Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram for recurrence-free survival after complete surgical resection of localised primary gastrointestinal stromal tumour: a retrospective analysis

The GIST of Advances in Treatment of Advanced Gastrointestinal Stromal Tumor

Gastrointestinal stromal tumor (GIST) is the most common malignant neoplasm of mesenchymal origin and a compelling clinical and biologic model for the rational development of molecularly targeted agents. This is because the majority of GISTs are driven by gain-of-function mutations in KIT or PDGFRA receptor tyrosine kinases. Specific GIST mutations circumscribe well-defined molecular subgroups that must be determined during the diagnostic work-up to guide clinical management, including therapeutic decisions. Surgery is the cornerstone treatment in localized disease and can also be clinically relevant in the metastatic setting. The correct combination and sequence of targeted agents and surgical procedures improves outcomes for patients with GIST and should be discussed individually within multidisciplinary expert teams. All currently approved agents for the treatment of GIST are based on orally available tyrosine kinase inhibitors targeting KIT and PDGFRA oncogenic activation. Although first-line imatinib achieves remarkable prolonged disease control, the benefit of subsequent lines of treatment is more modest. Novel therapeutic strategies focus on overcoming the heterogeneity of KIT or PDGFRA secondary mutations and providing more potent inhibition of specific challenging mutations. This article reviews the current understanding and treatment of GIST, with an emphasis on recent advances.

Tumor Microenvironment Evaluation for Gastrointestinal Cancer in the Era of Immunotherapy and Machine Learning

A dynamic and mutualistic interplay between tumor cells and the surrounding tumor microenvironment (TME) triggered the initiation, progression, metastasis, and therapy response of solid tumors. Recent clinical breakthroughs in immunotherapy for gastrointestinal cancer conferred considerable attention to the estimation of TME, and the maturity of next-generation sequencing (NGS)-based technology contributed to the availability of increasing datasets and computational toolbox for deciphering TME compartments. In the current review, we demonstrated the components of TME, multiple methodologies involved in TME detection, and prognostic and predictive TME signatures derived from corresponding methods for gastrointestinal cancer. The TME evaluation comprises traditional, radiomics, and NGS-based high-throughput methodologies, and the computational algorithms are comprehensively discussed. Moreover, we systemically elucidated the existing TME-relevant signatures in the prognostic, chemotherapeutic, and immunotherapeutic settings. Collectively, we highlighted the clinical and technological advances in TME estimation for clinical translation and anticipated that TME-associated biomarkers may be promising in optimizing the future precision treatment for gastrointestinal cancer.

Ki67 for evaluating the prognosis of gastrointestinal stromal tumors: A systematic review and meta‑analysis

Overexpression of Ki67 is observed in tumor cells, and it has been suggested to be a marker for cancer prognosis. However, the relationship between Ki67 expression and the risk of recurrence of gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GISTs) remains poorly defined. In the present study, a meta-analysis was used to examine the associations between Ki67 levels and GIST recurrence. Studies reporting GIST and Ki67 were found by searching Cochrane Library, PubMed and Embase until October 14, 2021. The Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS) was used to verify the quality of the evidence. Totally, 1682 patient cases were included. The odds ratio (OR) estimates and 95% confidence interval (CI) for each publication were determined by a fixed-effects (Mantel-Haenszel) model. A total of 20 studies that fulfilled the inclusion criteria were finally included in the analysis. The average score of quality evaluation was 6.4 points according to NOS. It was found that Ki67 levels were significantly higher in the NIH L group compared with the NIH VL group (OR: 0.51; 95% CI: 0.26-0.99; P=0.04; P heterogeneity=0.44). There was also greater Ki67 overexpression in the NIH I group compared with the NIH L group (OR: 0.45, 95% CI: 0.31-0.65; P<0.0001; P heterogeneity=0.32), while Ki67 levels were greater in the NIH H group than in the NIH I group (OR: 0.20; 95% CI: 0.15-0.28; P<0.00001; P heterogeneity=0.56). In conclusion, Ki67 overexpression may be a useful marker of the risk of recurrent GIST transformation.

Gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GISTs) arising in uncommon locations: clinicopathologic features and risk assessment of esophageal, colonic, and appendiceal GISTs

Risk stratification of gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GISTs) is based on experience with tumors of the stomach, small bowel, and rectum, which are far more common than GISTs of other sites. In this study from 47 institutions, we analyzed GISTs of the esophagus (n = 102), colon (n = 136), and appendix (n = 27) for their size, mitotic rate, morphology, and outcome to determine which criteria predict their behavior. Esophageal GISTs were small (median: 2.5 cm) with spindle cell morphology and a low mitotic rate (mean: 3.6/5 mm²). Twelve (12%) tumors progressed, including 11 with a mitotic rate >5/5 mm² and one large (6.8 cm) GIST with a mitotic rate of 2/5 mm². Colonic GISTs were smaller (median: 1.4 cm) and presented with abdominal pain or bleeding in 29% of cases. Most (92%) were composed of spindle cells with a mean mitotic rate of 4.6/5 mm². Sixteen (12%) tumors progressed: 14 had mitotic rates >5/5 mm², and two were >5.0 cm with a mitotic rate <5/5 mm². All but one appendiceal GIST measured <2.0 cm. These tumors were composed of spindle cells with low mitotic rates (<5/5 mm²), and none progressed. Our results suggest that progression risk among esophageal and colonic GISTs is associated with increased mitotic activity (>5/5 mm²) and size >5.0 cm. These findings support the use of size and mitotic rate for prognostication of GISTs in these locations, similar to tumors of the stomach, small bowel, and rectum.

The Diagnosis of Small Gastrointestinal Subepithelial Lesions by Endoscopic Ultrasound-Guided Fine Needle Aspiration and Biopsy

Endoscopic ultrasonography (EUS) has been widely accepted in the diagnosis of all types of tumors, especially pancreatic tumors, lymph nodes, and subepithelial lesions (SELs). One reason is that the examination can provide a detailed observation, with tissue samples being immediately obtained by endoscopic ultrasound-guided fine needle aspiration (EUS-FNA). Many SELs are detected incidentally during endoscopic examinations without symptoms. Most SELs are mesenchymal tumors originating from the fourth layer, such as gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GISTs), leiomyomas, and schwannomas. GISTs are potentially malignant. Surgical treatment is recommended for localized GISTs of ≥20 mm. However, the indications for the diagnosis and follow-up of GISTs of <20 mm in size are controversial. There are several reports on the rapid progression or metastasis of small GISTs. Therefore, it is important to determine whether a SEL is a GIST or not. The main diagnostic method is EUS-FNA. Recently, endoscopic ultrasound-guided fine needle biopsy (EUS-FNB) using a new biopsy needle has been reported to obtain larger tissue samples. Additionally, various biopsy methods have been reported to have a high diagnostic rate for small GISTs. In local gastric SELs, regardless of the tumor size, EUS can be performed first; then, EUS-FNA/B or various biopsy methods can be used to obtain tissue samples for decision-making in relation to therapy and the follow-up period.

A prognostic risk model based on DNA methylation levels of genes and lncRNAs in lung squamous cell carcinoma

Background

Recurrence is a risk factor for the prognosis of lung squamous carcinoma (LUSC). DNA methylation levels of RNAs are also associated with LUSC prognosis. This study aimed to construct a prognostic model with high performance in predicting LUSC prognosis using the methylation levels of lncRNAs and genes.

Methods

The differentially expressed RNAs (DERs) and differentially methylated RNAs (DMRs) between the recurrent and non-recurrent LUSC tissues in The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA; training dataset) were identified. Weighted correlation network analysis was performed to identify co-methylation networks. Differentially methylated genes and lncRNAs with opposite expression-methylation levels were used for the screening of prognosis-associated RNAs. The prognostic model was constructed and its performance was validated in the GSE39279 dataset.

Results

A total of 664 DERs and 981 DMRs (including 972 genes) in recurrent LUSC tissues were identified. Three co-methylation modules, including 226 differentially methylated genes, were significantly associated with LUSC. Among prognosis-associated RNAs, 18 DERs/DMRs with opposite methylation-expression levels were included in the methylation prognostic risk model. LUSC patients with high risk scores had a poor prognosis compared with patients who had low risk scores (TCGA: HR = 3.856, 95% CI [2.297-6.471]; GSE39279: HR = 3.040, 95% CI [1.435-6.437]). This model had a high accuracy in predicting the prognosis (AUC = 0.903 and 0.800, respectively), equivalent to the nomogram model inclusive of clinical variables.

Conclusions

Referring to the methylation levels of the 16-RNAs might help to predict the survival outcomes in LUSC.

CSPG4 Expression in GIST Is Associated with Better Prognosis and Strong Cytotoxic Immune Response

Simple Summary

Gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GIST) are the most frequent sarcomas of the gastrointestinal tract. Identification of novel prognostic and/or therapeutic targets is a major issue to overcome tyrosine kinase inhibitors resistances. CSPG4, a cell surface proteoglycan, emerged as a potential therapeutic target for immune therapy in different cancers, including sarcomas. CSPG4 expression has never been studied in GIST. In this work we analyzed CSPG4 mRNA expression in a large series of clinical GIST samples given the scarcity of disease (n = 309 patients). We find that high CSPG4 expression is independently associated with disease-free survival, and with an immune landscape favorable to induce strong cytotoxic immune response after NK cell stimulation. Our results suggest the potential value of CSPG4-specific chimeric antigen receptor-redirected cytokine-induced killer lymphocytes treatment in GIST, notably “CSPG4-high” tumors, and calls for preclinical validation, drug testing in vivo, then in clinical trials.

Abstract

The treatment of gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GIST) must be improved through the development of more reliable prognostic factors and of therapies able to overcome imatinib resistance. The immune system represents an attractive tool. CSPG4, a cell surface proteoglycan, emerged as a potential therapeutic target for immune therapy in different cancers, including cell therapy based on CSPG4-specific chimeric antigen receptor (CAR)-redirected cytokine-induced killer lymphocytes (CSPG4-CAR.CIKs) in sarcomas. CSPG4 expression has never been studied in GIST. We analyzed CSPG4 mRNA expression data of 309 clinical GIST samples profiled using DNA microarrays and searched for correlations with clinicopathological and immune features. CSPG4 expression, higher in tumors than normal digestive tissues, was heterogeneous across tumors. High expression was associated with AFIP low-risk, gastric site, and localized stage, and independently with longer postoperative disease-free survival (DFS) in localized stage. The correlations between CSPG4 expression and immune signatures highlighted a higher anti-tumor immune response in “CSPG4-high” tumors, relying on both the adaptive and innate immune system, in which the boost of NK cells by CSPG4-CAR.CIKs might be instrumental, eventually combined with immune checkpoint inhibitors. In conclusion, high CSPG4 expression in GIST is associated with better DFS and offers an immune environment favorable to a vulnerability to CAR.CIKs.

Duodenal gastrointestinal stromal tumour imitating as pancreatic head tumour

Duodenal gastrointestinal stromal tumours (D-GISTs) are a rare disease. It may arise commonly from the second or third part of the duodenum and can be erroneously diagnosed as a pancreatic head tumour due to proximity and morphology on imaging studies. We present a case of a 60-year-old woman who presented with abdominal pain and was diagnosed as a case of pancreatic neuroendocrine tumour on radiologic imaging and granulomatous lesion on aspiration cytology. A ~5×3 cm mass was noted in the pancreatic head on laparotomy, and pancreatoduodenectomy was performed. Histopathology reported an exophytic GIST arising from the second part of the duodenum. Hence, D-GIST can invade the pancreas and mimic pancreatic head tumours; therefore, these tumours should be kept in the differential diagnosis of an atypical pancreatic head mass.

Deep-learning model for predicting the survival of rectal adenocarcinoma patients based on a surveillance, epidemiology, and end results analysis

Background

We collected information on patients with rectal adenocarcinoma in the United States from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and EndResults (SEER) database. We used this information to establish a model that combined deep learning with a multilayer neural network (the DeepSurv model) for predicting the survival rate of patients with rectal adenocarcinoma.

Methods

We collected patients with rectal adenocarcinoma in the United States and older than 20 yearswho had been added to the SEER database from 2004 to 2015. We divided these patients into training and test cohortsat a ratio of 7:3. The training cohort was used to develop a seven-layer neural network based on the analysis method established by Katzman and colleagues to construct a DeepSurv prediction model. We then used the C-index and calibration plots to evaluate the prediction performance of the DeepSurv model.

Results

The 49,275 patients with rectal adenocarcinoma included in the study were randomly divided into the training cohort (70%, n = 34,492) and the test cohort (30%, n = 14,783). There were no statistically significant differences in clinical characteristics between the two cohorts (p > 0.05). We applied Cox proportional-hazards regression to the data in the training cohort, which showed that age, sex, marital status, tumor grade, surgery status, and chemotherapy status were significant factors influencing survival (p < 0.05). Using the training cohort to construct the DeepSurv model resulted in a C-index of the model of 0.824, while using the test cohort to verify the DeepSurv model yielded a C-index of 0.821. Thesevalues show that the prediction effect of the DeepSurv model for the test-cohort patients was highly consistent with the prediction resultsfor the training-cohort patients.

Conclusion

The DeepSurv prediction model of the seven-layer neural network that we have established can accurately predict the survival rateand time of rectal adenocarcinoma patients.

Sarcopenia as a novel prognostic factor in the patients of primary localized gastrointestinal stromal tumor

Background

Sarcopenia predicts poor prognosis of a variety of gastrointestinal malignancies. However, there is a lack of study on the association between skeletal muscle index (SMI) and the prognosis of gastrointestinal stromal tumor (GIST). The aim of this study is to develop a novel nomogram based on sarcopenia for GIST patients to predict overall survival (OS).

Methods

SMI was measured by computed tomography scan of 107 patients who underwent resection for primary localized gastrointestinal stromal tumor (GIST). Sarcopenia was defined by cutoff values for SMI as 40.1 cm²/m² and 39.8 cm²/m² using optimum stratification for males and females respectively. Factors were included in the nomogram were specified by univariate and multiple Cox proportional hazard analysis. Concordance index (C-index) and calibration curves were conducted to measure the discrimination and accuracy of the nomogram. The utility of the nomogram was assessed by the decision curve analysis (DCA).

Results

Twenty-eight (26.2%) of 107 patients were sarcopenic. Sarcopenia was correlated significantly with body mass index, albumin, female sex, resection style, mitotic index, rupture status, survival. Sarcopenia was significantly related to decreased overall survival (p = 0.003).The nomogram including sarcopenia status, resection style and mitotic index had an excellent discrimination with C-index 0.794. The calibration curves represented a good accordance between the actual observation and nomogram prediction for overall survival. Decision curve analysis illustrated that the nomogram was helpful in clinic.

Conclusions

We developed a nomogram based on sarcopenia to predict overall survival after resection of GISTs which is an effective and favorable prognostication tool.

Postoperative Adjuvant Imatinib Therapy-Associated Nomogram to Predict Overall Survival of Gastrointestinal Stromal Tumor

BACKGROUND

Adjuvant imatinib therapy has been shown to improve overall survival (OS) of gastrointestinal stromal tumor (GIST) significantly. Few nomograms combining the use of adjuvant imatinib and clinicopathological characteristics estimate the outcome of patients. We aimed to establish a more comprehensive nomogram for predicting OS in patients with GIST.

METHODS

In total, 1310 GIST patients undergoing curative resection at four high-volume medical centers between 2001 and 2015 were enrolled. Independent prognostic factors were identified by multivariate Cox analysis. Eligible patients were randomly assigned in a ratio of 7:3 into a training set (916 cases) and a validation set (394 cases). A nomogram was established by R software and its predictive power compared with that of the modified National Institutes of Health (NIH) classification using time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and calibration plot.

RESULTS

Age, tumor site, tumor size, mitotic index, postoperative imatinib and diagnostic delay were identified as independent prognostic parameters and used to construct a nomogram. Of note, diagnostic delay was for the first time included in a prognostic model for GIST. The calibrated nomogram resulted in predicted survival rates consistent with observed ones. And the decision curve analysis suggested that the nomogram prognostic model was clinically useful. Furthermore, time-dependent ROC curves showed the nomogram exhibited greater discrimination power than the modified NIH classification in 3- and 5-year survival predictions for both training and validation sets (all P < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Postoperative adjuvant imatinib therapy improved the survival of GIST patients. We developed and validated a more comprehensive prognostic nomogram for GIST patients, and it could have important clinical utility in improving individualized predictions of survival risks and treatment decision-making.

Nomogram based on clinical characteristics and serological inflammation markers to predict overall survival of oral tongue squamous cell carcinoma patient after surgery

BACKGROUND

Oral tongue squamous cell carcinoma (OTSCC) is a prevalent malignant disease that is characterized by high rates of metastasis and postoperative recurrence. The aim of this study was to establish a nomogram to predict the outcome of OTSCC patients after surgery.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed 169 OTSCC patients who underwent treatments in the Cancer Hospital of Shantou University Medical College from 2008 to 2019. The Cox regression analysis was performed to determine the independent prognostic factors associated with patient's overall survival (OS). A nomogram based on these prognostic factors was established and internally validated using a bootstrap resampling method.

RESULTS

Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed the independent prognostic factors for OS were TNM stage, age, lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio and immunoglobulin G, all of which were identified to create the nomogram. The Akaike Information Criterion and Bayesian Information Criterion of the nomogram were lower than those of TNM stage (292.222 vs. 305.480; 298.444 vs. 307.036, respectively), indicating a better goodness-of-fit of the nomogram for predicting OS. The bootstrap-corrected of concordance index (C-index) of nomogram was 0.784 (95% CI 0.708-0.860), which was higher than that of TNM stage (0.685, 95% CI 0.603-0.767, P = 0.017). The results of time-dependent C-index for OS also showed that the nomogram had a better discriminative ability than that of TNM stage. The calibration curves of the nomogram showed good consistency between the probabilities and observed values. The decision curve analysis also revealed the potential clinical usefulness of the nomogram. Based on the cutoff value obtained from the nomogram, the proposed high-risk group had poorer OS than low-risk group (P < 0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

The nomogram based on clinical characteristics and serological inflammation markers might be useful for outcome prediction of OTSCC patient.

Clinical Features of Extragastrointestinal Stromal Tumor Compared with Gastrointestinal Stromal Tumor: A Retrospective, Multicenter, Real-World Study

Objective

This study aimed to compare the tumor characteristics and long-term outcomes between EGIST and GIST. The confounding function was applied to improve the result credibility in the case of small sample size. Design, Setting, and Participants. This cohort study enrolled 55 patients with EGIST who underwent surgery and were selected from four high-volume hospitals in China and 221 GIST patients who were collected from one of the four hospitals between January 2006 and September 2017. We used propensity score matching (PSM) and subgroup analysis to compare EGIST with GIST in terms of prognosis. The confounding function was used for sensitivity analysis to reduce unmeasured confounding.

Results

We matched 43 patients in each of the GIST and EGIST groups by PSM. We compared EGIST data with GIST data to explore the prognostic factors between them. In the multivariate Cox regression model, tumor location of EGIST was negatively correlated with overall survival (after PSM: HR, 4.32; 95% CI, 1.22–15.26) or disease-free survival (after PSM: HR, 9.79; 95% CI, 2.22–43.31), which was also intuitively shown in the Kaplan–Meier survival curves (all P values < 0.05). In the subgroup analysis, EGIST with high risk factors had a worse prognosis than GIST. In unmeasured confounding analysis, the overall curve tends to show all combinations of c(0) of c(1) up to 2.0, none of which would bring the corrected relative risk to 1 for OS and DFS. Conclusions and Relevance. EGIST was associated with worse prognosis compared with GIST patients, particularly in EGIST patients with high risk factors, while there was a similar prognosis without those high risk factors.

National Utilization of Imatinib in the Management of Resected Gastrointestinal Stromal Tumors

BACKGROUND

Imatinib decreases recurrence risk and improves overall survival (OS) in localized gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GISTs); however, the extent to which patients receive appropriate treatment in the US has not been well characterized.

METHODS

Patients with non-metastatic, resectable GIST were included in this study (National Cancer Database, 2010-2015). Those with a low-risk of recurrence were classified as receiving overtreatment or guideline-concordant treatment, while those with a high-risk of recurrence were classified as receiving undertreatment or guideline-concordant treatment. Multivariable logistic regression was used to determine factors associated with non-concordant treatment. The association between non-concordant treatment and OS was evaluated using multivariable Cox regression and propensity score matching.

RESULTS

Among 3088 patients with high-risk GIST, 41% were undertreated, and among 3908 patients with low-risk GIST, 18.8% were overtreated. For patients with high-risk GIST, age > 60 years, African American race, and treatment at a community or comprehensive cancer program were associated with undertreatment. Among low-risk patients, small bowel primary, tumor size > 2 cm, and tumors with > 1 mitotic figure per 50 high-power fields were more likely to be overtreated. After propensity score matching, guideline-concordant therapy was associated with an 8.8% improvement in 5-year OS (81.9% vs. 73.1%, p = 0.002) for those with high-risk GIST and decreased risk of death (hazard ratio 0.63, 95% confidence interval 0.47-0.84). There was no statistically significant difference in survival for patients with low-risk GIST with the addition of imatinib overtreatment (overtreatment 93.9% vs. 89.6%, p = 0.053).

CONCLUSIONS

Nearly 30% of GIST patients do not receive guideline-concordant treatment and future work is needed to understand the factors driving non-concordant treatment.

Dynamic survival analysis of gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GISTs): a 10-year follow-up based on conditional survival

Background

The prognosis of patients with gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GISTs) is generally evaluated at the time of diagnosis but does not reflect the survival dynamics of patients in the future. Therefore, the purpose of this article was to evaluate the conditional survival (CS) of Chinese patients with GISTs after radical resection.

Methods

This retrospective study included 451 patients who underwent radical surgery for GISTs. A Cox proportional hazard model was used to evaluate the prognostic factors of disease-free survival (DFS). The 3-year conditional DFS (CDFS₃) of patients who survived for x years was expressed as CDFS₃₌DFS_(x + 3)/DFS_(x).

Results

The traditional 3-year DFS rate decreased gradually from 94.0% at 3 years to 77.3% at 7 years, while the CDFS₃ rate increased from 94.0 to 95.2% over the survival time of the patients. In addition, classic clinicopathological prognostic factors had different effects on CDFS_3, with changes observed in survival time, but these effects were only slight or moderate (|d|<0.5). Although multivariate analysis showed that age, sex, mitotic index and tumor rupture were independent risk factors for DFS at baseline, all adverse prognostic factors, except for the mitotic index, lost their predictive significance at 5 years after operation. When the Modified NIH criteria were included, the risk staging was found to be an independent risk factor for recurrence or death. Time-dependent Cox regression analysis showed that the modified NIH criteria independently affected the recurrence or death of GIST patients within 2 years after operation.

Conclusion

CS provides detailed dynamic survival information about Chinese patients with primary resected GISTs. The mitotic index is of great clinical significance for the monitoring and follow-up of patient populations with a high risk of tumor recurrence or death until 5 years after surgery.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12885-021-08828-y.

A proposed risk assessment score for gastrointestinal stromal tumors based on evaluation of 19,030 cases from the National Cancer Database

BACKGROUND

Standard risk assessment algorithms for gastrointestinal stromal tumor (GIST) are based on anatomic and histopathological variables with arbitrarily defined subcategories. Our goal was to improve risk assessment for GIST through retrospective analysis of patient data.

METHODS

The National Cancer Database (NCDB) was queried for patients with GIST; the final cohort consisted of 19,030 cases. Main outcomes were metastasis at presentation and overall survival. A test dataset was used to reevaluate risk stratification parameters in multivariate regression models. A novel risk assessment system was applied to the validation dataset and compared to other currently used risk assessment schemes.

RESULTS

Analysis of observed prevalence of metastases at presentation suggested 7 cm and mitotic rates > 10 per 5 mm² as optimal threshold values. A proposed risk stratification score showed statistical superiority compared to the National Comprehensive Cancer Network, American Joint Committee on Cancer, and modified National Institute of Health classifications in predicting probability of presentation with metastasis at diagnosis and 4-year overall survival after accounting for important covariables including patient age and comorbidities, year of diagnosis, and surgical/systemic therapeutic regimen.

CONCLUSIONS

Reexamination of prognostic factors for GIST demonstrated that current threshold values for tumor size and mitotic rate are suboptimal. A risk stratification score based on revised categorization of these factors outperformed currently used risk assessment algorithms.

Onodera's Prognostic Nutritional Index is a novel and useful prognostic marker for gastrointestinal stromal tumors

BACKGROUND

Immunoinflammatory markers such as the peripheral blood neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and the platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) have gained considerable attention as prognostic markers in gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GISTs).

AIM

To assess the prognostic value of Onodera’s Prognostic Nutritional Index (OPNI) for GISTs.

METHODS

All patients who had undergone surgical resection for a primary, localized GIST from 2009 to 2016 at our cancer center were initially and retrospectively identified. Recurrence-free survival (RFS) was calculated by the Kaplan-Meier method and compared by the log-rank test. We used multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression models to identify associations with outcome variables.

RESULTS

A total of 235 GISTs were identified and included for analysis under our inclusion criteria. Univariate and multivariate analyses both identified the OPNI as an independent prognostic marker, and the OPNI was associated with the primary site, tumor size, mitotic index, tumor rupture, necrosis, and modified NIH risk classification. Low OPNI (< 51.30; hazard ratio = 5.852; 95% confidence interval: 1.072–31.964; P = 0.0414) was associated with worse RFS. The 2- and 5-year RFS rates of the patients with a low OPNI were 92.83% and 76.22%, respectively, whereas 100% and 98.41% were achieved by the patients with a high OPNI.

CONCLUSION

The preoperative OPNI is a novel and useful prognostic marker for GISTs.

Gene Expression Subtyping Reveals Immune alterations:TCGA Database for Prognosis in Ovarian Serous Cystadenocarcinoma

Serous ovarian cancer is the most common and primary death type in ovarian cancer. In recent studies, tumor microenvironment and tumor immune infiltration significantly affect the prognosis of ovarian cancer. This study analyzed the four gene expression types of ovarian cancer in TCGA database to extract differentially expressed genes and verify the prognostic significance. Meanwhile, functional enrichment and protein interaction network analysis exposed that these genes were related to immune response and immune infiltration. Subsequently, we proved these prognostic genes in an independent data set from the GEO database. Finally, multivariate cox regression analysis revealed the prognostic significance of TAP1 and CXCL13. The genetic alteration and interaction network of these two genes were shown. Then, we established a nomogram model related to the two genes and clinical risk factors. This model performed well in Calibration plot and Decision Curve Analysis. In conclusion, we have obtained a list of genes related to the immune microenvironment with a better prognosis for serous ovarian cancer, and based on this, we have tried to establish a clinical prognosis model.

Clinicopathological Characteristics and Prognosis of Signet Ring Gastric Cancer: A Population-Based Study

Background

To better define the clinicopathologic characteristics of signet ring cell (SRC) gastric cancer and build a prognostic model for it.

Methods

SRC patient information from 2010 to 2015 were identified using Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank test were used to estimate Overall survival (OS) and to determine associations with histologic subtypes. In COX proportional hazards regression model–based univariate and multivariate analyses, significant variables for construction of a nomogram were screened out. The nomogram was validated by means of the concordance index (CI), calibration plots, and receiver operating characteristics (ROCs) curves.

Results

A total of 11,363 gastric cancer patients were enrolled. On dividing the patients into SRC, well-to-moderately differentiated (WMD) adenocarcinoma, and poorly differentiated (PD) adenocarcinoma, differences among these subgroups emerged. SRC patients were more likely to occur in female and young patients than other histologic subtypes. Larger tumors, stage T4, and node stage N3 were more likely to be found in the SRC group. The survival for SRC patients was better than non-SRC patients in stage I. Univariate and multivariate analyses identified age, tumor site, larger tumor size, advanced T classification, advanced N classification, advanced TNM stage, and surgery of primary site as independent prognostic indicators. Then an OS nomogram was formulated.

Conclusions

SRC had distinct clinicopathological characteristics. The nomogram provided an accurate tool to evaluate the prognosis of SRC.

Prognostic value of Onodera's nutritional index for intermediate- and high-risk gastrointestinal stromal tumors treated with or without tyrosine kinase inhibitors

Background

Immunoinflammatory and nutritional markers, such as the peripheral blood neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) and Onodera’s prognostic nutritional index (OPNI), have gained considerable attention and have been preliminarily revealed as prognostic markers of gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GISTs).

Methods

In this study, we first investigated the prognostic value of OPNI in GISTs treated with or without TKIs based on the propensity score matching (PSM) method. All of the patients had received surgical resection for primary GIST, and data from 2010 to 2018 were initially and retrospectively identified from our gastrointestinal center. Recurrence-free survival (RFS) was calculated by the Kaplan–Meier method and compared by the log-rank test.

Results

The patients were divided into groups treated and not treated with TKIs, and we used the propensity score matching method to homogenize their baseline data. Multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression models were applied to identify associations with outcome variables. A total of 563 GISTs were initially chosen, and 280 of them were included for analysis under the inclusion criteria. After PSM, there were 200 patients included. Multivariate analyses identified OPNI as an independent prognostic marker that was associated with primary site, tumor size, mitotic index, tumor rupture, necrosis, and modified NIH risk classification. Low OPNI (< 42.6; HR 0.409; P < 0.001) was associated with worse RFS.

Conclusions

Preoperative OPNI is a novel and useful prognostic marker for GISTs both treated and not treated with TKIs. Higher NLR and PLR have negative effects on RFS.

Integrated analysis of long non-coding RNAs and mRNAs associated with malignant transformation of gastrointestinal stromal tumors

Malignant transformation of gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GISTs) is correlated with poor prognosis; however, the underlying biological mechanism is not well understood. In the present study, low-risk (LR) GISTs, GISTs categorized as high-risk based on tumor size (HBS), and on mitotic rate (HBM) were collected for RNA sequencing. Candidate hub lncRNAs were selected by Oncomine analysis. Expression of a selected hub lncRNA, DNM3OS, and its correlation with patients’ prognosis were analyzed using FISH staining, followed with the determination of function and underlying mechanism. Our results revealed a series of key pathways and hub lncRNAs involved in the malignant transformation of GISTs. Oncomine analysis revealed a tight association between clinical signatures and DNM3OS and suggested that DNM3OS is a hub lncRNA that is involved in the Hippo signaling pathway. In addition, DNM3OS was upregulated in HBS, HBM, and HBS/M GIST and correlated with worse prognosis in patients with GISTs. In addition, DNM3OS promoted GIST cell proliferation and mitosis by regulating the expression of GLUT4 and CD36. Collectively, these results improve our understanding of the malignant transformation of GISTs and unveil a series of hub lncRNAs in GISTs.

Prognostic Factors After Neoadjuvant Imatinib for Newly Diagnosed Primary Gastrointestinal Stromal Tumor

INTRODUCTION

Neoadjuvant imatinib (Neo-IM) therapy may facilitate R0 resection in primary gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GISTs) that are large or in difficult anatomic locations. While response to preoperative tyrosine kinase inhibitors is associated with better outcome in metastatic GIST, little is known about prognostic factors after Neo-IM in primary GIST.

STUDY DESIGN

Patients with primary GIST with or without synchronous metastases who underwent Neo-IM were retrospectively analyzed from a prospective maintained institutional database for Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (RECIST), tumor viability, and mitotic rate. Overall survival (OS) was estimated by Kaplan-Meier and compared by log-rank test. Cox proportionate hazard models were used for univariate and multivariate analysis.

RESULTS

One hundred and fifty patients were treated for a median of 7.1 months (range 0.2-160). By RECIST, partial response, stable disease, and progressive disease were seen in 40%, 51%, and 9%, respectively. By pathologic analysis, ≤ 50% of the tumor was viable in 72%, and the mitotic rate was ≤ 5/50HPF in 74%. On multivariate analysis, RECIST response and tumor viability were not associated with OS, while post-treatment high mitotic rate (hazard ratio (HR) for death 5.3, CI 2.3-12.4), R2 margins (HR 6.0, CI 2.3-15.5), and adjuvant imatinib (HR 0.4, CI 0.2-0.9) were (p < 0.05). Five-year OS was 81 vs. 38% for low vs. high mitotic rate; 81, 59, and 39% for R0, R1, and R2 margins; and 75 vs 61% for adjuvant vs. no adjuvant imatinib therapy (p < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

In primary GIST undergoing Neo-IM therapy, progression was uncommon, but substantial down-sizing occurred in the minority. High tumor mitotic rate and incomplete resection following Neo-IM were associated with poor outcome, while adjuvant imatinib was associated with prolonged survival.

Recent Progress and Challenges in the Diagnosis and Treatment of Gastrointestinal Stromal Tumors

Simple Summary

Gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GIST) are potentially malignant tumors and require evidence-based surgical and/or medical treatment. Laparoscopy has similar safety and prognostic outcomes to those of laparotomy and is currently a standard procedure for localized GISTs. However, surgery for gastric GISTs less than 2 cm may be re-evaluated due to the indolent nature of the GIST and other competing risks among GIST patients. A work-up with endoscopy and endoscopic ultrasonography as well as endoscopic or percutaneous biopsy is important for the preoperative diagnosis of GISTs. Medical treatment with tyrosine kinase inhibitors is the mainstay for recurrent/metastatic GISTs. The activity of an individual drug is well correlated with gene alterations, and, in the era of precision medicine, cancer genome profiling should be considered before medical treatment.

Abstract

Gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GISTs) are the most frequent malignant mesenchymal tumors in the gastrointestinal tract. The clinical incidence of GISTs is estimated 10/million/year; however, the true incidence is complicated by frequent findings of tiny GISTs, of which the natural history is unknown. The initial work-up with endoscopy and endoscopic ultrasonography plays important roles in the differential diagnosis of GISTs. Surgery is the only modality for the permanent cure of localized GISTs. In terms of safety and prognostic outcomes, laparoscopy is similar to laparotomy for GIST treatment, including tumors larger than 5 cm. GIST progression is driven by mutations in KIT or PDGFRA or by other rare gene alterations, all of which are mutually exclusive. Tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) are the standard therapy for metastatic/recurrent GISTs. Molecular alterations are the most reliable biomarkers for TKIs and for other drugs, such as NTRK inhibitors. The pathological and genetic diagnosis prior to treatment has been challenging; however, a newly developed endoscopic device may be useful for diagnosis. In the era of precision medicine, cancer genome profiling by targeted gene panel analysis may enable potential targeted therapy even for GISTs without KIT or PDGFRA mutations.

Clinicopathological Features and Outcomes of Gastrointestinal Stromal Tumours in Oman: A multi-centre study

Objectives

This study aimed to report the clinicopathological features, management and long-term outcomes of patients with gastrointestinal stromal tumours (GISTs) in Oman.

Methods

This retrospective study was conducted on patients treated for GIST between January 2003 and December 2017 at three tertiary referral centres in Muscat, Oman. All patients with confirmed histopathological diagnoses of GIST and followed-up at the centres during this period were included. Relevant information was retrieved from hospital records until April 2019.

Results

A total of 44 patients were included in the study. The median age was 55.5 years and 56.8% were female. The most common primary site of disease was the stomach (63.6%) followed by the jejunum/ileum (18.2%). Two patients (4.5%) had c-Kit-negative, discovered on GIST-1-positive disease. A total of 24 patients (54.5%) presented with localised disease and eight (33.3%) were classified as being at high risk of relapse. Patients with metastatic disease received imatinib in a palliative setting, whereas those with completely resected disease in the intermediate and high-risk groups were treated with adjuvant imatinib. Of the six patients (13.6%) with progressive metastatic disease, of which four had mutations on exon 11 and one on exon 9, while one had wild-type disease. Overall, rates of progression-free survival and overall survival (OS) at 100 months were 77.4% and 80.4%, respectively. Rates of OS for patients with localised and metastatic disease were 89.9% and 80.2%, respectively.

Conclusion

The presenting features and outcomes of patients with GISTs in Oman were comparable to those reported in the regional and international literature.

Preoperative C-Reactive Protein/Albumin Ratio is a Prognostic Indicator for Survival in Surgically Treated Gastrointestinal Stromal Tumors: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Background

Systemic inflammation and malnutrition may promote tumor progression. C-reactive protein/albumin ratio (CAR) is linked to the poor long-term survival of several malignant tumors.

Purpose

To explore the predictive value of CAR in gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GISTs).

Methods

A retrospective study was conducted on 325 patients with primary GIST surgically treated with curative intent from 2009 to 2018. The cut-off point of CAR was set using X-tile software. Kaplan–Meier method and multivariate Cox regression model were used to study the prognostic value of CAR. The time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve (tROC) was drawn, and the prognostic accuracy of CAR, Glasgow prognostic score (GPS), and National Institute of Health (NIH) risk classification was compared by the area under the curve (AUC).

Results

The best cut-off point of CAR was 0.55. Increased CAR was associated with the location of the lower digestive tract, larger tumor size, higher mitotic index, higher NIH risk classification, lower ALB, higher CRP, and higher GPS (all p<0.05). Multivariable analysis revealed that CAR (hazard ratio [HR] 2.598, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.385–4.874; p=0.003) was an independent predictor of overall survival. Additionally, the AUC of CAR was lower than that of NIH risk classification at 2 years (0.601 vs. 0.775, p=0.002) and 5 years (0.629 vs 0.735, p=0.069). However, the AUC of NIH risk classification significantly increased (2-year OS 0.801, p=0.251; 5-year OS 0.777, p=0.011) when combined with CAR.

Conclusion

CAR is a new independent predictor of poor survival in patients with GIST. CAR combined with NIH risk classification can effectively improve the performance of prognosis prediction.

A preoperative risk prediction model for high malignancy potential gastrointestinal stromal tumors of the stomach

BACKGROUND

Gastric gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GISTs) exhibit various degrees of aggression and malignant potential. However, no systematic preoperative evaluation strategy to predict the malignancy potential of gastric GISTs has yet been developed. This study aimed to develop a reliable and easy-to-use preoperative risk-scoring model for predicting high malignancy potential (HMP) gastric GISTs.

METHODS

The data of 542 patients with pathologically confirmed gastric GISTs who underwent resection were reviewed. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify significant predictors of HMP. The risk-scoring system (RSS) was based on the predictive factors for HMP, and its performance was validated using a split-sample approach.

RESULTS

A total of 239 of 542 (44.1%) surgically resected gastric GISTs had HMP. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that tumor size, location, and surface changes were independent risk factors for HMP. Based on the accordant regression coefficients, the presence of surface ulceration was assigned 1 point. Tumor sizes of 4-6 cm and > 6 cm were assigned 2 and 5 points, respectively. Two points were assigned to cardia or fundus locations. A score of 3 points was the optimal cut-off value for HMP prediction. HMP were found in 19.8% and 82.7% of the low and high-risk groups of the RSS, respectively. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve for predicting HMP was 0.81 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.75-0.86). Discrimination was good after validation (0.75, 95% CI 0.69-0.81).

CONCLUSION

This simple RSS could be useful for predicting the malignancy potential of gastric GISTs and may aid preoperative clinical decision making to ensure optimal treatment.

Disease-free Interval Is Associated with Oncologic Outcomes in Patients with Recurrent Gastrointestinal Stromal Tumor

BACKGROUND

Gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GIST) commonly recur following curative-intent resection. Patients with recurrent GIST display heterogeneous outcomes with limited prognostic tools. We investigated factors associated with post-recurrence survival (PRS) and progression-free survival (PFS).

METHODS

We performed a review of our institutional cancer registry from 2003 to 2018 for patients with GIST. Clinicopathologic and outcome data were collected. The disease-free interval (DFI) was calculated from the end of curative-intent oncologic therapy until recurrence. Outcomes were evaluated using Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazards modeling.

RESULTS

Overall, 254 patients underwent resection of primary, non-metastatic GIST, with 81 (32%) recurrences. The median age was 58 years and more than half of the patients with recurrence (n = 44; 54%) received adjuvant imatinib. Recurrence was most common in the liver (n = 34, 42%), peritoneum (n = 31, 38%), or liver plus peritoneum (n = 10, 12%). The median DFI was 14 months (interquartile range 2-26 months); 51 (63%) patients had a DFI ≤24 months and 30 (37%) had a DFI > 24 months. The median post-recurrence follow-up was 46 months. Compared with a DFI ≤24 months, patients with a DFI >24 months had increased 10-year PRS (77% vs. 41%, p < 0.05) and 10-year PFS (73% vs. 19%, p < 0.001). On multivariable analysis controlling for mutational and clinicopathologic features, a DFI >24 months was independently associated with increased PRS (hazard ratio [HR] 0.24, p < 0.01) and PFS (HR 0.18, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The DFI is independently associated with oncologic outcomes in recurrent GIST and may be useful in treatment planning. Recurrence after 24 months may signify indolent disease biology that may benefit from additional treatment, including metastasectomy.

Preoperative imaging of gastric GISTs underestimates pathologic tumor size: A retrospective, single institution analysis

BACKGROUND

How well imaging size agrees with pathologic size of gastric gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GISTs) is unknown. GIST risk stratification is based on pathologic size, location, and mitotic rate. To inform decision making, the size discrepancy between imaging and pathology for gastric GISTs was investigated.

METHODS

Imaging and pathology reports were reviewed for 113 patients. Bland-Altman analyses and intraclass correlation (ICC) assessed agreement of imaging and pathology. Changes in clinical risk category due to size discrepancy were identified.

RESULTS

Computed tomography (CT) (n = 110) and endoscopic ultrasound (EUS) (n = 50) underestimated pathologic size for gastric GISTs by 0.42 cm, 95% confidence interval (CI): (0.11, 0.73), p = 0.008 and 0.54 cm, 95% CI: (0.25, 0.82), p < 0.001, respectively. ICCs were 0.94 and 0.88 for CT and EUS, respectively. For GISTs ≤ 3 cm, size underestimation was 0.24 cm for CT (n = 28), 95% CI: (0.01, 0.47), p = 0.039 and 0.56 cm for EUS (n = 26), 95% CI: (0.27, 0.84), p < 0.0001. ICCs were 0.72 and 0.55 for CT and EUS, respectively. Spearman's correlation was ≥0.84 for all groups. For GISTs ≤ 3 cm, 6/28 (21.4% p = 0.01) on CT and 7/26 (26.9% p = 0.005) on EUS upgraded risk category using pathologic size versus imaging size. No GISTs ≤ 3 cm downgraded risk categories. Size underestimation persisted for GISTs ≤ 2 cm on EUS (0.39 cm, 95% CI: [0.06, 0.72], p = 0.02, post hoc analysis).

CONCLUSION

Imaging, particularly EUS, underestimates gastric GIST size. Caution should be exercised using imaging alone to risk-stratify gastric GISTs, and to decide between surveillance versus surgery.

Establishment and Verification of a Nomogram for Predicting Survival in Patients with Small Intestinal Gastrointestinal Stromal Tumors

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to develop and validate nomograms for predicting overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in small intestinal gastrointestinal stromal tumors (SI GISTs).

METHODS

Patients diagnosed with SI GISTs were retrieved from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database and further randomly divided into training and validating cohorts. Univariate and multivariate Cox analyses were conducted in the training set to determine independent prognostic factors to build nomograms for predicting 3- and 5-year OS and CSS. The performance of the nomograms was assessed by using the concordance index (C-index), calibration plot, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).

RESULTS

Data of a total of 776 patients with SI GISTs were retrospectively collected from the SEER database. The OS nomogram was constructed based on age, surgery, imatinib treatment, and American Joint Committee for Cancer (AJCC) stage, while the CSS nomogram incorporated age, surgery, tumor grade, and AJCC stage. In the training set, the C-index for the OS nomogram was 0.773 (95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 0.722-0.824) and for the CSS nomogram 0.806 (95% CI: 0.757-0.855). In the internal validation cohort, the C-index for the OS nomogram was 0.741, while for the CSS nomogram, it was 0.819. Well-corresponded calibration plots both in OS and CSS nomogram models were noticed. The comparisons of AUC values showed that the established nomograms exhibited superior discrimination power than the 7th Tumor-Node-Metastasis staging system.

CONCLUSION

Our nomogram can effectively predict 3- and 5-year OS and CSS in patients with SI GISTs, and its use can help improve the accuracy of personalized survival prediction and facilitate to provide constructive therapeutic suggestions.

Gastrointestinal stromal tumours

Gastrointestinal stromal tumours (GIST) have an incidence of ~1.2 per 10⁵ individuals per year in most countries. Around 80% of GIST have varying molecular changes, predominantly mutually exclusive activating KIT or PDGFRA mutations, but other, rare subtypes also exist. Localized GIST are curable, and surgery is their standard treatment. Risk factors for relapse are tumour size, mitotic index, non-gastric site and tumour rupture. Patients with GIST with KIT or PDGFRA mutations sensitive to the tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI) imatinib that are at high risk of relapse have improved survival with adjuvant imatinib treatment. In advanced disease, median overall survival has improved from 18 months to >70 months since the introduction of TKIs. The role of surgery in the advanced setting remains unclear. Resistance to TKIs arise mainly from subclonal selection of cells with resistance mutations in KIT or PDGFRA when they are the primary drivers. Advanced resistant GIST respond to second-line sunitinib and third-line regorafenib, as well as to the new broad-spectrum TKI ripretinib. Rare molecular forms of GIST with alterations involving NF1, SDH genes, BRAF or NTRK genes generally show primary resistance to standard TKIs, but some respond to specific inhibitors of the activated genes. Despite major advances, many questions in both advanced and localized disease remain unanswered.

Development and Validation of a Dynamic Nomogram to Predict the Risk of Neonatal White Matter Damage

Purpose

White matter damage (WMD) was defined as the appearance of rough and uneven echo enhancement in the white matter around the ventricle. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a risk prediction model for neonatal WMD.

Materials and Methods

We collected data for 1,733 infants hospitalized at the Department of Neonatology at The First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University from 2017 to 2020. Infants were randomly assigned to training (n = 1,216) or validation (n = 517) cohorts at a ratio of 7:3. Multivariate logistic regression and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression analyses were used to establish a risk prediction model and web-based risk calculator based on the training cohort data. The predictive accuracy of the model was verified in the validation cohort.

Results

We identified four variables as independent risk factors for brain WMD in neonates by multivariate logistic regression and LASSO analysis, including gestational age, fetal distress, prelabor rupture of membranes, and use of corticosteroids. These were used to establish a risk prediction nomogram and web-based calculator (https://caowenjun.shinyapps.io/dynnomapp/). The C-index of the training and validation sets was 0.898 (95% confidence interval: 0.8745-0.9215) and 0.887 (95% confidence interval: 0.8478-0.9262), respectively. Decision tree analysis showed that the model was highly effective in the threshold range of 1-61%. The sensitivity and specificity of the model were 82.5 and 81.7%, respectively, and the cutoff value was 0.099.

Conclusion

This is the first study describing the use of a nomogram and web-based calculator to predict the risk of WMD in neonates. The web-based calculator increases the applicability of the predictive model and is a convenient tool for doctors at primary hospitals and outpatient clinics, family doctors, and even parents to identify high-risk births early on and implementing appropriate interventions while avoiding excessive treatment of low-risk patients.

Outcome of 1000 Patients With Gastrointestinal Stromal Tumor (GIST) Treated by Surgery in the Pre- and Post-imatinib Eras

OBJECTIVE

To characterize the results of surgery for gastrointestinal stromal tumor (GIST) in the pre and post-imatinib eras at a single institution and to identify current prognostic clinicopathologic factors.

BACKGROUND

Imatinib has radically changed the management of GIST, yet the magnitude of impact on outcome across the spectrum of GIST presentation and relevance of historical prognostic factors are not well defined.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed 1000 patients who underwent surgery for GIST at our institution from 1982 to 2016. Patients were stratified by presentation status as primary tumor only (PRIM), primary with synchronous metastasis (PRIM + MET), or metachronous recurrence/metastases (MET), and also imatinib era (before and after it became available). Cox proportional-hazard models and Kaplan-Meier methods were used to model and estimate overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS).

RESULTS

OS was longer in the imatinib era compared with the pre-imatinib era in each presentation group, including in Miettinen high-risk primary tumors. Among PRIM patients from the pre-imatinib era, tumor site, size, and mitotic rate were independently associated with OS and RFS on multivariate analysis. PRIM patients in the imatinib era who received imatinib (neoadjuvant and/or adjuvant) had higher risk tumors, but after adjusting for treatment, only size >10 cm remained independently prognostic of RFS [hazard ratio (HR) 3.85, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.00-7.40, P < 0.0001) and OS (HR 3.37, 95% CI 1.60-7.13, P = 0.001)].

CONCLUSIONS

Patients treated in the imatinib era had prolonged OS across all presentations. In the imatinib era, among site, size, and mitotic rate, high-risk features were associated with treatment with the drug, but only size >10 cm correlated with outcome. Imatinib should still be prescribed for patients with high-risk features.

Characteristics and prognosis of jejunoileal gastrointestinal stromal tumours (GISTs) in the era of imatinib: a comparative study with gastric GISTs

BACKGROUND

Gastrointestinal stromal tumours (GISTs) located in the jejunum or ileum (JI-GIST) are considered worse prognosis compared to those of gastric (G-GIST) location. It has been suggested that this dogma should be revised. The aim of this study was to describe the characteristics of jejunoileal GISTs and its prognosis and to compare them with G-GISTs in the era of imatinib.

METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed the clinical histories of all the patients diagnosed with GISTs between January 2000 and November 2016: Clinical and pathological data, as recurrence, metastatic state, disease-free survival (DFS) as well as overall survival (OS) rates of patients were reviewed.

RESULTS

JI-GIST patients comprise 29 cases (37.7%). Compared to G-GIST, JI-GIST patients had undergone emergency surgery more frequently (37.9% vs. 10.4%, p = 0.007). According to the NIH-Fletcher classification, the low or very-low risk group represents 17.2% of JI-GISTs as opposed to 37.6% of G-GISTs (p < 0.005). When the AFIP-Miettinen system was used the low or very-low group represented 17.2% of JI-GISTs vs. 58.4% in the G-GISTs group (p < 0.001). Both local recurrence (24.1% vs. 12.5%, p < 0.05) and metastatic rate (34.5% vs. 22.9%, p < 0.05) were higher in the JI-GIST group than in G-GIST. 5- and 10-year DFS and 10-year OS rate were lower for JI-GIST (54.5% and 39.6% vs. 77.2% and 60.8%, and 57.9% vs. 65%, respectively, p < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

The observed differences between both groups in DFS and OS rates at long term could be attributed to the effect of imatinib.

Novel Prognostic Nomogram for Recurrence-Free Survival of Patients With Primary Gastrointestinal Stromal Tumors After Surgical Resection: Combination of Prognostic Nutritional Index and Basic Variables

Background

Gastrointestinal stromal tumor (GIST) is the most common type of mesenchymal tumors in the digestive tract, often recrudescing even after R0 resection. Adjuvant tyrosine kinase inhibitor therapy prolonged recurrence-free survival (RFS). This study aimed to develop a novel nomogram for predicting the RFS of patients following surgical resection of GISTs.

Methods

Clinicopathologic data of patients with GISTs at Tianjin Medical University General Hospital (Tianjin, China) from January 2000 to October 2019 were retrospectively reviewed. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to select the suitable variables from the training cohort to construct a nomogram for 2- and 5-year RFS. The 1,000 bootstrap samples and calibration curves were used to validate the discrimination of the nomogram. The receiver operating characteristic analysis(ROC) was used to compare the predictive ability of the nomogram and present four commonly used risk stratification systems: National Institutes of Health (NIH)–Fletcher staging system; NIH–Miettinen criteria; Modified NIH criteria; and Air Forces Institute of Pathology risk criteria (AFIP).

Results

Univariate and multivariate analyses showed that the tumor site, tumor size, mitotic index, tumor rupture, and prognostic nutritional index were significant factors associated with RFS. These variables were selected to create the nomogram for 2- and 5-year RFS (all P<0.05). The 2- and 5-year the ROC of the nomogram were 0.821 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.740–0.903) and 0.798 (95% CI: 0.739–0.903); NIH–Fletcher criteria were 0.757 (95% CI: 0.667–0.846) and 0.683 (95% CI: 0.613–0.753); NIH–Miettinen criteria were 0.762 (95% CI: 0.678–0.845) and 0.718 (95% CI: 0.653–0.783); Modified NIH criteria were 0.750 (95% CI: 0.661–0.838) and 0.689 (95% CI: 0.619–0.760); and AFIP were 0.777 (95% CI: 0.685–0.869) and 0.708 (95% CI: 0.636–0.780). Hence, the predictive probabilities of our nomogram are better than those of other GIST risk stratification systems.

Conclusion

This nomogram, combining tumor site, tumor size, mitotic index, tumor rupture, and prognostic nutritional index, may assist physicians in providing individualized treatment and surveillance protocols for patients with GISTs following surgical resection.

Co-Incidence of Paraesophageal Hernia and Perforated Gastrointestinal Stromal Tumor: A Case Report on Rare Presentation of GIST

Introduction: The most common connective tissue neoplasm of the gastrointestinal tract is gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GISTs). Its presentations are usually abdominal pain and gastrointestinal bleeding. Case Presentation: We report a 31-year-old man with abdominal pain presented to our hospital with 10 days history of abdominal pain. After radiologic investigations, total distended stomach paraesophageal hernia and antral deformity were seen in the CT scan. Subsequently, the patient underwent surgery and after releasing the stomach, a large sealed perforated mass was seen in the antrum near the diaphragmatic hiatus and small localized abscess that subtotal gastrectomy and hernia repair was done. Pathologic examination revealed that the perforated mass is a GIST. Conclusions: We report a rare complication of gist that is perforation and the first report of simultaneous paraesophageal hernia and perforated gist.

Strategies for care of patients with gastrointestinal stromal tumor or soft tissue sarcoma during COVID-19 pandemic: A guide for surgical oncologists

The coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is deeply impacting the accessibility of cancer patients to surgery. In resource-limited conditions, the standard of care might not be deliverable, but evidence to support alternative management strategies often exists. By revisiting available treatment options, this review provides surgical oncologists with an evidence-based framework for treating patients with gastrointestinal stromal tumor, extremity/truncal soft tissue sarcoma, and retroperitoneal sarcoma to rapidly adapt their decision-making to the constant evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic.

A novel nomogram for predicting liver metastasis in patients with gastrointestinal stromal tumor: a SEER-based study

Background

Liver metastasis (LIM) of gastrointestinal stromal tumor (GIST) is associated with poor prognosis. The present study aimed at developing and validating nomogram to predict LIM in patients with GIST, thus helping clinical diagnosis and treatment.

Methods

The data of GIST patients derived from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database from 2010 to 2016, which were then screened by univariate and multivariate logistic regression for the construction of LIM nomogram. The model discrimination of LIM nomogram was evaluated by concordance index (C-index) and calibration plots, while the predictive accuracy and clinical values were measured by decision curve analysis (DCA) and clinical impact plot. Furthermore, we validated predictive nomogram in the internal testing set.

Results

A total of 3797 patients were enrolled and divided randomly into training and validating groups in a 3-to-1 ratio. After logistic regression, the significant variables were sex, tumor location, tumor size, N stage and mitotic rate. The calibration curves showed the perfect agreement between nomogram predictions and actual observations, while the DCA and clinical impact plot showed the clinical utility of LIM nomogram. C-index of the nomogram was 0.812. What’s more, receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC) also showed good discrimination and calibration in the training set (AUC = 0.794, 95% CI 0.778–0.808) and the testing set (AUC = 0.775, 95% CI 0.748–0.802).

Conclusion

The nomogram for patients with GIST can effectively predict the individualized risk of liver metastasis and provide insightful information to clinicians to optimize therapeutic regimens.

External Validation of a Nomogram and Risk Grouping System for Predicting Individual Prognosis of Patients With Medulloblastoma

Background: Medulloblastoma (MB) is one of the most malignant neuroepithelial tumors in the central nervous system. This study aimed to establish an effective prognostic nomogram and risk grouping system for predicting overall survival (OS) of patients with MB.

Materials and Methods: The nomogram was constructed based on data from the database of Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER). This database consisted of 2,824 patients with medulloblastoma and was used as the training cohort. The data of another additional 161 patients treated at the Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center (SYSUCC) were used as the external validation cohort. Cox regression analysis was used to select independent prognostic factors. Concordance index (C-index) and calibration curve were used to predict the prognostic effect of the nomogram for overall survival.

Results: In the training cohort, Cox regression analyses showed that the prognostic factors included histopathology, surgery, radiotherapy, chemotherapy, tumor size, dissemination, and age at diagnosis. The internal and external validated C-indexes were 0.681 and 0.644, respectively. Calibration curves showed that the nomogram was able to predict 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS for patients with MB precisely. Using the training cohort, a risk grouping system was built, which could perfectly classify patients into four risk nomogroups with a 5-year survival rate of 83.9%, 76.5%, 64.5%, and 46.8%, respectively.

Conclusion: We built and validated a nomogram and risk grouping system that can provide individual prediction of OS and distinguish MB patients from different risk groups. This nomogram and risk grouping system could help clinicians making better treatment plan and prognostic assessment.

Retroperitoneal Extragastrointestinal Stromal Tumors Have a Poor Survival Outcome: A Multicenter Observational Study

Purpose

Gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GISTs) are commonly known to be derived from the gastrointestinal (GI) tract, but recently there have been more and more literature describing lesions with similar pathological and immunohistochemical resembling GISTs but located outside the GI tract, and they have been termed as extra-GISTs (eGISTs). However, due to the rare incidence of eGISTs, its association with survival outcomes is poorly understood, especially in the Chinese population. Here, we aimed to identify the risk factors of eGISTs and to assess their association with overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS).

Patients and Methods

Data of pathologically confirmed eGISTs cases, without radiological and perioperative evidence of other primary lesions, and with no microscopically identified adhesion between the tumor and the gastrointestinal serosa, which were surgically treated between January 2006 and September 2017 were retrieved from the database of four high-volume hospitals. Immunohistochemical and genetic testing were performed on the postoperative lesions and were staged using the National Institutes of Health (NIH) criteria.

Results

A total of 55 cases were retrieved. eGISTs were identified from the retroperitoneum (36.4%), mesocolon (25.5%), small bowel mesentery (12.7%), abdominopelvic cavity (12.7%), lesser omental sac (5.5%), ovary (3.6%), pancreatic capsule (1.8%), or urinary bladder (1.8%). Based on the NIH risk classification, majority of the lesion were classified as high risk (85.5%). KIT 11 was the most common mutation site (76.5%) and 25.0% of the cases were wild-type eGISTs. Multivariate analyses showed that tumor location and size were independent factors affecting prognoses. Patients with tumors in the retroperitoneum had significantly poorer OS and DFS as compared to those in the non-retroperitoneum (HR [95% CI] for OS and DFS: 2.546 [1.023–6.337] [P = 0.037] and 2.475 [0.975–6.273] [P = 0.049], respectively). Similar findings were found for tumors of size >15 cm, compared to ≤15 cm (HR [95% CI] for OS and DFS: 5.350 [2.022–14.156] [P < 0.001] and 3.861 [1.493–9.988] [P = 0.003], respectively).

Conclusion

eGISTs were predominantly found from the retroperitoneum and mostly classified as high risk. Those located in the retroperitoneum and of size >15 cm had the poorer OS and DFS as compared to those in the non-retroperitoneum and of size <15 cm.

Development and validation of a predictive model for the diagnosis of neural antibody-mediated epilepsy/ seizure in patients with new-onset seizure or established epilepsy

PURPOSE

Currently, the diagnosis of neural antibody-mediated epilepsy/seizure (NAME/S)relies heavily on neural antibody testing, which is time-consuming, costly and introduces diagnostic delays. A statistical tool to predict the probability of a patient with NAME/S is lacking. We aimed to construct a predictive model to help clinicians expedite the diagnostic process.

METHODS

We retrospectively recruited subjects (206 in the development group and 62 in the validation group) with new-onset seizures or established epilepsy suspected to have presented with antibody-mediated seizures between January 2014 and December 2019. We collected data about demographics, medical history, clinical manifestations and follow up. Binary logistic regression was used to select potential predictors for the construction of a predictive model. Five-fold cross and bootstrap validation were applied to avoid overfitting. Concordance index, calibration plots and decision curve analysis were used to assess its performance.

RESULTS

The model, incorporating presence/absence of tumour, psychiatric/cognitive/emotional changes, language disturbances, sensory auras, tonic-clonic seizures, multiple seizure events, hyponatremia and MRI inflammation, was visualized as a nomogram. The crude and adjusted concordance indices were both 0.88 with a cut-off value of 0.62, sensitivity of 83.2 % and specificity of 77.4 %. The slope and intercept of the calibration curve were 0 and 1, respectively. The model also showed good performance in the validation group with a concordance index of 0.82, cut-off value of 0.33, sensitivity of 75.5 % and specificity of 73.1 %. The slope was 0.86 and the intercept was 0.039. Decision curve analysis showed that the model was useful with an optimal threshold probability of ＞4 % in both groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite limitations such as sample volume and selection bias in subject enrolment, this model may be used to estimate the individualized probability of having NAME/S, deserving further exploration and validation.

Gastrointestinal Stromal Tumours (GIST): Indian Experience of Rare Malignancy

GISTs are rare tumours of the GI tract arising from the intestinal cells of Cajal. Though various risk stratification systems have been proposed, none has been universally accepted. We audited the survival and recurrence patterns in our patients and evaluated clinicopathological features to identify prognostic factors affecting survival. We conducted a retrospective analysis of patients treated at our hospital from 1999 to 2012. Patient variables, clinicopathological factors and treatment variables were collected. Sixty-three patients were evaluated and treated at our institute of which 38 were non-metastatic. The most common site of origin was the stomach. On univariate analysis, presence of metastasis, male gender, high mitotic rate, non-gastric primary and epithelioid histology were significantly associated with poor overall survival. Tumour size > 10 cm, mitotic rate > 10/50 hpf and presence of necrosis significantly affected disease-free survival for non-metastatic patients. Multivariate analysis showed higher mitotic rate and non-gastric primary to correlate with worse outcome. In our experience, a high mitotic rate and non-gastric primary independently predicted a poor prognosis in GIST.

Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram to predict recurrence in high-risk gastrointestinal stromal tumour: A retrospective analysis of two independent cohorts

BACKGROUND

The risk of recurrence in localised, primary gastrointestinal stromal tumour (GIST) classified as high-risk after complete resection varies significantly. Thus, we aimed to develop a nomogram to predict the recurrence of high-risk GIST after surgery to aid patient selection.

METHODS

We retrospectively evaluated patients (n = 424) with high-risk GIST who underwent curative resection as the initial treatment at two high-volume medical centres, between January 2005 and September 2019. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression model was utilised to select potentially relevant features. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards analysis was used to develop a novel nomogram.

FINDINGS

The nomogram comprised age, fibrinogen levels, prognostic nutritional index (PNI), platelet-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), mitotic counts and tumour size, which provided favourable calibration and discrimination in the training dataset with an AUC of 0•749 and a C-index of 0•742 (95%CI:0•689-0•804). Further, it showed acceptable discrimination in the validation cohort, with an AUC of 0•778 and C-index of 0•735 (95%CI:0•634-0•846). The time-dependant receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves performed well throughout the observation period. Additionally, the nomogram could classify high-risk GISTs into 'very high-risk' and 'general high-risk' groups with a hazard ratio (HR) of 5•190 (95%CI: 3•202-8•414) and 5•438 (95%CI: 2•236-13•229) for the training and validation datasets, respectively.

INTERPRETATION

The nomogram independently predicted post-operative recurrence-free survival (RFS) in high-risk GIST and showed favourable discrimination and calibration values. It may be a useful clinical tool for identifying 'very high-risk' GIST, by allowing treatment strategy optimisation in these patients.

FUNDING

National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 81702386 and 81874184).

Fibrinogen/Albumin Ratio Index Is an Independent Prognosis Predictor of Recurrence-Free Survival in Patients After Surgical Resection of Gastrointestinal Stromal Tumors

Background: Nutritional status, systemic inflammation, and coagulation mechanism are closely related to tumor progression. Herein, we examined the role of fibrinogen-to-albumin ratio index (FARI) in the prognosis of gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GISTs) and developed a novel nomogram predicting recurrence-free survival (RFS).

Methods: We retrospectively analyzed data from 357 GIST patients admitted at the gastrointestinal surgery of the Beijing Hospital from January 2008 to January 2018 and underwent curative resection. FARI was calculated as fibrinogen level (g/L) /albumin level (g/L). The cutoff point of FARI was set using the point with the largest Youden index on the receiver operating characteristic curve with the 5-years recurrence-free survival as an endpoint. We used the Kaplan-Meier approach and multivariable Cox regression model to study the impact of FARI on recurrence-free survival. Finally, we developed a nomogram based on tumor size, location, mitotic index, and FARI to predict RFS. The nomogram was assessed by calculating concordance probabilities and testing calibration of predicted RFS with observed RFS. Concordance probabilities were also compared with the National Institute of Health (NIH) risk classification system.

Results: The ROC curve revealed that the best cutoff point of the FARI was set as 0.08. The patients were classified into the FARI-high (≥0.08) and FARI-low (<0.08) groups. FARI was significantly associated with age, size of the tumor, NIH risk category, and Mitotic Index (all P < 0.05). FARI was weakly associated with NLR and PLR. FARI and PNI had a weak negative association. Multivariate analysis showed that the NIH risk category and FARI were independent prognostic predictors for worse outcomes concerning RFS in GIST patients. In the high-risk subgroup, patients with low FARI also had a more prolonged RFS than patients with high FARI (P < 0.05). The nomogram had a concordance probability of 0.802 (SE 0.025). Nomogram predictions were well-calibrated. Concordance probabilities of the nomogram were better than NIH risk classification system [0.802 [0.025] vs. 0.737 [0.024], p < 0.01].

Conclusion: We established that preoperative FARI is a novel serum biomarker to predict the prognosis after surgical resection of GISTs. The nomogram incorporating FARI could be used to help the decision-making of clinical treatment.

Recent advances in the management of gastrointestinal stromal tumor

Gastrointestinal stromal tumor (GIST) is a rare but an important clinical entity seen in our clinical practice. It is the most common mesenchymal tumor of the gastrointestinal tract and most common malignancy of the small intestine. Although the exact prevalence of GIST is not known, the incidence of GIST has been increasing. GISTs arise from interstitial cells of Cajal. Most of the GISTs occur due to mutation in c-kit gene or platelet derived growth factor receptor alpha gene. 15% of GISTs do not have these mutations and they are called wild-type GISTs. Almost all GISTs express KIT receptor tyrosine kinase. Histologically, GISTs look like spindle cell tumors most of the time but they can be epitheloid or mixed type. The median size of GISTs varies from 2.7 cm to 8.9 cm. Clinically, patients with small GISTs remain asymptomatic but as the GIST size increases, patients present with various symptoms depending on the location of the GIST. Most of GISTs are located in the stomach or small bowel. Diagnosis is suspected on imaging and endoscopic studies, and confirmed by tissue acquisition with immunohistochemical staining. The aggressiveness of GISTs depends on the size, mitotic index and location. Surgical resection is the treatment of choice. But various endoscopic modalities of resection are increasingly being tried. Tyrosine kinase inhibitors are extremely useful in the management of large GISTs, unresectable GISTs and metastatic GISTs. Treatment options for metastatic GISTs also include radiotherapy, chemotherapy, hepatic artery embolization, chemoembolization and radiofrequency ablation.

Survival in Patients with Neuroendocrine Tumours of the Small Intestine: Nomogram Validation and Predictors of Survival

Neuroendocrine tumours of the small intestine (SI-NETs) are rare and heterogeneous. There is an unmet need for prognostication of disease course and to aid treatment strategies. A previously developed nomogram based on clinical and tumour characteristics aims to predict disease-specific survival (DSS) in patients with a SI-NET. We aimed to validate the nomogram and identify predictors of survival. Four hundred patients with a grade 1 or 2 SI-NET were included, between January 2000 and June 2016. Predicted 5- and 10-year survival was compared to actual DSS. Multivariable analysis identified predictors for actual DSS. We found that in low-, medium- and high-risk groups 5-year nomogram DSS vs. actual DSS was 0.86 vs. 0.82 (p < 0.001), 0.52 vs. 0.71 (p < 0.001) and 0.26 vs. 0.53 (p < 0.001), respectively. Ten-year nomogram DSS vs. actual DSS was 0.68 vs. 0.69 (p < 0.001), 0.40 vs. 0.50 (p < 0.001) and 0.20 vs. 0.35 (p < 0.001), respectively. Age, WHO-performance score of 2, Ki-67 index ≥10, unknown primary tumour, CgA > 6x ULN and elevated liver tests were identified as independent predictors for a worse DSS. This shows that the nomogram was able to differentiate, but underestimated DSS for patients with a SI-NET. Improvement of prognostication incorporating new emerging biomarkers is necessary to adequately estimate survival.

Prognostic evaluation of esophageal cancer patients with stages I-III

PURPOSE

The purpose of this study was to investigate the impact of clinicopathological factors and treatments on the overall survival (OS) and esophageal cancer-specific survival (ECSS) of stages I-III esophageal cancer (EC) patients and to establish a prognostic visual nomogram.

METHODS

We collected clinical data of patients diagnosed with stages I-III EC without receiving chemotherapy from 2004 to 2014 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Prognoses were analyzed using the R language software, and nomograms were obtained according to the visual processing logistic regression model, which was verified using the Harrell C-index, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and calibration curve.

RESULTS

A total of 4,305 patients were selected, mostly white males. Most patients were over 60 years old and old age predicted poor prognosis. EC, primarily adenocarcinoma, occurred mostly in the lower third of the esophagus. About half of the patients had T1 (58.00%) and grade II (50.41%) cancer. Of all the patients, 2,448 was treated with surgery and the majority (n = 1,476; 64.85%) of these patients had stage I EC. Stages I-III patients underwent surgery had significantly better OS and ECSS, and endoscopic therapy was associated with the best outcome amongst all the surgical methods. 3.67% of the patients received radiotherapy, predominantly postoperative radiotherapy (2.69%). Older age, squamous cell carcinoma, overlapping lesion of the esophagus, and grades II and III were high-risk factors for poor OS and ECSS for stage I patients, whereas endoscopic therapy, esophagectomy, and esophagectomy with gastrectomy were low-risk factors. Stage II patients with older age, male sex, T3, N1, and grades II and III had shorter OS and ECSS, but patients with any surgical treatment had significantly longer OS and ECSS. T4, N1, and grade III correlated negatively with OS and ECSS in stage III patients, and any surgical treatment correlated positively with longer OS and ECSS. The OS and ECSS rates of stages I-III EC patients with a total score of more than 150 points in the nomogram were both only 40% after 3 years and 30% after 5 years. The C-index, ROC curve, and calibration curve indicated that the nomograms established in this study were suitable to assess patient prognosis.

CONCLUSION

The nomogram established in this study is an effective clinical tool to predict the prognosis of stages I-III EC patients without chemotherapy.