Metapopulation extinction caused by mutation accumulation

Is the F(ST) a good predictor of extinction?

The organization of neutral genetic variation has long been used as a diagnostic tool to infer demographic properties of populations, and recently it has been shown that this information can also be used to estimate the magnitude of genetic deterioration in small or fragmented populations. A further step of this research is to assess whether neutral genetic indicators can serve to predict and compare the viabilities of endangered species. I use modeling to explore how ecological metapopulation settings are related to neutral genetic indicators (such as the fixation index [F(ST)]), changes in genetic load, and metapopulation viability. The analysis indicates that genetic indicators are generally strongly and consistently correlated with the genetic load, population size and structure, and time of extinction but identifies two potential limitations for their use in viability assessments. First, the regime of environmental perturbations is not accurately reflected by neutral indicators, so that their predictive power may be reduced in variable environments. Second, many species are threatened by recent human-induced changes of their habitat configuration. In most cases, genetic indicators may not have reached their equilibrium value in the altered habitat, which limits their ability to compare species with heterogeneous histories and life-history traits.

Joint effects of inbreeding and local adaptation on the evolution of genetic load after fragmentation

Disruption of gene flow among demes after landscape fragmentation can facilitate local adaptation but increase the effect of genetic drift and inbreeding. The joint effects of these conflicting forces on the mean fitness of individuals in a population are unknown. Through simulations, we explored the effect of increased isolation on the evolution of genetic load over the short and long term when fitness depends in part on local adaptation. We ignored genetic effects on demography. We modeled complex genomes, where a subset of the loci were under divergent selection in different localities. When a fraction of the loci were under heterogeneous selection, isolation increased mean fitness in larger demes made up of hundreds of individuals because of improved local adaptation. In smaller demes of tens of individuals, increased isolation improved local adaptation very little and reduced overall fitness. Short-term improvement of mean fitness after fragmentation may not be indicative of the long-term evolution of fitness. Whatever the deme size and potential for local adaptation, migration of one or two individuals per generation minimized the genetic load in general. The slow dynamics of mean fitness following fragmentation suggests that conservation measures should be implemented before the consequences of isolation on the genetic load become of concern.

Sibship reconstruction demonstrates the extremely low effective population size of striped bass Morone saxatilis in the Santee-Cooper system, South Carolina, USA

For organisms with great fecundity and high mortality in early life stages, such as shellfish or fishes, the need to match reproductive activity with environmental conditions conducive to spawning, fertilization, larval development and recruitment may result in extreme variance in reproductive success among individuals. The main objective of this study was to investigate evidence of large variance in the reproductive success of the striped bass Morone saxatilis in the Santee-Cooper system, South Carolina, USA. Seven microsatellite loci were analysed in 603 recruits representing three yearly cohorts from 1992 to 1994, and a group analysis was performed to identify full-sib families. Large variance in reproductive success was detected, with a few large, full-sib families contributing disproportionately to each of the cohorts. The severity of sweepstakes reproductive success varied among cohorts depending on environmentally imposed mortality. Estimations of the effective number of breeders in these long-lived fish ranged from 24 in 1992 to 44 in 1994. Furthermore, the estimated genetic effective population size (N(e) = 93) is approximately four orders of magnitude lower than estimates of adult census size (N = 362 000). Furthermore, the presence of large full-sib families indicates that striped bass engage in pair mating in the wild. Heterogeneity in genetic composition was also observed among cohorts, suggesting that genetically different adults contribute to different cohorts and that chance rather than fitness variation determines reproductive success.

Cross-species amplification of 92 microsatellites of Medicago truncatula

Medicago species are important genetic sources for forage crops and nitrogen sources for various ecosystems. The ongoing genome sequencing of the model legume, Medicago truncatula, provides a wealth of genetic markers potentially useful for characterizing the population genetic structure and evolutionary history, and the potential of the wild Medicago species. Here we tested the PCR amplification of 92 microsatellites developed from M. truncatula in six other Medicago species, and found that the cross-species transferability, ranging from 53.26% to 61.96%, is comparable with those reported in other angiosperm genera. This article thus reports a number of microsatellites that are potentially useful for large-scale ecological and evolutionary genetic studies of wild Medicago species.

Predicting the deleterious effects of mutation load in fragmented populations

Human-induced habitat fragmentation constitutes a major threat to biodiversity. Both genetic and demographic factors combine to drive small and isolated populations into extinction vortices. Nevertheless, the deleterious effects of inbreeding and drift load may depend on population structure, migration patterns, and mating systems and are difficult to predict in the absence of crossing experiments. We performed stochastic individual-based simulations aimed at predicting the effects of deleterious mutations on population fitness (offspring viability and median time to extinction) under a variety of settings (landscape configurations, migration models, and mating systems) on the basis of easy-to-collect demographic and genetic information. Pooling all simulations, a large part (70%) of variance in offspring viability was explained by a combination of genetic structure (F(ST)) and within-deme heterozygosity (H(S)). A similar part of variance in median time to extinction was explained by a combination of local population size (N) and heterozygosity (H(S)). In both cases the predictive power increased above 80% when information on mating systems was available. These results provide robust predictive models to evaluate the viability prospects of fragmented populations.

Quantifying the threat of extinction from Muller's ratchet in the diploid Amazon molly (Poecilia formosa)

BACKGROUND

The Amazon molly (Poecilia formosa) is a small unisexual fish that has been suspected of being threatened by extinction from the stochastic accumulation of slightly deleterious mutations that is caused by Muller's ratchet in non-recombining populations. However, no detailed quantification of the extent of this threat is available.

RESULTS

Here we quantify genomic decay in this fish by using a simple model of Muller's ratchet with the most realistic parameter combinations available employing the evolution@home global computing system. We also describe simple extensions of the standard model of Muller's ratchet that allow us to deal with selfing diploids, triploids and mitotic recombination. We show that Muller's ratchet creates a threat of extinction for the Amazon molly for many biologically realistic parameter combinations. In most cases, extinction is expected to occur within a time frame that is less than previous estimates of the age of the species, leading to a genomic decay paradox.

CONCLUSION

How then does the Amazon molly survive? Several biological processes could individually or in combination solve this genomic decay paradox, including paternal leakage of undamaged DNA from sexual sister species, compensatory mutations and many others. More research is needed to quantify the contribution of these potential solutions towards the survival of the Amazon molly and other (ancient) asexual species.

Cross-species transfer of nuclear microsatellite markers: potential and limitations

Molecular ecologists increasingly require 'universal' genetic markers that can easily be transferred between species. The distribution of cross-species transferability of nuclear microsatellite loci is highly uneven across taxa, being greater in animals and highly variable in flowering plants. The potential for successful cross-species transfer appears highest in species with long generation times, mixed or outcrossing breeding systems, and where genome size in the target species is small compared to the source. We discuss the implications of these findings and close with an outlook on potential alternative sources of cross-species transferable markers.

Mating systems and the efficacy of selection at the molecular level

Mating systems are thought to play a key role in molecular evolution through their effects on effective population size (N(e)) and effective recombination rate. Because of reduced N(e), selection in self-fertilizing species is supposed to be less efficient, allowing fixation of weakly deleterious alleles or lowering adaptation, which may jeopardize their long-term evolution. Relaxed selection pressures in selfers should be detectable at the molecular level through the analyses of the ratio of nonsynonymous and synonymous divergence, D(n)/D(s), or the ratio of nonsynonymous and synonymous polymorphism, pi(n)/pi(s). On the other hand, selfing reveals recessive alleles to selection (homozygosity effect), which may counterbalance the reduction in N(e). Through population genetics models, this study investigates which process may prevail in natural populations and which conditions are necessary to detect evidence for relaxed selection signature at the molecular level in selfers. Under a wide range of plausible population and mutation parameters, relaxed selection against deleterious mutations should be detectable, but the differences between the two mating systems can be weak. At equilibrium, differences between outcrossers and selfers should be more pronounced using divergence measures (D(n)/D(s) ratio) than using polymorphism data (pi(n)/pi(s) ratio). The difference in adaptive substitution rates between outcrossers and selfers is much less predictable because it critically depends on the dominance levels of new advantageous mutations, which are poorly known. Different ways of testing these predictions are suggested, and implications of these results for the evolution of self-fertilizing species are also discussed.

Mutation accumulation and fitness effects in hybridogenetic populations: a comparison to sexual and asexual systems

BACKGROUND

Female only unisexual vertebrates that reproduce by hybridogenesis show an unusual genetic composition. They are of hybrid origin but show no recombination between the genomes of their parental species. Instead, the paternal genome is discarded from the germline prior to meiosis, and gametes (eggs only) contain solely unrecombined maternal genomes. Hence hybridogens only transmit maternally inherited mutations. Hybridity is restored each generation by backcrossing with males of the sexual parental species whose genome was eliminated. In contrast, recombining sexual species propagate an intermixed pool of mutations derived from the maternal and paternal parts of the genome. If mutation rates are lower in female gametes than males, it raises the possibility for lower mutation accumulation in a hybridogenetic population, and consequently, higher population fitness than its sexual counterpart.

RESULTS

We show through Monte-Carlo simulations that at higher male to female mutation ratios, and sufficiently large population sizes, hybridogenetic populations can carry a lower mutation load than sexual species. This effect is more pronounced with synergistic forms of epistasis. Mutations accumulate faster on the sexual part of the genome, and with the purifying effects of epistasis, it makes it more difficult for mutations to be transmitted on the clonal part of the genome. In smaller populations, the same mechanism reduces the speed of Muller's Ratchet and the number of fixed mutations compared to similar asexual species.

CONCLUSION

Since mutation accumulation can be less pronounced in hybridogenetic populations, the question arises why hybridogenetic organisms are so scarce compared to sexual species. In considering this, it is likely that comparison of population fitnesses is not sufficient. Despite competition with the sexual parental species, hybrid populations are dependent on the maintenance of--and contact with--their sexual counterpart. Other problems may involve too little genetic diversity to respond to changing environments and problems in becoming hybridogenetic (e.g. disruption of meiosis and subsequent infertility or sterility). Yet, lower mutation accumulation in hybridogenetic populations opens the possibility that hybridogenetic species can develop into new sexual species once recombination is re-established and reproductive isolation from sexual ancestors has occurred.

Coevolution of symbiotic mutualists and parasites in a community context

Recent advances in our knowledge of parasitic and mutualistic associations have confirmed the central role of coevolutionary interactions in population and community ecology. Here, we discuss the potential coevolutionary interdependence of the strength and specificity of symbiotic interactions with the complexity and productivity of their environment. We predict that interactions become less beneficial with increasing environmental quality and that the association of productivity with symbiont specificity depends on the relative strengths of tradeoffs between host range and other life-history parameters. However, as biotic complexity increases, pathogen specificity is predicted to decline, whereas mutualist specificity will increase. Testing these predictions on a geographical scale would contribute significantly to the predictive science of coevolution, and to our ability to manage biological interactions embedded in increasingly fragmented landscapes.

Common sex-linked deleterious alleles in a plant parasitic fungus alter infection success but show no pleiotropic advantage

Microbotryum violaceum is a fungus that causes the sterilizing anther smut disease in Caryophyllaceae. Its diploid teliospores normally produce equal proportions of haploid sporidia of its two mating types. However natural populations contain high frequencies of individuals producing sporidia of only one mating type ('biased strains'). This mating type-ratio bias is caused by deleterious alleles at haploid phase ('haplo-lethals') linked to the mating type locus that can be transmitted only by intra-tetrad selfing. We used experimental inoculations to test some of the hypotheses proposed to explain the maintenance of haplo-lethals. We found a disadvantage of biased strains in infection ability and high intra-tetrad mating rates. Biased strains had no higher competitive ability nor shorter latency and their higher spore production per flower appeared insufficient to compensate their disadvantages. These findings were only consistent with the hypothesis that haplo-lethals are maintained under a metapopulation structure because of high intra-tetrad selfing rates, founder effects and selection at the population level.

Joint evolution of dispersal and inbreeding load

Inbreeding avoidance is often invoked to explain observed patterns of dispersal, and theoretical models indeed point to a possibly important role. However, while inbreeding load is usually assumed constant in these models, it is actually bound to vary dynamically under the combined influences of mutation, drift, and selection and thus to evolve jointly with dispersal. Here we report the results of individual-based stochastic simulations allowing such a joint evolution. We show that strongly deleterious mutations should play no significant role, owing to the low genomic mutation rate for such mutations. Mildly deleterious mutations, by contrast, may create enough heterosis to affect the evolution of dispersal as an inbreeding-avoidance mechanism, but only provided that they are also strongly recessive. If slightly recessive, they will spread among demes and accumulate at the metapopulation level, thus contributing to mutational load, but not to heterosis. The resulting loss of viability may then combine with demographic stochasticity to promote population fluctuations, which foster indirect incentives for dispersal. Our simulations suggest that, under biologically realistic parameter values, deleterious mutations have a limited impact on the evolution of dispersal, which on average exceeds by only one-third the values expected from kin-competition avoidance.

Genetic load in subdivided populations: interactions between the migration rate, the size and the number of subpopulations

We assess the relative importance of migration rate, size and number of subpopulations on the genetic load of subdivided populations. Using diffusion approximations, we show that in most cases subdivision has detrimental effects on fitness. Moreover, our results suggest that fitness increases with subpopulation size, so that for the same total population size, genetic load is relatively lower when there are a small number of large subpopulations. Using elasticity analysis, we show that the size of the subpopulations appears to be the parameter that most strongly determines genetic load. interconnecting subpopulations via migration would also be of importance for population fitness when subpopulations are small and gene flow is low. Interestingly, the number of subpopulations has minor influence on genetic load except for the case of both very slightly deleterious mutations and small subpopulations. Elasticities decrease as the magnitude of deleterious effects increases. In other words, population structure does not matter for very deleterious alleles, but strongly affects fitness for slightly deleterious alleles.

Sampling from natural populations with RNAI reveals high outcrossing and population structure in Caenorhabditis elegans

Despite a nearly worldwide distribution in nature, Caenorhabditis elegans exhibits low levels of genetic polymorphism, possibly as an indirect consequence of low levels of outcrossing. In the laboratory, Caenorhabditis elegans males are produced at low rates and are steadily eliminated from cultures, so that reproduction happens largely through self-fertilization in hermaphrodites. C. elegans is increasingly the focus of evolutionary research; however, natural outcrossing rates are difficult to measure because mating tests with laboratory strains are usually required to identify C. elegans. We sampled natural populations of C. elegans with an RNA interference (RNAi) assay. Heterozygosities and polymorphism patterns revealed surprisingly high levels of population structure and outcrossing (approximately 22% of individuals are estimated to be the result of outcrossing and not self-fertilization). The finding of strong local population structure, together with low levels of diversity on local and global scales, suggests a metapopulation model of frequent extinction and recolonization of local populations. The occurrence of substantial outcrossing suggests that the extinction of local populations is probably not driven by the accumulation of harmful mutations.

Connectivity, habitat heterogeneity, and population persistence in Ranunculus nodiflorus, an endangered species in France

Here, we explore the role of habitat spatial structure in the maintenance of metapopulations of Ranunculus nodiflorus. This rare species grows in puddles that can be connected occasionally by flooded corridors. We monitored five locations in the Fontainebleau forest, France, since 2002 and recorded the presence of corridors among puddles and evaluated their impact on puddle demography and plant fitness. We showed that connections increased population size, by increasing both the number of puddles occupied by the species and the density of individuals within puddles, but seemed to have no direct influence on plant fitness. We found no evidence of a large persistent soil seed bank. Natural corridors are likely to decrease the extinction probability of the populations, most probably by allowing recolonization of empty puddles after extinctions. Therefore, the preservation of corridors appears crucial for the conservation of R. nodiflorus in its natural habitat.

Landscape equivalency analysis: methodology for estimating spatially explicit biodiversity credits

We propose a biodiversity credit system for trading endangered species habitat designed to minimize and reverse the negative effects of habitat loss and fragmentation, the leading cause of species endangerment in the United States. Given the increasing demand for land, approaches that explicitly balance economic goals against conservation goals are required. The Endangered Species Act balances these conflicts based on the cost to replace habitat. Conservation banking is a means to manage this balance, and we argue for its use to mitigate the effects of habitat fragmentation. Mitigating the effects of land development on biodiversity requires decisions that recognize regional ecological effects resulting from local economic decisions. We propose Landscape Equivalency Analysis (LEA), a landscape-scale approach similar to HEA, as an accounting system to calculate conservation banking credits so that habitat trades do not exacerbate regional ecological effects of local decisions. Credits purchased by public agencies or NGOs for purposes other than mitigating a take create a net investment in natural capital leading to habitat defragmentation. Credits calculated by LEA use metapopulation genetic theory to estimate sustainability criteria against which all trades are judged. The approach is rooted in well-accepted ecological, evolutionary, and economic theory, which helps compensate for the degree of uncertainty regarding the effects of habitat loss and fragmentation on endangered species. LEA requires application of greater scientific rigor than typically applied to endangered species management on private lands but provides an objective, conceptually sound basis for achieving the often conflicting goals of economic efficiency and long-term ecological sustainability.

Maintenance of Sex‐Linked Deleterious Alleles by Selfing and Group Selection in Metapopulations of the Phytopathogenic FungusMicrobotryum violaceum

Microbotryum violaceum is a fungus that causes the sterilizing anther smut disease in many Caryophyllaceae. Its diploid teliospores are heterozygous at the mating-type locus, normally producing equal proportions of haploid sporidia of the two mating types. However, natural populations contain high frequencies of individuals producing sporidia of only one mating type. This mating-type ratio bias is caused by the presence of deleterious alleles at haploid phase ("haplo-lethals") linked to the mating-type locus. These haplo-lethals can be transmitted if there is conjugation among the products of meiosis (intratetrad selfing). Haplo-lethals still suffer from selective disadvantages, through reducing the infection probability of strains that carry them, and thus cannot persist in a panmictic population. We develop a realistic model of a metapopulation of M. violaceum on its host Silene latifolia. Simulations show that if intratetrad selfing rate is high, haplo-lethals can be maintained under a metapopulation structure because of founder effects and selection at the population level. Populations founded only by strains carrying haplo-lethals experience a lower extinction rate precisely because of their lower infection ability; they spread more slowly and sterilize fewer plants, thereby allowing their host population to grow more rapidly and therefore to be less prone to extinction.

Slight differences among individuals and the unified neutral theory of biodiversity

The unified neutral theory of biodiversity provides a very simple and counterintuitive explanation of species diversity patterns. By specifying speciation, community size and dispersal, and completely ignoring differences among individual organisms and species, it generates biodiversity patterns that remarkably resemble natural ones. Here I show that adding even slight differences among organisms generates very different patterns and predictions. In large communities with widespread dispersal, heritable differences in viability among individual organisms lead to biodiversity patterns characterised by the overdominance of a single species comprising organisms with relatively high fitness. In communities with local dispersal, the same differences produce rapid community extinction. I conclude that the unified neutral theory is not robust to slight deviations from its most controversial assumption.

Environmental mutagenesis during the end-Permian ecological crisis

During the end-Permian ecological crisis, terrestrial ecosystems experienced preferential dieback of woody vegetation. Across the world, surviving herbaceous lycopsids played a pioneering role in repopulating deforested terrain. We document that the microspores of these lycopsids were regularly released in unseparated tetrads indicative of failure to complete the normal process of spore development. Although involvement of mutation has long been hinted at or proposed in theory, this finding provides concrete evidence for chronic environmental mutagenesis at the time of global ecological crisis. Prolonged exposure to enhanced UV radiation could account satisfactorily for a worldwide increase in land plant mutation. At the end of the Permian, a period of raised UV stress may have been the consequence of severe disruption of the stratospheric ozone balance by excessive emission of hydrothermal organohalogens in the vast area of Siberian Traps volcanism.

Use of diploid male frequency data as an indicator of pollinator decline

Pollination deficits in agricultural and natural systems are suggestive of large reductions in pollinator populations. However, actual declines are difficult to demonstrate using census data. Here, we show census data to be misleading because many abundant pollinators exhibit high levels of production of sterile diploid males usually found only in small inbred hymenopteran populations; Euglossa imperialis exhibits high levels of diploid male production induced by low effective population sizes (Ne approximately 15), despite being the most abundant orchid bee in lowland tropical forests in Panama. We caution that although some pollinators appear abundant on the basis of census data, their long-term persistence may be highly tenuous based on genetic evidence. We propose the use of diploid male frequency data as a metric for assessing the sustainability of bee populations.

Limited effect of anthropogenic habitat fragmentation on molecular diversity in a rain forest skink, Gnypetoscincus queenslandiae

To examine the effects of recent habitat fragmentation, we assayed genetic diversity in a rain forest endemic lizard, the prickly forest skink (Gnypetoscincus queenslandiae), from seven forest fragments and five sites in continuous forest on the Atherton tableland of northeastern Queensland, Australia. The rain forest in this region was fragmented by logging and clearing for dairy farms in the early 1900s and most forest fragments studied have been isolated for 50-80 years or nine to 12 skink generations. We genotyped 411 individuals at nine microsatellite DNA loci and found fewer alleles per locus in prickly forest skinks from small rain forest fragments and a lower ratio of allele number to allele size range in forest fragments than in continuous forest, indicative of a decrease in effective population size. In contrast, and as expected for populations with small neighbourhood sizes, neither heterozygosity nor variance in allele size differed between fragments and sites in continuous forests. Considering measures of among population differentiation, there was no increase in FST among fragments and a significant isolation by distance pattern was identified across all 12 sites. However, the relationship between genetic (FST) and geographical distance was significantly stronger for continuous forest sites than for fragments, consistent with disruption of gene flow among the latter. The observed changes in genetic diversity within and among populations are small, but in the direction predicted by the theory of genetic erosion in recently fragmented populations. The results also illustrate the inherent difficulty in detecting genetic consequences of recent habitat fragmentation, even in genetically variable species, and especially when effective population size and dispersal rates are low.

Patterns of Inbreeding Depression and Architecture of the Load in Subdivided Populations

Inbreeding depression is a general phenomenon that is due mainly to recessive deleterious mutations, the so-called mutation load. It has been much studied theoretically. However, until very recently, population structure has not been taken into account, even though it can be an important factor in the evolution of populations. Population subdivision modifies the dynamics of deleterious mutations because the outcome of selection depends on processes both within populations (selection and drift) and between populations (migration). Here, we present a general model that permits us to gain insight into patterns of inbreeding depression, heterosis, and the load in subdivided populations. We show that they can be interpreted with reference to single-population theory, using an appropriate local effective population size that integrates the effects of drift, selection, and migration. We term this the “effective population size of selection” (NeS). For the infinite island model, for example, it is equal to NeS=N(1+m∕hs), where N is the local population size, m the migration rate, and h and s the dominance and selection coefficients of deleterious mutation. Our results have implications for the estimation and interpretation of inbreeding depression in subdivided populations, especially regarding conservation issues. We also discuss the possible effects of migration and subdivision on the evolution of mating systems.

Fixation probability and time in subdivided populations

New alleles arising in a population by mutation ultimately are either fixed or lost. Either is possible, for both beneficial and deleterious alleles, because of stochastic changes in allele frequency due to genetic drift. Spatially structured populations differ from unstructured populations in the probability of fixation and the time that this fixation takes. Previous results have generally made many assumptions: that all demes contribute to the next generation in exact proportion to their current sizes, that new mutations are beneficial, and that new alleles have additive effects. In this article these assumptions are relaxed, allowing for an arbitrary distribution among demes of reproductive success, both beneficial and deleterious effects, and arbitrary dominance. The effects of population structure can be expressed with two summary statistics: the effective population size and a variant of Wright's F(ST). In general, the probability of fixation is strongly affected by population structure, as is the expected time to fixation or loss. Population structure changes the effective size of the species, often strongly downward; smaller effective size increases the probability of fixing deleterious alleles and decreases the probability of fixing beneficial alleles. On the other hand, population structure causes an increase in the homozygosity of alleles, which increases the probability of fixing beneficial alleles but somewhat decreases the probability of fixing deleterious alleles. The probability of fixing new beneficial alleles can be simply described by 2hs(1 - F(ST))N(e)/N(tot), where hs is the change in fitness of heterozygotes relative to the ancestral homozygote, F(ST) is a weighted version of Wright's measure of population subdivision, and N(e) and N(tot) are the effective and census sizes, respectively. These results are verified by simulation for a broad range of population structures, including the island model, the stepping-stone model, and a model with extinction and recolonization.

Genetic and demographic dynamics of small populations of Silene latifolia

Small local populations of Silene alba, a short-lived herbaceous plant, were sampled in 1994 and again in 1999. Sampling included estimates of population size and genetic diversity, as measured at six polymorphic allozyme loci. When averaged across populations, there was very little change between samples (about three generations) in population size, measures of within-population genetic diversity such as number of alleles or expected heterozygosity, or in the apportionment of genetic diversity within and among populations as measured by F(st). However, individual populations changed considerably, both in terms of numbers of individuals and genetic composition. Some populations doubled in size between samples, while others shrank by more than 75%. Similarly, expected heterozygosity and allele number increased by more than two-fold in individual populations and decreased by more than three-fold in others. When population-specific change in number and change in measures of genetic diversity were considered together, significant positive correlations were found between the demographic and genetic variables. It is speculated that some populations were released from the demographic consequences of inbreeding depression by gene flow.

Rescue of a severely bottlenecked wolf (Canis lupus) population by a single immigrant

The fragmentation of populations is an increasingly important problem in the conservation of endangered species. Under these conditions, rare migration events may have important effects for the rescue of small and inbred populations. However, the relevance of such migration events to genetically depauperate natural populations is not supported by empirical data. We show here that the genetic diversity of the severely bottlenecked and geographically isolated Scandinavian population of grey wolves (Canis lupus), founded by only two individuals, was recovered by the arrival of a single immigrant. Before the arrival of this immigrant, for several generations the population comprised only a single breeding pack, necessarily involving matings between close relatives and resulting in a subsequent decline in individual heterozygosity. With the arrival of just a single immigrant, there is evidence of increased heterozygosity, significant outbreeding (inbreeding avoidance), a rapid spread of new alleles and exponential population growth. Our results imply that even rare interpopulation migration can lead to the rescue and recovery of isolated and endangered natural populations.

Genetic effective size is three orders of magnitude smaller than adult census size in an abundant, Estuarine-dependent marine fish (Sciaenops ocellatus)

Using eight microsatellite loci and a variety of analytical methods, we estimated genetic effective size (N(e)) of an abundant and long-lived marine fish species, the red drum (Sciaenops ocellatus), in the northern Gulf of Mexico (Gulf). The ratio N(e)/N, where short-term variance N(e) was estimated via the temporal method from shifts in allele-frequency data over four cohorts and where N reflected a current estimate of adult census size in the northern Gulf, was approximately 0.001. In an idealized population, this ratio should approximate unity. The extraordinarily low value of N(e)/N appears to arise from high variance in individual reproductive success and perhaps more importantly from variance in productivity of critical spawning and nursery habitats located in spatially discrete bays and estuaries throughout the northern Gulf. An estimate of N(e) based on a coalescent approach, which measures long-term, inbreeding effective size, was four orders of magnitude lower than the estimate of current census size, suggesting that factors presently driving N(e)/N to low values among red drum in the northern Gulf may have operated similarly in the past. Models that predict N(e)/N exclusively from demographic and life-history features will seriously overestimate N(e) if variance in reproductive success and variance in productivity among spatially discrete demes is underestimated. Our results indicate that these variances, especially variance in productivity among demes, must be large for red drum. Moreover, our study indicates that vertebrate populations with enormous adult census numbers may still be at risk relative to decline and extinction from genetic factors.

Genome-wide deleterious mutation favors dispersal and species integrity

Here I develop the idea that ubiquitous harmful genome-wide mutation with local differentiation favors dispersal, even though migration reduces average fitness. Historical contingency of the mutational process means that demes (sub-populations) differentiate from one another. Deleterious or lethal partially recessive mutations carried by migrants then do not encounter similar mutations in the recipient deme. Migrant offspring have higher fitness than offspring of residents, because migrant offspring are heterozygous rather than homozygous for harmful mutations. The advantage is inversely related to local inbreeding depression. Genome-wide deleterious mutation favors the evolution of dispersal, which in turn enhances the genetic integrity of the species.

Genetic effective size of a wild primate population: influence of current and historical demography

A comprehensive assessment of the determinants of effective population size (N(e)) requires estimates of variance in lifetime reproductive success and past changes in census numbers. For natural populations, such information can be best obtained by combining longitudinal data on individual life histories and genetic marker-based inferences of demographic history. Independent estimates of the variance effective size (N(ev), obtained from life-history data) and the inbreeding effective size (N((eI), obtained from genetic data) provide a means of disentangling the effects of current and historical demography. The purpose of this study was to assess the demographic determinants of N(e) in one of the most intensively studied natural populations of a vertebrate species: the population of savannah baboons (Papio cynocephalus) in the Amboseli Basin, southern Kenya. We tested the hypotheses that N(eV) < N < N(eI) (where N = population census number) due to a recent demographic bottleneck. N(eV) was estimated using a stochastic demographic model based on detailed life-history data spanning a 28-year period. Using empirical estimates of age-specific rates of survival and fertility for both sexes, individual-based simulations were used to estimate the variance in lifetime reproductive success. The resultant values translated into an N(eV)/N estimate of 0.329 (SD = 0.116, 95% CI = 0.172-0.537). Historical N(eI), was estimated from 14-locus microsatellite genotypes using a coalescent-based simulation model. Estimates of N(eI) were 2.2 to 7.2 times higher than the contemporary census number of the Amboseli baboon population. In addition to the effects of immigration, the disparity between historical N(eI) and contemporary N is likely attributable to the time lag between the recent drop in census numbers and the rate of increase in the average probability of allelic identity-by-descent. Thus, observed levels of genetic diversity may primarily reflect the population's prebottleneck history rather than its current demography.

The estimation of population differentiation with microsatellite markers

Microsatellite markers are routinely used to investigate the genetic structuring of natural populations. The knowledge of how genetic variation is partitioned among populations may have important implications not only in evolutionary biology and ecology, but also in conservation biology. Hence, reliable estimates of population differentiation are crucial to understand the connectivity among populations and represent important tools to develop conservation strategies. The estimation of differentiation is c from Wright's FST and/or Slatkin's RST, an FST -analogue assuming a stepwise mutation model. Both these statistics have their drawbacks. Furthermore, there is no clear consensus over their relative accuracy. In this review, we first discuss the consequences of different temporal and spatial sampling strategies on differentiation estimation. Then, we move to statistical problems directly associated with the estimation of population structuring itself, with particular emphasis on the effects of high mutation rates and mutation patterns of microsatellite loci. Finally, we discuss the biological interpretation of population structuring estimates.