Trends in Stroke Incidence in Auckland, New Zealand, During 1981 to 2003

Neuropsychological Profiles of 5-Year Ischemic Stroke Survivors by Oxfordshire Stroke Classification and Hemisphere of Lesion

Background and Purpose—

Although the neuropsychological literature typically examines stroke outcomes by hemisphere of lesion, the medical literature provides classifications more closely linked to circulatory distribution impacted by stroke. This article examined profiles of cognitive function by hemisphere and by Oxfordshire Community Stroke Project stroke classification.

Methods—

This study included a sample of 315 5-year ischemic stroke survivors. Assessment included tests of verbal memory, visual memory, word finding/verbal fluency, abstract visual reasoning, executive functioning, and speed of processing.

Results—

The sample produced scores within 1 standard deviation of the normative mean on tests of abstract visual reasoning, verbal memory, and visual recall. Impaired performances were observed for executive function and processing speed. Profile analysis revealed no significant differences in overall cognitive performance or in the profile of performance across measures by hemisphere of lesion. However, groups defined by Oxfordshire Community Stroke Project categories produced significantly different cognitive profiles. Post hoc analyses indicate those with posterior stroke performed best overall on all tests except the Stroop Dots trial, whereas those with total anterior stroke produced significantly worse scores on tasks requiring visual abstract reasoning (Block Design, Rey Figure Copy), word finding (Boston Naming Test), and processing speed (Stroop Dots, Trails A).

Conclusions—

Oxfordshire Community Stroke Project stroke subtypes identified significant differences between groups, suggesting this classification system is of greater use than hemisphere of lesion in predicting poststroke cognitive outcomes.

The spectrum captured: a methodological approach to studying incidence and outcomes of traumatic brain injury on a population level

OBJECTIVE

Drawing on the experience of conducting the Brain Injury Incidence and Outcomes New Zealand in the Community study, this article aims to identify the issues arising from the implementation of proposed guidelines for population-based studies of incidence and outcomes in traumatic brain injury (TBI).

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

All new cases of TBI (all ages and severities) were ascertained over a 1-year period, using overlapping prospective and retrospective sources of case ascertainment in New Zealand. All eligible TBI cases were invited to participate in a comprehensive assessment at baseline and at 1-month follow-up.

RESULTS

Our experience to date has revealed the feasibility of case ascertainment methods. Consultation with community health services and professionals resulted in feasible referral pathways to support the identification of TBI cases. 'Hot pursuit' methods of recruitment were essential to ensure complete case ascertainment for this population with few additional cases of TBI identified through cross-checks.

CONCLUSION

This review of proposed guidelines in relation to practical study methodology provides a framework for future comparable population-based epidemiological studies of TBI incidence and outcomes in developed countries.

Are stroke units cost effective? Evidence from a New Zealand stroke incidence and population-based study

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Acute stroke units in hospitals are known to be more costly than standard care, but proponents claim that the health gains will justify the expense. Yet, despite widespread adoption of stroke units, the evidence on the cost effectiveness of stroke units has been mixed, due in part to differences in the pathway of care across hospitals. The purpose of this study is to compare costs and outcomes for patients admitted to a stroke unit with those admitted to a general ward.

METHODS

Data on 530 stroke sufferers from a large incidence study of stroke (the Auckland Regional Community Stroke Outcome Study) were used. Cost of health services, places of discharge were identified at one-, six- and 12 months poststroke and were linked with long-term cost and survival five-years poststroke. A decision analytical model was developed, including the relationship between waiting time for discharge and probability of admission to stroke unit. Cost effectiveness was determined using a willingness to pay threshold of NZ$20 000 (US$15 234).

RESULTS

Regression analysis suggested that there were no significant differences between patients admitted to a stroke unit and a general ward. The incremental cost-utility ratio for the first-year was NZ$42 813/quality-adjusted life year (US$32 610/quality-adjusted life year), but fell substantially to NZ$6747/quality-adjusted life year (US$5139/quality-adjusted life year) when lifetime costs and outcomes were considered. Probabilistic and one-way sensitivity analysis suggests that the results are robust to areas of uncertainty or delays in the pathway of care.

CONCLUSION

Stroke unit care was cost effective in Auckland, New Zealand.

Socioeconomic disparities in stroke rates and outcome: pooled analysis of stroke incidence studies in Australia and New Zealand

OBJECTIVE

To assess the influence of area-level socioeconomic status (SES) on incidence and case-fatality rates for stroke.

DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Analysis of pooled data for 3077 patients with incident stroke from three population-based studies in Perth, Melbourne, and Auckland between 1995 and 2003.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Incidence and 12-month case-fatality rates for stroke.

RESULTS

Annual age-standardised stroke incidence rates ranged from 77 per 100,000 person-years (95% CI, 72-83) in the least deprived areas to 131 per 100,000 person-years (95% CI, 120-141) in the most deprived areas (rate ratio, 1.70; 95% CI, 1.47-1.95; P < 0.001). The population attributable risk of stroke was 19% (95% CI, 12%-27%) for those living in the most deprived areas compared with the least deprived areas. Compared with people in the least deprived areas, those in the most deprived areas tended to be younger (mean age, 68 v 77 years; P < 0.001), had more comorbidities such as hypertension (58% v 51%; P < 0.001) and diabetes (22% v 12%; P < 0.001), and were more likely to smoke (23% v 8%; P < 0.001). After adjustment for age, area-level SES was not associated with 12-month case-fatality rate.

CONCLUSIONS

Our analysis provides evidence that people living in areas that are relatively more deprived in socioeconomic terms experience higher rates of stroke. This may be explained by a higher prevalence of risk factors among these populations, such as hypertension, diabetes and cigarette smoking. Effective preventive measures in the more deprived areas of the community could substantially reduce rates of stroke.

Methodological issues in monitoring health services and outcomes for stroke survivors: a case study

BACKGROUND

Obtaining comprehensive health outcomes and health services utilization data on stroke patients has been difficult. This research grew out of a memorandum of understanding between the NIH and the ISS (its Italian equivalent) to foster collaborative research on rehabilitation.

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this study was to pilot a methodology using administrative data to monitor and improve health outcomes for stroke survivors in Tuscany.

METHODS

This study used qualitative and quantitative methods to study health resources available to and utilized by stroke survivors during the first 12 months post-stroke in two Italian health authorities (AUSL10 and 11). Mortality rates were used as an outcome measure.

RESULTS

Number of inpatient days, number of prescriptions, and prescription costs were significantly higher for patients in AUSL 10 compared to AUSL 11. There was no significant difference between mortality rates.

CONCLUSION

Using administrative data to monitor process and outcomes for chronic stroke has the potential to save money and improve outcomes. However, measures of functional impairment and more sensitive outcome measures than mortality are important. Additional recommendations for enhanced data collection and reporting are discussed.

Stroke in diabetic patients

Stroke is the leading cause of disability and the second most frequent cause of death worldwide. On the one hand, diabetic patients have a 1.5 to 3-times higher risk of stroke, especially cerebral infarction, than non-diabetic subjects. This excess risk, which is particularly pronounced in younger individuals and women, can be reduced by effective therapeutic strategies aimed at improving glycaemic control and the management of co-morbid conditions such as hypertension and dyslipidaemia. On the other hand, the prevalence of diabetes in stroke patients is between 10 and 20%, and has been increasing over the last 20 years, probably in response to rising rates of overweight and obesity in the general population and other factors such as a sedentary lifestyle. Even though diabetes has long been considered a specific risk factor of lacunar stroke, recent epidemiological studies have demonstrated that this risk factor was in fact not associated with any ischemic stroke subtype. Finally, it has been suggested that diabetic stroke patients have poorer motor and functional outcomes, and are at a higher risk of dementia, recurrent stroke and death.

Attention deficits after incident stroke in the acute period: frequency across types of attention and relationships to patient characteristics and functional outcomes

BACKGROUND

Attention deficits are common post stroke and result in poorer functional outcomes. This study examined the frequency of attention deficits after incident stroke and their correlates.

METHOD

Attention of 94 stroke survivors was assessed using the Bells test, Trails Making Test A/B, 2.4- and 2.0-second trials of the Paced Auditory Serial Addition Test (PASAT), and Integrated Auditory Visual Continuous Performance Test (IVA-CPT) within 3 weeks post stroke. Wider functioning was assessed using the Medical Short Form-36 (SF-36) Physical and Mental Component Summary scores (PCS and MCS), London Handicap Scale, Modified Rankin Scale, General Health Questionnaire-28, and Cognitive Failures Questionnaire (CFQ).

RESULTS

Most participants were impaired or very impaired on the IVA-CPT (z scores ≯ 3 SDs below normative mean) but not other attention measures. Functional independence and cognitive screening test (Mini-Mental State Examination) performance were significantly related to IVA-CPT, Trails A/B, and Bells tests but not PASAT. Better performance across the Bells test was related to better SF-36 PCS, whereas Trails A and the PASAT were related to SF-36 MCS. Better CFQ naming was related to Trails B, whereas worse CFQ memory was related to better PASAT performance.

CONCLUSION

Attention deficits are common post stroke, though frequency varies widely across the forms of attention assessed, with tests of neglect and speeded attention tasks being linked to quality of life. This variability of performance and linking to wider outcomes suggests the need for comprehensive assessment of attention and that attention is a viable target for rehabilitative efforts.

Ethnicity and functional outcome after stroke

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

There is limited information on the influence of ethnicity on functional outcome after stroke. We examined functional outcomes among European New Zealanders, Māori, Pacific, and Asian people 6 months after stroke in a population-based context.

METHODS

This was a prospective incidence and 6-month outcomes study of all new stroke patients (excluding subarachnoid hemorrhage) that occurred over 1 year in a defined geographical area in Auckland, New Zealand, during 2002 to 2003. Ethnicity was self-defined. Outcome measures included the Frenchay Activities Index, 36-item Short Form questionnaire, independence, death, composite of death and dependence, and living situation.

RESULTS

Functional measures were available in 1127 patients 6 months after stroke. Frenchay Activities Index scores were associated with ethnicity on both univariable and multivariable analysis, with Asian and Pacific people having worse scores. Physical Component Summary score of the 36-item Short Form was associated with ethnicity on univariable (scores for Pacific, Māori, and Asian people were higher than those for Europeans) but not multivariable analysis. Asian people were less likely to be dead compared to Europeans, and Pacific people were more likely to be dependent on others for help than Europeans. Pacific people were more likely to be dead or dependent than Europeans. Asian and Pacific people were more likely to be living at home than Europeans.

CONCLUSIONS

Ethnicity was associated independently with functional outcomes. The association was attenuated when adjusted for stroke severity and other covariates. The direction of the relationship was not consistent between measures for individual ethnic groups.

Age-period-cohort analysis of stroke incidence in Dijon from 1985 to 2005

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Variations in stroke incidence could be explained by changes in vascular and environmental factors that affect the risk of stroke and changes in risk factors that are present in early life. The aim of this study was to identify and measure the effects of 3 interrelated factors, age, calendar period of stroke onset, and birth year cohort, on the incidence rates of stroke from 1985 through 2005.

METHODS

Age-period-cohort models were used to analyze stroke incidence in Dijon from 1985 to 2005 from a population-based registry that collects data on all stroke patients whatever the type of management, in the public hospital, private hospitals, or at home, in the population of Dijon (150,000 inhabitants).

RESULTS

For ischemic stroke, the incidence rose with time in men depending not only on age, but also on the period and cohort effects (P = 0.017). For women, the incidence only depended on age (P < 0.001; incidence rate ratio, 1.085; 95% CI, 1.081 to 1.089). For hemorrhagic stroke, the rise in the incidence with time depended only on age in men, whereas in women, it depended on age, period, and cohort effects (P = 0.019).

CONCLUSIONS

Age, birth cohort, and calendar period contain relevant information to define and explain trends in stroke incidence rates over a long period.

Disability burden due to stroke in Western Australia: new insights from linked data sources

BACKGROUND

The disability-adjusted life year index is used extensively to compare disease burden among diseases and locations, but difficulties remain in accurately estimating the nonfatal stroke burden in years lived with disability.

AIMS

To improve stroke-related years lived with disability estimates in Western Australia for 2000, by improving the accuracy of component inputs: nonfatal (28-day survivor) incidence, disease duration and disability (severity) weights.

METHODS

Nonfatal stroke incidence and the mortality difference between prevalent cases and the general population were estimated from linked hospital and mortality data using the Western Australian Data Linkage System. dismod software used these inputs to model disease duration. Disability weights were estimated from population-based stroke survey data, using indirect health valuation methods and adjusting for prestroke disability. Years lived with disability were calculated from the three components.

RESULTS

The annual age-standardised nonfatal incidence (n=1985) was higher in males (121/100,000) than females (96/100,000). The duration varied between 35.8 (females 15-24 years) and 3.4 years (males 85+ years). The mean pre-stroke-adjusted disability weight was higher at 4-months (0.38) than at 12-months (0.31). The age-standardised rate of nonfatal burden in males (302/100,000; 95% CI 290-314) was significantly higher than that in females (250/100,000; 95% CI 240-260). The nonfatal proportion of stroke burden (males 45%; females 37%) was higher than estimated in previous studies.

CONCLUSION

This study illustrates that previous reports most likely underestimated disability burden as a contributor to the total stroke burden in Australia. Methodological refinements will contribute to burden of disease studies elsewhere.

How does self-reported history of stroke compare to hospitalization data in a population-based survey in New Zealand?

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

There is mixed evidence concerning the validity of self-reported history of stroke in population-based studies. We aimed to examine the validity of self-reported stroke using hospitalization with a primary diagnosis of stroke as the reference group.

METHODS

Self-reported history of stroke was taken from the Survey of Families, Income, and Employment (N=18 950; 2004-2005) and defined as a respondent answering yes to the question, "Have you ever been told by a doctor that you have had a stroke?". Survey of Families, Income, and Employment respondents consented to link their data to the New Zealand Health Information Service records of publically funded hospitalizations between 1990 and 2006. We calculated positive predictive value, sensitivity, and specificity of self-reported stroke against hospitalization for stroke.

RESULTS

Approximately 2% of the adult Survey of Families, Income, and Employment population reported they had been told by a doctor that they had a stroke. Only 1% had evidence of hospitalization for stroke since 1990. The sensitivity of self-reported stroke was 73% and specificity was 98%. However, the positive predictive value, people who reported having a stroke with confirmation of hospitalization for stroke, was low at 29%.

CONCLUSIONS

The use of self-reported stroke will most likely overestimate the prevalence of stroke. A combination of methods is required to determine prevalence in population-based studies.

Rehabilitation and indigenous peoples: the Māori experience

Indigenous peoples often have the worst health status in comparison to non-indigenous people in their own nations; urgent action to address the health inequities for indigenous people is required. The role of rehabilitation in addressing health and disability inequities is particularly important due to the health need of indigenous peoples; the unequal distribution of health determinants; and disparities in access to, quality of care through and outcomes following rehabilitation. This article will present a perspective for Māori, the indigenous peoples of New Zealand, on a framework for improving rehabilitation services for Māori and ultimately their health and wellbeing.

Trends in Case-Fatality Rates in Hospitalized Nontraumatic Subarachnoid Hemorrhage: Results of a Population-Based Study in Dijon, France, From 1985 to 2006

BACKGROUND

Subarachnoid hemorrhage accounts for 2% to 5% of all strokes and is associated with high morbidity and mortality rates. Reports in the literature show that case-fatality rates vary with time and according to geographical area.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of the study was to evaluate the case-fatality rates in subarachnoid hemorrhage at 1 and 6 months and to determine trends in these rates over 22 years using a population-based registry.

METHODS

The Dijon Stroke Registry has enabled us to perform a comprehensive analysis of subarachnoid hemorrhage diagnosed in a population of &gt;150 000 inhabitants hospitalized between 1985 and 2006 in the Dijon University Hospital, which has both a neurosurgery unit and a neuroradiology unit. Diagnosis was based on clinical and neuroimaging features and, when necessary, on lumbar puncture.

RESULTS

Case-fatality rates for hospitalized subarachnoid hemorrhages at 1 and 6 months were 15.59% (95% confidence interval [CI], 9.37–25.34) and 16.84% (95% CI, 10.33–26.78), respectively. From 1985 to 1995, case-fatality rates for SAH at 1 and 6 months were 17.1% (95% CI, 8.1–34.2) and 17.7% (95% CI, 9.6–31.3), whereas from 1996 to 2006, they were 20.2% (95% CI, 10.2–37.8) and 19.7% (95% CI, 11.1–33.6), respectively.

CONCLUSION

Case-fatality rates for hospitalized subarachnoid hemorrhages in this population-based study remained stable over 22 years, suggesting that this stroke subtype is still a very severe disease despite early management. Most deaths occurred during the first 30 days. Further work is necessary to evaluate levels of prehospital case-fatality in our population-based registry.

The health loss from ischemic stroke and intracerebral hemorrhage: evidence from the North East Melbourne Stroke Incidence Study (NEMESIS)

BACKGROUND

People suffering different types of stroke have differing demographic characteristics and survival. However, current estimates of disease burden are based on the same underlying assumptions irrespective of stroke type. We hypothesized that average Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) lost from stroke would be different for ischemic stroke and intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH).

METHODS

We used 1 and 5-year data collected from patients with first-ever stroke participating in the North East Melbourne Stroke Incidence Study (NEMESIS). We calculated case fatality rates, health-adjusted life expectancy, and quality-of-life (QoL) weights specific to each age and gender category. Lifetime 'health loss' for first-ever ischemic stroke and ICH surviving 28-days for the 2004 Australian population cohort was then estimated. Multivariable uncertainty analyses and sensitivity analyses (SA) were used to assess the impact of varying input parameters e.g. case fatality and QoL weights.

RESULTS

Paired QoL data at 1 and 5 years were available for 237 NEMESIS participants. Extrapolating NEMESIS rates, 31,539 first-ever strokes were expected for Australia in 2004. Average discounted (3%) QALYs lost per first-ever stroke were estimated to be 5.09 (SD 0.20; SA 5.49) for ischemic stroke (n = 27,660) and 6.17 (SD 0.26; SA 6.45) for ICH (n = 4,291; p < 0.001). QALYs lost also differed according to gender for both subtypes (ischemic stroke: males 4.69 SD 0.38, females 5.51 SD 0.46; ICH: males 5.82 SD 0.67, females 6.50 SD 0.40).

DISCUSSION

People with ICH incurred greater loss of health over a lifetime than people with ischemic stroke. This is explained by greater stroke related case fatality at a younger age, but longer life expectancy with disability after the first 12 months for people with ICH. Thus, studies of disease burden in stroke should account for these differences between subtype and gender. Otherwise, in countries where ICH is more common, health loss for stroke may be underestimated. Similar to other studies of this type, the generalisability of the results may be limited. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses were used to provide a plausible range of variation for Australia. In countries with demographic and life expectancy characteristics comparable to Australia, our QoL weights may be reasonably applicable.

Changes in risk factors and preventive treatments by stroke subtypes over 20 years: a population-based study

In order to evaluate progress in preventive therapeutic strategies, and to identify potential targets for improvement, it is essential to assess changes in the risk factors and preventive treatment of stroke over time. All of the strokes occurring within the population of Dijon, France (150,000 inhabitants), were prospectively ascertained from 1985 to 2004. Changes in stroke risk factors and preventive medications were analyzed by stroke subtypes. We recorded 725 lacunar infarcts (LI), 497 cardioembolic (CE) strokes, 2054 ischemic stroke from atheroma of large arteries or from other and undetermined causes (OIS), and 341 primary cerebral haemorrhages (PCH). Over the 20years, the prevalence of hypercholesterolemia increased whatever the stroke subtype (p<0.01) whereas that of diabetes only rose in LI and OIS stroke. The proportion of stroke patients on antiplatelet agents increased overall (p<0.01) and the proportion of patients on anticoagulants rose in CE stroke (p=0.01) and PCH (p<0.01). The proportion of patients on antihypertensive treatment only increased in CE stroke (p=0.01). The risk factor profile and the preventive treatments in stroke patients showed divergent variations over the 20years, according to the stroke subtype considered. These modifications certainly reflect changes in the therapeutic strategies for the preventive management of the population at risk.

Age- and sex-specific trends in fatal incidence and hospitalized incidence of stroke in Scotland, 1986 to 2005

BACKGROUND

Temporal trends in stroke incidence are unclear. We aimed to examine age- and sex-specific temporal trends in incidence of fatal and nonfatal hospitalized stroke in Scotland from 1986 to 2005.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Mean age at the time of first stroke was 70.8 (SD, 12.9) years in men and 76.4 (12.9) years in women. Between 1986 and 2005, rates fell in men from 235 (95% CI, 229 to 242) to 149 (144 to 154) and in women from 299 (292 to 306) to 182 (177 to 188). Poisson modeling showed that temporal trends were influenced by age with declines in incidence of hospitalized stroke starting later in younger than older age groups. In both men and women aged under 55 years, the overall incidence rate of stroke was significantly higher in 2005 than in 1986.

CONCLUSIONS

We report in a whole country that the overall incidence of stroke declined steadily and substantially between 1986 and 2005, with a relative reduction in the risk of stroke of 31% in men and 42% in women. Reductions in rates of both hospitalized and nonhospitalized fatal stroke contributed to this overall decline. The increase in incident stroke rates in young people is of concern.

Psychosocial Outcomes in StrokE: the POISE observational stroke study protocol

Background

Each year, approximately 12,000 Australians of working age survive a stroke. As a group, younger stroke survivors have less physical impairment and lower mortality after stroke compared with older survivors; however, the psychosocial and economic consequences are potentially substantial. Most of these younger stroke survivors have responsibility for generating an income or providing family care and indicate that their primary objective is to return to work. However, effective vocational rehabilitation strategies to increase the proportion of younger stroke survivors able to return to work, and information on the key target areas for those strategies, are currently lacking.

Methods/Design

This multi-centre, three year cohort study will recruit a representative sample of younger (< 65 years) stroke survivors to determine the modifiable predictors of subsequent return to work. Participants will be recruited from the New South Wales Stroke Services (SSNSW) network, the only well established and cohesively operating and managed, network of acute stroke units in Australia. It is based within the Greater Metropolitan area of Sydney including Wollongong and Newcastle, and extends to rural areas including Wagga Wagga. The study registration number is ACTRN12608000459325.

Discussion

The study is designed to identify targets for rehabilitation-, social- and medical-intervention strategies that promote and maintain healthy ageing in people with cardiovascular and mental health conditions, two of the seven Australian national health priority areas. This will rectify the paucity of information internationally around optimal clinical practice and social policy in this area.

Worldwide stroke incidence and early case fatality reported in 56 population-based studies: a systematic review

This systematic review of population-based studies of the incidence and early (21 days to 1 month) case fatality of stroke is based on studies published from 1970 to 2008. Stroke incidence (incident strokes only) and case fatality from 21 days to 1 month post-stroke were analysed by four decades of study, two country income groups (high-income countries and low to middle income countries, in accordance with the World Bank's country classification) and, when possible, by stroke pathological type: ischaemic stroke, primary intracerebral haemorrhage, and subarachnoid haemorrhage. This Review shows a divergent, statistically significant trend in stroke incidence rates over the past four decades, with a 42% decrease in stroke incidence in high-income countries and a greater than 100% increase in stroke incidence in low to middle income countries. In 2000-08, the overall stroke incidence rates in low to middle income countries have, for the first time, exceeded the level of stroke incidence seen in high-income countries, by 20%. The time to decide whether or not stroke is an issue that should be on the governmental agenda in low to middle income countries has now passed. Now is the time for action.

[Stroke in elderly: what have we learned from stroke epidemiology in younger people]

Stroke in the elderly has more major differences compared to young people: it is the first complication of atherothrombosis disease associated with the following risk factors: hypertension, diabetes, hypercholesterolemia, tobacco consumption and sleep apnea syndrome; AVC is the first consequence of atrial fibrillation; from a clinical point of view, seizure at the onset of the stroke is more frequent; prognosis is characterized by a high risk of dementia (20%); primary and secondary prevention is very efficacious even in very old patients, not only on the risk of stroke, but also on the risk of dementia; time trends at Dijon show a slight decrease of incidence rates of stroke only over 85 years, while prevention of stroke has taken advantage of real progress in precocious diagnosis and innovative treatments. In contrast, we observed a decrease of case-fatality rates at any day with a delay in age of onset of stroke, reaching five years in men and eight years in women, suggesting an increase of life expectancy without stroke, reflecting a certain efficacy of prevention.

The projected burden of stroke in the German federal state of Hesse up to the year 2050

INTRODUCTION

The aging of the population in Germany will lead to an increased number of stroke patients, but at present there are hardly any concrete estimates of how many stroke patients can be expected in the future.

METHODS

This study provides estimates of future numbers of stroke patients in the German federal state of Hesse up to the year 2050. The calculations are based on data obtained from a state-wide quality assurance program for stroke, as well as on demographic data provided by the Statistical Office of the state of Hesse.

RESULTS

The annual number of stroke patients in Hesse is projected to increase steadily from 20 846 in 2005 to more than 35 000 in 2050. By the year 2050, the majority of stroke patients will be 75 years or older. The proportion of severely handicapped stroke patients will increase above average.

DISCUSSION

The projected increase in the number of stroke patients will require substantial changes in health care services unless the incidence of stroke falls in the future, e.g. as the result of improved primary prevention. The development of strategies to prevent stroke in elderly persons should be given a high priority from a health policy perspective.

Falls after stroke: results from the Auckland Regional Community Stroke (ARCOS) Study, 2002 to 2003

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Falls are an important issue in older people. We aimed to determine the incidence, circumstances, and predictors of falls in patients with recent acute stroke.

METHODS

The Auckland Regional Community Stroke (ARCOS) study was a prospective population-based stroke incidence study conducted in Auckland, New Zealand (NZ) during 2002 to 2003. Among 6-month survivors, the location and consequences of any falls were ascertained by self-report as part of a structured interview. Multivariable logistic regression was used to establish associations between risk factors and "any" and "injurious" falls.

RESULTS

Of 1104 stroke survivors who completed an interview, 407 (37%) reported at least 1 fall, 151 (37% of fallers, 14% of stroke survivors) sustained an injury that required medical treatment, and 31 (8% of fallers, 3% of stroke survivors) sustained a fracture. The majority of falls occurred indoors at home. Independent factors associated with falls were depressive symptoms, disability, previous falls, and older age. For injurious falls, the positively associated factors were female sex and NZ/European ethnicity and dependence before the stroke, whereas higher levels of activity and normal cognition were negatively associated factors.

CONCLUSIONS

Falls are common after stroke, and their predictive factors are similar to those for older people in general. Falls prevention programs require implementation in stroke services.

The influence of psychiatric morbidity on return to paid work after stroke in younger adults: the Auckland Regional Community Stroke (ARCOS) Study, 2002 to 2003

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Few data exist on the determinants of return to paid work after stroke, yet participation in employment is vital to a person's mental well-being and role in society. This study aimed to determine the frequency and determinants of return to work, in particular the effect of early psychiatric morbidity, in a population-based study of stroke survivors.

METHODS

The third Auckland Regional Community Stroke (ARCOS) study was a prospective, population-based, stroke incidence study undertaken in Auckland, New Zealand during 2002 to 2003. After a baseline assessment early after stroke, data were collected on all survivors at 1 and 6 months follow-up. Multiple variable logistic regression was used to determine predictors of return to paid work. Data are reported with odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI).

RESULTS

Among 1423 patients registered with first-ever strokes, there were 210 previously in paid employment who survived to 6 months, of whom 155 (74%) completed the GHQ-28 and 112 (53%) had returned to paid work. Among those cognitively competent, psychiatric morbidity at 28 days was a strong independent predictor of not returning to work (Odds Ratio 0.39; 95% CI 0.22 to 0.80). Non-New Zealand European ethnicity (OR 0.40; 95% CI 0.17 to 0.91), prior part-time, as opposed to full-time, employment 0.36 (0.15 to 0.89), and not being functionally independent soon after the stroke 0.28 (0.13 to 0.59) were the other independent age- and gender-adjusted predictors of not successfully returning to paid work.

CONCLUSIONS

About half of previously employed people return to paid employment after stroke, with psychiatric morbidity and physical disability being independent, yet potentially treatable, determinants of this outcome. Appropriate management of both emotional and physical sequelae would appear necessary for optimizing recovery and return to work in younger adults after stroke.

Stroke surveillance: population-based estimates and projections for New Zealand

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the incidence, prevalence and mortality of stroke in New Zealand (NZ) in 2001, projected to 2011.

METHODS

Multistate lifetable models were constructed using smoothed rates of first-ever stroke incidence and relative risks of mortality estimated from the most recent Auckland Regional Community Stroke (ARCOS) Study. Estimates of the burden of stroke in NZ were calculated by applying rates output by the model to the 2001 population. Stroke incidence, prevalence and mortality were then projected to 2011, assuming similar trends in stroke incidence and case fatality to those estimated between the 1991/92 and 2002/03 studies.

RESULTS

A total of 5,200 first-ever strokes were estimated to have occurred in NZ in 2001. Rates of stroke rose exponentially with increasing age and were 20% higher among males than females at most ages. Nevertheless, the lifetable risk of stroke was lower for males (16%) than females (18%). On average, males survived a year longer than females after a first-ever stroke (9.0 vs. 8.2 years). The incidence rates of first-ever stroke declined by approximately 1% per year between 1991 and 2003. The lifetable risk of stroke remained stable for females but increased for males (from 14% to 16%) over this period. Stroke prevalence also increased by approximately 1% per year, whereas stroke-related mortality fell by 4% per year. If these trends continue, approximately 6,000 first-ever strokes (2% annual increase), 45,000 stroke survivors (2% annual increase) and 2,000 stroke-related deaths (1% annual decline) are expected in 2011.

CONCLUSION

Stroke mortality is falling faster than stroke incidence. This, together with population growth and ageing, will lead to a rising burden of stroke-related disability over the next decade.

Long-term neuropsychological and functional outcomes in stroke survivors: current evidence and perspectives for new research

AIMS

To appraise the literature on long-term neuropsychological and functional outcomes in stroke survivors and identify the gaps, challenges and future research in this area.

BACKGROUND

Stroke care resources are scarce, and the number of stroke survivors is likely to increase with the ageing of the population. Thus, evaluating the cost, frequency and prognostic factors of long-terms stroke functional and neuropsychological outcomes is of paramount importance for evidence-based clinical decision making, including the rationale, planning, provision and allocation of health services, and the development of effective interventions. Summary of review Stroke has an enormous physical, emotional and economic impact on the patients, families and society. However, accurate data on frequency, relationship and predictors of various long-term functional (body functioning, activity and participation) outcomes and costs of stroke are scarce, and no accurate and comprehensive data exist on long-term neuropsychological outcomes and their relationships with other functional outcomes poststroke.

CONCLUSIONS

There is a lack of accurate data on the frequency, relationship and predictors of various long-term functional outcomes and costs of stroke. There is a pressing need for good-quality population-based studies for evaluating the frequency and prognostic factors of long-term functional and neuropsychological outcomes of stroke in various populations.

Stroke incidence and survival in the beginning of the 21st century in southern Sweden: comparisons with the late 20th century and projections into the future

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

We report trends of stroke incidence and survival up to year 2001/2002 in Lund-Orup, Sweden, and projections of future stroke incidence in Sweden.

METHODS

Lund Stroke Register, a prospective population-based study, included all first-ever stroke patients, between March 1, 2001 and February 28, 2002, in the Lund-Orup health care district. Institution-based studies for 1983 to 1985 and 1993 to 1995 were used for comparison. We calculated age-standardized incidence and Cox proportional hazards analysis of survival (stroke subtype, sex, age group, and study period in the analysis). Minimum follow-up was 46 months. Based on our register's stroke incidence and the official Swedish population projection, a projection for future stroke incidence on a national basis was calculated.

RESULTS

We included 456 patients with first-ever stroke in 2001/2002. The age-standardized incidence (to the European population) was 144 per 100 000 person-years (95%CI 130 to 158) in 2001/2002, 158 (95%CI 149 to 168) in 1993 to 1995, and 134 (95%CI 126 to 143) in 1983 to 1985. Cox proportional hazard analysis indicated decreased risk of death after stroke in 2001/2002 (hazard ratio 0.80; 95%CI 0.67 to 0.94) compared with 1993 to 1995. Up to year 2050, the annual number of new stroke patients in Sweden may increase by 59% based solely on demographic changes.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite possible underestimation of stroke incidence during the previous institution-based studies, the increased stroke incidence between 1983 to 1985 and 1993 to 1995 did not continue in 2001/2002. The long-term survival after stroke continues to improve. As the elderly population is growing in Sweden, stable incidence and increasing survival will result in a rapidly increasing prevalence of stroke patients in Sweden.

Decrease in the Stroke Case Fatality Rates in a French Population-Based Twenty-Year Study

BACKGROUND

The aim of the study was to estimate trends in stroke case fatality in a French population-based study over the last 20 years, and to compare trends in men and women.

METHODS

We prospectively ascertained first-ever strokes in a well-defined population-based study, from 1985 to 2004, in Dijon (France) (150,000 inhabitants). The study was both specific and exhaustive. The follow-up made it possible to analyze case fatality, according to stroke subtypes and sex.

RESULTS

From the ascertainment of 3,691 strokes divided in 1,920 cerebral infarcts from large artery atheroma, 725 cerebral infarcts from small perforating artery atheroma, 497 cardioembolic infarcts, 134 cerebral infarcts from undetermined mechanism, 341 primary cerebral hemorrhages and 74 subarachnoïd hemorrhages, we observed a significant decrease in 28-day case fatality rates of almost 25% (p = 0.03). Case fatality rates decreased in men aged >75 years (p = 0.01) and in women aged >75 years (p = 0.02) and >65 years (p = 0.03). The magnitude of the decrease was smaller in women but not significantly so. According to stroke subtypes, case fatality rates significantly decreased for small perforating artery infarct (p = 0.04) and for primary cerebral hemorrhage (p = 0.03). In multivariate regression analyses, hemorrhagic stroke, the first period of the study (1985-1989), blood hypertension, previous myocardial infarction and age <85 years had a negative effect.

CONCLUSION

This is the first population-based study using continuous ascertainment over a period of 20 years that has demonstrated a significant reduction in case fatality rates. We did not observe any significant differences between men and women.

The risk of recurrent stroke after intracerebral haemorrhage

BACKGROUND AND AIM

The risks of recurrent intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH) vary widely (0-24%). Patients with ICH also have risk factors for ischaemic stroke (IS) and a proportion of ICH survivors re-present with an IS. This dilemma has implications for prophylactic treatment. This study aims to determine the risk of recurrent stroke events (both ICH and IS) following an index bleed and whether ICH recurrence risk varies according to location of index bleed.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

All patients diagnosed with an acute ICH presenting over an 8.5 year period were identified. Each ICH was confirmed by reviewing all of the radiology results and, where necessary, the clinical case notes or post-mortem data. Recurrent stroke events (ICH and IS) were identified by reappearance of these patients in our stroke database. Coronal post-mortem results for the same period were also reviewed. Each recurrent event was reviewed to confirm the diagnosis and location of the stroke.

RESULTS

Of the 7686 stroke events recorded, 768 (10%) were ICH. In the follow-up period, there were 19 recurrent ICH and 17 new IS in the 464 patients who survived beyond the index hospital stay. Recurrence rate for ICH was 2.1/100 in the first year but 1.2/100/year overall. This compares with 1.3/100/year overall for IS. Most recurrences were "lobar-lobar" type.

CONCLUSION

The cumulative risk of recurrent ICH in this population is similar to that of IS after the first year.

Trends in risk factors, patterns and causes in hospitalized strokes over 25 years: The Lausanne Stroke Registry

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

The Lausanne Stroke Registry includes, from 1979, all patients admitted to the department of Neurology of the Lausanne University Hospital with the diagnosis of first clinical stroke. Using the Lausanne Stroke Registry, we aimed to determine trends in risk factors, causes, localization and inhospital mortality over 25 years in hospitalized stroke patients.

METHODS

We assessed temporal trends in stroke patients characteristics through the following consecutive periods: 1979-1987, 1988-1995 and 1996-2003. Age-adjusted cardiovascular risk factors, etiologies, stroke localizations and mortality were compared between the three periods.

RESULTS

Overall, 5,759 patients were included. Age was significantly different among the analyzed periods (p < 0.001), showing an increment in older patients throughout time. After adjustment for age, hypercholesterolemia increased (p < 0.001), as opposed to cigarette smoking (p < 0.001), hypertension (p < 0.001) and diabetes and hyperglycemia (p < 0.001). In patients with ischemic strokes, there were significant changes in the distribution of causes with an increase in cardioembolic strokes (p < 0.001), and in the localization of strokes with an increase in entire middle cerebral artery (MCA) and posterior circulation strokes together with a decrease in superficial middle cerebral artery stroke (p < 0.001). In patients with hemorrhagic strokes, the thalamic localizations increased, whereas the proportion of striatocapsular hemorrhage decreased (p = 0.022). Except in the older patient group, the mortality rate decreased.

CONCLUSIONS

This study shows major trends in the characteristics of stroke patients admitted to a department of neurology over a 25-year time span, which may result from referral biases, development of acute stroke management and possibly from the evolution of cerebrovascular risk factors.

The unchanging incidence and case-fatality of stroke in the 1990s: a population-based study

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Many advances were made in stroke prevention strategies during the 1990s, and yet temporal trends in stroke incidence and case-fatality have not been reported in the United States. Blacks have a 2-fold higher risk of stroke; however, there are no data over time showing if any progress has been made in reducing racial disparity in stroke incidence. The objective of this study was to examine temporal trends in stroke incidence and case-fatality within a large, biracial population during the 1990s.

METHODS

Within a biracial population of 1.3 million, all strokes were ascertained at all local hospitals using International Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision codes during July 1993 to June 1994 and again in 1999. A sampling scheme was used to ascertain cases in the out-of-hospital setting. Race-specific incidence and case-fatality rates were calculated and standardized to the 2000 US Census population. A population-based telephone survey regarding stroke risk factor prevalence and medication use was performed in 1995 and 2000.

RESULTS

There were 1954 first-ever strokes in 1993-1994 and 2063 first-ever strokes in 1999. The annual incidence of first-ever hospitalized stroke did not significantly change between study periods: 158 per 100,000 in both 1993-1994 and 1999 (P=0.97). Blacks continue to have higher stroke incidence than whites, especially in the young; however, case-fatality rates continue to be similar between races and are not changing over time. Medication use for treatment of stroke risk factors significantly increased in the general population between study periods.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite advances in stroke prevention treatments during the 1990s, the incidence of hospitalized stroke did not decrease within our population. Case-fatality also did not change between study periods. Excess stroke mortality rates seen in blacks nationally are likely the result of excess stroke incidence and not case-fatality, and the racial disparity in stroke incidence did not change over time.

The impact of neuropsychological deficits on functional stroke outcomes

This review examines the available literature on neuropsychological outcomes of stroke and the literature on the ability of specific areas of neuropsychological deficit to predict functional stroke outcome. The literature reviewed indicates that post-stroke deficits in executive function, memory, language, and speed of processing are common, with those identified as having progressive 'post-stroke dementia' presenting with a similar, though more impaired profile, with increased impairments particularly noted in the area of memory. It is clear that some aspects of neuropsychological functioning (e.g., presence of neglect, aphasia, anosognosia; and verbal memory and attention deficits) show promise as a means of predicting post-stroke functional outcomes. Examining the available literature, it becomes evident that there is a need for long-term, large scale (i.e., population based) follow-up studies, evaluating likely long-term neuropsychological outcomes of stroke and their prognostic utility.

Frequency, Management, and Predictors of Abnormal Mood After Stroke

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Mood disorders are an important consequence of stroke. We aimed to identify significant, clinically useful predictors of abnormal mood after stroke.

METHODS

The Auckland Regional Community Stroke (ARCOS) study was a prospective population-based stroke incidence study conducted in Auckland, New Zealand, over a 12-month period from 2002 to 2003. All patients were followed up 6 months after stroke onset and abnormal mood was assessed using the 28-item General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-28) administered as part of a structured telephone interview. Multivariate stepwise logistic regression was used to develop a predictive model for "caseness" (score of > or = 5 on the GHQ-28) based on several premorbid patient and clinical variables assessed at baseline and 28 days of follow up.

RESULTS

Of patients available at 6 months (n=1172), complete data on mood was available from 739 (60%) patients and 27% (95% confidence interval, 24 to 30%) were defined as cases. Key baseline predictors of abnormal mood were disability and history of depression after adjustment for sex, age, and comorbidity, but the model failed to predict a large amount of the variation in caseness (C statistic 0.587).

CONCLUSIONS

This study emphasizes the complex nature of mood disturbance after stroke and that multiple factors are likely to contribute to mood disorders. A simple, clinically applicable, predictive model in stroke care appears difficult to develop.

Ethnic disparities in incidence of stroke subtypes: Auckland Regional Community Stroke Study, 2002–2003

BACKGROUND

Limited population-based data exist on differences in the incidence of major pathological stroke types and ischaemic stroke subtypes across ethnic groups. We aimed to provide such data within the large multi-ethnic population of Auckland, New Zealand.

METHODS

All first-ever cases of stroke (n=1423) in a population-based register in 940 000 residents (aged 15 years) in Auckland, New Zealand, for a 12-month period in 2002-2003, were classified into ischaemic stroke, primary intracerebral haemorrhage (PICH), subarachnoid haemorrhage, and undetermined stroke, according to standard definitions and results of neuroimaging/necropsy (in over 90% of cases). Ischaemic stroke was further classified into five subtypes. Ethnicity was self-identified and grouped as New Zealand (NZ)/European, Maori/Pacific, and Asian/other. Incidence rates were standardised to the WHO world population by the direct method, and differences in rates between ethnic groups expressed as rate ratios (RRs), with NZ/European as the reference group.

FINDINGS

In NZ/European people, ischaemic stroke comprised 73%, PICH 11%, and subarachnoid haemorrhage 6%, but PICH was higher in Maori/Pacific people (17%) and in Asian/other people (22%). Compared with NZ/European people, age-adjusted RRs for PICH were 2.7 (95% CI 1.8-4.0) and 2.3 (95% CI 1.4-3.7) among Maori/Pacific and Asian/other people, respectively. The corresponding RR for ischaemic stroke was greater for Maori/Pacific people (1.7 [95% CI 1.4-2.0]), particularly embolic stroke, and for Asian/other people (1.3 [95% CI 1.0-1.7]). The onset of stroke in Maori/Pacific and Asian/other people began at significantly younger ages (62 years and 64 years, respectively) than in NZ/Europeans (75 years; p<0.0001). There were ethnic differences in the risk factor profiles (such as age, sex, hypertension, cardiac disease, diabetes, hypercholesterolaemia, smoking status, overweight) for the stroke types and subtypes.

INTERPRETATION

Compared to NZ/Europeans, Maori/Pacific and Asian/other people are at higher risk of ischaemic stroke and PICH, whereas similar rates of subarachnoid haemorrhage were evident across ethnic groups. The ethnic disparities in the rates of stroke types could be due to substantial differences found in risk factor profiles between ethnic groups. This information should be considered when planning prevention and stroke-care services in multi-ethnic communities.

Trends in Ethnic Disparities in Stroke Incidence in Auckland, New Zealand, During 1981 to 2003

Background and Purpose— Although geographical variations in stroke rates are well documented, limited data exist on temporal trends in ethnic-specific stroke incidence.

Methods— We assessed trends in ethnic-specific stroke rates using standard diagnostic criteria and community-wide surveillance procedures in Auckland, New Zealand (NZ) in 1981 to 1982, 1991 to 1992, and 2002 to 2003. Indirect and direct methods were used to adjust first-ever (incident) and total (attack) rates for changes in the structure of the population and reported with 95% CIs. Ethnicity was self-defined and categorized as “NZ/European,” “Maori,” “Pacific peoples,” and “Asian and other.”

Results— Stroke attack (19%; 95% CI, 11% to 26%) and incidence rates (19%; 95% CI, 12% to 24%) declined significantly in NZ/Europeans from 1981 to 1982 to 2002 to 2003. These rates remained high or increased in other ethnic groups, particularly for Pacific peoples in whom stroke attack rates increased by 66% (95% CI; 11% to 225%) over the periods. Some favorable downward trends in vascular risk factors, such as cigarette smoking, were counterbalanced by increasing age, body mass index, and diabetes in certain ethnic groups.

Conclusions— Divergent trends in ethnic-specific stroke incidence and attack rates, and of associated risk factors, have occurred in Auckland over recent decades. The findings provide mixed views as to the future burden of stroke in populations undergoing similar lifestyle and structural changes.