Does deforestation promote or inhibit malaria transmission in the Amazon? A systematic literature review and critical appraisal of current evidence

Abundance of impacted forest patches less than 5 km2 is a key driver of the incidence of malaria in Amazonian Brazil

The precise role that deforestation for agricultural settlements and commercial forest products plays in promoting or inhibiting malaria incidence in Amazonian Brazil is controversial. Using publically available databases, we analyzed temporal malaria incidence (2009–2015) in municipalities of nine Amazonian states in relation to ecologically defined variables: (i) deforestation (rate of forest clearing over time); (ii) degraded forest (degree of human disturbance and openness of forest canopy for logging) and (iii) impacted forest (sum of deforested and degraded forest patches). We found that areas affected by one kilometer square of deforestation produced 27 new malaria cases (r² = 0.78; F1,10 = 35.81; P < 0.001). Unexpectedly, we found both a highly significant positive correlation between number of impacted forest patches less than 5 km² and malaria cases, and that these patch sizes accounted for greater than ~95% of all patches in the study area. There was a significantly negative correlation between extraction forestry economic indices and malaria cases. Our results emphasize not only that deforestation promotes malaria incidence, but also that it directly or indirectly results in a low Human Development Index, and favors environmental conditions that promote malaria vector proliferation.

An analysis of the influence of the local effects of climatic and hydrological factors affecting new malaria cases in riverine areas along the Rio Negro and surrounding Puraquequara Lake, Amazonas, Brazil

A study was conducted at three sampling regions along the Rio Negro and surrounding Puraquequara Lake, Amazonas, Brazil. The aim was to determine the influence of the local effects of climatic and hydrological variables on new malaria cases. Data was gathered on the river level, precipitation, air temperature, and the number of new cases of autochthonous malaria between January 2003 and December 2013. Monthly averages, time series decompositions, cross-correlations, and multiple regressions revealed different relationships at each location. The sampling region in the upper Rio Negro indicated no statistically significant results. However, monthly averages suggest that precipitation and air temperature correlate positively with the occurrence of new cases of malaria. In the mid Rio Negro and Puraquequara Lake, the river level positively correlated, and temperature negatively correlated with new transmissions, while precipitation correlated negatively in the mid Rio Negro and positively on the lake. Overall, the river level is a key variable affecting the formation of breeding sites, while precipitation may either develop or damage them. A negative temperature correlation is associated with the occurrence of new annual post-peak cases of malaria, when the monthly average exceeds 28.5 °C. This suggests that several factors contribute to the occurrence of new malaria cases as higher temperatures are reached at the same time as precipitation and the river levels are lowest. Differences between signals and correlation lags indicate that local characteristics have an impact on how different variables influence the disease vector's life cycle, pathogens, and consequently, new cases of malaria.

Conservation of biodiversity as a strategy for improving human health and well-being

The Earth's ecosystems have been altered by anthropogenic processes, including land use, harvesting populations, species introductions and climate change. These anthropogenic processes greatly alter plant and animal communities, thereby changing transmission of the zoonotic pathogens they carry. Biodiversity conservation may be a potential win-win strategy for maintaining ecosystem health and protecting public health, yet the causal evidence to support this strategy is limited. Evaluating conservation as a viable public health intervention requires answering four questions: (i) Is there a general and causal relationship between biodiversity and pathogen transmission, and if so, which direction is it in? (ii) Does increased pathogen diversity with increased host biodiversity result in an increase in total disease burden? (iii) Do the net benefits of biodiversity conservation to human well-being outweigh the benefits that biodiversity-degrading activities, such as agriculture and resource utilization, provide? (iv) Are biodiversity conservation interventions cost-effective when compared to other options employed in standard public health approaches? Here, we summarize current knowledge on biodiversity-zoonotic disease relationships and outline a research plan to address the gaps in our understanding for each of these four questions. Developing practical and self-sustaining biodiversity conservation interventions will require significant investment in disease ecology research to determine when and where they will be effective.This article is part of the themed issue 'Conservation, biodiversity and infectious disease: scientific evidence and policy implications'.

Interacting effects of land use and climate on rodent-borne pathogens in central Kenya

Understanding the effects of anthropogenic disturbance on zoonotic disease risk is both a critical conservation objective and a public health priority. Here, we evaluate the effects of multiple forms of anthropogenic disturbance across a precipitation gradient on the abundance of pathogen-infected small mammal hosts in a multi-host, multi-pathogen system in central Kenya. Our results suggest that conversion to cropland and wildlife loss alone drive systematic increases in rodent-borne pathogen prevalence, but that pastoral conversion has no such systematic effects. The effects are most likely explained both by changes in total small mammal abundance, and by changes in relative abundance of a few high-competence species, although changes in vector assemblages may also be involved. Several pathogens responded to interactions between disturbance type and climatic conditions, suggesting the potential for synergistic effects of anthropogenic disturbance and climate change on the distribution of disease risk. Overall, these results indicate that conservation can be an effective tool for reducing abundance of rodent-borne pathogens in some contexts (e.g. wildlife loss alone); however, given the strong variation in effects across disturbance types, pathogen taxa and environmental conditions, the use of conservation as public health interventions will need to be carefully tailored to specific pathogens and human contexts.

This article is part of the themed issue ‘Conservation, biodiversity and infectious disease: scientific evidence and policy implications’.