Spatial analysis and GIS in the study of COVID-19. A review

Simulation and forecasting models of COVID-19 taking into account spatio-temporal dynamic characteristics: A review

The COVID-19 epidemic has caused more than 6.4 million deaths to date and has become a hot topic of interest in different disciplines. According to bibliometric analysis, more than 340,000 articles have been published on the COVID-19 epidemic from the beginning of the epidemic until recently. Modeling infectious diseases can provide critical planning and analytical tools for outbreak control and public health research, especially from a spatio-temporal perspective. However, there has not been a comprehensive review of the developing process of spatio-temporal dynamic models. Therefore, the aim of this study is to provide a comprehensive review of these spatio-temporal dynamic models for dealing with COVID-19, focusing on the different model scales. We first summarized several data used in the spatio-temporal modeling of the COVID-19, and then, through literature review and summary, we found that the existing COVID-19 spatio-temporal models can be divided into two categories: macro-dynamic models and micro-dynamic models. Typical representatives of these two types of models are compartmental and metapopulation models, cellular automata (CA), and agent-based models (ABM). Our results show that the modeling results are not accurate enough due to the unavailability of the fine-grained dataset of COVID-19. Furthermore, although many models have been developed, many of them focus on short-term prediction of disease outbreaks and lack medium- and long-term predictions. Therefore, future research needs to integrate macroscopic and microscopic models to build adaptive spatio-temporal dynamic simulation models for the medium and long term (from months to years) and to make sound inferences and recommendations about epidemic development in the context of medical discoveries, which will be the next phase of new challenges and trends to be addressed. In addition, there is still a gap in research on collecting fine-grained spatial-temporal big data based on cloud platforms and crowdsourcing technologies to establishing world model to battle the epidemic.

Analysis of the Lockdown Effects on the Economy, Environment, and COVID-19 Spread: Lesson Learnt from a Global Pandemic in 2020

Lockdown policies have been implemented to reduce COVID-19 transmission worldwide. However, the shutdown of activities has resulted in large economic losses, and it has been widely reported that lockdown measures have resulted in improved air quality. Therefore, many previous studies have attempted to investigate the impacts of the COVID-19-induced lockdowns on the economy, environment, and COVID-19 spread. Nevertheless, the heterogeneity among countries worldwide in the economic, environmental, and public health aspects and the spatial effects of decomposition have not been well investigated in the existing related literature. In this study, based on the cross-sectional data of 158 countries in 2020 and the proposed nonlinear simultaneous spatial econometric models, we investigate the nonlinear and spatial impacts of the COVID-19-induced lockdowns on the economy, environment, and COVID-19 spread. The findings show that lockdowns have had statistically significant negative economic impacts and beneficial environmental consequences but no effect on COVID-19 spread. Noteworthily, this study also found the length of lockdown periods to affect the three domains of interest differently, with a piece of empirical evidence that the imposition of lockdowns for more than 31 days a year could result in economic impairments but contribute to environmental improvements. Lockdowns were shown to have substantially reduced PM2.5 not only in the countries that imposed the measures but also indirectly in the neighboring countries as a spatial spillover effect.

One Health security lessons from a year-long webinar series on international COVID-19 response

Following the principles outlined by the Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network, the Federal Bureau of Investigation's International Biosecurity and Prevention Forum, the European Commission's Joint Research Centre, and the Middlebury Institute of International Studies' James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies cohosted a webinar series from April 2020 to January 2021 on COVID-19 management across Africa, Europe, and North America. We provide here an overview of the webinar series and discuss how lessons learned during the COVID-19 pandemic and debated during the webinars can be used to bridge One Health with biological threat-driven health security. This report can be used to inform recommendations for future One Health security approaches to strengthen global capacity and multidisciplinary cooperation.

Environmental policies for the treatment of waste generated by COVID-19: Text mining review

The rapid transmission of COVID-19 has meant that all economic and human efforts have been focused on confronting it, ignoring environmental aspects whose consequences are causing adverse situations all over the planet. The saturation of the sanitary system and confinement measures have multiplied the waste generated, which implies the need to adapt environmental policies to this new situation caused by the pandemic. It is a review article whose objective was to identify the environmental policies that would facilitate an adequate treatment of the waste generated by the pandemic. It was proposed to analyse the current lines of research developed on this paradigm, applying the text mining methodology. A systematic review of 111 studies published in environmental journals indexed in the Web of Science was carried out. The results identified three areas of interest: knowledge of transmission routes, management of the massive generation of plastics and appropriate treatment of solid waste in extreme situations. Leaders are called upon to implement the contingency plans to sustainably alleviate the enormous waste burden caused by society's adaptation to the restrictions imposed by the pandemic. Specifically, innovation aimed at achieving the reuse of medical products, the promotion of the circular economy and educational campaigns to promote clean environments should be encouraged.

Influence of the Demographic, Social, and Environmental Factors on the COVID-19 Pandemic-Analysis of the Local Variations Using Geographically Weighted Regression

As the COVID-19 pandemic continues, an increasing number of different research studies focusing on various aspects of the pandemic are emerging. Most of the studies focus on the medical aspects of the pandemic, as well as on the impact of COVID-19 on various areas of life; less emphasis is put on analyzing the influence of socio-environmental factors on the spread of the pandemic. In this paper, using the geographically weighted regression method, the extent to which demographic, social, and environmental factors explain the number of cases of SARS-CoV-2 is explored. The research was performed for the case-study area of Poland, considering the administrative division of the country into counties. The results showed that the demographic factors best explained the number of cases of SARS-CoV-2; the social factors explained it to a medium degree; and the environmental factors explained it to the lowest degree. Urban population and the associated higher amount and intensity of human contact are the most influential factors in the development of the COVID-19 pandemic. The analysis of the factors related to the areas burdened by social problems resulting primarily from the economic exclusion revealed that poverty-burdened areas are highly vulnerable to the development of the COVID-19 pandemic. Using maps of the local R2 it was possible to visualize how the relationships between the explanatory variables (for this research-demographic, social, and environmental factors) and the dependent variable (number of cases of SARS-CoV-2) vary across the study area. Through the GWR method, counties were identified as particularly vulnerable to the pandemic because of the problem of economic exclusion. Considering that the COVID-19 pandemic is still ongoing, the results obtained may be useful for local authorities in developing strategies to counter the pandemic.

Consideration of COVID-19 beyond the human-centred approach of prevention and control: the ONE-HEALTH perspective

Most of the new emerging and re-emerging zoonotic virus outbreaks in recent years stem from close interaction with dead or alive infected animals. Since late 2019, the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread into 221 countries and territories resulting in close to 300 million known infections and 5.4 million deaths in addition to a huge impact on both public health and the world economy. This paper reviews the COVID-19 prevalence in animals, raise concerns about animal welfare and discusses the role of environment in the transmission of COVID-19. Attention is drawn to the One Health concept as it emphasizes the environment in connection with the risk of transmission and establishment of diseases shared between animals and humans. Considering the importance of One Health for an effective response to the dissemination of infections of pandemic character, some unsettled issues with respect to COVID-19 are highlighted.

Assessing myocardial infarction severity from the urban environment perspective in Wuhan, China

Health inequalities are globally widespread due to the regional socioeconomic inequalities. Myocardial infarction (MI) is a leading health problem causing deaths worldwide. Yet medical services for it are often inequitably distributed by region. Moreover, studies concerning MI's potential spatial risk factors generally suffer from difficulties in focusing on too few factors, inappropriate models, and coarse spatial grain of data. To address these issues, this paper integrates registered 1098 MI cases and urban multi-source spatio-temporal big data, and spatially analyses the risk factors for MI severity by applying an advanced interpretable model, the random forest algorithm (RFA)-based SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) model. In addition, a community-scale model between spatio-temporal risk factors and MI cases is constructed to predict the MI severity of all communities in Wuhan, China. The results suggest that those risk factors (i.e., age of patients, medical quality, temperature changes, air pollution and urban habitat) affect the MI severity at the community scale. We found that Wuhan residents in the downtown area are at risk for high MI severity, and the surrounding suburb areas show a donut-shape pattern of risk for medium-to-high MI severity. These patterns draw our attention to the impact of spatial environmental risk factors on MI severity. Thus, this paper provides three recommendations for urban planning to reduce the risk and mortality from severe MI in the aspect of policy implication.

Mapping urban physical distancing constraints, sub-Saharan Africa: a case study from Kenya

With the onset of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, public health measures such as physical distancing were recommended to reduce transmission of the virus causing the disease. However, the same approach in all areas, regardless of context, may lead to measures being of limited effectiveness and having unforeseen negative consequences, such as loss of livelihoods and food insecurity. A prerequisite to planning and implementing effective, context-appropriate measures to slow community transmission is an understanding of any constraints, such as the locations where physical distancing would not be possible. Focusing on sub-Saharan Africa, we outline and discuss challenges that are faced by residents of urban informal settlements in the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. We describe how new geospatial data sets can be integrated to provide more detailed information about local constraints on physical distancing and can inform planning of alternative ways to reduce transmission of COVID-19 between people. We include a case study for Nairobi County, Kenya, with mapped outputs which illustrate the intra-urban variation in the feasibility of physical distancing and the expected difficulty for residents of many informal settlement areas. Our examples demonstrate the potential of new geospatial data sets to provide insights and support to policy-making for public health measures, including COVID-19.

Assessment of community vulnerability during the COVID-19 pandemic: Hong Kong as a case study

The COVID-19 pandemic continues to threaten global public health. Reliable assessment of community vulnerability is therefore essential to fighting and mitigating the pandemic. This study presents a framework that considers the roles of internal and external factors, including the components of social vulnerability, exposure, and sensitivity, to comprehensively and accurately assess community vulnerability to the pandemic. With respect to internal factors, we summarized the inherent social characteristics of people groups using census data and explored the roles of both overall and four major thematic social vulnerabilities in shaping community infection by COVID-19. We then designed two external factors to characterize exposure and sensitivity and implemented an aggregation by multiplying them with the internal social vulnerability to achieve a comprehensive vulnerability assessment. The role of the estimated vulnerability in shaping community infection was evaluated by statistical and spatial analysis as well as by risk factor classification using defined rules. This case study of Hong Kong demonstrated the value of our framework in vulnerability assessment and revealed the role of vulnerability in shaping community infection by COVID-19.

What Makes Urban Communities More Resilient to COVID-19? A Systematic Review of Current Evidence

It has been more than two years since the outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic at the end of 2019. Many scholars have introduced the "resilience" concept into COVID-19 prevention and control to make up for the deficiencies in traditional community governance. This study analyzed the progress in research on social resilience, which is an important component of community resilience, focusing on the current literature on the impact of social resilience on COVID-19, and proposed a generalized dimension to integrated previous relevant literature. Then, VOSviewer was used to visualize and analyze the current progress of research on social resilience. The PRISMA method was used to collate studies on social resilience to the pandemic. The result showed that many current policies are effective in controlling COVID-19, but some key factors, such as vulnerable groups, social assistance, and socioeconomics, affect proper social functioning. Some scholars have proposed effective solutions to improve social resilience, such as establishing an assessment framework, identifying priority inoculation groups, and improving access to technology and cultural communication. Social resilience to COVID-19 can be enhanced by both external interventions and internal regulation. Social resilience requires these two aspects to be coordinated to strengthen community and urban pandemic resilience.

Investigating Linkages Between Spatiotemporal Patterns of the COVID-19 Delta Variant and Public Health Interventions in Southeast Asia: Prospective Space-Time Scan Statistical Analysis Method

Background

The COVID-19 Delta variant has presented an unprecedented challenge to countries in Southeast Asia (SEA). Its transmission has shown spatial heterogeneity in SEA after countries have adopted different public health interventions during the process. Hence, it is crucial for public health authorities to discover potential linkages between epidemic progression and corresponding interventions such that collective and coordinated control measurements can be designed to increase their effectiveness at reducing transmission in SEA.

Objective

The purpose of this study is to explore potential linkages between the spatiotemporal progression of the COVID-19 Delta variant and nonpharmaceutical intervention (NPI) measures in SEA. We detected the space-time clusters of outbreaks of COVID-19 and analyzed how the NPI measures relate to the propagation of COVID-19.

Methods

We collected district-level daily new cases of COVID-19 from June 1 to October 31, 2021, and district-level population data in SEA. We adopted prospective space-time scan statistics to identify the space-time clusters. Using cumulative prospective space-time scan statistics, we further identified variations of relative risk (RR) across each district at a half-month interval and their potential public health intervention linkages.

Results

We found 7 high-risk clusters (clusters 1-7) of COVID-19 transmission in Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia between June and August, 2021, with an RR of 5.45 (P<.001), 3.50 (P<.001), 2.30 (P<.001), 1.36 (P<.001), 5.62 (P<.001), 2.38 (P<.001), 3.45 (P<.001), respectively. There were 34 provinces in Indonesia that have successfully mitigated the risk of COVID-19, with a decreasing range between –0.05 and –1.46 due to the assistance of continuous restrictions. However, 58.6% of districts in Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and the Philippines saw an increase in the infection risk, which is aligned with their loosened restrictions. Continuous strict interventions were effective in mitigating COVID-19, while relaxing restrictions may exacerbate the propagation risk of this epidemic.

Conclusions

The analyses of space-time clusters and RRs of districts benefit public health authorities with continuous surveillance of COVID-19 dynamics using real-time data. International coordination with more synchronized interventions amidst all SEA countries may play a key role in mitigating the progression of COVID-19.

The role of remote sensing during a global disaster: COVID-19 pandemic as case study

Remotely sensed imagery is used as a tool to aid decision makers and scientists in a variety of fields. A recent world event in which satellite imagery was extensively relied on by a variety of stakeholders was the COVID-19 pandemic. In this article we aim to give an overview of the types of information offered through remote sensing (RS) to help address different issues related to the pandemic. We also discuss about the stakeholders that benefited from the data, and the value added by its availability. The content is presented under four sub-sections; namely (1) the use of RS in real-time decision-making and strategic planning during the pandemic; how RS revealed the (2) environmental changes and (3) social and economic impacts caused by the pandemic. And (4) how RS informed our understanding of the epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2, the pathogen responsible for the pandemic. High resolution optical imagery offered updated on-the-ground data for e.g., humanitarian aid organizations, and informed operational decision making of shipping companies. Change in the intensity of air and water pollution after reduced anthropogenic activities around the world were captured by remote sensing - supplying concrete evidence that can help inform improved environmental policy. Several economic indicators were measured from satellite imagery, showing the spatiotemporal component of economic impacts caused by the global pandemic. Finally, satellite based meteorological data supported epidemiological studies of environmental disease determinants. The varied use of remote sensing during the COVID-19 pandemic affirms the value of this technology to society, especially in times of large-scale disasters.

Integrating GIS in reorganizing blood supply network in a robust-stochastic approach by combating disruption damages

As supplying adequate blood in multiple countries has failed due to the Covid-19 pandemic, the importance of redesigning a sensible protective-resilience blood supply chain is underscored. The outbreak-as an extensive disruption-has caused a delay in ordering and delivering blood and its by-products, which leads to severe social and financial loss to healthcare organizations. This paper presents a robust multi-phase optimization approach to model a blood supply network ensuring blood is collected efficiently. We evaluate the effectiveness of the model using real-world data from two mechanisms. Firstly, a Geographic Information System (GIS)-based method is presented to find potential alternative locations for blood donation centers to maximize availability, accessibility, and proximity to blood donors. Then, a protective mathematical model is developed with the incorporation of (a) blood perishability, (b) efficient collation centers, (c) multiple-source of suppliers, (d) back-up centers, (e) capacity limitation, and (f) uncertain demand. Emergency back-up for laboratory centers to supplement and offset the processing plants against the possible disorders is applied in a two-stage stochastic robust optimization model to maximize the level of hospitals' coverage. The results highlight the fraction cost of considering back-up facilities in the total costs and provide more resilient decisions with lower risks by examining resource limitations.

Perspectives from remote sensing to investigate the COVID-19 pandemic: A future-oriented approach

As scientific technology and space science progress, remote sensing has emerged as an innovative solution to ease the challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic. To examine the research characteristics and growth trends in using remote sensing for monitoring and managing the COVID-19 research, a bibliometric analysis was conducted on the scientific documents appearing in the Scopus database. A total of 1,509 documents on this study topic were indexed between 2020 and 2022, covering 165 countries, 577 journals, 5239 institutions, and 8,616 authors. The studies related to remote sensing and COVID-19 have a significant increase of 30% with 464 articles. The United States (429 articles, 28.42% of the global output), China (295 articles, 19.54% of the global output), and the United Kingdom (174 articles, 11.53%) appeared as the top three most contributions to the literature related to remote sensing and COVID-19 research. Sustainability, Science of the Total Environment, and International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health were the three most productive journals in this research field. The utmost predominant themes were COVID-19, remote sensing, spatial analysis, coronavirus, lockdown, and air pollution. The expansion of these topics appears to be associated with cross-sectional research on remote sensing, evidence-based tools, satellite mapping, and geographic information systems (GIS). Global pandemic risks will be monitored and managed much more effectively in the coming years with the use of remote sensing technology.

Generating High-Granularity COVID-19 Territorial Early Alerts Using Emergency Medical Services and Machine Learning

The pandemic of COVID-19 has posed unprecedented threats to healthcare systems worldwide. Great efforts were spent to fight the emergency, with the widespread use of cutting-edge technologies, especially big data analytics and AI. In this context, the present study proposes a novel combination of geographical filtering and machine learning (ML) for the development and optimization of a COVID-19 early alert system based on Emergency Medical Services (EMS) data, for the anticipated identification of outbreaks with very high granularity, up to single municipalities. The model, implemented for the region of Lombardy, Italy, showed robust performance, with an overall 80% accuracy in identifying the active spread of the disease. The further post-processing of the output was implemented to classify the territory into five risk classes, resulting in effectively anticipating the demand for interventions by EMS. This model shows state-of-art potentiality for future applications in the early detection of the burden of the impact of COVID-19, or other similar epidemics, on the healthcare system.

Integrating Multiscale Geospatial Environmental Data into Large Population Health Studies: Challenges and Opportunities

Quantifying the exposome is key to understanding how the environment impacts human health and disease. However, accurately, and cost-effectively quantifying exposure in large population health studies remains a major challenge. Geospatial technologies offer one mechanism to integrate high-dimensional environmental data into epidemiology studies, but can present several challenges. In June 2021, the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (NIEHS) held a workshop bringing together experts in exposure science, geospatial technologies, data science and population health to address the need for integrating multiscale geospatial environmental data into large population health studies. The primary objectives of the workshop were to highlight recent applications of geospatial technologies to examine the relationships between environmental exposures and health outcomes; identify research gaps and discuss future directions for exposure modeling, data integration and data analysis strategies; and facilitate communications and collaborations across geospatial and population health experts. This commentary provides a high-level overview of the scientific topics covered by the workshop and themes that emerged as areas for future work, including reducing measurement errors and uncertainty in exposure estimates, and improving data accessibility, data interoperability, and computational approaches for more effective multiscale and multi-source data integration, along with potential solutions.

Examining the COVID-19 case growth rate due to visitor vs. local mobility in the United States using machine learning

Travel patterns and mobility affect the spread of infectious diseases like COVID-19. However, we do not know to what extent local vs. visitor mobility affects the growth in the number of cases. This study evaluates the impact of state-level local vs. visitor mobility in understanding the growth with respect to the number of cases for COVID spread in the United States between March 1, 2020, and December 31, 2020. Two metrics, namely local and visitor transmission risk, were extracted from mobility data to capture the transmission potential of COVID-19 through mobility. A combination of the three factors: the current number of cases, local transmission risk, and the visitor transmission risk, are used to model the future number of cases using various machine learning models. The factors that contribute to better forecast performance are the ones that impact the number of cases. The statistical significance of the forecasts is also evaluated using the Diebold-Mariano test. Finally, the performance of models is compared for three waves across all 50 states. The results show that visitor mobility significantly impacts the case growth by improving the prediction accuracy by 33.78%. We also observe that the impact of visitor mobility is more pronounced during the first peak, i.e., March-June 2020.

Methods Used in the Spatial and Spatiotemporal Analysis of COVID-19 Epidemiology: A Systematic Review

The spread of the COVID-19 pandemic was spatially heterogeneous around the world; the transmission of the disease is driven by complex spatial and temporal variations in socioenvironmental factors. Spatial tools are useful in supporting COVID-19 control programs. A substantive review of the merits of the methodological approaches used to understand the spatial epidemiology of the disease is hardly undertaken. In this study, we reviewed the methodological approaches used to identify the spatial and spatiotemporal variations of COVID-19 and the socioeconomic, demographic and climatic drivers of such variations. We conducted a systematic literature search of spatial studies of COVID-19 published in English from Embase, Scopus, Medline, and Web of Science databases from 1 January 2019 to 7 September 2021. Methodological quality assessments were also performed using the Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI) risk of bias tool. A total of 154 studies met the inclusion criteria that used frequentist (85%) and Bayesian (15%) modelling approaches to identify spatial clusters and the associated risk factors. Bayesian models in the studies incorporated various spatial, temporal and spatiotemporal effects into the modelling schemes. This review highlighted the need for more local-level advanced Bayesian spatiotemporal modelling through the multi-level framework for COVID-19 prevention and control strategies.

Temporal and Spatial Evolution of the African Swine Fever Epidemic in Vietnam

African swine fever (ASF) is a severe infectious disease affecting domestic and wild suids. Spatiotemporal dynamics analysis of the ASF is crucial to understanding its transmission. The ASF broke out in Vietnam in February 2019. The research on the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of ASF in Vietnam is lacking. Spatiotemporal statistical methods, including direction analysis, spatial autocorrelation analysis, and spatiotemporal scan statistics were used to reveal the dynamics of the spatial diffusion direction and spatiotemporal aggregation characteristics of ASF in Vietnam. According to the cessation of the epidemic, it was divided into three phases: February to August 2019 (phase 1), April to December 2020 (phase 2), and January 2021 to March 2022 (phase 3). The ASF showed a significant spread trend from north to south in phase 1. The occurrence rate of the ASF aggregated spatially in phase 1 and became random in phases 2 and 3. The high−high ASF clusters (the province was a high cluster and both it and its neighbors had a high ASF occurrence rate) were concentrated in the north in phases 1 and 2. Four spatiotemporal high-risk ASF clusters were identified with a mean radius of 121.88 km. In general, there were significant concentrated outbreak areas and directional spread in the early stage and small-scale, high-frequency, and randomly scattered outbreaks in the later stage. The findings could contribute to a deeper understanding of the spatiotemporal spread of the ASF in Vietnam.

Application of Data Science for Cluster Analysis of COVID-19 Mortality According to Sociodemographic Factors at Municipal Level in Mexico

Mexico is among the five countries with the largest number of reported deaths from COVID-19 disease, and the mortality rates associated to infections are heterogeneous in the country due to structural factors concerning population. This study aims at the analysis of clusters related to mortality rate from COVID-19 at the municipal level in Mexico from the perspective of Data Science. In this sense, a new application is presented that uses a machine learning hybrid algorithm for generating clusters of municipalities with similar values of sociodemographic indicators and mortality rates. To provide a systematic framework, we applied an extension of the International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) methodology called Batch Foundation Methodology for Data Science (FMDS). For the study, 1,086,743 death certificates corresponding to the year 2020 were used, among other official data. As a result of the analysis, two key indicators related to mortality from COVID-19 at the municipal level were identified: one is population density and the other is percentage of population in poverty. Based on these indicators, 16 municipality clusters were determined. Among the main results of this research, it was found that clusters with high values of mortality rate had high values of population density and low poverty levels. In contrast, clusters with low density values and high poverty levels had low mortality rates. Finally, we think that the patterns found, expressed as municipality clusters with similar characteristics, can be useful for decision making by health authorities regarding disease prevention and control for reinforcing public health measures and optimizing resource distribution for reducing hospitalizations and mortality.

Effect of socioeconomic factors during the early COVID-19 pandemic: a spatial analysis

BACKGROUND

Spatial variability of COVID-19 cases may suggest geographic disparities of social determinants of health. Spatial analyses of population-level data may provide insight on factors that may contribute to COVID-19 transmission, hospitalization, and death.

METHODS

Generalized additive models were used to map COVID-19 risk from March 2020 to February 2021 in Orange County (OC), California. We geocoded and analyzed 221,843 cases to OC census tracts within a Poisson framework while smoothing over census tract centroids. Location was randomly permuted 1000 times to test for randomness. We also separated the analyses temporally to observe if risk changed over time. COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths were mapped across OC while adjusting for population-level demographic data in crude and adjusted models.

RESULTS

Risk for COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths were statistically significant in northern OC. Adjustment for demographic data substantially decreased spatial risk, but areas remained statistically significant. Inclusion of location within our models considerably decreased the magnitude of risk compared to univariate models. However, percent minority (adjusted RR: 1.06, 95%CI: 1.06, 1.07), average household size (aRR: 1.06, 95%CI: 1.05, 1.07), and percent service industry (aRR: 1.05, 95%CI: 1.04, 1.06) remained significantly associated with COVID-19 risk in adjusted spatial models. In addition, areas of risk did not change between surges and risk ratios were similar for hospitalizations and deaths.

CONCLUSION

Significant risk factors and areas of increased risk were identified in OC in our adjusted models and suggests that social and environmental factors contribute to the spread of COVID-19 within communities. Areas in north OC remained significant despite adjustment, but risk substantially decreased. Additional investigation of risk factors may provide insight on how to protect vulnerable populations in future infectious disease outbreaks.

Artificial intelligence against the first wave of COVID-19: evidence from China

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic unexpectedly broke out at the end of 2019. Due to the highly contagious, widespread, and risky nature of this disease, the pandemic prevention and control has been a tremendous challenge worldwide. One potentially powerful tool against the COVID-19 pandemic is artificial intelligence (AI). This study systematically assessed the effectiveness of AI in infection prevention and control during the first wave of COVID-19 in China.  METHODS: To better evaluate the role of AI in a pandemic emergency, we focused on the first-wave COVID-19 in the period from the early December 2019 to the end of April 2020 across 304 cities in China. We employed three sets of dependent variables to capture various dimensions of the effect of AI: (1) the time to the peak of cumulative confirmed cases, (2) the case fatality rate and whether there were severe cases, and (3) the number of local policies for work and production resumption and the time span to having the first such policy. The main explanatory variable was the local AI development measured by the number of AI patents. To fit the features of different dependent variables, we employed a variety of estimation methods, including the OLS, Tobit, Probit, and Poisson estimations. We included a large set of control variables and added interaction terms to test the mechanisms through which AI took an effect.

RESULTS

Our results showed that AI had highly significant effects on (1) screening and detecting the disease, and (2) monitoring and evaluating the epidemic evolution. Specifically, AI was useful to screen and detect the COVID-19 in cities with high cross-city mobility. Also, AI played an important role for production resumption in cities with high risk to reopen. However, there was limited evidence supporting the effectiveness of AI in the diagnosis and treatment of the disease.

CONCLUSIONS

These results suggested that AI can play an important role against the pandemic.

GIS-based classroom management system to support COVID-19 social distance planning

Schools across the United States and around the world canceled in-person classes beginning in March 2020 to contain the spread of the COVID-19 virus, a public health emergency. Many empirical pieces of research have demonstrated that educational institutions aid students’ overall growth and studies have stressed the importance of prioritizing in-person learning to cultivate social values through education. Two years into the COVID-19 pandemic, policymakers and school administrators have been making plans to reopen schools. However, few scientific studies had been done to support planning classroom seating while complying with the social distancing policy. To ensure a safe return to campus, we designed a ‘community-safe’ method for classroom management that incorporates social distancing and computes seating capacity. In this paper, we present custom GIS tools developed for two types of classroom settings – classrooms with fixed seating and classrooms with movable seating. The fixed model tool is based on an optimized backtracking algorithm. Our flexible model tool can consider various classroom dimensions, fixtures, and a safe social distance. The tool is built on a python script that can be executed to calculate revised seating capacity to maintain a safe social distance for any defined space. We present a real-world implementation of the system at Eastern Michigan University, United States, where it was used to support campus reopening planning in 2020. Our proposed GIS-based technique could be applicable for seating planning in other indoor and outdoor settings.

Identifying spatiotemporal patterns of COVID-19 transmissions and the drivers of the patterns in Toronto: a Bayesian hierarchical spatiotemporal modelling

Spatiotemporal patterns and trends of COVID-19 at a local spatial scale using Bayesian approaches are hardly observed in literature. Also, studies rarely use satellite-derived long time-series data on the environment to predict COVID-19 risk at a spatial scale. In this study, we modelled the COVID-19 pandemic risk using a Bayesian hierarchical spatiotemporal model that incorporates satellite-derived remote sensing data on land surface temperature (LST) from January 2020 to October 2021 (89 weeks) and several socioeconomic covariates of the 140 neighbourhoods in Toronto. The spatial patterns of risk were heterogeneous in space with multiple high-risk neighbourhoods in Western and Southern Toronto. Higher risk was observed during Spring 2021. The spatiotemporal risk patterns identified 60% of neighbourhoods had a stable, 37% had an increasing, and 2% had a decreasing trend over the study period. LST was positively, and higher education was negatively associated with the COVID-19 incidence. We believe the use of Bayesian spatial modelling and the remote sensing technologies in this study provided a strong versatility and strengthened our analysis in identifying the spatial risk of COVID-19. The findings would help in prevention planning, and the framework of this study may be replicated in other highly transmissible infectious diseases.

Spatiotemporal clustering patterns and sociodemographic determinants of COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) infections in Helsinki, Finland

This study aims to elucidate the variations in spatiotemporal patterns and sociodemographic determinants of SARS-CoV-2 infections in Helsinki, Finland. Global and local spatial autocorrelation were inspected with Moran's I and LISA statistics, and Getis-Ord Gi* statistics was used to identify the hot spot areas. Space-time statistics were used to detect clusters of high relative risk and regression models were implemented to explain sociodemographic determinants for the clusters. The findings revealed the presence of spatial autocorrelation and clustering of COVID-19 cases. High-high clusters and high relative risk areas emerged primarily in Helsinki's eastern neighborhoods, which are socioeconomically vulnerable, with a few exceptions revealing local outbreaks in other areas. The variation in COVID-19 rates was largely explained by median income and the number of foreign citizens in the population. Furthermore, the use of multiple spatiotemporal analysis methods are recommended to gain deeper insights into the complex spatiotemporal clustering patterns and sociodemographic determinants of the COVID-19 cases.

Coronavirus disease vulnerability map using a geographic information system (GIS) from 16 April to 16 May 2020

In recent months, the world has been affected by the infectious coronavirus disease and Iran is one of the most affected countries. The Iranian government's health facilities for an urgent investigation of all provinces do not exist simultaneously. There is no management tool to identify the vulnerabilities of Iranian provinces in prioritizing health services. The aim of this study was to prepare a coronavirus vulnerability map of Iranian provinces using geographic information system (GIS) to monitor the disease. For this purpose, four criteria affecting coronavirus, including population density, percentage of older people, temperature, and humidity, were prepared in the GIS. A multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) model was used to determine the vulnerability of coronavirus in Iran. An adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) model was used to predict vulnerability in the next two months. Results indicated that, population density and older people have a more significant impact on coronavirus in Iran. Based on MGWR models, Tehran, Mazandaran, Gilan, and Alborz provinces were more vulnerable to coronavirus in February and March. The ANFIS model findings showed that West Azerbaijan, Zanjan, Fars, Yazd, Semnan, Sistan and Baluchistan, and Tehran provinces were more vulnerable in April and May.

Spatial clustering behaviour of Covid-19 conditioned by the development level: Case study for the administrative units in Romania

Spatial analyses related to Covid-19 have been so far conducted at county, regional or national level, without a thorough assessment at the continuous local level of administrative-territorial units like cities, towns, or communes. To address this gap, we employ daily data on the infection rate provided for Romanian administrative units from March to May 2021. Using the global and local Moran I spatial autocorrelation coefficients, we identify significant clustering processes in the Covid-19 infection rate. Additional analysis based on spatially smoothed rate maps and spatial regressions prove that this clustering pattern is influenced by the development level of localities, proxied by unemployment rate and Local Human Development Index. Results show the features of the 3rd wave in Romania, characterized by a quadratic trend.

Environmental factors and spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of the global outbreaks of the highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1

The spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 has posed a major threat to global public health. Understanding the spatiotemporal outbreak characteristics and environmental factors of H5N1 outbreaks is of great significance for the establishment of effective prevention and control systems. The time and location of H5N1 outbreaks in poultry and wild birds officially confirmed by the World Organization for Animal Health from 2005 to 2019 were collected. Spatial autocorrelation analysis and multidistance spatial agglomeration analysis methods were used to analyze the global outbreak sites of H5N1. Combined with remote sensing data, the correlation between H5N1 outbreaks and environmental factors was analyzed using binary logistic regression methods. We analyzed the correlation between the H5N1 outbreak and environmental factors and finally made a risk prediction for the global H5N1 outbreaks. The results show that the peak of the H5N1 outbreaks occurs in winter and spring. H5N1 outbreaks exhibit aggregation, and a weak aggregation phenomenon is noted on the scale close to 5000 km. Water distance, road distance, railway distance, wind speed, leaf area index (LAI), and specific humidity were protective factors for the outbreak of H5N1, and the odds ratio (OR) were 0.985, 0.989, 0.995, 0.717, 0.832, and 0.935, respectively. Temperature was a risk factor with an OR of 1.073. The significance of these ORs was greater than 95%. The global risk prediction map was obtained. Given that the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) is spreading globally, the methods and results of this study can provide a reference for studying the spread of COVID-19.

The Spatial Association of Demographic and Population Health Characteristics with COVID-19 Prevalence Across Districts in India

In less-developed countries, the lack of granular data limits the researcher's ability to study the spatial interaction of different factors on the COVID-19 pandemic. This study designs a novel database to examine the spatial effects of demographic and population health factors on COVID-19 prevalence across 640 districts in India. The goal is to provide a robust understanding of how spatial associations and the interconnections between places influence disease spread. In addition to the linear Ordinary Least Square regression model, three spatial regression models-Spatial Lag Model, Spatial Error Model, and Geographically Weighted Regression are employed to study and compare the variables explanatory power in shaping geographic variations in the COVID-19 prevalence. We found that the local GWR model is more robust and effective at predicting spatial relationships. The findings indicate that among the demographic factors, a high share of the population living in slums is positively associated with a higher incidence of COVID-19 across districts. The spatial variations in COVID-19 deaths were explained by obesity and high blood sugar, indicating a strong association between pre-existing health conditions and COVID-19 fatalities. The study brings forth the critical factors that expose the poor and vulnerable populations to severe public health risks and highlight the application of geographical analysis vis-a-vis spatial regression models to help explain those associations.

Global prediction model for COVID-19 pandemic with the characteristics of the multiple peaks and local fluctuations

Background

With the spread of COVID-19, the time-series prediction of COVID-19 has become a research hotspot. Unlike previous epidemics, COVID-19 has a new pattern of long-time series, large fluctuations, and multiple peaks. Traditional dynamical models are limited to curves with short-time series, single peak, smoothness, and symmetry. Secondly, most of these models have unknown parameters, which bring greater ambiguity and uncertainty. There are still major shortcomings in the integration of multiple factors, such as human interventions, environmental factors, and transmission mechanisms.

Methods

A dynamical model with only infected humans and removed humans was established. Then the process of COVID-19 spread was segmented using a local smoother. The change of infection rate at different stages was quantified using the continuous and periodic Logistic growth function to quantitatively describe the comprehensive effects of natural and human factors. Then, a non-linear variable and NO₂ concentrations were introduced to qualify the number of people who have been prevented from infection through human interventions.

Results

The experiments and analysis showed the R² of fitting for the US, UK, India, Brazil, Russia, and Germany was 0.841, 0.977, 0.974, 0.659, 0.992, and 0.753, respectively. The prediction accuracy of the US, UK, India, Brazil, Russia, and Germany in October was 0.331, 0.127, 0.112, 0.376, 0.043, and 0.445, respectively.

Conclusion

The model can not only better describe the effects of human interventions but also better simulate the temporal evolution of COVID-19 with local fluctuations and multiple peaks, which can provide valuable assistant decision-making information.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12874-022-01604-x.

Forest Area, CO2 Emission, and COVID-19 Case-Fatality Rate: A Worldwide Ecological Study Using Spatial Regression Analysis

Spatial analysis is essential to understand the spreading of the COVID-19 pandemic. Due to numerous factors of multi-disciplines involved, the current pandemic is yet fully known. Hence, the current study aimed to expand the knowledge on the pandemic by exploring the roles of forests and CO2 emission in the COVID-19 case-fatality rate (CFR) at the global level. Data were captured on the forest coverage rate and CO2 emission per capita from 237 countries. Meanwhile, extra demographic and socioeconomic variables were also included to adjust for potential confounding. Associations between the forest coverage rate and CO2 emission per capita and the COVID-19 CFR were assessed using spatial regression analysis, and the results were further stratified by country income levels. Although no distinct association between the COVID-19 CFR and forest coverage rate or CO2 emission per capita was found worldwide, we found that a 10% increase in forest coverage rates was associated with a 2.37‰ (95%CI: 3.12, 1.62) decrease in COVID-19 CFRs in low-income countries; and a 10% increase in CO2 emission per capita was associated with a 0.94‰ (95%CI: 1.46, 0.42) decrease in COVID-19 CFRs in low-middle-income countries. Since a strong correlation was observed between the CO2 emission per capita and GDP per capita (r = 0.89), we replaced CO2 emission with GDP and obtained similar results. Our findings suggest a higher forest coverage may be a protective factor in low-income countries, which may be related to their low urbanization levels and high forest accessibilities. On the other hand, CO2 can be a surrogate of GDP, which may be a critical factor likely to decrease the COVID-19 CFR in lower-middle-income countries.

Ten GIS-Based Solutions for Managing and Controlling COVID-19 Pandemic Outbreak

The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has caused disastrous results in most countries of the world. It has rapidly spread across the globe with over 156 million cumulative confirmed cases and 3.264 million deaths to date, according to World Health Organization (WHO) Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard. With these huge amounts of causalities in the world, Geographic Information Systems (GIS) as a computer-based analyzer could help governments, experts, medical staff, and citizens to prevent and respond to the incidence. On the other hand, the COVID-19 pandemic involves many unknown parameters where most of them have a spatial dimension. Thus, spatial analysis and GIS could provide appropriate decision-making tools, predictive models, statistical methods, and new technologies for COVID-19 outbreak control, also help the people for avoiding direct contact and preserving social distance. This article aims to review the most promising categories of GIS-based solutions in this domain. We divided the solutions into ten classes including spatio-temporal analysis, SDSS approaches, geo-business, context-aware recommendation systems, participatory GIS and volunteered geographic information (VGI), internet of things (IoT), location-based service (LBS), web mapping, satellite imagery-based analysis, and waste management. The main contribution of this paper is proposing different geospatial guidelines that could provide reliable and useful protocols for COVID-19 outbreak control to minimize causalities, restrict incidence, establish effective urban communication, provide new approaches for business in lockdown situations, telehealth treatment, patient monitoring, adaptive decision making, and visualize trend analysis.

Do spatiotemporal units matter for exploring the microgeographies of epidemics?

From the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, studies on the microgeographies of epidemics have surged. However, studies have neglected the significant impact of multiple spatiotemporal units, such as report timestamps and spatial scales. This study examines three cities with localized COVID-19 resurgence after the first wave of the pandemic in mainland China to estimate the differential impact of spatiotemporal unit on exploring the influencing factors of epidemic spread at the microscale. The quantitative analysis results suggest that future spatial epidemiology research should give greater attention to the "symptom onset" timestamp instead of only the "confirmed" data and that "spatial transmission" should not be confused with "spatial sprawling" of epidemics, which can greatly reduce comparability between epidemiology studies. This research also highlights the importance of considering the modifiable areal unit problem (MAUP) and the uncertain geographic context problem (UGCoP) in future studies.

Lower COVID-19 Incidence in Low-Continentality West-Coast Areas of Europe

In March 2020, the first known cases of COVID-19 occurred in Europe. Subsequently, the pandemic developed a seasonal pattern. The incidence of COVID-19 comprises spatial heterogeneity and seasonal variations, with lower and/or shorter peaks resulting in lower total incidence and higher and/or longer peaks resulting higher total incidence. The reason behind this phenomena is still unclear. Unraveling factors that explain why certain places have higher versus lower total COVID-19 incidence can help health decision makers understand and plan for future waves of the pandemic. We test whether differences in the total incidence of COVID-19 within five European countries (Norway, Sweden, Germany, Italy, and Spain), correlate with two environmental factors: the Köppen-Geiger climate zones and the Continentality Index, while statistically controlling for crowding. Our results show that during the first 16 months of the pandemic (March 2020 to July 2021), climate zones with larger annual differences in temperature and annually distributed precipitation show a higher total incidence than climate zones with smaller differences in temperature and dry seasons. This coincides with lower continentality values. Total incidence increases with continentality, up to a Continentality Index value of 19, where a peak is reached in the semicontinental zone. Low continentality (high oceanic influence) appears to be a strong suppressing factor for COVID-19 spread. The incidence in our study area is lowest at open low continentality west coast areas.

Geospatial Analysis of a COVID-19 Outbreak at the University of Wisconsin - Madison: Potential Role of a Cluster of Local Bars

We combined smartphone mobility data with census track-based reports of positive case counts to study a coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak at the University of Wisconsin–Madison campus, where nearly 3000 students had become infected by the end of September 2020. We identified a cluster of twenty bars located at the epicentre of the outbreak, in close proximity to campus residence halls. Smartphones originating from the two hardest-hit residence halls (Sellery-Witte), where about one in five students were infected, were 2.95 times more likely to visit the 20-bar cluster than smartphones originating in two more distant, less affected residence halls (Ogg-Smith). By contrast, smartphones from Sellery-Witte were only 1.55 times more likely than those from Ogg-Smith to visit a group of 68 restaurants in the same area [rate ratio 1.91, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.29–2.85, P < 0.001]. We also determined the per-capita rates of visitation to the 20-bar cluster and to the 68-restaurant comparison group by smartphones originating in each of 21 census tracts in the university area. In a multivariate instrumental variables regression, the visitation rate to the bar cluster was a significant determinant of the per-capita incidence of positive severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) tests in each census tract (elasticity 0.88, 95% CI 0.08–1.68, P = 0.032), while the restaurant visitation rate showed no such relationship. The potential super-spreader effects of clusters or networks of places, rather than individual sites, require further attention.

Geospatial evaluation of COVID-19 mortality: Influence of socio-economic status and underlying health conditions in contiguous USA

Since its outbreak, COVID-19 disease has claimed over one hundred thousand lives in the United States, resulting to multiple and complex nation-wide challenges. In this study, we employ global and local regression models to assess the influence of socio-economic and health conditions on COVID-19 mortality in contiguous USA. For a start, stepwise and exploratory regression models were employed to isolate the main explanatory variables for COVID-19 mortality from the ensemble 33 socio-economic and health parameters between January 1st and 16th of September 2020. Preliminary results showed that only five out of the examined variables (case fatality rate, vulnerable population, poverty, percentage of adults that report no leisure-time physical activity, and percentage of the population with access to places for physical activity) can explain the variability of COVID-19 mortality across the Counties of contiguous USA within the study period. Consequently, we employ three global and two local regression algorithms to model the relationship between COVID-19 and the isolated socio-economic and health variables. The outcomes of the regression analyses show that the adopted models can explain 61%-81% of COVID-19 mortality across the contiguous USA within the study period. However, MGWR yielded the highest R2 (0.81) and lowest AICc values (4031), emphasizing that it is the most efficient among the adopted regression models. The computed average adjusted R2 values show that local regression models (mean adj. R2 = 0.80) outperformed the global regression models (mean adj. R2 = 0.64), indicating that the former is ideal for modeling spatial causal relationships. The GIS-based optimized cluster analyses results show that hotspots for COVID-19 mortality as well as socioeconomic variables are mostly delineated in the South, Mid-West and Northeast of contiguous USA. COVID-19 mortality exhibited positive and significant association with black race (0.51), minority (0.48) and poverty (0.34). Whereas, the percentage of persons that attended college was negatively associated with poverty (-0.51), obesity (-0.50) and diabetes (-0.45). Results show that education is crucial to improve socio-economic and health conditions of the Americans. We conclude that investing in people's standard of living would reduce the vulnerability of an entire population.

OpenStreetMap Contribution to Local Data Ecosystems in COVID-19 Times: Experiences and Reflections from the Italian Case

Data and digital technologies have been at the core of the societal response to COVID-19 since the beginning of the pandemic. This work focuses on the specific contribution of the OpenStreetMap (OSM) project to address the early stage of the COVID-19 crisis (approximately from February to May 2020) in Italy. Several activities initiated by the Italian OSM community are described, including: mapping ‘red zones’ (the first municipalities affected by the emergency); updating OSM pharmacies based on the authoritative dataset from the Ministry of Health; adding information on delivery services of commercial activities during COVID-19 times; publishing web maps to offer COVID-19-specific information at the local level; and developing software tools to help collect new data. Those initiatives are analysed from a data ecosystem perspective, identifying the actors, data and data flows involved, and reflecting on the enablers and barriers for their success from a technical, organisational and legal point of view. The OSM project itself is then assessed in the wider European policy context, in particular against the objectives of the recent European strategy for data, highlighting opportunities and challenges for scaling successful approaches such as those to fight COVID-19 from the local to the national and European scales.

Epidemiological geography at work: An exploratory review about the overall findings of spatial analysis applied to the study of CoViD-19 propagation along the first pandemic year

The present work aims to give an overview on the international scientific papers related to the territorial spreading of SARS-CoV-2, with a specific focus upon applied quantitative geography and territorial analysis, to define a general structure for epidemiological geography research. The target publications were based on GIS spatial analysis, both in the sense of topological analysis and descriptive statistics or lato sensu geographical approaches. The first basic purpose was to organize and enhance the vast knowledge developments generated hitherto by the first pandemic that was studied "on-the-fly" all over the world. The consequent target was to investigate to what extent researchers in geography were able to draw scientifically consistent conclusions about the pandemic evolution, as well as whether wider generalizations could be reasonably claimed. This implied an analysis and a comparison of their findings. Finally, we tested what geographic approaches can say about the pandemic and whether a reliable spatial analysis routine for mapping infectious diseases could be extrapolated. We selected papers proposed for publication during 2020 and 209 articles complied with our parameters of query. The articles were divided in seven categories to enhance existing commonalities. In some cases, converging conclusions were extracted, and generalizations were derived. In other cases, contrasting or inconsistent findings were found, and possible explanations were provided. From the results of our survey, we extrapolated a routine for the production of epidemiological geography analyses, we highlighted the different steps of investigation that were attained, and we underlined the most critical nodes of the methodology. Our findings may help to point out what are the most critical conceptual challenges of epidemiological mapping, and where it might improve to engender informed conclusions and aware outcomes.

A spatio-temporal study of state-wide case-fatality risks during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico

spatio-temporal analysis of the first wave of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic in Mexico (April to September 2020) was performed by state. Descriptive analyses through diagrams, mapping, animations and time series representations were carried out. Greater risks were observed at certain times in specific regions. Various trends and clusters were observed and analysed by fitting linear mixed models and time series clustering. The association of co-morbidities and other variables were studied by fitting a spatial panel data linear model (SPLM). On average, the greatest risks were observed in Baja California Norte, Chiapas and Sonora, while some other densely populated states, e.g., Mexico City, had lower values. The trends varied by state and a four-order polynomial, including fixed and random effects, was necessary to model them. The most common risk development was observed in states belonging to two clusters and consisted of an initial increase followed by a decrease. Some states presented cluster configurations with a retarded risk increase before the decrease, while the risk increased throughout the time of study in others. A cyclic behaviour with a second increasing trend was also observed in some states. The SPLM approach revealed a positive significant association with respect to case fatality risk between certain groups, such as males and individuals aged 50 years and more, and the prevalence of chronic kidney disease, cardiovascular disease, asthma and hypertension. The analysis may provide valuable insight into COVID-19 dynamics applicable in future outbreaks, as well as identify determinants signifying certain trends at the state level. The combination of spatial and temporal information may provide a better understanding of the fatalities due to COVID-19.

Leveraging Polio Geographic Information System Platforms in the African Region for Mitigating COVID-19 Contact Tracing and Surveillance Challenges: Viewpoint

BACKGROUND

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic in Africa is an urgent public health crisis. Estimated models projected over 150,000 deaths and 4,600,000 hospitalizations in the first year of the disease in the absence of adequate interventions. Therefore, electronic contact tracing and surveillance have critical roles in decreasing COVID-19 transmission; yet, if not conducted properly, these methods can rapidly become a bottleneck for synchronized data collection, case detection, and case management. While the continent is currently reporting relatively low COVID-19 cases, digitized contact tracing mechanisms and surveillance reporting are necessary for standardizing real-time reporting of new chains of infection in order to quickly reverse growing trends and halt the pandemic.

OBJECTIVE

This paper aims to describe a COVID-19 contact tracing smartphone app that includes health facility surveillance with a real-time visualization platform. The app was developed by the AFRO (African Regional Office) GIS (geographic information system) Center, in collaboration with the World Health Organization (WHO) emergency preparedness and response team. The app was developed through the expertise and experience gained from numerous digital apps that had been developed for polio surveillance and immunization via the WHO's polio program in the African region.

METHODS

We repurposed the GIS infrastructures of the polio program and the database structure that relies on mobile data collection that is built on the Open Data Kit. We harnessed the technology for visualization of real-time COVID-19 data using dynamic dashboards built on Power BI, ArcGIS Online, and Tableau. The contact tracing app was developed with the pragmatic considerations of COVID-19 peculiarities. The app underwent testing by field surveillance colleagues to meet the requirements of linking contacts to cases and monitoring chains of transmission. The health facility surveillance app was developed from the knowledge and assessment of models of surveillance at the health facility level for other diseases of public health importance. The Integrated Supportive Supervision app was added as an appendage to the pre-existing paper-based surveillance form. These two mobile apps collected information on cases and contact tracing, alongside alert information on COVID-19 reports at the health facility level; the information was linked to visualization platforms in order to enable actionable insights.

RESULTS

The contact tracing app and platform were piloted between April and June 2020; they were then put to use in Zimbabwe, Benin, Cameroon, Uganda, Nigeria, and South Sudan, and their use has generated some palpable successes with respect to COVID-19 surveillance. However, the COVID-19 health facility-based surveillance app has been used more extensively, as it has been used in 27 countries in the region.

CONCLUSIONS

In light of the above information, this paper was written to give an overview of the app and visualization platform development, app and platform deployment, ease of replicability, and preliminary outcome evaluation of their use in the field. From a regional perspective, integration of contact tracing and surveillance data into one platform provides the AFRO with a more accurate method of monitoring countries' efforts in their response to COVID-19, while guiding public health decisions and the assessment of risk of COVID-19.

Spatial Analysis of COVID-19 Vaccine Centers Distribution: A Case Study of the City of Jeddah, Saudi Arabia

The COVID-19 pandemic is one of the most devastating public health emergencies in history. In late 2020 and after almost a year from the initial outbreak of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), several vaccines were approved and administered in most countries. Saudi Arabia has established COVID-19 vaccination centers in all regions. Various facilities were selected to set up these vaccination centers, including conference and exhibition centers, old airport terminals, pre-existing medical facilities, and primary healthcare centers. Deciding the number and locations of these facilities is a fundamental objective for successful epidemic responses to ensure the delivery of vaccines and other health services to the entire population. This study analyzed the spatial distribution of COVID-19 vaccination centers in Jeddah, a major city in Saudi Arabia, by using GIS tools and methods to provide insight on the effectiveness of the selection and distribution of the COVID-19 vaccination centers in terms of accessibility and coverage. Based on a spatial analysis of vaccine centers' coverage in 2020 and 2021 in Jeddah presented in this study, coverage deficiency would have been addressed earlier if the applied GIS analysis methods had been used by authorities while gradually increasing the number of vaccination centers. This study recommends that the Ministry of Health in Saudi Arabia evaluated the assigned vaccination centers to include the less-populated regions and to ensure equity and fairness in vaccine distribution. Adding more vaccine centers or reallocating some existing centers in the denser districts to increase the coverage in the uncovered sparse regions in Jeddah is also recommended. The methods applied in this study could be part of a strategic vaccination administration program for future public health emergencies and other vaccination campaigns.

Modeling the Spatial and Temporal Spread of COVID-19 in Poland Based on a Spatial Interaction Model

This article describes an original methodology for integrating global SIR-like epidemic models with spatial interaction models, which enables the forecasting of COVID-19 dynamics in Poland through time and space. Mobility level, estimated by the regional population density and distances among inhabitants, was the determining variable in the spatial interaction model. The spatiotemporal diffusion model, which allows the temporal prediction of case counts and the possibility of determining their spatial distribution, made it possible to forecast the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic at a regional level in Poland. This model was used to predict incidence in 380 counties in Poland, which represents a much more detailed modeling than NUTS 3 according to the widely used geocoding standard Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics. The research covered the entire territory of Poland in seven weeks of early 2021, just before the start of vaccination in Poland. The results were verified using official epidemiological data collected by sanitary and epidemiological stations. As the conducted analyses show, the application of the approach proposed in the article, integrating epidemiological models with spatial interaction models, especially unconstrained gravity models and destination (attraction) constrained models, leads to obtaining almost 90% of the coefficient of determination, which reflects the quality of the model’s fit with the spatiotemporal distribution of the validation data.

Compliance with the first UK covid-19 lockdown and the compounding effects of weather

The effectiveness of containment measures has been shown to depend on both epidemiological and sociological mechanisms, most notably compliance with national lockdown rules. Yet, there has been growing discontent with social distancing rules during national lockdowns across several countries, particularly among certain demographic and socio-economic groups. Using a highly granular dataset on compliance of over 105,000 individuals between March and May 2020 in the United Kingdom (UK), we find that compliance with lockdown policies was initially high in the overall population during the earlier phase of the pandemic, but that compliance fell substantially over time, especially among specific segments of society. Warmer temperatures increased the non-compliance of individuals who are male, divorced, part-time employed, and/or parent of more than two children. Thus, while epidemiologically the virus spread was naturally more limited during the warmer period of 2020, sociologically the higher temperature led to lower individual-level compliance with public health measures. As long as new strains emerge, governments may therefore be required to complement vaccination campaigns with targeted and time limited restrictions. Since non-complying individuals at the beginning of the pandemic share certain characteristics with vaccination sceptics, understanding their compliance behaviour will remain essential for future policymaking.

COVID-19 Variant Surveillance and Social Determinants in Central Massachusetts: Development Study (Preprint)

Background

Public health scientists have used spatial tools such as web-based Geographical Information System (GIS) applications to monitor and forecast the progression of the COVID-19 pandemic and track the impact of their interventions. The ability to track SARS-CoV-2 variants and incorporate the social determinants of health with street-level granularity can facilitate the identification of local outbreaks, highlight variant-specific geospatial epidemiology, and inform effective interventions. We developed a novel dashboard, the University of Massachusetts’ Graphical user interface for Geographic Information (MAGGI) variant tracking system that combines GIS, health-associated sociodemographic data, and viral genomic data to visualize the spatiotemporal incidence of SARS-CoV-2 variants with street-level resolution while safeguarding protected health information. The specificity and richness of the dashboard enhance the local understanding of variant introductions and transmissions so that appropriate public health strategies can be devised and evaluated.

Objective

We developed a web-based dashboard that simultaneously visualizes the geographic distribution of SARS-CoV-2 variants in Central Massachusetts, the social determinants of health, and vaccination data to support public health efforts to locally mitigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Methods

MAGGI uses a server-client model–based system, enabling users to access data and visualizations via an encrypted web browser, thus securing patient health information. We integrated data from electronic medical records, SARS-CoV-2 genomic analysis, and public health resources. We developed the following functionalities into MAGGI: spatial and temporal selection capability by zip codes of interest, the detection of variant clusters, and a tool to display variant distribution by the social determinants of health. MAGGI was built on the Environmental Systems Research Institute ecosystem and is readily adaptable to monitor other infectious diseases and their variants in real-time.

Results

We created a geo-referenced database and added sociodemographic and viral genomic data to the ArcGIS dashboard that interactively displays Central Massachusetts’ spatiotemporal variants distribution. Genomic epidemiologists and public health officials use MAGGI to show the occurrence of SARS-CoV-2 genomic variants at high geographic resolution and refine the display by selecting a combination of data features such as variant subtype, subject zip codes, or date of COVID-19–positive sample collection. Furthermore, they use it to scale time and space to visualize association patterns between socioeconomics, social vulnerability based on the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s social vulnerability index, and vaccination rates. We launched the system at the University of Massachusetts Chan Medical School to support internal research projects starting in March 2021.

Conclusions

We developed a COVID-19 variant surveillance dashboard to advance our geospatial technologies to study SARS-CoV-2 variants transmission dynamics. This real-time, GIS-based tool exemplifies how spatial informatics can support public health officials, genomics epidemiologists, infectious disease specialists, and other researchers to track and study the spread patterns of SARS-CoV-2 variants in our communities.

Prospective spatial-temporal clusters of COVID-19 in local communities: case study of Kansas City, Missouri, United States

Kansas City, Missouri, became one of the major United States hotspots for COVID-19 due to an increase in the rate of positive COVID-19 test results. Despite the large numbers of positive cases in Kansas City, MO, the spatial-temporal analysis of data has been less investigated. However, it is critical to detect emerging clusters of COVID-19 and enforce control and preventive policies within those clusters. We conducted a prospective Poisson spatial-temporal analysis of Kansas City, MO data to detect significant space-time clusters of COVID-19 positive cases at the zip code level in Kansas City, MO. The analysis focused on daily infected cases in four equal periods of 3 months. We detected temporal patterns of emerging and re-emerging space-time clusters between March 2020 and February 2021. Three statistically significant clusters emerged in the first period, mainly concentrated in downtown. It increased to seven clusters in the second period, spreading across a broader region in downtown and north of Kansas City. In the third period, nine clusters covered large areas of north and downtown Kansas City, MO. Ten clusters were present in the last period, further extending the infection along the State Line Road. The statistical results were communicated with local health officials and provided the necessary guidance for decision-making and allocating resources (e.g., vaccines and testing sites). As more data become available, statistical clustering can be used as a COVID-19 surveillance tool to measure the effects of vaccination.

The Geographical Distribution and Influencing Factors of COVID-19 in China

The study of the spatial differentiation of COVID-19 in cities and its driving mechanism is helpful to reveal the spatial distribution pattern, transmission mechanism and diffusion model, and evolution mechanism of the epidemic and can lay the foundation for constructing the spatial dynamics model of the epidemic and provide theoretical basis for the policy design, spatial planning and implementation of epidemic prevention and control and social governance. Geodetector (Origin version, Beijing, China) is a great tool for analysis of spatial differentiation and its influencing factors, and it provides decision support for differentiated policy design and its implementation in executing the city-specific policies. Using factor detection and interaction analysis of Geodetector, 15 indicators of economic, social, ecological, and environmental dimensions were integrated, and 143 cities were selected for the empirical research in China. The research shows that, first of all, risks of both infection and death show positive spatial autocorrelation, but the geographical distribution of local spatial autocorrelation differs significantly between the two. Secondly, the inequalities in urban economic, social, and residential environments interact with COVID-19 spatial heterogeneity, with stronger explanatory power especially when multidimensional inequalities are superimposed. Thirdly, the spatial distribution and spread of COVID-19 are highly spatially heterogeneous and correlated due to the complex influence of multiple factors, with factors such as Area of Urban Construction Land, GDP, Industrial Smoke and Dust Emission, and Expenditure having the strongest influence, the factors such as Area of Green, Number of Hospital Beds and Parks, and Industrial NOx Emissions having unignorable influence, while the factors such as Number of Free Parks and Industrial Enterprises, Per-GDP, and Population Density play an indirect role mainly by means of interaction. Fourthly, the factor interaction effect from the infected person's perspective mainly shows a nonlinear enhancement effect, that is, the joint influence of the two factors is greater than the sum of their direct influences; but from the perspective of the dead, it mainly shows a two-factor enhancement effect, that is, the joint influence of the two factors is greater than the maximum of their direct influences but less than their sum. Fifthly, some suggestions are put forward from the perspectives of building a healthy, resilient, safe, and smart city, providing valuable reference and decision basis for city governments to carry out differentiated policy design.

Wastewater-based epidemiology in hazard forecasting and early-warning systems for global health risks

With the advent of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, Wastewater-Based Epidemiology (WBE) has been applied to track community infection in cities worldwide and has proven succesful as an early warning system for identification of hotspots and changingprevalence of infections (both symptomatic and asymptomatic) at a city or sub-city level. Wastewater is only one of environmental compartments that requires consideration. In this manuscript, we have critically evaluated the knowledge-base and preparedness for building early warning systems in a rapidly urbanising world, with particular attention to Africa, which experiences rapid population growth and urbanisation. We have proposed a Digital Urban Environment Fingerprinting Platform (DUEF) - a new approach in hazard forecasting and early-warning systems for global health risks and an extension to the existing concept of smart cities. The urban environment (especially wastewater) contains a complex mixture of substances including toxic chemicals, infectious biological agents and human excretion products. DUEF assumes that these specific endo- and exogenous residues, anonymously pooled by communities' wastewater, are indicative of community-wide exposure and the resulting effects. DUEF postulates that the measurement of the substances continuously and anonymously pooled by the receiving environment (sewage, surface water, soils and air), can provide near real-time dynamic information about the quantity and type of physical, biological or chemical stressors to which the surveyed systems are exposed, and can create a risk profile on the potential effects of these exposures. Successful development and utilisation of a DUEF globally requires a tiered approach including: Stage I: network building, capacity building, stakeholder engagement as well as a conceptual model, followed by Stage II: DUEF development, Stage III: implementation, and Stage IV: management and utilization. We have identified four key pillars required for the establishment of a DUEF framework: (1) Environmental fingerprints, (2) Socioeconomic fingerprints, (3) Statistics and modelling and (4) Information systems. This manuscript critically evaluates the current knowledge base within each pillar and provides recommendations for further developments with an aim of laying grounds for successful development of global DUEF platforms.

A framework for information technology-based management against COVID-19 in Iran

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic has become a global concern. Iran is one of the countries affected most by the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak. As a result, the use of information technology (IT) has a variety of applications for pandemic management. The purpose of this study was to develop a conceptual framework for responding to the COVID-19 pandemic via IT management, based on extensive literature review and expert knowledge.

METHODS

The conceptual framework is developed in three stages: (1) a literature review to gather practical experience with IT applications for managing the COVID-19 pandemic, (2) a study of Iranian documents and papers that present Iran's practical experience with COVID-19, and (3) developing a conceptual framework based on the previous steps and validating it through a Delphi approach in two rounds, and by 13 experts.

RESULTS

The proposed conceptual framework demonstrates that during pandemics, 22 different types of technologies were used for various purposes, including virtual education, early warning, rapid screening and diagnosis of infected individuals, and data management. These objectives were classified into six categories, with the following applications highlighted: (1) Prevention (M-health, Internet search queries, telehealth, robotics, Internet of things (IoT), Artificial Intelligence (AI), big data, Virtual Reality (VR), social media); (2) Diagnosis (M-health, drones, telehealth, IoT, Robotics, AI, Decision Support System (DSS), Electronic Health Record (EHR)); (3) Treatment (Telehealth, M-health, AI, Robotic, VR, IoT); (4) Follow-up (Telehealth, M-health, VR), (5) Management & planning (Geographic information system, M-health, IoT, blockchain), and (6) Protection (IoT, AI, Robotic and automatic vehicles, Augmented Reality (AR)). In Iran, the use of IT for prevention has been emphasized through M-health, internet search queries, social media, video conferencing, management and planning objectives using databases, health information systems, dashboards, surveillance systems, and vaccine coverage.

CONCLUSIONS

IT capabilities were critical during the COVID-19 outbreak. Practical experience demonstrates that various aspects of information technologies were overlooked. To combat this pandemic, the government and decision-makers of this country should consider strategic planning that incorporates successful experiences against COVID-19 and the most advanced IT capabilities.

Geographical network model for COVID-19 spread among dynamic epidemic regions

Pandemic due to SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) has affected to world in several aspects: high number of confirmed cases, high number of deaths, low economic growth, among others. Understanding of spatio-temporal dynamics of the virus is helpful and necessary for decision making, for instance to decide where, whether and how, non-pharmaceutical intervention policies are to be applied. This point has not been properly addressed in literature since typical strategies do not consider marked differences on the epidemic spread across country or large territory. Those strategies assume similarities and apply similar interventions instead. This work is focused on posing a methodology where spatio-temporal epidemic dynamics is captured by means of dividing a territory in time-varying epidemic regions, according to geographical closeness and infection level. In addition, a novel Lagrangian-SEIR-based model is posed for describing the dynamic within and between those regions. The capabilities of this methodology for identifying local outbreaks and reproducing the epidemic curve are discussed for the case of COVID-19 epidemic in Jalisco state (Mexico). The contagions from July 31, 2020 to March 31, 2021 are analyzed, with monthly adjustments, and the estimates obtained at the level of the epidemic regions present satisfactory results since Relative Root Mean Squared Error RRMSE is below 15% in most of regions, and at the level of the whole state outstanding with RRMSE below 5%.

Spatial Patterns of the Spread of COVID-19 in Singapore and the Influencing Factors

Exploring the spatial patterns of COVID-19 transmission and its key determinants could provide a deeper understanding of the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic. The goal of this study is to investigate the spatial patterns of COVID-19 transmission in different periods in Singapore, as well as their relationship with demographic and built-environment factors. Based on reported cases from 23 January to 30 September 2020, we divided the research time into six phases and used spatial autocorrelation analysis, the ordinary least squares (OLS) model, the multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) model, and dominance analysis to explore the spatial patterns and influencing factors in each phase. The results showed that the spatial patterns of COVID-19 cases differed across time, and imported cases presented a random pattern, whereas local cases presented a clustered pattern. Among the selected variables, the supermarket density, elderly population density, hotel density, business land proportion, and park density may be particular fitting indicators explaining the different phases of pandemic development in Singapore. Furthermore, the associations between determinants and COVID-19 transmission changed dynamically over time. This study provides policymakers with valuable information for developing targeted interventions for certain areas and periods.