Comparison of MELD, Child-Pugh, and Emory model for the prediction of survival in patients undergoing transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunting

Older patient age may predict early mortality after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt creation in individuals at intermediate risk

PURPOSE

To identify prognostic factors for early mortality among patients with intermediate-risk Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) scores undergoing transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) creation.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

In this single-institution retrospective study, 47 patients (31 men; mean age, 54 y) with intermediate MELD scores (ie, 18-25) underwent TIPS creation between 1999 and 2012. Medical records were reviewed to identify demographic (age, sex), liver disease (Child-Pugh, MELD), and procedure data (indication, urgency, stent type, portosystemic pressure gradient reduction, complications), and the influence of these parameters on 90-day mortality was assessed by multivariate binary logistic regression analysis.

RESULTS

TIPSs were successfully created for variceal hemorrhage (n = 24), ascites (n = 17), hydrothorax (n = 5), and portal vein thrombosis (n = 1). Hemodynamic success rate was 94% (44 of 47), and mean portosystemic pressure gradient reduction was 13 mm Hg. The 90-day mortality rate was 36% (17 of 47). Patient age (P = .026) was significantly associated with 90-day mortality. Mean ages of living versus dead patients were 51 and 60 years, and mortality rates in patients aged 54 years or younger versus 55 years or older were 21% (five of 24) and 52% (12 of 23), respectively. There was no difference in MELD scores between these age groups (20.6 vs 21.0; P = .600), and MELD score was not a predictive factor on regression analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Age is a prognostic factor for early mortality in TIPS recipients with intermediate MELD scores. Mortality rates are higher in patients at least 55 years of age, but MELD score does not predict survival in this subset. Age should be contemplated when selecting patients at intermediate risk for TIPS creation.

Prognostic capability of different liver disease scoring systems for prediction of early mortality after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt creation

PURPOSE

To compare the performance of various liver disease scoring systems in predicting early mortality after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) creation.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

In this single-institution retrospective study, eight scoring systems were used to grade liver disease in 211 patients (male-to-female ratio = 131:80; mean age, 54 y) before TIPS creation from 1999-2011. Scoring systems included bilirubin level, Child-Pugh (CP) score, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease sodium (MELD-Na) score, Emory score, prognostic index (PI), Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) 2 score, and Bonn TIPS early mortality (BOTEM) score. Medical record review was used to identify 30-day and 90-day clinical outcomes. The relationship of scoring parameters with mortality outcomes was assessed with multivariate analysis, and the relative ability of systems to predict mortality after TIPS creation was evaluated by comparing area under receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curves.

RESULTS

TIPS were successfully created for variceal hemorrhage (n = 121), ascites (n = 72), hepatic hydrothorax (n = 15), and portal vein thrombosis (n = 3). All scoring systems had a significant association with 30-day and 90-day mortality (P<.050 in each case) on multivariate analysis. Based on 30-day and 90-day AUROC, MELD (0.878, 0.816) and MELD-Na (0.863, 0.823) scores had the best capability to predict early mortality compared with bilirubin (0.786, 0.749), CP (0.822, 0.771), Emory (0.786, 0.681), PI (0.854, 0.760), APACHE 2 (0.836, 0.735), and BOTEM (0.798, 0.698), with statistical superiority over bilirubin, Emory, and BOTEM scores.

CONCLUSIONS

Several liver disease scoring systems have prognostic value for early mortality after TIPS creation. MELD and MELD-Na scores most effectively predict survival after TIPS creation.

Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt placement for refractory ascites: a single-centre experience

BACKGROUND

The presence of refractory ascites is a common indication for transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS). Different models have been proposed for the prediction of survival after TIPS. The aim of this study was to evaluate the predictive factors associated with patients' survival after TIPS placement for refractory ascites.

METHODS

Data from all consecutive patients undergoing TIPS placement in our center for refractory ascites between February 2003 and January 2008 were prospectively recorded.

RESULTS

Seventy-three patients (52M/21F; 57 ± 10 years) met the inclusion criteria; mean follow-up was 17 ± 2 months. Mean MELD value, before TIPS placement, was 15.7 ± 5.3. TIPS placement led to an effective resolution of refractory ascites in 54% of patients (n = 40) with no significant increase in severe portosystemic encephalopathy. The 1-year survival rate observed was 65.7%, while the overall mortality was 23.3% (n = 17) with a mean survival of 17 ± 14 months. MELD score (B = 0.161, p = 0.042), basal AST (B = 0.020, p = 0.090), and pre-TIPS HVPG (B = 0.016, p = 0.093) were independent predictors of overall mortality, while MELD (B = 0.419, p = 0.018) and HVPG (B = 0.223, p = 0.060) independently predicted 1-year survival. ROC curves identified MELD ≥ 19 and HVPG ≥ 25 mmHg as the best cut-off points for the prediction of 1-year mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

TIPS is an effective treatment for refractory ascites in cirrhotic patients, leading to an effective ascites control in more than half patients. Improvement in patients' selection criteria could lead to better outcome and survival after this procedure. Liver function (MELD), presence of active necroinflammation (AST), and portal hypertension (HVPG) are independent predictors of patients' outcome after TIPS.

The transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt: an update

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this article is to review the indications, outcomes, complications, patient selection, and technical aspects of creating a transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS).

CONCLUSION

The best available evidence supports the use of TIPS in secondary prevention of variceal bleeding and in refractory ascites, although TIPS is also commonly used for other indications such as Budd-Chiari syndrome, hepatic hydrothorax, and acute variceal hemorrhage. The TIPS procedure was revolutionized by the introduction of covered stents, which dramatically improved long-term shunt patency.

The transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt in the treatment of portal hypertension: current status

The transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) represents a major advance in the treatment of complications of portal hypertension. Technical improvements and increased experience over the past 24 years led to improved clinical results and a better definition of the indications for TIPS. Randomized clinical trials indicate that the TIPS procedure is not a first-line therapy for variceal bleeding, but can be used when medical treatment fails, both in the acute situation or to prevent variceal rebleeding. The role of TIPS to treat refractory ascites is probably more justified to improve the quality of life rather than to improve survival, except for patients with preserved liver function. It can be helpful for hepatic hydrothorax and can reverse hepatorenal syndrome in selected cases. It is a good treatment for Budd Chiari syndrome uncontrollable by medical treatment. Careful selection of patients is mandatory before TIPS, and clinical followup is essential to detect and treat complications that may result from TIPS stenosis (which can be prevented by using covered stents) and chronic encephalopathy (which may in severe cases justify reduction or occlusion of the shunt). A multidisciplinary approach, including the resources for liver transplantation, is always required to treat these patients.

Predicting Mortality Across a Broad Spectrum of Liver Disease-An Assessment of Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP), and Creatinine-Modified CTP Scores

BACKGROUND/AIMS

The role of model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) among Indian patients with cirrhosis is uncertain. We studied and compared MELD with Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) and creatinine-modified-CTP (CrCTP) scores for predicting 1-, 3-, and 6-months mortality.

METHODS

One-hundred and two patients with cirrhosis were studied. The CrCTP was calculated by adding creatinine score of 0, 2 and 4 with creatinine levels of ≤1.2mg/dL, 1.3-1.8 mg/dL and ≥1.9mg/dL, respectively to CTP score. Survival curves were plotted and receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves were used to compare the scores. Predictors of mortality were analyzed using Cox proportional hazards model.

RESULTS

Scores of CTP, CrCTP, and MELD have excellent diagnostic accuracy for predicting mortality (c-statistics >0.85). The MELD was superior to CTP for predicting 3-months [c-statistic and 95% confidence interval, 0.967 (0.911-0.992) vs 0.884 (0.806-0.939)] and 6-months [0.977 (0.925-0.996) vs 0.908 (0.835-0.956)] mortality (P=0.05), while CrCTP [0.958 (0.899-0.988)] was better than CTP for predicting 3-months mortality (P=0.02). Serum creatinine (hazard ratio 4.43, P<0.0001) is a strong independent predictor of mortality.

CONCLUSION

The MELD accurately predicts mortality in cirrhosis and is better than CTP for predicting the short-term and intermediate-term mortality. Adding serum creatinine to CTP though significantly improves its diagnostic accuracy for short-term mortality; however, it remains lower than MELD alone.

Advanced hemodynamic monitoring before and after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt: implications for selection of patients--a prospective study

PURPOSE

To investigate immediate and short-term effects of transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) on cardiocirculatory, hepatic, and renal function and characterize predictors for TIPS outcome in terms of organ function after TIPS.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This prospective study was approved by the ethics committee at a university hospital and was conducted in a medical intensive care unit. Informed consent was obtained. Twenty patients with indication for TIPS were enrolled. Monitoring of hemodynamic and hepatic function (transpulmonary thermodilution, indocyanine green plasma disappearance rate [ICG-PDR]) was performed. Biochemical markers of organ function were obtained. Statistical analysis (Wilcoxon test, Spearman correlation, multivariate linear regression analysis, receiver operating characteristic [ROC] analysis) was performed.

RESULTS

After TIPS, central venous pressure (median, 11 vs 15 cm H(2)O; P < .001), cardiac index (3.4 vs 3.8 L/min/m(2); P = .001), and global end-diastolic volume index (GEDVI) (726 vs 775 mL/m(2); P = .003) increased significantly. Portosystemic pressure gradient (28 vs 11 cm H(2)O; P < .001) and systemic vascular resistance index (1610 vs 1384 dyn · sec · cm(-5) · m(2); P = .015) decreased significantly. Creatinine (1.1 vs 1.1 mg/dL; P = .008) and blood urea nitrogen (BUN) (27 vs 21 mg/dL; P = .006) decreased significantly. Bilirubin (1.8 vs 2.2 mg/dL; P = .032) and international normalized ratio (1.4 vs 1.5; P = .022) increased significantly. ICG-PDR significantly deteriorated after TIPS (P = .006). Higher baseline creatinine was independently associated with a decrease in creatinine after TIPS (R = 0.816, P < .001). ROC analysis identified baseline BUN (P = .026, area under ROC curve [AUC] = 0.818), cystatin C (P = .033, AUC = 0.805), and creatinine (P = .052, AUC = 0.779) as predictors of a decrease in creatinine of 0.5 mg/dL or greater and/or 25% or greater. An increase in bilirubin of 1 mg/dL or greater 1 week after TIPS was significantly associated with high baseline BUN (P = .007, AUC = 0.893) and high central venous pressure (P = .040, AUC = 0.800). Lower baseline alanine aminotransferase (P = .002, AUC = 1.000) and cardiac power index · GEDVI (P = .005, AUC = 0.960) predicted favorable TIPS outcome (creatinine decrease of ≥ 0.2 mg/dL without model for end-stage liver disease score increase of more than one point).

CONCLUSION

Patients with renal insufficiency, compensated hepatocellular function, decreased cardiac preload, and decreased cardiac performance benefit most from TIPS.

Liver dysfunction by model for end-stage liver disease score improves mortality prediction in injured patients with cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Cirrhosis is associated with poor outcomes in the trauma setting. We aimed to evaluate the utility of Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) in assessing additional mortality risk in trauma patients with cirrhosis.

METHODS

Injured patients with liver dysfunction were identified by hospital and trauma registry query. Presence of cirrhosis was confirmed by laparotomy, biopsy, or imaging. MELD classification, Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) classification, Injury Severity Score (ISS), and Trauma ISS (TRISS) were recorded, and the primary outcome variable was hospital mortality. We assessed the validity of the four scoring systems in prediction of mortality, individually and in combinations, by comparing the areas under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC), which is the probability, for scores that increase with the risk of death that a randomly chosen deceased subject will score higher than a randomly chosen living subject.

RESULTS

A total of 163 patients with confirmed cirrhosis were included. ISS (AUC = 0.849, p < 0.001) and TRISS (AUC = 0.826, p < 0.001) were the strongest predictors of mortality. MELD (AUC = 0.725) was not a significantly stronger predictor of mortality than CTP (AUC = 0.639; p = 0.38). ISS + MELD (AUC = 0.891) and ISS + CTP (AUC = 0.897) were stronger predictors than ISS alone (AUC = 0.849; p < 0.001) for both. The MELD score was more available from the records than the CTP score (91.4% vs. 75.5%).

CONCLUSION

In trauma patients with cirrhosis, a score that evaluates the degree of liver dysfunction enhances the ability of ISS alone to predict mortality. The MELD score is more readily available than the CTP score for the prediction of mortality in trauma patients.

Risk factors for long-term mortality in a large cohort of patients wait-listed for liver transplantation in Brazil

Liver donor shortage and long waiting times are observed in many liver transplant programs worldwide. The aim of this study was to evaluate the wait list in a developing country, before and after the introduction of the MELD scoring system. In addition, the MELD score ability to predict mortality in this setting was assessed. A single-center retrospective study of patients wait-listed for liver transplantation between 1997 and 2010 was undertaken. There were 1339 and 762 patients on the list in pre-MELD and MELD era, respectively. A competitive risk analysis was performed to assess age, gender, disease diagnosis, serum sodium, MELD, Child-Pugh, ABO type, and body mass index. Also, MELD score predictive ability at 3, 6, 12, and 24 months after list enrollment was evaluated. The overall mortality rates on waiting list were 31.0% and 28.1% (P = 0.16), and the median waiting times were 412 and 952 days (P < 0.001), in pre and MELD eras, respectively. The competitive risk analysis yielded the following significant P values for both eras: HCC (0.03 and <0.001), MELD (<0.001 and 0.002), sodium level (0.002 and <0.001), and Child-Pugh (0.02 and <0.001). The MELD mortality predictions at 3, 6, 12, and 24 months were similar. In conclusion, in a liver transplant program with long waiting times, the MELD system introduction did not improve mortality rate. In either pre and MELD eras, HCC diagnosis, serum sodium, Child-Pugh, and MELD were significant predictors of prognosis. Short- and long-term MELD based mortality predictions were similarly accurate. Strategies for increasing the liver donor pool should be implemented to improve mortality.

Elevated serum YKL-40 level predicts poor prognosis in hepatocellular carcinoma after surgery

BACKGROUND

YKL-40 is a member of the mammalian chitinase-like proteins. Elevated serum YKL-40 levels in patients with gastrointestinal cancer at time of diagnosis are associated with poor prognosis. The aim of this study is to evaluate the prognostic value of serum YKL-40 before surgery and during follow-up in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients receiving curative resection.

METHODS

Serum YKL-40 levels were determined by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Overall and recurrence-free survival (RFS) curves were constructed using the Kaplan-Meier method and compared by the log-rank test. A Cox proportional-hazards regression model was performed to identify independent prognostic factors. Median follow-up time was 35 months.

RESULTS

Baseline serum YKL-40 was elevated in 56% of patients with HCC receiving curative resection. Patients with elevated serum YKL-40 had significantly shorter overall and RFS than patients with normal serum YKL-40 (P = 0.003 and P = 0.001, respectively). Multivariate Cox regression analyses indicated that baseline serum YKL-40 was an independent prognostic variable for overall and RFS [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.968, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.093-3.543, P = 0.024; HR = 1.891, 95% CI: 1.106-3.232, P = 0.020; respectively]. After curative resection, high serum YKL-40 (log-transformed continuous variable) within 6 months predicted significantly poorer overall survival (HR = 3.003, 95% CI: 1.323-6.817, P = 0.009).

CONCLUSIONS

This study indicated that serum YKL-40 was an independent prognostic factor for overall and RFS in HCC patients receiving curative resection. Serial monitoring of serum YKL-40 after curative resection may provide prognostic information.

Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt in the management of refractory ascites

The purpose of this article is to describe the pathophysiological basis for the use of transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) in patients with cirrhosis and refractory ascites, the short- and long-term hemodynamic, biochemical, and hormonal changes after TIPS, and the results of controlled trials of TIPS in cirrhotic patients with refractory ascites. TIPS placement is associated with normalization of sinusoidal pressure and a significant improvement in urinary sodium excretion that correlates with suppression of plasma renin activity (indicative of an improvement in effective arterial blood volume). Although effective in preventing the recurrence of ascites, the efficacy of TIPS is offset by an increase in the incidence of severe hepatic encephalopathy, a high incidence of shunt dysfunction, and a higher cost without an overall survival benefit, which should be reevaluated in light of polytetrafluoroethylene-covered stents. TIPS placement is currently indicated in seleceted cirrhotic patients with refractory ascites who require more than two to three large-volume paracenteses per month.

The evaluation of the patient undergoing an elective transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt procedure

In its early stages, the transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) was utilized as a lifesaving procedure to treat uncontrollable esophageal variceal bleeding. Most of the initial cases were performed in an emergency situation in the worst possible conditions. The experience gained over the past 15 years has established TIPS as an important therapeutic option in the management of patients with complications of portal hypertension such as variceal bleeding or refractory ascites who do not respond to medical therapy. In current medical practice, 80 to 90% of TIPS procedures are performed in an elective or semielective fashion and only a small percentage of cases are now performed on an emergency basis. The experience gained has demonstrated that certain patients do not benefit from a TIPS procedure and furthermore, their baseline condition may even worsen after a TIPS. This article reviews the most important aspects of the clinical evaluation of patients undergoing an elective TIPS procedure.

Intratumoral regulatory T cells alone or in combination with cytotoxic T cells predict prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma after resection

Tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) represent the host immune response to cancer. CD8(+) cytotoxic T cells (CTLs) have a central role in the elimination of tumors, while regulatory T cells (Tregs) can suppress the immune reaction. The aim of this study was to investigate the prognostic value of TILs, especially Tregs and CTLs, in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients after resection. CD3(+), CD4(+), CD8(+), and FoxP3(+) TILs were assessed by immunohistochemistry in tumor tissue from 141 randomly selected HCC patients. Prognostic effects of low- or high-density TIL subsets were evaluated by Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analysis using the median values as cutoff. The density of intratumoral Tregs (P = 0.040) and peritumoral CTLs (P = 0.004) were an independent factor for overall survival (OS), but not for disease-free survival (DFS). The density of CD3(+) and CD4(+) TILs, and the prevalence of Tregs and CTLs were associated with neither OS nor DFS. The presence of low intratumoral Tregs with high intratumoral CTLs was a negative independent prognostic factor for OS (P = 0.001), while that of low intratumoral Tregs and low peritumoral CTLs independently correlated with improved DFS (P = 0.008). Moreover, the combined analysis of Tregs and CTLs displayed better prognostic performances than any of them alone. Additionally, higher density of intratumoral Tregs correlated with both the presence of liver cirrhosis (P = 0.025) and increased tumor size (P = 0.050). Tregs within tumor environment are promising prognostic parameters for HCC patients, and their combination with CTLs can predict prognosis more effectively.

Role of TIPS in Improving Survival of Patients with Decompensated Liver Disease

Liver cirrhosis is associated with higher morbidity and reduced survival with appearance of portal hypertension and resultant decompensation. Portal decompression plays a key role in improving survival in these patients. Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunts are known to be efficacious in reducing portal venous pressure and control of complications such as variceal bleeding and ascites. However, they have been associated with significant problems such as poor shunt durability, increased encephalopathy, and unchanged survival when compared with conservative treatment options. The last decade has seen a significant improvement in these complications, with introduction of covered stents, better selection of patients, and clearer understanding of procedural end-points. Use of TIPS early in the period of decompensation also appears promising in further improvement of survival of cirrhotic patients.

Organ allocation for chronic liver disease: model for end-stage liver disease and beyond

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Implementation of the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score has led to a reduction in waiting list registration and waitlist mortality. Prognostic models have been proposed to either refine or improve the current MELD-based liver allocation.

RECENT FINDINGS

The model for end-stage liver disease - sodium (MELDNa) incorporates serum sodium and has been shown to improve the predictive accuracy of the MELD score. However, laboratory variation and manipulation of serum sodium is a concern. Organ allocation in the United Kingdom is now based on a model that includes serum sodium. An updated MELD score is associated with a lower relative weight for serum creatinine coefficient and a higher relative weight for bilirubin coefficient, although the contribution of reweighting coefficients as compared with addition of variables is unclear. The D-MELD, the arithmetic product of donor age and preoperative MELD, proposes donor-recipient matching; however, inappropriate transplantation of high-risk donors is a concern. Finally, the net benefit model ranks patients according to the net survival benefit that they would derive from the transplant. However, complex statistical models are required and unmeasured characteristics may unduly affect the model.

SUMMARY

Despite their limitations, efforts to improve the current MELD-based organ allocation are encouraging.

Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt for symptomatic refractory hepatic hydrothorax in patients with cirrhosis

OBJECTIVES

We sought to study effectiveness, survival, and complications after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) in patients with cirrhosis and symptomatic refractory hepatic hydrothorax.

METHODS

Consecutive patients who underwent TIPS between January 1992 and December 2008 for refractory hydrothorax were reviewed retrospectively. Clinical, laboratory, and procedural data were collected for all patients by retrospective chart review. Chi-square test was used to compare categorical variables and t-test to compare continuous variables. The Kaplan-Meier method was used for survival analysis. Survival curves were compared using the log-rank test.

RESULTS

Seventy-three patients were included in the study, and their mean age at TIPS creation was 55.62 years (s.d. 11.65). The mean pre- and post-TIPS portosystemic gradients were 18.9 (s.d. 4.7) mm Hg and 5.7 (s.d. 2.4) mm Hg (P<0.001), respectively. The rates of favorable clinical response within 1 month and at 6 months after TIPS were 79% (58/73) and 75% (30/40), respectively. Median survival of the study group was 517 days (95% CI 11-626). The short-term survival rates at 30, 60, and 90 days were 81, 78, and 72%, respectively. The long-term survival rates at 1, 3, and 5 years were 48, 26, and 15%, respectively. Multivariate analysis by Cox proportional hazards method showed that pre-TIPS model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score (P=0.039, HR 1.9 (95% CI 1.0-3.7)) and clinical response (P=0.003, HR 2.5 (95% CI 1.4-4.5)) were significantly and independently associated with overall survival. The 30-day mortality rate was 19%. Pre-TIPS creatinine levels (P=0.024, HR 3.42 (95% CI 1.2-9.9)) were significantly associated with 30-day mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

TIPS can be successfully used to achieve symptomatic relief in patients with refractory hepatic hydrothorax. Better clinical response after TIPS and pre-TIPS MELD score less than 15 were associated with longer survival after TIPS.

Comparison of the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), MELD-Na and MELDNa for outcome prediction in patients with acute decompensated hepatitis

BACKGROUND AND AIM

The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) is used to predict the outcome of patients with cirrhosis. Incorporation of serum sodium (Na) into MELD may further increase its prognostic ability. Two Na-containing MELD models, MELD-Na and MELDNa, were proposed to enhance the prognostic ability. This study compared the predictive accuracy of these models for acute decompensated hepatitis.

METHODS

We investigated the outcome of 182 patients with acute decompensated hepatitis.

RESULTS

Twenty (11%) patients died at 3 months. The MELD-Na and MELDNa both had significantly higher area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) in comparison to MELD (MELD-Na: 0.908, MELDNa: 0.895, MELD: 0.823, p=0.004 and 0.001, respectively). Among 96 patients without specific antiviral treatment, the MELD-Na and MELDNa consistently had significantly higher AUC than the MELD (MELD-Na: 0.901, MELDNa: 0.882, MELD: 0.810, p=0.008 and 0.004, respectively). Three independent indicators, pre-existing cirrhosis (odds ratio [OR]: 5.67, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.72-18.7), serum albumin<3.7 g/dL (OR: 5.68, 95% CI: 1.18-27.03) and serum sodium (Na)<138 mequiv./L (OR: 10.0, 95% CI: 2.08-47.62), were associated with 3-month mortality.

CONCLUSION

MELD-Na and MELDNa provide better prognostic accuracy than the MELD for patients with acute decompensated hepatitis. The adequacy of liver reserve determines the outcome of these patients.

New model for end stage liver disease improves prognostic capability after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Cirrhotic patients undergoing transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) for refractory ascites or recurrent variceal bleeding are at risk for decompensation and death. This study examined whether a new model for end stage liver disease (MELD), which incorporates serum sodium (MELDNa), is a better predictor of death or transplant after TIPS than the original MELD.

METHODS

One hundred forty-eight consecutive patients undergoing nonemergent TIPS for refractory ascites or recurrent variceal bleeding from 1997 to 2006 at a single center were evaluated retrospectively. Cox model analysis was performed with death or transplant within 6 months as the end point. The models were compared using the Harrell's C index. Recursive partitioning determined the optimal MELDNa cutoff to maximize the risk:benefit ratio of TIPS.

RESULTS

The predictive ability of MELDNa was superior to MELD, particularly in patients with low MELD scores. The C indices (95% confidence interval [CI]) for MELDNa and MELD were 0.65 (95% CI, 0.55-0.71) and 0.58 (95% CI, 0.51-0.67) using a cut-off score of 18, and 0.72 (95% CI, 0.60-0.85) and 0.62 (95% CI, 0.49-0.74) using a cut-off score of 15. Using a MELDNa >15, 22% of patients were reclassified to a higher risk with an event rate of 44% compared with 10% when the score was

CONCLUSIONS

MELDNa performed better than MELD in predicting death or transplant after non-emergent TIPS, especially in patients with low MELD scores. A MELD score Collapse

Key Words Collapse

MESH Headings

• Adult
• Female
• Humans
• Liver Failure/diagnosis
• Liver Failure/therapy
• Male
• Middle Aged
• Models, Statistical
• Portasystemic Shunt, Surgical
• Prognosis
• Retrospective Studies
• Serum/chemistry
• Severity of Illness Index
• Sodium/blood
• Treatment Outcome

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Grants

• DK076565 NIDDK NIH HHS
• P30 DK026743 NIDDK NIH HHS
• KL2 RR024130 NCRR NIH HHS
• T32 DK060414 NIDDK NIH HHS
• DK060414 NIDDK NIH HHS
• K08 DK076565 NIDDK NIH HHS

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Affiliation(s)

Jennifer Guy Department of Medicine, Division of Gastroenterology, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, California, USA.
Ma Somsouk
Stephen Shiboski
Robert Kerlan
John M Inadomi
Scott W Biggins

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Collaborators Collapse

The evaluation of liver dysfunction: when to suspect portal hypertension

Portal hypertension, as a result of cirrhosis or other cause of liver dysfunction, is a life-threatening disease process. The risk of bleeding varices is high. Treatment options have much better outcomes when administered early on. The role of the PA in treating portal hypertension centers on recognizing the complications and understanding the medical management of those problems. Familiarity with the available treatment options can facilitate initiation of the most appropriate therapy for each patient. The best plan of action is to stabilize the patient and refer him or her to a tertiary center with clinicians who have experience in managing this uncommon problem.

[Comparison of the Model for End-stage Liver Disease and hepatic venous pressure gradient for predicting survival in patients with decompensated liver cirrhosis]

BACKGROUND/AIMS

This study compared the prognostic values of the Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) and the hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) in the prediction of death within 3 and 12 months in patients with decompensated liver cirrhosis.

METHODS

We used data from 136 consecutive patients with decompensated cirrhosis who underwent HVPG between January 2006 and June 2008. Cox regression analysis was used to investigate the independent relationships with death of MELD and HVPG. The prognostic accuracies of MELD and HVPG were analyzed by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) for the occurrence of death within 3 and 12 months.

RESULTS

Both MELD and HVPG were independent predictors of death [hazard ratio (HR)=1.11 and 1.12, respectively; 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.04~1.20 and 1.08-1.16]. Analysis of the AUROC demonstrated that the prognostic power did not differ between MELD and HVPG for predicting the 3-month survival (HR=0.76 and 0.68, respectively; 95% CI=0.62~0.89 and 0.52~0.84; P=0.22) or the 12-month survival (HR=0.72 and 0.73, 95% CI=0.61~0.83 and CI=0.61~0.84).

CONCLUSIONS

Both MELD and HVPG are independent prognostic factors of death within 3 and 12 months in patients with decompensated liver cirrhosis, and their accuracies are similar. However, HVPG has a limited role in the prediction of death in decompensated cirrhosis due to its invasiveness and limited use.

Prediction of mortality after emergent transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt placement: use of APACHE II, Child-Pugh and MELD scores in Asian patients with refractory variceal hemorrhage

Objective

This study was designed to determine if existing methods of grading liver function that have been developed in non-Asian patients with cirrhosis can be used to predict mortality in Asian patients treated for refractory variceal hemorrhage by the use of the transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) procedure.

Materials and Methods

Data for 107 consecutive patients who underwent an emergency TIPS procedure were retrospectively analyzed. Acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (APACHE II), Child-Pugh and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scores were calculated. Survival analyses were performed to evaluate the ability of the various models to predict 30-day, 60-day and 360-day mortality. The ability of stratified APACHE II, Child-Pugh, and MELD scores to predict survival was assessed by the use of Kaplan-Meier analysis with the log-rank test.

Results

No patient died during the TIPS procedure, but 82 patients died during the follow-up period. Thirty patients died within 30 days after the TIPS procedure; 37 patients died within 60 days and 53 patients died within 360 days. Univariate analysis indicated that hepatorenal syndrome, use of inotropic agents and mechanical ventilation were associated with elevated 30-day mortality (p < 0.05). Multivariate analysis showed that a Child-Pugh score > 11 or an MELD score > 20 predicted increased risk of death at 30, 60 and 360 days (p < 0.05). APACHE II scores could only predict mortality at 360 days (p < 0.05).

Conclusion

A Child-Pugh score > 11 or an MELD score > 20 are predictive of mortality in Asian patients with refractory variceal hemorrhage treated with the TIPS procedure. An APACHE II score is not predictive of early mortality in this patient population.

The transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS)

The creation of an intrahepatic portosystemic shunt via a transjugular approach (TIPS) is an interventional radiological procedure used to treat the complications of portal hypertension. TIPS insertion is principally indicated to prevent or arrest variceal bleeding when medical or endoscopic treatments fail, and in the management refractory ascites. This review discusses the development and execution of the technique, with focus on its clinical efficacy. Patient selection, imaging surveillance, revision techniques, and complications are also discussed.

Combination of peritumoral mast cells and T-regulatory cells predicts prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma

The peritumoral inflammatory environment is critical for the progression of intrahepatic recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after curative resections. Here, we investigated the relevance of peritumoral mast cells (MCs) to HCC outcomes. Peritumoral tryptase(+) MCs in addition to Foxp3(+) T-regulatory cells (Tregs) were evaluated using immunohistochemistry enumeration in tissue microarrays containing 207 randomly selected HCC patients. Clinicopathological factors and postoperative outcomes were compared between high and low subgroups of MCs or Tregs. Compared to low denstiy, higher peritumoral MCs were associated with poorer clinical outcomes, and independently related to elevated 5-year recurrence incidence (54.1%vs 39.2%, P = 0.026). High-dense MCs were especially related to increased probability of early recurrence (within 2 years) (P = 0.004). We also found that peritumoral Tregs were positively correlated with MCs in density (r = 0.353, P < 0.001) and reversely related to HCC outcomes. Notably, MCs in combination with Tregs displayed better prognostic performances than MCs alone (area under curve [AUC](survival) = 0.629 vs 0.589, AUC(recurrence) = 0.632 vs 0.591). Moreover, MCs were positively correlated to alanine aminotransferase, a serum inflammatory marker (P = 0.014). Therefore, peritumoral MCs are promising prognostic parameters for HCC mainly through inflammation response-related mechanisms, and we propose that MCs and Tregs may cooperate with each other and result in poorer prognosis.

Application of a biochemical and clinical model to predict individual survival in patients with end-stage liver disease

AIM: To investigate the capability of a biochemical and clinical model, BioCliM, in predicting the survival of cirrhotic patients.

METHODS: We prospectively evaluated the survival of 172 cirrhotic patients. The model was constructed using clinical (ascites, encephalopathy and variceal bleeding) and biochemical (serum creatinine and serum total bilirubin) variables that were selected from a Cox proportional hazards model. It was applied to estimate 12-, 52- and 104-wk survival. The model’s calibration using the Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic was computed at 104 wk in a validation dataset. Finally, the model’s validity was tested among an independent set of 85 patients who were stratified into 2 risk groups (low risk ≤ 8 and high risk > 8).

RESULTS: In the validation cohort, all measures of fit, discrimination and calibration were improved when the biochemical and clinical model was used. The proposed model had better predictive values (c-statistic: 0.90, 0.91, 0.91) than the Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) and Child-Pugh (CP) scores for 12-, 52- and 104-wk mortality, respectively. In addition, the Hosmer-Lemeshow (H-L) statistic revealed that the biochemical and clinical model (H-L, 4.69) is better calibrated than MELD (H-L, 17.06) and CP (H-L, 14.23). There were no significant differences between the observed and expected survival curves in the stratified risk groups (low risk, P = 0.61; high risk, P = 0.77).

CONCLUSION: Our data suggest that the proposed model is able to accurately predict survival in cirrhotic patients.

Renal haemodynamics and function following partial portal decompression

BACKGROUND

This study was undertaken to prospectively evaluate the impact of partial portal decompression on renal haemodynamics and renal function in patients with cirrhosis and portal hypertension.

METHODS

Fifteen consecutive patients (median age 49 years) with cirrhosis underwent partial portal decompression through portacaval shunting or transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunting (TIPS). Cirrhosis was caused by alcohol in 47%, hepatitis C in 13%, both in 33% and autoimmune factors in 7% of patients. Child class was A in 13%, B in 20% and C in 67% of patients. The median score on the Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) was 14.0 (mean 15.0 +/- 7.7). Serum creatinine (SrCr) and creatinine clearance (CrCl) were determined pre-shunt, 5 days after shunting and 1 year after shunting. Colour-flow Doppler ultrasound of the renal arteries was also undertaken with calculation of the resistive index (RI) and pulsatility index (PI). Changes in the portal vein-inferior vena cava pressure gradient with shunting were determined.

RESULTS

With shunting, the portal vein-inferior vena cava gradients dropped significantly, with significant increases in PI in the early period after shunting. Creatinine clearance improved in the early post-shunt period. However, SrCr levels did not significantly improve. At 1 year after shunting, both CrCl and SrCr levels tended towards pre-shunt levels and the increase in PI did not persist.

DISCUSSION

Partial portal decompression improves mild to moderate renal dysfunction in patients with cirrhosis. Early improvements in renal function after shunting begin to disappear by 1 year after shunting.

Peritumoral activated hepatic stellate cells predict poor clinical outcome in hepatocellular carcinoma after curative resection

The inflammatory components of the liver remnant after hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) resection are of prognostic importance. We evaluated prognostic potential of peritumoral activated hepatic stellate cells (HSCs) in 130 HCC cases. The messenger RNA (mRNA) levels of the functional genes in HSCs (ie, seprase, osteonectin, and tenascin-C), quantitated by real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction, and the density of peritumoral Foxp3+ T-regulatory cells (Tregs) and CD68+ macrophages (MPhi), assessed immunohistochemically in tissue microarray sections, were positively correlated with the density of peritumoral activated HSCs. The density (P= .007 for recurrence-free survival [RFS] and P=.021 for overall survival [OS]) and functional genes (seprase, P= .001 for RFS; osteonectin, P= .007 for RFS and P=.021 for OS) of peritumoral activated HSCs independently contributed to high recurrence or death rates, as did peritumoral Tregs or MPhi. Moreover, peritumoral HSCs were related to more early recurrences. It is important to note that the density of peritumoral activated HSCs, in combination with seprase and osteonectin mRNA or density of Tregs and MPhi, might predict prognoses more effectively.

Drug-Induced Liver Disease and Drug Use Considerations in Liver Disease

Chronic liver disease encompasses a large number of hepatic disorders. One of the most important etiologies of liver disease is drug-induced liver disease, which is the leading cause of liver failure in patients referred for liver transplantation in the United States. Drug-induced liver disease can present in all forms of acute and chronic liver disease with highly variable clinical presentations. There is no effective treatment for most drug-induced liver disease and the recognition and prevention of drug-induced liver disease remain the most important management strategy. Drug dosing in patients with liver disease represents an even more challenging task to clinicians, as there is only scant information on biomarkers that can be used to predict the pharmacokinetic changes of drugs in patients with underlying liver disease. Several factors contribute to alterations in drugs metabolism and clearance in cirrhotic patients, including the severity of the liver disease and the metabolic pathways of each individual drug. Only general guidelines on dosage adjustment in patients with hepatic impairment are available. When drugs with extensive hepatic metabolism are required in patients with preexisting liver disease, benefit of therapeutic effect must be evaluated against the risk of toxicity, and the drugs must be initiated with extreme caution with appropriate dosage reduction.

[Prognostic scores of cirrhosis]

Prognostic models are useful to estimate disease severity, establish expected survival in a specific situation, and calculate the risk of certain medical interventions. Of all the scores described in liver cirrhosis, those with the widest clinical applicability are the Child-Pugh classification and the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD). Although the Child-Pugh classification was used for many years to stratify patients and select those that can safely undergo liver surgery, currently this classification has been substituted by the MELD. This model uses only three simple and objective variables and has consequently become the most widely used instrument, especially to fix priorities when allocating organs in liver transplantation. Nevertheless, this model has some limitations since some indications for liver transplantation (hepatocarcinoma, metabolic diseases, etc.) and certain comorbidities in patients with cirrhosis (hepatic encephalopathy, hyponatremia, refractory ascites) are not well represented in the MELD.

Aetiology of cirrhosis of the liver has an impact on survival predicted by the Model of End-stage Liver Disease score

BACKGROUND

Originally, aetiology of liver disease has been incorporated into the computation of the Model of End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) score. Clinical observations prompted us to hypothesize that patients with viral and alcoholic cirrhosis may differ in predicted survival rates. Until now, no large representative studies evaluated the impact of aetiology on long-term survival predicted by the Child-Pugh and MELD scores.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Four hundred and ninety-three patients who underwent transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt implantation in Vienna, Austria, and Palermo, Italy, were included in this retrospective study. The main analyses were a logistic regression model and a Cox proportional hazards regression model calculating the interaction of the aetiology with the scores.

RESULTS

Both groups had similar survival rates (median 1377 and 1721 days for viral and alcoholic cirrhosis, respectively; P = 0.58), but patients with viral cirrhosis had significantly lower MELD scores (P = 0.002). In the Cox analysis, aetiology had a significant impact on the prediction of overall survival by MELD score. For 3-month survival, MELD score was adequately predictive for both groups. For 1-year survival, aetiology had a significant impact on survival, indicating that patients with identical scores but different aetiologies differed in survival rates. When stratifying patients into high- and low-risk patients (MELD < 16 vs. MELD >or= 16), aetiology of cirrhosis had no impact on the predictive value for low-risk patients; high-risk-patients (MELD >or= 16) with viral cirrhosis had significantly lower survival rates than patients with alcoholic cirrhosis and identical scores. With regard to Child-Pugh Score, no significant differences between the two patient groups and in the prediction of 3-month and 1-year survival could be observed.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study suggests that aetiology of cirrhosis has an impact on 1-year survival predicted by the MELD score. This becomes more apparent in patients with advanced stage of liver disease (MELD >or= 16). Since MELD score is used for ranking patients for liver transplantation and waiting times are regularly longer than 3 months, our observations suggest that with increasing time on the waiting list and severity of disease, patients with viral cirrhosis may have a disadvantage in the current allocation policy.

The MELD-Na is an independent short- and long-term prognostic predictor for hepatocellular carcinoma: a prospective survey

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Serum sodium has been suggested to incorporate into the model for end-stage liver disease to enhance its prognostic ability for cirrhosis. A mathematical equation based on model for end-stage liver disease and sodium, known as "MELD-Na", was developed for outcome prediction for cirrhosis. The severity of liver cirrhosis is a key component to predict survival in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma. This study investigated the prognostic role of MELD-Na for hepatocellular carcinoma.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A total of 535 unselected hepatocellular carcinoma patients were prospectively enrolled to evaluate the performance of MELD-Na.

RESULTS

The MELD-Na was better than model for end-stage liver disease in predicting 6-month mortality by comparing the area under receiver operating characteristic curve (0.782 vs. 0.761, p=0.101). MELD-Na, but not model for end-stage liver disease, was an independent predictor associated with 6-month mortality in multivariate logistic regression analysis (odds ratio: 1.14, p=0.001). In the survival analysis, MELD-Na also independently predicted mortality, with an additional risk of 4.3% per unit increment of the score (p<0.001). Patients with MELD-Na scores between 10 and 20 and scores >20 had 2.1-fold (p<0.001) and 7.5-fold (p<0.001) risk of mortality, respectively, compared to patients with a score <10 in the Cox proportional hazard model.

CONCLUSION

The MELD-Na score is a feasible and independent prognostic predictor for both short- and long-term outcome predictions in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma.

Elevated soluble tumor necrosis factor receptor 75 concentrations identify patients with liver cirrhosis at risk of death

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Elevated levels of the soluble 75-kd receptor for tumor necrosis factor-alpha (sTNF-R 75) are better predictors of mortality in cirrhosis than the Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score. Thus, we compared sTNF-R 75 with the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), CTP, and the sTNF-R 75/55 ratio.

METHODS

Ninety-two patients with liver cirrhosis (mean age, 55 years; range, 19-76 years; male, 66%; CTP stage C, 41%) were included in our prospective single-center survival study. The study setting was a tertiary care university clinic. Soluble TNF-R levels were determined, and the primary end point was death.

RESULTS

During > or =730 days, 44 patients died. Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed sTNF-R 75 (> or =14 ng/mL) as an independent predictor of mortality (hazard ratio, 2.53; P = .006). By receiver operating characteristic, MELD and sTNF-R 75 were more accurate in predicting 6-, 15-, and 24-month mortality than CTP and sTNF-R 75/55. This was significant for 6 months (MELD, 0.78; sTNF-R 75, 0.75 vs sTNF-R 75/55, 0.60). In patients with high MELD scores (> or =15), survival was further reduced if sTNF-R 75 values were elevated (P = .035).

CONCLUSIONS

Elevated sTNF-R 75 levels independently predicted mortality and improved MELD on the basis of evaluation of prognosis, especially in patients with high MELD scores. Thus, sTNF-R 75 levels might be a useful cytokine-based prognostic marker in patients with liver cirrhosis.

Comparison of four model for end-stage liver disease-based prognostic systems for cirrhosis

Serum sodium (Na) has been suggested for incorporation into the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) to enhance its prognostic ability for patients with cirrhosis. Three Na-containing models--the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease with the incorporation of serum sodium (MELD-Na), the integrated Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (iMELD), and the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease to sodium (MESO) index--were independently proposed for this purpose. This study investigated the accuracy of these 4 MELD-based models for outcome prediction. The c-statistic equivalent to the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), used to predict 3- and 6-month mortality, was calculated and compared in 825 patients with cirrhosis. The MELD score tended to be lower with increasing Na level. At 3 months of enrollment, the iMELD had the highest AUC (0.807) and was followed by the MELD-Na (0.801), MESO (0.784), and MELD (0.773); the difference between the MESO and MELD was statistically significant (P = 0.013). At 6 months, the iMELD still had the highest AUC (0.797) and was followed by the MELD-Na (0.778), MESO (0.747), and MELD (0.735); all comparisons showed significant differences between each other (all P < 0.01), with the exception of iMELD and MELD-Na (P = 0.18). With the most discriminative cutoffs, the specificity and negative predictive value were 70%-85% and 89%-97%, respectively, at 3 and 6 months for the 4 models. Patients with spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) consistently had significantly higher MELD-derived scores in all 4 models compared to patients without SBP (all P < 0.01). Patients with hepatic encephalopathy also had higher scores in all 4 models, although the statistical significance was established only for the iMELD (41.0 +/- 11.5 versus 37.6 +/- 9.1, P = 0.037). In conclusion, the incorporation of Na into the MELD may enhance prognostic accuracy. Both the iMELD and MELD-Na are better prognostic models for outcome prediction in patients with cirrhosis. Patients with SBP have a higher MELD-derived score. Future studies are warranted to define the optimal MELD-based prognostic model for cirrhosis.

Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt in the management of complications of portal hypertension

Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) is a commonly used approach for managing many complications of portal hypertension. It is an attractive option due to its relative ease of creation (> 90% success rate) and the availability at most hospitals of an interventional radiologist capable of performing the procedure. TIPS is the preferred approach to control acutely bleeding esophageal or gastric varices that cannot be controlled with medical management. It is also now preferred to surgical shunts for preventing rebleeding in patients who rebleed despite adequate medical management. TIPS is more effective than large-volume paracentesis in controlling refractory cirrhotic ascites, with possibly a slight survival benefit but also increased encephalopathy. TIPS should be used to control refractory ascites in patients who cannot be managed with large-volume paracentesis. The role of TIPS in the treatment of hepatorenal syndrome is unclear; currently only patients with type 2 hepatorenal syndrome should be considered candidates for TIPS.

Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunts in liver transplant recipients

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to determine the efficacy and safety of transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunts (TIPS) in liver transplant (LT) recipients with refractory ascites/variceal bleeding and to compare the observed outcomes with those obtained in cirrhotic controls.

METHODS

Clinical features of 14 LT recipients referred for TIPS placement between August 1985 and September 2006 were reviewed and compared with published series and 28 cirrhotic control patients undergoing TIPS.

RESULTS

The median age of the 14 LT recipients was 52 years, 57% had chronic hepatitis C virus and the median time from LT to TIPS placement was 46 months. Portal vein thromboses in two patients and a procedural complication in another patient precluded TIPS deployment. Among the 11 patients who completed TIPS, the mean hepatic venous pressure gradient was significantly reduced post-TIPS (18.3 +/- 6.1 to 9.0 +/- 3.5 mmHg, P<0.01). However, only 50% of the patients with varices had no further bleeding and 57% of the refractory ascites patients required no further paracentesis. In addition to a single peri-procedural death and renal failure in three others, four patients (29%) developed infection and nine (82%) developed new onset or worsening encephalopathy at a median of 11 days post-TIPS. The 1-year patient survival of 14% was substantially lower than that observed in other series of LT recipients (57-67%) as well as the matched cirrhotic control group undergoing TIPS (58%).

CONCLUSION

The frequent morbidity noted in LT recipients undergoing TIPS, coupled with the low 1-year patient survival, demonstrates that portal decompression provides only marginal short-term benefit in the absence of retransplantation.

Child-Pugh-Turcott versus Meld score for predicting survival in a retrospective cohort of black African cirrhotic patients

AIM: To compare the performance of the Child-Pugh-Turcott (CPT) score to that of the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score in predicting survival of a retrospective cohort of 172 Black African patients with cirrhosis on a short and mid-term basis.

METHODS: Univariate and multivariate (Cox model) analyses were used to identify factors related to mortality. Relationship between the two scores was appreciated by calculating the correlation coefficient. The Kaplan Meier method and the log rank test were used to elaborate and compare survival respectively. The Areas Under the Curves were used to compare the performance between scores at 3, 6 and 12 mo.

RESULTS: The study population comprised 172 patients, of which 68.9% were male. The mean age of the patient was 47.5 ± 13 years. Hepatitis B virus infection was the cause of cirrhosis in 70% of the cases. The overall mortality was 31.4% over 11 years of follow up. Independent factors significantly associated with mortality were: CPT score (HR = 3.3, 95% CI [1.7-6.2]) (P < 0.001) (stage C vs stage A-B); Serum creatine (HR = 2.5, 95% CI [1.4-4.3]) (P = 0.001) (Serum creatine > 1.5 mg/dL versus serum creatine < 1.5 mg/dL); MELD score (HR = 2.9, 95% CI [1.63-5.21]) (P < 0.001) (MELD > 21 vs MELD < 21). The area under the curves (AUC) that predict survival was 0.72 and 0.75 at 3 mo (P = 0.68), 0.64 and 0.62 at 6 mo (P = 0.67), 0.69 and 0.64 at 12 mo (P = 0.38) respectively for the CPT score and the MELD score.

CONCLUSION: The CPT score displays the same prognostic significance as does the MELD score in black African patients with cirrhosis. Moreover, its handling appears less cumbersome in clinical practice as compared to the latter.

Cholestasis and endogenous opioids: liver disease and exogenous opioid pharmacokinetics

A class of endogenous opioids is upregulated in liver disease particular to cholestasis, which contributes to symptoms in liver disease such as pruritus, hypotension and encephalopathy. Symptoms associated with cholestasis are reversed or at least ameliorated by mu opioid receptor antagonists. Palliation of symptoms related to cholestatic liver disease also involves bile acid binding agents. Opioid receptor antagonists, unlike bile acid binding agents, have been reported to relieve multiple symptoms, except for pruritus, and improve liver function as demonstrated in experimental cholestasis. Exogenous opioid pharmacology is altered by liver disease. Dose reduction or prolongation of dose intervals is necessary depending on the severity of liver disease.

From bed to bench: which attitude towards the laboratory liver tests should health care practitioners strike?

There is a general consensus in re-interpreting the so-called liver function tests in the light of novel discoveries. At the same time, recent evidence favours the use of different laboratory data to assess liver damage, fibrosis or regenerative process, but this point is not always shared. Actually, balancing the need for diagnosis, prognostic evaluation and therapy response of liver disease with a good cost/benefit ratio is very difficult. New tests are probably not needed but the aim should be for better utilization of existing tests to contain the increasing cost of health care.

Performance of the new MELD-Na score in predicting 3-month and 1-year mortality in Chinese patients with chronic hepatitis B

The new Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD)-Na score has been validated in a population predominantly affected by chronic hepatitis C and alcoholic liver disease. We aimed to validate the score in Chinese patients with chronic hepatitis B-related complications admitted to the hospital from 1996 to 2003. MELD and the new MELD-Na scores (MELD-Na = MELD + 1.59 [135 - Na] with maximum and minimum Na of 135 and 120 mmol/L, respectively) on initial admissions were calculated. Cox proportional hazard model was used to assess factors associated with mortality. The area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) was used to compare the predictive abilities of MELD and MELD-Na scores for 3-month and 1-yr mortalities. Patients with hepatocellular carcinoma were excluded. A total of 2,073 patients with liver disease were admitted during the study period and 363 patients had chronic hepatitis B-related complications other than hepatocellular carcinoma. At a median follow-up of 106 weeks, 134 patients died and 14 received liver transplantation. Patients with MELD-Na scores 11-20, 21-30, and >30 had mortality increased by 2.0-fold, 4.7-fold, and 7.6-fold, respectively, compared to patients with scores < or =10. At 3 months and 1 yr, the AUC of the MELD-Na score (0.75 and 0.79, respectively) was superior to those of the MELD score (0.72 and 0.75, respectively) (P = 0.004) in predicting mortality. In conclusion, the new MELD-Na score is a valid model to predict mortality in patients with complications of chronic hepatitis B.

An integrated MELD model including serum sodium and age improves the prediction of early mortality in patients with cirrhosis

The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) is widely used to predict the short-term mortality in patients with cirrhosis, but potential limitations of this score have been reported. The aim of this study was to improve the score's prognostic accuracy by assessing new objective variables. Data of 310 consecutive patients with cirrhosis who underwent elective transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt placement between July 1995 and March 2005 were analyzed retrospectively. Bivariate and multivariate analyses were performed by proportional hazard Cox regression models. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (auROC) and the likelihood ratio test were used to evaluate the performance of the models for predicting early mortality. Findings were validated in a cohort of 451 consecutive patients with cirrhosis on waiting list for liver transplantation. Bivariate analyses showed that the following variables correlated with time to death: age, serum bilirubin, serum creatinine, international normalized ratio of prothrombin time, serum albumin, serum sodium, and MELD. Multivariate analysis revealed that MELD, serum sodium, and age were independently associated with the risk of death. The integrated MELD model (iMELD, incorporating serum sodium and age) was better than original MELD in predicting 12-month mortality: auROC increased by 13.4% and the likelihood ratio statistic from 23.5 to 48.2. The improved accuracy of iMELD was confirmed in the validation sample of 451 patients with cirrhosis on the waiting list for liver transplantation by increasing auROC (+8%) and likelihood ratio statistic (from 41.4 to 82.0). This study shows that in patients with cirrhosis, serum sodium and age are predictors of mortality independent of the MELD score. The incorporation of these variables into the original MELD formula improves the predictive accuracy of time to death.

Correlation and comparison of the model for end-stage liver disease, portal pressure, and serum sodium for outcome prediction in patients with liver cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG), and serum sodium (SNa) are important prognostic markers for patients with liver cirrhosis. The correlation among these markers and their predictive accuracy for survival are unclear.

METHODS

A total of 213 cirrhotic patients undergoing hemodynamic measurement were analyzed. The correlations between MELD score, SNa, and hemodynamic parameters were investigated.

RESULTS

There was a significant correlation between MELD and HVPG (r=0.255, P<0.001), between SNa and MELD (r=-0.483, P<0.001), and between HVPG and SNa (r=-0.213, P=0.002). Using mortality as the end-point, the area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for MELD was 0.789, compared with 0.659 for HVPG (P=0.165) and 0.860 for SNa (P=0.34) at 3 months; the difference between HVPG and SNa was significant (P=0.015). The AUC at 6 months was significantly higher for SNa and MELD compared with that of HVPG. Among 134 patients with low (<14) MELD scores, a high (>16 mm Hg) HVPG, and low SNa (<135 mEq/L) predicted early mortality. In the Cox multivariate model, MELD, HVPG, and Child-Turcotte-Pugh scores were consistently identified as independent poor prognostic predictors when they were treated either as dichotomous or continuous variables in the model.

CONCLUSIONS

MELD score is closely associated with HVPG and SNa in cirrhotic patients. HVPG is not superior to MELD score or SNa for short-term outcome prediction. High HVPG and low SNa may identify high-risk patients with low MELD scores. High MELD, HVPG, and Child-Turcotte-Pugh scores are independent predictors of poor long-term survival.

Applicability of MELD as a short-term prognostic indicator in patients with chronic liver disease: an Indian experience

BACKGROUND

The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), which employs objective variables, statistical weighting and a continuous scale, has replaced the Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) classification as the scoring system of choice in several liver transplant centers. However, the predictive ability of MELD has never been prospectively evaluated in India. The aim of this study was to examine the MELD score, the CTP score and the recently proposed modified CTP score in Indian patients with liver cirrhosis to determine their correlation and compare their prognostic significance for short-term survival.

METHODS

A total of 76 patients with cirrhosis (mean age 46.97 years) were prospectively evaluated and followed up for 6 months. MELD score, CTP score and modified CTP score were calculated at baseline. The correlation between variables was evaluated by Pearson's correlation test. Receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to determine the cutoff values for each score with the best sensitivity and specificity in discriminating between patients who survived and those who died.

RESULTS

Alcoholic liver disease was the most common (50%) etiology of cirrhosis. MELD score and CTP score showed very good correlation (Pearson correlation r = 0.983). ROC curve showed area under curve (c-statistics) for MELD score, CTP score and modified CTP score as 0.764, 0.804 and 0.817, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The MELD score was not found to be superior to CTP score and modified CTP score for short-term prognostication of patients with cirrhosis in this study.

Early and late outcome of cardiac surgery in patients with liver cirrhosis

Liver cirrhosis is a major risk factor in general surgery. Few studies have reported on the outcome of cardiac surgery in these patients. Herein we report our recent experience in this high-risk patient population according to the Child-Turcotte-Pugh classification and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score. Between January 1998 and December 2004, 27 patients (mean age 58 +/- 10 yr, 20 male) with cirrhosis who underwent cardiac surgery were identified. Patients were in Child-Turcotte-Pugh class A (n = 10), B (n = 11), and C (n = 6) and mean MELD score was 14.2 +/- 4.2. Operative mortality was 26% (n = 7). Stratified mortality according to Child-Turcotte-Pugh class was 11%, 18%, and 67% for class A, B, and C, respectively. No mortality occurred in patients who had revascularization without the use of cardiopulmonary bypass (n = 5). The 1-yr survival was 80%, 45%, and 16% for Child-Turcotte-Pugh class A, B, and C, respectively (P = 0.02). Major postoperative complications occurred in 22%, 56%, and 100% for Child-Turcotte-Pugh class A, B, and C, respectively. Child-Turcotte-Pugh classification was a better predictor of hospital mortality (P = 0.02) compared to MELD score (P = 0.065). In conclusion, our results suggest that cardiac surgery can be performed safely in patients with Child-Turcotte-Pugh class A and selected patients with class B. Operative mortality remains high in class C patients. Careful patient selection is critical in order to improve surgical outcome in patients with cirrhosis.

Can the model for end-stage liver disease be used to predict the prognosis in patients with Budd-Chiari syndrome?

The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) is a widely accepted and objective scoring system for end-stage liver disease (ESLD) but has never been evaluated for Budd-Chiari syndrome (BCS). We investigated whether MELD can be used to predict survival in patients with BCS. Patients with BCS (n = 237) were obtained from a large international study. Patients with ESLD (n = 281) were used to compare the discriminative ability of MELD in BCS versus other chronic liver diseases. MELD and the Rotterdam BCS index, a recently developed prognostic index for BCS, were calculated with standard equations. Receiver operating characteristic curves and concordance statistics (c-statistics) were used to assess the models' ability to predict 1-year survival. The median MELD score was 12.5 (range = -7.4 to 43.4) for BCS and 11.3 (-3.0 to 49.5) for ESLD (P = 0.12). The c-statistic of MELD in BCS was 0.695 [95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.59-0.80], in contrast to 0.848 (95% CI = 0.80-0.90) in ESLD. Survival was significantly poorer in ESLD than in BCS (P < 0.001). The c-statistic of the Rotterdam BCS index was 0.760 (95% CI = 0.67-0.85). The correlation between MELD and the Rotterdam BCS index was 0.61, and most of the discrepancy existed in BCS patients with a high prevalence of ascites and encephalopathy and preserved liver function. The addition of ascites and encephalopathy to MELD improved the c-statistic to 0.751 (95% CI = 0.65-0.85). In conclusion, MELD showed a suboptimal discriminative ability to predict survival in BCS. This was explained by the highly variable degree of liver dysfunction and hence clinical outcome in BCS in contrast to ESLD.

Model for end-stage liver disease score to serum sodium ratio index as a prognostic predictor and its correlation with portal pressure in patients with liver cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

The models for end-stage liver disease (MELD) and serum sodium (SNa) are important prognostic markers in cirrhosis. A novel index, MELD to SNa ratio (MESO), was developed to amplify the opposing effect of MELD and SNa on outcome prediction.

METHODS

A total of 213 cirrhotic patients undergoing hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) measurement were retrospectively analyzed.

RESULTS

The MESO index correlated with HVPG (r=0.258, P<0.001) and Child-Pugh score (rho=0.749, P<0.001). Using mortality as the end point, the area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.860 for SNa, 0.795 for the MESO index and 0.789 for MELD (P values all >0.3) at 3 months. Among patients with Child-Pugh class A or B, the MESO index had a significantly higher AUC compared with MELD (0.80 vs. 0.766, P<0.001). A MESO index <1.6 identified 97% of patients who survived at 3 months and the predicted survival rate was 96.5%. In survival analysis, MESO index >1.6 independently predicted a higher mortality rate (relative risk: 3.32, P<0001) using the Cox model.

CONCLUSIONS

The MESO index, which takes into account the predictive power of both MELD and SNa, is a useful prognostic predictor for both short- and long-term survival in cirrhotic patients.

Predictors of early mortality after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt creation for the treatment of refractory ascites

PURPOSE

Currently there is no consensus regarding a target portosystemic gradient (PSG) after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) creation for the treatment of refractory ascites. The goal of this study was to examine whether the PSG after TIPS creation is predictive of subsequent mortality risk.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Retrospective review of 99 patients who underwent successful TIPS creation for refractory ascites between January 1997 and December 2004 was performed. Follow-up consisted of clinic and emergency department visits, hospital admissions, and radiology studies (mean, 7 months). Comparison of baseline patient characteristics was performed between survivors and patients who died. Survival rates were calculated with use of the Kaplan-Meier method and compared with the log-rank test based on Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) scores and PSGs before and after TIPS creation. Univariate and multivariate analysis of potential predictors of mortality was performed with Cox proportional-hazards analysis.

RESULTS

Sixteen patients died during follow-up (mean, 1.9 months after TIPS creation). The patients who died had significantly higher MELD scores before TIPS creation than did survivors (P = .04) and significantly lower PSGs before and after TIPS creation (P = .02 and P = .03, respectively). Survival rates were significantly lower for patients with higher MELD scores (P = .01) and lower PSGs before TIPS creation (P = .01) and after TIPS creation (P = .01). Multivariate analysis demonstrated that Child class C cirrhosis, MELD score greater than 25, and PSG less than 8 mm Hg after TIPS creation were the most significant predictors of mortality (increased likelihood by factors of 4, 5, and 3, respectively).

CONCLUSION

Excessive reduction of the PSG along with severe liver dysfunction is associated with an increased risk of mortality after TIPS creation in patients presenting with refractory ascites.

Prevention of recurrent haemorrhage

Patients who survive a first bleeding episode of oesophageal varices have a high risk of rebleeding, which is associated with a high mortality rate. Prevention of a recurrent haemorrhage is therefore recommended. Patients who were not on a primary prophylaxis should be treated with non-selective beta-adrenoceptor antagonists, endoscopic band ligation or both. If beta-blockers are not tolerated or are contraindicated, patients should be treated with endoscopic band ligation. If these preventive strategies fail, transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (covered) or a small-diameter surgical shunt is indicated.

Preshunt liver function remains the prominent determinant of survival after portasystemic shunting

BACKGROUND

Forty-five years after the development of the Child classification, we sought to determine if hepatic function is still a primary determinant between short-term and long-term survival after portasystemic shunting.

METHODS

One hundred forty-six patients underwent small-diameter prosthetic H-graft portacaval shunting (HGPCS). The patients were stratified into 2 groups: those surviving less than 5 years and those surviving more than 5 years. Preoperative data determined Child class and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score.

RESULTS

Ninety-four (64%) patients were short-term and 52 (36%) patients were long-term survivors. No significant differences in the cause of cirrhosis, presence of ascites, encephalopathy, or emergency operations were noted between short- and long-term survivors. Preshunt MELD scores were significantly greater with short-term survivors, although actual survival was superior to predicted survival by MELD. Child class was inferior for short-term survivors. Child class and MELD score significantly correlated with survival after portasystemic shunting.

CONCLUSIONS

Long-term survival after HGPCS is possible even with severe hepatic dysfunction; however, actual survival is superior to predicted survival. Hepatic dysfunction, as denoted by Child class and MELD, still remains a primary determinant of survival after portasystemic shunting.

Limitation of the model for end-stage liver disease for outcome prediction in patients with cirrhosis-related complications

The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) has been used to prioritize cirrhotic patients awaiting liver transplantation. Bleeding esophageal varices, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis and hepatic encephalopathy are major complications of cirrhosis and traditional indications for liver transplantation evaluation. However, these complications are not included in the MELD and it is not clear if these complications correlate with MELD score in terms of outcome prediction. This study aimed to investigate the feasibility of cirrhosis-related complication as a prognostic predictor in 290 cirrhotic patients. The MELD score and outcome were compared between patients with and without cirrhosis-related complications. There was no significant difference of the MELD score between patients with (n = 67) and without (n = 223) complications (11.6 +/- 2.9 vs. 12.2 +/- 3.2, p = 0.184). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.687 for MELD vs. 0.604 for complications (p = 0.174) at six months, and the area was 0.641 for MELD vs. 0.611 for complications (p = 0.522) at 12 months. A high MELD score and presence of complications had a similar profile of predictive accuracy and both were significant predictors of mortality at six and 12 months in multivariate logistic regression analysis. Patients with cirrhosis-related complications at presentation had a decreased survival compared with those without complications (p < 0.0001). In conclusion, the occurrence of cirrhosis-related complications is a predictor of poor prognosis. While early transplantation referral is recommended, these patients do not necessarily have a higher MELD score and could be down-staged in the MELD era.

Coagulation disorders and hemostasis in liver disease: pathophysiology and critical assessment of current management

Normal coagulation has classically been conceptualized as a Y-shaped pathway, with distinct "intrinsic" and "extrinsic" components initiated by factor XII or factor VIIa/tissue factor, respectively, and converging in a "common" pathway at the level of the FXa/FVa (prothrombinase) complex. Until recently, the lack of an established alternative concept of hemostasis has meant that most physicians view the "cascade" as a model of physiology. This view has been reinforced by the fact that screening coagulation tests (APTT, prothrombin time--INR) are often used as though they are generally predictive of clinical bleeding. The shortcomings of this older model of normal coagulation are nowhere more apparent than in its clinical application to the complex coagulation disorders of acute and chronic liver disease. In this condition, the clotting cascade is heavily influenced by numerous currents and counter-currents resulting in a mixture of pro- and anticoagulant forces that are themselves further subject to change with altered physiological stress such as super-imposed infection or renal failure. This report represents a summary of a recent multidisciplinary symposium held in Charlottesville, VA. We present an overview of the coagulation system in liver disease with emphasis on the limitations of the current clinical paradigm and the need for a critical re-evaluation of the current tenets governing clinical practice. With the realization that there is often limited or conflicting data, we have attempted to represent diverse opinion and experience from the perspectives of both hepatology and hematology beginning with a brief update on the physiology of normal coagulation.