The long-range transport of birch (Betula) pollen from Poland and Germany causes significant pre-season concentrations in Denmark

Development of a regional-scale pollen emission and transport modeling framework for investigating the impact of climate change on allergic airway disease

Exposure to bioaerosol allergens such as pollen can cause exacerbations of allergenic airway disease (AAD) in sensitive populations, and thus cause serious public health problems. Assessing these health impacts by linking the airborne pollen levels, concentrations of respirable allergenic material, and human allergenic response under current and future climate conditions is a key step toward developing preventive and adaptive actions. To that end, a regional-scale pollen emission and transport modeling framework was developed that treats allergenic pollens as non-reactive tracers within the WRF/CMAQ air-quality modeling system. The Simulator of the Timing and Magnitude of Pollen Season (STaMPS) model was used to generate a daily pollen pool that can then be emitted into the atmosphere by wind. The STaMPS is driven by species-specific meteorological (temperature and/or precipitation) threshold conditions and is designed to be flexible with respect to its representation of vegetation species and plant functional types (PFTs). The hourly pollen emission flux was parameterized by considering the pollen pool, friction velocity, and wind threshold values. The dry deposition velocity of each species of pollen was estimated based on pollen grain size and density. An evaluation of the pollen modeling framework was conducted for southern California for the period from March to June 2010. This period coincided with observations by the University of Southern California's Children's Health Study (CHS), which included O₃, PM_2.5, and pollen count, as well as measurements of exhaled nitric oxide in study participants. Two nesting domains with horizontal resolutions of 12 km and 4 km were constructed, and six representative allergenic pollen genera were included: birch tree, walnut tree, mulberry tree, olive tree, oak tree, and brome grasses. Under the current parameterization scheme, the modeling framework tends to underestimate walnut and peak oak pollen concentrations, and tends to overestimate grass pollen concentrations. The model shows reasonable agreement with observed birch, olive, and mulberry tree pollen concentrations. Sensitivity studies suggest that the estimation of the pollen pool is a major source of uncertainty for simulated pollen concentrations. Achieving agreement between emission modeling and observed pattern of pollen releases is the key for successful pollen concentration simulations.

A numerical model of birch pollen emission and dispersion in the atmosphere. Model evaluation and sensitivity analysis

An evaluation of performance of the System for Integrated modeLling of Atmospheric coMposition (SILAM) in application to birch pollen dispersion is presented. The system is described in a companion paper whereas the current study evaluates the model sensitivity to details of the pollen emission module parameterisation and to the meteorological input data. The most important parameters are highlighted. The reference year considered for the analysis is 2006. It is shown that the model is capable of predicting about two-thirds of allergenic alerts, with the odds ratio exceeding 12 for the best setup. Several other statistics corroborate with these estimations. Low-pollen concentration days are also predicted correctly in more than two-thirds of cases. The model experiences certain difficulties only with intermediate pollen concentrations. It is demonstrated that the most important input parameter is the near-surface temperature, the bias of which can easily jeopardise the results. The model sensitivity to random fluctuations of temperature is much lower. Other parameters important at various stages of pollen development, release, and dispersion are precipitation and ambient humidity, as well as wind direction.

A numerical model of birch pollen emission and dispersion in the atmosphere. Description of the emission module

A birch pollen emission model is described and its main features are discussed. The development of the model is based on a double-threshold temperature sum model that describes the propagation of the flowering season and naturally links to the thermal time models to predict the onset and duration of flowering. For the flowering season, the emission model considers ambient humidity and precipitation rate, both of which suppress the pollen release, as well as wind speed and turbulence intensity, which promote it. These dependencies are qualitatively evaluated using the aerobiological observations. Reflecting the probabilistic character of the flowering of an individual tree in a population, the model introduces relaxation functions at the start and end of the season. The physical basis of the suggested birch pollen emission model is compared with another comprehensive emission module reported in literature. The emission model has been implemented in the SILAM dispersion modelling system, the results of which are evaluated in a companion paper.

A method to derive vegetation distribution maps for pollen dispersion models using birch as an example

Detailed knowledge of the spatial distribution of sources is a crucial prerequisite for the application of pollen dispersion models such as, for example, COSMO-ART (COnsortium for Small-scale MOdeling-Aerosols and Reactive Trace gases). However, this input is not available for the allergy-relevant species such as hazel, alder, birch, grass or ragweed. Hence, plant distribution datasets need to be derived from suitable sources. We present an approach to produce such a dataset from existing sources using birch as an example. The basic idea is to construct a birch dataset using a region with good data coverage for calibration and then to extrapolate this relationship to a larger area by using land use classes. We use the Swiss forest inventory (1 km resolution) in combination with a 74-category land use dataset that covers the non-forested areas of Switzerland as well (resolution 100 m). Then we assign birch density categories of 0%, 0.1%, 0.5% and 2.5% to each of the 74 land use categories. The combination of this derived dataset with the birch distribution from the forest inventory yields a fairly accurate birch distribution encompassing entire Switzerland. The land use categories of the Global Land Cover 2000 (GLC2000; Global Land Cover 2000 database, 2003, European Commission, Joint Research Centre; resolution 1 km) are then calibrated with the Swiss dataset in order to derive a Europe-wide birch distribution dataset and aggregated onto the 7 km COSMO-ART grid. This procedure thus assumes that a certain GLC2000 land use category has the same birch density wherever it may occur in Europe. In order to reduce the strict application of this crucial assumption, the birch density distribution as obtained from the previous steps is weighted using the mean Seasonal Pollen Index (SPI; yearly sums of daily pollen concentrations). For future improvement, region-specific birch densities for the GLC2000 categories could be integrated into the mapping procedure.

The occurrence of Ambrosia pollen in Rzeszów, Kraków and Poznań, Poland: investigation of trends and possible transport of Ambrosia pollen from Ukraine

Previous studies have shown that ragweed pollen arrives in Poland from sources in the south, in Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Austria. It is likely that ragweed pollen also arrives from sources in the southeast (e.g. Ukraine). This hypothesis was investigated using 13 years of pollen data and back-trajectory analysis. Ambrosia pollen data were collected at three sites in Poland, Rzeszów, Kraków and Poznań. The amount of ragweed pollen recorded at Rzeszów was significantly higher than in Poznań and Kraków. This can be related to either a higher abundance of local populations of Ambrosia in south-east Poland or the proximity of Rzeszów to foreign sources of ragweed pollen. The combined results of pollen measurements and air mass trajectory calculations identified plumes of Ambrosia pollen that were recorded at Rzeszów, Kraków and Poznań on 4 and 5 September 1999 and 3 September 2002. These plumes arrived at the pollen-monitoring sites from an easterly direction, indicating sources of Ambrosia pollen in eastern Poland or Ukraine. This identifies Ukraine as a possible new source of ragweed pollen for Poland and therefore an important source area of Ambrosia pollen on the European Continent.

A mechanistic modeling system for estimating large scale emissions and transport of pollen and co-allergens

Allergic airway diseases represent a complex health problem which can be exacerbated by the synergistic action of pollen particles and air pollutants such as ozone. Understanding human exposures to aeroallergens requires accurate estimates of the spatial distribution of airborne pollen levels as well as of various air pollutants at different times. However, currently there are no established methods for estimating allergenic pollen emissions and concentrations over large geographic areas such as the United States. A mechanistic modeling system for describing pollen emissions and transport over extensive domains has been developed by adapting components of existing regional scale air quality models and vegetation databases. First, components of the Biogenic Emissions Inventory System (BEIS) were adapted to predict pollen emission patterns. Subsequently, the transport module of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system was modified to incorporate description of pollen transport. The combined model, CMAQ-pollen, allows for simultaneous prediction of multiple air pollutants and pollen levels in a single model simulation, and uses consistent assumptions related to the transport of multiple chemicals and pollen species. Application case studies for evaluating the combined modeling system included the simulation of birch and ragweed pollen levels for the year 2002, during their corresponding peak pollination periods (April for birch and September for ragweed). The model simulations were driven by previously evaluated meteorological model outputs and emissions inventories for the eastern United States for the simulation period. A semi-quantitative evaluation of CMAQ-pollen was performed using tree and ragweed pollen counts in Newark, NJ for the same time periods. The peak birch pollen concentrations were predicted to occur within two days of the peak measurements, while the temporal patterns closely followed the measured profiles of overall tree pollen. For the case of ragweed pollen, the model was able to capture the patterns observed during September 2002, but did not predict an early peak; this can be associated with a wider species pollination window and inadequate spatial information in current land cover databases. An additional sensitivity simulation was performed to comparatively evaluate the dispersion patterns predicted by CMAQ-pollen with those predicted by the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model, which is used extensively in aerobiological studies. The CMAQ estimated concentration plumes matched the equivalent pollen scenario modeled with HYSPLIT. The novel pollen modeling approach presented here allows simultaneous estimation of multiple airborne allergens and other air pollutants, and is being developed as a central component of an integrated population exposure modeling system, the Modeling Environment for Total Risk studies (MENTOR) for multiple, co-occurring contaminants that include aeroallergens and irritants.

Source areas and long-range transport of pollen from continental land to Tenerife (Canary Islands)

The Canary Islands, due to their geographical position, constitute an adequate site for the study of long-range pollen transport from the surrounding land masses. In this study, we analyzed airborne pollen counts at two sites: Santa Cruz de Tenerife (SCO), at sea level corresponding to the marine boundary layer (MBL), and Izaña at 2,367 m.a.s.l. corresponding to the free troposphere (FT), for the years 2006 and 2007. We used three approaches to describe pollen transport: (1) a classification of provenances with an ANOVA test to describe pollen count differences between sectors; (2) a study of special events of high pollen concentrations, taking into consideration the corresponding meteorological synoptic pattern responsible for transport and back trajectories; and (3) a source-receptor model applied to a selection of the pollen taxa to show pollen source areas. Our results indicate several extra-regional pollen transport episodes to Tenerife. The main provenances were: (1) the Mediterranean region, especially the southern Iberian Peninsula and Morocco, through the trade winds in the MBL. These episodes were characterized by the presence of pollen from trees (Casuarina, Olea, Quercus perennial and deciduous types) mixed with pollen from herbs (Artemisia, Chenopodiaceae/Amaranthaceae and Poaceae wild type). (2) The Saharan sector, through transport at the MBL level carrying pollen principally from herbs (Chenopodiaceae-Amaranthaceae, Cyperaceae and Poaceae wild type) and, in one case, Casuarina pollen, uplifted to the free troposphere. And (3) the Sahel, characterized by low pollen concentrations of Arecaceae, Chenopodiaceae-Amaranthaceae, Cyperaceae and Poaceae wild type in sporadic episodes. This research shows that sporadic events of long-range pollen transport need to be taken into consideration in Tenerife as possible responsible agents in respiratory allergy episodes. In particular, it is estimated that 89-97% of annual counts of the highly allergenous Olea originates from extra-regional sources in southern Iberia and northern Africa.

Phenological records as a complement to aerobiological data

Phenological studies in combination with aerobiological studies enable one to observe the relationship between the release of pollen and its presence in the atmosphere. To obtain a suitable comparison between the daily variation of airborne pollen concentrations and flowering, it is necessary for the level of accuracy of both sets of data to be as similar as possible. To analyse the correlation between locally observed flowering data and pollen counts in pollen traps in order to set pollen information forecasts, pollen was sampled using a Burkard volumetric pollen trap working continuously from May 1993. For the phenological study we selected the main pollen sources of the six pollen types most abundant in our area: Cupressaceae, Platanus, Quercus, Plantago, Olea, and Poaceae with a total of 35 species. We selected seven sites to register flowering or pollination, two with semi-natural vegetation, the rest being urban sites. The sites were visited weekly from March to June in 2007, and from January to June in 2008 and 2009. Pollen shedding was checked at each visit, and recorded as the percentage of flowers or microsporangia in that state. There was an association between flowering phenology and airborne pollen records for some of the pollen types (Platanus, Quercus, Olea and Plantago). Nevertheless, for the other types (Cupressaceae and Poaceae) the flowering and airborne pollen peaks did not coincide, with up to 1 week difference in phase. Some arguments are put forward in explanation of this phenomenon. Phenological studies have shown that airborne pollen results from both local and distant sources, although the pollen peaks usually appear when local sources are shedding the greatest amounts of pollen. Resuspension phenomena are probably more important than long-distance transport in explaining the presence of airborne pollen outside the flowering period. This information could be used to improve pollen forecasts.

Projections of the effects of climate change on allergic asthma: the contribution of aerobiology

Climate change is unequivocal and represents a possible threat for patients affected by allergic conditions. It has already had an impact on living organisms, including plants and fungi with current scenarios projecting further effects by the end of the century. Over the last three decades, studies have shown changes in production, dispersion and allergen content of pollen and spores, which may be region- and species-specific. In addition, these changes may have been influenced by urban air pollutants interacting directly with pollen. Data suggest an increasing effect of aeroallergens on allergic patients over this period, which may also imply a greater likelihood of the development of an allergic respiratory disease in sensitized subjects and exacerbation of symptomatic patients. There are a number of limitations that make predictions uncertain, and further and specifically designed studies are needed to clarify current effects and future scenarios. We recommend: More stress on pollen/spore exposure in the diagnosis and treatment guidelines of respiratory and allergic diseases; collection of aerobiological data in a structured way at the European level; creation, promotion and support of multidisciplinary research teams in this area; lobbying the European Union and other funders to finance this research.

Aeroallergens, allergic disease, and climate change: impacts and adaptation

Recent research has shown that there are many effects of climate change on aeroallergens and thus allergic diseases in humans. Increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration acts as a fertilizer for plant growth. The fertilizing effects of carbon dioxide, as well as increased temperatures from climate change, increase pollen production and the allergen content of pollen grains. In addition, higher temperatures are changing the timing and duration of the pollen season. As regional climates change, plants can move into new areas and changes in atmospheric circulation can blow pollen- and spore-containing dust to new areas, thus introducing people to allergens to which they have not been exposed previously. Climate change also influences the concentrations of airborne pollutants, which alone, and in conjunction with aeroallergens, can exacerbate asthma or other respiratory illnesses. The few epidemiological analyses of meteorological factors, aeroallergens, and allergic diseases demonstrate the pathways through which climate can exert its influence on aeroallergens and allergic diseases. In addition to the need for more research, there is the imperative to take preventive and adaptive actions to address the onset and exacerbation of allergic diseases associated with climate variability and change.

The Pannonian plain as a source of Ambrosia pollen in the Balkans

This study aims to find likely sources of Ambrosia pollen recorded during 2007 at five pollen-monitoring sites in central Europe: Novi Sad, Ruma, Negotin and Nis (Serbia) and Skopje (Macedonia). Ambrosia plants start flowering early in the morning and so Ambrosia pollen grains recorded during the day are likely to be from a local source. Conversely, Ambrosia pollen grains recorded at night or very early in the morning may have arrived via long-range transport. Ambrosia pollen counts were analysed in an attempt to find possible sources of the pollen and to identify Ambrosia pollen episodes suitable for further investigation using back-trajectory analysis. Diurnal variations and the magnitude of Ambrosia pollen counts during the 2007 Ambrosia pollen season showed that Novi Sad and Ruma (Pannonian Plain) and to a lesser degree Negotin (Balkans) were located near to sources of Ambrosia pollen. Mean bi-hourly Ambrosia pollen concentrations peaked during the middle of the day, and concentrations at these sites were notably higher than at Nis and Skopje. Three episodes were selected for further analysis using back-trajectory analysis. Back-trajectories showed that air masses brought Ambrosia pollen from the north to Nis and, on one occasion, to Skopje (Balkans) during the night and early morning after passing to the east of Novi Sad and Ruma during the previous day. The results of this study identified the southern part of the Pannonian Plain around Novi Sad and Ruma as being a potential source region for Ambrosia pollen recorded at Nis and Skopje in the Balkans.

Are the birch trees in Southern England a source of Betula pollen for North London?

Birch pollen is highly allergenic. Knowledge of daily variations, atmospheric transport and source areas of birch pollen is important for exposure studies and for warnings to the public, especially for large cities such as London. Our results show that broad-leaved forests with high birch tree densities are located to the south and west of London. Bi-hourly Betula pollen concentrations for all the days included in the study, and for all available days with high birch pollen counts (daily average birch pollen counts>80 grains/m3), show that, on average, there is a peak between 1400 hours and 1600 hours. Back-trajectory analysis showed that, on days with high birch pollen counts (n=60), 80% of air masses arriving at the time of peak diurnal birch pollen count approached North London from the south in a 180 degree arc from due east to due west. Detailed investigations of three Betula pollen episodes, with distinctly different diurnal patterns compared to the mean daily cycle, were used to illustrate how night-time maxima (2200-0400 hours) in Betula pollen counts could be the result of transport from distant sources or long transport times caused by slow moving air masses. We conclude that the Betula pollen recorded in North London could originate from sources found to the west and south of the city and not just trees within London itself. Possible sources outside the city include Continental Europe and the Betula trees within the broad-leaved forests of Southern England.

Long-range transport of beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) pollen to Catalonia (north-eastern Spain)

Local and long-range transport of beech (Fagus sylvatica) pollen was analysed by using 23-year data (1983-2007) at six stations in Catalonia, Spain, and numerical simulations. Back trajectories and synoptic meteorology indicated a consistent north European provenance during beech pollen peak days. Specifically, the area from northern Italy to central Germany was the most probable source, as indicated by a source-receptor model based on back trajectories. For the event with the highest pollen levels (17 May 2004), back trajectories indicated a source in the Vosges (NE France) and the Schwarzwald (SW Germany) regions. By applying a mesoscale model (MM5) to this event, pollen transport could be further refined, allowing its entrance to Catalonia through the lower easternmost pass of the Pyrenees (the Alberes pass, 500 m a.s.l.) to be described. Hourly counts of Fagus pollen allowed the timing of pollen arrival during this episode to be matched with the model results regarding the above-mentioned passage. This study may help to interpret some results of modern beech genetic diversity and contribute to the understanding of paleopalynological records by taking long-range transport into consideration.

Copenhagen--a significant source of birch (Betula) pollen?

Current aerobiological research applies the hypothesis that the main source of atmospheric birch (Betula) pollen is forest trees. Our results indicate that the measured levels in Copenhagen are not only due to birch trees in Danish forests but that the urban areas also seem to be a significant source of birch pollen. A number of episodes in 2003 with enhanced pollen levels in Copenhagen seem to be associated with parks and gardens inside and just outside the city. Our results also indicate one long-range transport episode from remote sources in Poland and Germany. Finally, our results show that the pollen levels vary considerably over the day and geographically between Copenhagen and the city of Roskilde, 40 km away. We suggest, that these differences in time and space in the pollen levels are mapped using an integrated monitoring strategy.