposed and compared with the existing scoring systems. A multi-center, retrospective, observational study of the septic shock registry in patients with stage 4 cancer was divided into a training set and a test set in a 7:3 ratio. The primary outcome was 28-day mortality. The best ML model was determined using a stratified 10-fold cross-validation in the training set. A total of 897 patients were included, and the 28-day mortality was 26.4%. The best ML model in the training set was balanced random forest (BRF), with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.821 to predict 28-day mortality. The AUC of the BRF to predict the 28-day mortality in the test set was 0.859. The AUC of the BRF was significantly higher than those of the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score and the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score (both p < 0.001). The ML model outperformed the existing scores for predicting 28-day mortality in stage 4 cancer patients with septic shock. However, further studies are needed to improve the prediction algorithm and to validate it in various countries. This model might support clinicians in real-time to adopt appropriate levels of care.
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Clerk AM. Sepsis in Intensive Care Unit: Which Score Predicts Better about Outcome? Indian J Crit Care Med 2022; 26:1072-1073. [PMID: 36876204 PMCID: PMC9983663 DOI: 10.5005/jp-journals-10071-24337] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/15/2022] [Accepted: 09/15/2022] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
Abstract
How to cite this article: Clerk AM. Sepsis in Intensive Care Unit: Which Score Predicts Better about Outcome? Indian J Crit Care Med 2022;26(10):1072-1073.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anuj M Clerk
- Department of Intensive Care, Sunshine Global Hospitals, Surat, Gujarat, India
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Dronamraju S, Agrawal S, Kumar S, Acharya S, Gaidhane S, Wanjari A, Jaiswal P, Bawiskar N. Comparison of PIRO, APACHE IV, and SOFA Scores in Predicting Outcome in Patients with Sepsis Admitted to Intensive Care Unit: A Two-year Cross-sectional Study at Rural Teaching Hospital. Indian J Crit Care Med 2022; 26:1099-1105. [PMID: 36876200 PMCID: PMC9983679 DOI: 10.5005/jp-journals-10071-24323] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/22/2022] [Accepted: 09/03/2022] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Introduction Though many scoring systems for prognostication of sepsis are available in the intensive care set-up, predisposition, insult, response, and organ dysfunction (PIRO) score helps to assess each patient and evaluate response to therapy. There are few studies comparing the efficacy of PIRO score with other sepsis scores. Hence, our study was planned to compare PIRO score with acute physiology and chronic health evaluation IV (APACHE IV) score and sequential (sepsis-related) organ failure assessment (SOFA) score in predicting the mortality of intensive care patients with sepsis. Materials and methods This prospective cross-sectional study was done in the medical intensive care unit (MICU) from August 2019 to September 2021 among patients above 18 years of age with the diagnosis of sepsis. Predisposition, insult, response, and organ dysfunction score, SOFA score, and APACHE IV score on admission and at day 3 were calculated and statistically analyzed in the terms of outcome. Results A total of 280 patients fulfilling the inclusion criteria were included in the study, the mean age was 59.38 ± 15.9 years. There was a significant association of PIRO score, SOFA score, and APACHE IV score on admission and at day 3 with mortality (p-value <0.05). Among all three parameters, the PIRO score on admission and at day 3 was the best predictor of mortality at cut-off points of >14 and >16 with 92.50% and 96.50% chances of correctly predicting mortality, respectively. Conclusion Predisposition, insult, response, and organ dysfunction score can be considered as a strong predictor of prognostication of patients with sepsis admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) and predict mortality. It should be routinely used as it is a simple and comprehensive score. How to cite this article Dronamraju S, Agrawal S, Kumar S, Acharya S, Gaidhane S, Wanjari A, et al. Comparison of PIRO, APACHE IV, and SOFA Scores in Predicting Outcome in Patients with Sepsis Admitted to Intensive Care Unit: A Two-year Cross-sectional Study at Rural Teaching Hospital. Indian J Crit Care Med 2022;26(10):1099-1105.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sameera Dronamraju
- Department of Medicine, Jawaharlal Nehru Medical College, Datta Meghe Institute of Medical Sciences, Wardha, Maharashtra, India
| | - Sachin Agrawal
- Department of Medicine, Jawaharlal Nehru Medical College, Datta Meghe Institute of Medical Sciences, Wardha, Maharashtra, India
| | - Sunil Kumar
- Department of Medicine, Jawaharlal Nehru Medical College, Datta Meghe Institute of Medical Sciences, Wardha, Maharashtra, India
| | - Sourya Acharya
- Department of Medicine, Jawaharlal Nehru Medical College, Datta Meghe Institute of Medical Sciences, Wardha, Maharashtra, India
| | - Shilpa Gaidhane
- Department of Medicine, Jawaharlal Nehru Medical College, Datta Meghe Institute of Medical Sciences, Wardha, Maharashtra, India
| | - Anil Wanjari
- Department of Medicine, Jawaharlal Nehru Medical College, Datta Meghe Institute of Medical Sciences, Wardha, Maharashtra, India
| | - Praraj Jaiswal
- Department of Medicine, Jawaharlal Nehru Medical College, Datta Meghe Institute of Medical Sciences, Wardha, Maharashtra, India
| | - Nipun Bawiskar
- Department of Medicine, Jawaharlal Nehru Medical College, Datta Meghe Institute of Medical Sciences, Wardha, Maharashtra, India
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Chao HY, Wu CC, Singh A, Shedd A, Wolfshohl J, Chou EH, Huang YC, Chen KF. Using Machine Learning to Develop and Validate an In-Hospital Mortality Prediction Model for Patients with Suspected Sepsis. Biomedicines 2022; 10:biomedicines10040802. [PMID: 35453552 PMCID: PMC9030924 DOI: 10.3390/biomedicines10040802] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/17/2022] [Revised: 03/16/2022] [Accepted: 03/21/2022] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
Background: Early recognition of sepsis and the prediction of mortality in patients with infection are important. This multi-center, ED-based study aimed to develop and validate a 28-day mortality prediction model for patients with infection using various machine learning (ML) algorithms. Methods: Patients with acute infection requiring intravenous antibiotic treatment during the first 24 h of admission were prospectively recruited. Patient demographics, comorbidities, clinical signs and symptoms, laboratory test data, selected sepsis-related novel biomarkers, and 28-day mortality were collected and divided into training (70%) and testing (30%) datasets. Logistic regression and seven ML algorithms were used to develop the prediction models. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was used to compare different models. Results: A total of 555 patients were recruited with a full panel of biomarker tests. Among them, 18% fulfilled Sepsis-3 criteria, with a 28-day mortality rate of 8%. The wrapper algorithm selected 30 features, including disease severity scores, biochemical parameters, and conventional and few sepsis-related biomarkers. Random forest outperformed other ML models (AUROC: 0.96; 95% confidence interval: 0.93–0.98) and SOFA and early warning scores (AUROC: 0.64–0.84) in the prediction of 28-day mortality in patients with infection. Additionally, random forest remained the best-performing model, with an AUROC of 0.95 (95% CI: 0.91–0.98, p = 0.725) after removing five sepsis-related novel biomarkers. Conclusions: Our results demonstrated that ML models provide a more accurate prediction of 28-day mortality with an enhanced ability in dealing with multi-dimensional data than the logistic regression model.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hsiao-Yun Chao
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Linkou Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, No. 5, Fu-Shin Street, Gueishan Village, Taoyuan 333423, Taiwan;
| | - Chin-Chieh Wu
- Clinical Informatics and Medical Statistics Research Center, Chang Gung University, Taoyuan 33302, Taiwan;
| | - Avichandra Singh
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Keelung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Keelung 20401, Taiwan;
| | - Andrew Shedd
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Baylor Scott and White All Saints Medical Center, Fort Worth, TX 76104, USA; (A.S.); (J.W.); (E.H.C.)
| | - Jon Wolfshohl
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Baylor Scott and White All Saints Medical Center, Fort Worth, TX 76104, USA; (A.S.); (J.W.); (E.H.C.)
| | - Eric H. Chou
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Baylor Scott and White All Saints Medical Center, Fort Worth, TX 76104, USA; (A.S.); (J.W.); (E.H.C.)
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Baylor University Medical Center, Dallas, TX 76104, USA
| | - Yhu-Chering Huang
- Division of Pediatric Infectious Diseases, Linkou Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, No. 5, Fu-Shin Street, Gueishan Village, Taoyuan 333423, Taiwan;
| | - Kuan-Fu Chen
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Linkou Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, No. 5, Fu-Shin Street, Gueishan Village, Taoyuan 333423, Taiwan;
- Clinical Informatics and Medical Statistics Research Center, Chang Gung University, Taoyuan 33302, Taiwan;
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Keelung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Keelung 20401, Taiwan;
- Community Medicine Research Center, Keelung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Keelung 20401, Taiwan
- Correspondence: ; Tel.: +886-3-328-1200 (ext. 2505)
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10
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Cardoso T, Rodrigues PP, Nunes C, Almeida M, Cancela J, Rosa F, Rocha-Pereira N, Ferreira I, Seabra-Pereira F, Vaz P, Carneiro L, Andrade C, Davis J, Marçal A, Friedman ND. Prospective international validation of the predisposition, infection, response and organ dysfunction (PIRO) clinical staging system among intensive care and general ward patients. Ann Intensive Care 2021; 11:180. [PMID: 34950977 PMCID: PMC8702585 DOI: 10.1186/s13613-021-00966-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/11/2020] [Accepted: 12/04/2021] [Indexed: 11/17/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Stratifying patients with sepsis was the basis of the predisposition, infection, response and organ dysfunction (PIRO) concept, an attempt to resolve the heterogeneity in treatment response. The purpose of this study is to perform an independent validation of the PIRO staging system in an international cohort and explore its utility in the identification of patients in whom time to antibiotic treatment is particularly important. Methods Prospective international cohort study, conducted over a 6-month period in five Portuguese hospitals and one Australian institution. All consecutive adult patients admitted to selected wards or the intensive care, with infections that met the CDC criteria for lower respiratory tract, urinary, intra-abdominal and bloodstream infections were included. Results There were 1638 patients included in the study. Patients who died in hospital presented with a higher PIRO score (10 ± 3 vs 8 ± 4, p < 0.001). The observed mortality was 3%, 15%, 24% and 34% in stage I, II, III and IV, respectively, which was within the predicted intervals of the original model, except for stage IV patients that presented a lower mortality. The hospital survival rate was 84%. The application of the PIRO staging system to the validation cohort resulted in a positive predictive value of 97% for stage I, 91% for stage II, 85% for stage III and 66% for stage IV. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC) was 0.75 for the all cohort and 0.70 if only patients with bacteremia were considered. Patients in stage III and IV who did not have antibiotic therapy administered within the desired time frame had higher mortality rate than those who have timely administration of antibiotic. Conclusions To our knowledge, this is the first external validation of this PIRO staging system and it performed well on different patient wards within the hospital and in different types of hospitals. Future studies could apply the PIRO system to decision-making about specific therapeutic interventions and enrollment in clinical trials based on disease stage. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13613-021-00966-7.
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Affiliation(s)
- T Cardoso
- Intensive Care Unit (UCIP) and Hospital Infection Control Committee, Hospital de Santo António, Oporto University Hospital Center, University of Porto, Largo Prof. Abel Salazar, 4099-001, Porto, Portugal.
| | - P P Rodrigues
- Department of Community Medicine, Information and Health Decision Sciences & CINTESIS, Faculty of Medicine, University of Porto, Rua Dr. Plácido Costa, s/n, 4200-450, Porto, Portugal
| | - C Nunes
- Intensive Care Unit and Hospital Infection Control Committee, Hospital de Bragança, Northeastern Local Health Unit, Av. Abade Baçal, 5301-852, Bragança, Portugal
| | - M Almeida
- Neurocritical Care Unit and Hospital Infection Control Committee, Hospital de São Marcos, Sete Fontes - São Vitor, 4710-243, Braga, Portugal.,Intensive Care Unit (UCIP), Hospital de Santo António, Oporto University Hospital Center, Largo Prof. Abel Salazar, 4099-001, Porto, Portugal
| | - J Cancela
- Internal Medicine Department, Hospital Pedro Hispano, Matosinhos Local Health Unit, R. Dr. Eduardo Torres, Sra. da Hora, Portugal
| | - F Rosa
- Internal Medicine Department, Hospital Pedro Hispano, Matosinhos Local Health Unit, R. Dr. Eduardo Torres, Sra. da Hora, Portugal
| | - N Rocha-Pereira
- Infectious Diseases Department, São João Hospital Center, Alameda Prof. Hernâni Monteiro, 4200-319, Porto, Portugal
| | - I Ferreira
- Internal Medicine Department, Hospital de Santo António, Oporto University Hospital Center, Largo Prof. Abel Salazar, 4099-001, Porto, Portugal
| | - F Seabra-Pereira
- Intensive Care Unit (UCIP), Hospital de Santo António, Oporto University Hospital Center, Largo Prof. Abel Salazar, 4099-001, Porto, Portugal.,Intensive Care Unit and Internal Medicine Department, Hospital da Prelada, Rua de Sarmento de Beires, 4250-449, Porto, Portugal
| | - P Vaz
- Internal Medicine Department and Hospital Infection Control Committee, Hospital de Bragança, Northeastern Local Health Unit, Av. Abade Baçal, 5301-852, Bragança, Portugal
| | - L Carneiro
- Internal Medicine Department, Hospital Pedro Hispano, Matosinhos Local Health Unit, R. Dr. Eduardo Torres, Sra. da Hora, Portugal
| | - C Andrade
- Internal Medicine Department, Hospital Pedro Hispano, Matosinhos Local Health Unit, R. Dr. Eduardo Torres, Sra. da Hora, Portugal.,Internal Medicine Department, Hospital de Santo António, Oporto University Hospital Center, Largo Prof. Abel Salazar, 4099-001, Porto, Portugal
| | - J Davis
- Department of Renal Medicine, Barwon Health, Geelong, VIC, 3220, Australia
| | - A Marçal
- Internal Medicine Department, Hospital Pedro Hispano, Matosinhos Local Health Unit, R. Dr. Eduardo Torres, Sra. da Hora, Portugal.,Internal Medicine Department, Hospital de Santo António, Oporto University Hospital Center, Largo Prof. Abel Salazar, 4099-001, Porto, Portugal
| | - N D Friedman
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Barwon Health, Geelong, VIC, 3220, Australia
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11
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Colussi G, Perrotta G, Pillinini P, Dibenedetto AG, Da Porto A, Catena C, Sechi LA. Prognostic scores and early management of septic patients in the emergency department of a secondary hospital: results of a retrospective study. BMC Emerg Med 2021; 21:152. [PMID: 34876007 PMCID: PMC8650550 DOI: 10.1186/s12873-021-00547-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/15/2021] [Accepted: 11/24/2021] [Indexed: 12/27/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) and other illness prognostic scores predict adverse outcomes in critical patients. Their validation as a decision-making tool in the emergency department (ED) of secondary hospitals is not well established. The aim of this study was to compare SOFA, NEWS2, APACHE II, and SAPS II scores as predictors of adverse outcomes and decision-making tool in ED. METHODS Data of 121 patients (age 73 ± 10 years, 58% males, Charlson Comorbidity Index 5.7 ± 2.1) with a confirmed sepsis were included in a retrospective study between January 2017 and February 2020. Scores were computed within the first 24 h after admission. Primary outcome was the occurrence of either in-hospital death or mechanical ventilation within 7 days. Secondary outcome was 30-day all-cause mortality. RESULTS Patients older than 64 years (elderly) represent 82% of sample. Primary and secondary outcomes occurred in 40 and 44%, respectively. Median 30-day survival time of dead patients was 4 days (interquartile range 1-11). The best predictive score based on the area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) was SAPS II (0.823, 95% confidence interval, CI, 0.744-0.902), followed by APACHE II (0.762, 95% CI 0.673-0.850), NEWS2 (0.708, 95% CI 0.616-0.800), and SOFA (0.650, 95% CI 0.548-0.751). SAPS II cut-off of 49 showed the lowest false-positive rate (12, 95% CI 5-20) and the highest positive predictive value (80, 95% CI 68-92), whereas NEWS2 cut-off of 7 showed the lowest false-negative rate (10, 95% CI 2-19) and the highest negative predictive value (86, 95% CI 74-97). By combining NEWS2 and SAPS II cut-offs, we accurately classified 64% of patients. In survival analysis, SAPS II cut-off showed the highest difference in 30-day mortality (Hazards Ratio, HR, 5.24, 95% CI 2.99-9.21, P < 0.001). Best independent negative predictors of 30-day mortality were body temperature, mean arterial pressure, arterial oxygen saturation, and hematocrit levels. Positive predictors were male sex, heart rate and serum sodium concentration. CONCLUSIONS SAPS II is a good prognostic tool for discriminating high-risk patient suitable for sub-intensive/intensive care units, whereas NEWS2 for discriminating low-risk patients for low-intensive units. Our results should be limited to cohorts with a high prevalence of elderly or comorbidities.
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Affiliation(s)
- GianLuca Colussi
- Division of Internal Medicine and Emergency Medicine Residency Program, Department of Medicine, University of Udine, 1st floor, Building n.8, Piazzale Santa Maria della Misericordia 1, 33100, Udine, UD, Italy.
| | - Giacomo Perrotta
- Division of Internal Medicine and Emergency Medicine Residency Program, Department of Medicine, University of Udine, 1st floor, Building n.8, Piazzale Santa Maria della Misericordia 1, 33100, Udine, UD, Italy
| | - Pierpaolo Pillinini
- Emergency Department, San Antonio Abate Hospital, ASUFC, 33028, Tolmezzo, Italy
| | | | - Andrea Da Porto
- Division of Internal Medicine and Emergency Medicine Residency Program, Department of Medicine, University of Udine, 1st floor, Building n.8, Piazzale Santa Maria della Misericordia 1, 33100, Udine, UD, Italy
| | - Cristiana Catena
- Division of Internal Medicine and Emergency Medicine Residency Program, Department of Medicine, University of Udine, 1st floor, Building n.8, Piazzale Santa Maria della Misericordia 1, 33100, Udine, UD, Italy
| | - Leonardo A Sechi
- Division of Internal Medicine and Emergency Medicine Residency Program, Department of Medicine, University of Udine, 1st floor, Building n.8, Piazzale Santa Maria della Misericordia 1, 33100, Udine, UD, Italy
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12
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Hu T, Qiao Z, Mei Y. Urine Output Is Associated With In-hospital Mortality in Intensive Care Patients With Septic Shock: A Propensity Score Matching Analysis. Front Med (Lausanne) 2021; 8:737654. [PMID: 34869431 PMCID: PMC8637111 DOI: 10.3389/fmed.2021.737654] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/07/2021] [Accepted: 10/20/2021] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Background: The relationship between urine output (UO) and in-hospital mortality in intensive care patients with septic shock is currently inconclusive. Methods: The baseline data, UO, and in-hospital prognosis of intensive care patients with septic shock were retrieved from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV (MIMIC-IV) database. By drawing receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and comparing the areas under the ROC curves (AUC) to determine the predictive value of UO for in-hospital mortality, and by drawing the Kaplan-Meier curves to compare the difference in in-hospital mortality between different groups of UO. Results: Before and after the propensity score matching (PSM) analysis, UO was always a risk factor for in-hospital mortality in patients with septic shock. The AUC of UO was comparable to the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) scoring system, while the AUC of combining UO and SOFA was greater than that of SOFA. The median survival time of the high-UO group (UO > 0.39 ml/kg/h, before PSM; UO > 0.38 ml/kg/h, after PSM) was longer than that of the low-UO group. Compared with the high-UO group, the hazard ratios (HR) of the low-UO group were 2.6857 (before PSM) and 1.7879 (after PSM). Conclusions: UO is an independent risk factor for septic shock. Low levels of UO significantly increase the in-hospital mortality of intensive care patients with septic shock. The predictive value of UO is comparable to the SOFA scoring system, and the combined predictive value of the two surpasses SOFA alone.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tianyang Hu
- Department of Cardiology, The Second Affiliated Hospital, Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, China
| | - Zhao Qiao
- Department of Cardiology, The Second Affiliated Hospital, Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, China
| | - Ying Mei
- Health Management Center, The Second Affiliated Hospital, Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, China
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Kumar S, Dronamraju S, Acharya S, Jaiswal P, Hulkoti V, Talwar D, Hepat S, Vs I, Shah D, Bhagawati J. COVID-PIRO (Predisposition, Insult, Response, Organ Dysfunction) Score: A Reliable Predictor of Outcomes in COVID-19 Patients Admitted in Intensive Care Unit. Cureus 2021; 13:e18960. [PMID: 34812327 PMCID: PMC8604422 DOI: 10.7759/cureus.18960] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 10/21/2021] [Indexed: 12/01/2022] Open
Abstract
Introduction To measure the severity of sepsis and pneumonia in adult patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), the PIRO model (predisposition, insult, response, organ dysfunction) was adopted as a scoring system. In this study, the PIRO model was modified to classify the severity of pneumonia in adults and predict mortality risk infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), admitted to a tertiary intensive care unit (ICU) in central rural India. Method This prospective, observational study was conducted in the Department of Medicine, in rural medical college at Wardha, Maharashtra, India from May 2020 to May 2021. Patients with reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) positive for COVID-19 and whose age was more than 18 years admitted in the intensive care unit were included in the study. Results A total of 240 patients were included in the analysis having mean age of 60.27 ± 15.3 years. Number of deaths were 115 out of 240 (48.3%). Mean ICU stay was 9.09 ± 6.34 days. PIRO score ≤14.5 had a mortality rate of 1.25% as compared to the group having PIRO>14.5 which had mortality of 27.5%, with a cure rate of 26.25% and 5% respectively in both groups (p = 0.0001). Conclusion COVID-PIRO modified PIRO score was a highly sensitive and specific model in predicting in-hospital mortality but it is moderately sensitive in predicting ICU stay.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sunil Kumar
- Department of Medicine, Jawaharlal Nehru Medical College, Datta Meghe Institute of Medical Sciences (Deemed to be University), Wardha, IND
| | - Sameera Dronamraju
- Department of Medicine, Jawaharlal Nehru Medical College, Datta Meghe Institute of Medical Sciences (Deemed to be University), Wardha, IND
| | - Sourya Acharya
- Department of Medicine, Jawaharlal Nehru Medical College, Datta Meghe Institute of Medical Sciences (Deemed to be University), Wardha, IND
| | - Praraj Jaiswal
- Department of Medicine, Jawaharlal Nehru Medical College, Datta Meghe Institute of Medical Sciences (Deemed to be University), Wardha, IND
| | - Vidyashree Hulkoti
- Department of Medicine, Jawaharlal Nehru Medical College, Datta Meghe Institute of Medical Sciences (Deemed to be University), Wardha, IND
| | - Dhruv Talwar
- Department of Medicine, Jawaharlal Nehru Medical College, Datta Meghe Institute of Medical Sciences (Deemed to be University), Wardha, IND
| | - Sanyukta Hepat
- Department of Medicine, Jawaharlal Nehru Medical College, Datta Meghe Institute of Medical Sciences (Deemed to be University), Wardha, IND
| | - Irhsad Vs
- Department of Medicine, Jawaharlal Nehru Medical College, Datta Meghe Institute of Medical Sciences (Deemed to be University), Wardha, IND
| | - Divit Shah
- Department of Medicine, Jawaharlal Nehru Medical College, Datta Meghe Institute of Medical Sciences (Deemed to be University), Wardha, IND
| | - Jahnabi Bhagawati
- Department of Medicine, Jawaharlal Nehru Medical College, Datta Meghe Institute of Medical Sciences (Deemed to be University), Wardha, IND
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14
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Caramello V, Macciotta A, Beux V, De Salve AV, Ricceri F, Boccuzzi A. Validation of the Predisposition Infection Response Organ (PIRO) dysfunction score for the prognostic stratification of patients with sepsis in the Emergency Department. Med Intensiva 2021; 45:459-469. [PMID: 34717884 DOI: 10.1016/j.medine.2020.04.012] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/17/2019] [Accepted: 04/09/2020] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE There are many different methods for computing the Predisposition Infection Response Organ (PIRO) dysfunction score. We compared three PIRO methods (PIRO1 (Howell), PIRO2 (Rubulotta) and PIRO3 (Rathour)) for the stratification of mortality and high level of care admission in septic patients arriving at the Emergency Department (ED) of an Italian Hospital. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS We prospectively collected clinical data of 470 patients admitted due to infection in the ED to compute PIRO according to three different methods. We tested PIRO variables for the prediction of mortality in the univariate analysis. Calculation and comparison were made of the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) for the three PIRO methods, SOFA and qSOFA. RESULTS Most of the variables included in PIRO were related to mortality in the univariate analysis. Increased PIRO scores were related to higher mortality. In relation to mortality, PIRO 1 performed better than PIRO2 at 30 d ((AUC 0.77 (0.716-0.824) vs. AUC 0.699 (0.64-0.758) (p=0.03) and similarly at 60 d (AUC 0.767 (0.715-0.819) vs AUC 0.709 (0.656-0.763)(p=0.55)); PIRO1 performed similarly to PIRO3 (AUC 0.765 (0.71-0.82) at 30 d, AUC 0.754 (0.701-0.806) at 60 d, p=ns). Both PIRO1 and PIRO3 were as good as SOFA referred to mortality (AUC 0.758 (0.699, 0.816) at 30 d vs. AUC 0.738 (0.681, 0.795) at 60 d; p=ns). For high level of care admission, PIRO proved inferior to SOFA. CONCLUSIONS We support the use of PIRO1, which combines ease of use and the best performance referred to mortality over the short term. PIRO2 proved to be less accurate and more complex to use, suffering from missing microbiological data in the ED setting.
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Affiliation(s)
- V Caramello
- Emergency Department and High Dependency Unit MECAU, AOU San Luigi Gonzaga, Orbassano, Turin, Italy.
| | - A Macciotta
- Department of Clinical and Biological Science, University of Turin, Orbassano, TO, Italy
| | - V Beux
- University of Turin, Italy
| | - A V De Salve
- Emergency Department and High Dependency Unit MECAU, AOU San Luigi Gonzaga, Orbassano, Turin, Italy
| | - F Ricceri
- Department of Clinical and Biological Science, University of Turin, Orbassano, TO, Italy; Unit of Epidemiology, Regional Health Service ASL TO3, Grugliasco, TO, Italy
| | - A Boccuzzi
- Emergency Department and High Dependency Unit MECAU, AOU San Luigi Gonzaga, Orbassano, Turin, Italy
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15
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Liu N, Chee ML, Foo MZQ, Pong JZ, Guo D, Koh ZX, Ho AFW, Niu C, Chong SL, Ong MEH. Heart rate n-variability (HRnV) measures for prediction of mortality in sepsis patients presenting at the emergency department. PLoS One 2021; 16:e0249868. [PMID: 34460853 PMCID: PMC8405012 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0249868] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/29/2021] [Accepted: 07/06/2021] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Sepsis is a potentially life-threatening condition that requires prompt recognition and treatment. Recently, heart rate variability (HRV), a measure of the cardiac autonomic regulation derived from short electrocardiogram tracings, has been found to correlate with sepsis mortality. This paper presents using novel heart rate n-variability (HRnV) measures for sepsis mortality risk prediction and comparing against current mortality prediction scores. This study was a retrospective cohort study on patients presenting to the emergency department of a tertiary hospital in Singapore between September 2014 to April 2017. Patients were included if they were above 21 years old and were suspected of having sepsis by their attending physician. The primary outcome was 30-day in-hospital mortality. Stepwise multivariable logistic regression model was built to predict the outcome, and the results based on 10-fold cross-validation were presented using receiver operating curve analysis. The final predictive model comprised 21 variables, including four vital signs, two HRV parameters, and 15 HRnV parameters. The area under the curve of the model was 0.77 (95% confidence interval 0.70–0.84), outperforming several established clinical scores. The HRnV measures may have the potential to allow for a rapid, objective, and accurate means of patient risk stratification for sepsis severity and mortality. Our exploration of the use of wealthy inherent information obtained from novel HRnV measures could also create a new perspective for data scientists to develop innovative approaches for ECG analysis and risk monitoring.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nan Liu
- Duke-NUS Medical School, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
- Health Services Research Centre, Singapore Health Services, Singapore, Singapore
- Institute of Data Science, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
- * E-mail:
| | - Marcel Lucas Chee
- Faculty of Medicine, Nursing and Health Sciences, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Mabel Zhi Qi Foo
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Singapore General Hospital, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Jeremy Zhenwen Pong
- Duke-NUS Medical School, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Dagang Guo
- Duke-NUS Medical School, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
- SingHealth Duke-NUS Emergency Medicine Academic Clinical Programme, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Zhi Xiong Koh
- Duke-NUS Medical School, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Singapore General Hospital, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Andrew Fu Wah Ho
- Duke-NUS Medical School, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Singapore General Hospital, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Chenglin Niu
- Duke-NUS Medical School, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Shu-Ling Chong
- Duke-NUS Medical School, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
- Department of Children’s Emergency, KK Women’s and Children’s Hospital, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Marcus Eng Hock Ong
- Duke-NUS Medical School, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Singapore General Hospital, Singapore, Singapore
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16
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Agor JK, Paramita NLPSP, Ozaltn OY. Prediction of Sepsis Related Mortality: An Optimization Approach. IEEE J Biomed Health Inform 2021; 25:4207-4216. [PMID: 34255639 DOI: 10.1109/jbhi.2021.3096470] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/08/2022]
Abstract
Sepsis is a condition that progresses quickly and is a major cause of mortality in hospitalized patients. Data-driven diagnostic and therapeutic interventions are essential to ensure early diagnosis and appropriate care. The Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score is widely utilized in clinical practice to assess septic patients for organ dysfunction. The SOFA score uses points between 0 and 4 to quantify the level of dysfunction in six organ systems. These points are determined based on expert opinion and not informed by data, thus their usefulness can vary among different medical institutions depending on the targeted use. In this study, we propose multiple strategies to adjust the SOFA score using mixed-integer programming to improve the in-hospital mortality prediction of septic patients based on Electronic Health Records (EHRs). We use the same variables and threshold values of the original SOFA score in each strategy. Thus, the proposed approach takes advantage of optimization and data analysis while taking into account the medical expertise. Our results demonstrate a statistically significant improvement (p<0.001) in the prediction of in-hospital mortality among patients susceptible to sepsis when implementing our proposed strategies. Area under the receiver operator curve (AUC) and accuracy values of 0.8928 and 0.8904 are achieved by optimizing the point values of the SOFA score.
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17
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Xantus GZ, Allen P, Norman S, Kanizsai PL. Mortality benefit of crystalloids administered in 1-6 hours in septic adults in the ED: systematic review with narrative synthesis. Emerg Med J 2021; 38:430-438. [PMID: 33858861 DOI: 10.1136/emermed-2020-210298] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/24/2020] [Revised: 02/13/2021] [Accepted: 03/20/2021] [Indexed: 12/29/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Based on the 2018 update of the Surviving Sepsis Campaign, the Committee for Quality Improvement of the NHSs of England recommended the instigation of the elements of the 'Sepsis-6 bundle' within 1 hour to adult patients screened positive for sepsis. This bundle includes a bolus infusion of 30 mL/kg crystalloids in the ED. Besides the UK, both in the USA and Australia, compliance with similar 1-hour targets became an important quality indicator. However, the supporting evidence may neither be contemporaneous nor necessarily valid for emergency medicine settings. METHOD A systematic review was designed and registered at PROSPERO to assess available emergency medicine/prehospital evidence published between 2012 and 2020, investigating the clinical benefits associated with a bolus infusion of a minimum 30 mL/kg crystalloids within 1 hour to adult patients screened positive for sepsis. Due to the small number of papers that addressed this volume of fluids in 1 hour, we expanded the search to include studies looking at 1-6 hours. RESULTS Seven full-text articles were identified, which investigated various aspects of the fluid resuscitation in adult sepsis. However, none answered completely to the original research question aimed to determine either the effect of time-to-crystalloids or the optimal fluid volume of resuscitation. Our findings demonstrated that in the USA/UK/Australia/Canada, adult ED septic patients receive 23-43 mL/kg of crystalloids during the first 6 hours of resuscitation without significant differences either in mortality or in adverse effects. CONCLUSION This systematic review did not find high-quality evidence supporting the administration of 30 mL/kg crystalloid bolus to adult septic patients within 1 hour of presentation in the ED. Future research must investigate both the benefits and the potential harms of the recommended intervention.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Penny Allen
- School of Medicine, Rural Clinical School University Tasmania, Launceston, Tasmania, Australia
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18
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Oduncu AF, Kıyan GS, Yalçınlı S. Comparison of qSOFA, SIRS, and NEWS scoring systems for diagnosis, mortality, and morbidity of sepsis in emergency department. Am J Emerg Med 2021; 48:54-59. [PMID: 33839632 DOI: 10.1016/j.ajem.2021.04.006] [Citation(s) in RCA: 26] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/23/2021] [Revised: 03/26/2021] [Accepted: 04/02/2021] [Indexed: 11/15/2022] Open
Abstract
PURPOSE This study was aimed to compare the quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA), Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS), and National Early Warning Score (NEWS) scoring systems for diagnosing sepsis and predicting mortality and morbidity. PATIENTS AND METHODS A prospective study was designed. qSOFA, SIRS, and NEWS scores were calculated at the admission. The diagnosis of sepsis was made with SOFA scoring initially. The morbidity and mortality of the patients were identified during follow-up. Also, the sensitivity, specificity, negative predictive value, and positive predictive value of three scoring systems were calculated. The scoring systems were compared with ROC analysis. RESULTS A total of 463 patients were evaluated. There were 287 (62.0%) patients diagnosed with sepsis, and septic shock occurred in 64 (13.8%) of patients. Seven-day mortality rate was 8.4% (n = 39), 30-day mortality rate was 18.1% (n = 84). The sensitivity for qSOFA, SIRS, and NEWS for diagnosis of sepsis was 23%, 77%, 58%, and specificity was 99%, 35%, 81% respectively. The sensitivity of the qSOFA, SIRS and NEWS scoring systems for mortality was 39%, 82%, 77% and specificity 91%, 29%, and 64%, respectively. AUROC values for mortality detected as NEWS = 0.772, qSOFA = 0.758, SIRS = 0.542. According to the ROC analysis, the SIRS system was significantly less useful than the qSOFA and NEWS system in the diagnosis of sepsis and mortality (p < 0.0001). CONCLUSION NEWS and qSOFA scoring systems have similar prognosis in both diagnosing sepsis and predicting mortality and both are superior to SIRS.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ali Fuat Oduncu
- Ege University, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Emergency Medicine, İzmir, Turkey.
| | | | - Sercan Yalçınlı
- Ege University, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Emergency Medicine, İzmir, Turkey
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19
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Ebrahimian A, Shahcheragh SMT, Fakhr-Movahedi A. Comparing the Ability and Accuracy of mSOFA, qSOFA, and qSOFA-65 in Predicting the Status of Nontraumatic Patients Referred to a Hospital Emergency Department: A Prospective Study. Indian J Crit Care Med 2021; 24:1045-1050. [PMID: 33384509 PMCID: PMC7751043 DOI: 10.5005/jp-journals-10071-23656] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Introduction This study was proposed to compare the ability and accuracy of modified sequential organ failure assessment (mSOFA), quick SOFA (qSOFA), and qSOFA-65 in predicting the status of nontraumatic patients referred to hospital emergency departments (EDs). Materials and methods This study was a prospective design that performed on the 746 nontraumatic patients referred to the ED. Each patient data was collected using a demographic questionnaire, mSOFA, qSOFA, and qSOFA-65 scales. Related variables of each scale were recorded based on patients’ medical records. Then, the outcome of each patient in the ED was followed up and recorded. The severity and specificity of each scale were estimated by the area under receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve at 99% confidence interval (CI). Results The mean and standard deviation of scores were as follows: mSOFA = 4.40 ± 2.58, qSOFA = 0.50 ± 0.70, and qSOFA-65 = 0.92 ± 0.96. Patients requiring admission to the intensive care unit (ICU) were identified with AUROC curve as follows: mSOFA = 0.882 (99% CI = 0.778–0.865); qSOFA = 0.717 (99% CI = 0.662–0.773); and qSOFA-65 = 0.771 (99% CI = 0.721–0.820), which showed that mSOFA has higher sensitivity and specificity than the other two scales in identifying patients requiring admission to the ICU. Conclusion All three scales were found to be reliable for identifying nontraumatic patients at risk of death and patients requiring admission to the ICU. However, since the time and data required to complete qSOFA and qSOFA-65 are much less than those of mSOFA, it is recommended that qSOFA and especially qSOFA-65 be used in ED to identify critically ill nontraumatic patients. How to cite this article Ebrahimian A, Shahcheragh SMT, Fakhr-Movahedi A. Comparing the Ability and Accuracy of mSOFA, qSOFA, and qSOFA-65 in Predicting the Status of Nontraumatic Patients Referred to a Hospital Emergency Department: A Prospective Study. Indian J Crit Care Med 2020;24(11):1045–1050.
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Affiliation(s)
- Abbasali Ebrahimian
- Nursing Care Research Center, Emergency Nursing Department, Semnan University of Medical Sciences, Semnan, Iran
| | | | - Ali Fakhr-Movahedi
- Nursing Care Research Center, Pediatric and Neonatal Nursing Department, Semnan University of Medical Sciences, Semnan, Iran
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Williams A, Griffies T, Damianopoulos S, Fatovich D, Macdonald S. Effect of age and comorbidity on the ability of quick-Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score to predict outcome in emergency department patients with suspected infection. Emerg Med Australas 2020; 33:679-684. [PMID: 33346938 DOI: 10.1111/1742-6723.13703] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/08/2020] [Revised: 12/01/2020] [Accepted: 12/04/2020] [Indexed: 01/03/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To determine if a combination of the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) and quick-Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) score is superior to qSOFA alone for predicting the outcome of ED patients with suspected infection. METHODS A prospective, observational single-centre study recruited consecutive adult patients who underwent blood culture collection in the ED and were admitted to hospital. The primary outcome was 28-day in-hospital mortality, and the secondary outcome a composite of mortality and/or ICU admission ≥72 h duration. The qSOFA and CCI were combined using logistic regression models, and the resulting area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) compared to that for qSOFA alone. RESULTS Of 551 patients recruited, 18 (3%) died and 27 (5%) attained the composite outcome. The AUROC for qSOFA/CCI versus qSOFA for the primary outcome is 0.79 versus 0.72 (95% confidence interval 0.71-0.88 vs 0.62-0.82, P = 0.055) and 0.80 versus 0.76 (95% confidence interval 0.73-0.86 vs 0.68-0.84, P = 0.048). Deaths among patients not admitted to ICU (12/495) accounted for most of the overall differences in AUROC. CONCLUSIONS This generates the hypothesis that age and comorbid disease status augment the qSOFA score for predicting adverse outcome among patients with suspected infection in the ED. The results may reflect the predominance of these factors in determining suitability for admission to ICU. Reported limitations of qSOFA to detect the risk of adverse outcome may reflect the influence of unmeasured patient factors.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alex Williams
- Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, The University of Western Australia, Perth, Western Australia, Australia
| | - Thomas Griffies
- Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, The University of Western Australia, Perth, Western Australia, Australia
| | - Sophie Damianopoulos
- Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, The University of Western Australia, Perth, Western Australia, Australia.,Emergency Department, Royal Perth Hospital, Perth, Western Australia, Australia
| | - Daniel Fatovich
- Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, The University of Western Australia, Perth, Western Australia, Australia.,Emergency Department, Royal Perth Hospital, Perth, Western Australia, Australia.,Centre for Clinical Research in Emergency Medicine, Harry Perkins Institute of Medical Research, Royal Perth Hospital, Perth, Western Australia, Australia
| | - Stephen Macdonald
- Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, The University of Western Australia, Perth, Western Australia, Australia.,Emergency Department, Royal Perth Hospital, Perth, Western Australia, Australia.,Centre for Clinical Research in Emergency Medicine, Harry Perkins Institute of Medical Research, Royal Perth Hospital, Perth, Western Australia, Australia
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Rothrock SG, Cassidy DD, Barneck M, Schinkel M, Guetschow B, Myburgh C, Nguyen L, Earwood R, Nanayakkara PW, Nannan Panday RS, Briscoe JG. Outcome of Immediate Versus Early Antibiotics in Severe Sepsis and Septic Shock: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis. Ann Emerg Med 2020; 76:427-441. [DOI: 10.1016/j.annemergmed.2020.04.042] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/27/2020] [Revised: 04/20/2020] [Accepted: 04/27/2020] [Indexed: 01/01/2023]
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22
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Liu S, He C, He W, Jiang T. Lactate-enhanced-qSOFA (LqSOFA) score is superior to the other four rapid scoring tools in predicting in-hospital mortality rate of the sepsis patients. ANNALS OF TRANSLATIONAL MEDICINE 2020; 8:1013. [PMID: 32953813 PMCID: PMC7475464 DOI: 10.21037/atm-20-5410] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/05/2023]
Abstract
Background The rising prevalence of early therapy for sepsis has led to the demand for rapid risk-stratification tools that can estimate the risk of in-hospital mortality for sepsis patients and the need for intensive care unit (ICU) admission. A robust risk-stratification tool is crucial for in-time sepsis treatment. This study aimed to compare the abilities of five rapid scoring systems, i.e., LqSOFA score, qSOFA score, SIRS, MEDS, and MEWS, in predicting the mortality in hospital and ICU admission for sepsis patients. Methods A retrospective observational clinical study was conducted in West China Hospital. Our cases included all patients admitted to the hospital with a diagnosis of sepsis (sepsis-3). We calculated five rapid prediction scores for the enrolled cases. We then compared each rapid score’s ability to predict in-hospital mortality and ICU admission. Results A total of 821 of mixed sepsis patients by sepsis-3 definition were included. The all-cause hospital mortality rate was 21.1%. The LqSOFA score presented the most significant discrimination with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.751. The AUC of the LqSOFA score for mortality in the hospital was significantly higher than qSOFA (AUC 0.717), SIRS (AUC 0.704), MEDS (AUC 0.670), and MEWS (AUC 0.685). Conclusions LqSOFA is a superior prognostic tool for predicting mortality in the hospital. It may provide more exact information for hospital mortality than the other 4 rapid scores in treating sepsis patients.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sijia Liu
- Department of Rehabilitation Medicine, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
| | - Chengqi He
- Department of Rehabilitation Medicine, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
| | - Weilue He
- Department of Biomedical Engineering, Michigan Technological University, Houghton, Michigan, USA
| | - Tian Jiang
- Editorial Board of Journal of Sichuan University (Medical Science Edition), Chengdu, China
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23
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Qin W, Zhang X, Yang L, Li Y, Yang S, Li X, Hu W. Predictive value of the sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score for prognosis in patients with severe acute ischemic stroke: a retrospective study. J Int Med Res 2020; 48:300060520950103. [PMID: 32865055 PMCID: PMC7469749 DOI: 10.1177/0300060520950103] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/22/2020] [Accepted: 07/24/2020] [Indexed: 01/25/2023] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To identify the risk factors for early death and determine the predictive value of the sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score for prognosis of severe acute ischemic stroke (AIS). METHODS A total of 110 patients with severe AIS were enrolled and divided into the non-survivor (n = 34) and survivor groups (n = 76). Logistic regression analysis was conducted to identify risk factors for early death, while the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve was used to determine the predictive effect of the SOFA score on prognosis. RESULTS Logistic regression analysis showed that urinary tract infection (odds ratio [OR] = 17.364, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.903-158.427), mechanical ventilation (OR = 1.754, 95% CI: 1.648-2.219), and osmotic therapy (OR = 2.835, 95% CI: 1.871-5.102) were significantly correlated with early death of severe AIS. ROC curve analysis of the area under the curve after hospitalization showed that the maximum SOFA and ΔSOFA scores exceeded 0.7. CONCLUSION Our study shows that urinary tract infection, mechanical ventilation, and osmotic therapy are risk factors for early death of severe AIS. The SOFA score has good predictive value for prognosis of severe AIS. These findings may provide a guideline for improving clinical outcome.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wei Qin
- Department of Neurology, Beijing Chao-Yang Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
| | - Xiaoyu Zhang
- Department of Neurology, Shandong Provincial Qianfoshan Hospital, Jinan, China
| | - Lei Yang
- Department of Neurology, Beijing Chao-Yang Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
| | - Yue Li
- Department of Neurology, Beijing Chao-Yang Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
| | - Shuna Yang
- Department of Neurology, Beijing Chao-Yang Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
| | - Xuanting Li
- Department of Neurology, Beijing Chao-Yang Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
| | - Wenli Hu
- Department of Neurology, Beijing Chao-Yang Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
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24
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Liljedahl Prytz K, Prag M, Fredlund H, Magnuson A, Sundqvist M, Källman J. Antibiotic treatment with one single dose of gentamicin at admittance in addition to a β-lactam antibiotic in the treatment of community-acquired bloodstream infection with sepsis. PLoS One 2020; 15:e0236864. [PMID: 32730359 PMCID: PMC7392313 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0236864] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/19/2019] [Accepted: 07/16/2020] [Indexed: 12/29/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Combination therapy in the treatment of sepsis, especially the value of combining a β-Lactam antibiotic with an aminoglycoside, has been discussed. This retrospective cohort study including patients with sepsis or septic shock aimed to investigate whether one single dose of gentamicin at admittance (SGA) added to β-Lactam antibiotic could result in a lower risk of mortality than β-Lactam monotherapy, without exposing the patient to the risk of nephrotoxicity. Methods and findings All patients with positive blood cultures were evaluated for participation (n = 1318). After retrospective medical chart review, a group of patients with community-acquired sepsis with positive blood cultures who received β-Lactam antibiotic with or without the addition of SGA (n = 399) were included for the analysis. Mean age was 74.6 yrs. (range 19–98) with 216 (54%) males. Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score (SOFA score) median was 3 (interquartile range [IQR] 2–5) and the median Charlson Comorbidity Index for the whole group was 2 (IQR 1–3). Sixty-seven (67) patients (17%) had septic shock. The 28-day mortality in the combination therapy group was 10% (20 of 197) and in the monotherapy group 22% (45 of 202), adjusted HR 3.5 (95% CI (1.9–6.2), p = < 0.001. No significant difference in incidence of acute kidney injury (AKI) was detected. Conclusion This retrospective observational study including patients with community-acquired sepsis or septic shock and positive blood cultures, who meet Sepsis-3 criteria, shows that the addition of one single dose of gentamicin to β-lactam treatment at admittance was associated with a decreased risk of mortality and was not associated with AKI. This antibiotic regime may be an alternative to broad-spectrum antibiotic treatment of community-acquired sepsis. Further prospective studies are warranted to confirm these results.
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Affiliation(s)
- Karolina Liljedahl Prytz
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Faculty of Medicine and Health, Örebro University, Örebro, Sweden
- * E-mail:
| | - Mårten Prag
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Faculty of Medicine and Health, Örebro University, Örebro, Sweden
| | - Hans Fredlund
- Department of Clinical Microbiology, Faculty of Medicine and Health, Örebro University, Örebro, Sweden
| | - Anders Magnuson
- Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Medical Sciences, Örebro University, Örebro, Sweden
| | - Martin Sundqvist
- Department of Clinical Microbiology, Faculty of Medicine and Health, Örebro University, Örebro, Sweden
| | - Jan Källman
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Faculty of Medicine and Health, Örebro University, Örebro, Sweden
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Caramello V, Macciotta A, Beux V, De Salve AV, Ricceri F, Boccuzzi A. Validation of the Predisposition Infection Response Organ (PIRO) dysfunction score for the prognostic stratification of patients with sepsis in the Emergency Department. Med Intensiva 2020; 45:S0210-5691(20)30163-7. [PMID: 32591242 DOI: 10.1016/j.medin.2020.04.022] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/17/2019] [Revised: 02/13/2020] [Accepted: 04/09/2020] [Indexed: 01/05/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE There are many different methods for computing the Predisposition Infection Response Organ (PIRO) dysfunction score. We compared three PIRO methods (PIRO1 (Howell), PIRO2 (Rubulotta) and PIRO3 (Rathour)) for the stratification of mortality and high level of care admission in septic patients arriving at the Emergency Department (ED) of an Italian Hospital. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS We prospectively collected clinical data of 470 patients admitted due to infection in the ED to compute PIRO according to three different methods. We tested PIRO variables for the prediction of mortality in the univariate analysis. Calculation and comparison were made of the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) for the three PIRO methods, SOFA and qSOFA. RESULTS Most of the variables included in PIRO were related to mortality in the univariate analysis. Increased PIRO scores were related to higher mortality. In relation to mortality, PIRO 1 performed better than PIRO2 at 30 d ((AUC 0.77 (0.716-0.824) vs. AUC 0.699 (0.64-0.758) (p=0.03) and similarly at 60 d (AUC 0.767 (0.715-0.819) vs AUC 0.709 (0.656-0.763)(p=0.55)); PIRO1 performed similarly to PIRO3 (AUC 0.765 (0.71-0.82) at 30 d, AUC 0.754 (0.701-0.806) at 60 d, p=ns). Both PIRO1 and PIRO3 were as good as SOFA referred to mortality (AUC 0.758 (0.699, 0.816) at 30 d vs. AUC 0.738 (0.681, 0.795) at 60 d; p=ns). For high level of care admission, PIRO proved inferior to SOFA. CONCLUSIONS We support the use of PIRO1, which combines ease of use and the best performance referred to mortality over the short term. PIRO2 proved to be less accurate and more complex to use, suffering from missing microbiological data in the ED setting.
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Affiliation(s)
- V Caramello
- Emergency Department and High Dependency Unit MECAU, AOU San Luigi Gonzaga, Orbassano, Turin, Italy.
| | - A Macciotta
- Department of Clinical and Biological Science, University of Turin, Orbassano, TO, Italy
| | - V Beux
- University of Turin, Italy
| | - A V De Salve
- Emergency Department and High Dependency Unit MECAU, AOU San Luigi Gonzaga, Orbassano, Turin, Italy
| | - F Ricceri
- Department of Clinical and Biological Science, University of Turin, Orbassano, TO, Italy; Unit of Epidemiology, Regional Health Service ASL TO3, Grugliasco, TO, Italy
| | - A Boccuzzi
- Emergency Department and High Dependency Unit MECAU, AOU San Luigi Gonzaga, Orbassano, Turin, Italy
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López-Medina DC, Henao-Perez M, Arenas-Andrade J, Hinestroza-Marín ED, Jaimes-Barragán FA, Quirós-Gómez OI. Epidemiology of septic shock in prehospital medical services in five Colombian cities. Rev Bras Ter Intensiva 2020; 32:28-36. [PMID: 32401984 PMCID: PMC7206937 DOI: 10.5935/0103-507x.20200006] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/14/2019] [Accepted: 09/01/2019] [Indexed: 11/25/2022] Open
Abstract
Objective To explore the association between demographic and clinical factors and the presentation of septic shock in patients treated by prehospital emergency services in five Colombian cities between 2015 and 2016. Methods This was a cross-sectional study with retrospective data collection. Clinical and demographic data were collected from the medical records of patients diagnosed with sepsis who received prehospital care in five Colombian cities in 2015 and 2016. The diagnosis of septic shock was checked in 20% of the cases, generating two analyzed scenarios: observed and verified. Data were analyzed using the chi-square test, Student’s t test and an adjusted logistic regression model. Covariates with p < 0.05 were considered significant. Results There was a higher frequency of septic shock in women (62.6%) and in individuals older than 80 years (64.5%), but these were not differentiating factors for septic shock. The most common source of infection was the urinary tract. In the observed scenario, age over 60 (prevalence ratio (PR): 3.22; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.45 - 35.01) and history of cancer (PR: 1.20; 95%CI: 1.2 - 12.87) were the characteristics associated with septic shock, whereas in the verified scenario, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (PR: 1.99; 95%CI: 1.26 - 7.14), history of cancer (PR: 1.15; 95%CI: 1.11 - 6.62) and presence of hypovolemia (PR: 1.41; 95%CI: 1.02 - 5.50) were observed. Conclusion The most important risk factors for septic shock in prehospital care patients in five Colombian cities were oncological and pulmonary diseases and hypovolemia.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Marcela Henao-Perez
- Facultad de Medicina, Universidad Cooperativa de Colombia, Antioquia, Colombia
| | | | | | | | - Oscar Iván Quirós-Gómez
- División de Salud Pública, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad CES - Medellín, Antioquia, Colombia
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27
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Comparison of severity score models based on different sepsis definitions to predict in-hospital mortality among sepsis patients in the Intensive Care Unit. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2020. [DOI: 10.1016/j.medine.2018.12.007] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/29/2022]
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28
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Zhang G, Zhang K, Zheng X, Cui W, Hong Y, Zhang Z. Performance of the MEDS score in predicting mortality among emergency department patients with a suspected infection: a meta-analysis. Emerg Med J 2020; 37:232-239. [PMID: 31836584 DOI: 10.1136/emermed-2019-208901] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/10/2019] [Revised: 11/16/2019] [Accepted: 11/21/2019] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES To carry out a meta-analysis to examine the prognostic performance of the Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis (MEDS) score in predicting mortality among emergency department patients with a suspected infection. METHODS Electronic databases-PubMed, Embase, Scopus, EBSCO and the Cochrane Library-were searched for eligible articles from their respective inception through February 2019. Sensitivity, specificity, likelihood ratios and receiver operator characteristic area under the curve were calculated. Subgroup analyses were performed to explore the prognostic performance of MEDS in selected populations. RESULTS We identified 24 studies involving 21 246 participants. The pooled sensitivity of MEDS to predict mortality was 79% (95% CI 72% to 84%); specificity was 74% (95% CI 68% to 80%); positive likelihood ratio 3.07 (95% CI 2.47 to 3.82); negative likelihood ratio 0.29 (95% CI 0.22 to 0.37) and area under the curve 0.83 (95% CI 0.80 to 0.86). Significant heterogeneity was seen among included studies. Meta-regression analyses showed that the time at which the MEDS score was measured and the cut-off value used were important sources of heterogeneity. CONCLUSION The MEDS score has moderate accuracy in predicting mortality among emergency department patients with a suspected infection. A study comparison MEDS and qSOFA in the same population is needed.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gensheng Zhang
- Department of Critical Care Medicine, Second Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China
| | - Kai Zhang
- Department of Critical Care Medicine, Second Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China
| | - Xie Zheng
- Department of Endocrinology, People's Hospital of Anji, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Anji, China
| | - Wei Cui
- Department of Critical Care Medicine, Second Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China
- Department of Critical Care Medicine, Second Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China
| | - Yucai Hong
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Sir Run Run Shaw Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China
| | - Zhongheng Zhang
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Sir Run Run Shaw Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, China
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29
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Ilko SA, Vakkalanka JP, Ahmed A, Harland KK, Mohr NM. Central Venous Access Capability and Critical Care Telemedicine Decreases Inter-Hospital Transfer Among Severe Sepsis Patients: A Mixed Methods Design. Crit Care Med 2020; 47:659-667. [PMID: 30730442 DOI: 10.1097/ccm.0000000000003686] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/15/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES Severe sepsis is a complex, resource intensive, and potentially lethal condition and rural patients have worse outcomes than urban patients. Early identification and treatment are important to improving outcomes. The objective of this study was to identify hospital-specific factors associated with inter-hospital transfer. DESIGN Mixed method study integrating data from a telephone survey and retrospective cohort study of state administrative claims. SETTING AND SUBJECTS Survey of Iowa emergency department administrators between May 2017 and June 2017 and cohort of adults seen in Iowa emergency departments for severe sepsis and septic shock between January 2005 and December 2013. INTERVENTIONS None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify independent predictors of inter-hospital transfer. We included 114 institutions that provided data (response rate = 99%), and responses were linked to a total of 150,845 visits for severe sepsis/septic shock. In our adjusted model, having the capability to place central venous catheters or having a subscription to a tele-ICU service was independently associated with lower odds of inter-hospital transfer (adjusted odds ratio, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.54-0.86 and adjusted odds ratio, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.54-0.88, respectively). A facility's participation in a sepsis-specific quality improvement initiative was associated with 62% higher odds of transfer (adjusted odds ratio, 1.62; 95% CI, 1.10-2.39). CONCLUSIONS The insertion of central venous catheters and access to a critical care physician during sepsis treatment are important capabilities in hospitals that transfer fewer sepsis patients. In the future, hospital-specific capabilities may be used to identify institutions as regional sepsis centers.
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Affiliation(s)
- Steven A Ilko
- Department of Emergency Medicine, University of Iowa Carver College of Medicine, Iowa City, IA
| | - J Priyanka Vakkalanka
- Department of Emergency Medicine, University of Iowa Carver College of Medicine, Iowa City, IA.,Department of Epidemiology, University of Iowa College of Public Health, Iowa City, IA
| | - Azeemuddin Ahmed
- Department of Emergency Medicine, University of Iowa Carver College of Medicine, Iowa City, IA.,Department of Management and Organizations, University of Iowa Tippie College of Business, Iowa City, IA
| | - Karisa K Harland
- Department of Emergency Medicine, University of Iowa Carver College of Medicine, Iowa City, IA.,Department of Epidemiology, University of Iowa College of Public Health, Iowa City, IA
| | - Nicholas M Mohr
- Department of Emergency Medicine, University of Iowa Carver College of Medicine, Iowa City, IA.,Department of Epidemiology, University of Iowa College of Public Health, Iowa City, IA.,Department of Anesthesia, University of Iowa Carver College of Medicine, Iowa City, IA
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Svenson P, Haralabopoulos G, Torres Torres M. Sepsis Deterioration Prediction Using Channelled Long Short-Term Memory Networks. Artif Intell Med 2020. [DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-59137-3_32] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/29/2022]
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31
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The comparison of early identification scores in sepsis. Am J Emerg Med 2019; 38:845-846. [PMID: 31831346 DOI: 10.1016/j.ajem.2019.10.008] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/02/2019] [Accepted: 10/04/2019] [Indexed: 11/20/2022] Open
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Perng JW, Kao IH, Kung CT, Hung SC, Lai YH, Su CM. Mortality Prediction of Septic Patients in the Emergency Department Based on Machine Learning. J Clin Med 2019; 8:jcm8111906. [PMID: 31703390 PMCID: PMC6912277 DOI: 10.3390/jcm8111906] [Citation(s) in RCA: 30] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/25/2019] [Revised: 10/28/2019] [Accepted: 11/04/2019] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
In emergency departments, the most common cause of death associated with suspected infected patients is sepsis. In this study, deep learning algorithms were used to predict the mortality of suspected infected patients in a hospital emergency department. During January 2007 and December 2013, 42,220 patients considered in this study were admitted to the emergency department due to suspected infection. In the present study, a deep learning structure for mortality prediction of septic patients was developed and compared with several machine learning methods as well as two sepsis screening tools: the systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) and quick sepsis-related organ failure assessment (qSOFA). The mortality predictions were explored for septic patients who died within 72 h and 28 days. Results demonstrated that the accuracy rate of deep learning methods, especially Convolutional Neural Network plus SoftMax (87.01% in 72 h and 81.59% in 28 d), exceeds that of the other machine learning methods, SIRS, and qSOFA. We expect that deep learning can effectively assist medical staff in early identification of critical patients.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jau-Woei Perng
- Department of Mechanical and Electro-Mechanical Engineering, National Sun Yat-sen University, Kaohsiung 804, Taiwan; (J.-W.P.); (I.-H.K.)
| | - I-Hsi Kao
- Department of Mechanical and Electro-Mechanical Engineering, National Sun Yat-sen University, Kaohsiung 804, Taiwan; (J.-W.P.); (I.-H.K.)
| | - Chia-Te Kung
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Kaohsiung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Chang Gung University College of Medicine, Kaohsiung 83301, Taiwan; (C.-T.K.); (S.-C.H.)
| | - Shih-Chiang Hung
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Kaohsiung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Chang Gung University College of Medicine, Kaohsiung 83301, Taiwan; (C.-T.K.); (S.-C.H.)
| | - Yi-Horng Lai
- School of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering, Xiamen University, Tan Kah Kee College, Zhangzhou 363105, China;
| | - Chih-Min Su
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Kaohsiung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Chang Gung University College of Medicine, Kaohsiung 83301, Taiwan; (C.-T.K.); (S.-C.H.)
- Correspondence:
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Pedersen PB, Henriksen DP, Brabrand M, Lassen AT. Prevalence of organ failure and mortality among patients in the emergency department: a population-based cohort study. BMJ Open 2019; 9:e032692. [PMID: 31666275 PMCID: PMC6830583 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2019-032692] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/12/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES The aim was to describe population-based incidence and emergency department-based prevalence and 1-year all-cause mortality of patients with new organ failure present at arrival. DESIGN This was a population-based cohort study of all citizens in four municipalities (population of 230 000 adults). SETTING Emergency department at Odense University Hospital, Denmark. PARTICIPANTS We included all adult patients who arrived from 1 April 2012 to 31 March 2015. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES Organ failure was defined as a modified Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score≥2 within six possible organ systems: cerebral, circulatory, renal, respiratory, hepatic and coagulation.The primary outcome was prevalence of organ failure, and secondary outcomes were 0-7 days, 8-30 days and 31-365 days all-cause mortality. RESULTS We identified in total 175 278 contacts, of which 70 399 contacts were further evaluated for organ failure. Fifty-two per cent of these were women, median age 62 (IQR 42-77) years. The incidence of new organ failure was 1342/100 000 person-years, corresponding to 5.2% of all emergency department contacts.The 0-7-day, 8-30-day and 31-365-day mortality was 11.0% (95% CI: 10.2% to 11.8%), 5.6% (95% CI: 5.1% to 6.2%) and 13.2% (95% CI: 12.3% to 14.1%), respectively, if the patient had one or more new organ failures at first contact in the observation period, compared with 1.4% (95% CI: 1.3% to 1.6%), 1.2% (95% CI: 1.1% to 1.3%) and 5.2% (95% CI: 5.0% to 5.4%) for patients without. Seven-day mortality ranged from hepatic failure, 6.5% (95% CI: 4.9% to 8.6%), to cerebral failure, 33.8% (95% CI: 31.0% to 36.8%), the 8-30-day mortality ranged from cerebral failure, 3.9% (95% CI: 2.8% to 5.3%), to hepatic failure, 8.6% (95% CI: 6.6% to 10.8%) and 31-365-day mortality ranged from cerebral failure, 9.3% (95% CI: 7.6% to 11.2%), to renal failure, 18.2% (95% CI: 15.5% to 21.1%). CONCLUSIONS The study revealed an incidence of new organ failure at 1342/100 000 person-years and a prevalence of 5.2% of all emergency department contacts. One-year all-cause mortality was 29.8% among organ failure patients.
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Affiliation(s)
- Peter Bank Pedersen
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Institute of Clinical Research, University of Southern Denmark, Odense University Hospital, Odense, Denmark
| | | | - Mikkel Brabrand
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Odense University Hospital & Hospital of South West Jutland, Odense & Esbjerg, Denmark
| | - Annmarie Touborg Lassen
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Institute of Clinical Research, University of Southern Denmark, Odense University Hospital, Odense, Denmark
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Serano AMN, Alonso JV, Piñero GR, Camacho AR, Benet JS, Vaquero M. Biomarkers in Shock Patients and Their Value as A Prognostic Tool; A Prospective Multi-Center Cohort Study. Bull Emerg Trauma 2019; 7:232-239. [PMID: 31392221 DOI: 10.29252/beat-070304] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/31/2022] Open
Abstract
Objective To investigate the prognostic value of clinical and laboratory tests in prediction of outcome in patients at day 30 post presentation to hospital with shock and to determine the prognostic value of mid regional pro-adrenomedullin (MR-proADM) on mortality prediction at 30 days in the same patient cohort. Method This prospective multicenter cohort study analyzed data from patients who had presenting with shock to the emergency departments of eleven urban, tertiary-care University hospitals in Spain between March, 2011 and May, 2011. Recruitment of patients was via convenience sampling. Inclusion criteria included age between 14 and 100 years with clinical diagnostic criteria of shock on admission. Various patient parameters were analysed, such as age, sex, past medical history. Other clinical variables were measured on arrival to hospital, including sequential organ failure assessment score (score SOFA), blood pressure, oxygen saturations, capillary refill time and shock index (SI). Laboratory variables investigated included base excess, MR-proADM, lactate, C-Reactive Protein (CRP) and procalcitonin (PCT). Results There were 212 patients included in the study from the eleven hospitals involved. The mean age was 72.2 years old and 60.4% of the patients were men. In the discriminant analysis only age, MR-proADM and PCT remained in the final discriminant equation. The separate analysis of MR-proADM showed that, in the non-survivors group, MR-proADM levels are significantly higher than those found in the group of survivors (p<0.001). Conclusion Age, PCT and MR-proADM were useful to predict short-term mortality in patients presenting to the emergency department shock. This suggests that PCT and MR-proADM in combination with the most common prediction models will improve prognostic value.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Gustavo Rene Piñero
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Hospital Leonidas Lucero. Bahia Blanca. Buenos Aires, Argentina
| | | | | | - Manuel Vaquero
- Department of Family Medicine, Jean Health Centre, PC 23003, Jaén, Spain
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Pong JZ, Koh ZX, Samsudin MI, Fook-Chong S, Liu N, Ong MEH. Validation of the mortality in emergency department sepsis (MEDS) score in a Singaporean cohort. Medicine (Baltimore) 2019; 98:e16962. [PMID: 31441900 PMCID: PMC6716723 DOI: 10.1097/md.0000000000016962] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/26/2022] Open
Abstract
The emergency department (ED) serves as the first point of hospital contact for most septic patients. Early mortality risk stratification using a quick and accurate triage tool would have great value in guiding management. The mortality in emergency department sepsis (MEDS) score was developed to risk stratify patients presenting to the ED with suspected sepsis, and its performance in the literature has been promising. We report in this study the first utilization of the MEDS score in a Singaporean cohort.In this retrospective observational cohort study, adult patients presenting to the ED with suspected sepsis and fulfilling systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) criteria were recruited. Primary outcome was 30-day in-hospital mortality (IHM) and secondary outcome was 72-hour mortality. MEDS, acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II), and sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) scores were compared for prediction of primary and secondary outcomes. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was conducted to compare predictive performance.Of the 249 patients included in the study, 46 patients (18.5%) met 30-day IHM. MEDS score achieved an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.87 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.82-0.93), outperforming the APACHE II score (0.77, 95% CI 0.69-0.85) and SOFA score (0.78, 95% CI 0.71-0.85). On secondary analysis, MEDS score was superior to both APACHE II and SOFA scores in predicting 72-hour mortality, with AUC of 0.88 (95% CI 0.82-0.95), 0.81 (95% CI 0.72-0.89), and 0.79 (95% CI 0.71-0.87), respectively. In predicting 30-day IHM, MEDS score ≥12, APACHE II score ≥23, and SOFA score ≥5 performed at sensitivities of 76.1%, 67.4%, and 76.1%, and specificities of 83.3%, 73.9%, and 65.0%, respectively.The MEDS score performed well in its ability for mortality risk stratification in a Singaporean ED cohort.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Zhi Xiong Koh
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Singapore General Hospital
| | | | | | - Nan Liu
- Duke-NUS Medical School, National University of Singapore
- Health Services Research Centre, Singapore Health Services
| | - Marcus Eng Hock Ong
- Duke-NUS Medical School, National University of Singapore
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Singapore General Hospital
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Agor J, Özaltın OY, Ivy JS, Capan M, Arnold R, Romero S. The value of missing information in severity of illness score development. J Biomed Inform 2019; 97:103255. [PMID: 31349049 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbi.2019.103255] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/03/2018] [Revised: 07/10/2019] [Accepted: 07/22/2019] [Indexed: 10/26/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE We aim to investigate the hypothesis that using information about which variables are missing along with appropriate imputation improves the performance of severity of illness scoring systems used to predict critical patient outcomes. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING We quantify the impact of missing and imputed variables on the performance of prediction models used in the development of a sepsis-related severity of illness scoring system. Electronic health records (EHR) data were compiled from Christiana Care Health System (CCHS) on 119,968 adult patients hospitalized between July 2013 and December 2015. Two outcomes of interest were considered for prediction: (1) first transfer to intensive care unit (ICU) and (2) in-hospital mortality. Five different prediction models were employed. Indicators were utilized in these prediction models to identify when variables were missing and imputed. RESULTS We observed statistically significant gains in prediction performance when moving from models that did not indicate missing information to those that did. Moreover, this increase was higher in models that use summary variables as predictors compared to those that use all variables. CONCLUSION When developing prediction models using longitudinal EHR data, researchers should explore the incorporation of indicators for missing variables along with appropriate imputation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Joseph Agor
- School of Mechanical, Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331-6001, United States
| | - Osman Y Özaltın
- Edward P. Fitts Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, North Carolina State University, 400 Daniels Hall, Raleigh, NC 27695-7906, United States.
| | - Julie S Ivy
- Edward P. Fitts Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, North Carolina State University, 400 Daniels Hall, Raleigh, NC 27695-7906, United States
| | - Muge Capan
- Decision Sciences & MIS Department, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University, Philadelphia, PA 19104, United States
| | - Ryan Arnold
- Department of Emergency Medicine and School of Medicine, Drexel University, Philadelphia, PA 19102, United States
| | - Santiago Romero
- Mayo Clinic Rochester, Center for Innovation, Rochester, MN 55905, United States
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Pong JZ, Fook-Chong S, Koh ZX, Samsudin MI, Tagami T, Chiew CJ, Wong TH, Ho AFW, Ong MEH, Liu N. Combining Heart Rate Variability with Disease Severity Score Variables for Mortality Risk Stratification in Septic Patients Presenting at the Emergency Department. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2019; 16:ijerph16101725. [PMID: 31100830 PMCID: PMC6571945 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph16101725] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/16/2019] [Revised: 05/13/2019] [Accepted: 05/14/2019] [Indexed: 12/29/2022]
Abstract
The emergency department (ED) serves as the first point of hospital contact for many septic patients, where risk-stratification would be invaluable. We devised a combination model incorporating demographic, clinical, and heart rate variability (HRV) parameters, alongside individual variables of the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II), and Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis (MEDS) scores for mortality risk-stratification. ED patients fulfilling systemic inflammatory response syndrome criteria were recruited. National Early Warning Score (NEWS), Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS), quick SOFA (qSOFA), SOFA, APACHE II, and MEDS scores were calculated. For the prediction of 30-day in-hospital mortality, combination model performed with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.91 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.88–0.95), outperforming NEWS (0.70, 95% CI: 0.63–0.77), MEWS (0.61, 95% CI 0.53–0.69), qSOFA (0.70, 95% CI 0.63–0.77), SOFA (0.74, 95% CI: 0.67–0.80), APACHE II (0.76, 95% CI: 0.69–0.82), and MEDS scores (0.86, 95% CI: 0.81–0.90). The combination model had an optimal sensitivity and specificity of 91.4% (95% CI: 81.6–96.5%) and 77.9% (95% CI: 72.6–82.4%), respectively. A combination model incorporating clinical, HRV, and disease severity score variables showed superior predictive ability for the mortality risk-stratification of septic patients presenting at the ED.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jeremy Zhenwen Pong
- Duke-NUS Medical School, National University of Singapore, Singapore 169857, Singapore.
| | - Stephanie Fook-Chong
- Health Services Research Unit, Singapore General Hospital, Singapore 169608, Singapore.
| | - Zhi Xiong Koh
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Singapore General Hospital, Singapore 169608, Singapore.
| | | | - Takashi Tagami
- Department of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Nippon Medical School Tama Nagayama Hospital, Tokyo 206-8512, Japan.
| | - Calvin J Chiew
- Preventive Medicine Residency Program, National University Health System, Singapore 119228, Singapore.
| | - Ting Hway Wong
- Department of General Surgery, Singapore General Hospital, Singapore 169608, Singapore.
| | - Andrew Fu Wah Ho
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Singapore General Hospital, Singapore 169608, Singapore.
| | - Marcus Eng Hock Ong
- Duke-NUS Medical School, National University of Singapore, Singapore 169857, Singapore.
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Singapore General Hospital, Singapore 169608, Singapore.
| | - Nan Liu
- Duke-NUS Medical School, National University of Singapore, Singapore 169857, Singapore.
- Health Services Research Centre, Singapore Health Services, Singapore 169856, Singapore.
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Fang WF, Huang CH, Chen YM, Hung KY, Chang YC, Lin CY, Fang YT, Chang YT, Chen HC, Huang KT, Chang HC, Chen YC, Wang YH, Wang CC, Lin MC. Application of dynamic pulse pressure and vasopressor tools for predicting outcomes in patients with sepsis in intensive care units. J Crit Care 2019; 52:156-162. [PMID: 31078024 DOI: 10.1016/j.jcrc.2019.05.003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/07/2019] [Revised: 04/02/2019] [Accepted: 05/01/2019] [Indexed: 12/23/2022]
Abstract
PURPOSE We aimed to determine whether the combination of dynamic pulse pressure and vasopressor (DPV) use is applicable for mortality risk stratification in patients with severe sepsis. We proposed the use of the DPV tool and compared it with traditional sepsis severity indices. MATERIALS AND METHODS All adult patients who met the sepsis criteria of the Third International Consensus Definitions for Sepsis and Septic Shock (Sepsis-3) between August 2013 and January 2017 were eligible for the study. Patients who expired within 3 days of admission to the intensive care unit (ICU) were excluded. The primary outcomes were 7-day and 28-day mortality. RESULTS The study participants included 757 consecutive adult patients. A subpopulation of 155 patients underwent immune profiling assays on days 1, 3, and 7 of ICU admission. The DPV tool had a better performance for predicting 7-day mortality (area under curve, AUC: 0.70), followed by the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) (AUC: 0.64), the plus pulse pressure (AUC: 0.64). For predicting 28-day mortality, the DPV tool was not inferior to the SOFA (AUC: 0.61), DPV tool (AUC: 0.59). CONCLUSIONS The DPV tool can be applied for 7-day and 28-day mortality risk prediction in patients with sepsis.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wen-Feng Fang
- Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, Kaohsiung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Chang Gung University College of Medicine, Kaohsiung, Taiwan; Department of Respiratory Therapy, Kaohsiung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Chang Gung University College of Medicine, Kaohsiung, Taiwan; Department of Respiratory Care, Chang Gung University of Science and Technology, Chiayi, Taiwan.
| | - Chi-Han Huang
- Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, Kaohsiung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Chang Gung University College of Medicine, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
| | - Yu-Mu Chen
- Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, Kaohsiung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Chang Gung University College of Medicine, Kaohsiung, Taiwan; Graduate Institute of Clinical Medical Sciences, Chang Gung University, Taoyuan, Taiwan
| | - Kai-Yin Hung
- Department of Nutritional Therapy, Kaohsiung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
| | - Ya-Chun Chang
- Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, Kaohsiung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Chang Gung University College of Medicine, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
| | - Chiung-Yu Lin
- Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, Kaohsiung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Chang Gung University College of Medicine, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
| | - Ying-Tang Fang
- Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, Kaohsiung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Chang Gung University College of Medicine, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
| | - Ya-Ting Chang
- Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, Kaohsiung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Chang Gung University College of Medicine, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
| | - Hung-Cheng Chen
- Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, Kaohsiung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Chang Gung University College of Medicine, Kaohsiung, Taiwan; Graduate Institute of Clinical Medical Sciences, Chang Gung University, Taoyuan, Taiwan
| | - Kuo-Tung Huang
- Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, Kaohsiung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Chang Gung University College of Medicine, Kaohsiung, Taiwan; Graduate Institute of Clinical Medical Sciences, Chang Gung University, Taoyuan, Taiwan
| | - Huang-Chih Chang
- Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, Kaohsiung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Chang Gung University College of Medicine, Kaohsiung, Taiwan; Graduate Institute of Clinical Medical Sciences, Chang Gung University, Taoyuan, Taiwan
| | - Yun-Che Chen
- Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, Kaohsiung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Chang Gung University College of Medicine, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
| | - Yi-Hsi Wang
- Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, Kaohsiung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Chang Gung University College of Medicine, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
| | - Chin-Chou Wang
- Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, Kaohsiung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Chang Gung University College of Medicine, Kaohsiung, Taiwan; Department of Respiratory Therapy, Kaohsiung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Chang Gung University College of Medicine, Kaohsiung, Taiwan; Department of Respiratory Care, Chang Gung University of Science and Technology, Chiayi, Taiwan
| | - Meng-Chih Lin
- Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, Kaohsiung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Chang Gung University College of Medicine, Kaohsiung, Taiwan; Department of Respiratory Therapy, Kaohsiung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Chang Gung University College of Medicine, Kaohsiung, Taiwan; Department of Respiratory Care, Chang Gung University of Science and Technology, Chiayi, Taiwan
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Rhee C, Zhang Z, Kadri SS, Murphy DJ, Martin GS, Overton E, Seymour CW, Angus DC, Dantes R, Epstein L, Fram D, Schaaf R, Wang R, Klompas M. Sepsis Surveillance Using Adult Sepsis Events Simplified eSOFA Criteria Versus Sepsis-3 Sequential Organ Failure Assessment Criteria. Crit Care Med 2019; 47:307-314. [PMID: 30768498 PMCID: PMC6383796 DOI: 10.1097/ccm.0000000000003521] [Citation(s) in RCA: 76] [Impact Index Per Article: 15.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/22/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES Sepsis-3 defines organ dysfunction as an increase in the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score by greater than or equal to 2 points. However, some Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score components are not routinely recorded in all hospitals' electronic health record systems, limiting its utility for wide-scale sepsis surveillance. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recently released the Adult Sepsis Event surveillance definition that includes simplified organ dysfunction criteria optimized for electronic health records (eSOFA). We compared eSOFA versus Sequential Organ Failure Assessment with regard to sepsis prevalence, overlap, and outcomes. DESIGN Retrospective cohort study. SETTING One hundred eleven U.S. hospitals in the Cerner HealthFacts dataset. PATIENTS Adults hospitalized in 2013-2015. INTERVENTIONS None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS We identified clinical indicators of presumed infection (blood cultures and antibiotics) concurrent with either: 1) an increase in Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score by 2 or more points (Sepsis-3) or 2) 1 or more eSOFA criteria: vasopressor initiation, mechanical ventilation initiation, lactate greater than or equal to 2.0 mmol/L, doubling in creatinine, doubling in bilirubin to greater than or equal to 2.0 mg/dL, or greater than or equal to 50% decrease in platelet count to less than 100 cells/μL (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Adult Sepsis Event). We compared area under the receiver operating characteristic curves for discriminating in-hospital mortality, adjusting for baseline characteristics. Of 942,360 patients in the cohort, 57,242 (6.1%) had sepsis by Sequential Organ Failure Assessment versus 41,618 (4.4%) by eSOFA. Agreement between sepsis by Sequential Organ Failure Assessment and eSOFA was good (Cronbach's alpha 0.81). Baseline characteristics and infectious diagnoses were similar, but mortality was higher with eSOFA (17.1%) versus Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (14.4%; p < 0.001) as was discrimination for mortality (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.774 vs 0.759; p < 0.001). Comparisons were consistent across subgroups of age, infectious diagnoses, and comorbidities. CONCLUSIONS The Adult Sepsis Event's eSOFA organ dysfunction criteria identify a smaller, more severely ill sepsis cohort compared with the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score, but with good overlap and similar clinical characteristics. Adult Sepsis Events may facilitate wide-scale automated sepsis surveillance that tracks closely with the more complex Sepsis-3 criteria.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chanu Rhee
- Department of Population Medicine, Harvard Medical School / Harvard Pilgrim Health Care Institute, Boston MA
- Department of Medicine, Brigham and Women’s Hospital, Boston, MA
| | - Zilu Zhang
- Department of Population Medicine, Harvard Medical School / Harvard Pilgrim Health Care Institute, Boston MA
| | - Sameer S. Kadri
- Critical Care Medicine Department, Clinical Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD
| | - David J. Murphy
- Department of Medicine, Division of Pulmonary, Allergy, Critical Care and Sleep Medicine, Emory University School of Medicine, and Emory Critical Care Center, Atlanta, GA
| | - Greg S. Martin
- Department of Medicine, Division of Pulmonary, Allergy, Critical Care and Sleep Medicine, Emory University School of Medicine, and Emory Critical Care Center, Atlanta, GA
| | - Elizabeth Overton
- Department of Medicine, Division of Pulmonary, Allergy, Critical Care and Sleep Medicine, Emory University School of Medicine, and Emory Critical Care Center, Atlanta, GA
| | - Christopher W. Seymour
- The Clinical Research, Investigation and Systems Modeling of Acute illness (CRISMA) Center, Department of Critical Care Medicine, University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine, Pittsburgh, PA
| | - Derek C. Angus
- The Clinical Research, Investigation and Systems Modeling of Acute illness (CRISMA) Center, Department of Critical Care Medicine, University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine, Pittsburgh, PA
| | - Raymund Dantes
- Division of Healthcare Quality Promotion, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA
- Division of Hospital Medicine, Emory University School of Medicine, Atlanta, GA
| | - Lauren Epstein
- Division of Healthcare Quality Promotion, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA
| | | | | | - Rui Wang
- Department of Population Medicine, Harvard Medical School / Harvard Pilgrim Health Care Institute, Boston MA
| | - Michael Klompas
- Department of Population Medicine, Harvard Medical School / Harvard Pilgrim Health Care Institute, Boston MA
- Department of Medicine, Brigham and Women’s Hospital, Boston, MA
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A Pilot Study of the Association of Amino-Terminal Pro-B-Type Natriuretic Peptide and Severity of Illness in Pediatric Septic Shock. Pediatr Crit Care Med 2019; 20:e55-e60. [PMID: 30395024 DOI: 10.1097/pcc.0000000000001777] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES Biomarkers that can measure illness severity and predict the risk of delayed recovery may be useful in guiding pediatric septic shock. Amino-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide has not been assessed in pediatric septic patients at the time of presentation to the emergency department prior to any interventions. The primary aim was to assess if emergency department amino-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide is associated with worse outcomes and severity of illness. DESIGN Prospective observational pilot study. SETTINGS Tertiary free-standing children's hospital. PATIENTS Children 0-17 years old with a diagnosis of septic shock were enrolled. Patients with preexisting cardiac and renal dysfunction were excluded. INTERVENTIONS None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS Amino-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide analysis was performed on samples obtained in the emergency department prior to any intervention. The association between biomarkers and clinical outcomes and illness severity using Pediatric RISk of Mortality 3 were assessed. Eighty-two patients with septic shock underwent analysis. The median (interquartile range) amino-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide levels was 394 pg/mL (102-1,392 pg/mL). Each decile change increase in amino-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide was associated with a change in ICU length of stay by 8.7%, (95% CI, 2.4-15.5), hospital length of stay by 5.7% (95% CI, 0.4-11.2), organ dysfunction by 5.1% (95% CI, 1.8-8.5), a higher inotropic score at 12, 24, and 36 hours, and longer time requiring vasoactive agents. There was a significant correlation between baseline amino-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide and the Pediatric RISk of Mortality 3 score (Spearman rho = 0.247; p = 0.029). CONCLUSIONS This pilot study shows an association between emergency department amino-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide on presentation and worse septic shock outcomes and amino-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide levels correlates with an ICU severity score.
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Songsangjinda T, Khwannimit B. Comparison of severity score models based on different sepsis definitions to predict in-hospital mortality among sepsis patients in the Intensive Care Unit. Med Intensiva 2019; 44:226-232. [PMID: 30711242 DOI: 10.1016/j.medin.2018.12.004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/06/2018] [Revised: 11/26/2018] [Accepted: 12/02/2018] [Indexed: 01/07/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE A comparison is made of the accuracy between severity models, based on different sepsis definitions (systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS), predisposition, insult, response, organ dysfunction (PIRO), and sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) concepts), in predicting outcomes among sepsis patients. DESIGN A retrospective study was carried out. SETTING The study was conducted in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) of a university teaching hospital. PATIENTS Septic patients admitted to the ICU during 2007-2016. MAIN VARIABLES OF INTEREST The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality, with ICU mortality being the secondary outcome. RESULTS A total of 2152 septic patient were identified, with ICU and in-hospital mortality rates of 33.3% and 45.9%, respectively. The Moreno PIRO (AUC, 95%CI) (0.835; 0.818-0.852) showed the highest discriminating capacity, followed by SOFA (0.828; 0.811-0.846), qSOFA (0.792; 0.775-0.809), Rubulotta PIRO (0.708; 0.687-0.730), Howell PIRO (0.706; 0.685-0.728) and SIRS (0.578; 0.556-0.600). The AUC of the SOFA score was comparable to that of the Moreno PIRO (p=0.43), though the AUCs of both of these scores were significantly higher than those of the other scores (p<0.001 for all other comparisons). However, the SOFA score showed the best discriminating capacity in predicting ICU mortality (0.838; 0.820-0.855), followed by Moreno PIRO (0.804; 0.785-0.823) and qSOFA (0.787; 0.770-0.805). The accuracy of the qSOFA in predicting ICU mortality was comparable to that of the Moreno PIRO score (p=0.15). CONCLUSION The SOFA score and Moreno PIRO score showed the best accuracy in predicting in-hospital mortality among septic patients admitted to the ICU.
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Affiliation(s)
- T Songsangjinda
- Department of Internal Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Prince of Songkla University, Hat Yai, Songkhla 90110, Thailand
| | - B Khwannimit
- Division of Critical Care Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Prince of Songkla University, Hat Yai, Songkhla 90110, Thailand.
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Melendez E, Whitney JE, Norton JS, Silverman M, Harju-Baker S, Mikacenic C, Wurfel MM, Liles WC. Systemic Angiopoietin-1/2 Dysregulation in Pediatric Sepsis and Septic Shock. Int J Med Sci 2019; 16:318-323. [PMID: 30745813 PMCID: PMC6367536 DOI: 10.7150/ijms.27731] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/07/2018] [Accepted: 10/31/2018] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Background: Angiopoietin-1 and -2 are vascular growth factors that exert opposing effects on endothelial activation and dysfunction. The aim of this study was to assess the association of these biomarkers with outcomes in children with sepsis. Methods: Biomarkers were assayed from the blood collected in an emergency department prior to any intervention. Predictor variables were Ang-1 and Ang-2 levels and the Ang-2/Ang-1 ratio. Outcomes included mortality, length of time on vasopressors, and ICU and hospital lengths of stay. The Pediatric RISk of Mortality III Score was calculated. A vasoactive inotrope score was calculated every 12 hours. Results: Forty-five children with sepsis and 49 with septic shock were analyzed. The median Ang-2 was higher in septic shock. The Ang-2/Ang-1 ratio was approximately 2-fold greater in those with septic shock. The Ang-2/Ang-1 ratio was associated with higher doses of vasoactive agents at 12 hours and longer ICU length of stay. In septic shock, for every 0.35 unit increase in the Ang-2/Ang-1 ratio, the PRISM III score increased by 1. Conclusions: The Ang-2/Ang-1 ratio was higher in children with septic shock. Ang-2/Ang-1 was associated with higher vasoactive agents, longer ICU length of stay, and correlated with the severity of illness score.
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Affiliation(s)
- Elliot Melendez
- Division of Pediatric Critical Care, John Hopkins All Children's Hospital, St. Petersburg, FL
| | - Jane E Whitney
- Division of Critical Care, Children's Hospital of Philadelphia, Philadelphia, PA
| | - Jackson S Norton
- Division of Medicine Critical Care, Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, MA
| | - Melanie Silverman
- Division of Medicine Critical Care, Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, MA
| | | | | | - Mark M Wurfel
- Department of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA
| | - W Conrad Liles
- Department of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA
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Badrinath K, Shekhar M, Sreelakshmi M, Srinivasan M, Thunga G, Nair S, Nileshwar KR, Balakrishnan A, Kunhikatta V. Comparison of Various Severity Assessment Scoring Systems in Patients with Sepsis in a Tertiary Care Teaching Hospital. Indian J Crit Care Med 2018; 22:842-845. [PMID: 30662222 PMCID: PMC6311975 DOI: 10.4103/ijccm.ijccm_322_18] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/29/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Sepsis is a complex condition defined by the systemic response to infection. Severity assessment scoring systems are used to aid the physician in deciding whether aggressive treatment is needed or not. In this study, various severity assessment scoring systems, namely Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II), Rapid Emergency Medicine Score (REMS), Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), Multiple Organ Dysfunction Score (MODS), Predisposition, Infection, Response, and Organ Dysfunction (PIRO), and Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis (MEDS), were compared to assess their sensitivity and specificity. MATERIALS AND METHODS A prospective cohort study was conducted over 6 months. The study was conducted in the intensive care unit (ICU) of a tertiary care teaching hospital. All patients above 18 years of age with confirmed sepsis diagnosis and a well-defined outcome were included in the study. RESULTS A total of 193 patients were included in the study. The mean age was 57.2 ± 15.3 (mean ± standard deviation) years. Majority of the patients were male, 125 (64.76%). Overall mortality was 108 (55.9%). The calculated area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.86 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.80-0.90) for APACHE II, 0.81 (95% CI: 0.75-0.87) for REMS, 0.80 (95% CI: 0.74-0.86) for SOFA, 0.74 (95% CI: 0.67-0.80) for MODS, 0.78 (95% CI: 0.71-0.84) for PIRO, and 0.77 (95% CI: 0.71-0.83) for MEDS. Sensitivity and specificity for APACHE II were 81.5 and 75.3, respectively. CONCLUSIONS In our study, APACHE II score was found to be the most sensitive and specific in predicting the severity of sepsis compared to other scores.
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Affiliation(s)
- Keertana Badrinath
- Department of Pharmacy Practice, Manipal College of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Manipal, Karnataka, India
| | - Monica Shekhar
- Department of Pharmacy Practice, Manipal College of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Manipal, Karnataka, India
| | - Moturu Sreelakshmi
- Department of Pharmacy Practice, Manipal College of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Manipal, Karnataka, India
| | - Meenakshi Srinivasan
- Department of Pharmacy Practice, Manipal College of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Manipal, Karnataka, India
| | - Girish Thunga
- Department of Pharmacy Practice, Manipal College of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Manipal, Karnataka, India
| | - Sreedharan Nair
- Department of Pharmacy Practice, Manipal College of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Manipal, Karnataka, India
| | - Karthik Rao Nileshwar
- Department of Medicine, Kasturba Medical College, Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Manipal, Karnataka, India
| | - Athira Balakrishnan
- Department of Pharmacy Practice, Manipal College of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Manipal, Karnataka, India
| | - Vijayanarayana Kunhikatta
- Department of Pharmacy Practice, Manipal College of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Manipal, Karnataka, India
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Comparison of SIRS, qSOFA, and NEWS for the early identification of sepsis in the Emergency Department. Am J Emerg Med 2018; 37:1490-1497. [PMID: 30470600 DOI: 10.1016/j.ajem.2018.10.058] [Citation(s) in RCA: 139] [Impact Index Per Article: 23.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/14/2018] [Revised: 10/15/2018] [Accepted: 10/28/2018] [Indexed: 11/20/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES The increasing use of sepsis screening in the Emergency Department (ED) and the Sepsis-3 recommendation to use the quick Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) necessitates validation. We compared Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS), qSOFA, and the National Early Warning Score (NEWS) for the identification of severe sepsis and septic shock (SS/SS) during ED triage. METHODS This was a retrospective analysis from an urban, tertiary-care academic center that included 130,595 adult visits to the ED, excluding dispositions lacking adequate clinical evaluation (n = 14,861, 11.4%). The SS/SS group (n = 930) was selected using discharge diagnoses and chart review. We measured sensitivity, specificity, and area under the receiver-operating characteristic (AUROC) for the detection of sepsis endpoints. RESULTS NEWS was most accurate for triage detection of SS/SS (AUROC = 0.91, 0.88, 0.81), septic shock (AUROC = 0.93, 0.88, 0.84), and sepsis-related mortality (AUROC = 0.95, 0.89, 0.87) for NEWS, SIRS, and qSOFA, respectively (p < 0.01 for NEWS versus SIRS and qSOFA). For the detection of SS/SS (95% CI), sensitivities were 84.2% (81.5-86.5%), 86.1% (83.6-88.2%), and 28.5% (25.6-31.7%) and specificities were 85.0% (84.8-85.3%), 79.1% (78.9-79.3%), and 98.9% (98.8-99.0%) for NEWS ≥ 4, SIRS ≥ 2, and qSOFA ≥ 2, respectively. CONCLUSIONS NEWS was the most accurate scoring system for the detection of all sepsis endpoints. Furthermore, NEWS was more specific with similar sensitivity relative to SIRS, improves with disease severity, and is immediately available as it does not require laboratories. However, scoring NEWS is more involved and may be better suited for automated computation. QSOFA had the lowest sensitivity and is a poor tool for ED sepsis screening.
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Pedersen PB, Hrobjartsson A, Nielsen DL, Henriksen DP, Brabrand M, Lassen AT. Prevalence and prognosis of acutely ill patients with organ failure at arrival to hospital: A systematic review. PLoS One 2018; 13:e0206610. [PMID: 30383864 PMCID: PMC6211733 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0206610] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/04/2018] [Accepted: 10/16/2018] [Indexed: 01/31/2023] Open
Abstract
Introduction Patients in an emergency department are diverse. Some are more seriously ill than others and some even arrive in multi-organ failure. Knowledge of the prevalence of organ failure and its prognosis in unselected patients is important from a diagnostic, hospital planning, and from a quality evaluation point of view, but is not reported systematically. Objectives To analyse the prevalence and prognosis of new onset organ failure in unselected acute patients at arrival to hospital. Methods A systematic review of studies of prevalence and prognosis of acutely ill patients with organ failure at arrival to hospital. We searched PubMed, Cochrane Library, Embase and Cinahl, and read references in included studies. Two authors decided independently on study eligibility and extracted data. Results were summarised qualitatively. Results Four studies were included with a total of 678,960 patients. The number of different organ failures reported in the studies ranged from one to six, and the settings were emergency departments and wards. The definitions of organ failure varied between studies. The prevalence of organ failure was 7%, 14%, 14%, and 23%, and in-hospital mortality was 5%, 11% and 15% respectively. The relative risk of in-hospital mortality for patients with organ failure compared to patients without organ failure varied from 2.58 to 8.65. Numbers of organ failures per 1,000 visits varied from 71 to 256. Conclusion The results of this review indicate that clinicians have good reasons to be alert when a patient arrives to the emergency department; as a state of organ failure seems both frequent and highly severe. However, most studies identified were performed in patients after a diagnosis was established, and only very few studies were performed in unselected patients. Systematic review registration number PROSPERO: CRD42017060871.
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Affiliation(s)
- Peter Bank Pedersen
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Odense University Hospital, Odense, Denmark
- Institute of Clinical Research, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark
- * E-mail:
| | - Asbjørn Hrobjartsson
- Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine, University of Southern Denmark & Odense University Hospital, Odense, Denmark
| | | | - Daniel Pilsgaard Henriksen
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Odense University Hospital, Odense, Denmark
- Department of Respiratory Medicine, Odense University Hospital, Odense, Denmark
| | - Mikkel Brabrand
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Odense University Hospital, Odense, Denmark
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Hospital of South West Jutland, Esbjerg, Denmark
| | - Annmarie Touborg Lassen
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Odense University Hospital, Odense, Denmark
- Institute of Clinical Research, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark
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Rahmatinejad Z, Reihani H, Tohidinezhad F, Rahmatinejad F, Peyravi S, Pourmand A, Abu-Hanna A, Eslami S. Predictive performance of the SOFA and mSOFA scoring systems for predicting in-hospital mortality in the emergency department. Am J Emerg Med 2018; 37:1237-1241. [PMID: 30213476 DOI: 10.1016/j.ajem.2018.09.011] [Citation(s) in RCA: 27] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/01/2018] [Revised: 09/01/2018] [Accepted: 09/04/2018] [Indexed: 10/28/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) and modified SOFA (mSOFA) are risk stratification systems which incorporate respiratory, coagulatory, liver, cardiovascular, renal, and neurologic systems to quantify the overall severity of acute disorder in the intensive care unit. OBJECTIVE To evaluate the prognostic performance of the SOFA and mSOFA scores at arrival for predicting in-hospital mortality in the emergency department (ED). METHODS All adult patients with an Emergency Severity Index (ESI) of 1-3 in the ED of Imam Reza Hospital, northeast of Iran were included from March 2016 to March 2017. The predictive performance of the SOFA or mSOFA scores were expressed in terms of accuracy (Brier Score, BS and Brier Skill Score, BSS), discrimination (Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve, AUC), and calibration. RESULTS A total of 2205 patients (mean age 61.8 ± 18.5 years, 53% male) were included. The overall in-hospital mortality was 19%. For SOFA and mSOFA the BS was 0.209 and 0.192 and the BSS was 0.11 and 0.09, respectively. The estimated AUCs of SOFA and mSOFA models were 0.751 and 0.739, respectively. No significant difference was observed between the AUCs (P = 0.186). The Hosmer-Lemeshow test did not show that the predictions deviated from the true probabilities. Also, the calibration plots revealed good agreement between the actual and predicted probabilities. CONCLUSION The SOFA and mSOFA scores demonstrated fair discrimination and good calibration in predicting in-hospital mortality when applied to ED. However, further external validation studies are needed before their use in routine clinical care.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zahra Rahmatinejad
- Student Research Committee, Department of Medical Informatics, Faculty of Medicine, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran
| | - Hamidreza Reihani
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran
| | - Fariba Tohidinezhad
- Student Research Committee, Department of Medical Informatics, Faculty of Medicine, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran
| | - Fatemeh Rahmatinejad
- Student Research Committee, Department of Health Information Technology, Faculty of Paramedical, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran
| | - Samira Peyravi
- Student Research Committee, Department of Emergency Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran
| | - Ali Pourmand
- Department of Emergency Medicine, The George Washington University, 2120 L St, NW, Washington, DC, United States of America
| | - Ameen Abu-Hanna
- Department of Medical Informatics, Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Saeid Eslami
- Department of Medical Informatics, Faculty of Medicine, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran; Pharmaceutical Research Center, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran; Department of Medical Informatics, Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
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Raymond NJ, Nguyen M, Allmark S, Woods L, Peckler B. Modified Sequential Organ Failure Assessment sepsis score in an emergency department setting: Retrospective assessment of prognostic value. Emerg Med Australas 2018; 31:339-346. [DOI: 10.1111/1742-6723.13154] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/27/2017] [Revised: 06/02/2018] [Accepted: 06/25/2018] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Nigel J Raymond
- Infection ServiceCapital and Coast District Health Board, Wellington Hospital Wellington New Zealand
| | - Mai Nguyen
- Emergency DepartmentCapital and Coast District Health Board, Wellington Hospital Wellington New Zealand
| | - Sandra Allmark
- Quality Improvement and Patient Safety DepartmentCapital and Coast District Health Board, Wellington Hospital Wellington New Zealand
| | - Lisa Woods
- School of Mathematics and StatisticsVictoria University Wellington New Zealand
| | - Brad Peckler
- Emergency DepartmentCapital and Coast District Health Board, Wellington Hospital Wellington New Zealand
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Shetty A, MacDonald SP, Williams JM, van Bockxmeer J, de Groot B, Esteve Cuevas LM, Ansems A, Green M, Thompson K, Lander H, Greenslade J, Finfer S, Iredell J. Lactate ≥2 mmol/L plus qSOFA improves utility over qSOFA alone in emergency department patients presenting with suspected sepsis. Emerg Med Australas 2018; 29:626-634. [PMID: 29178274 DOI: 10.1111/1742-6723.12894] [Citation(s) in RCA: 39] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/17/2017] [Revised: 09/16/2017] [Accepted: 10/04/2017] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE The Sepsis-3 task force recommends the use of the quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) score to identify risk for adverse outcomes in patients presenting with suspected infection. Lactate has been shown to predict adverse outcomes in patients with suspected infection. The aim of the study is to investigate the utility of a post hoc lactate threshold (≥2 mmol/L) added qSOFA score (LqSOFA(2) score) to predict primary composite adverse outcomes (mortality and/or ICU stay ≥72 h) in patients presenting to ED with suspected sepsis. METHODS Retrospective cohort study was conducted on a merged dataset of suspected or proven sepsis patients presenting to ED across multiple sites in Australia and The Netherlands. Patients are identified as candidates for quality improvement initiatives or research studies at respective sites based on local screening procedures. Data-sharing was performed across sites of demographics, qSOFA, SOFA, lactate thresholds and outcome data for included patients. LqSOFA(2) scores were calculated by adding an extra point to qSOFA score in patients who met lactate thresholds of ≥2 mmol/L. RESULTS In a merged dataset of 12 555 patients where a full qSOFA score and outcome data were available, LqSOFA(2) ≥2 identified more patients with an adverse outcome (sensitivity 65.5%, 95% confidence interval 62.6-68.4) than qSOFA ≥2 (sensitivity 47.6%, 95% confidence interval 44.6- 50.6). The post hoc addition of lactate threshold identified higher proportion of patients at risk of adverse outcomes. CONCLUSIONS The lactate ≥2 mmol/L threshold-based LqSOFA(2) score performs better than qSOFA alone in identifying risk of adverse outcomes in ED patients with suspected sepsis.
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Affiliation(s)
- Amith Shetty
- Westmead Institute for Medical Research, NHMRC Centre for Research Excellence in Critical Infection, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.,Westmead Emergency Medical Research Unit, Westmead Hospital, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Stephen Pj MacDonald
- Centre for Clinical Research in Emergency Medicine, Harry Perkins Institute of Medical Research, Perth, Western Australia, Australia.,Department of Emergency Medicine, Royal Perth Hospital, Perth, Western Australia, Australia.,Division of Emergency Medicine, The University of Western Australia, Perth, Western Australia, Australia
| | - Julian M Williams
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Royal Brisbane and Women's Hospital, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - John van Bockxmeer
- Western Australia Country Health Service, South Hedland, Western Australia, Australia
| | - Bas de Groot
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Leiden University Medical Centre, Leiden, The Netherlands
| | | | - Annemieke Ansems
- Emergency Department, Albert Schweitzer Ziekenhuis, Dordrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Malcolm Green
- Clinical Excellence Commission, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Kelly Thompson
- Critical Care and Trauma Division, The George Institute for Global Health, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Harvey Lander
- Clinical Excellence Commission, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Jaimi Greenslade
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Royal Brisbane and Women's Hospital, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.,Department of Biostatistics, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Simon Finfer
- Critical Care and Trauma Division, The George Institute for Global Health, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Jonathan Iredell
- Westmead Institute for Medical Research, NHMRC Centre for Research Excellence in Critical Infection, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
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Gupta A, Liu T, Shepherd S, Paiva W. Using Statistical and Machine Learning Methods to Evaluate the Prognostic Accuracy of SIRS and qSOFA. Healthc Inform Res 2018; 24:139-147. [PMID: 29770247 PMCID: PMC5944188 DOI: 10.4258/hir.2018.24.2.139] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/14/2018] [Revised: 04/19/2018] [Accepted: 04/20/2018] [Indexed: 01/20/2023] Open
Abstract
Objectives The objective of this study was to compare the performance of two popularly used early sepsis diagnostic criteria, systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) and quick Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA), using statistical and machine learning approaches. Methods This retrospective study examined patient visits in Emergency Department (ED) with sepsis related diagnosis. The outcome was 28-day in-hospital mortality. Using odds ratio (OR) and modeling methods (decision tree [DT], multivariate logistic regression [LR], and naïve Bayes [NB]), the relationships between diagnostic criteria and mortality were examined. Results Of 132,704 eligible patient visits, 14% died within 28 days of ED admission. The association of qSOFA ≥2 with mortality (OR = 3.06; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.96–3.17) greater than the association of SIRS ≥2 with mortality (OR = 1.22; 95% CI, 1.18–1.26). The area under the ROC curve for qSOFA (AUROC = 0.70) was significantly greater than for SIRS (AUROC = 0.63). For qSOFA, the sensitivity and specificity were DT = 0.39, LR = 0.64, NB = 0.62 and DT = 0.89, LR = 0.63, NB = 0.66, respectively. For SIRS, the sensitivity and specificity were DT = 0.46, LR = 0.62, NB = 0.62 and DT = 0.70, LR = 0.59, NB = 0.58, respectively. Conclusions The evidences suggest that qSOFA is a better diagnostic criteria than SIRS. The low sensitivity of qSOFA can be improved by carefully selecting the threshold to translate the predicted probabilities into labels. These findings can guide healthcare providers in selecting risk-stratification measures for patients presenting to an ED with sepsis.
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Affiliation(s)
- Akash Gupta
- Industrial Engineering and Management, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, OK, USA
| | - Tieming Liu
- Industrial Engineering and Management, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, OK, USA
| | - Scott Shepherd
- Center for Health Systems Innovation, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, OK, USA
| | - William Paiva
- Center for Health Systems Innovation, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, OK, USA
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Comparison of Sepsis-3 Criteria Versus SIRS Criteria in Screening Patients for Sepsis in the Emergency Department. Adv Emerg Nurs J 2018; 40:138-143. [DOI: 10.1097/tme.0000000000000187] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/26/2022]
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