Child-Pugh versus MELD score in predicting survival in patients undergoing transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt

Evaluation of model performance to predict survival after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt placement

Background/Aims

The MELD score was developed to predict survival after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) placement. Given changes in practice patterns and development of new prognostic tools in cirrhosis, we aimed to evaluate common models to predict mortality after TIPS placement.

Methods

Analysis of consecutive patients who underwent TIPS placement for ascites or bleeding. Performance to predict 90-day mortality was assessed by C statistic for six models (MELD, MELD-Na, CLIF-C ACLF, Child-Pugh, Platelet-Albumin-Bilirubin, and Emory score). Added predictive value to MELD score was assessed for univariate predictors of 90-day mortality. Stratified analysis by TIPS indication, emergent placement status, and TIPS stent type was performed.

Results

413 patients were analyzed (248 with variceal bleeding, 165 with refractory ascites). 90-day mortality was 27% (113/413). Mean MELD score was 15 ± 7.9. MELD score best predicted mortality for all patients (c = 0.779), for variceal bleeding (c = 0.844), and for emergent TIPS (c = 0.817). CLIF-C ACLF score best predicted mortality for refractory ascites (c = 0.707). Addition of sodium to the MELD score did not improve predictive value across multiple strata. Addition of hemoglobin improved MELD score’s predictive value in variceal bleeding. Addition of age improved MELD score’s predictive value in refractory ascites.

Conclusions

MELD score best predicted 90-day mortality. Addition of sodium to the MELD score did not improve its performance, though mortality prediction was improved using Age-MELD for ascites and Hemoglobin-MELD for bleeding. An individualized risk stratification approach may be best when considering candidates for TIPS placement.

Prognostic Significance of The New Criteria for Acute Kidney Injury in Cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

New criteria for acute kidney injury (AKI) in cirrhosis have been proposed, but its prognostic significance is unclear. This study aims to evaluate the prognostic significance of the AKI criteria in cirrhotic patients hospitalized for acute decompensation.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

This is a prospective cohort study. AKI was defined as an increase in creatinine (Cr) levels ≥ 0.3 mg/dL in 48 h or ≥ 50% of the basal value in the last 7d. AKI was divided into stages 1 (elevation: < 2x basal), 2 (2 or 3x), and 3 (> 3x).

RESULTS

In this study, 227 patients aged 53.9 ± 11.5 years were included, of whom 37% had AKI (28% AKI1, 5% AKI2, and 4% AKI3). Thirty percent of the patients died or were transplanted within 90 days from causes related to the presence of ascites at hospital admission and higher values of Chronic Liver Failure-Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (CLIF-SOFA) scores, but not to the presence of AKI. In a regression analysis conducted to assess the effect of the final Cr level in patients with AKI, 90-day mortality was associated with ascites, higher CLIF-SOFA score, and AKI with final Cr level ≥ 1.5 mg/dL. The patients with AKI with Cr levels ≥ 1.5 mg/dL showed lower transplant-free survival rates than those without AKI, and those with AKI1 with final Cr level < 1.5 mg/dL.

CONCLUSIONS

Early AKI was frequent and associated with 90-day mortality or transplantation only when the final Cr level was ≥ 1.5 mg/dL. Distinct approaches are needed for patients with AKI1 according to final Cr.

Detection of Minimal Hepatic Encephalopathy in Iranian Patients with Cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Minimal hepatic encephalopathy (MHE) is the mildest type of hepatic encephalopathy in patients with cirrhosis. Patients with MHE have normal clinical and physical examination but they show some neurocognitive dysfunctions that affect their quality of life negatively. The aim of the current study is to diagnose MHE in patients with cirrhosis and its associated factors.

METHODS

This is a cross-sectional study on 120 known cases of cirrhosis referred to hospitals affiliated to Isfahan University of Medical Sciences during 2014-17. The patients’ cirrhosis severity was evaluated using laboratory tests and physical examinations based on MELD (Model for End-stage Liver Disease) and Child-Pugh criteria. The patients’ demographics were filled in a checklist. All included patients with cirrhosis were asked to respond to the questions of Psychometric Hepatic Encephalopathy Score (PHES) test.

RESULTS

Mean age of the patients was 51.2 ± 9.7 years. 62 (51.7%) patients were men and 58 (48.3%) patients were women. The mean score of the patients based on MELD criteria was 14.03 ± 6.09. 26.7% of the patients presented MHE. Mean age of the patients with MHE was statistically less than the patients without MHE (p value < 0.001). Mean score of MELD criteria among the patients with diagnosis of MHE was significantly higher than the other group (p value < 0.001). The patients’ Child class was statistically associated with MHE (p value < 0.001). Men were significantly more affected than women (p value = 0.03).

CONCLUSION

MHE was associated with MELD score and Child class of the patients with cirrhosis. The noticeable point was reversible association of age with MHE. Further studies are recommended.

Applicability of Sepsis-3 criteria and quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment in patients with cirrhosis hospitalised for bacterial infections

BACKGROUND & AIMS

An algorithm including Sepsis-3 criteria and quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) was recently proposed to predict severity of infection in cirrhosis. However, its applicability among patients without a baseline SOFA available for Sepsis-3 definition is unknown. We sought to investigate the applicability and prognostic value of qSOFA and Sepsis-3 criteria in patients with cirrhosis hospitalised for bacterial infections, without pre-hospitalisation SOFA.

METHODS

In this cohort study, 164 patients were followed up to 30 days. Data collection, including the prognostic models, was performed at admission and at day-3.

RESULTS

All patients fulfilled Sepsis-3 criteria (admission SOFA ≥ 2) and, therefore, admission Sepsis-3 was not included in further analysis. Admission qSOFA was an independent predictor of survival (HR = 2.271, P = 0.015). For patients initially classified as high risk by qSOFA, Chronic Liver Failure - Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (CLIF-SOFA) was the only prognostic predictor. Among patients initially classified as low risk by qSOFA, the following parameters evaluated at day-3 were independent predictors of survival: qSOFA, acute-on-chronic liver failure, and Child-Pugh classification. Although not independently related to survival, Sepsis-3 criteria at day-3 was associated with lower 30-day survival in Kaplan-Meier analysis (66% vs 85%, P = 0.008). However, prognosis was better predicted by day-3 qSOFA, with 30-day Kaplan-Meier survival probability of 88% when qSOFA < 2 and 24% among those with qSOFA ≥ 2.

CONCLUSION

Sepsis-3 criteria evaluated at admission are very limited in infected patients with cirrhosis without baseline SOFA. qSOFA was independently related to survival and appears to be a valuable tool for determining severity of infection and to follow patients initially classified as low risk.

Albi Score as a Predictor of Survival in Patients with Compensated Cirrhosis Resected for Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Exploratory Evaluation in Relationship to Palbi and Meld Liver Function Scores

The aim of the study was to explore predictive value of the ALBI, PALBI and MELD scores on survival in patients resected for hepatocellular carcinoma with compensated liver cirrhosis and no macrovascular infiltration. In this retrospective study, longitudinal survival analysis was performed. We analyzed patient/tumor characteristics and MELD, ALBI and PALBI scores as liver function tests for predicting survival outcome. Survival was analyzed from the date of liver resection until death, liver transplantation, or end of follow-up. Patients were stratified for age, cirrhosis etiology, presence of esophageal varices, hepatocellular carcinoma stage, microvascular invasion, histologic differentiation, and resection margins. We identified 38 patients (alcoholic cirrhosis in 84.2% of patients) resected over an 8-year period. Median preoperative MELD score was 8, ALBI score -2.63, and PALBI score -2.38. During the follow-up period, 24 patients died. Estimated median survival time was 36 months. Microvascular invasion was observed in 33 patients. Higher ALBI score was associated with 23.1% higher relative risk of death. PALBI score was associated with 12.1% higher relative risk of death, whereas MELD score was not associated with the risk of death. In conclusion, ALBI score demonstrated significant predictive capabilities for survival in patients with compensated cirrhosis resected for hepatocellular carcinoma.

Model for end-stage liver disease score and hemodynamic instability as a predictor of poor outcome in early transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt treatment for acute variceal hemorrhage

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the outcome of early transjugular portosystemic shunt (TIPS) treatment in patients with a trial-compatible high-risk variceal bleeding and secondly to disclose other predictors of early mortality.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A cohort study was conducted on patients referred for a TIPS procedure with or without combined variceal embolization to control acute esophageal variceal bleeding. A total of 32 patients with Child-Pugh C score less than 14 or Child-Pugh B plus active bleeding at endoscopy, admitted for early-TIPS treatment (<72 h), were included.

RESULTS

We noted one (3.7%) failure to control bleeding and no rebleeding during 1-year follow-up. Ten (31.3%) patients died within 6 weeks after TIPS placement. Early mortality was associated with model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score (P=0.025), MELD score of at least 19 (P=0.008) and hemodynamic instability at time of admission (P=0.001). If hemodynamic instability is associated with a high MELD score, the 6-week mortality peaks at 77.8% (P=0.000).

CONCLUSION

This study confirms the excellent survival results of early-TIPS treatment for acute variceal bleeding in a selected patient group with a low MELD score. Poor survival in hemodynamically unstable patients with high MELD scores (≥19) contests the guidelines that patients with Child-Pugh class C cirrhosis or Child-Pugh class B with active bleeding on endoscopy should deliberately receive preemptive TIPS treatment after endoscopic haemostasis.

Survival prediction among patients with non-cancer-related end-stage liver disease

Background

Predicting the survival of non-cancer related end-stage-liver-disease patients in general practice has been difficult for physicians because of the extremely variable trajectories due to multiple complex clinical factors, hence it remains a challenging issue to date. This study aimed to develop and validate a specific prognostic scoring system to early recognize the prognosis and improve the quality of end-of life care for non-cancer end-stage-liver-disease population.

Materials and methods

A multicentre, retrospective cohort study was conducted during January 2010 ~ December 2012 and continued follow-up until December 2014. A cox proportional hazard regression analysis was used to derive and validate an optimized model. The main outcome measures were the 28-day, 3-month, 6-month, and 12-month mortality prediction. The performance of the novel model was evaluated, including discrimination and calibration.

Results

A total of 4,080 consecutive subjects were enrolled. The AUROCs for the 3-month survival discrimination in the MELD, MELD-Na and novel model were 0.787, 0.705 and 0.804 (P<0.001); the 6-month survival discrimination were 0.781, 0.702 and 0.797 (P<0.001); the overall survival discrimination were 0.771, 0.694 and 0.785 (P = 0.002) respectively, whereas the novel model showed a significantly higher discrimination power than did the MELD and MELD-Na for the 3-month, 6-month and overall survival prediction. In addition, calibration of external validation cohort showed no statistical difference in all 5 groups compared with the observed groups.

Conclusion

This is a clinically relevant, validated scoring system that can be used sequentially to stratify the prognosis in non-cancer cirrhotic populations, which may help the patients along with medical team in decision making to improve the quality of end-of-life care.

Circulating levels of pentraxin-3 (PTX3) in patients with liver cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Despite the circulating levels of PTX3 were related to the severity of various diseases, there are no studies investigating its role in patients with liver cirrhosis. We aimed to study PTX3 levels in patients with liver cirrhosis.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

A prospective cohort study included 130 patients hospitalized for acute decompensation of liver cirrhosis, 29 stable cirrhotic outpatients and 32 healthy controls evaluated in a tertiary hospital in Southern Brasil.

RESULTS

The median PTX3 level was significantly higher in stable cirrhotic patients compared to controls (2.6 vs. 1.1 ng/mL; p < 0.001), hospitalized cirrhotic patients compared to controls (3.8 vs. 1.1 ng/mL; p < 0.001), and hospitalized cirrhotic patients compared to stable cirrhotic patients (3.8 vs. 2.6 ng/mL; p = 0.001). A positive correlation was found between PTX3 and serum creatinine (r = 0.220; p = 0.012), Chronic Liver Failure - Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score (CLIF-SOFA) (r = 0.220; p = 0.010), MELD (r = 0.279; p = 0.001) and Child-Pugh score (r = 0.224; p = 0.010). Significantly higher levels of PTX3 were observed in patients on admission with ACLF (8.9 vs. 3.1 ng/mL; p < 0.001) and MELD score ≥ 20 (6.6 vs. 3.4 ng/mL; p = 0.002). Death within 90 days occurred in 30.8% of patients and was associated with higher levels of PTX3 (5.3 vs. 3.4 ng/mL; p = 0.009). The probability of Kaplan-Meier survival was 77.0% in patients with PTX-3 < 5.3 ng mL (upper tercile) and 53.5% in those with PTX3 ≥ 5.3 ng/mL (p = 0.002).

CONCLUSION

These results indicate the potential for use of PTX3 as an inflammatory biomarker for the prognosis of patients with hepatic cirrhosis.

Circulating CXCL10 in cirrhotic portal hypertension might reflect systemic inflammation and predict ACLF and mortality

BACKGROUND & AIMS

CXCR% ligands play an important role in hepatic injury, inflammation and fibrosis. While CXCL9 and CXCL11 are associated with survival in patients receiving transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS), the role of CXCL10 in severe portal hypertension remains unknown.

METHODS

A total of 89 cirrhotic patients were analysed. CXCL10 protein levels were measured in portal and hepatic blood at TIPS insertion and 2 weeks later in 24 patients. CXCL10 and IL8 levels were assessed in portal, hepatic, cubital vein and right atrium blood in a further 25 patients at TIPS insertion. Furthermore, real-time PCR determined hepatic CXCL10-mRNA in 40 cirrhotic patients.

RESULTS

Hepatic CXCL10 showed no association with decompensation. By contrast, circulating CXCL10-levels were higher in portal than in hepatic vein blood, suggesting an extrahepatic source of CXCL10 in cirrhosis. However, CXCL10 protein in blood samples from portal, hepatic, cubital veins and right atrium correlated excellently with each other and with IL-8 levels. Higher CXCL10 circulating levels were associated with presence of ascites and higher Child scores. Higher CXCL10 circulating protein levels were associated with acute decompensation, acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) and independently with mortality. Moreover, a decrease in CXCL10 protein levels after TIPS insertion was associated with better survival in each cohort and analysed together.

DISCUSSION

Circulating CXCL10 possibly reflects systemic inflammation and it is correlated with acute decompensation, ACLF and complications in patients with severe portal hypertension receiving TIPS. CXCL10 predicts survival in these patients and a decrease in CXCL10 after TIPS may be considered a good prognostic factor.

Prognostic Models in Acute Liver Failure

There is a strong imperative to develop valid and accurate prognostic modeling for acute liver failure (ALF). Despite the numerous clinical models that have been proposed thus far and the use of some such models, that is, King's College Criteria and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease, in clinical practice to aid decision-making, there is a significant need for improvement for determining patients' clinical course, survival, and requirement for liver transplantation. Future prognostic models shall need a stronger statistical foundation and accountability for time and variability in the clinical course of ALF and be applied for pretransplant and posttransplant outcomes.

Mesenchymal Stem Cell Transplantation for Liver Cell Failure: A New Direction and Option

Background and Aims

Mesenchymal stem cell transplantation (MSCT) became available with liver failure (LF), while the advantages of MSCs remain controversial. We aimed to assess clinical advantages of MSCT in patients with LF.

Methods

Clinical researches reporting MSCT in LF patients were searched and included.

Results

Nine articles (n = 476) related with LF patients were enrolled. After MSCT, alanine aminotransferase (ALT) baseline decreased largely at half a month (P < 0.05); total bilirubin (TBIL) baseline declined to a certain stable level of 78.57 μmol/L at 2 and 3 months (P < 0.05). Notably, the decreased value (D value) of Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score (MELD) of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) group was higher than that of chronic liver failure (CLF) group (14.93 ± 1.24 versus 4.6 ± 5.66, P < 0.05). Moreover, MELD baseline of ≥20 group was a higher D value of MELD than MELD baseline of <20 group with a significant statistical difference after MSCT (P = 0.003).

Conclusion

The early assessment of the efficacy of MSCT could be based on variations of ALT at half a month and TBIL at 2 and 3 months. And it had beneficial effects for patients with LF, especially in ACLF based on the D value of MELD.

Systemic inflammatory response syndrome and model for end-stage liver disease score accurately predict the in-hospital mortality of black African patients with decompensated cirrhosis at initial hospitalization: a retrospective cohort study

Background

Systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) predict short-term mortality in patients with cirrhosis. Prediction of mortality at initial hospitalization is unknown in black African patients with decompensated cirrhosis.

Aim

This study aimed to look at the role of MELD score and SIRS as the predictors of morbidity and mortality at initial hospitalization.

Patients and methods

In this retrospective cohort study, we enrolled 159 patients with cirrhosis (median age: 49 years, 70.4% males). The role of Child–Pugh–Turcotte (CPT) score, MELD score, and SIRS on mortality was determined by the Kaplan–Meier method, and the prognosis factors were assessed with Cox regression model.

Results

At initial hospitalization, 74.2%, 20.1%, and 37.7% of the patients with cirrhosis showed the presence of ascites, hepatorenal syndrome, and esophageal varices, respectively. During the in-hospital follow-up, 40 (25.2%) patients died. The overall incidence of mortality was found to be 3.1 [95% confidence interval (CI): 2.2–4.1] per 100 person-days. Survival probabilities were found to be high in case of patients who were SIRS negative (log-rank test= 4.51, p=0.03) and in case of patients with MELD score ≤16 (log-rank test=7.26, p=0.01) compared to the patients who were SIRS positive and those with MELD score >16. Only SIRS (hazard ratio (HR)=3.02, [95% CI: 1.4–7.4], p=0.01) and MELD score >16 (HR=2.2, [95% CI: 1.1–4.3], p=0.02) were independent predictors of mortality in multivariate analysis except CPT, which was not relevant in our study. Patients with MELD score >16 experienced hepatorenal syndrome (p=0.002) and encephalopathy (p=0.001) more frequently than that of patients with MELD score ≤16. SIRS was not useful in predicting complications.

Conclusion

MELD score and SIRS can be used as tools for the prediction of mortality in black African patients with decompensated cirrhosis.

Serum cystatin C level: An excellent predictor of mortality in patients with cirrhotic ascites

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Although serum cystatin C level is considered a more accurate marker of renal function in patients with liver cirrhosis, its prognostic efficacy remains uncertain. This study aimed to evaluate the prognostic efficacy of serum cystatin C level in patients with cirrhotic ascites.

METHODS

Patients with cirrhotic ascites from 15 hospitals were prospectively enrolled between September 2009 and March 2013. Cox regression analyses were performed to identify independent predictive factors of mortality and development of type 1 hepatorenal syndrome (HRS-1).

RESULTS

In total, 350 patients were enrolled in this study. The mean age was 55.4 ± 10.8 years, and 267 patients (76.3%) were men. The leading cause of liver cirrhosis was alcoholic liver disease (64.3%), followed by chronic viral hepatitis (29.7%). Serum creatinine and cystatin C levels were 0.9 ± 0.4 mg/dL and 1.1 ± 0.5 mg/L, respectively. Multivariate analyses revealed that international normalized ratio and serum bilirubin, sodium, and cystatin C levels were independent predictors of mortality and international normalized ratio and serum sodium and cystatin C levels were independent predictors of the development of HRS-1. Serum creatinine level was not significantly associated with mortality and development of HRS-1 on multivariate analysis.

CONCLUSION

Serum cystatin C level was an independent predictor of mortality and development of HRS-1 in patients with cirrhotic ascites, while serum creatinine level was not. Predictive models based on serum cystatin C level instead of serum creatinine level would be more helpful in the assessment of the condition and prognosis of patients with cirrhotic ascites.

Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt does not independently increase risk of death in high model for end stage liver disease patients

Physicians often exclude patients with a model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score ≥ 18 from a transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) procedure due to the concern for higher risk of death. We aimed to determine if TIPS increased the risk of death in these patients. We analyzed the interaction between TIPS and MELD in 106 patients with TIPS and 79 with intractable ascites without TIPS. We performed Cox proportional hazard regression, including both TIPS and MELD as time-dependent covariates together with their interaction, to calculate the impact of TIPS on the risk of death associated with a high MELD score. We found a negative interaction between a high MELD score and a history of TIPS, with potentially important effect sizes. Patients with MELD scores ≥18 had a 51% lower incremental risk of death (lower risk than would be expected from the combined independent risks of MELD and needing/receiving TIPS) associated with TIPS than patients with MELD scores <18 (hazard ratio for TIPS, 0.49; 95% confidence interval, 0.10-2.45) in the first 6 months following TIPS. There was an 80% lower incremental risk of death among patients with a MELD score ≥18 (hazard ratio for TIPS, 0.20; 95% confidence interval, 0.03-1.23) 6 months after the TIPS procedure. Conclusion: Risk of death is associated with underlying disease severity as shown by the MELD score and the need for TIPS, and both history of TIPS and high MELD score independently increased the risk of mortality. However, the risk of death after TIPS was progressively lower than expected as the MELD score increased. (Hepatology Communications 2017;1:460-468).

Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-Sodium Score: The Evolution in the Prioritization of Liver Transplantation

The adoption of the model of end-stage liver disease (MELD) score as surrogate marker of liver disease severity has been the greatest change in liver allocation. Since its implementation, waiting time has lost significance. The MELD score calculation was later modified to reflect the contribution of hyponatremia in the estimation of mortality risk. However, the MELD score does not capture accurately the risk of mortality of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Therefore the arbitrary assignment of MELD points has been used for HCC patients. The current allocation system still prioritizes transplantation in HCC patients.

QT prolongation is associated with increased mortality in end stage liver disease

AIM

To determine the prevalence of QT prolongation in a large series of end stage liver disease (ESLD) patients and its association to clinical variables and mortality.

METHODS

The QT interval was measured and corrected for heart rate for each patient, with a prolonged QT cutoff defined as QT > 450 ms for males and QT > 470 ms for females. Multiple clinical variables were evaluated including sex, age, serum sodium, international normalized ratio, creatinine, total bilirubin, beta-blocker use, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), MELD-Na, and etiology of liver disease.

RESULTS

Among 406 ESLD patients analyzed, 207 (51.0%) had QT prolongation. The only clinical variable associated with QT prolongation was male gender (OR = 3.04, 95%CI: 2.01-4.60, P < 0.001). During the study period, 187 patients (46.1%) died. QT prolongation was a significant independent predictor of mortality (OR = 1.69, 95%CI: 1.03-2.77, P = 0.039). In addition, mortality was also associated with viral etiology of ESLD, elevated MELD score and its components (P < 0.05 for all). No significant reversibility in the QT interval was seen after liver transplantation.

CONCLUSION

QT prolongation was commonly encountered in an ESLD population, especially in males, and served as a strong independent marker for increased mortality in ESLD patients.

Breath-print analysis by e-nose may refine risk stratification for adverse outcomes in cirrhotic patients

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The spectrum of volatile organic compounds in the exhaled breath (breath-print, BP) has been shown to characterize patients with cirrhosis and with worse hepatic function. However, the association of different BPs with clinically relevant outcomes has not been described yet. Hence, we aimed to evaluate the association between BPs, mortality and hospitalization in cirrhotic patients and to compare it with that of the "classical" prognostic indices (Child-Pugh Classification [CPC] and MELD).

METHODS

Eighty-nine cirrhotic patients (M/F 59/30, mean age 64.8 ± 11.3, CPC A/B/C 37/33/19) were recruited and followed up for a median time of 23 months. Clinical and biochemical data were collected. Breath collection and analysis were obtained through Pneumopipe^® and BIONOTE e-nose respectively.

RESULTS

Four different BP clusters (A, B, C, D) were identified. BP clusters A and D were associated with a significantly increased risk of mortality (HR 2.9, 95% confidence intervals [CI] 1.5-5.6) and hospitalization (HR 2.6, 95% CI 1.4-4.6), even in multiple adjusted models including CPC and MELD score (adjusted [a]HR 2.8, 95% CI 1.1-7.0 for mortality and aHR 2.2, 95% CI 1.1-4.2 for hospitalization). CPC C maintained the strongest association with both mortality (aHR 17.6, 95% CI 1.8-174.0) and hospitalization (aHR 12.4, 95% CI 2.0-75.8).

CONCLUSIONS

This pilot study demonstrates that BP clusters are associated with significant clinical endpoints (mortality and hospitalization) even independently from "classical" prognostic indices. Even though further studies are warranted on this topic, our findings suggest that the e-nose may become an adjunctive aid to stratify the risk of adverse outcomes in cirrhotic patients.

Classification and regression tree analysis of acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure: Seeing the forest for the trees

At present, there is no ideal model for predicting the short-term outcome of patients with acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure (ACHBLF). This study aimed to establish and validate a prognostic model by using the classification and regression tree (CART) analysis. A total of 1047 patients from two separate medical centres with suspected ACHBLF were screened in the study, which were recognized as derivation cohort and validation cohort, respectively. CART analysis was applied to predict the 3-month mortality of patients with ACHBLF. The accuracy of the CART model was tested using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, which was compared with the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score and a new logistic regression model. CART analysis identified four variables as prognostic factors of ACHBLF: total bilirubin, age, serum sodium and INR, and three distinct risk groups: low risk (4.2%), intermediate risk (30.2%-53.2%) and high risk (81.4%-96.9%). The new logistic regression model was constructed with four independent factors, including age, total bilirubin, serum sodium and prothrombin activity by multivariate logistic regression analysis. The performances of the CART model (0.896), similar to the logistic regression model (0.914, P=.382), exceeded that of MELD score (0.667, P<.001). The results were confirmed in the validation cohort. We have developed and validated a novel CART model superior to MELD for predicting three-month mortality of patients with ACHBLF. Thus, the CART model could facilitate medical decision-making and provide clinicians with a validated practical bedside tool for ACHBLF risk stratification.

Transjugular Intrahepatic Porto-Systemic Shunt in Patients with Liver Cirrhosis and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease ≥15

BACKGROUND

It is not known whether transjugular intrahepatic porto-systemic shunt (TIPS) is safe in patients with advanced liver cirrhosis. The aim of our study was to evaluate the impact of TIPS on transplant-free survival in patients with liver cirrhosis and MELD score ≥15.

METHODS

All adult patients who underwent TIPS at our institution between 2004 and 2011 were identified (N = 470). A total of 144 patients had MELD ≥15 at the time of TIPS. These patients were matched 1:1 to patients with liver cirrhosis who did not undergo TIPS based on age and MELD score using the greedy algorithm. Patients were followed up until time of death or liver transplantation. Kaplan-Meier curves and log-rank tests were used to test for differences in survival outcome between the two groups.

RESULTS

A total of 288 patients with liver cirrhosis were included, of whom 144 underwent TIPS and 144 did not. The two groups were matched based on age and MELD score and were comparable with regard to gender and ethnicity. Mean MELD and Child-Pugh scores in the study population were 20.9 ± 6.5 and 10.5 ± 1.8, respectively. The most common indication for TIPS was varices (49 %), followed by refractory ascites (42 %). In the first 2 months post-TIPS, there was increased mortality or liver transplantation in patients who had TIPS compared to those who did not, but this did not reach statistical significance (p = 0.07). However, after 2 months, TIPS is associated with 56 % lower risk of dying or needing liver transplantation (p < 0.01) than cirrhotic patients who did not undergo TIPS.

CONCLUSION

In patients with liver cirrhosis and MELD ≥15, TIPS might improve transplant-free survival for patients who live for at least 2 months after the procedure.

Emergency TIPS in a Child-Pugh B patient: When does the window of opportunity open and close?

Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) is used to treat complications of cirrhosis such as variceal bleeding and refractory ascites, but it also bears the risk of liver failure, overt hepatic encephalopathy (HE) and cardiac decompensation. Variceal bleeding may be controlled using endoscopic and medical treatment in patients with compensated cirrhosis; in decompensated patients, however, TIPS improves survival. Therefore, an early TIPS (within 72h or if later, still early after bleeding) might improve the survival of patients by preventing an inflammatory response and bacterial translocation. Both these processes mediate an impaired immunological and hemodynamic response, thereby facilitating the development of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) and/or death. Similarly, in patients with refractory ascites, TIPS should be used early in treatment to prevent acute kidney injury (AKI) and hepatorenal syndrome (HRS) after precipitating events induced by complications of portal hypertension. Whether TIPS and/or embolization should be used to treat portal vein thrombosis and spontaneous shunts is still a matter of debate and should be further investigated. In summary, the careful selection of patients for TIPS is crucial. New biomarkers, especially those evaluating systemic inflammation and bacterial translocation, might improve the predictive value of established clinical parameters such as bilirubin and overt HE. However, a significant amount of further research must be carried out.

HbA1c-Based Score Model for Predicting Death Risk in Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma and Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus

Aim. To establish a new score model to predict risk of death in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma and type 2 diabetes mellitus. Methods. This was a retrospective study of 147 patients with hepatocellular carcinoma and type 2 diabetes mellitus who came to Beijing Ditan Hospital between October 2008 and June 2013. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to obtain the independent factors associated with death risk. A new score model was devised according to these factors. Results. A prediction score model composed of HbA1c, NLR, age, and CTP class was devised, which ranged from 0 to 7. AUROC of the score was 0.853 (P < 0.001, 95% CI: 0.791-0.915). Scores 0-2, 3-4, and 5-7 identified patients as low-, medium-, and high-risk categories. The cumulative survival rate was 93.6%, 83.0%, and 74.5% in the low-risk group in 1, 2, and 3 years, while it was 64.0%, 46.0%, and 26.0% in the medium-risk group, whereas it was 24.0%, 12.0%, and 6.0% in the high-risk group, respectively. The cumulative survival rate was significantly higher in the low-risk group than that in the medium-risk group and high-risk group (P < 0.001). Conclusion. The HbA1c-based score model can be used to predict death risk in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma and type 2 diabetes mellitus.

Predictors of Mortality in Long-Term Follow-Up of Patients with Terminal Alcoholic Cirrhosis: Is It Time to Accept Remodeled Scores?

OBJECTIVE

To identify the prognostic score that is the best predictor of outcome in patients hospitalized with decompensated liver cirrhosis.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

In this prospective study, 126 patients were enrolled and followed up for 29 months. For each patient, prognostic scores were calculated; these included the Child-Turcotte-Pugh score (CTP score), CTP creatinine-modified I score, CTP creatinine-modified II score, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD score), MELD model for end-stage liver disease sodium-modified score, Integrated MELD score, updated MELD score, United Kingdom MELD, and the MELD score remodeled by serum sodium index (MESO index). Cox regression analysis was used to assess the ability of each of the scores for predicting mortality in patients with alcoholic cirrhosis. Their discriminatory ability was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis.

RESULTS

The updated MELD score had the highest predictive value (3.29) among the tested scores (95% CI: 2.26-4.78). ROC curve analysis demonstrated that the MELD score of 22.50 (AUC = 0.914, 95% CI: 0.849-0.978; p < 0.001) had the best discriminative ability for identifying patients with a high risk of mortality; the next best was the MESO index of 16.00 (AUC = 0.912, 95% CI: 0.847-0.978; p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

The risk of mortality was highest in patients with the highest updated MELD score, and those with MELD scores >22.50 and a MESO index >16.00.

"Neo-PIRO": Introducing a Novel Grading System for Surgical Infections of Neonates

Introduction:

Quantification of surgical sepsis was never done beyond superficial, subfascial, and deep surgical site infection (SSI). Invasive surgical sepsis with systemic manifestation has not been tried to be quantified in general and pediatric surgery in particular. Hence, this attempts to develop a novel grading system to quantify neonatal surgical infections.

Materials and Methods:

Predisposing factors, infection, response, and organ failure (PIRO) is being used in critical care institutions for medical sepsis; it was modified with neonate-specific surgical parameters. Authors have developed a grading of these parameters into Grade I, II, and III.

Results:

A blinded statistical test was performed and results were put to test. Extended Mantel–Haenszel Chi-square test validated linear relationship with grade and outcome, hospital stay, deep SSI, and organ dysfunction. Analysis of variance also showed the significant relationship of changing trends in grade and outcome. (1) Higher the grade indicated the probability of death. (2) Grade I patients had less duration of hospital stay compared to Grade II and III (P = 0.04). (3) The requirement of organ support and SSI were also more in Grade III. (4) Grade I patients had less increase in trends compared to Grade II and III (F = 4.86). Authors therefore feel Neo-PIRO seems to be the first scoring system that shows a linear relationship between scores and grade.

Conclusion:

Neo-PIRO is a novel grading system with surgical neonate-specific parameters. Future versions to include molecular parameters, as well as parameters selected by regression analysis.

Behavior of Oxidative Stress Markers in Alcoholic Liver Cirrhosis Patients

Alcohol is the most socially accepted addictive substance worldwide, and its metabolism is related with oxidative stress generation. The aim of this work was to evaluate the role of oxidative stress in alcoholic liver cirrhosis (ALC). This study included 187 patients divided into two groups: ALC, classified according to Child-Pugh score, and a control group. We determined the levels of reduced and oxidized glutathione (GSH and GSSG) and the GSH/GSSG ratio by an enzymatic method in blood. Also, protein carbonyl and malondialdehyde (MDA) content were estimated in serum. MDA levels increased in proportion to the severity of damage, whereas the GSH and GSSG levels decreased and increased, respectively, at different stages of cirrhosis. There were no differences in the GSH/GSSG ratio and carbonylated protein content between groups. We also evaluated whether the active consumption of or abstinence from alcoholic beverages affected the behavior of these oxidative markers and only found differences in the MDA, GSH, and GSSG determination and the GSH/GSSG ratio. Our results suggest that alcoholic cirrhotic subjects have an increase in oxidative stress in the early stages of disease severity and that abstinence from alcohol consumption favors the major antioxidant endogen: GSH in patients with advanced disease severity.

Prognostic significance of insulin-like growth factor-I serum levels in acute decompensation of cirrhosis

CONTEXT

IGF-I serum levels are suppressed in cirrhosis, but its prognostic significance is unknown.

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the prognostic value of IGF-I in patients admitted for acute decompensation of cirrhosis.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Cohort study that included 103 patients. IGF-I was measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA).

RESULTS

Ninety-day mortality was 26.2% and it was independently associated with MELD, age and IGF-I. The Kaplan-Meier survival probability at 90 days was 94.3% in patients with IGF-I ≥13 ng/mL and 63.2% for patients with IGF-I <13 ng/mL (p = .001).

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION

IGF-I levels are independently associated with mortality in acute decompensation of cirrhosis.

Liver regeneration - mechanisms and models to clinical application

Liver regeneration has been studied for many decades and the mechanisms underlying regeneration of the normal liver following resection or moderate damage are well described. A large number of factors extrinsic (such as bile acids and circulating growth factors) and intrinsic to the liver interact to initiate and regulate liver regeneration. Less well understood, and more clinically relevant, are the factors at play when the abnormal liver is required to regenerate. Fatty liver disease, chronic scarring, prior chemotherapy and massive liver injury can all inhibit the normal programme of regeneration and can lead to liver failure. Understanding these mechanisms could enable the rational targeting of specific therapies to either reduce the factors inhibiting regeneration or directly stimulate liver regeneration. Although animal models of liver regeneration have been highly instructive, the clinical relevance of some models could be improved to bridge the gap between our in vivo model systems and the clinical situation. Likewise, modern imaging techniques such as spectroscopy will probably improve our understanding of whole-organ metabolism and how this predicts the liver's regenerative capacity. This Review describes briefly the mechanisms underpinning liver regeneration, the models used to study this process, and discusses areas in which failed or compromised liver regeneration is clinically relevant.

Nationwide trends and predictors of inpatient mortality in 83884 transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt

AIM: To evaluate and validate the national trends and predictors of in-patient mortality of transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) in 15 years.

METHODS: Using the National Inpatient Sample which is a part of Health Cost and Utilization Project, we identified a discharge-weighted national estimate of 83884 TIPS procedures performed in the United States from 1998 to 2012 using international classification of diseases-9 procedural code 39.1. The demographic, hospital and co-morbility data were analyzed using a multivariant analysis. Using multi-nominal logistic regression analysis, we determined predictive factors related to increases in-hospital mortality. Comorbidity measures are in accordance to the Comorbidity Software designed by the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality.

RESULTS: Overall, 12.3% of patients died during hospitalization with downward trend in-hospital mortality with the mean length of stay of 10.8 ± 13.1 d. Notable, African American patients (OR = 1.809 vs Caucasian patients, P < 0.001), transferred patients (OR = 1.347 vs non-transferred, P < 0.001), emergency admissions (OR = 3.032 vs elective cases, P < 0.001), patients in the Northeast region (OR = 1.449 vs West, P < 0.001) had significantly higher odds of in-hospital mortality. Number of diagnoses and number of procedures showed positive correlations with in-hospital death (OR = 1.249 per one increase in number of procedures). Patients diagnosed with acute respiratory failure (OR = 8.246), acute kidney failure (OR = 4.359), hepatic encephalopathy (OR = 2.217) and esophageal variceal bleeding (OR = 2.187) were at considerably higher odds of in-hospital death compared with ascites (OR = 0.136, P < 0.001). Comorbidity measures with the highest odds of in-hospital death were fluid and electrolyte disorders (OR = 2.823), coagulopathy (OR = 2.016), and lymphoma (OR = 1.842).

CONCLUSION: The overall mortality of the TIPS procedure is steadily decreasing, though the length of stay has remained relatively constant. Specific patient ethnicity, location, transfer status, primary diagnosis and comorbidities correlate with increased odds of TIPS in-hospital death.

Characteristics and outcomes of transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt recipients in the VA Healthcare System

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) placement is an effective treatment for complications of portal hypertension. We aimed to describe post-TIPS mortality and its predictors in the modern era of covered stents.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We identified patients with cirrhosis who underwent TIPS insertion at Veterans Affairs Healthcare facilities nationally from 2004 to 2014 (n=703), most of which (95%) were performed as elective procedures. We followed patients until the date of death, transplantation, or the end of the observation period.

RESULTS

TIPS recipients had a mean age of 59.3 years (SD 8) and 97% were men. The mean Model for End Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score was 13 (SD 4.8); 47% had hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, 48% had variceal hemorrhage, and 40% had ascites. During a mean follow-up of 1.72 years (SD 1.9), 57.5% of TIPS recipients died (n=404) and only 5.3% underwent liver transplantation (n=37). The median survival after TIPS was 1.74 years (interquartile range 0.3-4.7). Thirty-day mortality after TIPS was 11.6% [95% confidence interval (CI) 9.4-14.2], 1-year mortality was 40.3% (95% CI 36.7-44.2), and 3-year mortality was 61.9% (95% CI 57.9-66.0). Independent predictors of post-TIPS mortality included medical comorbidity burden, low albumin, HCV infection, and high MELD score (or high international normalized ratio and bilirubin when the components of the MELD score were analyzed individually). TIPS revision was performed at least once in 27.3% of TIPS recipients.

CONCLUSION

TIPS should not be considered simply as a bridge to transplantation. Burden of extra-hepatic comorbidities, HCV infection, and low serum albumin strongly predict post-TIPS mortality in addition to the MELD score.

Comparison of the ability of the PDD-ICG clearance test, CTP, MELD, and MELD-Na to predict short-term and medium-term mortality in patients with decompensated hepatitis B cirrhosis

OBJECTIVE

Various methods, including the indocyanine green (ICG) clearance test, the Child-Turcotte-Pugh score (CTP), model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), and MELD combined with serum sodium concentration (MELD-Na), have been used widely in liver function evaluation in patients with end-stage liver disease. In this study, we compared the ability of these methods to predict mortality in patients with decompensated hepatitis B cirrhosis.

METHODS

A total of 98 patients with decompensated hepatitis B cirrhosis were included in this study and followed up for 12 months. The ICG-derived measurements (ICG-PDR, ICG-R15, EHBF), CTP, MELD, and MELD-Na were obtained within 2 days after patients' admission and patients' survival at 1, 3, 6, and 12 months was recorded. Receiver operating curve was used to evaluate the ability of these methods to predict mortality in these patients with decompensated hepatitis B cirrhosis.

RESULTS

At 1 month, 3 months, 6 months and 12 months, the cumulative number of deaths and liver transplant recipients was 12 (12.2%), 17 (17.3%), 21 (21.4%) and 25 (25.5%), respectively. The ICG-derived measurements, CTP, MELD, and MELD-Na of nonsurvivors were significantly different compared with that in survivors. All methods yielded viable values in predicting short-term and medium-term prognosis for patients with decompensated hepatitis B cirrhosis, with most area under the curve exceeding 0.8. Moreover, the ICG-derived measurements showed a significant correlation with that of CTP, MELD, and MELD-Na.

CONCLUSION

All four methods, ICG clearance test, CTP, MELD, and MELD-Na, provided reliable prediction of mortality in patients with decompensated hepatitis B cirrhosis for both short-term and medium-term prognosis.

Child-Pugh Versus MELD Score for the Assessment of Prognosis in Liver Cirrhosis: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Observational Studies

Child-Pugh and MELD scores have been widely used for the assessment of prognosis in liver cirrhosis. A systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to compare the discriminative ability of Child-Pugh versus MELD score to assess the prognosis of cirrhotic patients.PubMed and EMBASE databases were searched. The statistical results were summarized from every individual study. The summary areas under receiver operating characteristic curves, sensitivities, specificities, positive and negative likelihood ratios, and diagnostic odds ratios were also calculated.Of the 1095 papers initially identified, 119 were eligible for the systematic review. Study population was heterogeneous among studies. They included 269 comparisons, of which 44 favored MELD score, 16 favored Child-Pugh score, 99 did not find any significant difference between them, and 110 did not report the statistical significance. Forty-two papers were further included in the meta-analysis. In patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure, Child-Pugh score had a higher sensitivity and a lower specificity than MELD score. In patients admitted to ICU, MELD score had a smaller negative likelihood ratio and a higher sensitivity than Child-Pugh score. In patients undergoing surgery, Child-Pugh score had a higher specificity than MELD score. In other subgroup analyses, Child-Pugh and MELD scores had statistically similar discriminative abilities or could not be compared due to the presence of significant diagnostic threshold effects.Although Child-Pugh and MELD scores had similar prognostic values in most of cases, their benefits might be heterogeneous in some specific conditions. The indications for Child-Pugh and MELD scores should be further identified.

Peritoneal Dialysis is Associated With A Better Survival in Cirrhotic Patients With Chronic Kidney Disease

Peritoneal dialysis (PD) can be an ideal treatment in cirrhotic patients with ascites and chronic kidney disease stage 5 (CKD 5D) who require dialysis. The survival of cirrhotic patients with CKD 5D on PD, however, is not clear. We compared the survival of cirrhotic patients with CKD 5D on PD and the survival of those on HD. Two datasets including a cohort study of China Medical University Hospital (CMUH) from 2004 to 2013 and the Longitudinal National Health Insurance Database for Catastrophic Illness Patients (LHID-CIP) of Taiwan from 1996 to 2011 were analyzed. The survival of cirrhotic patients on PD and the propensity score matched cirrhotic patients on HD were analyzed using Cox proportional hazards regression. In CMUH cohort of 85 PD and 340 HD patients, the all-cause mortality was lower in PD patients compared to it in HD patients (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.48, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.31-0.74, P < 0.01) after adjustments for confounders. The severity of liver cirrhosis defined by Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) class (P < 0.01) was independently associated with all-cause mortality. The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score, however, was not associated with all-cause mortality. In the LHID-CIP cohort of 285 PD and 1140 HD patients, the HR of all-cause mortality in PD patients was 0.61 (95% CI: 0.47 - 0.79, P < 0.01), as compared with HD patients. PD in cirrhotic patients who need dialysis is associated with lower all-cause mortality than HD is. This association is independent of patients' comorbidity, severity of liver cirrhosis, and serum albumin levels.

High post-treatment absolute monocyte count predicted hepatocellular carcinoma risk in HCV patients who failed peginterferon/ribavirin therapy

Salient studies have investigated the association between host inflammatory response and cancer. This study was conducted to test the hypothesis that peripheral absolute monocyte counts (AMC) could impart an increased risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development in hepatitis C virus (HCV)-infected patients after a failed peginterferon/ribavirin (PR) combination therapy. A total of 723 chronic HCV-infected patients were treated with PR, of which 183 (25.3 %) patients did not achieve a sustained virological response (non-SVR). Post-treatment AMC values were measured at 6 months after end of PR treatment. Fifteen (2.8 %) of 540 patients with an SVR developed HCC during a median follow-up period of 41.4 months, and 14 (7.7 %) of 183 non-SVR patients developed HCC during a median follow-up of 36.8 months (log rank test for SVR vs. non-SVR, P = 0.002). Cox regression analysis revealed that post-treatment AFP level (HR 1.070; 95 % CI = 1.024-1.119, P = 0.003) and post-treatment aspartate aminotransferase (AST)-to-platelet ratio index (APRI) ≥0.5 (HR 4.401; 95 % CI = 1.463-13.233, P = 0.008) were independent variables associated with HCC development for SVR patients. For non-SVR patients, diabetes (HR 5.750; 95 % CI = 1.387-23.841, P = 0.016), post treatment AMC ≥370 mm(-3) (HR 5.805; 95 % CI = 1.268-26.573, P = 0.023), and post-treatment APRI ≥1.5 (HR 10.905; 95 % CI = 2.493-47.697, P = 0.002) were independent risks associated with HCC. In conclusion, post-treatment AMC has a role in prognostication of HCC development in HCV-infected patients who failed to achieve an SVR after PR combination therapy.

Patients with Advanced Pancreatic Cancer and Hyperbilirubinaemia: Review and German Expert Opinion on Treatment with nab-Paclitaxel plus Gemcitabine

In patients with advanced unresectable pancreatic cancer, the prognosis is generally poor. Within recent years, new treatment options such as the FOLFIRINOX regimen (5-fluorouracil, leucovorin, irinotecan and oxaliplatin) or the combination of nanoparticle albumin-bound (nab)-paclitaxel plus gemcitabine have shown a clinically relevant survival benefit over the standard gemcitabine in patients with good performance status. Unfortunately, patients with hyperbilirubinaemia, who constitute a substantial proportion of the pancreatic cancer patients, have been excluded from most clinical studies. Consequently, our knowledge on the appropriate medical treatment of this patient group is limited. In a meeting of German medical oncology experts, the available clinical evidence and own clinical experience regarding the management of patients with advanced pancreatic cancer and hyperbilirubinaemia was discussed. The present publication summarises the discussion outcomes with regard to appropriate management of these patients, including consensus-based recommendations for nab-paclitaxel/gemcitabine treatment, according to the best available evidence. In summary, knowledge of the underlying aetiology of hyperbilirubinaemia and the metabolisation routes of the cytotoxic drugs is crucial before initiating chemotherapy. As effective treatment options should also be made available to patients with comorbid conditions, including hyperbilirubinaemia, the experts provide advice for an initial dose reduction of chemotherapy with nab-paclitaxel/gemcitabine based on the total bilirubin level in patients with biliary obstruction or extensive liver metastasis.

The effect of plasma exchange on entecavir-treated chronic hepatitis B patients with hepatic de-compensation and acute-on-chronic liver failure

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Various studies showed that entecavir (ETV) failed to improve the short-term survival in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients with severe acute exacerbation (SAE) and hepatic de-compensation or acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). One study concluded that plasma exchange (PE) significantly decreased the short-term mortality of CHB patients with ACLF who were treated with lamivudine (LAM). Our study was designed to examine the effect of PE on CHB patients with ACLF who were treated with ETV.

METHODS

From August 2010 to January 2015, 38 (PE group) and 120 (control group) consecutive CHB-naïve patients with hepatic de-compensation and ACLF treated with PE plus ETV and ETV, respectively, were recruited. The primary endpoint was liver-related mortality at week 12. Biochemical and virological responses were also studied.

RESULTS

At baseline, the PE group had higher serum alanine aminotransferase (ALT) levels and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scores, and had lower albumin levels than the control group. The cumulative survival rate at week 4 and week 12 in the PE group and control group were, respectively, 37 and 18 %, and 29 and 14 % (p < 0.001, by log rank test). While the bilirubin levels in the PE group were more quickly lowered by PE therapy (p < 0.001), the decrease of ALT levels and virological response were similar in the two groups (p > 0.05). Univariate analysis showed that the control group had a higher liver-related mortality (p = 0.038) at week 12 than the PE group. Multivariate analysis showed that hepatic encephalopathy, ascites, PE treatment, and MELD scores were independent factors for liver-related mortality at week 12.

CONCLUSIONS

PE significantly improved the short-term survival of CHB patients with hepatic de-compensation and ACLF who were treated with ETV. Hepatic encephalopathy, ascites, PE treatment, and MELD scores were independent factors for liver-related mortality at week 12.

Platelet count combined with right liver volume and spleen volume measured by magnetic resonance imaging for identifying cirrhosis and esophageal varices

AIM: To determine whether the combination of platelet count (PLT) with spleen volume parameters and right liver volume (RV) measured by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) could predict the Child-Pugh class of liver cirrhosis and esophageal varices (EV).

METHODS: Two hundred and five cirrhotic patients with hepatitis B and 40 healthy volunteers underwent abdominal triphasic-enhancement MRI and laboratory examination of PLT in 10⁹/L. Cirrhotic patients underwent endoscopy for detecting EV. Spleen maximal width (W), thickness (T) and length (L) in mm together with spleen volume (SV) and RV in mm³ were measured by MRI, and spleen volume index (SI) in mm³ was obtained by W × T × L. SV/PLT, SI/PLT and RV × PLT/SV (RVPS) were calculated and statistically analyzed to assess cirrhosis and EV.

RESULTS: SV/PLT (r = 0.676) and SI/PLT (r = 0.707) increased, and PLT (r = -0.626) and RVPS (r = -0.802) decreased with the progress of Child-Pugh class (P < 0.001 for all). All parameters could determine the presence of cirrhosis, distinguish between each class of Child-Pugh class, and identify the presence of EV [the areas under the curve (AUCs) = 0.661-0.973]. Among parameters, RVPS could best determine presence and each class of cirrhosis with AUCs of 0.973 and 0.740-0.853, respectively; and SV/PLT could best identify EV with an AUC of 0.782.

CONCLUSION: The combination of PLT with SV and RV could predict Child-Pugh class of liver cirrhosis and identify the presence of esophageal varices.

Predictive accuracy comparison of MELD and Child-Turcotte-Pugh scores for survival in patients underwent TIPS placement: a systematic meta-analytic review

BACKGROUND

Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) and the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scores have been used commonly to predict the survival in the patients with liver diseases underwent transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS). However, a debate has continued for years whether CTP could be replaced by MELD score. We performed a systematic meta-analytic review to compare the prediction capability of both scores in survival among patients with TIPS.

METHODS

Retrospective cohort studies among patients with TIPS were published as of May 2013 were identified by systematically searching four electronic literature database, such as Ovid Medline, PubMed, EMBASE, and ISI Web of Science. The difference of standardized mean difference (SMD) of c-statistics for the predictive accuracy of 1-, 3-, 6-, and 12-month survival for both MELD and CP scores, defined as effect size (ES), was calculated for each individual study and then pooled across studies using standard meta-analyses with a random effects model. Publication bias was evaluated using funnel plots and Kendall's rank correlation tests.

RESULTS

174 researches articles or conference abstracts were searched and reviewed using the combination of relevant terms in the articles. Finally, 11 articles were defined as eligible studies to evaluate simultaneously the predictive accuracy of MELD and CTP scores. In the meta-analyses, MELD score was superior to CP score in predicting 3-month survival after TIPS (mean ES, 0.63; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.13-1.14; P=0.01), but the predictive capability in 1-month, 6-month, and 12-month survival was not significant (1-month: mean ES, 0.79; 95% CI, -0.24-1.83; P=0.13; 6-month: mean ES, 0.46; 95% CI, -2.46-3.37; P=0.76; 12-month: mean ES, 0.36; 95% CI, -0.25-0.96; P=0.25).

CONCLUSIONS

No enough evidence are confirmed so far that MELD score is better than CTP score to assess the overall prognosis after TIPS, especially long-term predictions, but 3-month predictive capability of MELD score significantly outperform CTP score.

Management of cirrhotic ascites

The most common complication to chronic liver failure is ascites. The formation of ascites in the cirrhotic patient is caused by a complex chain of pathophysiological events involving portal hypertension and progressive vascular dysfunction. Since ascites formation represents a hallmark in the natural history of chronic liver failure it predicts a poor outcome with a 50% mortality rate within 3 years. Patients with ascites are at high risk of developing complications such as spontaneous bacterial peritonitis, hyponatremia and progressive renal impairment. Adequate management of cirrhotic ascites and its complications betters quality of life and increases survival. This paper summarizes the pathophysiology behind cirrhotic ascites and the diagnostic approaches, as well as outlining the current treatment options. Despite improved medical treatment of ascites, liver transplantation remains the ultimate treatment and early referral of the patient to a highly specialized hepatology unit should always be considered.

Single-centre validation of the EASL-CLIF consortium definition of acute-on-chronic liver failure and CLIF-SOFA for prediction of mortality in cirrhosis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The idea of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) has emerged to identify those subjects with organ failure and high mortality rates. However, the absence of a precise definition has limited the clinical application and research related to the ACLF concept. We sought to validate the ACLF definition and the CLIF-SOFA Score recently proposed by the EASL-CLIF Consortium in a cohort of patients admitted for acute decompensation (AD) of cirrhosis.

METHODS

In this prospective cohort study, patients were followed during their hospital stay and thirty and 90-day mortality was evaluated by phone call, in case of hospital discharge. All subjects underwent laboratory evaluation at admission.

RESULTS

Between December 2010 and November 2013, 192 cirrhotic patients were included. At enrollment, 46 patients (24%) met the criteria for ACLF (Grades 1, 2 and 3 in 18%, 4% and 2% respectively). The 30-day mortality was 65% in ACLF group and 12% in the remaining subjects (P < 0.001). Logistic regression analysis showed that 30-day mortality was independently associated with ascites and ACLF at admission. The Kaplan-Meier survival probability at 90-day was 92% in patients without ascites or ACLF and only 22% for patients with both ascites and ACLF. The AUROC of CLIF-SOFA in predicting 30-day mortality was 0.847 ± 0.034, with sensitivity of 64%, specificity of 90% and positive likelihood ratio of 6.61 for values ≥9.

CONCLUSION

In our single-centre experience the CLIF-SOFA and the EASL-CLIF Consortium definition of ACLF proved to be strong predictors of short-term mortality in cirrhotic patients admitted for AD.

Quantification of hepatic blood flow using a high-resolution phase-contrast MRI sequence with compressed sensing acceleration

OBJECTIVE. The objective of our study was to evaluate the performance of a high-spatial-resolution 2D phase-contrast (PC) MRI technique accelerated with compressed sensing for portal vein (PV) and hepatic artery (HA) flow quantification in comparison with a standard PC MRI sequence. SUBJECTS AND METHODS. In this prospective study, two PC MRI sequences were compared, one with parallel imaging acceleration and low spatial resolution (generalized autocalibrating partial parallel acquisition [GRAPPA]) and one with compressed sensing acceleration and high spatial resolution (sparse). Seventy-six patients were assessed, including 37 patients with cirrhosis. Two observers evaluated PC image quality. Quantitative analyses yielded a mean velocity, flow, and vessel area for the PV and HA and an arterial fraction. The PC techniques were compared using the paired Wilcoxon test and Bland-Altman statistics. The sensitivity of the flow parameters to the severity of cirrhosis was also assessed. RESULTS. Vessel delineation was significantly improved using the PC sparse sequence (p < 0.034). For both in vitro and in vivo measurements, PC sparse yielded lower estimates for vessel area and flow, and larger differences between PC GRAPPA and PC sparse were observed in the HA. PV velocity and flow were significantly lower in patients with cirrhosis on both PC sparse (p < 0.001 and p = 0.042, respectively) and PC GRAPPA (p < 0.001 and p = 0.005, respectively). PV velocity correlated negatively with Child-Pugh class (r = -0.50, p < 0.001), whereas the arterial fraction measured with PC sparse was higher in patients with Child-Pugh class B or C disease than in those with Child-Pugh class A disease, with a trend toward significance (p = 0.055). CONCLUSION. A high-spatial-resolution highly accelerated compressed sensing technique (PC sparse) allows total hepatic blood flow measurements obtained in 1 breath-hold, provides improved delineation of the hepatic vessels compared with a standard PC MRI sequence (GRAPPA), and can potentially be used for the noninvasive assessment of liver cirrhosis.

Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratios as predictors of survival and metastasis for recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma after transarterial chemoembolization

Purpose

To evaluate whether neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) predict survival and metastasis in patients after transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) for recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma (RHCC).

Materials and Methods

Clinical and laboratory data from 132 RHCC patients treated with TACE from January 2003 to December 2012 were retrospectively reviewed. Prognostic factors were assessed by multivariate analysis, and the predictive values of NLR and PLR for overall survival (OS) and extrahepatic metastases were compared.

Results

Pretreatment mean NLR and PLR were 3.1 and 137, respectively. The 0.5-, 1-, and 2-year OS rates were 93.7%, 67.1%, and 10.1% in the low NLR group and 81.1%, 18.9%, and 3.8% in the high NLR group, respectively (P = 0.017). The corresponding OS rates in the low and high PLR groups were 92.5%, 58.1%, and 9.7% and 84.6%, 23.1%, and 2.6%, respectively (P = 0.030). The discriminatory performance predicting 1-year survival probability was significantly poorer for NLR (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.685, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.598–0.763) than for PLR (AUC = 0.792, 95% CI 0.712–0.857; P = 0.0295), but was good for both ratios for predicting post-TACE extrahepatic metastasis. Multivariate analysis indicated that high PLR (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.373, 95% CI = 0.216-0.644, P < 0.001, vascular invasion (HR = 0.507, 95% CI = 0.310–0.832, P = 0.007), and multiple tumors (HR= 0.553, 95% CI = 0.333–0.919, P = 0.022) were independent prognostic factors for OS.

Conclusions

High NLR and PLR were both associated with poor prognosis and metastasis in RHCC patients treated with TACE, but high PLR was a better predictor of 1-year OS. High PLR, vascular invasion, and multiple tumors were independent, unfavorable prognostic factors.

Long-term clinical outcome of patients with cirrhosis and refractory ascites treated with transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt insertion

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) is indicated for the treatment of refractory ascites in cirrhosis. The long-term outcome of TIPS for refractory ascites is unknown. The aim of this study is to describe the natural history of patients with refractory ascites post-TIPS, and compare between polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE)-covered versus bare stents.

METHODS

A retrospective chart review of patients who had TIPS for refractory ascites was conducted. Prospectively collected data include demographics, angiographic data, blood work, and urinary sodium excretion.

RESULTS

There were 136 patients who received TIPS (bare = 104, covered = 32) for over 22 years. Patients with PTFE stents had lower international normalized ratio and model for end-stage liver disease score. More patients with bare stents developed shunt dysfunction (74.0% vs 24.1%, P < 0.0001) and required more TIPS revisions (1.6 ± 0.2/patient vs 0.2 ± 0.1, P < 0.0001). Urinary sodium excretion increased significantly from first month and progressed to 98 ± 9 mmol/day at 12th month post-TIPS (P < 0.001 vs baseline), concurrent with improved renal function. Most patients (77.6%) completely cleared the ascites without diuretics, but many achieved this beyond 2 years. Number of TIPS revision was predictive of complete response at 12 months (odds ratio [OR] 0.7, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.5-0.9, P < 0.05). Age (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.05 [95% CI 1.02-1.08], P < 0.01), complete response (HR = 0.22 [95% CI 0.12-0.40], P < 0.0001) and polytetrafluoroethylene stents (HR = 0.23 [95% CI 0.05-0.97], P < 0.05) were predictive of survival.

CONCLUSION

TIPS is an effective treatment for cirrhotic refractory ascites. Ascites clearance is dependent on number of TIPS revision, whereas survival is predicted by younger age, complete response, and covered stent use, although era effect likely contributed to improved survival with covered stent use.

Reduced serum chemerin in patients with more severe liver cirrhosis

Chemerin is a well-established modulator of immune cell function and its serum levels are induced in inflammatory diseases. Liver cirrhosis is associated with inflammation which is aggravated by portal hypertension. The objective of this study was to evaluate whether chemerin is induced in patients with more severe liver cirrhosis and portal hypertension. Chemerin has been measured by ELISA in the portal venous serum (PVS), systemic venous serum (SVS) and hepatic venous serum (HVS) of 45 patients with liver cirrhosis. Chemerin is higher in HVS compared to PVS in accordance with our recently published finding. SVS, HVS and PVS chemerin decline in patients with more advanced liver injury defined by the CHILD-PUGH score. Hepatic chemerin has been determined in a small cohort and is similarly expressed in normal and cirrhotic liver. MELD score and serum markers of liver and kidney function do not correlate with chemerin. There is a positive correlation of chemerin in all compartments with Quick prothrombin time and of SVS chemerin with systolic blood pressure. PVS chemerin is induced in patients with modest/massive ascites but this does not translate into higher HVS and SVS levels. Chemerin is not associated with variceal size. Reduction of portal pressure by transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt does not affect chemerin levels. These data show that low chemerin in patients with more severe liver cirrhosis is associated with reduced Quick prothrombin time.

Comparison of Cox's Regression Model and Parametric Models in Evaluating the Prognostic Factors for Survival after Liver Transplantation in Shiraz during 2000-2012

BACKGROUND

Identification of the prognostic factors for survival in patients with liver transplantation is challengeable. Various methods of survival analysis have provided different, sometimes contradictory, results from the same data.

OBJECTIVE

To compare Cox's regression model with parametric models for determining the independent factors for predicting adults' and pediatrics' survival after liver transplantation.

METHOD

This study was conducted on 183 pediatric patients and 346 adults underwent liver transplantation in Namazi Hospital, Shiraz, southern Iran. The study population included all patients undergoing liver transplantation from 2000 to 2012. The prognostic factors sex, age, Child class, initial diagnosis of the liver disease, PELD/MELD score, and pre-operative laboratory markers were selected for survival analysis.

RESULT

Among 529 patients, 346 (64.5%) were adult and 183 (34.6%) were pediatric cases. Overall, the lognormal distribution was the best-fitting model for adult and pediatric patients. Age in adults (HR=1.16, p<0.05) and weight (HR=2.68, p<0.01) and Child class B (HR=2.12, p<0.05) in pediatric patients were the most important factors for prediction of survival after liver transplantation. Adult patients younger than the mean age and pediatric patients weighing above the mean and Child class A (compared to those with classes B or C) had better survival.

CONCLUSION

Parametric regression model is a good alternative for the Cox's regression model.

The performance of prognostic models as predictors of mortality in patients with acute decompensation of cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Although several prognostic models have been proposed for cirrhotic patients listed for transplantation, the performance of these scores as predictors of mortality in patients admitted for acute decompensation of cirrhosis has not been satisfactorily investigated.

AIMS

To study MELD, MELD-Na, MESO, iMELD, Refit-MELD and Refit MELD-Na models as prognostic predictors in cirrhotic patients admitted for acute decompensation, and to compare their performance between admission and 48 hours of hospitalization to predict in-hospital mortality.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

This cohort study included cirrhotic patients admitted to hospital due to complications of the disease. Individuals were evaluated on admission and after 48 h of hospitalization, and mortality was evaluated during the present admission.

RESULTS

One hundred and twenty-three subjects with a mean age of 54.26 ± 10.79 years were included; 76.4% were male. Mean MELD score was 16.43 ± 7.08 and 52.0% of patients were Child-Pugh C. Twenty-seven patients (22.0%) died during hospitalization. Similar areas under the curve (AUROCs) for prognosis of mortality were observed when different models were compared on admission (P > 0.05) and after 48 h of hospitalization (P > 0.05). When models executed after 48 h of hospitalization were compared to their corresponding model calculated on admission, significantly higher AUROCs were obtained for all models (P < 0.05), except for MELD-Na (P = 0.075) and iMELD (P = 0.119).

CONCLUSION

The studied models showed similar accuracy as predictors of in-hospital mortality in cirrhotic patients admitted for acute decompensation. However, the performance of these models was significantly better when applied 48 h after admission when compared to their calculation on admission.