Declining ecosystem health and the dilution effect

Landscape, Climate and Hantavirus Cardiopulmonary Syndrome Outbreaks

We performed a literature review in order to improve our understanding of how landscape and climate drivers affect HCPS outbreaks. Anthropogenic landscape changes such as forest loss, fragmentation and agricultural land uses are related with a boost in hantavirus reservoir species abundance and hantavirus prevalence in tropical areas, increasing HCPS risk. Additionally, higher precipitation, especially in arid regions, favors an increase in vegetational biomass, which augments the resources for reservoir rodents, also increasing HCPS risk. Although these relationships were observed, few studies described it so far, and the ones that did it are concentrated in few places. To guide future research on this issue, we build a conceptual model relating landscape and climate variables with HCPS outbreaks and identified research opportunities. We point out the need for studies addressing the effects of landscape configuration, temperature and the interaction between climate and landscape variables. Critical landscape thresholds are also highly relevant, once HCPS risk transmission can increase rapidly above a certain degree of landscape degradation. These studies could be relevant to implement preventive measures, creating landscapes that can mitigate disease spread risk.

Spatial prediction and validation of zoonotic hazard through micro-habitat properties: where does Puumala hantavirus hole - up?

Background

To predict the risk of infectious diseases originating in wildlife, it is important to identify habitats that allow the co-occurrence of pathogens and their hosts. Puumala hantavirus (PUUV) is a directly-transmitted RNA virus that causes hemorrhagic fever in humans, and is carried and transmitted by the bank vole (Myodes glareolus). In northern Sweden, bank voles undergo 3–4 year population cycles, during which their spatial distribution varies greatly.

Methods

We used boosted regression trees; a technique inspired by machine learning, on a 10 – year time-series (fall 2003–2013) to develop a spatial predictive model assessing seasonal PUUV hazard using micro-habitat variables in a landscape heavily modified by forestry. We validated the models in an independent study area approx. 200 km away by predicting seasonal presence of infected bank voles in a five-year-period (2007–2010 and 2015).

Results

The distribution of PUUV-infected voles varied seasonally and inter-annually. In spring, micro-habitat variables related to cover and food availability in forests predicted both bank vole and infected bank vole presence. In fall, the presence of PUUV-infected voles was generally restricted to spruce forests where cover was abundant, despite the broad landscape distribution of bank voles in general. We hypothesize that the discrepancy in distribution between infected and uninfected hosts in fall, was related to higher survival of PUUV and/or PUUV-infected voles in the environment, especially where cover is plentiful.

Conclusions

Moist and mesic old spruce forests, with abundant cover such as large holes and bilberry shrubs, also providing food, were most likely to harbor infected bank voles. The models developed using long-term and spatially extensive data can be extrapolated to other areas in northern Fennoscandia. To predict the hazard of directly transmitted zoonoses in areas with unknown risk status, models based on micro-habitat variables and developed through machine learning techniques in well-studied systems, could be used.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12879-017-2618-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Dampening of population cycles in voles affects small mammal community structure, decreases diversity, and increases prevalence of a zoonotic disease

Long-term decline and depression of density in cyclic small rodents is a recent widespread phenomenon. These observed changes at the population level might have cascading effects at the ecosystem level. Here, we assessed relationships between changing boreal landscapes and biodiversity changes of small mammal communities. We also inferred potential effects of observed community changes for increased transmission risk of Puumala virus (PUUV) spread, causing the zoonotic disease nephropatica epidemica in humans. Analyses were based on long-term (1971-2013) monitoring data of shrews and voles representing 58 time series in northern Sweden. We calculated richness, diversity, and evenness at alpha, beta, and gamma level, partitioned beta diversity into turnover (species replacement) and nestedness (species addition/removal), used similarity percentages (SIMPER) analysis to assess community structure, and calculated the cumulated number of PUUV-infected bank voles and average PUUV prevalence (percentage of infected bank voles) per vole cycle. Alpha, beta, and gamma richness and diversity of voles, but not shrews, showed long-term trends that varied spatially. The observed patterns were associated with an increase in community contribution of bank vole (Myodes glareolus), a decrease of gray-sided vole (M. rufocanus) and field vole (Microtus agrestis) and a hump-shaped variation in contribution of common shrew (Sorex araneus). Long-term biodiversity changes were largely related to changes in forest landscape structure. Number of PUUV-infected bank voles in spring was negatively related to beta and gamma diversity, and positively related to turnover of shrews (replaced by voles) and to community contribution of bank voles. The latter was also positively related to average PUUV prevalence in spring. We showed that long-term changes in the boreal landscape contributed to explain the decrease in biodiversity and the change in structure of small mammal communities. In addition, our results suggest decrease in small mammal diversity to have knock-on effects on dynamics of infectious diseases among small mammals with potential implications for disease transmission to humans.

Sand fly population dynamics and cutaneous leishmaniasis among soldiers in an Atlantic forest remnant in northeastern Brazil

Outbreaks of cutaneous leishmaniasis are relatively common among soldiers involved in nocturnal activities in tropical forests. We investigated the population dynamics of sand flies in a military training camp located in a remnant of Atlantic rainforest in northeastern Brazil, where outbreaks of cutaneous leishmaniasis have sporadically been described. From July 2012 to July 2014, light traps were monthly placed in 10 collection sites, being nine sites located near the forest edge and one near a sheep and goat stable. Light traps operated from 5:00 pm to 6:00 am, during four consecutive nights. Leishmania infection in sand flies was assessed using a fast real-time PCR assay. Cases of cutaneous leishmaniasis among soldiers were also investigated. In total, 24,606 sand flies belonging to 25 species were identified. Males (n = 12,683) predominated over females (n = 11,923). Sand flies were present during all months, being more numerous in March (n = 1,691) and April 2013 (n = 3,324). Lutzomyia choti (72.9%) was the most abundant species, followed by Lutzomyia longispina (13.8%), Lutzomyia complexa (5.3%), representing together >90% of the sand flies collected. Forty cases of cutaneous leishmaniasis were recorded among soldiers from January 2012 to December 2014. Leishmania isolates were obtained from eight patients and were all characterized as Leishmania braziliensis. Soldiers and anyone overnighting in Atlantic rainforest remnants should adopt preventative measures such as the use of repellents on bare skin or clothes and insecticide-treated tents.

Outbreaks of cutaneous leishmaniasis are relatively common among soldiers involved in nocturnal activities in tropical forests. However, there is limited information on the relationship between sand fly population dynamics and cases of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Atlantic forest remnants. In this study, we investigated the population dynamics of sand flies in a military training camp located in a remnant of Atlantic rainforest in northeastern Brazil, where outbreaks of cutaneous leishmaniasis have sporadically been described. In total, 24,606 sand flies belonging to 25 species were identified. Sand flies were present during all months, being more numerous in March and April 2013. Lutzomyia choti was the most abundant species and three pools of females belonging to this species were found to be positive for Leishmania braziliensis DNA. Our results suggest that the risk of cutaneous leishmaniasis by Leishmania braziliensis in Atlantic rainforest remnants is permanent and thus not dictated by sand fly population peaks. People overnighting in Atlantic rainforest remnants should adopt preventative measures such as the use of repellents on bare skin or clothes and insecticide-treated tents.