Biological extinction in earth history

The evolutionary significance of mass extinctions

Local extinctions of populations, species or groups of species in a particular area are commonly observed by biologists. There are also historical records of the total extinction of single species such as the Dodo, the Great Auk and the Tasmanian Wolf. Mass extinctions are on a much larger scale, and their study is based on the fossil record. The aims of this review are to explore the nature of mass extinctions and their evolutionary significance. The key questions are: what is mass extinction, what are the causes of mass extinctions, do mass extinctions follow a regular pattern, and how do mass extinctions affect our understanding of evolutionary processes?

Marine planktonic microbes survived climatic instabilities in the past

In the geological past, changes in climate and tectonic activity are thought to have spurred the tempo of evolutionary change among major taxonomic groups of plants and animals. However, the extent to which these historical contingencies increased the risk of extinction of microbial plankton species remains largely unknown. Here, I analyse fossil records of marine planktonic diatoms and calcareous nannoplankton over the past 65 million years from the world oceans and show that the probability of species' extinction is not correlated with secular changes in climatic instability. Further supporting these results, analyses of genera survivorship curves based on fossil data concurred with the predictions of a birth-death model that simulates the extinction of genera through time assuming stochastically constant rates of speciation and extinction. However, my results also show that these marine microbes responded to exceptional climatic contingencies in a manner that appears to have promoted net diversification. These results highlight the ability of marine planktonic microbes to survive climatic instabilities in the geological past, and point to different mechanisms underlying the processes of speciation and extinction in these micro-organisms.

How cancer shapes evolution, and how evolution shapes cancer

Evolutionary theories are critical for understanding cancer development at the level of species as well as at the level of cells and tissues, and for developing effective therapies. Animals have evolved potent tumor suppressive mechanisms to prevent cancer development. These mechanisms were initially necessary for the evolution of multi-cellular organisms, and became even more important as animals evolved large bodies and long lives. Indeed, the development and architecture of our tissues were evolutionarily constrained by the need to limit cancer. Cancer development within an individual is also an evolutionary process, which in many respects mirrors species evolution. Species evolve by mutation and selection acting on individuals in a population; tumors evolve by mutation and selection acting on cells in a tissue. The processes of mutation and selection are integral to the evolution of cancer at every step of multistage carcinogenesis, from tumor genesis to metastasis. Factors associated with cancer development, such as aging and carcinogens, have been shown to promote cancer evolution by impacting both mutation and selection processes. While there are therapies that can decimate a cancer cell population, unfortunately, cancers can also evolve resistance to these therapies, leading to the resurgence of treatment-refractory disease. Understanding cancer from an evolutionary perspective can allow us to appreciate better why cancers predominantly occur in the elderly, and why other conditions, from radiation exposure to smoking, are associated with increased cancers. Importantly, the application of evolutionary theory to cancer should engender new treatment strategies that could better control this dreaded disease.

Diversity-dependence brings molecular phylogenies closer to agreement with the fossil record

The branching times of molecular phylogenies allow us to infer speciation and extinction dynamics even when fossils are absent. Troublingly, phylogenetic approaches usually return estimates of zero extinction, conflicting with fossil evidence. Phylogenies and fossils do agree, however, that there are often limits to diversity. Here, we present a general approach to evaluate the likelihood of a phylogeny under a model that accommodates diversity-dependence and extinction. We find, by likelihood maximization, that extinction is estimated most precisely if the rate of increase in the number of lineages in the phylogeny saturates towards the present or first decreases and then increases. We demonstrate the utility and limits of our approach by applying it to the phylogenies for two cases where a fossil record exists (Cetacea and Cenozoic macroperforate planktonic foraminifera) and to three radiations lacking fossil evidence (Dendroica, Plethodon and Heliconius). We propose that the diversity-dependence model with extinction be used as the standard model for macro-evolutionary dynamics because of its biological realism and flexibility.

Integrating ecology into macroevolutionary research

On 9 March, over 150 biologists gathered in London for the Centre for Ecology and Evolution spring symposium, 'Integrating Ecology into Macroevolutionary Research'. The event brought together researchers from London-based institutions alongside others from across the UK, Europe and North America for a day of talks. The meeting highlighted methodological advances and recent analyses of exemplar datasets focusing on the exploration of the role of ecological processes in shaping macroevolutionary patterns.

Extinctions in heterogeneous environments and the evolution of modularity

Extinctions of local subpopulations are common events in nature. Here, we ask whether such extinctions can affect the design of biological networks within organisms over evolutionary timescales. We study the impact of extinction events on modularity of biological systems, a common architectural principle found on multiple scales in biology. As a model system, we use networks that evolve toward goals specified as desired input–output relationships. We use an extinction–recolonization model, in which metapopulations occupy and migrate between different localities. Each locality displays a different environmental condition (goal), but shares the same set of subgoals with other localities. We find that in the absence of extinction events, the evolved computational networks are typically highly optimal for their localities with a nonmodular structure. In contrast, when local populations go extinct from time to time, we find that the evolved networks are modular in structure. Modular circuitry is selected because of its ability to adapt rapidly to the conditions of the free niche following an extinction event. This rapid adaptation is mainly achieved through genetic recombination of modules between immigrants from neighboring local populations. This study suggests, therefore, that extinctions in heterogeneous environments promote the evolution of modular biological network structure, allowing local populations to effectively recombine their modules to recolonize niches.

Phylogenetic Approaches to the Study of Extinction

Species extinction is both a key process throughout the history of life and a pressing concern in the conservation of present-day biodiversity. These two facets have largely been studied by separate communities using different approaches. This article illustrates with examples some of the ways that considering the evolutionary relationships among species—phylogenies—has helped the study of both past and present species extinction. The focus is on three topics: extinction rates and severities, phylogenetic nonrandomness of extinction, and the testing of hypotheses relating extinction-proneness to attributes of organisms or species. Phylogenetic and taxic approaches to extinction have not fully fused, largely because of the difficulties of relating discrete taxa to the underlying continuity of phylogeny. Phylogeny must be considered in comparative tests of hypotheses about extinction, but care must be taken to avoid overcorrecting for phylogenetic nonindependence among taxa.

Colloquium paper: dynamics of origination and extinction in the marine fossil record

The discipline-wide effort to database the fossil record at the occurrence level has made it possible to estimate marine invertebrate extinction and origination rates with much greater accuracy. The new data show that two biotic mechanisms have hastened recoveries from mass extinctions and confined diversity to a relatively narrow range over the past 500 million years (Myr). First, a drop in diversity of any size correlates with low extinction rates immediately afterward, so much so that extinction would almost come to a halt if diversity dropped by 90%. Second, very high extinction rates are followed by equally high origination rates. The two relationships predict that the rebound from the current mass extinction will take at least 10 Myr, and perhaps 40 Myr if it rivals the Permo-Triassic catastrophe. Regardless, any large event will result in a dramatic ecological and taxonomic restructuring of the biosphere. The data also confirm that extinction and origination rates both declined through the Phanerozoic and that several extinctions in addition to the Permo-Triassic event were particularly severe. However, the trend may be driven by taxonomic biases and the rates vary in accord with a simple log normal distribution, so there is no sharp distinction between background and mass extinctions. Furthermore, the lack of any significant autocorrelation in the data is inconsistent with macroevolutionary theories of periodicity or self-organized criticality.

Evolutionary responses to environmental changes: how does competition affect adaptation?

The role and importance of ecological interactions for evolutionary responses to environmental changes is to large extent unknown. Here it is shown that interspecific competition may slow down rates of adaptation substantially and fundamentally change patterns of adaptation to long-term environmental changes. In the model investigated here, species compete for resources distributed along an ecological niche space. Environmental change is represented by a slowly moving resource maximum and evolutionary responses of single species are compared with responses of coalitions of two and three competing species. In scenarios with two and three species, species that are favored by increasing resource availability increase in equilibrium population size whereas disfavored species decline in size. Increased competition makes it less favorable for individuals of a disfavored species to occupy a niche close to the maximum and reduces the selection pressure for tracking the moving resource distribution. Individual-based simulations and an analysis using adaptive dynamics show that the combination of weaker selection pressure and reduced population size reduces the evolutionary rate of the disfavored species considerably. If the resource landscape moves stochastically, weak evolutionary responses cause large fluctuations in population size and thereby large extinction risk for competing species, whereas a single species subject to the same environmental variability may track the resource maximum closely and maintain a much more stable population size. Other studies have shown that competitive interactions may amplify changes in mean population sizes due to environmental changes and thereby increase extinction risks. This study accentuates the harmful role of competitive interactions by illustrating that they may also decrease rates of adaptation. The slowdown in evolutionary rates caused by competition may also contribute to explain low rates of morphological change in spite of large environmental fluctuations found in fossil records.

How can a knowledge of the past help to conserve the future? Biodiversity conservation and the relevance of long-term ecological studies

This paper evaluates how long-term records could and should be utilized in conservation policy and practice. Traditionally, there has been an extremely limited use of long-term ecological records (greater than 50 years) in biodiversity conservation. There are a number of reasons why such records tend to be discounted, including a perception of poor scale of resolution in both time and space, and the lack of accessibility of long temporal records to non-specialists. Probably more important, however, is the perception that even if suitable temporal records are available, their roles are purely descriptive, simply demonstrating what has occurred before in Earth's history, and are of little use in the actual practice of conservation. This paper asks why this is the case and whether there is a place for the temporal record in conservation management. Key conservation initiatives related to extinctions, identification of regions of greatest diversity/threat, climate change and biological invasions are addressed. Examples of how a temporal record can add information that is of direct practicable applicability to these issues are highlighted. These include (i) the identification of species at the end of their evolutionary lifespan and therefore most at risk from extinction, (ii) the setting of realistic goals and targets for conservation 'hotspots', and (iii) the identification of various management tools for the maintenance/restoration of a desired biological state. For climate change conservation strategies, the use of long-term ecological records in testing the predictive power of species envelope models is highlighted, along with the potential of fossil records to examine the impact of sea-level rise. It is also argued that a long-term perspective is essential for the management of biological invasions, not least in determining when an invasive is not an invasive. The paper concludes that often inclusion of a long-term ecological perspective can provide a more scientifically defensible basis for conservation decisions than the one based only on contemporary records. The pivotal issue of this paper is not whether long-term records are of interest to conservation biologists, but how they can actually be utilized in conservation practice and policy.

How can a knowledge of the past help to conserve the future? Biodiversity conservation and the relevance of long-term ecological studies

This paper evaluates how long-term records could and should be utilized in conservation policy and practice. Traditionally, there has been an extremely limited use of long-term ecological records (greater than 50 years) in biodiversity conservation. There are a number of reasons why such records tend to be discounted, including a perception of poor scale of resolution in both time and space, and the lack of accessibility of long temporal records to non-specialists. Probably more important, however, is the perception that even if suitable temporal records are available, their roles are purely descriptive, simply demonstrating what has occurred before in Earth's history, and are of little use in the actual practice of conservation. This paper asks why this is the case and whether there is a place for the temporal record in conservation management. Key conservation initiatives related to extinctions, identification of regions of greatest diversity/threat, climate change and biological invasions are addressed. Examples of how a temporal record can add information that is of direct practicable applicability to these issues are highlighted. These include (i) the identification of species at the end of their evolutionary lifespan and therefore most at risk from extinction, (ii) the setting of realistic goals and targets for conservation 'hotspots', and (iii) the identification of various management tools for the maintenance/restoration of a desired biological state. For climate change conservation strategies, the use of long-term ecological records in testing the predictive power of species envelope models is highlighted, along with the potential of fossil records to examine the impact of sea-level rise. It is also argued that a long-term perspective is essential for the management of biological invasions, not least in determining when an invasive is not an invasive. The paper concludes that often inclusion of a long-term ecological perspective can provide a more scientifically defensible basis for conservation decisions than the one based only on contemporary records. The pivotal issue of this paper is not whether long-term records are of interest to conservation biologists, but how they can actually be utilized in conservation practice and policy.

Species lifetime distribution for simple models of ecologies

Interpretation of empirical results based on a taxa's lifetime distribution shows apparently conflicting results. Species' lifetime is reported to be exponentially distributed, whereas higher-order taxa, such as families or genera, follow a broader distribution, compatible with power-law decay. We show that both forms of evidence are consistent with a simple evolutionary model that does not require specific assumptions on species interaction. The model provides a zero-order description of the dynamics of ecological communities, and its species lifetime distribution can be computed exactly. Different behaviors are found as follows: an initial t(-3/2) power law, emerging from a random walk type of dynamics, which crosses over to a steeper t(-2) branching process-like regime and finally is cut off by an exponential decay that becomes weaker and weaker as the total population increases. Sampling effects also can be taken into account and shown to be relevant. If species in the fossil record were sampled according to the Fisher log-series distribution, lifetime should be distributed according to a t(-1) power law. Such variability of behaviors in a simple model, combined with the scarcity of data available, casts serious doubt on the possibility of validating theories of evolution on the basis of species lifetime data.

Evolutionary dynamics and highly optimized tolerance

We develop a numerical model of a lattice community based on Highly Optimized Tolerance (HOT), which relates the evolution of complexity to robustness tradeoffs in an uncertain environment. With the model, we explore scenarios for evolution and extinction which are abstractions of processes which are commonly discussed in biological and ecological case studies. These include the effects of different habitats on the phenotypic traits of the organisms, the effects of different mutation rates on adaptation, fitness, and diversity, and competition between generalists and specialists. The model exhibits a wide variety of microevolutionary and macroevolutionary phenomena which can arise in organisms which are subject to random mutation, and selection based on fitness evaluated in a specific environment. Generalists arise in uniform habitats, where different disturbances occur with equal frequency, while specialists arise when the relative frequency of different disturbances is skewed. Fast mutators are seen to play a primary role in adaptation, while slow mutators preserve well-adapted configurations. When uniform and skewed habitats are coupled through migration of the organisms, we observe a primitive form of punctuated equilibrium. Rare events in the skewed habitat lead to extinction of the specialists, whereupon generalists invade from the uniform habitat, adapt to their new surroundings, ultimately leading their progeny to become vulnerable to extinction in a subsequent rare disturbance.

Evolutionary ecology in silico: Does mathematical modelling help in understanding 'generic' trends?

Motivated by the results of recent laboratory experiments, as well as many earlier field observations, that evolutionary changes can take place in ecosystems over relatively short ecological time scales, several 'unified' mathematical models of evolutionary ecology have been developed over the last few years with the aim of describing the statistical properties of data related to the evolution of ecosystems. Moreover, because of the availability of sufficiently fast computers, it has become possible to carry out detailed computer simulations of these models. For the sake of completeness and to put these recent developments in perspective, we begin with a brief summary of some older models of ecological phenomena and evolutionary processes. However, the main aim of this article is to review critically these 'unified' models, particularly those published in the physics literature, in simple language that makes the new theories accessible to a wider audience.

Evolution of mechanoregulation of bone growth will lead to non-optimal bone phenotypes

Mechanical forces acting on the bones during growth affect their final shape and strength. Mechanoregulation of bone growth may be recognized in embryogenesis, and also in the adaptation of the adult skeleton to changes in mechanical loading. Mechanoregulatory responses for tissues have arisen during evolution, but does evolution give rise to responses that produce optimal skeletal phenotypes? In this paper, we investigate the emergence of an optimal mechanoregulation response in a population. By combining equations describing long bone growth with a genetic algorithm to describe evolutionary change, we created a computational model to simulate the evolution of mechanoregulation in bone growth. A population of individuals is created where each individual is assigned a diploid gene set which controls the growth and remodelling of the bone. At maturity, each bone is assessed and its 'fitness' calculated; fitness is quantified as bone strength relative to bone mass. The simulation continues for many generations, and includes mutations and a varying environment. The genes present in the population are tracked and the evolution of parameters governing mechanoregulation is calculated. The results indicate that a population may converge to one bone growth algorithm but, more usually, a range of mechanoregulation algorithms for different individuals will persist after many generations. Even if the population converges to one mechanoregulation law, convergence to the 'optimum' bone was never found. Although many researchers propose that natural selection has pushed skeletal structure towards an optimum, our computational model suggests that this is unlikely to be the case.

Simple bit-string model for lineage branching

We introduce a population dynamics model, where individual genomes are represented by bit strings. Selection is described by death probabilities which depend on these genomes, and new individuals continuously replace the ones that die, keeping the population constant. An offspring has the same genome as its (randomly chosen) parent, except for a small amount of (also random) mutations. Chance may thus generate a newborn with a genome that is better than that of its parent, and the newborn will have a smaller death probability. When this happens, this individual is a would-be founder of a new lineage. A new lineage is considered created if the number of its live descendants grows above a certain previously defined threshold. The time evolution of populations evolving under these rules is followed by computer simulations and the probability densities of lineage duration and size, among others, are computed. These densities show a scale-free behavior, in accordance with some conjectures in paleoevolution, and suggesting a simple mechanism as explanation for the ubiquity of these power laws.

Cenozoic bolide impacts and biotic change in North American mammals

North American mammals experienced a major mass extinction at the Cretaceous/Tertiary (K/T) boundary that is tied unambiguously to the Chicxulub impact event. Immediately afterwards, there was an immense adaptive radiation that greatly expanded taxonomic diversity and the range of body sizes and ecological strategies. However, ties between later, Cenozoic impact events and specific episodes in mammalian evolution cannot be demonstrated. A time series of maximum known crater sizes within 1.0-million-year-long temporal bins is shown not to cross-correlate with five separate measures of taxonomic turnover rate, one measure of change in relative taxonomic composition, and four measures of change in body mass distributions. The lack of correlation persists even after excluding the volatile Paleocene mammalian data, adding dummy data to represent intervals without known craters, or lagging the time series against each other for up to 5 million years. Furthermore, the data fail to support broad-brush correspondences between ages of major (>20 km in diameter) craters and the timing of five key, post-K/T biotic transitions, including medium-sized extinction episodes during the late Paleocene and latest Miocene. The results challenge the idea that extraterrestrial impacts drive all, most, or even many extinction and radiation episodes in terrestrial organisms, and add to other evidence that natural, long-term biotic changes are often independent of changes in the physical environment.

Mutation, specialization, and hypersensitivity in highly optimized tolerance

We introduce a model of evolution in which competing organisms are represented by percolation lattice models. Fitness is based on the number of occupied sites remaining after removing a cluster connected to a randomly selected site. High-fitness individuals arising through mutation and selection must trade off density versus robustness to loss, and are characterized by cellular barrier patterns that prevent large cascading losses to common disturbances. This model shows that Highly Optimized Tolerance (HOT), which links complexity to robustness in designed systems, arises naturally through Darwinian mechanisms. Although the model is a severe abstraction of biology, it produces a surprisingly wide variety of micro- and macroevolutionary features strikingly similar to real biological evolution.

Determination of alpha-dialkylamino acids and their enantiomers in geological samples by high-performance liquid chromatography after derivatization with a chiral adduct of o-phthaldialdehyde

Derivatization with o-phthaldialdehyde (OPA) and the chiral thiol N-acetyl-L-cysteine (NAC) is a convenient and sensitive technique for the HPLC detection and resolution of protein amino acid enantiomers. The kinetics of the reaction of OPA-NAC with alpha-dialkylamino acids was investigated. The fluorescence yield of alpha-dialkylamino acids was only about 10% of that of protein amino acids when the derivatization was carried out at room temperature for 1-2 min, which is the procedure generally used for protein amino acid analyses. The fluorescence yield of alpha-dialkylamino acids can be enhanced by up to ten-fold when the derivatization reaction time is increased to 15 min at room temperature. The OPA-NAC technique was optimized for the detection and enantiomeric resolution of alpha-dialkylamino acids in geological samples which contain a large excess of protein amino acids. The estimated detection limit for alpha-dialkylamino acids is 1-2 pmol, comparable to that for protein amino acids.

The biology of mass extinction: a palaeontological view

Extinctions are not biologically random: certain taxa or functional/ecological groups are more extinction-prone than others. Analysis of molluscan survivorship patterns for the end-Cretaceous mass extinctions suggests that some traits that tend to confer extinction resistance during times of normal ('background') levels of extinction are ineffectual during mass extinction. For genera, high species-richness and possession of widespread individual species imparted extinction-resistance during background times but not during the mass extinction, when overall distribution of the genus was an important factor. Reanalysis of Hoffman's (1986) data (Neues Jb. Geol. Palaont. Abh. 172, 219) on European bivalves, and preliminary analysis of a new northern European data set, reveals a similar change in survivorship rules, as do data scattered among other taxa and extinction events. Thus taxa and adaptations can be lost not because they were poorly adapted by the standards of the background processes that constitute the bulk of geological time, but because they lacked--or were not linked to--the organismic, species-level or clade-level traits favoured under mass-extinction conditions. Mass extinctions can break the hegemony of species-rich, well-adapted clades and thereby permit radiation of taxa that had previously been minor faunal elements; no net increase in the adaptation of the biota need ensue. Although some large-scale evolutionary trends transcend mass extinctions, post extinction evolutionary pathways are often channelled in directions not predictable from evolutionary patters during background times.

Scale invariance in biology: coincidence or footprint of a universal mechanism?

In this article, we present a self-contained review of recent work on complex biological systems which exhibit no characteristic scale. This property can manifest itself with fractals (spatial scale invariance), flicker noise or 1/f-noise where f denotes the frequency of a signal (temporal scale invariance) and power laws (scale invariance in the size and duration of events in the dynamics of the system). A hypothesis recently put forward to explain these scale-free phenomomena is criticality, a notion introduced by physicists while studying phase transitions in materials, where systems spontaneously arrange themselves in an unstable manner similar, for instance, to a row of dominoes. Here, we review in a critical manner work which investigates to what extent this idea can be generalized to biology. More precisely, we start with a brief introduction to the concepts of absence of characteristic scale (power-law distributions, fractals and 1/f-noise) and of critical phenomena. We then review typical mathematical models exhibiting such properties: edge of chaos, cellular automata and self-organized critical models. These notions are then brought together to see to what extent they can account for the scale invariance observed in ecology, evolution of species, type III epidemics and some aspects of the central nervous system. This article also discusses how the notion of scale invariance can give important insights into the workings of biological systems.

Competitive displacement among post-Paleozoic cyclostome and cheilostome bryozoans

Encrusting bryozoans provide one of the few systems in the fossil record in which ecological competition can be observed directly at local scales. The macroevolutionary history of diversity of cyclostome and cheilostome bryozoans is consistent with a coupled-logistic model of clade displacement predicated on species within clades interacting competitively. The model matches observed diversity history if the model is perturbed by a mass extinction with a position and magnitude analogous to the Cretaceous/Tertiary boundary event, Although it is difficult to measure all parameters in the model from fossil data, critical factors are intrinsic rates of extinction, which can be measured. Cyclostomes maintained a rather low rate of extinction, and the model solutions predict that they would lose diversity only slowly as competitively superior species of cheilostomes diversified into their environment. Thus, the microecological record of preserved competitive interactions between cyclostome and cheilostome bryozoans and the macroevolutionary record of global diversity are consistent in regard to competition as a significant influence on diversity histories of post-Paleozoic bryozoans.

Model of biological evolution with threshold dynamics and infinitely many absorbing states

We study a model of biological evolution where the survival of a given species depends on its interactions with neighboring species. In the steady state the model has an active phase and an absorbing phase, which are separated by the critical point of the directed percolation universality class. The absorbing phase is infinitely degenerate and the dynamical behavior of our model is found to be nonuniversal.

Highly optimized tolerance: a mechanism for power laws in designed systems

We introduce a mechanism for generating power law distributions, referred to as highly optimized tolerance (HOT), which is motivated by biological organisms and advanced engineering technologies. Our focus is on systems which are optimized, either through natural selection or engineering design, to provide robust performance despite uncertain environments. We suggest that power laws in these systems are due to tradeoffs between yield, cost of resources, and tolerance to risks. These tradeoffs lead to highly optimized designs that allow for occasional large events. We investigate the mechanism in the context of percolation and sand pile models in order to emphasize the sharp contrasts between HOT and self-organized criticality (SOC), which has been widely suggested as the origin for power laws in complex systems. Like SOC, HOT produces power laws. However, compared to SOC, HOT states exist for densities which are higher than the critical density, and the power laws are not restricted to special values of the density. The characteristic features of HOT systems include: (1) high efficiency, performance, and robustness to designed-for uncertainties; (2) hypersensitivity to design flaws and unanticipated perturbations; (3) nongeneric, specialized, structured configurations; and (4) power laws. The first three of these are in contrast to the traditional hallmarks of criticality, and are obtained by simply adding the element of design to percolation and sand pile models, which completely changes their characteristics.

The ecology of echo

Echo is a generic ecosystem model in which evolving agents are situated in a resource-limited environment. The Echo model is described, and the behavior of Echo is evaluated on two well-studied measures of ecological diversity: relative species abundance and the species-area scaling relation. In simulation experiments, these measures are used to compare the behavior of Echo with that of a neutral model, in which selection on agent genotypes is random. These simulations show that the evolutionary component of Echo makes a significant contribution to its behavior and that Echo shows good qualitative agreement with naturally occurring species abundance distributions and species-area scaling relations.

The case for extraterrestrial causes of extinction

The dramatic increase in our knowledge of large-body impacts that have occurred in Earth’s history has led to strong arguments for the plausibility of meteorite impact as a cause of extinction. Proof of causation is often hampered, however, by our inability to demonstrate the synchronism of specific impacts and extinctions. A central problem is range truncation: the last reported occurrences of fossil taxa generally underestimate the true times of extinction. Range truncation, because of gaps in sedimentation, lack of preservation, or lack of discovery, can make sudden extinctions appear gradual and gradual extinctions appear sudden. Also, stepwise extinction may appear as an artefact of range truncation. These effects are demonstrated by experiments performed on data from field collections of Cretaceous ammonifies from Zumaya (Spain). The challenge for future research is to develop a new calculus for treating biostratigraphic data so that fossils can provide more accurate assessments of the timing of extinctions.

Multiple factors in the origin of the Cretaceous/Tertiary boundary: the role of environmental stress and Deccan Trap volcanism

A review of the scenarios for the Cretaceous/ Tertiary (K/T) boundary event is presented and a coherent hypothesis for the origin of the event is formulated. Many scientists now accept that the event was caused by a meteorite impact at Chicxulub in the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico. Our investigations show that the oceans were already stressed by the end of the Late Cretaceous as a result of the long-term drop in atmospheric CO2, the long-term drop in sea level and the frequent development of oceanic anoxia. Extinction of some marine species was already occurring several million years prior to the K/T boundary. The biota were therefore susceptible to change. The eruption of the Deccan Traps, which began at 66.2 Ma, coincides with the K/T boundary events. It erupted huge quantities of H2SO4, HCl, CO2, dust and soot into the atmosphere and led to a significant drop in sea level and marked changes in ocean temperature. The result was a major reduction in oceanic productivity and the creation of an almost dead ocean. The volcanism lasted almost 0.7 m.y. Extinction of biological species was graded and appeared to correlate with the main eruptive events. Elements such as Ir were incorporated into the volcanic ash, possibly on soot particles. This horizon accumulated under anoxic conditions in local depressions and became the marker horizon for the K/T boundary. An oxidation front penetrated this horizon leading to the redistribution of elements. The eruption of the Deccan Traps is the largest volcanic event since the Permian-Triassic event at 245 Ma. It followed a period of 36 m.y. in which the earth's magnetic field failed to reverse. Instabilities in the mantle are thought to be responsible for this eruption and therefore for the K/T event. We therefore believe that the K/T event can be explained in terms of the effects of the Deccan volcanism on an already stressed biosphere. The meteorite impact at Chicxulub took place after the onset of Deccan volcanism. It probably played a regional, rather than global, role in the K/T extinction.

Are critical phenomena relevant to large-scale evolution?

Recent theoretical studies, based on the theory of self-organized critical systems, seem to suggest that the dynamical patterns of macroevolution could belong to such class of critical phenomena. Two basic approaches have been proposed: the Kauffman-Johnsen model (based on the use of coupled fitness landscapes) and the Bak-Sneppen model. Both are reviewed here. These models are oversimplified pictures of biological evolution, but the (possible) validity of them is based on the concept of universality, i.e. that apparently very different systems sharing some few common properties should also behave in a very similar way. In this paper we explore the current evidence from the fossil record, showing that some properties that are suggestive of critical dynamics would also be the result of random phenomema. Some general properties of the large-scale pattern of evolution, which should be reproduced by these models, are discussed.