Low-level exposure to lead and atherosclerosis in the carotid arteries: Results from the Swedish population-based cohort SCAPIS

BACKGROUND

Lead exposure is associated with cardiovascular disease. Atherosclerosis has been hypothesized to be one of the underlying mechanisms behind this association.

AIM

To investigate whether lead exposure is associated with an increased risk of atherosclerosis in the carotid arteries in a large Swedish population-based cohort.

METHODS

We performed a cross-sectional study using data from the population-based Swedish CardioPulmonary bioImage Study (SCAPIS), including 5622 middle-aged men and women, enrolled 2013-2018. Blood lead (B-Pb), measured by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry, was used as exposure biomarker. The presence of atherosclerotic plaque in the carotid arteries (yes/no), total plaque area (mm2) and the presence of large plaques (>25 mm2) were determined by ultrasonography. Associations between B-Pb and the different outcomes were analysed using Poisson and linear regression models, adjusted for potential confounders.

RESULTS

Atherosclerotic plaque was present in 57% of the individuals, for whom the median total plaque area was 16 mm2 (range: 0.2-222). The median B-Pb concentration was 14 μg/L (range: 0.75-203). After adjusting for potential confounders, individuals in the fourth quartile of B-Pb (Q4) had a prevalence ratio (PR) for plaque of 1.08 (95% CI: 1.01, 1.16) when compared with the first quartile (Q1). A 10 μg/L increase in B-Pb concentrations was associated with an increase of 0.92 mm2 (95% CI: 0.14, 1.71) in total plaque area. The PR for large plaque was 1.09 (95% CI: 0.84, 1.42 for Q4 vs Q1).

CONCLUSIONS

This study shows an association between B-Pb and atherosclerosis in the carotid arteries providing some support for the hypothesis that atherosclerosis is one of the mechanisms underlying the association between lead exposure and cardiovascular disease.

Urinary iodine excretion and optimal time point for sampling when estimating 24-h urinary iodine

Iodine deficiency may cause thyroid dysfunction. The iodine intake in a population is measured by urinary iodine concentration (UIC) in spot samples or 24-h urinary iodine excretion (24UIE). 24UIE is considered the gold standard and may be estimated using an equation including UIC, urinary creatinine concentration, sex and age (e24UIE). The aims of this study were to evaluate the preferable timing of UIC when using this equation and assess the variability of UIE. Sixty healthy non-smoking women (n 31) and men (n 29) were included in Gothenburg, Sweden. Twelve urine samples were collected at six fixed times on two separate days. Variability was calculated for UIC, 24UIE, e24UIE, iodine excretion per hour (iHr) and UIC adjusted for creatinine and specific gravity. Median 24UIE was 156 µg/24 h and the median UIC (all spot samples) was 104 µg/l. UIC (P < 0·001), 24UIE (P = 0·001) and e24UIE (P < 0·001) were significantly higher in men. e24UIE was relatively similar to 24UIE. However, when e24UIE was calculated from UIC in the first void, it was about 15 % lower than 24UIE (P < 0·001). iHr was lowest in the morning and highest in the afternoon. Median iHr was higher in men (7·4 v. 5·3 µg/h, P < 0·001). The variability of UIE was higher within individuals than between individuals. This study suggests that most time points for estimation of individual 24UIE are appropriate, but they should preferably not be collected in the first void.

Long-term ambient air pollution and venous thromboembolism in a population-based Swedish cohort

Air pollution is a major contributor to the global burden of disease and has been linked to several diseases and conditions, including cardiovascular disease. The biological mechanisms are related to inflammation and increased coagulability, factors that play an important role in the pathogenesis of venous thromboembolism (VTE, i.e., deep vein thrombosis or pulmonary embolism). This study investigates if long-term exposure to air pollution is associated with increased VTE incidence. The study followed 29 408 participants from the Malmö Diet and Cancer (MDC) cohort, which consists of adults aged 44-74 recruited in Malmö, Sweden between 1991 and 1996. For each participant, annual mean residential exposures to particulate matter <2.5 μg (PM_2.5) and <10 μg (PM₁₀), nitrogen oxides (NO_x) and black carbon (BC) from 1990 up to 2016 were calculated. Associations with VTE were analysed using Cox proportional hazard models for air pollution in the year of the VTE event (lag0) and the mean of the prior 1-10 years (lag1-10). Annual air pollution exposures for the full follow-up period had the following means: 10.8 μg/m³ for PM_2.5, 15.8 μg/m³ for PM₁₀, 27.7 μg/m³ for NO_x, and 0.96 μg/m³ for BC. The mean follow-up period was 19.5 years, with 1418 incident VTE events recorded during this period. Exposure to lag1-10 PM_2.5 was associated with an increased risk of VTE (HR 1.17 (95%CI 1.01-1.37)) per interquartile range (IQR) of 1.2 μg/m³ increase in PM_2.5 exposure. No significant associations were found between other pollutants or lag0 PM_2.5 and incident VTE. When VTE was divided into specific diagnoses, associations with lag1-10 PM_2.5 exposure were similarly positive for deep vein thrombosis but not for pulmonary embolism. Results persisted in sensitivity analyses and in multi-pollutant models. Long-term exposure to moderate concentrations of ambient PM_2.5 was associated with increased risks of VTE in the general population in Sweden.

The variability of arsenic in blood and urine of humans

BACKGROUND

Humans are exposed to inorganic and organic arsenic. The total arsenic (As) concentration in urine is a commonly used biomarker of exposure. However, little is known about variability of As in biological fluids and the diurnal variation of As excretion.

OBJECTIVES

Main objectives were to assess the variability of As in urine, plasma (P-As), whole blood (B-As), and the blood cell fraction (C-As), and to assess diurnal variation of As excretion.

METHODS

Six urine samples were collected at fixed times during 24 h on two different days around one week apart among 29 men and 31 women. Blood samples were collected when the morning urine samples were delivered. The intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC) was calculated as the ratio of the between-individuals variance to the total observed variance.

RESULTS

Geometric mean (GM) 24 h urinary excretions of As (U-As_24 h) were 41 and 39 µg/24 h on the two days of sampling. Concentrations of B-As, P-As and C-As were highly correlated with U-As_24 h and As in first void morning urine. No statistically significant differences were observed for the urinary As excretion rate between the different sampling times. A high ICC was observed for As in the cellular blood fraction (0.803), while ICC for first morning urine corrected for creatine was low (0.316).

CONCLUSIONS

The study suggests that C-As is the most reliable biomarker for use in exposure assessment of individual exposure. Morning urine samples have low reliability for such use. No apparent diurnal variation was observed in the urinary As excretion rate.

Long-term exposure to traffic noise and risk of incident colon cancer: A pooled study of eleven Nordic cohorts

Background Colon cancer incidence is rising globally, and factors pertaining to urbanization have been proposed involved in this development. Traffic noise may increase colon cancer risk by causing sleep disturbance and stress, thereby inducing known colon cancer risk-factors, e.g. obesity, diabetes, physical inactivity, and alcohol consumption, but few studies have examined this. Objectives The objective of this study was to investigate the association between traffic noise and colon cancer (all, proximal, distal) in a pooled population of 11 Nordic cohorts, totaling 155,203 persons. Methods We identified residential address history and estimated road, railway, and aircraft noise, as well as air pollution, for all addresses, using similar exposure models across cohorts. Colon cancer cases were identified through national registries. We analyzed data using Cox Proportional Hazards Models, adjusting main models for harmonized sociodemographic and lifestyle data. Results During follow-up (median 18.8 years), 2757 colon cancer cases developed. We found a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.05 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.99-1.10) per 10-dB higher 5-year mean time-weighted road traffic noise. In sub-type analyses, the association seemed confined to distal colon cancer: HR 1.06 (95% CI: 0.98-1.14). Railway and aircraft noise was not associated with colon cancer, albeit there was some indication in sub-type analyses that railway noise may also be associated with distal colon cancer. In interaction-analyses, the association between road traffic noise and colon cancer was strongest among obese persons and those with high NO₂-exposure. Discussion A prominent study strength is the large population with harmonized data across eleven cohorts, and the complete address-history during follow-up. However, each cohort estimated noise independently, and only at the most exposed façade, which may introduce exposure misclassification. Despite this, the results of this pooled study suggest that traffic noise may be a risk factor for colon cancer, especially of distal origin.

Long-Term Exposure to Transportation Noise and Ischemic Heart Disease: A Pooled Analysis of Nine Scandinavian Cohorts

BACKGROUND

Transportation noise may induce cardiovascular disease, but the public health implications are unclear.

OBJECTIVES

The study aimed to assess exposure-response relationships for different transportation noise sources and ischemic heart disease (IHD), including subtypes.

METHODS

Pooled analyses were performed of nine cohorts from Denmark and Sweden, together including 132,801 subjects. Time-weighted long-term exposure to road, railway, and aircraft noise, as well as air pollution, was estimated based on residential histories. Hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated using Cox proportional hazards models following adjustment for lifestyle and socioeconomic risk factors.

RESULTS

A total of 22,459 incident cases of IHD were identified during follow-up from national patient and mortality registers, including 7,682 cases of myocardial infarction. The adjusted HR for IHD was 1.03 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.00, 1.05] per 10 dB Lden for both road and railway noise exposure during 5 y prior to the event. Higher risks were indicated for IHD excluding angina pectoris cases, with HRs of 1.06 (95% CI: 1.03, 1.08) and 1.05 (95% CI: 1.01, 1.08) per 10 dB Lden for road and railway noise, respectively. Corresponding HRs for myocardial infarction were 1.02 (95% CI: 0.99, 1.05) and 1.04 (95% CI: 0.99, 1.08). Increased risks were observed for aircraft noise but without clear exposure-response relations. A threshold at around 55 dB Lden was suggested in the exposure-response relation for road traffic noise and IHD.

DISCUSSION

Exposure to road, railway, and aircraft noise in the prior 5 y was associated with an increased risk of IHD, particularly after exclusion of angina pectoris cases, which are less well identified in the registries. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP10745.

Long-term exposure to air pollution, coronary artery calcification, and carotid artery plaques in the population-based Swedish SCAPIS Gothenburg cohort

Long-term exposure to air pollution is associated with cardiovascular events. A main suggested mechanism is that air pollution accelerates the progression of atherosclerosis, yet current evidence is inconsistent regarding the association between air pollution and coronary artery and carotid artery atherosclerosis, which are well-established causes of myocardial infarction and stroke. We studied associations between low levels of long-term air pollution, coronary artery calcium (CAC) score, and the prevalence and area of carotid artery plaques, in a middle-aged population-based cohort. The Swedish CArdioPulmonary bioImage Study (SCAPIS) Gothenburg cohort was recruited during 2013-2017 and thoroughly examined for cardiovascular risk factors, including computed tomography of the heart and ultrasonography of the carotid arteries. In 5070 participants (age 50-64 years), yearly residential exposures to air pollution (PM_2.5, PM₁₀, PM_coarse, NO_x, and exhaust-specific PM_2.5 1990-2015) were estimated using high-resolution dispersion models. We used Poisson regression to examine associations between long-term (26 years' mean) exposure to air pollutants and CAC score, and prevalence of carotid artery plaques, adjusted for potential confounders. Among participants with carotid artery plaques, we also examined the association with plaque area using linear regression. Mean exposure to PM_2.5 was low by international standards (8.5 μg/m³). There were no consistent associations between long-term total PM_2.5 exposure and CAC score or presence of carotid artery plaques, but an association between total PM_2.5 and larger plaque area in participants with carotid plaques. Associations with traffic-related air pollutants were consistently positive for both a high CAC score and bilateral carotid artery plaques. These associations were independent of road traffic noise. We found stronger associations among men and participants with cardiovascular risk factors. The results lend some support to atherosclerosis as a main modifiable pathway between low levels of traffic-related ambient air pollution and cardiovascular disease, especially in vulnerable individuals.

Variability of lead in urine and blood in healthy individuals

BACKGROUND

Lead is a non-essential toxic trace element. Lead in blood (BPb) is the most common biomarker of lead exposure but lead in urine (UPb) has also been used. There is, however, limited data on the variability of UPb in the general population and the association with BPb.

OBJECTIVES

Our aims were to assess variability of lead in repeated blood and urine samples. The diurnal variation of UPb was also examined as well as associations with BPb.

METHODS

We established an openly available biobank including 60 healthy non-smoking individuals, 29 men and 31 women, 21-64 years of age (median 31 years), with repeated sampling of blood and urine. Timed urine samples were collected at six fixed time points in two 24 h periods, about one week apart, and adjusted for creatinine and specific gravity (SG). BPb and UPb were analyzed by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. The within- and between-individual variabilities and intra-class correlation coefficients (ICCs; ratios of the between-individual to total observed variances) were calculated using mixed-effects models.

RESULTS

The ICCs for UPb samples were mostly above 0.5, when adjusted for creatinine or SG, and higher for overnight samples compared with daytime samples. The highest ICCs were obtained for BPb (ICC = 0.97) and for urine samples corrected for dilution by SG or creatinine. The ICC was 0.66 for overnight samples adjusted for creatinine. High correlations with BPb were found for 24 h UPb (r_s = 0.77) and overnight samples, e.g. r_s = 0.74 when adjusted for SG. There was diurnal variation of UPb with lowest excretion rate in overnight samples. There was also a significant association between the Pb excretion rate and urinary flow rate.

CONCLUSIONS

In addition to BPb, UPb adjusted for creatinine or SG seems to be a useful biomarker for exposure assessment in epidemiological studies.

Low-level exposure to lead, cadmium and mercury, and histopathological findings in kidney biopsies

BACKGROUND

Lead (Pb), cadmium (Cd) and mercury (Hg) are all nephrotoxic metals, and a large part of the body burden of Cd and Hg is found in the kidneys. There are, however, few studies on associations between exposure to these toxic metals and renal biopsy findings, and none at low-level exposure.

AIM

To examine the hypothesis that low-level concentration of Pb, Cd or Hg in the kidneys is associated with histopathological changes in the kidneys.

METHODS

We determined concentrations of Pb, Cd and Hg in kidney, blood and urine in 109 healthy kidney donors, aged 24-70 years. The renal biopsies were scored according to the Banff classification regarding tubular atrophy, interstitial fibrosis, glomerulosclerosis, arteriosclerosis, and arteriolohyalinosis. Kidney function was assessed based on glomerular filtration rate (GFR) as well as urinary excretion of albumin, low molecular weight proteins, kidney injury molecule 1 and N-acetylglucose aminidase. Associations between metal concentrations and histopathological changes, were assessed in models also including age, sex and smoking.

RESULTS

The median kidney concentrations of Pb, Cd and Hg were 0.08, 13 and 0.21 μg/g, respectively. There were signs of tubular atrophy in 63%, interstitial fibrosis in 21%, glomerulosclerosis in 71%, arteriosclerosis in 47%, and arteriolohyalinosis in 36% of the donors, but, as could be expected, the histopathological findings were limited, mostly Banff grade 1. In models adjusted for age, sex and smoking, kidney Cd was positively associated with tubular atrophy (p = 0.03) and possibly with arteriolohyalinosis (p = 0.06). Kidney Hg was associated with arteriosclerosis (p = 0.004).

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

The results suggest that even low levels of Cd in the kidney can induce a mild degree of tubular atrophy. This is in line with previous findings at high-level Cd exposure. The association between kidney Hg and renal arteriosclerosis was unexpected, and may be a chance finding.

A controlled chamber study of effects of exposure to diesel exhaust particles and noise on heart rate variability and endothelial function

BACKGROUND

Adverse cardiovascular effects are associated with both diesel exhaust and road traffic noise, but these exposures are hard to disentangle epidemiologically. We used an experimental setup to evaluate the impact of diesel exhaust particles and traffic noise, alone and combined, on intermediary outcomes related to the autonomic nervous system and increased cardiovascular risk.

METHODS

In a controlled chamber 18 healthy adults were exposed to four scenarios in a randomized cross-over fashion. Each exposure scenario consisted of either filtered (clean) air or diesel engine exhaust (particle mass concentrations around 300 µg/m³), and either low (46 dB(A)) or high (75 dB(A)) levels of traffic noise for 3 h at rest. ECG was recorded for 10-min periods before and during each exposure type, and frequency-domain heart rate variability (HRV) computed. Endothelial dysfunction and arterial stiffness were assessed after each exposure using EndoPAT 2000.

RESULTS

Compared to control exposure, HRV in the high frequency band decreased during exposure to diesel exhaust, both alone and combined with noise, but not during noise exposure only. These differences were more pronounced in women. We observed no synergistic effects of combined exposure, and no significant differences between exposure scenarios for other HRV indices, endothelial function or arterial stiffness.

CONCLUSION

Three-hour exposure to diesel exhaust, but not noise, was associated with decreased HRV in the high frequency band. This indicates activation of irritant receptor-mediated autonomic reflexes, a possible mechanism for the cardiovascular risks of diesel exposure. There was no effect on endothelial dysfunction or arterial stiffness after exposure.

Air pollution and biomarkers of cardiovascular disease and inflammation in the Malmö Diet and Cancer cohort

INTRODUCTION

Air pollution is associated with increased risk of cardiovascular disease, possibly through chronic systemic inflammation that promotes the progression of atherosclerosis and the risk of cardiovascular events. This study aimed to investigate the associations between air pollution and established biomarkers of inflammation and cardiovascular disease.

METHODS

The Cardiovascular Subcohort of the Malmö Diet and Cancer cohort includes 6103 participants from the general population of Malmö, Sweden. The participants were recruited 1991-1994. Annual mean residential exposure to particulate matter < 2.5 and < 10 μm (PM_2.5 and PM₁₀), and nitrogen oxides (NO_x) at year of recruitment were assigned from dispersion models. Blood samples collected at recruitment, including blood cell counts, and biomarkers (lymphocyte- and neutrophil counts, C-reactive protein (CRP), soluble urokinase-type plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR), lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A₂ (Lp-PLA₂), ceruloplasmin, orosomucoid, haptoglobin, complement-C3, and alpha-1-antitrypsin) were analyzed. Multiple linear regression models were used to investigate the cross-sectional associations between air pollutants and biomarkers.

RESULTS

The mean annual exposure levels in the cohort were only slightly or moderately above the new WHO guidelines of 5 μg/m³ PM_2.5 (10.5 μg/m³ PM_2.5). Residential PM_2.5 exposure was associated with increased levels of ceruloplasmin, orosomucoid, C3, alpha-1-antitrypsin, haptoglobin, Lp-PLA₂ and the neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio. Ceruloplasmin, orosomucoid, C3 and alpha-1-antitrypsin were also positively associated with PM₁₀. There were no associations between air pollutants and suPAR, leukocyte counts or CRP. The associations between particles and biomarkers were still significant after removing outliers and adjustment for CRP levels. The associations were more prominent in smokers.

CONCLUSION

Long-term residential exposure to moderate levels of particulate air pollution was associated with several biomarkers of inflammation and cardiovascular disease. This supports inflammation as a mechanism behind the association between air pollution and cardiovascular disease.

Review of cadmium exposure and smoking-independent effects on atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease in the general population

BACKGROUND

Exposure to cadmium (Cd) via food and smoking is associated with an increased risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). Blood and urine levels of Cd are established biomarkers of exposure.

OBJECTIVES

To review (1) the smoking-independent associations between Cd exposure and ASCVD, including the possible presence of a nonlinear dose-response relationship with Cd exposure and (2) the causal effects of Cd exposure on different stages of atherosclerosis.

METHODS

Narrative review.

RESULTS

Cd confers increased risk of ASCVD and asymptomatic atherosclerosis in the carotid and coronary arteries above B-Cd >0.5 μg/L or U-Cd >0.5 μg/g creatinine, but it has not been shown below a threshold of these exposure levels. Adjustment for smoking does not exclude the possibility of residual confounding, but several studies in never-smoking cohorts have shown associations between Cd and ASCVD, and experimental studies have demonstrated pro-atherosclerotic effects of Cd. Cd accumulates in arterial walls and atherosclerotic plaques, reaching levels shown to have proatherosclerotic effects. Suggested early effects are increased subendothelial retention of atherogenic lipoproteins, which become oxidized, and endothelial dysfunction and damage with increased permeability for monocytes, which in the intima turn to macrophages and then to foam cells. Later, Cd may contribute to plaque rupture and erosion by endothelial apoptosis and degradation of the fibrous cap. Finally, by having prothrombotic and antifibrinolytic effects, the CVD risk may be further increased.

CONCLUSIONS

There is strong evidence that Cd causes ASCVD above a suggested exposure level via mechanisms in early as well as the late stages of atherosclerotic disease.

Long-term exposure to particulate air pollution and black carbon in relation to natural and cause-specific mortality: a multicohort study in Sweden

OBJECTIVES

To estimate concentration-response relationships for particulate matter (PM) and black carbon (BC) in relation to mortality in cohorts from three Swedish cities with comparatively low pollutant levels.

SETTING

Cohorts from Gothenburg, Stockholm and Umeå, Sweden.

DESIGN

High-resolution dispersion models were used to estimate annual mean concentrations of PM with aerodynamic diameter ≤10 µm (PM10) and ≤2.5 µm (PM2.5), and BC, at individual addresses during each year of follow-up, 1990-2011. Moving averages were calculated for the time windows 1-5 years (lag1-5) and 6-10 years (lag6-10) preceding the outcome. Cause-specific mortality data were obtained from the national cause of death registry. Cohort-specific HRs were estimated using Cox regression models and then meta-analysed including a random effect of cohort.

PARTICIPANTS

During the study period, 7 340 cases of natural mortality, 2 755 cases of cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality and 817 cases of respiratory and lung cancer mortality were observed among in total 68 679 individuals and 689 813 person-years of follow-up.

RESULTS

Both PM10 (range: 6.3-41.9 µg/m³) and BC (range: 0.2-6.8 µg/m³) were associated with natural mortality showing 17% (95% CI 6% to 31%) and 9% (95% CI 0% to 18%) increased risks per 10 µg/m³ and 1 µg/m³ of lag1-5 exposure, respectively. For PM2.5 (range: 4.0-22.4 µg/m³), the estimated increase was 13% per 5 µg/m³, but less precise (95% CI -9% to 40%). Estimates for CVD mortality appeared higher for both PM10 and PM2.5. No association was observed with respiratory mortality.

CONCLUSION

The results support an effect of long-term air pollution on natural mortality and mortality in CVD with high relative risks also at low exposure levels. These findings are relevant for future decisions concerning air quality policies.

Is Cadmium a Risk Factor for Breast Cancer - Results from a Nested Case-Control Study Using Data from the Malmö Diet and Cancer Study

BACKGROUND

Some studies have shown that cadmium (Cd) is associated with breast cancer risk. One hypothesis is that Cd has estrogen-like properties. This case-control study investigated the association between breast cancer risk and blood Cd (BCd) levels.

METHODS

All breast cancers in the Malmö Diet and Cancer cohort were identified through linkage to the Swedish Cancer Registry, baseline (1991-1996) through 2014. Two controls per case were selected from the same cohort. BCd was analyzed at baseline. Associations were analyzed using logistic regression.

RESULTS

Mean BCd was 0.51 μg/L among 1,274 cases and 0.46 among 2,572 controls. There was an overall increased risk of breast cancer [OR, 1.18; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.05-1.36] per μg/L of BCd. An increased risk was, however, only found at high BCd [OR, 1.34 (95% CI, 1.05-1.73)] for BCd more than 1.20 μg/L. The group with the highest BCd was mainly smokers. A spline indicated that at BCd less than 1.0 μg/L, the OR was not increased. The association with BCd was stronger in current smokers and at body mass index (BMI) above 25, while no modification due to receptor status was found.

CONCLUSIONS

The results indicated increased risk of breast cancer only for high Cd exposure, which occurred mainly among smokers. This made it difficult to disentangle the effects of smoking and Cd, despite inclusion of smoking habits in the models.

IMPACT

This study provides support for reducing Cd exposure through smoking cessation and dietary choice. On the population level, preventive measures against Cd pollution are warranted.

Cadmium Exposure and Coronary Artery Atherosclerosis: A Cross-Sectional Population-Based Study of Swedish Middle-Aged Adults

BACKGROUND

The general population is ubiquitously exposed to the toxic metal cadmium through the diet and smoking. Cadmium exposure is associated with increased morbidity and mortality in myocardial infarction and stroke. Atherosclerosis is the main underlying mechanism of myocardial infarction. However, associations between cadmium and coronary artery atherosclerosis have not been examined.

OBJECTIVES

Our study sought to examine the hypothesis that blood cadmium (B-Cd) is positively associated with coronary artery calcification, as a measure of coronary artery atherosclerosis in the population-based Swedish SCAPIS study.

METHODS

Our analysis included 5,627 individuals (51% women), age 50-64 y, enrolled from 2013 to 2018. The coronary artery calcium score (CACS) was obtained from computed tomography. Blood cadmium was determined by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). Associations between B-Cd and coronary artery calcium score (CACS Agatston score) were evaluated using prevalence ratios (PRs) in models adjusted for sex, age, smoking, hypertension, diabetes, low-density cholesterol/high-density cholesterol ratio, and family history.

RESULTS

The median B-Cd concentration was 0.24μg/L. The prevalence of positive coronary artery calcium (CACS>0) was 41% and the prevalence of CACS≥100 was 13%. Relative to the lowest quartile (Q) of B-Cd (<0.16μg/L), the highest quartile (median 0.63μg/L) was associated with a small but significant increase in CACS>0 (PR 1.1; 95% CI: 1.0, 1.3), and a greater relative increase in CACS≥100 (PR 1.6; 95% CI: 1.3, 2.0). When restricted to 2,446 never-smokers, corresponding PRs were 1.1 (95% CI 0.9, 1.3) for CACS>0 (63 cases in Q4) and 1.7 (95% CI 1.1, 2.7) for CACS≥100 (17 cases in Q4).

DISCUSSION

Blood cadmium in the highest quartile was associated with CACS in a general population sample with low to moderate cadmium exposure. This supports the hypothesis that atherosclerosis is an important mechanism underlying the associations between cadmium and incident cardiovascular disease. The findings suggest that public health measures to reduce cadmium exposure are warranted. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP8523.

Variability of Urinary Creatinine in Healthy Individuals

Many urinary biomarkers are adjusted for dilution using creatinine or specific gravity. The aim was to evaluate the variability of creatinine excretion, in 24 h and spot samples, and to describe an openly available variability biobank. Urine and blood samples were collected from 60 healthy non-smoking adults, 29 men and 31 women. All urine was collected at six time points during two 24 h periods. Blood samples were also collected twice and stored frozen. Analyses of creatinine in urine was performed in fresh urine using an enzymatic method. For creatinine in urine, the intra-class correlation (ICC) was calculated for 24 h urine and spot samples. Diurnal variability was examined, as well as association with urinary flow rate. The creatinine excretion rate was lowest in overnight samples and relatively constant in the other five samples. The creatinine excretion rate in each individual was positively correlated with urinary flow rate. The creatinine concentration was highest in the overnight sample and at 09:30. For 24 h samples the ICC was 0.64, for overnight samples it was 0.5, and for all spot samples, it was much lower. The ICC for urinary creatinine depends on the time of day of sampling. Frozen samples from this variability biobank are open for researchers examining normal variability of their favorite biomarker(s).

Normal variability of 22 elements in 24-hour urine samples - Results from a biobank from healthy non-smoking adults

BACKGROUND

Urine is often used for biomonitoring the exposure to elements. However, most studies report concentrations in spot urine samples, which may not accurately mirror the "gold standard" of complete 24-h (24 h) urine samples. There are relatively few data published for 24 h samples, and little information on the within- and between person variability.

OBJECTIVES

The present study aimed at assessing variability within and between individuals in 24 h excretion for a number of elements in adults from the general population and the typical 24 h excretion of these elements. In addition, we assessed concentrations adjusted for creatinine and specific gravity (SG), and associations between elements.

METHODS

60 healthy non-smokers (31 women and 29 men) from Sweden, aged 21-64 years, collected all urine during 24 h (split into six separate samples) on two occasions, about one week apart. Concentrations of As, Br, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, Hg, Li, Mn, Mo, Ni, P, Pb, S, Sb, Se, Sn, U, V, W, and Zn in urine were analyzed by inductively coupled plasma sector-field mass spectrometry (ICP-SF-MS) and 24 h excretion rates were calculated for each day. The ratio of between-individual variance and the total variance, the intra-class correlation (ICC) was calculated based on natural log-transformed 24 h excretion. Correlation coefficients were calculated between excretion rates (mass/24 h), and concentrations adjusted for creatinine and SG.

RESULTS

Geometric means (GM), and 90-percentiles are presented for each element. The 24 h excretion was higher in men than in women for most elements, and the difference was statistically significant for Cr, Cu, Fe, Li, P, Pb, S, Se, U, V, and Zn. However, for Cd and Co, the excretion was higher in women. Variability between days was low for Cd, Co, Hg, Pb, Sn, Se, V, and Zn (ICC 0.75-0.90), highest for Cr (ICC = 0.3) and Sb (ICC = 0.18), and moderate for the other elements. Spearman's rank correlation coefficients were about 0.8-0.9 for 17 elements, and 0.3-0.7 for Br, Cu, P, S, Se. Excretion of P and S were highly correlated, and also associated with excretion of most of the other elements, especially Cu, Se, V, and Zn. A high correlation was also found between As and Hg, between Mo and W, as well as between Cr, Fe and Mn.

CONCLUSIONS

These data present normal variability of 24 h excretion of a number of elements, and can also be used as updated reference levels for elements with no or limited previous literature available. Information on variability within- and between individuals is important to know when designing studies with urine levels of elements used as exposure biomarker in studies of associations with health outcomes.

Low-level cadmium exposure is associated with decreased cortical thickness, cortical area and trabecular bone volume fraction in elderly men: The MrOS Sweden study

It is well known that high-level exposure to cadmium can cause bone disease such as osteoporosis, osteomalacia and fractures. However, the effect of low-level exposure, as found in the general population (mainly derived from diet and smoking), has only been assessed recently. The aim of this study was to examine if cadmium exposure in the general Swedish population causes other bone changes than decreased areal bone mineral density as measured by traditional DXA technology, e.g. changes in microstructure and geometry, such as cortical thickness or area, cortical porosity and trabecular bone volume. The study population consisted of 444 men, aged 70-81 years at inclusion year 2002-2004, from the Swedish cohort of the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men Study (MrOS). Cadmium was analyzed in baseline urine samples (U-Cd). Different parameters of bone geometry and microstructure were measured at the distal tibia at follow-up in 2009, including examination with high-resolution peripheral quantitative computed tomography (HR-pQCT). Associations between bone parameters and U-Cd in tertiles were estimated in multivariable analyses, including potential confounding factors (age, smoking, BMI, and physical activity). We found significant associations between U-Cd and several bone geometry or microstructure parameters, with 9% lower cortical thickness (p = 0.03), 7% lower cortical area (p = 0.04), and 5% lower trabecular bone volume fraction (p = 0.02) in the third tertile of U-Cd, using the first tertile as the reference. Furthermore, significant negative associations were found between log-transformed U-Cd and cortical thickness, cortical area, trabecular number and trabecular bone volume fraction, and a significant positive association with trabecular separation. The results indicate that low-level Cd exposure in the general population has negative effects on both cortical and trabecular bone.

Smoking-Induced Risk of Osteoporosis Is Partly Mediated by Cadmium From Tobacco Smoke: The MrOS Sweden Study

Cigarette smoking is a risk factor for osteoporosis and bone fracture. Moreover, smoking causes exposure to cadmium, which is a known risk factor for osteoporosis. It is hypothesized that part of smoking-induced osteoporosis may be mediated via cadmium from tobacco smoke. We investigated this hypothesis using mediation analysis in a Swedish cohort of elderly men. This study was performed in 886 elderly men from the Swedish cohort of the Osteoporotic Fractures in Men (MrOS) study. Urinary samples, bone mineral density (BMD), smoking data, and other background information were obtained at baseline in 2002-2004. Urinary cadmium was analyzed in baseline samples and adjusted for creatinine. The cohort was followed until August 2018 for fracture incidence, based on the X-ray register. Mediation analysis was conducted to evaluate the indirect effect (via cadmium) of smoking on both BMD and fractures. Time to first fracture was analyzed using the accelerated failure time (AFT) model and Aalen's additive hazard model. The mean level of urinary cadmium was 0.25 μg/g creatinine. There were significant inverse associations between smoking and total body, total hip, and trochanter BMD. The indirect effects via cadmium were estimated to be 43% of the total effects of smoking for whole-body BMD, and even more for total hip and trochanter BMD. Smoking was also associated with higher risk of all fractures and major osteoporosis fractures. The indirect effects via cadmium were largest in nonvertebral osteoporosis fractures and hip fractures, constituting at least one-half of the total effects, in both the AFT and Aalen's model. The findings in this study provide evidence that cadmium exposure from tobacco smoke plays an important role in smoking-induced osteoporosis © 2020 The Authors. Journal of Bone and Mineral Research published by American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Associations between perfluoroalkyl substances and serum lipids in a Swedish adult population with contaminated drinking water

BACKGROUND

Exposures to perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) have shown positive associations with serum lipids in previous studies. While many studies on lipids investigated associations with perfluorooctane sulfonic acid (PFOS) and perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA), there are only a few studies regarding other PFAS, such as perfluorohexane sulfonic acid (PFHxS). The purpose of the current study is to investigate if associations with serum lipids were present, not only for serum PFOS and PFOA, but also for PFHxS, and if the associations with PFAS remained also in a comparison based only on residency in areas with contrasting exposure to PFAS.

METHODS

1945 adults aged 20-60 were included from Ronneby, Sweden, a municipality where one out of two waterworks had been heavily contaminated from aqueous fire-fighting foams, and from a nearby control area. The exposure was categorized based on either been living in areas with contrasting PFAS exposure or based on the actual serum PFAS measurements. Regression analyses of serum lipids were fitted against serum PFAS levels, percentile groups, smooth splines and between exposed and reference areas, adjusting for age, sex and BMI.

RESULTS

Drinking water contamination caused high serum levels of PFOS (median 157 ng/ml) and PFHxS (median 136 ng/ml) and PFOA (median 8.6 ng/ml). These serum PFAS levels in the exposed groups were 5 to 100-fold higher than in the controls. In this population with mixed PFAS exposure, predominantly PFOS and PFHxS, PFAS exposure were positively associated with serum lipids. This was observed both when quantifying exposure as contrast between exposed and controls, and in terms of serum PFAS. Due to high correlations between each PFAS, we cannot separate them.

CONCLUSIONS

In conclusion, the present study provides further evidence of a causal association between PFAS and serum lipids, especially for PFHxS.

Blood cadmium concentration and risk of subarachnoid haemorrhage

BACKGROUND

Cadmium is a toxic metal and exposure is mainly from diet and tobacco smoke. Cadmium is accumulated in blood vessels and may reduce synthesis of procollagen and inhibit proliferation of vascular smooth muscle cells. High blood cadmium has been associated with increased risk of myocardial infarction, stroke and unruptured intracranial aneurysms. We examined whether blood cadmium increase the risk of subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH).

METHODS

The Malmö Diet and Cancer cohort (n = 28,449) was examined in 1991-1996 and blood samples were taken. Incidence of SAH was followed up to 2014. Cadmium was measured in stored blood samples from incident SAH cases and matched controls (n = 93 vs n = 276) and odds ratio (OR) for SAH was assessed in a nested case control design.

RESULTS

Subjects with cadmium concentration in the highest quartile had increased risk of SAH compared to those in the first quartile (OR: 3.22, 95%CI: 1.67-6.22). However, after adjusting for smoking, results were weakened and non-significant (OR: 1.57, 95%CI: 0.51-4.80).

CONCLUSIONS

Cadmium concentration was associated with increased risk of SAH but this association was largely explained by smoking. Whether cadmium in tobacco may contribute to the vascular pathology and increased risk of SAH in smokers should be further studied.

Blood Lead Levels and Risk of Atherosclerosis in the Carotid Artery: Results from a Swedish Cohort

BACKGROUND

Lead exposure has been associated with increased incidence of adverse clinical cardiovascular outcomes. Atherosclerosis has been suggested as one of the underlying mechanisms, and findings from experimental studies support this, but human data are scarce.

OBJECTIVES

Our objective was to determine the association between environmental lead exposure based on blood lead (B-Pb) concentrations and the prevalence of atherosclerotic plaque in the carotid artery.

METHODS

We used cross-sectional data from the Malmö Diet and Cancer Study cardiovascular cohort (MDCS-CC; recruitment in 1991-1994) covering 4,172 middle-aged men and women. B-Pb at baseline, measured by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry, was used as the exposure biomarker. The presence of atherosclerotic plaque in the carotid artery was determined by B-mode ultrasonography. We used logistic regression to estimate odds ratios (ORs) for prevalence of plaque in the carotid artery according to B-Pb quartiles.

RESULTS

The median B-Pb was 25μg/L (range: 1.5-258), and 36% of the cohort had any atherosclerotic plaque. After controlling for confounders and known cardiovascular risk factors, the OR for prevalence of plaque in the highest quartile (Q4) of B-Pb compared with the lowest quartile (Q1) was 1.35 (95% CI: 1.09, 1.66) in the total group, 1.58 (95% CI: 1.20, 2.08) among women, and 1.18 (95% CI: 0.83, 1.69) among men. Among women, associations were limited to those who were postmenopausal [OR for Q4 vs. Q1=1.72 (95% CI: 1.26, 2.34) vs. OR=0.96 (95% CI: 0.49, 1.89 in premenopausal women)]. Associations were weak and nonsignificant in never-smokers [OR for Q4 vs. Q1=1.14 (95% CI: 0.81, 1.61)].

DISCUSSION

Our study shows an association between B-Pb concentrations and occurrence of atherosclerotic plaque in the carotid artery, adding evidence for an underlying pro-atherogenic role of lead in cardiovascular disease. Associations appeared to be limited to postmenopausal (vs. premenopausal) women. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP5057.

Long-Term Exposure to Particulate Air Pollution, Black Carbon, and Their Source Components in Relation to Ischemic Heart Disease and Stroke

BACKGROUND

Long-term exposure to particulate matter (PM) in ambient air has been associated with cardiovascular mortality, but few studies have considered incident disease in relation to PM from different sources.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to study associations between long-term exposure to different types of PM and sources, and incident ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke in three Swedish cities.

METHODS

Based on detailed emission databases, monitoring data, and high-resolution dispersion models, we calculated source contributions to PM with aerodynamic diameter ≤10μm (PM10), PM with aerodynamic diameter ≤2.5μm (PM2.5), and black carbon (BC) from road wear, traffic exhaust, residential heating, and other sources in Gothenburg, Stockholm, and Umeå. Registry data for participants from four cohorts were used to obtain incidence of IHD and stroke for first hospitalization or death. We constructed time windows of exposure for same-year, 1- to 5-y, and 6- to 10-y averages preceding incidence from annual averages at residential addresses. Risk estimates were based on random effects meta-analyses of cohort-specific Cox proportional hazard models.

RESULTS

We observed 5,166 and 3,119 incident IHD and stroke cases, respectively, in 114,758 participants. Overall, few consistent associations were observed between the different air pollution measures and IHD or stroke incidence. However, same-year levels of ambient locally emitted BC (range: 0.01-4.6 μg/m3) were associated with a 4.0% higher risk of incident stroke per interquartile range (IQR), 0.30 μg/m3 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.04, 7.8]. This association was primarily related to BC from traffic exhaust. PM10 (range: 4.4-52 μg/m3) and PM2.5 (range: 2.9-22 μg/m3) were not associated with stroke. Associations with incident IHD were observed only for PM2.5 exposure from residential heating.

DISCUSSION

Few consistent associations were observed between different particulate components and IHD or stroke. However, long-term residential exposure to locally emitted BC from traffic exhaust was associated with stroke incidence. The comparatively low exposure levels may have contributed to the paucity of associations. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP4757.

Smoking-induced risk of future cardiovascular disease is partly mediated by cadmium in tobacco: Malmö Diet and Cancer Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Smoking is a strong risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD) and causes exposure to cadmium, which is a pro-atherosclerotic metal. Cadmium exposure has also been shown to increase the risk of CVD, even after adjustment for smoking. Our hypothesis was that part of the risk of CVD in smokers may be mediated by cadmium exposure from tobacco smoke. We examined this hypothesis in a mediation analysis, trying to assess how much of the smoking-induced CVD risk could be explained via cadmium.

METHODS

We used prospective data on CVD (incidence and mortality) in a Swedish population-based cohort of 4304 middle-aged men and women (the Malmö Diet and Cancer Study). Blood cadmium was analyzed in base-line samples from 1991, and clinical events were followed up for 16-19 years based on registry data. Mediation analysis was conducted to evaluate the indirect effect (via cadmium) of smoking on CVD. Survival was analyzed by the accelerated failure time (AFT) model and the Aalen additive hazard model.

RESULTS

The mean blood cadmium level in the study population was 0.43 μg/L (median 0.24 μg/L) and increased with recent and current smoking. As expected, shorter survival time (AFT model) and higher incidence rate (Aalen model) were found in current smokers for all CVD outcomes and this effect seemed to be partly mediated by cadmium. For the sum of acute myocardial infarction, bypass grafts and percutaneous coronary intervention, and death in ischemic heart disease, about half of the increased risk of such events in current smokers was mediated via cadmium, with similar results for the AFT and Aalen models.

CONCLUSIONS

Cadmium plays an important role in smoking-induced CVDs. This provides evidence for mechanisms and is of importance for both individuals and policy makers.

Impact on Population Health of Baltic Shipping Emissions

Emission of pollutants from shipping contributes to ambient air pollution. Our aim was to estimate exposure to particulate air pollution (PM_2.5) and health effects from shipping in countries around the Baltic Sea, as well as effects of the sulfur regulations for fuels enforced in 2015 by the Baltic Sulfur Emission Control Area (SECA). Yearly PM_2.5 emissions, from ship activity data and emission inventories in 2014 and 2016, were estimated. Concentrations and population exposure (0.1° × 0.1°) of PM_2.5 were estimated from a chemical transport mode, meteorology, and population density. Excess mortality and morbidity were estimated using established exposure-response (ER) functions. Estimated mean PM_2.5 per inhabitant from Baltic shipping was 0.22 µg/m³ in 2014 in ten countries, highest in Denmark (0.57 µg/m³). For the ER function with the steepest slope, the number of estimated extra premature deaths was 3413 in total, highest in Germany and lowest in Norway. It decreased by about 35% in 2016 (after SECA), a reduction of >1000 cases. In addition, 1500 non-fatal cases of ischemic heart disease and 1500 non-fatal cases of stroke in 2014 caused by Baltic shipping emissions were reduced by the same extent in 2016. In conclusion, PM_2.5 emissions from Baltic shipping, and resulting health impacts decreased substantially after the SECA regulations in 2015.

Biomarkers of blood cadmium and incidence of cardiovascular events in non-smokers: results from a population-based proteomics study

Background

Cadmium is a toxic metal with multiple adverse health effects, including risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). The mechanistic link between cadmium and CVD is unclear. Our aim was to examine the associations between blood cadmium (B-Cd) and 88 potential protein biomarkers of CVD.

Methods

B-Cd and 88 plasma proteins were measured in a community-based prospective cohort, the Malmö Diet and Cancer study. The primary analysis was performed in never smokers (n = 1725). Multiple linear regression was used with adjustments for age and sex, and correction for multiple comparisons using the false discovery rate method. Proteins significantly associated with B-Cd were replicated in long-term former smokers (n = 782). Significant proteins were then studied in relation to incidence of CVD (i.e., coronary events or ischemic stroke) in never smokers.

Results

Fifteen proteins were associated with B-Cd in never smokers. Eight of them were replicated in long-term former smokers. Kidney injury molecule-1, fibroblast growth factor-23 (FGF23), tumor necrosis factor receptor-2, matrix metalloproteinase-12, cathepsin L1, urokinase plasminogen activator receptor, C-C motif chemokine-3 (CCL3), and chemokine (C-X3-C motif) ligand-1 were associated with B-Cd both in never smokers and long-term former smokers. Except for CCL3 and FGF23, these proteins were also significantly associated with incidence of CVD.

Conclusions

B-Cd in non-smokers was associated with eight potential plasma biomarkers of CVD and kidney injury. The results suggest pathways for the associations between B-Cd and CVD and kidney injury.

Association of childhood pulmonary tuberculosis with exposure to indoor air pollution: a case control study

Background

Crude measures of exposure to indicate indoor air pollution have been associated with the increased risk for acquiring tuberculosis. Our study aimed to determine an association between childhood pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) and exposure to indoor air pollution (IAP), based on crude exposure predictors and directly sampled and modelled pollutant concentrations.

Methods

In this case control study, children diagnosed with PTB were compared to children without PTB. Questionnaires about children’s health; and house characteristics and activities (including household air pollution) and secondhand smoke (SHS) exposure were administered to caregivers of participants. A subset of the participants’ homes was sampled for measurements of PM₁₀ over a 24-h period (n = 105), and NO₂ over a period of 2 to 3 weeks (n = 82). IAP concentrations of PM₁₀ and NO₂ were estimated in the remaining homes using predictive models. Logistic regression was used to look for association between IAP concentrations, crude measures of IAP, and PTB.

Results

Of the 234 participants, 107 were cases and 127 were controls. Pollutants concentrations (μg/m³) for were PM₁₀ median: 48 (range: 6.6–241) and NO₂ median: 16.7 (range: 4.5–55). Day-to-day variability within- household was large. In multivariate models adjusted for age, sex, socioeconomic status, TB contact and HIV status, the crude exposure measures of pollution viz. cooking fuel type (clean or dirty fuel) and SHS showed positive non-significant associations with PTB. Presence of dampness in the household was a significant risk factor for childhood TB acquisition with aOR of 2.4 (95% CI: 1.1–5.0). The crude exposure predictors of indoor air pollution are less influenced by day-to-day variability. No risk was observed between pollutant concentrations and PTB in children for PM₁₀ and NO₂.

Conclusion

Our study suggests increased risk of childhood tuberculosis disease when children are exposed to SHS, dirty cooking fuel, and dampness in their homes. Yet, HIV status, age and TB contact are the most important risk factors of childhood PTB in this population.

Global, Regional, and Country-Specific Lifetime Risks of Stroke, 1990 and 2016

BACKGROUND

The lifetime risk of stroke has been calculated in a limited number of selected populations. We sought to estimate the lifetime risk of stroke at the regional, country, and global level using data from a comprehensive study of the prevalence of major diseases.

METHODS

We used the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2016 estimates of stroke incidence and the competing risks of death from any cause other than stroke to calculate the cumulative lifetime risks of first stroke, ischemic stroke, or hemorrhagic stroke among adults 25 years of age or older. Estimates of the lifetime risks in the years 1990 and 2016 were compared. Countries were categorized into quintiles of the sociodemographic index (SDI) used in the GBD Study, and the risks were compared across quintiles. Comparisons were made with the use of point estimates and uncertainty intervals representing the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles around the estimate.

RESULTS

The estimated global lifetime risk of stroke from the age of 25 years onward was 24.9% (95% uncertainty interval, 23.5 to 26.2); the risk among men was 24.7% (95% uncertainty interval, 23.3 to 26.0), and the risk among women was 25.1% (95% uncertainty interval, 23.7 to 26.5). The risk of ischemic stroke was 18.3%, and the risk of hemorrhagic stroke was 8.2%. In high-SDI, high-middle-SDI, and low-SDI countries, the estimated lifetime risk of stroke was 23.5%, 31.1% (highest risk), and 13.2% (lowest risk), respectively; the 95% uncertainty intervals did not overlap between these categories. The highest estimated lifetime risks of stroke according to GBD region were in East Asia (38.8%), Central Europe (31.7%), and Eastern Europe (31.6%), and the lowest risk was in eastern sub-Saharan Africa (11.8%). The mean global lifetime risk of stroke increased from 22.8% in 1990 to 24.9% in 2016, a relative increase of 8.9% (95% uncertainty interval, 6.2 to 11.5); the competing risk of death from any cause other than stroke was considered in this calculation.

CONCLUSIONS

In 2016, the global lifetime risk of stroke from the age of 25 years onward was approximately 25% among both men and women. There was geographic variation in the lifetime risk of stroke, with the highest risks in East Asia, Central Europe, and Eastern Europe. (Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.).

Road traffic noise abatement scenarios in Gothenburg 2015 - 2035

Exposure to high levels of road traffic noise at the most exposed building facade is increasing, both due to urbanization and due to overall traffic increase. This study investigated how different noise reduction measures would influence the noise exposure on a city-wide scale in Gothenburg, a city in Sweden with approximately 550,000 inhabitants. Noise exposure was estimated under several different scenarios for the period 2015-2035, using the standardized Nordic noise prediction method together with traffic flow measurements and population statistics. The scenarios were based on reducing speed limits, reducing traffic flows, introducing more electrically powered vehicles and introducing low-noise tires and pavements. The most effective measures were introducing low-noise tires or pavements, which in comparison to business as usual produced between 13% and 29% reduction in the number of inhabitants exposed above 55 dB equivalent level.

Blood Lead Levels and Decreased Kidney Function in a Population-Based Cohort

BACKGROUND

Environmental lead exposure has been associated with decreased kidney function, but evidence from large prospective cohort studies examining low exposure levels is scarce. We assessed the association of low levels of lead exposure with kidney function and kidney disease.

STUDY DESIGN

Prospective population-based cohort.

SETTING & PARTICIPANTS

4,341 individuals aged 46 to 67 years enrolled into the Malmö Diet and Cancer Study-Cardiovascular Cohort (1991-1994) and 2,567 individuals subsequently followed up (2007-2012).

PREDICTOR

Blood lead concentrations in quartiles (Q1-Q4) at baseline.

OUTCOMES

Change in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) between the baseline and follow-up visit based on serum creatinine level alone or in combination with cystatin C level. Chronic kidney disease (CKD) incidence (185 cases) through 2013 detected using a national registry.

MEASUREMENTS

Multivariable-adjusted linear regression models to assess associations between lead levels and eGFRs at baseline and follow-up and change in eGFRs over time. Cox regression was used to examine associations between lead levels and CKD incidence. Validation of 100 randomly selected CKD cases showed very good agreement between registry data and medical records and laboratory data.

RESULTS

At baseline, 60% of study participants were women, mean age was 57 years, and median lead level was 25 (range, 1.5-258) μg/L. After a mean of 16 years of follow-up, eGFR decreased on average by 6mL/min/1.73m² (based on creatinine) and 24mL/min/1.73m² (based on a combined creatinine and cystatin C equation). eGFR change was higher in Q3 and Q4 of blood lead levels compared with Q1 (P for trend = 0.001). The HR for incident CKD in Q4 was 1.49 (95% CI, 1.07-2.08) compared with Q1 to Q3 combined.

LIMITATIONS

Lead level measured only at baseline, moderate number of CKD cases, potential unmeasured confounding.

CONCLUSIONS

Low-level lead exposure was associated with decreased kidney function and incident CKD. Our findings suggest lead nephrotoxicity even at low levels of exposure.

Blood Lead Levels and Decreased Kidney Function in a Population-Based Cohort

BACKGROUND

Environmental lead exposure has been associated with decreased kidney function, but evidence from large prospective cohort studies examining low exposure levels is scarce. We assessed the association of low levels of lead exposure with kidney function and kidney disease.

STUDY DESIGN

Prospective population-based cohort.

SETTING & PARTICIPANTS

4,341 individuals aged 46 to 67 years enrolled into the Malmö Diet and Cancer Study-Cardiovascular Cohort (1991-1994) and 2,567 individuals subsequently followed up (2007-2012).

PREDICTOR

Blood lead concentrations in quartiles (Q1-Q4) at baseline.

OUTCOMES

Change in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) between the baseline and follow-up visit based on serum creatinine level alone or in combination with cystatin C level. Chronic kidney disease (CKD) incidence (185 cases) through 2013 detected using a national registry.

MEASUREMENTS

Multivariable-adjusted linear regression models to assess associations between lead levels and eGFRs at baseline and follow-up and change in eGFRs over time. Cox regression was used to examine associations between lead levels and CKD incidence. Validation of 100 randomly selected CKD cases showed very good agreement between registry data and medical records and laboratory data.

RESULTS

At baseline, 60% of study participants were women, mean age was 57 years, and median lead level was 25 (range, 1.5-258) μg/L. After a mean of 16 years of follow-up, eGFR decreased on average by 6mL/min/1.73m² (based on creatinine) and 24mL/min/1.73m² (based on a combined creatinine and cystatin C equation). eGFR change was higher in Q3 and Q4 of blood lead levels compared with Q1 (P for trend = 0.001). The HR for incident CKD in Q4 was 1.49 (95% CI, 1.07-2.08) compared with Q1 to Q3 combined.

LIMITATIONS

Lead level measured only at baseline, moderate number of CKD cases, potential unmeasured confounding.

CONCLUSIONS

Low-level lead exposure was associated with decreased kidney function and incident CKD. Our findings suggest lead nephrotoxicity even at low levels of exposure.

Partial Mediation by Cadmium Exposure of the Association Between Tobacco Smoking and Atherosclerotic Plaques in the Carotid Artery

Exposure to cadmium confers increased cardiovascular risk. Tobacco smoke contains cadmium, which, hypothetically, may mediate parts of the tobacco-associated risk of developing atherosclerotic plaques. Baseline data from the Swedish Malmö Diet and Cancer cohort (1991-1996) were used to test this hypothesis. Mediation analysis was used to examine associations between smoking and blood cadmium levels and the prevalence of ultrasound-assessed carotid atherosclerotic plaques. The total association with smoking status (never smokers, 2 categories of former smokers, and current smokers) was split into direct and indirect association, and the proportion mediated was estimated. The adjusted estimated plaque prevalence was approximately 27% among never smokers. We identified both a direct and an indirect pathway between smoking and carotid plaques; the indirect association, through cadmium, was observed among current smokers and former smokers who had quit smoking less than 15 years before. For current smokers, the prevalence ratio for plaque was 1.5, with 60%-65% of the association with smoking being mediated through cadmium. Recent former smokers had a prevalence ratio of 1.3, and 40%-45% was mediated through cadmium. Long-time former smokers had a prevalence ratio of 1.2, but none of the association was mediated through cadmium. In conclusion, about two-thirds of the proatherosclerotic association with smoking was mediated by cadmium.

Cadmium, Carotid Atherosclerosis, and Incidence of Ischemic Stroke

Background

Exposure to cadmium has been associated with carotid plaques, inflammation in carotid plaques, and increased risk of ischemic stroke. This study examined the separate and interacting effects of blood cadmium levels and carotid plaques on the risk of incident ischemic stroke.

Methods and Results

Cadmium levels were measured in 4156 subjects (39.2% men; mean±SD age 57.3±5.9 years) without history of stroke, from the Malmö Diet and Cancer cohort. The right carotid artery was examined using B‐mode ultrasound examination at baseline. Incidence of ischemic stroke was monitored over a mean follow‐up of 16.7 years. Carotid plaque was present in 34.5% of participants. Cadmium was significantly higher in subjects with plaque (mean±SD: 0.53±0.58 μg/L versus 0.42±0.49 μg/L; P<0.001). A total of 221 subjects had ischemic stroke during the follow‐up. Incidence of ischemic stroke was associated both with carotid plaque (hazard ratio 1.44, 95% confidence interval, 1.09–1.90, P=0.009) and cadmium (hazard ratio for quartile [Q] 4 versus Q1–3: 1.95, confidence interval, 1.33–2.85, P=0.001), after adjustment for risk factors. There was a significant interaction between cadmium and plaque with respect to risk of ischemic stroke (P=0.011). Adjusted for risk factors, subjects with plaque and cadmium in Q4 had a hazard ratio of 2.88 (confidence interval, 1.79–4.63) for ischemic stroke, compared with those without plaque and cadmium in Q1 to Q3.

Conclusions

Cadmium was associated with incidence of ischemic stroke, both independently and in synergistic interaction with carotid plaques. This supports the hypothesis that cadmium promotes vulnerability of carotid plaques, thereby increasing the risk of rupture and ischemic stroke.

Long-term effects of total and source-specific particulate air pollution on incident cardiovascular disease in Gothenburg, Sweden

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Long-term exposure to air pollution increases cardiopulmonary morbidity and mortality, but it is not clear which components of air pollution are the most harmful, nor which time window of exposure is most relevant. Further studies at low exposure levels have also been called for. We analyzed two Swedish cohorts to investigate the effects of total and source-specific particulate matter (PM) on incident cardiovascular disease for different time windows of exposure.

METHODS

Two cohorts initially recruited to study predictors of cardiovascular disease (the PPS cohort and the GOT-MONICA cohort) were followed from 1990 to 2011. We collected data on residential addresses and assigned each individual yearly total and source-specific PM and Nitrogen Oxides (NO_x) exposures based on dispersion models. Using multivariable Cox regression models with time-dependent exposure, we studied the association between three different time windows (lag 0, lag 1-5, and exposure at study start) of residential PM and NO_x exposure, and incidence of ischemic heart disease, stroke, heart failure and atrial fibrillation.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

During the study period, there were 2266 new-onset cases of ischemic heart disease, 1391 of stroke, 925 of heart failure and 1712 of atrial fibrillation. The majority of cases were in the PPS cohort, where participants were older. Exposure levels during the study period were moderate (median: 13µg/m³ for PM₁₀ and 9µg/m³ for PM_2.5), and similar in both cohorts. Road traffic and residential heating were the largest local sources of PM air pollution, and long distance transportation the largest PM source in total. In the PPS cohort, there were positive associations between PM in the last five years and both ischemic heart disease (HR: 1.24 [95% CI: 0.98-1.59] per 10µg/m³ of PM₁₀, and HR: 1.38 [95% CI: 1.08-1.77] per 5µg/m³ of PM_2.5) and heart failure. In the GOT-MONICA cohort, there were positive but generally non-significant associations between PM and stroke (HR: 1.48 [95% CI: 0.88-2.49] per 10µg/m³ of PM₁₀, and HR: 1.50 [95% CI: 0.90-2.51] per 5µg/m³ of PM_2.5, in the last five years). Effect estimates were stronger for women, non-smokers, and higher socioeconomic classes. Exposure in the last five years seemed to be more strongly associated with outcomes than other exposure time windows. Associations between source-specific PM air pollution and outcomes were mixed and generally weak. High correlations between the main pollutants limited the use of multi-pollutant models.

CONCLUSIONS

The main PM air pollutants were associated with ischemic heart disease and stroke (in women) at the relatively low exposure levels in Gothenburg, Sweden. The associations tended to be stronger for women than for men, for non-smokers than for smokers, and for higher socioeconomic classes than for lower. The associations could not be attributed to a specific PM source or type, and differed somewhat between the two cohorts. The results of this study confirm that further efforts to reduce air pollution exposure should be undertaken in Sweden to reduce the negative health effects in the general population.

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 328 diseases and injuries for 195 countries, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND

As mortality rates decline, life expectancy increases, and populations age, non-fatal outcomes of diseases and injuries are becoming a larger component of the global burden of disease. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of prevalence, incidence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 328 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016.

METHODS

We estimated prevalence and incidence for 328 diseases and injuries and 2982 sequelae, their non-fatal consequences. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death rates for each condition. For some causes, we used alternative modelling strategies if incidence or prevalence needed to be derived from other data. YLDs were estimated as the product of prevalence and a disability weight for all mutually exclusive sequelae, corrected for comorbidity and aggregated to cause level. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. GBD 2016 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).

FINDINGS

Globally, low back pain, migraine, age-related and other hearing loss, iron-deficiency anaemia, and major depressive disorder were the five leading causes of YLDs in 2016, contributing 57·6 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 40·8-75·9 million [7·2%, 6·0-8·3]), 45·1 million (29·0-62·8 million [5·6%, 4·0-7·2]), 36·3 million (25·3-50·9 million [4·5%, 3·8-5·3]), 34·7 million (23·0-49·6 million [4·3%, 3·5-5·2]), and 34·1 million (23·5-46·0 million [4·2%, 3·2-5·3]) of total YLDs, respectively. Age-standardised rates of YLDs for all causes combined decreased between 1990 and 2016 by 2·7% (95% UI 2·3-3·1). Despite mostly stagnant age-standardised rates, the absolute number of YLDs from non-communicable diseases has been growing rapidly across all SDI quintiles, partly because of population growth, but also the ageing of populations. The largest absolute increases in total numbers of YLDs globally were between the ages of 40 and 69 years. Age-standardised YLD rates for all conditions combined were 10·4% (95% UI 9·0-11·8) higher in women than in men. Iron-deficiency anaemia, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, major depressive disorder, anxiety, and all musculoskeletal disorders apart from gout were the main conditions contributing to higher YLD rates in women. Men had higher age-standardised rates of substance use disorders, diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, cancers, and all injuries apart from sexual violence. Globally, we noted much less geographical variation in disability than has been documented for premature mortality. In 2016, there was a less than two times difference in age-standardised YLD rates for all causes between the location with the lowest rate (China, 9201 YLDs per 100 000, 95% UI 6862-11943) and highest rate (Yemen, 14 774 YLDs per 100 000, 11 018-19 228).

INTERPRETATION

The decrease in death rates since 1990 for most causes has not been matched by a similar decline in age-standardised YLD rates. For many large causes, YLD rates have either been stagnant or have increased for some causes, such as diabetes. As populations are ageing, and the prevalence of disabling disease generally increases steeply with age, health systems will face increasing demand for services that are generally costlier than the interventions that have led to declines in mortality in childhood or for the major causes of mortality in adults. Up-to-date information about the trends of disease and how this varies between countries is essential to plan for an adequate health-system response.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and the National Institute on Aging and the National Institute of Mental Health of the National Institutes of Health.

Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND

Detailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify exemplars for best practice. To accomplish this, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) estimated age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality between 1970 and 2016 for 195 countries and territories and at the subnational level for the five countries with a population greater than 200 million in 2016.

METHODS

We have evaluated how well civil registration systems captured deaths using a set of demographic methods called death distribution methods for adults and from consideration of survey and census data for children younger than 5 years. We generated an overall assessment of completeness of registration of deaths by dividing registered deaths in each location-year by our estimate of all-age deaths generated from our overall estimation process. For 163 locations, including subnational units in countries with a population greater than 200 million with complete vital registration (VR) systems, our estimates were largely driven by the observed data, with corrections for small fluctuations in numbers and estimation for recent years where there were lags in data reporting (lags were variable by location, generally between 1 year and 6 years). For other locations, we took advantage of different data sources available to measure under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) using complete birth histories, summary birth histories, and incomplete VR with adjustments; we measured adult mortality rate (the probability of death in individuals aged 15-60 years) using adjusted incomplete VR, sibling histories, and household death recall. We used the U5MR and adult mortality rate, together with crude death rate due to HIV in the GBD model life table system, to estimate age-specific and sex-specific death rates for each location-year. Using various international databases, we identified fatal discontinuities, which we defined as increases in the death rate of more than one death per million, resulting from conflict and terrorism, natural disasters, major transport or technological accidents, and a subset of epidemic infectious diseases; these were added to estimates in the relevant years. In 47 countries with an identified peak adult prevalence for HIV/AIDS of more than 0·5% and where VR systems were less than 65% complete, we informed our estimates of age-sex-specific mortality using the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP)-Spectrum model fitted to national HIV/AIDS prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance systems. We estimated stillbirths, early neonatal, late neonatal, and childhood mortality using both survey and VR data in spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models. We estimated abridged life tables for all location-years using age-specific death rates. We grouped locations into development quintiles based on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and analysed mortality trends by quintile. Using spline regression, we estimated the expected mortality rate for each age-sex group as a function of SDI. We identified countries with higher life expectancy than expected by comparing observed life expectancy to anticipated life expectancy on the basis of development status alone.

FINDINGS

Completeness in the registration of deaths increased from 28% in 1970 to a peak of 45% in 2013; completeness was lower after 2013 because of lags in reporting. Total deaths in children younger than 5 years decreased from 1970 to 2016, and slower decreases occurred at ages 5-24 years. By contrast, numbers of adult deaths increased in each 5-year age bracket above the age of 25 years. The distribution of annualised rates of change in age-specific mortality rate differed over the period 2000 to 2016 compared with earlier decades: increasing annualised rates of change were less frequent, although rising annualised rates of change still occurred in some locations, particularly for adolescent and younger adult age groups. Rates of stillbirths and under-5 mortality both decreased globally from 1970. Evidence for global convergence of death rates was mixed; although the absolute difference between age-standardised death rates narrowed between countries at the lowest and highest levels of SDI, the ratio of these death rates-a measure of relative inequality-increased slightly. There was a strong shift between 1970 and 2016 toward higher life expectancy, most noticeably at higher levels of SDI. Among countries with populations greater than 1 million in 2016, life expectancy at birth was highest for women in Japan, at 86·9 years (95% UI 86·7-87·2), and for men in Singapore, at 81·3 years (78·8-83·7) in 2016. Male life expectancy was generally lower than female life expectancy between 1970 and 2016, and the gap between male and female life expectancy increased with progression to higher levels of SDI. Some countries with exceptional health performance in 1990 in terms of the difference in observed to expected life expectancy at birth had slower progress on the same measure in 2016.

INTERPRETATION

Globally, mortality rates have decreased across all age groups over the past five decades, with the largest improvements occurring among children younger than 5 years. However, at the national level, considerable heterogeneity remains in terms of both level and rate of changes in age-specific mortality; increases in mortality for certain age groups occurred in some locations. We found evidence that the absolute gap between countries in age-specific death rates has declined, although the relative gap for some age-sex groups increased. Countries that now lead in terms of having higher observed life expectancy than that expected on the basis of development alone, or locations that have either increased this advantage or rapidly decreased the deficit from expected levels, could provide insight into the means to accelerate progress in nations where progress has stalled.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and the National Institute on Aging and the National Institute of Mental Health of the National Institutes of Health.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of risk factor exposure and attributable burden of disease. By providing estimates over a long time series, this study can monitor risk exposure trends critical to health surveillance and inform policy debates on the importance of addressing risks in context.

METHODS

We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2016. This study included 481 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk (RR) and exposure estimates from 22 717 randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources, according to the GBD 2016 source counting methods. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. Finally, we explored four drivers of trends in attributable burden: population growth, population ageing, trends in risk exposure, and all other factors combined.

FINDINGS

Since 1990, exposure increased significantly for 30 risks, did not change significantly for four risks, and decreased significantly for 31 risks. Among risks that are leading causes of burden of disease, child growth failure and household air pollution showed the most significant declines, while metabolic risks, such as body-mass index and high fasting plasma glucose, showed significant increases. In 2016, at Level 3 of the hierarchy, the three leading risk factors in terms of attributable DALYs at the global level for men were smoking (124·1 million DALYs [95% UI 111·2 million to 137·0 million]), high systolic blood pressure (122·2 million DALYs [110·3 million to 133·3 million], and low birthweight and short gestation (83·0 million DALYs [78·3 million to 87·7 million]), and for women, were high systolic blood pressure (89·9 million DALYs [80·9 million to 98·2 million]), high body-mass index (64·8 million DALYs [44·4 million to 87·6 million]), and high fasting plasma glucose (63·8 million DALYs [53·2 million to 76·3 million]). In 2016 in 113 countries, the leading risk factor in terms of attributable DALYs was a metabolic risk factor. Smoking remained among the leading five risk factors for DALYs for 109 countries, while low birthweight and short gestation was the leading risk factor for DALYs in 38 countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. In terms of important drivers of change in trends of burden attributable to risk factors, between 2006 and 2016 exposure to risks explains an 9·3% (6·9-11·6) decline in deaths and a 10·8% (8·3-13·1) decrease in DALYs at the global level, while population ageing accounts for 14·9% (12·7-17·5) of deaths and 6·2% (3·9-8·7) of DALYs, and population growth for 12·4% (10·1-14·9) of deaths and 12·4% (10·1-14·9) of DALYs. The largest contribution of trends in risk exposure to disease burden is seen between ages 1 year and 4 years, where a decline of 27·3% (24·9-29·7) of the change in DALYs between 2006 and 2016 can be attributed to declines in exposure to risks.

INTERPRETATION

Increasingly detailed understanding of the trends in risk exposure and the RRs for each risk-outcome pair provide insights into both the magnitude of health loss attributable to risks and how modification of risk exposure has contributed to health trends. Metabolic risks warrant particular policy attention, due to their large contribution to global disease burden, increasing trends, and variable patterns across countries at the same level of development. GBD 2016 findings show that, while it has huge potential to improve health, risk modification has played a relatively small part in the past decade.

FUNDING

The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Bloomberg Philanthropies.

Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND

Monitoring levels and trends in premature mortality is crucial to understanding how societies can address prominent sources of early death. The Global Burden of Disease 2016 Study (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 264 causes in 195 locations from 1980 to 2016. This assessment includes evaluation of the expected epidemiological transition with changes in development and where local patterns deviate from these trends.

METHODS

We estimated cause-specific deaths and years of life lost (YLLs) by age, sex, geography, and year. YLLs were calculated from the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. We used the GBD cause of death database composed of: vital registration (VR) data corrected for under-registration and garbage coding; national and subnational verbal autopsy (VA) studies corrected for garbage coding; and other sources including surveys and surveillance systems for specific causes such as maternal mortality. To facilitate assessment of quality, we reported on the fraction of deaths assigned to GBD Level 1 or Level 2 causes that cannot be underlying causes of death (major garbage codes) by location and year. Based on completeness, garbage coding, cause list detail, and time periods covered, we provided an overall data quality rating for each location with scores ranging from 0 stars (worst) to 5 stars (best). We used robust statistical methods including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) to generate estimates for each location, year, age, and sex. We assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific deaths in relation to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of average income per capita, educational attainment, and total fertility, with locations grouped into quintiles by SDI. Relative to GBD 2015, we expanded the GBD cause hierarchy by 18 causes of death for GBD 2016.

FINDINGS

The quality of available data varied by location. Data quality in 25 countries rated in the highest category (5 stars), while 48, 30, 21, and 44 countries were rated at each of the succeeding data quality levels. Vital registration or verbal autopsy data were not available in 27 countries, resulting in the assignment of a zero value for data quality. Deaths from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) represented 72·3% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 71·2-73·2) of deaths in 2016 with 19·3% (18·5-20·4) of deaths in that year occurring from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases and a further 8·43% (8·00-8·67) from injuries. Although age-standardised rates of death from NCDs decreased globally between 2006 and 2016, total numbers of these deaths increased; both numbers and age-standardised rates of death from CMNN causes decreased in the decade 2006-16-age-standardised rates of deaths from injuries decreased but total numbers varied little. In 2016, the three leading global causes of death in children under-5 were lower respiratory infections, neonatal preterm birth complications, and neonatal encephalopathy due to birth asphyxia and trauma, combined resulting in 1·80 million deaths (95% UI 1·59 million to 1·89 million). Between 1990 and 2016, a profound shift toward deaths at older ages occurred with a 178% (95% UI 176-181) increase in deaths in ages 90-94 years and a 210% (208-212) increase in deaths older than age 95 years. The ten leading causes by rates of age-standardised YLL significantly decreased from 2006 to 2016 (median annualised rate of change was a decrease of 2·89%); the median annualised rate of change for all other causes was lower (a decrease of 1·59%) during the same interval. Globally, the five leading causes of total YLLs in 2016 were cardiovascular diseases; diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; neoplasms; neonatal disorders; and HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis. At a finer level of disaggregation within cause groupings, the ten leading causes of total YLLs in 2016 were ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, road injuries, malaria, neonatal preterm birth complications, HIV/AIDS, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and neonatal encephalopathy due to birth asphyxia and trauma. Ischaemic heart disease was the leading cause of total YLLs in 113 countries for men and 97 countries for women. Comparisons of observed levels of YLLs by countries, relative to the level of YLLs expected on the basis of SDI alone, highlighted distinct regional patterns including the greater than expected level of YLLs from malaria and from HIV/AIDS across sub-Saharan Africa; diabetes mellitus, especially in Oceania; interpersonal violence, notably within Latin America and the Caribbean; and cardiomyopathy and myocarditis, particularly in eastern and central Europe. The level of YLLs from ischaemic heart disease was less than expected in 117 of 195 locations. Other leading causes of YLLs for which YLLs were notably lower than expected included neonatal preterm birth complications in many locations in both south Asia and southeast Asia, and cerebrovascular disease in western Europe.

INTERPRETATION

The past 37 years have featured declining rates of communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases across all quintiles of SDI, with faster than expected gains for many locations relative to their SDI. A global shift towards deaths at older ages suggests success in reducing many causes of early death. YLLs have increased globally for causes such as diabetes mellitus or some neoplasms, and in some locations for causes such as drug use disorders, and conflict and terrorism. Increasing levels of YLLs might reflect outcomes from conditions that required high levels of care but for which effective treatments remain elusive, potentially increasing costs to health systems.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Increased blood cadmium levels were not associated with increased fracture risk but with increased total mortality in women: the Malmö Diet and Cancer Study

This study aimed to investigate if high levels of blood cadmium at baseline were associated with increased fracture risk during follow-up in middle-aged women. No increased fracture risk was observed during follow-up, but women with higher levels of cadmium had an increased overall mortality.

INTRODUCTION

Exposure to high levels of cadmium has been associated with an increased fracture risk. The aim was to investigate a perceived association between low levels of blood cadmium (B-Cd) at baseline and risk of first incident fracture.

METHODS

From the population-based Malmö Diet and Cancer Study Cardiovascular cohort, 2920 middle-aged women with available background questionnaire and B-Cd measurements were included. Women were divided into quartiles (Q) according to their cadmium levels (Cd-Q1 <0.18 μg/L, Cd-Q2 0.18-0.28 μg/L, Cd-Q3 0.28-0.51 μg/L, and Cd-Q4 >0.51 μg/L). National registries were analysed for prospective risk of fractures or death. Associations between B-Cd and fracture risk were assessed by survival analysis (Cox regression analysis).

RESULTS

In total, 998 first incident fractures occurred in women during a follow-up lasting 20.2 years (median) (12.5-21.2 years) (25th-75th percentile). Women in Cd-Q4 were more often current smokers than in Cd-Q1 78.4 vs. 3.3% (p < 0.001) and the number of cigarettes smoked per day correlated with B-Cd (r = 0.49; p < 0.001). The risk of fracture was not associated with baseline B-Cd in adjusted models. The hazard ratio (HR) Cd-Q4 vs. Cd-Q1 was 1.06 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.89-1.27). In the multivariate Cox regression, independent variables for increased fracture risk were history of gastric ulcer and increasing age, whereas increasing body mass index (BMI) lowered fracture risk. Overall mortality was significantly higher for women with high B-Cd, HR 2.06 (95% CI 1.57-2.69).

CONCLUSIONS

Higher blood levels of cadmium did not increase fracture risk in middle-aged women but reduced overall survival.

Indoor air quality of low and middle income urban households in Durban, South Africa

INTRODUCTION

Elevated levels of indoor air pollutants may cause cardiopulmonary disease such as lower respiratory infection, chronic obstructive lung disease and lung cancer, but the association with tuberculosis (TB) is unclear. So far the risk estimates of TB infection or/and disease due to indoor air pollution (IAP) exposure are based on self-reported exposures rather than direct measurements of IAP, and these exposures have not been validated.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this paper was to characterize and develop predictive models for concentrations of three air pollutants (PM₁₀, NO₂ and SO₂) in homes of children participating in a childhood TB study.

METHODS

Children younger than 15 years living within the eThekwini Municipality in South Africa were recruited for a childhood TB case control study. The homes of these children (n=246) were assessed using a walkthrough checklist, and in 114 of them monitoring of three indoor pollutants was also performed (sampling period: 24h for PM₁₀, and 2-3 weeks for NO₂ and SO₂). Linear regression models were used to predict PM₁₀ and NO₂ concentrations from household characteristics, and these models were validated using leave out one cross validation (LOOCV). SO₂ concentrations were not modeled as concentrations were very low.

RESULTS

Mean indoor concentrations of PM₁₀ (n=105)_, NO₂ (n=82) and SO₂ (n=82) were 64μg/m³ (range 6.6-241); 19μg/m³ (range 4.5-55) and 0.6μg/m³ (range 0.005-3.4) respectively with the distributions for all three pollutants being skewed to the right. Spearman correlations showed weak positive correlations between the three pollutants. The largest contributors to the PM₁₀ predictive model were type of housing structure (formal or informal), number of smokers in the household, and type of primary fuel used in the household. The NO₂ predictive model was influenced mostly by the primary fuel type and by distance from the major roadway. The coefficients of determination (R²) for the models were 0.41 for PM₁₀ and 0.31 for NO₂. Spearman correlations were significant between measured vs. predicted PM₁₀ and NO₂ with coefficients of 0.66 and 0.55 respectively.

CONCLUSION

Indoor PM₁₀ levels were relatively high in these households. Both PM₁₀ and NO₂ can be modeled with a reasonable validity and these predictive models can decrease the necessary number of direct measurements that are expensive and time consuming.

Global, Regional, and National Burden of Cardiovascular Diseases for 10 Causes, 1990 to 2015

Background

The burden of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) remains unclear in many regions of the world.

Objectives

The GBD (Global Burden of Disease) 2015 study integrated data on disease incidence, prevalence, and mortality to produce consistent, up-to-date estimates for cardiovascular burden.

Methods

CVD mortality was estimated from vital registration and verbal autopsy data. CVD prevalence was estimated using modeling software and data from health surveys, prospective cohorts, health system administrative data, and registries. Years lived with disability (YLD) were estimated by multiplying prevalence by disability weights. Years of life lost (YLL) were estimated by multiplying age-specific CVD deaths by a reference life expectancy. A sociodemographic index (SDI) was created for each location based on income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility.

Results

In 2015, there were an estimated 422.7 million cases of CVD (95% uncertainty interval: 415.53 to 427.87 million cases) and 17.92 million CVD deaths (95% uncertainty interval: 17.59 to 18.28 million CVD deaths). Declines in the age-standardized CVD death rate occurred between 1990 and 2015 in all high-income and some middle-income countries. Ischemic heart disease was the leading cause of CVD health lost globally, as well as in each world region, followed by stroke. As SDI increased beyond 0.25, the highest CVD mortality shifted from women to men. CVD mortality decreased sharply for both sexes in countries with an SDI >0.75.

Conclusions

CVDs remain a major cause of health loss for all regions of the world. Sociodemographic change over the past 25 years has been associated with dramatic declines in CVD in regions with very high SDI, but only a gradual decrease or no change in most regions. Future updates of the GBD study can be used to guide policymakers who are focused on reducing the overall burden of noncommunicable disease and achieving specific global health targets for CVD.

Global, Regional, and National Cancer Incidence, Mortality, Years of Life Lost, Years Lived With Disability, and Disability-Adjusted Life-years for 32 Cancer Groups, 1990 to 2015: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study

IMPORTANCE

Cancer is the second leading cause of death worldwide. Current estimates on the burden of cancer are needed for cancer control planning.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate mortality, incidence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 32 cancers in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015.

EVIDENCE REVIEW

Cancer mortality was estimated using vital registration system data, cancer registry incidence data (transformed to mortality estimates using separately estimated mortality to incidence [MI] ratios), and verbal autopsy data. Cancer incidence was calculated by dividing mortality estimates through the modeled MI ratios. To calculate cancer prevalence, MI ratios were used to model survival. To calculate YLDs, prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights. The YLLs were estimated by multiplying age-specific cancer deaths by the reference life expectancy. DALYs were estimated as the sum of YLDs and YLLs. A sociodemographic index (SDI) was created for each location based on income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Countries were categorized by SDI quintiles to summarize results.

FINDINGS

In 2015, there were 17.5 million cancer cases worldwide and 8.7 million deaths. Between 2005 and 2015, cancer cases increased by 33%, with population aging contributing 16%, population growth 13%, and changes in age-specific rates contributing 4%. For men, the most common cancer globally was prostate cancer (1.6 million cases). Tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer was the leading cause of cancer deaths and DALYs in men (1.2 million deaths and 25.9 million DALYs). For women, the most common cancer was breast cancer (2.4 million cases). Breast cancer was also the leading cause of cancer deaths and DALYs for women (523 000 deaths and 15.1 million DALYs). Overall, cancer caused 208.3 million DALYs worldwide in 2015 for both sexes combined. Between 2005 and 2015, age-standardized incidence rates for all cancers combined increased in 174 of 195 countries or territories. Age-standardized death rates (ASDRs) for all cancers combined decreased within that timeframe in 140 of 195 countries or territories. Countries with an increase in the ASDR due to all cancers were largely located on the African continent. Of all cancers, deaths between 2005 and 2015 decreased significantly for Hodgkin lymphoma (-6.1% [95% uncertainty interval (UI), -10.6% to -1.3%]). The number of deaths also decreased for esophageal cancer, stomach cancer, and chronic myeloid leukemia, although these results were not statistically significant.

CONCLUSION AND RELEVANCE

As part of the epidemiological transition, cancer incidence is expected to increase in the future, further straining limited health care resources. Appropriate allocation of resources for cancer prevention, early diagnosis, and curative and palliative care requires detailed knowledge of the local burden of cancer. The GBD 2015 study results demonstrate that progress is possible in the war against cancer. However, the major findings also highlight an unmet need for cancer prevention efforts, including tobacco control, vaccination, and the promotion of physical activity and a healthy diet.

Cadmium exposure is associated with soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor, a circulating marker of inflammation and future cardiovascular disease

BACKGROUND

Diet and smoking are the main sources of cadmium exposure in the general population. Cadmium increases the risk of cardiovascular diseases, and experimental studies show that it induces inflammation. Blood cadmium levels are associated with macrophages in human atherosclerotic plaques. Soluble urokinase-type plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR) is an emerging biomarker for cardiovascular events related to inflammation and atherosclerotic plaques. The aim was to examine whether blood cadmium levels are associated with circulating suPAR and other markers of inflammation.

METHODS

A population sample of 4648 Swedish middle-aged women and men was examined cross-sectionally in 1991-1994. Plasma suPAR was assessed by ELISA, leukocytes were measured by standard methods, and blood cadmium was analysed by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. Prevalent cardiovascular disease, ultrasound-assessed carotid plaque occurrence, and several possible confounding factors were recorded.

RESULTS

After full adjustment for risk factors and confounding variables, a 3-fold increase in blood cadmium was associated with an 10.9% increase in suPAR concentration (p<0.001). In never-smokers, a 3-fold increase in blood cadmium was associated with a 3.7% increase in suPAR concentration (p<0.01) after full adjustment. Blood cadmium was not associated with C-reactive protein, white blood cell count and Lp-PLA2 but with neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio in one of two statistical models.

CONCLUSIONS

Exposure to cadmium was associated with increased plasma suPAR in the general population, independently of smoking and cardiovascular disease. These results imply that cadmium is a possible cause for raised levels of this inflammatory marker.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context.

METHODS

We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors-the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI).

FINDINGS

Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6-58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8-42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa.

INTERPRETATION

Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND

Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.

METHODS

We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).

FINDINGS

Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.

INTERPRETATION

At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE), 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND

Healthy life expectancy (HALE) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) provide summary measures of health across geographies and time that can inform assessments of epidemiological patterns and health system performance, help to prioritise investments in research and development, and monitor progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We aimed to provide updated HALE and DALYs for geographies worldwide and evaluate how disease burden changes with development.

METHODS

We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost (YLLs) and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for each geography, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using the Sullivan method, which draws from age-specific death rates and YLDs per capita. We then assessed how observed levels of DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends calculated with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator constructed from measures of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate.

FINDINGS

Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2015, with decreases in communicable, neonatal, maternal, and nutritional (Group 1) disease DALYs offset by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Much of this epidemiological transition was caused by changes in population growth and ageing, but it was accelerated by widespread improvements in SDI that also correlated strongly with the increasing importance of NCDs. Both total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most Group 1 causes significantly decreased by 2015, and although total burden climbed for the majority of NCDs, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined. Nonetheless, age-standardised DALY rates due to several high-burden NCDs (including osteoarthritis, drug use disorders, depression, diabetes, congenital birth defects, and skin, oral, and sense organ diseases) either increased or remained unchanged, leading to increases in their relative ranking in many geographies. From 2005 to 2015, HALE at birth increased by an average of 2·9 years (95% uncertainty interval 2·9-3·0) for men and 3·5 years (3·4-3·7) for women, while HALE at age 65 years improved by 0·85 years (0·78-0·92) and 1·2 years (1·1-1·3), respectively. Rising SDI was associated with consistently higher HALE and a somewhat smaller proportion of life spent with functional health loss; however, rising SDI was related to increases in total disability. Many countries and territories in central America and eastern sub-Saharan Africa had increasingly lower rates of disease burden than expected given their SDI. At the same time, a subset of geographies recorded a growing gap between observed and expected levels of DALYs, a trend driven mainly by rising burden due to war, interpersonal violence, and various NCDs.

INTERPRETATION

Health is improving globally, but this means more populations are spending more time with functional health loss, an absolute expansion of morbidity. The proportion of life spent in ill health decreases somewhat with increasing SDI, a relative compression of morbidity, which supports continued efforts to elevate personal income, improve education, and limit fertility. Our analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework on which to benchmark geography-specific health performance and SDG progress. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform financial and research investments, prevention efforts, health policies, and health system improvement initiatives for all countries along the development continuum.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Low-level exposure to lead, blood pressure, and hypertension in a population-based cohort

BACKGROUND

Environmental lead exposure is a possible causative factor for increased blood pressure and hypertension, but large studies at low-level exposure are scarce, and results inconsistent.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to examine the effects of environmental exposure to lead in a large population-based sample.

METHODS

We assessed associations between blood lead and systolic/diastolic blood pressure and hypertension in 4452 individuals (46-67 years) living in Malmö, Sweden, in 1991-1994. Blood pressure was measured using a mercury sphygmomanometer after 10min supine rest. Hypertension was defined as high systolic (≥140mmHg) or diastolic (≥90mmHg) blood pressure and/or current use of antihypertensive medication. Blood lead was calculated from lead in erythrocytes and haematocrit. Multivariable associations between blood lead and blood pressure or hypertension were assessed by linear and logistic regression. Two-thirds of the cohort was re-examined 16 years later.

RESULTS

At baseline, mean blood pressure was 141/87mmHg, 16% used antihypertensive medication, 63% had hypertension, and mean blood lead was 28µg/L. Blood lead in the fourth quartile was associated with significantly higher systolic and diastolic blood pressure (point estimates: 1-2mmHg) and increased prevalence of hypertension (odds ratio: 1.3, 95% confidence interval: 1.1-1.5) versus the other quartiles after adjustment for sex, age, smoking, alcohol, waist circumference, and education. Associations were also significant with blood lead as a continuous variable. Blood lead at baseline, having a half-life of about one month, was not associated with antihypertensive treatment at the 16-year follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS

Low-level lead exposure increases blood pressure and may increase the risk of hypertension.