Impact of anthropogenic emission control in reducing future PM2.5 concentrations and the related oxidative potential across different regions of China

Affected by both future anthropogenic emissions and climate change, future prediction of PM2.5 and its Oxidative Potential (OP) distribution is a significant challenge, especially in developing countries like China. To overcome this challenge, we estimated historical and future PM2.5 concentrations and associated OP using the Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM) system with meteorological input from WRF weather forecast model. Considering different future socio-economic pathways and emission scenario assumptions, we quantified how the contribution from various anthropogenic emission sectors will change under these scenarios. Results show that compared to the CESM_SSP2-4.5_CLE scenario (based on moderate radiative forcing and Current Legislation Emission), the CESM_SSP1-2.6_MFR scenario (based on sustainability development and Maximum Feasible Reductions) is projected to yield greater environmental and health benefits in the future. Under the CESM_SSP1-2.6_MFR scenario, annual average PM2.5 concentrations (OP) are expected to decrease to 30 (0.8 nmolmin-1m-3) in almost all regions by 2030, which will be 65 % (67 %) lower than that in 2010. From a long-term perspective, it is anticipated that OP in the Fen-Wei Plain region will experience the maximum reduction (82.6 %) from 2010 to 2049. Largely benefiting from the effective control of PM2.5 in the region, it has decreased by 82.1 %. Crucially, once emission reduction measures reach a certain level (in 2040), further reductions become less significant. This study also emphasized the significant role of secondary aerosol formation and biomass-burning sources in influencing OP during both historical and future periods. In different scenarios, the reduction range of OP from 2010 to 2049 is estimated to be between 71 % and 85 % by controlling precursor emissions involved in secondary aerosol formation and emissions from biomass burning. Results indicate that strengthening the control of anthropogenic emissions in various regions are key to achieving air quality targets and safeguarding human health in the future.

Monthly average air pollution models using geographically weighted regression in Europe from 2000 to 2019

Detailed spatial models of monthly air pollution levels at a very fine spatial resolution (25 m) can help facilitate studies to explore critical time-windows of exposure at intermediate term. Seasonal changes in air pollution may affect both levels and spatial patterns of air pollution across Europe. We built Europe-wide land-use regression (LUR) models to estimate monthly concentrations of regulated air pollutants (NO2, O3, PM10 and PM2.5) between 2000 and 2019. Monthly average concentrations were collected from routine monitoring stations. Including both monthly-fixed and -varying spatial variables, we used supervised linear regression (SLR) to select predictors and geographically weighted regression (GWR) to estimate spatially-varying regression coefficients for each month. Model performance was assessed with 5-fold cross-validation (CV). We also compared the performance of the monthly LUR models with monthly adjusted concentrations. Results revealed significant monthly variations in both estimates and model structure, particularly for O3, PM10, and PM2.5. The 5-fold CV showed generally good performance of the monthly GWR models across months and years (5-fold CV R2: 0.31-0.66 for NO2, 0.4-0.79 for O3, 0.4-0.78 for PM10, 0.46-0.87 for PM2.5). Monthly GWR models slightly outperformed monthly-adjusted models. Correlations between monthly GWR model were generally moderate to high (Pearson correlation >0.6). In conclusion, we are the first to develop robust monthly LUR models for air pollution in Europe. These monthly LUR models, at a 25 m spatial resolution, enhance epidemiologists to better characterize Europe-wide intermediate-term health effects related to air pollution, facilitating investigations into critical exposure time windows in birth cohort studies.

Concomitant exposure to air pollution, green space and noise, and risk of myocardial infarction: a cohort study from Denmark

AIMS

The three correlated environmental exposures (air pollution, road traffic noise, and green space) have all been associated with the risk of myocardial infarction (MI). The present study aimed to analyse their independent and cumulative association with MI.

METHODS AND RESULTS

In a cohort of all Danes aged 50 or older in the period 2005-17, 5-year time-weighted average exposure to fine particles (PM2.5), ultrafine particles, elemental carbon, nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and road traffic noise at the most and least exposed façades of residence was estimated. Green space around residences was estimated from land use maps. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence interval (CI), and cumulative risk indices (CRIs) were calculated. All expressed per interquartile range. Models were adjusted for both individual and neighbourhood-level socio-demographic covariates. The cohort included 1 964 702 persons. During follow-up, 71 285 developed MI. In single-exposure models, all exposures were associated with an increased risk of MI. In multi-pollutant analyses, an independent association with risk of MI was observed for PM2.5 (HR: 1.026; 95% CI: 1.002-1.050), noise at most exposed façade (HR: 1.024; 95% CI: 1.012-1.035), and lack of green space within 150 m of residence (HR: 1.018; 95% CI: 1.010-1.027). All three factors contributed significantly to the CRI (1.089; 95% CI: 1.076-1.101).

CONCLUSION

In a nationwide cohort study, air pollution, noise, and lack of green space were all independently associated with an increased risk of MI. The air pollutant PM2.5 was closest associated with MI risk.

Exposure to air pollution and risk of respiratory tract infections in the adult Danish population-a nationwide study

OBJECTIVES

The association between air pollution and risk of respiratory tract infection (RTI) in adults needs to be clarified in settings with low to moderate levels of air pollution. We investigated this in the Danish population between 2004 and 2016.

METHODS

We included 3 653 490 persons aged 18-64 years in a nested case-control study. Exposure was defined as the average daily concentration at the individual's residential address of CO, NOX, NO2, O3, SO2, NH3, PPM2.5, black carbon, organic carbon, mineral dust, sea salt, secondary inorganic aerosols, SO42-, NO3-, NH4+, secondary organic aerosols, PM2.5, and PM10 during a 3-month exposure window. RTIs were defined by hospitalization for RTIs. Incidence rate ratios (IRRs) and 95% CIs were estimated comparing highest with lowest decile of exposure using conditional logistic regression models.

RESULTS

In total, 188 439 incident cases of RTI were identified. Exposure to most air pollutants was positively associated with risk of RTI. For example, NO2 showed an IRR of 1.52 (CI: 1.48-1.55), and PM2.5 showed an IRR of 1.45 (CI: 1.40-1.50). In contrast, exposure to sea salt, PM10, NH3, and O3 was negatively associated with a risk of RTIs.

DISCUSSION

In this nationwide study comprising adults, exposure to air pollution was associated with risk of RTIs and subgroups hereof. Sea salt, PM10, NH3, and O3 may be proxies for rural areas, as the levels of these species in Denmark are higher near the western coastlines and/or in rural areas with fewer combustion sources.

Medium term moderate to low-level air pollution exposure is associated with higher C-reactive protein among healthy Danish blood donors

Air pollution is a significant contributor to the global burden of disease with a plethora of associated health effects such as pulmonary and systemic inflammation. C-reactive protein (CRP) is associated with a wide range of diseases and is associated with several exposures. Studies on the effect of air pollution exposure on CRP levels in low to moderate pollution settings have shown inconsistent results. In this cross-sectional study high sensitivity CRP measurements on 18,463 Danish blood donors were linked to modelled air pollution data for NOx, NO2, O3, CO, SO2, NH3, mineral dust, black carbon, organic carbon, sea salt, secondary inorganic aerosols and its components, primary PM2.5, secondary organic aerosols, total PM2.5, and total PM10 at their residential address over the previous month. Associations were analysed using ordered logistic regression with CRP quartile as individuals outcome and air pollution exposure as scaled deciles. Analyses were adjusted for health related and socioeconomic covariates using health questionnaires and Danish register data. Exposure to different air pollution components was generally associated with higher CRP (odds ratio estimates ranging from 1.11 to 1.67), while exposure to a few air pollution components was associated with lower CRP. For example, exposure to NO2 increased the odds of high CRP 1.32-fold (95%CI 1.16-1.49), while exposure to NH3 decreased the odds of high CRP 0.81-fold (95%CI 0.73-0.89). This large study among healthy individuals found air pollution exposure to be associated with increased levels of CRP even in a setting with low to moderate air pollution levels.

Concomitant exposure to air pollution, green space, and noise and risk of stroke: a cohort study from Denmark

Background

Air pollution, road traffic noise, and green space are correlated factors, associated with risk of stroke. We investigated their independent relationship with stroke in multi-exposure analyses and estimated their cumulative stroke burden.

Methods

For all persons, ≥50 years of age and living in Denmark from 2005 to 2017, we established complete address histories and estimated running 5-year mean exposure to fine particles (PM_2.5), ultrafine particles, elemental carbon, nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), and road traffic noise at the most, and least exposed façade. For air pollutants, we estimated total, and non-traffic contributions. Green space around the residence was estimated from land use maps. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence limits (CL) were estimated with Cox proportional hazards models and used to calculate cumulative risk indices (CRI). We adjusted for the individual and sociodemographic covariates available in our dataset (which did not include information about individual life styles and medical conditions).

Findings

The cohort accumulated 18,344,976 years of follow-up and 94,256 cases of stroke. All exposures were associated with risk of stroke in single pollutant models. In multi-pollutant analyses, only PM_2.5 (HR: 1.058, 95% CI: 1.040-1.075) and noise at most exposed façade (HR: 1.033, 95% CI: 1.024-1.042) were independently associated with a higher risk of stroke. Both noise and air pollution contributed substantially to the CRI (1.103, 95% CI: 1.092-1.114) in the model with noise, green space, and total PM_2.5 concentrations.

Interpretation

Environmental exposure to air pollution and noise were both independently associated with risk of stroke.

Funding

Health Effects Institute (HEI) (Assistance Award No. R-82811201).

Perspectives on environment and health research in Denmark

AIMS

We provide an overview of nationwide environmental data available for Denmark and its linkage potentials to individual-level records with the aim of promoting research on the potential impact of the local surrounding environment on human health.

BACKGROUND

Researchers in Denmark have unique opportunities for conducting large population-based studies treating the entire Danish population as one big, open and dynamic cohort based on nationally complete population and health registries. So far, most research in this area has utilised individual- and family-level information to study the clustering of disease in families, comorbidities, risk of, and prognosis after, disease onset, and social gradients in disease risk. Linking environmental data in time and space to individuals enables novel possibilities for studying the health effects of the social, built and physical environment.

METHODS

We describe the possible linkage between individuals and their local surrounding environment to establish the exposome - that is, the total environmental exposure of an individual over their life course.

CONCLUSIONS

The currently available nationwide longitudinal environmental data in Denmark constitutes a valuable and globally rare asset that can help explore the impact of the exposome on human health.

Source-Specific Air Pollution Including Ultrafine Particles and Risk of Myocardial Infarction: A Nationwide Cohort Study from Denmark

BACKGROUND

Air pollution is negatively associated with cardiovascular health. Impediments to efficient regulation include lack of knowledge about which sources of air pollution contributes most to health burden and few studies on effects of the potentially more potent ultrafine particles (UFP).

OBJECTIVE

The authors aimed to investigate myocardial infarction (MI) morbidity and specific types and sources of air pollution.

METHODS

We identified all persons living in Denmark in the period 2005-2017, age >50 y and never diagnosed with MI. We quantified 5-y running time-weighted mean concentrations of air pollution at residencies, both total and apportioned to traffic and nontraffic sources. We evaluated particulate matter (PM) with aerodynamic diameter ≤2.5μm (PM2.5), <0.1μm (UFP), elemental carbon (EC), and nitrogen dioxide (NO2). We used Cox proportional hazards models, with adjustment for time-varying exposures, and personal and area-level demographic and socioeconomic covariates from high-quality administrative registers.

RESULTS

In this nationwide cohort of 1,964,702 persons (with 18 million person-years of follow-up and 71,285 cases of MI), UFP and PM2.5 were associated with increased risk of MI with hazard ratios (HRs) per interquartile range (IQR) of 1.040 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.025, 1.055] and 1.053 (95% CI: 1.035, 1.071), respectively. HRs per IQR of UFP and PM2.5 from nontraffic sources were similar to the total (1.034 and 1.051), whereas HRs for UFP and PM2.5 from traffic sources were smaller (1.011 and 1.011). The HR for EC from traffic sources was 1.013 (95% CI: 1.003, 1.023). NO2 from nontraffic sources was associated with MI (HR=1.048; 95% CI: 1.034, 1.062) but not from traffic sources. In general, nontraffic sources contributed more to total air pollution levels than national traffic sources.

CONCLUSIONS

PM2.5 and UFP from traffic and nontraffic sources were associated with increased risk of MI, with nontraffic sources being the dominant source of exposure and morbidity. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP10556.

Long-term exposure to traffic noise and risk of incident colon cancer: A pooled study of eleven Nordic cohorts

Background Colon cancer incidence is rising globally, and factors pertaining to urbanization have been proposed involved in this development. Traffic noise may increase colon cancer risk by causing sleep disturbance and stress, thereby inducing known colon cancer risk-factors, e.g. obesity, diabetes, physical inactivity, and alcohol consumption, but few studies have examined this. Objectives The objective of this study was to investigate the association between traffic noise and colon cancer (all, proximal, distal) in a pooled population of 11 Nordic cohorts, totaling 155,203 persons. Methods We identified residential address history and estimated road, railway, and aircraft noise, as well as air pollution, for all addresses, using similar exposure models across cohorts. Colon cancer cases were identified through national registries. We analyzed data using Cox Proportional Hazards Models, adjusting main models for harmonized sociodemographic and lifestyle data. Results During follow-up (median 18.8 years), 2757 colon cancer cases developed. We found a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.05 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.99-1.10) per 10-dB higher 5-year mean time-weighted road traffic noise. In sub-type analyses, the association seemed confined to distal colon cancer: HR 1.06 (95% CI: 0.98-1.14). Railway and aircraft noise was not associated with colon cancer, albeit there was some indication in sub-type analyses that railway noise may also be associated with distal colon cancer. In interaction-analyses, the association between road traffic noise and colon cancer was strongest among obese persons and those with high NO₂-exposure. Discussion A prominent study strength is the large population with harmonized data across eleven cohorts, and the complete address-history during follow-up. However, each cohort estimated noise independently, and only at the most exposed façade, which may introduce exposure misclassification. Despite this, the results of this pooled study suggest that traffic noise may be a risk factor for colon cancer, especially of distal origin.

Air pollution and stroke; effect modification by sociodemographic and environmental factors. A cohort study from Denmark

OBJECTIVES

Air pollution increases the risk of stroke, but the literature on identifying susceptible subgroups of populations is scarce and inconsistent. The aim of this study was to investigate if the association between air pollution and risk of stroke differed by sociodemographic factors, financial stress, comorbid conditions, and residential road traffic noise, population density and green space.

METHODS

We assessed long-term exposure to air pollution with ultrafine particles, PM_2.5, elemental carbon and NO₂ for a cohort of 1,971,246 Danes aged 50-85 years. During follow-up from 2005 to 2017, we identified 83,211 incident stroke cases. We used Cox proportional hazards model (relative risk) and Aalen additive hazards models (absolute risk) to estimate associations and confidence intervals (CI) between 5-year running means of air pollution at the residence and risk of stroke in population strata.

RESULTS

All four pollutants were associated with higher risk of stroke. The association between air pollution and stroke was strongest among individuals with comorbidities, with shorter education, lower income and being retired. The results also indicated stronger associations among individuals living in less populated areas, and with low noise levels and more green space around the residence. Estimates of absolute risk seemed better suited to detect such interactions than estimates of relative risk. For example for PM_2.5 the hazard ratio for stroke was 1.28 (95%CI: 1.22-1.34) and 1.26 (95%CI: 1.16-1.37) among those with mandatory and medium/long education respectively. The corresponding rate difference estimates per 100,000 person years were 568 (95%CI: 543-594) and 423(95%CI: 390-456) CONCLUSION: The associations between air pollution and risk of stroke was stronger among individuals of lower socioeconomic status or with pre-existing comorbid conditions. Absolute risk estimates were better suited to identify such effect modification.

Air pollution and myocardial infarction; effect modification by sociodemographic and environmental factors. A cohort study from Denmark

Air pollution is associated with increased risk of myocardial infarction (MI), but it is unresolved to what extent the association is modified by factors such as socioeconomic status, comorbidities, financial stress, residential green space, or road traffic noise. We formed a cohort of all (n = 1,964,702) Danes, aged 50-85 years, with 65,311 cases of MI during the followed-up period 2005-2017. For all participants we established residential five-year running average exposure to particulate matter <2.5  μm (PM_2.5), ultrafine particles (UFP, <0.1  μm), elemental carbon (EC) and nitrogen dioxide (NO₂). We evaluated risk in population strata, using Aalen additive hazards models to estimate absolute risk and Cox proportional hazards models to estimate relative risk of MI with 95% confidence intervals (CI). PM_2.5 and the other pollutant were associated with MI. Lower education and lower income were associated with higher absolute risks of MI from air pollution, whereas no clear effect modification was apparent for relative risk estimates. For example, 5 μg/m³ higher PM_2.5 was associated with HR for MI of 1.16 (95% CI: 1.10-1.22) among those with only mandatory education and 1.13 (95% CI: 1.03-1.24) among those with long education. The corresponding rate differences per 100,000 person years were 243 (95% CI: 216-271) and 358 (95% CI: 338-379), respectively. Higher level of comorbidity was consistently across all four pollutants associated with both higher absolute and relative risk of MI. In conclusion, people with comorbid conditions or of lower SES appeared more vulnerable to long-term exposure to air pollution and more cases of MI may be prevented by focused interventions in these groups.

'Source-specific' air pollution and risk of stroke in Denmark

BACKGROUND

Long-term air pollution is a risk factor for stroke. Which types and sources of air pollution contribute most to stroke in populations is unknown. We investigated whether risk of stroke differed by type and source of air pollution.

METHODS

We selected all persons aged >50 years and living in Denmark in the period 2005-17. We estimated running 5-year mean residential air-pollution concentrations of particulate matter <2.5 µm (PM2.5), ultrafine particles (UFP), elemental carbon (EC) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2). Pollutants were modelled as total air pollution from all emission sources, as well as apportioned into contributions from non-traffic and traffic sources. Hazard ratios (HRs) and CIs were estimated by using Cox proportional hazards models, adjusting for area-level and personal demographic and socio-economic covariates. We identified all primary strokes from hospital and mortality registers.

RESULTS

The cohort numbered 2 million people and 94 256 cases of stroke. Interquartile ranges (IQR) of air pollution were associated with risk of stroke with HRs of 1.077 (95% CI: 1.061-1.094, IQR: 1.85 µg/m3) for PM2.5, 1.039 (1.026-1.052, IQR: 4248 particles/cm3) for UFP, 1.009 (1.001-1.018, IQR: 0.28 µg/m3) for EC and 1.028 (1.017-1.040, IQR: 7.15 µg/m3) for NO2. Traffic sources contributed little to the total exposure. HRs associated with air pollution from traffic were close to the null, whereas non-traffic sources tended to be associated with HRs higher than those for total air pollution, e.g. for non-traffic PM2.5, the HR was 1.091 (1.074-1.108).

CONCLUSIONS

Air pollution, including UFP, was associated with risk of stroke. The risk appeared attributable mainly to air pollution from non-traffic sources.

Exposure to ambient air pollution and lipid levels and blood pressure in an adult, Danish cohort

BACKGROUND

Air pollution is a well-recognized risk factor for cardiovascular disease. However, the mechanistic pathways underlying the association are not completely understood. Hence, further studies are required to shed light on potential mechanisms, through which air pollution may affect the development from subclinical to clinical cardiovascular disease.

OBJECTIVES

To investigate associations between short-term exposure to air pollution and high-density lipoprotein (HDL), non-high density lipoprotein (non-HDL), systolic and diastolic blood pressure.

METHODS

The study was conducted among 32,851 Danes from the Diet, Cancer and Health - Next Generations cohort, who had a blood sample taken and blood pressure measured. We measured HDL and non-HDL in the blood samples. We modelled exposure to fine particulate matter (PM_2.5), ultrafine particles (UFP), elemental carbon (EC) and nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) in time-windows from 24 h up to 90 days before blood sampling. Pollutants were modelled as total air pollution from all sources, and apportioned into contributions from non-traffic and traffic sources. We analyzed data using linear and logistic regression, with adjustment for socio-economic and lifestyle factors.

RESULTS

Air pollution exposure over 24 h to 30 days was generally adversely associated with lipid profile and blood pressure, e.g. for 30-day UFP-exposure, adjusted β-estimates were: -0.025 (-0.043; -0.006) for HDL, 0.086 (0.042; 0.130) for non-HDL, 2.45 (1.70; 3.11) for systolic and 1.56 (1.07; 20.4) for diastolic blood pressure, per 10,000 particles/cm³. The strongest associations were found for the non-traffic components of air pollution, and among those who were overweight/obese.

DISCUSSION

In this large study of air pollution and lipid levels and blood pressure, we found that 24-h to 30-day PM_2.5, UFP, EC and NO₂ concentrations were generally adversely associated with lipid profile and blood pressure, two important cardiovascular risk factors. The study suggests potential pathways, through which air pollution could affect the development of cardiovascular disease.

Effects of Sociodemographic Characteristics, Comorbidity, and Coexposures on the Association between Air Pollution and Type 2 Diabetes: A Nationwide Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Exposure to air pollution has been associated with a higher risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D), but studies investigating whether deprived groups are more susceptible to the harmful effects of air pollution are inconsistent.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to investigate whether the association between air pollution and T2D differed according to sociodemographic characteristics, comorbidity, and coexposures.

METHODS

We estimated residential exposure to PM2.5, ultrafine particles (UFP), elemental carbon, and NO2 for all persons living in Denmark in the period 2005-2017. In total, 1.8 million persons 50-80 y of age were included for main analyses of whom 113,985 developed T2D during follow-up. We conducted additional analyses on 1.3 million persons age 35-50 y. Using Cox proportional hazards model (relative risk) and Aalens additive hazard model (absolute risk), we calculated associations between 5-y time-weighted running means of air pollution and T2D in strata of sociodemographic variables, comorbidity, population density, road traffic noise, and green space proximity.

RESULTS

Air pollution was associated with T2D, especially among people age 50-80 y, with hazard ratios of 1.17 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.13, 1.21] per 5 μg/m3 PM2.5 and 1.16 (95% CI: 1.13, 1.19) per 10,000  UFP/cm3. In the age 50-80 y population, we found higher associations between air pollution and T2D among men in comparison with women, people with lower education vs. individuals with high education, people with medium income vs. those with low or high income, people cohabiting vs. those living alone, and people with comorbidities vs. those without comorbidities. We observed no marked changes according to occupation, population density, road noise, or surrounding greenness. In the age 35-50 y population, similar tendencies were observed, except in relation to sex and occupation, where we observed associations with air pollution only among women and blue-collar workers.

DISCUSSION

We found stronger associations between air pollution and T2D among people with existing comorbidities and weaker associations among people with high socioeconomic status in comparison with those with lower socioeconomic status. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP11347.

Air pollution with NO2, PM2.5, and elemental carbon in relation to risk of breast cancer- a nationwide case-control study from Denmark

Air pollution with particulate matter is an established lung carcinogen. Studies have suggested an association with breast cancer, but the evidence is inconsistent.

METHODS

From nationwide registers, we identified all breast cancer cases (n = 55 745) in Denmark between 2000 and 2014. We matched one control for each case on age and year of birth. We used a multi-scale dispersion model to estimate outdoor concentrations of particulate matter <2.5 μm (PM_2.5), elemental carbon (EC) and nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) as time-weighted average over all addresses up to 20 years prior to diagnosis. We calculated odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) by conditional logistic regression with adjustment for marital status, educational level, occupational status, personal income, region of origin, medication and area-level socio-economic indicators.

RESULTS

A 10 μg/m³ higher PM_2.5 was associated with an OR for breast cancer of 1.21 (95% CI: 1.11-1.33). The corresponding ORs for EC (per 1 μg/m³) and NO₂ (per 10 μg/m³) were 1.03 (95% CI: 1.00-1.07) and 1.03 (95% CI: 1.01-1.06), respectively. In multi-pollutant models, the OR for PM_2.5 changed only little, whereas ORs for EC or NO₂ approached the null. In an analysis of persons below 55 years, PM_2.5 was associated with an OR of 1.32 (95% CI: 1.09-1.60) per 10 μg/m³ increase.

CONCLUSION

We found evidence of an association between the investigated air pollutants and breast cancer, especially PM_2.5. There were indications that the association differed by age at diagnosis. We were not able to include all potential confounders and thus, results should be interpreted with caution.

PM2.5 air pollution components and mortality in Denmark

BACKGROUND

Ambient fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) causes millions of deaths every year worldwide. Identification of the most harmful types of PM_2.5 would facilitate efficient prevention strategies.

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to investigate associations between components of PM_2.5 and mortality in a nation-wide Danish population.

METHODS

Our study base was Danes born 1921-1985 and aged 30-85 years, who were followed up for mortality from 1991 to 2015. We included 678,465 natural cause mortality cases and selected five age, sex and calendar time matched controls to each case from the study base. We retrieved the address history of the study population from Danish registries and assessed five-year average concentrations of eight PM_2.5 components using deterministic Chemistry-Transport Models air pollution models. We estimated mortality rate ratios (MRRs) by conditional logistic regression and adjusted for socio-demographical factors at individual and neighborhood level.

RESULTS

Single pollutant models showed the strongest associations between natural cause mortality and an interquartile increase in sulfate particles (SO₄^--) (MRR: 1.123; 95 % CI: 1.100-1.147 per 1.5 µg/m³) and secondary organic aerosol (SOA) (MRR: 1.054; 95 % CI: 1.048-1.061 per 0.050 µg/m³). Two-pollutant models showed robust associations between SO₄^-- and SOA and natural cause mortality. Elemental carbon and mineral dust showed robust associations with higher respiratory and lung cancer mortality.

CONCLUSION

This nation-wide study found robust associations between natural cause mortality and SO₄^-- particles and SOA, which is in line with the results of previous studies. Elemental carbon and mineral dust showed robust associations with higher respiratory and lung cancer mortality.

Long-Term Exposure to Transportation Noise and Ischemic Heart Disease: A Pooled Analysis of Nine Scandinavian Cohorts

BACKGROUND

Transportation noise may induce cardiovascular disease, but the public health implications are unclear.

OBJECTIVES

The study aimed to assess exposure-response relationships for different transportation noise sources and ischemic heart disease (IHD), including subtypes.

METHODS

Pooled analyses were performed of nine cohorts from Denmark and Sweden, together including 132,801 subjects. Time-weighted long-term exposure to road, railway, and aircraft noise, as well as air pollution, was estimated based on residential histories. Hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated using Cox proportional hazards models following adjustment for lifestyle and socioeconomic risk factors.

RESULTS

A total of 22,459 incident cases of IHD were identified during follow-up from national patient and mortality registers, including 7,682 cases of myocardial infarction. The adjusted HR for IHD was 1.03 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.00, 1.05] per 10 dB Lden for both road and railway noise exposure during 5 y prior to the event. Higher risks were indicated for IHD excluding angina pectoris cases, with HRs of 1.06 (95% CI: 1.03, 1.08) and 1.05 (95% CI: 1.01, 1.08) per 10 dB Lden for road and railway noise, respectively. Corresponding HRs for myocardial infarction were 1.02 (95% CI: 0.99, 1.05) and 1.04 (95% CI: 0.99, 1.08). Increased risks were observed for aircraft noise but without clear exposure-response relations. A threshold at around 55 dB Lden was suggested in the exposure-response relation for road traffic noise and IHD.

DISCUSSION

Exposure to road, railway, and aircraft noise in the prior 5 y was associated with an increased risk of IHD, particularly after exclusion of angina pectoris cases, which are less well identified in the registries. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP10745.

Air pollution, road traffic noise and lack of greenness and risk of type 2 diabetes: A multi-exposure prospective study covering Denmark

OBJECTIVE

Air pollution, road traffic noise and lack of greenness coexist in urban environments and have all been associated with type 2 diabetes. We aimed to investigate how these co-exposures were associated with type 2 diabetes in a multi-exposure perspective.

METHODS

We estimated 5-year residential mean exposure to fine particles (PM_2.5), ultrafine particles (UFP), elemental carbon (EC), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) and road traffic noise at the most (LdenMax) and least (LdenMin) exposed facade for all persons aged > 50 years living in Denmark in 2005 to 2017. For each air pollutant, we estimated total concentrations and traffic contributions. Based on land use maps, we estimated proportion of green and non-green space within 150 and 1000 m of all residences. In total, 1.9 million persons were included and 128,358 developed type 2 diabetes during follow-up. We performed analyses using Cox proportional hazards models, with adjustment for individual and neighborhood-level sociodemographic co-variates.

RESULTS

In single-pollutant models, all air pollutants, noise and lack of green space were associated with higher risk of diabetes. In two-, three- and four-pollutant analyses of the air pollutants, only UFP and NO₂ remained associated with higher diabetes risk in all models. LdenMax, LdenMin and the two proxies of green space remained associated with diabetes in two-pollutant models of, respectively, noise and green space. In a multi-pollutant analysis, we found hazard ratios (95 % confidence intervals) per interquartile range of 1.021 (1.005; 1.038) for UFP, 1.012 (0.996; 1.028) for NO₂, 1.022 (1.012; 1.033) for LdenMin, 1.013 (1.004; 1.022) for LdenMax, and 1.038 (1.031; 1.044) and 1.018 (1.010; 1.025) for lack of green space within, respectively, 150 m and 1000 m, and a cumulative risk index of 1.131 (1.113; 1.149).

CONCLUSIONS

Air pollution, road traffic noise and lack of green space were independently associated with higher risk of type 2 diabetes.

NT-proBNP and stem cell factor plasma concentrations are independently associated with cardiovascular outcomes in end-stage renal disease hemodialysis patients

Aims

End-stage renal disease (ESRD) treated by chronic hemodialysis (HD) is associated with poor cardiovascular (CV) outcomes, with no available evidence-based therapeutics. A multiplexed proteomic approach may identify new pathophysiological pathways associated with CV outcomes, potentially actionable for precision medicine.

Methods and results

The AURORA trial was an international, multicentre, randomized, double-blind trial involving 2776 patients undergoing maintenance HD. Rosuvastatin vs. placebo had no significant effect on the composite primary endpoint of death from CV causes, nonfatal myocardial infarction or nonfatal stroke. We first compared CV risk-matched cases and controls (n = 410) to identify novel biomarkers using a multiplex proximity extension immunoassay (276 proteomic biomarkers assessed with Olink^TM). We replicated our findings in 200 unmatched cases and 200 controls. External validation was conducted from a multicentre real-life Danish cohort [Aarhus-Aalborg (AA), n = 331 patients] in which 92 Olink^TM biomarkers were assessed. In AURORA, only N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP, positive association) and stem cell factor (SCF) (negative association) were found consistently associated with the trial's primary outcome across exploration and replication phases, independently from the baseline characteristics. Stem cell factor displayed a lower added predictive ability compared with NT-ProBNP. In the AA cohort, in multivariable analyses, BNP was found significantly associated with major CV events, while higher SCF was associated with less frequent CV deaths.

Conclusions

Our findings suggest that NT-proBNP and SCF may help identify ESRD patients with respectively high and low CV risk, beyond classical clinical predictors and also point at novel pathways for prevention and treatment.

Europe-wide air pollution modeling from 2000 to 2019 using geographically weighted regression

Previous European land-use regression (LUR) models assumed fixed linear relationships between air pollution concentrations and predictors such as traffic and land use. We evaluated whether including spatially-varying relationships could improve European LUR models by using geographically weighted regression (GWR) and random forest (RF). We built separate LUR models for each year from 2000 to 2019 for NO2, O3, PM2.5 and PM10 using annual average monitoring observations across Europe. Potential predictors included satellite retrievals, chemical transport model estimates and land-use variables. Supervised linear regression (SLR) was used to select predictors, and then GWR estimated the potentially spatially-varying coefficients. We developed multi-year models using geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR). Five-fold cross-validation per year showed that GWR and GTWR explained similar spatial variations in annual average concentrations (average R2 = NO2: 0.66; O3: 0.58; PM10: 0.62; PM2.5: 0.77), which are better than SLR (average R2 = NO2: 0.61; O3: 0.46; PM10: 0.51; PM2.5: 0.75) and RF (average R2 = NO2: 0.64; O3: 0.53; PM10: 0.56; PM2.5: 0.67). The GTWR predictions and a previously-used method of back-extrapolating 2010 model predictions using CTM were overall highly correlated (R2 > 0.8) for all pollutants. Including spatially-varying relationships using GWR modestly improved European air pollution annual LUR models, allowing time-varying exposure-health risk models.

Arctic atmospheric mercury: Sources and changes

Global anthropogenic and legacy mercury (Hg) emissions are the main sources of Arctic Hg contamination, primarily transported there via the atmosphere. This review summarizes the state of knowledge of the global anthropogenic sources of Hg emissions, and examines recent changes and source attribution of Hg transport and deposition to the Arctic using models. Estimated global anthropogenic Hg emissions to the atmosphere for 2015 were ~2220 Mg, ~20% higher than 2010. Global anthropogenic, legacy and geogenic Hg emissions were, respectively, responsible for 32%, 64% (wildfires: 6-10%) and 4% of the annual Arctic Hg deposition. Relative contributions to Arctic deposition of anthropogenic origin was dominated by sources in East Asia (32%), Commonwealth of Independent States (12%), and Africa (12%). Model results exhibit significant spatiotemporal variations in Arctic anthropogenic Hg deposition fluxes, driven by regional differences in Hg air transport routes, surface and precipitation uptake rates, and inter-seasonal differences in atmospheric circulation and deposition pathways. Model simulations reveal that changes in meteorology are having a profound impact on contemporary atmospheric Hg in the Arctic. Reversal of North Atlantic Oscillation phase from strongly negative in 2010 to positive in 2015, associated with lower temperature and more sea ice in the Canadian Arctic, Greenland and surrounding ocean, resulted in enhanced production of bromine species and Hg(0) oxidation and lower evasion of Hg(0) from ocean waters in 2015. This led to increased Hg(II) (and its deposition) and reduced Hg(0) air concentrations in these regions in line with High Arctic observations. However, combined changes in meteorology and anthropogenic emissions led to overall elevated modeled Arctic air Hg(0) levels in 2015 compared to 2010 contrary to observed declines at most monitoring sites, likely due to uncertainties in anthropogenic emission speciation, wildfire emissions and model representations of air-surface Hg fluxes.

Exposure to transportation noise and risk for cardiovascular disease in a nationwide cohort study from Denmark

BACKGROUND

Transportation noise increases the risk of ischemic heart disease (IHD), but few studies have investigated subtypes of IHD, such as myocardial infarction (MI), angina pectoris, or heart failure. We aimed to study whether exposure to road, railway and aircraft noise increased risk for ischemic heart disease (IHD), IHD subtypes, and heart failure in the entire adult Danish population, investigating exposures at both maximum exposed and silent façades of each residence.

METHODS

We modelled road, railway, and aircraft noise at the most and least exposed façades for the period 1995-2017 for all addresses in Denmark and calculated 10-year time-weighted running means for 2.5 million individuals age ≥50 years, of whom 122,523 developed IHD and 79,358 developed heart failure during follow-up (2005-2017). Data were analyzed using Cox proportional hazards models, adjusted for individual and area-level sociodemographic covariates and air pollution.

RESULTS

We found road traffic noise at the most exposed façade (L_den) to be associated with higher risk of IHD, myocardial infarction (MI), angina pectoris, and heart failure, with hazard ratios (HRs) (95% confidence intervals (CI)) of 1.052 (1.044-1.059), 1.041 (1.032-1.051), 1.095 (1.071-1.119), and 1.039 (1.033-1.045) per 10 dB higher 10-year mean exposure, respectively. These associations followed a near-linear exposure-response relationship and were robust to adjustment for air pollution with PM_2.5. Railway noise at the least exposed façade was associated with heart failure (HR 1.28; 95% CI: 1.004-1.053), but not the other outcomes. Exposure to aircraft noise (>45 dB) seemed associated with increased risk for MI and heart failure.

CONCLUSIONS

We found road traffic noise and potentially railway and aircraft noise to increase risk of various major cardiovascular outcomes, highlighting the importance of preventive actions towards transportation noise.

Analysis of mortality metrics associated with a comprehensive range of disorders in Denmark, 2000 to 2018: A population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

The provision of different types of mortality metrics (e.g., mortality rate ratios [MRRs] and life expectancy) allows the research community to access a more informative set of health metrics. The aim of this study was to provide a panel of mortality metrics associated with a comprehensive range of disorders and to design a web page to visualize all results.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

In a population-based cohort of all 7,378,598 persons living in Denmark at some point between 2000 and 2018, we identified individuals diagnosed at hospitals with 1,803 specific categories of disorders through the International Classification of Diseases-10th Revision (ICD-10) in the National Patient Register. Information on date and cause of death was obtained from the Registry of Causes of Death. For each of the disorders, a panel of epidemiological and mortality metrics was estimated, including incidence rates, age-of-onset distributions, MRRs, and differences in life expectancy (estimated as life years lost [LYLs]). Additionally, we examined models that adjusted for measures of air pollution to explore potential associations with MRRs. We focus on 39 general medical conditions to simplify the presentation of results, which cover 10 broad categories: circulatory, endocrine, pulmonary, gastrointestinal, urogenital, musculoskeletal, hematologic, mental, and neurologic conditions and cancer. A total of 3,676,694 males and 3,701,904 females were followed up for 101.7 million person-years. During the 19-year follow-up period, 1,034,273 persons (14.0%) died. For 37 of the 39 selected medical conditions, mortality rates were larger and life expectancy shorter compared to the Danish general population. For these 37 disorders, MRRs ranged from 1.09 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.09 to 1.10) for vision problems to 7.85 (7.77 to 7.93) for chronic liver disease, while LYLs ranged from 0.31 (0.14 to 0.47) years (approximately 16 weeks) for allergy to 17.05 (16.95 to 17.15) years for chronic liver disease. Adjustment for air pollution had very little impact on the estimates; however, a limitation of the study is the possibility that the association between the different disorders and mortality could be explained by other underlying factors associated with both the disorder and mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, we show estimates of incidence, age of onset, age of death, and mortality metrics (both MRRs and LYLs) for a comprehensive range of disorders. The interactive data visualization site (https://nbepi.com/atlas) allows more fine-grained analysis of the link between a range of disorders and key mortality estimates.

Air pollution at the residence of Danish adults, by socio-demographic characteristics, morbidity, and address level characteristics

BACKGROUND

Exposure to outdoor air pollution is associated with adverse health effects. Previous studies have indicated higher levels of air pollution in socially deprived areas.

AIM

To investigate associations between air pollution and socio-demographic variables, comorbidity, stress, and green space at the residence in Denmark.

METHODS

We included 2,237,346 persons living in Denmark, aged 35 years or older in 2017. We used the high resolution, multi-scale DEHM/UBM/AirGIS air pollution modelling system to calculate mean concentrations of air pollution with PM_2.5, elemental carbon, ultrafine particles and NO₂ at residences held the preceding five years. We used nationwide registries to retrieve information about socio-demographic indicators at the individual and neighborhood levels. We used general linear regression models to analyze associations between socio-demographic indicators and air pollution at the residence.

RESULTS

Individuals with high SES (income, higher white-collar worker and high educational level) and of non-Danish origin were exposed to higher levels of air pollution than individuals of low SES and of Danish origin, respectively. We found comparable levels of air pollution according to sex, stress events and morbidity. For neighborhood level SES indicators, we found high air pollution levels in neighborhoods with low SES measured as proportion of social housing, sole providers, low income and unemployment. In contrast, we found higher air pollution levels in neighborhoods with higher educational level and a low proportion of manual labor. People living in an apartment and/or with little green space had higher air pollution levels.

CONCLUSION

In Denmark, high levels of residential air pollution were associated with higher individual SES and non-Danish origin. For neighborhood-level indicators of SES, no consistent pattern was observed. These results highlight the need for analyzing many different socio-demographic indicators to understand the complex associations between SES and exposure to air pollution.

Exposure to source-specific air pollution and risk for type 2 diabetes: a nationwide study covering Denmark

BACKGROUND

Only few epidemiological studies have investigated whether chronic exposure to air pollution from different sources have different impacts on risk of diabetes. We aimed to investigate associations between air pollution from traffic versus non-traffic sources and risk of type 2 diabetes in the Danish population.

METHODS

We estimated long-term exposure to traffic and non-traffic contributions of particulate matter with a diameter <2.5 µg (PM2.5), elemental carbon (EC), ultrafine particles (UFP) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) for all persons living in Denmark for the period 2005-17. In total, 2.6 million persons aged >35 years were included, of whom 148 020 developed type 2 diabetes during follow-up. We applied Cox proportional hazards models for analyses, using 5-year time-weighted running means of air pollution and adjustment for individual- and area-level demographic and socioeconomic covariates.

RESULTS

We found that 5-year exposure to all particle measures (PM2.5, UFP and EC) and NO2 were associated with higher type 2 diabetes risk. We observed that for UFP, EC and potentially PM2.5, the pollution originating from traffic was associated with higher risks than the non-traffic contributions, whereas for NO2 similar hazard ratios (HR) were observed. For example, in two-source models, hazard ratios (HRs) per interquartile change in traffic UFP, EC and PM2.5 were 1.025, 1.045 and 1.036, respectively, whereas for non-traffic UFP, EC and PM2.5, the HRs were 1.013, 1.018 and 1.001, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Our finding of stronger associations with particulate matter from traffic compared with non-traffic sources implies that prevention strategies should focus on limiting traffic-related particulate matter air pollution.

The effect of the 2020 COVID-19 lockdown on atmospheric black carbon levels in northeastern Greenland

The outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 and subsequent spread of the disease COVID-19 became classified as a pandemic in March of 2020, leading to global safety measures introduced to limit the impact of the virus. This combination of safety measures has become commonly referred to as "lockdown". The associated industry and lifestyle changes led to reductions in the anthropogenic emission of atmospheric pollutants such as black carbon (BC), which is transported from the mid-latitudes into the Arctic during the winter and spring. Measurements of BC and other anthropogenic pollutants are of increasing importance in the Arctic due to the rapid warming observed there in the past few decades. It is believed that BC has a significant role in this warming, and so understanding the Arctic's response to reduced BC emissions at lower latitudes will provide insight into how future changes might mitigate further warming. Reductions in BC have been reported worldwide, and so in this study, the impact of these reductions on BC concentrations at the High Arctic site Villum Research Station was investigated. The effect was examined from March 2020, around when global lockdowns began, to June 2020, when the Arctic haze period ended and BC levels were once again low. Firstly, the Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM) was used to assess this impact on BC concentrations by adjusting global anthropogenic pollution emission inventories to simulate those observed during the lockdown period and comparing the results to a similar model run with standard emission inventories. Secondly, equivalent BC data from an aethalometer at Villum Research Station were analysed, comparing the concentrations during the lockdown period to both aethalometer data from previous years and DEHM results from the lockdown period. It was found that when adjusted DEHM emission inventories were introduced from the 1st of March, the model predicted a reduction in BC concentrations beginning on the 10th of March and reached a 10% reduction by the 1st of April. This reduction fluctuated around 10% until the end of the Arctic haze period. Aethalometer data did not show any significant change from previous years, and no concentration reduction could be concluded from its comparison with DEHM results. This is likely because the predicted reduction of 10% is smaller than both the inter-annual and intra-annual variability of measured BC concentrations at Villum.

The effect of adjustment to register-based and questionnaire-based covariates on the association between air pollution and cardiometabolic disease

OBJECTIVE

Recent studies on air pollution and disease have been based on millions of participants within a region or country, relying entirely on register-based confounder adjustment. We aimed to investigate the effects of increasing adjustment for register- and questionnaire-based covariates on the association between air pollution and cardiometabolic diseases.

METHODS

In a population-based cohort of 246,766 eligible participants randomly selected across Denmark in 2010 and 2013 and followed up until December 31, 2017, we identified 3,247 myocardial infarction (MI) cases, 4,166 stroke cases and 6,366 type 2 diabetes cases. Based on historical address-information, we calculated 5-year time-weighted exposure to PM_2.5 and NO₂ modelled using a validated air pollution model. We used Cox proportional hazards models to calculate hazard ratios (HR) with increasing adjustment for a number of individual- and area-level register-based covariates as well as lifestyle covariates assessed through questionnaires.

RESULTS

We found that a 5 μg/m³ higher PM_2.5 was associated with HRs (95% CI) for MI, stroke and diabetes, of respectively, 1.18 (0.91-1.52), 1.11 (0.88-1.40) and 1.24 (1.03-1.50) in the fully adjusted models. For all three diseases, adjustment for either individual-level, area-level or lifestyle covariates, or combinations of these resulted in higher HRs compared to HRs adjusted only for age, sex and calendar-year, most marked for MI and diabetes. Further adjustment for lifestyle in models with full register-based individual- and area-level adjustment resulted in only minor changes in HRs for all three diseases.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that in studies of air pollution and cardiometabolic disease, which use an adjustment strategy with a broad range of register-based socioeconomic variables, there is no effect on risk estimates from subsequent lifestyle adjustment.

Incidence and prevalence of rheumatoid arthritis in Denmark from 1998 to 2018: a nationwide register-based study

Objective: To investigate the incidence and prevalence of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in the adult Danish population.Method: In this nationwide register-based cohort study, patients with incident RA between 1998 and the end of 2018 were identified using Danish administrative registries. The age- and sex-standardized incidence rate (IR), incidence proportion (IP), lifetime risk (LR), and point prevalence (PP) of RA were calculated. RA was defined as a first-time RA diagnosis registered in the Danish National Patient Registry combined with a redeemed prescription of a conventional synthetic disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drug in the following year. In addition, three different case definitions of RA were explored.Results: The overall age- and sex-standardized IR of RA from 1998 to 2018 was 35.5 [95% confidence interval (CI) 35.1-35.9] per 100 000 person-years while the IP was 35.2 (95% CI 34.8-35.5) per 100 000 individuals. The IR was two-fold higher for women than for men. The LR of RA ranged from 2.3% to 3.4% for women and from 1.1% to 1.5% for men, depending on the RA case definition used. The overall PP of RA was 0.6% (95% CI 0.5-0.6%) in 2018: 0.8% (95% CI 0.7-0.8%) for women and 0.3% (95% CI 0.3-0.4%) for men. The prevalence increased about 1.5-fold from 2000 to 2018.Conclusion: The IR and PP were approximately two-fold higher for women than for men. The prevalence of RA in Denmark increased significantly from 2000 to 2018. The RA case definition had more impact on the results than the choice of denominator.

The ECHELON-2 Trial: 5-year results of a randomized, phase 3 study of brentuximab vedotin with chemotherapy for CD30-positive peripheral T-cell lymphoma

Background:

For patients with peripheral T-cell lymphoma (PTCL), outcomes using frontline treatment with cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, vincristine, and prednisone (CHOP) or CHOP-like therapy are typically poor. The ECHELON-2 study demonstrated that brentuximab vedotin plus cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, and prednisone (A+CHP) exhibited statistically superior progression-free survival (PFS) per independent central review and improvements in overall survival versus CHOP for the frontline treatment of patients with systemic anaplastic large cell lymphoma or other CD30-positive PTCL.

Patients and methods:

ECHELON-2 is a double-blind, double-dummy, randomized, placebo-controlled, active-comparator phase III study. We present an exploratory update of the ECHELON-2 study, including an analysis of 5-year PFS per investigator in the intent-to-treat analysis group.

Results:

A total of 452 patients were randomized (1 : 1) to six or eight cycles of A+CHP (N = 226) or CHOP (N = 226). At median follow-up of 47.6 months, 5-year PFS rates were 51.4% [95% confidence interval (CI): 42.8% to 59.4%] with A+CHP versus 43.0% (95% CI: 35.8% to 50.0%) with CHOP (hazard ratio = 0.70; 95% CI: 0.53–0.91), and 5-year overall survival (OS) rates were 70.1% (95% CI: 63.3% to 75.9%) with A+CHP versus 61.0% (95% CI: 54.0% to 67.3%) with CHOP (hazard ratio = 0.72; 95% CI: 0.53–0.99). Both PFS and OS were generally consistent across key subgroups. Peripheral neuropathy was resolved or improved in 72% (84/117) of patients in the A+CHP arm and 78% (97/124) in the CHOP arm. Among patients who relapsed and subsequently received brentuximab vedotin, the objective response rate was 59% with brentuximab vedotin retreatment after A+CHP and 50% with subsequent brentuximab vedotin after CHOP.

Conclusions:

In this 5-year update of ECHELON-2, frontline treatment of patients with PTCL with A+CHP continues to provide clinically meaningful improvement in PFS and OS versus CHOP, with a manageable safety profile, including continued resolution or improvement of peripheral neuropathy.

Long-term exposure to road traffic noise and stroke incidence: a Danish Nurse Cohort study

BACKGROUND

Road traffic noise has been linked to increased risk of ischemic heart disease, yet evidence on stroke shows mixed results. We examine the association between long-term exposure to road traffic noise and incidence of stroke, overall and by subtype (ischemic or hemorrhagic), after adjustment for air pollution.

METHODS

Twenty-five thousand six hundred and sixty female nurses from the Danish Nurse Cohort recruited in 1993 or 1999 were followed for stroke-related first-ever hospital contact until December 31st, 2014. Full residential address histories since 1970 were obtained and annual means of road traffic noise (L_den [dB]) and air pollutants (particulate matter with diameter < 2.5 μm and < 10 μm [PM_2.5 and PM₁₀], nitrogen dioxide [NO₂], nitrogen oxides [NOx]) were determined using validated models. Time-varying Cox regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) (95% confidence intervals [CI]) for the associations of one-, three-, and 23-year running means of L_den preceding stroke (all, ischemic or hemorrhagic), adjusting for stroke risk factors and air pollutants. The World Health Organization and the Danish government's maximum exposure recommendations of 53 and 58 dB, respectively, were explored as potential L_den thresholds.

RESULTS

Of 25,660 nurses, 1237 developed their first stroke (1089 ischemic, 148 hemorrhagic) during 16 years mean follow-up. For associations between a 1-year mean of L_den and overall stroke incidence, the estimated HR (95% CI) in the fully adjusted model was 1.06 (0.98-1.14) per 10 dB, which attenuated to 1.01 (0.93-1.09) and 1.00 (0.91-1.09) in models further adjusted for PM_2.5 or NO₂, respectively. Associations for other exposure periods or separately for ischemic or hemorrhagic stroke were similar. There was no evidence of a threshold association between L_den and stroke.

CONCLUSIONS

Long-term exposure to road traffic noise was suggestively positively associated with the risk of overall stroke, although not after adjusting for air pollution.

Exposure to ambient air pollution during childhood and subsequent risk of self-harm: A national cohort study

A growing body of evidence indicates that exposure to air pollution not only impacts on physical health but is also linked with a deterioration in mental health. We conducted the first study to investigate exposure to ambient particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of less than 2.5 μm (PM_2.5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) during childhood and subsequent self-harm risk. The study cohort included persons born in Denmark between January 1, 1979 and December 31, 2006 (N = 1,424,670), with information on daily exposures to PM_2.5 and NO₂ at residence from birth to 10th birthday. Follow-up began from 10th birthday until first hospital-presenting self-harm episode, death, or December 31, 2016, whichever came first. Incidence rate ratios estimated by Poisson regression models revealed a dose relationship between increasing PM_2.5 exposure and rising self-harm risk. Exposure to 17-19 μg/m³ of PM_2.5 on average per day from birth to 10th birthday was associated with a 1.45 fold (95% CI 1.37-1.53) subsequently elevated self-harm risk compared with a mean daily exposure of <13 μg/m³, whilst those exposed to 19 μg/m³ or above on average per day had a 1.59 times (1.45-1.75) elevated risk. Higher mean daily exposure to NO₂ during childhood was also linked with increased self-harm risk, but the dose-response relationship observed was less evident than for PM_2.5. Covariate adjustment attenuated the associations, but risk remained independently elevated. Although causality cannot be assumed, these novel findings indicate a potential etiological involvement of ambient air pollution in the development of mental ill health.

Long-Term Exposure to Transportation Noise and Risk of Incident Stroke: A Pooled Study of Nine Scandinavian Cohorts

BACKGROUND

Transportation noise is increasingly acknowledged as a cardiovascular risk factor, but the evidence base for an association with stroke is sparse.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to investigate the association between transportation noise and stroke incidence in a large Scandinavian population.

METHODS

We harmonized and pooled data from nine Scandinavian cohorts (seven Swedish, two Danish), totaling 135,951 participants. We identified residential address history and estimated road, railway, and aircraft noise for all addresses. Information on stroke incidence was acquired through linkage to national patient and mortality registries. We analyzed data using Cox proportional hazards models, including socioeconomic and lifestyle confounders, and air pollution.

RESULTS

During follow-up (median=19.5y), 11,056 stroke cases were identified. Road traffic noise (Lden) was associated with risk of stroke, with a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.06 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.03, 1.08] per 10-dB higher 5-y mean time-weighted exposure in analyses adjusted for individual- and area-level socioeconomic covariates. The association was approximately linear and persisted after adjustment for air pollution [particulate matter (PM) with an aerodynamic diameter of ≤2.5μm (PM2.5) and NO2]. Stroke was associated with moderate levels of 5-y aircraft noise exposure (40-50 vs. ≤40 dB) (HR=1.12; 95% CI: 0.99, 1.27), but not with higher exposure (≥50 dB, HR=0.94; 95% CI: 0.79, 1.11). Railway noise was not associated with stroke.

DISCUSSION

In this pooled study, road traffic noise was associated with a higher risk of stroke. This finding supports road traffic noise as an important cardiovascular risk factor that should be included when estimating the burden of disease due to traffic noise. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP8949.

Early childhood exposure to ambient air pollution is associated with increased risk of paediatric asthma: An administrative cohort study from Stockholm, Sweden

INTRODUCTION

Asthma is a complex, heterogeneous disease and one of the most common chronic diseases among children. Exposure to ambient air pollution in early life and childhood may influence asthma aetiology, but it is uncertain which specific components of air pollution and exposure windows are of importance. The role of socio-economic status (SES) is also unclear. The aims of the present study are, therefore, to investigate how various exposure windows of different pollutants affect risk-induced asthma in early life and to explore the possible effect SES has on that relationship.

METHODS

The study population was constructed using register data on all singleton births in the greater Stockholm area between 2006 and 2013. Exposure to ambient black carbon (BC), fine particulate matter (PM_2.5), primary organic carbon (pOC) secondary organic aerosols (SOA), secondary inorganic aerosols, and oxidative potential at the residential address was modelled as mean values for the entire pregnancy period, the first year of life and the first three years of life. Swedish national registers were used to define the outcome: asthma diagnosis assessed at hospital during the first six years of life. Hazard ratios (HRs) and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were modelled with Cox proportional hazards model with age as the underlying time-scale, adjusting for relevant potential confounding variables.

RESULTS

An increased risk for developing childhood asthma was observed in association with exposure to PM_2.5, pOC and SOA during the first three years of life. With an interquartile range increase in exposure, the HRs were 1.06 (95% CI: 1.01-1.10), 1.05 (95% CI: 1.02-1.09) and 1.02 (95% CI: 1.00-1.04), for PM_2.5, pOC and SOA, respectively, in the fully adjusted models. Exposure during foetal life or the first year of life was not associated with asthma risk, and the other pollutants were not statistically significantly associated with increased risk. Furthermore, the increase in risk associated with PM_2.5 and the components BC, pOC and SOA were stronger in areas with lower SES.

CONCLUSION

Our results suggest that exposure to air pollution during the first three years of life may increase the risk for asthma in early childhood. The findings further imply a possible increased vulnerability to air pollution-attributed asthma among low SES children.

Long-Term Residential Exposure to Particulate Matter and Its Components, Nitrogen Dioxide and Ozone-A Northern Sweden Cohort Study on Mortality

This study aims to estimate the mortality risk associated with air pollution in a Swedish cohort with relatively low exposure. Air pollution models were used to estimate annual mean concentrations of particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤ 2.5 µm (PM_2.5), primary emitted carbonaceous particles (BC/pOC), sea salt, chemically formed particles grouped as secondary inorganic and organic aerosols (SIA and SOA) as well as ozone (O₃) and nitrogen dioxide (NO₂). The exposure, as a moving average was calculated based on home address for the time windows 1 year (lag 1), 1-5 years (lag 1-5) and 1-10 years (lag 1-10) preceding the death. During the study period, 1151 cases of natural mortality, 253 cases of cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality and 113 cases of respiratory and lung cancer mortality were observed during 369,394 person-years of follow-up. Increased natural mortality was observed in association with NO₂ (3% [95% CI -8-14%] per IQR) and PM_2.5 (2% [95% CI -5-9%] for an IQR increase) and its components, except for SOA where a decreased risk was observed. Higher risk increases were observed for CVD mortality (e.g., 18% [95% CI 1-39%] per IQR for NO₂). These findings at low exposure levels are relevant for future decisions concerning air quality policies.

Long-Term Exposure to Road Traffic Noise and Air Pollution, and Incident Atrial Fibrillation in the Danish Nurse Cohort

BACKGROUND

Associations between long-term exposure to air pollution and road traffic noise have been established for ischemic heart disease, but findings have been mixed for atrial fibrillation (AF).

OBJECTIVES

The goal of the study was to examine associations of long-term exposure to road traffic noise and air pollution with AF.

METHODS

Time-varying Cox regression models were used to estimate associations of 1-, 3-, and 23-y mean road traffic noise and air pollution exposures with AF incidence in 23,528 women enrolled in the Danish Nurse Cohort (age >44y at baseline in 1993 or 1999). AF diagnoses were ascertained via the Danish National Patient Register. Annual mean weighted 24-h average road traffic noise levels (Lden) at the nurses' residences, since 1970, were estimated using the Nord2000 model, and annual mean levels of particulate matter with a diameter <2.5μm (PM2.5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) were estimated using the DEHM/UBM/AirGIS model.

RESULTS

Of 23,528 nurses with no prior AF diagnosis at the cohort baseline, 1,522 developed AF during follow-up. In a fully adjusted model (including PM2.5), the estimated risk of AF was 18% higher [hazard ratio (HR); 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.18; 1.02, 1.36] in nurses with residential 3-y mean Lden levels >58 dB vs. <48 dB, with similar findings for 1-y mean exposures. A 3.9-μg/m3 increase in 3-y mean PM2.5 was associated with incident AF before and after adjustment for concurrent exposure to road traffic noise (HR 1.09; 95% CI: 1.00, 1.20 and 1.08; 95% CI: 0.97, 1.19, respectively). Associations with 1-y mean PM2.5 exposures were positive but closer to the null and not significant. Associations with NO2 were null for all time periods before and after adjustment for road traffic noise and inverse when adjusted for concurrent PM2.5.

CONCLUSION

Our analysis of prospective data from a cohort of Danish female nurses followed for up to 14 y provided suggestive evidence of independent associations between incident AF and 1- and 3-y exposures to road traffic noise and PM2.5. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP8090.

Long-term exposure to ambient air pollution and road traffic noise and asthma incidence in adults: The Danish Nurse cohort

BACKGROUND

Ambient air pollution is likely a risk factor for asthma, and recent evidence suggests the possible relevance of road traffic noise.

OBJECTIVES

We examined the associations of long-term exposure to air pollution and road traffic noise with adult-asthma incidence.

METHODS

We followed 28,731 female nurses (age > 44 years) from the Danish Nurse Cohort, recruited in 1993 and 1999, for first hospital contact for asthma from 1977 until 2015. We estimated residential annual mean concentrations of particulate matter with diameter < 2.5 µm (PM_2.5) since 1990 and nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) since 1970 with the Danish DEHM/UBM/AirGIS modeling system, and road traffic noise (L_den) since 1970 with the Nord2000 model. Time-varying Cox regression models were used to associate air pollution and road traffic noise exposure with asthma incidence.

RESULTS

During 18.6 years' mean follow-up, 528 out of 23,093 participants had hospital contact for asthma. The hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals for asthma incidence associated with 3-year moving average exposures were 1.29 (1.03, 1.61) per 6.3 µg/m³ for PM_2.5, 1.16 (1.07, 1.27) per 8.2 µg/m³ for NO₂, and 1.12 (1.00, 1.25) per 10 dB for L_den. The HR for NO₂ remained unchanged after adjustment for either PM_2.5 or L_den, while the HRs for PM_2.5 and L_den attenuated to unity after adjustment for NO₂.

CONCLUSIONS

Long-term exposure to air pollution was associated with adult-asthma incidence independently of road traffic noise, with NO₂ most relevant. Road traffic noise was not independently associated with adult-asthma incidence.

Long-term air pollution and road traffic noise exposure and COPD: the Danish Nurse Cohort

BACKGROUND

While air pollution has been linked to the development of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), evidence on the role of environmental noise is just emerging. We examined the associations of long-term exposure to air pollution and road traffic noise with COPD incidence.

METHODS

We defined COPD incidence for 24 538 female nurses from the Danish Nurse Cohort (age>44 years) as the first hospital contact between baseline (1993 or 1999) and 2015. We estimated residential annual mean concentrations of particulate matter with diameter<2.5 µm (PM_2.5) since 1990 and nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) since 1970 by the Danish DEHM/UBM/AirGIS modeling system, and road traffic noise (L_den) since 1970 by the Nord2000 model. Time-varying Cox regression models were applied to assess the associations of air pollution and road traffic noise with COPD incidence.

RESULTS

977 nurses developed COPD during 18.6 years' mean follow-up. We observed associations with COPD for all three exposures with hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of 1.19 (1.01, 1.41) per 6.26 µg·m^-3 for PM_2.5, 1.13 (1.05, 1.20) per 8.19 µg·m^-3 for NO₂, and 1.15 (1.06, 1.25) per 10 dB for L_den. Associations with NO₂ and L_den attenuated slightly after mutual adjustment, but were robust to adjustment for PM_2.5. Associations with PM_2.5 were attenuated to null after adjustment for either NO₂ or L_den. No potential interaction effect was observed between air pollutants and noise.

CONCLUSIONS

Long-term exposure to air pollution, especially traffic-related NO₂, and road traffic noise were independently associated with COPD.

Transportation noise and risk of stroke: a nationwide prospective cohort study covering Denmark

BACKGROUND

Studies on transportation noise and incident stroke are few and inconclusive. We aimed to investigate associations between road-traffic and railway noise and the risk of incident stroke in the entire Danish population.

METHODS

We estimated road-traffic and railway noise (Lden) at the most and least exposed façades for all residential addresses across Denmark (2.8 million) for the period 1990-2017. Based on this, we estimated the 10-year time-weighted mean noise exposure for 3.6 million Danes aged >35 years, of whom 184 523 developed incident stroke during follow-up from 2000 to 2017. Analyses were conducted using Cox proportional-hazards models, with adjustment for various individual- and area-level demographic and socio-economic covariates collected from registries and air pollution [fine particulate matter with particles with a diameter of ≤2.5 µm (PM2.5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2)].

RESULTS

A 10-dB increase in the 10-year mean road-traffic noise at the most exposed façade was associated with an incidence rate ratio (IRR) of 1.04 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.03-1.05] for all strokes. For road-traffic noise at the least exposed façade, the IRR per 10 dB was 1.03 (95% CI: 1.02-1.04) for all strokes. Railway noise was not associated with a higher risk of stroke.

CONCLUSION

Road-traffic noise increased the risk of stroke. These findings add to the evidence of road-traffic noise as a cardiovascular risk factor.

Global emissions of Dechlorane Plus

Dechlorane Plus (DP) is a chlorinated flame retardant applied in parallel to or as a replacement product for regulated flame retardants. Detection of DP in environmental media all over the world in recent years necessitates the development of detailed global emission estimates for environmental model studies. Based on production, usage and disposal data two global atmospheric emission scenarios were made with a detailed geographical distribution. The total DP emission is estimated to be 0.02 t/year and 3.2 t/year in a low and high emission scenario, respectively, reflecting the uncertainties in production volumes and emission factors. The emission estimates are tested by implementation in the Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model, an advanced chemistry-transport model. An evaluation against measurements in the Arctic from the early 2010s, considered to represent background concentrations, shows that the predicted concentration range for the high emission scenario is in line with the measured range, whereas the predicted concentrations for the low emission estimate are more than a factor of 100 lower than the measurements, rendering the high emission estimate most probable.

Long-term exposure to air pollution and mortality in the Danish population a nationwide study

BACKGROUND

Studies have shown higher mortality in association with exposure to air pollution. We investigated this association with focus on differences between socioeconomic groups.

METHODS

We included all Danes born between 1921 and 1985 aged 30-85 years from 1991 to 2015 (N = 4,401,348). We applied a nested case-control design and identified those who died during follow-up and selected five controls per case. We modelled NO2, fine particulate matter (PM2·5), black carbon (BC) particles, and ozone (O3) as five-year average concentrations at the residential addresses of 672,895 all natural cause mortality cases and 3,426,533 controls in conditional logistic regression with adjustment for individual and neighbourhood level socio-demographic variables.

FINDINGS

In single pollutant models, a 10 μg/m3 (BC: 1 μg/m3) increase in NO2, PM2·5, BC, and O3 was associated with natural cause mortality rate ratios (MRR) of 1·05 (95% confidence interval 1·04-1·06), 1·08 (1·04-1·13), 1·05 (1·02-1·08), and 0·96 (0·95-0·97), respectively. The patterns were similar for respiratory disease and lung cancer mortality. O3 was associated with higher risk of CVD mortality. The rate differences for a unit increase in PM2·5, NO2, and BC were largest among those with the lowest income; this pattern was not detected when considering the relative risk measure, MRR.

INTERPRETATION

Long-term concentration of air pollution at the residence was associated with higher natural cause mortality in the Danish population and the strength of the association differed by socioeconomic group. We recommend that future studies express socioeconomic differences in absolute rather than relative risk.

Components of particulate matter air-pollution and brain tumors

BACKGROUND

Air pollution is an established carcinogen. Evidence for an association with brain tumors is, however, inconclusive. We investigated if individual particulate matter constituents were associated with brain tumor risk.

METHODS

From comprehensive national registers, we identified all (n = 12 928) brain tumor cases, diagnosed in Denmark in the period 1989-2014, and selected 22 961 controls, matched on age, sex and year of birth. We established address histories and estimated 10-year mean residential outdoor concentrations of particulate matter < 2.5 µm, primarily emitted black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC), and combined carbon (OC/BC), as well as secondary inorganic and organic PM air pollutants from a detailed dispersion model. We used conditional logistic regression to calculate odds ratios (OR) per inter quartile range (IQR) exposure. We adjusted for income, marital and employment status as well as area-level socio-demographic characteristics.

RESULTS

Total tumors of the brain were associated with OC/BC (OR: 1.053, 95%CI: 1.005-1.103, per IQR). The data suggested strongest associations for malignant tumors with ORs per IQR for OC/BC, BC and OC of 1.063 (95% CI: 1.007-1.123), 1.036 (95% CI: 1.006-1.067) and 1.030 (95%CI: 0.979-1.085), respectively. The results did not indicate adverse effects of other PM components.

CONCLUSIONS

This large, population based study showed associations between primary emitted carbonaceous particles and risk for malignant brain tumors. As the first of its kind, this study needs replication.

Long-term exposure to low levels of air pollution and mortality adjusting for road traffic noise: A Danish Nurse Cohort study

BACKGROUND

The association between air pollution and mortality is well established, yet some uncertainties remain: there are few studies that account for road traffic noise exposure or that consider in detail the shape of the exposure-response function for cause-specific mortality outcomes, especially at low-levels of exposure.

OBJECTIVES

We examined the association between long-term exposure to particulate matter [(PM) with a diameter of <2.5 µm (PM_2.5), <10 µm (PM₁₀)], and nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) and total and cause-specific mortality, accounting for road traffic noise.

METHODS

We used data on 24,541 females (age > 44 years) from the Danish Nurse Cohort, who were recruited in 1993 or 1999, and linked to the Danish Causes of Death Register for follow-up on date of death and its cause, until the end of 2013. Annual mean concentrations of PM_2.5, PM_10, and NO₂ at the participants' residences since 1990 were estimated using the Danish DEHM/UBM/AirGIS dispersion model, and annual mean road traffic noise levels (L_den) were estimated using the Nord2000 model. We examined associations between the three-year running mean of PM_2.5, PM₁₀, and NO₂ with total and cause-specific mortality by using time-varying Cox Regression models, adjusting for individual characteristics and residential road traffic noise.

RESULTS

During the study period, 3,708 nurses died: 843 from cardiovascular disease (CVD), 310 from respiratory disease (RD), and 64 from diabetes. In the fully adjusted models, including road traffic noise, we detected associations of three-year running mean of PM_2.5 with total (hazard ratio; 95% confidence interval: 1.06; 1.01-1.11), CVD (1.14; 1.03-1.26), and diabetes mortality (1.41; 1.05-1.90), per interquartile range of 4.39 μg/m³. In a subset of the cohort exposed to PM_2.5 < 20 µg/m³, we found even stronger association with total (1.19; 1.11-1.27), CVD (1.27; 1.01-1.46), RD (1.27; 1.00-1.60), and diabetes mortality (1.44; 0.83-2.48). We found similar associations with PM₁₀ and none with NO₂. All associations were robust to adjustment for road traffic noise.

DISCUSSION

Long-term exposure to low-levels of PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ is associated with total mortality, and mortality from CVD, RD, and diabetes. Associations were even stronger at the PM_2.5 levels below EU limit values and were independent of road traffic noise.

Relationship of leukaemias with long-term ambient air pollution exposures in the adult Danish population

Background

Few population-based epidemiological studies of adults have examined the relationship between air pollution and leukaemias.

Methods

Using Danish National Cancer Registry data and Danish DEHM-UBM-AirGIS system-modelled air pollution exposures, we examined whether particulate matter (PM_2.5), black carbon (BC), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) and ozone (O₃) averaged over 1, 5 or 10 years were associated with adult leukaemia in general or by subtype. In all, 14,986 adult cases diagnosed 1989–2014 and 51,624 age, sex and time-matched controls were included. Separate conditional logistic regression models, adjusted for socio-demographic factors, assessed exposure to each pollutant with leukaemias.

Results

Fully adjusted models showed a higher risk of leukaemia with higher 1-, 5- and 10-year-average exposures to PM_2.5 prior to diagnosis (e.g. OR per 10 µg/m³ for 10-year average: 1.17, 95% CI: 1.03, 1.32), and a positive relationship with 1-year average BC. Results were driven by participants 70 years and older (OR per 10 µg/m³ for 10-year average: 1.35, 95% CI: 1.15–1.58). Null findings for younger participants. Higher 1-year average PM_2.5 exposures were associated with higher risks for acute myeloid and chronic lymphoblastic leukaemia.

Conclusion

Among older adults, higher risk for leukaemia was associated with higher residential PM_2.5 concentrations averaged over 1, 5 and 10 years prior to diagnosis.

Long-term exposure to air pollution and stroke incidence: A Danish Nurse cohort study

Ambient air pollution has been linked to stroke, but few studies have examined in detail stroke subtypes and confounding by road traffic noise, which was recently associated with stroke. Here we examined the association between long-term exposure to air pollution and incidence of stroke (overall, ischemic, hemorrhagic), adjusting for road traffic noise. In a nationwide Danish Nurse Cohort consisting of 23,423 nurses, recruited in 1993 or 1999, we identified 1,078 incident cases of stroke (944 ischemic and 134 hemorrhagic) up to December 31, 2014, defined as first-ever hospital contact. The full residential address histories since 1970 were obtained for each participant and the annual means of air pollutants (particulate matter with diameter < 2.5 µm and < 10 µm (PM_2.5 and PM₁₀), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), nitrogen oxides (NOx)) and road traffic noise were determined using validated models. Time-varying Cox regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) (95% confidence intervals (CI)) for the associations of one-, three, and 23-year running mean of air pollutants with stroke adjusting for potential confounders and noise. In fully adjusted models, the HRs (95% CI) per interquartile range increase in one-year running mean of PM_2.5 and overall, ischemic, and hemorrhagic stroke were 1.12 (1.01-1.25), 1.13 (1.01-1.26), and 1.07 (0.80-1.44), respectively, and remained unchanged after adjustment for noise. Long-term exposure to ambient PM_2.5 was associated with the risk of stroke independent of road traffic noise.

Youth leadership in peer-to-peer community sport: comparing programme rationales and peer delivery

Background

Peer-to-peer approaches are widely used in health promotion. Peer leaders are suggested to increase credibility and identification through role modelling. We suggest that to meet the rationales of peer education, peer leaders should be able to interpret and rework their delivery, based on programme rationales. This entails a need for implementation studies to compare programme theory with the realities of implementation. The purpose of this study was therefore to conceptualise a youth-led programme and to explore how peer leaders engage with the peer leader education and subsequently implement activities.

Methods

The case of study was the Danish street sport organisation, GAME. GAME educates and supports youth peer leaders (age 16-25) in providing life skills-based community sports activities for younger peers (age 8-15) in less advantaged neighbourhoods. A theory of change was developed in partnership with professionals from GAME to conceptualise their programme and its rationales. To study implementation, we observed three two-day peer leader education camps and 49 peer-led GAME activities focusing on specific elements of the theory of change.

Results

We present a theory of change to illustrate the content, rationale, expected outcomes and key assumptions of a peer-led community sport programme. We compare this conceptualisation to the implementation of peer-led activities; i.e., GAME's operationalisation of the peer leader education and peer leaders' enactment of the programme in practice, focusing on role modelling, pedagogical approaches and interactions with participating children. As expected, implementation style varied considerably across settings and thereby the ways in which delivery corresponded with the intentions described in the theory of change.

Conclusions

The study provided insight into how youth peer leaders in community sport interpret their role and interact with peers of relevance to peer leadership research and practice.

Key messages

The rationales behind peer education call for programmes that allow youth peer leaders to interpret and adjust activity implementation with an ensuing need for implementation studies. Initiatives to educate and support peer leaders should be modified based on insights into peer leaders’ interpretation and implementation of peer-led activities.

Intracranial tumors of the central nervous system and air pollution - a nationwide case-control study from Denmark

BACKGROUND

Inconclusive evidence has suggested a possible link between air pollution and central nervous system (CNS) tumors. We investigated a range of air pollutants in relation to types of CNS tumors.

METHODS

We identified all (n = 21,057) intracranial tumors in brain, meninges and cranial nerves diagnosed in Denmark between 1989 and 2014 and matched controls on age, sex and year of birth. We established personal 10-year mean residential outdoor exposure to particulate matter < 2.5 μm (PM_2.5), nitrous oxides (NO_X), primary emitted black carbon (BC) and ozone. We used conditional logistic regression to calculate odds ratios (OR) linearly (per interquartile range (IQR)) and categorically. We accounted for personal income, employment, marital status, use of medication as well as socio-demographic conditions at area level.

RESULTS

Malignant tumors of the intracranial CNS was associated with BC (OR: 1.034, 95%CI: 1.005-1.065 per IQR. For NO_x the OR per IQR was 1.026 (95%CI: 0.998-1.056). For malignant non-glioma tumors of the brain we found associations with PM_2.5 (OR: 1.267, 95%CI: 1.053-1.524 per IQR), BC (OR: 1.049, 95%CI: 0.996-1.106) and NO_x (OR: 1.051, 95% CI: 0.996-1.110).

CONCLUSION

Our results suggest that air pollution is associated with malignant intracranial CNS tumors and malignant non-glioma of the brain. However, additional studies are needed.

Long-term exposure to air pollution and risk of non-Hodgkin lymphoma in Denmark: A population-based case-control study

There is limited evidence regarding a possible association between exposure to ambient air pollutants and the risk of non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL). Previous epidemiological studies have relied on crude estimations for air pollution exposure and/or small numbers of NHL cases. The objective of our study was to analyze this association based on air pollution modeled at the address level and NHL cases identified from the nationwide Danish Cancer Registry. We identified 20,874 incident NHL cases diagnosed between 1989 and 2014 and randomly selected 41,749 controls matched on age and gender among the entire Danish population. We used conditional logistic regression to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and adjusted for individual and neighborhood level sociodemographic variables. There was no association between exposure to PM_2.5 , BC, O₃ , SO₂ or NO₂ and overall risk of NHL but several air pollutants were associated with higher risk of follicular lymphoma, but statistically insignificant, for example, PM_2.5 (OR = 1.15 per 5 μg/m³ ; 95% CI: 0.98-1.34) and lower risk for diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (OR = 0.92 per 5 μg/m³ ; 95% CI: 0.82-1.03). In this population-based study, we did not observe any convincing evidence of a higher overall risk for NHL with higher exposure to ambient air pollutants.

Exposure to air pollution during childhood and risk of developing schizophrenia: a national cohort study

BACKGROUND

Ambient air pollution affects neurological function, but its association with schizophrenia risk is unclear. We investigated exposure to nitrogen oxides (NO_X) as a whole and nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) specifically, as well as PM₁₀, and PM_2·5, during childhood and subsequent schizophrenia risk.

METHODS

People born in Denmark from 1980 to 1984 (N=230 844), who were residing in the country on their tenth birthday, and who had two Danish-born parents were followed-up from their tenth birthday until schizophrenia diagnosis or Dec 31, 2016. Mean daily exposure to each pollutant (NO₂, NO_X, PM₁₀, and PM_2·5) at all of an individual's residential addresses from birth to their tenth birthday was modelled. Incidence rate ratios, cumulative incidence, and population attributable risks were calculated using survival analysis techniques.

FINDINGS

We analysed data between Aug 1, 2018, and Nov 15, 2019. Of 230 844 individuals included, 2189 cohort members were diagnosed with schizophrenia during follow-up. Higher concentrations of residential NO₂ and NO_X exposure during childhood were associated with subsequent elevated schizophrenia risk. People exposed to daily mean concentrations of more than 26·5 μg/m³ NO₂ had a 1·62 (95% CI 1·41-1·87) times increased risk compared with people exposed to a mean daily concentration of less than 14·5 μg/m³. The absolute risks of developing schizophrenia by the age of 37 years when exposed to daily mean concentrations of more than 26·5 μg/m³ NO₂ between birth and 10 years were 1·45% (95% CI 1·30-1·62%) for men and 1·03% (0·90-1·17) for women, whereas when exposed to a mean daily concentration of less than 14·5 μg/m³, the risk was 0·80% (95% CI 0·69-0·92%) for men and 0·67% (0·57-0·79) for women. Associations between exposure to PM_2·5 or PM₁₀ and schizophrenia risk were less consistent.

INTERPRETATION

If the association between air pollution and schizophrenia is causal, reducing ambient air pollution including NO₂ and NO_X could have a potentially considerable effect on lowering schizophrenia incidence at the population level. Further investigations are necessary to establish a causal relationship.

FUNDING

Lundbeck Foundation, Stanley Medical Research Institute, European Research Council, NordForsk, Novo Nordisk Foundation, National Health and Medical Research Council, Danish National Research Foundation.